Labour’s paths to victory: the choices of Sir Keir Starmer – politicalbetting.com
When this crisis ends – and it will end – we'll rebuild our country together.Until then, it is our duty to stay safe, look after neighbours, and keep up the national effort that has got us this far.https://t.co/Sceh7qLFf1
An interesting lead, echoing thoughts I have been having as politics changes before our eyes.
Both parties have similar strategic choices - for the Tories, between ‘attacking’ by playing up the cultural issues and economic levelling up to try and hold their new seats, or ‘defending’ by trying to recover some of their former support among the educated middle class.
Both parties will of course try to both attack and defend, but consciously or otherwise, there will be plenty of decision spots where they have to decide where they want the next election to be fought,
Option 3 in particular is fascinating. Were I the Labour leadership that is a route worth investigating.
I am still convinced that GE 2024 hinges on Johnson. I believe the red wall is more vulnerable without Johnson at the helm and the Southern seats less so. I see none of his rivals coming close to retaining the broad support lent to Johnson.
Assuming Johnson is still in play in 2024 the result of the election will be based on how his Government are "perceived" to have performed from now until May 2024. The economy could be shot to shreds, but if enough voters still believe Johnson's "good times are ahead of us" message he could still win at a canter.
The more i think about the US election, the more i think the original plan hadn't been to cry "fraud" over mail in ballots (that was the back up). The original plan had been to discourage all Republicans from using mail in (when they had previously quite liked in), on the basis of them being insecure, but then get the post office to cripple the delivery. That is one reason why they made such a big fuss early on in Pennsylvania about the deadlines for receipt of ballots.
And what they hadn't anticipated was the widespread use of drop boxes, which cut out the post office completely (and of course the back up that they had forgotten that crippling the post office meant many other crucial things eg. drug deliveries got caught up and forced a backlash.
Option 3 in particular is fascinating. Were I the Labour leadership that is a route worth investigating.
I am still convinced that GE 2024 hinges on Johnson. I believe the red wall is more vulnerable without Johnson at the helm and the Southern seats less so. I see none of his rivals coming close to retaining the broad support lent to Johnson.
Assuming Johnson is still in play in 2024 the result of the election will be based on how his Government are "perceived" to have performed from now until May 2024. The economy could be shot to shreds, but if enough voters still believe Johnson's "good times are ahead of us" message he could still win at a canter.
Labour’s biggest problem is that the people being repelled by the current government appear to be disproportionately in seats Labour already holds (with the possible exception of the most recent Tory gains, if you believe some recent subsamples). In the South outside London the more modest fall in Tory vote share won’t deliver many more opposition seats.
» show previous quotes The US averages about 7,500 deaths on a normal day. If they're now at 12,500+, that would be staggering, a 70+% increase in the average daily death rate.
What is comparison , they have roughly 6-7 times population of England , so covid deaths appear similar. How do normal deaths in England compare. Am I missing something. Flag Quote · Off Topic Like
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
I of course fully agree with maximising vaccination efforts (assuming doses are available), but setting fixed dates for opening up is exactly what got us into the second wave in the first place. The opening up needs to be gradual. Whenever R drops a good way below 1, go down a tier, and then wait three weeks to see how things go and make the next decision.
And right now it's all about getting the epidemic back under control in the first place. Otherwise the vaccines will be too late.
On topic - excellent thoughtful header. For all Johnson's many & manifest flaws "fighting the last war" does not appear to be among them - so SKS really does need to raise his game. As was pointed out on the last thread, making hay with the UK's virtually non-existent border policy would be a good place to start. "Control" "National Security" "Protect the NHS". The campaign writes itself.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
But, tonight, the Trump tape is the story. Just staggering, but the most staggering thing of all is that we're not really surprised. Whatever happened to the United States to get to this?
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
I of course fully agree with maximising vaccination efforts (assuming doses are available), but setting fixed dates for opening up is exactly what got us into the second wave in the first place. The opening up needs to be gradual. Whenever R drops a good way below 1, go down a tier, and then wait three weeks to see how things go and make the next decision.
And right now it's all about getting the epidemic back under control in the first place. Otherwise the vaccines will be too late.
The determination to have an everything back to normal on a schedule, both summer and then Christmas, needs to be a key learning from the inquiry. How damaging was it, what drove the seemingly desperate need to undermine every safety message with the promise of imminent normality.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
I of course fully agree with maximising vaccination efforts (assuming doses are available), but setting fixed dates for opening up is exactly what got us into the second wave in the first place. The opening up needs to be gradual. Whenever R drops a good way below 1, go down a tier, and then wait three weeks to see how things go and make the next decision.
And right now it's all about getting the epidemic back under control in the first place. Otherwise the vaccines will be too late.
There needs to be a clear timetable to get the 15m in priority groups inoculated. R won’t be as key a metric if the most vulnerable are immune. (Although it should naturally fall too)
In 2005, Labour won 355 seats, a majority of 64. The Conservatives got just 198. But last year, the Conservatives took 365 seats, a majority of 80, while Labour secured just 202. The two elections as close to exact reverses of each other as you’ll ever get for the major parties.
In terms of seats, yes. But not vote shares:
2005:
Lab - 35.2% Con - 32.4%
2019:
Con - 43.6% Lab - 32.1%
It was pointed out that despite Lab being 2pp ahead in that MRP, Labour were two seats behind (excluding speaker Hoyle). The Tory vote has become more efficient, and may continue to become more so.
I think Labour need to decide more fundamentally what their purpose is, what problems they are trying to solve, and build an election-winning proposition from there.
Otherwise they are swimming in electoral currents defined by their opponents.
Option 3 in particular is fascinating. Were I the Labour leadership that is a route worth investigating.
I am still convinced that GE 2024 hinges on Johnson. I believe the red wall is more vulnerable without Johnson at the helm and the Southern seats less so. I see none of his rivals coming close to retaining the broad support lent to Johnson.
Assuming Johnson is still in play in 2024 the result of the election will be based on how his Government are "perceived" to have performed from now until May 2024. The economy could be shot to shreds, but if enough voters still believe Johnson's "good times are ahead of us" message he could still win at a canter.
Labour’s biggest problem is that the people being repelled by the current government appear to be disproportionately in seats Labour already holds (with the possible exception of the most recent Tory gains, if you believe some recent subsamples). In the South outside London the more modest fall in Tory vote share won’t deliver many more opposition seats.
It would be interesting to see -- for each of the 3 strategies -- which is the seat that Labour must take to get an overall majority.
I suspect that will tell us that not one of the 3 strategies alone will work (in the sense of delivering a Labour majority).
I don't rule out Labour as largest party in 2024, but it looks really tough to get a majority -- it needs an unusually gifted and nimble politician to do it.
SKS is not that politician, he is too pedestrian. He is no Jacinda.
I like to keep it without hyperbole but without vaccines every one is dead.
So we need minimum 20m vaccines by end March or we are finished.
I agree broadly with your numbers but not with your opening comment: most people recover perfectly well from Coronavirus, even if they have symptoms in the first place.
That is not to say that vaccinating is crucial: it is absolutely mission critical.
But, tonight, the Trump tape is the story. Just staggering, but the most staggering thing of all is that we're not really surprised. Whatever happened to the United States to get to this?
When the history is written, it’ll begin with Gingrich.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
Isn't there an argument for 24hour vaccination centres? We are fighting a war here, and it feels like we have Neville Chamberlain in charge.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
Isn't there an arguement for 24hour vaccination centres? We are fighting a war here, and it feels like we have Neville Chamberlain in charge.
Yes, but the problem appears to be supply. Keeping staff up all night with an empty fridge has no point.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
I think there are 20 million AZN doses almost ready to go, and that sound like they could all be ready in three-four weeks. I'm more worried about the logistics side of things. Take this quote from a rather unambitious official, for example
But a health source warned The Telegraph that people should not expect huge numbers overnight, saying: "We have never said we will do two million jabs a week. We have to manage expectations. You cannot vaccinate two million people a week from nothing. People will be underwhelmed by the figures if expectation is set too high."
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
Isn't there an argument for 24hour vaccination centres? We are fighting a war here, and it feels like we have Neville Chamberlain in charge.
If the vaccines are available, absolutely. We need them used as quickly as humanly possible. This is not a 9-5 effort.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
Once again: how? They ordered vaccine and the manufacturer is slow due to production problems. What do you propose that they do about it?
Illegally nationalize the UK facility and attempt to run it themselves? That a) is unlikely to make it happen faster, and b) would have shall we say unfortunate consequences for the future of the pharma sector in the UK.
Build their own facility? You know it's actually quite complicated and difficult, and can't be done at short notice?
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
Once again: how? They ordered vaccine and the manufacturer is slow due to production problems. What do you propose that they do about it?
Illegally nationalize the UK facility and attempt to run it themselves? That a) is unlikely to make it happen faster, and b) would have shall we say unfortunate consequences for the future of the pharma sector in the UK.
Build their own facility? You know it's actually quite complicated and difficult, and can't be done at short notice?
--AS
The UK government could pay for 24-hour overtime at the factory and it would still be cheaper than months of extended furlough.
But, tonight, the Trump tape is the story. Just staggering, but the most staggering thing of all is that we're not really surprised. Whatever happened to the United States to get to this?
He makes Nixon seem like Roosevelt, but nothing shocks anymore. This is somehow connected to the fact that his stock-in-trade, and the stock-in-trade of the alt-right more generally, is shock itself.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
I think there are 20 million AZN doses almost ready to go, and that sound like they could all be ready in three-four weeks. I'm more worried about the logistics side of things. Take this quote from a rather unambitious official, for example
But a health source warned The Telegraph that people should not expect huge numbers overnight, saying: "We have never said we will do two million jabs a week. We have to manage expectations. You cannot vaccinate two million people a week from nothing. People will be underwhelmed by the figures if expectation is set too high."
Quite why it can't start from 2m is beyond me.
I distinctly recall the government saying they'd be looking to vaccinate 2 million a week.
This just goes back to governments inability to manage expectation.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
Once again: how? They ordered vaccine and the manufacturer is slow due to production problems. What do you propose that they do about it?
Illegally nationalize the UK facility and attempt to run it themselves? That a) is unlikely to make it happen faster, and b) would have shall we say unfortunate consequences for the future of the pharma sector in the UK.
Build their own facility? You know it's actually quite complicated and difficult, and can't be done at short notice?
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
Isn't there an argument for 24hour vaccination centres? We are fighting a war here, and it feels like we have Neville Chamberlain in charge.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
Certifying the packed 4m doses would be a great start.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
I think there are 20 million AZN doses almost ready to go, and that sound like they could all be ready in three-four weeks. I'm more worried about the logistics side of things. Take this quote from a rather unambitious official, for example
But a health source warned The Telegraph that people should not expect huge numbers overnight, saying: "We have never said we will do two million jabs a week. We have to manage expectations. You cannot vaccinate two million people a week from nothing. People will be underwhelmed by the figures if expectation is set too high."
Quite why it can't start from 2m is beyond me.
I distinctly recall the government saying they'd be looking to vaccinate 2 million a week.
This just goes back to governments inability to manage expectation.
Just shows how unambitious some officials really are, doesn't it? I'm sure the government is pushing as hard as it can to get the rate as high as possible.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
Once again: how? They ordered vaccine and the manufacturer is slow due to production problems. What do you propose that they do about it?
Illegally nationalize the UK facility and attempt to run it themselves? That a) is unlikely to make it happen faster, and b) would have shall we say unfortunate consequences for the future of the pharma sector in the UK.
Build their own facility? You know it's actually quite complicated and difficult, and can't be done at short notice?
--AS
The UK government could pay for 24-hour overtime at the factory and it would still be cheaper than months of extended furlough.
Of course the factory could be flat-out already.
I'm sure it is already. I'm fairly sure bioreactors run around the clock in any case.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
Once again: how? They ordered vaccine and the manufacturer is slow due to production problems. What do you propose that they do about it?
Illegally nationalize the UK facility and attempt to run it themselves? That a) is unlikely to make it happen faster, and b) would have shall we say unfortunate consequences for the future of the pharma sector in the UK.
Build their own facility? You know it's actually quite complicated and difficult, and can't be done at short notice?
--AS
It’s the government’s job to overcome these problems and anticipate them. Why are we learning this now, when just a few short weeks ago we were reading about stockpiling millions of doses in readiness for MHRA approval?
I think Trump had some crazy plan to get State Legislatures to meet and submit additional certifications of electors before Wednesday, and thereby allow muddying of the waters on Jan 6th. This tape has blown it all out of the water, because any such attempt will be clearly seen for what it is - actions taken as a result of pressure, blackmail and extortion.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
Certifying the packed 4m doses would be a great start.
From what I've read there is the 500k already, with another 500k due on Monday. This leaves 4m that are in the three week monitoring window, and 15m that are ready to be bottled (which can be done rapidly), after which they have the three week monitoring.
From Tom Newton Dunn in the Times. I think Theresa May would have paid for both teas:
"Some time ago, I fetched tea for Boris Johnson every afternoon, and delivered it to him in his glass box of an office. It was my first job in journalism and he was the star columnist on the newspaper we both worked for. Johnson would always insist on paying for his tea and was generous enough to give me his internal payment card so I could buy one for myself too.
To his regular embarrassment, there was never a penny on his card and I would end up paying for both teas.
The other thing I remember is that though his articles were consistently brilliant, they were always late. Very late. Sometimes so late, the man who is now prime minister used to have to barricade himself inside his glass box to keep out the sub-editors, desperate for copy as the printing presses began to whir while he continued to tap away.
So it was with the signing of the EU-UK Trade and Co-operation Agreement."
Vaccines: the Government were expecting to have more time, with further lockdowns as a backup. The new variant has completely blown their plans out of the water, not least because the lockdowns (to the extent that they are prepared to go, and it appears the population will comply with) are not controlling it.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
I think there are 20 million AZN doses almost ready to go, and that sound like they could all be ready in three-four weeks. I'm more worried about the logistics side of things. Take this quote from a rather unambitious official, for example
But a health source warned The Telegraph that people should not expect huge numbers overnight, saying: "We have never said we will do two million jabs a week. We have to manage expectations. You cannot vaccinate two million people a week from nothing. People will be underwhelmed by the figures if expectation is set too high."
Quite why it can't start from 2m is beyond me.
Indeed. There needs to be a national effort to get the numbers up PDQ. Do what it takes. Close roads at certain times if necessary to let the trucks through. Call for volunteers JFDI.
The anxieties Covid-19 has loaded on to teachers and support staff, and the arduous realities of their work in the pandemic, are still underappreciated. Vaccinations for people who work in schools and a functioning testing system for staff and pupils are now matters of huge urgency. But there are also ways that schools could deliver at least some education in safer circumstances than the standard classroom that should have been tried way before this new meltdown.
From unions and some enlightened politicians there have been proposals for “Nightingale schools”, which might shift lessons to new, larger spaces (think of all the empty theatres, cinemas and music venues), but they have come to nothing. In Belgium and Denmark, schools have moved some of their operations to public buildings and outdoor locations. In many US states, teaching has been shifted into the open air – which has continued amid snowy weather in Maine, Colorado and New Hampshire. In the balmy conditions of the first lockdown, why wasn’t an expansion of that approach not widely trialled in the UK, so it could have been used even in the winter?
The questions go on. Though there are now promises of a million laptops and tablets for poorer households, why has the government failed so pathetically so far? Could the idea of blended learning, whereby pupils go to school part-time in smaller classes, finally achieve more prominence? Given that the internet does not reach many households, why hasn’t television been more thoroughly used to make up for the interruptions to schooling?
There are plenty of reasons to feel downcast about the state we are in, but this one is particularly painful. No field of policy is more important than state education, and in the past year a whole set of dated and rigid ideas about education has been tested to destruction. It is now time to come up with something new.
But, tonight, the Trump tape is the story. Just staggering, but the most staggering thing of all is that we're not really surprised. Whatever happened to the United States to get to this?
When the history is written, it’ll begin with Gingrich.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
Once again: how? They ordered vaccine and the manufacturer is slow due to production problems. What do you propose that they do about it?
Illegally nationalize the UK facility and attempt to run it themselves? That a) is unlikely to make it happen faster, and b) would have shall we say unfortunate consequences for the future of the pharma sector in the UK.
Build their own facility? You know it's actually quite complicated and difficult, and can't be done at short notice?
--AS
It’s the government’s job to overcome these problems and anticipate them. Why are we learning this now, when just a few short weeks ago we were reading about stockpiling millions of doses in readiness for MHRA approval?
Why?
I don't think that keeping you in the loop is their main priority.
I cannot understand your desire to blame the government for slow delivery by the manufacturer. It's irrational. I'm sure they were in close contact and offered what help they could, but unforeseen problems occur in manufacturing: it's a delicate business and no amount of huffing and puffing will make it happen faster.
I'm sure 30m vaccines are just lying about on a shelf somewhere, unclaimed by the rest of the world.
Almost exactly the situation AZN are in, 1m delivered to the UK with 19m just needing the sterile check where it pretty much lies on a shelf for three weeks.
From Tom Newton Dunn in the Times. I think Theresa May would have paid for both teas:
"Some time ago, I fetched tea for Boris Johnson every afternoon, and delivered it to him in his glass box of an office. It was my first job in journalism and he was the star columnist on the newspaper we both worked for. Johnson would always insist on paying for his tea and was generous enough to give me his internal payment card so I could buy one for myself too.
To his regular embarrassment, there was never a penny on his card and I would end up paying for both teas.
The other thing I remember is that though his articles were consistently brilliant, they were always late. Very late. Sometimes so late, the man who is now prime minister used to have to barricade himself inside his glass box to keep out the sub-editors, desperate for copy as the printing presses began to whir while he continued to tap away.
So it was with the signing of the EU-UK Trade and Co-operation Agreement."
“to his regular embarrassment” LOL.
Someone still can’t quite see through the charlatan.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
I of course fully agree with maximising vaccination efforts (assuming doses are available), but setting fixed dates for opening up is exactly what got us into the second wave in the first place. The opening up needs to be gradual. Whenever R drops a good way below 1, go down a tier, and then wait three weeks to see how things go and make the next decision.
And right now it's all about getting the epidemic back under control in the first place. Otherwise the vaccines will be too late.
There needs to be a clear timetable to get the 15m in priority groups inoculated. R won’t be as key a metric if the most vulnerable are immune. (Although it should naturally fall too)
R will still be critical. Do not forget that the vaccines only provide partial protection: around 70% according to the AZ trial, and similar is guesstimated for a single Pfizer shot.
So if you let it rip after 15M vaccinated, the health system would still get overloaded. Indeed there'd probably still be far too many serious cases just among the "non-vulnerable".
The vaccines will gradually bring R down (assuming they reduce virus spread as well as disease), and that should be the driver for gradual reopening.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
I think there are 20 million AZN doses almost ready to go, and that sound like they could all be ready in three-four weeks. I'm more worried about the logistics side of things. Take this quote from a rather unambitious official, for example
But a health source warned The Telegraph that people should not expect huge numbers overnight, saying: "We have never said we will do two million jabs a week. We have to manage expectations. You cannot vaccinate two million people a week from nothing. People will be underwhelmed by the figures if expectation is set too high."
Quite why it can't start from 2m is beyond me.
Will probably look an awful lot like the testing pledge.
We've effectively had the date set as the end of March. Slow initial ramp up, and two weeks out from that it will probably look nigh on impossible to meet, but some very large effort in the final fortnight coupled with some reasonably creative accounting (something like X million folk haven't had the vaccine by 31 March but have had an SMS message or letter through the post that says you can get it Y days from now) will be sufficient to broadly meet the pledge, if you squint a lot and don't think about it too much.
In 2005, Labour won 355 seats, a majority of 64. The Conservatives got just 198. But last year, the Conservatives took 365 seats, a majority of 80, while Labour secured just 202. The two elections as close to exact reverses of each other as you’ll ever get for the major parties.
In terms of seats, yes. But not vote shares:
2005:
Lab - 35.2% Con - 32.4%
2019:
Con - 43.6% Lab - 32.1%
It was pointed out that despite Lab being 2pp ahead in that MRP, Labour were two seats behind (excluding speaker Hoyle). The Tory vote has become more efficient, and may continue to become more so.
Labour 2 seats behind is dozens of seats ahead in reality once you take into account the SNP.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
Once again: how? They ordered vaccine and the manufacturer is slow due to production problems. What do you propose that they do about it?
Illegally nationalize the UK facility and attempt to run it themselves? That a) is unlikely to make it happen faster, and b) would have shall we say unfortunate consequences for the future of the pharma sector in the UK.
Build their own facility? You know it's actually quite complicated and difficult, and can't be done at short notice?
--AS
It’s the government’s job to overcome these problems and anticipate them. Why are we learning this now, when just a few short weeks ago we were reading about stockpiling millions of doses in readiness for MHRA approval?
Why?
I don't think that keeping you in the loop is their main priority.
I cannot understand your desire to blame the government for slow delivery by the manufacturer. It's irrational. I'm sure they were in close contact and offered what help they could, but unforeseen problems occur in manufacturing: it's a delicate business and no amount of huffing and puffing will make it happen faster.
--AS
You seem determined to defend the government despite the fact that it was openly boasting about massive stockpiles as recently as last month. Now the day arrives and it has 0.5% of its order ready to go, and health officials talking about “managing expectations” that 2m a week won’t happen.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
I think there are 20 million AZN doses almost ready to go, and that sound like they could all be ready in three-four weeks. I'm more worried about the logistics side of things. Take this quote from a rather unambitious official, for example
But a health source warned The Telegraph that people should not expect huge numbers overnight, saying: "We have never said we will do two million jabs a week. We have to manage expectations. You cannot vaccinate two million people a week from nothing. People will be underwhelmed by the figures if expectation is set too high."
Quite why it can't start from 2m is beyond me.
Will probably look an awful lot like the testing pledge.
We've effectively had the date set as the end of March. Slow initial ramp up, and two weeks out from that it will probably look nigh on impossible to meet, but some very large effort in the final fortnight coupled with some reasonably creative accounting (something like X million folk haven't had the vaccine by 31 March but have had an SMS message or letter through the post that says you can get it Y days from now) will be sufficient to broadly meet the pledge, if you squint a lot and don't think about it too much.
Or something.
Tests sent out but never returned counted as ‘tests done’, so it isn’t that great a leap to count an invitation as good as a vaccination.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
Once again: how? They ordered vaccine and the manufacturer is slow due to production problems. What do you propose that they do about it?
Illegally nationalize the UK facility and attempt to run it themselves? That a) is unlikely to make it happen faster, and b) would have shall we say unfortunate consequences for the future of the pharma sector in the UK.
Build their own facility? You know it's actually quite complicated and difficult, and can't be done at short notice?
--AS
The UK government could pay for 24-hour overtime at the factory and it would still be cheaper than months of extended furlough.
Of course the factory could be flat-out already.
What would be good would be some concrete information from Hancock on vaccine availability numbers, target rates, any production issues etc. This is not a war where the vital information needs to be kept from the enemy; the virus can't read.
But The Times is reporting that a key member of The University of Oxford vaccine team has questioned whether it would work against the South African variant.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
I of course fully agree with maximising vaccination efforts (assuming doses are available), but setting fixed dates for opening up is exactly what got us into the second wave in the first place. The opening up needs to be gradual. Whenever R drops a good way below 1, go down a tier, and then wait three weeks to see how things go and make the next decision.
And right now it's all about getting the epidemic back under control in the first place. Otherwise the vaccines will be too late.
There needs to be a clear timetable to get the 15m in priority groups inoculated. R won’t be as key a metric if the most vulnerable are immune. (Although it should naturally fall too)
R will still be critical. Do not forget that the vaccines only provide partial protection: around 70% according to the AZ trial, and similar is guesstimated for a single Pfizer shot.
So if you let it rip after 15M vaccinated, the health system would still get overloaded. Indeed there'd probably still be far too many serious cases just among the "non-vulnerable".
The vaccines will gradually bring R down (assuming they reduce virus spread as well as disease), and that should be the driver for gradual reopening.
The vast majority of deaths and hospitalisations currently are in the priority groups, so we should be able to reduce restrictions significantly (not completely) once we have worked through the first 15m.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
Once again: how? They ordered vaccine and the manufacturer is slow due to production problems. What do you propose that they do about it?
Illegally nationalize the UK facility and attempt to run it themselves? That a) is unlikely to make it happen faster, and b) would have shall we say unfortunate consequences for the future of the pharma sector in the UK.
Build their own facility? You know it's actually quite complicated and difficult, and can't be done at short notice?
--AS
It’s the government’s job to overcome these problems and anticipate them. Why are we learning this now, when just a few short weeks ago we were reading about stockpiling millions of doses in readiness for MHRA approval?
Why?
I don't think that keeping you in the loop is their main priority.
I cannot understand your desire to blame the government for slow delivery by the manufacturer. It's irrational. I'm sure they were in close contact and offered what help they could, but unforeseen problems occur in manufacturing: it's a delicate business and no amount of huffing and puffing will make it happen faster.
--AS
You seem determined to defend the government despite the fact that it was openly boasting about massive stockpiles as recently as last month. Now the day arrives and it has 0.5% of its order ready to go, and health officials talking about “managing expectations” that 2m a week won’t happen.
It must be nice to be so sanguine.
Not true. 1% is ready to go from tomorrow already, 5% are already bottled up* and 20% is already produced*.
Every living former US defence secretary signed on to this warning. It’s highly unlikely they don’t think there’s a real danger that requires their intervention.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
I think there are 20 million AZN doses almost ready to go, and that sound like they could all be ready in three-four weeks. I'm more worried about the logistics side of things. Take this quote from a rather unambitious official, for example
But a health source warned The Telegraph that people should not expect huge numbers overnight, saying: "We have never said we will do two million jabs a week. We have to manage expectations. You cannot vaccinate two million people a week from nothing. People will be underwhelmed by the figures if expectation is set too high."
Quite why it can't start from 2m is beyond me.
Will probably look an awful lot like the testing pledge.
We've effectively had the date set as the end of March. Slow initial ramp up, and two weeks out from that it will probably look nigh on impossible to meet, but some very large effort in the final fortnight coupled with some reasonably creative accounting (something like X million folk haven't had the vaccine by 31 March but have had an SMS message or letter through the post that says you can get it Y days from now) will be sufficient to broadly meet the pledge, if you squint a lot and don't think about it too much.
Or something.
It certainly doesn’t inspire confidence from here. Someone gets to get a grip and show how it can be done, and do it.
The anxieties Covid-19 has loaded on to teachers and support staff, and the arduous realities of their work in the pandemic, are still underappreciated. Vaccinations for people who work in schools and a functioning testing system for staff and pupils are now matters of huge urgency. But there are also ways that schools could deliver at least some education in safer circumstances than the standard classroom that should have been tried way before this new meltdown.
From unions and some enlightened politicians there have been proposals for “Nightingale schools”, which might shift lessons to new, larger spaces (think of all the empty theatres, cinemas and music venues), but they have come to nothing. In Belgium and Denmark, schools have moved some of their operations to public buildings and outdoor locations. In many US states, teaching has been shifted into the open air – which has continued amid snowy weather in Maine, Colorado and New Hampshire. In the balmy conditions of the first lockdown, why wasn’t an expansion of that approach not widely trialled in the UK, so it could have been used even in the winter?
The questions go on. Though there are now promises of a million laptops and tablets for poorer households, why has the government failed so pathetically so far? Could the idea of blended learning, whereby pupils go to school part-time in smaller classes, finally achieve more prominence? Given that the internet does not reach many households, why hasn’t television been more thoroughly used to make up for the interruptions to schooling?
There are plenty of reasons to feel downcast about the state we are in, but this one is particularly painful. No field of policy is more important than state education, and in the past year a whole set of dated and rigid ideas about education has been tested to destruction. It is now time to come up with something new.
Have you been in Maine or New Hampshire in the winter?
During the last two days, the temperature has not risen about the freezing point all day in Portland, Maine.
But The Times is reporting that a key member of The University of Oxford vaccine has questioned whether it would work against the South African variant.
Did they say which member? Today's comments were by John Bell who some might say has a habit of expressing strong opinions not always entirely backed up by evidence. If it's his quote I wouldn't worry too much. It's definitely one to keep an eye on, though.
But, tonight, the Trump tape is the story. Just staggering, but the most staggering thing of all is that we're not really surprised. Whatever happened to the United States to get to this?
When the history is written, it’ll begin with Gingrich.
It begins with Nixon.
I think that was a previous political age. The present polarisation dates to the post-Cold War Clinton era.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
Once again: how? They ordered vaccine and the manufacturer is slow due to production problems. What do you propose that they do about it?
Illegally nationalize the UK facility and attempt to run it themselves? That a) is unlikely to make it happen faster, and b) would have shall we say unfortunate consequences for the future of the pharma sector in the UK.
Build their own facility? You know it's actually quite complicated and difficult, and can't be done at short notice?
--AS
The UK government could pay for 24-hour overtime at the factory and it would still be cheaper than months of extended furlough.
Of course the factory could be flat-out already.
What would be good would be some concrete information from Hancock on vaccine availability numbers, target rates, any production issues etc. This is not a war where the vital information needs to be kept from the enemy; the virus can't read.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
Once again: how? They ordered vaccine and the manufacturer is slow due to production problems. What do you propose that they do about it?
Illegally nationalize the UK facility and attempt to run it themselves? That a) is unlikely to make it happen faster, and b) would have shall we say unfortunate consequences for the future of the pharma sector in the UK.
Build their own facility? You know it's actually quite complicated and difficult, and can't be done at short notice?
--AS
It’s the government’s job to overcome these problems and anticipate them. Why are we learning this now, when just a few short weeks ago we were reading about stockpiling millions of doses in readiness for MHRA approval?
Why?
I don't think that keeping you in the loop is their main priority.
I cannot understand your desire to blame the government for slow delivery by the manufacturer. It's irrational. I'm sure they were in close contact and offered what help they could, but unforeseen problems occur in manufacturing: it's a delicate business and no amount of huffing and puffing will make it happen faster.
--AS
I'm really not sure how you can absolve the government here. They should have been in constant communication with manufacturers as approvals came online - and adjusted their communication plans to suit.
Whst we have is a population that won't be vaccinated quickly enough and mis-communication in light of the second dose being cancelled.
That's not even scratching the surface of the now non existent test and trace, or the NHS app, or the tier system, or the fiasco with schools.
How many missteps can the government make? More worryingly, it doesn't seem to learn from any of its mistakes
But The Times is reporting that a key member of The University of Oxford vaccine team has questioned whether it would work against the South African variant.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
I of course fully agree with maximising vaccination efforts (assuming doses are available), but setting fixed dates for opening up is exactly what got us into the second wave in the first place. The opening up needs to be gradual. Whenever R drops a good way below 1, go down a tier, and then wait three weeks to see how things go and make the next decision.
And right now it's all about getting the epidemic back under control in the first place. Otherwise the vaccines will be too late.
There needs to be a clear timetable to get the 15m in priority groups inoculated. R won’t be as key a metric if the most vulnerable are immune. (Although it should naturally fall too)
R will still be critical. Do not forget that the vaccines only provide partial protection: around 70% according to the AZ trial, and similar is guesstimated for a single Pfizer shot.
So if you let it rip after 15M vaccinated, the health system would still get overloaded. Indeed there'd probably still be far too many serious cases just among the "non-vulnerable".
The vaccines will gradually bring R down (assuming they reduce virus spread as well as disease), and that should be the driver for gradual reopening.
This is the bit that worries me.
Is there a working vaccine? Yes Will that get into enough people given time? Yes Will the government be able to resist siren calls to relax restrictions prematurely? Erm...
But The Times is reporting that a key member of The University of Oxford vaccine team has questioned whether it would work against the South African variant.
Presumably Sunetra Gupta thinks the South African variant is so infectious it has already infected everyone anyway, so there's nothing to worry about.
But The Times is reporting that a key member of The University of Oxford vaccine team has questioned whether it would work against the South African variant.
But The Times is reporting that a key member of The University of Oxford vaccine team has questioned whether it would work against the South African variant.
Close.
The.
Fucking.
Borders.
The bigger picture - if this is true - isnt so much this particular mutation from South Africa, but the hugely greater likelihood that Corona becomes like flu and requires new vaccination to be developed as it mutates into new forms. What happens once can and will happen again.
But The Times is reporting that a key member of The University of Oxford vaccine has questioned whether it would work against the South African variant.
Did they say which member? Today's comments were by John Bell who some might say has a habit of expressing strong opinions not always entirely backed up by evidence. If it's his quote I wouldn't worry too much. It's definitely one to keep an eye on, though.
--AS
I'm just going off the front page of The Times, they don't mention a name, I'd expect the name to be mentioned in detail, but tomorrow's edition usually goes live around 00.15 on The Times website.
From Tom Newton Dunn in the Times. I think Theresa May would have paid for both teas:
"Some time ago, I fetched tea for Boris Johnson every afternoon, and delivered it to him in his glass box of an office. It was my first job in journalism and he was the star columnist on the newspaper we both worked for. Johnson would always insist on paying for his tea and was generous enough to give me his internal payment card so I could buy one for myself too.
To his regular embarrassment, there was never a penny on his card and I would end up paying for both teas.
The other thing I remember is that though his articles were consistently brilliant, they were always late. Very late. Sometimes so late, the man who is now prime minister used to have to barricade himself inside his glass box to keep out the sub-editors, desperate for copy as the printing presses began to whir while he continued to tap away.
So it was with the signing of the EU-UK Trade and Co-operation Agreement."
“to his regular embarrassment” LOL.
Someone still can’t quite see through the charlatan.
But The Times is reporting that a key member of The University of Oxford vaccine team has questioned whether it would work against the South African variant.
Certainly the South African variety is more concerning as it has mutations on both arms of the spike protein, cockney covid has it on only one. There are many antibody binding sites, so unlikely to have no effect at all.
One of the AZN trials is in South Africa and is continuing, so we should know fairly soon whether it is a problem.
Any new measures must be coupled with a clear timeline for vaccination of the vulnerable.
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
They've had nine bloody months to build a vaccination strategy. Maybe we will see some serious action tomorrow.
It’s simply pathetic that having ordered 100m AZ doses, they start off tomorrow with just 500k, and we have only learned of this in the last few days. They need to step everything up, and fast. Get this done.
Once again: how? They ordered vaccine and the manufacturer is slow due to production problems. What do you propose that they do about it?
Illegally nationalize the UK facility and attempt to run it themselves? That a) is unlikely to make it happen faster, and b) would have shall we say unfortunate consequences for the future of the pharma sector in the UK.
Build their own facility? You know it's actually quite complicated and difficult, and can't be done at short notice?
--AS
It’s the government’s job to overcome these problems and anticipate them. Why are we learning this now, when just a few short weeks ago we were reading about stockpiling millions of doses in readiness for MHRA approval?
Why?
I don't think that keeping you in the loop is their main priority.
I cannot understand your desire to blame the government for slow delivery by the manufacturer. It's irrational. I'm sure they were in close contact and offered what help they could, but unforeseen problems occur in manufacturing: it's a delicate business and no amount of huffing and puffing will make it happen faster.
--AS
I'm really not sure how you can absolve the government here. They should have been in constant communication with manufacturers as approvals came online - and adjusted their communication plans to suit.
Whst we have is a population that won't be vaccinated quickly enough and mis-communication in light of the second dose being cancelled.
That's not even scratching the surface of the now non existent test and trace, or the NHS app, or the tier system, or the fiasco with schools.
How many missteps can the government make? More worryingly, it doesn't seem to learn from any of its mistakes
Oh, look, I'm not going to defend the government's communication at all. It's been lamentable from the start and they do not, as you say, learn from their mistakes. (I'm quite sure they have been in constant contact with the manufacturer -- indeed, the regulators must have been -- but they have not kept the public up to date.)
But we should not confuse the communication with the fact of supply. I cannot blame the government for a supplier being late on delivery. Especially not when the manufacturing process is so specialized and there are so many things that can go wrong. If you want to get mad as someone, turn your ire on AstraZeneca!
Is it too late to impeach Trump? This is high crimes and misdemeanours without a doubt. Forcing Republican senators to take a position on this just might free the Republicans from his baleful influence.
But The Times is reporting that a key member of The University of Oxford vaccine team has questioned whether it would work against the South African variant.
Comments
Both parties have similar strategic choices - for the Tories, between ‘attacking’ by playing up the cultural issues and economic levelling up to try and hold their new seats, or ‘defending’ by trying to recover some of their former support among the educated middle class.
Both parties will of course try to both attack and defend, but consciously or otherwise, there will be plenty of decision spots where they have to decide where they want the next election to be fought,
Show us how we reach 15m in 7-9 weeks, by the end of the winter. Then explain how the country will be opened up in early spring.
Call for a nationwide volunteer drive to increase vaccination rates.
Even school closures all winter will be tolerated if there is a clear timetable and end goal.
Why do I fear the government will be incapable of building such a strategy?
Option 3 in particular is fascinating. Were I the Labour leadership that is a route worth investigating.
I am still convinced that GE 2024 hinges on Johnson. I believe the red wall is more vulnerable without Johnson at the helm and the Southern seats less so. I see none of his rivals coming close to retaining the broad support lent to Johnson.
Assuming Johnson is still in play in 2024 the result of the election will be based on how his Government are "perceived" to have performed from now until May 2024. The economy could be shot to shreds, but if enough voters still believe Johnson's "good times are ahead of us" message he could still win at a canter.
And what they hadn't anticipated was the widespread use of drop boxes, which cut out the post office completely (and of course the back up that they had forgotten that crippling the post office meant many other crucial things eg. drug deliveries got caught up and forced a backlash.
https://twitter.com/DanRather/status/1345834047503646722?s=20
rcs1000 said:
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The US averages about 7,500 deaths on a normal day. If they're now at 12,500+, that would be staggering, a 70+% increase in the average daily death rate.
What is comparison , they have roughly 6-7 times population of England , so covid deaths appear similar. How do normal deaths in England compare. Am I missing something.
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CarlottaVance said:
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No.
Cases 40% worse Malc.
Nats & Maths, eh?
Can you explain your Maths
And right now it's all about getting the epidemic back under control in the first place. Otherwise the vaccines will be too late.
So we need minimum 20m vaccines by end March or we are finished.
But, tonight, the Trump tape is the story. Just staggering, but the most staggering thing of all is that we're not really surprised. Whatever happened to the United States to get to this?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/georgia-senate-polls/
The Atlas one has the most recent data up to Jan 1st and has Ossoff +4 and Warnock +3
I'm starting to wonder if my 3/1 might just happen although I accept that's the least important part of that possible outcome
In terms of seats, yes. But not vote shares:
2005:
Lab - 35.2%
Con - 32.4%
2019:
Con - 43.6%
Lab - 32.1%
It was pointed out that despite Lab being 2pp ahead in that MRP, Labour were two seats behind (excluding speaker Hoyle). The Tory vote has become more efficient, and may continue to become more so.
I think Labour need to decide more fundamentally what their purpose is, what problems they are trying to solve, and build an election-winning proposition from there.
Otherwise they are swimming in electoral currents defined by their opponents.
I suspect that will tell us that not one of the 3 strategies alone will work (in the sense of delivering a Labour majority).
I don't rule out Labour as largest party in 2024, but it looks really tough to get a majority -- it needs an unusually gifted and nimble politician to do it.
SKS is not that politician, he is too pedestrian. He is no Jacinda.
That is not to say that vaccinating is crucial: it is absolutely mission critical.
Lock him up.
Because by then will believe they are better off and that he saw off the virus. Sir Keir is competent enough but he's not Boris.
I derive no pleasure at all from writing that. Head over heart though and I'm betting accordingly.
But a health source warned The Telegraph that people should not expect huge numbers overnight, saying: "We have never said we will do two million jabs a week. We have to manage expectations. You cannot vaccinate two million people a week from nothing. People will be underwhelmed by the figures if expectation is set too high."
Quite why it can't start from 2m is beyond me.
Illegally nationalize the UK facility and attempt to run it themselves? That a) is unlikely to make it happen faster, and b) would have shall we say unfortunate consequences for the future of the pharma sector in the UK.
Build their own facility? You know it's actually quite complicated and difficult, and can't be done at short notice?
--AS
Of course the factory could be flat-out already.
This just goes back to governments inability to manage expectation.
--AS
Why?
The North is increasingly trending Tory, the South trending Labour.
And this is meant to be unconnected? 🤔
"Some time ago, I fetched tea for Boris Johnson every afternoon, and delivered it to him in his glass box of an office. It was my first job in journalism and he was the star columnist on the newspaper we both worked for. Johnson would always insist on paying for his tea and was generous enough to give me his internal payment card so I could buy one for myself too.
To his regular embarrassment, there was never a penny on his card and I would end up paying for both teas.
The other thing I remember is that though his articles were consistently brilliant, they were always late. Very late. Sometimes so late, the man who is now prime minister used to have to barricade himself inside his glass box to keep out the sub-editors, desperate for copy as the printing presses began to whir while he continued to tap away.
So it was with the signing of the EU-UK Trade and Co-operation Agreement."
Sort it out Boris
The anxieties Covid-19 has loaded on to teachers and support staff, and the arduous realities of their work in the pandemic, are still underappreciated. Vaccinations for people who work in schools and a functioning testing system for staff and pupils are now matters of huge urgency. But there are also ways that schools could deliver at least some education in safer circumstances than the standard classroom that should have been tried way before this new meltdown.
From unions and some enlightened politicians there have been proposals for “Nightingale schools”, which might shift lessons to new, larger spaces (think of all the empty theatres, cinemas and music venues), but they have come to nothing. In Belgium and Denmark, schools have moved some of their operations to public buildings and outdoor locations. In many US states, teaching has been shifted into the open air – which has continued amid snowy weather in Maine, Colorado and New Hampshire. In the balmy conditions of the first lockdown, why wasn’t an expansion of that approach not widely trialled in the UK, so it could have been used even in the winter?
The questions go on. Though there are now promises of a million laptops and tablets for poorer households, why has the government failed so pathetically so far? Could the idea of blended learning, whereby pupils go to school part-time in smaller classes, finally achieve more prominence? Given that the internet does not reach many households, why hasn’t television been more thoroughly used to make up for the interruptions to schooling?
There are plenty of reasons to feel downcast about the state we are in, but this one is particularly painful. No field of policy is more important than state education, and in the past year a whole set of dated and rigid ideas about education has been tested to destruction. It is now time to come up with something new.
https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1345860364202876928?s=20
I cannot understand your desire to blame the government for slow delivery by the manufacturer. It's irrational. I'm sure they were in close contact and offered what help they could, but unforeseen problems occur in manufacturing: it's a delicate business and no amount of huffing and puffing will make it happen faster.
--AS
Someone still can’t quite see through the charlatan.
35m would be good. Nothing wrong in seeking to improve outcomes.
So if you let it rip after 15M vaccinated, the health system would still get overloaded. Indeed there'd probably still be far too many serious cases just among the "non-vulnerable".
The vaccines will gradually bring R down (assuming they reduce virus spread as well as disease), and that should be the driver for gradual reopening.
We've effectively had the date set as the end of March. Slow initial ramp up, and two weeks out from that it will probably look nigh on impossible to meet, but some very large effort in the final fortnight coupled with some reasonably creative accounting (something like X million folk haven't had the vaccine by 31 March but have had an SMS message or letter through the post that says you can get it Y days from now) will be sufficient to broadly meet the pledge, if you squint a lot and don't think about it too much.
Or something.
It must be nice to be so sanguine.
But The Times is reporting that a key member of The University of Oxford vaccine team has questioned whether it would work against the South African variant.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1345709958508249088?s=09
As of the report a few days ago.
It’s highly unlikely they don’t think there’s a real danger that requires their intervention.
https://twitter.com/SCClemons/status/1345862319650336769
During the last two days, the temperature has not risen about the freezing point all day in Portland, Maine.
https://tinyurl.com/y7l929g4
I do not believe that teachers in Maine/New Hampshire are teaching in the open air in the New England winters.
--AS
Whst we have is a population that won't be vaccinated quickly enough and mis-communication in light of the second dose being cancelled.
That's not even scratching the surface of the now non existent test and trace, or the NHS app, or the tier system, or the fiasco with schools.
How many missteps can the government make? More worryingly, it doesn't seem to learn from any of its mistakes
The.
Fucking.
Borders.
Is there a working vaccine? Yes
Will that get into enough people given time? Yes
Will the government be able to resist siren calls to relax restrictions prematurely? Erm...
No vaccinations until 2022. So I will have to stay in and only communicate via pb.com
Thanks for coming Boris
https://twitter.com/Williams_T_C/status/1345708240382918658
One of the AZN trials is in South Africa and is continuing, so we should know fairly soon whether it is a problem.
But we should not confuse the communication with the fact of supply. I cannot blame the government for a supplier being late on delivery. Especially not when the manufacturing process is so specialized and there are so many things that can go wrong. If you want to get mad as someone, turn your ire on AstraZeneca!
--AS
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55428953