politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How British politics might have been different If Gordon Ba

YouGov's final 2010 General Election poll, with a sample size of 6,483, had it as Con 35, Lab 28 and LD 28

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/today_uk_import/YG-Archives-Pol-Suntrackers-100505.pdf

ICM's final poll on the 2010 election with a sample size of 2,022 (with 1,527 giving a response)

Was Con 36, Lab 28, LD 26

http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2010_may_guardian_prediction_poll.pdf

So ladies and gentleman, we can conclude, size isn't important, it's all about the girth quality.

MikeK said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov's final 2010 General Election poll, with a sample size of 6,483, had it as Con 35, Lab 28 and LD 28

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/today_uk_import/YG-Archives-Pol-Suntrackers-100505.pdf

So what !!!!!!!! Are you a paid agent of YouGov? If so, TSE, you should declare an interest.

I'm making a point to Bobafett, see below.

Edit: And Yes I do get paid by YouGov (usually 50p per survey I fill in, I've only done probably six in the last year, all politics related, I refuse to do their tedious, ennui inducing brand index polls)

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

dr_spyn said:

May's profile rises..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-27828845

I wonder who leaked this?

Can't blame Mrs May for that. Prisons are Chris Grayling's responsibility.

A distinction that might be lost on most leadership voters, as may have occurred to whoever leaked it (or provided the off-the-record briefing).

Nah, remember her quote

‘It used to be a joke that I lock them up and Ken Clarke lets them out, now they say I lock them up and Chris Grayling throws away the key.’

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/11/chris-grayling-gets-an-easy-ride-over-reoffending-rates/

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

dr_spyn said:

May's profile rises..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-27828845

I wonder who leaked this?

Can't blame Mrs May for that. Prisons are Chris Grayling's responsibility.

A distinction that might be lost on most leadership voters, as may have occurred to whoever leaked it (or provided the off-the-record briefing).

Nah, remember her quote

‘It used to be a joke that I lock them up and Ken Clarke lets them out, now they say I lock them up and Chris Grayling throws away the key.’

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/11/chris-grayling-gets-an-easy-ride-over-reoffending-rates/

Cui bono? If this was leaked to damage a politician, then May is surely the target. No-one thinks Grayling can be next leader.

We're the party that elected IDS.......

I see Ladbrokes have a market up on the first MP to be recalled.

I'm going to have dip on the LDs and UKIP at 16/1 and 25/1

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/first-recalled-mp-party

Chris Grayling 80/1 to be next Conservative Leader.

Richard_Nabavi said:

ToryJim said:

Ed Miliband to apologise for posing with the Sun.

Look on the bright side, at least he didn't pose topless.

Or naked.

It's Friday the 13th, not the the 1st of April. Surely Miliband apologising is a spoof?

@TSE - I see Ladbrokes have a market up on the first MP to be recalled.

er, what does 'recalled' actually mean in this context, please?

SimonStClare said:

@TSE - I see Ladbrokes have a market up on the first MP to be recalled.

er, what does 'recalled' actually mean in this context, please?

The coalition announced plans for a recall bill in the Queen's speech.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/06/04/queens-speech-recall-bill_n_5443659.html

Morris_Dancer said:

It's Friday the 13th, not the the 1st of April. Surely Miliband apologising is a spoof?

Mr Dancer, don't think so HuffPo have the story too

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/06/13/the-sun-free-paper-world-cup-miliband_n_5491041.html?utm_hp_ref=tw

Morris_Dancer said:

It's Friday the 13th, not the the 1st of April. Surely Miliband apologising is a spoof?

A sample retweet I was sent this morning by a left of centre friend:

"Miliband has to go. He really, really has to go."

This has hurt him with one of the few constituencies that still had the time of day for him. As Patrick Wintour put it a few minutes ago:

"Hillsborough inquest on. Phone hacking jury out. Miliband poses with Murdoch's flagship paper the Sun. How to trash your brand in 3 minutes."

@TSE - cheers!

Richard_Nabavi said:

ToryJim said:

Morris_Dancer said:

It's Friday the 13th, not the the 1st of April. Surely Miliband apologising is a spoof?

Mr Dancer, don't think so HuffPo have the story too

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/06/13/the-sun-free-paper-world-cup-miliband_n_5491041.html?utm_hp_ref=tw

I think this is a strong contender for the Silliest Resignation Demand of 2014:

But Labour Cllr Peter Mitchell has said Miliband should resign. “He should be thoroughly ashamed of his actions. I think he should consider his position as leader of Labour Party," he told the Liverpool Echo.

It's a touch over the top, but then it is a Liverpool Cllr so I think you can understand the anger behind it even if carrying on a vendetta against a newspaper is silly. I mean when the same newspaper endorsed Blair in the 90s did we get this level of hysteria or is it because they no longer back Labour that this venom is now unleashed.

Classic fuck up by Ed Miliband here. The Sun is like death to alot of Labour voters around Liverpool and they have very strong feelings on it.

Now he is apologising he looks like he is being pushed around and possibly unpatriotic - is he not "Getting behind our England ?"

It's a good job for him there is a world cup on so noone will particularly notice.

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

ToryJim said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

ToryJim said:

Ed Miliband to apologise for posing with the Sun.

Look on the bright side, at least he didn't pose topless.

This is true, or in one of these swimsuits.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-life/10894876/Spornosexuality-If-this-is-what-spornosexual-means-then-god-help-us-all.html

Where can I get one?

How can I put this tastefully, aren't those going to be a risk, when a chap gets excited, I mean at at beach, there's going to a plethora of females in revealing outfits....

I think the 2 chaps in the picture may be reasonably resistant to the charms of the ladies. Looking at themselves in the mirror otoh...

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

ToryJim said:

Morris_Dancer said:

It's Friday the 13th, not the the 1st of April. Surely Miliband apologising is a spoof?

Mr Dancer, don't think so HuffPo have the story too

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/06/13/the-sun-free-paper-world-cup-miliband_n_5491041.html?utm_hp_ref=tw

I think this is a strong contender for the Silliest Resignation Demand of 2014:

But Labour Cllr Peter Mitchell has said Miliband should resign. “He should be thoroughly ashamed of his actions. I think he should consider his position as leader of Labour Party," he told the Liverpool Echo.

To be fair, The Sun evokes strong emotions in Liverpool.

It is a city that wallows in self-pity.

Mr Nabavi, this looks like one of those scenarios where the initial decision did minor damage but the row back causes more. Basically all the upset people would traipse to the polling booth next year and vote Labour like automata. By creating a huge fuss and extracting an apology under duress some floating voters may well be put off because Labour look ridiculous.

"Tributes have been paid to the former leader of Newark and Sherwood District Council, Mr Stan Crawford, who has died."

http://newarkadvertiser.co.uk/articles/news/Stan-Crawford-dies-Former-Newark-and-Sherwoo

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

ToryJim said:

Morris_Dancer said:

It's Friday the 13th, not the the 1st of April. Surely Miliband apologising is a spoof?

Mr Dancer, don't think so HuffPo have the story too

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/06/13/the-sun-free-paper-world-cup-miliband_n_5491041.html?utm_hp_ref=tw

I think this is a strong contender for the Silliest Resignation Demand of 2014:

But Labour Cllr Peter Mitchell has said Miliband should resign. “He should be thoroughly ashamed of his actions. I think he should consider his position as leader of Labour Party," he told the Liverpool Echo.

To be fair, The Sun evokes strong emotions in Liverpool.

It is a city that wallows in self-pity.

Not sure about that, but it is a depressing crud hole. The arse of England.

BobaFett said:

ToryJim said:

Mr Nabavi, this looks like one of those scenarios where the initial decision did minor damage but the row back causes more. Basically all the upset people would traipse to the polling booth next year and vote Labour like automata. By creating a huge fuss and extracting an apology under duress some floating voters may well be put off because Labour look ridiculous.

Footie's on telly. Who cares?

People that aren't mindless morons?
It's not like people can't enjoy the kickball AND have other interests/concerns

Smarmeron said:

@dyedwoolie

" The arse of England."

Liverpool usurping your Title? You should sue!

No, I happily conceed to a worthy winner

SimonStClare said:

Pulpstar said:

Classic fuck up by Ed Miliband here. The Sun is like death to alot of Labour voters around Liverpool and they have very strong feelings on it.

I believe only last week Liverpudlian postmen were refusing to deliver 'free' copies of the SUN, - strikes me as very odd timing by ED that he should choose to promote the premier Red-Top.

He's not going to lose any seats in Liverpool so it's not really a problem.

Pulpstar said:

dyedwoolie said:

SimonStClare said:

Pulpstar said:

Classic fuck up by Ed Miliband here. The Sun is like death to alot of Labour voters around Liverpool and they have very strong feelings on it.

I believe only last week Liverpudlian postmen were refusing to deliver 'free' copies of the SUN, - strikes me as very odd timing by ED that he should choose to promote the premier Red-Top.

He's not going to lose any seats in Liverpool so it's not really a problem.

There is the Wirral West marginal near there though.

Yeah, true, but it's not going to hurt him. People forget easily. What will hurt him is the policy vacuum and lack of ambition or direction. And his unsuitability for high office.

dyedwoolie said:

SimonStClare said:

Pulpstar said:

Classic fuck up by Ed Miliband here. The Sun is like death to alot of Labour voters around Liverpool and they have very strong feelings on it.

I believe only last week Liverpudlian postmen were refusing to deliver 'free' copies of the SUN, - strikes me as very odd timing by ED that he should choose to promote the premier Red-Top.

He's not going to lose any seats in Liverpool so it's not really a problem.

Well that must be a great relief for Ed. – not sure how the ‘hapless dork insults Liverpool’ translates further abroad though.

Labour MPs in Liverpool are just doing what they need to in order to protect their own backs.
I see horror upon horrors that Ewan (?)Blair is favourite for selection in Bootle. How dirty will labourites feel voting for him? Can we have some opinions from the please?

Flightpath said:

Labour MPs in Liverpool are just doing what they need to in order to protect their own backs.
I see horror upon horrors that Ewan (?)Blair is favourite for selection in Bootle. How dirty will labourites feel voting for him? Can we have some opinions from the please?

Did they complain when the Sun endorsed Blair in the 97 election? If so was it quite so vociferous? I can't remember there being such a hooha then but it's a long time ago.

Flightpath said:

Labour MPs in Liverpool are just doing what they need to in order to protect their own backs.
I see horror upon horrors that Ewan (?)Blair is favourite for selection in Bootle. How dirty will labourites feel voting for him? Can we have some opinions from the please?

Is that true ?

Benton looks to have been a very socially conservative Labour MP - I don't think UKIP will win the seat, the mountain is just too large to scale but sticking Blair in would probably make it a favourite for lowest turnout seat in the UK.

TheWatcher said:

isam said:

More convinced than ever that He is among us

Who He?

t.I'm

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jim, Labour didn't seem to mind the Sun, until the paper switched in 2007 or 2008 (I think) during the Labour Party conference, and an angry Liverpudlian tore the paper up on stage.

Thus showing the world how thin skinned you are and unable to take a knock or criticism.

To consider that a party has a right to the undivided loyalty of an independent newspaper is close to a totalitarian view. It is the role (much abrogated) of a free press to probe and question political parties and individuals.

Newspapers should support them very sparingly.

philiph said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jim, Labour didn't seem to mind the Sun, until the paper switched in 2007 or 2008 (I think) during the Labour Party conference, and an angry Liverpudlian tore the paper up on stage.

Thus showing the world how thin skinned you are and unable to take a knock or criticism.

To consider that a party has a right to the undivided loyalty of an independent newspaper is close to a totalitarian view. It is the role (much abrogated) of a free press to probe and question political parties and individuals.

Newspapers should support them very sparingly.

Its a Labour characteristic though, watch the 83, 87 and 92 election results shows and every Labour MP blames the lack of votes on the media. It's instructive.

TheWatcher said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

isam said:

More convinced than ever that He is among us

Who He?

t.I'm

Doin' the Lambeth Walk.

Too enthusiastically!

BobaFett said:

@ToryJim

It is you who is wishful thinking.

Today's news is tomorrow's chip paper. An appropriate idiom!

Any one story of its self won't make much difference but the cumulative effect is the problem. That cumulation can make certain stories bigger than they'd otherwise be. This story feeds into a couple of very bad Ed narratives, that he's weird and that he's weak. It just adds to all the negativity swirling around him. It won't necessarily be in the forefront of people's minds, but it will seep into the background.

isam said:

This could really put my manor on the map!

Boris in Hx & Up????

http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/politics/will_boris_johnson_run_in_hornchurch_and_upminster_1_3641089

PP are 18/1in a 175% book!!!

18-1 sounds ok but 175% book - hmm...

That alternative history ... well .. I've done no work this morning. I think I got where it was going about three entries before it got there. Brutal stuff.

Charles said:

BobaFett said:

Charles said:

BobaFett said:

Charles said:

BobaFett said:

Morning all. Belter of a day in London Town.

Surprised there has not been more discussion about YouGov, which shows the trend of higher Labour scores continuing. Be interesting to have a thread on this at some stage, looking at the reasons behind it.

One poll and all that, remember ;-)

You just had 2 with a 2pt lead...

Look at the shares not the lead Charles. PB Golden Rule.

I know. Labour still around 36. I don't recall them being meaningfully lower except on a couple of occasions

Be interesting to compare May's polling with that of June. UKPR did an analysis on this the other day. It may surprise you.

Doesn't work on my bb. Can you summarise?

bigjohnowls said:

See the june YGs have Lab leads of 6,4.5,6,4,6,2,2,6.

Or in PB Tories minds 2,2 and six outliers.

Sure - probably bouncing around 5pt. But hasn't that been driven by Con-UKIP relative shares rather than a wave of enthusiasm for the Labour party?

You are right Charles. No noticeable increase in Labour vote at all
22 YG polls in last month
first 11 had LAB on36,34,35,36,37,37,35,34,35,34,36 average LAB% 35.36% (low 34 high 37)
the 2nd 11 LAB % was 38,36,36,36,37,37,37,3737,36,38 av LAB% 36.73% (low 36 high 38)

But take out the 9 outliers from last 11 and no movement at all LOL

The Mayor of Venice has resigned

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27832890

Smarmeron said:

Call to arms by a cleric to the Shia ( Beeb breaking)
There are already groups heading out to protect their shrines, this might not end well

Given that the Shia are a clear majority of the population, then presumably they'll prevail. It could turn into a bloodbath.

Sean_F said:

bigjohnowls said:

Charles said:

BobaFett said:

Charles said:

BobaFett said:

Charles said:

BobaFett said:

Morning all. Belter of a day in London Town.

Surprised there has not been more discussion about YouGov, which shows the trend of higher Labour scores continuing. Be interesting to have a thread on this at some stage, looking at the reasons behind it.

One poll and all that, remember ;-)

You just had 2 with a 2pt lead...

Look at the shares not the lead Charles. PB Golden Rule.

I know. Labour still around 36. I don't recall them being meaningfully lower except on a couple of occasions

Be interesting to compare May's polling with that of June. UKPR did an analysis on this the other day. It may surprise you.

Doesn't work on my bb. Can you summarise?

bigjohnowls said:

See the june YGs have Lab leads of 6,4.5,6,4,6,2,2,6.

Or in PB Tories minds 2,2 and six outliers.

Sure - probably bouncing around 5pt. But hasn't that been driven by Con-UKIP relative shares rather than a wave of enthusiasm for the Labour party?

You are right Charles. No noticeable increase in Labour vote at all
22 YG polls in last month
first 11 had LAB on36,34,35,36,37,37,35,34,35,34,36 average LAB% 35.36% (low 34 high 37)
the 2nd 11 LAB % was 38,36,36,36,37,37,37,3737,36,38 av LAB% 36.73% (low 36 high 38)

But take out the 9 outliers from last 11 and no movement at all LOL

A whole 1.37%

With the firm that overstates Labour by 2.1 compared to the average

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/06/

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jim, if Venice is independent, surely they should have a Doge?

Hmm. Orsoni... I wonder if he's related to the Orsini[sp], one of two factions who, in the Renaissance, were responsible for the creation of many popes...

I think the Orsini family of Roman nobility still exists. However, Orsini is also quite a common surname.

AndyJS said:

Apparently the Iraqi government lost control of Fallujah back in January but the media didn't do a very good job of reporting it at the time.

Fallujah is just 36 miles from Baghdad.

The International Airport at Baghdad is even nearer.

ToryJim said:

dyedwoolie said:

Pulpstar said:

dyedwoolie said:

SimonStClare said:

Pulpstar said:

Classic fuck up by Ed Miliband here. The Sun is like death to alot of Labour voters around Liverpool and they have very strong feelings on it.

I believe only last week Liverpudlian postmen were refusing to deliver 'free' copies of the SUN, - strikes me as very odd timing by ED that he should choose to promote the premier Red-Top.

He's not going to lose any seats in Liverpool so it's not really a problem.

There is the Wirral West marginal near there though.

Yeah, true, but it's not going to hurt him. People forget easily. What will hurt him is the policy vacuum and lack of ambition or direction. And his unsuitability for high office.

Don't you think being held hostage by backbenchers with a complete lack of perspective impacts on his suitability.

Yes, amongst many other unmentioned things

Mr Dancer, Napoleon got rid of the Doges didn't he?

Didn't the Orsini have a huge feud with the Borgias?

I note that (western) syria is out the news almost completely at the moment. But there is a war on between Assad and rebel forces still.

Assad well on top at the moment I assume ?