politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : June 12th 2014

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  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2014
    You know what the irony is, the only aircraft carrier in the persian gulf at the moment is the George Bush, fancy being in Iraq awaiting for the planes from the Bush to start bombing.
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 16s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead increases to six points: CON 32%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%

    Hmm
    Passport fiasco ?
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Tykejohnno said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 16s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead increases to six points: CON 32%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%

    Hmm
    Passport fiasco ?
    Possible, lead always seems to be highest for lab on Thursday though
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 16s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead increases to six points: CON 32%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%

    That is what you usually saw last year.

  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Clegg must be relieved,6 to 8% ;-)
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    UKIP do appear to be on the slide in recent days with YouGov.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Tykejohnno said:

    Clegg must be relieved,6 to 8% ;-)

    33% increase in a day
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    unconfirmed twitter buzz: huge explosions rock Baghdad tonight and fighting reported in Tarimiya and Dora districts of the capital...
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UKIP do appear to be on the slide in recent days with YouGov.

    I was going to say that looks low for UKIP
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2014
    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UKIP do appear to be on the slide in recent days with YouGov.

    I was going to say that looks low for UKIP
    It could just be that, as you can't vote from prison, you can't participate in polls.

  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Yep. Sanity slowly returning.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UKIP do appear to be on the slide in recent days with YouGov.

  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    unconfirmed twitter buzz: huge explosions rock Baghdad tonight and fighting reported in Tarimiya and Dora districts of the capital...

    Last time I checked a few hours ago they where 15 miles away.
    We need a TV crew to broadcast the Battle of Bagdhad live, you know for the history books.

  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    On topic, I'm already satisfied with the local by-elections for meeting my exacting standards of being slightly ridiculous, on average, even if they do not hold a candle to the pleasantly absurd naming conventions down here in the SW.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Clegg must be relieved,6 to 8% ;-)

    33% increase in a day
    Keep that up and Danny Alexander's recent predictions were far too pessimistic, clearly.
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Clegg must be relieved,6 to 8% ;-)

    33% increase in a day
    Keep that up and Danny Alexander's recent predictions were far too pessimistic, clearly.
    Hmm
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Clegg must be relieved,6 to 8% ;-)

    33% increase in a day
    Keep that up and Danny Alexander's recent predictions were far too pessimistic, clearly.
    I was thinking earlier on today, remember those heady days after the first debates, when the Lib Dems were in first place and Nick Clegg was the greatest and most popular politician since Churchill
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    unconfirmed twitter buzz: huge explosions rock Baghdad tonight and fighting reported in Tarimiya and Dora districts of the capital...

    I think you are right, that means that Iraq is going to have an offer (Iranian probably) it can't refuse pretty soon.

  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    AveryLP said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    MikeK said:

    AveryLP said:

    Farage and UKIP face fines and Farage a possible prison sentence

    Daily Telegraph article on Electoral Commission investigation into allegations that UKIP failed to declare more than £200,000 of donations to the party and that allowances paid by the EP were misappropriated.

    A spokesman for the Electoral Commission said: “The donations in kind have been reported late. The party election finance team is now reviewing all of the information.

    “Once that process is complete we will decide whether any action needs to be taken.

    Full article: http://bit.ly/1nz7Uf9

    Kipper watchers should take careful note that Stuart Wheeler resigned as Treasurer of the Party with effect from July 1. Wheeler's three year stint as Treasurer did not co-incide with the period under investigation by the Electoral Commission and it is not known whether his resignation is connected to the allegations.

    See: http://bit.ly/1xPKfg1

    Farage doesn't face a jail sentence @AveryLP, so stop bigging it up. He may have to pay a fine and that depends how the law is interpreted.

    I see Avery also failed to mention this bit:

    "“Every year since 2001, Mr Farage has declared in his European Parliament Register of Interests the use of a rent-free office from J Longhurst Ltd. The premises has been used as his MEP office so the European Parliamentary register was the logical place for it to be declared."
    I did link to it though and was very self-disciplined in not linking to the more detailed allegations of how Farage and UKIP may have misspent EP allowance money which have been widely published on the internet.
    This from the man who proudly proclaimed he didn't care about facts, only politics.

    We all know how much credence would should put to your posts these days Avery.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Just backed this match to finish 3-2 to Brazil at 16/1
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Clegg must be relieved,6 to 8% ;-)

    33% increase in a day
    Keep that up and Danny Alexander's recent predictions were far too pessimistic, clearly.
    I was thinking earlier on today, remember those heady days after the first debates, when the Lib Dems were in first place and Nick Clegg was the greatest and most popular politician since Churchill
    Bubbles always burst, not always this calamitously though
  • Life_ina_market_town
    Life_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    AveryLP said:

    It could just be that, as you can't vote from prison, you can't participate in polls.

    That is not strictly true. A prisoner on remand, or under sentence for default or contempt has the same political rights as the ordinary citizen. A person convicted of an offence, and detained in prison, has no right to vote in elections. However, a person convicted of an offence, and sentenced to a term of imprisonment of less than one year, may stand for, and be returned at a parliamentary election (see sections 1 & 2 of the Representation of the People Act 1981, and section 3 of the Representation of the People Act 1983).
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    3:1 was foxinsoxuk jr's prediction. I got 15/1 for that.

    Both teams far better than England.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Just backed this match to finish 3-2 to Brazil at 16/1

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    The Mail have it in for Dave and Hague

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 47s

    Friday's Daily Mail front page - "Starstruck" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers

    pic.twitter.com/wArNsOq9sE
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iankatz1000: What's that you say? Hillary Clinton to come out in favour of Scotland staying in the union on #newsnight in 20 mins? Are you sure?
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    My guess this match is going to finish 1-1 as both teams get more nervous about losing the first match.
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited June 2014
    Not a good front page on the mail for Cameron and hague.

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick · 1 min
    Friday's Daily Mail front page - "Starstruck" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/wArNsOq9sE

    Lately the mail seems to see the tories as target number one.
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Mail have it in for Dave and Hague

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 47s

    Friday's Daily Mail front page - "Starstruck" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers

    pic.twitter.com/wArNsOq9sE

    It's a scummy rag at the best of times
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Scott_P said:

    @iankatz1000: What's that you say? Hillary Clinton to come out in favour of Scotland staying in the union on #newsnight in 20 mins? Are you sure?

    Risky move after Obama backfired.

  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited June 2014
    You Gov is getting to be a bit ridiculous with these sudden moves. they should poll at max twice a week like Populus.
    People don't change their mind in a trice like that, if anything the excellent unemployment figs should be a fillip for the Govt. They used to be, but what used to happen doesn't necessarily happen these days.

    Most of the Tories are watching the Cricket, that's my theory anyway... getting 50p for filling in a online poll hardly seems worth the effort.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I was thinking earlier on today, remember those heady days after the first debates, when the Lib Dems were in first place and Nick Clegg was the greatest and most popular politician since Churchill

    Indeed, see future footnotes on Farage, Nigel

    At least Nick Clegg will get half a paragraph in the main text.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Mail have it in for Dave and Hague

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 47s

    Friday's Daily Mail front page - "Starstruck" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers

    pic.twitter.com/wArNsOq9sE

    I didn't know that ISIS had pushed so deep into kurdish territory.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2655977/ISIS-militants-march-Baghdad-trademark-bullet-head-gets-way-control-north.html
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Tim Montgomerie ✔ @TimMontgomerie

    Wow. Mail front page tmrw hammers Hague and Cameron #FiddlingWhileIraqAndUkraineAndSyriaBurn pic.twitter.com/cOpvCZr18c


  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    The former iraqi PM has said on CNN that the outskirts of Baghdad have aleadry fallen.

    http://amanpour.blogs.cnn.com/2014/06/12/former-iraqi-prime-minister-ayad-allawi-the-belt-of-baghdad-has-fallen/?sr=sharebar_twitter
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Clegg must be relieved,6 to 8% ;-)

    33% increase in a day
    Keep that up and Danny Alexander's recent predictions were far too pessimistic, clearly.
    I was thinking earlier on today, remember those heady days after the first debates, when the Lib Dems were in first place and Nick Clegg was the greatest and most popular politician since Churchill
    I suspect if you asked people if they contributed to that perception, you would conclude from the answers that it could not possibly have happened, like historical revisionism taken too far.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    The former iraqi PM has said on CNN that the outskirts of Baghdad have aleadry fallen.

    http://amanpour.blogs.cnn.com/2014/06/12/former-iraqi-prime-minister-ayad-allawi-the-belt-of-baghdad-has-fallen/?sr=sharebar_twitter

    Jesus Christ.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Tykejohnno said:


    Tim Montgomerie ✔ @TimMontgomerie

    Wow. Mail front page tmrw hammers Hague and Cameron #FiddlingWhileIraqAndUkraineAndSyriaBurn pic.twitter.com/cOpvCZr18c


    Seems pretty harsh - what do they expect either of them to do, especially when a large section of the public would not countenance any action under any circumstances (even diplomatic action from the most extreme), another large section thinks we cannot do anything (again, diplomatic or otherwise), and other large sections might want to be in a position to do something but would not be willing to pay for it, economically or diplomatically.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 2m

    Friday's Times front page - "Farage faces jail threat over £200,000 donations" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers

    pic.twitter.com/aKleEPcqHc
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    It reaĺly is sounding like the fall of Saigon.

    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    The former iraqi PM has said on CNN that the outskirts of Baghdad have aleadry fallen.

    http://amanpour.blogs.cnn.com/2014/06/12/former-iraqi-prime-minister-ayad-allawi-the-belt-of-baghdad-has-fallen/?sr=sharebar_twitter

    Jesus Christ.
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Penalty
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2014
    Odd, according to the Beeb website tonight the number 1 world story tonight is a not unattractive lady with an unconventional décolleté opening some football tournament.

    ... and according to the Times, the number 1 world story is that Nigel Farage might have misfiled some office expenses.

    It really is a funny old world, isn't it?
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Penalty!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    That penalty was as soft as an impotent guy's todger.
  • MrJones
    MrJones Posts: 3,523
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZQiQE9yh1Vw/S7nSEWOYBiI/AAAAAAAAARk/qYtH3xUKJdM/s1600/Baghdad_Ethnic_Mid_2008_sm.jpg

    green is shia bits, red is sunni bits

    hard to see the shia bits letting them through without a fight (assuming the locals are all still armed to the teeth?)

    so that looks like coming from the west or not at all?

  • Me_
    Me_ Posts: 66
    Fred, best diver ever.
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Brazil 2
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Price of referees just risen?
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    M'Lud

    You should take instructions from College and his party.

    They are going to need your help and there are plenty of EP allowances to pay your fees.
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    AveryLP said:

    It could just be that, as you can't vote from prison, you can't participate in polls.

    That is not strictly true. A prisoner on remand, or under sentence for default or contempt has the same political rights as the ordinary citizen. A person convicted of an offence, and detained in prison, has no right to vote in elections. However, a person convicted of an offence, and sentenced to a term of imprisonment of less than one year, may stand for, and be returned at a parliamentary election (see sections 1 & 2 of the Representation of the People Act 1981, and section 3 of the Representation of the People Act 1983).
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Odd, according to the Beeb website tonight the number 1 world story tonight is a not unattractive lady with an unconventional décolleté opening some football tournament.

    That's J-Lo, I don't think I've done a J-Lo themed nighthawks yet.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Referee hasn't impressed tonight.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    edited June 2014
    kle4 said:

    Tykejohnno said:


    Tim Montgomerie ✔ @TimMontgomerie

    Wow. Mail front page tmrw hammers Hague and Cameron #FiddlingWhileIraqAndUkraineAndSyriaBurn pic.twitter.com/cOpvCZr18c


    Seems pretty harsh - what do they expect either of them to do, especially when a large section of the public would not countenance any action under any circumstances (even diplomatic action from the most extreme), another large section thinks we cannot do anything (again, diplomatic or otherwise), and other large sections might want to be in a position to do something but would not be willing to pay for it, economically or diplomatically.
    But obviously Hague should have cancelled the international conference on rape as a weapon of war to wring his hands a bit in public.

    (FAOD, this is an ironic comment about the Mail's priorities)
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Keep it for another 20 minutes and I win my bet on the modest odds of 9/4.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Odd, according to the Beeb website tonight the number 1 world story tonight is a not unattractive lady with an unconventional décolleté opening some football tournament.

    That's J-Lo, I don't think I've done a J-Lo themed nighthawks yet.
    Does she have any other talents, beyond the décolleté?
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    kle4 said:

    Tykejohnno said:


    Tim Montgomerie ✔ @TimMontgomerie

    Wow. Mail front page tmrw hammers Hague and Cameron #FiddlingWhileIraqAndUkraineAndSyriaBurn pic.twitter.com/cOpvCZr18c


    Seems pretty harsh - what do they expect either of them to do, especially when a large section of the public would not countenance any action under any circumstances (even diplomatic action from the most extreme), another large section thinks we cannot do anything (again, diplomatic or otherwise), and other large sections might want to be in a position to do something but would not be willing to pay for it, economically or diplomatically.
    I think it's a pathetic front page,what hague as done for action on sexual violence in war zones,the man should be congratulated.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited June 2014
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Odd, according to the Beeb website tonight the number 1 world story tonight is a not unattractive lady with an unconventional décolleté opening some football tournament.

    That's J-Lo, I don't think I've done a J-Lo themed nighthawks yet.
    Does she have any other talents, beyond the décolleté?
    She's a decent actress as well.
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Tykejohnno said:


    Tim Montgomerie ✔ @TimMontgomerie

    Wow. Mail front page tmrw hammers Hague and Cameron #FiddlingWhileIraqAndUkraineAndSyriaBurn pic.twitter.com/cOpvCZr18c


    Both obeying Reagan's admirable dictum "Don't do something, just stand there" then. And moronic hashtag - Nero was both in, and in charge of, Rome while it burned.

  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Former Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi: 'The belt of Baghdad has fallen'
    http://amanpour.blogs.cnn.com/2014/06/12/former-iraqi-prime-minister-ayad-allawi-the-belt-of-baghdad-has-fallen/
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2014
    foxinsoxuk said:

    It reaĺly is sounding like the fall of Saigon.



    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    The former iraqi PM has said on CNN that the outskirts of Baghdad have aleadry fallen.

    http://amanpour.blogs.cnn.com/2014/06/12/former-iraqi-prime-minister-ayad-allawi-the-belt-of-baghdad-has-fallen/?sr=sharebar_twitter

    Jesus Christ.
    Yeap, but Iran can stop it, ironically again Iran is the only one that can prevent a historical american humiliation.

    http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/06/12/as-jihadists-take-aim-at-baghdad-iran-steps-in-to-help-historical-foe/

    "After U.S.-trained security forces dropped their weapons and fled their posts in Mosul, the regime in Baghdad has reason to fear for its survival, an intelligence official said.
    “Baghdad is going to be overrun," he said. "The Green Zone is going down.”
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 2m

    Friday's Times front page - "Farage faces jail threat over £200,000 donations" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers

    pic.twitter.com/aKleEPcqHc

    For the first time in 100 years a non-establishment party wins a national election, and then a few weeks later the leader of that party faces a jail threat. A lot of people will be nodding slowly when they think about that sequence of events.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    She is very erudite on the conduct of the second punic war, I am led to believe.
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Odd, according to the Beeb website tonight the number 1 world story tonight is a not unattractive lady with an unconventional décolleté opening some football tournament.

    That's J-Lo, I don't think I've done a J-Lo themed nighthawks yet.
    Does she have any other talents, beyond the décolleté?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    Former Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi: 'The belt of Baghdad has fallen'
    http://amanpour.blogs.cnn.com/2014/06/12/former-iraqi-prime-minister-ayad-allawi-the-belt-of-baghdad-has-fallen/

    Does he have an interest in exaggerating things?
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    This is the Daily Mail Deputy Editor,makes you wonder how much he dislikes the tories ;-)


    Tony Gallagher @gallaghereditor · 5h

    Am enjoying passport twists & turns of Theresa May immensely. The story will linger in the memory far longer than May v Gove spat

  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Speedy said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    It reaĺly is sounding like the fall of Saigon.



    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    The former iraqi PM has said on CNN that the outskirts of Baghdad have aleadry fallen.

    http://amanpour.blogs.cnn.com/2014/06/12/former-iraqi-prime-minister-ayad-allawi-the-belt-of-baghdad-has-fallen/?sr=sharebar_twitter

    Jesus Christ.
    Yeap, but Iran can stop it, ironically again Iran is the only one that can prevent a historical american humiliation.

    http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/06/12/as-jihadists-take-aim-at-baghdad-iran-steps-in-to-help-historical-foe/

    "After U.S.-trained security forces dropped their weapons and fled their posts in Mosul, the regime in Baghdad has reason to fear for its survival, an intelligence official said.
    “Baghdad is going to be overrun," he said. "The Green Zone is going down.”
    Goodness knows what all those troops would be like without all that training. No substitute for raw, fanatical devotion I guess, at least when it comes to swift and decisive action at any rate, even if it doesn't work in the long run without someone with a head for strategy and tactics.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 2m

    Friday's Times front page - "Farage faces jail threat over £200,000 donations" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers

    pic.twitter.com/aKleEPcqHc

    For the first time in 100 years a non-establishment party wins a national election, and then a few weeks later the leader of that party faces a jail threat. A lot of people will be nodding slowly when they think about that sequence of events.
    Gerry Adams got a poll boost when he was arrested for a few days before the euros.
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited June 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Odd, according to the Beeb website tonight the number 1 world story tonight is a not unattractive lady with an unconventional décolleté opening some football tournament.

    That's J-Lo, I don't think I've done a J-Lo themed nighthawks yet.
    When you do one do it well, and give it all you have, so that we feel that we have been waiting for tonight.

  • MrJones
    MrJones Posts: 3,523
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    The former iraqi PM has said on CNN that the outskirts of Baghdad have aleadry fallen.

    http://amanpour.blogs.cnn.com/2014/06/12/former-iraqi-prime-minister-ayad-allawi-the-belt-of-baghdad-has-fallen/?sr=sharebar_twitter

    Jesus Christ.
    I'd take a lot of this with a pinch of salt if i was you.

    Baghdad is full of millions of people with AK47s who are fanatically hostile to the AQ type bods like Saigon wasn't.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 2m

    Friday's Times front page - "Farage faces jail threat over £200,000 donations" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers

    pic.twitter.com/aKleEPcqHc

    For the first time in 100 years a non-establishment party wins a national election, and then a few weeks later the leader of that party faces a jail threat. A lot of people will be nodding slowly when they think about that sequence of events.
    Gerry Adams got a poll boost when he was arrested for a few days before the euros.
    Didn't Rob Ford get a poll boost when he admitted to smoking Crack as well (the first time that is)?

    I hope we get a thread on his chances at some point, if he still hasn't dropped out of the race for Toronto Mayor yet.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    NOOOOOO

    Oh wait.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    Echoes of 2002.

    Brasil go one down to unfancied European team.

    In return they get a twelth man.

    Is there a market on the number of penalties in the WC ?

    Because if that's going to be the standard we should see at least one a game.


  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Bah this refereeing is ridiculous.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    kle4 said:

    Tykejohnno said:


    Tim Montgomerie ✔ @TimMontgomerie

    Wow. Mail front page tmrw hammers Hague and Cameron #FiddlingWhileIraqAndUkraineAndSyriaBurn pic.twitter.com/cOpvCZr18c


    Seems pretty harsh - what do they expect either of them to do, especially when a large section of the public would not countenance any action under any circumstances (even diplomatic action from the most extreme), another large section thinks we cannot do anything (again, diplomatic or otherwise), and other large sections might want to be in a position to do something but would not be willing to pay for it, economically or diplomatically.
    Presumably they want David Davis as PM - so they take an action which they think will help lead to that - and instead of course they will get Ed Miliband. Who will then do the precise opposite of everything the Daily Mail supposedly wants.

    It's a bit like people wanting an EU referendum voting UKIP.

    In fact it's not a bit like it - it's exactly like it - people winding themselves up into a frenzy and lashing out wildly in all directions - resulting in a worse result than if they did nothing.

    But I guess it's human nature - because it makes people feel better if they lash out - because they think they're doing something.
  • MrJones
    MrJones Posts: 3,523
    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    It reaĺly is sounding like the fall of Saigon.



    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    The former iraqi PM has said on CNN that the outskirts of Baghdad have aleadry fallen.

    http://amanpour.blogs.cnn.com/2014/06/12/former-iraqi-prime-minister-ayad-allawi-the-belt-of-baghdad-has-fallen/?sr=sharebar_twitter

    Jesus Christ.
    Yeap, but Iran can stop it, ironically again Iran is the only one that can prevent a historical american humiliation.

    http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/06/12/as-jihadists-take-aim-at-baghdad-iran-steps-in-to-help-historical-foe/

    "After U.S.-trained security forces dropped their weapons and fled their posts in Mosul, the regime in Baghdad has reason to fear for its survival, an intelligence official said.
    “Baghdad is going to be overrun," he said. "The Green Zone is going down.”
    Goodness knows what all those troops would be like without all that training. No substitute for raw, fanatical devotion I guess, at least when it comes to swift and decisive action at any rate, even if it doesn't work in the long run without someone with a head for strategy and tactics.
    My guess is the ones from the north don't want to live under a shia government anyway so aren't going to die for it whereas the ones from the south will fight to defend the south but not the north so they'll regroup when they're on home turf.

    de facto partition developing.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    Re Iraq.

    If we do get a new regime there could they ask for Blair's extradition as a war criminal ?

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Pulpstar said:

    Bah this refereeing is ridiculous.

    Christ, this Japanese ref makes Nigel Owen's performance in the rugby last Saturday look brilliant.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 1m

    Referee 2 Croatia 1 #worldcup
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 2m

    Friday's Times front page - "Farage faces jail threat over £200,000 donations" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers

    pic.twitter.com/aKleEPcqHc

    For the first time in 100 years a non-establishment party wins a national election, and then a few weeks later the leader of that party faces a jail threat. A lot of people will be nodding slowly when they think about that sequence of events.
    Gerry Adams got a poll boost when he was arrested for a few days before the euros.
    Didn't Rob Ford get a poll boost when he admitted to smoking Crack as well (the first time that is)?

    I hope we get a thread on his chances at some point, if he still hasn't dropped out of the race for Toronto Mayor yet.
    Yeah Rob Ford got a boost because he did a good job dealing with Toronto's problems despite his personal problems, however since his behaviour is still going down hill he has become the most serious problem for Toronto.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    At least this ref is going to cost Hills a million quid.

    Small mercies.
  • welshowl
    welshowl Posts: 4,464
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 1m

    Referee 2 Croatia 1 #worldcup

    He's not wrong
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    another_richard said:

    Re Iraq.

    If we do get a new regime there could they ask for Blair's extradition as a war criminal ?

    It's not really their style, is it? Anyway, why would they want to punish a chap who did so much for their cause?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Not surprised the Croatia equilizer disallowed, in international matches they give fouls if someone so much as sneezes next to a goalkeeper, but in conjunction with the penalty nonsense, a very poor game indeed.
    MikeL said:

    kle4 said:

    Tykejohnno said:


    Tim Montgomerie ✔ @TimMontgomerie

    Wow. Mail front page tmrw hammers Hague and Cameron #FiddlingWhileIraqAndUkraineAndSyriaBurn pic.twitter.com/cOpvCZr18c


    Seems pretty harsh - what do they expect either of them to do, especially when a large section of the public would not countenance any action under any circumstances (even diplomatic action from the most extreme), another large section thinks we cannot do anything (again, diplomatic or otherwise), and other large sections might want to be in a position to do something but would not be willing to pay for it, economically or diplomatically.
    Presumably they want David Davis as PM - so they take an action which they think will help lead to that - and instead of course they will get Ed Miliband. Who will then do the precise opposite of everything the Daily Mail supposedly wants.

    It's a bit like people wanting an EU referendum voting UKIP.

    In fact it's not a bit like it - it's exactly like it - people winding themselves up into a frenzy and lashing out wildly in all directions - resulting in a worse result than if they did nothing.
    The Tories have certainly excelled in making sure they never have too many positive moments in a row this parliament, there is so much division in the party its press or its members lash out sooner or later.
  • MrJones
    MrJones Posts: 3,523
    bit unlucky to be drawn against the home team early on
  • Carola
    Carola Posts: 1,805
    edited June 2014
    Hillary would hate us to lose Scotland.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    YES YES YES.
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Wow Oscar!!
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SusanCalman: Pickle demonstrates how easily the Brazilian player went down for the penalty. She got Croatia in the flat sweepstake http://t.co/KroMlbPKGj
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Foxinsox jr's predictions for tommorow will be posted shortly!
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Iran has already got troops in Iraq

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10896670/Obama-ponders-as-Iran-sends-troops-to-Iraq.html
  • steve_garner
    steve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Croatia backers should be livid tonight. They've been cheated, simple as. The Oscar goal just rubs their noses in it.
  • antifrank1
    antifrank1 Posts: 81
    Jennifer Lopez is multi-talented (ie she's no good at lots of different things).
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    World Cup reduced to nonsense by referee. Croatia a joy to watch.
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    @mrdavidwhitley: The referee's full name, of course, is Referinho.
  • Me_
    Me_ Posts: 66
    Well, well, well. People were simply screaming some bad things at Fifa and Dilma... No need to remember we have elections this year.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Ishmael_X said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Odd, according to the Beeb website tonight the number 1 world story tonight is a not unattractive lady with an unconventional décolleté opening some football tournament.

    That's J-Lo, I don't think I've done a J-Lo themed nighthawks yet.
    When you do one do it well, and give it all you have, so that we feel that we have been waiting for tonight.

    Like!
  • MrJones
    MrJones Posts: 3,523
    ToryJim said:

    Iran has already got troops in Iraq

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10896670/Obama-ponders-as-Iran-sends-troops-to-Iraq.html

    yeah the question is whether it's a company of hard lads or actual brigades on the move

    if Maliki throws in with Iran to avoid getting Gadaffied with a bayonet then it'll be brigades and the US state department will have blood flowing out the doors

    shouldn't laugh really as it's serious but in terms of unintended consequences this has the possibility of taking the world record

    then again maybe he'll just panic and run and the Isis people take over in the chaos
  • BobaFett
    BobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Croatia absolutely robbed of the draw there. Should still qualify. Brazil look very beatable
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    The ref's first name was going to be Useless but his parents decided on Bent.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2014
    Rumours now Baghdad International Airport is now closed after some iraqi lawmakers took flights to Jordan.
    And yes there seems to be fighting on the south side of Baghdad.

    ConflictReporter @MiddleEast_BRK · 38m
    #BreakingNews Limited clashes between Sunni rebels and Iraqi security forces broke out in the southern #Baghdad district of #Doura. #Iraq
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    BobaFett said:

    Croatia absolutely robbed of the draw there. Should still qualify. Brazil look very beatable

    Not if brazil keep getting them sort of ref's ;-)

  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Rumours of fighting near Abu Ghraib and Baghdad Airport. ISIS appear to be approaching from the west, rather than the north.
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    MrJones said:

    ToryJim said:

    Iran has already got troops in Iraq

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10896670/Obama-ponders-as-Iran-sends-troops-to-Iraq.html

    yeah the question is whether it's a company of hard lads or actual brigades on the move

    if Maliki throws in with Iran to avoid getting Gadaffied with a bayonet then it'll be brigades and the US state department will have blood flowing out the doors

    shouldn't laugh really as it's serious but in terms of unintended consequences this has the possibility of taking the world record

    then again maybe he'll just panic and run and the Isis people take over in the chaos
    Hmm I think this is going to get very very messy
  • BobaFett
    BobaFett Posts: 2,789
    ToryJim said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 16s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead increases to six points: CON 32%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%

    Hmm
    Passport fiasco ?
    Possible, lead always seems to be highest for lab on Thursday though
    Good news.

    The election is on a Thursday :)
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