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  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    I see Niall Ferguson's stature keeps falling:

    http://www.fa-mag.com/news/harvard-professor-gay-bashes-keynes-14173.html
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Back to Tebbit, I know I'm not the first to say or think it, but I really don't see the logic of how promising a date for an EU referendum would draw people back to the Cameroon Tories, because Cameron still wants to be in the EU, and they don't. They'll like the opportunity to vote sooner, but won't thank the Cameroons for it.

    I also think people over-estimate how important Europe is to UKIP support. Really, this is all about the fact that a great many people feel that the metropolitan elite have taken over the Conservative Party, and that they want something more traditional. UKIP today is Veritas, only with a better leader. Even if Europe were to disappear as an issue, there would still be strong support for a traditional, right-Wing, conservative (with a small 'c') party.
    I disagree. While the effect you are talking about is true, I think major pillars of UKIP's attraction are being anti-EU, and anti-mass immigration. If we leave the EU, the first would obviously go, and the major parties would control European immigration. That would be two pillars gone, and UKIP would struggle to go on without them, IMO.


    If that's true, why is it that UKIP has done disproportionately better in places with fewer European immigrants, and worse in places with more?
    THere aren't too many Europeans in Folkesone as I just saw on Sky. All 3 wards fell to UKIP.
    It is full of newly converted Kippers opening their conversations with: "I am not a racist but ..."
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    nigel4england said:

    tim said:

    Slow learners

    @suttonnick: Observer front page - "Tories call for rapid Europe vote to halt Farage surge" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/iK9Y6MQbKz

    What is Ed's offering?


    If you want to know what EdM is offering ;

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01s46vj/World_at_One_29_04_2013/

    Despair , incompentence , and evasion.
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2013
    @rcs1000 To be fair I think there is some truth in UKIP's claim to be different. Mainly that they're not worried about being politically correct in the way the other three parties are. I imagine this would change should they ever get into national government.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited May 2013
    Mick_Pork said:

    kle4 said:

    One does wonder if even spinners have their limits though.

    You might, I don't.
    Not that little Ed has covered himself in glory either but purely on where the tories and Cameron stand it's pretty self-evident that this is not a week of good news.

    The LD line of moving from a party of protest to one of government is running a bit thin as well, though it was malnourished to begin with. Because of course, having your local councillor base gutted (although this time they didn't do too badly all things considered) is a sign of a party growing up. Apparently. For some reason.

    I await the day they purport losing all seats in Scotland as the ultimate sign of maturing as a political party.

    Weird thing is, I'm still more minded to vote for them than the alternatives in my area.
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Back to Tebbit, I know I'm not the first to say or think it, but I really don't see the logic of how promising a date for an EU referendum would draw people back to the Cameroon Tories, because Cameron still wants to be in the EU, and they don't. They'll like the opportunity to vote sooner, but won't thank the Cameroons for it.

    I also think people over-estimate how important Europe is to UKIP support. Really, this is all about the fact that a great many people feel that the metropolitan elite have taken over the Conservative Party, and that they want something more traditional. UKIP today is Veritas, only with a better leader. Even if Europe were to disappear as an issue, there would still be strong support for a traditional, right-Wing, conservative (with a small 'c') party.
    I disagree. While the effect you are talking about is true, I think major pillars of UKIP's attraction are being anti-EU, and anti-mass immigration. If we leave the EU, the first would obviously go, and the major parties would control European immigration. That would be two pillars gone, and UKIP would struggle to go on without them, IMO.


    If that's true, why is it that UKIP has done disproportionately better in places with fewer European immigrants, and worse in places with more?
    Because people that don't like mass immigration move to areas that don't have it?
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Socrates said:

    @rcs1000 To be fair I think there is some truth in UKIP's claim to be different. Mainly that they're not worried about being politically correct in the way the other three parties are. I imagine this would change should they ever get into national government.

    That's a good point. I would also assume that over time, UKIPs policies will mature as they get more scrutiny (not that that happened to the Libs, mind).
  • MrJones
    MrJones Posts: 3,523
    Socrates said:

    @rcs1000 To be fair I think there is some truth in UKIP's claim to be different. Mainly that they're not worried about being politically correct in the way the other three parties are. I imagine this would change should they ever get into national government.

    That in itself is a big thing because it's partly what makes other politicians all look the same.
  • itdoesntaddup
    itdoesntaddup Posts: 58
    rcs1000 said:

    MrJones said:

    Regardless of practical factors Ukips's best weapon is "they're all the same" i.e. the political class is a caste who operate against the public on issues where the different wings of the caste all agree - like the EU. The shenanigans around the Lisbon non-referendum is one of the best examples of that.


    I have written in the past about the absurdity of UKIP's energy policies and shan't do so again, beyond saying that no political party can meaningfully reduce the cost of electricity in this country.


    I think you can only make that statement on the proviso that you retain the existing energy legislation. It would be a simple matter to avoid the lion's share of the planned energy investment by aiming to use coal (which is cheap at the moment and likely to remain so), and gas, with rapid development of shale gas soon reducing our import parity pricing. Just avoiding the investment in windmills and grid extensions and smart meters etc. would knock a good chunk off the bill. Using cheap coal - still more. And gas would also become cheaper, partly because some would be displaced by coal.

    Last week the HoL was moaning that it saw difficulty in raising €1 trillion for uneconomic energy investment in the EU. They're right: if I were running an energy firm, I would be scared witless that the EU would go broke leaving me holding the baby. You have only to see what is happening in Spain on that front. The EU can't afford the subsidies and uncompetitive prices it would entail.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited May 2013
    Socrates said:

    @rcs1000 To be fair I think there is some truth in UKIP's claim to be different. Mainly that they're not worried about being politically correct in the way the other three parties are. I imagine this would change should they ever get into national government.

    I think it would have to. My occasional impression is that they revel in their un-PC reputation, which while a wecome change of pace a lot of the time, does mean that they sometimes blurt out idiot things because blurting out un-pc things has become their default position, and there are occasions when the public won't appreciate it.

    At present, given the other parties are so incautious and well trained they appear the same as a result, it works more often than not though.

  • Mick_Pork
    Mick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    kle4 said:

    but at the end of the day they are a politicl party like any other

    That's the change. You just put your finger on it. In 2010 they could almost (but not quite) be easily dismissed with Cammie's "loonies, fruitcakes and closet racists". Not any more.

    The sheer glee with which all the political reporters repeatedly reused Cameron and Clarke's lines was a measure of just how badly Cameron and Osbrowne have miscalculated recently.

    Now they are back to spinning "it's a choice between little Ed and Cammie". All well and good except that didn't deliver a majority in 2010 either and it was used then to try and cripple Clegg with the amusing coalition result we now have. Doesn't sound particularly clever to claim it's a two party choice while you are in a coalition with the lib dems but they clearly have no ideas left.

  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    nigel4england said:

    tim said:

    Slow learners

    @suttonnick: Observer front page - "Tories call for rapid Europe vote to halt Farage surge" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/iK9Y6MQbKz

    What is Ed's offering?


    If you want to know what EdM is offering ;

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01s46vj/World_at_One_29_04_2013/

    Despair , incompentence , and evasion.
    There is a higher offering:

    Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his brother for his political life.
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    Sky News: Nigel Evans released on bail until 10 June. No charges.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Socrates said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Back to Tebbit, I know I'm not the first to say or think it, but I really don't see the logic of how promising a date for an EU referendum would draw people back to the Cameroon Tories, because Cameron still wants to be in the EU, and they don't. They'll like the opportunity to vote sooner, but won't thank the Cameroons for it.

    I also think people over-estimate how important Europe is to UKIP support. Really, this is all about the fact that a great many people feel that the metropolitan elite have taken over the Conservative Party, and that they want something more traditional. UKIP today is Veritas, only with a better leader. Even if Europe were to disappear as an issue, there would still be strong support for a traditional, right-Wing, conservative (with a small 'c') party.
    I disagree. While the effect you are talking about is true, I think major pillars of UKIP's attraction are being anti-EU, and anti-mass immigration. If we leave the EU, the first would obviously go, and the major parties would control European immigration. That would be two pillars gone, and UKIP would struggle to go on without them, IMO.


    If that's true, why is it that UKIP has done disproportionately better in places with fewer European immigrants, and worse in places with more?
    Because people that don't like mass immigration move to areas that don't have it?
    But I thought UKIP were doing well with WWC voters (not sure where I heard that in fairness), who probably don't have the wherewithal to move areas simply because they dislike mass immigration.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    AveryLP said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    nigel4england said:

    tim said:

    Slow learners

    @suttonnick: Observer front page - "Tories call for rapid Europe vote to halt Farage surge" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/iK9Y6MQbKz

    What is Ed's offering?


    If you want to know what EdM is offering ;

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01s46vj/World_at_One_29_04_2013/

    Despair , incompentence , and evasion.
    There is a higher offering:

    Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his brother for his political life.
    Am I the only person who thinks better of Ed M for taking on his brother for the leadership I wonder?

  • MrJones
    MrJones Posts: 3,523
    kle4 said:

    Socrates said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Back to Tebbit, I know I'm not the first to say or think it, but I really don't see the logic of how promising a date for an EU referendum would draw people back to the Cameroon Tories, because Cameron still wants to be in the EU, and they don't. They'll like the opportunity to vote sooner, but won't thank the Cameroons for it.

    I also think people over-estimate how important Europe is to UKIP support. Really, this is all about the fact that a great many people feel that the metropolitan elite have taken over the Conservative Party, and that they want something more traditional. UKIP today is Veritas, only with a better leader. Even if Europe were to disappear as an issue, there would still be strong support for a traditional, right-Wing, conservative (with a small 'c') party.
    I disagree. While the effect you are talking about is true, I think major pillars of UKIP's attraction are being anti-EU, and anti-mass immigration. If we leave the EU, the first would obviously go, and the major parties would control European immigration. That would be two pillars gone, and UKIP would struggle to go on without them, IMO.


    If that's true, why is it that UKIP has done disproportionately better in places with fewer European immigrants, and worse in places with more?
    Because people that don't like mass immigration move to areas that don't have it?
    But I thought UKIP were doing well with WWC voters (not sure where I heard that in fairness), who probably don't have the wherewithal to move areas simply because they dislike mass immigration.
    some do, some don't
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    kle4 said:

    AveryLP said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    nigel4england said:

    tim said:

    Slow learners

    @suttonnick: Observer front page - "Tories call for rapid Europe vote to halt Farage surge" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/iK9Y6MQbKz

    What is Ed's offering?


    If you want to know what EdM is offering ;

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01s46vj/World_at_One_29_04_2013/

    Despair , incompentence , and evasion.
    There is a higher offering:

    Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his brother for his political life.
    Am I the only person who thinks better of Ed M for taking on his brother for the leadership I wonder?

    Probably.
  • itdoesntaddup
    itdoesntaddup Posts: 58
    kle4 said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Not been a good week for him, has it?

    Are you mad? It been near perfect as the PBtory spinners will no doubt tell you.

    One does wonder if even spinners have their limits though.

    Give them an over before lunch to try to break a partnership or see if the ball turns... If so, a long spell may ensue until the next new ball is taken.
  • Mick_Pork
    Mick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    kle4 said:

    The LD line of moving from a party of protest to one of government is running a bit thin as well, though it was malnourished to begin with.

    Correct. Clegg knew austerity and cuts were coming and if he didn't he should have been booted out long ago. It's how you handle it and which priorities you choose.

    kle4 said:

    Because of course, having your local councillor base gutted (although this time they didn't do too badly all things considered) is a sign of a party growing up. Apparently. For some reason.

    You put your finger on it again. That's the clincher. Clegg's toxic but there is a blatantly obvious and fairly quick solution to that. Rebuilding a hammered base takes years and it the more it get's hammered the longer it will take.
    kle4 said:

    I await the day they purport losing all seats in Scotland as the ultimate sign of maturing as a political party.

    Wee Willie Rennie has that job pretty much sewn up. He almost makes Clegg look good.
    kle4 said:

    Weird thing is, I'm still more minded to vote for them than the alternatives in my area.

    If you're well served locally by them I wouldn't consider it that weird. The smarter lib dems at a local level will try to make it clear Clegg isn't their fault and that the coalition will end. As indeed will Clegg's time as leader at some point. I'm still inclined to think it's going to be before the election whether Clegg wants to or not. Finishing behind the BNP in South Shields should finally wake up some of those around Clegg to just how bad things are.

  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    kle4 said:

    AveryLP said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    nigel4england said:

    tim said:

    Slow learners

    @suttonnick: Observer front page - "Tories call for rapid Europe vote to halt Farage surge" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/iK9Y6MQbKz

    What is Ed's offering?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01s46vj/World_at_One_29_04_2013/

    Despair , incompentence , and evasion.
    There is a higher offering:

    Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his brother for his political life.
    Am I the only person who thinks better of Ed M for taking on his brother for the leadership I wonder?


    The Tories have never forgiven Ed for having beaten David.

    They believe in the hereditary principle. THe eldest should automatically get whatever he wants.

    Ed beat David fair and square according to the rules of the Labour Party.


  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    @kle

    Look at the polling evidence.

    Gay marriage, immigration, UKIP voting.
    All age defined.

    And London is age defined, and the white flight theorists have been looking at racial rather than age data.
    Same in the USA

    Boy George will solve the problem by introducing a summer cooling allowance for overheated pensioners.

  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    AveryLP said:

    kle4 said:

    AveryLP said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    nigel4england said:

    tim said:

    Slow learners

    @suttonnick: Observer front page - "Tories call for rapid Europe vote to halt Farage surge" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/iK9Y6MQbKz

    What is Ed's offering?


    If you want to know what EdM is offering ;

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01s46vj/World_at_One_29_04_2013/

    Despair , incompentence , and evasion.
    There is a higher offering:

    Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his brother for his political life.
    Am I the only person who thinks better of Ed M for taking on his brother for the leadership I wonder?

    Probably.
    If he thought he was the better candidate for leader, being too meek to say so would have been a failing, not a plus. He took a hard choice to, nominally, put party and country before family by saying he did think he would make a better choice than his big brother. Given how he must have known how his opponents would use that against him, it takes courage and determination to do that.

    None of this speaks to his actual worth on policy or as leadership material, but it is at least a small point in his favour I think. As UKIP might say, he has balls at least.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    itdoesntaddup said:

    kle4 said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Not been a good week for him, has it?

    Are you mad? It been near perfect as the PBtory spinners will no doubt tell you.

    One does wonder if even spinners have their limits though.

    Give them an over before lunch to try to break a partnership or see if the ball turns... If so, a long spell may ensue until the next new ball is taken.
    Bravo sir, expertly done (there's no like button at present)

  • roserees64
    roserees64 Posts: 251
    I think there should be an anti UKIP movement because UKIP has set back the cause of fairness by about 40 years.

    Having listened to some UKIP voters on the radio it seems that they are in favour of Secondary Modern Schools, because that's is what bringing back Grammar Schools implies

    Furthermore they are anti-Europe anti-immigration and pro-English Nationalism. In other words they are the BNP in suits.They also seem to be the Daily Mail readers incarnate, non graduates and older, and many live in towns which are on the margins of England.

    Nigel Farage may be affable but he lacks the coherence which national leadership demands.UKIP members are not clowns, they are dinosaurs who should be extinct in the 21st Century.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    tim said:

    @kle

    Look at the polling evidence.

    Gay marriage, immigration, UKIP voting.
    All age defined.

    And London is age defined, and the white flight theorists have been looking at racial rather than age data.
    Same in the USA

    Correlation between White British % 2011 and Tory vote % 2010?

    http://t.co/T3RsRfo64i
    http://t.co/VIluaaHWQN

  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    kle4 said:

    AveryLP said:

    kle4 said:

    AveryLP said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    nigel4england said:

    tim said:

    Slow learners

    @suttonnick: Observer front page - "Tories call for rapid Europe vote to halt Farage surge" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/iK9Y6MQbKz

    What is Ed's offering?


    If you want to know what EdM is offering ;

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01s46vj/World_at_One_29_04_2013/

    Despair , incompentence , and evasion.
    There is a higher offering:

    Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his brother for his political life.
    Am I the only person who thinks better of Ed M for taking on his brother for the leadership I wonder?

    Probably.
    If he thought he was the better candidate for leader, being too meek to say so would have been a failing, not a plus. He took a hard choice to, nominally, put party and country before family by saying he did think he would make a better choice than his big brother. Given how he must have known how his opponents would use that against him, it takes courage and determination to do that.

    None of this speaks to his actual worth on policy or as leadership material, but it is at least a small point in his favour I think. As UKIP might say, he has balls at least.
    I doubt having Balls is an advantage, kle4.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    AveryLP said:

    kle4 said:

    AveryLP said:

    kle4 said:

    AveryLP said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    nigel4england said:

    tim said:

    Slow learners

    @suttonnick: Observer front page - "Tories call for rapid Europe vote to halt Farage surge" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/iK9Y6MQbKz

    What is Ed's offering?


    If you want to know what EdM is offering ;

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01s46vj/World_at_One_29_04_2013/

    Despair , incompentence , and evasion.
    There is a higher offering:

    Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his brother for his political life.
    Am I the only person who thinks better of Ed M for taking on his brother for the leadership I wonder?

    Probably.
    If he thought he was the better candidate for leader, being too meek to say so would have been a failing, not a plus. He took a hard choice to, nominally, put party and country before family by saying he did think he would make a better choice than his big brother. Given how he must have known how his opponents would use that against him, it takes courage and determination to do that.

    None of this speaks to his actual worth on policy or as leadership material, but it is at least a small point in his favour I think. As UKIP might say, he has balls at least.
    I doubt having Balls is an advantage, kle4.
    True enough. I find him to be the Osborne of the Labour party. Eh, maybe it's just because they both talk finances, and I'm inclined to dislike that.

    What's fascinating is that, regardless of policy strengths of weakness, I find each terrible at presentation for completely different reasons.

  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    @avery

    Overheated pensioners in the Ritz?

    Aren't the strategists on the right fighting over that Alan Bennett scenario?

    I stopped taking any notice of Alan Bennett since he claimed that closing libraries is child abuse.

    And stop Puttin' on The Ritz. It is cheaper per night than an NHS hospital bed.

  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    @roserees64

    What's wrong with English nationalism? If Scottish, Welsh and Irish nationalism are okay, I can't see what the problem with the English variety is.
  • itdoesntaddup
    itdoesntaddup Posts: 58
    roserees64 said:

    I think there should be an anti UKIP movement because UKIP has set back the cause of fairness by about 40 years.

    Evidently you feel that none of Lib/Lab/Con/Green fit the bill to do that.

  • welshowl
    welshowl Posts: 4,464
    . As UKIP might say, he has balls at least.


    You missed the capital "B" out. ;-)
  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    I see Surbiton is making his usual unintelligible uninformed noises.

    Folkestone is 10 miles from Dover which happens to be one of the main gateways for European freight traffic coming into this country.That freight traffic travels right past Folkestone where the M20 starts is no doubt one of the locals greatest frustrations particularly given the danger many of these lorries provide. It is indeed the first stop for foreign traffic coming from Dover. That part of the M20 is also the carpark for Operation Stack everytime French dockers/ ferry workers etc etc go on strike. Access to and from the town is heavily impinged upon duringg such times. The volumes of European through traffic cannot be fathomed unless you live in the area, It is also the freight terminus for the Euro Rail services and it is also a ferry port in its own right. As a result it is on the front line of legal and illegal immigration from the French ferry ports. It is also surrounded by agricultural areas. How big the influx of European farm workers into the are is unclear. It won't be as big as that in Lincolnshire /Norfolk but I doubt it is insignificant.

    That just about every Kent coastal town from Romney in the south Kent coast to Sheppey on the north Kent coast threw out the incumbent Tory councillors replacing them with either UKIP or Labour (in Dover and Deals case although largely because UKIP split the right of centre vote) is in no small part I suspect down to its proximity to Europe and the locals concerns about immigration and the influence of EU. They are after all on the front line......
  • welshowl
    welshowl Posts: 4,464
    roserees64 said:

    I think there should be an anti UKIP movement because UKIP has set back the cause of fairness by about 40 years.

    Having listened to some UKIP voters on the radio it seems that they are in favour of Secondary Modern Schools, because that's is what bringing back Grammar Schools implies

    Furthermore they are anti-Europe anti-immigration and pro-English Nationalism. In other words they are the BNP in suits.They also seem to be the Daily Mail readers incarnate, non graduates and older, and many live in towns which are on the margins of England.

    Nigel Farage may be affable but he lacks the coherence which national leadership demands.UKIP members are not clowns, they are dinosaurs who should be extinct in the 21st Century.

    Define "fairness". I'm all for "fairness" in the sense of equality of opportunity in so far as is practicable, but equality of outcome in life is a non starter, as you remove incentive.

    I'm afraid bandying about "fairness" needs a tad more context IMO .
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Surbiton.

    "Ed beat David fair and square according to the rules of the Labour Party."

    And it's a decision which I believe will cost Labour an election which they really should win. I thought for a while he may come good but he hasn't. He's just not a leader and he should have been astute enough to realize that.
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    rcs1000 said:




    If that's true, why is it that UKIP has done disproportionately better in places with fewer European immigrants, and worse in places with more?

    In Lincolnshire that is certainly not true. UKIP won almost all its seats in those wards which have the highest number of EU immigrants.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    @roserees64
    The biggest load of rubbish, printed about UKIP, of the day.
    You are obviously either a dyed in the wool communist, trotskyite, or far gone militant labour or, or are you socialist workers party?
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    @tim

    And here's the converse relationship between White British % 2011 and Labour Vote % GE 2010:

    http://t.co/pCLnYtaY4U
    http://t.co/rURkWBal4B
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited May 2013
    Roger said:

    Surbiton.

    "Ed beat David fair and square according to the rules of the Labour Party."

    And it's a decision which I believe will cost Labour an election which they really should win. I thought for a while he may come good but he hasn't. He's just not a leader and he should have been astute enough to realize that.

    That might have been asking a bit much from anyone really, especially in his position. Good university, straight into politics, trusted with a safe seat and promoted rapidly at a young age - who wouldn't think themselves leadership material after that?

    Although quite why Cameron gets derided for thinking himself born to rule when to my mind Ed M and co appear as equally certain of that about themselves, I don't know, although possibly he gets more stick for it because he's posher. And he went to Eton, which may have been mentioned at some point since he became leader.
  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    @RoseRees64

    I think there should be an anti UKIP movement because UKIP has set back the cause of fairness by about 40 years.

    Well don't just sit there suggesting it why don't you start it yourself? This is a liberal democracy where freedom of speech is encouraged. I'm sure UKIP supporters would welcome your insightful intellectual analysis......

  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    rcs1000 said:




    If that's true, why is it that UKIP has done disproportionately better in places with fewer European immigrants, and worse in places with more?

    In Lincolnshire that is certainly not true. UKIP won almost all its seats in those wards which have the highest number of EU immigrants.
    It is displacement from the central hearth of London, Richard.

    The North Sea air more often numbs rather than refreshes the brain,
  • itdoesntaddup
    itdoesntaddup Posts: 58
    roserees64 said:



    Having listened to some UKIP voters on the radio it seems that they are in favour of Secondary Modern Schools, because that's is what bringing back Grammar Schools implies

    I'm no expert on UKIP education policy, but I'd be surprised if they viewed Grammars (which they clearly support, and which did provide a good education for bright children from poor backgrounds) as implying Secondary Moderns, which I think everyone agrees were a disaster.

  • itdoesntaddup
    itdoesntaddup Posts: 58
    tim said:

    @Sunil

    I took a bet with Sam today that UKIP would not win the white Londoner vote
    The white Flighters need to calm down

    Remember UKIP + BNP polled the same in 2009 as UKIP are now

    Last time I was in London, the range of languages spoken by ethnic whites was pretty broad. I certainly recognised several European languages, and several more Slav ones - with a good smattering of foreign Anglosphere accents thrown in.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AveryLP said:

    surbiton said:

    Story about NHS Helpline on Sky right now.

    A sad but totally inappropriate story too.

    The complainant's husband was dying of cancer, which he had been battling for five years. He start muscle spasms and needed an injection which "could only be administered by a qualified nurse".

    She spent half an hour on the phone after dialling 111. She reports a poor response, which is quite probably true, but the real question to be asked is why she called 111 in the first place. Surely the service is not there to deal with the circumstances described.

    Would be interested to hear from Dr. Sox on this.
    It sounds like it is this story:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1086730/widow-nhs-111-helpine-failed-dying-husband

    I cannot comment on the details of the case, but as the article states, concern has been expressed at the 111 line from a number of directions, including Dr Gerada the President of the GP's. In Leicester the implementation was deferred, so I have no direct experience.

  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    tim said:

    @kle

    I think the issue Tories have with Cameron is that he surrounds himself with people of the same background, not that his background is key to his ability.

    I'm sure that is certainly part of it, but surrounding oneself with people like yourself doesn't fit the 'born-to-rule' complaint, especially as most do it, unless there wasn't also some reverse snobbery at work by implying he thinks himself better able to rule because of his class and upbringing, rather than just thinking himself better able to rule (which all do, or else they wouldn't put themselves forward to the public as the best choice to rule).
  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    welshowl said:

    roserees64 said:



    Define "fairness". I'm all for "fairness" in the sense of equality of opportunity in so far as is practicable, but equality of outcome in life is a non starter, as you remove incentive.

    I'm afraid bandying about "fairness" needs a tad more context IMO .

    Fairness is in the eye of the recipient. One person's fairness is generally the next person's injustice.

    In a political sense I believe that 'Fairness' is the left's latest buzzword for 'Doing everything that the left tells you and doing everything for the left's benefit'
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    @kle

    I think the issue Tories have with Cameron is that he surrounds himself with people of the same background, not that his background is key to his ability.

    What I love about the "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists" comment is the way in which Nick Ferrrari got Cameron to drop his guard as if he were back at his Notting Hill dining table among friends. There is a pause and then in an almost conspiratorial tone, Cameron fires off the attack.

    If only he would let down his guard more often, He would be far more eloquent and entertaining. And it might just stop him calling everything "incredible" too.

    Here is the audio boo: http://www.lbc.co.uk/david-cameron-ukip-fruitcakes-and-loonies-63456

    The comment was never scripted or pre-planned. It just rolled off the tongue SeanT style.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    itdoesntaddup said:

    tim said:

    @Sunil

    I took a bet with Sam today that UKIP would not win the white Londoner vote
    The white Flighters need to calm down

    Remember UKIP + BNP polled the same in 2009 as UKIP are now

    Last time I was in London, the range of languages spoken by ethnic whites was pretty broad. I certainly recognised several European languages, and several more Slav ones - with a good smattering of foreign Anglosphere accents thrown in.

    And the same thing is happening in London that happened in New York 100 years ago.

    Any insight into why Labour didn't do too well in those westminster seats in London and the West Midlands with higher % White British at GE 2010? (graphs already posted)
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    smithersjones2013 said:

    I see Surbiton is making his usual unintelligible uninformed noises.

    Folkestone is 10 miles from Dover which happens to be one of the main gateways for European freight traffic coming into this country.That freight traffic travels right past Folkestone where the M20 starts is no doubt one of the locals greatest frustrations particularly given the danger many of these lorries provide. It is indeed the first stop for foreign traffic coming from Dover. That part of the M20 is also the carpark for Operation Stack everytime French dockers/ ferry workers etc etc go on strike. Access to and from the town is heavily impinged upon duringg such times. The volumes of European through traffic cannot be fathomed unless you live in the area, It is also the freight terminus for the Euro Rail services and it is also a ferry port in its own right. As a result it is on the front line of legal and illegal immigration from the French ferry ports. It is also surrounded by agricultural areas. How big the influx of European farm workers into the are is unclear. It won't be as big as that in Lincolnshire /Norfolk but I doubt it is insignificant.

    That just about every Kent coastal town from Romney in the south Kent coast to Sheppey on the north Kent coast threw out the incumbent Tory councillors replacing them with either UKIP or Labour (in Dover and Deals case although largely because UKIP split the right of centre vote) is in no small part I suspect down to its proximity to Europe and the locals concerns about immigration and the influence of EU. They are after all on the front line......

    So you are saying that the Tories should bang on about Europe and immigrants more. Please do.
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    foxinsoxuk said:

    AveryLP said:

    surbiton said:

    Story about NHS Helpline on Sky right now.

    A sad but totally inappropriate story too.

    The complainant's husband was dying of cancer, which he had been battling for five years. He start muscle spasms and needed an injection which "could only be administered by a qualified nurse".

    She spent half an hour on the phone after dialling 111. She reports a poor response, which is quite probably true, but the real question to be asked is why she called 111 in the first place. Surely the service is not there to deal with the circumstances described.

    Would be interested to hear from Dr. Sox on this.
    It sounds like it is this story:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1086730/widow-nhs-111-helpine-failed-dying-husband

    I cannot comment on the details of the case, but as the article states, concern has been expressed at the 111 line from a number of directions, including Dr Gerada the President of the GP's. In Leicester the implementation was deferred, so I have no direct experience.

    It is that story.

    You are beginning to sound like a politician, Dr. Sox!
  • MrJones
    MrJones Posts: 3,523
    Schools need a minimum level of discipline to function.
    That discipline can come from the kids themselves or be imposed by the school.
    Kids in leafy areas bring in more self-discipline than kids from wuff areas.
    ergo schools in wuff areas need more imposed discipline than schools in leafy areas

    Hippy educationalists thought different hence the collapse of the education system in wuff areas starting as far back as the 70s

    This was partially compensated for by the armed forces providing a shouting-based basic education and trade school for boisterous boys which was muffed up by civilianization i.e. transport corps, catering corps etc.

    So good education spin
    1) grammars - don't care about that personally but obviously some people do
    2) more discipline in schools (would require big war with education establishment to actually implement of course)
    3) killing two birds with one stone by using the defense budget partly as a shouting-based trade school
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Paywall

    THE UKIP treasurer says its leadership would rather deal with Boris Johnson than with David Cameron in the run-up to the next election.

    Stuart Wheeler, the multimillionaire former Tory donor, said it was “much more likely” that his party could work with the mayor of London than the prime minister on a potential pact in certain constituencies in the 2015 general election.

    Nigel Farage’s party does not trust Cameron to deliver a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU and believes Johnson is a truer Eurosceptic.

    “If Boris Johnson’s policies were acceptable, which I think on the whole they would be, I would be happy to do that [a deal],” Wheeler said. He suggested that if Johnson became Tory leader, there would be significant potential for talks between the two parties. UKIP insiders indicated last night that Farage shared Wheeler’s view.
  • itdoesntaddup
    itdoesntaddup Posts: 58
    tim said:

    itdoesntaddup said:

    tim said:

    @Sunil

    I took a bet with Sam today that UKIP would not win the white Londoner vote
    The white Flighters need to calm down

    Remember UKIP + BNP polled the same in 2009 as UKIP are now

    Last time I was in London, the range of languages spoken by ethnic whites was pretty broad. I certainly recognised several European languages, and several more Slav ones - with a good smattering of foreign Anglosphere accents thrown in.

    And the same thing is happening in London that happened in New York 100 years ago.

    Heathrow = Ellis Island?
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    itdoesntaddup said:

    roserees64 said:



    Having listened to some UKIP voters on the radio it seems that they are in favour of Secondary Modern Schools, because that's is what bringing back Grammar Schools implies

    I'm no expert on UKIP education policy, but I'd be surprised if they viewed Grammars (which they clearly support, and which did provide a good education for bright children from poor backgrounds) as implying Secondary Moderns, which I think everyone agrees were a disaster.

    itdoesntaddup said:

    roserees64 said:



    Having listened to some UKIP voters on the radio it seems that they are in favour of Secondary Modern Schools, because that's is what bringing back Grammar Schools implies

    I'm no expert on UKIP education policy, but I'd be surprised if they viewed Grammars (which they clearly support, and which did provide a good education for bright children from poor backgrounds) as implying Secondary Moderns, which I think everyone agrees were a disaster.

    If there are selective schools in an area, then the other schools become secondary moderns, in fact if not in name. They are automatically not comprehensives.

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Peter Kellner in the Sunday Times

    YouGov’s latest poll for The Sunday Times offers a glimmer of hope. The feelgood factor is improving. This weekend, for the first time since Cameron became prime minister, more than half the public expect to be at least as well off in a year’s time as they are today. Earlier in the coalition’s life the pessimists outnumbered by two to one the combined ranks of optimists and those who expected things to remain much the same.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AveryLP said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    AveryLP said:

    surbiton said:

    Story about NHS Helpline on Sky right now.

    A sad but totally inappropriate story too.

    The complainant's husband was dying of cancer, which he had been battling for five years. He start muscle spasms and needed an injection which "could only be administered by a qualified nurse".

    She spent half an hour on the phone after dialling 111. She reports a poor response, which is quite probably true, but the real question to be asked is why she called 111 in the first place. Surely the service is not there to deal with the circumstances described.

    Would be interested to hear from Dr. Sox on this.
    It sounds like it is this story:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1086730/widow-nhs-111-helpine-failed-dying-husband

    I cannot comment on the details of the case, but as the article states, concern has been expressed at the 111 line from a number of directions, including Dr Gerada the President of the GP's. In Leicester the implementation was deferred, so I have no direct experience.

    It is that story.

    You are beginning to sound like a politician, Dr. Sox!
    You may think that, I could not comment!
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    Some present and future guests of Her Majesty might beg to differ.
    Roger said:

    Surbiton.

    "Ed beat David fair and square according to the rules of the Labour Party."

    And it's a decision which I believe will cost Labour an election which they really should win. I thought for a while he may come good but he hasn't. He's just not a leader and he should have been astute enough to realize that.

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Also from the YouGov/Peter Kellner piece

    He (Ed Milliband) has a mountain to climb: our latest poll shows that, by two to one, voters think he is not up to the job of being prime minister.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Also by Peter Kellner

    The Lib Dems must forget any notions of mounting a full nationwide campaign in 2015. Instead they must concentrate on the seats they hold and on minimising their losses. There were signs in last week’s elections that their vote had held up better where it mattered most.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited May 2013
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Peter Kellner in the Sunday Times

    YouGov’s latest poll for The Sunday Times offers a glimmer of hope. The feelgood factor is improving. This weekend, for the first time since Cameron became prime minister, more than half the public expect to be at least as well off in a year’s time as they are today. Earlier in the coalition’s life the pessimists outnumbered by two to one the combined ranks of optimists and those who expected things to remain much the same.

    Cameron won't get any credit for that. This far into a recession I think most people would generally expect to finally start seeing a recovery regardless of what was happening, and considering Osborne, no one is likely to think it is happening thanks to him and his comrades.

    Except Avery.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    The Tories need a leader from an ordinary background but I don't think they're likely to have one in the future because the party has a dearth of talent from that source due to lack of numbers. The last chance was probably with David Davis but he's 65 now. And Theresa May is a bit too abrasive.
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    @kle

    I think the issue Tories have with Cameron is that he surrounds himself with people of the same background, not that his background is key to his ability.

    I'm sure that is certainly part of it, but surrounding oneself with people like yourself doesn't fit the 'born-to-rule' complaint, especially as most do it, unless there wasn't also some reverse snobbery at work by implying he thinks himself better able to rule because of his class and upbringing, rather than just thinking himself better able to rule (which all do, or else they wouldn't put themselves forward to the public as the best choice to rule).
    It's even more nuanced than that. Cameron's problem is manifold. Yes he's an aspiring toff with an even posher wife, who clearly prefers toffs as colleagues. Yes, he seems to believe that toffs are just *better* at governing, or at least he fatally gives that impression.

    But his real sin is worse. Fairly obviously, and very sincerely, Cameron dislikes and despises large sections of the traditional Tory party, from working class white Tories to conservatives in the shires, and he would far rather hang out with Helena Bonham Carter than any average Tory activist or MP, or indeed any average human: he's a quintessential metropolitan poseur.

    This is the *issue* with David Cameron. In this, he resembles Tony Blair, and Blair's relationship to Labour. With the significant difference that Tony Blair was electorally very successful.


    But Sean, calling kippers "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists" doesn't mean you despise them any more than the rhetorical abuse you throw at opponents on PB demonstrates hatred.

    Ironic and satirical detachment is all that is required. I am sure Hogarth and Swift loved their subjects,

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    49% of voters agree Ken Clarke's description of UKIP as clowns was unfair

    77% of voters think it was bad tactics to Label UKIP as clowns.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    Selective education always exists. The only difference is whether it's based on wealth or ability.

    Before grammar schools were abolished, it was based on ability. Now it's based on whether you can afford it or not. You can either pay for it directly, or indirectly by buying a house in the catchment area of a top school.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited May 2013
    What would you like to see at the next election

    Majority Lab government 31%

    Majority Con government 29%

    Lab/Lib coalition 14%

    Con/Lib coalition 6%

    Don't knows 20%
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    Strange. I thought BJ was a great fan of allowing (rich) foreigners to settle in London.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Paywall

    THE UKIP treasurer says its leadership would rather deal with Boris Johnson than with David Cameron in the run-up to the next election.

    Stuart Wheeler, the multimillionaire former Tory donor, said it was “much more likely” that his party could work with the mayor of London than the prime minister on a potential pact in certain constituencies in the 2015 general election.

    Nigel Farage’s party does not trust Cameron to deliver a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU and believes Johnson is a truer Eurosceptic.

    “If Boris Johnson’s policies were acceptable, which I think on the whole they would be, I would be happy to do that [a deal],” Wheeler said. He suggested that if Johnson became Tory leader, there would be significant potential for talks between the two parties. UKIP insiders indicated last night that Farage shared Wheeler’s view.

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    53% Cameron has handled the rise of UKIP badly

    18% say he has handled it well.
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    Where has my post gone? I just spent ages tapping out a betting post & it's nowhere to be seen.

  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    test
  • welshowl
    welshowl Posts: 4,464
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    53% Cameron has handled the rise of UKIP badly

    18% say he has handled it well.

    18% then need to be kept away from sharp cutlery for their own safety.
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2013
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also by Peter Kellner

    The Lib Dems must forget any notions of mounting a full nationwide campaign in 2015. Instead they must concentrate on the seats they hold and on minimising their losses. There were signs in last week’s elections that their vote had held up better where it mattered most.

    Nick Robinson reported that no LD MPs visited the South Shields by-election. I assume they were all working their constituencies in the locals. So they're already on board with the "all hands repel borders" strategy.

  • itdoesntaddup
    itdoesntaddup Posts: 58
    edited May 2013
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also from the YouGov/Peter Kellner piece

    He (Ed Milliband) has a mountain to climb: our latest poll shows that, by two to one, voters think he is not up to the job of being prime minister.


    It's probably as well that YouGov doesn't run a poll on whether his (Kellner's) wife is up to her job.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    "The Lib Dems must forget any notions of mounting a full nationwide campaign in 2015. Instead they must concentrate on the seats they hold and on minimising their losses. There were signs in last week’s elections that their vote had held up better where it mattered most."

    Yes, in my patch they only lost a few, but just over the border in Wiltshire the LDs actually increased their seat numbers on 2009 (which had been even lower due to defections since then) despite a loss to UKIP (the only one in the county) and what was according to Wiki about a 50% drop in total votes (partly down to fewer candidates standing I think). The Chippenham bloke will need to count on that resilience for one, and it could prevent a total meltdown for them at GE.

    That they may as well save their precious funds and not stand anywhere in Scotland where they do not have an incumbent, and the same for Northern England, in order to not lose their deposits, is deeply sad for a party with dreams of nationwide significance though.

    There's little point in throwing everything at a seat you have no chance of winning, but it'd be nice to at least place well, and have dreams of one day winning it.
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Peter Kellner in the Sunday Times

    YouGov’s latest poll for The Sunday Times offers a glimmer of hope. The feelgood factor is improving. This weekend, for the first time since Cameron became prime minister, more than half the public expect to be at least as well off in a year’s time as they are today. Earlier in the coalition’s life the pessimists outnumbered by two to one the combined ranks of optimists and those who expected things to remain much the same.

    Cameron won't get any credit for that. This far into a recession I think most people would generally expect to finally start seeing a recovery regardless of what was happening, and considering Osborne, no one is likely to think it is happening thanks to him and his comrades.

    Except Avery.
    Consumer confidence always lags early economic indicators, and is not always driven by quantitative progress.

    On standard of living, no one is promising that this will improve significantly during this government, The Bank of England has consistently stated that real standards of living will fall over a decade from the financial crisis and reach a fall of up to 20% before starting to recover

    What you need to explain with the current recovery is why the UK economy is growing faster than expectations at a time when the Eurozone is in deepening recession and the growth forecasts for China, Japan and the US are all being cut back.

    Of course, it can't be anything to do with Osborne.

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Vince Cable has written a piece in the Sunday Times motoring section, headlined

    Cable: I’m liberal with speed limits
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited May 2013
    @itdoesntaddup
    It's probably as well that YouGov doesn't run a poll on whether his (Kellner's) wife is up to her job.
    LOL.
  • MrJones
    MrJones Posts: 3,523
    tim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Selective education always exists. The only difference is whether it's based on wealth or ability.

    Before grammar schools were abolished, it was based on ability. Now it's based on whether you can afford it or not. You can either pay for it directly, or indirectly by buying a house in the catchment area of a top school.

    And the staggering thing about Londons improvement is that kids on free school meals outperform kids not on free school meals outside London

    Almost too good to be true.
  • itdoesntaddup
    itdoesntaddup Posts: 58
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Peter Kellner in the Sunday Times

    YouGov’s latest poll for The Sunday Times offers a glimmer of hope. The feelgood factor is improving. This weekend, for the first time since Cameron became prime minister, more than half the public expect to be at least as well off in a year’s time as they are today.

    I'm not quite clear whether Kellner fears a Labour government or the rise of UKIP that he should now show support for Cameron.
  • MrJones
    MrJones Posts: 3,523
    SeanT said:

    Had lunch with lefty friends. I can report complete perplexity, bordering anger, at the rise of UKIP. They simply don't understand it.

    It does not compute. They expected any major protest vote to go Left. Heh.

    They also mistrust Ed Miliband, and hanker after David. And they have no fecking clue about economics.

    If the BBC told the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth the vote for Ukip would both be fully understood and doubled.
  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    @kle

    I think the issue Tories have with Cameron is that he surrounds himself with people of the same background, not that his background is key to his ability.

    I'm sure that is certainly part of it, but surrounding oneself with people like yourself doesn't fit the 'born-to-rule' complaint, especially as most do it, unless there wasn't also some reverse snobbery at work by implying he thinks himself better able to rule because of his class and upbringing, rather than just thinking himself better able to rule (which all do, or else they wouldn't put themselves forward to the public as the best choice to rule).
    It's even more nuanced than that. Cameron's problem is manifold. Yes he's an aspiring toff with an even posher wife, who clearly prefers toffs as colleagues. Yes, he seems to believe that toffs are just *better* at governing, or at least he fatally gives that impression.

    But his real sin is worse. Fairly obviously, and very sincerely, Cameron dislikes and despises large sections of the traditional Tory party, from working class white Tories to conservatives in the shires, and he would far rather hang out with Helena Bonham Carter than any average Tory activist or MP, or indeed any average human: he's a quintessential metropolitan poseur.

    This is the *issue* with David Cameron. In this, he resembles Tony Blair, and Blair's relationship to Labour. With the significant difference that Tony Blair was electorally very successful.


    Well they say clones degrade over each generation......

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    The Sunday Times have done extensive pieces on the YouGov polling, but in 6 different articles not once have they mentioned the VI.
  • itdoesntaddup
    itdoesntaddup Posts: 58
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Vince Cable has written a piece in the Sunday Times motoring section, headlined

    Cable: I’m liberal with speed limits



    How many milligrams a day does he recommend? Is that what he's on these days?
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    anotherDave said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also by Peter Kellner

    The Lib Dems must forget any notions of mounting a full nationwide campaign in 2015. Instead they must concentrate on the seats they hold and on minimising their losses. There were signs in last week’s elections that their vote had held up better where it mattered most.

    Nick Robinson reported that no LD MPs visited the South Shields by-election. I assume they were all working their constituencies in the locals. So they're already on board with "all hands repel borders" strategy.

    MPs from urban areas, Scotland and Wales do not have that excuse do they?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited May 2013
    AveryLP said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Peter Kellner in the Sunday Times

    YouGov’s latest poll for The Sunday Times offers a glimmer of hope. The feelgood factor is improving. This weekend, for the first time since Cameron became prime minister, more than half the public expect to be at least as well off in a year’s time as they are today. Earlier in the coalition’s life the pessimists outnumbered by two to one the combined ranks of optimists and those who expected things to remain much the same.

    Cameron won't get any credit for that. This far into a recession I think most people would generally expect to finally start seeing a recovery regardless of what was happening, and considering Osborne, no one is likely to think it is happening thanks to him and his comrades.

    Except Avery.
    Consumer confidence always lags early economic indicators, and is not always driven by quantitative progress.

    On standard of living, no one is promising that this will improve significantly during this government, The Bank of England has consistently stated that real standards of living will fall over a decade from the financial crisis and reach a fall of up to 20% before starting to recover

    What you need to explain with the current recovery is how the UK economy is growing faster than expectations at a time when the Eurozone is in deepening recession and the growth forecasts for China, Japan and the US are all being cut back.

    Of course, it can't be anything to do with Osborne.

    I will freely admit I do not understand economics, so for all I know it really is down to Osborne. What I do know is you will not convince the majority of the public of that, because he's developed an aura of incompetence such that even when he does a good job, any praise will be begrudging or put down to coincidence, or that he did well, but someone else would have done much better (an similar example would be the grief Cameron got for not getting a majority, even though he did gain a huge number of MPs and ended up PM)

    On standard of living, no one is promising that this will improve significantly during this government, The Bank of England has consistently stated that real standards of living will fall over a decade from the financial crisis and reach a fall of up to 20% before starting to recover

    And what will they predict the fall will be next year I wonder.

    Have we shifted the deficit elimination target from 2018 to 2020 yet? I managed to predict the shift from 2017 to 2018 after they first pushed back the target due to lower than expected growth, so await the next revision.

    What you need to explain with the current recovery is how the UK economy is growing faster than expectations
    Even not understanding economics this phrase makes me suspicious though. Faster than whose expections? And when were they made? Expectations are easier to meet faster than, well, expected, when you have revised them downwards consistently for years (justifiably or not).

    If I predicted 50 LD seat losses in the locals a year ago, and then 500 losses a week ago, it would clearly have been a very positive sign that the real loss ended up being so much better than my expectations, wouldn't it?


  • smithersjones2013
    smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    AndyJS said:

    Selective education always exists. The only difference is whether it's based on wealth or ability.

    Before grammar schools were abolished, it was based on ability. Now it's based on whether you can afford it or not. You can either pay for it directly, or indirectly by buying a house in the catchment area of a top school.

    I know that both Tories and Labour wrought havoc with Grammer School netrwork but there are at least 4 areas where they still exist in England. Lincolnshire, Kent, Bucks & Trafford

  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited May 2013
    SeanT said:

    Had lunch with lefty friends. I can report complete perplexity, bordering anger, at the rise of UKIP. They simply don't understand it.

    It does not compute. They expected any major protest vote to go Left. Heh.

    They also mistrust Ed Miliband, and hanker after David. And they have no fecking clue about economics.

    Always been interested to know this Sean. When you have lunch/dinner with your lefty friends do you get as angry with them as you do with Roger, Tim and Nick Palmer at times?

    Have you ever launched into a SeanT rant, PB style, over a spaghetti bolognase? ;)

  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    AndyJS said:

    @roserees64

    What's wrong with English nationalism? If Scottish, Welsh and Irish nationalism are okay, I can't see what the problem with the English variety is.

    Personally I think nationalism of all kinds is unpleasant, but especially in large countries able to throw their weight about (Andorran nationalism might be rather endearing). But people understand different things by the term - I think of it as meaning "Favour the interests of your own nation over others, regardless of justification or fairness", but others mean "Take pride in your country's traditions while wishing no harm to others", which I'd be fine with. The tendency of aggressive far-right movements, past and present, to kidnap the term messes up the discussion.
  • itdoesntaddup
    itdoesntaddup Posts: 58
    tim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Selective education always exists. The only difference is whether it's based on wealth or ability.

    Before grammar schools were abolished, it was based on ability. Now it's based on whether you can afford it or not. You can either pay for it directly, or indirectly by buying a house in the catchment area of a top school.

    And the staggering thing about Londons improvement is that kids on free school meals outperform kids not on free school meals outside London

    That has to be down to the staggering increase in London house prices...

  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories need a leader from an ordinary background but I don't think they're likely to have one in the future because the party has a dearth of talent from that source due to lack of numbers. The last chance was probably with David Davis but he's 65 now. And Theresa May is a bit too abrasive.

    A Tory party led by a plausible, persuasive working class leader - with all the present Tory policies intact and unchanged - would romp home to a fairly easy victory against Ed Miliband and Ed Balls.

    On the other hand, a Labour party led by a plausible persuasive man or woman not called Ed would probably thrash the present Tory party.

    It is intriguing that both major parties have crippled themselves with flawed and feeble leadership at precisely the same time. Maybe it is a generational thing? Maybe this generation of politicians, of all stripes, is just a bit shit?
    As a youngish person bitter at future prospects, maybe the problem is the entire generation is shit?

    Sorry over 40s.

    And with that nonserious parting shot, a good night to all.

  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    Talk about Tories shooting themselves in the foot:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10037822/Why-did-voters-turn-to-Ukip-in-parts-of-true-blue-Lincolnshire.html

    Eddy Poll, the Tory deputy leader of Lincolnshire council, admits in the article to helping to deliver leaflets for his friend Richard Fairman who happened to be UKIP candidate in his seat of Spalding East.

    Fairman defeated Poll by 923 votes to 870.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Stuart Wheeler in the Sunday Times

    “We could get 100 seats at the next general election.”
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Stuart Wheeler in the Sunday Times

    “We could get 100 seats at the next general election.”

    I guess Farage will be playing the cautious optimism to Wheeler's insane expectations strategy. Good call, Can't have the leader make the most bold prediction.


  • itdoesntaddup
    itdoesntaddup Posts: 58


    It's even more nuanced than that. Cameron's problem is manifold. Yes he's an aspiring toff with an even posher wife, who clearly prefers toffs as colleagues. Yes, he seems to believe that toffs are just *better* at governing, or at least he fatally gives that impression.

    But his real sin is worse. Fairly obviously, and very sincerely, Cameron dislikes and despises large sections of the traditional Tory party, from working class white Tories to conservatives in the shires, and he would far rather hang out with Helena Bonham Carter than any average Tory activist or MP, or indeed any average human: he's a quintessential metropolitan poseur.

    Cameron would be much better if he were a proper toff. Such people tend not to need that kind of support, and might actually know something of the lives of the people who live on the estate.


  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    YouGov net leadership ratings

    Cameron minus 23

    Miliband minus 28

    Clegg minus 54
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    GIN1138 said:

    SeanT said:

    Had lunch with lefty friends. I can report complete perplexity, bordering anger, at the rise of UKIP. They simply don't understand it.

    It does not compute. They expected any major protest vote to go Left. Heh.

    They also mistrust Ed Miliband, and hanker after David. And they have no fecking clue about economics.

    Always been interested to know this Sean. When you have lunch/dinner with your lefty friends do you get as angry with them as you do with Roger, Tim and Nick Palmer at times?

    Have you ever launched into a SeanT rant, PB style, over a spaghetti bolognase? ;)

    Do you imagine, GIN, that the personas posters here portray are exactly the same as in real life?

    This famous New Yorker cartoon reflects the reality rather more closely, I suspect.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/f8/Internet_dog.jpg

  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2013
    foxinsoxuk said:

    anotherDave said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also by Peter Kellner

    The Lib Dems must forget any notions of mounting a full nationwide campaign in 2015. Instead they must concentrate on the seats they hold and on minimising their losses. There were signs in last week’s elections that their vote had held up better where it mattered most.

    Nick Robinson reported that no LD MPs visited the South Shields by-election. I assume they were all working their constituencies in the locals. So they're already on board with "all hands repel borders" strategy.

    MPs from urban areas, Scotland and Wales do not have that excuse do they?
    Fair point. Still, looks like Mr Kellner's right. LDs are putting 100% effort into defense.

    EDIT
    Which would help UKIP in a Ribble Valley by-election.

  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Sunday Times have done extensive pieces on the YouGov polling, but in 6 different articles not once have they mentioned the VI.

    It's presumably a 10ish lead because the "preferred government" question gives a 45-35 edge to Labour-led. But if there was a huge UKIP bounce as one would expect after all the coverage, you'd think it'd be a story.

    My theory, pace SeanT, is that there is nothing remarkable about the populist right movement getting 10-15% in polls - there is a latent 10% or so who quite fancy each extreme in most countries, though FPTP usually suppresses it in Britain. However, there's also a ceiling on people willing to embrace wild-eyed populism, and they may be reaching it.

  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Paywall

    THE UKIP treasurer says its leadership would rather deal with Boris Johnson than with David Cameron in the run-up to the next election.

    Stuart Wheeler, the multimillionaire former Tory donor, said it was “much more likely” that his party could work with the mayor of London than the prime minister on a potential pact in certain constituencies in the 2015 general election.

    Nigel Farage’s party does not trust Cameron to deliver a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU and believes Johnson is a truer Eurosceptic.

    “If Boris Johnson’s policies were acceptable, which I think on the whole they would be, I would be happy to do that [a deal],” Wheeler said. He suggested that if Johnson became Tory leader, there would be significant potential for talks between the two parties. UKIP insiders indicated last night that Farage shared Wheeler’s view.

    There is a lot of guff now going around that UKIP will, sometime in the near future make a pact with a suitable Tory leader and all will be well in Toryland. Politics will get back to normal and all will be well with the world.

    Don't believe a word of it! UKIP members wont allow it to happen. The vast majority of kippers, from what I'm reading and discussing want UKIP to be a replacement party to the Tories, not a junior partner to the old and degraded conservatives.

  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    SeanT said:



    Friends are more important than politics.

    That's the truth. :)
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Stuart Wheeler in the Sunday Times

    “We could get 100 seats at the next general election.”

    Has Wheeler gone crazy?

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Research by YouGov, the Sunday Times pollster, found the UKIP leader is regarded by voters as “a genuine person with genuine opinions” who “speaks his mind” and “knows what the country wants”. The man dismissed as an anachronistic golf club bore by the Westminster sophisticates is liked because he is a character. The voters, rightly or wrongly, think he has principles — and sticks to them.
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