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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The worry for Nick Clegg is if moves like this in Nottingha

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  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    ToryJim said:

    BobaFett said:

    antifrank said:

    ToryJim said:

    BobaFett said:

    antifrank said:

    BobaFett said:

    @ToryJim

    Ed has so far been weird, weak and dangerous.

    Listening to that Tories anyone would think he was an oddly designed railway bridge.

    We get that you don't like that criticism.

    The public by and large agree with it though:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-british-public-still-think-ed-miliband-is-weird
    The PB Tories assured us that Ed's weirdness - and then his 'weird' apology - on the Sun sideshow would be a disaster for him.

    Not so according to Populus, which shows Labour's score rising.

    Polling vs PB Tory wishful thinking.
    Oh good grief.
    Leave him be. Comfort blankets are, well, comforting.

    It's a good job someone picks up the rebuttals. The Tory dominance on this site is now so overwhelming that it has long since ceased to be a decent resource for betting.
    Damn, didn't realise we were playing PB bingo.
    Instead of making waspish comments, why not engage with the point? Pulpstar and Mike himself have lamented the lack of balance on here. Hardly surprising since we are told off for "over posting" when merely pointing out poor predictions.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    BobaFett said:

    ToryJim said:

    BobaFett said:

    antifrank said:

    ToryJim said:

    BobaFett said:

    antifrank said:

    BobaFett said:

    @ToryJim

    Ed has so far been weird, weak and dangerous.

    Listening to that Tories anyone would think he was an oddly designed railway bridge.

    We get that you don't like that criticism.

    The public by and large agree with it though:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-british-public-still-think-ed-miliband-is-weird
    The PB Tories assured us that Ed's weirdness - and then his 'weird' apology - on the Sun sideshow would be a disaster for him.

    Not so according to Populus, which shows Labour's score rising.

    Polling vs PB Tory wishful thinking.
    Oh good grief.
    Leave him be. Comfort blankets are, well, comforting.

    It's a good job someone picks up the rebuttals. The Tory dominance on this site is now so overwhelming that it has long since ceased to be a decent resource for betting.
    Damn, didn't realise we were playing PB bingo.
    Instead of making waspish comments, why not engage with the point? Pulpstar and Mike himself have lamented the lack of balance on here. Hardly surprising since we are told off for "over posting" when merely pointing out poor predictions.
    The site doesn't seem unbalanced to me. People have different opinions, gut instincts, outlooks, etc.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    BobaFett said:


    Instead of making waspish comments, why not engage with the point? Pulpstar and Mike himself have lamented the lack of balance on here. Hardly surprising since we are told off for "over posting" when merely pointing out poor predictions.

    It's hardly Mike's fault that Labour supporters are demoralised or embarrassed or have nothing to say, so they don't post much.

    In contrast, Nats and Kippers are clearly enthusiastic and so post in greater numbers than you would expect.

    What this tells us about differential enthusiasm is actually quite useful information from a betting point of view.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    ToryJim said:

    BobaFett said:

    ToryJim said:

    BobaFett said:

    antifrank said:

    ToryJim said:

    BobaFett said:

    antifrank said:

    BobaFett said:

    @ToryJim

    Ed has so far been weird, weak and dangerous.

    Listening to that Tories anyone would think he was an oddly designed railway bridge.

    We get that you don't like that criticism.

    The public by and large agree with it though:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-british-public-still-think-ed-miliband-is-weird
    The PB Tories assured us that Ed's weirdness - and then his 'weird' apology - on the Sun sideshow would be a disaster for him.

    Not so according to Populus, which shows Labour's score rising.

    Polling vs PB Tory wishful thinking.
    Oh good grief.
    Leave him be. Comfort blankets are, well, comforting.

    It's a good job someone picks up the rebuttals. The Tory dominance on this site is now so overwhelming that it has long since ceased to be a decent resource for betting.
    Damn, didn't realise we were playing PB bingo.
    Instead of making waspish comments, why not engage with the point? Pulpstar and Mike himself have lamented the lack of balance on here. Hardly surprising since we are told off for "over posting" when merely pointing out poor predictions.
    The site doesn't seem unbalanced to me. People have different opinions, gut instincts, outlooks, etc.
    The site is massively Tory dominated. No doubt about it.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    As I remember, there were only 77 LD that voted in Cambridge on the Clegg issue.
    Only 77 active LD in one of the most liberal parts of Britain is a bad sign.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,622
    Speedy said:

    As I remember, there were only 77 LD that voted in Cambridge on the Clegg issue.
    Only 77 active LD in one of the most liberal parts of Britain is a bad sign.

    Was it during term time? Presumably half the local party (or more) will be students.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    A by-election in Portsmouth South which the LDs lose would probably be fatal for Clegg.

    Is a by-election that likely there? I know the issues etching but don't see a vast appetite for one
    Probably not, the local police have refused to investigate the scandal.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Moving away from this tiresome topic, house prices now appear to be falling. I can't decide whether this is bad news for the government or otherwise. Thoughts?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    As I remember, there were only 77 LD that voted in Cambridge on the Clegg issue.
    Only 77 active LD in one of the most liberal parts of Britain is a bad sign.

    Was it during term time? Presumably half the local party (or more) will be students.
    It was only 2 weeks ago.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    BobaFett said:

    Moving away from this tiresome topic, house prices now appear to be falling. I can't decide whether this is bad news for the government or otherwise. Thoughts?

    As always with house prices it depends on which figures you are looking at.
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516

    To think that when Scotland is an independent nation it will be able to appear in the World Cup

    Er! Please check, or have you been relying on your own Gunn to shoot off "facts"? Scotland has appeared in the World Cup, in '74, '78, '82,'86,'90 and last time in 1998, and will again in 2018 with Alec Salmond scoring the winning goal against Brazil in the final.

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    @BobaFett‌
    I've just suggested there is doubt. To me there seems plenty of representation from all threads of opinion. Of course I sometimes in the midst of threads begin to think that other persuasions are dominant, but that is often because my points are being challenged. I maintain that the site is broadly balanced, though and one of the best places to argue because of that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,622
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    As I remember, there were only 77 LD that voted in Cambridge on the Clegg issue.
    Only 77 active LD in one of the most liberal parts of Britain is a bad sign.

    Was it during term time? Presumably half the local party (or more) will be students.
    It was only 2 weeks ago.
    During May week?

    You'd be lucky to get a student to vote on moving pub, let alone a theoretical recall of Nick Clegg.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    BobaFett said:


    Instead of making waspish comments, why not engage with the point? Pulpstar and Mike himself have lamented the lack of balance on here. Hardly surprising since we are told off for "over posting" when merely pointing out poor predictions.

    It's hardly Mike's fault that Labour supporters are demoralised or embarrassed or have nothing to say, so they don't post much.

    In contrast, Nats and Kippers are clearly enthusiastic and so post in greater numbers than you would expect.

    What this tells us about differential enthusiasm is actually quite useful information from a betting point of view.
    I'm not blaming Mike! Actually UKPR has the same problem in reverse. So Labour dominated is it, it's ceased to be much use for political insight. Perhaps the two sites could do a spy-swap as in the Cold War? :-)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704


    It's hardly Mike's fault that Labour supporters are demoralised or embarrassed or have nothing to say, so they don't post much.

    Maybe they are just busier working. ;-)


    In contrast, Nats and Kippers are clearly enthusiastic and so post in greater numbers than you would expect.

    Don't confuse volume for quality.


    What this tells us about differential enthusiasm is actually quite useful information from a betting point of view.

    Says virtually nothing about enthusiasm.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    A by-election in Portsmouth South which the LDs lose would probably be fatal for Clegg.

    Is a by-election that likely there? I know the issues etching but don't see a vast appetite for one
    There doesn't appear to be much chance of a by-election. The only recent development is that Mike Hancock's son was convicted a few days ago of attacking a press photographer:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-27833570
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Ishmael_X said:

    BobaFett said:

    antifrank said:

    BobaFett said:

    @ToryJim

    Ed has so far been weird, weak and dangerous.

    Listening to that Tories anyone would think he was an oddly designed railway bridge.

    We get that you don't like that criticism.

    The public by and large agree with it though:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-british-public-still-think-ed-miliband-is-weird
    The PB Tories assured us that Ed's weirdness - and then his 'weird' apology - on the Sun sideshow would be a disaster for him.

    Not so according to Populus, which shows Labour's score rising.

    Polling vs PB Tory wishful thinking.
    You are channeling tim, and over-posting.
    Unnecessary use of the word "channeling"
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    As I remember, there were only 77 LD that voted in Cambridge on the Clegg issue.
    Only 77 active LD in one of the most liberal parts of Britain is a bad sign.

    Was it during term time? Presumably half the local party (or more) will be students.
    It was only 2 weeks ago.
    During May week?

    You'd be lucky to get a student to vote on moving pub, let alone a theoretical recall of Nick Clegg.
    It was the beginning of June when they voted.

    It's good times to be a diplomat today.

    The Associated Press @AP · 27m
    BREAKING: Kerry: US open to talks with Iran over Iraq, won't rule out military cooperation.

    http://bigstory.ap.org/article/kerry-us-open-talks-iran-over-iraq

    America going from Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran to HELP HELP HELP!
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    BobaFett said:

    Moving away from this tiresome topic, house prices now appear to be falling. I can't decide whether this is bad news for the government or otherwise. Thoughts?

    Whether or not it is good for the government, if house prices are really falling then that is very good news for the country as a whole. From the peak of the last boom house prices had to drop by 50% to get back to long term trend and affordability. That didn't happen (wasn't allowed to happen?) and so still too much money is tied up in unproductive assets.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    BobaFett said:

    ToryJim said:

    BobaFett said:

    ToryJim said:

    BobaFett said:

    antifrank said:

    ToryJim said:

    BobaFett said:

    antifrank said:

    BobaFett said:

    @ToryJim

    Ed has so far been weird, weak and dangerous.

    Listening to that Tories anyone would think he was an oddly designed railway bridge.

    We get that you don't like that criticism.

    The public by and large agree with it though:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-british-public-still-think-ed-miliband-is-weird
    The PB Tories assured us that Ed's weirdness - and then his 'weird' apology - on the Sun sideshow would be a disaster for him.

    Not so according to Populus, which shows Labour's score rising.

    Polling vs PB Tory wishful thinking.
    Oh good grief.
    Leave him be. Comfort blankets are, well, comforting.

    It's a good job someone picks up the rebuttals. The Tory dominance on this site is now so overwhelming that it has long since ceased to be a decent resource for betting.
    Damn, didn't realise we were playing PB bingo.
    Instead of making waspish comments, why not engage with the point? Pulpstar and Mike himself have lamented the lack of balance on here. Hardly surprising since we are told off for "over posting" when merely pointing out poor predictions.
    The site doesn't seem unbalanced to me. People have different opinions, gut instincts, outlooks, etc.
    The site is massively Tory dominated. No doubt about it.

    Reminds me of Michael Flanders' waspish comment on the Corporation of London:

    "They're completely apolitical. They all vote Conservative"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Just laid the draw at 1.14

    Some wickets please England !
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    A by-election in Portsmouth South which the LDs lose would probably be fatal for Clegg.

    Is a by-election that likely there? I know the issues etching but don't see a vast appetite for one
    There doesn't appear to be much chance of a by-election. The only recent development is that Mike Hancock's son was convicted a few days ago of attacking a press photographer:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-27833570
    Isn't Mr Hancock senior currently in a clinic of some kind? If he's ill, that can lead to a by-election.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986
    BobaFett said:


    The site is massively Tory dominated. No doubt about it.

    The anti-Labour and anti-Liberal Democrat groups are larger than the anti-UKIP group which is in turn larger than the anti-Conservative group. The main change on this site and it really began with the onset of the recession is that those who support one Party see nothing positive in any of the other parties. They are uncritical adherents of their own side and vitriolic critics of every aspect of the other sides. It has become partisan.

    I remember being able to discuss politics with the likes of Sean F, Marcus, David H and others and we all admitted our respective parties had faults and failings. That seems to be gone now and it's a regret. Even Sean T, who used to be witty and ascerbic, has degenerated into a right-wing caricature of his former glory.

    On to more important matters and as I have a busy couple of days coming up, a few thoughts on Ascot tomorrow and Wednesday. The Queen Anne should go to TORONADO but it's his seasonal bow and we simply don't know if he has retained his form so I wouldn't be playing at 10/11. The French horse ANODIN interests me e/w at 16s - he wouldn't be the first French horse to improve for quicker ground.

    The King's Stand is essentially a re-run of last year with the added factor of some useful sprinting 3-y-o such as HOT STREAK. I'm not going to have a bet but if I found a tenner in the street tomorrow morning, I might back SOLE POWER who we know goes on the track.

    The St James's Palace is the highlight of day one by some way. I wouldn't rush to back KINGMAN at odds-on and it's not often a Guineas winner comes to this race as second favourite so NIGHT OF THUNDER has a lot going for him at 9/4. TOORMORE will be a lot closer than he was at Newmarket and he'd be my saver at 8/1 but obviously with only seven it's not an e/w race.

    As for the Prince of Wales on Wednesday, I hope we see TREVE as the champion she looked last October in Paris but I won't back her - I quite like DANK each-way as long as the eight all run.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,622

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    A by-election in Portsmouth South which the LDs lose would probably be fatal for Clegg.

    Is a by-election that likely there? I know the issues etching but don't see a vast appetite for one
    There doesn't appear to be much chance of a by-election. The only recent development is that Mike Hancock's son was convicted a few days ago of attacking a press photographer:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-27833570
    Isn't Mr Hancock senior currently in a clinic of some kind? If he's ill, that can lead to a by-election.
    It would be a very exciting by-election :-)

    UKIP would have a great chance but...
    The LibDem organisation in Portsmouth is still quite strong...

    I'd reckon UKIP would be (narrow) favourites.

    But Mr Hancock is not going to resign. And I haven't heard him being so ill that death was on the cards. (And if he were to pass after October, I don't think we'd have a by-election, anyway).

    Come 2015, Portsmouth South could well be a fascinating four-way marginal. I'd expect to see the Libs (who are still have the most council seats in the constituency) to garner 30%, Labour and Cons to be around 25%, and UKIP on 20%.

    But that's based on the LibDems being on 14% nationwide. If they're on 12% they'd probably lose the seat.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    A by-election in Portsmouth South which the LDs lose would probably be fatal for Clegg.

    Is a by-election that likely there? I know the issues etching but don't see a vast appetite for one
    There doesn't appear to be much chance of a by-election. The only recent development is that Mike Hancock's son was convicted a few days ago of attacking a press photographer:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-27833570
    Isn't Mr Hancock senior currently in a clinic of some kind? If he's ill, that can lead to a by-election.
    It would be a very exciting by-election :-)

    UKIP would have a great chance but...
    The LibDem organisation in Portsmouth is still quite strong...

    I'd reckon UKIP would be (narrow) favourites.

    But Mr Hancock is not going to resign. And I haven't heard him being so ill that death was on the cards. (And if he were to pass after October, I don't think we'd have a by-election, anyway).

    Come 2015, Portsmouth South could well be a fascinating four-way marginal. I'd expect to see the Libs (who are still have the most council seats in the constituency) to garner 30%, Labour and Cons to be around 25%, and UKIP on 20%.

    But that's based on the LibDems being on 14% nationwide. If they're on 12% they'd probably lose the seat.
    So you don't see any negative impact from the particular circumstances of the current incumbent?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    stodge said:

    BobaFett said:


    The site is massively Tory dominated. No doubt about it.

    The anti-Labour and anti-Liberal Democrat groups are larger than the anti-UKIP group which is in turn larger than the anti-Conservative group. The main change on this site and it really began with the onset of the recession is that those who support one Party see nothing positive in any of the other parties. They are uncritical adherents of their own side and vitriolic critics of every aspect of the other sides. It has become partisan.

    I remember being able to discuss politics with the likes of Sean F, Marcus, David H and others and we all admitted our respective parties had faults and failings. That seems to be gone now and it's a regret. Even Sean T, who used to be witty and ascerbic, has degenerated into a right-wing caricature of his former glory.

    On to more important matters and as I have a busy couple of days coming up, a few thoughts on Ascot tomorrow and Wednesday. The Queen Anne should go to TORONADO but it's his seasonal bow and we simply don't know if he has retained his form so I wouldn't be playing at 10/11. The French horse ANODIN interests me e/w at 16s - he wouldn't be the first French horse to improve for quicker ground.

    The King's Stand is essentially a re-run of last year with the added factor of some useful sprinting 3-y-o such as HOT STREAK. I'm not going to have a bet but if I found a tenner in the street tomorrow morning, I might back SOLE POWER who we know goes on the track.

    The St James's Palace is the highlight of day one by some way. I wouldn't rush to back KINGMAN at odds-on and it's not often a Guineas winner comes to this race as second favourite so NIGHT OF THUNDER has a lot going for him at 9/4. TOORMORE will be a lot closer than he was at Newmarket and he'd be my saver at 8/1 but obviously with only seven it's not an e/w race.

    As for the Prince of Wales on Wednesday, I hope we see TREVE as the champion she looked last October in Paris but I won't back her - I quite like DANK each-way as long as the eight all run.
    My party at the time is now my former party.

    However, my current party, UKIP, certainly has plenty of faults.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited June 2014
    Ugh. This reads like propaganda from a fictional dystopian state.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27813535

    "But so long as everyone knew they were being monitored and understood what for, I don't see why it should be such a terrifying idea" ... "Far from making work less civilised, the arrival of Big Brother could make it more so."
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    BobaFett said:

    antifrank said:

    BobaFett said:

    @ToryJim

    Ed has so far been weird, weak and dangerous.

    Listening to that Tories anyone would think he was an oddly designed railway bridge.

    We get that you don't like that criticism.

    The public by and large agree with it though:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-british-public-still-think-ed-miliband-is-weird
    The PB Tories assured us that Ed's weirdness - and then his 'weird' apology - on the Sun sideshow would be a disaster for him.

    Not so according to Populus, which shows Labour's score rising.

    Polling vs PB Tory wishful thinking.
    The problem is that Ed Milliband is very poorly rated by the public. That may not necessarily be fatal to Labour (depending on how the non-Labour vote splits, Labour might form a government with 31% of the vote) but it certainly makes Labour's task far harder.

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Anorak said:

    Ugh. This reads like propaganda from a fictional dystopian state.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27813535

    "But so long as everyone knew they were being monitored and understood what for, I don't see why it should be such a terrifying idea" ... "Far from making work less civilised, the arrival of Big Brother could make it more so."

    Wow that article is so wrong on almost every level. The author needs to go have a long lie down in a very dark room.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Anorak said:

    Ugh. This reads like propaganda from a fictional dystopian state.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27813535

    "But so long as everyone knew they were being monitored and understood what for, I don't see why it should be such a terrifying idea" ... "Far from making work less civilised, the arrival of Big Brother could make it more so."

    I'd like some of what she's smoking.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Mike Hancock lost his Portsmouth council seat a few weeks ago, coming third behind UKIP and Labour.

    He'd represented it since 1973:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-27508457
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,622
    edited June 2014
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    A by-election in Portsmouth South which the LDs lose would probably be fatal for Clegg.

    Is a by-election that likely there? I know the issues etching but don't see a vast appetite for one
    There doesn't appear to be much chance of a by-election. The only recent development is that Mike Hancock's son was convicted a few days ago of attacking a press photographer:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-27833570
    Isn't Mr Hancock senior currently in a clinic of some kind? If he's ill, that can lead to a by-election.
    It would be a very exciting by-election :-)

    UKIP would have a great chance but...
    The LibDem organisation in Portsmouth is still quite strong...

    I'd reckon UKIP would be (narrow) favourites.

    But Mr Hancock is not going to resign. And I haven't heard him being so ill that death was on the cards. (And if he were to pass after October, I don't think we'd have a by-election, anyway).

    Come 2015, Portsmouth South could well be a fascinating four-way marginal. I'd expect to see the Libs (who are still have the most council seats in the constituency) to garner 30%, Labour and Cons to be around 25%, and UKIP on 20%.

    But that's based on the LibDems being on 14% nationwide. If they're on 12% they'd probably lose the seat.
    So you don't see any negative impact from the particular circumstances of the current incumbent?
    I was working on the theory that the current incumbent won't be standing in 2015.

    Portsmouth South LibDems did OK in May, keeping three of the four seats they held in the constituency (the one where they lost was where Mike Hancock was standing!). If you count Hancock as a LibDem (as they didn't stand against him in this seat), then these were the results:
    	               UKIP	Lab	Con	LibDem
    Central Southsea 574 542 597 1078
    Charles Dickens 940 706 326 913
    Eastney & Cransewater 574 372 1550 1104
    Fratton 903 754 498 628
    Milton 887 770 759 1096
    St Jude 395 382 1166 843
    St Thoma 560 514 1069 1233

    4833 4040 5965 6895
    Gah! Getting preformatted text in properly sucks.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    A by-election in Portsmouth South which the LDs lose would probably be fatal for Clegg.

    Is a by-election that likely there? I know the issues etching but don't see a vast appetite for one
    There doesn't appear to be much chance of a by-election. The only recent development is that Mike Hancock's son was convicted a few days ago of attacking a press photographer:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-27833570
    Isn't Mr Hancock senior currently in a clinic of some kind? If he's ill, that can lead to a by-election.
    It would be a very exciting by-election :-)

    UKIP would have a great chance but...
    The LibDem organisation in Portsmouth is still quite strong...

    I'd reckon UKIP would be (narrow) favourites.

    But Mr Hancock is not going to resign. And I haven't heard him being so ill that death was on the cards. (And if he were to pass after October, I don't think we'd have a by-election, anyway).

    Come 2015, Portsmouth South could well be a fascinating four-way marginal. I'd expect to see the Libs (who are still have the most council seats in the constituency) to garner 30%, Labour and Cons to be around 25%, and UKIP on 20%.

    But that's based on the LibDems being on 14% nationwide. If they're on 12% they'd probably lose the seat.
    BAe's decisions about shipbuilding in Portsmouth to which both the Lib Dems and Conservatives have acquiesced with barely a yip would surely have an effect on any by-election and, for that matter, at the GE next year.

    If there was a by-election then my money would be on UKIP. At the 2015 GE I am less sure but on balance I'd probably go for a Labour win with UKIP a close second.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @isam‌
    Am I Tim, Bobajob, the Last Boy Scout or someone else? I lose track with you as you have suggested I am all and none of them over the years ;-)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ToryJim said:

    Anorak said:

    Ugh. This reads like propaganda from a fictional dystopian state.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27813535

    "But so long as everyone knew they were being monitored and understood what for, I don't see why it should be such a terrifying idea" ... "Far from making work less civilised, the arrival of Big Brother could make it more so."

    Wow that article is so wrong on almost every level. The author needs to go have a long lie down in a very dark room.
    To put it in context, Lucy writes purely on "management topics" so doesn't really focus on the philosophical aspect that are - I assume - the basis of your concerns. She's pretty level headed (most of the time). I did like this comment though:

    In most offices a raft of mainly pointless, cumbersome tools are used to assess performance, including "competency matrices", appraisal interviews and psychometric testing. Together they are so ineffective that according to a delightful piece of research by the University of Catania, companies would be no worse off if they promoted people at random. </>

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037843710900822X
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Re: Mike Hancock
    "...a High Court hearing over the civil case lodged by Mr Hancock’s alleged victim is no longer happening on Monday while discussions take place over a potential settlement and an apology by the MP. An announcement is expected to be made within days about the future of the civil proceedings."

    http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/voters-in-portsmouth-south-snub-mike-hancock-and-turn-to-penny-mordaunt-1-6117096
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @HurstLlama‌

    I think I agree.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    From your link

    Greenpeace says the staff member, who worked in its international finance unit, was not acting for personal gain but failed to obtain authorisation from senior management. He has since been released from his contract.

    Is "released from your contract" the latest euphemism?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Charles said:

    ToryJim said:

    Anorak said:

    Ugh. This reads like propaganda from a fictional dystopian state.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27813535

    "But so long as everyone knew they were being monitored and understood what for, I don't see why it should be such a terrifying idea" ... "Far from making work less civilised, the arrival of Big Brother could make it more so."

    Wow that article is so wrong on almost every level. The author needs to go have a long lie down in a very dark room.
    To put it in context, Lucy writes purely on "management topics" so doesn't really focus on the philosophical aspect that are - I assume - the basis of your concerns. She's pretty level headed (most of the time). I did like this comment though:

    In most offices a raft of mainly pointless, cumbersome tools are used to assess performance, including "competency matrices", appraisal interviews and psychometric testing. Together they are so ineffective that according to a delightful piece of research by the University of Catania, companies would be no worse off if they promoted people at random. </>

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037843710900822X
    Yes that was sensible, the amount of time and effort that goes into performance reviews and the like are massively disproportionate to their utility.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Mike Hancock may stand again at the next general election even if he is excluded from doing so under a Lib Dem banner. If so, Portsmouth South could be a five way marginal.

    When was the last time that five different candidates had serious prospects of success?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    A by-election in Portsmouth South which the LDs lose would probably be fatal for Clegg.

    Is a by-election that likely there? I know the issues etching but don't see a vast appetite for one
    There doesn't appear to be much chance of a by-election. The only recent development is that Mike Hancock's son was convicted a few days ago of attacking a press photographer:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-27833570
    Isn't Mr Hancock senior currently in a clinic of some kind? If he's ill, that can lead to a by-election.
    It would be a very exciting by-election :-)

    UKIP would have a great chance but...
    The LibDem organisation in Portsmouth is still quite strong...

    I'd reckon UKIP would be (narrow) favourites.

    But Mr Hancock is not going to resign. And I haven't heard him being so ill that death was on the cards. (And if he were to pass after October, I don't think we'd have a by-election, anyway).

    Come 2015, Portsmouth South could well be a fascinating four-way marginal. I'd expect to see the Libs (who are still have the most council seats in the constituency) to garner 30%, Labour and Cons to be around 25%, and UKIP on 20%.

    But that's based on the LibDems being on 14% nationwide. If they're on 12% they'd probably lose the seat.
    So you don't see any negative impact from the particular circumstances of the current incumbent?
    I was working on the theory that the current incumbent won't be standing in 2015.

    Portsmouth South LibDems did OK in May, keeping three of the four seats they held in the constituency (the one where they lost was where Mike Hancock was standing!). If you count Hancock as a LibDem (as they didn't stand against him in this seat), then these were the results:
    	               UKIP	Lab	Con	LibDem
    Central Southsea 574 542 597 1078
    Charles Dickens 940 706 326 913
    Eastney & Cransewater 574 372 1550 1104
    Fratton 903 754 498 628
    Milton 887 770 759 1096
    St Jude 395 382 1166 843
    St Thoma 560 514 1069 1233

    4833 4040 5965 6895
    Gah! Getting preformatted text in properly sucks.
    I assume he's not standing - question is whether the loss of incumbency will have an impact, although partially offset by the strong local presence. Locals suggest, though, that any "negative personal vote" will be restricted to the individual rather than the party
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    A by-election in Portsmouth South which the LDs lose would probably be fatal for Clegg.

    Is a by-election that likely there? I know the issues etching but don't see a vast appetite for one
    There doesn't appear to be much chance of a by-election. The only recent development is that Mike Hancock's son was convicted a few days ago of attacking a press photographer:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-27833570
    Isn't Mr Hancock senior currently in a clinic of some kind? If he's ill, that can lead to a by-election.
    It would be a very exciting by-election :-)

    UKIP would have a great chance but...
    The LibDem organisation in Portsmouth is still quite strong...

    I'd reckon UKIP would be (narrow) favourites.

    But Mr Hancock is not going to resign. And I haven't heard him being so ill that death was on the cards. (And if he were to pass after October, I don't think we'd have a by-election, anyway).

    Come 2015, Portsmouth South could well be a fascinating four-way marginal. I'd expect to see the Libs (who are still have the most council seats in the constituency) to garner 30%, Labour and Cons to be around 25%, and UKIP on 20%.

    But that's based on the LibDems being on 14% nationwide. If they're on 12% they'd probably lose the seat.
    BAe's decisions about shipbuilding in Portsmouth to which both the Lib Dems and Conservatives have acquiesced with barely a yip would surely have an effect on any by-election and, for that matter, at the GE next year.

    If there was a by-election then my money would be on UKIP. At the 2015 GE I am less sure but on balance I'd probably go for a Labour win with UKIP a close second.
    I think the LDs 'won' Portsmouth South in the May elections. UKIP were stronger in Portsmouth North.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    BobaFett said:

    @isam‌
    Am I Tim, Bobajob, the Last Boy Scout or someone else? I lose track with you as you have suggested I am all and none of them over the years ;-)

    Two out of three aint bad.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,622

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    A by-election in Portsmouth South which the LDs lose would probably be fatal for Clegg.

    Is a by-election that likely there? I know the issues etching but don't see a vast appetite for one
    There doesn't appear to be much chance of a by-election. The only recent development is that Mike Hancock's son was convicted a few days ago of attacking a press photographer:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-27833570
    Isn't Mr Hancock senior currently in a clinic of some kind? If he's ill, that can lead to a by-election.
    It would be a very exciting by-election :-)

    UKIP would have a great chance but...
    The LibDem organisation in Portsmouth is still quite strong...

    I'd reckon UKIP would be (narrow) favourites.

    But Mr Hancock is not going to resign. And I haven't heard him being so ill that death was on the cards. (And if he were to pass after October, I don't think we'd have a by-election, anyway).

    Come 2015, Portsmouth South could well be a fascinating four-way marginal. I'd expect to see the Libs (who are still have the most council seats in the constituency) to garner 30%, Labour and Cons to be around 25%, and UKIP on 20%.

    But that's based on the LibDems being on 14% nationwide. If they're on 12% they'd probably lose the seat.
    BAe's decisions about shipbuilding in Portsmouth to which both the Lib Dems and Conservatives have acquiesced with barely a yip would surely have an effect on any by-election and, for that matter, at the GE next year.

    If there was a by-election then my money would be on UKIP. At the 2015 GE I am less sure but on balance I'd probably go for a Labour win with UKIP a close second.
    I think the LDs 'won' Portsmouth South in the May elections. UKIP were stronger in Portsmouth North.
    That's exactly right.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited June 2014
    SeanT said:

    Stodge


    "Even Sean T, who used to be witty and ascerbic, has degenerated into a right-wing caricature of his former glory."

    Funnily enough, I can't remember you ever saying I was "glorious" at the time, if anything, I recall the opposite.

    If my standard of commentary has descended on here it's cause

    1. I'm slightly bored of the site (no offence to OGH, it's just the cycle of life)
    2. I now get paid to come up with bon mots elsewhere, why give 'em away for free here
    3. I am now rich and surrounded by comely young women, this is a distraction
    4. Being rich and surrounded by comely young women makes a man less grumpy, so maybe I am less acerbic for that reason
    5. WHO GIVES A FECK WHAT YOU THINK ANYWAY, YOU HAPLESS DILDO


    Nonetheless, as a more neutral observer who visits the site much less often than I did, I can't say it has changed much. It's been vaguely proTory since i joined in about 2005, yet it remains a valuable and very interesting website, one of the few places where you can hear articulate opinions of all persuasions, plus stuff about trains, God and Carthaginian war strategy.

    Long may pb endure.


    Talking of trains, I haven't heard from @JosiasJessop recently?
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @‌ pulpstar

    Sam is the odds-setter, ask him ;-)
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    ToryJim said:

    Charles said:

    ToryJim said:

    Anorak said:

    Ugh. This reads like propaganda from a fictional dystopian state.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27813535

    "But so long as everyone knew they were being monitored and understood what for, I don't see why it should be such a terrifying idea" ... "Far from making work less civilised, the arrival of Big Brother could make it more so."

    Wow that article is so wrong on almost every level. The author needs to go have a long lie down in a very dark room.
    To put it in context, Lucy writes purely on "management topics" so doesn't really focus on the philosophical aspect that are - I assume - the basis of your concerns. She's pretty level headed (most of the time). I did like this comment though:

    In most offices a raft of mainly pointless, cumbersome tools are used to assess performance, including "competency matrices", appraisal interviews and psychometric testing. Together they are so ineffective that according to a delightful piece of research by the University of Catania, companies would be no worse off if they promoted people at random. </>

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037843710900822X
    Yes that was sensible, the amount of time and effort that goes into performance reviews and the like are massively disproportionate to their utility.
    You miss the point of such things. They are not there to enhance the performance of the organisation. No. No. They exist to enhance the the power of the Human Resources Department. It is all part of the march of the B Ark people, which is slowly but surely destroying our ability to compete and survive.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited June 2014
    BobaFett said:



    The site is massively Tory dominated. No doubt about it.

    No it's not. Looking at the people posting below me:

    Charles - Tory
    rcs1000 - Swing voter
    Neil - Green
    anotherDave - UKIP (?)
    antifrank - Swing voter
    SeanT - probably votes Tory
    PulpStar - not sure
    BobaFett - Labour
    HurstLlama - UKIP
    ToryJim - Tory
    Sean Fear - UKIP
    stodge - Lib Dem
    Speedy - Labour

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    SeanT said:

    5. WHO GIVES A FECK WHAT YOU THINK ANYWAY, YOU HAPLESS DILDO

    Half-hearted vitriol. Clearly far too much sex being had. Possibly even whilst composing that last lazy post.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,622
    SeanT said:

    Actually, before I disappear to go do SOME PROPER PAID WRITING (NB, STODGE), I have an observation to make with POTENTIAL BETTING IMPLICATIONS.

    The odds on the indyref seem out of whack with the latest polls.

    The three most recent polls - Survation, ICM and Panelbase - all have YES within striking distance of victory.

    Now, personally, I believe NO will win, but it will be close, and closer than I would have said two weeks ago, and way closer than I would have said a year ago.

    Yet some of the odds on NO winning have it as practically a dead cert: 1/7 Boyle Express, 1/6 Coral, 1/6 William Hill.

    Conversely, some of the odds on YES seem a tad generous, given the narrowing polls: 4/1 Boyleexpress, 7/2 Bet Victor, 7/2 Paddypower.

    Just an observation for the wagerly-minded.

    And now, to work.

    Hey Sean, if you want 4/1, I'll give you it. Drop me an email with your stake size
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    ToryJim said:

    Charles said:

    ToryJim said:

    Anorak said:

    Ugh. This reads like propaganda from a fictional dystopian state.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27813535

    "But so long as everyone knew they were being monitored and understood what for, I don't see why it should be such a terrifying idea" ... "Far from making work less civilised, the arrival of Big Brother could make it more so."

    Wow that article is so wrong on almost every level. The author needs to go have a long lie down in a very dark room.
    To put it in context, Lucy writes purely on "management topics" so doesn't really focus on the philosophical aspect that are - I assume - the basis of your concerns. She's pretty level headed (most of the time). I did like this comment though:

    In most offices a raft of mainly pointless, cumbersome tools are used to assess performance, including "competency matrices", appraisal interviews and psychometric testing. Together they are so ineffective that according to a delightful piece of research by the University of Catania, companies would be no worse off if they promoted people at random. </>

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037843710900822X
    Yes that was sensible, the amount of time and effort that goes into performance reviews and the like are massively disproportionate to their utility.
    You miss the point of such things. They are not there to enhance the performance of the organisation. No. No. They exist to enhance the the power of the Human Resources Department. It is all part of the march of the B Ark people, which is slowly but surely destroying our ability to compete and survive.
    Well quite. My last review had 27 pages of objectives. The first of which was the ironic "ensure achievable objectives"
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Plenty of us get paid for writing. Some of us, however, do it for much smaller audiences.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited June 2014
    antifrank said:

    Plenty of us get paid for writing. Some of us, however, do it for much smaller audiences.

    And I suspect the influence of the audience matters more than the size...

    I also find it amusing that Sean thinks that having sex with an attractive member of the opposite sex is something unique to him.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    antifrank said:

    Plenty of us get paid for writing. Some of us, however, do it for much smaller audiences.

    BTW Thanks again for your excellent articles on the constituencies. Much food for thought.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Anecdote alert: my other half over the weekend announced unprompted "that for the first time in my life I'm considering not voting for the Conservatives at the general election". This came as a surprise to me because I'd always vaguely got the impression that he was a rather unusual Lib Dem - we don't really talk much about politics.

    His rationale? The screw-up over the passports, which he considered unacceptable in this day and age.

    He did not disclose who he was considering voting for.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    Stodge


    "Even Sean T, who used to be witty and ascerbic, has degenerated into a right-wing caricature of his former glory."

    Funnily enough, I can't remember you ever saying I was "glorious" at the time, if anything, I recall the opposite.

    If my standard of commentary has descended on here it's cause

    1. I'm slightly bored of the site (no offence to OGH, it's just the cycle of life)
    2. I now get paid to come up with bon mots elsewhere, why give 'em away for free here
    3. I am now rich and surrounded by comely young women, this is a distraction
    4. Being rich and surrounded by comely young women makes a man less grumpy, so maybe I am less acerbic for that reason
    5. WHO GIVES A FECK WHAT YOU THINK ANYWAY, YOU HAPLESS DILDO


    Nonetheless, as a more neutral observer who visits the site much less often than I did, I can't say it has changed much. It's been vaguely proTory since i joined in about 2005, yet it remains a valuable and very interesting website, one of the few places where you can hear articulate opinions of all persuasions, plus stuff about trains, God and Carthaginian war strategy.

    Long may pb endure.


    Talking of trains, I haven't heard from @JosiasJessop recently?
    Does anyone have an email for Mr. Jessop. If so could they please check that he is OK?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    antifrank said:

    Anecdote alert: my other half over the weekend announced unprompted "that for the first time in my life I'm considering not voting for the Conservatives at the general election". This came as a surprise to me because I'd always vaguely got the impression that he was a rather unusual Lib Dem - we don't really talk much about politics.

    His rationale? The screw-up over the passports, which he considered unacceptable in this day and age.

    He did not disclose who he was considering voting for.

    The People's Army!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    ToryJim said:

    @BobaFett‌
    I've just suggested there is doubt. To me there seems plenty of representation from all threads of opinion. Of course I sometimes in the midst of threads begin to think that other persuasions are dominant, but that is often because my points are being challenged. I maintain that the site is broadly balanced, though and one of the best places to argue because of that.

    Broadly agree with that - there are somewhat more Tories and Kippers than in the public at large, but I don't really feel under siege. And there's a fair amount of self-criticism around - Richard Tyndall is openly sceptical about aspects of UKIP to the point that I wonder if he'll stay with them, David Herdson is rarely seriously partisan, Southam Observer eyes Labour with sombre lack of enthusiasm, and I murmur something discreetly off-message now and then (disagreed with the Juncker policy today). There are a few Tory trolls like ScottP and Moniker (who endearingly pursues his Euroscepticism from his home in Italy), which give the impression of more bias than there is.We could do with a SLAB and a Plaid contributor though.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    The most important factor in Portsmouth South and North ( for that matter ) next year will be the fate of the minority Conservative administration which foolishly took over control of the council after May's elections . They have only 12 councillors compared to Lib Dems 19 and 1 Ind Lib Dem . To get any significant measure passed they will have to get the votes of all the 4 Labour and 6 UKIP councillors will have to vote with the Conservatives , abstaining will not be enough .
    The consensus locally is that it will all end in tears within a few months with the council having to find £12.5 million of cuts . There are also local rumours that one of the elected UKIP councillors may resign fairly quickly as they did not expect to win and actually do something .
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,622
    Socrates said:

    BobaFett said:



    The site is massively Tory dominated. No doubt about it.

    No it's not. Looking at the people posting below me:

    Charles - Tory
    rcs1000 - Swing voter
    Neil - Green
    anotherDave - UKIP (?)
    antifrank - Swing voter
    SeanT - probably votes Tory
    PulpStar - not sure
    BobaFett - Labour
    HurstLlama - UKIP
    ToryJim - Tory
    Sean Fear - UKIP
    stodge - Lib Dem
    Speedy - Labour

    Who do you think AveryLP supports?
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Some important polling information about the things people say make them feel insecure.If ever a case were made for stronger unions and worker protection,it is this.

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/16/insecure-britain-poll-economic-recovery-immigration?CMP=twt_fd
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    Stodge


    "Even Sean T, who used to be witty and ascerbic, has degenerated into a right-wing caricature of his former glory."

    Funnily enough, I can't remember you ever saying I was "glorious" at the time, if anything, I recall the opposite.

    If my standard of commentary has descended on here it's cause

    1. I'm slightly bored of the site (no offence to OGH, it's just the cycle of life)
    2. I now get paid to come up with bon mots elsewhere, why give 'em away for free here
    3. I am now rich and surrounded by comely young women, this is a distraction
    4. Being rich and surrounded by comely young women makes a man less grumpy, so maybe I am less acerbic for that reason
    5. WHO GIVES A FECK WHAT YOU THINK ANYWAY, YOU HAPLESS DILDO


    Nonetheless, as a more neutral observer who visits the site much less often than I did, I can't say it has changed much. It's been vaguely proTory since i joined in about 2005, yet it remains a valuable and very interesting website, one of the few places where you can hear articulate opinions of all persuasions, plus stuff about trains, God and Carthaginian war strategy.

    Long may pb endure.


    Talking of trains, I haven't heard from @JosiasJessop recently?
    Stored awaiting disposal? :)
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    antifrank said:

    Anecdote alert: my other half over the weekend announced unprompted "that for the first time in my life I'm considering not voting for the Conservatives at the general election". This came as a surprise to me because I'd always vaguely got the impression that he was a rather unusual Lib Dem - we don't really talk much about politics.

    His rationale? The screw-up over the passports, which he considered unacceptable in this day and age.

    He did not disclose who he was considering voting for.

    Ex Gove Spad, Dominic Cummings' line is that screw-ups are the norm:

    "[civil servants] are caught between structural dysfunction and politicians running around who don’t really know what they’re doing all day or what the purpose of their being in power is. Everyone thinks there’s some moment, like in a James Bond movie, where you open the door and that’s where the really good people are, but there is no door."

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/06/david-cameron-is-a-tory-not-a-radical-which-is-both-a-strength-and-a-problem/

    http://dominiccummings.wordpress.com
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986
    SeanT said:

    Stodge


    "Even Sean T, who used to be witty and ascerbic, has degenerated into a right-wing caricature of his former glory."

    Funnily enough, I can't remember you ever saying I was "glorious" at the time, if anything, I recall the opposite.

    If my standard of commentary has descended on here it's cause

    1. I'm slightly bored of the site (no offence to OGH, it's just the cycle of life)
    2. I now get paid to come up with bon mots elsewhere, why give 'em away for free here
    3. I am now rich and surrounded by comely young women, this is a distraction
    4. Being rich and surrounded by comely young women makes a man less grumpy, so maybe I am less acerbic for that reason
    5. WHO GIVES A FECK WHAT YOU THINK ANYWAY, YOU HAPLESS DILDO


    Nonetheless, as a more neutral observer who visits the site much less often than I did, I can't say it has changed much. It's been vaguely proTory since i joined in about 2005, yet it remains a valuable and very interesting website, one of the few places where you can hear articulate opinions of all persuasions, plus stuff about trains, God and Carthaginian war strategy.

    Long may pb endure.


    All very disappointing - whatever happened to the barbs of "Gaylord Ponceyboots" and the stories of a drug-addled life in Asia ?

    Even the formulaic insult (capital letters and a vague sexual reference) is just passé.

    You're like one of those bands who put out a really good first album - raw, fresh, full of energy - and become a huge success. By the fourth album, the sound has been over-produced to an incoherent mush of nothingness and mediocrity while wealth, fame and regular casual sex has destroyed whatever energy the band once had.

    Like I say, a parody of your former self.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    My current prediction for the Indy ref is No 55%, Yes 45%. Actually that was my prediction from 6 months ago and I haven't changed it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:

    Stodge


    "Even Sean T, who used to be witty and ascerbic, has degenerated into a right-wing caricature of his former glory."

    Funnily enough, I can't remember you ever saying I was "glorious" at the time, if anything, I recall the opposite.

    If my standard of commentary has descended on here it's cause

    1. I'm slightly bored of the site (no offence to OGH, it's just the cycle of life)
    2. I now get paid to come up with bon mots elsewhere, why give 'em away for free here
    3. I am now rich and surrounded by comely young women, this is a distraction
    4. Being rich and surrounded by comely young women makes a man less grumpy, so maybe I am less acerbic for that reason
    5. WHO GIVES A FECK WHAT YOU THINK ANYWAY, YOU HAPLESS DILDO


    Nonetheless, as a more neutral observer who visits the site much less often than I did, I can't say it has changed much. It's been vaguely proTory since i joined in about 2005, yet it remains a valuable and very interesting website, one of the few places where you can hear articulate opinions of all persuasions, plus stuff about trains, God and Carthaginian war strategy.

    Long may pb endure.


    Talking of trains, I haven't heard from @JosiasJessop recently?
    Stored awaiting disposal? :)
    The sidings have all been sold off for yuppie flats, don't you know? (Like those at Oxford, now being used to build some ghastly university accommodation seriously messing up the view to and from Port Meadow.) Though I do hope our erstwhile resident engineer is OK.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited June 2014
    I've just done a quick sum on the Torbay local election results as its a sat quite a few PBers including myself are backing the Tories in:

    LD Con
    Clifton 829 680.5
    Cockington 1058.33 1365.3
    Ellacombe 418.5 402.5
    Goodrington 720 881
    Preston 809.6 1677.3
    Roundham 533.5 583.5
    St Marychurch 1109.3 1239.6
    Shiphay 897.5 1118
    Tormuhun 735.6 746.3
    Watcombe 1073.5 538
    Wellswood 482.5 1779


    8668 11011
    If someone wants to add UKIP and Lab they can. I've taken an average of the vote for the Multi member wards.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,622
    I've emailed @JosiasJessop to check he's OK. FWIW, he last visited the site on the 12th, so he's been reading even if not contributing
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,622
    Pulpstar said:

    I've just done a quick sum on the Torbay local election results as its a sat quite a few PBers including myself are backing the Tories in:


    LD Con
    Clifton 829 680.5
    Cockington 1058.33 1365.3
    Ellacombe 418.5 402.5
    Goodrington 720 881
    Preston 809.6 1677.3
    Roundham 533.5 583.5
    St Marychurch 1109.3 1239.6
    Shiphay 897.5 1118
    Tormuhun 735.6 746.3
    Watcombe 1073.5 538
    Wellswood 482.5 1779


    8668 11011
    Is Torbay one of these places where there are fractions of people?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    SeanT said:


    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    Plenty of us get paid for writing. Some of us, however, do it for much smaller audiences.

    And I suspect the influence of the audience matters more than the size...

    I also find it amusing that Sean thinks that having sex with an attractive member of the opposite sex is something unique to him.
    Did I claim I was unique??? No, I merely pointed out, with nothing but appropriate modesty, that I'm having sex with approximately 50 women a year, at the moment.
    Wow. That must be very expensive.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just done a quick sum on the Torbay local election results as its a sat quite a few PBers including myself are backing the Tories in:


    LD Con
    Clifton 829 680.5
    Cockington 1058.33 1365.3
    Ellacombe 418.5 402.5
    Goodrington 720 881
    Preston 809.6 1677.3
    Roundham 533.5 583.5
    St Marychurch 1109.3 1239.6
    Shiphay 897.5 1118
    Tormuhun 735.6 746.3
    Watcombe 1073.5 538
    Wellswood 482.5 1779


    8668 11011
    Is Torbay one of these places where there are fractions of people?
    Average of the multi member wards... So a split ticketer would be a fractional person !

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,622
    Anorak said:

    SeanT said:


    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    Plenty of us get paid for writing. Some of us, however, do it for much smaller audiences.

    And I suspect the influence of the audience matters more than the size...

    I also find it amusing that Sean thinks that having sex with an attractive member of the opposite sex is something unique to him.
    Did I claim I was unique??? No, I merely pointed out, with nothing but appropriate modesty, that I'm having sex with approximately 50 women a year, at the moment.
    Wow. That must be very expensive.
    Do remember, that's only sex once a week
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Pulpstar said:

    I've just done a quick sum on the Torbay local election results as its a sat quite a few PBers including myself are backing the Tories in:


    LD Con
    Clifton 829 680.5
    Cockington 1058.33 1365.3
    Ellacombe 418.5 402.5
    Goodrington 720 881
    Preston 809.6 1677.3
    Roundham 533.5 583.5
    St Marychurch 1109.3 1239.6
    Shiphay 897.5 1118
    Tormuhun 735.6 746.3
    Watcombe 1073.5 538
    Wellswood 482.5 1779


    8668 11011
    If someone wants to add UKIP and Lab they can. I've taken an average of the vote for the Multi member wards.
    The Conservative lead in the same wards in the 2007 local elections was in fact slightly higher at 2,500
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just done a quick sum on the Torbay local election results as its a sat quite a few PBers including myself are backing the Tories in:


    LD Con
    Clifton 829 680.5
    Cockington 1058.33 1365.3
    Ellacombe 418.5 402.5
    Goodrington 720 881
    Preston 809.6 1677.3
    Roundham 533.5 583.5
    St Marychurch 1109.3 1239.6
    Shiphay 897.5 1118
    Tormuhun 735.6 746.3
    Watcombe 1073.5 538
    Wellswood 482.5 1779


    8668 11011
    Is Torbay one of these places where there are fractions of people?
    9905 12041

    If you use maximal methodology. Slightly better for the Lib Dems.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SeanT said:


    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    Plenty of us get paid for writing. Some of us, however, do it for much smaller audiences.

    And I suspect the influence of the audience matters more than the size...

    I also find it amusing that Sean thinks that having sex with an attractive member of the opposite sex is something unique to him.
    Did I claim I was unique??? No, I merely pointed out, with nothing but appropriate modesty, that I'm having sex with approximately 50 women a year, at the moment.
    What percentage of those do you pay for their time?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,622
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Actually, before I disappear to go do SOME PROPER PAID WRITING (NB, STODGE), I have an observation to make with POTENTIAL BETTING IMPLICATIONS.

    The odds on the indyref seem out of whack with the latest polls.

    The three most recent polls - Survation, ICM and Panelbase - all have YES within striking distance of victory.

    Now, personally, I believe NO will win, but it will be close, and closer than I would have said two weeks ago, and way closer than I would have said a year ago.

    Yet some of the odds on NO winning have it as practically a dead cert: 1/7 Boyle Express, 1/6 Coral, 1/6 William Hill.

    Conversely, some of the odds on YES seem a tad generous, given the narrowing polls: 4/1 Boyleexpress, 7/2 Bet Victor, 7/2 Paddypower.

    Just an observation for the wagerly-minded.

    And now, to work.

    Hey Sean, if you want 4/1, I'll give you it. Drop me an email with your stake size
    i believe we already have a bet, by proxy, which I am almost certain to win. No? I rest content with that.

    However I reiterate my offer of the previous week (did you see it)? I know I still owe you a drink. If NO wins I will make that drink a spliced bottle of champagne in the Groucho. Guaranteed.

    Deal?



    That's a fair enough offer, thank you.

    We'll see regarding our other bet, but the latest stats are definitely heading in my direction. According to Grant's six of the seven largest Chinese provinces are now in recession.

    Did you know that $2trillion of 'wealth management products' (i.e. shadow loans) need to be refinanced in China in the next 18 months?

    And that China's banking sector is already the largest in the world, in terms of loans? (Accounting for more than a third of global GDP).
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    rcs1000 said:

    I've emailed @JosiasJessop to check he's OK. FWIW, he last visited the site on the 12th, so he's been reading even if not contributing

    Thanks. Truth to tell he hasn't missed much but that is in part because he isn't here to enliven it with his tales of daring-do and engineering.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    BobaFett said:



    The site is massively Tory dominated. No doubt about it.

    No it's not. Looking at the people posting below me:

    Charles - Tory
    rcs1000 - Swing voter
    Neil - Green
    anotherDave - UKIP (?)
    antifrank - Swing voter
    SeanT - probably votes Tory
    PulpStar - not sure
    BobaFett - Labour
    HurstLlama - UKIP
    ToryJim - Tory
    Sean Fear - UKIP
    stodge - Lib Dem
    Speedy - Labour

    Who do you think AveryLP supports?
    Disappointed I didn't make the list :(
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited June 2014
    @SeanT

    Now I know I've led a sheltered life, save for my sojourns around the UK rail network, but what would make a LibDem strap-on different from any other strap-on?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Alastair Cook's fielding positions are just terrible. You need to put them almost all of them in catching positions in this sort of situation.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just done a quick sum on the Torbay local election results as its a sat quite a few PBers including myself are backing the Tories in:


    LD Con
    Clifton 829 680.5
    Cockington 1058.33 1365.3
    Ellacombe 418.5 402.5
    Goodrington 720 881
    Preston 809.6 1677.3
    Roundham 533.5 583.5
    St Marychurch 1109.3 1239.6
    Shiphay 897.5 1118
    Tormuhun 735.6 746.3
    Watcombe 1073.5 538
    Wellswood 482.5 1779


    8668 11011
    Is Torbay one of these places where there are fractions of people?
    9905 12041

    If you use maximal methodology. Slightly better for the Lib Dems.
    2007 results Con 12061 LD 9587
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Hope noone is sitting on a large red on the draw at this moment !
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    rcs1000 said:

    I've emailed @JosiasJessop to check he's OK. FWIW, he last visited the site on the 12th, so he's been reading even if not contributing

    That's good to know!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    edited June 2014
    SeanT said:

    Anorak said:

    SeanT said:


    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    Plenty of us get paid for writing. Some of us, however, do it for much smaller audiences.

    And I suspect the influence of the audience matters more than the size...

    I also find it amusing that Sean thinks that having sex with an attractive member of the opposite sex is something unique to him.
    Did I claim I was unique??? No, I merely pointed out, with nothing but appropriate modesty, that I'm having sex with approximately 50 women a year, at the moment.
    Wow. That must be very expensive.
    I'm not going to hookers any more. But yes, it is still very expensive: champagne, dinners etc

    Plus you have to be a bit more proactive. Put it this way: I'm not getting any sleep. I look and feel about ninety years old.

    To be honest I long for the quiet old life of go-go bars, coyote dancers and short time girls in hotpants, when ten minutes was all that was required, followed by a nice chicken penang and a lie down.
    Slightly too much channeling '80s Amis, Sean; perhaps you do need a break.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    edited June 2014

    @SeanT

    Now I know I've led a sheltered life, save for my sojourns around the UK rail network, but what would make a LibDem strap-on different from any other strap-on?

    It's yellow?

    [edit: not that I would know either ...]

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    The best thing about a strap on that it is an anagram of "no parts" which has always amused me.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Anorak said:

    SeanT said:


    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    Plenty of us get paid for writing. Some of us, however, do it for much smaller audiences.

    And I suspect the influence of the audience matters more than the size...

    I also find it amusing that Sean thinks that having sex with an attractive member of the opposite sex is something unique to him.
    Did I claim I was unique??? No, I merely pointed out, with nothing but appropriate modesty, that I'm having sex with approximately 50 women a year, at the moment.
    Wow. That must be very expensive.
    Not with the sort of women that sleep with a guy within a week of dating.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    The best thing about a strap on that it is an anagram of "no parts" which has always amused me.

    It would
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    BobaFett said:

    @isam‌
    Am I Tim, Bobajob, the Last Boy Scout or someone else? I lose track with you as you have suggested I am all and none of them over the years ;-)

    At least one!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited June 2014
    "UK outlaws Isis militant group behind Iraqi attacks"

    It wasn't banned before?
    Still, they know Britain is on their case now, all it takes is a firm jaw and a finger wag.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27865849
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    antifrank said:

    Anecdote alert: my other half over the weekend announced unprompted "that for the first time in my life I'm considering not voting for the Conservatives at the general election". This came as a surprise to me because I'd always vaguely got the impression that he was a rather unusual Lib Dem - we don't really talk much about politics.

    His rationale? The screw-up over the passports, which he considered unacceptable in this day and age.

    He did not disclose who he was considering voting for.

    I occasionally canvass people who say apparently honestly that they've been with their partner for a decade or more and have no idea how they vote. For political people this is as weird as if they said they'd no idea if their partner liked wine. How can people possibly spend years in each others' company and not discuss politics, ever?

    But they do. They Don't Think Politicians Are Important. Good heavens. :-)



  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    @isam‌
    Am I Tim, Bobajob, the Last Boy Scout or someone else? I lose track with you as you have suggested I am all and none of them over the years ;-)

    At least one!
    Chas or Dave?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited June 2014

    antifrank said:

    Anecdote alert: my other half over the weekend announced unprompted "that for the first time in my life I'm considering not voting for the Conservatives at the general election". This came as a surprise to me because I'd always vaguely got the impression that he was a rather unusual Lib Dem - we don't really talk much about politics.

    His rationale? The screw-up over the passports, which he considered unacceptable in this day and age.

    He did not disclose who he was considering voting for.

    I occasionally canvass people who say apparently honestly that they've been with their partner for a decade or more and have no idea how they vote. For political people this is as weird as if they said they'd no idea if their partner liked wine. How can people possibly spend years in each others' company and not discuss politics, ever?

    But they do. They Don't Think Politicians Are Important. Good heavens. :-)
    I once saw numbers in the US which showed that (something like) 75% of men voted the same as their partners, while only 50% of women did. Fairly amusing implications.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121

    The best thing about a strap on that it is an anagram of "no parts" which has always amused me.

    And condom is an anagram of mod-con :)
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    antifrank said:

    Anecdote alert: my other half over the weekend announced unprompted "that for the first time in my life I'm considering not voting for the Conservatives at the general election". This came as a surprise to me because I'd always vaguely got the impression that he was a rather unusual Lib Dem - we don't really talk much about politics.

    His rationale? The screw-up over the passports, which he considered unacceptable in this day and age.

    He did not disclose who he was considering voting for.

    I occasionally canvass people who say apparently honestly that they've been with their partner for a decade or more and have no idea how they vote. For political people this is as weird as if they said they'd no idea if their partner liked wine. How can people possibly spend years in each others' company and not discuss politics, ever?

    But they do. They Don't Think Politicians Are Important. Good heavens. :-)
    There are people out there who take the secret ballot very seriously, and so refuse to say who they vote for on principle. These people will talk about politics a lot, and so it becomes quite clear who they won't be voting for, but they prefer to keep quiet about the vote itself.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146

    The best thing about a strap on that it is an anagram of "no parts" which has always amused me.

    Also Pro Nats.
    Which of course all at PB are.
This discussion has been closed.