Mr. Oracle, more recent versions of 'citizen assemblies' have certain connotations of power-grabbing murder sprees, though.
Not as they've tried so far in liberal European democracies, as far as I can see.
Which liberal European democracies have had citizen assemblies determine vaccine strategies a year into a major pandemic, when the vaccine is already available and rollout should have begun already? 🤔
Athenian democracy did lead to an imperial protection racket and the mob executing a dozen or so admirals after they won a notable battle, which had the perhaps expected impact of proving more helpful to the enemy than the Athenians.
Good morning.
However, if we'd reproduced its structure, social context and failings literally, or those of classical science, drama and much else, we'd have no civilisation to speak of. We've all been adapting rather than cloning Classical ideas for 700 years.
Yes. We have evolved a democracy that works over a thousand years. No need to reinvent the wheel.
Our current representational model far from works, unforunately ; hence Trump, enormous buy-in to conspiracy theories and disaffection with democracy, and much else.
On topic. If we aren't targeting the Red Wall seats that we lost last time and others like them that we have lost since 2005 then we are not the Labour Party.
LibDems with a red rosette we are not.
Which is why Labour should have kept its promise and introduced PR, when you had the chance.
That is a step forward for citizens assemblies and such like around the West. We need much more of that Athenian particpatory democracy.
Because Socrates, and the Mitylenians, had it coming? The history of Athens is one great warning against direct democracy.
I don't agreee with that at all. We very rarely reproduce historical models literally, but in gradually adapted form, otherwise they would fail. Ireland's success with citizens assembies didn't result in mob rule.
Which is why we got rid of the participatory bit. I'd be interested in an example of a decision by the Athenian ecclesia which illustrates what a splendid thing their democracy was.
Williams to finish 9th or higher (ie not last) at 1.83.
Have to say I don't like those. If Ferrari aren't top 3, who will be? Mercedes and Red Bull seem nailed on. And in 2019 Ferrari were very good, dropping back in 2020 for engine reasons pertaining to rule breaking the previous season. I've started work on a season preamble and one thing already covered is how I expect Ferrari to come back. That plus the low odds and long time scale are not appealing.
Perez has every chance of a win. But the odds are poor and if Ferrari do recovery Red Bull might only have a few chances. And winning means beating his team mate, arguably the most talented driver on the grid.
Haas had a poor 2020, and Williams could've gotten on the scoreboard. But they have been propping up the table for a while now (the... 2014[?] season when they were best of the rest seems a very long time ago). Again, time scale plus odds equals disinterest from me.
Mr. Oracle, more recent versions of 'citizen assemblies' have certain connotations of power-grabbing murder sprees, though.
Not as they've tried so far in liberal European democracies, as far as I can see.
Which liberal European democracies have had citizen assemblies determine vaccine strategies a year into a major pandemic, when the vaccine is already available and rollout should have begun already? 🤔
If they follow the same successful model, with a random collection of people listening extensively to expert points of view over several days , the results will probably more successful than the UK's or the US's current ones ; which are compromised in all sorts of ways by short-term considerations.
Athenian democracy did lead to an imperial protection racket and the mob executing a dozen or so admirals after they won a notable battle, which had the perhaps expected impact of proving more helpful to the enemy than the Athenians.
Good morning.
However, if we'd reproduced its structure, social context and failings literally, or those of classical science, drama and much else, we'd have no civilisation to speak of. We've all been adapting rather than cloning Classical ideas for 700 years.
Yes. We have evolved a democracy that works over a thousand years. No need to reinvent the wheel.
Our current representational model far from works, unforunately ; hence Trump, enormous buy-in to conspiracy theories and disaffection with democracy, and much else.
Our current representational model works as intended, thankfully, hence Trump losing and being ousted.
Sore losers like Trump may bitch and moan and whinge about losing an election all they like and say they are dissatisfied with the results or democracy but it is the best and only way of ensuring a legitimate peaceful transfer of power.
Any other model than democracy a Trump gets into power and he stays there. Democracy sees him fired. Job done, victory for democracy.
Athenian democracy did lead to an imperial protection racket and the mob executing a dozen or so admirals after they won a notable battle, which had the perhaps expected impact of proving more helpful to the enemy than the Athenians.
Good morning.
However, if we'd reproduced its structure, social context and failings literally, or those of classical science, drama and much else, we'd have no civilisation to speak of. We've all been adapting rather than cloning Classical ideas for 700 years.
Yes. We have evolved a democracy that works over a thousand years. No need to reinvent the wheel.
Our current representational model far from works, unforunately ; hence Trump, enormous buy-in to conspiracy theories and disaffection with democracy, and much else.
Our current representational model works as intended, thankfully, hence Trump losing and being ousted.
Sore losers like Trump may bitch and moan and whinge about losing an election all they like and say they are dissatisfied with the results or democracy but it is the best and only way of ensuring a legitimate peaceful transfer of power.
Any other model than democracy a Trump gets into power and he stays there. Democracy sees him fired. Job done, victory for democracy.
This is Panglossian, I'm afraid. Without some form of commonly agreed democratic renewal, not only the EU but the US are heading for major crisis in the future.
Mr. Oracle, more recent versions of 'citizen assemblies' have certain connotations of power-grabbing murder sprees, though.
Not as they've tried so far in liberal European democracies, as far as I can see.
Which liberal European democracies have had citizen assemblies determine vaccine strategies a year into a major pandemic, when the vaccine is already available and rollout should have begun already? 🤔
If they follow the same successful model, with a random collection of people listening extensivlely to expert points of view over several days , the results will probably more successful than the UK's or the US's current ones ; which are compromised in all sorts of ways by short-term considerations.
If they had started this months ago potentially. Unlikely but potentially.
It's January 2021 already. They aren't scheduled to meet for another fortnight. By that point the UK will likely have at least 2 million already vaccinated. How are the French getting better results starting to talk about this in 2 weeks time than the UK having put in place a strategy over the past year and starting to implement it a month ago?
Athenian democracy did lead to an imperial protection racket and the mob executing a dozen or so admirals after they won a notable battle, which had the perhaps expected impact of proving more helpful to the enemy than the Athenians.
Good morning.
On the point of Athenian democracy ; however, if we'd reproduced its structure, social context and failings literally, or those of classical science, drama and much else, we'd have no civilisation to speak of. We've been adapting rather than cloning Classical ideas for 700 years.
We really haven't. Classical drama and science have much less bearing on the modern versions than you suppose. The extent to which their influence is overstated by classicists talking their own book is extraordinary.
Athenian democracy did lead to an imperial protection racket and the mob executing a dozen or so admirals after they won a notable battle, which had the perhaps expected impact of proving more helpful to the enemy than the Athenians.
Good morning.
However, if we'd reproduced its structure, social context and failings literally, or those of classical science, drama and much else, we'd have no civilisation to speak of. We've all been adapting rather than cloning Classical ideas for 700 years.
Yes. We have evolved a democracy that works over a thousand years. No need to reinvent the wheel.
Our current representational model far from works, unforunately ; hence Trump, enormous buy-in to conspiracy theories and disaffection with democracy, and much else.
Our current representational model works as intended, thankfully, hence Trump losing and being ousted.
Sore losers like Trump may bitch and moan and whinge about losing an election all they like and say they are dissatisfied with the results or democracy but it is the best and only way of ensuring a legitimate peaceful transfer of power.
Any other model than democracy a Trump gets into power and he stays there. Democracy sees him fired. Job done, victory for democracy.
This is Panglossian, I'm afraid. Without some form of commonly agreed democratic renewal, not only the EU but the US are heading for major crisis in the future.
The US had a democratic renewal on the first Tuesday in November last year. It did its job.
Athenian democracy did lead to an imperial protection racket and the mob executing a dozen or so admirals after they won a notable battle, which had the perhaps expected impact of proving more helpful to the enemy than the Athenians.
Good morning.
On the point of Athenian democracy ; however, if we'd reproduced its structure, social context and failings literally, or those of classical science, drama and much else, we'd have no civilisation to speak of. We've been adapting rather than cloning Classical ideas for 700 years.
We really haven't. Classical drama and science have much less bearing on the modern versions than you suppose. The extent to which their influence is overstated by classicists talking their own book is extraordinary.
I can't agree with that at all, I'm afraid. The Renaissance and then Enlightenment were vast adaptations of Classical ideas across the board, not their mimicking, and modern western science would be nowhere at all without that adaptation.
Athenian democracy did lead to an imperial protection racket and the mob executing a dozen or so admirals after they won a notable battle, which had the perhaps expected impact of proving more helpful to the enemy than the Athenians.
Good morning.
On the point of Athenian democracy ; however, if we'd reproduced its structure, social context and failings literally, or those of classical science, drama and much else, we'd have no civilisation to speak of. We've been adapting rather than cloning Classical ideas for 700 years.
We really haven't. Classical drama and science have much less bearing on the modern versions than you suppose. The extent to which their influence is overstated by classicists talking their own book is extraordinary.
I can't agree on that at all., unfortunately. The Enlightenment is a vast adaptation of Classical ideas across the board, not their mimicking, and modern western science would be nowhere at all without that adaptation.
Mr. Oracle, more recent versions of 'citizen assemblies' have certain connotations of power-grabbing murder sprees, though.
Not as they've tried so far in liberal European democracies, as far as I can see.
Which liberal European democracies have had citizen assemblies determine vaccine strategies a year into a major pandemic, when the vaccine is already available and rollout should have begun already? 🤔
If they follow the same successful model, with a random collection of people listening extensivlely to expert points of view over several days , the results will probably more successful than the UK's or the US's current ones ; which are compromised in all sorts of ways by short-term considerations.
If they had started this months ago potentially. Unlikely but potentially.
It's January 2021 already. They aren't scheduled to meet for another fortnight. By that point the UK will likely have at least 2 million already vaccinated. How are the French getting better results starting to talk about this in 2 weeks time than the UK having put in place a strategy over the past year and starting to implement it a month ago?
Also how do you define more successful?
The UK's record of decisions every two weeks isn't particularly good at the moment.
But, tonight, the Trump tape is the story. Just staggering, but the most staggering thing of all is that we're not really surprised. Whatever happened to the United States to get to this?
When the history is written, it’ll begin with Gingrich.
It begins with Nixon.
I think that was a previous political age. The present polarisation dates to the post-Cold War Clinton era.
The GOP were (and still are) furious that Nixon was forced out.
When they came to select their next Presidential Candidate they selected a Nixon loyalist in Reagan.
Reagan then selected and promoted Nixon lackeys. He put for Bork for the SC! The GOP still bring up Bork being rejected to this day.
The GOP then go apoplectic when Clinton beats Bush (who spends his time pardoning the shit out of the Iran Contra crew) which leads to Gingrich.
In the interim Stone/Ailes is founding Fox News. Its stated aim is to prevent a sitting GOP president from being forced out like Nixon was, no matter what the crime.
Which leads us to now.
Sorry, but most polite way to characterize your view of history here is "revisionist".
Notion that Ronald Reagan was "a Nixon loyalist" is incorrect, to put it mildly.
And whuke SOME in the Republican Party back in 1974 were furious re: Nixon resigning. But please note that it was the REPUBLICANS who forced him to resign, was when his support among Congressional Republicans collapsed after the release of the "smoking gun" tape.
OF course that was before criminal scum like Ailes and Trump took over the GOP, in much the same way that Al Capone cornered bootlegging in Chicago.
Motive for many of today's Republicans like to rail about Nixon being "forced out" and the like, is similar to that of Germans propagating the myth of the "clean Wehrmacht".
Some of the same folks will tell you that Herbert Hoover was also "forced out"! Which has a LOT more truth to it!
It’s quite true to say that Reagan defended Nixon throughout Watergate, even when others gave him up as a crook.
That was political calculation. NOT same thing as political loyalty.
Nixon was NOT conservative enough - not by a long shot - for the likes of Ronald Reagan, Barry Goldwater, John Ashcroft, William F. Buckley and most of the rest of the core of late-mid 20th century American conservatism.
I don’t disagree - but it’s hardly revisionist history to say that the degradation of the conservative movement started with Nixon. As did their adoption of the theory of executive supremacy.
The biggest issue now, is how does everyone walk back from this hyperpartisanship?
It’s the Prisoners’ Dilemma - if one side does it, they win, but if both sides do it, everybody loses.
It’s possible Biden reaches out to centrist Republicans at the expense of his own left wing, but I can’t see it happening with actions rather than words. Happy to say I was wrong in a couple of years’ time though.
Nothing Biden could do would get him Republican Senate votes. We've seen this movie before.
Great header. Agree that option 1 (2005 was a very narrow victory anyway) is least likely to work.
Starmer is polling much better than 2019 result. But needs votes where it matters.
Could increase of working from home mean more middle class people move out of London and tip marginal seats Labour's way?
What we have actually been seeing is the opposite - older people have been selling up (or keeping their old home for letting) and moving out, and London has been getting younger as the rooms in what was formerly a family house are occupied by one person in each. The relationship between voting and age is much stronger than class, the latter being remarkable currently for the way in which the previously strong correlation has pretty much disappeared.
Whilst some are talking in terms of a future where working class people vote Tory and middle class Labour, that isn’t where we are now. Those working class people who vote Tory are mostly retired, and many of the young from those areas are living in London bedsits.
If Macron's 35 are a random sample, 14 of them are anti-vaxxers. Yay democracy.
Your throwaway comment might have landed on the nub of the matter.
For the remarkable thing about recent surveys is the level of anti-vax sentiment in France.
And the biggest effect of citizens juries is that most people, when provided with all the evidence in a calm and factual way, and given the chance to talk it over with others in a moderated non judgemental environment, are willing to abandon a lot of their prejudices.
This initiative - if indeed there is truth in it - may be aimed at winning round a majority to support vaccination.
As a planning exercise, it would better have been done last year. But as a hearts and minds exercise, the eye of the crisis is the optimum moment.
With any luck, emerging good news from Israel and Bahrain and hopefully the UK will create a following wind and they can wrap the task up quickly. While meanwhile giving officials a couple of weeks to get their act together
Excellent header. Labour shouldn't go out of its way to alienate Mansfield voters, but equally it should accept that the electoral map has changed, for now at least. Right now the Tories are framing the debate as a fight for the scraps between the White working class and minorities/immigrants, with a degree of success. One day people may wake up to the fact that this is snake oil (or false consciousness as the Marxists like to call it). But I wouldn't bet on it happening soon. One lesson of the Red Wall and Scotland is not to take your most loyal voters for granted - and right now that means more of strategy 2 and 3, since its most loyal voters are now located in those kind of seats. The number one rule of politics is that governments lose elections more than oppositions win them. Labour's strategy should be to look sensible and electable and wait for the government to fuck up.
There's not much about Trump that invites the word 'extraordinary' but this one does. He has gone all Richard Nixon on us whose last days at the White House were seemingly mental. Nixon infamously made his close aids kneel together in the oval office in prayer to the Almighty, including Henry Kissinger.
I never knew Nixon took Kissinger at his own valuation.
I agree about the runoffs. Appalling timing for the Republicans. Just the thing to motivate the remaining Dems to get out and vote, while causing the Reds to hesitate.
Excellent header. Labour shouldn't go out of its way to alienate Mansfield voters, but equally it should accept that the electoral map has changed, for now at least. Right now the Tories are framing the debate as a fight for the scraps between the White working class and minorities/immigrants, with a degree of success. One day people may wake up to the fact that this is snake oil (or false consciousness as the Marxists like to call it). But I wouldn't bet on it happening soon. One lesson of the Red Wall and Scotland is not to take your most loyal voters for granted - and right now that means more of strategy 2 and 3, since its most loyal voters are now located in those kind of seats. The number one rule of politics is that governments lose elections more than oppositions win them. Labour's strategy should be to look sensible and electable and wait for the government to fuck up.
‘Wait’ for them to fuck up? You think things are going to get *worse*?
<<Labour would need to be positioning themselves not so much as post-industrial as technocratic – a return to early 1960s Labour under Harold Wilson. They have not done that yet.>>
This is quite near the key, I think. Labour need to somehow sell themselves as both morally-minded and idealistic, but also sober and, particularly, competent. Wilsonian interventionism rather than Blairism, which Starmer's personality is well cut out for ; hence he loves Wilson.
Great header. Agree that option 1 (2005 was a very narrow victory anyway) is least likely to work.
Starmer is polling much better than 2019 result. But needs votes where it matters.
Could increase of working from home mean more middle class people move out of London and tip marginal seats Labour's way?
What we have actually been seeing is the opposite - older people have been selling up (or keeping their old home for letting) and moving out, and London has been getting younger as the rooms in what was formerly a family house are occupied by one person in each. The relationship between voting and age is much stronger than class, the latter being remarkable currently for the way in which the previously strong correlation has pretty much disappeared.
Whilst some are talking in terms of a future where working class people vote Tory and middle class Labour, that isn’t where we are now. Those working class people who vote Tory are mostly retired, and many of the young from those areas are living in London bedsits.
Yep, age is the key determining factor these days, not class. In 2017, crossover from Labour to Tory was 47, I think. In 2019, it was 39. That's what got the Tories their majority. Right now, Labour has a strong lead among the under 50s, the Tories a strong one among the over 50s. If that continues, it is going to lead to a hung Parliament. If Labour can get a lead among all working age voters, the Tories will be in serious danger of losing power.
Good article. And I agree that targeting 2005 (why not 1966? Or 1945?) is obviously absurd. But even targeting the electorate of 2024 probably won't get them back to the result of 2005. As others have pointed out, in 2005, Labour's vote distribution was incredibly efficient. Obviously Starmer can't plan on that being repeated - the opposite if anything, given the impending redistribution.
And there's another factor - in 2005, the Scots voted heavily for Labour. I can't see that happening next time, whatever Starmer does.
Also, in 2005, Labour was led by a political genius, whatever one thinks of his record in government. The lesson of the last several decades for Labour is surely that it wins when led by Blair, and doesn't when it isn't. I just don't see Starmer as having that level of political talent - above all, the ability to catch the popular mood with a vacuous but resonant soundbite (people's princess; tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime, etc.) while offering bland, unthreatening policies.
So, I think things look pretty black for a Labour majority government, though of course it is not completely impossible.
I can't stand this Politics for All account. They never share a link to an actual legitimate news source or story. I don't understand what it up with these guys?
This seems shocking but upon Googling to find a legitimate English speaking news article about this I'm coming up blank. Does anyone have one?
The more i think about the US election, the more i think the original plan hadn't been to cry "fraud" over mail in ballots (that was the back up). The original plan had been to discourage all Republicans from using mail in (when they had previously quite liked in), on the basis of them being insecure, but then get the post office to cripple the delivery. That is one reason why they made such a big fuss early on in Pennsylvania about the deadlines for receipt of ballots.
And what they hadn't anticipated was the widespread use of drop boxes, which cut out the post office completely (and of course the back up that they had forgotten that crippling the post office meant many other crucial things eg. drug deliveries got caught up and forced a backlash.
Also the fact that the did NOT succeed in "crippling" the post office.
For example, note that in WA State and number of other states, nearly all of the ballots cast in this election, where first sent to voters via USPS.
Thus the Trumpsky-Putinist-GOP plot was foiled by the Deep Quasi-State. By postal workers and administrators inspired by Ben Franklin.
That was my point. The plan was to cripple the flow of mail (i slightly misphrased). The problem was that at a fairly early stage it became apparent what was going on and the impact it was having. Which shone a light on it and forced them to row back on it (although they still tried!)
If the Tories lead among working class voters, but Labour is either level or slightly ahead in the polls, then clearly the working class - as it has traditionally been defined - is not close to being the size it was in the past. Which takes us back to age.
A tsunami of anger on here (and not on here) this morning about the grotesque chaos of both the pox running rampant and the ineffectual attempts to both slow it down and roll out an immunisation programme.
None of this should be a surprise. Boris Johnson is a shit Prime Minister. He has a long proud track record of not having a clue what was going on and then getting the sack from lying when he needed to cover his clueless tracks. As PM he has surrounded himself with a cabinet who are hopelessly incompetent, brazenly corrupt or both. But he is untouchable because of the collapse of the old political order and its replacement by Brexit.
The PM is the man who delivered Brexit, the glittering prize that will deliver salvation for all the people. So regardless of the evidence of the Tories lining their own pockets of cretinously lurching from one disaster to another or literally slaughtering tens of thousands people are still supporting them because Brexit.
Whats more they will continue to support him whilst they wait for Brexit to remove the forriners and gift them cash and jobs and prosperity as promised. Due to the end of normal civilisation there will be a short* delay in the arrival of these promised gifts so they will wait in anticipation and keep backing him.
What can Labour do about it? Nothing. Until Brexit reality kicks in - that there is no prize - the people who have gone Lab to BXP to Con or straight to Con are gone and they aren't coming back.
Williams to finish 9th or higher (ie not last) at 1.83.
Have to say I don't like those. If Ferrari aren't top 3, who will be? Mercedes and Red Bull seem nailed on. And in 2019 Ferrari were very good, dropping back in 2020 for engine reasons pertaining to rule breaking the previous season. I've started work on a season preamble and one thing already covered is how I expect Ferrari to come back. That plus the low odds and long time scale are not appealing.
Perez has every chance of a win. But the odds are poor and if Ferrari do recovery Red Bull might only have a few chances. And winning means beating his team mate, arguably the most talented driver on the grid.
Haas had a poor 2020, and Williams could've gotten on the scoreboard. But they have been propping up the table for a while now (the... 2014[?] season when they were best of the rest seems a very long time ago). Again, time scale plus odds equals disinterest from me.
Sopel reporting the Trump tapes: remarkable that it leaked in the first place, widespread astonishment from the US political establishment. Says interfering in an election is an offence that would get you three years in prison. Says Biden admin wont want to get dragged into a legal fight with Trump, but others will be keener and may act.
Athenian democracy did lead to an imperial protection racket and the mob executing a dozen or so admirals after they won a notable battle, which had the perhaps expected impact of proving more helpful to the enemy than the Athenians.
Good morning.
However, if we'd reproduced its structure, social context and failings literally, or those of classical science, drama and much else, we'd have no civilisation to speak of. We've all been adapting rather than cloning Classical ideas for 700 years.
Yes. We have evolved a democracy that works over a thousand years. No need to reinvent the wheel.
Our current representational model far from works, unforunately ; hence Trump, enormous buy-in to conspiracy theories and disaffection with democracy, and much else.
Our current representational model works as intended, thankfully, hence Trump losing and being ousted.
Sore losers like Trump may bitch and moan and whinge about losing an election all they like and say they are dissatisfied with the results or democracy but it is the best and only way of ensuring a legitimate peaceful transfer of power.
Any other model than democracy a Trump gets into power and he stays there. Democracy sees him fired. Job done, victory for democracy.
Indeed, democracy means a peaceful transfer of power after an election.
The US system is a little weird in that it has 10 weeks from the election to the inauguration where a defeated incumbent can moan about the result, but we are still going to see Biden sworn in at midday on 20th.
I can't stand this Politics for All account. They never share a link to an actual legitimate news source or story. I don't understand what it up with these guys?
This seems shocking but upon Googling to find a legitimate English speaking news article about this I'm coming up blank. Does anyone have one?
France Bleu is the network of local radio stations owned by the state broadcaster Radio France. They are quoting France Info which is the 24 hour news radio also state owned. They directly quote Macron's spokes person.
Athenian democracy did lead to an imperial protection racket and the mob executing a dozen or so admirals after they won a notable battle, which had the perhaps expected impact of proving more helpful to the enemy than the Athenians.
Good morning.
However, if we'd reproduced its structure, social context and failings literally, or those of classical science, drama and much else, we'd have no civilisation to speak of. We've all been adapting rather than cloning Classical ideas for 700 years.
Yes. We have evolved a democracy that works over a thousand years. No need to reinvent the wheel.
Our current representational model far from works, unforunately ; hence Trump, enormous buy-in to conspiracy theories and disaffection with democracy, and much else.
Our current representational model works as intended, thankfully, hence Trump losing and being ousted.
Sore losers like Trump may bitch and moan and whinge about losing an election all they like and say they are dissatisfied with the results or democracy but it is the best and only way of ensuring a legitimate peaceful transfer of power.
Any other model than democracy a Trump gets into power and he stays there. Democracy sees him fired. Job done, victory for democracy.
Indeed, democracy means a peaceful transfer of power after an election.
The US system is a little weird in that it has 10 weeks from the election to the inauguration where a defeated incumbent can moan about the result, but we are still going to see Biden sworn in at midday on 20th.
Indeed and cui bono any "renewal" of or alternative to democracy would aid a Trump to thwart his own removal from office.
I can't stand this Politics for All account. They never share a link to an actual legitimate news source or story. I don't understand what it up with these guys?
This seems shocking but upon Googling to find a legitimate English speaking news article about this I'm coming up blank. Does anyone have one?
France Bleu is the network of local radio stations owned by the state broadcaster Radio France. They are quoting France Info which is the 24 hour news radio also state owned. They directly quote Macron's spokes person.
Sounds like a good source then! Thanks. That Politics For All Twitter account is incredibly bad at linking to primary sources.
Excellent header. Labour shouldn't go out of its way to alienate Mansfield voters, but equally it should accept that the electoral map has changed, for now at least. Right now the Tories are framing the debate as a fight for the scraps between the White working class and minorities/immigrants, with a degree of success. One day people may wake up to the fact that this is snake oil (or false consciousness as the Marxists like to call it). But I wouldn't bet on it happening soon. One lesson of the Red Wall and Scotland is not to take your most loyal voters for granted - and right now that means more of strategy 2 and 3, since its most loyal voters are now located in those kind of seats. The number one rule of politics is that governments lose elections more than oppositions win them. Labour's strategy should be to look sensible and electable and wait for the government to fuck up.
‘Wait’ for them to fuck up? You think things are going to get *worse*?
Right now the government is getting a pass because we are in the midst of a global pandemic - and even if its response has been manifestly inadequate, the pandemic itself isn't the government’s fault. In terms of the public's perception of the government fucking up, I think things can certainly get worse, and probably will. Brexit will disappoint its supporters, and "levelling up" is an empty slogan by a government whose instincts are all in the opposite direction. There's no money left. And the PM can't govern.
Those of you who are not teachers will not know just how extraordinary such a joint statement is.
For the NEU and the NAHT alone to be working together they will have had to bury differences that made the Nazi-Soviet pact look like the work of bessie mates.
Regardless of the virus situation, it shows a gaping chasm has opened between those who work in schools and the DfE who supposedly run them. It's very hard to see how that will be closed when this is over.
But, tonight, the Trump tape is the story. Just staggering, but the most staggering thing of all is that we're not really surprised. Whatever happened to the United States to get to this?
When the history is written, it’ll begin with Gingrich.
It begins with Nixon.
I think that was a previous political age. The present polarisation dates to the post-Cold War Clinton era.
The GOP were (and still are) furious that Nixon was forced out.
When they came to select their next Presidential Candidate they selected a Nixon loyalist in Reagan.
Reagan then selected and promoted Nixon lackeys. He put for Bork for the SC! The GOP still bring up Bork being rejected to this day.
The GOP then go apoplectic when Clinton beats Bush (who spends his time pardoning the shit out of the Iran Contra crew) which leads to Gingrich.
In the interim Stone/Ailes is founding Fox News. Its stated aim is to prevent a sitting GOP president from being forced out like Nixon was, no matter what the crime.
Which leads us to now.
Sorry, but most polite way to characterize your view of history here is "revisionist".
Notion that Ronald Reagan was "a Nixon loyalist" is incorrect, to put it mildly.
And whuke SOME in the Republican Party back in 1974 were furious re: Nixon resigning. But please note that it was the REPUBLICANS who forced him to resign, was when his support among Congressional Republicans collapsed after the release of the "smoking gun" tape.
OF course that was before criminal scum like Ailes and Trump took over the GOP, in much the same way that Al Capone cornered bootlegging in Chicago.
Motive for many of today's Republicans like to rail about Nixon being "forced out" and the like, is similar to that of Germans propagating the myth of the "clean Wehrmacht".
Some of the same folks will tell you that Herbert Hoover was also "forced out"! Which has a LOT more truth to it!
It’s quite true to say that Reagan defended Nixon throughout Watergate, even when others gave him up as a crook.
That was political calculation. NOT same thing as political loyalty.
Nixon was NOT conservative enough - not by a long shot - for the likes of Ronald Reagan, Barry Goldwater, John Ashcroft, William F. Buckley and most of the rest of the core of late-mid 20th century American conservatism.
I don’t disagree - but it’s hardly revisionist history to say that the degradation of the conservative movement started with Nixon. As did their adoption of the theory of executive supremacy.
The biggest issue now, is how does everyone walk back from this hyperpartisanship?
It’s the Prisoners’ Dilemma - if one side does it, they win, but if both sides do it, everybody loses.
It’s possible Biden reaches out to centrist Republicans at the expense of his own left wing, but I can’t see it happening with actions rather than words. Happy to say I was wrong in a couple of years’ time though.
Nothing Biden could do would get him Republican Senate votes. We've seen this movie before.
Yes, both parties need to agree for it to work.
It’s not happening with McConnell and Pelosi as Speakers, constantly seeking to undermine each other.
Great header. Agree that option 1 (2005 was a very narrow victory anyway) is least likely to work.
Starmer is polling much better than 2019 result. But needs votes where it matters.
Could increase of working from home mean more middle class people move out of London and tip marginal seats Labour's way?
What we have actually been seeing is the opposite - older people have been selling up (or keeping their old home for letting) and moving out, and London has been getting younger as the rooms in what was formerly a family house are occupied by one person in each. The relationship between voting and age is much stronger than class, the latter being remarkable currently for the way in which the previously strong correlation has pretty much disappeared.
Whilst some are talking in terms of a future where working class people vote Tory and middle class Labour, that isn’t where we are now. Those working class people who vote Tory are mostly retired, and many of the young from those areas are living in London bedsits.
Yep, age is the key determining factor these days, not class. In 2017, crossover from Labour to Tory was 47, I think. In 2019, it was 39. That's what got the Tories their majority. Right now, Labour has a strong lead among the under 50s, the Tories a strong one among the over 50s. If that continues, it is going to lead to a hung Parliament. If Labour can get a lead among all working age voters, the Tories will be in serious danger of losing power.
Yes, I think that Labour needs to think through policies and agendas that appeal to the middle aged employed. More than the middle or working class, these are the swing voters now.
Must get off though. Looks to be a busy week ahead.
Great header. Agree that option 1 (2005 was a very narrow victory anyway) is least likely to work.
Starmer is polling much better than 2019 result. But needs votes where it matters.
Could increase of working from home mean more middle class people move out of London and tip marginal seats Labour's way?
What we have actually been seeing is the opposite - older people have been selling up (or keeping their old home for letting) and moving out, and London has been getting younger as the rooms in what was formerly a family house are occupied by one person in each. The relationship between voting and age is much stronger than class, the latter being remarkable currently for the way in which the previously strong correlation has pretty much disappeared.
Whilst some are talking in terms of a future where working class people vote Tory and middle class Labour, that isn’t where we are now. Those working class people who vote Tory are mostly retired, and many of the young from those areas are living in London bedsits.
Yep, age is the key determining factor these days, not class. In 2017, crossover from Labour to Tory was 47, I think. In 2019, it was 39. That's what got the Tories their majority. Right now, Labour has a strong lead among the under 50s, the Tories a strong one among the over 50s. If that continues, it is going to lead to a hung Parliament. If Labour can get a lead among all working age voters, the Tories will be in serious danger of losing power.
Yes, I think that Labour needs to think through policies and agendas that appeal to the middle aged employed. More than the middle or working class, these are the swing voters now.
Must get off though. Looks to be a busy week ahead.
Class is still important though albeit mainly only in the minds of senior / aged Labour members. Fighting for "the working class" remains totemic despite most not having a clue how to define it in the modern age.
Blair won two landslides and a comfortable majority by talking to the majority of people in the middle - people who work as opposed to "working class". Where Labour lost its way in the last decade is that these people were largely ignored with (even in the 2015 campaign) policies only really focused on the top and bottom deciles.
I can't understand how the party has so utterly lost this connection with the middle ground considering that so many of its members are from that 80%.
Those of you who are not teachers will not know just how extraordinary such a joint statement is.
For the NEU and the NAHT alone to be working together they will have had to bury differences that made the Nazi-Soviet pact look like the work of bessie mates.
Regardless of the virus situation, it shows a gaping chasm has opened between those who work in schools and the DfE who supposedly run them. It's very hard to see how that will be closed when this is over.
All hospitals should close to protect the Doctors & Nurses
If Macron's 35 are a random sample, 14 of them are anti-vaxxers. Yay democracy.
Your throwaway comment might have landed on the nub of the matter.
For the remarkable thing about recent surveys is the level of anti-vax sentiment in France.
And the biggest effect of citizens juries is that most people, when provided with all the evidence in a calm and factual way, and given the chance to talk it over with others in a moderated non judgemental environment, are willing to abandon a lot of their prejudices.
This initiative - if indeed there is truth in it - may be aimed at winning round a majority to support vaccination.
As a planning exercise, it would better have been done last year. But as a hearts and minds exercise, the eye of the crisis is the optimum moment.
With any luck, emerging good news from Israel and Bahrain and hopefully the UK will create a following wind and they can wrap the task up quickly. While meanwhile giving officials a couple of weeks to get their act together
Macron will not be in a great place when the French public start hearing that Les Rosbifs have stopped the virus killing their respected elders by vaccinating them, whereas in France those respected elders are still being buried in huge numbers.
Those of you who are not teachers will not know just how extraordinary such a joint statement is.
For the NEU and the NAHT alone to be working together they will have had to bury differences that made the Nazi-Soviet pact look like the work of bessie mates.
Regardless of the virus situation, it shows a gaping chasm has opened between those who work in schools and the DfE who supposedly run them. It's very hard to see how that will be closed when this is over.
All hospitals should close to protect the Doctors & Nurses
They get PPE.
We don't.
At this moment, the question is whether we can keep schools open without it. The government says they are safe, and then shuts a large chunk of them and orders vulnerable staff to isolate, which suggests they're not quite sure.
Therefore, everyone is assuming they are lying, and is acting accordingly.
I sometimes whether your posts are windups or whether you genuinely believe what you type.
If Macron's 35 are a random sample, 14 of them are anti-vaxxers. Yay democracy.
Your throwaway comment might have landed on the nub of the matter.
For the remarkable thing about recent surveys is the level of anti-vax sentiment in France.
And the biggest effect of citizens juries is that most people, when provided with all the evidence in a calm and factual way, and given the chance to talk it over with others in a moderated non judgemental environment, are willing to abandon a lot of their prejudices.
This initiative - if indeed there is truth in it - may be aimed at winning round a majority to support vaccination.
As a planning exercise, it would better have been done last year. But as a hearts and minds exercise, the eye of the crisis is the optimum moment.
With any luck, emerging good news from Israel and Bahrain and hopefully the UK will create a following wind and they can wrap the task up quickly. While meanwhile giving officials a couple of weeks to get their act together
Macron will not be in a great place when the French public start hearing that Les Rosbifs have stopped the virus killing their respected elders by vaccinating them, whereas in France those respected elders are still being buried in huge numbers.
Sadly I agree.
@WhisperingOracle earlier suggesting that the French were going to have a better vaccine rollout than the UK was a rather brave suggestion.
So a year after every election there will be a Brexit review. The govt want it to stay at the top of the public and electoral agenda. To the usual moaners, don't blame ex-remainers for this!
Sopel reporting the Trump tapes: remarkable that it leaked in the first place, widespread astonishment from the US political establishment. Says interfering in an election is an offence that would get you three years in prison. Says Biden admin wont want to get dragged into a legal fight with Trump, but others will be keener and may act.
Honestly what is the justification for not prosecuting? I get that it might not be the best play politically... but at some point you have to respect the law. Never heard of Brad Raffensperger but thank god he's an honest republican.
Would anyone take the vaccine but not take it delivered by a vet? Wouldn't bother me in the slightest if it was a vet jabbing me.
I put the well-being of my dog in their hands - and my dog is a member of my family. Of couure I'd take a jab from a vet. I'd probably be happy for them to take my appendix out too, if the immediate prospect of it bursting was the alternative. Brain surgery - might take a pass.
We need to be getting hundreds of thousands of jabs a day. By whatever safe means we can concoct. Based around upermarket car-parks. People who are going out and about to supermarkets are not people holed up - so are more likley to be a vector for transfer. Jab any adult shopping that wants one.
ManCock on LBC. Says people need to behave as we "only have a few more weeks of this" (restrictions)
Dafuq? Its MONTHS you prannock.
Single digit amount of weeks for the worst of restrictions I predict.
9 weeks would stretch the definition of "a few more weeks" to breaking point. If you told your boss you would deliver the report in a few more weeks and dropped it on her desk more than two months later, I think you'd probably be expecting to spend a bit of time on LinkedIn.
Great header. Agree that option 1 (2005 was a very narrow victory anyway) is least likely to work.
Starmer is polling much better than 2019 result. But needs votes where it matters.
Could increase of working from home mean more middle class people move out of London and tip marginal seats Labour's way?
What we have actually been seeing is the opposite - older people have been selling up (or keeping their old home for letting) and moving out, and London has been getting younger as the rooms in what was formerly a family house are occupied by one person in each. The relationship between voting and age is much stronger than class, the latter being remarkable currently for the way in which the previously strong correlation has pretty much disappeared.
Whilst some are talking in terms of a future where working class people vote Tory and middle class Labour, that isn’t where we are now. Those working class people who vote Tory are mostly retired, and many of the young from those areas are living in London bedsits.
Yep, age is the key determining factor these days, not class. In 2017, crossover from Labour to Tory was 47, I think. In 2019, it was 39. That's what got the Tories their majority. Right now, Labour has a strong lead among the under 50s, the Tories a strong one among the over 50s. If that continues, it is going to lead to a hung Parliament. If Labour can get a lead among all working age voters, the Tories will be in serious danger of losing power.
Yes, I think that Labour needs to think through policies and agendas that appeal to the middle aged employed. More than the middle or working class, these are the swing voters now.
Must get off though. Looks to be a busy week ahead.
Class is still important though albeit mainly only in the minds of senior / aged Labour members. Fighting for "the working class" remains totemic despite most not having a clue how to define it in the modern age.
Blair won two landslides and a comfortable majority by talking to the majority of people in the middle - people who work as opposed to "working class". Where Labour lost its way in the last decade is that these people were largely ignored with (even in the 2015 campaign) policies only really focused on the top and bottom deciles.
I can't understand how the party has so utterly lost this connection with the middle ground considering that so many of its members are from that 80%.
This seems to be the key, represent the middle, not the middle class or working class, but the middle groups in society. Blair's success drew heavily on targeting the likes of Mondeo man, however dated that seems now.
Those of you who are not teachers will not know just how extraordinary such a joint statement is.
For the NEU and the NAHT alone to be working together they will have had to bury differences that made the Nazi-Soviet pact look like the work of bessie mates.
Regardless of the virus situation, it shows a gaping chasm has opened between those who work in schools and the DfE who supposedly run them. It's very hard to see how that will be closed when this is over.
Agreed. It's one thing to have a DfE whose policies you think are wrong; quite another to have one which lies to you. The department fully back the PM who blatantly lied when he repeated this weekend that schools are 'absolutely safe'. While it's true that primary age kids who are infected have very low risk indeed, that is true neither of their teachers, nor their families.
Sopel reporting the Trump tapes: remarkable that it leaked in the first place, widespread astonishment from the US political establishment. Says interfering in an election is an offence that would get you three years in prison. Says Biden admin wont want to get dragged into a legal fight with Trump, but others will be keener and may act.
In a parallel universe Republicans use this affair to draw a line under the Trump era, by making a big thing about protecting democracy and the constitution, agreeing to quick impeachment proceedings to symbolically chuck Trump out of office a few days early and more importantly bar him from office in the future.
Great header. Agree that option 1 (2005 was a very narrow victory anyway) is least likely to work.
Starmer is polling much better than 2019 result. But needs votes where it matters.
Could increase of working from home mean more middle class people move out of London and tip marginal seats Labour's way?
What we have actually been seeing is the opposite - older people have been selling up (or keeping their old home for letting) and moving out, and London has been getting younger as the rooms in what was formerly a family house are occupied by one person in each. The relationship between voting and age is much stronger than class, the latter being remarkable currently for the way in which the previously strong correlation has pretty much disappeared.
Whilst some are talking in terms of a future where working class people vote Tory and middle class Labour, that isn’t where we are now. Those working class people who vote Tory are mostly retired, and many of the young from those areas are living in London bedsits.
Yep, age is the key determining factor these days, not class. In 2017, crossover from Labour to Tory was 47, I think. In 2019, it was 39. That's what got the Tories their majority. Right now, Labour has a strong lead among the under 50s, the Tories a strong one among the over 50s. If that continues, it is going to lead to a hung Parliament. If Labour can get a lead among all working age voters, the Tories will be in serious danger of losing power.
Yes, I think that Labour needs to think through policies and agendas that appeal to the middle aged employed. More than the middle or working class, these are the swing voters now.
Must get off though. Looks to be a busy week ahead.
Class is still important though albeit mainly only in the minds of senior / aged Labour members. Fighting for "the working class" remains totemic despite most not having a clue how to define it in the modern age.
Blair won two landslides and a comfortable majority by talking to the majority of people in the middle - people who work as opposed to "working class". Where Labour lost its way in the last decade is that these people were largely ignored with (even in the 2015 campaign) policies only really focused on the top and bottom deciles.
I can't understand how the party has so utterly lost this connection with the middle ground considering that so many of its members are from that 80%.
Ahem - Corbyn? That middle ground membership elected him, fawned over him, overlooked the rampant anti-semitism the leadership was also overlooking (yes, Starmer, I include your 3 years as part of Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet within that).
Labour is a Party whose moral compass has rusted to dust. The wider middle ground knows this.
Sopel reporting the Trump tapes: remarkable that it leaked in the first place, widespread astonishment from the US political establishment. Says interfering in an election is an offence that would get you three years in prison. Says Biden admin wont want to get dragged into a legal fight with Trump, but others will be keener and may act.
In a parallel universe Republicans use this affair to draw a line under the Trump era, by making a big thing about protecting democracy and the constitution, agreeing to quick impeachment proceedings to symbolically chuck Trump out of office a few days early and more importantly bar him from office in the future.
A significant part of the Republican Party and their voters now apparently no longer believe in democracy. It is astonishing and frightening.
ManCock on LBC. Says people need to behave as we "only have a few more weeks of this" (restrictions)
Dafuq? Its MONTHS you prannock.
They simply do not understand the maths. Doesn't help that the Chief Scientific Advisor doesn't either, judging by his lamentable performance re herd immunity in March.
Great header. Agree that option 1 (2005 was a very narrow victory anyway) is least likely to work.
Starmer is polling much better than 2019 result. But needs votes where it matters.
Could increase of working from home mean more middle class people move out of London and tip marginal seats Labour's way?
What we have actually been seeing is the opposite - older people have been selling up (or keeping their old home for letting) and moving out, and London has been getting younger as the rooms in what was formerly a family house are occupied by one person in each. The relationship between voting and age is much stronger than class, the latter being remarkable currently for the way in which the previously strong correlation has pretty much disappeared.
Whilst some are talking in terms of a future where working class people vote Tory and middle class Labour, that isn’t where we are now. Those working class people who vote Tory are mostly retired, and many of the young from those areas are living in London bedsits.
Yep, age is the key determining factor these days, not class. In 2017, crossover from Labour to Tory was 47, I think. In 2019, it was 39. That's what got the Tories their majority. Right now, Labour has a strong lead among the under 50s, the Tories a strong one among the over 50s. If that continues, it is going to lead to a hung Parliament. If Labour can get a lead among all working age voters, the Tories will be in serious danger of losing power.
Yes, I think that Labour needs to think through policies and agendas that appeal to the middle aged employed. More than the middle or working class, these are the swing voters now.
Must get off though. Looks to be a busy week ahead.
Class is still important though albeit mainly only in the minds of senior / aged Labour members. Fighting for "the working class" remains totemic despite most not having a clue how to define it in the modern age.
Blair won two landslides and a comfortable majority by talking to the majority of people in the middle - people who work as opposed to "working class". Where Labour lost its way in the last decade is that these people were largely ignored with (even in the 2015 campaign) policies only really focused on the top and bottom deciles.
I can't understand how the party has so utterly lost this connection with the middle ground considering that so many of its members are from that 80%.
They've been taken over by the politics of student unions. Israel matter more than employment to many of the nutters.
It is not simply anti-Semitism as an issue in raising that, even if anti-Semitism is tackled ... the reason why that was able to be true still remains. A distinct lack of serious real world real employment etc concerns over student abstract ones.
Great header. Agree that option 1 (2005 was a very narrow victory anyway) is least likely to work.
Starmer is polling much better than 2019 result. But needs votes where it matters.
Could increase of working from home mean more middle class people move out of London and tip marginal seats Labour's way?
What we have actually been seeing is the opposite - older people have been selling up (or keeping their old home for letting) and moving out, and London has been getting younger as the rooms in what was formerly a family house are occupied by one person in each. The relationship between voting and age is much stronger than class, the latter being remarkable currently for the way in which the previously strong correlation has pretty much disappeared.
Whilst some are talking in terms of a future where working class people vote Tory and middle class Labour, that isn’t where we are now. Those working class people who vote Tory are mostly retired, and many of the young from those areas are living in London bedsits.
Yep, age is the key determining factor these days, not class. In 2017, crossover from Labour to Tory was 47, I think. In 2019, it was 39. That's what got the Tories their majority. Right now, Labour has a strong lead among the under 50s, the Tories a strong one among the over 50s. If that continues, it is going to lead to a hung Parliament. If Labour can get a lead among all working age voters, the Tories will be in serious danger of losing power.
Yes, I think that Labour needs to think through policies and agendas that appeal to the middle aged employed. More than the middle or working class, these are the swing voters now.
Must get off though. Looks to be a busy week ahead.
Class is still important though albeit mainly only in the minds of senior / aged Labour members. Fighting for "the working class" remains totemic despite most not having a clue how to define it in the modern age.
Blair won two landslides and a comfortable majority by talking to the majority of people in the middle - people who work as opposed to "working class". Where Labour lost its way in the last decade is that these people were largely ignored with (even in the 2015 campaign) policies only really focused on the top and bottom deciles.
I can't understand how the party has so utterly lost this connection with the middle ground considering that so many of its members are from that 80%.
Ahem - Corbyn? That middle ground membership elected him, fawned over him, overlooked the rampant anti-semitism the leadership was also overlooking (yes, Starmer, I include your 3 years as part of Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet within that).
Labour is a Party whose moral compass has rusted to dust. The wider middle ground knows this.
Sopel reporting the Trump tapes: remarkable that it leaked in the first place, widespread astonishment from the US political establishment. Says interfering in an election is an offence that would get you three years in prison. Says Biden admin wont want to get dragged into a legal fight with Trump, but others will be keener and may act.
Honestly what is the justification for not prosecuting? I get that it might not be the best play politically... but at some point you have to respect the law. Never heard of Brad Raffensperger but thank god he's an honest republican.
The justification for not prosecuting is that no-one wants to make a martyr out of Trump with millions of armed nutters.
The whole political class - on both sides - is as embarrassed as all hell that Trump's foul presence has polluted politics for four years. Republicans, that he was their figurehead. Democrats, that they were so demonstrably shite they couldn't stop him. All sides just want him gone, forgotten, a footnote.
Get to Biden's inauguration - and all can relax that the turd has been flushed.
Would anyone take the vaccine but not take it delivered by a vet? Wouldn't bother me in the slightest if it was a vet jabbing me.
I put the well-being of my dog in their hands - and my dog is a member of my family. Of couure I'd take a jab from a vet. I'd probably be happy for them to take my appendix out too, if the immediate prospect of it bursting was the alternative. Brain surgery - might take a pass.
We need to be getting hundreds of thousands of jabs a day. By whatever safe means we can concoct. Based around upermarket car-parks. People who are going out and about to supermarkets are not people holed up - so are more likley to be a vector for transfer. Jab any adult shopping that wants one.
When the Nightingale hospitals were created, vets were in the group of "people with any medical skills to be drafted in".
Great header. Agree that option 1 (2005 was a very narrow victory anyway) is least likely to work.
Starmer is polling much better than 2019 result. But needs votes where it matters.
Could increase of working from home mean more middle class people move out of London and tip marginal seats Labour's way?
What we have actually been seeing is the opposite - older people have been selling up (or keeping their old home for letting) and moving out, and London has been getting younger as the rooms in what was formerly a family house are occupied by one person in each. The relationship between voting and age is much stronger than class, the latter being remarkable currently for the way in which the previously strong correlation has pretty much disappeared.
Whilst some are talking in terms of a future where working class people vote Tory and middle class Labour, that isn’t where we are now. Those working class people who vote Tory are mostly retired, and many of the young from those areas are living in London bedsits.
Yep, age is the key determining factor these days, not class. In 2017, crossover from Labour to Tory was 47, I think. In 2019, it was 39. That's what got the Tories their majority. Right now, Labour has a strong lead among the under 50s, the Tories a strong one among the over 50s. If that continues, it is going to lead to a hung Parliament. If Labour can get a lead among all working age voters, the Tories will be in serious danger of losing power.
Yes, I think that Labour needs to think through policies and agendas that appeal to the middle aged employed. More than the middle or working class, these are the swing voters now.
Must get off though. Looks to be a busy week ahead.
Class is still important though albeit mainly only in the minds of senior / aged Labour members. Fighting for "the working class" remains totemic despite most not having a clue how to define it in the modern age.
Blair won two landslides and a comfortable majority by talking to the majority of people in the middle - people who work as opposed to "working class". Where Labour lost its way in the last decade is that these people were largely ignored with (even in the 2015 campaign) policies only really focused on the top and bottom deciles.
I can't understand how the party has so utterly lost this connection with the middle ground considering that so many of its members are from that 80%.
Ahem - Corbyn? That middle ground membership elected him, fawned over him, overlooked the rampant anti-semitism the leadership was also overlooking (yes, Starmer, I include your 3 years as part of Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet within that).
Labour is a Party whose moral compass has rusted to dust. The wider middle ground knows this.
Where’s the Tory moral compass?
Well, not as warped as to allow anti-semitism to run riot.
Tories being a bit shit is not on any level comparable to how low Labour sank under Corbyn.
Sopel reporting the Trump tapes: remarkable that it leaked in the first place, widespread astonishment from the US political establishment. Says interfering in an election is an offence that would get you three years in prison. Says Biden admin wont want to get dragged into a legal fight with Trump, but others will be keener and may act.
In a parallel universe Republicans use this affair to draw a line under the Trump era, by making a big thing about protecting democracy and the constitution, agreeing to quick impeachment proceedings to symbolically chuck Trump out of office a few days early and more importantly bar him from office in the future.
Instead they are bringing lawsuits against the people who recorded the tapes.
Great header. Agree that option 1 (2005 was a very narrow victory anyway) is least likely to work.
Starmer is polling much better than 2019 result. But needs votes where it matters.
Could increase of working from home mean more middle class people move out of London and tip marginal seats Labour's way?
What we have actually been seeing is the opposite - older people have been selling up (or keeping their old home for letting) and moving out, and London has been getting younger as the rooms in what was formerly a family house are occupied by one person in each. The relationship between voting and age is much stronger than class, the latter being remarkable currently for the way in which the previously strong correlation has pretty much disappeared.
Whilst some are talking in terms of a future where working class people vote Tory and middle class Labour, that isn’t where we are now. Those working class people who vote Tory are mostly retired, and many of the young from those areas are living in London bedsits.
Yep, age is the key determining factor these days, not class. In 2017, crossover from Labour to Tory was 47, I think. In 2019, it was 39. That's what got the Tories their majority. Right now, Labour has a strong lead among the under 50s, the Tories a strong one among the over 50s. If that continues, it is going to lead to a hung Parliament. If Labour can get a lead among all working age voters, the Tories will be in serious danger of losing power.
Yes, I think that Labour needs to think through policies and agendas that appeal to the middle aged employed. More than the middle or working class, these are the swing voters now.
Must get off though. Looks to be a busy week ahead.
Class is still important though albeit mainly only in the minds of senior / aged Labour members. Fighting for "the working class" remains totemic despite most not having a clue how to define it in the modern age.
Blair won two landslides and a comfortable majority by talking to the majority of people in the middle - people who work as opposed to "working class". Where Labour lost its way in the last decade is that these people were largely ignored with (even in the 2015 campaign) policies only really focused on the top and bottom deciles.
I can't understand how the party has so utterly lost this connection with the middle ground considering that so many of its members are from that 80%.
They've been taken over by the politics of student unions. Israel matter more than employment to many of the nutters.
It is not simply anti-Semitism as an issue in raising that, even if anti-Semitism is tackled ... the reason why that was able to be true still remains. A distinct lack of serious real world real employment etc concerns over student abstract ones.
As opposed to a party taken over by a comic caracature from the 1970s?
I think Labour need to decide more fundamentally what their purpose is, what problems they are trying to solve, and build an election-winning proposition from there.
Otherwise they are swimming in electoral currents defined by their opponents.
I can now view the 2024 list.
It's very striking to see seats like Stevenage as easier targets than Sedgefield, Worcester ahead of Bolsover. Though some things never change - I think Kingswood was around about the seat Labour needed to win for a majority in 2015.
Taking a step back from the details is all that much changed from the old METTHs analysis?
Towns where many of the things that can work well in cities because of scale - public transport, most obviously - currently don't.
I think that's one of the more tricky problems for Labour. They mostly have big city solutions, speak with a big city voice, based on big city assumptions.
Having southern towns be easier targets than northern towns is still a big change. But ultimately it's still towns that need to be won over.
Great header. Agree that option 1 (2005 was a very narrow victory anyway) is least likely to work.
Starmer is polling much better than 2019 result. But needs votes where it matters.
Could increase of working from home mean more middle class people move out of London and tip marginal seats Labour's way?
What we have actually been seeing is the opposite - older people have been selling up (or keeping their old home for letting) and moving out, and London has been getting younger as the rooms in what was formerly a family house are occupied by one person in each. The relationship between voting and age is much stronger than class, the latter being remarkable currently for the way in which the previously strong correlation has pretty much disappeared.
Whilst some are talking in terms of a future where working class people vote Tory and middle class Labour, that isn’t where we are now. Those working class people who vote Tory are mostly retired, and many of the young from those areas are living in London bedsits.
Yep, age is the key determining factor these days, not class. In 2017, crossover from Labour to Tory was 47, I think. In 2019, it was 39. That's what got the Tories their majority. Right now, Labour has a strong lead among the under 50s, the Tories a strong one among the over 50s. If that continues, it is going to lead to a hung Parliament. If Labour can get a lead among all working age voters, the Tories will be in serious danger of losing power.
Yes, I think that Labour needs to think through policies and agendas that appeal to the middle aged employed. More than the middle or working class, these are the swing voters now.
Must get off though. Looks to be a busy week ahead.
Class is still important though albeit mainly only in the minds of senior / aged Labour members. Fighting for "the working class" remains totemic despite most not having a clue how to define it in the modern age.
Blair won two landslides and a comfortable majority by talking to the majority of people in the middle - people who work as opposed to "working class". Where Labour lost its way in the last decade is that these people were largely ignored with (even in the 2015 campaign) policies only really focused on the top and bottom deciles.
I can't understand how the party has so utterly lost this connection with the middle ground considering that so many of its members are from that 80%.
Ahem - Corbyn? That middle ground membership elected him, fawned over him, overlooked the rampant anti-semitism the leadership was also overlooking (yes, Starmer, I include your 3 years as part of Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet within that).
Labour is a Party whose moral compass has rusted to dust. The wider middle ground knows this.
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Ferrari not to be top 3 at 1.4.
Perez to exceed 0.5 wins at 1.2.
Williams to finish 9th or higher (ie not last) at 1.83.
Have to say I don't like those. If Ferrari aren't top 3, who will be? Mercedes and Red Bull seem nailed on. And in 2019 Ferrari were very good, dropping back in 2020 for engine reasons pertaining to rule breaking the previous season. I've started work on a season preamble and one thing already covered is how I expect Ferrari to come back. That plus the low odds and long time scale are not appealing.
Perez has every chance of a win. But the odds are poor and if Ferrari do recovery Red Bull might only have a few chances. And winning means beating his team mate, arguably the most talented driver on the grid.
Haas had a poor 2020, and Williams could've gotten on the scoreboard. But they have been propping up the table for a while now (the... 2014[?] season when they were best of the rest seems a very long time ago). Again, time scale plus odds equals disinterest from me.
Sore losers like Trump may bitch and moan and whinge about losing an election all they like and say they are dissatisfied with the results or democracy but it is the best and only way of ensuring a legitimate peaceful transfer of power.
Any other model than democracy a Trump gets into power and he stays there. Democracy sees him fired. Job done, victory for democracy.
Starmer is polling much better than 2019 result. But needs votes where it matters.
Could increase of working from home mean more middle class people move out of London and tip marginal seats Labour's way?
It's January 2021 already. They aren't scheduled to meet for another fortnight. By that point the UK will likely have at least 2 million already vaccinated. How are the French getting better results starting to talk about this in 2 weeks time than the UK having put in place a strategy over the past year and starting to implement it a month ago?
Also how do you define more successful?
The biggest obstacle to a return to normality is BoZo
Even if the government had a brilliant strategy (I don't think they do) every time he speaks he undermines it.
Nothing...
But he needs to give a straight answer on schools - stop waffling about how regrettable it is and just say they should be closed until safe to open.
Whilst some are talking in terms of a future where working class people vote Tory and middle class Labour, that isn’t where we are now. Those working class people who vote Tory are mostly retired, and many of the young from those areas are living in London bedsits.
For the remarkable thing about recent surveys is the level of anti-vax sentiment in France.
And the biggest effect of citizens juries is that most people, when provided with all the evidence in a calm and factual way, and given the chance to talk it over with others in a moderated non judgemental environment, are willing to abandon a lot of their prejudices.
This initiative - if indeed there is truth in it - may be aimed at winning round a majority to support vaccination.
As a planning exercise, it would better have been done last year. But as a hearts and minds exercise, the eye of the crisis is the optimum moment.
With any luck, emerging good news from Israel and Bahrain and hopefully the UK will create a following wind and they can wrap the task up quickly. While meanwhile giving officials a couple of weeks to get their act together
Here it is again for the hard of thinking...
The biggest obstacle to a return to normality in the presence of the virus is BoZo
Even if the government had a brilliant strategy (I don't think they do) every time he speaks he undermines it.
*cough*Cummings*cough*
The number one rule of politics is that governments lose elections more than oppositions win them. Labour's strategy should be to look sensible and electable and wait for the government to fuck up.
I agree about the runoffs. Appalling timing for the Republicans. Just the thing to motivate the remaining Dems to get out and vote, while causing the Reds to hesitate.
This is quite near the key, I think. Labour need to somehow sell themselves as both morally-minded and idealistic, but also sober and, particularly, competent. Wilsonian interventionism rather than Blairism, which Starmer's personality is well cut out for ; hence he loves Wilson.
And there's another factor - in 2005, the Scots voted heavily for Labour. I can't see that happening next time, whatever Starmer does.
Also, in 2005, Labour was led by a political genius, whatever one thinks of his record in government. The lesson of the last several decades for Labour is surely that it wins when led by Blair, and doesn't when it isn't. I just don't see Starmer as having that level of political talent - above all, the ability to catch the popular mood with a vacuous but resonant soundbite (people's princess; tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime, etc.) while offering bland, unthreatening policies.
So, I think things look pretty black for a Labour majority government, though of course it is not completely impossible.
No idea if they are a reliable source or not.
None of this should be a surprise. Boris Johnson is a shit Prime Minister. He has a long proud track record of not having a clue what was going on and then getting the sack from lying when he needed to cover his clueless tracks. As PM he has surrounded himself with a cabinet who are hopelessly incompetent, brazenly corrupt or both. But he is untouchable because of the collapse of the old political order and its replacement by Brexit.
The PM is the man who delivered Brexit, the glittering prize that will deliver salvation for all the people. So regardless of the evidence of the Tories lining their own pockets of cretinously lurching from one disaster to another or literally slaughtering tens of thousands people are still supporting them because Brexit.
Whats more they will continue to support him whilst they wait for Brexit to remove the forriners and gift them cash and jobs and prosperity as promised. Due to the end of normal civilisation there will be a short* delay in the arrival of these promised gifts so they will wait in anticipation and keep backing him.
What can Labour do about it? Nothing. Until Brexit reality kicks in - that there is no prize - the people who have gone Lab to BXP to Con or straight to Con are gone and they aren't coming back.
The US system is a little weird in that it has 10 weeks from the election to the inauguration where a defeated incumbent can moan about the result, but we are still going to see Biden sworn in at midday on 20th.
That Politics For All Twitter account is incredibly bad at linking to primary sources.
Dafuq? Its MONTHS you prannock.
In terms of the public's perception of the government fucking up, I think things can certainly get worse, and probably will. Brexit will disappoint its supporters, and "levelling up" is an empty slogan by a government whose instincts are all in the opposite direction. There's no money left. And the PM can't govern.
For the NEU and the NAHT alone to be working together they will have had to bury differences that made the Nazi-Soviet pact look like the work of bessie mates.
Regardless of the virus situation, it shows a gaping chasm has opened between those who work in schools and the DfE who supposedly run them. It's very hard to see how that will be closed when this is over.
It’s not happening with McConnell and Pelosi as Speakers, constantly seeking to undermine each other.
Must get off though. Looks to be a busy week ahead.
Blair won two landslides and a comfortable majority by talking to the majority of people in the middle - people who work as opposed to "working class". Where Labour lost its way in the last decade is that these people were largely ignored with (even in the 2015 campaign) policies only really focused on the top and bottom deciles.
I can't understand how the party has so utterly lost this connection with the middle ground considering that so many of its members are from that 80%.
We don't.
At this moment, the question is whether we can keep schools open without it. The government says they are safe, and then shuts a large chunk of them and orders vulnerable staff to isolate, which suggests they're not quite sure.
Therefore, everyone is assuming they are lying, and is acting accordingly.
I sometimes whether your posts are windups or whether you genuinely believe what you type.
@WhisperingOracle earlier suggesting that the French were going to have a better vaccine rollout than the UK was a rather brave suggestion.
I get that it might not be the best play politically... but at some point you have to respect the law.
Never heard of Brad Raffensperger but thank god he's an honest republican.
We need to be getting hundreds of thousands of jabs a day. By whatever safe means we can concoct. Based around upermarket car-parks. People who are going out and about to supermarkets are not people holed up - so are more likley to be a vector for transfer. Jab any adult shopping that wants one.
Good morning everyone!
Isn't the answer no, but there's not a lot of usage?
The department fully back the PM who blatantly lied when he repeated this weekend that schools are 'absolutely safe'. While it's true that primary age kids who are infected have very low risk indeed, that is true neither of their teachers, nor their families.
We simply don't know how much more transmissible the new variant might be in young children, but the data would suggest caution at the very least.
https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1345828841529487364
Labour is a Party whose moral compass has rusted to dust. The wider middle ground knows this.
It is not simply anti-Semitism as an issue in raising that, even if anti-Semitism is tackled ... the reason why that was able to be true still remains. A distinct lack of serious real world real employment etc concerns over student abstract ones.
The whole political class - on both sides - is as embarrassed as all hell that Trump's foul presence has polluted politics for four years. Republicans, that he was their figurehead. Democrats, that they were so demonstrably shite they couldn't stop him. All sides just want him gone, forgotten, a footnote.
Get to Biden's inauguration - and all can relax that the turd has been flushed.
Even a man of your intellectual flexibility can work that one out.
Tories being a bit shit is not on any level comparable to how low Labour sank under Corbyn.
It's very striking to see seats like Stevenage as easier targets than Sedgefield, Worcester ahead of Bolsover. Though some things never change - I think Kingswood was around about the seat Labour needed to win for a majority in 2015.
Taking a step back from the details is all that much changed from the old METTHs analysis?
Towns where many of the things that can work well in cities because of scale - public transport, most obviously - currently don't.
I think that's one of the more tricky problems for Labour. They mostly have big city solutions, speak with a big city voice, based on big city assumptions.
Having southern towns be easier targets than northern towns is still a big change. But ultimately it's still towns that need to be won over.