politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Ladbroke punters have this right CON is heading for a wi

AndyJS said:

Apparently the Iraqi army is relying on Shia militias, who are in turn relying on Iran.

It's a mess

rcs1000 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

For those following the awesome predictive power of foxinsox jr with his form and subbutteo based simulation, may I remind you that he has Spain Netherlands as a 1:1 draw. Chile will beat Australia 2:0.

Both his 3:1 Brazil and 1:0 Mexico predictions were documented 24 hours in advance on PB.

you heard it here first...

What's his view on 2015 LibDem seats?

FWIW, Stephen Fisher is currently projecting a range of 22 - 34 seats for the LibDems.

Come to think on it, I just counted the potential flashpoints around the world.
I am in need of a smallish whisky for my nerves.

1:1 was juniors prediction ;-), so no more goals.

I am on the 21-30 seats with ladbrokes.

peter_from_putney said:

rcs1000 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

For those following the awesome predictive power of foxinsox jr with his form and subbutteo based simulation, may I remind you that he has Spain Netherlands as a 1:1 draw. Chile will beat Australia 2:0.

Both his 3:1 Brazil and 1:0 Mexico predictions were documented 24 hours in advance on PB.

you heard it here first...

What's his view on 2015 LibDem seats?

FWIW, Stephen Fisher is currently projecting a range of 22 - 34 seats for the LibDems.

Posted without comment

"Scottish independence campaigner claims MI5 is leading dirty tricks campaign "


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-independence-campaigner-claims-mi5-is-leading-dirty-tricks-campaign-9535799.html

Smarmeron said:

Posted without comment

"Scottish independence campaigner claims MI5 is leading dirty tricks campaign "


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-independence-campaigner-claims-mi5-is-leading-dirty-tricks-campaign-9535799.html

Oh please, fetch him a tin foil Tam o'Shanter.

Pulpstar said:

"The worry for Labour is that a victory in this manner will be portrayed as unfair and lead to claims that it lacks legitimacy."

I'll be too busy popping the champers.

Bit like the Beeb then

foxinsoxuk said:

For those following the awesome predictive power of foxinsox jr with his form and subbutteo based simulation, may I remind you that he has Spain Netherlands as a 1:1 draw. Chile will beat Australia 2:0.

Both his 3:1 Brazil and 1:0 Mexico predictions were documented 24 hours in advance on PB.

you heard it here first...

What is foxinsox jr forecasting for tomorrow's England vs Italy encounter?

@david_herdson

Take your Kalashnikovs and beat them into ploughshares?

That is also a 1:1 draw. The lad knows his football.

peter_from_putney said:

foxinsoxuk said:

For those following the awesome predictive power of foxinsox jr with his form and subbutteo based simulation, may I remind you that he has Spain Netherlands as a 1:1 draw. Chile will beat Australia 2:0.

Both his 3:1 Brazil and 1:0 Mexico predictions were documented 24 hours in advance on PB.

you heard it here first...

What is foxinsox jr forecasting for tomorrow's England vs Italy encounter?

Charles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We should keep on reminding Kippers of that Hannan article, for only this part

....Plus, obviously, he [Cameron] represents our one chance of a referendum on leaving the EU.

Well, quite. Hannan is that rare thing: a rational BOOer.

And I wonder at what point Hannan will realise that Cameron will keep us in the EU no matter what. His position within the Tory party will become untenable before we reach referendum day.

Richard, you don't know the way that Cameron thinks.

The one thing that he will not sacrifice is the Tory Party: he doesn't want to go down in history as the man who split it.

If he can't carry 2/3 of his party with him (i.e. supporting staying in on renegotiated terms) he will support 'out'.

That is an interesting thought Charles. Until now I had been with Richard on this (i.e. Cameron will never accept leaving the EU) but you are right he has consistently prioritized party unity over his preferred EU policy in the past (i.e. when he was forced to concede the referendum) and he might well do so again.

I think the Sun did pictures with all the leaders and Bojo to promote their coverage. It would have appeared unpatriotic to refuse so Ed M was stuck with a tricky one.

He didn't look convincing holding it though. He rarely photographs well.

Omnium said:

Why on earth is Ed apologising for being photographed with a copy of the Sun? I suspect almost everyone in the country has purchased a copy at one time or another. (Even I have - once I think).

If Ed does become PM he'll need to be a little less sensitive to this sort of thing. Perhaps it makes him more human and likeable to be pussy-footing about, but it also substantially damages the confidence that one might choose to place in him.

I'm sure it's an aberration, but it really has struck me as one of the oddest things he's done. (And as he is a bit odd, mostly in good ways, then that's quite an achievement)

Well this is going wrong.

Nice goal by the ever reliant Robben.

My £5 bet on Netherlands is looking good.

RodCrosby said:

ISIS claiming its first aerial attack on an Iraqi army camp in Samarra

Those ever helpfull american weapons.

AveryLP said:

Grandiose said:

For those concerned, I finished my exams today.

(Was covered in hot chocolate powder, milk, eggs, cherryade, salad cream and maple syrup, and chucked in a river.)

Socrates said:

Carnyx said:

dellertronic said:

So Con would win in England and Lab would be relaint on foreign votes to pass legislation. Isn't that the nationalist ase for Scotland. The case for an English parliament and a ban on Scottish MP's voting on English only matters strenghtens by the day. If Con have any sense they would get it into place before GE 2015.

Scotland foreign? That's a very early Indy day you are advocating - but then it wouldn't be sending MPs to Westminster.

Seriously, though, I see what you really mean - but it will be difficult to define England-only issues in ways that won't get derailed sooner or later, and whch don't discriminate against MPs for non-English constituencies. Those are interesting

http://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=1784

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/alex-massie/2013/08/than-answer-to-the-west-lothian-question-is-to-stop-asking-it/

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/a-neat-solution-to-the-west-lothian-question-but-what-might-go-wrong-8698507.html

Not to mention the small matter of the Lords ...

Your links are just Scots and lefties wanting to maintain influence in an obviously unfair system. If English MPs don't get to vote on Scottish matters, Scots MPs shouldn't get to vote on English matters. "Two classes of MP" already exist - it happened with devolution.

Alex Massie a leftie?! And you might care to reflect that the Scots had to suffer the West Hampstead Question for centuries (e.g. consider the ecclesiastical patronage legislation [edit: pressed wron button] of the 1830s and 1840s). But it's a fair point about two classes of MP.

I noticed that Holland were 9/2 to win at the start of the match. I don't bet on football but those odds seemed crazy to me.

Game over for Spain.

Espana 1982 once again.

All real football fans will be pleased.

Man U fans looking forward to Dutch chosen one.

Spain will not forget this night.

Phenomenal betting turnover on the Spain vs Netherlands game with over £21M matched so far on Betfair.
Instead of betting on the football, perhaps instead we should be buying shares in the betting exchange as well as in the likes of Hills, Ladbrokes, etc.

Richard_Tyndall said:

(..)

Perhaps they should have taken a leaf out of Mountbatten's book. At the end of WW2 after the Japanese surrendered, they were still the only effective police force across large areas of south-east Asia. Mountbatten recognised this and made use of the Japanese army as (usually unarmed) police. In a number of cases in Vietnam he actually rearmed Japanese troops and used them to help regain control of towns which had rebelled against the returning French rule.

An interesting thing for Mountbatten to do. I believe he was decidedly frosty to the Japanese until he died wasn't he?

However that isn't the same thing. A thin colonial force trying to supplant another thin colonial force.

Iraq was an invasion of a sovereign nation by another (ok coalition of), and the goal was regime change. It's hard to see that this goal is dissimilar to the invasion of Germany or Japan.

Something is different. My suspicion is that it may be something to do with the value of life that the invaded people have. The Germans and the Japanese had a huge incentive to regain that value of life, but the Iraqi's (many of them anyway) have never enjoyed a life that is worth fighting for. However this is mere conjecture, and I'm sure that there are many reasons.

What is the record for the Dutch?

Whoa 5-1 who'd have thought that?!?

I lost £100 with the Newark by-election, I ought to confess.

Bragging Rights Post

Me and Ms Briskin bet on Holland

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

A massive thank you to TSE for the football tips today.

My pleasure, my betting strategy is always back the outsider in the group games, there are always upsets and generally profitable.

This is Dockside hooker when the fleet is in territory.

No when 2 fleets are in

So will Casillas be dropped for the next game?

As I won't be onsite until tomorrow evening, my football tips for tomorrow are

Greece to beat Colombia, Costa Rica to beat Uruguay.

I've backed Italy to win tomorrow, I'll probably back England just before the start of the match, if you have the mobile apps for the bookies, they generally do a price boost an hour or so before kick off.

Also backed Gary Cahill as FGS, you can still get 40/1.

Tempted to back Gerrard too, if England get a penalty, he'll be our penalty taker.

Also I backed Australia to win tonight as well ICYMI, even if they don't win, will still be a profitable night.

Those were the days.

OptaJoe ‏@OptaJoe 2 mins
5 - Spain have conceded 5+ goals in an international for the first time since losing 6-2 to Scotland in June 1963. Gubbed.

Irvine Welsh ‏@WelshIrvine 3 mins
The pain in Spain lies mainly in the game...

Holland were 5.5 just before the match started.

Pulpstar said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Pulpstar said:

RodCrosby said:

18.21
ISIS have tweeted the decapitated head of what appears to be an Iraqi policeman with the sentence 'This is our football, it's made of skin #World Cup', followed by a boast of having slaughtered 1,700 soldiers.

They truly do fit the description of TERRORists.

But these are the people we've been turning a blind eye to in Syria, because they've been attacking a Government we want to topple. Their actions in Syria have been exactly the same.

You're getting your ad-Dawlat al-Islāmiyya fī’l-‘Irāq wa’sh-Shām and Jabhat an-Nuṣrah li-Ahl ash-Shām mixed up.

No, I'm not. I do follow the Syria situation quite closely, and I'm aware of the different designations, and who their key sponsors are (in this case Saudi Arabia). I'm not sure what you would call what we've been turning to ISIS if not a blind eye.

AndyJS said:

Holland were 5.5 just before the match started.

Presumably even higher when Spain went one up....

Although, we have probably seen the most embarrassing attempt at a celebratory high-five from the Netherlands.....

MarqueeMark said:

AndyJS said:

Holland were 5.5 just before the match started.

Presumably even higher when Spain went one up....

Around 20 I think.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Those were the days.

OptaJoe ‏@OptaJoe 2 mins
5 - Spain have conceded 5+ goals in an international for the first time since losing 6-2 to Scotland in June 1963. Gubbed.

And four years later, you became World Champions.

Baxtered had an entirely different meaning in those days.

Ave_it!!!!!!! The man who is always on a hat-trick!!

Time to rescind Del Bosque's marquisate!!

That is a horrible goal difference for Spain to be carrying.......

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Re Ed's problem with The Sun and Liverpool, this now means, Bootle is a nailed on Con GAIN right?

With Blair Minor the likely Labour candidate in Bootle, could there be a better result on the night?

Con gain Morley and Outwood would be the ultimate.

Stuart_Dickson said:

Lib Dems lengthening in Colchester (LD Maj = 6,982)

LD 2/9 (from 1/5)
Con 3/1 (from 7/2)
UKIP 33/1 (from 66/1)
Lab 50/1 (n/c)

From my experience Sir Bob works hard for his constituents and will take some digging out.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Re Ed's problem with The Sun and Liverpool, this now means, Bootle is a nailed on Con GAIN right?

With Blair Minor the likely Labour candidate in Bootle, could there be a better result on the night?

Con gain Morley and Outwood would be the ultimate.

Castration strategy!!

MarqueeMark said:

That is a horrible goal difference for Spain to be carrying.......

Don't the head-to-head results count first?

Ave_it said:

All about the 1485 Armada!

And Trafalgar 1805!

and culloden 1745 (sorry got confused that's 18 September )

1485? Were those traitorous Lancastrians funded by the Spanish?