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System Posts: 12,578
edited June 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Ladbroke punters have this right CON is heading for a win on votes – LAB on seats

The standard assumption is that this is mostly down to the boundaries is wrong. Yes LAB does get some benefit but the key factor is different turnout levels in CON and LAB seats. Shadsy of Ladbrokes gets this right in in his blog:-

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Possibly ....
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    "The worry for Labour is that a victory in this manner will be portrayed as unfair and lead to claims that it lacks legitimacy."

    I'll be too busy popping the champers.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    The funniest outcome is if this is combined with a Scottish Yes vote.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2014
    Betfair, maj:

    No maj 2.28
    Lab maj 3.3
    Con maj 3.7

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/market?marketId=1.101416490

    Betfair, most seats:

    Lab 1.95
    Con 2.04

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/market?marketId=1.101416490#/exchange/market?marketId=1.101416473&eventTypeId=2378961
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    Pulpstar said:

    The funniest outcome is if this is combined with a Scottish Yes vote.

    Quite so, and the prospect of such an outcome would considerably reinforce a Yes vote, which in turn would, after indy, reinforce it still more ...

    While on the subject of elections and therefore their strategists I was absolutely fascinated to discover that John McTernan (he of the Scottish Labour defeat inter aliis) was not only once a librarian but argued in favour of closing libraries (back in 2011, but I missed it at the time).

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/we-need-to-talk-about-john/


  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Betfair:

    Mexico 6/5
    Cameroon 29/10
    Draw 11/5

    Spain 4/5
    Netherlands 9/2
    Draw 12/5

    Chile 1/2
    Australia 8/1
    Draw 16/5

    https://www.betfair.com/sport
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    I've been tipping this bet for months.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2014
    "If Ladbroke punters have this right CON is heading for a win on votes – LAB on seats"

    Actually no. The Ladbrokes markets don't imply that at all.

    The individual Seats/Votes markets imply that it is very finely balanced, with Con having a small advantage in expected votes and Lab in expected seats. That is not the same thing as implying that CON is heading for a win on votes, LAB on seats. In fact the Most Votes/Most Seats doubles imply that there's a greater than 83% chance that that won't be the outcome. Most of the probability space is accounted for by either Lab or Con having both most seats and most votes.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    I do wonder if UKIP picking up votes/second places in Labour strongholds is going to make this issue even more pronounced.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Reports of clashes between ISIS and the Kurdish Peshmerga.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Its too early, most people will not bother betting on the election until Christmas.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I do wonder if UKIP picking up votes/second places in Labour strongholds is going to make this issue even more pronounced.

    I'd say UKIP is almost guaranteed to come second in Labour seats like Rotherham and Hartlepool given the local election results.
  • Easterross
    Easterross Posts: 1,915
    Punters frequently get it wrong. That is why others like Shadsy enjoy a comfortable lifestyle.
  • Blue_rog
    Blue_rog Posts: 2,019
    God I'm bored. I'm sitting in the lounge in Copenhagen waiting for my flight home. The cricket is boring (after tea) and I can't drink any more beer or they won't let me on the flight.
  • ThomasNashe
    ThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    RodCrosby said:

    Reports of clashes between ISIS and the Kurdish Peshmerga.

    I think ISIS will find that the Kurds but up rather more of a fight than the Iraqi army.
  • Blue_rog
    Blue_rog Posts: 2,019
    It is amusing to see all the Danish advert pop ups on the site though
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Jordan strikes with his third ball in Test cricket.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    Reports of clashes between ISIS and the Kurdish Peshmerga.

    Well the other inevitable has happened:

    RAGreeneCNN @RAGreeneCNN · 27m
    #Iran troops in #Iraq means: US and Iran are about to be military allies ... against Sunni extremists ... in Iraq. #UnintendedConsequences?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Blue_rog said:

    It is amusing to see all the Danish advert pop ups on the site though

    Yes I had that in Stockholm a few weeks ago.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited June 2014
    If you back £100 of Con Most Votes @ 5-6 and £100 of Labour Most seats @ 4-5

    Con Votes +83
    Lab Votes -100

    Lab Seats +80
    Con Seats -100

    Con Votes, Con Seats = -17
    Lab Votes, Lab Seats = -20

    Con Votes, Lab Seats = +163

    Giving you ~ 8-1 for your money - as the Lab Votes/Con Seats has been ruled out pretty much by the Ashcroft poll.

    Or just stake £3.03 on Lab Votes/Con Seats - though this is surely > 66-1 with the Ashcroft polling.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    I think this is the first time the USA has allied itself with an enemy since the Soviet Union in WW2.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    "If Ladbroke punters have this right CON is heading for a win on votes – LAB on seats"

    Actually no. The Ladbrokes markets don't imply that at all.

    The individual Seats/Votes markets imply that it is very finely balanced, with Con having a small advantage in expected votes and Lab in expected seats. That is not the same thing as implying that CON is heading for a win on votes, LAB on seats. In fact the Most Votes/Most Seats doubles imply that there's a greater than 83% chance that that won't be the outcome. Most of the probability space is accounted for by either Lab or Con having both most seats and most votes.

    Right. What Ladbrokes' prices imply is that Con most votes Lab most seats is the median expected outcome, in terms of vote share. i.e. a Tory lead of c. 1.5% on votes.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    The 5-1 here is poor value, unless you have a very, very high cost of capital
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    He is a vile creature pimping himself on any newspaper or TV station that will have him.
    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The funniest outcome is if this is combined with a Scottish Yes vote.

    Quite so, and the prospect of such an outcome would considerably reinforce a Yes vote, which in turn would, after indy, reinforce it still more ...

    While on the subject of elections and therefore their strategists I was absolutely fascinated to discover that John McTernan (he of the Scottish Labour defeat inter aliis) was not only once a librarian but argued in favour of closing libraries (back in 2011, but I missed it at the time).

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/we-need-to-talk-about-john/


  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    @Pulpstar - You might be able to do a smidgen better than that because both Bet365 and Stan James offer 10/11 on Lab Most Seats, although Stan James doesn't actually lay any bets as far as I know.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Netherlands are 5.8 with Betfair. Seems a bit high to me.

    http://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/market?id=1.112173612&exp=e
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    What would ISIS think of switching on the TV and seeing William Hague, John Kerry and Lara Croft standing on a platform together?
  • CopperSulphate
    CopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Pulpstar said:

    "The worry for Labour is that a victory in this manner will be portrayed as unfair and lead to claims that it lacks legitimacy."

    I'll be too busy popping the champers.

    Yeah right. No one batted an eyelid when Labour got a working majority after being 2.8% ahead of the Tories in 2005, whereas the Tories couldn't after being 7% ahead in 2010.

    I'm still hoping for the ludicrous spectacled of a coalition of the 2nd and 4th largest vote winners with half their seats in Scotland leaving as they declare independence.
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    AndyJS said:

    What would ISIS think of switching on the TV and seeing William Hague, John Kerry and Lara Croft standing on a platform together?

    "Eesh, they really never stop with these sequels"
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited June 2014
    Why take the 5/1 when the "middle" pays 8.9/1 - or as big as 13.4/1 using the 10/11 available elsewhere? If you're really worried you can cover on the 66/1.

    Actually, 13.4/1 looks pretty fair for a lead range of maybe 2-3%...

    EDIT: I see Pulpstar has already done the maths here...
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Obama is about to make a statement on Iraq.
    (not high hopes)
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    OT. Those who thought Farage was trying to undermine Helmer by having him stand (and lose) at the Newark By-election will perhaps have to rethink their position. Farage has stood down as head of the UKIP delegation of MEPs in Brussels in favour of Helmer.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Farage has stood down as head of the UKIP delegation of MEPs in Brussels in favour of Helmer.

    Hmm - related to a story yesterday, perhaps?
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AndyJS said:

    What would ISIS think of switching on the TV and seeing William Hague, John Kerry and Lara Croft standing on a platform together?

    The West aren't really serious about foreign policy any more?
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    BBC reporting a Liverpool Labour councillor has resigned over Ed's photo with the Sun. Not sure if that's as a Cllr or from the party.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2014
    ToryJim said:

    BBC reporting a Liverpool Labour councillor has resigned over Ed's photo with the Sun. Not sure if that's as a Cllr or from the party.

    The party:

    And a Labour councillor in Liverpool, Martin Cummins, has resigned from the party, suggesting Mr Miliband had "listened to unwise counsel in associating himself, and our party, with this degrading publication".

    Mr Cummins said: "Seeing Ed promoting the Sun has rocked me to my core."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27829958

    Seems a bizarre thing to get het up over after all those years when Labour and the Sun were bosom buddies, but there we go.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited June 2014
    Obama looking crushed. Just mouthing the words of his speech...
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Farage has stood down as head of the UKIP delegation of MEPs in Brussels in favour of Helmer.

    Hmm - related to a story yesterday, perhaps?
    Nope he did it at the beginning of the week.

    Besides when you take away the stupid spin from 'I'm not interested in facts' AveryLP, you are left with Farage having declared everything to the EU who were, after all, the authority responsible for the funds.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    ToryJim said:

    BBC reporting a Liverpool Labour councillor has resigned over Ed's photo with the Sun. Not sure if that's as a Cllr or from the party.

    The party:

    And a Labour councillor in Liverpool, Martin Cummins, has resigned from the party, suggesting Mr Miliband had "listened to unwise counsel in associating himself, and our party, with this degrading publication".

    Mr Cummins said: "Seeing Ed promoting the Sun has rocked me to my core."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27829958

    Seems a bizarre thing to get het up over after all those years when Labour and the Sun were bosom buddies, but there we go.
    Idiot. Good ridence Mr Cummins
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Hodges latest Ed is crap blog

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100276327/dont-blame-ed-milibands-advisers-for-his-sun-shambles-blame-ed/
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    @Pulpstar - You might be able to do a smidgen better than that because both Bet365 and Stan James offer 10/11 on Lab Most Seats, although Stan James doesn't actually lay any bets as far as I know.

    £110 staked at Bet365 @ 10-11 Labour Seats;
    £114.55 at Ladbrokes @ 5-6 Conservative Votes

    Yields £14.55 @ 13.43-1 Labour Seats, Conservative votes.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Tissue_Price said:

    Why take the 5/1 when the "middle" pays 8.9/1 - or as big as 13.4/1 using the 10/11 available elsewhere? If you're really worried you can cover on the 66/1.

    Actually, 13.4/1 looks pretty fair for a lead range of maybe 2-3%...

    EDIT: I see Pulpstar has already done the maths here...

    Done the maths and placed the appropriate bets.
  • Barnesian
    Barnesian Posts: 9,221
    The tectonic plates are moving in the Middle East, - quickly enough to qualify as an earthquake.

    I think the losers are going to be the Saudis/extremist Sunnis.

    The US support for Saudi has always been awkward, given the source of 9/11, human rights and lack of democracy in Saudi. The only reason for US Saudi support has been US dependence on Saudi oil. But with fracking that is changing fast. The US has to decide which side it is on - Sunni or Shia. (This all goes back to Muhammad's lack of a will explaining who his successor should be - moral: leave a will). Sunnis make up nearly 90% of Muslims but Shias are the majority in Iran and Iraq and are sizable in Lebanaon and Pakistan.

    I predict a covert alliance between US, Russia and Iran on the side of Shia to bring stability to the Middle East. The winners are Assad (pressure off), Iran (welcome to the club), Russia (welcome back but please behave) and the millions of innocent inhabitants of Iraq and Syria under extremist Sunni terrorist threat (and elsewhere).

    Consequences are that Saudi seeks nuclear weapons (and becomes the new Iran with international sanctions) Investors in oil shares do well, but arms suppliers to Saudi do not.

    Israel will need to make a quick reassessment but it has been a covert ally of Iran in the past and might welcome stability on its borders, and an Iran/US normalisation of relations will bring better predicitability.

  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    Maybe he is calculating he has nothing to gain by pulling out the Bush/Cheney chestnuts from the fire.
    RodCrosby said:

    Obama looking crushed. Just mouthing the words of his speech...

  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    @Pulpstar - You might be able to do a smidgen better than that because both Bet365 and Stan James offer 10/11 on Lab Most Seats, although Stan James doesn't actually lay any bets as far as I know.

    £110 staked at Bet365 @ 10-11 Labour Seats;
    £114.55 at Ladbrokes @ 5-6 Conservative Votes

    Yields £14.55 @ 13.43-1 Labour Seats, Conservative votes.
    13.4/1 looks like value. Bet365's price is under Betfair's (just). The logic is that the 5/6 Con Most Votes is even better value.
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    It also seems that Dan Hannan has finally accepted what many of us have known for a long time. Cameron is not seeking and will not get any significant renegotiation of the EU competencies prior to the referendum and will recommend we stay in based on the position as it is now.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100276242/david-cameron-has-dropped-the-idea-of-a-new-deal-the-referendum-will-be-on-the-existing-membership-terms/?fb

    I wonder how many of those Tories on here who said they would wait and see what came out of the negotiations will now accept the answer to that is nothing and will therefore back BOO?
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    S&P makes Osborne's weekend as it removes negative outlook to AAA rating http://t.co/VXx47WxYYY
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    ToryJim said:

    Hodges latest Ed is crap blog

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100276327/dont-blame-ed-milibands-advisers-for-his-sun-shambles-blame-ed/

    DH may be repetitive, but to be fair to him, Ed does keep on validating his thesis.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Richard_Tyndall said:


    Nope he did it at the beginning of the week.

    Besides when you take away the stupid spin from 'I'm not interested in facts' AveryLP, you are left with Farage having declared everything to the EU who were, after all, the authority responsible for the funds.

    Presumably he'd have had some notice or at least an indication in advance of the EC announcement.

    As for your second point, maybe. An alternative take on it is that either he was profiting personally - nothing wrong with that, perhaps, except it makes him a massive hypocrite - or alternatively that he was telling the truth and these funds were used as an undeclared contribution to UK political campaigning ('banks of computers').

    It may not be a big deal in the overall scheme of things, and it may be entirely innocent. That doesn't mean it's not exceptionally embarrassing for a party which pretends to be cleaner than the others.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    TGOHF said:

    S&P makes Osborne's weekend as it removes negative outlook to AAA rating http://t.co/VXx47WxYYY

    Glorious yellow boxes incoming :')
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    It also seems that Dan Hannan has finally accepted what many of us have known for a long time. Cameron is not seeking and will not get any significant renegotiation of the EU competencies prior to the referendum and will recommend we stay in based on the position as it is now.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100276242/david-cameron-has-dropped-the-idea-of-a-new-deal-the-referendum-will-be-on-the-existing-membership-terms/?fb

    I wonder how many of those Tories on here who said they would wait and see what came out of the negotiations will now accept the answer to that is nothing and will therefore back BOO?

    It's somewhat odd to declare imminent defeat before you've even suited up for the joust. I for one won't just take Hannan as gospel, I'm still going to see what happens.
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    RodCrosby said:

    Obama looking crushed. Just mouthing the words of his speech...

    I remember the speech Jimmy Carter gave after the failure of 'Operation Eagle Claw' - not a pleasant thing to see a grown man having to do.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    ISIS movie of them doing drivebys, executions, snipers, detonating IEDs, beheadings, door-to-door death squads, etc...(WARNING: EXTREMELY GRAPHIC)

    http://observers.france24.com/content/20140613-hollywood-fim-jihadist-propaganda-isis
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Richard_Tyndall said:



    I wonder how many of those Tories on here who said they would wait and see what came out of the negotiations will now accept the answer to that is nothing and will therefore back BOO?

    Being rational people, they'll wait and see, rather than speculating on the unknown outcome of negotiations which either haven't started at all, or if they have, are taking place in complete secrecy.

    Although I'm a great fan of Dan Hannan - the thinking man's BOOer - I was puzzled by that particular article, because he didn't explain what he thought had actually changed.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Well as I said not high hopes.
    Obama said that Iraq needs to have political reform first before any military aid, but will give full diplomatic support to them and opened the door for Iran to help.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:



    I wonder how many of those Tories on here who said they would wait and see what came out of the negotiations will now accept the answer to that is nothing and will therefore back BOO?

    Being rational people, they'll wait and see, rather than speculating on the unknown outcome of negotiations which either haven't started at all, or if they have, are taking place in complete secrecy.

    Although I'm a great fan of Dan Hannan - the thinking man's BOOer - I was puzzled by that particular article, because he didn't explain what he thought had actually changed.
    We should keep on reminding Kippers of that Hannan article, for only this part

    ....Plus, obviously, he [Cameron] represents our one chance of a referendum on leaving the EU.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    We should keep on reminding Kippers of that Hannan article, for only this part

    ....Plus, obviously, he [Cameron] represents our one chance of a referendum on leaving the EU.

    Well, quite. Hannan is that rare thing: a rational BOOer.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2014
    On Obama:
    What is the value of full diplomatic support when your capital is attacked by the enemy?

    This is essentially Obama's statement:

    pic.twitter.com/aurWkgc0YH
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Just bought and put on a cycling top, size 2xl.

    Makes you realise just how skinny the average cyclist is !
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    RodCrosby said:

    ISIS movie of them doing drivebys, executions, snipers, detonating IEDs, beheadings, door-to-door death squads, etc...(WARNING: EXTREMELY GRAPHIC)

    http://observers.france24.com/content/20140613-hollywood-fim-jihadist-propaganda-isis

    You seem to be getting very excited. It's Fukushima all over again.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2014
    Liverpool Labour councillor Martin Cummins has resigned the whip in protest at Ed's Sun photo.

    http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-labour-councillor-martin-cummins-7266443#.U5skvvBTAKI.twitter
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:



    I wonder how many of those Tories on here who said they would wait and see what came out of the negotiations will now accept the answer to that is nothing and will therefore back BOO?

    Being rational people, they'll wait and see, rather than speculating on the unknown outcome of negotiations which either haven't started at all, or if they have, are taking place in complete secrecy.

    Although I'm a great fan of Dan Hannan - the thinking man's BOOer - I was puzzled by that particular article, because he didn't explain what he thought had actually changed.
    We should keep on reminding Kippers of that Hannan article, for only this part

    ....Plus, obviously, he [Cameron] represents our one chance of a referendum on leaving the EU.
    You forgot the next Tory PM in 2020.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    My God Ed looks weak today. It is pitiful.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Chris Bennett ‏@Caesar_X 7 mins
    It's 2014: US and #Iran are discussing how to best protect #Baghdad - if Tom Clancy had written this we would have strung him up.
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:


    Nope he did it at the beginning of the week.

    Besides when you take away the stupid spin from 'I'm not interested in facts' AveryLP, you are left with Farage having declared everything to the EU who were, after all, the authority responsible for the funds.

    Presumably he'd have had some notice or at least an indication in advance of the EC announcement.

    As for your second point, maybe. An alternative take on it is that either he was profiting personally - nothing wrong with that, perhaps, except it makes him a massive hypocrite - or alternatively that he was telling the truth and these funds were used as an undeclared contribution to UK political campaigning ('banks of computers').

    It may not be a big deal in the overall scheme of things, and it may be entirely innocent. That doesn't mean it's not exceptionally embarrassing for a party which pretends to be cleaner than the others.
    Anyone who had followed UKIP's rise (and I accept that many would not have so I am not saying that as a criticism) would know that in the mid 2000's there was a huge stink in the pary precisely because of the cost of running those computerised systems based in Kent for targeting new members.

    Many in the party (including myself) felt it was not money well spent no matter what the source and it led to the resignation of a number of senior members who had challenged Farage over it and fell foul of his rather unique management style (and yes I am using a polite way of saying he behaved like a dictatorial git).

    So the question of whether or not they existed was settled a decade ago.

    Much as I would like to see Farage replaced as head of UKIP I can't see how this will change anyone's mind given that the Electoral Commission is already seen by many as anti-UKIP and incompetent to boot. Those who dislike UKIP will see their bias confirmed and those who dislike the Electoral Commission in its current form and who think there is an ongoing establishment witch-hunt against UKIP will see their own bias confirmed.

    Electorally it will make no difference unless it is used internally to dump Farage in which case it will probably help UKIP in the long run.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    TheWatcher said:

    RodCrosby said:

    ISIS movie of them doing drivebys, executions, snipers, detonating IEDs, beheadings, door-to-door death squads, etc...(WARNING: EXTREMELY GRAPHIC)

    http://observers.france24.com/content/20140613-hollywood-fim-jihadist-propaganda-isis

    You seem to be getting very excited. It's Fukushima all over again.
    Well Fukushima and the Tsunami are the worst and most documented disasters in human history.
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    We should keep on reminding Kippers of that Hannan article, for only this part

    ....Plus, obviously, he [Cameron] represents our one chance of a referendum on leaving the EU.

    Well, quite. Hannan is that rare thing: a rational BOOer.
    And I wonder at what point Hannan will realise that Cameron will keep us in the EU no matter what. His position within the Tory party will become untenable before we reach referendum day.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Speedy said:


    This is essentially Obama's statement:

    pic.twitter.com/aurWkgc0YH

    No, we can't...
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    We should keep on reminding Kippers of that Hannan article, for only this part

    ....Plus, obviously, he [Cameron] represents our one chance of a referendum on leaving the EU.

    Well, quite. Hannan is that rare thing: a rational BOOer.
    And I wonder at what point Hannan will realise that Cameron will keep us in the EU no matter what. His position within the Tory party will become untenable before we reach referendum day.
    Well he is rational enough to see that Edonomics plus no referendum is significantly worse for the entire country than a Con govt and a referendum - so he won't be going anywhere as long as there is a referendum in the next parly.

    Contrast with you - gagging to foist Ed on us for 5 years "for the greater good" - no thanks !
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2014
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    And I wonder at what point Hannan will realise that Cameron will keep us in the EU no matter what. His position within the Tory party will become untenable before we reach referendum day.

    Hannan won't realise that, because it is not true. If we stay in the EU, it will either be because Cameron doesn't get a majority (or isn't able to put together some other arrangement) so there's no referendum, or the referendum is lost by the BOOers.

    Indeed I have had this very conversation with Dan Hannan. He is under no illusion that the Out side will have to make a strong case - and to my mind, he personally does make a strong case - and that it won't necessarily be easy for them to win. But he also accepts that if voters don't accept that case, then that is their decision. He's a democrat, and would accept that. He just wants the chance to put the case, and he wants the voters to decide. That's an entirely honourable position.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2014
    Funny fact, the leader of ISIS Abu Bakr al Baghdadi has a masters an a phd, so we should call him Dr. Baghdadi (so like Dr.Evil not to anger him spending all those years at Evil University for people to call him mr.Thankyouverymuch ).
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited June 2014
    Not wishing to give in to hyperbole as it is a hard job, but either the refs are getting their fair share of groaners out early in this world cup, or the quality of the decisions will be very poor indeed. 2 valid goals not even close to being hard to determine ruled out by the officials in the first half alone of Mexico v Cameroon.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Good evening, everyone.

    Mr. kle4, done a post about stuff we learnt about Inquisition at E3. Not sure if you're too fussed (it's light on spoilers) but in case you're interested, it's here: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/dragon-age-inquisition-e3-news.html
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    TGOHF said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    We should keep on reminding Kippers of that Hannan article, for only this part

    ....Plus, obviously, he [Cameron] represents our one chance of a referendum on leaving the EU.

    Well, quite. Hannan is that rare thing: a rational BOOer.
    And I wonder at what point Hannan will realise that Cameron will keep us in the EU no matter what. His position within the Tory party will become untenable before we reach referendum day.
    Well he is rational enough to see that Edonomics plus no referendum is significantly worse for the entire country than a Con govt and a referendum - so he won't be going anywhere as long as there is a referendum in the next parly.

    Contrast with you - gagging to foist Ed on us for 5 years "for the greater good" - no thanks !
    Of course if I were gagging to foist Ed on you it would indeed only be for 5 years. You on the other hand are gagging to foist ever closer union with the EU on to the rest of us permanently.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Populus Online:

    Lab 35
    Con 32
    UKIP 15
    LibDem 8
    Green 5
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited June 2014
    SouthamObserver said:

    My God Ed looks weak today. It is pitiful.

    No, nobody has noticed because of the squirrels football. Bobafett says so.

    *Checks beeb website to see which is the most read story of the day*

  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:



    I wonder how many of those Tories on here who said they would wait and see what came out of the negotiations will now accept the answer to that is nothing and will therefore back BOO?

    Being rational people, they'll wait and see, rather than speculating on the unknown outcome of negotiations which either haven't started at all, or if they have, are taking place in complete secrecy.

    Although I'm a great fan of Dan Hannan - the thinking man's BOOer - I was puzzled by that particular article, because he didn't explain what he thought had actually changed.
    We should keep on reminding Kippers of that Hannan article, for only this part

    ....Plus, obviously, he [Cameron] represents our one chance of a referendum on leaving the EU.
    You forgot the next Tory PM in 2020.
    Presumably they mean in the next five years. However, that chance is ridiculously slim anyway. It's absurd people like Richard Nabavi feel we should throw the entire momentum of the eurosceptic movement, UKIP on the crux of entering parliament, for that small chance. Well it would be absurd if you ignore the fact that such people are arch-Tory loyalists, and UKIP voluntarily throwing in their hand would benefit their party massively.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    kle4 said:

    Not wishing to give in to hyperbole as it is a hard job, but either the refs are getting their fair share of groaners out early in this world cup, or the quality of the decisions will be very poor indeed. 2 valid goals not even close to being hard to determine ruled out by the officials in the first half alone of Mexico v Cameroon.

    LadbrokesPromos ‏@LadbrokesPromos 1m

    3 DISALLOWED GOALS?: It's 6/1 for Dos Santos to have another one ruled out! D

    pic.twitter.com/wGMzpOQsSF
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good evening, everyone.

    Mr. kle4, done a post about stuff we learnt about Inquisition at E3. Not sure if you're too fussed (it's light on spoilers) but in case you're interested, it's here: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/dragon-age-inquisition-e3-news.html

    Much appreciated! Have been meaning to catch up on the various E3 news. Can't say the idea of more crafting interests me - if I want to play Elder Scrolls I will play Elder Scrolls - but I do love the world building of Dragon Age. Qunari who are not 'Qunari', interesting.
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    edited June 2014
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    And I wonder at what point Hannan will realise that Cameron will keep us in the EU no matter what. His position within the Tory party will become untenable before we reach referendum day.

    Hannan won't realise that, because it is not true. If we stay in the EU, it will either be because Cameron doesn't get a majority (or isn't able to put together some other arrangement) so there's no referendum, or the referendum is lost by the BOOers.

    Indeed I have had this very conversation with Dan Hannan. He is under no illusion that the Out side will have to make a strong case - and to my mind, he personally does make a strong case - and that it won't necessarily be easy for them to win. But he also accepts that if voters don't accept that case, then that is their decision. He's a democrat, and would accept that. He just wants the chance to put the case, and he wants the voters to decide. That's an entirely honourable position.
    It is indeed true. Now I know that ever closer union within the EU doesn't actually bother you that much but I certainly don't look forward to it.

    There is a simple answer to all of this.

    Can you envisage any way in which Cameron will come back from his 'negotiations' and say "we didn't get enough, I recommend we leave the EU".

    Alternatively can you envisage him coming back and saying "we didn't get enough but I recommend we stay in".

    If you cannot see Cameron adopting either of those positions (and I certainly cannot) then the referendum is a sham. Cameron along with Labour and the Lib Dems will campaign for us to stay in no matter what the result of the negotiations and will make sure that the message is we got a good deal to back up their position.

    The real question the is what you and the rest of the Cameroon loyalists will do.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited June 2014
    Why are they playing this World Cup Match in Manchester, it is peeing it down.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Tim Gatt ‏@TimGattITV 1m

    Beckenbanned MT @itvnews Ex-Germany coach Franz Beckenbauer banned from 'all football activity' for 90 days by Fifa http://bit.ly/UzB9oA
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tim Gatt ‏@TimGattITV 1m

    Beckenbanned MT @itvnews Ex-Germany coach Franz Beckenbauer banned from 'all football activity' for 90 days by Fifa http://bit.ly/UzB9oA

    He's not allowed to watch the World Cup?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tim Gatt ‏@TimGattITV 1m

    Beckenbanned MT @itvnews Ex-Germany coach Franz Beckenbauer banned from 'all football activity' for 90 days by Fifa http://bit.ly/UzB9oA

    He's not allowed to watch the World Cup?
    Not sure.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Bloody Frogs, always causing trouble.

    The former France coach Raymond Domenech has said the current Les Bleus side is “partially responsible” for the bloodshed in Ukraine.

    France beat Ukraine 3-0 in the second leg of the World Cup play-off in November last year to pull off a thrilling 3-2 aggregate victory and qualify for the World Cup in Brazil. According to Domenech, the turnaround was such a shock to the Ukrainian people that it paved the way for the crisis situation currently engulfing the country.

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/13/france-world-cup-playoff-ukraine-crisis-raymond-domenech
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bloody Frogs, always causing trouble.

    The former France coach Raymond Domenech has said the current Les Bleus side is “partially responsible” for the bloodshed in Ukraine.

    France beat Ukraine 3-0 in the second leg of the World Cup play-off in November last year to pull off a thrilling 3-2 aggregate victory and qualify for the World Cup in Brazil. According to Domenech, the turnaround was such a shock to the Ukrainian people that it paved the way for the crisis situation currently engulfing the country.

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/13/france-world-cup-playoff-ukraine-crisis-raymond-domenech

    Is he mental?
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    All Blacks 1/8 to win tomorrow (at PP)? Really?

    I've backed the draw at 28/1.

    Iraq? If no one had invaded and Saddam had had a heart attack last week this is just about where we would be by now. Except without the US heavy weaponry.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. kle4, I really like the world-building as well.

    There was a little more to the Iron Bull, but I deleted it as it was a bit more spoilerish [not huge, but I prefer to err on the side of caution].

    Quite glad of the Inquisitor voice choices. Have to see who the Yankee doodles are.

    At least one area is bigger than the whole of Origins, which is rather enormous. I tend to quite like crafting, but we'll see how it works.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TGOHF said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    We should keep on reminding Kippers of that Hannan article, for only this part

    ....Plus, obviously, he [Cameron] represents our one chance of a referendum on leaving the EU.

    Well, quite. Hannan is that rare thing: a rational BOOer.
    And I wonder at what point Hannan will realise that Cameron will keep us in the EU no matter what. His position within the Tory party will become untenable before we reach referendum day.
    Well he is rational enough to see that Edonomics plus no referendum is significantly worse for the entire country than a Con govt and a referendum - so he won't be going anywhere as long as there is a referendum in the next parly.

    Contrast with you - gagging to foist Ed on us for 5 years "for the greater good" - no thanks !
    Of course if I were gagging to foist Ed on you it would indeed only be for 5 years. You on the other hand are gagging to foist ever closer union with the EU on to the rest of us permanently.
    Why are you so scared of a referendum ?
  • Stuart_Dickson
    Stuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Lib Dems lengthening in Colchester (LD Maj = 6,982)

    LD 2/9 (from 1/5)
    Con 3/1 (from 7/2)
    UKIP 33/1 (from 66/1)
    Lab 50/1 (n/c)
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tim Gatt ‏@TimGattITV 1m

    Beckenbanned MT @itvnews Ex-Germany coach Franz Beckenbauer banned from 'all football activity' for 90 days by Fifa http://bit.ly/UzB9oA

    Fill his street with cans and arrest the Hun if he kicks one.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Lib Dems lengthening in Colchester (LD Maj = 6,982)

    LD 2/9 (from 1/5)
    Con 3/1 (from 7/2)
    UKIP 33/1 (from 66/1)
    Lab 50/1 (n/c)

    Well if they score a mighty 6% they can kiss it bye bye like 40 plus of their other seats
  • Stuart_Dickson
    Stuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited June 2014
    Lib Dems lengthening in North Cornwall (LD Maj = 2,981)

    LD 4/5 (from 4/6)
    Con EVS (from 11/10)
    UKIP 25/1 (from 33/1)
    100 bar
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    And I wonder at what point Hannan will realise that Cameron will keep us in the EU no matter what. His position within the Tory party will become untenable before we reach referendum day.

    Hannan won't realise that, because it is not true. If we stay in the EU, it will either be because Cameron doesn't get a majority (or isn't able to put together some other arrangement) so there's no referendum, or the referendum is lost by the BOOers.

    Indeed I have had this very conversation with Dan Hannan. He is under no illusion that the Out side will have to make a strong case - and to my mind, he personally does make a strong case - and that it won't necessarily be easy for them to win. But he also accepts that if voters don't accept that case, then that is their decision. He's a democrat, and would accept that. He just wants the chance to put the case, and he wants the voters to decide. That's an entirely honourable position.
    It is indeed true. Now I know that ever closer union within the EU doesn't actually bother you that much but I certainly don't look forward to it.

    There is a simple answer to all of this.

    Can you envisage any way in which Cameron will come back from his 'negotiations' and say "we didn't get enough, I recommend we leave the EU".

    Alternatively can you envisage him coming back and saying "we didn't get enough but I recommend we stay in".

    If you cannot see Cameron adopting either of those positions (and I certainly cannot) then the referendum is a sham. Cameron along with Labour and the Lib Dems will campaign for us to stay in no matter what the result of the negotiations and will make sure that the message is we got a good deal to back up their position.

    The real question the is what you and the rest of the Cameroon loyalists will do.
    Richard has remained notably aloof when you ask him what the minimum level of repatriation/reform needed would be for him to feel we should stay in the EU. It's almost like he's waiting for the official position of the Tory party.

    I also believe he once said that if the bonus cap went through on the financial sector he'd support leaving. I asked him once about this, and I think his response was that he's waiting to see if it will be repatriated by Cameron.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. kle4, I really like the world-building as well.

    There was a little more to the Iron Bull, but I deleted it as it was a bit more spoilerish [not huge, but I prefer to err on the side of caution].

    Quite glad of the Inquisitor voice choices. Have to see who the Yankee doodles are.

    At least one area is bigger than the whole of Origins, which is rather enormous. I tend to quite like crafting, but we'll see how it works.

    Indeed. I imagine if I don't care to do much with that aspect it won't be mandatory, and I'm prepared to give the developers the benefit of the doubt on testing out new features for their consistent high quality of output, and the companion stuff, usually among the best thing Bioware do I think, is already piquing my interest. Good stuff.
  • Stuart_Dickson
    Stuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Lib Dems lengthening in South East Cornwall (Con Maj = 3,220)

    Con 1/8 (n/c)
    LD 11/2 (from 9/2)
    UKIP 20/1 (from 25/1)
    100 bar
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    England's declaration was incorrect I think - we should have tried to push over 600.

    The game is essentially all about the follow on. If Sri Lanka avoid it, they draw.
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited June 2014
    Alistair Carmichael is charging £20 to hear him defend the No campaign.

    twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/477400576675041280/photo/1
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    And I wonder at what point Hannan will realise that Cameron will keep us in the EU no matter what. His position within the Tory party will become untenable before we reach referendum day.

    Hannan won't realise that, because it is not true. If we stay in the EU, it will either be because Cameron doesn't get a majority (or isn't able to put together some other arrangement) so there's no referendum, or the referendum is lost by the BOOers.

    Indeed I have had this very conversation with Dan Hannan. He is under no illusion that the Out side will have to make a strong case - and to my mind, he personally does make a strong case - and that it won't necessarily be easy for them to win. But he also accepts that if voters don't accept that case, then that is their decision. He's a democrat, and would accept that. He just wants the chance to put the case, and he wants the voters to decide. That's an entirely honourable position.
    There is a simple answer to all of this.

    Can you envisage any way in which Cameron will come back from his 'negotiations' and say "we didn't get enough, I recommend we leave the EU".
    The idea that people could think that the EU would make any significant, substantive offering in such scenario is, to put it mildly, extremely optimistic I think. It's a try not to make it any worse situation for those either positively for or resignedly for staying in, not actually fixing things. I see no evidence the EU bureaucracy would think there is something to fix that would necessitate making concession to the UK or anyone else.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    edited June 2014
    old_labour said:

    Alistair Carmichael is charging £20 to hear him defend the No campaign.

    twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/477400576675041280/photo/1

    I think you'll find his job as a public servant doesn't include political activities.
This discussion has been closed.

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