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Dangerous myths – politicalbetting.com

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    isam said:

    Looks like deleting tweets is all the rage today.

    https://twitter.com/NickCFarrer/status/1347123294915489792

    To be fair, if one were inclined to be fair, Goodwin fessed up in the tweet the one you pasted was replying to didn't he?

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1347110031234379778?s=20
    But what's the point of deleting them?
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    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    kamski said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Floater said:

    BTW France really outdone themselves - up to 3 k vaccinations now........

    Is it literally one doctor for the whole of France doing vaccinations?
    Nope but there is a rule that a consultation is required to get consent 5 days before the vaccination is given.

    This results in a lot of paperwork and delays.
    The French demanding lots of paperwork, I'm shocked I tell you. How many extra people are dying because of this nonsense.
    While we are having arguments about paperwork imposed on doctors coming back to help out with the big V programme, in Europe they’re arguing about paperwork imposed on the general population who want to be vaccinated!

    If, as expected, the U.K. quickly starts rolling out 2m+ vaccines a week, there’s going to be all sorts of questions raised in Europe.
    France isn't all of Europe. But sure, if France doesn't want to use its doses they should pass them on to somewhere that does.

    Use em or lose em!
    Agreed. It’s not just France either. Germany and the U.K. appear to be the only European countries taking the rollout close to seriously.

    Italy seems to be doing as well as they can given supply.
    Italy is actually doing better than Germany as %. Denmark also. That particular chart isn't as useful as the % vaccine rate chart as comparing countries of very different sizes.
    So surely on those terms Israel is off the scale. It would be very interesting ( @Malmesbury looking at you here) to have daily Israeli case numbers.
    Oh yes - Israel is streets ahead of everyone else with 17 shots per 100 (not sure how many of those are second shots but it's over one in ten who have received the first shot I'm sure).

    Actually, case rates are not yet down in Israel, and indeed the average has been rising, but that's not unexpected. One in ten is brilliant but isn't THAT many, and many of those are very recent and first shot.
    They're also using quite a lot on anyone who wants one (i.e. not exclusively old and vulnerable people).
    I think there's a case for that. I do worry that we've over-complicated with a lot of groups, the most vulnerable of whom are slower to deal with due to mobility, being in care homes and so on. And that COULD slow the process in a way that's counterproductive.

    It may not, of course. If the bottleneck is elsewhere then I see the point of going for the most vulnerable first. But the Israeli case MIGHT suggest you simply target numbers.

    I understand some have suggested a much simpler priority system at least - basically ultra-vulnerable who'd have a very high chance of needing special care, any pensioner, then everyone else.
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    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sir John Bell, regius professor at Oxford University and an adviser to the UK's Vaccine Taskforce, told The Telegraph he believes the vaccine will 'work well' and become available in time for the mid-February target.

    Britain has already struck a deal for 30million doses of the vaccine, with the option of ordering 22million more. It is hoped supplies could arrive in time to help the Government fulfill its ambitious promise of vaccinating 13million Brits by mid-February.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9122173/Single-dose-vaccine-Johnson-Johnson-rolled-Britain-month.html

    Well 30m one-shot jabs is going help massively.

    What an awesome performance by the global pharmaceutical industry, there’s at least five vaccines out there around the world now, and a few more such as the J&J working through the approval process.
    Are there any serious efforts (other than the Australian one*) that failed/look like they will fail? Remarkable if not.

    *Even that worked, IIRC, but was shelved for the unfortunate side effect of making HIV tests return positive. If there hadn't been alternatives I guess we'd be working on a new HIV test or a tweak to that vaccine to avoid that unfortunate side effect.
    A number of very well regarded academics explained right at the start of this pandemic that they didn't think creating a vaccine was very hard, due to having a number of weakness that the academic community already have a fairly good idea how to attack. COVID was described as the equivalent of a high school dropout, compared to the honours student that is HIV / AIDS.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,544

    Looks like deleting tweets is all the rage today.

    https://twitter.com/NickCFarrer/status/1347123294915489792

    Fcuking hell.
    I see the Great Forgetting has started.
    Quick, get some statues knocked up!

    They are the only way history can be preserved from revisionists.
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    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Sandpit said:

    Sir John Bell, regius professor at Oxford University and an adviser to the UK's Vaccine Taskforce, told The Telegraph he believes the vaccine will 'work well' and become available in time for the mid-February target.

    Britain has already struck a deal for 30million doses of the vaccine, with the option of ordering 22million more. It is hoped supplies could arrive in time to help the Government fulfill its ambitious promise of vaccinating 13million Brits by mid-February.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9122173/Single-dose-vaccine-Johnson-Johnson-rolled-Britain-month.html

    Well 30m one-shot jabs is going help massively.

    What an awesome performance by the global pharmaceutical industry, there’s at least five vaccines out there around the world now, and a few more such as the J&J working through the approval process.
    Novovax just entered Phase 3 in the US. Like this Oxford AZ vaccine, this will be a high volume manufacturing vaccine.

    For a good article on the status and relative merits of the leading Western vaccines (and what type of approach they use), see this article:
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,911
    isam said:

    Looks like deleting tweets is all the rage today.

    https://twitter.com/NickCFarrer/status/1347123294915489792

    To be fair, if one were inclined to be fair, Goodwin fessed up in the tweet the one you pasted was replying to didn't he?

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1347110031234379778?s=20
    Goodwin has been arse-licking Trump for four years. His belated 'epiphany moment' was somewhat unconvincing.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116
    Foxy said:

    Looks like deleting tweets is all the rage today.

    https://twitter.com/NickCFarrer/status/1347123294915489792

    Fcuking hell.
    I see the Great Forgetting has started.
    Quick, get some statues knocked up!

    They are the only way history can be preserved from revisionists.
    I am now trying to visualise how you knock up a statue.

    I've got as far as trying to work out how and where you would insert the flint dildo...
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,322
    TimT said:

    I wholly agree with Cyclefree. The GOP has been complicit in all of this from the get-go. It is why I, a lifelong small government advocate, am pleased beyond description with the result in Georgia. The GOP needs to be razed to the ground to excise the cancer that it has knowingly and cynically let grow within it. They have to prove to me that they are a party that truly believes in and abides by the constitution, and puts this above partisan and personal political gain before I'd ever again consider supporting the party at a federal level.

    Fortunately, there are signs amongst courageous state-level Republicans that there are some with the moral fortitude to do this necessary rebuilding. America, like all democracies, needs a strong loyal alternative party capable of government. The GOP currently does not fit that bill, epiphanies from Pence, McConnell and Graham on Epiphany notwithstanding.

    Well said. I see that the YouGov poll shows that 45% of Republican voters think that the storming of the Capitol was a good idea (vs 43% who don't, 6% who aren't sure, and an endearingly oblivious 6% who are unaware of anything happening or perhaps don't know what the Capitol is). The issue of "who is to blame" is irrelevant to the 45%t proportion, since if it's a good thing then nobody should be blamed.

    There are however significant minorities of Republicans who disagree (27% feel it was a threat to democracy, 28% do feel Trump was at least to some extent to blame), which gives a base to rebuild on.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,883
    But it's exactly the same on the other side. Whenever the BLM/antifa types go over the top, and shoot people, or burn down entire blocks, they often claim it was secret Proud Boys or Trumpites, doing it under cover to discredit them

    https://www.westword.com/news/denver-riots-antifa-group-on-violence-claims-11722355

    America is in a right old pickle.
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    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,426

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Best pals

    Can I play this game as well?


    Surely every major global politician of the last four years will have a smiley photo of him or herself standing alongside Donald the Disgraced. He was the US Prez. They all wanted to be his friend, at least at first.
    Surely that one with Salmond was before he was President?
    Doubt that Salmond will ever be prez of an Indy Scotland now.
    Has Johnson dashed your hopes of a second referendum to that extent?
    Nope, a mild joke on your form of words, plus an accurate measure of how Salmond is currently perceived in Scotland. I know the PB Scotch experts need all the help they can get.
    Salmond is regarded as a bad smell, even by much (if not all) of his former fan club. I don't think he is altogether reconciled to being placed in The Donald Club of embarrassing has-beens, which is why the ScotParl investigation into the Salmond/SNP related murk is worth keeping an eye on. He has yet to testify.
    Maybe it will all come to nothing. And maybe not. I honestly don't know.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,544

    In all the excitement, did we miss this piece of probable good news?

    Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine is likely to offer protection of up to a couple of years, its chief executive has said, even though more data is still needed to make a definitive assessment.
    ...
    “The nightmare scenario that was described in the media in the spring with a vaccine only working a month or two is, I think, out of the window,” Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said. “The antibody decay generated by the vaccine in humans goes down very slowly [...] We believe there will be protection potentially for a couple of years.”

    Bancel added his company was about to prove its vaccine would also be effective against variants of the coronavirus seen in Britain and South Africa.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jan/07/coronavirus-live-news-england-sees-record-hospitalisations-arizona-is-covid-hot-spot-of-the-world?page=with:block-5ff6c59c8f081f3586ba6721#block-5ff6c59c8f081f3586ba6721

    8:27

    That would be after the second dose was given 4 weeks later.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855

    Sandpit said:



    To be fair to Jo Brand (yes, I know) it was a pre-recorded programme, so it was up to the editor which jokes made the cut and which stayed between the live audience and the participants.

    Anyone who’s ever attended a recording of HIGNFY or Mock The Week knows that there’s an awful lot of well-over-the-line jokes told in these settings, that no-one expects to actually be aired.

    I prefer Jo Brand to the endless minor public school, Oxbridge wankers doing what passes for comedy on R4. And, of course, I don't think Jo was recommending it as a course of action. She was looking for a gag & did not think.

    There is a long tradition of throwing flour or eggs or rotting vegetables as political protest.

    And, of course, a well-aimed egg can cheer the hearts of millions.

    But, even joking about throwing acid takes the cheeriness away.
    Very true. It was in poor taste and landed badly, but that’s what comedians do. I’m not sure she ever expected it to air, but the editors and the BBC thought it was fine.

    Which tells us a lot more about the BBC, than it does about the comedian.

    Frankie Boyle’s infamous “Princess Diana Joke” on MTW wasn’t seen for several years after it was recorded, was finally released only on an 18-rated outtakes DVD, never shown on TV.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,399

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Best pals

    Can I play this game as well?


    Surely every major global politician of the last four years will have a smiley photo of him or herself standing alongside Donald the Disgraced. He was the US Prez. They all wanted to be his friend, at least at first.
    Just how massive is Salmond's head? Trump is 6' 3" and yet Salmond looks like Hagrid in that image.....
    There's a popular Father Ted meme that might explain the apparent size difference
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,228

    A major argument for impeaching Trump is he would not be able to stand in 2024 as I understand it.

    I rather suspect that this has turned into a self resolving problem
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    "We are not Germany in 1933. But we may be Munich, 1923. On 8 November of that year, a couple of thousand Nazis staged a failed putsch to topple the Weimar Republic. Ten years later the same insurrectionists seized power in Germany – through electoral means."

    indeed.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2021
    Leon said:

    But it's exactly the same on the other side. Whenever the BLM/antifa types go over the top, and shoot people, or burn down entire blocks, they often claim it was secret Proud Boys or Trumpites, doing it under cover to discredit them

    https://www.westword.com/news/denver-riots-antifa-group-on-violence-claims-11722355

    America is in a right old pickle.
    There was plenty on social media trying to claim one of the rioters tattoos was a white power symbol...it was actually from the video game, Dishonoured.
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    isam said:

    Looks like deleting tweets is all the rage today.

    https://twitter.com/NickCFarrer/status/1347123294915489792

    To be fair, if one were inclined to be fair, Goodwin fessed up in the tweet the one you pasted was replying to didn't he?

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1347110031234379778?s=20
    Step 1: This.

    Step 2: This is what I think now.
    Step 2 (i): Delete step 1.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Fake news sells because it is personalised and more exciting and interesting than real news. People can live years and decades in a fake news bubble and may actually be happier than those of whose who put up with the real thing as the world becomes more orderly and clearer to them. If only their enemies could be defeated we would be living in heaven - it is not that different to fundamentalist religions.

    Just like extreme religions, it must be tackled, I don't have the answers but former insiders suggest taxing the data it relies on heavily is part of the solution.
    Years of crying wolf don't help.


    Crying wolf or telling the truth that there was indeed a winter emergency most years, albeit one that by its very nature was time-limited?
    Yeah could be a bit of both really, but when its the same story, we are at breaking point, every year its harder to make the case that this time it's really serious
    Beyond breaking point this time, sadly.
    Yep that's it. Proving @isam's point - all you can do is ramp up the rhetoric.
    I took his point to be that the reason some people are not believing there's a massive NHS crisis due to Covid which could lead to the system collapsing is because in previous years there have been less serious NHS crises not due to Covid which did not lead to the system collapsing.

    Not sure my reply proves that point but, yes, I'm sure some people do think that way. Winter. NHS. Same old, same old.

    What can you do?
    Elect the LibDems who wanted an NHS hypothecated tax.

    But as I have said for now this is the third time, the country doesn't want to spend more on the NHS.
    We don't need to spend more on the NHS, we need to spend the money better. Running all of these trusts with the expensive management and IT and HR etc etc is wasteful. Paying GPs to run CCGs is wasteful. Cut out all of the "free market" overlays and spend the money on the front line.

    This is how the Tories have managed to both rightly claim they are spending record amounts on the NHS whilst presiding over front line cuts to services. All the money in the world just not going where its needed.
    I also bet the trusts are stuffed with their chums etc , sucking up bulk of the cash.
    Would you have any evidence to back that up ?

    I could make the same suggestion re other parties
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    isamisam Posts: 40,901

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Dangerous myths indeed, we're seeing it here as well with Covid-19 deniers as Neil O'Brien has pointed out as a prime example.

    The gold standard ONS produce some excellent stuff about excess deaths

    https://twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1346862701910360065

    and this is one of the replies

    https://twitter.com/kinglerooy/status/1346863411213307905

    Why are they increasing so much yearly from the early 2000s? From 2010 to about 2017 is a similar line to this year
    You already posted the reason yourself: the lack of funding to the NHS by Conservative governments resulting in successive winter crises.
    Doubt it's that, the increase actually starts at 2004 it seems
    You're misunderstanding the graph. Anything negative is indicative of improving outcomes. The rate of improvement may have slowed until about 2012, but it was only after that that outcomes started to deteriorate.
    2014-2019?
    These years are all above the x-axis, therefore indicative of increasing excess deaths. What you've got to grasp is that because of the moving baseline, the graph is already of a derivative, so things are getting worse all the while the graph is positive. The more positive, the faster the excess deaths are increasing. So excess deaths were still increasing from 2014 to 2019, though not as rapidly by 2019.
    Does the increase in population from 2004 onwards have anything to do with the increase/slower decrease in excess deaths?

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/population
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Leon said:

    But it's exactly the same on the other side. Whenever the BLM/antifa types go over the top, and shoot people, or burn down entire blocks, they often claim it was secret Proud Boys or Trumpites, doing it under cover to discredit them

    https://www.westword.com/news/denver-riots-antifa-group-on-violence-claims-11722355

    America is in a right old pickle.
    There was plenty on social media trying to claim one of the rioters tattoos was a white power symbol...it was actually from the video game, Dishonoured.
    I think I know the one you mean and at one stage some guy in USA whose stream I was watching thought it might be a hammer and sickle.........

    To be fair to him he did only suggest that for a second and then shrugged and said for all he knew it might be something to do with a video game
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    isamisam Posts: 40,901

    isam said:

    Looks like deleting tweets is all the rage today.

    https://twitter.com/NickCFarrer/status/1347123294915489792

    To be fair, if one were inclined to be fair, Goodwin fessed up in the tweet the one you pasted was replying to didn't he?

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1347110031234379778?s=20
    Step 1: This.

    Step 2: This is what I think now.
    Step 2 (i): Delete step 1.
    Deleting stuff is pretty weak, especially as they can be easily found. I have probably done it myself, although no one would bother to try and find them
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,248
    edited January 2021
    RH1992 said:

    Looks like deleting tweets is all the rage today.

    https://twitter.com/NickCFarrer/status/1347123294915489792

    Reminds me of this perennial Tweet.

    https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1151669588808986624
    It's very good and could, of course, be written at almost any time in history.

    Where did all the millions of Brits who were all for 1930s appeasement go? How about the Nazi supporters in Germany? And the fascists in Spain after the death of Franco? (Not saying these things are equivalent - just they are views people plainly didn't want to associate with later).

    None of these people went anywhere, of course. They simply conveniently forgot, lied if necessary to themselves and others, and got on with their lives. And that's a good thing. Of course you pursue the concentration camp monsters to the ends of the Earth, but the guy who cheered on at Nuremberg? Leave him be.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    This thread has agreed to an orderly transition.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2021
    This thread has bene shut down like the House of Congress after a Trump rally....
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,602
    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    That is very good news for millions

    Long overdue
    When Jenrick’s involved the phrase is usually ‘very good news for his millions’.
    Also took the Tories, and Westminster generally, rather too long. The Scots seem to have moved much more quickly once they got their parliament back open (both for leaseholds and for feudal superiorities which had some practical effects in common, including the scope for abuse).
    I thought Scotland was totally freehold apart from the land sold by MOD , where they chose to coin it in as they could avoid Scottish Government rules.
    It is now AFAIK - there was some leaseholding ion places, in fact. Feu duties are of course a different thing, though similar in that you had to pay up and that thje laird could abuse it in some cases. The MoD thing is a new one to me.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116

    This thread has bene shut down like the House of Congress after a Trump rally....

    Shit down :lol:
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,069

    Apologies if this point has been made, the Beer Hall Putsch was a semi-comic fiasco with a few deaths. The March on Rome was also less than sweeping and heroic.

    It's a good point. Fascists tend to be inherently ridiculous figures who are easy to dismiss until one day you find them murdering your family.
    I always thought that TV series about the Nazis ("a warning from history") had a fantastically good title. Many students of fascism called Trump out as a fascist early on and I have always viewed him as firmly within that tradition.
    Luckily he has had no real plan for government, otherwise he would have been much more effective. But his presidency has provided new warnings that the US would be wise not to ignore. The next fascist president may be a lot more dangerous.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Best pals

    Can I play this game as well?


    Surely every major global politician of the last four years will have a smiley photo of him or herself standing alongside Donald the Disgraced. He was the US Prez. They all wanted to be his friend, at least at first.
    Just how massive is Salmond's head? Trump is 6' 3" and yet Salmond looks like Hagrid in that image.....
    There's a popular Father Ted meme that might explain the apparent size difference
    That only works if Trump was trying to get as far away from....oh.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,390

    Sir John Bell, regius professor at Oxford University and an adviser to the UK's Vaccine Taskforce, told The Telegraph he believes the vaccine will 'work well' and become available in time for the mid-February target.

    Britain has already struck a deal for 30million doses of the vaccine, with the option of ordering 22million more. It is hoped supplies could arrive in time to help the Government fulfill its ambitious promise of vaccinating 13million Brits by mid-February.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9122173/Single-dose-vaccine-Johnson-Johnson-rolled-Britain-month.html

    I'd be surprised if we get any before the end of February, but its approval would nonetheless be excellent news.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,249
    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    the slowest moving, anti-vaxxer, state subsidised addicted member.

    Are we talking about @Dura_Ace on PB here? I don't think he'd like to be termed as slow moving.
    Or state subsidised
    Any more directly or even mainly although I bet he gets some kind of HMF pension.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,665

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:
    The thinking behind my theory that the candidate with more personality has a big advantage that VI polls miss. Modern life is all about killer soundbites and image, and there are more people are fooled by them than bother to really think
    America in 2016-2020: the Celebration of Ignorance. Sums up Trump and those who voted or him. Such a pity it was allowed to flourish by the Democrats and their Celebration of Nepotism.
    Nepotism? She was a former Secretary of State and Senator.

    There's many reasons to criticise Hillary Clinton but to say she got the nomination down to nepotism is a bizarre reading of the facts, even more so when you consider she won the popular vote.

    Heck you can say she was eminently more qualified to be POTUS than the GOP's last bit of nepotism, back in 2000 when they picked the son of a former President.
    She was a shockingly bad candidate. She lost to Donald Trump. I rest my case.

    The Democrats seem in thrall to family dynasties. Kennedy's, Clintons.... Not that the Republican are much better. The 2016 member of the Bush dynasty was also a shockingly bad candidate. He lost to Donald Trump.
    Family dynasties are a problem in all parties on both sides of the Atlantic. Whether you are a Kinnock, Rees Mogg, Milliband, Johnson, Hurd, Benn or Gummer, the family connection is a huge advantage.
    Yes, I have always thought it an amusing irony that the hereditary principle was not extinguished by the Wedgewood Benn family with the Peerage Act 1963. That said it is unsurprising that children or nieces or nephews follow in the footsteps of their forebears. It happens in all sorts of other professions and walks of life
    It does. Whilst Emily Benn is apparently a decent and talented person it was risible when she talked about being a normal person, when normal people, no matter how brilliant they are, dont get selected as parliamentary candidates at age 17, without a dynasty.
    Mhairi Black was selected, and indeed elected, at a very young age and with no political dynasty behind her.

    Obviously it happens a lot more often for people from political dynasties, but it does happen.
    Even she wasnt 17. Exceptional occasions occur but as rare as it is it just happened to be a Benn on that one? Give me a break.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,249

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Best pals

    Can I play this game as well?


    Surely every major global politician of the last four years will have a smiley photo of him or herself standing alongside Donald the Disgraced. He was the US Prez. They all wanted to be his friend, at least at first.
    Just how massive is Salmond's head? Trump is 6' 3" and yet Salmond looks like Hagrid in that image.....
    Salmond manages to make Trump seem the normal one.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,665
    Leon said:

    In all the excitement, did we miss this piece of probable good news?

    Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine is likely to offer protection of up to a couple of years, its chief executive has said, even though more data is still needed to make a definitive assessment.
    ...
    “The nightmare scenario that was described in the media in the spring with a vaccine only working a month or two is, I think, out of the window,” Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said. “The antibody decay generated by the vaccine in humans goes down very slowly [...] We believe there will be protection potentially for a couple of years.”

    Bancel added his company was about to prove its vaccine would also be effective against variants of the coronavirus seen in Britain and South Africa.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jan/07/coronavirus-live-news-england-sees-record-hospitalisations-arizona-is-covid-hot-spot-of-the-world?page=with:block-5ff6c59c8f081f3586ba6721#block-5ff6c59c8f081f3586ba6721

    8:27

    So we are going to have to do this again every 2-3 years.....
    Christ, if that is all it takes to get us out of this nightmare, a quick jab in the arm once every 2-3 years, I shall give prayerful thanks to the Good Lord, and Big Pharma, on a daily basis

    Incidentally, I wonder how many people will be moaning about "Big Pharma" from now on. Big drug companies are potentially saving the world, today.
    We are very good at compartmentalising. We dont give gratitude either. We expect them to save us and make no money doing so either.
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,887

    Dangerous myths indeed, we're seeing it here as well with Covid-19 deniers as Neil O'Brien has pointed out as a prime example.

    The gold standard ONS produce some excellent stuff about excess deaths

    https://twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1346862701910360065

    People communicating statistics need to be really, really careful what they write.
    "14% of babies do not die before their first birthday means"
    "up to 86% of babies do die before their first birthday", usually with the implication that "86% die before their first birthday".


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    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Best pals

    Can I play this game as well?


    Surely every major global politician of the last four years will have a smiley photo of him or herself standing alongside Donald the Disgraced. He was the US Prez. They all wanted to be his friend, at least at first.
    Surely that one with Salmond was before he was President?
    Doubt that Salmond will ever be prez of an Indy Scotland now.
    Has Johnson dashed your hopes of a second referendum to that extent?
    Nope, a mild joke on your form of words, plus an accurate measure of how Salmond is currently perceived in Scotland. I know the PB Scotch experts need all the help they can get.
    Salmond is regarded as a bad smell, even by much (if not all) of his former fan club. I don't think he is altogether reconciled to being placed in The Donald Club of embarrassing has-beens, which is why the ScotParl investigation into the Salmond/SNP related murk is worth keeping an eye on. He has yet to testify.
    Maybe it will all come to nothing. And maybe not. I honestly don't know.
    Salmond still has his fans, somewhat outnumbered by his knockers (ho, ho) nowadays. Personally I’m comfortable believing up to a point that he was treated unfairly by various parties, but also that he shouldn’t be in a political position again.

    Depends how much vengeful Gotterdamerung Eck wants. He could still cause a lot of damage if he wanted to, but runs the risk of going down in history as setting the Indy cause back by a (Unionist) generation. He’s not a stupid guy whatever else he is, and the various alternative indy vehicles supposedly talking up the Salmondite cause seem utterly useless.
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    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Dangerous myths indeed, we're seeing it here as well with Covid-19 deniers as Neil O'Brien has pointed out as a prime example.

    The gold standard ONS produce some excellent stuff about excess deaths

    https://twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1346862701910360065

    and this is one of the replies

    https://twitter.com/kinglerooy/status/1346863411213307905

    Why are they increasing so much yearly from the early 2000s? From 2010 to about 2017 is a similar line to this year
    You already posted the reason yourself: the lack of funding to the NHS by Conservative governments resulting in successive winter crises.
    Doubt it's that, the increase actually starts at 2004 it seems
    You're misunderstanding the graph. Anything negative is indicative of improving outcomes. The rate of improvement may have slowed until about 2012, but it was only after that that outcomes started to deteriorate.
    2014-2019?
    These years are all above the x-axis, therefore indicative of increasing excess deaths. What you've got to grasp is that because of the moving baseline, the graph is already of a derivative, so things are getting worse all the while the graph is positive. The more positive, the faster the excess deaths are increasing. So excess deaths were still increasing from 2014 to 2019, though not as rapidly by 2019.
    Does the increase in population from 2004 onwards have anything to do with the increase/slower decrease in excess deaths?

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/population
    Given that the increase in population was, I believe, largely due to the immigration of younger people, it's hard to see how it can have made much direct difference since very few of them will have died, and the figures for excess deaths are relative to the death rates of previous years, not the size of population. Of course, they may helped the NHS to maintain a falling death rate by providing an ample supply of staff for its hospitals.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,390

    I have this feeling that with delay of supply and slowness of ramp up in vaccinations, government will again have overpromised and under-delivered and get absolutely smashed from pillar to post come March....then April will we will be swimming in vaccines, from Pfizer, AZN, J&J, Moderna...but a bit like testing, where capacity is now very good, the damage will have been done to the government reputation and all that people will remember is slow roll out (despite doing better than basically every other comparable countries, just like testing)

    It is only the media that will mind if the target is missed by a few weeks or a few days. The public really don't care, so long as the job gets done reasonably efficiently. This is why I can't understand why Johnson has to make these bigger, better, hostage to fortune pledges that seldom succeed.
    Because he is addicted to the grand gesture. and has no concept of the details involved.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,665

    DougSeal said:

    RH1992 said:

    FBPE Twitter having a normal one today. Comparing controversial but legal courses of action (or if not legal, overturned in a court of law using due process) to armed rebellion against an elected legislature.

    https://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1347136297983496193

    Wsan't there a GE in December 2019?
    The point, such as it is, was presumably that Johnson started his term as PM without an election.

    It's a daft point of course as we don't have a Presidential system - we elect a party in the full knowledge that they can and do make leadership changes. He may as well say it's undemocratic in the US because the Secretary of State sometimes changes (and indeed you don't know who will be appointed SoS when you elect the President - it's normally a decision in the transition).
    Yes, people get very silly comparing apples and oranges when it comes to different systems.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,602
    TOPPING said:

    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    the slowest moving, anti-vaxxer, state subsidised addicted member.

    Are we talking about @Dura_Ace on PB here? I don't think he'd like to be termed as slow moving.
    Or state subsidised
    Any more directly or even mainly although I bet he gets some kind of HMF pension.
    For which we had worked - so that is not a 'subsidy'.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,390
    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sir John Bell, regius professor at Oxford University and an adviser to the UK's Vaccine Taskforce, told The Telegraph he believes the vaccine will 'work well' and become available in time for the mid-February target.

    Britain has already struck a deal for 30million doses of the vaccine, with the option of ordering 22million more. It is hoped supplies could arrive in time to help the Government fulfill its ambitious promise of vaccinating 13million Brits by mid-February.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9122173/Single-dose-vaccine-Johnson-Johnson-rolled-Britain-month.html

    Well 30m one-shot jabs is going help massively.

    What an awesome performance by the global pharmaceutical industry, there’s at least five vaccines out there around the world now, and a few more such as the J&J working through the approval process.
    Are there any serious efforts (other than the Australian one*) that failed/look like they will fail? Remarkable if not.

    *Even that worked, IIRC, but was shelved for the unfortunate side effect of making HIV tests return positive. If there hadn't been alternatives I guess we'd be working on a new HIV test or a tweak to that vaccine to avoid that unfortunate side effect.
    Hasn't the Sanofi/GSK effort gone back to the drawing board ?
    Two of the bigger vaccine companies out there.
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    NEW THREAD

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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,818

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Best pals

    Can I play this game as well?


    Surely every major global politician of the last four years will have a smiley photo of him or herself standing alongside Donald the Disgraced. He was the US Prez. They all wanted to be his friend, at least at first.
    Surely that one with Salmond was before he was President?
    Doubt that Salmond will ever be prez of an Indy Scotland now.
    Has Johnson dashed your hopes of a second referendum to that extent?
    Nope, a mild joke on your form of words, plus an accurate measure of how Salmond is currently perceived in Scotland. I know the PB Scotch experts need all the help they can get.
    Salmond is regarded as a bad smell, even by much (if not all) of his former fan club. I don't think he is altogether reconciled to being placed in The Donald Club of embarrassing has-beens, which is why the ScotParl investigation into the Salmond/SNP related murk is worth keeping an eye on. He has yet to testify.
    Maybe it will all come to nothing. And maybe not. I honestly don't know.
    Absolute bollox, typical unionist blinkered view.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,665
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sir John Bell, regius professor at Oxford University and an adviser to the UK's Vaccine Taskforce, told The Telegraph he believes the vaccine will 'work well' and become available in time for the mid-February target.

    Britain has already struck a deal for 30million doses of the vaccine, with the option of ordering 22million more. It is hoped supplies could arrive in time to help the Government fulfill its ambitious promise of vaccinating 13million Brits by mid-February.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9122173/Single-dose-vaccine-Johnson-Johnson-rolled-Britain-month.html

    Well 30m one-shot jabs is going help massively.

    What an awesome performance by the global pharmaceutical industry, there’s at least five vaccines out there around the world now, and a few more such as the J&J working through the approval process.
    Jezza disagrees....they are absolute filth. The NHS should have made their own.
    Capitalism always wins!

    (To be perfectly fair, China and Russia have made good vaccines too).
    Both capitalists
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,665

    I have this feeling that with delay of supply and slowness of ramp up in vaccinations, government will again have overpromised and under-delivered and get absolutely smashed from pillar to post come March....then April will we will be swimming in vaccines, from Pfizer, AZN, J&J, Moderna...but a bit like testing, where capacity is now very good, the damage will have been done to the government reputation and all that people will remember is slow roll out (despite doing better than basically every other comparable countries, just like testing)

    Certainly we have started way, way too slowly. And those on PB that seek to absolve the government of any responsibility for a supply-line that it should have been absolutely on top of need to take a long, hard look at themselves.
    That depends what you mean when you associate any defence as suggesting no responsibility for anything, it is quite false.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,665
    edited January 2021

    isam said:

    Looks like deleting tweets is all the rage today.

    https://twitter.com/NickCFarrer/status/1347123294915489792

    To be fair, if one were inclined to be fair, Goodwin fessed up in the tweet the one you pasted was replying to didn't he?

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1347110031234379778?s=20
    But what's the point of deleting them?
    In fairness people do get mad of you dont delete this stuff, still endorsing whatever was said, and get mad of you do, trying to hide things.

    If you're going to you probably have to state you are doing it and why.
This discussion has been closed.