I used to work at a hospital that had an ambulance station attached. Did a good Full English, which I would normally avoid but often had a black pudding sandwich for a morning snack when they were selling off the breakfast items. The hospital was desperate to get them to sell healthy items but the ambulance crews would have none of it, they wanted a proper breakfast when coming off the night shift. As I am now low carb, I am in the happy position of regarding a Full English as being a healthy meal as long as it doesn't come with beans or toast.
There were complaints when the canteen of Ninewells Hospital in Dundee wanted to withdraw this.
That looks like a fine pie.
It does. Is that what is known as a "Scottish breakfast pie". Another variety of these:
I knew someone who worked for the BBC in 2008 who told me nearly everyone working there was shocked when Boris Johnson was elected mayor of London because they "didn't know anyone" who supported him. That was nearly 13 years ago.
It's not hard to see why the SNP's platform - leaving the UK and re-joining the EU under the leadership of Sturgeon - is so appealing to many north of the border. Conservatives in England are seriously worried that Johnson doesn't have either the energy or passion needed to combat it.
"There is genuine fear that Scotland could go under this government and that there is no energy going into addressing that," says one MP on the government's payroll. "We've struggled to make an emotional case for the Union. Partly that's because our focus is on our heartlands in England, but we are going to need to make a positive case beyond the economic benefits to Scotland."
Also, the more now Britain shifts from the EU, the more in common Northern Ireland has with the EU, and thus the Republic of Ireland," says Katy Hayward, professor of political sociology at Queen's University Belfast. The issue of the north becoming closer to the Republic has put a spring in the step of those who dream of reunification.
"Soft-nationalists who were pro-European -- and even some soft-Unionists -- have been forced to seriously rethink what Northern Ireland is and should be," says Matthew O'Toole, a Northern Irish lawmaker for the pro-reunification Social Democratic and Labour Party.
Since Johnson faces the prospect of fighting in Scotland and Northern Ireland, he risks overlooking Wales. "Covid has highlighted what devolution actually means, in terms of Welsh politicians being able to make independent policy that directly affects Welsh people," says Roger Awan-Scully, professor of politics at Cardiff University. “If Conservatives take a more aggressive line against devolution and pro-centralised control from London, it risks emboldening the anti-Westminster movement in Wales”.
If Johnson is unable to make leaving the EU look like a success and he alienates the public in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, it's inevitable that more and more voters will wonder if the grass is greener outside of the United Kingdom.
Another piece of journalism from the US where the wish is father to the thought......
Plenty of anti indy pieces form outside Scotland (ie England) where the wish is father to the thought. Fortunately the puir, wee bastirt is increasingly fatherless in Scotland.
Plenty of pro “Indy” from RT though perhaps? How useful are you to Putin would you say? Brexiteers and Scottish Nationalists: peas in the pod of Putins grand scheme to gull the most gullible.
Brexit was win-win for Putin as it weakened both the UK and the EU. Scottish independence would add to the EU while weakening the UK, but either way it's rather insignificant in the grander scheme of things. If Putin cares at all, he might well prefer not to strengthen the EU.
In the next few decades we will see political unification in the Anglosphere, and the wider West
China is becoming aggressive, and imperialist, for the first time in its history. It has always been puissant, and enormous, but was formerly content with flattery and obeisance. Now it expands, and it is bellicose.
The west will have to unite to counter it. I expect formal military and quasi-political union within the Five Eyes countries, of some sort. And the EU will be alongside.
Which side will Russia be on?
That's the thing, isn't it?
Russia's barren, empty Eastern quarter, stuffed full of natural resources, is just what China needs. A sort of Northern Resource Area, a part of the new North Asia Co-Prosperity sphere.
Maybe China makes a move to the North, and suddenly Russia wishes it had made more friends in the West.
I used to work at a hospital that had an ambulance station attached. Did a good Full English, which I would normally avoid but often had a black pudding sandwich for a morning snack when they were selling off the breakfast items. The hospital was desperate to get them to sell healthy items but the ambulance crews would have none of it, they wanted a proper breakfast when coming off the night shift. As I am now low carb, I am in the happy position of regarding a Full English as being a healthy meal as long as it doesn't come with beans or toast.
There were complaints when the canteen of Ninewells Hospital in Dundee wanted to withdraw this.
That looks like a fine pie.
I wouldn’t have identified it as any such thing, had you not told us.
With my son having a Williamson break for 2 weeks (yr 8) we're seriously considering doing the same with our daughter (yr 5). With Mrs RP a teaching assistant currently not working in advance of the move to Scotland next month, not sending them back at all is an option.
The South West actually has the lowest case rate in England on those figures, so the South stops at Dorset
Can't take the risk.
We need to seal off London and the entirety of the South.
Southerners are soft and lawbreakers.
You can make a logical argument to seal off London, the East and South East on those figures, you cannot include the South West however without another national lockdown.
It is further from London to Penzance for instance than it is from London to Manchester
The South West actually has the lowest case rate in England on those figures, so the South stops at Dorset
Can't take the risk.
We need to seal off London and the entirety of the South.
Southerners are soft and lawbreakers.
You can make a logical argument to seal off London, the East and South East on those figures, you cannot include the South West however without another national lockdown.
It is further from London to Penzance for instance than it is from London to Manchester
Irrelevant. Southerners are zombie plague spreaders, otherwise cockneys will try and escape to the North via the South West.
The South West actually has the lowest case rate in England on those figures, so the South stops at Dorset
Can't take the risk.
We need to seal off London and the entirety of the South.
Southerners are soft and lawbreakers.
You can make a logical argument to seal off London, the East and South East on those figures, you cannot include the South West however without another national lockdown.
It is further from London to Penzance for instance than it is from London to Manchester
I knew someone who worked for the BBC in 2008 who told me nearly everyone working there was shocked when Boris Johnson was elected mayor of London because they "didn't know anyone" who supported him. That was nearly 13 years ago.
Its lucky they aren't a business...they have managed to piss off their existing big customers, the oldies, while trying and failing miserably to attract the new younger customer.
Yes, I absolutely agree, if we were in that situation by mid Feb it would be a miracle.
I wrote out what my central scenario is, essentially I expect 30m to get their first jabs done by the beginning of April then 2m first jabs per week plus 3m second jabs per week from then until the end of the list, overall we're looking at 12-15 weeks of very, very tough national restrictions equivalent to tier 5 or tier 6 with schools and universities closed, maybe finally closing the airports. Moving down to the current tier 3/4 restrictions until the middle of May at least as the most vulnerable are all jabbed a second time in that 3 week period and then another 3 weeks for it to take effect. After that I think it will be a mix of tier 1-3 until the end of June, then everywhere will be in tier one as basically all eligible people will have had their first jab. Another 6 weeks later all restrictions are removed and we have the old normal back regardless of what the scientists think about keeping social distancing and mask wearing indefinitely to guard against localised outbreaks.
I believe the term is "inoculation" - not "jab" but that's me being old-fashioned and stubborn on a Saturday night.
I don't disagree with much of the substantive - I'd be keeping an eye or two on the winter weather. If we were to get a 14-day spell of severe winter weather, the numbers inoculated would fall as I suspect, for all the benefits inoculation would bring, getting caught in a snow drift or breaking a limb falling on ice would be an unwelcome side-effect.
I'm still to be convinced inoculating 3 million people per week is feasible though I accept it's desirable. I presume we'll be relying on GP records or National Insurance numbers to track down the individuals in each tranche of inoculation. It's not a free-for-all turn up, line up (socially distanced), get inoculated and go. There will need to be an audit trail of who is being inoculated, when and where with a record to evidence to your employer, travel agent or cruise ship company you have had the vaccine.
We have no sense of how many will refuse (20%?) the vaccination or how many will be missed. I do agree it's less likely the very elderly and vulnerable will be missed but, and let's be upfront about it, there are people in this country who live below the radar, function on cash and try to avoid the authorities for whatever reason. How will they be inoculated? Presumably, they won't.
I've also said before and I'm happy to repeat - we need to instigate a mental health recovery programme as comprehensive and resourced as any vaccination programme. Restoring mental health needs to be recognised with the same priority as restoring physical health.
I think you worry too much about the details of how vaccinations are given, and not enough about supply of vaccine.
If we had a million doses a day to distribute (we don't), then you could simply have walk through systems at pharmacies, GPs, schools, stadiums, etc., where people come with their bus pass or passport or driving license, and queue and get their - ahem - inoculation.
You could simply say: Monday 13th, anyone born before 3/3/1952, Tuesday 14th, 1/8/1952, etc.
If some people don't get it, so what? The goal is to get as many people immunised as quickly as possible, and making sure the most vulnerable get it first.
I used to work at a hospital that had an ambulance station attached. Did a good Full English, which I would normally avoid but often had a black pudding sandwich for a morning snack when they were selling off the breakfast items. The hospital was desperate to get them to sell healthy items but the ambulance crews would have none of it, they wanted a proper breakfast when coming off the night shift. As I am now low carb, I am in the happy position of regarding a Full English as being a healthy meal as long as it doesn't come with beans or toast.
There were complaints when the canteen of Ninewells Hospital in Dundee wanted to withdraw this.
That looks like a fine pie.
In my drinking days I’d certainly not have turned my nose up at it of a Saturday morning.
I think I might have turned my guts up confronted with that the morning after a heavy night!
Isn't that the point? Cleanse the stomach (if not the palate) then find some actual food to eat.
Yes, I absolutely agree, if we were in that situation by mid Feb it would be a miracle.
I wrote out what my central scenario is, essentially I expect 30m to get their first jabs done by the beginning of April then 2m first jabs per week plus 3m second jabs per week from then until the end of the list, overall we're looking at 12-15 weeks of very, very tough national restrictions equivalent to tier 5 or tier 6 with schools and universities closed, maybe finally closing the airports. Moving down to the current tier 3/4 restrictions until the middle of May at least as the most vulnerable are all jabbed a second time in that 3 week period and then another 3 weeks for it to take effect. After that I think it will be a mix of tier 1-3 until the end of June, then everywhere will be in tier one as basically all eligible people will have had their first jab. Another 6 weeks later all restrictions are removed and we have the old normal back regardless of what the scientists think about keeping social distancing and mask wearing indefinitely to guard against localised outbreaks.
I believe the term is "inoculation" - not "jab" but that's me being old-fashioned and stubborn on a Saturday night.
I don't disagree with much of the substantive - I'd be keeping an eye or two on the winter weather. If we were to get a 14-day spell of severe winter weather, the numbers inoculated would fall as I suspect, for all the benefits inoculation would bring, getting caught in a snow drift or breaking a limb falling on ice would be an unwelcome side-effect.
I'm still to be convinced inoculating 3 million people per week is feasible though I accept it's desirable. I presume we'll be relying on GP records or National Insurance numbers to track down the individuals in each tranche of inoculation. It's not a free-for-all turn up, line up (socially distanced), get inoculated and go. There will need to be an audit trail of who is being inoculated, when and where with a record to evidence to your employer, travel agent or cruise ship company you have had the vaccine.
We have no sense of how many will refuse (20%?) the vaccination or how many will be missed. I do agree it's less likely the very elderly and vulnerable will be missed but, and let's be upfront about it, there are people in this country who live below the radar, function on cash and try to avoid the authorities for whatever reason. How will they be inoculated? Presumably, they won't.
I've also said before and I'm happy to repeat - we need to instigate a mental health recovery programme as comprehensive and resourced as any vaccination programme. Restoring mental health needs to be recognised with the same priority as restoring physical health.
According to the poll, the Liberal Democrats would crumble to just two seats in parliament, down from 11 won in the last general election.
A quarter of those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 say they would now vote Labour. The poll says the Lib Dems would cling on only to Bath, and Kingston and Surbiton, both by the tightest of margins. The party won 62 seats in 2005.
So either the Lib Dem’s are done - I actually think it’s possible they get wiped out next time - or perhaps mid-term polling is a waste of time.
I genuinely think they are done.
At the last election they were the only GB wide party with a polarised electorate, they were pitching for 48% of voters and they ballsed that up.
Even in my own seat, where Jared O'Mara had done so much to put off people voting Labour the Lib Dems failed, there's something really wrong. It's just not the impact of going into coalition with the Tories.
As a LD party member, I agree that at national level things look very bleak. In England the anti-Tory vote is consolidating with Labour. Bad for LDs, but probably worse for the Tories, as in target seats both LD and Green will vote tactically, in a way they would not for Corbyn.
And in marginal Tory/LD seats, pro-EU Tories will vote LD where they wouldn't last time because of Corbyn.
I'm surprised by the antipathy to Johnson and his cabinet by Tories here in Barnes including Tory members. They are spitting angry.
But that's part of why Boris isn't going to be PM at the next election, he'll last out until he's PM for longer than Theresa May but ultimately he's already made too many mistakes this year and burned far too much political capital to ensure his own survival.
Boris brings precisely one thing to the table - he's a winner. If he looks like he's not going to win then there's little point to keeping him around. MPs looking at their own majorities in the middle of next year when the Tories are 5 points down on Labour will make their move. Boris has made too many enemies in the parliamentary party, very much like Theresa May did, just for reasons other than Brexit.
And even Tory MPs can simply see that he isn’t that good.
I knew someone who worked for the BBC in 2008 who told me nearly everyone working there was shocked when Boris Johnson was elected mayor of London because they "didn't know anyone" who supported him. That was nearly 13 years ago.
The BBC has many, many more right-leaning presenters and executives in key positions than even 13 years ago. Evan Davis, Nick Robinson, Andrew Neil ; all are former confirmed Tories ; Humphrys since retiring has moved to the Daily Mail ; Sarah Montagu is a friend of the Camerons ; the current DG is a former Tory councillor ; etc.
This is reflected in its tone on socio-economic issues, while cultural ones are a slightly different question.
According to the poll, the Liberal Democrats would crumble to just two seats in parliament, down from 11 won in the last general election.
A quarter of those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 say they would now vote Labour. The poll says the Lib Dems would cling on only to Bath, and Kingston and Surbiton, both by the tightest of margins. The party won 62 seats in 2005.
So either the Lib Dem’s are done - I actually think it’s possible they get wiped out next time - or perhaps mid-term polling is a waste of time.
I genuinely think they are done.
At the last election they were the only GB wide party with a polarised electorate, they were pitching for 48% of voters and they ballsed that up.
Even in my own seat, where Jared O'Mara had done so much to put off people voting Labour the Lib Dems failed, there's something really wrong. It's just not the impact of going into coalition with the Tories.
As a LD party member, I agree that at national level things look very bleak. In England the anti-Tory vote is consolidating with Labour. Bad for LDs, but probably worse for the Tories, as in target seats both LD and Green will vote tactically, in a way they would not for Corbyn.
And in marginal Tory/LD seats, pro-EU Tories will vote LD where they wouldn't last time because of Corbyn.
I'm surprised by the antipathy to Johnson and his cabinet by Tories here in Barnes including Tory members. They are spitting angry.
But that's part of why Boris isn't going to be PM at the next election, he'll last out until he's PM for longer than Theresa May but ultimately he's already made too many mistakes this year and burned far too much political capital to ensure his own survival.
Boris brings precisely one thing to the table - he's a winner. If he looks like he's not going to win then there's little point to keeping him around. MPs looking at their own majorities in the middle of next year when the Tories are 5 points down on Labour will make their move. Boris has made too many enemies in the parliamentary party, very much like Theresa May did, just for reasons other than Brexit.
And even Tory MPs can simply see that he isn’t that good.
Hardly, 48 new Tory MPs owe their seats won in 2019 to Boris
On topic I honestly don't think Trump cares two hoots about the GOP or the Georgia elections. He never did care for the GOP except as a vehicle to get him into and keep him in power and now that that has failed I think he will gladly see it crash and burn.
WHY would the Donald Trumpsky we know and do NOT love, want for somebody - anybody - else to do BETTER than he did?
He LOST Georgia, a fact that his post-ED antics have highlighted. In his hear of hearts (a VERY cold & dark place) he wants both Loeffler & Perdue to also bite the Big Weenie.
Perdue got 49.7% in Georgia in November to Trump's 49.3%, he may not get his wish, at least as far as Perdue is concerned
Losing in this context means losing the actual election. BIDEN won GA, Trump lost. With a miss being as good as a mile.
Now regardless of what he says, Trumpsky wants for both Perdue and Loeffler to join him in the losers circle.
Misery loves company - and a more miserable SOB than our 45th President is hard to imagine.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
Current official 7 day average for Manchester: 208.6.
But that's Dec 22-28.
Cases for Dec 22-24: 185+143+61 = 389 Cases for Dec 29-31: 327+265+198 = 790
So that's double already, yet the numbers for those days aren't even complete yet. And Christmas Day mixing and the Boxing Day sales haven't hit the numbers yet ...
Yes, I absolutely agree, if we were in that situation by mid Feb it would be a miracle.
I wrote out what my central scenario is, essentially I expect 30m to get their first jabs done by the beginning of April then 2m first jabs per week plus 3m second jabs per week from then until the end of the list, overall we're looking at 12-15 weeks of very, very tough national restrictions equivalent to tier 5 or tier 6 with schools and universities closed, maybe finally closing the airports. Moving down to the current tier 3/4 restrictions until the middle of May at least as the most vulnerable are all jabbed a second time in that 3 week period and then another 3 weeks for it to take effect. After that I think it will be a mix of tier 1-3 until the end of June, then everywhere will be in tier one as basically all eligible people will have had their first jab. Another 6 weeks later all restrictions are removed and we have the old normal back regardless of what the scientists think about keeping social distancing and mask wearing indefinitely to guard against localised outbreaks.
I believe the term is "inoculation" - not "jab" but that's me being old-fashioned and stubborn on a Saturday night.
I don't disagree with much of the substantive - I'd be keeping an eye or two on the winter weather. If we were to get a 14-day spell of severe winter weather, the numbers inoculated would fall as I suspect, for all the benefits inoculation would bring, getting caught in a snow drift or breaking a limb falling on ice would be an unwelcome side-effect.
I'm still to be convinced inoculating 3 million people per week is feasible though I accept it's desirable. I presume we'll be relying on GP records or National Insurance numbers to track down the individuals in each tranche of inoculation. It's not a free-for-all turn up, line up (socially distanced), get inoculated and go. There will need to be an audit trail of who is being inoculated, when and where with a record to evidence to your employer, travel agent or cruise ship company you have had the vaccine.
We have no sense of how many will refuse (20%?) the vaccination or how many will be missed. I do agree it's less likely the very elderly and vulnerable will be missed but, and let's be upfront about it, there are people in this country who live below the radar, function on cash and try to avoid the authorities for whatever reason. How will they be inoculated? Presumably, they won't.
I've also said before and I'm happy to repeat - we need to instigate a mental health recovery programme as comprehensive and resourced as any vaccination programme. Restoring mental health needs to be recognised with the same priority as restoring physical health.
Vaccination, not inoculation. Inoculation means using live virus, not vaccine.
If the Dems hadn't held the House then this election would be ending in a coup and probable civil war.
Incredible.
Betfair would have been in trouble.
As is, the GOP senators and congressmen that are going to vote against certificatrion probably deserve to be executed by firing squad. They're lucky to live in a time when they don't get their just deserts - it's a complete abuse of their constitutional authority.
The South West actually has the lowest case rate in England on those figures, so the South stops at Dorset
Can't take the risk.
We need to seal off London and the entirety of the South.
Southerners are soft and lawbreakers.
You can make a logical argument to seal off London, the East and South East on those figures, you cannot include the South West however without another national lockdown.
It is further from London to Penzance for instance than it is from London to Manchester
That's because Manchester is in the South.
It is also 1 mile closer from London to Newcastle than it is from London to Penzance
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
It won't be a battle to rejoin, or at least not for decades, it will be a series of skirmishes on a series of points designed in each case to align us more closely with where we used to be.
I used to work at a hospital that had an ambulance station attached. Did a good Full English, which I would normally avoid but often had a black pudding sandwich for a morning snack when they were selling off the breakfast items. The hospital was desperate to get them to sell healthy items but the ambulance crews would have none of it, they wanted a proper breakfast when coming off the night shift. As I am now low carb, I am in the happy position of regarding a Full English as being a healthy meal as long as it doesn't come with beans or toast.
There were complaints when the canteen of Ninewells Hospital in Dundee wanted to withdraw this.
That looks like a fine pie.
It does. Is that what is known as a "Scottish breakfast pie". Another variety of these:
The South West actually has the lowest case rate in England on those figures, so the South stops at Dorset
Can't take the risk.
We need to seal off London and the entirety of the South.
Southerners are soft and lawbreakers.
You can make a logical argument to seal off London, the East and South East on those figures, you cannot include the South West however without another national lockdown.
It is further from London to Penzance for instance than it is from London to Manchester
That's because Manchester is in the South.
It is also 1 mile closer from London to Newcastle than it is from London to Penzance
Penzance can stay open but the rest of Cornwall gets bricked up.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
It won't be a battle to rejoin, or at least not for decades, it will be a series of skirmishes on a series of points designed in each case to align us more closely with where we used to be.
The question is what will the EU look like in thirty to forty years time.
Current official 7 day average for Manchester: 208.6.
But that's Dec 22-28.
Cases for Dec 22-24: 185+143+61 = 389 Cases for Dec 29-31: 327+265+198 = 790
So that's double already, yet the numbers for those days aren't even complete yet. And Christmas Day mixing and the Boxing Day sales haven't hit the numbers yet ...
On the March/April pattern, the deaths should by now already thus surely be far, far higher than we've seen.
Current official 7 day average for Manchester: 208.6.
But that's Dec 22-28.
Cases for Dec 22-24: 185+143+61 = 389 Cases for Dec 29-31: 327+265+198 = 790
So that's double already, yet the numbers for those days aren't even complete yet. And Christmas Day mixing and the Boxing Day sales haven't hit the numbers yet ...
On the March/April pattern, the deaths should thus by now already surely be far, far higher than we've seen.
Treatment is different, and what about age profile?
The South West actually has the lowest case rate in England on those figures, so the South stops at Dorset
Can't take the risk.
We need to seal off London and the entirety of the South.
Southerners are soft and lawbreakers.
You can make a logical argument to seal off London, the East and South East on those figures, you cannot include the South West however without another national lockdown.
It is further from London to Penzance for instance than it is from London to Manchester
I don’t think the virus travels alone by the statue mile.
In terms of infectivity, London and Manchester are much closer, with much more back and forth travel than gets Penzance. Why do you think the SW is doing relatively well in the first place?
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
Total bullshit
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
According to the poll, the Liberal Democrats would crumble to just two seats in parliament, down from 11 won in the last general election.
A quarter of those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 say they would now vote Labour. The poll says the Lib Dems would cling on only to Bath, and Kingston and Surbiton, both by the tightest of margins. The party won 62 seats in 2005.
So either the Lib Dem’s are done - I actually think it’s possible they get wiped out next time - or perhaps mid-term polling is a waste of time.
I genuinely think they are done.
At the last election they were the only GB wide party with a polarised electorate, they were pitching for 48% of voters and they ballsed that up.
Even in my own seat, where Jared O'Mara had done so much to put off people voting Labour the Lib Dems failed, there's something really wrong. It's just not the impact of going into coalition with the Tories.
As a LD party member, I agree that at national level things look very bleak. In England the anti-Tory vote is consolidating with Labour. Bad for LDs, but probably worse for the Tories, as in target seats both LD and Green will vote tactically, in a way they would not for Corbyn.
And in marginal Tory/LD seats, pro-EU Tories will vote LD where they wouldn't last time because of Corbyn.
I'm surprised by the antipathy to Johnson and his cabinet by Tories here in Barnes including Tory members. They are spitting angry.
But that's part of why Boris isn't going to be PM at the next election, he'll last out until he's PM for longer than Theresa May but ultimately he's already made too many mistakes this year and burned far too much political capital to ensure his own survival.
Boris brings precisely one thing to the table - he's a winner. If he looks like he's not going to win then there's little point to keeping him around. MPs looking at their own majorities in the middle of next year when the Tories are 5 points down on Labour will make their move. Boris has made too many enemies in the parliamentary party, very much like Theresa May did, just for reasons other than Brexit.
And even Tory MPs can simply see that he isn’t that good.
Hardly, 48 new Tory MPs owe their seats won in 2019 to Boris
Yeah, but that was then. This is now. Even IF you think the recent Times poll was over-generous to the opposition, surely Johnson is NOT as great an electoral asset now that he's actually been PM for a while?
The South West actually has the lowest case rate in England on those figures, so the South stops at Dorset
Can't take the risk.
We need to seal off London and the entirety of the South.
Southerners are soft and lawbreakers.
You can make a logical argument to seal off London, the East and South East on those figures, you cannot include the South West however without another national lockdown.
It is further from London to Penzance for instance than it is from London to Manchester
That's because Manchester is in the South.
It is also 1 mile closer from London to Newcastle than it is from London to Penzance
Plus I live more than 5 miles north of Newcastle City Centre so today I've learnt that I live further away from London than Penzance. Every day is a school day.
I assume Williamson and the DfE are having the weekend off; still no announcement on school closures. Looking at the data, it seems inevitable that all schools will have to postpone full opening and be open just for vulnerable and key workers' kids. My LA has formally written to Gavin tonight to seek permission to keep primary schools closed; I doubt that he can refuse.
A combination of parents choosing to keep their kids at home, teachers refusing to go to work or off sick/isolating because of the virus makes school openings unviable in high virus areas. I don't understand why Gavin/Boris don't just bite the bullet and accept the reality. And if schools doe re-open fully in lower virus areas, the data trend suggests they will have to close again in a week or two.
Mind you, given that they came up with the most ludicrous idea of any during the pandemic (namely, keeping primary schools closed in some London boroughs but not others - now u-turned) nothing is surprising. It's almost as if Gavin's senior civil servants have given up advising him because they think that his downfall will be quicker if left to his own devices.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
Total bullshit
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Sadly for the UK, the quickest route back to the EU for England is if Scotland votes indy and applies to join, and NI heads back as part of Ireland. That could easily all happen within ten years, not forty.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
Total bullshit
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Sadly for the UK, the quickest route back to the EU for England is if Scotland votes indy and applies to join, and NI heads back as part of Ireland. That could easily all happen within ten years, not forty.
Actually the opposite, without Scotland's strong Remain vote there is near zero chance of the Leave voting England and Wales remainder ever rejoining the EU, especially as Tory majority governments will be much more likely in a UK minus Scotland than with a UK including Scotland. In fact minus Scotland Labour would not only have to become more Blairite but stick to accepting Brexit to ever win again, in fact even rejoining the single market would be unlikely and at most we would stick to something like the FTA we have now under both parties, with maybe a little more alignment under Labour.
If Remain voting NI rejoined the EU that would be even more the case, especially as the areas of NI most resistant to Irish unity are the only Leave voting areas in DUP dominated county Antrim
The South West actually has the lowest case rate in England on those figures, so the South stops at Dorset
Can't take the risk.
We need to seal off London and the entirety of the South.
Southerners are soft and lawbreakers.
You can make a logical argument to seal off London, the East and South East on those figures, you cannot include the South West however without another national lockdown.
It is further from London to Penzance for instance than it is from London to Manchester
That's because Manchester is in the South.
It is also 1 mile closer from London to Newcastle than it is from London to Penzance
Plus I live more than 5 miles north of Newcastle City Centre so today I've learnt that I live further away from London than Penzance. Every day is a school day.
Guardian: The planned reopening of schools in England has descended into disarray, as unions advised teachers not to return to the classroom, heads took legal action over the government’s plans and senior Tories warned that school gates may have to remain shut for weeks to come.
With warnings that some primary heads would arrive at work on Monday morning unsure about whether they would be able to reopen to pupils, teachers accused the government of making an “utter shambles” of school reopening and demanded a last-minute delay. Gavin Williamson, the education secretary, was also facing renewed calls to resign over the chaos.
Some Conservatives believe that a delay until the February half-term may be needed. Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary, said: “It is massively risky to open schools when so many parts of the NHS are teetering on the brink.
The fallout from teachers was fuelled by the revelation last week that the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies had warned ministers that it was “highly unlikely” that the pandemic could be brought under control if schools opened this week.
Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, said: “It is now beyond doubt that Williamson is the worst education secretary for a generation. From March this government has continually failed our children and young people, at a huge cost to their futures. He must go.”
Bernard Jenkin, a Tory MP who has been pushing for greater military help for testing in schools, said: “I’m afraid Gavin Williamson has not handled this well.”
It's not hard to see why the SNP's platform - leaving the UK and re-joining the EU under the leadership of Sturgeon - is so appealing to many north of the border. Conservatives in England are seriously worried that Johnson doesn't have either the energy or passion needed to combat it.
"There is genuine fear that Scotland could go under this government and that there is no energy going into addressing that," says one MP on the government's payroll. "We've struggled to make an emotional case for the Union. Partly that's because our focus is on our heartlands in England, but we are going to need to make a positive case beyond the economic benefits to Scotland."
Also, the more now Britain shifts from the EU, the more in common Northern Ireland has with the EU, and thus the Republic of Ireland," says Katy Hayward, professor of political sociology at Queen's University Belfast. The issue of the north becoming closer to the Republic has put a spring in the step of those who dream of reunification.
"Soft-nationalists who were pro-European -- and even some soft-Unionists -- have been forced to seriously rethink what Northern Ireland is and should be," says Matthew O'Toole, a Northern Irish lawmaker for the pro-reunification Social Democratic and Labour Party.
Since Johnson faces the prospect of fighting in Scotland and Northern Ireland, he risks overlooking Wales. "Covid has highlighted what devolution actually means, in terms of Welsh politicians being able to make independent policy that directly affects Welsh people," says Roger Awan-Scully, professor of politics at Cardiff University. “If Conservatives take a more aggressive line against devolution and pro-centralised control from London, it risks emboldening the anti-Westminster movement in Wales”.
If Johnson is unable to make leaving the EU look like a success and he alienates the public in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, it's inevitable that more and more voters will wonder if the grass is greener outside of the United Kingdom.
Another piece of journalism from the US where the wish is father to the thought......
Plenty of anti indy pieces form outside Scotland (ie England) where the wish is father to the thought. Fortunately the puir, wee bastirt is increasingly fatherless in Scotland.
Plenty of pro “Indy” from RT though perhaps? How useful are you to Putin would you say? Brexiteers and Scottish Nationalists: peas in the pod of Putins grand scheme to gull the most gullible.
Brexit was win-win for Putin as it weakened both the UK and the EU. Scottish independence would add to the EU while weakening the UK, but either way it's rather insignificant in the grander scheme of things. If Putin cares at all, he might well prefer not to strengthen the EU.
In the next few decades we will see political unification in the Anglosphere, and the wider West
China is becoming aggressive, and imperialist, for the first time in its history. It has always been puissant, and enormous, but was formerly content with flattery and obeisance. Now it expands, and it is bellicose.
The west will have to unite to counter it. I expect formal military and quasi-political union within the Five Eyes countries, of some sort. And the EU will be alongside.
Which side will Russia be on?
That's the thing, isn't it?
Russia's barren, empty Eastern quarter, stuffed full of natural resources, is just what China needs. A sort of Northern Resource Area, a part of the new North Asia Co-Prosperity sphere.
Maybe China makes a move to the North, and suddenly Russia wishes it had made more friends in the West.
Aren't you taking for granted that China would only be interested in Siberia? Perhaps it's the West that will wish it didn't assume Russia would be there as a buffer.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
Total bullshit
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Sadly for the UK, the quickest route back to the EU for England is if Scotland votes indy and applies to join, and NI heads back as part of Ireland. That could easily all happen within ten years, not forty.
The chances of all this for Scotland are less than many think. Five stages, each complex, are necessary: winning enough support for a very early Indyref2 to be plausible; getting one from the UK government/parliament; winning it - loads harder than it looks; applying to join the EU and being accepted.
Implausibly I think Irish unification is slightly more likely than Scottish independence in the EU. The deal puts NI firmly in the Ireland/EU orbit. As ridiculous forms of extreme religion wane it becomes thinkable; and a great deal less crazy than a border at Berwick and Gretna.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
Total bullshit
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Sadly for the UK, the quickest route back to the EU for England is if Scotland votes indy and applies to join, and NI heads back as part of Ireland. That could easily all happen within ten years, not forty.
Actually the opposite, without Scotland's strong Remain vote there is near zero chance of the Leave voting England and Wales remainder ever rejoining the EU, especially as Tory majority governments will be much more likely in a UK minus Scotland than with a UK including Scotland. In fact minus Scotland Labour would not only have to become more Blairite but stick to accepting Brexit to ever win again, in fact even rejoining the single market would be unlikely and at most we would stick to something like the FTA we have now under both parties, with maybe a little more alignment under Labour.
If Remain voting NI rejoined the EU that would be even more the case, especially as the areas of NI most resistant to Irish unity are the only Leave voting areas in DUP dominated county Antrim
Never mind the wood, you keep studying those trees...
According to the poll, the Liberal Democrats would crumble to just two seats in parliament, down from 11 won in the last general election.
A quarter of those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 say they would now vote Labour. The poll says the Lib Dems would cling on only to Bath, and Kingston and Surbiton, both by the tightest of margins. The party won 62 seats in 2005.
So either the Lib Dem’s are done - I actually think it’s possible they get wiped out next time - or perhaps mid-term polling is a waste of time.
I genuinely think they are done.
At the last election they were the only GB wide party with a polarised electorate, they were pitching for 48% of voters and they ballsed that up.
Even in my own seat, where Jared O'Mara had done so much to put off people voting Labour the Lib Dems failed, there's something really wrong. It's just not the impact of going into coalition with the Tories.
As a LD party member, I agree that at national level things look very bleak. In England the anti-Tory vote is consolidating with Labour. Bad for LDs, but probably worse for the Tories, as in target seats both LD and Green will vote tactically, in a way they would not for Corbyn.
And in marginal Tory/LD seats, pro-EU Tories will vote LD where they wouldn't last time because of Corbyn.
I'm surprised by the antipathy to Johnson and his cabinet by Tories here in Barnes including Tory members. They are spitting angry.
But that's part of why Boris isn't going to be PM at the next election, he'll last out until he's PM for longer than Theresa May but ultimately he's already made too many mistakes this year and burned far too much political capital to ensure his own survival.
Boris brings precisely one thing to the table - he's a winner. If he looks like he's not going to win then there's little point to keeping him around. MPs looking at their own majorities in the middle of next year when the Tories are 5 points down on Labour will make their move. Boris has made too many enemies in the parliamentary party, very much like Theresa May did, just for reasons other than Brexit.
And even Tory MPs can simply see that he isn’t that good.
Hardly, 48 new Tory MPs owe their seats won in 2019 to Boris
Yeah, but that was then. This is now. Even IF you think the recent Times poll was over-generous to the opposition, surely Johnson is NOT as great an electoral asset now that he's actually been PM for a while?
I expect Boris to get a bounce once the first full post Brexit Deal poll comes out, at least to the extent the Tories take the lead again
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
Total bullshit
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Sadly for the UK, the quickest route back to the EU for England is if Scotland votes indy and applies to join, and NI heads back as part of Ireland. That could easily all happen within ten years, not forty.
Actually the opposite, without Scotland's strong Remain vote there is near zero chance of the Leave voting England and Wales remainder ever rejoining the EU, especially as Tory majority governments will be much more likely in a UK minus Scotland than with a UK including Scotland. In fact minus Scotland Labour would not only have to become more Blairite but stick to accepting Brexit to ever win again, in fact even rejoining the single market would be unlikely and at most we would stick to something like the FTA we have now under both parties, with maybe a little more alignment under Labour.
If Remain voting NI rejoined the EU that would be even more the case, especially as the areas of NI most resistant to Irish unity are the only Leave voting areas in DUP dominated county Antrim
You cannot extrapolate from "more Leave in 2016" to "less Rejoin in 2026." It is bonkers to do so. In 2026 (or whenever) different people will be answering different questions in a different context.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
Total bullshit
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Sadly for the UK, the quickest route back to the EU for England is if Scotland votes indy and applies to join, and NI heads back as part of Ireland. That could easily all happen within ten years, not forty.
Yes, under that scenario, the pressure for a shrunken and isolated England to join the EU could prove irresistible. It would actually be a rather tragic state of affairs so I wouldn't relish seeing it.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
Total bullshit
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Sadly for the UK, the quickest route back to the EU for England is if Scotland votes indy and applies to join, and NI heads back as part of Ireland. That could easily all happen within ten years, not forty.
Actually the opposite, without Scotland's strong Remain vote there is near zero chance of the Leave voting England and Wales remainder ever rejoining the EU, especially as Tory majority governments will be much more likely in a UK minus Scotland than with a UK including Scotland. In fact minus Scotland Labour would not only have to become more Blairite but stick to accepting Brexit to ever win again, in fact even rejoining the single market would be unlikely and at most we would stick to something like the FTA we have now under both parties, with maybe a little more alignment under Labour.
If Remain voting NI rejoined the EU that would be even more the case, especially as the areas of NI most resistant to Irish unity are the only Leave voting areas in DUP dominated county Antrim
Never mind the wood, you keep studying those trees...
Just stating facts, if you lose the only 2 countries in the UK to vote Remain you leave a rUK, or England and Wales, that majority voted Leave in every constituent nation.
That would kill rejoin the EU and probably kill rejoin the single market too, just simple maths tells you that.
Plus of course the Tories would have won an overall majority in both 2010 and 2017 if Westminster lost its Scottish MPs, so it would also shift Westminster even further to the pro Brexit right
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
Total bullshit
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Sadly for the UK, the quickest route back to the EU for England is if Scotland votes indy and applies to join, and NI heads back as part of Ireland. That could easily all happen within ten years, not forty.
Possible, but not that likely.
The Northern Irish don't seem to realise they now have the best deal of anywhere in "the EU and former EU". Access to the Single Markets of the UK AND the EU, AND they get Irish and British passports, so Free Movement in both areas. They are the first class citizens of Europe, with more rights than anyone else, as things stand.
These are really significant advantages, and eventually the Ulsterfolk will realise, as investment floods in. Reunification with Eire and detachment from the UK is therefore, logically, further away than it has been for decades. Paradoxically. I think some in southern Ireland have already clocked this, but not people north of Newry.
Of the two scenarios, Socttish indy is more likely. But it won't happen until 2024 because the Tories will simply say No to indyref2
That's a long four years. Who knows. And even then the SNP will have to persuade Starmer to grant a plebiscite.
But yes there is a serious chance that the Tory refusal to cede a vote will lead to a huge indysurge, and Scotland will leave the UK in 2026. Equally, none of this may happen, and the simple fact of Brexit will lead to divergence between all of Great Britain and the EU making Sindy less atractiive.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
Total bullshit
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Sadly for the UK, the quickest route back to the EU for England is if Scotland votes indy and applies to join, and NI heads back as part of Ireland. That could easily all happen within ten years, not forty.
Actually the opposite, without Scotland's strong Remain vote there is near zero chance of the Leave voting England and Wales remainder ever rejoining the EU, especially as Tory majority governments will be much more likely in a UK minus Scotland than with a UK including Scotland. In fact minus Scotland Labour would not only have to become more Blairite but stick to accepting Brexit to ever win again, in fact even rejoining the single market would be unlikely and at most we would stick to something like the FTA we have now under both parties, with maybe a little more alignment under Labour.
If Remain voting NI rejoined the EU that would be even more the case, especially as the areas of NI most resistant to Irish unity are the only Leave voting areas in DUP dominated county Antrim
Never mind the wood, you keep studying those trees...
Just stating facts, if you lose the only 2 countries in the UK to vote Remain you leave a rUK, or England and Wales, that majority voted Leave in every constituent nation.
That would kill rejoin the EU and probably kill rejoin the single market too, just simple maths tells you that.
Plus of course the Tories would have won an overall majority in both 2010 and 2017 if Westminster lost its Scottish MPs, so it would also shift Westminster even further to the pro Brexit right
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
It won't be a battle to rejoin, or at least not for decades, it will be a series of skirmishes on a series of points designed in each case to align us more closely with where we used to be.
Or further away, depending on what brings more trade advantages. IF Europe completely stagnates (look at the demography of Italy, or even Germany) then the EU will soon seem much less appealing.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
It won't be a battle to rejoin, or at least not for decades, it will be a series of skirmishes on a series of points designed in each case to align us more closely with where we used to be.
Or further away, depending on what brings more trade advantages. IF Europe completely stagnates (look at the demography of Italy, or even Germany) then the EU will soon seem much less appealing.
Germany's just had a huge influx of young-skewed migrants, which was probably quite a canny move for its economy. Italy's had a much less organised influx, which, being a much more culturally conservative society, it will probably take much longer to integrate.
I would be laying Pence for 2024 (price dependent)
Last time that a sitting VP was defeated for re-election, then went on to be nominated and elected POTUS was - never.
Last time a sitting VP was defeated for re-election after only 1 term of his party in the White House, Walter Mondale in 1980, he ended up being his party's nominee for the next presidential election in 1984
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
It won't be a battle to rejoin, or at least not for decades, it will be a series of skirmishes on a series of points designed in each case to align us more closely with where we used to be.
Or further away, depending on what brings more trade advantages. IF Europe completely stagnates (look at the demography of Italy, or even Germany) then the EU will soon seem much less appealing.
Germany's just had a huge influx of young-skewed migrants, which was probably quite a canny move for its economy. Italy's had a much less organised influx, which, being a much more culturally conservative society, it will probably take much longer to integrate.
No. Germany took in a sudden huge unvetted surge of mostly young men, often unskilled, many of them hostile to German culture. It was insane. It will not benefit Germany.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
Total bullshit
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Sadly for the UK, the quickest route back to the EU for England is if Scotland votes indy and applies to join, and NI heads back as part of Ireland. That could easily all happen within ten years, not forty.
Actually the opposite, without Scotland's strong Remain vote there is near zero chance of the Leave voting England and Wales remainder ever rejoining the EU, especially as Tory majority governments will be much more likely in a UK minus Scotland than with a UK including Scotland. In fact minus Scotland Labour would not only have to become more Blairite but stick to accepting Brexit to ever win again, in fact even rejoining the single market would be unlikely and at most we would stick to something like the FTA we have now under both parties, with maybe a little more alignment under Labour.
If Remain voting NI rejoined the EU that would be even more the case, especially as the areas of NI most resistant to Irish unity are the only Leave voting areas in DUP dominated county Antrim
Never mind the wood, you keep studying those trees...
Just stating facts, if you lose the only 2 countries in the UK to vote Remain you leave a rUK, or England and Wales, that majority voted Leave in every constituent nation.
That would kill rejoin the EU and probably kill rejoin the single market too, just simple maths tells you that.
Plus of course the Tories would have won an overall majority in both 2010 and 2017 if Westminster lost its Scottish MPs, so it would also shift Westminster even further to the pro Brexit right
Politics is rather more than simple maths.
As LBJ said the most important thing in politics is being able to count.
I am a diehard Unionist as is obvious but politically there is no doubt losing Scotland would shift the rUK remaining even further to the pro Brexit right and benefit the Tories most of all. The biggest losers by far would be the anti Brexit left who would have lost one of their core bastions in Scotland, leaving just London remaining.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
It won't be a battle to rejoin, or at least not for decades, it will be a series of skirmishes on a series of points designed in each case to align us more closely with where we used to be.
Or further away, depending on what brings more trade advantages. IF Europe completely stagnates (look at the demography of Italy, or even Germany) then the EU will soon seem much less appealing.
Germany's just had a huge influx of young-skewed migrants, which was probably quite a canny move for its economy. Italy's had a much less organised influx, which, being a much more culturally conservative society, it will probably take much longer to integrate.
No. Germany took in a sudden huge unvetted surge of mostly young men, often unskilled, many of them hostile to German culture. It was insane. It will not benefit Germany.
That's your subjective view on cultural questions, but Merkel knew what she was doing on economic ones.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
Total bullshit
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.
I would be laying Pence for 2024 (price dependent)
Last time that a sitting VP was defeated for re-election, then went on to be nominated and elected POTUS was - never.
Last time a sitting VP was defeated for re-election after only 1 term of his party in the White House, Walter Mondale in 1980, he ended up being his party's nominee for the next presidential election in 1984
And winning one state, his own Minnesota, plus DC.
Just pointing out that shekels gambled on Pence may be less than a wise investment. Especially when IIRC Fritz Mondale did NOT have fanatical Jimmy Carter-ites chewing on his tender hindquarters.
Even IF the next four years do NOT turn out to be Morning in America Redux think that Pence's ties to The Donald will be more of an impediment than an asset.
Because for pro-Trumpskyites they will be too little, and for anti-Trumpers too much.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
Total bullshit
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Sadly for the UK, the quickest route back to the EU for England is if Scotland votes indy and applies to join, and NI heads back as part of Ireland. That could easily all happen within ten years, not forty.
Actually the opposite, without Scotland's strong Remain vote there is near zero chance of the Leave voting England and Wales remainder ever rejoining the EU, especially as Tory majority governments will be much more likely in a UK minus Scotland than with a UK including Scotland. In fact minus Scotland Labour would not only have to become more Blairite but stick to accepting Brexit to ever win again, in fact even rejoining the single market would be unlikely and at most we would stick to something like the FTA we have now under both parties, with maybe a little more alignment under Labour.
If Remain voting NI rejoined the EU that would be even more the case, especially as the areas of NI most resistant to Irish unity are the only Leave voting areas in DUP dominated county Antrim
Never mind the wood, you keep studying those trees...
Just stating facts, if you lose the only 2 countries in the UK to vote Remain you leave a rUK, or England and Wales, that majority voted Leave in every constituent nation.
That would kill rejoin the EU and probably kill rejoin the single market too, just simple maths tells you that.
Plus of course the Tories would have won an overall majority in both 2010 and 2017 if Westminster lost its Scottish MPs, so it would also shift Westminster even further to the pro Brexit right
Politics is rather more than simple maths.
As LBJ said the most important thing in politics is being able to count.
I am a diehard Unionist as is obvious but politically there is no doubt losing Scotland would shift the rUK remaining even further to the pro Brexit right and benefit the Tories most of all. The biggest losers by far would be the anti Brexit left who would have lost one of their core bastions in Scotland, leaving just London remaining.
Not necessarily. The break up of our country would shift our politics in ways it is currently hard to discern. Especially if Tory idiocy and obsession with Europe is seen to be the cause.
I assume Williamson and the DfE are having the weekend off; still no announcement on school closures. Looking at the data, it seems inevitable that all schools will have to postpone full opening and be open just for vulnerable and key workers' kids. My LA has formally written to Gavin tonight to seek permission to keep primary schools closed; I doubt that he can refuse.
A combination of parents choosing to keep their kids at home, teachers refusing to go to work or off sick/isolating because of the virus makes school openings unviable in high virus areas. I don't understand why Gavin/Boris don't just bite the bullet and accept the reality. And if schools doe re-open fully in lower virus areas, the data trend suggests they will have to close again in a week or two.
Mind you, given that they came up with the most ludicrous idea of any during the pandemic (namely, keeping primary schools closed in some London boroughs but not others - now u-turned) nothing is surprising. It's almost as if Gavin's senior civil servants have given up advising him because they think that his downfall will be quicker if left to his own devices.
As I said earlier I don't want to send my 9 year old daughter back. Her 13 year old brother gets 2 further weeks of safety.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
It won't be a battle to rejoin, or at least not for decades, it will be a series of skirmishes on a series of points designed in each case to align us more closely with where we used to be.
Or further away, depending on what brings more trade advantages. IF Europe completely stagnates (look at the demography of Italy, or even Germany) then the EU will soon seem much less appealing.
Germany's just had a huge influx of young-skewed migrants, which was probably quite a canny move for its economy. Italy's had a much less organised influx, which, being a much more culturally conservative society, it will probably take much longer to integrate.
No. Germany took in a sudden huge unvetted surge of mostly young men, often unskilled, many of them hostile to German culture. It was insane. It will not benefit Germany.
That's your subjective view on cultural questions, but Merkel knew what she was doing on economic ones.
No, she didn't. She made a terrible error born of her ancestral Protestant guilt-complex, which is why she then vowed to the German people that she would never do it again.
NHS requiring your inside leg measurement and wang length before being allowed to be consideered for.volunteering to help with vaccination drive has finally been picked up by BBC..
'Some medics have been asked for proof they are trained in areas such as preventing radicalisation.'
Insane. They are going to see each person for what, five minutes?
Can't be too.careful....ISIS recruiters might use the queues as an opportunity to get some.new recruits...especially among all those OAPs currently getting vaccinated.
As I pointed out at Breakfast: it is this government that made Prevent Training compulsory, and withdrew prescribing rights for retired doctors, by establishing the rules for Revalidation and License to practice in 2012.
Its almost as if they are a bunch of turnip heads...
So Random capitilisation is the source of iSIs radicalism?
Edit: Sorry I was being mean here. It was unfair.
Prevent Training is correctly capitalised, as it is a Proper Noun, as are Revalidation and Licence. I will concede on Breakfast 🙄
The staff canteen at my local District Hospital is the only one in the place that serves traditional Full English breakfasts
Admittedly it was 30 years ago, but I used to work in a hospital where all the patients in the cardiac ward got a Full English each morning.
Actually, breakfast is by far the best meal in any hospital canteen. Like traditional boiled sponge puddings, it is one thing that mass scale cooking is better at than small scale.
I had a portly friend whose wife put him on a diet, who used to get in early for a hospital Full English each morning. In his view it was the height of bad manners to lose weight faster than his wife...
I used to work at a hospital that had an ambulance station attached. Did a good Full English, which I would normally avoid but often had a black pudding sandwich for a morning snack when they were selling off the breakfast items. The hospital was desperate to get them to sell healthy items but the ambulance crews would have none of it, they wanted a proper breakfast when coming off the night shift. As I am now low carb, I am in the happy position of regarding a Full English as being a healthy meal as long as it doesn't come with beans or toast.
I'm afraid that just shows you how far we've got to come for the health service to function as it should. That breakfast was demanded (by the bodies and taste buds of the ambulance crews) because it was nutrient dense, rich in satiating fats, vitamin A and D, etc. A far healthier breakfast than toast, margarine, cornflakes, porridge and skimmed milk. Sadly the patients aren't in a position to make similar demands.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
Total bullshit
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.
Good luck to the political party out selling "Vassal State" on the doorsteps.....
I think the 'Red Wall Tories' are, by their very nature, rather cantankerous types, so were never likely to bestow much gratitude upon Boris for all he has given them. 'Voted Tory once but nivver again', will be the prevailing refrain.
I think there is clearly a pool of voters who have been moving away from Labour for a long time, or who feel Labour has been moving away from them for a long time, and who are much more likely to stick with the Tories from now on. Having made the mental jump, they will continue to feel that it makes sense.
However, the ones who really felt pushed to vote Tory this time, who still feel that they are Labour, and who are inevitably disappointed by events, also form part of that Red Wall block. I would not be surprised if substantial numbers of seats return to Labour on that basis.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
It won't be a battle to rejoin, or at least not for decades, it will be a series of skirmishes on a series of points designed in each case to align us more closely with where we used to be.
Or further away, depending on what brings more trade advantages. IF Europe completely stagnates (look at the demography of Italy, or even Germany) then the EU will soon seem much less appealing.
Germany's just had a huge influx of young-skewed migrants, which was probably quite a canny move for its economy. Italy's had a much less organised influx, which, being a much more culturally conservative society, it will probably take much longer to integrate.
No. Germany took in a sudden huge unvetted surge of mostly young men, often unskilled, many of them hostile to German culture. It was insane. It will not benefit Germany.
That's your subjective view on cultural questions, but Merkel knew what she was doing on economic ones.
No, she didn't. She made a terrible error born of her ancestral Protestant guilt-complex, which is why she then vowed to the German people that she would never do it again.
Many of the descendants of the unskilled Syrians and Iraqis will be skilled ( many were already skiled ), as they are in London and elsewhere, and she only would have been punished had she let the influx continue, rather than on principle. Modern Germany is pragmatic.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
Total bullshit
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Sadly for the UK, the quickest route back to the EU for England is if Scotland votes indy and applies to join, and NI heads back as part of Ireland. That could easily all happen within ten years, not forty.
Actually the opposite, without Scotland's strong Remain vote there is near zero chance of the Leave voting England and Wales remainder ever rejoining the EU, especially as Tory majority governments will be much more likely in a UK minus Scotland than with a UK including Scotland. In fact minus Scotland Labour would not only have to become more Blairite but stick to accepting Brexit to ever win again, in fact even rejoining the single market would be unlikely and at most we would stick to something like the FTA we have now under both parties, with maybe a little more alignment under Labour.
If Remain voting NI rejoined the EU that would be even more the case, especially as the areas of NI most resistant to Irish unity are the only Leave voting areas in DUP dominated county Antrim
Never mind the wood, you keep studying those trees...
Just stating facts, if you lose the only 2 countries in the UK to vote Remain you leave a rUK, or England and Wales, that majority voted Leave in every constituent nation.
That would kill rejoin the EU and probably kill rejoin the single market too, just simple maths tells you that.
Plus of course the Tories would have won an overall majority in both 2010 and 2017 if Westminster lost its Scottish MPs, so it would also shift Westminster even further to the pro Brexit right
Politics is rather more than simple maths.
As LBJ said the most important thing in politics is being able to count.
I am a diehard Unionist as is obvious but politically there is no doubt losing Scotland would shift the rUK remaining even further to the pro Brexit right and benefit the Tories most of all. The biggest losers by far would be the anti Brexit left who would have lost one of their core bastions in Scotland, leaving just London remaining.
Not necessarily. The break up of our country would shift our politics in ways it is currently hard to discern. Especially if Tory idiocy and obsession with Europe is seen to be the cause.
It would shift our country even more firmly to the pro Brexit right.
Without Scotland Labour would only have won 2 elections since WW2 other than those Blair won ie in 1945 and 1966, the Tories would have won in 1964 and February 1974 elections they lost with Scottish MPs at Westminster and the Tories would also have won majorities in 2010 and 2017 that ended up in hung parliaments once Scottish MPs were included.
The 2016 referendum would also have seen a significantly bigger Leave majority minus Scotland
This is what's most concerning at the moment. Many more people seem to be surviving, but many more seem to be young. Maybe the two are connected.
You'd expect the profile to switch towards the younger. Weren't roughly half the deaths in the first wave from care homes? Presumably these are much better protected now (for those who survived). Older people are much more cautious now than in March/April. So, you'd expect hospitalisations to have a younger/less really old profile, and deaths commensurately to be lower.
Having said that, the death numbers are still high and may yet outstrip the spring totals. If I remember correctly, around 42,000 deaths were recorded under the 28-day rule by June; that figure has already reached just about 75,000, so 33,000 and many more to come in this wave.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
Total bullshit
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.
Yes. We're going to have to confront these vastly difficult conundrums sooner rather than later. Our previous European policy was decades in the making by some of Britain's finest minds. (Boris's comedic columnist's waffle about Rule Britannia and whatever won't cut it for much longer I'm afraid.)
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
Total bullshit
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.
This is to presume the EU is as mighty, confident, powerful and immovable as imperial Rome or China. Which is, frankly, laughable.
It may have escaped your attention that the EU has just lost its 2nd or 3rd largest "province", containing its most important city, its best universities, the home of its most widely spoken language, its equal best military, its biggest soft power, and about a sixth of its population and GDP. This is not something that casually happens to great empires on the up.
It would be like Imperial Rome losing all of Gaul, with a chunk of Spain as well. A colossal blow. And it has a currency which is a disaster waiting to happen.
Who would bow in vassalage to an empire so clearly on the decline?
This is what's most concerning at the moment. Many more people seem to be surviving, but many more seem to be young. Maybe the two are connected.
Is this new variant hitting younger people?
There are suggestions that this may be the key to its greater infectivity, but no hard data or confirmed research as yet.
My friends with the baby and Covid update: baby seems to be on the mend - but parents (late 30's) are both very weak, suffering from terrible headaches and have lost their taste and smell.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
That seems a little complacent about how easy it will be, assuming the advocates of the new status quo won't be up to it, the mistake Remain made in the first place.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
Total bullshit
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.
Good luck to the political party out selling "Vassal State" on the doorsteps.....
Exactly. That's why Brexit is so not over. The UK doesn't have a viable end state and the UK government is not trying to get one.
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.
Total bullshit
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Sadly for the UK, the quickest route back to the EU for England is if Scotland votes indy and applies to join, and NI heads back as part of Ireland. That could easily all happen within ten years, not forty.
Actually the opposite, without Scotland's strong Remain vote there is near zero chance of the Leave voting England and Wales remainder ever rejoining the EU, especially as Tory majority governments will be much more likely in a UK minus Scotland than with a UK including Scotland. In fact minus Scotland Labour would not only have to become more Blairite but stick to accepting Brexit to ever win again, in fact even rejoining the single market would be unlikely and at most we would stick to something like the FTA we have now under both parties, with maybe a little more alignment under Labour.
If Remain voting NI rejoined the EU that would be even more the case, especially as the areas of NI most resistant to Irish unity are the only Leave voting areas in DUP dominated county Antrim
Never mind the wood, you keep studying those trees...
Just stating facts, if you lose the only 2 countries in the UK to vote Remain you leave a rUK, or England and Wales, that majority voted Leave in every constituent nation.
That would kill rejoin the EU and probably kill rejoin the single market too, just simple maths tells you that.
Plus of course the Tories would have won an overall majority in both 2010 and 2017 if Westminster lost its Scottish MPs, so it would also shift Westminster even further to the pro Brexit right
Politics is rather more than simple maths.
As LBJ said the most important thing in politics is being able to count.
I am a diehard Unionist as is obvious but politically there is no doubt losing Scotland would shift the rUK remaining even further to the pro Brexit right and benefit the Tories most of all. The biggest losers by far would be the anti Brexit left who would have lost one of their core bastions in Scotland, leaving just London remaining.
Not necessarily. The break up of our country would shift our politics in ways it is currently hard to discern. Especially if Tory idiocy and obsession with Europe is seen to be the cause.
Yes. @HYUFD seems to be unable to think outside the parameters of "now". Sure the loss of Scotland would pull rUK's politics further to the "right", but of course the new Tory coalition is much more left-wing economically than it has been for a long time anyway. And we have no idea what will happen in the future and its effect on the politics of rUK.
Utterly disgraceful. Far beyond any virtue signalling attempt. It'd be one thing if actual evidence of substantial problems had emerged in the legal challenges, but they basically come down to 'A lot of allegations have been made, therefore we need to challenge this'.
Comments
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1345470555634491397
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Russia's barren, empty Eastern quarter, stuffed full of natural resources, is just what China needs. A sort of Northern Resource Area, a part of the new North Asia Co-Prosperity sphere.
Maybe China makes a move to the North, and suddenly Russia wishes it had made more friends in the West.
It is further from London to Penzance for instance than it is from London to Manchester
Assuming he managed to avoid being executed for treason, of course...
I bet Lin Wood, Rudi, et al would tell Trump yes he can.
If we had a million doses a day to distribute (we don't), then you could simply have walk through systems at pharmacies, GPs, schools, stadiums, etc., where people come with their bus pass or passport or driving license, and queue and get their - ahem - inoculation.
You could simply say: Monday 13th, anyone born before 3/3/1952, Tuesday 14th, 1/8/1952, etc.
If some people don't get it, so what? The goal is to get as many people immunised as quickly as possible, and making sure the most vulnerable get it first.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inoculation
Incredible.
This is reflected in its tone on socio-economic issues, while cultural ones are a slightly different question.
Now regardless of what he says, Trumpsky wants for both Perdue and Loeffler to join him in the losers circle.
Misery loves company - and a more miserable SOB than our 45th President is hard to imagine.
Current official 7 day average for Manchester: 208.6.
But that's Dec 22-28.
Cases for Dec 22-24: 185+143+61 = 389
Cases for Dec 29-31: 327+265+198 = 790
So that's double already, yet the numbers for those days aren't even complete yet. And Christmas Day mixing and the Boxing Day sales haven't hit the numbers yet ...
Trump I think will in the end not run a third time
As is, the GOP senators and congressmen that are going to vote against certificatrion probably deserve to be executed by firing squad. They're lucky to live in a time when they don't get their just deserts - it's a complete abuse of their constitutional authority.
https://www.motorwaycameras.co.uk/england/m42/northbound/traffic-camera/1758
In terms of infectivity, London and Manchester are much closer, with much more back and forth travel than gets Penzance. Why do you think the SW is doing relatively well in the first place?
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
A combination of parents choosing to keep their kids at home, teachers refusing to go to work or off sick/isolating because of the virus makes school openings unviable in high virus areas. I don't understand why Gavin/Boris don't just bite the bullet and accept the reality. And if schools doe re-open fully in lower virus areas, the data trend suggests they will have to close again in a week or two.
Mind you, given that they came up with the most ludicrous idea of any during the pandemic (namely, keeping primary schools closed in some London boroughs but not others - now u-turned) nothing is surprising. It's almost as if Gavin's senior civil servants have given up advising him because they think that his downfall will be quicker if left to his own devices.
If Remain voting NI rejoined the EU that would be even more the case, especially as the areas of NI most resistant to Irish unity are the only Leave voting areas in DUP dominated county Antrim
With warnings that some primary heads would arrive at work on Monday morning unsure about whether they would be able to reopen to pupils, teachers accused the government of making an “utter shambles” of school reopening and demanded a last-minute delay. Gavin Williamson, the education secretary, was also facing renewed calls to resign over the chaos.
Some Conservatives believe that a delay until the February half-term may be needed. Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary, said: “It is massively risky to open schools when so many parts of the NHS are teetering on the brink.
The fallout from teachers was fuelled by the revelation last week that the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies had warned ministers that it was “highly unlikely” that the pandemic could be brought under control if schools opened this week.
Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, said: “It is now beyond doubt that Williamson is the worst education secretary for a generation. From March this government has continually failed our children and young people, at a huge cost to their futures. He must go.”
Bernard Jenkin, a Tory MP who has been pushing for greater military help for testing in schools, said: “I’m afraid Gavin Williamson has not handled this well.”
Implausibly I think Irish unification is slightly more likely than Scottish independence in the EU. The deal puts NI firmly in the Ireland/EU orbit. As ridiculous forms of extreme religion wane it becomes thinkable; and a great deal less crazy than a border at Berwick and Gretna.
That would kill rejoin the EU and probably kill rejoin the single market too, just simple maths tells you that.
Plus of course the Tories would have won an overall majority in both 2010 and 2017 if Westminster lost its Scottish MPs, so it would also shift Westminster even further to the pro Brexit right
The Northern Irish don't seem to realise they now have the best deal of anywhere in "the EU and former EU". Access to the Single Markets of the UK AND the EU, AND they get Irish and British passports, so Free Movement in both areas. They are the first class citizens of Europe, with more rights than anyone else, as things stand.
These are really significant advantages, and eventually the Ulsterfolk will realise, as investment floods in. Reunification with Eire and detachment from the UK is therefore, logically, further away than it has been for decades. Paradoxically. I think some in southern Ireland have already clocked this, but not people north of Newry.
Of the two scenarios, Socttish indy is more likely. But it won't happen until 2024 because the Tories will simply say No to indyref2
That's a long four years. Who knows. And even then the SNP will have to persuade Starmer to grant a plebiscite.
But yes there is a serious chance that the Tory refusal to cede a vote will lead to a huge indysurge, and Scotland will leave the UK in 2026. Equally, none of this may happen, and the simple fact of Brexit will lead to divergence between all of Great Britain and the EU making Sindy less atractiive.
All to play for.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/22/africa/drc-forest-new-virus-intl/index.html
Or Peston?
ICU doctor
I am a diehard Unionist as is obvious but politically there is no doubt losing Scotland would shift the rUK remaining even further to the pro Brexit right and benefit the Tories most of all. The biggest losers by far would be the anti Brexit left who would have lost one of their core bastions in Scotland, leaving just London remaining.
Veep - 1953 - 1961.
Lost Presidncy to JFK in 1960
President 1968 - 1974
That should give Pence some comfort he might become President in 2029.....!
Just pointing out that shekels gambled on Pence may be less than a wise investment. Especially when IIRC Fritz Mondale did NOT have fanatical Jimmy Carter-ites chewing on his tender hindquarters.
Even IF the next four years do NOT turn out to be Morning in America Redux think that Pence's ties to The Donald will be more of an impediment than an asset.
Because for pro-Trumpskyites they will be too little, and for anti-Trumpers too much.
Neither fish nor fowl nor good red herring!
However, the ones who really felt pushed to vote Tory this time, who still feel that they are Labour, and who are inevitably disappointed by events, also form part of that Red Wall block. I would not be surprised if substantial numbers of seats return to Labour on that basis. It's the benefit of there being nothing here.
Without Scotland Labour would only have won 2 elections since WW2 other than those Blair won ie in 1945 and 1966, the Tories would have won in 1964 and February 1974 elections they lost with Scottish MPs at Westminster and the Tories would also have won majorities in 2010 and 2017 that ended up in hung parliaments once Scottish MPs were included.
The 2016 referendum would also have seen a significantly bigger Leave majority minus Scotland
Having said that, the death numbers are still high and may yet outstrip the spring totals. If I remember correctly, around 42,000 deaths were recorded under the 28-day rule by June; that figure has already reached just about 75,000, so 33,000 and many more to come in this wave.
It may have escaped your attention that the EU has just lost its 2nd or 3rd largest "province", containing its most important city, its best universities, the home of its most widely spoken language, its equal best military, its biggest soft power, and about a sixth of its population and GDP. This is not something that casually happens to great empires on the up.
It would be like Imperial Rome losing all of Gaul, with a chunk of Spain as well. A colossal blow. And it has a currency which is a disaster waiting to happen.
Who would bow in vassalage to an empire so clearly on the decline?
Do NOT take ANY risks with this Bastard Bug.
There's no guarantee of anything.