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Dangerous myths – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,453
    edited January 2021
    eek said:

    Nope but there is a rule that a consultation is required to get consent 5 days before the vaccination is given.

    This results in a lot of paperwork and delays.
    The French demanding lots of paperwork, I'm shocked I tell you. How many extra people are dying because of this nonsense.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,533
    Starry said:

    Wouldn't it be a start if, to be a Republican candidate, you had to actually be a member of the Republican Party? We almost had a situation of Trump v Sanders representing parties they never deigned to join!

    What a novel notion.

    It is pretty remarkable. I criticise parties a lot, but at the least they should allow themselves that level of discretion.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,246
    tlg86 said:

    I think @isam is right here. They were crying wolf - we're seeing what a real crisis looks like - I suspect we not hear quite so much about winter health crises in future years.
    There have been crises every year, not in every hospital in every year, but certainly they have happened. I work with a number of medics at hospitals in Yorkshire and the issues are real - routine procedures cancelled or put back, shipping patients out to other hospitals long distances away, sending patients home knowing theyll be back shortly afterwards to not run out of beds (the last also costs the hospital money as they then don't get paid for that care if there's an emergency readmission, but is sometimes the only way of keeping afloat).

    Of course, it's a fine line - you also don't want, in the real world of other spending priorities, to have a big excess of facilities. The most efficient option is to have just enough to cope with peak demand and if you do that you sometimes won't have quite enough. It's also true that if there are more facilities/money then more things will get treated/get treated sooner to try and not waste those facilities. You'd need a massive funding increase to remove the crises completely. But the issues reported every winter are real.
  • Those gas masks the elected officials had look like stock left over from the 80s.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,202
    Helpful reminder of one of our own depth-plumbing moments.

    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/1347109193464107011?s=21
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,533

    I think the great thing about you HYUFD is that unlike the poster above you have never been so immodest to claim to have "the mark of greatness". I don't always agree with you, but as I have said before I admire your politeness, which is, partic in a forum like this, a mark of greatness!
    HYUFD is always calm, on message and determined. I have no doubt he is an excellent local politician and party member.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,815

    Helpful reminder of one of our own depth-plumbing moments.

    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/1347109193464107011?s=21

    Nige isn't the President.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    The French demanding lots of paperwork, I'm shocked I tell you. How many extra people are dying because of this nonsense.
    While we are having arguments about paperwork imposed on doctors coming back to help out with the big V programme, in Europe they’re arguing about paperwork imposed on the general population who want to be vaccinated!

    If, as expected, the U.K. quickly starts rolling out 2m+ vaccines a week, there’s going to be all sorts of questions raised in Europe.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,287
    edited January 2021

    Helpful reminder of one of our own depth-plumbing moments.

    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/1347109193464107011?s=21

    That is such a bad take, using a military analogy to describe not giving up is not an incitement to violence - there must be lots of examples of it from politicians. The same people who use this as ammo (not literally!) against Farage were happy to excuse George Osborne for saying he wanted to chop up Theresa May and put her in his freezer!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,453
    edited January 2021
    NBC are overdoing calling it "unpresendented violence and vandalism"....erhhh all those cities that got burned down in "mostly peaceful" protests in the summer.

    The key point is that the mob tried to stop democracy. Luckily they were too thick and unorganised to do so. If they were heaven knows what real destruction they could have done.
  • MaxPB said:

    Nige isn't the President.
    He is a great friend of the President, though ;.)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,702
    Selebian said:

    There have been crises every year, not in every hospital in every year, but certainly they have happened. I work with a number of medics at hospitals in Yorkshire and the issues are real - routine procedures cancelled or put back, shipping patients out to other hospitals long distances away, sending patients home knowing theyll be back shortly afterwards to not run out of beds (the last also costs the hospital money as they then don't get paid for that care if there's an emergency readmission, but is sometimes the only way of keeping afloat).

    Of course, it's a fine line - you also don't want, in the real world of other spending priorities, to have a big excess of facilities. The most efficient option is to have just enough to cope with peak demand and if you do that you sometimes won't have quite enough. It's also true that if there are more facilities/money then more things will get treated/get treated sooner to try and not waste those facilities. You'd need a massive funding increase to remove the crises completely. But the issues reported every winter are real.
    I think that's it - and yes to have that excess capacity all the time for a once in a century event would be suboptimal for sure. Plus we couldn't afford it by which I mean that any Party suggesting it in a manifesto would not be elected to government.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,287

    He is a great friend of the President, though ;.)
    I bet he wishes he hadn't said that Trump was the bravest man he'd ever met now!
  • TresTres Posts: 2,819
    tlg86 said:

    I think @isam is right here. They were crying wolf - we're seeing what a real crisis looks like - I suspect we not hear quite so much about winter health crises in future years.
    It's a seasonal effect due to influenza that is here to stay, just as much a feature of life as airports being busy when the school holidays start.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,533

    Helpful reminder of one of our own depth-plumbing moments.

    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/1347109193464107011?s=21

    Momentary uses of inflammatory talk can be forgivable, even militaristic ones, in the heat of a moment. But given the general level of passion involved across the period and his influence it was not really ok.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Its one thing to tell people what they believe is a 'dangerous myth.'

    Its quite another thing to show them.

    Reform America's voting system.
    Allow observed signature match audits when requested.
    Disqualify unconstitutional last minute amendments to voting rules by state officials.
    Clean up voter rolls more efficiently.

    This stuff isn't difficult.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    edited January 2021

    OK - are you going to apply this rule evenly to all sides? Will lefty politicians and activists be expressly forbidden from viciously attacking Tories, 'the rich', etc, in case someone who listens to them commits a crime? They called Boris a butcher and a murderer last year - should they face consequences for inciting violence against the Prime Minister?

    I'm afraid your myopic special pleading doesn't cut much ice.
    It's barely a fortnight since Roger on this very site said that most people thought Johnson should be hanged on Westminster bridge!
  • The Kaiser supported Hitler at the end of his iife too.

    But Hitler thought the Kaiser was a twat! :lol:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,208
    isam said:

    I bet he wishes he hadn't said that Trump was the bravest man he'd ever met now!
    Ye - if Trump had actually been brave he'd have led the "walk to the capitol" himself.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,321
    Sandpit said:

    While we are having arguments about paperwork imposed on doctors coming back to help out with the big V programme, in Europe they’re arguing about paperwork imposed on the general population who want to be vaccinated!

    If, as expected, the U.K. quickly starts rolling out 2m+ vaccines a week, there’s going to be all sorts of questions raised in Europe.
    France isn't all of Europe. But sure, if France doesn't want to use its doses they should pass them on to somewhere that does.

    Use em or lose em!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,287
    Selebian said:

    There have been crises every year, not in every hospital in every year, but certainly they have happened. I work with a number of medics at hospitals in Yorkshire and the issues are real - routine procedures cancelled or put back, shipping patients out to other hospitals long distances away, sending patients home knowing theyll be back shortly afterwards to not run out of beds (the last also costs the hospital money as they then don't get paid for that care if there's an emergency readmission, but is sometimes the only way of keeping afloat).

    Of course, it's a fine line - you also don't want, in the real world of other spending priorities, to have a big excess of facilities. The most efficient option is to have just enough to cope with peak demand and if you do that you sometimes won't have quite enough. It's also true that if there are more facilities/money then more things will get treated/get treated sooner to try and not waste those facilities. You'd need a massive funding increase to remove the crises completely. But the issues reported every winter are real.
    Do the NHS do seasonal hire? Staff from southern hemisphere countries boosting the numbers during our winter?I guess that wouldn't help with beds/equipment
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,533
    felix said:

    It's barely a fortnight since Roger on this very site said that most people thought Johnson should be hanged on Westminster bridge!
    He was both wrong and disgraceful, as I think most told him.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,775
    edited January 2021
    Alistair said:

    The well of columnists who wrote "Trump won't be as bad as you think/the hysterical doom mongering of the left" columns 4 years ago who are now writing "Who could have seen this coming/the signs were always there" columns today will draw deep.

    Yep. There will be much attempted repositioning. Fine, but it would be nice if it failed and platforms were lost. I'm not hopeful. I remember after the 08 Crash the same stream of pundits, who in previous years had not mentioned even the faintest risk of such a thing happening, there on my screen now explaining to the world in grave and ponderous "men of the world" tones exactly why it had. Annoying.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I wouldn't want to be in charge of security arrangements for the inauguration right now. They must be very worried.

    Why? The principles of setting up a perimeter, being selective about who goes through it, and checking them on the way in for gunz n pipebombs are as easy and as well understood as they were 48 hours ago. Unless what worries them is having come face to face with their own incompetence.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,498


    Disqualify unconstitutional last minute amendments to voting rules by state officials.

    Like the ones Trump and the Republicans have been trying to force through?

    Clean up voter rolls more efficiently.

    This stuff isn't difficult.

    No, we'd noticed from the way so many Democratic voters had been mysteriously wiped off them.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    felix said:

    It's barely a fortnight since Roger on this very site said that most people thought Johnson should be hanged on Westminster bridge!
    Quite. I'm sure Cyclefree will be penning a header on the topic any day now.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited January 2021
    kamski said:

    France isn't all of Europe. But sure, if France doesn't want to use its doses they should pass them on to somewhere that does.

    Use em or lose em!
    Agreed. It’s not just France either. Germany and the U.K. appear to be the only European countries taking the rollout close to seriously.

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,246
    Sandpit said:

    Agreed. It’s not just France either. Germany and the U.K. appear to be the only European countries taking the rollout close to seriously.

    Pretty nuts that we've now overtaken Russia given all the fuss they made about starting vaccinations early.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,498
    Sandpit said:

    Agreed. It’s not just France either. Germany and the U.K. appear to be the only European countries taking the rollout close to seriously.

    That figure for Belgium, which is after all both the worst affected nation in Europe and the place where Pfizer are manufacturing their vaccine, is just embarrassing.
  • Sandpit said:

    Agreed. It’s not just France either. Germany and the U.K. appear to be the only European countries taking the rollout close to seriously.

    And the Dutch are still smoking a fat one, talking about getting round to starting next week, like they are about to start a new diet while eating a big piece of chocolate cake.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Fishing said:

    We are, or were in 2017, slightly above the OECD median (PPP) - above Spain and Italy, but below France, Germany and the US. No conclusive evidence either of lavish funding, or of a lack of funding.
    All of this piling on of individuals for no other reason than dislikeing their views demeans the site almost as much as the poster. Argue the case ffs.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,287
    Selebian said:

    Pretty nuts that we've now overtaken Russia given all the fuss they made about starting vaccinations early.
    Imagine how far in the lead we'd be if we weren't hamstrung by Boris as PM!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,815
    kamski said:

    France isn't all of Europe. But sure, if France doesn't want to use its doses they should pass them on to somewhere that does.

    Use em or lose em!
    I'm just wondering how many doses have been going to waste in France given that we know all 950 need to be used within 72h of defrosting. It's a massive scandal that no one seems to be paying any attention to. In the US they have charged someone with a crime for ruining a batch of vaccine doses as each box is 430 people protected against catching the virus and prevents 4 deaths.

    If the French aren't going to use their allocation it absolutely should be sent to Germany, Italy, Spain and other European countries that have been hugely supply constrained with their own programmes.

    I've had it suggested to me that the French are dragging their feet because they want to ensure that when Sanofi are ready to deliver there is still need of the vaccine. It's seems completely ridiculous but given that they forced the EU scheme to pass up on 200m additional doses of the Pfizer vaccine and forced it to drag its feet on Moderna resulting in delays and shortages in supply I honestly wouldn't put it past them at this point.

    Good on Germany for securing its own separate supply of Pfizer, other European countries should do the same, the continental vaccine response can't be dictated by the slowest moving, anti-vaxxer, state subsidies addicted member.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,562
    Selebian said:

    There's also the point that excess deaths (versus a 5 year average, as here) are not that good for assessing long term trends, because the baseline keeps moving (obviously). They are good for saying whether a particular year is bad compared to the recent norm.

    For example, look at the patterns of the wars. First/early years have great numbers of excess deaths because they're compared to pre-war. Post-war/towards the end of war has lower than 'normal' excess deaths as they're compared to war years. 1920 was not, I expect, really a better year for deaths than 2019!
    You need the crude, non-age adjusted figures. The Twitter thread also includes these:

    https://twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1346862193451692034?s=19
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,702
    kinabalu said:

    Yep. There will be much attempted repositioning. Fine, but it would be nice if it failed and platforms were lost. I'm not hopeful. I remember after the 08 Crash the same stream of pundits, who in previous years had not mentioned even the faintest risk of such a thing happening, there on my screen now explaining to the world in grave and ponderous "men of the world" tones exactly why it had. Annoying.
    On your screen on the CDS trading floor?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Helpful reminder of one of our own depth-plumbing moments.

    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/1347109193464107011?s=21

    True ... but what was the reaction when Milkshake Guy through his chocolate milkshake over Farage.

    "I'm thinking why bother with a milkshake when you could get some battery acid." (Jo Brand).

    That was particularly irresponsible as acid attacks are deadly easy to carry out against politicians, who are out and about.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,815
    Sandpit said:

    Agreed. It’s not just France either. Germany and the U.K. appear to be the only European countries taking the rollout close to seriously.

    Italy seems to be doing as well as they can given supply.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,177

    But Hitler thought the Kaiser was a twat! :lol:
    Hitler disliked many of his supporters. Not a likeable bunch, really.

    For example he despised the EuroNazi* thing - he couldn't understand anyone who was willing to make their country subservient to another, and instinctively hated them. Even when they were kissing his feet.

    *Quite a lot of continental** Fascist outfits signed up to the idea of "Aryans of the world unite". Hence the foreign units in the SS.
    **Mosley led (most of) the British Fascists the other way - nationalism first, fascism second.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Is it literally one doctor for the whole of France doing vaccinations?
    Doctor Clouseau? ex-cop!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    kinabalu said:

    Yep. There will be much attempted repositioning. Fine, but it would be nice if it failed and platforms were lost. I'm not hopeful. I remember after the 08 Crash the same stream of pundits, who in previous years had not mentioned even the faintest risk of such a thing happening, there on my screen now explaining to the world in grave and ponderous "men of the world" tones exactly why it had. Annoying.
    As I've said before political betting requires people to prognosticate and prognosticate is what people here do. But seriously how good is humanity at prediciting the future? We've barely moved on from examining entrails.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,702
    MaxPB said:

    the slowest moving, anti-vaxxer, state subsidised addicted member.

    Are we talking about @Dura_Ace on PB here? I don't think he'd like to be termed as slow moving.
  • kamski said:

    The CDU managed to have Chancellor who was never a member of the CDU...
    Didn't we almost have that situation here in Britain? A leadership candidate whose party membership had lapsed?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    felix said:

    It's barely a fortnight since Roger on this very site said that most people thought Johnson should be hanged on Westminster bridge!
    That comment reminded me of the depths of Guido’s comment section in the middle of the expenses scandal - where jokes were made about trying to find 650 lamp posts in Parliament Square and across Westminster Bridge, from which 650 lengths of piano wire could be hung and 650 MPs could be hanged. The difference then, apart from changes in acceptable comments over the past dozen years, was that the commenters saying such things were clearly doing so in jest.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,505

    Its one thing to tell people what they believe is a 'dangerous myth.'

    Its quite another thing to show them.

    Reform America's voting system.
    Allow observed signature match audits when requested.
    Disqualify unconstitutional last minute amendments to voting rules by state officials.
    Clean up voter rolls more efficiently.

    This stuff isn't difficult.

    Not that I disagree with this, but cleaning up an electoral roll is actually difficult, but in fairness the Republicans have actually been very efficient at it, some might say too efficient.

    The biggest change that could be made is to remove politicians from the process of running elections.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    edited January 2021
    ydoethur said:

    That figure for Belgium, which is after all both the worst affected nation in Europe and the place where Pfizer are manufacturing their vaccine, is just embarrassing.
    And their PM has criticized Astra Zeneca suggesting their vaccine may be unsafe.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,815
    TOPPING said:

    Are we talking about @Dura_Ace on PB here? I don't think he'd like to be termed as slow moving.
    Sitting there revving his Datsun Sunny engine on his driveway all day is the definition of slow moving.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,177
    Selebian said:

    Pretty nuts that we've now overtaken Russia given all the fuss they made about starting vaccinations early.
    Particularly since we had completely run down our nerve gas manufacturing capability.

    I'll get my coat....
  • He is also a nobody (sorry Roger) on the interweb. If I’m to be generous, his comment fits into a very broad definition of colloquial, rough-and-tumble grassroots political discourse.

    A bit like those rather awful people who seemed to welcome the death of Thatcher.

    But it’s different if it’s someone in the public eye. Whether that be Trump, Farage, Johnson or Patel. They just be rightly held to a higher standard.
    So like a Labour MP subsequently made Shadow Chancellor literally calling for the lynching of a female MP?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-42682854
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,202

    True ... but what was the reaction when Milkshake Guy through his chocolate milkshake over Farage.

    "I'm thinking why bother with a milkshake when you could get some battery acid." (Jo Brand).

    That was particularly irresponsible as acid attacks are deadly easy to carry out against politicians, who are out and about.
    I don’t remember that.
    But if true, Jo Brand was/is an irresponsible idiot.
  • felix said:

    Doctor Clouseau? ex-cop!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6K7xxYFwGCc
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,202
    Sandpit said:

    That comment reminded me of the depths of Guido’s comment section in the middle of the expenses scandal - where jokes were made about trying to find 650 lamp posts in Parliament Square and across Westminster Bridge, from which 650 lengths of piano wire could be hung and 650 MPs could be hanged. The difference then, apart from changes in acceptable comments over the past dozen years, was that the commenters saying such things were clearly doing so in jest.
    What on earth were you doing in the middle of the Guido comments section? It’s the blackest of sewers.
  • MaxPB said:

    Italy seems to be doing as well as they can given supply.
    Italy is actually doing better than Germany as %. Denmark also. That particular chart isn't as useful as the % vaccine rate chart as comparing countries of very different sizes.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,702
    MaxPB said:

    Sitting there revving his Datsun Sunny engine on his driveway all day is the definition of slow moving.
    I see him more as a Hot Dolly kind of guy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,453
    edited January 2021

    True ... but what was the reaction when Milkshake Guy through his chocolate milkshake over Farage.

    "I'm thinking why bother with a milkshake when you could get some battery acid." (Jo Brand).

    That was particularly irresponsible as acid attacks are deadly easy to carry out against politicians, who are out and about.
    Far too many people who should know better thought it was all so funny that people were running around throwing milkshakes, because it was people they didn't like.

    And lets not forget somebody came up behind Jezza and smashed an egg on his head.

    All these actions when they happen need to be strongly condemned, as it is a slippery slope.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,202

    So like a Labour MP subsequently made Shadow Chancellor literally calling for the lynching of a female MP?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-42682854
    Yep. Awful. One of several episodes which collectively indicated the Corbynistas could not be trusted with government.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,155
    kle4 said:

    It does. Whilst Emily Benn is apparently a decent and talented person it was risible when she talked about being a normal person, when normal people, no matter how brilliant they are, dont get selected as parliamentary candidates at age 17, without a dynasty.
    Mhairi Black was selected, and indeed elected, at a very young age and with no political dynasty behind her.

    Obviously it happens a lot more often for people from political dynasties, but it does happen.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    I don’t remember that.
    But if true, Jo Brand was/is an irresponsible idiot.
    She did - it may even have been on the BBC in what passes for comedy there.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,702

    Italy is actually doing better than Germany as %. Denmark also. That particular chart isn't as useful as the % vaccine rate chart as comparing countries of very different sizes.
    So surely on those terms Israel is off the scale. It would be very interesting ( @Malmesbury looking at you here) to have daily Israeli case numbers.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,815

    Mhairi Black was selected, and indeed elected, at a very young age and with no political dynasty behind her.

    Obviously it happens a lot more often for people from political dynasties, but it does happen.
    That's because she was a paper candidate, no one seriously thought she would win her seat.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,177

    He is also a nobody (sorry Roger) on the interweb. If I’m to be generous, his comment fits into a very broad definition of colloquial, rough-and-tumble grassroots political discourse.

    A bit like those rather awful people who seemed to welcome the death of Thatcher.

    But it’s different if it’s someone in the public eye. Whether that be Trump, Farage, Johnson or Patel. They just be rightly held to a higher standard.
    The problem is that talk like this escalates.

    It's how the radicalisation spiral works. Only a small number of people keep spiralling inwards, but that is enough.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    edited January 2021
    FBPE Twitter having a normal one today. Comparing controversial but legal courses of action (or if not legal, overturned in a court of law using due process) to armed rebellion against an elected legislature.

    https://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1347136297983496193
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,453
    edited January 2021
    felix said:

    She did - it may even have been on the BBC in what passes for comedy there.

    Lets not also forget the BBC most recently also thought "kill whitey" was a perfectly acceptable joke.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,500
    A major argument for impeaching Trump is he would not be able to stand in 2024 as I understand it.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    I wonder if Trump's sort-of concession statement was forced out by Pence threatening the 25th amendment
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    isam said:

    Ah, that old endearing tone of yours. It only works if you really never do miss a point
    Ah, that might even sting if it wasn't that it was precisely the line being pushed by Toby and his disciples for well over a week now, if it hadn't been posted by someone who had been face down in the covid data-wrangling/denialist swamp since early March, and if it wasn't right in the middle of a stream of "Hey, the death rate is nothing special if you look at it like this, honest!" posted directly after a graph that's been cropping up wherever denialists post.

    I might even think, "Hey, maybe he was just making a point about how unfortunate it was that the alarms had been rung before; was there a crisis before or were they crying wolf?"

    Leaping straight back into "hey, deaths are nothing special, isn't it strange how they vary?" does weaken the chances of that, though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,498

    Mhairi Black was selected, and indeed elected, at a very young age and with no political dynasty behind her.

    Obviously it happens a lot more often for people from political dynasties, but it does happen.
    Well, we might look at the safeness of these seats. Benn was selected to fight two safe Tory seats as a future marker. Black was selected to fight a Labour safeish seat especially given the presence of the Leader of Scottish Labour, one the Tories might take back in a good year, again as a future marker.

    What happened was that Benn hitched her wagon to a collapsing party. She lost, badly, in both seats she fought. Black, however, to everyone's astonishment including her own, won.
  • I don’t remember that.
    But if true, Jo Brand was/is an irresponsible idiot.
    She did, in fairness, swiftly apologise.

    It was clearly out of order, but I don't think comparing comedy with politics is all that helpful. Laughter is a nervous reaction and a lot of comedy does get close to the line (in that case it was clearly over). Politics doesn't need to get anywhere near - it can afford to be somewhat bland very often, and should do as it matters more than comedy, frankly.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,453
    edited January 2021
    You would have thought that the proven dangers of COVID, let alone heart disease etc, would have brought an end to this nonsense....

    Reacting To Cosmopolitan's "This Is Healthy" Campaign With Dr Rangan Chatterjee

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUXCEjLTHEo
  • In all the excitement, did we miss this piece of probable good news?

    Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine is likely to offer protection of up to a couple of years, its chief executive has said, even though more data is still needed to make a definitive assessment.
    ...
    “The nightmare scenario that was described in the media in the spring with a vaccine only working a month or two is, I think, out of the window,” Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said. “The antibody decay generated by the vaccine in humans goes down very slowly [...] We believe there will be protection potentially for a couple of years.”

    Bancel added his company was about to prove its vaccine would also be effective against variants of the coronavirus seen in Britain and South Africa.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jan/07/coronavirus-live-news-england-sees-record-hospitalisations-arizona-is-covid-hot-spot-of-the-world?page=with:block-5ff6c59c8f081f3586ba6721#block-5ff6c59c8f081f3586ba6721

    8:27
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,775
    DougSeal said:

    As I've said before political betting requires people to prognosticate and prognosticate is what people here do. But seriously how good is humanity at prediciting the future? We've barely moved on from examining entrails.
    And I suppose, to be more upbeat, therein lies the charm and the challenge of trying to do it. Money to be made if you can depart from the consensus on the right thing at the right time. IMO a valuable skill is to consider "contrarian" positions and be able to intuit which (the few) are shrewd and which (the many) are pure attention seeking.
  • In all the excitement, did we miss this piece of probable good news?

    Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine is likely to offer protection of up to a couple of years, its chief executive has said, even though more data is still needed to make a definitive assessment.
    ...
    “The nightmare scenario that was described in the media in the spring with a vaccine only working a month or two is, I think, out of the window,” Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said. “The antibody decay generated by the vaccine in humans goes down very slowly [...] We believe there will be protection potentially for a couple of years.”

    Bancel added his company was about to prove its vaccine would also be effective against variants of the coronavirus seen in Britain and South Africa.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jan/07/coronavirus-live-news-england-sees-record-hospitalisations-arizona-is-covid-hot-spot-of-the-world?page=with:block-5ff6c59c8f081f3586ba6721#block-5ff6c59c8f081f3586ba6721

    8:27

    So we are going to have to do this again every 2-3 years.....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,177
    TOPPING said:

    So surely on those terms Israel is off the scale. It would be very interesting ( @Malmesbury looking at you here) to have daily Israeli case numbers.
    - Fire up Chrome
    - https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general
    - Select the option to translate into english
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited January 2021

    I don’t remember that.
    But if true, Jo Brand was/is an irresponsible idiot.
    But if true !%^*$&^%f6cjing3&I

    https://tinyurl.com/y62dv6fr

    She did it on the BBC.

    I think I would class it as worse than "pick up a rife", as most nut-jobs (at least in the UK) haven't got a rifle to pick up.

    But, it is dead easy for a nut-job to get hold of acid.
  • TOPPING said:

    Elect the LibDems who wanted an NHS hypothecated tax.

    But as I have said for now this is the third time, the country doesn't want to spend more on the NHS.
    We don't need to spend more on the NHS, we need to spend the money better. Running all of these trusts with the expensive management and IT and HR etc etc is wasteful. Paying GPs to run CCGs is wasteful. Cut out all of the "free market" overlays and spend the money on the front line.

    This is how the Tories have managed to both rightly claim they are spending record amounts on the NHS whilst presiding over front line cuts to services. All the money in the world just not going where its needed.
  • Jonathan Haidt: the political chaos isn't over yet (done recently, before yesterday's event)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKGQkmf-EUA
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    DougSeal said:

    Wsan't there a GE in December 2019?
    Invalid because it was held under FPTP apparently. *shrugs shoulders*

    I don't like FPTP but it's the rules of the game, work to change it within the system.
  • TOPPING said:

    So surely on those terms Israel is off the scale. It would be very interesting ( @Malmesbury looking at you here) to have daily Israeli case numbers.
    Oh yes - Israel is streets ahead of everyone else with 17 shots per 100 (not sure how many of those are second shots but it's over one in ten who have received the first shot I'm sure).

    Actually, case rates are not yet down in Israel, and indeed the average has been rising, but that's not unexpected. One in ten is brilliant but isn't THAT many, and many of those are very recent and first shot.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,530

    Oh yes - Israel is streets ahead of everyone else with 17 shots per 100 (not sure how many of those are second shots but it's over one in ten who have received the first shot I'm sure).

    Actually, case rates are not yet down in Israel, and indeed the average has been rising, but that's not unexpected. One in ten is brilliant but isn't THAT many, and many of those are very recent and first shot.
    They're also using quite a lot on anyone who wants one (i.e. not exclusively old and vulnerable people).
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,302
    I enjoyed waching all most all of yesterday's chaos but the Everton 'Pride of Merseyside' banner on the balcony of the Capitol was the kek cherry on the lmao cake.
  • RH1992 said:

    FBPE Twitter having a normal one today. Comparing controversial but legal courses of action (or if not legal, overturned in a court of law using due process) to armed rebellion against an elected legislature.

    https://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1347136297983496193

    He's the numpty I've seen others share who does an insane 'this week in Tory' (or something like that) collating insanely out of context or extreme criticisms like our very own Scott. Completely off the deep end.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,287

    Ah, that might even sting if it wasn't that it was precisely the line being pushed by Toby and his disciples for well over a week now, if it hadn't been posted by someone who had been face down in the covid data-wrangling/denialist swamp since early March, and if it wasn't right in the middle of a stream of "Hey, the death rate is nothing special if you look at it like this, honest!" posted directly after a graph that's been cropping up wherever denialists post.

    I might even think, "Hey, maybe he was just making a point about how unfortunate it was that the alarms had been rung before; was there a crisis before or were they crying wolf?"

    Leaping straight back into "hey, deaths are nothing special, isn't it strange how they vary?" does weaken the chances of that, though.
    There's no hope for you!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,775
    TOPPING said:

    On your screen on the CDS trading floor?
    Pretty much. When the Crash happened I was on a trading floor and it was at an institution as stuffed full of toxic matter (other than me) as any in the City. I'm afraid we're talking ABN AMRO.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited January 2021
    Whatever the difference in suffering, images are almost everything our society. That image of the Capitol swept round like a burning cauldron of crowds, like a renaissance painting, or the man standing and menacingly gesturing at the senate dais in his furry outfit, are going to become negative icons for decades to come, almost like the 9-11 images.
  • So we are going to have to do this again every 2-3 years.....
    We might well have to have routine booster shots. That really shouldn't be a problem once we've got the system going and can run the vaccinations all through the year.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,306
    edited January 2021
    When Jenrick’s involved the phrase is usually ‘very good news for his millions’.
  • DougSeal said:

    Wsan't there a GE in December 2019?
    The point, such as it is, was presumably that Johnson started his term as PM without an election.

    It's a daft point of course as we don't have a Presidential system - we elect a party in the full knowledge that they can and do make leadership changes. He may as well say it's undemocratic in the US because the Secretary of State sometimes changes (and indeed you don't know who will be appointed SoS when you elect the President - it's normally a decision in the transition).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,727

    So we are going to have to do this again every 2-3 years.....
    Christ, if that is all it takes to get us out of this nightmare, a quick jab in the arm once every 2-3 years, I shall give prayerful thanks to the Good Lord, and Big Pharma, on a daily basis

    Incidentally, I wonder how many people will be moaning about "Big Pharma" from now on. Big drug companies are potentially saving the world, today.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,287
    edited January 2021

    But if true !%^*$&^%f6cjing3&I

    https://tinyurl.com/y62dv6fr

    She did it on the BBC.

    I think I would class it as worse than "pick up a rife", as most nut-jobs (at least in the UK) haven't got a rifle to pick up.

    But, it is dead easy for a nut-job to get hold of acid.
    "“don khaki, pick up a rifle and head for the front lines” is what Farage said he would do.

    If that is an incitement to violence then very few military analogies can be made or metaphors be used without willful misinterpretation and faux outrage following,
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    She did, in fairness, swiftly apologise.

    It was clearly out of order, but I don't think comparing comedy with politics is all that helpful. Laughter is a nervous reaction and a lot of comedy does get close to the line (in that case it was clearly over). Politics doesn't need to get anywhere near - it can afford to be somewhat bland very often, and should do as it matters more than comedy, frankly.
    I think the problem is it gives people ideas, frankly.

    If I was a politician (any politician of any stripe), I would be very, very nervous about talk of throwing acid even in jest.

    Politicians out canvassing are virtually defenceless against it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,530
    Dura_Ace said:

    I enjoyed waching all most all of yesterday's chaos but the Everton 'Pride of Merseyside' banner on the balcony of the Capitol was the kek cherry on the lmao cake.

    :lol:

    https://twitter.com/ballslikeThiago/status/1347144741671096326
  • BBC staff have been told to wear 'social distancing devices' which will beep if they get too close to another person.

    In an email today, workers in 'key BBC locations' were told they will need to wear the technology which will alert them if they are less than two metres apart from someone else.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9121867/BBC-staff-wear-social-distancing-proximity-devices-office.html
  • But if true !%^*$&^%f6cjing3&I

    https://tinyurl.com/y62dv6fr

    She did it on the BBC.

    I think I would class it as worse than "pick up a rife", as most nut-jobs (at least in the UK) haven't got a rifle to pick up.

    But, it is dead easy for a nut-job to get hold of acid.
    How often have rifle attacks been on the news in recent years in this country?
    How often have acid attacks been on the news in recent years in this country?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,453
    edited January 2021
    Leon said:

    Christ, if that is all it takes to get us out of this nightmare, a quick jab in the arm once every 2-3 years, I shall give prayerful thanks to the Good Lord, and Big Pharma, on a daily basis

    Incidentally, I wonder how many people will be moaning about "Big Pharma" from now on. Big drug companies are potentially saving the world, today.
    Jezza is on that bandwagon....didn't Owen Jones write pieces very angry at them as well.
  • tlg86 said:

    :lol:

    https://twitter.com/ballslikeThiago/status/1347144741671096326
    Time for Everton to be demoted to the Conference.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    When Jenrick’s involved the phrase is usually ‘very good news for his millions’.
    Also took the Tories, and Westminster generally, rather too long. The Scots seem to have moved much more quickly once they got their parliament back open (both for leaseholds and for feudal superiorities which had some practical effects in common, including the scope for abuse).
This discussion has been closed.