I'm going to hell, I laughed at the phrase "Detectives from Lancashire Police swooped on Mr Evans’ cottage in the Lancashire village of Pendleton this morning"
"Under first past the post there is no point whatsoever in putting any effort at all into seats where you are not in contention and are never likely to be in contention."
The obvious rebuttal is that if you never put in effort, of course you're never bloody likely to be in contention!
There is no way, none, that the admitted fact that piling in resources into areas where you are weak is not sensible when resources are limited, in any way makes it somehow ok for a party to be utterly obliterated in large swathes of areas, because it's not like they were going to win, you know, so having any voters in that area at all is clearly a complete waste, so why not just effing celebrate that there is no hope of one day increasing support there?
In fact, let's just tell people considering voting one way which has no hope of winning a seat, to stop doing it, you fools, they'll never win there so stop being pathetic. Move to an area which matches your politics, silly voter.
Difficult to bring extra shame on a seat represented by David Waddington, looks like Evans may be having a go.
No charges yet, tim.
The key question appears to me how rape can be committed over a period of time (Brunt a little confused over this but it appeared to be a period of years)?
Are we talking two incidents or a series of incidents with two victims.
Conservative Nigel Evans 26,298 50.3 +5.4 Labour Paul Foster 11,529 22.0 −7.8 Liberal Democrat Allan Knox 10,732 20.5 −2.1 UKIP Stephen Rush 3,496 6.7 +4.0
Conservative Nigel Evans 26,298 50.3 +5.4 Labour Paul Foster 11,529 22.0 −7.8 Liberal Democrat Allan Knox 10,732 20.5 −2.1 UKIP Stephen Rush 3,496 6.7 +4.0
I was just going to suggest that. Great minds and all that.............
Conservative Nigel Evans 26,298 50.3 +5.4 Labour Paul Foster 11,529 22.0 −7.8 Liberal Democrat Allan Knox 10,732 20.5 −2.1 UKIP Stephen Rush 3,496 6.7 +4.0
Andrea posted recent results from the locals on the last thread.
Difficult to bring extra shame on a seat represented by David Waddington, looks like Evans may be having a go.
No charges yet, tim.
The key question appears to me how rape can be committed over a period of time (Brunt a little confused over this but it appeared to be a period of years)?
Are we talking two incidents or a series of incidents with two victims.
Odd.
Perhaps Tim could explain the Waddington reference, According to Wiki Waddington's defence team blundered badly in the case of Stephen Kiszko but why does that refect on the constituency?
Difficult to bring extra shame on a seat represented by David Waddington, looks like Evans may be having a go.
No charges yet, tim.
The key question appears to me how rape can be committed over a period of time (Brunt a little confused over this but it appeared to be a period of years)?
Are we talking two incidents or a series of incidents with two victims.
Odd.
Maybe a recent accusation leading to an older one being made/taken more seriously.
Perhaps the Conservatives should draft Mr Tebbit as their candidate in Ribble, then they could follow up with a leadership election if the voters sent him to Westminster! :-)
The British National Party has urged its members to procreate after it lost every seat it contested in the English local elections on Thursday.
The BNP fielded 99 candidates but did not win a seat. It lost the one county council seat it held in Lancashire, leaving Nick Griffin's party with just two councillors.
In a post on the party's website, members are urged to have bigger families to counter large families had by non-Britons.
There seems to be a load of inconsistency re when police release details of who has been arrested. Bill Roache's name only came out after he was charged.Only this week a Police Inspector being queastioned over fraud in the Force had his name protected by the polkice on the grounds that he had not been charged. Today Evans' name is plastered all over the media and yet he haas not actually been charged. We do need a consistent approach by the Police on this , otherwise they could be seen as acting in a biased way or carrying out theor own agenda.
There seems to be a load of inconsistency re when police release details of who has been arrested. Bill Roache's name only came out after he was charged.Only this week a Police Inspector being queastioned over fraud in the Force had his name protected by the polkice on the grounds that he had not been charged. Today Evans' name is plastered all over the media and yet he haas not actually been charged. We do need a consistent approach by the Police on this , otherwise they could be seen as acting in a biased way or carrying out theor own agenda.
Warwickshire police changed their policy, and did name the ex officer in the end
Farage would surely run in the south east. He's from Westerham which is in Sevenoaks and therefore a bit too Tory. But heading west to the Kent coast or south to the retirement towns of Sussex, he'd likely get a victory.
Farage will not run in a by-election. A by-election, especially one where there is focus on UKIP (as there would be in a hypothetical by-election in Ribble Valley) is an opportunity to give media exposure to other new faces in the party, as happens with Diane James and to a lesser extent Jane Collins and Richard Elvin.
Further, if Farage gets in he has to quit as an MEP, meaning he will be hedging a lot on being re-elected at the General Election in less than two years, a big gamble. If he waits till the General Election he will still be an MEP if he fails and probably have 4-5 years in Parliament at least if he succeeds.
Farage standing as a candidate now would be a terrible blunder for UKIP.
Difficult to bring extra shame on a seat represented by David Waddington, looks like Evans may be having a go.
No charges yet, tim.
The key question appears to me how rape can be committed over a period of time (Brunt a little confused over this but it appeared to be a period of years)?
Are we talking two incidents or a series of incidents with two victims.
Odd.
Maybe a recent accusation leading to an older one being made/taken more seriously.
The Mirror article linked to below is more specific than the Sky News report:
On the tiime period in which the offences were alleged to have been committed:
“The offences are alleged to have been committed in Pendleton between July 2009 and March 2013.
On the linkage between the two alleged victims:
Two men are believed to have made the allegations and given statements about the sex attacks to police last week.
A source said: “The two men went to police claiming that Nigel had attacked them. It came as a bolt from the blue when police turned up at his door yesterday morning and arrested him.
Still important to treat all unofficial sources of information as speculative.
Ribble Valley should be a big test for " One Nation " EdMillionaire. If he can't bag this one , he'll never be PM.
People say that about every blooming By-election. For very difficult ones, they at least qualify it as 'if they don't get at least x, it's a failure', to try and make the failure of another party seen lesser.
Farage will not run in a by-election. A by-election, especially one where there is focus on UKIP (as there would be in a hypothetical by-election in Ribble Valley) is an opportunity to give media exposure to other new faces in the party, as happens with Diane James and to a lesser extent Jane Collins and Richard Elvin.
Further, if Farage gets in he has to quit as an MEP, meaning he will be hedging a lot on being re-elected at the General Election in less than two years, a big gamble. If he waits till the General Election he will still be an MEP if he fails and probably have 4-5 years in Parliament at least if he succeeds.
Farage standing as a candidate now would be a terrible blunder for UKIP.
Expect to see stories about him 'bottling it' if he doesn't nevertheless.
Ribble Valley NE Con 1970 UKIP 845 Lab 574 LD 231 Ribble Valley SW Con 2129 Lab 565 LD 236 Clitheroe: Con 1061 No Descr (UKIP 2010 GE candidate) 1016 LD 932 Lab 378 Longridge with Bowland: Con 1932 Lab 626 LD 207
South Ribble District divsions
Bamber Bridge & Walton-le-Dale: Lab 1151 Con 1120 UKIP 594 Farington: Con 980 Lab 958 UKIP 499 LD 107 South Ribble Rural East: Con 1288 Lab 616 UKIP 557 Ind 505
+ Tardy Gate ward which is in a division with 2 wards from another constituency
We'll either get a by-election very quickly or not for a very considerable period of time (if at all). The latter is more likely. I wouldn't be rushing to place those UKIP bets just yet.
Farage would surely run in the south east. He's from Westerham which is in Sevenoaks and therefore a bit too Tory. But heading west to the Kent coast or south to the retirement towns of Sussex, he'd likely get a victory.
UKIP have apparently identified some target seats already. If Mr Farage does stand for Westminster in 2015, he'll pick a cert.
One of the inevitable consequences of results like Stewart Hall is that the police and the prosecuting authorities get more gung ho about bringing cases like this where there is almost certainly no forensic evidence.
We saw a similar effect on the expenses scandals where the police got more and more aggressive as juries happily convicted.
This case is too soon to be a direct effect but it does seem inevitable that one of the consequences of the Saville investigations is that a lot more of these cases will come forward.
Ribble Valley should be a big test for " One Nation " EdMillionaire. If he can't bag this one , he'll never be PM.
Total rubbish. Blair had a massive majority without Ribble Valley. If this is a must win for anyone it would be Cameron.
Blair in opposition would have walked this. Who's the real opposition now , UKIP or Labour ?
Eh? Blair didn't win Ribble Valley in 1997.
I presume there's some mixing and matching going on in the assumption. That is, Blair in opposition would have walked a contest, in the current context, whereas Ed M would not.
We'll either get a by-election very quickly or not for a very considerable period of time (if at all). The latter is more likely. I wouldn't be rushing to place those UKIP bets just yet.
Agreed. Unless there is a plea this will be into next year. I really can't see why he would resign prior to conviction or plea. Even our former SoS for the Environment didn't.
Technically I don't think it's true that you can't be both an MEP and an MP. In practice of course it's not feasible to do both jobs sensibly, but it's like being London Mayor and an MP - you could maybe get away with it for a year or so without too much outrage.
Indeed, one could say it'd be an interesting challenge for Boris.
@TheScreamingEagles Avicii are working with Benny and Bjorn for Eurovision. Every other Eurovision story pales into insignificance by comparison with that.
@TheScreamingEagles Avicii are working with Benny and Bjorn for Eurovision. Every other Eurovision story pales into insignificance by comparison with that.
Difficult to bring extra shame on a seat represented by David Waddington, looks like Evans may be having a go.
No charges yet, tim.
The key question appears to me how rape can be committed over a period of time (Brunt a little confused over this but it appeared to be a period of years)?
Are we talking two incidents or a series of incidents with two victims.
Odd.
Maybe a recent accusation leading to an older one being made/taken more seriously.
The Mirror article linked to below is more specific than the Sky News report:
On the tiime period in which the offences were alleged to have been committed:
Back to Tebbit, I know I'm not the first to say or think it, but I really don't see the logic of how promising a date for an EU referendum would draw people back to the Cameroon Tories, because Cameron still wants to be in the EU, and they don't. They'll like the opportunity to vote sooner, but won't thank the Cameroons for it.
The Euro double mandates had been banned in 2004 with sitting MEPs having a sunset clause until 2009. The government had to make a special law in the meantime for LibDem Baroness Ludford as the Euro law talked about National Parliaments including the House of Lords.
I wonder if he will name the former Labour MP at some point. Nigel Evans came out as gay in 2010 after revealing that he was ‘tired of living a lie’. The Deputy Speaker of the Commons revealed that he had received threats of blackmail in the past from political enemies who wanted to expose him, including a former Labour MP.
The Euro double mandates had been banned in 2004 with sitting MEPs having a sunset clause until 2009. The government had to make a special law in the meantime for LibDem Baroness Ludford as the Euro law talked about National Parliaments including the House of Lords.
If numb-skulls like the Kinnocks can manage multiple EU and UK jobs simultaneously , I'm sure Farage will cope.
Anti-Semitic views are depressingly easy to find in Hungary, but on a low level basis. As the report said, the numbers involved were relatively small. Meanwhile, "shalom" was being heard regularly on the streets without any obvious nervousness.
I see Ladbrokes have suspended the UKIP price on Eastleigh on the next GE..
Not surprised...Lib Dems could be toast
Why?
Because its becoming obvious that the Tories will vote tactically in Eastleigh for UKIP. To kick the Lib Dems out. It's the old Lib Dem trick turned on them...what lovely irony
Nigel Evans (Con) 124 Lindsay Hoyle (Lab) 90 Dawn Primarolo (Lab) 76 Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (Con) 57 Roger Gale (Con) 48 Tom Clarke (Lab) 47 George Howarth (Lab) 40 Anne McIntosh (Con) 24 Marsha Singh (Lab) 9
Singh eliminated. Transfers: 2 each to Clarke, Gale, Hoyle, 1 each to McIntosh, Howarth, Primarolo
Transfers from McIntosh: 10 to Hoyle, 4 to Evans, 4 to CB, 3 to Gale, 1 to Clarke and Howarth. 2 Non Transferables
Transfers from Howarth: 16 to Primarolo, 9 to Clarke, 6 to Hoyle, 5 to Evans, 4 to CB, 2 to Gale
Evans reaches the quota and is elected.
Clifton Brown and Gale are eliminated as they are from government's side. Transfers from them 53 to Hoyle, 35 to Primarolo, 9 to Clarke. 23 Not Transferables
Comments
"Why is Nigel Evans trending?"
*Innocent face*
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-evans-top-tory-mp-1870063
But innocent until proven otherwise
"Under first past the post there is no point whatsoever in putting any effort at all into seats where you are not in contention and are never likely to be in contention."
The obvious rebuttal is that if you never put in effort, of course you're never bloody likely to be in contention!
There is no way, none, that the admitted fact that piling in resources into areas where you are weak is not sensible when resources are limited, in any way makes it somehow ok for a party to be utterly obliterated in large swathes of areas, because it's not like they were going to win, you know, so having any voters in that area at all is clearly a complete waste, so why not just effing celebrate that there is no hope of one day increasing support there?
In fact, let's just tell people considering voting one way which has no hope of winning a seat, to stop doing it, you fools, they'll never win there so stop being pathetic. Move to an area which matches your politics, silly voter.
EDIT - ah - its two men, that makes more sense. I was most perplexed.
It's a tough job but somebody has to do it.
The key question appears to me how rape can be committed over a period of time (Brunt a little confused over this but it appeared to be a period of years)?
Are we talking two incidents or a series of incidents with two victims.
Odd.
Meanwhile think this might be the first time I've ever agreed with Norman Tebbit. His analysis seems pretty spot on to me: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22414588
UKIP got nearly 7% in 2010.
Conservative Nigel Evans 26,298 50.3 +5.4
Labour Paul Foster 11,529 22.0 −7.8
Liberal Democrat Allan Knox 10,732 20.5 −2.1
UKIP Stephen Rush 3,496 6.7 +4.0
In 1992 Labour polled 6.5% compared to 35.3% in GB.
In 2010 Labour polled 22.0% compared to 29.7% in GB.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ribble_Valley_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
The British National Party has urged its members to procreate after it lost every seat it contested in the English local elections on Thursday.
The BNP fielded 99 candidates but did not win a seat. It lost the one county council seat it held in Lancashire, leaving Nick Griffin's party with just two councillors.
In a post on the party's website, members are urged to have bigger families to counter large families had by non-Britons.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/04/bnp-members-breed-elections
The police's behaviour must both be and be seen to be pristine. Not unkempt.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/10035321/Warwickshire-police-blames-cuts-for-naming-policy-U-turn.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVnWLRVJkwM
For comedy if for nothing else.
Blair in opposition would have walked this. Who's the real opposition now , UKIP or Labour ?
8:22PM
NuLabour's stormtroopers have long been a law unto themselves.
Further, if Farage gets in he has to quit as an MEP, meaning he will be hedging a lot on being re-elected at the General Election in less than two years, a big gamble. If he waits till the General Election he will still be an MEP if he fails and probably have 4-5 years in Parliament at least if he succeeds.
Farage standing as a candidate now would be a terrible blunder for UKIP.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/other-politics/uk-politics/Will-UKIP-win-a-by-election-before-the-next-general-election?-4541429.html
On the tiime period in which the offences were alleged to have been committed:
“The offences are alleged to have been committed in Pendleton between July 2009 and March 2013.
On the linkage between the two alleged victims:
Two men are believed to have made the allegations and given statements about the sex attacks to police last week.
A source said: “The two men went to police claiming that Nigel had attacked them. It came as a bolt from the blue when police turned up at his door yesterday morning and arrested him.
Still important to treat all unofficial sources of information as speculative.
It never works.
Just 5 homicides in London over the last 6 weeks:
http://www.murdermap.co.uk/Investigate.asp
Ribble Valley NE Con 1970 UKIP 845 Lab 574 LD 231
Ribble Valley SW Con 2129 Lab 565 LD 236
Clitheroe: Con 1061 No Descr (UKIP 2010 GE candidate) 1016 LD 932 Lab 378
Longridge with Bowland: Con 1932 Lab 626 LD 207
South Ribble District divsions
Bamber Bridge & Walton-le-Dale: Lab 1151 Con 1120 UKIP 594
Farington: Con 980 Lab 958 UKIP 499 LD 107
South Ribble Rural East: Con 1288 Lab 616 UKIP 557 Ind 505
+ Tardy Gate ward which is in a division with 2 wards from another constituency
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/31242/#Comment_31242
Not surprised...Lib Dems could be toast
We saw a similar effect on the expenses scandals where the police got more and more aggressive as juries happily convicted.
This case is too soon to be a direct effect but it does seem inevitable that one of the consequences of the Saville investigations is that a lot more of these cases will come forward.
And hopefully you'll be getting a thread on it, by yours truly.
Seems spurious.
Nice of @SimonDanczuk to go through past tweets deleting mentions of Nigel Evans MP before he's even charged.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BJcd76ICYAAeVWd.jpg
http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/briefings/snpc-05375.pdf
As said, the next two years could be not about him...at least in the eyes of the media
Indeed, one could say it'd be an interesting challenge for Boris.
They have a duty investigate all allegations made to them.
The Euro double mandates had been banned in 2004 with sitting MEPs having a sunset clause until 2009. The government had to make a special law in the meantime for LibDem Baroness Ludford as the Euro law talked about National Parliaments including the House of Lords.
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2013/05/04/labour-lost-more-votes-than-tories-as-ukip-surged/
Nigel Evans came out as gay in 2010 after revealing that he was ‘tired of living a lie’.
The Deputy Speaker of the Commons revealed that he had received threats of blackmail in the past from political enemies who wanted to expose him, including a former Labour MP.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2319485/BREAKING-NEWS-Deputy-speaker-Nigel-Evans-arrested-suspicion-rape-sexual-assault-men.html#ixzz2SM5CXfg5
I don't think was a market last time for Deputy Speakers.
If numb-skulls like the Kinnocks can manage multiple EU and UK jobs simultaneously , I'm sure Farage will cope.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1192894/Revealed-How-Kinnocks-enjoyed-astonishing-10m-ride-EU-gravy-train.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22413301
Anti-Semitic views are depressingly easy to find in Hungary, but on a low level basis. As the report said, the numbers involved were relatively small. Meanwhile, "shalom" was being heard regularly on the streets without any obvious nervousness.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/77701/the_mail_on_sunday_saturday_4th_may_2013.html
Independent's front page is pretty funny though.
It's the old Lib Dem trick turned on them...what lovely irony
Evans is on the DM website - in between two fit young women and David Cameron.
First preferences
Nigel Evans (Con) 124
Lindsay Hoyle (Lab) 90
Dawn Primarolo (Lab) 76
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (Con) 57
Roger Gale (Con) 48
Tom Clarke (Lab) 47
George Howarth (Lab) 40
Anne McIntosh (Con) 24
Marsha Singh (Lab) 9
Singh eliminated. Transfers:
2 each to Clarke, Gale, Hoyle, 1 each to McIntosh, Howarth, Primarolo
Transfers from McIntosh:
10 to Hoyle, 4 to Evans, 4 to CB, 3 to Gale, 1 to Clarke and Howarth. 2 Non Transferables
Transfers from Howarth:
16 to Primarolo, 9 to Clarke, 6 to Hoyle, 5 to Evans, 4 to CB, 2 to Gale
Evans reaches the quota and is elected.
Clifton Brown and Gale are eliminated as they are from government's side.
Transfers from them
53 to Hoyle, 35 to Primarolo, 9 to Clarke. 23 Not Transferables
Hoyle and Primarolo are elected.
Deputy posts must be filled with Harrovians, Westminsters and Paulines.
At least David Davis would be satisfied.
http://www.repubblica.it/
http://www.lastampa.it/
but only second item on Corriere
http://www.corriere.it/
Might not get past some parental controls due to all that uncovered flesh.