Trump preparing for GOP losses in the Georgia runoffs? He Tweets that the races are “illegal and inv

Flatlander said:

kinabalu said:

RobD said:

Tres said:

Another benefit of Brexit? Lots of runners reporting GPS tracking is wildly off since we left.

I find that exceedingly unlikely given GPS has absolutely nothing to do with the EU.

It's the butterfly effect. You see it in IT a lot. When you make a big change you are supposed to not just test the new functionality but also do something called regression testing to make sure that other ostensibly unrelated things are not fucked up. But it's not the glamour end of the business - to put it mildly - and so is invariably skimped. The upshot is that in the days and weeks following implementation you often find some surprising things going wrong. Things that used to work just fine now do not.

I imagine that's what has happened here with Brexit and GPS. Another casualty of Johnson's trademark slapdashery.

Yes, GPS devices have gone slightly wrong all over the planet because of Brexit. That seems likely.

Or perhaps Garmin just need to make sure that their published satellite almanac is up to date.

You see this in IT a lot. You make one small change and then get lots of complaints that your change caused problems, whereas in fact 99% of the complaints are user error or completely unrelated.

Yes that happens too. Fair point. It could be that or it could be what I suggest. Let's track it and see.

Foxy said:

Omnium said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

NHS requiring your inside leg measurement and wang length before being allowed to be consideered for.volunteering to help with vaccination drive has finally been picked up by BBC..

BBC News - Coronavirus: Medics complain of 'bureaucracy' in bid to join Covid vaccine effort
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55516277

'Some medics have been asked for proof they are trained in areas such as preventing radicalisation.'

Insane. They are going to see each person for what, five minutes?

Can't be too.careful....ISIS recruiters might use the queues as an opportunity to get some.new recruits...especially among all those OAPs currently getting vaccinated.

As I pointed out at Breakfast: it is this government that made Prevent Training compulsory, and withdrew prescribing rights for retired doctors, by establishing the rules for Revalidation and License to practice in 2012.

Its almost as if they are a bunch of turnip heads...

So Random capitilisation is the source of iSIs radicalism?

Edit: Sorry I was being mean here. It was unfair.

Prevent Training is correctly capitalised, as it is a Proper Noun, as are Revalidation and Licence. I will concede on Breakfast 🙄

What is 'Prevent Training' though? (I can obviously look it up, but I've not done so). Is 'Revalidation and License' a thing or is it 'Revalidation and License to practice'. I suspect the latter, but don't understand the sins of the word practice? Surely it can get the benefits of the capitalisation largesse.

I'd not begrudge you the most capital B of breakfasts though.

Richard_Tyndall said:

On topic I honestly don't think Trump cares two hoots about the GOP or the Georgia elections. He never did care for the GOP except as a vehicle to get him into and keep him in power and now that that has failed I think he will gladly see it crash and burn.

However he needs ownership of the GOP brand to stay relevant and be default leader of the opposition to the Biden administration

JohnLilburne said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Feel sorry for the Doctors, they are in engaging in battlefield triage effectively.

NHS bosses are set to cancel urgent surgery across London in a move that could mean cancer patients waiting months for potentially lifesaving operations, the Observer can reveal.

NHS England chiefs are considering the drastic action because hospitals across the capital are becoming overwhelmed by people who are very sick with Covid-19.

The operations likely to be cancelled, known as “priority two” procedures, mainly involve surgery for cancer where specialists have judged that the patients need to be operated on within four weeks. Any delay could allow their tumour to grow, the disease to spread or both, thus reducing their chances of survival.

Health service executives and cancer experts fear patients’ cancers may worsen, or even become inoperable, if surgery is postponed for an unknown length of time.

“These are operations that are curative if done within four weeks but if you wait longer they may not be so effective”, said one senior London NHS figure. “The impact of this on patients’ health depends on when they get rebooked. Delaying cancer surgery can lead to tumours growing or spreading – and worse outcomes.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/02/cancer-operations-face-cancellation-across-london-as-covid-patients-fill-hospitals

Surely battlefield triage would mean assessing that patients are too ill or frail from COVID to survive, and refusing to admit them

They will do that as well.

Omnium said:

Foxy said:

Omnium said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

NHS requiring your inside leg measurement and wang length before being allowed to be consideered for.volunteering to help with vaccination drive has finally been picked up by BBC..

BBC News - Coronavirus: Medics complain of 'bureaucracy' in bid to join Covid vaccine effort
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55516277

'Some medics have been asked for proof they are trained in areas such as preventing radicalisation.'

Insane. They are going to see each person for what, five minutes?

Can't be too.careful....ISIS recruiters might use the queues as an opportunity to get some.new recruits...especially among all those OAPs currently getting vaccinated.

As I pointed out at Breakfast: it is this government that made Prevent Training compulsory, and withdrew prescribing rights for retired doctors, by establishing the rules for Revalidation and License to practice in 2012.

Its almost as if they are a bunch of turnip heads...

So Random capitilisation is the source of iSIs radicalism?

Edit: Sorry I was being mean here. It was unfair.

Prevent Training is correctly capitalised, as it is a Proper Noun, as are Revalidation and Licence. I will concede on Breakfast 🙄

What is 'Prevent Training' though? (I can obviously look it up, but I've not done so). Is 'Revalidation and License' a thing or is it 'Revalidation and License to practice'. I suspect the latter, but don't understand the sins of the word practice? Surely it can get the benefits of the capitalisation largesse.

I'd not begrudge you the most capital B of breakfasts though.

"Prevent Training" is the government program for notifying suspect terrorists. It has been made mandatory for some years.

Revalidation is a requirement of the GMC to be issued a Licence to Practice.

kinabalu said:

Flatlander said:

kinabalu said:

RobD said:

Tres said:

Another benefit of Brexit? Lots of runners reporting GPS tracking is wildly off since we left.

I find that exceedingly unlikely given GPS has absolutely nothing to do with the EU.

It's the butterfly effect. You see it in IT a lot. When you make a big change you are supposed to not just test the new functionality but also do something called regression testing to make sure that other ostensibly unrelated things are not fucked up. But it's not the glamour end of the business - to put it mildly - and so is invariably skimped. The upshot is that in the days and weeks following implementation you often find some surprising things going wrong. Things that used to work just fine now do not.

I imagine that's what has happened here with Brexit and GPS. Another casualty of Johnson's trademark slapdashery.

Yes, GPS devices have gone slightly wrong all over the planet because of Brexit. That seems likely.

Or perhaps Garmin just need to make sure that their published satellite almanac is up to date.

You see this in IT a lot. You make one small change and then get lots of complaints that your change caused problems, whereas in fact 99% of the complaints are user error or completely unrelated.

Yes that happens too. Fair point. It could be that or it could be what I suggest. Let's track it and see.

via Garmin:

"UPDATED 1/2/2021:

Please be aware that we are aware of the serious GPS issue that 2021 has brought upon the Fenix 6 series watches and we are investigating reports. The issue seems to be impacting not only Garmin but some of our competitors too.

On your watch, if you go to System > About and CPE shows Expired, please give 5 full minutes outdoors with no movement before every Outdoor activity. This is a workaround while our engineers get the issue resolved.

We hope to have this issue resolved as quickly as possible and this issue is our #1 highest priority."


CPE = Satellite almanac

MattW said:

another_richard said:

noneoftheabove said:

kle4 said:

noneoftheabove said:

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1345410866913673219

Wait, I thought it was congestion that was going to cripple trade?

Call absolute bullshit on a Romanian lorry driver actually staying in Romania to work...the money differential is enormous, that's why they spend months every year on the road away from home in the first place.

It is karma for all the bullshit bendy banana stories that Brexiters managed to get into the press for so long.

It is quite sweet to see Brexiteers expecting our relationship with the EU to be reported accurately and neutrally rather than sensationalised and exaggerated.

That's quite true, but people also need to be content to lose any moral high ground if they are to so happy about that.

Its not a question of high ground, its accepting reality. The press misreported on the EU because it sells and makes journalists careers (see the PM for one). It is hugely naive not to expect the same to happen with Brexit.

It is good that those who have benefited from fake news are now going to have to put up with it, not because its fair or moral that they should, but because it increases the chance that we might eventually agree to tackle it.

We've been putting up with it since the referendum.

With all the lies about imminent job losses and 'the crops are rotting in the fields'.

Actually those lies started before the referendum.

Sigh. These are going to get tedious. I thought we were suppose to be looking ahead.

If they really like we could have two games of Historical Bullshit Bingo going; one for the Rump Remainers and one for the thicker of the Scottish Nationalists. It will be a tedious exercise.

Please, do you have to expose your prejudices quiet so nakedly? There may be ladies present.

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

CNN: 2021 could see Britain ripped to pieces

It's not hard to see why the SNP's platform - leaving the UK and re-joining the EU under the leadership of Sturgeon - is so appealing to many north of the border. Conservatives in England are seriously worried that Johnson doesn't have either the energy or passion needed to combat it.

"There is genuine fear that Scotland could go under this government and that there is no energy going into addressing that," says one MP on the government's payroll. "We've struggled to make an emotional case for the Union. Partly that's because our focus is on our heartlands in England, but we are going to need to make a positive case beyond the economic benefits to Scotland."

Also, the more now Britain shifts from the EU, the more in common Northern Ireland has with the EU, and thus the Republic of Ireland," says Katy Hayward, professor of political sociology at Queen's University Belfast. The issue of the north becoming closer to the Republic has put a spring in the step of those who dream of reunification.

"Soft-nationalists who were pro-European -- and even some soft-Unionists -- have been forced to seriously rethink what Northern Ireland is and should be," says Matthew O'Toole, a Northern Irish lawmaker for the pro-reunification Social Democratic and Labour Party.

Since Johnson faces the prospect of fighting in Scotland and Northern Ireland, he risks overlooking Wales. "Covid has highlighted what devolution actually means, in terms of Welsh politicians being able to make independent policy that directly affects Welsh people," says Roger Awan-Scully, professor of politics at Cardiff University. “If Conservatives take a more aggressive line against devolution and pro-centralised control from London, it risks emboldening the anti-Westminster movement in Wales”.

If Johnson is unable to make leaving the EU look like a success and he alienates the public in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, it's inevitable that more and more voters will wonder if the grass is greener outside of the United Kingdom.

Another piece of journalism from the US where the wish is father to the thought......

Plenty of anti indy pieces form outside Scotland (ie England) where the wish is father to the thought. Fortunately the puir, wee bastirt is increasingly fatherless in Scotland.

Plenty of pro “Indy” from RT though perhaps? How useful are you to Putin would you say? Brexiteers and Scottish Nationalists: peas in the pod of Putins grand scheme to gull the most gullible.

Where's my Money, Mitch !

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/01/mitch-mcconnells-home-vandalized-weres-money-one-day-pigs-head-left-pelosis-house-video/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=websitesharingbuttons

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

The Lib Dems need to work out what they're for. They died with their boots on opposing Brexit.

The LDs exist currently as a relatively fiscally conservative, socially liberal party for diehard Remainers or Unionists in Scotland.

With Labour now the party for social democrats, the Tories the party for Brexiteers and the SNP the party for Scottish nationalists there is not really much room for them to be much else

Don’t completely agree. a lot of people still don’t trust Labour, and the Tories are the party of the populist far right for the time being. Until the former really throw off the stigma of the Corbyn years and kick out the far left and the Tories eventually realise Johnson is a rudderless joke And replace him with someone competent then there are plenty of opportunities for the LDs. They will need to bide their time. Personally I think their fortunes will track Kier Starmer’s. If Starmer does well and Labour is no longer seen as a threat to moderates, the LDs will ale centrist seats as they did in 1997.

I agree the LDs best hope is still posh Remain areas that will still not vote Labour ie SW London, Wimbledon, Winchester, West Oxford, St Albans, Esher and Walton, Guildford, Wokingham, Cities of London and Westminster, Bath, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells etc

JohnLilburne said:

Mysticrose said:

JohnLilburne said:

TimT said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

RobD said:

Tres said:

Another benefit of Brexit? Lots of runners reporting GPS tracking is wildly off since we left.

I find that exceedingly unlikely given GPS has absolutely nothing to do with the EU.

It's the butterfly effect. You see it in IT a lot. When you make a big change you are supposed to not just test the new functionality but also do something called regression testing to make sure that other ostensibly unrelated things are not fucked up. But it's not the glamour end of the business - to put it mildly - and so is invariably skimped. The upshot is that in the days and weeks following implementation you often find some surprising things going wrong. Things that used to work just fine now do not.

I imagine that's what has happened here with Brexit and GPS. Another casualty of Johnson's trademark slapdashery.

Given GPS is American what will Brexit have changed?

I find it incredibly hard to believe.

I suspect final analysis will prove that this is not the Butterfly Effect (properly a property of chaotic systems where tiny changes in inputs below the threshold of measurement may result in massive changes in outputs), but rather the Coincidence Effect, very well understood by those conducting vaccine trials.

It's horseshit. GPS is always inaccurate. My watch has GPS and Glonass (the Russian system) a few newer ones will have Galileo but it won't make much odds. Overcast weather is a much likelier culprit.

My iPhone GPS tracker on the Ordnance Survey App (GB and Parks) is remarkably accurate. Better than anything else I've ever used.

Actually I struggled to get a position using OSMAnd on my walk yesterday so @Flatlander might have a point. Today's 5k time trial ended slightly before I might have expected it to, but it was within normal error and I don't necessarily start at the same place or take the racing line all the way roud. Was my fastest 5k in over two years, as it turns out.

Phones *can* be much better in built up areas than GPS watches.

GPS only systems are vulnerable to multi pathing - reflection off buildings etc.

Phone navigation often uses Wifi signals, cell data etc to fill in for poor/non-existent GPS

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

The Lib Dems need to work out what they're for. They died with their boots on opposing Brexit.

I’m almost certain that they are going to be rejoin party at the next election. They’ve nowhere else to go.

There are maybe 14 voters who will go "Yay" Let's reopen the Brexit issue!!"

About 28 million who will go "Leave. That. Shit. ALONE."

Barnesian said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

According to the poll, the Liberal Democrats would crumble to just two seats in parliament, down from 11 won in the last general election.

A quarter of those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 say they would now vote Labour. The poll says the Lib Dems would cling on only to Bath, and Kingston and Surbiton, both by the tightest of margins. The party won 62 seats in 2005.

So either the Lib Dem’s are done - I actually think it’s possible they get wiped out next time - or perhaps mid-term polling is a waste of time.

I genuinely think they are done.

At the last election they were the only GB wide party with a polarised electorate, they were pitching for 48% of voters and they ballsed that up.

Even in my own seat, where Jared O'Mara had done so much to put off people voting Labour the Lib Dems failed, there's something really wrong. It's just not the impact of going into coalition with the Tories.

As a LD party member, I agree that at national level things look very bleak. In England the anti-Tory vote is consolidating with Labour. Bad for LDs, but probably worse for the Tories, as in target seats both LD and Green will vote tactically, in a way they would not for Corbyn.

And in marginal Tory/LD seats, pro-EU Tories will vote LD where they wouldn't last time because of Corbyn.

I'm surprised by the antipathy to Johnson and his cabinet by Tories here in Barnes including Tory members. They are spitting angry.

But that's part of why Boris isn't going to be PM at the next election, he'll last out until he's PM for longer than Theresa May but ultimately he's already made too many mistakes this year and burned far too much political capital to ensure his own survival.

Boris brings precisely one thing to the table - he's a winner. If he looks like he's not going to win then there's little point to keeping him around. MPs looking at their own majorities in the middle of next year when the Tories are 5 points down on Labour will make their move. Boris has made too many enemies in the parliamentary party, very much like Theresa May did, just for reasons other than Brexit.

Metatron said:

There is a space in UK politics for a genuinely Free Speech party which the Lib Dems could in theory.Unfortunatley they are as big a part of Cancel Culture.In 2019 the Lib Dems voted with all the other mainline opposition parties to try to make any criticism of Islam an 'Islamophobic' offence which fortunately failed.The same political forces are now celebrating BLM in a depressing sycophantic manner.The Lib Dems need to find some politicians like the admirable Kemi Badenoch.If they do not they are gifting the next election to either people voting for the Tories on cultural grounds or voting for Labour & SNP on competence grounds

I would think about voting LD if they were liberals.

Very Zoomy Leftie Twitter is beside itself with this Starmer rumour.

Current theories: he's got the Rona, he's had a heart attack, he's an alcoholic and running over that cyclist was no coincidence, The Sun have got dick pix.

Or, it could just be bollocks, who knows?

Where is Zahawi as the vaccination process goes down the tubes, the useless git has not been seen or heard of since he got the job. Maybe being tutored by Dido on how to do things. You would think when it is such a shambles he might put his head above the parapet and try to calm fraying nerves.

Nigel_Foremain said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1345433452682878976

Those green and brexit shares look too high, and the election is over 3 years away. I'm not sure that the situation now will relate to 2024 that well.

Agreed, but it shows a trend. The electorate may be waking up slowly to the idea that Boris Johnson is not up to the job, or it could be that We are seeing a return to normal mid term polling. My hope is that the Tories get rid of the clown/Trump-Lite and replace him with someone competent and prime ministerial in the next three years That way I might be able to vote for them again.

Boris is still the best Tory votewinner since Thatcher and when the Tories got rid of her they won only 1 general election majority in the next 25 years

JohnLilburne said:

Foxy said:

MattW said:

Foxy said:

Omnium said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

NHS requiring your inside leg measurement and wang length before being allowed to be consideered for.volunteering to help with vaccination drive has finally been picked up by BBC..

BBC News - Coronavirus: Medics complain of 'bureaucracy' in bid to join Covid vaccine effort
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55516277

'Some medics have been asked for proof they are trained in areas such as preventing radicalisation.'

Insane. They are going to see each person for what, five minutes?

Can't be too.careful....ISIS recruiters might use the queues as an opportunity to get some.new recruits...especially among all those OAPs currently getting vaccinated.

As I pointed out at Breakfast: it is this government that made Prevent Training compulsory, and withdrew prescribing rights for retired doctors, by establishing the rules for Revalidation and License to practice in 2012.

Its almost as if they are a bunch of turnip heads...

So Random capitilisation is the source of iSIs radicalism?

Edit: Sorry I was being mean here. It was unfair.

Prevent Training is correctly capitalised, as it is a Proper Noun, as are Revalidation and Licence. I will concede on Breakfast 🙄

The staff canteen at my local District Hospital is the only one in the place that serves traditional Full English breakfasts

Admittedly it was 30 years ago, but I used to work in a hospital where all the patients in the cardiac ward got a Full English each morning.

Actually, breakfast is by far the best meal in any hospital canteen. Like traditional boiled sponge puddings, it is one thing that mass scale cooking is better at than small scale.

I had a portly friend whose wife put him on a diet, who used to get in early for a hospital Full English each morning. In his view it was the height of bad manners to lose weight faster than his wife...

I used to work at a hospital that had an ambulance station attached. Did a good Full English, which I would normally avoid but often had a black pudding sandwich for a morning snack when they were selling off the breakfast items. The hospital was desperate to get them to sell healthy items but the ambulance crews would have none of it, they wanted a proper breakfast when coming off the night shift. As I am now low carb, I am in the happy position of regarding a Full English as being a healthy meal as long as it doesn't come with beans or toast.

John , you must have toast and beans for it to be real.

The delivery from Waitrose arrived right on time and I thoroughly enjoyed my ham and pineapple pizza. Washed down with a bottle of Guinness West Indies Porter. The only downer was that they had run out of mince pies. I can't comment on supplies of Good Brie as not being part of the Metropolitan Elite I don't eat it.

In seriousness, I would urge everyone to get home delivery or click and collect wherever possible. Why expose yourself to the risk inside a supermarket if you can avoid it?

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

JohnLilburne said:

Mysticrose said:

JohnLilburne said:

TimT said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

RobD said:

Tres said:

Another benefit of Brexit? Lots of runners reporting GPS tracking is wildly off since we left.

I find that exceedingly unlikely given GPS has absolutely nothing to do with the EU.

It's the butterfly effect. You see it in IT a lot. When you make a big change you are supposed to not just test the new functionality but also do something called regression testing to make sure that other ostensibly unrelated things are not fucked up. But it's not the glamour end of the business - to put it mildly - and so is invariably skimped. The upshot is that in the days and weeks following implementation you often find some surprising things going wrong. Things that used to work just fine now do not.

I imagine that's what has happened here with Brexit and GPS. Another casualty of Johnson's trademark slapdashery.

Given GPS is American what will Brexit have changed?

I find it incredibly hard to believe.

I suspect final analysis will prove that this is not the Butterfly Effect (properly a property of chaotic systems where tiny changes in inputs below the threshold of measurement may result in massive changes in outputs), but rather the Coincidence Effect, very well understood by those conducting vaccine trials.

It's horseshit. GPS is always inaccurate. My watch has GPS and Glonass (the Russian system) a few newer ones will have Galileo but it won't make much odds. Overcast weather is a much likelier culprit.

My iPhone GPS tracker on the Ordnance Survey App (GB and Parks) is remarkably accurate. Better than anything else I've ever used.

Actually I struggled to get a position using OSMAnd on my walk yesterday so @Flatlander might have a point. Today's 5k time trial ended slightly before I might have expected it to, but it was within normal error and I don't necessarily start at the same place or take the racing line all the way roud. Was my fastest 5k in over two years, as it turns out.

Phones *can* be much better in built up areas than GPS watches.

GPS only systems are vulnerable to multi pathing - reflection off buildings etc.

Phone navigation often uses Wifi signals, cell data etc to fill in for poor/non-existent GPS

Maybe in theory, you can generally tell if someone has used a GPS watch on Strava though - or a phone. The watches tend to be far more accurate in practise.

If it is a proper GPS system, yes. There are some interesting short cuts to make a cheap, lower power device.

I haven't managed to get GPS tracking to work properly on my phone since about Android 6. So have given up on it.

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

The Lib Dems need to work out what they're for. They died with their boots on opposing Brexit.

The LDs exist currently as a relatively fiscally conservative, socially liberal party for diehard Remainers or Unionists in Scotland.

With Labour now the party for social democrats, the Tories the party for Brexiteers and the SNP the party for Scottish nationalists there is not really much room for them to be much else

Don’t completely agree. a lot of people still don’t trust Labour, and the Tories are the party of the populist far right for the time being. Until the former really throw off the stigma of the Corbyn years and kick out the far left and the Tories eventually realise Johnson is a rudderless joke And replace him with someone competent then there are plenty of opportunities for the LDs. They will need to bide their time. Personally I think their fortunes will track Kier Starmer’s. If Starmer does well and Labour is no longer seen as a threat to moderates, the LDs will ale centrist seats as they did in 1997.

I agree the LDs best hope is still posh Remain areas that will still not vote Labour ie SW London, Wimbledon, Winchester, West Oxford, St Albans, Esher and Walton, Guildford, Wokingham, Cities of London and Westminster, Bath, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells etc

I think you may oversimplify things with everything being through the prism of Brexit. Brexit is now yesterday’s story. It is perhaps true that many moderate Tories tended to be in favour of remain, but I think there will also be moderate Tories who were indifferent about Brexit who might switch to LD if they feel it is time for a change. The hard right has its hands firmly in Johnson’s puppet strings and more moderate Tories don’t like it.

Yes, I agree with you for the first time in a while. Now that brexit is over the Tories need to rebuild their voter coalition that won them victories under Thatcher, Major and Cameron. If it looks like Boris can't put together the same winning coalition as 2019 then he's done. Without brexit or Labour walking into any stupid traps like pledging to renegotiate the deal it seems difficult to see how he can do that.

JohnLilburne said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

JohnLilburne said:

Mysticrose said:

JohnLilburne said:

TimT said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

RobD said:

Tres said:

Another benefit of Brexit? Lots of runners reporting GPS tracking is wildly off since we left.

I find that exceedingly unlikely given GPS has absolutely nothing to do with the EU.

It's the butterfly effect. You see it in IT a lot. When you make a big change you are supposed to not just test the new functionality but also do something called regression testing to make sure that other ostensibly unrelated things are not fucked up. But it's not the glamour end of the business - to put it mildly - and so is invariably skimped. The upshot is that in the days and weeks following implementation you often find some surprising things going wrong. Things that used to work just fine now do not.

I imagine that's what has happened here with Brexit and GPS. Another casualty of Johnson's trademark slapdashery.

Given GPS is American what will Brexit have changed?

I find it incredibly hard to believe.

I suspect final analysis will prove that this is not the Butterfly Effect (properly a property of chaotic systems where tiny changes in inputs below the threshold of measurement may result in massive changes in outputs), but rather the Coincidence Effect, very well understood by those conducting vaccine trials.

It's horseshit. GPS is always inaccurate. My watch has GPS and Glonass (the Russian system) a few newer ones will have Galileo but it won't make much odds. Overcast weather is a much likelier culprit.

My iPhone GPS tracker on the Ordnance Survey App (GB and Parks) is remarkably accurate. Better than anything else I've ever used.

Actually I struggled to get a position using OSMAnd on my walk yesterday so @Flatlander might have a point. Today's 5k time trial ended slightly before I might have expected it to, but it was within normal error and I don't necessarily start at the same place or take the racing line all the way roud. Was my fastest 5k in over two years, as it turns out.

Phones *can* be much better in built up areas than GPS watches.

GPS only systems are vulnerable to multi pathing - reflection off buildings etc.

Phone navigation often uses Wifi signals, cell data etc to fill in for poor/non-existent GPS

Maybe in theory, you can generally tell if someone has used a GPS watch on Strava though - or a phone. The watches tend to be far more accurate in practise.

If it is a proper GPS system, yes. There are some interesting short cuts to make a cheap, lower power device.

I haven't managed to get GPS tracking to work properly on my phone since about Android 6. So have given up on it.

Actually that's for "plotting a known route" ie what running watches do. For positioning it's generally OK.

Leon said:

another_richard said:

noneoftheabove said:

kle4 said:

noneoftheabove said:

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1345410866913673219

Wait, I thought it was congestion that was going to cripple trade?

Call absolute bullshit on a Romanian lorry driver actually staying in Romania to work...the money differential is enormous, that's why they spend months every year on the road away from home in the first place.

It is karma for all the bullshit bendy banana stories that Brexiters managed to get into the press for so long.

It is quite sweet to see Brexiteers expecting our relationship with the EU to be reported accurately and neutrally rather than sensationalised and exaggerated.

That's quite true, but people also need to be content to lose any moral high ground if they are to so happy about that.

Its not a question of high ground, its accepting reality. The press misreported on the EU because it sells and makes journalists careers (see the PM for one). It is hugely naive not to expect the same to happen with Brexit.

It is good that those who have benefited from fake news are now going to have to put up with it, not because its fair or moral that they should, but because it increases the chance that we might eventually agree to tackle it.

We've been putting up with it since the referendum.

With all the lies about imminent job losses and 'the crops are rotting in the fields'.

Actually those lies started before the referendum.

Who can forget "Brexit will mean the end of western political civilisation", from Donald Tusk?

Did he mention a timescale...😆

JohnLilburne said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

JohnLilburne said:

Mysticrose said:

JohnLilburne said:

TimT said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

RobD said:

Tres said:

Another benefit of Brexit? Lots of runners reporting GPS tracking is wildly off since we left.

I find that exceedingly unlikely given GPS has absolutely nothing to do with the EU.

It's the butterfly effect. You see it in IT a lot. When you make a big change you are supposed to not just test the new functionality but also do something called regression testing to make sure that other ostensibly unrelated things are not fucked up. But it's not the glamour end of the business - to put it mildly - and so is invariably skimped. The upshot is that in the days and weeks following implementation you often find some surprising things going wrong. Things that used to work just fine now do not.

I imagine that's what has happened here with Brexit and GPS. Another casualty of Johnson's trademark slapdashery.

Given GPS is American what will Brexit have changed?

I find it incredibly hard to believe.

I suspect final analysis will prove that this is not the Butterfly Effect (properly a property of chaotic systems where tiny changes in inputs below the threshold of measurement may result in massive changes in outputs), but rather the Coincidence Effect, very well understood by those conducting vaccine trials.

It's horseshit. GPS is always inaccurate. My watch has GPS and Glonass (the Russian system) a few newer ones will have Galileo but it won't make much odds. Overcast weather is a much likelier culprit.

My iPhone GPS tracker on the Ordnance Survey App (GB and Parks) is remarkably accurate. Better than anything else I've ever used.

Actually I struggled to get a position using OSMAnd on my walk yesterday so @Flatlander might have a point. Today's 5k time trial ended slightly before I might have expected it to, but it was within normal error and I don't necessarily start at the same place or take the racing line all the way roud. Was my fastest 5k in over two years, as it turns out.

Phones *can* be much better in built up areas than GPS watches.

GPS only systems are vulnerable to multi pathing - reflection off buildings etc.

Phone navigation often uses Wifi signals, cell data etc to fill in for poor/non-existent GPS

Maybe in theory, you can generally tell if someone has used a GPS watch on Strava though - or a phone. The watches tend to be far more accurate in practise.

If it is a proper GPS system, yes. There are some interesting short cuts to make a cheap, lower power device.

I haven't managed to get GPS tracking to work properly on my phone since about Android 6. So have given up on it.

I remember the joys of WinMobile 6 and GPS on an HTC phone. There were around 400 badly labelled settings. Spending a Sunday afternoon upgrading your phone with a custom cook of the OS, in a vain attempt to improve things....

When people wondered why iPhones took the profitable chunk of the phone market - well, it was things like on the first iPhone, you fired up Maps. And there you were... As opposed to fiddling around until you gave up....

malcolmg said:

JohnLilburne said:

Foxy said:

MattW said:

Foxy said:

Omnium said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

NHS requiring your inside leg measurement and wang length before being allowed to be consideered for.volunteering to help with vaccination drive has finally been picked up by BBC..

BBC News - Coronavirus: Medics complain of 'bureaucracy' in bid to join Covid vaccine effort
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55516277

'Some medics have been asked for proof they are trained in areas such as preventing radicalisation.'

Insane. They are going to see each person for what, five minutes?

Can't be too.careful....ISIS recruiters might use the queues as an opportunity to get some.new recruits...especially among all those OAPs currently getting vaccinated.

As I pointed out at Breakfast: it is this government that made Prevent Training compulsory, and withdrew prescribing rights for retired doctors, by establishing the rules for Revalidation and License to practice in 2012.

Its almost as if they are a bunch of turnip heads...

So Random capitilisation is the source of iSIs radicalism?

Edit: Sorry I was being mean here. It was unfair.

Prevent Training is correctly capitalised, as it is a Proper Noun, as are Revalidation and Licence. I will concede on Breakfast 🙄

The staff canteen at my local District Hospital is the only one in the place that serves traditional Full English breakfasts

Admittedly it was 30 years ago, but I used to work in a hospital where all the patients in the cardiac ward got a Full English each morning.

Actually, breakfast is by far the best meal in any hospital canteen. Like traditional boiled sponge puddings, it is one thing that mass scale cooking is better at than small scale.

I had a portly friend whose wife put him on a diet, who used to get in early for a hospital Full English each morning. In his view it was the height of bad manners to lose weight faster than his wife...

I used to work at a hospital that had an ambulance station attached. Did a good Full English, which I would normally avoid but often had a black pudding sandwich for a morning snack when they were selling off the breakfast items. The hospital was desperate to get them to sell healthy items but the ambulance crews would have none of it, they wanted a proper breakfast when coming off the night shift. As I am now low carb, I am in the happy position of regarding a Full English as being a healthy meal as long as it doesn't come with beans or toast.

John , you must have toast and beans for it to be real.

Don’t reopen the bean wars, please.

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

The Lib Dems need to work out what they're for. They died with their boots on opposing Brexit.

The LDs exist currently as a relatively fiscally conservative, socially liberal party for diehard Remainers or Unionists in Scotland.

With Labour now the party for social democrats, the Tories the party for Brexiteers and the SNP the party for Scottish nationalists there is not really much room for them to be much else

Don’t completely agree. a lot of people still don’t trust Labour, and the Tories are the party of the populist far right for the time being. Until the former really throw off the stigma of the Corbyn years and kick out the far left and the Tories eventually realise Johnson is a rudderless joke And replace him with someone competent then there are plenty of opportunities for the LDs. They will need to bide their time. Personally I think their fortunes will track Kier Starmer’s. If Starmer does well and Labour is no longer seen as a threat to moderates, the LDs will ale centrist seats as they did in 1997.

I agree the LDs best hope is still posh Remain areas that will still not vote Labour ie SW London, Wimbledon, Winchester, West Oxford, St Albans, Esher and Walton, Guildford, Wokingham, Cities of London and Westminster, Bath, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells etc

I think you may oversimplify things with everything being through the prism of Brexit. Brexit is now yesterday’s story. It is perhaps true that many moderate Tories tended to be in favour of remain, but I think there will also be moderate Tories who were indifferent about Brexit who might switch to LD if they feel it is time for a change. The hard right has its hands firmly in Johnson’s puppet strings and more moderate Tories don’t like it.

They might have done if No Deal, now we have a trade deal with the EU moderate Tories will stick with Boris.

So LDs best shot remains diehard Remainers who think the deal goes too far by leaving the SM and CU and Starmer went too far by voting for it.

Foxy said:

Leon said:

another_richard said:

noneoftheabove said:

kle4 said:

noneoftheabove said:

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1345410866913673219

Wait, I thought it was congestion that was going to cripple trade?

Call absolute bullshit on a Romanian lorry driver actually staying in Romania to work...the money differential is enormous, that's why they spend months every year on the road away from home in the first place.

It is karma for all the bullshit bendy banana stories that Brexiters managed to get into the press for so long.

It is quite sweet to see Brexiteers expecting our relationship with the EU to be reported accurately and neutrally rather than sensationalised and exaggerated.

That's quite true, but people also need to be content to lose any moral high ground if they are to so happy about that.

Its not a question of high ground, its accepting reality. The press misreported on the EU because it sells and makes journalists careers (see the PM for one). It is hugely naive not to expect the same to happen with Brexit.

It is good that those who have benefited from fake news are now going to have to put up with it, not because its fair or moral that they should, but because it increases the chance that we might eventually agree to tackle it.

We've been putting up with it since the referendum.

With all the lies about imminent job losses and 'the crops are rotting in the fields'.

Actually those lies started before the referendum.

Who can forget "Brexit will mean the end of western political civilisation", from Donald Tusk?

Did he mention a timescale...😆

The weird thing is, his prediction might come true, but not because of Brexit - because of Covid.

It occurred to me today that we are just one random, nasty mutation away from something utterly apocalyptic, something that will make everything we have seen so far look like a rainy picnic in The Regent's Park

The virus is rampaging around Europe, LatAm, and in the USA. It is getting millions of chances to mutate. Most mutations will be insignificant, or deleterious to its virality, but just one might turn it into something akin to Avian Flu, which has a 60% lethality rate.

It is possible that in the next 3 months, before the vaccines squash this fucker, that we will be faced with a new Black Death.

It's being so hopeful as what keeps me cheery

Nigel_Foremain said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

CNN: 2021 could see Britain ripped to pieces

It's not hard to see why the SNP's platform - leaving the UK and re-joining the EU under the leadership of Sturgeon - is so appealing to many north of the border. Conservatives in England are seriously worried that Johnson doesn't have either the energy or passion needed to combat it.

"There is genuine fear that Scotland could go under this government and that there is no energy going into addressing that," says one MP on the government's payroll. "We've struggled to make an emotional case for the Union. Partly that's because our focus is on our heartlands in England, but we are going to need to make a positive case beyond the economic benefits to Scotland."

Also, the more now Britain shifts from the EU, the more in common Northern Ireland has with the EU, and thus the Republic of Ireland," says Katy Hayward, professor of political sociology at Queen's University Belfast. The issue of the north becoming closer to the Republic has put a spring in the step of those who dream of reunification.

"Soft-nationalists who were pro-European -- and even some soft-Unionists -- have been forced to seriously rethink what Northern Ireland is and should be," says Matthew O'Toole, a Northern Irish lawmaker for the pro-reunification Social Democratic and Labour Party.

Since Johnson faces the prospect of fighting in Scotland and Northern Ireland, he risks overlooking Wales. "Covid has highlighted what devolution actually means, in terms of Welsh politicians being able to make independent policy that directly affects Welsh people," says Roger Awan-Scully, professor of politics at Cardiff University. “If Conservatives take a more aggressive line against devolution and pro-centralised control from London, it risks emboldening the anti-Westminster movement in Wales”.

If Johnson is unable to make leaving the EU look like a success and he alienates the public in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, it's inevitable that more and more voters will wonder if the grass is greener outside of the United Kingdom.

Another piece of journalism from the US where the wish is father to the thought......

Plenty of anti indy pieces form outside Scotland (ie England) where the wish is father to the thought. Fortunately the puir, wee bastirt is increasingly fatherless in Scotland.

Plenty of pro “Indy” from RT though perhaps? How useful are you to Putin would you say? Brexiteers and Scottish Nationalists: peas in the pod of Putins grand scheme to gull the most gullible.

Brexit was win-win for Putin as it weakened both the UK and the EU. Scottish independence would add to the EU while weakening the UK, but either way it's rather insignificant in the grander scheme of things. If Putin cares at all, he might well prefer not to strengthen the EU.

Flatlander said:

kinabalu said:

Flatlander said:

kinabalu said:

RobD said:

Tres said:

Another benefit of Brexit? Lots of runners reporting GPS tracking is wildly off since we left.

I find that exceedingly unlikely given GPS has absolutely nothing to do with the EU.

It's the butterfly effect. You see it in IT a lot. When you make a big change you are supposed to not just test the new functionality but also do something called regression testing to make sure that other ostensibly unrelated things are not fucked up. But it's not the glamour end of the business - to put it mildly - and so is invariably skimped. The upshot is that in the days and weeks following implementation you often find some surprising things going wrong. Things that used to work just fine now do not.

I imagine that's what has happened here with Brexit and GPS. Another casualty of Johnson's trademark slapdashery.

Yes, GPS devices have gone slightly wrong all over the planet because of Brexit. That seems likely.

Or perhaps Garmin just need to make sure that their published satellite almanac is up to date.

You see this in IT a lot. You make one small change and then get lots of complaints that your change caused problems, whereas in fact 99% of the complaints are user error or completely unrelated.

Yes that happens too. Fair point. It could be that or it could be what I suggest. Let's track it and see.

via Garmin:

"UPDATED 1/2/2021:

Please be aware that we are aware of the serious GPS issue that 2021 has brought upon the Fenix 6 series watches and we are investigating reports. The issue seems to be impacting not only Garmin but some of our competitors too.

On your watch, if you go to System > About and CPE shows Expired, please give 5 full minutes outdoors with no movement before every Outdoor activity. This is a workaround while our engineers get the issue resolved.

We hope to have this issue resolved as quickly as possible and this issue is our #1 highest priority."


CPE = Satellite almanac

Nothing to do with Brexit then in this case. Good news. There will be some unpredictable consequences, though, as well as the ones we are braced for.

williamglenn said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

The Sun have got dick pix.

Or, it could just be bollocks, who knows?

Either way you wouldn’t want the Sun getting their hands on it.

A philosophical question for the ages: would the Sun having pics of your bollocks be less damaging than a dick pic?

Pulpstar said:

When the devil finished
Johnny said, "well, you're pretty good, ol' son
But sit down in that chair right there
And let me show you how it's done."

Pulp, yours truly posted full version on PB late (your time) last night.

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?

Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?

Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.

On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.

Can I also point out - for those who think it is impossible to manage a mass vaccination scheme - that in the last 12 days, Israel has managed to get first shots into more than 10% of their population.

That's close to 1% of the population every day.

Yes, that's a good rate but don't forget that to keep it going they effectively need to double it from day 22 onwards or the rate of bringing people into the vaccine funnel drops to a trickle. Either that or work in batches which seems inefficient.

FPT (I'm playing catchup...):

It's not *that* bad.

Even if you assume that Israel's vaccination system tops out at 1% of the population getting jabs every day (i.e. pretty much the current rate), that still means that more than a quarter of all adults get their first dose by day 21. Then by day 42, the second quartile of the Israeli public starts getting it, and by day 63, one quarter have had two jabs, and another quarter a single jab. By the end of February, then, half the Israeli population will have had at least one jab, with the most vulnerable having had two.

I'd be pretty happy if that was going to be the situation in the UK.

JohnLilburne said:

I used to work at a hospital that had an ambulance station attached. Did a good Full English, which I would normally avoid but often had a black pudding sandwich for a morning snack when they were selling off the breakfast items. The hospital was desperate to get them to sell healthy items but the ambulance crews would have none of it, they wanted a proper breakfast when coming off the night shift. As I am now low carb, I am in the happy position of regarding a Full English as being a healthy meal as long as it doesn't come with beans or toast.

There were complaints when the canteen of Ninewells Hospital in Dundee wanted to withdraw this.

Unless you are lost, why does anyone need to use GPS?

SandyRentool said:

Unless you are lost, why does anyone need to use GPS?

Paper maps are preferable IMO. You get a better overview of where you are. Not sure why, but you also tend to learn more about your surroundings using paper maps than with a computerised system.

Nigelb said:

malcolmg said:

JohnLilburne said:

Foxy said:

MattW said:

Foxy said:

Omnium said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

NHS requiring your inside leg measurement and wang length before being allowed to be consideered for.volunteering to help with vaccination drive has finally been picked up by BBC..

BBC News - Coronavirus: Medics complain of 'bureaucracy' in bid to join Covid vaccine effort
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55516277

'Some medics have been asked for proof they are trained in areas such as preventing radicalisation.'

Insane. They are going to see each person for what, five minutes?

Can't be too.careful....ISIS recruiters might use the queues as an opportunity to get some.new recruits...especially among all those OAPs currently getting vaccinated.

As I pointed out at Breakfast: it is this government that made Prevent Training compulsory, and withdrew prescribing rights for retired doctors, by establishing the rules for Revalidation and License to practice in 2012.

Its almost as if they are a bunch of turnip heads...

So Random capitilisation is the source of iSIs radicalism?

Edit: Sorry I was being mean here. It was unfair.

Prevent Training is correctly capitalised, as it is a Proper Noun, as are Revalidation and Licence. I will concede on Breakfast 🙄

The staff canteen at my local District Hospital is the only one in the place that serves traditional Full English breakfasts

Admittedly it was 30 years ago, but I used to work in a hospital where all the patients in the cardiac ward got a Full English each morning.

Actually, breakfast is by far the best meal in any hospital canteen. Like traditional boiled sponge puddings, it is one thing that mass scale cooking is better at than small scale.

I had a portly friend whose wife put him on a diet, who used to get in early for a hospital Full English each morning. In his view it was the height of bad manners to lose weight faster than his wife...

I used to work at a hospital that had an ambulance station attached. Did a good Full English, which I would normally avoid but often had a black pudding sandwich for a morning snack when they were selling off the breakfast items. The hospital was desperate to get them to sell healthy items but the ambulance crews would have none of it, they wanted a proper breakfast when coming off the night shift. As I am now low carb, I am in the happy position of regarding a Full English as being a healthy meal as long as it doesn't come with beans or toast.

John , you must have toast and beans for it to be real.

Don’t reopen the bean wars, please.

Nigel my wife has ordered me one of these, luckily she did not see the grumpy one till after she had ordered.

Foxy said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Leon said:

another_richard said:

noneoftheabove said:

kle4 said:

noneoftheabove said:

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1345410866913673219

Wait, I thought it was congestion that was going to cripple trade?

Call absolute bullshit on a Romanian lorry driver actually staying in Romania to work...the money differential is enormous, that's why they spend months every year on the road away from home in the first place.

It is karma for all the bullshit bendy banana stories that Brexiters managed to get into the press for so long.

It is quite sweet to see Brexiteers expecting our relationship with the EU to be reported accurately and neutrally rather than sensationalised and exaggerated.

That's quite true, but people also need to be content to lose any moral high ground if they are to so happy about that.

Its not a question of high ground, its accepting reality. The press misreported on the EU because it sells and makes journalists careers (see the PM for one). It is hugely naive not to expect the same to happen with Brexit.

It is good that those who have benefited from fake news are now going to have to put up with it, not because its fair or moral that they should, but because it increases the chance that we might eventually agree to tackle it.

We've been putting up with it since the referendum.

With all the lies about imminent job losses and 'the crops are rotting in the fields'.

Actually those lies started before the referendum.

Who can forget "Brexit will mean the end of western political civilisation", from Donald Tusk?

Did he mention a timescale...😆

The weird thing is, his prediction might come true, but not because of Brexit - because of Covid.

It occurred to me today that we are just one random, nasty mutation away from something utterly apocalyptic, something that will make everything we have seen so far look like a rainy picnic in The Regent's Park

The virus is rampaging around Europe, LatAm, and in the USA. It is getting millions of chances to mutate. Most mutations will be insignificant, or deleterious to its virality, but just one might turn it into something akin to Avian Flu, which has a 60% lethality rate.

It is possible that in the next 3 months, before the vaccines squash this fucker, that we will be faced with a new Black Death.

It's being so hopeful as what keeps me cheery

I suspect it is more likely that we reach herd immunity by a combination of vaccine and infection.

Mind you the South African variety is a bit more worrying, as it has mutations on both arms of the spike protein. Even so, there is probably some cross immunity.

Yes, of course, that outcome is far more likely. But - it seems to me - there is now a non-trivial chance that we will see something more like a new Black Death, or at least a Great Plague, if just one mutation does not go our way.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1345454616318791681?s=19

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

On topic I honestly don't think Trump cares two hoots about the GOP or the Georgia elections. He never did care for the GOP except as a vehicle to get him into and keep him in power and now that that has failed I think he will gladly see it crash and burn.

WHY would the Donald Trumpsky we know and do NOT love, want for somebody - anybody - else to do BETTER than he did?

He LOST Georgia, a fact that his post-ED antics have highlighted. In his hear of hearts (a VERY cold & dark place) he wants both Loeffler & Perdue to also bite the Big Weenie.

Perdue got 49.7% in Georgia in November to Trump's 49.3%, he may not get his wish, at least as far as Perdue is concerned

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?

Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?

Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.

On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.

Can I also point out - for those who think it is impossible to manage a mass vaccination scheme - that in the last 12 days, Israel has managed to get first shots into more than 10% of their population.

That's close to 1% of the population every day.

Yes, that's a good rate but don't forget that to keep it going they effectively need to double it from day 22 onwards or the rate of bringing people into the vaccine funnel drops to a trickle. Either that or work in batches which seems inefficient.

FPT (I'm playing catchup...):

It's not *that* bad.

Even if you assume that Israel's vaccination system tops out at 1% of the population getting jabs every day (i.e. pretty much the current rate), that still means that more than a quarter of all adults get their first dose by day 21. Then by day 42, the second quartile of the Israeli public starts getting it, and by day 63, one quarter have had two jabs, and another quarter a single jab. By the end of February, then, half the Israeli population will have had at least one jab, with the most vulnerable having had two.

I'd be pretty happy if that was going to be the situation in the UK.

Yes, I absolutely agree, if we were in that situation by mid Feb it would be a miracle.

I wrote out what my central scenario is, essentially I expect 30m to get their first jabs done by the beginning of April then 2m first jabs per week plus 3m second jabs per week from then until the end of the list, overall we're looking at 12-15 weeks of very, very tough national restrictions equivalent to tier 5 or tier 6 with schools and universities closed, maybe finally closing the airports. Moving down to the current tier 3/4 restrictions until the middle of May at least as the most vulnerable are all jabbed a second time in that 3 week period and then another 3 weeks for it to take effect. After that I think it will be a mix of tier 1-3 until the end of June, then everywhere will be in tier one as basically all eligible people will have had their first jab. Another 6 weeks later all restrictions are removed and we have the old normal back regardless of what the scientists think about keeping social distancing and mask wearing indefinitely to guard against localised outbreaks.

Leon said:

Gaussian said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

CNN: 2021 could see Britain ripped to pieces

It's not hard to see why the SNP's platform - leaving the UK and re-joining the EU under the leadership of Sturgeon - is so appealing to many north of the border. Conservatives in England are seriously worried that Johnson doesn't have either the energy or passion needed to combat it.

"There is genuine fear that Scotland could go under this government and that there is no energy going into addressing that," says one MP on the government's payroll. "We've struggled to make an emotional case for the Union. Partly that's because our focus is on our heartlands in England, but we are going to need to make a positive case beyond the economic benefits to Scotland."

Also, the more now Britain shifts from the EU, the more in common Northern Ireland has with the EU, and thus the Republic of Ireland," says Katy Hayward, professor of political sociology at Queen's University Belfast. The issue of the north becoming closer to the Republic has put a spring in the step of those who dream of reunification.

"Soft-nationalists who were pro-European -- and even some soft-Unionists -- have been forced to seriously rethink what Northern Ireland is and should be," says Matthew O'Toole, a Northern Irish lawmaker for the pro-reunification Social Democratic and Labour Party.

Since Johnson faces the prospect of fighting in Scotland and Northern Ireland, he risks overlooking Wales. "Covid has highlighted what devolution actually means, in terms of Welsh politicians being able to make independent policy that directly affects Welsh people," says Roger Awan-Scully, professor of politics at Cardiff University. “If Conservatives take a more aggressive line against devolution and pro-centralised control from London, it risks emboldening the anti-Westminster movement in Wales”.

If Johnson is unable to make leaving the EU look like a success and he alienates the public in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, it's inevitable that more and more voters will wonder if the grass is greener outside of the United Kingdom.

Another piece of journalism from the US where the wish is father to the thought......

Plenty of anti indy pieces form outside Scotland (ie England) where the wish is father to the thought. Fortunately the puir, wee bastirt is increasingly fatherless in Scotland.

Plenty of pro “Indy” from RT though perhaps? How useful are you to Putin would you say? Brexiteers and Scottish Nationalists: peas in the pod of Putins grand scheme to gull the most gullible.

Brexit was win-win for Putin as it weakened both the UK and the EU. Scottish independence would add to the EU while weakening the UK, but either way it's rather insignificant in the grander scheme of things. If Putin cares at all, he might well prefer not to strengthen the EU.

In the next few decades we will see political unification in the Anglosphere, and the wider West

China is becoming aggressive, and imperialist, for the first time in its history. It has always been puissant, and enormous, but was formerly content with flattery and obeisance. Now it expands, and it is bellicose.

The west will have to unite to counter it. I expect formal military and quasi-political union within the Five Eyes countries, of some sort. And the EU will be alongside.

Which side will Russia be on?

rcs1000 said:

It is also worth remembering that in 2017, the LDs got just 7.4% of the vote vs 42.4% for the Conservatives, and ended up with 12 seats. So, that's a 35 point lead for the Conservatives.

On these numbers the LDs get 8.7% and the Conservatives 35.6%. The Conservative lead, therefore, is 28 points.

I find it hard to believe that the LDs would end up with 85% fewer seats, when the LD-Conservative "spread" has actually shrunk by a quarter since 2017.

Where I think this polling is "wrong", is that while 25% of 2019 LDs might vote Labour in the next General Election, it won't be uniform. I can't see the Labour Party going from 8% to close to 30% in Twickenham, for example.

Indeed, Robert.

When I was an activist, we knew that between elections the LD vote was very soft - local elections notwithstanding but these were on much lower turnouts than a GE and we saw a degree of vote "splitting", Conservatives prepared to support the local LD Councillor at a local election.

The local elections therefore obscured the truth - on a 40-45% turnout with vote splitting, the LDs could perform very well. However, canvassing for those elections showed the weakness - those who had supported us at the previous election were now "Don't Know" or "Anti" and on those figures we'd have lost the seat at a GE.

As the GE campaigned approached and began, we had to go out to form up the vote again and it was a close0run thing on more than one occasion. The LDs in their seats will know this and will campaign accordingly.

I have absolutely no idea how a 2024 GE will go at this time - anyone who is confident about the outcome at this time is a fool.

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1345457304037154816?s=20

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

Case numbers on the 29th by specimen date look horrific. Where are those chumps claiming that the scientists and government made up the mutation and it's actually just Christmas shoppers?

Am I right in thinking these numbers will get worse one the impacts of the Christmas Hall Pass kick in?

Yes, and with the new strain having a much higher base R value there's no kind of lockdown that is going to work to bring that down. The only way to beat this now is to jab more people than can be infected.

On that note The Times had some good news from AZ that they are set to deliver 2m doses per week from the w/c 18th January. From what I know of the Pfizer delivery schedule we should be getting 1-1.5m per week of that too. Now it really is all on the government and NHS to jab faster than the virus spreads.

Can I also point out - for those who think it is impossible to manage a mass vaccination scheme - that in the last 12 days, Israel has managed to get first shots into more than 10% of their population.

That's close to 1% of the population every day.

Yes, that's a good rate but don't forget that to keep it going they effectively need to double it from day 22 onwards or the rate of bringing people into the vaccine funnel drops to a trickle. Either that or work in batches which seems inefficient.

FPT (I'm playing catchup...):

It's not *that* bad.

Even if you assume that Israel's vaccination system tops out at 1% of the population getting jabs every day (i.e. pretty much the current rate), that still means that more than a quarter of all adults get their first dose by day 21. Then by day 42, the second quartile of the Israeli public starts getting it, and by day 63, one quarter have had two jabs, and another quarter a single jab. By the end of February, then, half the Israeli population will have had at least one jab, with the most vulnerable having had two.

I'd be pretty happy if that was going to be the situation in the UK.

Yes, I absolutely agree, if we were in that situation by mid Feb it would be a miracle.

I wrote out what my central scenario is, essentially I expect 30m to get their first jabs done by the beginning of April then 2m first jabs per week plus 3m second jabs per week from then until the end of the list, overall we're looking at 12-15 weeks of very, very tough national restrictions equivalent to tier 5 or tier 6 with schools and universities closed, maybe finally closing the airports. Moving down to the current tier 3/4 restrictions until the middle of May at least as the most vulnerable are all jabbed a second time in that 3 week period and then another 3 weeks for it to take effect. After that I think it will be a mix of tier 1-3 until the end of June, then everywhere will be in tier one as basically all eligible people will have had their first jab. Another 6 weeks later all restrictions are removed and we have the old normal back regardless of what the scientists think about keeping social distancing and mask wearing indefinitely to guard against localised outbreaks.

This is so depressing.

SandyRentool said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SandyRentool said:

Unless you are lost, why does anyone need to use GPS?

You obviously don't use Waze then....

Only when I don't know how to get to where I'm going. Which is another way of saying 'lost'.

You are missing out on a key feature then.....it monitors traffic on your route, alerts you of delays well ahead of you and automatically provides the fastest route around it. I find it invaluable, especially in towns / cities, even if I know them well, you don't have time to stop, look at where the delay is and consider how best to avoid it.

No other app / system comes close to how good Waze is at this.

Theuniondivvie said:

malcolmg said:

Theuniondivvie said:

JohnLilburne said:

I used to work at a hospital that had an ambulance station attached. Did a good Full English, which I would normally avoid but often had a black pudding sandwich for a morning snack when they were selling off the breakfast items. The hospital was desperate to get them to sell healthy items but the ambulance crews would have none of it, they wanted a proper breakfast when coming off the night shift. As I am now low carb, I am in the happy position of regarding a Full English as being a healthy meal as long as it doesn't come with beans or toast.

There were complaints when the canteen of Ninewells Hospital in Dundee wanted to withdraw this.

That looks like a fine pie.

In my drinking days I’d certainly not have turned my nose up at it of a Saturday morning.

I think I might have turned my guts up confronted with that the morning after a heavy night!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Build a wall around London and the South NOW!

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1345459896335085572

The South West actually has the lowest case rate in England on those figures, so the South stops at Dorset

I don't think I could bring myself to back Cruz for the nomination and I have backed complete piece of shit Tom Cotton.

MaxPB said:

Yes, I absolutely agree, if we were in that situation by mid Feb it would be a miracle.

I wrote out what my central scenario is, essentially I expect 30m to get their first jabs done by the beginning of April then 2m first jabs per week plus 3m second jabs per week from then until the end of the list, overall we're looking at 12-15 weeks of very, very tough national restrictions equivalent to tier 5 or tier 6 with schools and universities closed, maybe finally closing the airports. Moving down to the current tier 3/4 restrictions until the middle of May at least as the most vulnerable are all jabbed a second time in that 3 week period and then another 3 weeks for it to take effect. After that I think it will be a mix of tier 1-3 until the end of June, then everywhere will be in tier one as basically all eligible people will have had their first jab. Another 6 weeks later all restrictions are removed and we have the old normal back regardless of what the scientists think about keeping social distancing and mask wearing indefinitely to guard against localised outbreaks.

I believe the term is "inoculation" - not "jab" but that's me being old-fashioned and stubborn on a Saturday night.

I don't disagree with much of the substantive - I'd be keeping an eye or two on the winter weather. If we were to get a 14-day spell of severe winter weather, the numbers inoculated would fall as I suspect, for all the benefits inoculation would bring, getting caught in a snow drift or breaking a limb falling on ice would be an unwelcome side-effect.

I'm still to be convinced inoculating 3 million people per week is feasible though I accept it's desirable. I presume we'll be relying on GP records or National Insurance numbers to track down the individuals in each tranche of inoculation. It's not a free-for-all turn up, line up (socially distanced), get inoculated and go. There will need to be an audit trail of who is being inoculated, when and where with a record to evidence to your employer, travel agent or cruise ship company you have had the vaccine.

We have no sense of how many will refuse (20%?) the vaccination or how many will be missed. I do agree it's less likely the very elderly and vulnerable will be missed but, and let's be upfront about it, there are people in this country who live below the radar, function on cash and try to avoid the authorities for whatever reason. How will they be inoculated? Presumably, they won't.

I've also said before and I'm happy to repeat - we need to instigate a mental health recovery programme as comprehensive and resourced as any vaccination programme. Restoring mental health needs to be recognised with the same priority as restoring physical health.

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Build a wall around London and the South NOW!

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1345459896335085572

The South West actually has the lowest case rate in England on those figures, so the South stops at Dorset

Can't take the risk.

We need to seal off London and the entirety of the South.

Southerners are soft and lawbreakers.