politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : June 12th 2014

MrJones said:

ToryJim said:

Iran has already got troops in Iraq

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10896670/Obama-ponders-as-Iran-sends-troops-to-Iraq.html

yeah the question is whether it's a company of hard lads or actual brigades on the move

if Maliki throws in with Iran to avoid getting Gadaffied with a bayonet then it'll be brigades and the US state department will have blood flowing out the doors

shouldn't laugh really as it's serious but in terms of unintended consequences this has the possibility of taking the world record

then again maybe he'll just panic and run and the Isis people take over in the chaos

Who do you think can save america's bacon right now? Only Iran is willing to do so.

Speedy said:

MrJones said:

ToryJim said:

Iran has already got troops in Iraq

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10896670/Obama-ponders-as-Iran-sends-troops-to-Iraq.html

yeah the question is whether it's a company of hard lads or actual brigades on the move

if Maliki throws in with Iran to avoid getting Gadaffied with a bayonet then it'll be brigades and the US state department will have blood flowing out the doors

shouldn't laugh really as it's serious but in terms of unintended consequences this has the possibility of taking the world record

then again maybe he'll just panic and run and the Isis people take over in the chaos

Who do you think can save america's bacon right now? Only Iran is willing to do so.

Their price will be too high.

RodCrosby said:

Rumours of fighting near Abu Ghraib and Baghdad Airport. ISIS appear to be approaching from the west, rather than the north.

Well they have surrounded the city from 3 sides, they can pick any of the 3 they like.

How ironic if Israeli machinations lead to a Shia arc led by Iran dominating the Middle East. Israeli foreign policy has two aims in fracturing their neighbours along racial and religious lines as well as drawing Western armed forces in. Epic fail despite initial success.

Socrates said:

Speedy said:

MrJones said:

ToryJim said:

Iran has already got troops in Iraq

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10896670/Obama-ponders-as-Iran-sends-troops-to-Iraq.html

yeah the question is whether it's a company of hard lads or actual brigades on the move

if Maliki throws in with Iran to avoid getting Gadaffied with a bayonet then it'll be brigades and the US state department will have blood flowing out the doors

shouldn't laugh really as it's serious but in terms of unintended consequences this has the possibility of taking the world record

then again maybe he'll just panic and run and the Isis people take over in the chaos

Who do you think can save america's bacon right now? Only Iran is willing to do so.

America doesn't need anyone to save its bacon. Iraq's the one in trouble. If the Americans choose to step it will be for Iraq's benefit and for the world's protection against a terrorist base.

Do you think Baghdad falling will not be a disaster (at least political) for the USA?
And who can prevent that? By the time the americans decide it might be too late, only the iranians are willing to prevent it as of now.

another_richard said:

Am I the only person who thinks Adrian Chiles is a tedious tub of lard ?

No.

That ref would fit in well as an itv commentator, now that is a 'good idea' @a townsend

I just watched a different series of tub of lards on CNN, the iraqi foreign minister. (No wonder they are losing)

I'm astonished Croatia team managed to keep composure to not get 1 or 2 red cards

Richard_Tyndall said:

The Mail attacks on Cameron and Hague are just ludicrous. It is no secret I am not a fan of Cameron's (if you will please excuse the understatement) but he was pushing for action in Syria and did everything he could to try and make it happen. The fact that he did the decent thing and unlike Blair made sure there was a proper informed debate - which he then lost - is to his credit and to then claim he has done nothing is just plain wrong.

I think the most egregious thing is the idea he can't go out for a meal with his wife and that Hague shouldn't be attending a long planned event to deal with an important issue long neglected. I'm not saying the government response to the situation is brilliant, or even existent, but I think they can be forgiven given it looks like half of Iraq has capitulated in a matter of a day. I suspect they are trying to get a handle on what is going on before diving in with both feet.

foxinsoxuk said:

Foxinsox jr has predicted via his subbutteo set:

Mexico 1 Cameroon 0
Chile 2 Australia 0
Spain 1 Netherlands 1

I have paid him his winnings tonight (minus a small deduction for the beer fund)

Keeping the beer fund afloat is important. I must say though I'm missing the psychic predictions of Paul the Octopus.

Last night I reported that one of Saddam's old lieutenants was about to come out of the shadows. And so today the media is reporting that Izzat Ibrahim al Douri, a senior Baathist is one of the leaders of the Sunni march.

Be clear at this point that ISIS probably do not even represent the largest part of the Sunni effort right now. A lot of tribes, some of whom joined the 'Awakening' to take on the radicals a few years back are in play alongside those same radicals.

Many of the actions closer to Bagdhad from the west and south west are Sunni tribes at work. They are, however, taking some relatively friendly territory on the way south and east to Bagdhad.

This is a sectarian move, not purely a Jihadist one. The Maliki govt knows this and has been aware of it for a while. The idea that ISIS alone could just take Bagdhad or indeed make the extent of the current land grab in anyway permanent is laughable. That government has pursued a heavily sectarian policy and this is the counter. If anyone doesn't believe it, ask yourself why the Iraqi government have opened a new co-ordinating location deep in the Shi'te owned south. If things get that bad thats the retrench point. Not only that, as I mentioned yesterday the government forces are busy running curfews and arresting people in Sunni districts of the capital.

The Iranians have turned up to look at what they can do, the US work effort will likely be symbolic. The external people to watch apart from the Iranians are the Turks, who are gearing for action if they see fit.

Hislop has previously revealed himself as a LibDem sympathiser.

IDS calm under fire. He has grown on me.

AveryLP said:

Socrates said:

I see the Question Time panel is four lefties and one rightie tonight.

I am not sure I would describe Ian Hislop as a leftie.

Do you think IDS is?

Oliver_PB said:

How can you take the Conservatives seriously on immigration when the head of the Bank of England is an immigrant? Was there really not a single qualified British person for that job?

Yeah, they've always been like that. Just look at Churchill's War Cabinet. Lord Beaverbrook was another bloody Canadian, and he held several posts.

Y0kel said:

Last night I reported that one of Saddam's old lieutenants was about to come out of the shadows. And so today the media is reporting that Izzat Ibrahim al Douri, a senior Baathist is one of the leaders of the Sunni march.

Be clear at this point that ISIS probably do not even represent the largest part of the Sunni effort right now. A lot of tribes, some of whom joined the 'Awakening' to take on the radicals a few years back are in play alongside those same radicals.

Many of the actions closer to Bagdhad from the west and south west are Sunni tribes at work. They are, however, taking some relatively friendly territory on the way south and east to Bagdhad.

This is a sectarian move, not purely a Jihadist one. The Maliki govt knows this and has been aware of it for a while. The idea that ISIS alone could just take Bagdhad or indeed make the extent of the current land grab in anyway permanent is laughable. That government has pursued a heavily sectarian policy and this is the counter. If anyone doesn't believe it, ask yourself why the Iraqi government have opened a new co-ordinating location deep in the Shi'te owned south. If things get that bad thats the retrench point. Not only that, as I mentioned yesterday the government forces are busy running curfews and arresting people in Sunni districts of the capital.

The Iranians have turned up to look at what they can do, the US work effort will likely be symbolic. The external people to watch apart from the Iranians are the Turks, who are gearing for action if they see fit.

A great post Y0kel.

My prediction is that the Turks will draw in the US under the cover of NATO.

The crisis in Iraq may also provide the basis for solving unfinished business in Syria.

If anything is likely to get Obama going it will be getting one over Putin. Since Russia's annexation of Crimea the reluctance to tread on their toes in Syria may now have evaporated.

Dr Sox

If Hislop has publicly identified with the Lib Dems it will have been a flag of convenience.

He is Tunbridge Wells Tory through and through.

foxinsoxuk said:

Hislop has previously revealed himself as a LibDem sympathiser.

IDS calm under fire. He has grown on me.

AveryLP said:

Socrates said:

I see the Question Time panel is four lefties and one rightie tonight.

I am not sure I would describe Ian Hislop as a leftie.

Do you think IDS is?

He described himself as Rodesian; though to be fair always saw that as a British variant.

ToryJim said:

foxinsoxuk said:

That Bomber Harris was a blooming foreigner too...

Richard_Nabavi said:

Oliver_PB said:

How can you take the Conservatives seriously on immigration when the head of the Bank of England is an immigrant? Was there really not a single qualified British person for that job?

Yeah, they've always been like that. Just look at Churchill's War Cabinet. Lord Beaverbrook was another bloody Canadian, and he had several posts.

Not unless Cheltenham seceded at some point and nobody told us.

AndyJS said:

Another armed robber with a life sentence is on the run from an open prison:

http://news.sky.com/story/1281272/armed-robber-on-the-run-from-open-prison

It is thought to be the second time he has escaped from an open prison.

WTF?

MrJones said:

So a Sunni rebellion against the Shia government being misreported in the West to try and bounce Iraq 2.0.

That's makes a lot more sense than 800 dudes in Humvees blitzing half a country.

I suspect the true picture is both and neither. ISIS are clearly involved somehow but there has got to be more to it. There's been a sense for some time that Maliki isn't the person you'd necessarily want in a charged situation like Iraq. The danger is that it escalates into wider regional destabilisation, then we could really be in a mess. The very very last thing we need is trouble brewing for the Saudis etc

AndyJS said:

Another armed robber with a life sentence is on the run from an open prison:

http://news.sky.com/story/1281272/armed-robber-on-the-run-from-open-prison

This is happening far too frequently, hopefully it will shorten Grayling's career.

MarkSenior said:

Sleaford Westholme Linc Ind gain from Ind

Linc Ind 342 Con 119 Lab 38

Sleaford Quarrington Linc Ind gain from Con

Linc Ind 527 Con 477 Ind 178

Why is Quarrington a gain from Con? Harry had it as an Ind defence?

volcanopete said:

There has a bit of support in Ladbrokes banded L/D seats market for the 21-30 market to 100-30.For those playing this market it has to be in the total equation.They could easily end up with the higher end of this band,or even lower.I've already covered this and make it a 9-4 chance ,joint with 31-40 at 9-4 also so 10-3 on offer is still a bet IMHO.

I'm closing tonight with this observation.
The junior coaltion Labour party in Ireland has fallen to just 4%, proves that being a junior member in coalition is very unhealthy.
(Also Gerry Adams has his popularity up since his arrest)

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/red-c-poll-labour-at-a-dismal-4pc-30349314.html

Rother Collington Ind hold

Ind 570 Con 338 UKIP 311 Lab 102

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AveryLP said:

Comrade

Have you been dining in Warwickshire this evening?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OK, so entertaining match but marred by that dodgy penalty! Croat goalie was unlucky not to save it!

Comrade Chancellor. If you count Coventry as still being in Warks, then yes!

I have driven through Coventry.

Once.

I had no idea of where it was at the time.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AveryLP said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AveryLP said:

Comrade

Have you been dining in Warwickshire this evening?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OK, so entertaining match but marred by that dodgy penalty! Croat goalie was unlucky not to save it!

Comrade Chancellor. If you count Coventry as still being in Warks, then yes!

I have driven through Coventry.

Once.

I had no idea of where it was at the time.

May I ask why the enquiry into my dining habits, Comrade?

I thought you were meeting Messrs. Brooke and Observer for the evening.

There was a frantic hunt for your telephone number earlier in the day.

AveryLP said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AveryLP said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AveryLP said:

Comrade

Have you been dining in Warwickshire this evening?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OK, so entertaining match but marred by that dodgy penalty! Croat goalie was unlucky not to save it!

Comrade Chancellor. If you count Coventry as still being in Warks, then yes!

I have driven through Coventry.

Once.

I had no idea of where it was at the time.

May I ask why the enquiry into my dining habits, Comrade?

I thought you were meeting Messrs. Brooke and Observer for the evening.

There was a frantic hunt for your telephone number earlier in the day.

I can confirm I made contact with Mr Brooke this morning, although it was too late to fix any plans for tonight, but we hope to meet up sometime over the next two weeks.

ToryJim said:

AveryLP said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AveryLP said:

Comrade

Have you been dining in Warwickshire this evening?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OK, so entertaining match but marred by that dodgy penalty! Croat goalie was unlucky not to save it!

Comrade Chancellor. If you count Coventry as still being in Warks, then yes!

I have driven through Coventry.

Once.

I had no idea of where it was at the time.

I went to Coventry once. I got in trouble for suggesting that it's difficult to pin down the bigger crime the Nazis bombing the Cathedral or the way it was rebuilt.

I have always associated it with Benjamin Britten's War Requiem which was written for consecration of the rebuilt Cathedral in 1962. I have a video recording of the performance.

The two seem inseparately linked and completely complementary.

ToryJim said:

AveryLP said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AveryLP said:

Comrade

Have you been dining in Warwickshire this evening?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OK, so entertaining match but marred by that dodgy penalty! Croat goalie was unlucky not to save it!

Comrade Chancellor. If you count Coventry as still being in Warks, then yes!

I have driven through Coventry.

Once.

I had no idea of where it was at the time.

I went to Coventry once. I got in trouble for suggesting that it's difficult to pin down the bigger crime the Nazis bombing the Cathedral or the way it was rebuilt.

Strictly speaking it wasn't rebuilt per se, but a new structure built on a slightly different site.

Before getting excited about Iraq can peeps learn some history?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Isandlwana

The Kurds are forming the right-horn (stand-down Scots born "Yorkshire" lawyers); the Shias are retreating from an open plain - ok, desert - into more favourable ground. This is the enticing left-horn (no; not redrag compouter-vX)!

The West should deploy ELINT/SIGINT to capture the Muzzies electronic messages and Jordan - with their upgraded Chally-Is - should be able to snip the Islamists' tin-pot Toyotas at 5600yds. A few Reapers with - sadly rushed - dual-mode Brimstones will see ISIS looking for 72-virgins (albeit in Hellfire)....

Today's YG looks like an outlier on the high side for Labour, just as yesterday looked on the low side. Doubt if much will happen for a while, but the clock is ticking away without many of those elusive Tory leads.

RodCrosby said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

ToryJim said:

AveryLP said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AveryLP said:

Comrade

Have you been dining in Warwickshire this evening?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OK, so entertaining match but marred by that dodgy penalty! Croat goalie was unlucky not to save it!

Comrade Chancellor. If you count Coventry as still being in Warks, then yes!

I have driven through Coventry.

Once.

I had no idea of where it was at the time.

I went to Coventry once. I got in trouble for suggesting that it's difficult to pin down the bigger crime the Nazis bombing the Cathedral or the way it was rebuilt.

Strictly speaking it wasn't rebuilt per se, but a new structure built on a slightly different site.

Should have left it as it was, as we did with our "bombed-out church", right in the heart of Liverpool, untouched since it was destroyed on the night of 6 May 1941...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Luke's_Church,_Liverpool

The old Coventry Cathedral is largely untouched, only the spire and small parts of the walls still stand.

The electoral clock is also ticking away when it comes to showing any actual chance of the Labour party as the main Opposition now proving that it could become the voters actual choice when it comes to a Government in waiting at the next GE.

NickPalmer said:

Today's YG looks like an outlier on the high side for Labour, just as yesterday looked on the low side. Doubt if much will happen for a while, but the clock is ticking away without many of those elusive Tory leads.

It's glorious watching the Spurs tearing the Heat to pieces.

FPT

"3:1 was foxinsoxuk jr's prediction. I got 15/1 for that."

Quite brilliant Foxy - Shadsy should sign him up immediately!