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On the Smarkets exchange it’s a 14% chance that Trump will still be in the White House after January

SystemSystem Posts: 12,638
edited December 2020 in General
imageOn the Smarkets exchange it’s a 14% chance that Trump will still be in the White House after January 20th – politicalbetting.com

The political story that most dominates my thinking at the moment is what is going on in the US and whether Trump will actually leave the White House quietly as the US constitution requires at noon Washington time on January 20th.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    1st
  • adamandcatadamandcat Posts: 76
    Qtwtain
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    gealbhan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    The UK is paying $37 per dose of the Moderna vaccine. The EU is paying $18 per dose. Both buyers ordered 40m doses. The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.

    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    But it’s not the end picture though? If the others vaccinate quicker, even though giving us head start go passed us. they will have vaccinated faster at half the price in the end picture? Plus learnt from our pilot scheme giving it to people with allergies for example? 😕
    But that's not the case. The EU is not going to be vaccinating quicker than us.

    We will get through our priority list before the EU does the same. Quibbling over pennies per dose but getting your doses months later is a very false economy when you look at the cost of Covid in both lives and damage to the economy.

    Plus malcolm's numbers didn't come with a source and don't match what anyone else is saying. Everyone else is reporting we're paying a bit more but getting the vaccines month's sooner - paying a bit more but getting it sooner is fantastic value for money in the grand scheme of things.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    Is this the queue for the ferry?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,673
    I was talking this morning to a chum whose son is high up in public health and sits in the Covid COBRA meetings.

    Word from him was that this new mutation is bastard contagious....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,658
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1341315695578148865
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,658
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1341324615377969154
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,951
    One reason Georgia flipped is because the military hate his guts. He called their dead comrades ‘losers.’

    If he tried martial law I’m pretty sure the first and only thing that would happen is his own security detail would shoot him.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,951
    edited December 2020
    MarqueeMark said:

    I was talking this morning to a chum whose son is high up in public health and sits in the Covid COBRA meetings.

    Word from him was that this new mutation is bastard contagious....

    So those @justin124 approves of will be fine?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Good morning my dear friends.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    MarqueeMark said:

    I was talking this morning to a chum whose son is high up in public health and sits in the Covid COBRA meetings.

    Word from him was that this new mutation is bastard contagious....

    Are you sure, I read on twitter from this blue checkmark that works at the FT that it is all a cunning ploy by Boris to hide Brexit issues....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Philip_Thompson said:
    » show previous quotes
    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    How many doses have we got ahead of EU?


    Why couldnt we have done both?

    They have ordered 200m doses BTW so bound to be cheaper

    https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-reach-agreement-supply-eu-200-million
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,343
    MarqueeMark said:

    I was talking this morning to a chum whose son is high up in public health and sits in the Covid COBRA meetings.

    Word from him was that this new mutation is bastard contagious....

    That’s why the Times quote about Supercovid’s extra infectiousness leapt out at me. They didn’t cite the 0.4 lower range of R, but the higher one. 0.93. The article (and a similar one on Sky News) was clearly implying that scientists, even at this early stage, are tending to pessimism.

    Brrrrr
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,951
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Good morning my dear friends.

    What about friends who are cheap, like me? :smile:
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    MarqueeMark said:

    I was talking this morning to a chum whose son is high up in public health and sits in the Covid COBRA meetings.

    Word from him was that this new mutation is bastard contagious....

    I'm hoping what I heard yesterday is bullshit.

    If it was true we might be in for a huge world of hurt.

    By "we" I mean all nations as no way this can be contained to one country
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    edited December 2020
    Leon said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I was talking this morning to a chum whose son is high up in public health and sits in the Covid COBRA meetings.

    Word from him was that this new mutation is bastard contagious....

    That’s why the Times quote about Supercovid’s extra infectiousness leapt out at me. They didn’t cite the 0.4 lower range of R, but the higher one. 0.93. The article (and a similar one on Sky News) was clearly implying that scientists, even at this early stage, are tending to pessimism.

    Brrrrr
    It is clearly extremely serious. Look at the worldwide reaction, it is just the French or Brexit or whatever. Literally half the world shut it borders to the UK within 24hrs, which hasn't been seen on this scale during this whole crisis.

    Up to this point, many countries have taken an approach of risk balancing i.e. they still allow travel from the UK, some with isolation or testing, to try and balance against the loss to commerce. Not with this announcement, it is literally door closed.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,758
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1341315695578148865

    So I know the lorry parks and so forth aren't all finished but as a Remainer I'm prepared to admit when the facts don't pan out the way I expected. Without Brexit the UK wouldn't be remotely as well prepared for being cut off from the world on account of being a plague-ridden hell-hole.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,673
    ydoethur said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I was talking this morning to a chum whose son is high up in public health and sits in the Covid COBRA meetings.

    Word from him was that this new mutation is bastard contagious....

    So those @justin124 approves of will be fine?
    He he 😉
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Floater said:

    1st

    To get the world beating Bastard Zombie strain
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    bigjohnowls said:

    Philip_Thompson said:
    » show previous quotes
    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    How many doses have we got ahead of EU?


    Why couldnt we have done both?

    They have ordered 200m doses BTW so bound to be cheaper

    https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-reach-agreement-supply-eu-200-million

    We couldn't have done both because we would be back of the queue. The price isn't relevant, what is relevant is getting it first.

    They're cheaper because they're further down the queue than we are. They're not getting a bigger discount because of 200m doses, they're getting a bigger discount because they're not first. If you pay to be first in the queue then you pay a premium for that - a premium that in the grand scheme of things is fantastic value for money.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    ydoethur said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Good morning my dear friends.

    What about friends who are cheap, like me? :smile:
    A special good morning to you :)
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Good morning my dear friends.

    How is your relative?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,658
    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1341327699772657666
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,418
    MarqueeMark said:

    I was talking this morning to a chum whose son is high up in public health and sits in the Covid COBRA meetings.

    Word from him was that this new mutation is bastard contagious....

    Is that the scientific consensus ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,418
    https://twitter.com/imperialcollege/status/1341319768083734528
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited December 2020
    Floater said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Good morning my dear friends.

    How is your relative?
    They've had a COVID test and are waiting on the results, seem okay this morning just bored from having to self-isolate.

    Thanks for your concern.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    bigjohnowls said:

    Floater said:

    1st

    To get the world beating Bastard Zombie strain
    British exceptionalism :wink:
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 834
    Philip_Thompson said:

    gealbhan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    The UK is paying $37 per dose of the Moderna vaccine. The EU is paying $18 per dose. Both buyers ordered 40m doses. The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.

    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    But it’s not the end picture though? If the others vaccinate quicker, even though giving us head start go passed us. they will have vaccinated faster at half the price in the end picture? Plus learnt from our pilot scheme giving it to people with allergies for example? 😕
    But that's not the case. The EU is not going to be vaccinating quicker than us.

    We will get through our priority list before the EU does the same. Quibbling over pennies per dose but getting your doses months later is a very false economy when you look at the cost of Covid in both lives and damage to the economy.

    Plus malcolm's numbers didn't come with a source and don't match what anyone else is saying. Everyone else is reporting we're paying a bit more but getting the vaccines month's sooner - paying a bit more but getting it sooner is fantastic value for money in the grand scheme of things.
    What's more, the Spiegel article strongly suggested that it was French protectionism of Sanofi that led to smaller later EU orders.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1341328539421970436

    When will Dan just accept the Government is shit and full of pathological liars?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1341327699772657666

    Son works seasonally at a supermarket

    He said people in store at 3am but never really rammed - no shortages.

    He did note though couples were going round with a full trolley EACH.

    Thats one way to empty shelves.....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,658
    https://twitter.com/kate_day/status/1341328296731095042
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Gaussian said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    gealbhan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    The UK is paying $37 per dose of the Moderna vaccine. The EU is paying $18 per dose. Both buyers ordered 40m doses. The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.

    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    But it’s not the end picture though? If the others vaccinate quicker, even though giving us head start go passed us. they will have vaccinated faster at half the price in the end picture? Plus learnt from our pilot scheme giving it to people with allergies for example? 😕
    But that's not the case. The EU is not going to be vaccinating quicker than us.

    We will get through our priority list before the EU does the same. Quibbling over pennies per dose but getting your doses months later is a very false economy when you look at the cost of Covid in both lives and damage to the economy.

    Plus malcolm's numbers didn't come with a source and don't match what anyone else is saying. Everyone else is reporting we're paying a bit more but getting the vaccines month's sooner - paying a bit more but getting it sooner is fantastic value for money in the grand scheme of things.
    What's more, the Spiegel article strongly suggested that it was French protectionism of Sanofi that led to smaller later EU orders.
    Indeed.

    Of all the things that anyone can claim is a negative consequence of Brexit - the UK turning down the EU's vaccine procurement scheme is self-evidently not a good one. I don't know what malcolmg was thinking in writing that. One too many turnips for breakfast this morning.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,636
    Leon said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I was talking this morning to a chum whose son is high up in public health and sits in the Covid COBRA meetings.

    Word from him was that this new mutation is bastard contagious....

    That’s why the Times quote about Supercovid’s extra infectiousness leapt out at me. They didn’t cite the 0.4 lower range of R, but the higher one. 0.93. The article (and a similar one on Sky News) was clearly implying that scientists, even at this early stage, are tending to pessimism.

    Brrrrr
    Discussion here yesterday suggested it may just hang around in the body for longer, which wouldn't be so bad. But other sources (for example the good Dr John Campbell's video on it - his videoblogs are excellent, if you havent caught them) suggest it has other advantages including being better able to fight off the immune system's defences, which isn't so good.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,550
    bigjohnowls said:

    Philip_Thompson said:
    » show previous quotes
    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    How many doses have we got ahead of EU?


    Why couldnt we have done both?

    They have ordered 200m doses BTW so bound to be cheaper

    https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-reach-agreement-supply-eu-200-million

    We have an order for 40m due for delivery by March. Who the hell cares if we're paying a couple of extra dollars per dose?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Bloomberg - EU rejected UK's fishing compromise.

    Hi ho, hi ho, its off to WTO we go . . .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    Shielding back in operation...

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1341322592855023619?s=20
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Philip_Thompson said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Philip_Thompson said:
    » show previous quotes
    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    How many doses have we got ahead of EU?


    Why couldnt we have done both?

    They have ordered 200m doses BTW so bound to be cheaper

    https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-reach-agreement-supply-eu-200-million

    We couldn't have done both because we would be back of the queue. The price isn't relevant, what is relevant is getting it first.

    They're cheaper because they're further down the queue than we are. They're not getting a bigger discount because of 200m doses, they're getting a bigger discount because they're not first. If you pay to be first in the queue then you pay a premium for that - a premium that in the grand scheme of things is fantastic value for money.
    Rubbish

    Ours are more expensive because we dont have the economies of scale of ordering 200m I thought you understood Capitalism

    They are due to get more doses than us by 31/12/20 according to press yesterday

    How many doses have the "first in the queue" had so far?


    How come others who werent first in the queue already have more doses than us? ie USA

    You do realise this is a taster of things to come under BREXIT surely we have sacrificed buying power for sovereignty. Which I am fine with and voted for but you seem unable to accept.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,673
    Leon said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I was talking this morning to a chum whose son is high up in public health and sits in the Covid COBRA meetings.

    Word from him was that this new mutation is bastard contagious....

    That’s why the Times quote about Supercovid’s extra infectiousness leapt out at me. They didn’t cite the 0.4 lower range of R, but the higher one. 0.93. The article (and a similar one on Sky News) was clearly implying that scientists, even at this early stage, are tending to pessimism.

    Brrrrr
    On the plus side, it will have ripped through the country in January and those few left standing can get on with their lives from February.

    The country's vital services are going to be run by doctors, nurses and sundry vaxxed nonagenarians....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Politically give the most fervent anti-lockdown Tory MPs are also the most fervent Brexiteers I wonder how the Tory backbenchers would react to a combined 30th December recall of Parliament to vote that we leave WTO and locked down until end of February while the vaccine is rolled out.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1341328412695257088
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    I see we are back to unsubstantiated hysteria on here.

    I've been taking a break from PB for this reason – I see I was right to do so.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,262
    MarqueeMark said:

    I was talking this morning to a chum whose son is high up in public health and sits in the Covid COBRA meetings.

    Word from him was that this new mutation is bastard contagious....

    Is 'bastard contagious' worse than 'bouncy'?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Anyone celebrating No Deal and the damage it would cause is a cock quite frankly.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,343
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I was talking this morning to a chum whose son is high up in public health and sits in the Covid COBRA meetings.

    Word from him was that this new mutation is bastard contagious....

    That’s why the Times quote about Supercovid’s extra infectiousness leapt out at me. They didn’t cite the 0.4 lower range of R, but the higher one. 0.93. The article (and a similar one on Sky News) was clearly implying that scientists, even at this early stage, are tending to pessimism.

    Brrrrr
    Discussion here yesterday suggested it may just hang around in the body for longer, which wouldn't be so bad. But other sources (for example the good Dr John Campbell's video on it - his videoblogs are excellent, if you havent caught them) suggest it has other advantages including being better able to fight off the immune system's defences, which isn't so good.
    Another suggestion in The Times is that Supercovid may still respond to vaccines, but be more resistant. In other words Pfizer’s 95% may go down to 60% or whatever.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2020
    bigjohnowls said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Philip_Thompson said:
    » show previous quotes
    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    How many doses have we got ahead of EU?


    Why couldnt we have done both?

    They have ordered 200m doses BTW so bound to be cheaper

    https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-reach-agreement-supply-eu-200-million

    We couldn't have done both because we would be back of the queue. The price isn't relevant, what is relevant is getting it first.

    They're cheaper because they're further down the queue than we are. They're not getting a bigger discount because of 200m doses, they're getting a bigger discount because they're not first. If you pay to be first in the queue then you pay a premium for that - a premium that in the grand scheme of things is fantastic value for money.
    Rubbish

    Ours are more expensive because we dont have the economies of scale of ordering 200m I thought you understood Capitalism

    They are due to get more doses than us by 31/12/20 according to press yesterday

    How many doses have the "first in the queue" had so far?


    How come others who werent first in the queue already have more doses than us? ie USA

    You do realise this is a taster of things to come under BREXIT surely we have sacrificed buying power for sovereignty. Which I am fine with and voted for but you seem unable to accept.
    Rubbish.

    We've already vaccinated 500k and will likely be at least a million by the end of the year. Are you seriously saying they will get 5 million vaccinated (you have to scaled up) by 31/12/20 by then?

    As for the USA we have 3x the amount they have vaccinated per capita. Last stat I saw was they were 0.17 per thousand and we were 0.51 per thousand.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,876
    Oh god not the ghastly Donald Trump again. Cancel cancel cancel. I've posted a few times of my recurring vision that he will leave the White House under physical compulsion in a horizontal position. We'll soon find out. Whatever, he WILL have to leave, and once he does I hope to stop having any recurring visions involving him at all. They are not welcome.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,343
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Shielding back in operation...

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1341322592855023619?s=20

    I was unaware that shielding ever went away. TBH
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,550
    Gaussian said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    gealbhan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    The UK is paying $37 per dose of the Moderna vaccine. The EU is paying $18 per dose. Both buyers ordered 40m doses. The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.

    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    But it’s not the end picture though? If the others vaccinate quicker, even though giving us head start go passed us. they will have vaccinated faster at half the price in the end picture? Plus learnt from our pilot scheme giving it to people with allergies for example? 😕
    But that's not the case. The EU is not going to be vaccinating quicker than us.

    We will get through our priority list before the EU does the same. Quibbling over pennies per dose but getting your doses months later is a very false economy when you look at the cost of Covid in both lives and damage to the economy.

    Plus malcolm's numbers didn't come with a source and don't match what anyone else is saying. Everyone else is reporting we're paying a bit more but getting the vaccines month's sooner - paying a bit more but getting it sooner is fantastic value for money in the grand scheme of things.
    What's more, the Spiegel article strongly suggested that it was French protectionism of Sanofi that led to smaller later EU orders.
    Even more so now that the GSK/Sanofi vaccine has failed to launch. The EU has got huge dependence on CureVac coming up with a working vaccine.

    I have to say the whole EU vaccine scheme looks to me like one of those "how not to do something" examples that opponents of the EU will use in the future. Between Pfizer, Moderna, AZ and J&J the UK is probably second best placed in the world wrt vaccines after Japan.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Shielding back in operation...

    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1341322592855023619?s=20

    I wonder how many never stopped shielding? My grandparents have been shielding since March and have never stopped doing so. Thankfully two of them have their first vaccine dose already so we are seeing light at the end of the tunnel now.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,673
    Nigelb said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I was talking this morning to a chum whose son is high up in public health and sits in the Covid COBRA meetings.

    Word from him was that this new mutation is bastard contagious....

    Is that the scientific consensus ?
    Oh, I doubt it. But it is the consensus in COBRA, which is what counts when formulating actions going forward.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,418
    BioNTech confident COVID-19 vaccine effective against new UK mutation
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-biontech-idUSKBN28V2M3

    "The vaccine contains >1270 amino acids, & only 9 of them changed."

    The vaccine induces multiple antibodies to the spike protein, so it seems unlikely that the mutation will evade more than a portion of them.
    We should have answers within a couple of weeks.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    edited December 2020
    MaxPB said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Philip_Thompson said:
    » show previous quotes
    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    How many doses have we got ahead of EU?


    Why couldnt we have done both?

    They have ordered 200m doses BTW so bound to be cheaper

    https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-reach-agreement-supply-eu-200-million

    We have an order for 40m due for delivery by March. Who the hell cares if we're paying a couple of extra dollars per dose?
    We have an order that was supposed to deliver 10m doses by 31/12/20 how many have we got? What is the likely impact on the timescale for the rest of the order? Its not a couple extra per dose either

    EU has an order to get 200m by April. Same issues apply presumably
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,343
    Philip_Thompson said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Philip_Thompson said:
    » show previous quotes
    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    How many doses have we got ahead of EU?


    Why couldnt we have done both?

    They have ordered 200m doses BTW so bound to be cheaper

    https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-reach-agreement-supply-eu-200-million

    We couldn't have done both because we would be back of the queue. The price isn't relevant, what is relevant is getting it first.

    They're cheaper because they're further down the queue than we are. They're not getting a bigger discount because of 200m doses, they're getting a bigger discount because they're not first. If you pay to be first in the queue then you pay a premium for that - a premium that in the grand scheme of things is fantastic value for money.
    Rubbish

    Ours are more expensive because we dont have the economies of scale of ordering 200m I thought you understood Capitalism

    They are due to get more doses than us by 31/12/20 according to press yesterday

    How many doses have the "first in the queue" had so far?


    How come others who werent first in the queue already have more doses than us? ie USA

    You do realise this is a taster of things to come under BREXIT surely we have sacrificed buying power for sovereignty. Which I am fine with and voted for but you seem unable to accept.
    Rubbish.

    We've already vaccinated 500k and will likely be at least a million by the end of the year. Are you seriously saying they will get 5 million vaccinated (you have to scaled up) by 31/12/20 by then?

    As for the USA we have 3x the amount they have vaccinated per capita. Last stat I saw was they were 0.17 per thousand and we were 0.51 per thousand.
    America will overtake us per capita. Moderna and Pfizer are American companies with huge manufacturing capability in America. The USA has ordered squillions of doses and has the manpower to inject millions of people a day

    The only obstacle might be the anti-vaxxers

    This isn’t just a Yankee problem. Reportedly, over 50% of French people say they will refuse the jab
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,418
    Gaussian said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    gealbhan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    The UK is paying $37 per dose of the Moderna vaccine. The EU is paying $18 per dose. Both buyers ordered 40m doses. The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.

    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    But it’s not the end picture though? If the others vaccinate quicker, even though giving us head start go passed us. they will have vaccinated faster at half the price in the end picture? Plus learnt from our pilot scheme giving it to people with allergies for example? 😕
    But that's not the case. The EU is not going to be vaccinating quicker than us.

    We will get through our priority list before the EU does the same. Quibbling over pennies per dose but getting your doses months later is a very false economy when you look at the cost of Covid in both lives and damage to the economy.

    Plus malcolm's numbers didn't come with a source and don't match what anyone else is saying. Everyone else is reporting we're paying a bit more but getting the vaccines month's sooner - paying a bit more but getting it sooner is fantastic value for money in the grand scheme of things.
    What's more, the Spiegel article strongly suggested that it was French protectionism of Sanofi that led to smaller later EU orders.
    And disappointingly the Sanofi/GSK effort has been setback by at least six months.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Watched the new Grand Tour yesterday, poor I thought.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Leon said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Philip_Thompson said:
    » show previous quotes
    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    How many doses have we got ahead of EU?


    Why couldnt we have done both?

    They have ordered 200m doses BTW so bound to be cheaper

    https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-reach-agreement-supply-eu-200-million

    We couldn't have done both because we would be back of the queue. The price isn't relevant, what is relevant is getting it first.

    They're cheaper because they're further down the queue than we are. They're not getting a bigger discount because of 200m doses, they're getting a bigger discount because they're not first. If you pay to be first in the queue then you pay a premium for that - a premium that in the grand scheme of things is fantastic value for money.
    Rubbish

    Ours are more expensive because we dont have the economies of scale of ordering 200m I thought you understood Capitalism

    They are due to get more doses than us by 31/12/20 according to press yesterday

    How many doses have the "first in the queue" had so far?


    How come others who werent first in the queue already have more doses than us? ie USA

    You do realise this is a taster of things to come under BREXIT surely we have sacrificed buying power for sovereignty. Which I am fine with and voted for but you seem unable to accept.
    Rubbish.

    We've already vaccinated 500k and will likely be at least a million by the end of the year. Are you seriously saying they will get 5 million vaccinated (you have to scaled up) by 31/12/20 by then?

    As for the USA we have 3x the amount they have vaccinated per capita. Last stat I saw was they were 0.17 per thousand and we were 0.51 per thousand.
    America will overtake us per capita. Moderna and Pfizer are American companies with huge manufacturing capability in America. The USA has ordered squillions of doses and has the manpower to inject millions of people a day

    The only obstacle might be the anti-vaxxers

    This isn’t just a Yankee problem. Reportedly, over 50% of French people say they will refuse the jab
    Indeed they likely will but haven't yet which BJO fallaciously claimed.

    Plus the USA has a 100% exclusivity deal with Moderna until after we will have finished with Pfizer already. Joining the EU scheme wouldn't have changed that.

    The question to answer is whether the EU's 200 million will all be received before the UK's 40 million are all received? If so then the EU have done better, if not the UK have done better.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    edited December 2020
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Watched the new Grand Tour yesterday, poor I thought.

    That show needs taking out the back and shooting. If they can't even make the big budget one off spectacular ones any good, its the end of the road.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited December 2020
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Watched the new Grand Tour yesterday, poor I thought.

    That show needs taking out the back and shooting.
    They need to cancel it, I always have thought the Grand Tour wasn't great to be honest.

    Even the last few series of Top Gear (before they left the BBC) had gone downhill to be honest.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Nigelb said:

    BioNTech confident COVID-19 vaccine effective against new UK mutation
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-biontech-idUSKBN28V2M3

    "The vaccine contains >1270 amino acids, & only 9 of them changed."

    The vaccine induces multiple antibodies to the spike protein, so it seems unlikely that the mutation will evade more than a portion of them.
    We should have answers within a couple of weeks.

    Yes, I read this earlier, along with a New Scientist piece that handed the science to the doom-pornographers.

    PB is at its very worst at the moment – given that there is no such thing as a closed network, people on this forum should take more responsibility for what they write.

    Sean – I am looking at you (but you are not the only one).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,418
    https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1341302874618404864
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,686
    Trump has said he will leave office now the EC has voted for Biden and once Congress confirms that result in January

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/26/politics/trump-leave-office-electoral-college/index.html
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,673
    Floater said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1341327699772657666

    Son works seasonally at a supermarket

    He said people in store at 3am but never really rammed - no shortages.

    He did note though couples were going round with a full trolley EACH.

    Thats one way to empty shelves.....
    Although, wheeling two trollies round is not unusual for the big Christmas shop. We've certainly done it in previous years.

    When we were having a huge family gathering....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    Who has orders for the Johnson and Johnson vaccine? Because I believe that's the next one up, probably know results mid Jan.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,550
    bigjohnowls said:

    MaxPB said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Philip_Thompson said:
    » show previous quotes
    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    How many doses have we got ahead of EU?


    Why couldnt we have done both?

    They have ordered 200m doses BTW so bound to be cheaper

    https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-reach-agreement-supply-eu-200-million

    We have an order for 40m due for delivery by March. Who the hell cares if we're paying a couple of extra dollars per dose?
    We have an order that was supposed to deliver 10m doses by 31/12/20 how many have we got? What is the likely impact on the timescale for the rest of the order? Its not a couple extra per dose either

    EU has an order to get 200m by April. Same issues apply presumably
    The EU has 100m for H12021 and then another 100m undated which is expected to be late in 2021. The US is having the same problem with Pfizer essentially telling them that the only way for faster deliveries is for the US government to direct input materials to the US market from overseas which would lead to other countries such as Japan losing out and obviously the US is unwilling to do that.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/PJTheEconomist/status/1341305807502254081

    Anti-Londoners of PB are rejoicing at such news!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    kinabalu said:

    Oh god not the ghastly Donald Trump again. Cancel cancel cancel. I've posted a few times of my recurring vision that he will leave the White House under physical compulsion in a horizontal position. We'll soon find out. Whatever, he WILL have to leave, and once he does I hope to stop having any recurring visions involving him at all. They are not welcome.


    Whether Trump leaves voluntarily or via Secret Service escort, he will be out by 1159 EST on 20 January, which has been the case since 270 was called for Biden many, many weeks ago.

    The rest is just ludicrous fluff – PBers luxuriating in pathetic fantasies.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,686
    edited December 2020
    On previous thread interestingly if the GOP do win the Georgia runoffs and hold the Senate then Biden will be the first incoming Democrat President since before FDR to enter the White House without their party in control of both chambers of Congress.

    The other Presidents since World War 2 who entered office without their party in full control of Congress, Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Bush Snr were all Republicans
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    HYUFD said:

    On previous thread interestingly if the GOP do win the Georgia runoffs and hold the Senate then Biden will be the first incoming President since before FDR to enter the White House without their party in control of both chambers of Congress.

    The others since World War 2, Nixon, Reagan and Bush Snr were all Republicans

    You've posted this at least six times?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,777
    FPT @MaxPB
    malcolmg said:

    The UK is paying $37 per dose of the Moderna vaccine. The EU is paying $18 per dose. Both buyers ordered 40m doses. The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.

    Malc stick to Scotland, facts aren't your strength.

    Har Har, Max, Your lack of self awareness, given the mince you post, is spectacular
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1341333402243489793

    Because he can't be negative. It's genuinely a problem almost uniquely applicable to him, that is why he is the worst PM for this crisis.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    edited December 2020
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Watched the new Grand Tour yesterday, poor I thought.

    That show needs taking out the back and shooting.
    They need to cancel it, I always have thought the Grand Tour wasn't great to be honest.

    Even the last few series of Top Gear (before they left the BBC) had gone downhill to be honest.
    Totally agree. We all know its scripted comedy japes, but it had become all too predictable.

    However, despite the Grand Tour is poor on the whole, did still manage to retain the odd really good episode (or segment). But its done for now.

    I notice they have this YouTube DriveTribe / FoodTribe thing. That seems more return to old old school Top Gear, as in more proper car reviews, mixed with some sillyness.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,550
    Nigelb said:

    Gaussian said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    gealbhan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    The UK is paying $37 per dose of the Moderna vaccine. The EU is paying $18 per dose. Both buyers ordered 40m doses. The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.

    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    But it’s not the end picture though? If the others vaccinate quicker, even though giving us head start go passed us. they will have vaccinated faster at half the price in the end picture? Plus learnt from our pilot scheme giving it to people with allergies for example? 😕
    But that's not the case. The EU is not going to be vaccinating quicker than us.

    We will get through our priority list before the EU does the same. Quibbling over pennies per dose but getting your doses months later is a very false economy when you look at the cost of Covid in both lives and damage to the economy.

    Plus malcolm's numbers didn't come with a source and don't match what anyone else is saying. Everyone else is reporting we're paying a bit more but getting the vaccines month's sooner - paying a bit more but getting it sooner is fantastic value for money in the grand scheme of things.
    What's more, the Spiegel article strongly suggested that it was French protectionism of Sanofi that led to smaller later EU orders.
    And disappointingly the Sanofi/GSK effort has been setback by at least six months.
    Six months may as well become never, at this rate surely Sanofi need to be instructed to licence manufacturing for Moderna, AZ or J&J. They have substantial manufacturing capacity and waiting for an indefinite period of time to reformulate their vaccine and then put it through another set of PII/III trials seems like a huge waste of resources.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    MarqueeMark said:

    Floater said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1341327699772657666

    Son works seasonally at a supermarket

    He said people in store at 3am but never really rammed - no shortages.

    He did note though couples were going round with a full trolley EACH.

    Thats one way to empty shelves.....
    Although, wheeling two trollies round is not unusual for the big Christmas shop. We've certainly done it in previous years.

    When we were having a huge family gathering....
    Whenever I feel annoyed at someone apparently stockpiling in the supermarket, I have to remind myself that they might well be shopping for themselves and their elderly/vulnerable neighbours
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Christ on a bike....

    https://twitter.com/OrlaithiF_MLA/status/1341127684852764673?s=19

    What's your point?

    A Sinn Fein politician wants and looks forward to a united Ireland by peaceful means, acknowledges the troubles but emphasises those days are in the past. It seems uncontroversial and certainly unsurprising.
    Either her Gaelic isn't very good, or Google Translate isn't!
    Both are probably true. Irish is taught in schools but no-one speaks it, so there is not much of a corpus for Google Translate to learn from. Ireland is no Israel, where Hebrew was successfully resurrected.
    Ireland (most of it anyway) is independent but it's language doesn't appear to be doing so well. There's little prospect of Welsh independence but the language seems to be coming back.
    Scots Gaelic is on it's last legs, apparently.

    Hmmm.
    There are a number of Schools in Scotland that teach in Gaelic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_schools_providing_Gaelic_medium_education_in_Scotland

    Why any parent would want to impede their child's education in this way escapes me completely.
    Surely the language teaching lobby has always told us that learning one foreign language helps with others. If true (which tbh I doubt) then French, German and Spanish results should be on the up at those schools.
    There's some research I think which confirms that. I believe teaching of foreign languages in British schools is declining generally, though. Or is it just European languages?

    We don't even teach English in our schools. I went to a grammar school in the 1970s and was never taught English grammar. And if you don't know how your own language works, how on earth are you going to be able to learn other ones?

    I was 11 when I went to America in 1975, and that was the first place that I got taught English grammar. It was taught in a very rigid manner, but very useful later on.

    English and maths were well taught in Georgia, the rest of the subjects much less so.
    I went to school in DC for two years and learned almost nothing except how to be an expert shot with a pistol on the school's shooting range.

    British kids learn almost no English grammar. I have had plenty of native English speaking A level students who can't name the seventeen English verbs that can't take the present continuous tense. I have also met foreign students of English (usually Dutch or German) who can.

    So if a British student has achieved some proficiency in one foreign language they will almost certainly do better at a second just because they have finally had to learn some grammar.
    Really wish I was a linguist. Rather be a linguist than most other things I wish I was. I've heard that when learning a new language there comes a kind of "dam breaking" moment when you make a leap and you reach the next step. Two or three of those and you arrive at competency. Then it's about fine-tuning, playing with it, getting the quirky tics & tacs, and lo you're fluent. I've never managed the first quantum move as an adult. School French was ok but beyond that, no. I had total immersion German lessons on the company for 12 weeks when I lived in Vienna and yet did not progress much beyond "das ist ein hund". I nailed that - totally - but then seemed to get stuck. On a brighter note, I'm doing Spiral soup to nuts atm and I think it's doing wonders for my French. Can follow bits of it without looking at the subtitles.

    [..]
    I don't think it's like this. (I have learnt other languages to a reasonably high level). Fluency in languages comes from putting in the hard work and exposing yourself to listening, speaking, reading and writing. Of these, listening is the most important. You need to do lots of it.

    About 5% of the population is a genius at languages; maybe 10% just don't have the way of thinking. For the other 85%, it's a case of application and exposure and you will get to a decent standard.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1341333402243489793

    Because he can't be negative. It's genuinely a problem almost uniquely applicable to him, that is why he is the worst PM for this crisis.

    To be fair, if he had stood up in March and said, this shit, this is for the next 2 years. He would have been bashed from pillar to post for being negative.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Watched the new Grand Tour yesterday, poor I thought.

    That show needs taking out the back and shooting.
    They need to cancel it, I always have thought the Grand Tour wasn't great to be honest.

    Even the last few series of Top Gear (before they left the BBC) had gone downhill to be honest.
    Totally agree. We all know its scripted comedy japes, but it had become all too predictable.

    However, despite the Grand Tour is poor on the whole, did still manage to retain the odd really good episode (or segment). But its done for now.

    I notice they have this YouTube DriveTribe / FoodTribe thing. That seems more return to old old school Top Gear, as in more proper car reviews, mixed with some sillyness.
    What is your favourite Grand Tour episode?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1341333402243489793

    Because he can't be negative. It's genuinely a problem almost uniquely applicable to him, that is why he is the worst PM for this crisis.

    To be fair, if he had stood up in March and said, this shit, this is for the next 2 years. He would have been bashed from pillar to post for being negative.
    I think there surely must have been a better balance to be found than "all over in 12 weeks" and "back to normal by Christmas"
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gaussian said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    gealbhan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    The UK is paying $37 per dose of the Moderna vaccine. The EU is paying $18 per dose. Both buyers ordered 40m doses. The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.

    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    But it’s not the end picture though? If the others vaccinate quicker, even though giving us head start go passed us. they will have vaccinated faster at half the price in the end picture? Plus learnt from our pilot scheme giving it to people with allergies for example? 😕
    But that's not the case. The EU is not going to be vaccinating quicker than us.

    We will get through our priority list before the EU does the same. Quibbling over pennies per dose but getting your doses months later is a very false economy when you look at the cost of Covid in both lives and damage to the economy.

    Plus malcolm's numbers didn't come with a source and don't match what anyone else is saying. Everyone else is reporting we're paying a bit more but getting the vaccines month's sooner - paying a bit more but getting it sooner is fantastic value for money in the grand scheme of things.
    What's more, the Spiegel article strongly suggested that it was French protectionism of Sanofi that led to smaller later EU orders.
    And disappointingly the Sanofi/GSK effort has been setback by at least six months.
    Six months may as well become never, at this rate surely Sanofi need to be instructed to licence manufacturing for Moderna, AZ or J&J. They have substantial manufacturing capacity and waiting for an indefinite period of time to reformulate their vaccine and then put it through another set of PII/III trials seems like a huge waste of resources.
    Indeed. If it's a six months' late, it's a dodo.

    Move on!
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Watched the new Grand Tour yesterday, poor I thought.

    That show needs taking out the back and shooting.
    They need to cancel it, I always have thought the Grand Tour wasn't great to be honest.

    Even the last few series of Top Gear (before they left the BBC) had gone downhill to be honest.
    Totally agree. We all know its scripted comedy japes, but it had become all too predictable.

    However, despite the Grand Tour is poor on the whole, did still manage to retain the odd really good episode (or segment). But its done for now.

    I notice they have this YouTube DriveTribe / FoodTribe thing. That seems more return to old old school Top Gear, as in more proper car reviews, mixed with some sillyness.
    The Grand Tour is very much at the twilight stage. The regular series was axed after the last one and it's just occasional specials now so I think it'll peter out soon.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MarqueeMark said:

    Floater said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1341327699772657666

    Son works seasonally at a supermarket

    He said people in store at 3am but never really rammed - no shortages.

    He did note though couples were going round with a full trolley EACH.

    Thats one way to empty shelves.....
    Although, wheeling two trollies round is not unusual for the big Christmas shop. We've certainly done it in previous years.

    When we were having a huge family gathering....
    Not only that but at Christmas and Easter everyone seems to overreact because of the fact the Supermarkets will be closed for a day . . . so the weekly shop gets doubled.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,418
    https://twitter.com/sciencecohen/status/1341199121206575110
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,205
    Apologies if this has been posted before, but following this morning's discussion on language, it may amuse some.

    How to Speak During Coronavirus...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVQ29tfOvl8&feature=youtu.be
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,777
    MaxPB said:

    Gaussian said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    gealbhan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    The UK is paying $37 per dose of the Moderna vaccine. The EU is paying $18 per dose. Both buyers ordered 40m doses. The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.

    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    But it’s not the end picture though? If the others vaccinate quicker, even though giving us head start go passed us. they will have vaccinated faster at half the price in the end picture? Plus learnt from our pilot scheme giving it to people with allergies for example? 😕
    But that's not the case. The EU is not going to be vaccinating quicker than us.

    We will get through our priority list before the EU does the same. Quibbling over pennies per dose but getting your doses months later is a very false economy when you look at the cost of Covid in both lives and damage to the economy.

    Plus malcolm's numbers didn't come with a source and don't match what anyone else is saying. Everyone else is reporting we're paying a bit more but getting the vaccines month's sooner - paying a bit more but getting it sooner is fantastic value for money in the grand scheme of things.
    What's more, the Spiegel article strongly suggested that it was French protectionism of Sanofi that led to smaller later EU orders.
    Even more so now that the GSK/Sanofi vaccine has failed to launch. The EU has got huge dependence on CureVac coming up with a working vaccine.

    I have to say the whole EU vaccine scheme looks to me like one of those "how not to do something" examples that opponents of the EU will use in the future. Between Pfizer, Moderna, AZ and J&J the UK is probably second best placed in the world wrt vaccines after Japan.
    Har Har Har , what utter jingoistic bollox.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,418
    Leon said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Philip_Thompson said:
    » show previous quotes
    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    How many doses have we got ahead of EU?


    Why couldnt we have done both?

    They have ordered 200m doses BTW so bound to be cheaper

    https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-reach-agreement-supply-eu-200-million

    We couldn't have done both because we would be back of the queue. The price isn't relevant, what is relevant is getting it first.

    They're cheaper because they're further down the queue than we are. They're not getting a bigger discount because of 200m doses, they're getting a bigger discount because they're not first. If you pay to be first in the queue then you pay a premium for that - a premium that in the grand scheme of things is fantastic value for money.
    Rubbish

    Ours are more expensive because we dont have the economies of scale of ordering 200m I thought you understood Capitalism

    They are due to get more doses than us by 31/12/20 according to press yesterday

    How many doses have the "first in the queue" had so far?


    How come others who werent first in the queue already have more doses than us? ie USA

    You do realise this is a taster of things to come under BREXIT surely we have sacrificed buying power for sovereignty. Which I am fine with and voted for but you seem unable to accept.
    Rubbish.

    We've already vaccinated 500k and will likely be at least a million by the end of the year. Are you seriously saying they will get 5 million vaccinated (you have to scaled up) by 31/12/20 by then?

    As for the USA we have 3x the amount they have vaccinated per capita. Last stat I saw was they were 0.17 per thousand and we were 0.51 per thousand.
    America will overtake us per capita. Moderna and Pfizer are American companies with huge manufacturing capability in America. The USA has ordered squillions of doses and has the manpower to inject millions of people a day

    The only obstacle might be the anti-vaxxers

    This isn’t just a Yankee problem. Reportedly, over 50% of French people say they will refuse the jab
    Bizarrely, Congress only just approved funding for distribution of the vaccine.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,951
    edited December 2020
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/PJTheEconomist/status/1341305807502254081

    Anti-Londoners of PB are rejoicing at such news!

    Surely, ‘anti Londoners go mental that all resources are once again to be diverted to the capital?’
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    bigjohnowls said:

    MaxPB said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Philip_Thompson said:
    » show previous quotes
    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    How many doses have we got ahead of EU?


    Why couldnt we have done both?

    They have ordered 200m doses BTW so bound to be cheaper

    https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-reach-agreement-supply-eu-200-million

    We have an order for 40m due for delivery by March. Who the hell cares if we're paying a couple of extra dollars per dose?
    We have an order that was supposed to deliver 10m doses by 31/12/20 how many have we got? What is the likely impact on the timescale for the rest of the order? Its not a couple extra per dose either

    EU has an order to get 200m by April. Same issues apply presumably
    You're delusional if you think that the EU will get its 200m before we get our 40m.

    Had we pooled our 40m (which had already from memory been purchased before the EU scheme was up and running) then we would have to pool that with the EU scheme - and we'd have ended up with 1/6th of the doses as a result (40/240).

    We are better off with 100% of what we've ordered than 1/6th of the combined total.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    MaxPB said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MaxPB said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Philip_Thompson said:
    » show previous quotes
    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    How many doses have we got ahead of EU?


    Why couldnt we have done both?

    They have ordered 200m doses BTW so bound to be cheaper

    https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-reach-agreement-supply-eu-200-million

    We have an order for 40m due for delivery by March. Who the hell cares if we're paying a couple of extra dollars per dose?
    We have an order that was supposed to deliver 10m doses by 31/12/20 how many have we got? What is the likely impact on the timescale for the rest of the order? Its not a couple extra per dose either

    EU has an order to get 200m by April. Same issues apply presumably
    The EU has 100m for H12021 and then another 100m undated which is expected to be late in 2021. The US is having the same problem with Pfizer essentially telling them that the only way for faster deliveries is for the US government to direct input materials to the US market from overseas which would lead to other countries such as Japan losing out and obviously the US is unwilling to do that.

    The EU Contracted with Pfizer for 200m on 11/11/20 and a further 100m option

    Wfere are you getting your delivery schedules?

    https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/coronavirus/uk-to-have-14m-doses-of-covid-vaccines-ready-by-end-of-year/

    https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-reach-agreement-supply-eu-200-million

    https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-response/public-health/coronavirus-vaccines-strategy_en
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1341324020671721473

    Was Johnson hurt by a bridge as a child?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,343
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I was talking this morning to a chum whose son is high up in public health and sits in the Covid COBRA meetings.

    Word from him was that this new mutation is bastard contagious....

    That’s why the Times quote about Supercovid’s extra infectiousness leapt out at me. They didn’t cite the 0.4 lower range of R, but the higher one. 0.93. The article (and a similar one on Sky News) was clearly implying that scientists, even at this early stage, are tending to pessimism.

    Brrrrr
    Discussion here yesterday suggested it may just hang around in the body for longer, which wouldn't be so bad. But other sources (for example the good Dr John Campbell's video on it - his videoblogs are excellent, if you havent caught them) suggest it has other advantages including being better able to fight off the immune system's defences, which isn't so good.
    Another suggestion in The Times is that Supercovid may still respond to vaccines, but be more resistant. In other words Pfizer’s 95% may go down to 60% or whatever.
    That's an irresponsible suggestion because we don't know that there is any effect on the vaccine yet. Speculation here strikes me as counterproductive.
    Then tell that to the Times science writer. I am merely conveying what he says

    ‘It’s unlikely that the vaccines won’t work but it is possible that they won’t work quite so well‘

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/foreign-experts-scoff-at-british-response-to-mutant-virus-kbw2kwpcm
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,777
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I was talking this morning to a chum whose son is high up in public health and sits in the Covid COBRA meetings.

    Word from him was that this new mutation is bastard contagious....

    That’s why the Times quote about Supercovid’s extra infectiousness leapt out at me. They didn’t cite the 0.4 lower range of R, but the higher one. 0.93. The article (and a similar one on Sky News) was clearly implying that scientists, even at this early stage, are tending to pessimism.

    Brrrrr
    Discussion here yesterday suggested it may just hang around in the body for longer, which wouldn't be so bad. But other sources (for example the good Dr John Campbell's video on it - his videoblogs are excellent, if you havent caught them) suggest it has other advantages including being better able to fight off the immune system's defences, which isn't so good.
    They are indeed, my wife watches his video every day. Great information and in form a layman can understand.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,686
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Bloomberg - EU rejected UK's fishing compromise.

    Hi ho, hi ho, its off to WTO we go . . .

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1341329314592264192?s=20

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1341329718478565376?s=20
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    How do you delete somebody else's post?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    bigjohnowls said:

    MaxPB said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MaxPB said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Philip_Thompson said:
    » show previous quotes
    The British have vaccinated 500k people already. The EU haven't vaccinated anyone.

    The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down and got the vaccines first. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
    How many doses have we got ahead of EU?


    Why couldnt we have done both?

    They have ordered 200m doses BTW so bound to be cheaper

    https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-reach-agreement-supply-eu-200-million

    We have an order for 40m due for delivery by March. Who the hell cares if we're paying a couple of extra dollars per dose?
    We have an order that was supposed to deliver 10m doses by 31/12/20 how many have we got? What is the likely impact on the timescale for the rest of the order? Its not a couple extra per dose either

    EU has an order to get 200m by April. Same issues apply presumably
    The EU has 100m for H12021 and then another 100m undated which is expected to be late in 2021. The US is having the same problem with Pfizer essentially telling them that the only way for faster deliveries is for the US government to direct input materials to the US market from overseas which would lead to other countries such as Japan losing out and obviously the US is unwilling to do that.

    The EU Contracted with Pfizer for 200m on 11/11/20 and a further 100m option

    Wfere are you getting your delivery schedules?

    https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/coronavirus/uk-to-have-14m-doses-of-covid-vaccines-ready-by-end-of-year/

    https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-reach-agreement-supply-eu-200-million

    https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-response/public-health/coronavirus-vaccines-strategy_en
    Yes and we're ahead of them in the queue as we had ordered long, long, long before 11/11/20. Which is why we've paid a premium to be first.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,418
    HYUFD said:

    Trump has said he will leave office now the EC has voted for Biden and once Congress confirms that result in January

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/26/politics/trump-leave-office-electoral-college/index.html

    But yesterday hosted a meeting in the White House with Congress Republicans to discuss efforts to refuse confirmation of the results. (Which will likely come to nothing.)
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,061
    Anabobazina said:

    kinabalu said:

    Oh god not the ghastly Donald Trump again. Cancel cancel cancel. I've posted a few times of my recurring vision that he will leave the White House under physical compulsion in a horizontal position. We'll soon find out. Whatever, he WILL have to leave, and once he does I hope to stop having any recurring visions involving him at all. They are not welcome.


    Whether Trump leaves voluntarily or via Secret Service escort, he will be out by 1159 EST on 20 January, which has been the case since 270 was called for Biden many, many weeks ago.

    The rest is just ludicrous fluff – PBers luxuriating in pathetic fantasies.
    I want this to continue and to go completely over the top barking, which it has signs of doing now with Sidney Powell and Michael Flynn getting involved more. I want to see Trump taken out in a straight jacket ranting.

    Why? Well once we get to the point of the aliens fixing the election for Biden the lizard man it may eventually bring a significant number of the GOP to their senses and ensure this never happens again.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,673
    Anabobazina said:

    I see we are back to unsubstantiated hysteria on here.

    I've been taking a break from PB for this reason – I see I was right to do so.

    As lovely as this site is as a meeting place, it's primary purpose is about betting on outcomes. It is about using information to get ahead of the crowd. Sometimes it is gossip, sometimes it is well-sourced insights, sometimes smart thinking. Good luck in closing down any of those elements.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    Fifa has lodged a criminal complaint against former president Sepp Blatter over the finances of a museum in Zurich, Switzerland.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/55410695
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,996
    edited December 2020
    Thinking ahead medium - long term, the virus may well mutate - and this year's protection whilst probably 'good enough' for the next ~ 5 or so with the vaccine given to over 55s may well reduce in efficacy.
    Given we know just how much the virus can shut down an economy and also the fact that we are world beating* at the r&d part, why doesn't the Gov't announce a few glass vial manufacturing plants to be built on shore.

    There's a global shortage.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-glass-vial-shortage-could-delay-global-rollout-2020-5?r=US&IR=T

    Spare capacity could and would be snapped up by other countries. We have the expertise in this country to build the plants. To make the vials. It's one of the most obvious good uses of potential gov't spend I've seen in my life. It could be run at a profit to UK plc.

    * Yes on this one we really are
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,658
    https://twitter.com/_ElizabethMay/status/1341334112200761345
This discussion has been closed.

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