We should keep on reminding Kippers of that Hannan article, for only this part
....Plus, obviously, he [Cameron] represents our one chance of a referendum on leaving the EU.
Well, quite. Hannan is that rare thing: a rational BOOer.
And I wonder at what point Hannan will realise that Cameron will keep us in the EU no matter what. His position within the Tory party will become untenable before we reach referendum day.
Well he is rational enough to see that Edonomics plus no referendum is significantly worse for the entire country than a Con govt and a referendum - so he won't be going anywhere as long as there is a referendum in the next parly.
Contrast with you - gagging to foist Ed on us for 5 years "for the greater good" - no thanks !
Of course if I were gagging to foist Ed on you it would indeed only be for 5 years. You on the other hand are gagging to foist ever closer union with the EU on to the rest of us permanently.
Why are you so scared of a referendum ?
I am not scared of a fair referendum, I am scared of a fixed one, which is what Cameron is planning. Why are you so scared of a fair referendum?
Lib Dems lengthening in South East Cornwall (Con Maj = 3,220)
Con 1/8 (n/c) LD 11/2 (from 9/2) UKIP 20/1 (from 25/1) 100 bar
Watch the prices when the LD-Con marginal poll comes out. The Conservatives are down 4% on GE 2010, the Lib Dems ~ 18%. I don't see how the poll can be anything other than awful for the Lib Dems.
Mr. kle4, indeed. It does sound like they've listened and learned (and been given sufficient time by EA, unlike with DA2). They've said they see Dragon Age as a 5 game or so series, and with a new Mass Effect coming out they'd shoot themselves in the foot strategically if Inquisition were a letdown.
The attitude of the north west towards the Sun is way over the top, bordering on precious and absolutely real. I simply fail to understand how a Labour leader can be sufficiently detached not to be almost constantly aware of it. Does this man have absolutely nothing in common with the party he purports to lead? And why does he want to make that so obvious?
Andy Burnham must be pulling his hair out or working out how to launch his campaign.
Lib Dems lengthening in South East Cornwall (Con Maj = 3,220)
Con 1/8 (n/c) LD 11/2 (from 9/2) UKIP 20/1 (from 25/1) 100 bar
Watch the prices when the LD-Con marginal poll comes out. The Conservatives are down 4% on GE 2010, the Lib Dems ~ 18%. I don't see how the poll can be anything other than awful for the Lib Dems.
They are learning the fine art of differentiating between the merely awful and the gut-wrenchingly awful though, which is an important skill in their circumstances, if only for what counts as morale purposes.
We should keep on reminding Kippers of that Hannan article, for only this part
....Plus, obviously, he [Cameron] represents our one chance of a referendum on leaving the EU.
Well, quite. Hannan is that rare thing: a rational BOOer.
And I wonder at what point Hannan will realise that Cameron will keep us in the EU no matter what. His position within the Tory party will become untenable before we reach referendum day.
Well he is rational enough to see that Edonomics plus no referendum is significantly worse for the entire country than a Con govt and a referendum - so he won't be going anywhere as long as there is a referendum in the next parly.
Contrast with you - gagging to foist Ed on us for 5 years "for the greater good" - no thanks !
Of course if I were gagging to foist Ed on you it would indeed only be for 5 years. You on the other hand are gagging to foist ever closer union with the EU on to the rest of us permanently.
Why are you so scared of a referendum ?
I am not scared of a fair referendum, I am scared of a fixed one, which is what Cameron is planning. Why are you so scared of a fair referendum?
Im not. I think we would be BOO. But aint happening under Ed. Referendums cant be fixed. Tin foil hat time ?
Lib Dems lengthening in South East Cornwall (Con Maj = 3,220)
Con 1/8 (n/c) LD 11/2 (from 9/2) UKIP 20/1 (from 25/1) 100 bar
Watch the prices when the LD-Con marginal poll comes out. The Conservatives are down 4% on GE 2010, the Lib Dems ~ 18%. I don't see how the poll can be anything other than awful for the Lib Dems.
They are learning the fine art of differentiating between the merely awful and the gut-wrenchingly awful though, which is an important skill in their circumstances, if only for what counts as morale purposes.
Lib Dems lengthening in South East Cornwall (Con Maj = 3,220)
Con 1/8 (n/c) LD 11/2 (from 9/2) UKIP 20/1 (from 25/1) 100 bar
Watch the prices when the LD-Con marginal poll comes out. The Conservatives are down 4% on GE 2010, the Lib Dems ~ 18%. I don't see how the poll can be anything other than awful for the Lib Dems.
Maybe the marginals poll won't be as bad for the LibDems as you are imagining - polling for the blues over the past few days hasn't been brilliant, witness last night's YouGov/Sun poll giving Labour a big lead.
Lib Dems lengthening in South East Cornwall (Con Maj = 3,220)
Con 1/8 (n/c) LD 11/2 (from 9/2) UKIP 20/1 (from 25/1) 100 bar
Watch the prices when the LD-Con marginal poll comes out. The Conservatives are down 4% on GE 2010, the Lib Dems ~ 18%. I don't see how the poll can be anything other than awful for the Lib Dems.
They are learning the fine art of differentiating between the merely awful and the gut-wrenchingly awful though, which is an important skill in their circumstances, if only for what counts as morale purposes.
Where is the line though ?
Yeovil ?
The line was passed some while ago I think. Around 8-9 percent 3 years out and they could argue they would pick up and still get back to the high teens. 1 year out and down to 6-7 on average, and it is much harder to argue they will get back into the mid teens, and that as the absolute maximum, and given it is only 1 year to go and the trend is in fact further down rather than up, 10ish seems very possible as a best case scenario.
We should keep on reminding Kippers of that Hannan article, for only this part
....Plus, obviously, he [Cameron] represents our one chance of a referendum on leaving the EU.
Well, quite. Hannan is that rare thing: a rational BOOer.
And I wonder at what point Hannan will realise that Cameron will keep us in the EU no matter what. His position within the Tory party will become untenable before we reach referendum day.
Well he is rational enough to see that Edonomics plus no referendum is significantly worse for the entire country than a Con govt and a referendum - so he won't be going anywhere as long as there is a referendum in the next parly.
Contrast with you - gagging to foist Ed on us for 5 years "for the greater good" - no thanks !
Of course if I were gagging to foist Ed on you it would indeed only be for 5 years. You on the other hand are gagging to foist ever closer union with the EU on to the rest of us permanently.
Why are you so scared of a referendum ?
I am not scared of a fair referendum, I am scared of a fixed one, which is what Cameron is planning. Why are you so scared of a fair referendum?
You are not alleging any fix though, you simply keep repeating that there will be lots of parties campaigning on the other side to yours. What is unfair about that? Where is the fix?
We should keep on reminding Kippers of that Hannan article, for only this part
....Plus, obviously, he [Cameron] represents our one chance of a referendum on leaving the EU.
Well, quite. Hannan is that rare thing: a rational BOOer.
And I wonder at what point Hannan will realise that Cameron will keep us in the EU no matter what. His position within the Tory party will become untenable before we reach referendum day.
Well he is rational enough to see that Edonomics plus no referendum is significantly worse for the entire country than a Con govt and a referendum - so he won't be going anywhere as long as there is a referendum in the next parly.
Contrast with you - gagging to foist Ed on us for 5 years "for the greater good" - no thanks !
Of course if I were gagging to foist Ed on you it would indeed only be for 5 years. You on the other hand are gagging to foist ever closer union with the EU on to the rest of us permanently.
Why are you so scared of a referendum ?
I am not scared of a fair referendum, I am scared of a fixed one, which is what Cameron is planning. Why are you so scared of a fair referendum?
Im not. I think we would be BOO. But aint happening under Ed. Referendums cant be fixed. Tin foil hat time ?
Of course they can be fixed. That is a ludicrous thing to say.
Look at the two questions I posed to Richard N and bear in mind it is absolutely impossible that Cameron can achieve anything significant and binding in the timescale he has set himself.
If and when he comes back with basically nothing what do you think he will do? Will he admit it and campaign for out, admit it and still campaign for in or simply pretend he has achieved something significant? I know which one I reckon he will plump for.
We should keep on reminding Kippers of that Hannan article, for only this part
....Plus, obviously, he [Cameron] represents our one chance of a referendum on leaving the EU.
Well, quite. Hannan is that rare thing: a rational BOOer.
And I wonder at what point Hannan will realise that Cameron will keep us in the EU no matter what. His position within the Tory party will become untenable before we reach referendum day.
Well he is rational enough to see that Edonomics plus no referendum is significantly worse for the entire country than a Con govt and a referendum - so he won't be going anywhere as long as there is a referendum in the next parly.
Contrast with you - gagging to foist Ed on us for 5 years "for the greater good" - no thanks !
Of course if I were gagging to foist Ed on you it would indeed only be for 5 years. You on the other hand are gagging to foist ever closer union with the EU on to the rest of us permanently.
Why are you so scared of a referendum ?
I am not scared of a fair referendum, I am scared of a fixed one, which is what Cameron is planning. Why are you so scared of a fair referendum?
You are not alleging any fix though, you simply keep repeating that there will be lots of parties campaigning on the other side to yours. What is unfair about that? Where is the fix?
I think the reasoning is that Cameron will claim to have secured something substantive when in fact he has done no such thing, and people being people, they will be fooled, or at least enough people will be to be potentially decisive. Why the BOOers could not just make that point - as I think they are correct Cameron will claim some bauble as being significant when it is no such thing - I am not sure. Parties overstate the benefits and truth of their cases all the time in elections, the other sides hold them to account, that is not a fix, it is politics. An unfortunate aspect of it, but a part of it nonetheless. I suppose in this instance the media would be on the side of In, so that would be harder to do?
Lib Dems lengthening in South East Cornwall (Con Maj = 3,220)
Con 1/8 (n/c) LD 11/2 (from 9/2) UKIP 20/1 (from 25/1) 100 bar
Watch the prices when the LD-Con marginal poll comes out. The Conservatives are down 4% on GE 2010, the Lib Dems ~ 18%. I don't see how the poll can be anything other than awful for the Lib Dems.
Maybe the marginals poll won't be as bad for the LibDems as you are imagining - polling for the blues over the past few days hasn't been brilliant, witness last night's YouGov/Sun poll giving Labour a big lead.
The swing away from the Conservatives nationally is nothing compared to the Lib Dem situation if you are going by Yougov.
A vast difference.
37 -> 32 (Con) 25 -> 8 (LD)
Thats a 6 pt swing to the Conservatives.
And there is still some swingback to come in the CON figure - Does swingback work for minor parties in coalitions ?
Well if they score a mighty 6% they can kiss it bye bye like 40 plus of their other seats
What I cannot comprehend is why the LD price is so short (2/9) in this seat, and many others. Incumbency is going to be irrelevant if the Lib Dems go sub 10%. There could actually be reverse tactical voting, aimed at punishing sitting LD MPs. That is what happened in Scotland.
I see the SNP response to criticism is still to shout it down:
Professor Adam Tomkins, Glasgow University chair of public law, said Willie Coffey had misrepresented the evidence he gave to the Scottish Parliament's European and External Relations Committee and had interrupted him "repeatedly".
Prof Tomkins also claimed committee convener SNP MSP Christina McKelvie had dealt with the situation "inappropriately" by "cutting me off and not allowing me to complete my evidence uninterrupted".
Lib Dems lengthening in South East Cornwall (Con Maj = 3,220)
Con 1/8 (n/c) LD 11/2 (from 9/2) UKIP 20/1 (from 25/1) 100 bar
Watch the prices when the LD-Con marginal poll comes out. The Conservatives are down 4% on GE 2010, the Lib Dems ~ 18%. I don't see how the poll can be anything other than awful for the Lib Dems.
Maybe the marginals poll won't be as bad for the LibDems as you are imagining - polling for the blues over the past few days hasn't been brilliant, witness last night's YouGov/Sun poll giving Labour a big lead.
The swing away from the Conservatives nationally is nothing compared to the Lib Dem situation if you are going by Yougov.
A vast difference.
Yes, but isn't that already factored into expectations? I don't understand why you think this forthcoming poll will have any startling impact.
Well if they score a mighty 6% they can kiss it bye bye like 40 plus of their other seats
What I cannot comprehend is why the LD price is so short (2/9) in this seat, and many others. Incumbency is going to be irrelevant if the Lib Dems go sub 10%. There could actually be reverse tactical voting, aimed at punishing sitting LD MPs. That is what happened in Scotland.
Most people have assumed up to now that the LD vote simply must rise at some point, it has to surely, and so the impact of the sub-10% for so long has been blunted. But we get closer and closer to the date and things are getting even worse, and that has implications as you point out, one of which is that perhaps they really will only get that amount. Eventually, that has to be reflected.
Well if they score a mighty 6% they can kiss it bye bye like 40 plus of their other seats
What I cannot comprehend is why the LD price is so short (2/9) in this seat, and many others. Incumbency is going to be irrelevant if the Lib Dems go sub 10%. There could actually be reverse tactical voting, aimed at punishing sitting LD MPs. That is what happened in Scotland.
We should keep on reminding Kippers of that Hannan article, for only this part
....Plus, obviously, he [Cameron] represents our one chance of a referendum on leaving the EU.
Well, quite. Hannan is that rare thing: a rational BOOer.
And I wonder at what point Hannan will realise that Cameron will keep us in the EU no matter what. His position within the Tory party will become untenable before we reach referendum day.
Well he is rational enough to see that Edonomics plus no referendum is significantly worse for the entire country than a Con govt and a referendum - so he won't be going anywhere as long as there is a referendum in the next parly.
Contrast with you - gagging to foist Ed on us for 5 years "for the greater good" - no thanks !
Of course if I were gagging to foist Ed on you it would indeed only be for 5 years. You on the other hand are gagging to foist ever closer union with the EU on to the rest of us permanently.
Why are you so scared of a referendum ?
I am not scared of a fair referendum, I am scared of a fixed one, which is what Cameron is planning. Why are you so scared of a fair referendum?
You are not alleging any fix though, you simply keep repeating that there will be lots of parties campaigning on the other side to yours. What is unfair about that? Where is the fix?
I think the reasoning is that Cameron will claim to have secured something substantive when in fact he has done no such thing, and people being people, they will be fooled, or at least enough people will be to be potentially decisive. Why the BOOers could not just make that point - as I think they are correct Cameron will claim some bauble as being significant when it is no such thing - I am not sure. Parties overstate the benefits and truth of their cases all the time in elections, the other sides hold them to account, that is not a fix, it is politics. An unfortunate aspect of it, but a part of it nonetheless. I suppose in this instance the media would be on the side of In, so that would be harder to do?
Well, exactly. If Ukip are too precious to campaign against an opponent who just theoretically might make a questionable claim to support his case what are they doing standing in elections of any kind?
18.21 ISIS have tweeted the decapitated head of what appears to be an Iraqi policeman with the sentence 'This is our football, it's made of skin #World Cup', followed by a boast of having slaughtered 1,700 soldiers.
Well if they score a mighty 6% they can kiss it bye bye like 40 plus of their other seats
What I cannot comprehend is why the LD price is so short (2/9) in this seat, and many others. Incumbency is going to be irrelevant if the Lib Dems go sub 10%. There could actually be reverse tactical voting, aimed at punishing sitting LD MPs. That is what happened in Scotland.
I don't think there will be anti-tactical voting against the Lib Dems in LD-Con seats, but some Labour supporters might just say sod it and waste their vote on Labour.
18.21 ISIS have tweeted the decapitated head of what appears to be an Iraqi policeman with the sentence 'This is our football, it's made of skin #World Cup', followed by a boast of having slaughtered 1,700 soldiers.
We should keep on reminding Kippers of that Hannan article, for only this part
....Plus, obviously, he [Cameron] represents our one chance of a referendum on leaving the EU.
Well, quite. Hannan is that rare thing: a rational BOOer.
And I wonder at what point Hannan will realise that Cameron will keep us in the EU no matter what. His position within the Tory party will become untenable before we reach referendum day.
Well he is rational enough to see that Edonomics plus no referendum is significantly worse for the entire country than a Con govt and a referendum - so he won't be going anywhere as long as there is a referendum in the next parly.
Contrast with you - gagging to foist Ed on us for 5 years "for the greater good" - no thanks !
Of course if I were gagging to foist Ed on you it would indeed only be for 5 years. You on the other hand are gagging to foist ever closer union with the EU on to the rest of us permanently.
Why are you so scared of a referendum ?
I am not scared of a fair referendum, I am scared of a fixed one, which is what Cameron is planning. Why are you so scared of a fair referendum?
You are not alleging any fix though, you simply keep repeating that there will be lots of parties campaigning on the other side to yours. What is unfair about that? Where is the fix?
I think the reasoning is that Cameron will claim to have secured something substantive when in fact he has done no such thing, and people being people, they will be fooled, or at least enough people will be to be potentially decisive. Why the BOOers could not just make that point - as I think they are correct Cameron will claim some bauble as being significant when it is no such thing - I am not sure. Parties overstate the benefits and truth of their cases all the time in elections, the other sides hold them to account, that is not a fix, it is politics. An unfortunate aspect of it, but a part of it nonetheless. I suppose in this instance the media would be on the side of In, so that would be harder to do?
That is exactly the point. And we know he is going to do this already as he has set himself an impossible time scale in which to achieve any substantive and enforceable changes. He has already set himself up to fail as far as renegotiation goes.
Well if they score a mighty 6% they can kiss it bye bye like 40 plus of their other seats
What I cannot comprehend is why the LD price is so short (2/9) in this seat, and many others. Incumbency is going to be irrelevant if the Lib Dems go sub 10%. There could actually be reverse tactical voting, aimed at punishing sitting LD MPs. That is what happened in Scotland.
I don't think there will be anti-tactical voting against the Lib Dems in LD-Con seats, but some Labour supporters might just say sod it and waste their vote on Labour.
Given the numbers in the polls that immediately jumped ship upon the creation of the Coalition, the Labour supporters in such seats might well make up 30-50% of the LD votes in those seats.
We should keep on reminding Kippers of that Hannan article, for only this part
....Plus, obviously, he [Cameron] represents our one chance of a referendum on leaving the EU.
Well, quite. Hannan is that rare thing: a rational BOOer.
And I wonder at what point Hannan will realise that Cameron will keep us in the EU no matter what. His position within the Tory party will become untenable before we reach referendum day.
Well he is rational enough to see that Edonomics plus no referendum is significantly worse for the entire country than a Con govt and a referendum - so he won't be going anywhere as long as there is a referendum in the next parly.
Contrast with you - gagging to foist Ed on us for 5 years "for the greater good" - no thanks !
Of course if I were gagging to foist Ed on you it would indeed only be for 5 years. You on the other hand are gagging to foist ever closer union with the EU on to the rest of us permanently.
Why are you so scared of a referendum ?
I am not scared of a fair referendum, I am scared of a fixed one, which is what Cameron is planning. Why are you so scared of a fair referendum?
You
I think the reasoning is that Cameron will claim to have secured something substantive when in fact he has done no such thing, and people being people, they will be fooled, or at least enough people will be to be potentially decisive. Why the BOOers could not just make that point - as I think they are correct Cameron will claim some bauble as being significant when it is no such thing - I am not sure. Parties overstate the benefits and truth of their cases all the time in elections, the other sides hold them to account, that is not a fix, it is politics. An unfortunate aspect of it, but a part of it nonetheless. I suppose in this instance the media would be on the side of In, so that would be harder to do?
That is exactly the point. And we know he is going to do this already as he has set himself an impossible time scale in which to achieve any substantive and enforceable changes. He has already set himself up to fail as far as renegotiation goes.
I understand that fear. I think he will misrepresent what he has achieved too. I don't think that amounts to a fix, because people are free to call him out on that misrepresentation and punish him for it, but I accept that is probably a moot point for BOOers.
Anything blow 50/1 is an utter waste of money. Darlington votes red even if the candidate are incompetent monkeys, and in a large number of wards they are.
Well, exactly. If Ukip are too precious to campaign against an opponent who just theoretically might make a questionable claim to support his case what are they doing standing in elections of any kind?
Given that the aim is to get out of the EU, why take the chance of losing in a fixed referendum? There are other ways to achieve the aim of leaving the EU which, whilst they might take longer, are more likely to succeed.
As far as BOO is concerned it would be crazy to regard Cameron as anything other than an obstacle.
Apologies for the photo of Carmichael displaying on the site and using up bandwidth. Is there a way of linking to a twitter photo without the photo appearing in all its glory?
UKIP shorten in Harwich and North Essex: 16/1 from 20/1
To unseat Bernard Jenkin. You're havin' a laugh. Or more likely, some overoptimistic UKIP supporter. Quite wide Euro support in the seat, but the heartland of the Tory in Westminster UKIP at Brussels voter so common in the East of England.
Apologies for the photo of Carmichael displaying on the site and using up bandwidth. Is there a way of linking to a twitter photo without the photo appearing in all its glory?
I usually just put in a space between the two H's in the http address:
18.21 ISIS have tweeted the decapitated head of what appears to be an Iraqi policeman with the sentence 'This is our football, it's made of skin #World Cup', followed by a boast of having slaughtered 1,700 soldiers.
They truly do fit the description of TERRORists.
Strange though, isn't it? In Iraq aren't they effectively proposing themselves as an alternative government? Boasts of 1,700 dead will surely have shias and other loyalists queuing up - and a lower risk of defections.
So Con would win in England and Lab would be relaint on foreign votes to pass legislation. Isn't that the nationalist ase for Scotland. The case for an English parliament and a ban on Scottish MP's voting on English only matters strenghtens by the day. If Con have any sense they would get it into place before GE 2015.
Lib Dems lengthening in South East Cornwall (Con Maj = 3,220)
Con 1/8 (n/c) LD 11/2 (from 9/2) UKIP 20/1 (from 25/1) 100 bar
Watch the prices when the LD-Con marginal poll comes out. The Conservatives are down 4% on GE 2010, the Lib Dems ~ 18%. I don't see how the poll can be anything other than awful for the Lib Dems.
Maybe the marginals poll won't be as bad for the LibDems as you are imagining - polling for the blues over the past few days hasn't been brilliant, witness last night's YouGov/Sun poll giving Labour a big lead.
The swing away from the Conservatives nationally is nothing compared to the Lib Dem situation if you are going by Yougov.
A vast difference.
37 -> 32 (Con) 25 -> 8 (LD)
Thats a 6 pt swing to the Conservatives.
And there is still some swingback to come in the CON figure - Does swingback work for minor parties in coalitions ?
In Germany last time there was no swing back to the FDP and they ended up losing two thirds of their vote and missing the 5% threshold. (And therefore ending up with zero seats.)
That being said, this is not Germany and we are in uncharted territory here.
Wrong - the ICM phone poll real sample is often much lower because of refusers.
I don't know why people don't want to even discuss Labour's rising score - the trend is clear and if it was to the Tories we'd hear about nowt else.
More of a vague thought than an actual opinion but didn't a lot of Con->Ukip switchers go through a process of occasional switching before finally taking the plunge? I guess this might be happening with some Lab->Ukip switchers too.
18.21 ISIS have tweeted the decapitated head of what appears to be an Iraqi policeman with the sentence 'This is our football, it's made of skin #World Cup', followed by a boast of having slaughtered 1,700 soldiers.
They truly do fit the description of TERRORists.
Strange though, isn't it? In Iraq aren't they effectively proposing themselves as an alternative government? Boasts of 1,700 dead will surely have shias and other loyalists queuing up - and a lower risk of defections.
Polarization. Shia revenge attacks will drive the other Sunnis to them. Same thing happened with all the shrine bombings and stuff that started the civil war in the first place.
18.21 ISIS have tweeted the decapitated head of what appears to be an Iraqi policeman with the sentence 'This is our football, it's made of skin #World Cup', followed by a boast of having slaughtered 1,700 soldiers.
They truly do fit the description of TERRORists.
But these are the people we've been turning a blind eye to in Syria, because they've been attacking a Government we want to topple. Their actions in Syria have been exactly the same.
UKIP tighten in Wyre Forest (Con Maj, Mark Garnier, over Health Concern = 2,643)
Con 1/6 (from 1/8) National Health Action Party (Dr Richard Taylor, former independent MP for Wyre Forest) 8/1 UKIP 10/1 (from 16/1) Lab 20/1 (from 12/1) 100 bar
(Was covered in hot chocolate powder, milk, eggs, cherryade, salad cream and maple syrup, and chucked in a river.)
Excellent and congratultions, hope it went well.
Assuming that you have followed the normal route of school-university without a gap year then be prepared for next May/June when you will have a strange feeling creep over you. It will probably be the first time since you were younger than 10 that you will not have had tests or exams at this time of year and (assuming you have revised for exams throughout your education) you do end up with a strange feeling that there is something you really ought to be doing but can't quite put your finger on it.
So Con would win in England and Lab would be relaint on foreign votes to pass legislation. Isn't that the nationalist ase for Scotland. The case for an English parliament and a ban on Scottish MP's voting on English only matters strenghtens by the day. If Con have any sense they would get it into place before GE 2015.
Scotland foreign? That's a very early Indy day you are advocating - but then it wouldn't be sending MPs to Westminster.
Seriously, though, I see what you really mean - but it will be difficult to define England-only issues in ways that won't get derailed sooner or later, and whch don't discriminate against MPs for non-English constituencies. Those are interesting
For those following the awesome predictive power of foxinsox jr with his form and subbutteo based simulation, may I remind you that he has Spain Netherlands as a 1:1 draw. Chile will beat Australia 2:0.
Both his 3:1 Brazil and 1:0 Mexico predictions were documented 24 hours in advance on PB.
Ed Miliband tightening at Betfair in the Next Prime Minister market (but note: just 28,708 GBP matched):
Ed Miliband 2.2 Boris Johnson 8.2 Yvette Cooper 14 Theresa May 15.5 George Osborne 23 Philip Hammond 24 Michael Gove 24 William Hague 26 Chuka Umunna 26 Ed Balls 30 David Miliband 42 David Davis 46 Liam Fox 55
Ed Miliband tightening at Betfair in the Next Prime Minister market (but note: just 28,708 GBP matched):
Ed Miliband 2.2 Boris Johnson 8.2 Yvette Cooper 14 Theresa May 15.5 George Osborne 23 Philip Hammond 24 Michael Gove 24 William Hague 26 Chuka Umunna 26 Ed Balls 30 David Miliband 42 David Davis 46 Liam Fox 55
No Cameron, D? Or is he Not the Next but the Current PM?
For those following the awesome predictive power of foxinsox jr with his form and subbutteo based simulation, may I remind you that he has Spain Netherlands as a 1:1 draw. Chile will beat Australia 2:0.
Both his 3:1 Brazil and 1:0 Mexico predictions were documented 24 hours in advance on PB.
Ed Miliband tightening at Betfair in the Next Prime Minister market (but note: just 28,708 GBP matched):
Ed Miliband 2.2 Boris Johnson 8.2 Yvette Cooper 14 Theresa May 15.5 George Osborne 23 Philip Hammond 24 Michael Gove 24 William Hague 26 Chuka Umunna 26 Ed Balls 30 David Miliband 42 David Davis 46 Liam Fox 55
No Cameron, D? Or is he Not the Next but the Current PM?
Correct.
The market is for the next UK PM, after D Cameron, irrespective of date. It could be in 2014, 2015, 2020, 2025 etc -> it doesn't matter when or how, simply who.
Theresa May lengthening in the Next Con Leader market: now 7/2 at both Betfair and Bet365 (best price remains Hills at 4/1). George Osborne also lengthening at Betfair (best price: 12/1 at BetFred).
For those following the awesome predictive power of foxinsox jr with his form and subbutteo based simulation, may I remind you that he has Spain Netherlands as a 1:1 draw. Chile will beat Australia 2:0.
Both his 3:1 Brazil and 1:0 Mexico predictions were documented 24 hours in advance on PB.
18.21 ISIS have tweeted the decapitated head of what appears to be an Iraqi policeman with the sentence 'This is our football, it's made of skin #World Cup', followed by a boast of having slaughtered 1,700 soldiers.
They truly do fit the description of TERRORists.
But these are the people we've been turning a blind eye to in Syria, because they've been attacking a Government we want to topple. Their actions in Syria have been exactly the same.
You're getting your ad-Dawlat al-Islāmiyya fī’l-‘Irāq wa’sh-Shām and Jabhat an-Nuṣrah li-Ahl ash-Shām mixed up.
Channel 4 News — the mayor of Liverpool has issued a statement saying that Ed Miliband has insulted every person in the city by posing for the photo.
I actually feel sorry for the guy having to put up with this idiocy, It's bad enough when you have to put up with it from your opponents, that's all part of the game, but this nonsense?
Well if they score a mighty 6% they can kiss it bye bye like 40 plus of their other seats
What I cannot comprehend is why the LD price is so short (2/9) in this seat, and many others. Incumbency is going to be irrelevant if the Lib Dems go sub 10%. There could actually be reverse tactical voting, aimed at punishing sitting LD MPs. That is what happened in Scotland.
Keep calm & back the Tories.
The odd thing is that the CON prices remain stubbornly long in a huge basket of key seats. It really is a bit strange when you consider Labour's troubles.
Are punters worried that the Tories might be irrevocably crippled by a poor performance in the IndyRef? A YES vote would surely end David Cameron's career instantly. A narrow NO vote would be a huge embarrasment for Cameron.
Channel 4 News — the mayor of Liverpool has issued a statement saying that Ed Miliband has insulted every person in the city by posing for the photo.
I actually feel sorry for the guy having to put up with this idiocy, It's bad enough when you have to put up with it from your opponents, that's all part of the game, but this nonsense?
Well if they score a mighty 6% they can kiss it bye bye like 40 plus of their other seats
What I cannot comprehend is why the LD price is so short (2/9) in this seat, and many others. Incumbency is going to be irrelevant if the Lib Dems go sub 10%. There could actually be reverse tactical voting, aimed at punishing sitting LD MPs. That is what happened in Scotland.
Keep calm & back the Tories.
The odd thing is that the CON prices remain stubbornly long in a huge basket of key seats. It really is a bit strange when you consider Labour's troubles.
Are punters worried that the Tories might be irrevocably crippled by a poor performance in the IndyRef? A YES vote would surely end David Cameron's career instantly. A narrow NO vote would be a huge embarrasment for Cameron.
Well the SNP and Labour aren't doing too badly - all the normal sort of midterm churn. The Lib Dems are down a country mile though, the swing against them is far bigger than the swing against the Conservatives and Labour are nowhere in these seats so they are straight Con-LD shootouts.
The long price in Con-LD seats confuses me, its more understandable in Con-Lab marginals. Con-Lab marginals north of the border might behave differently, you evidently think so but I can't fathom the short Lib Dem prices in the SW.
Well if they score a mighty 6% they can kiss it bye bye like 40 plus of their other seats
What I cannot comprehend is why the LD price is so short (2/9) in this seat, and many others. Incumbency is going to be irrelevant if the Lib Dems go sub 10%. There could actually be reverse tactical voting, aimed at punishing sitting LD MPs. That is what happened in Scotland.
Keep calm & back the Tories.
The odd thing is that the CON prices remain stubbornly long in a huge basket of key seats. It really is a bit strange when you consider Labour's troubles.
Are punters worried that the Tories might be irrevocably crippled by a poor performance in the IndyRef? A YES vote would surely end David Cameron's career instantly. A narrow NO vote would be a huge embarrasment for Cameron.
If the views of the people where I work (e mids) are any guide, you're projecting your views on its importance to England.
Channel 4 News — the mayor of Liverpool has issued a statement saying that Ed Miliband has insulted every person in the city by posing for the photo.
I actually feel sorry for the guy having to put up with this idiocy, It's bad enough when you have to put up with it from your opponents, that's all part of the game, but this nonsense?
Surely, at a certain point Scousers just need to get over the Sun thing. Are politicians really in a position where they can't be pictured with any organisation that has done anything bad in the last 25 years? Does anyone still work at the Sun as worked there then?
Channel 4 News — the mayor of Liverpool has issued a statement saying that Ed Miliband has insulted every person in the city by posing for the photo.
I actually feel sorry for the guy having to put up with this idiocy, It's bad enough when you have to put up with it from your opponents, that's all part of the game, but this nonsense?
Surely, at a certain point Scousers just need to get over the Sun thing. Are politicians really in a position where they can't be pictured with any organisation that has done anything bad in the last 25 years? Does anyone still work at the Sun as worked there then?
Agreed. It's ridiculous. That people in actual positions of power, even if minor, are either genuine in their outrage or feel the need to use it as a pretext for general dissatisfaction, is depressing.
If the LDs were to win less than 10% at GE2015 it wouldn't matter about tactical voting or personal votes, they'd lose most of their MPs anyway. Those things only matter once you assume they get up to about 14-15%.
Yes: at 15-16%, and given the rise of UKIP, the LibDems keep the bulk (perhaps 40) of their seats.
At 8% or below, they'll be sharing a taxi. And it won't be a people carrier one, either.
I continue to think Charles Kennedy for next leader is the best way to play LibDemaggedon. Sub 8% means very, very few MPs (at 8%, it will be 3-to-4) , of which CK will definitely be one. Hard to see how he won't be leader under these circumstances. 50-1 is clear value.
In a taxi scenario the Lib Dems could be left with the following MPs: Carmichael, Kennedy, Clegg, Foster, Farron, Lamb and Laws.
All of those last three - all of which have majorities greater than 11,000 - would have to lose to make Kennedy the frontrunner for next leader.
And with Kennedy you also run the risk that Scotland votes for Independence, entirely ruling him out.
Probably Don Foster is a better bet. Besides Clegg and the other obvious leadership frontrunners he has the safest seat in England, so you don't have the Scottish dimension to worry about. That and his odds would surely be longer than 100-1.
So Con would win in England and Lab would be relaint on foreign votes to pass legislation. Isn't that the nationalist ase for Scotland. The case for an English parliament and a ban on Scottish MP's voting on English only matters strenghtens by the day. If Con have any sense they would get it into place before GE 2015.
Scotland foreign? That's a very early Indy day you are advocating - but then it wouldn't be sending MPs to Westminster.
Seriously, though, I see what you really mean - but it will be difficult to define England-only issues in ways that won't get derailed sooner or later, and whch don't discriminate against MPs for non-English constituencies. Those are interesting
Your links are just Scots and lefties wanting to maintain influence in an obviously unfair system. If English MPs don't get to vote on Scottish matters, Scots MPs shouldn't get to vote on English matters. "Two classes of MP" already exist - it happened with devolution.
Channel 4 News — the mayor of Liverpool has issued a statement saying that Ed Miliband has insulted every person in the city by posing for the photo.
I actually feel sorry for the guy having to put up with this idiocy, It's bad enough when you have to put up with it from your opponents, that's all part of the game, but this nonsense?
This story as made miliband look weak,he's only as to blame himself for it.
Just a quick note of some very rough figures that I've seen:
Estimated active Iraqi Army forces: somewhere between 230-250k Estimated reliable within the combat regions including the Baghdad region, including those that pulled out of areas taken by Sunni tribal forces - c60-65k (essentially those now within the greater Baghdad area). Estimated what the purely numerical forces within the combat regions including Baghdad region and including those that were ordered to pull out, and assumed successful in doing so, from areas taken over by Sunni tribal forces should be: about c140-150k
The numbers in Basra command are not huge at 40-50k and are excluded from the above. Somewhere then the Iraqi army has mysteriously lost a massive number of numerical fighting capacity of fighting capacity, be it through unreliability, desertion, disappearing into thin air, essentially sitting still somewhere, or simply not existing in reality. They certainly were not all captured during the Sunni march.
Not surprising then that Maliki decided to call the militias out.
Comments
Andy Burnham must be pulling his hair out or working out how to launch his campaign.
Yeovil ?
Look at the two questions I posed to Richard N and bear in mind it is absolutely impossible that Cameron can achieve anything significant and binding in the timescale he has set himself.
If and when he comes back with basically nothing what do you think he will do? Will he admit it and campaign for out, admit it and still campaign for in or simply pretend he has achieved something significant? I know which one I reckon he will plump for.
A vast difference.
37 -> 32 (Con)
25 -> 8 (LD)
Thats a 6 pt swing to the Conservatives.
And there is still some swingback to come in the CON figure - Does swingback work for minor parties in coalitions ?
Professor Adam Tomkins, Glasgow University chair of public law, said Willie Coffey had misrepresented the evidence he gave to the Scottish Parliament's European and External Relations Committee and had interrupted him "repeatedly".
Prof Tomkins also claimed committee convener SNP MSP Christina McKelvie had dealt with the situation "inappropriately" by "cutting me off and not allowing me to complete my evidence uninterrupted".
http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/scotland/committee-row-expert-seeks-apology-1.420806
Lab 1/16 (started yesterday at 1/50)
Con 8/1 (started yesterday at 25/1)
SNP 25/1 (n/c)
100 bar
Still plenty of value in both the CON and the SNP prices there.
ISIS have tweeted the decapitated head of what appears to be an Iraqi policeman with the sentence 'This is our football, it's made of skin #World Cup', followed by a boast of having slaughtered 1,700 soldiers.
Lab 1/25 (from 1/20)
LD 10/1 (from 8/1)
UKIP 50/1 (from 100/1)
100 bar
As the LD threat recedes in Lab/LD marginals, it frees up LAB resources (money + activists) to fight more important battles elsewhere.
Con 10/11 (from EVS)
LD 10/11 (from 5/6)
UKIP 25/1 (n/c)
100 bar
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100027483/european-commission-endorses-telegraph-view-of-the-euro/
SNP 5/4 (from 11/8)
LD 6/4 (from 11/8)
Lab 7/2 (n/c)
Con 20/1 (n/c)
100 bar
As far as BOO is concerned it would be crazy to regard Cameron as anything other than an obstacle.
LD 1/5 (from 1/6)
Con 7/2 (from 4/1)
UKIP 50/1 (from 100/1)
100 bar
To unseat Bernard Jenkin. You're havin' a laugh. Or more likely, some overoptimistic UKIP supporter. Quite wide Euro support in the seat, but the heartland of the Tory in Westminster UKIP at Brussels voter so common in the East of England.
(Was covered in hot chocolate powder, milk, eggs, cherryade, salad cream and maple syrup, and chucked in a river.)
http://www1.politicalbe...
becomes:
ht tp://www1.politicalbe...
Then users can easily fix the broken link, if they feel so inclined.
Prices prior to suspension: Con 1/3, LD 9/4, UKIP 33/1, 100 bar
Con 3/10 (Lad, from 1/3)
LD 5/2 (PP)
UKIP 66/1 (PP)
100 bar
As the LD threat recedes in Con/LD marginals, it frees up CON resources (money + activists) to fight more important battles elsewhere.
That being said, this is not Germany and we are in uncharted territory here.
Lab 1/50 (n/c)
Bez (Mark Berry, Happy Mondays) 25/1 (from 50/1)
UKIP 50/1 (from 100/1)
LD 50/1 (n/c)
100 bar
Lib Dems 50/1 (!!) in one of their 2010 target seats.
LD 8/11 (Lad, from 4/6)
Con 5/4 (PP)
UKIP 25/1 (Lad)
100 bar
Con 1/6 (from 1/8)
National Health Action Party (Dr Richard Taylor, former independent MP for Wyre Forest) 8/1
UKIP 10/1 (from 16/1)
Lab 20/1 (from 12/1)
100 bar
Assuming that you have followed the normal route of school-university without a gap year then be prepared for next May/June when you will have a strange feeling creep over you. It will probably be the first time since you were younger than 10 that you will not have had tests or exams at this time of year and (assuming you have revised for exams throughout your education) you do end up with a strange feeling that there is something you really ought to be doing but can't quite put your finger on it.
It took me a couple of years for it to fade away.
Seriously, though, I see what you really mean - but it will be difficult to define England-only issues in ways that won't get derailed sooner or later, and whch don't discriminate against MPs for non-English constituencies. Those are interesting
http://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=1784
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/alex-massie/2013/08/than-answer-to-the-west-lothian-question-is-to-stop-asking-it/
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/a-neat-solution-to-the-west-lothian-question-but-what-might-go-wrong-8698507.html
Not to mention the small matter of the Lords ...
Both his 3:1 Brazil and 1:0 Mexico predictions were documented 24 hours in advance on PB.
you heard it here first...
(stupid vanilla acting up)
Ed Miliband 2.2
Boris Johnson 8.2
Yvette Cooper 14
Theresa May 15.5
George Osborne 23
Philip Hammond 24
Michael Gove 24
William Hague 26
Chuka Umunna 26
Ed Balls 30
David Miliband 42
David Davis 46
Liam Fox 55
The market is for the next UK PM, after D Cameron, irrespective of date. It could be in 2014, 2015, 2020, 2025 etc -> it doesn't matter when or how, simply who.
Are punters worried that the Tories might be irrevocably crippled by a poor performance in the IndyRef? A YES vote would surely end David Cameron's career instantly. A narrow NO vote would be a huge embarrasment for Cameron.
Spain are slow starters.
https://www.betfair.com/sport/football/event?eventId=27113543
The long price in Con-LD seats confuses me, its more understandable in Con-Lab marginals. Con-Lab marginals north of the border might behave differently, you evidently think so but I can't fathom the short Lib Dem prices in the SW.
Get off the internet and
GO AND GET DRUNK
We will still be here tomorrow morning to nurse you through your hangover.
It looks to me like ref and linesmen are in Spain kit. Seems a little suspect.
But it's very easy to legislate to deal with this issue. Just base constituency sizes on average votes cast at, say, the last 3 general elections.
Immediately incentivises parties to encourage turnout in their safe seats.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ISISpressoffice
Just a quick note of some very rough figures that I've seen:
Estimated active Iraqi Army forces: somewhere between 230-250k
Estimated reliable within the combat regions including the Baghdad region, including those that pulled out of areas taken by Sunni tribal forces - c60-65k (essentially those now within the greater Baghdad area).
Estimated what the purely numerical forces within the combat regions including Baghdad region and including those that were ordered to pull out, and assumed successful in doing so, from areas taken over by Sunni tribal forces should be: about c140-150k
The numbers in Basra command are not huge at 40-50k and are excluded from the above. Somewhere then the Iraqi army has mysteriously lost a massive number of numerical fighting capacity of fighting capacity, be it through unreliability, desertion, disappearing into thin air, essentially sitting still somewhere, or simply not existing in reality. They certainly were not all captured during the Sunni march.
Not surprising then that Maliki decided to call the militias out.