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Labour’s paths to victory: the choices of Sir Keir Starmer – politicalbetting.com
Labour’s paths to victory: the choices of Sir Keir Starmer – politicalbetting.com
When this crisis ends – and it will end – we'll rebuild our country together.Until then, it is our duty to stay safe, look after neighbours, and keep up the national effort that has got us this far.https://t.co/Sceh7qLFf1
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Both parties have similar strategic choices - for the Tories, between ‘attacking’ by playing up the cultural issues and economic levelling up to try and hold their new seats, or ‘defending’ by trying to recover some of their former support among the educated middle class.
Both parties will of course try to both attack and defend, but consciously or otherwise, there will be plenty of decision spots where they have to decide where they want the next election to be fought,
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
Option 3 in particular is fascinating. Were I the Labour leadership that is a route worth investigating.
I am still convinced that GE 2024 hinges on Johnson. I believe the red wall is more vulnerable without Johnson at the helm and the Southern seats less so. I see none of his rivals coming close to retaining the broad support lent to Johnson.
Assuming Johnson is still in play in 2024 the result of the election will be based on how his Government are "perceived" to have performed from now until May 2024. The economy could be shot to shreds, but if enough voters still believe Johnson's "good times are ahead of us" message he could still win at a canter.
And what they hadn't anticipated was the widespread use of drop boxes, which cut out the post office completely (and of course the back up that they had forgotten that crippling the post office meant many other crucial things eg. drug deliveries got caught up and forced a backlash.
https://twitter.com/DanRather/status/1345834047503646722?s=20
rcs1000 said:
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The US averages about 7,500 deaths on a normal day. If they're now at 12,500+, that would be staggering, a 70+% increase in the average daily death rate.
What is comparison , they have roughly 6-7 times population of England , so covid deaths appear similar. How do normal deaths in England compare. Am I missing something.
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CarlottaVance said:
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No.
Cases 40% worse Malc.
Nats & Maths, eh?
Can you explain your Maths
And right now it's all about getting the epidemic back under control in the first place. Otherwise the vaccines will be too late.
So we need minimum 20m vaccines by end March or we are finished.
But, tonight, the Trump tape is the story. Just staggering, but the most staggering thing of all is that we're not really surprised. Whatever happened to the United States to get to this?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/georgia-senate-polls/
The Atlas one has the most recent data up to Jan 1st and has Ossoff +4 and Warnock +3
I'm starting to wonder if my 3/1 might just happen although I accept that's the least important part of that possible outcome
In terms of seats, yes. But not vote shares:
2005:
Lab - 35.2%
Con - 32.4%
2019:
Con - 43.6%
Lab - 32.1%
It was pointed out that despite Lab being 2pp ahead in that MRP, Labour were two seats behind (excluding speaker Hoyle). The Tory vote has become more efficient, and may continue to become more so.
I think Labour need to decide more fundamentally what their purpose is, what problems they are trying to solve, and build an election-winning proposition from there.
Otherwise they are swimming in electoral currents defined by their opponents.
I suspect that will tell us that not one of the 3 strategies alone will work (in the sense of delivering a Labour majority).
I don't rule out Labour as largest party in 2024, but it looks really tough to get a majority -- it needs an unusually gifted and nimble politician to do it.
SKS is not that politician, he is too pedestrian. He is no Jacinda.
That is not to say that vaccinating is crucial: it is absolutely mission critical.
Lock him up.
Because by then will believe they are better off and that he saw off the virus. Sir Keir is competent enough but he's not Boris.
I derive no pleasure at all from writing that. Head over heart though and I'm betting accordingly.
But a health source warned The Telegraph that people should not expect huge numbers overnight, saying: "We have never said we will do two million jabs a week. We have to manage expectations. You cannot vaccinate two million people a week from nothing. People will be underwhelmed by the figures if expectation is set too high."
Quite why it can't start from 2m is beyond me.
Illegally nationalize the UK facility and attempt to run it themselves? That a) is unlikely to make it happen faster, and b) would have shall we say unfortunate consequences for the future of the pharma sector in the UK.
Build their own facility? You know it's actually quite complicated and difficult, and can't be done at short notice?
--AS
Of course the factory could be flat-out already.
This just goes back to governments inability to manage expectation.
--AS
Why?
The North is increasingly trending Tory, the South trending Labour.
And this is meant to be unconnected? 🤔
"Some time ago, I fetched tea for Boris Johnson every afternoon, and delivered it to him in his glass box of an office. It was my first job in journalism and he was the star columnist on the newspaper we both worked for. Johnson would always insist on paying for his tea and was generous enough to give me his internal payment card so I could buy one for myself too.
To his regular embarrassment, there was never a penny on his card and I would end up paying for both teas.
The other thing I remember is that though his articles were consistently brilliant, they were always late. Very late. Sometimes so late, the man who is now prime minister used to have to barricade himself inside his glass box to keep out the sub-editors, desperate for copy as the printing presses began to whir while he continued to tap away.
So it was with the signing of the EU-UK Trade and Co-operation Agreement."
Sort it out Boris
The anxieties Covid-19 has loaded on to teachers and support staff, and the arduous realities of their work in the pandemic, are still underappreciated. Vaccinations for people who work in schools and a functioning testing system for staff and pupils are now matters of huge urgency. But there are also ways that schools could deliver at least some education in safer circumstances than the standard classroom that should have been tried way before this new meltdown.
From unions and some enlightened politicians there have been proposals for “Nightingale schools”, which might shift lessons to new, larger spaces (think of all the empty theatres, cinemas and music venues), but they have come to nothing. In Belgium and Denmark, schools have moved some of their operations to public buildings and outdoor locations. In many US states, teaching has been shifted into the open air – which has continued amid snowy weather in Maine, Colorado and New Hampshire. In the balmy conditions of the first lockdown, why wasn’t an expansion of that approach not widely trialled in the UK, so it could have been used even in the winter?
The questions go on. Though there are now promises of a million laptops and tablets for poorer households, why has the government failed so pathetically so far? Could the idea of blended learning, whereby pupils go to school part-time in smaller classes, finally achieve more prominence? Given that the internet does not reach many households, why hasn’t television been more thoroughly used to make up for the interruptions to schooling?
There are plenty of reasons to feel downcast about the state we are in, but this one is particularly painful. No field of policy is more important than state education, and in the past year a whole set of dated and rigid ideas about education has been tested to destruction. It is now time to come up with something new.
https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1345860364202876928?s=20
I cannot understand your desire to blame the government for slow delivery by the manufacturer. It's irrational. I'm sure they were in close contact and offered what help they could, but unforeseen problems occur in manufacturing: it's a delicate business and no amount of huffing and puffing will make it happen faster.
--AS
Someone still can’t quite see through the charlatan.
35m would be good. Nothing wrong in seeking to improve outcomes.
So if you let it rip after 15M vaccinated, the health system would still get overloaded. Indeed there'd probably still be far too many serious cases just among the "non-vulnerable".
The vaccines will gradually bring R down (assuming they reduce virus spread as well as disease), and that should be the driver for gradual reopening.
We've effectively had the date set as the end of March. Slow initial ramp up, and two weeks out from that it will probably look nigh on impossible to meet, but some very large effort in the final fortnight coupled with some reasonably creative accounting (something like X million folk haven't had the vaccine by 31 March but have had an SMS message or letter through the post that says you can get it Y days from now) will be sufficient to broadly meet the pledge, if you squint a lot and don't think about it too much.
Or something.
It must be nice to be so sanguine.
But The Times is reporting that a key member of The University of Oxford vaccine team has questioned whether it would work against the South African variant.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1345709958508249088?s=09
As of the report a few days ago.
It’s highly unlikely they don’t think there’s a real danger that requires their intervention.
https://twitter.com/SCClemons/status/1345862319650336769
During the last two days, the temperature has not risen about the freezing point all day in Portland, Maine.
https://tinyurl.com/y7l929g4
I do not believe that teachers in Maine/New Hampshire are teaching in the open air in the New England winters.
--AS
Whst we have is a population that won't be vaccinated quickly enough and mis-communication in light of the second dose being cancelled.
That's not even scratching the surface of the now non existent test and trace, or the NHS app, or the tier system, or the fiasco with schools.
How many missteps can the government make? More worryingly, it doesn't seem to learn from any of its mistakes
The.
Fucking.
Borders.
Is there a working vaccine? Yes
Will that get into enough people given time? Yes
Will the government be able to resist siren calls to relax restrictions prematurely? Erm...
No vaccinations until 2022. So I will have to stay in and only communicate via pb.com
Thanks for coming Boris
https://twitter.com/Williams_T_C/status/1345708240382918658
One of the AZN trials is in South Africa and is continuing, so we should know fairly soon whether it is a problem.
But we should not confuse the communication with the fact of supply. I cannot blame the government for a supplier being late on delivery. Especially not when the manufacturing process is so specialized and there are so many things that can go wrong. If you want to get mad as someone, turn your ire on AstraZeneca!
--AS
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55428953