politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories get to within 2% in the June ComRes online poll for

Lowest Lab lead with ComRes online since Feb 2012.

Very good poll for Con after the general recent widening of the Lab lead post Euros.

CopperSulphate said:

Every time I leave a comment, there's a new topic minutes later.

Where's your God now???

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CopperSulphate said:

Every time I leave a comment, there's a new topic minutes later.

Where's your God now???

He's busy granting me special powers such as the ability to create a new thread on PB whenever I want.

FPT:

foxinsoxuk said:

I think that was predestination, rather than free will. People like to believe that they have free will, and justify their actions, but maybe it is all laid out in advance. Perhaps as the predestined future is unknown our illusion of free will exists only in the mind.

The ancient theological discussion on predestination vs free will does have interesting parallells with modern genetics. For example is homosexuality genetic (predestined) or a product of free choice; or indeed a complex mixture of genetics and nurture (another more complex form of predetermination)?

Charles said:

BobaFett said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

SouthamObserver said:

Smarmeron said:

@BobaFett

"Exactly right. An omnipotent all-good being that let's horrific things happen to the innocent."

It's one of the great misunderstandings among the "religious", God gave us the free will to make the world what we want.
In general we allow it to be made into a hell.
Atheists are no better, or worse.

Giving us free will was surely the ultimate act of evil.

Spoken like a true Labour authoritarian. The man on Primrose Hill knows best.

Why give people the power to inflict pain and suffering on earth and in doing so consign them to spend eternity in hell?

Because free will is what makes us human. Without it we would be no better than the angels. And a damn sight less cool than the Cherubim*


* who, incidentally, are most definitely not little boys with wings and chubby cheeks, despite various attempts to portray them as such...

Free will is one thing but you'd hope God might step in with his pretty formidable countermeasures now and again.

Perhaps he does. It was quite lucky that Churchill existed at the time of Hitler's Germany. Cometh the hour, cometh the man.

We won't have seen the fallout from ED for being photo'd with a copy of the Sun. He is a fool.There is no other possible explanation.

GIN1138 said:

A good poll for Team Blue And an even better polls for the Windsors.

JackW will be pleased.

Surprised PW is higher than HMQ

OKish for Lab and Con, further bad news for the Yellows. UKIP holding up well.

William is younger, albeit balding and has a glamorous wife .... that's today's "Hello!" society for you.

LibDems, you now have permission to panic....

ToryJim said:

Why is it these South American national anthems all sound like they're from 19th C operas?

They were probably mostly composed around then?

corporeal said:

ToryJim said:

Why is it these South American national anthems all sound like they're from 19th C operas?

They were probably mostly composed around then?

Oh I guess, I just find they really are too fast.

MarqueeMark said:

And Osborne 5% more popular than Ed Miliband....




*chortle*

That's because tim isn't here to be on George's case. He was pretty effective at doing him down. Now George is king off all he surveys... until it all goes tits up. !

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Tory/UKIP 50%
Progressives 41%

COA 39%
LAB 34%

Mr. Rentool's right ...... why don't you include the Greens' poll numbers in your total for the so-called "Progressives" (whatever that is supposed to mean) ?

Hmm Nick Clegg's favourable rating of 13% is nearly double his party's share.

Easterross said:

ToryJim said:

Why is it these South American national anthems all sound like they're from 19th C operas?

Because that is when most of them became independent countries.

Yeah but they are all far too fast and flamboyant

peter_from_putney said:

Mike - can I suggest you run a poll of PBers as follows:

Which leader of the Liberal Democrats do you consider would result in the party securing the most seats at the next General Election:

Nick Clegg

Vince Cable

A N Other

If they'd have left the coalition about 2 years ago with Farron...

What is the ETA on Suarez' knee ?

Can anyone see the possibility of a Tory/Labour coalition in the next few years?

What happens if neither can get a working majority or a coalition with the Lib Dems in the 2015 election, then they decide to go to the country again and get the same result?

In fact it might be the only way of them being able to continue to ignore the calls for PR since they'd have more than 50% of the votes between them.

perdix said:

Socrates said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Tory/UKIP 50%
Progressives 41%

COA 39%
LAB 34%

If the next government brings in PR, which is a possibility, the Tories will need to mend their fences with UKIP pretty quickly.

There can be no deal with kippers - too incoherent and shallow.

No deal with the LibDems either - they ratted on Commission-approved Boundary changes. Also doubtful whether their greatly reduced number of seats will be critical either way.

CopperSulphate said:

Can anyone see the possibility of a Tory/Labour coalition in the next few years?

What happens if neither can get a working majority or a coalition with the Lib Dems in the 2015 election, then they decide to go to the country again and get the same result?

In fact it might be the only way of them being able to continue to ignore the calls for PR since they'd have more than 50% of the votes between them.

Only in an emergency.

A major currency/financial crisis (not of either party's making, say the Euro goes mammary glands up) or a major war.

SquareRoot said:

MarqueeMark said:

And Osborne 5% more popular than Ed Miliband....




*chortle*

That's because tim isn't here to be on George's case. He was pretty effective at doing him down. Now George is king off all he surveys... until it all goes tits up. !

tim was very much like Labour - he had certain strengths, but economics ain't one!

TheScreamingEagles said:

CopperSulphate said:

Can anyone see the possibility of a Tory/Labour coalition in the next few years?

What happens if neither can get a working majority or a coalition with the Lib Dems in the 2015 election, then they decide to go to the country again and get the same result?

In fact it might be the only way of them being able to continue to ignore the calls for PR since they'd have more than 50% of the votes between them.

Only in an emergency.

A major currency/financial crisis (not of either party's making, say the Euro goes mammary glands up) or a major war.

I think the only scenario is a major world war. Labour would never do it not even Ed is useless enough to want to emulate Ramsey MacDonald

TheScreamingEagles said:

According to many media sources, Raheem Sterling is starting tonight, just backed him as FGS at 14/1 with Paddy Power.

Is the bet void if he does not play ?

It's looking more and more unlikely that UKIP will be down to 5% by the time of the general election, which is in just 46 weeks' time.

@StigAbell: Pity production journalists tonight, who'll be doing a hell of a job. Papers have to be printed on the final whistle. No late dramas please.

TheScreamingEagles said:

According to many media sources, Raheem Sterling is starting tonight, just backed him as FGS at 14/1 with Paddy Power.

BBC Sport's Dan Roan in Manaus

England v Italy (23:00 BST)

Posted at


"The England team tonight:

"Hart: Johnson, Jagielka, Cahill, Baines; Gerrard, Henderson; Welbeck, Sterling, Rooney; Sturridge."

BobaFett said:

Socrates said:

SandyRentool said:

I was wondering why Uruguay have 4 stars on their badge when they've only only 2 world cups. Answer: they have also won gold at the Olympics twice in the pre-world cup era.

2 + 2 = 4!

Haven't England ever won the Olympics in football?

EDIT: Looked it up. England never have, but Great Britain have three times.

The Olympics is a Mickey Mouse tournament at football. It's just embarrassing that Uruguay count that as two stars.

Their Olympic wins were pre-world cup era. Back then, the Olympic gold medalists were considered to be world champs.

More legit than Man City having 3 stars on their badge, anyway!

Easterross said:

ToryJim said:

Easterross said:

ToryJim said:

Easterross said:

ToryJim said:

Why is it these South American national anthems all sound like they're from 19th C operas?

Because that is when most of them became independent countries.

Yeah but they are all far too fast and flamboyant

Have you noticed how they are still singing about 5 minutes after the music stops? Either they are trying to catch up with the music or singing a very rude 2nd verse. Always reminds me of the Billy Connelly sketch where he suggested we have the Archers theme tune instead of GSTQ.

Don't forget we have a verse of the national anthem that's very rude to those north of Berwick.

only the rebellious ones!! My family was on the winning side. Indeed the head of the family at the time was at the side of the Duke of Cumberland at Culloden.

My family's entanglement with the Royals was alas much earlier including loaning Richard II 20,000 marks of silver.

TheScreamingEagles said:

According to many media sources, Raheem Sterling is starting tonight, just backed him as FGS at 14/1 with Paddy Power.

Excellent bet, especially as if this should prove to be a losing bet, PP will refund should Italy win. In normal circumstances probably a 10/1 shot, with this refund element, probably a 7/1 shot or thereabouts.
BTW, are you backing the outsider in tonight's two games? .... * Chortles *

Good winner for you yesterday.

nigel4england said:

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

According to many media sources, Raheem Sterling is starting tonight, just backed him as FGS at 14/1 with Paddy Power.

BBC Sport's Dan Roan in Manaus

England v Italy (23:00 BST)

Posted at


"The England team tonight:

"Hart: Johnson, Jagielka, Cahill, Baines; Gerrard, Henderson; Welbeck, Sterling, Rooney; Sturridge."

I'm on 1-1 with money back if it is goalless. Also got Cahill anytime scorer at 18/1, he is good at getting on the end of set pieces and with Baines excellent delivery will probably get at least one sight of goal.

Who is the 18/1 with?

@CopperSulphate

One of the massive constitutional changes of this parliament has been the fixed term parliament act. This makes it nigh on impossible for a party that doesn't get a majority to rule as a minority for a few months before going to the country again.

nigel4england said:

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

According to many media sources, Raheem Sterling is starting tonight, just backed him as FGS at 14/1 with Paddy Power.

BBC Sport's Dan Roan in Manaus

England v Italy (23:00 BST)

Posted at


"The England team tonight:

"Hart: Johnson, Jagielka, Cahill, Baines; Gerrard, Henderson; Welbeck, Sterling, Rooney; Sturridge."

I'm on 1-1 with money back if it is goalless. Also got Cahill anytime scorer at 18/1, he is good at getting on the end of set pieces and with Baines excellent delivery will probably get at least one sight of goal.

Seems a good call to me,you kept calling it right on Demichelis and his booking ;-)

AndyJS said:

It's looking more and more unlikely that UKIP will be down to 5% by the time of the general election, which is in just 46 weeks' time.

I agree. I'm expecting about 10% with smaller shares in the key battlegrounds & higher ones where it doesn't matter. Tonight's poll, however, is from the firm that most overstated UKIP on May 22nd and understated CON.

FPT:

fitalass said:

Stuart Winton on Think Scotland Blog - Cybernats bite YeSNP on the bum

I agree, it's terrible to see all this nonsense concocted by the unionists who don't like anyone disagreeing with them. Here's a related perspective (from a Unionist newspaper, no less).

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/14/better-together-mistakes-scottish-independence

"The absence of anything resembling a proper campaign by Better Together has forced it into the realms of fantasy and this is one of them. In its desperation, it now portrays any criticism of the unionist cause as "vile cybernat abuse".

This was embarrassingly apparent in the lamentable television appearance last week by John McTernan, a former Labour special adviser in its bottomless department of special advice. McTernan was talking about some of the abuse JK Rowling had received for donating £1m to the Better Together campaign. As he began visibly lose to all sense of reality, McTernan, who genuinely seemed to be in some distress, began blaming Gunn for the billionaire author's online ordure.

[...]

Behind all the online frivolity and gloriously manufactured sense of outrage, there is a serious warning for Better Together, and one that it needs to heed quickly if blue is to remain in the union jack. The unionists need to be aware of the consequences of constantly seeking to portray the Scottish nationalists as goggle-eyed brigands with personality disorders, as is the case with their ill-judged "Project Fear" campaign. [...] Better Together needs to think much more carefully about its tactics from now on until the death, because this campaign is slipping away from it."

ToryJim said:

Easterross said:

ToryJim said:

Easterross said:

ToryJim said:

Easterross said:

ToryJim said:

Why is it these South American national anthems all sound like they're from 19th C operas?

Because that is when most of them became independent countries.

Yeah but they are all far too fast and flamboyant

Have you noticed how they are still singing about 5 minutes after the music stops? Either they are trying to catch up with the music or singing a very rude 2nd verse. Always reminds me of the Billy Connelly sketch where he suggested we have the Archers theme tune instead of GSTQ.

Don't forget we have a verse of the national anthem that's very rude to those north of Berwick.

only the rebellious ones!! My family was on the winning side. Indeed the head of the family at the time was at the side of the Duke of Cumberland at Culloden.

My family's entanglement with the Royals was alas much earlier including loaning Richard II 20,000 marks of silver.

Irresistible, I have to ask, did they get it back with interest??

peter_from_putney said:

Mike - can I suggest you run a poll of PBers as follows:

Which leader of the Liberal Democrats do you consider would result in the party securing the most seats at the next General Election:

Nick Clegg

Vince Cable

A N Other

Cable is dead in the water so ignore. If Clegg goes before GE15 it will be between Farron/Lamb/Alexander/Davey.

Evening all

Clearly, a poll to settle Conservative nerves after one or two modest YouGov outings this week. In effect, we're almost back to the pre-Euros situation with Labour easing back toward the Conservatives in the low to mid-30s.

The UKIP number continues to vary wildly from poll to poll but seems to be around the mid-teens with the Liberal Democrats having eased back to 7-9%.

An Amazonian amount of water to flow under the proverbial bridge yet...

Carnyx said:

ToryJim said:

Easterross said:

ToryJim said:

Easterross said:

ToryJim said:

Easterross said:

ToryJim said:

Why is it these South American national anthems all sound like they're from 19th C operas?

Because that is when most of them became independent countries.

Yeah but they are all far too fast and flamboyant

Have you noticed how they are still singing about 5 minutes after the music stops? Either they are trying to catch up with the music or singing a very rude 2nd verse. Always reminds me of the Billy Connelly sketch where he suggested we have the Archers theme tune instead of GSTQ.

Don't forget we have a verse of the national anthem that's very rude to those north of Berwick.

only the rebellious ones!! My family was on the winning side. Indeed the head of the family at the time was at the side of the Duke of Cumberland at Culloden.

My family's entanglement with the Royals was alas much earlier including loaning Richard II 20,000 marks of silver.

Irresistible, I have to ask, did they get it back with interest??

No the thieving scumbag kept it.

MikeSmithson said:

Tonight's poll, however, is from the firm that most overstated UKIP on May 22nd and understated CON.

This poll set's up Monday's ICM quite nicely...

I've just watched the film Gravity.

That's 90 minutes of my life I won't be getting back.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-27850220

The definition of rape must not be as I remembered it ^^;

Pulpstar said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-27850220

The definition of rape must not be as I remembered it ^^;

Women can be charged with rape as an accomplice, but not as primary agent for obvious reasons, as far as I'm aware.

Taxpayers' cash should not be used to fund faith schools, say voters

Labour wants talks on teaching of religion as poll shows 58% of the public urge abolition or axing of state funds

http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/jun/14/taxpayers-should-not-fund-faith-schools