Pfizer is the toughest vaccine to distribute and we're also doing the hardest brackets (80+ & care homes) first.
So with easier to distribute vaccines and easier age groups and more practice we should see superior rollout numbers over time. The limiting factor will be how much vaccine we actually have in the country not distribution within the country (imo).
Care homes are particularly difficult to vaccinate with the Pfizer jab because you can't take the jab to the home, you need to take the patients to the hospital. Not at all easy logistically. People who can make their own way to where they need to be vaccinated is easier.
If it wasn't for the supercooled logistics it would be easier to take the doses to the home and get it done quickly.
Are you certain about this, PT?
Your post has prompted me to call my mum`s care home and they have (again) said that nurses will be coming to the care home to administer the vaccine to all the residents in one go. They said that care home residents cannot be taken to an external venue to be vaccinated as some cannot be moved due to their condition.
It will happen ultimately and they are planning it, but it is tougher to organise with the Pfizer jab than with other jabs. With a normal vaccine they could have relatively easily done it in the last fortnight - but with this one splitting off from the box of 975 vaccines a limited number to take to the home is a logistical challenge.
My experience is that staff are going to the hospital to get their vaccine already (which will reduce the risk already) prior to the residents themselves getting it. I do not know the timescale of getting it into the home but they are working on it I know but it is logistically complicated.
I believe they are working on plans to get it approved to split off doses so they can take a subset of doses eg to a home but that is where my knowledge is fuzzy and others will know better. I have no idea on the timescale of that. Could be days, could be weeks, I'm not sure but it won't be long as they are the number one priority.
That all sounds like the plan to vaccinate care home residents first is not proving to be correct.
Out of the 500k+ vaccinated with the first jab already - none of these are care home residents?
I wouldn't say none, especially since many care home residents do go back and forth between hospitals regularly. Its a very real challenge, so that is why they are rolling out phase one and phase two simultaneously.
As soon as its possible to get it into the home that will be top priority but simply uplifting care home residents and taking them into hospital en-masse isn't possible for the reasons your mother's home said. The staff can make it there much easier though so your mum's home's staff should already be largely vaccinated which should give an element of protection to your mum already.
I accept your point re: protection, but that is not where I am coming from. I`m concerned about visiting rights. I know what is going to happen, we get to the point when 75% (say) of residents are vaccinated and 25% not and the care home still say no visiting. What if part of the 25% is residents who decline to give consent to be vaccinated?
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
You would have thought people on the left could realise that this is not a naturally left wing country, not even centre left. Counting is the first rule of politics and the most forgotten. Especially having lost Scotland, the choice for the left is an updated form of Blairite politics or Tory govts.
For our GE24, probably yes, but longer term I'm optimistic for the Left.
The top 5 global priorities -
Climate change. The emancipation of women. Racial equality. Sustainable growth. Fairer distribution of wealth.
These are all better tackled from a Left perspective imo. Indeed some of them can only be tackled from there.
Sure, they are priorities, and the left have some of the answers, as does the right. But if the left dont learn to count, the only solutions that will be tried here will be those of the right. UK politics is not an even battle of ideas, it is uphill and difficult for the left to win, especially to win and hold on to significant power. It is no surprise only Blair has done this for them.
I sort of agree with you but my sense is that Labour can win from the Left given the right leader and messaging and policies. The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash.
Only with Scottish MPs support and certainly for any sustained period
That is how it looks right now, I agree. But I think this pandemic might change things. It's emphasizing the value of activist government - even this one - and showing how important community is. Then when it's over, Climate Change will increasingly dominate and that too is an issue of similar bent. So, let's see.
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
You would have thought people on the left could realise that this is not a naturally left wing country, not even centre left. Counting is the first rule of politics and the most forgotten. Especially having lost Scotland, the choice for the left is an updated form of Blairite politics or Tory govts.
For our GE24, probably yes, but longer term I'm optimistic for the Left.
The top 5 global priorities -
Climate change. The emancipation of women. Racial equality. Sustainable growth. Fairer distribution of wealth.
These are all better tackled from a Left perspective imo. Indeed some of them can only be tackled from there.
Sure, they are priorities, and the left have some of the answers, as does the right. But if the left dont learn to count, the only solutions that will be tried here will be those of the right. UK politics is not an even battle of ideas, it is uphill and difficult for the left to win, especially to win and hold on to significant power. It is no surprise only Blair has done this for them.
I sort of agree with you but my sense is that Labour can win from the Left given the right leader and messaging and policies. The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash.
Can as in backable at 10/1? Sure, Corbyn showed that. A soft centre left alternative could be backable 6/4.
So you might get 5 years in 50 Corbynite rule, and allow the hard right to take over the Tory party for much of the other 45 years.
Or we could have 20 years of soft centre left, with most of the other 30 a Tory party fighting on the centre ground as Cameron did.
On vaccination, I don't wish to be a killjoy, but wouldn't it be best to wait six months (or even a year) before boasting about the UK's performance? By then, we should know whether our rate of vaccination is world-beating, average or poor. In other words, it's too soon to judge right now.
It reminds me of back in May when many people were rushing to judgements about comparative death rates between countries when, as we now know, it was far too early to tell.
I think plenty of concern over delivery...but on procurement, credit where credit is due, the UK government have done well on the vaccine front.
This Country can test 500,000+ per day. The delivery of the vaccine is much simpler, Its just a jab. 2 million a day will not be a problem
I am no expert on logistics but vaccinating 2 million a day would see the whole UK vaccinated in a month
That is not anything near possible
Why not?
My wife is a nurse she can easily inject 500 people a day, just multiply it up, they have already recruited loads of retired nurses to do it, plus the armed forces, plus pharmacists. The Oxford jab is so easy to administer.
For the the flu jab - which is the easiest of jabs to administer and is done every year - the minimum time allotted for each patient at the surgery is 2 minutes. And this is if they are healthy and have no recorded medical issues. This is because the patient has to come in, run through a checklist to ensure they are safe to receive the jab and then get out again before the next person comes in so they don't mix with them.
500 jabs a day at 2 minutes a jab is 16 hours and 40 minutes. Without a break.
And that is for patients who are healthy. If they are not healthy then it takes longer as they have to be observed after the jab.
For the Covid jabs the instructions are that all patients are supposed to be observed for 15 minutes after injection, during which time they have to remain isolated from other patients. And prior to the injection the questionnaire on medical history and current health is much longer. You also have to have somewhere for all these people to sit or stand during this time whilst maintaining social distancing.
The idea that a single surgery can do 500 Covid jabs a day - even before you take into account all the non covid patients - is for the fairies. They have neither the staff nor the room.
My surgery in Barnes, Essex House, is a hub for the area. It did 2,000 vaccinations over three days. My son-in-law's mother was one of them. She is in her eighties.
As I keep saying we can test 500000+ per day. Vaccinating is so much easier.
Somewhat an apples and oranges comparison though. We can post a test to someone's home with an Amazon/Royal Mail driver and get it picked up with them too.
Can't be done with an injection.
My wife is currently doing 200+ Pfizer vaccines a day herself. It really is easy.
You said previously she could easily do 500. 200 I can believe at a stretch. Certainly not 500 under the current restrictions that have been imposed regarding patient history and post jab waiting.
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
Blair was to all extents and purposes a Tory by the time he came to power. He occupied the Wet Tory space that Thatcher foolishly abandoned,
After Thatcher and Boris and Cameron, Blair is arguably our most rightwing postwar PM, certainly on economic grounds
What!? 😲
Preposterous. Absolutely preposterous to suggest that Blair with Brown as Chancellor was more rightwing than Major with Clarke.
From 1997 to 2001 Blair spent less than the final years of the Major government and kept the top income tax rate the same
Which in part is why I voted for him in 2001.
Blair was not simply in power until 2001 though was he? Why ignore 2001+? 🙄
Even including the full Blair years from 1997 to 2001 the top rate of income tax under Blair was lower than under any postwar UK PMs bar Thatcher and Major and as I said he also spent less than Major in his early years in power.
Although a social liberal in purely economic terms Blair was arguably our most Thatcherite PM since WW2 after Thatcher herself, Thatcher even famously said 'Tony will not let us down.' He was also closely tied to the US and had a close relationship with a Republican President as she did
Early years is a legacy of what he inherited from Major, not what he chose to do himself. 🤦🏻♂️
All you've demonstrated is he inherited a sound right wing economy from Major whom you then reckon for some bizarre reason that Blair was to the right of?
If Blair was to the right of Major then did you vote Blair in 1997?
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
You would have thought people on the left could realise that this is not a naturally left wing country, not even centre left. Counting is the first rule of politics and the most forgotten. Especially having lost Scotland, the choice for the left is an updated form of Blairite politics or Tory govts.
For our GE24, probably yes, but longer term I'm optimistic for the Left.
The top 5 global priorities -
Climate change. The emancipation of women. Racial equality. Sustainable growth. Fairer distribution of wealth.
These are all better tackled from a Left perspective imo. Indeed some of them can only be tackled from there.
Sure, they are priorities, and the left have some of the answers, as does the right. But if the left dont learn to count, the only solutions that will be tried here will be those of the right. UK politics is not an even battle of ideas, it is uphill and difficult for the left to win, especially to win and hold on to significant power. It is no surprise only Blair has done this for them.
I sort of agree with you but my sense is that Labour can win from the Left given the right leader and messaging and policies. The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash.
I do agree, and Jacinda Adern is a template of how to do this. Is SKS the UK equivalent of Jacinda?
I have to say on the performance so far ... pretty darn unlikely.
For example, on Scotland, appointing El Gordo to examine constitutional matters looks like a backwards glance to the past. Gordon had his chance to change things. This doesn't even look like a serious attempt to re-imagine the UK with fresh eyes.
The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash
SKS is not a 70s rehash, but he does look like a noughties rehash.
He is way too old to do a Jacinda or a Tony. He is even older than Boris and Ed Davey. He doesn't seem to have fresh ideas, a fresh perspective.
Visually, he looks as grey as a East European dictator, circa 1970s. A bit like Ceausescu.
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
You would have thought people on the left could realise that this is not a naturally left wing country, not even centre left. Counting is the first rule of politics and the most forgotten. Especially having lost Scotland, the choice for the left is an updated form of Blairite politics or Tory govts.
For our GE24, probably yes, but longer term I'm optimistic for the Left.
The top 5 global priorities -
Climate change. The emancipation of women. Racial equality. Sustainable growth. Fairer distribution of wealth.
These are all better tackled from a Left perspective imo. Indeed some of them can only be tackled from there.
Sure, they are priorities, and the left have some of the answers, as does the right. But if the left dont learn to count, the only solutions that will be tried here will be those of the right. UK politics is not an even battle of ideas, it is uphill and difficult for the left to win, especially to win and hold on to significant power. It is no surprise only Blair has done this for them.
I sort of agree with you but my sense is that Labour can win from the Left given the right leader and messaging and policies. The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash.
Can as in backable at 10/1? Sure, Corbyn showed that. A soft centre left alternative could be backable 6/4.
So you might get 5 years in 50 Corbynite rule, and allow the hard right to take over the Tory party for much of the other 45 years.
Or we could have 20 years of soft centre left, with most of the other 30 a Tory party fighting on the centre ground as Cameron did.
I know what I would prefer.
Without Scotland of course the Tories would have won in 1950, 1964 and February 1974 too so Attlee would have lost all but 1 of his general elections instead of winning 2 and Wilson would have lost 3 elections and only won 2 rather than winning 4 and losing 1.
Only Blair of the post WW2 Labour leaders has won a majority in more than 1 general election in England
Pfizer is the toughest vaccine to distribute and we're also doing the hardest brackets (80+ & care homes) first.
So with easier to distribute vaccines and easier age groups and more practice we should see superior rollout numbers over time. The limiting factor will be how much vaccine we actually have in the country not distribution within the country (imo).
Care homes are particularly difficult to vaccinate with the Pfizer jab because you can't take the jab to the home, you need to take the patients to the hospital. Not at all easy logistically. People who can make their own way to where they need to be vaccinated is easier.
If it wasn't for the supercooled logistics it would be easier to take the doses to the home and get it done quickly.
Are you certain about this, PT?
Your post has prompted me to call my mum`s care home and they have (again) said that nurses will be coming to the care home to administer the vaccine to all the residents in one go. They said that care home residents cannot be taken to an external venue to be vaccinated as some cannot be moved due to their condition.
It will happen ultimately and they are planning it, but it is tougher to organise with the Pfizer jab than with other jabs. With a normal vaccine they could have relatively easily done it in the last fortnight - but with this one splitting off from the box of 975 vaccines a limited number to take to the home is a logistical challenge.
My experience is that staff are going to the hospital to get their vaccine already (which will reduce the risk already) prior to the residents themselves getting it. I do not know the timescale of getting it into the home but they are working on it I know but it is logistically complicated.
I believe they are working on plans to get it approved to split off doses so they can take a subset of doses eg to a home but that is where my knowledge is fuzzy and others will know better. I have no idea on the timescale of that. Could be days, could be weeks, I'm not sure but it won't be long as they are the number one priority.
That all sounds like the plan to vaccinate care home residents first is not proving to be correct.
Out of the 500k+ vaccinated with the first jab already - none of these are care home residents?
I wouldn't say none, especially since many care home residents do go back and forth between hospitals regularly. Its a very real challenge, so that is why they are rolling out phase one and phase two simultaneously.
As soon as its possible to get it into the home that will be top priority but simply uplifting care home residents and taking them into hospital en-masse isn't possible for the reasons your mother's home said. The staff can make it there much easier though so your mum's home's staff should already be largely vaccinated which should give an element of protection to your mum already.
I accept your point re: protection, but that is not where I am coming from. I`m concerned about visiting rights. I know what is going to happen, we get to the point when 75% (say) of residents are vaccinated and 25% not and the care home still say no visiting. What if part of the 25% is residents who decline to give consent to be vaccinated?
Honest answer is I do not know what will happen then. A priority quite rightly is to get them open for visitors ASAP.
I really hope that 25% is an overly pessimistic estimate.
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
You would have thought people on the left could realise that this is not a naturally left wing country, not even centre left. Counting is the first rule of politics and the most forgotten. Especially having lost Scotland, the choice for the left is an updated form of Blairite politics or Tory govts.
For our GE24, probably yes, but longer term I'm optimistic for the Left.
The top 5 global priorities -
Climate change. The emancipation of women. Racial equality. Sustainable growth. Fairer distribution of wealth.
These are all better tackled from a Left perspective imo. Indeed some of them can only be tackled from there.
Sure, they are priorities, and the left have some of the answers, as does the right. But if the left dont learn to count, the only solutions that will be tried here will be those of the right. UK politics is not an even battle of ideas, it is uphill and difficult for the left to win, especially to win and hold on to significant power. It is no surprise only Blair has done this for them.
I sort of agree with you but my sense is that Labour can win from the Left given the right leader and messaging and policies. The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash.
I do agree, and Jacinda Adern is a template of how to do this. Is SKS the UK equivalent of Jacinda?
I have to say on the performance so far ... pretty darn unlikely.
For example, on Scotland, appointing El Gordo to examine constitutional matters looks like a backwards glance to the past. Gordon had his chance to change things. This doesn't even look like a serious attempt to re-imagine the UK with fresh eyes.
The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash
SKS is not a 70s rehash, but he does look like a noughties rehash.
He is way too old to do a Jacinda or a Tony. He is even older than Boris and Ed Davey. He doesn't seem to have fresh ideas, a fresh perspective.
Visually, he looks likes as grey as an East European dictator, circa 1970s. A bit like Ceausescu.
SKS is the UK equivalent of Francois Hollande or Bill Shorten or a less charismatic Joe Biden
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
Blair was to all extents and purposes a Tory by the time he came to power. He occupied the Wet Tory space that Thatcher foolishly abandoned,
After Thatcher and Boris and Cameron, Blair is arguably our most rightwing postwar PM, certainly on economic grounds
What!? 😲
Preposterous. Absolutely preposterous to suggest that Blair with Brown as Chancellor was more rightwing than Major with Clarke.
From 1997 to 2001 Blair spent less than the final years of the Major government and kept the top income tax rate the same
Which in part is why I voted for him in 2001.
Blair was not simply in power until 2001 though was he? Why ignore 2001+? 🙄
Even including the full Blair years from 1997 to 2001 the top rate of income tax under Blair was lower than under any postwar UK PMs bar Thatcher and Major and as I said he also spent less than Major in his early years in power.
Although a social liberal in purely economic terms Blair was arguably our most Thatcherite PM since WW2 after Thatcher herself, Thatcher even famously said 'Tony will not let us down.' He was also closely tied to the US and had a close relationship with a Republican President as she did
Early years is a legacy of what he inherited from Major, not what he chose to do himself. 🤦🏻♂️
All you've demonstrated is he inherited a sound right wing economy from Major whom you then reckon for some bizarre reason that Blair was to the right of?
If Blair was to the right of Major then did you vote Blair in 1997?
What an insane suggestion.
On social issues and the Union and the minimum wage Major was to the right of Blair however Blair spent less than Major in his early years that is undeniable while keeping the tax rate the same
Interesting...just got CostCo email, in light of mutant covid, you must wear a mask, full stop, no ifs, no buts, no medical exemption, if you want to shop there.
On vaccination, I don't wish to be a killjoy, but wouldn't it be best to wait six months (or even a year) before boasting about the UK's performance? By then, we should know whether our rate of vaccination is world-beating, average or poor. In other words, it's too soon to judge right now.
It reminds me of back in May when many people were rushing to judgements about comparative death rates between countries when, as we now know, it was far too early to tell.
I think plenty of concern over delivery...but on procurement, credit where credit is due, the UK government have done well on the vaccine front.
This Country can test 500,000+ per day. The delivery of the vaccine is much simpler, Its just a jab. 2 million a day will not be a problem
I am no expert on logistics but vaccinating 2 million a day would see the whole UK vaccinated in a month
That is not anything near possible
Why not?
My wife is a nurse she can easily inject 500 people a day, just multiply it up, they have already recruited loads of retired nurses to do it, plus the armed forces, plus pharmacists. The Oxford jab is so easy to administer.
For the the flu jab - which is the easiest of jabs to administer and is done every year - the minimum time allotted for each patient at the surgery is 2 minutes. And this is if they are healthy and have no recorded medical issues. This is because the patient has to come in, run through a checklist to ensure they are safe to receive the jab and then get out again before the next person comes in so they don't mix with them.
500 jabs a day at 2 minutes a jab is 16 hours and 40 minutes. Without a break.
And that is for patients who are healthy. If they are not healthy then it takes longer as they have to be observed after the jab.
For the Covid jabs the instructions are that all patients are supposed to be observed for 15 minutes after injection, during which time they have to remain isolated from other patients. And prior to the injection the questionnaire on medical history and current health is much longer. You also have to have somewhere for all these people to sit or stand during this time whilst maintaining social distancing.
The idea that a single surgery can do 500 Covid jabs a day - even before you take into account all the non covid patients - is for the fairies. They have neither the staff nor the room.
My surgery in Barnes, Essex House, is a hub for the area. It did 2,000 vaccinations over three days. My son-in-law's mother was one of them. She is in her eighties.
As I keep saying we can test 500000+ per day. Vaccinating is so much easier.
Somewhat an apples and oranges comparison though. We can post a test to someone's home with an Amazon/Royal Mail driver and get it picked up with them too.
Can't be done with an injection.
My wife is currently doing 200+ Pfizer vaccines a day herself. It really is easy.
You said previously she could easily do 500. 200 I can believe at a stretch. Certainly not 500 under the current restrictions that have been imposed regarding patient history and post jab waiting.
The person doing the jabbing probably won't be the one monitoring the waiting though.
When my wife got hers last week she said it was extremely well organised, she got the jab, went to a distanced post-vaccination waiting area and there was one person observing the waiting area with a clipboard and a watch telling people when they could leave.
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
You would have thought people on the left could realise that this is not a naturally left wing country, not even centre left. Counting is the first rule of politics and the most forgotten. Especially having lost Scotland, the choice for the left is an updated form of Blairite politics or Tory govts.
For our GE24, probably yes, but longer term I'm optimistic for the Left.
The top 5 global priorities -
Climate change. The emancipation of women. Racial equality. Sustainable growth. Fairer distribution of wealth.
These are all better tackled from a Left perspective imo. Indeed some of them can only be tackled from there.
Sure, they are priorities, and the left have some of the answers, as does the right. But if the left dont learn to count, the only solutions that will be tried here will be those of the right. UK politics is not an even battle of ideas, it is uphill and difficult for the left to win, especially to win and hold on to significant power. It is no surprise only Blair has done this for them.
I sort of agree with you but my sense is that Labour can win from the Left given the right leader and messaging and policies. The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash.
I do agree, and Jacinda Adern is a template of how to do this. Is SKS the UK equivalent of Jacinda?
I have to say on the performance so far ... pretty darn unlikely.
For example, on Scotland, appointing El Gordo to examine constitutional matters looks like a backwards glance to the past. Gordon had his chance to change things. This doesn't even look like a serious attempt to re-imagine the UK with fresh eyes.
The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash
SKS is not a 70s rehash, but he does look like a noughties rehash.
He is way too old to do a Jacinda or a Tony. He is even older than Boris and Ed Davey. He doesn't seem to have fresh ideas, a fresh perspective.
Visually, he looks likes as grey as an East European dictator, circa 1970s. A bit like Ceausescu.
SKS is the UK equivalent of Francois Hollande or Bill Shorten or a less charismatic Joe Biden
I don't expect to find out that Starmer has riding around on a moped to see his mistress...
OLD 14 day self quarantine OR Test on arrival plus test on Day 13
NEW - effective immediately, including those already arrived/in quarantine. 21 day self quarantine OR Test on arrival plus test on Day 13
Of the 20 cases they have caught from travel 17 were either on arrival or became symptomatic during quarantine - 3 were asymptomatic on the Day 13 test - so the extension to 21 days for quarantine for those who don’t want to test on day 13 should catch any of those.
Currently Guernsey has 4 cases - Jersey over 1,000.
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
Blair was to all extents and purposes a Tory by the time he came to power. He occupied the Wet Tory space that Thatcher foolishly abandoned,
After Thatcher and Boris and Cameron, Blair is arguably our most rightwing postwar PM, certainly on economic grounds
What!? 😲
Preposterous. Absolutely preposterous to suggest that Blair with Brown as Chancellor was more rightwing than Major with Clarke.
From 1997 to 2001 Blair spent less than the final years of the Major government and kept the top income tax rate the same
Which in part is why I voted for him in 2001.
Blair was not simply in power until 2001 though was he? Why ignore 2001+? 🙄
Even including the full Blair years from 1997 to 2001 the top rate of income tax under Blair was lower than under any postwar UK PMs bar Thatcher and Major and as I said he also spent less than Major in his early years in power.
Although a social liberal in purely economic terms Blair was arguably our most Thatcherite PM since WW2 after Thatcher herself, Thatcher even famously said 'Tony will not let us down.' He was also closely tied to the US and had a close relationship with a Republican President as she did
Early years is a legacy of what he inherited from Major, not what he chose to do himself. 🤦🏻♂️
All you've demonstrated is he inherited a sound right wing economy from Major whom you then reckon for some bizarre reason that Blair was to the right of?
If Blair was to the right of Major then did you vote Blair in 1997?
What an insane suggestion.
On social issues and the Union and the minimum wage Major was to the right of Blair however Blair spent less than Major in his early years that is undeniable while keeping the tax rate the same
It doesn't matter what he did in the early years, you need to judge over the term of office. Are you that pigheaded you want to judge him on what he inherited not what he left behind?
Anyone who supported Swedish model want to do the honourable thing and admit they got it wrong?
Depends what you mean by the Swedish model....long term consistent set of restrictions, rather than chopping and changing every other week? Or the fact in Sweden those restrictions were strong enough?
I am very much believer in the former. Still am. I think we should have had a set of rules from when we let lockdown #1 and stuck to them, rather than this gyms this week, but not next, no golf in 3 days time, but shooting ok in a 3 weeks.
Anyone who supported Swedish model want to do the honourable thing and admit they got it wrong?
Depends what you mean by the Swedish model....long term consistent set of restrictions, rather than chopping and changing every other week? Or the fact in Sweden those restrictions were strong enough?
I am very much believer in the former.
Either?
I haven't seen a single large nation succeed via long term consistent restrictions.
Being nimble and agile in reacting to what is happening is a key to success. Not being stuck and ignoring what is going on.
It will take a couple of weeks to find out how effective the vaccine is on the new variant, though likely to be so. Though it sounds as if the vaccine can be redone fairly quickly.
Anyone who supported Swedish model want to do the honourable thing and admit they got it wrong?
Depends what you mean by the Swedish model....long term consistent set of restrictions, rather than chopping and changing every other week? Or the fact in Sweden those restrictions were strong enough?
I am very much believer in the former.
Either?
I haven't seen a single large nation succeed via long term consistent restrictions.
Being nimble and agile in reacting to what is happening is a key to success. Not being stuck and ignoring what is going on.
I think there should have been a base nationwide level of restrictions, come rain or shine. We have lurched from too relaxed to too slow to impose harsher ones, to opening up gyms in one place and not another, etc.
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
You would have thought people on the left could realise that this is not a naturally left wing country, not even centre left. Counting is the first rule of politics and the most forgotten. Especially having lost Scotland, the choice for the left is an updated form of Blairite politics or Tory govts.
For our GE24, probably yes, but longer term I'm optimistic for the Left.
The top 5 global priorities -
Climate change. The emancipation of women. Racial equality. Sustainable growth. Fairer distribution of wealth.
These are all better tackled from a Left perspective imo. Indeed some of them can only be tackled from there.
Sure, they are priorities, and the left have some of the answers, as does the right. But if the left dont learn to count, the only solutions that will be tried here will be those of the right. UK politics is not an even battle of ideas, it is uphill and difficult for the left to win, especially to win and hold on to significant power. It is no surprise only Blair has done this for them.
I sort of agree with you but my sense is that Labour can win from the Left given the right leader and messaging and policies. The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash.
I don't think they can. Mind you I am not sure Labour can win at all. Johnson can preside over absolute and total chaos, yet he still retains the support of 40% of the voting public.
Anyone who supported Swedish model want to do the honourable thing and admit they got it wrong?
Depends what you mean by the Swedish model....long term consistent set of restrictions, rather than chopping and changing every other week? Or the fact in Sweden those restrictions were strong enough?
I am very much believer in the former. Still am. I think we should have had a set of rules from when we let lockdown #1 and stuck to them, rather than this gyms this week, but not next, no golf in 3 days time, but shooting ok in a 3 weeks.
The idea we should just let the virus rip through the population and never lock down.
Having consistent restrictions isn't the Swedish model, loads of countries have done that.
Interesting snippet on vaccination effectiveness - working assumption is that you can use 80% of the Modena vaccine supplied - in practice they got 99% out of the first batch.
Anyone who supported Swedish model want to do the honourable thing and admit they got it wrong?
Depends what you mean by the Swedish model....long term consistent set of restrictions, rather than chopping and changing every other week? Or the fact in Sweden those restrictions were strong enough?
I am very much believer in the former.
Either?
I haven't seen a single large nation succeed via long term consistent restrictions.
Being nimble and agile in reacting to what is happening is a key to success. Not being stuck and ignoring what is going on.
I think there should have been a base nationwide level of restrictions, come rain or shine.
Has any nation anywhere in the western world done that and stuck with it successfully both when cases were very low and very high?
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
You would have thought people on the left could realise that this is not a naturally left wing country, not even centre left. Counting is the first rule of politics and the most forgotten. Especially having lost Scotland, the choice for the left is an updated form of Blairite politics or Tory govts.
For our GE24, probably yes, but longer term I'm optimistic for the Left.
The top 5 global priorities -
Climate change. The emancipation of women. Racial equality. Sustainable growth. Fairer distribution of wealth.
These are all better tackled from a Left perspective imo. Indeed some of them can only be tackled from there.
Sure, they are priorities, and the left have some of the answers, as does the right. But if the left dont learn to count, the only solutions that will be tried here will be those of the right. UK politics is not an even battle of ideas, it is uphill and difficult for the left to win, especially to win and hold on to significant power. It is no surprise only Blair has done this for them.
I sort of agree with you but my sense is that Labour can win from the Left given the right leader and messaging and policies. The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash.
I do agree, and Jacinda Adern is a template of how to do this. Is SKS the UK equivalent of Jacinda?
I have to say on the performance so far ... pretty darn unlikely.
For example, on Scotland, appointing El Gordo to examine constitutional matters looks like a backwards glance to the past. Gordon had his chance to change things. This doesn't even look like a serious attempt to re-imagine the UK with fresh eyes.
The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash
SKS is not a 70s rehash, but he does look like a noughties rehash.
He is way too old to do a Jacinda or a Tony. He is even older than Boris and Ed Davey. He doesn't seem to have fresh ideas, a fresh perspective.
Visually, he looks likes as grey as an East European dictator, circa 1970s. A bit like Ceausescu.
SKS is the UK equivalent of Francois Hollande or Bill Shorten or a less charismatic Joe Biden
I don't expect to find out that Starmer has riding around on a moped to see his mistress...
That was literally the only thing I could recall of Hollande, too.
Frost has pushed our (Definitely not a pair of aces) hand to the absolute limit with regards to an EU deal. If it pays off, then I'll have to say well done. If we fail to reach a deal then it'll be all for naught.
Fingers crossed.
Bad take, Pulp. The Deal is certain and it will be pretty much as could have been agreed ages ago. The "pay off" for the "to the wire" theatrics and the No Deal hyping will not be the Deal itself, it will be that many people's response will be what you indicate yours will be. A great big "phew" and "well done Boris". That is the game here.
Several things can be true at once.
1. There will be a deal, because the Johnson and Gove haven't really prepared for No Deal. 2. The big picture of that deal will be one outlined by Barnier back in... 2017? No tarrifs/no quotas/lots of paperwork/some fish/more alignment than Canada. 3. Frostie has probably done as well as can be done. Some of the wins are the striking out of the obviously outrageous things in the initial EU plan. (Everyone who does serious negotiation starts out absurd, don't they? It's part of the game, which is why I try to avoid it.) But there does seem to have been a genuine move, even if the UK has moved more. That's OK. 4. Looking at the gains (real control of immigration, the ability to do trade deals with remote nations, sense of national vim, however much it actually is a week) and losses (border faff hurting trade, a loss of input into EU deliberations), the gains look small but visible, the losses look less visible but potentially larger. That came from BoJo's choice; we can only see what happens. 5. It's quite possible that the cost of all this faffing around over the last six months (because everyone knows that the first few months of our Brave New Future will be a mess, because nobody has been able to plan) will exceed the value of the gains by comparing what we settle for now with what we could have settled for in the summer. 6. The gap between the actual deal done and what some in the media and ERG have been expecting will be interesting to watch over the years to come.
1. I don't think No Deal could have been prepared for. It's a mirage. 2. Yep. We get end of FOM and more Fish. They protect their SM. That's the deal. 3. No complaints from me about Frost. He's done the job he was asked to do. 4. Agreed. The gains look less tangible than the costs. 5. Any marginal gains from going to the wire will not justify the fear and chaos caused. 6, Yes. I'm looking forward to how Johnson sells the deal to Redwood & Co.
In the short term, it's pretty clear that the selling approach will be the same one used by Dodgy Timeshare Salesman. Trap them in a room and give them no time to read or think. So the Deal can't be finalised until December 29, and then voted on December 30 and 31. (I seriously wonder if that's what's holding things up now.)
It's a terrible idea by most standards, but it's probably Johnson's best bet. And if Redwood and co don't like it, what are they going to do?
Hopefully here's where Johnson gets the value of his landslide majority. Quite right too. What's the point of it otherwise.
And, yes, a good point you make about the timing. A deal announced months ago would have allowed for a lot of critical scrutiny. Johnson would not have welcomed this. It's not how he rolls.
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
You would have thought people on the left could realise that this is not a naturally left wing country, not even centre left. Counting is the first rule of politics and the most forgotten. Especially having lost Scotland, the choice for the left is an updated form of Blairite politics or Tory govts.
For our GE24, probably yes, but longer term I'm optimistic for the Left.
The top 5 global priorities -
Climate change. The emancipation of women. Racial equality. Sustainable growth. Fairer distribution of wealth.
These are all better tackled from a Left perspective imo. Indeed some of them can only be tackled from there.
Sure, they are priorities, and the left have some of the answers, as does the right. But if the left dont learn to count, the only solutions that will be tried here will be those of the right. UK politics is not an even battle of ideas, it is uphill and difficult for the left to win, especially to win and hold on to significant power. It is no surprise only Blair has done this for them.
I sort of agree with you but my sense is that Labour can win from the Left given the right leader and messaging and policies. The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash.
I do agree, and Jacinda Adern is a template of how to do this. Is SKS the UK equivalent of Jacinda?
I have to say on the performance so far ... pretty darn unlikely.
For example, on Scotland, appointing El Gordo to examine constitutional matters looks like a backwards glance to the past. Gordon had his chance to change things. This doesn't even look like a serious attempt to re-imagine the UK with fresh eyes.
The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash
SKS is not a 70s rehash, but he does look like a noughties rehash.
He is way too old to do a Jacinda or a Tony. He is even older than Boris and Ed Davey. He doesn't seem to have fresh ideas, a fresh perspective.
Visually, he looks likes as grey as an East European dictator, circa 1970s. A bit like Ceausescu.
SKS is the UK equivalent of Francois Hollande or Bill Shorten or a less charismatic Joe Biden
I don't expect to find out that Starmer has riding around on a moped to see his mistress...
That was literally the only thing I could recall of Hollande, too.
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
They'd be better off with Burnham or Dan Jarvis, but they've both opted out, due to the binfire of the Corbyn era.
My only hope for SKS is that he is a Neil Kinnock figure i.e. gets rid of the idiots and steers them back to a place of viability in England. They're all over in Scotland, but they haven't faced up to that yet.
In Johnson the nation has the Prime Minister it desires and deserves.
Johnson is going nowhere. Even after the economic fallout from bad deal Bexit and Covid, the Conservatives will retain handsome majorities for another decade.
I thought they would be out by 2024, but one can feel the love for the man on the pages of PB and also in the council estates of Britain. He can do no wrong for 40% of the population. Equally, the continued disdain for post-Corbyn Labour remains palpable.
I disagree - to an extent. The polling seems to indicate that now people have clocked Corbyn has gone Labour has essentially reassembled its 2017 voting coalition. I do not envisage the polls moving much beyond an MoE difference between the parties for the foreseeable future. There may be around 40% of the population that believes the Tories represent their values, but there is a similar number that believes the complete opposite. Unless the Labour leader is a complete turn-off, like the last one but unlike the current one, it will all come down to differential turnouts and similar at the next election, which is almost certainly going to be much, much closer than the last one. Because of the boundary review and the in-built advantage they now have from FPTP, I would expect the Tories to win most seats, but that does not mean they will end up forming the government.
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
You would have thought people on the left could realise that this is not a naturally left wing country, not even centre left. Counting is the first rule of politics and the most forgotten. Especially having lost Scotland, the choice for the left is an updated form of Blairite politics or Tory govts.
For our GE24, probably yes, but longer term I'm optimistic for the Left.
The top 5 global priorities -
Climate change. The emancipation of women. Racial equality. Sustainable growth. Fairer distribution of wealth.
These are all better tackled from a Left perspective imo. Indeed some of them can only be tackled from there.
The problem is people have been saying similar things ever since the time of the French Revolution.
And always they have ultimately been disappointed.
Worse, very often it was their own governments that disappointed them. The Soviet and Chinese governments stand as examples of governments who came to power promising similar things to those on your list - but ultimately ended up achieving more or less the opposite.
And indeed much progress has been made. I'm not envisaging a comeback for totalitarian communism btw, I'm saying that imo the future should and will see the dominant form of government being left of centre (as we now think of it) and both activist and progressive on the issues I listed.
Every year, humanity takes a step towards Commnusm. Maybe not you, but at all events, your grandson will certainly be a communist.
Who said that and to whom, and why is it very ironic?
It will take a couple of weeks to find out how effective the vaccine is on the new variant, though likely to be so. Though it sounds as if the vaccine can be redone fairly quickly.
Given the RNA technology I'm surprised it is as 'long' as 6 weeks to be honest. Does that include testing for efficacy?
Large scale testing might be a problem though. How do new 'flu vaccines get tested? Is detailed testing not required because it is just a slight rehash of an earlier one?
Frost has pushed our (Definitely not a pair of aces) hand to the absolute limit with regards to an EU deal. If it pays off, then I'll have to say well done. If we fail to reach a deal then it'll be all for naught.
Fingers crossed.
Bad take, Pulp. The Deal is certain and it will be pretty much as could have been agreed ages ago. The "pay off" for the "to the wire" theatrics and the No Deal hyping will not be the Deal itself, it will be that many people's response will be what you indicate yours will be. A great big "phew" and "well done Boris". That is the game here.
Several things can be true at once.
1. There will be a deal, because the Johnson and Gove haven't really prepared for No Deal. 2. The big picture of that deal will be one outlined by Barnier back in... 2017? No tarrifs/no quotas/lots of paperwork/some fish/more alignment than Canada. 3. Frostie has probably done as well as can be done. Some of the wins are the striking out of the obviously outrageous things in the initial EU plan. (Everyone who does serious negotiation starts out absurd, don't they? It's part of the game, which is why I try to avoid it.) But there does seem to have been a genuine move, even if the UK has moved more. That's OK. 4. Looking at the gains (real control of immigration, the ability to do trade deals with remote nations, sense of national vim, however much it actually is a week) and losses (border faff hurting trade, a loss of input into EU deliberations), the gains look small but visible, the losses look less visible but potentially larger. That came from BoJo's choice; we can only see what happens. 5. It's quite possible that the cost of all this faffing around over the last six months (because everyone knows that the first few months of our Brave New Future will be a mess, because nobody has been able to plan) will exceed the value of the gains by comparing what we settle for now with what we could have settled for in the summer. 6. The gap between the actual deal done and what some in the media and ERG have been expecting will be interesting to watch over the years to come.
1. I don't think No Deal could have been prepared for. It's a mirage. 2. Yep. We get end of FOM and more Fish. They protect their SM. That's the deal. 3. No complaints from me about Frost. He's done the job he was asked to do. 4. Agreed. The gains look less tangible than the costs. 5. Any marginal gains from going to the wire will not justify the fear and chaos caused. 6, Yes. I'm looking forward to how Johnson sells the deal to Redwood & Co.
In the short term, it's pretty clear that the selling approach will be the same one used by Dodgy Timeshare Salesman. Trap them in a room and give them no time to read or think. So the Deal can't be finalised until December 29, and then voted on December 30 and 31. (I seriously wonder if that's what's holding things up now.)
It's a terrible idea by most standards, but it's probably Johnson's best bet. And if Redwood and co don't like it, what are they going to do?
Hopefully here's where Johnson gets the value of his landslide majority. Quite right too. What's the point of it otherwise.
And, yes, a good point you make about the timing. A deal announced months ago would have allowed for a lot of critical scrutiny. Johnson would not have welcomed this. It's not how he rolls.
Trump does not welcome having to hand over the president, it's not how he rolls. Both are terrible models for being leader.
Transition period of several years seems sensible.
We can do what Nelson did when he used the French Navy as his main supplier of new ships.
Enforce properly, confiscate and sell off French trawlers to pay their fines when they break the regs, which can then become part of the increase in the UK fleet.
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
You would have thought people on the left could realise that this is not a naturally left wing country, not even centre left. Counting is the first rule of politics and the most forgotten. Especially having lost Scotland, the choice for the left is an updated form of Blairite politics or Tory govts.
For our GE24, probably yes, but longer term I'm optimistic for the Left.
The top 5 global priorities -
Climate change. The emancipation of women. Racial equality. Sustainable growth. Fairer distribution of wealth.
These are all better tackled from a Left perspective imo. Indeed some of them can only be tackled from there.
Sure, they are priorities, and the left have some of the answers, as does the right. But if the left dont learn to count, the only solutions that will be tried here will be those of the right. UK politics is not an even battle of ideas, it is uphill and difficult for the left to win, especially to win and hold on to significant power. It is no surprise only Blair has done this for them.
I sort of agree with you but my sense is that Labour can win from the Left given the right leader and messaging and policies. The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash.
I do agree, and Jacinda Adern is a template of how to do this. Is SKS the UK equivalent of Jacinda?
I have to say on the performance so far ... pretty darn unlikely.
For example, on Scotland, appointing El Gordo to examine constitutional matters looks like a backwards glance to the past. Gordon had his chance to change things. This doesn't even look like a serious attempt to re-imagine the UK with fresh eyes.
The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash
SKS is not a 70s rehash, but he does look like a noughties rehash.
He is way too old to do a Jacinda or a Tony. He is even older than Boris and Ed Davey. He doesn't seem to have fresh ideas, a fresh perspective.
Visually, he looks likes as grey as an East European dictator, circa 1970s. A bit like Ceausescu.
SKS is the UK equivalent of Francois Hollande or Bill Shorten or a less charismatic Joe Biden
I don't expect to find out that Starmer has riding around on a moped to see his mistress...
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
You would have thought people on the left could realise that this is not a naturally left wing country, not even centre left. Counting is the first rule of politics and the most forgotten. Especially having lost Scotland, the choice for the left is an updated form of Blairite politics or Tory govts.
For our GE24, probably yes, but longer term I'm optimistic for the Left.
The top 5 global priorities -
Climate change. The emancipation of women. Racial equality. Sustainable growth. Fairer distribution of wealth.
These are all better tackled from a Left perspective imo. Indeed some of them can only be tackled from there.
Sure, they are priorities, and the left have some of the answers, as does the right. But if the left dont learn to count, the only solutions that will be tried here will be those of the right. UK politics is not an even battle of ideas, it is uphill and difficult for the left to win, especially to win and hold on to significant power. It is no surprise only Blair has done this for them.
I sort of agree with you but my sense is that Labour can win from the Left given the right leader and messaging and policies. The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash.
SKS is just too boring to win, and that comes from someone who likes boring politicians and used to be in the party. He can make the party electable, but not elected.
I am with @Dura_Ace. Rayner is the one who could win. She has the necessary passion, and can appeal to both the Red Wall and the Corbynites.
I like her but does she have the intellectual clout, do you think?
I'm not getting distracted by the "WC" sound of her - that's great - but I mean the substance. Like, Corbyn imo was lacking in this area. Is Rayner a lot brighter than him?
Whatever the arrangement, Farage is going to call it a betrayal, so they may as well make it a real betrayal. With a real betrayal, we might get something in return.
The Commission has no power to instruct France to open its borders. France is a sovereign country and will decide for itself.
To the extent that the closure of a border has an impact on cross-border trade, it is undoubtedly an EU competence, being a measure equivalent to a quantitive restriction on intra-Union trade. However I do not believe that is a Commission competence.
Reviving this from the old thread as I'm interested in where the UK figure was sourced from. The article doesn't quote a UK figure for the Moderna vaccine anywhere.
The UK is paying $37 per dose of the Moderna vaccine. The EU is paying $18 per dose. Both buyers ordered 40m doses. The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
Hi Malcom. Where are you getting the Uk figure from?
I can't find a reliable estimate since the summer (and we hadn't ordered 40m then).
Looking at the article the person who commented on it must have either assumed or knew UK paid list price, article shows list at $37.
The EU didn't pay the list price, so why the assumption the UK did?
Rob, That I don't know, they either knew something from elsewhere or just wanted to make it look bad for UK. Probably the latter but given volumes and when ordered it is likely UK paid more but whether list or not I don't know.
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
They'd be better off with Burnham or Dan Jarvis, but they've both opted out, due to the binfire of the Corbyn era.
My only hope for SKS is that he is a Neil Kinnock figure i.e. gets rid of the idiots and steers them back to a place of viability in England. They're all over in Scotland, but they haven't faced up to that yet.
In Johnson the nation has the Prime Minister it desires and deserves.
Johnson is going nowhere. Even after the economic fallout from bad deal Bexit and Covid, the Conservatives will retain handsome majorities for another decade.
I thought they would be out by 2024, but one can feel the love for the man on the pages of PB and also in the council estates of Britain. He can do no wrong for 40% of the population. Equally, the continued disdain for post-Corbyn Labour remains palpable.
I disagree - to an extent. The polling seems to indicate that now people have clocked Corbyn has gone Labour has essentially reassembled its 2017 voting coalition. I do not envisage the polls moving much beyond an MoE difference between the parties for the foreseeable future. There may be around 40% of the population that believes the Tories represent their values, but there is a similar number that believes the complete opposite. Unless the Labour leader is a complete turn-off, like the last one but unlike the current one, it will all come down to differential turnouts and similar at the next election, which is almost certainly going to be much, much closer than the last one. Because of the boundary review and the in-built advantage they now have from FPTP, I would expect the Tories to win most seats, but that does not mean they will end up forming the government.
On HYUFD'S extrapolation of seats from equal polling at 37% apiece (last weekend) the Conservatives with the new "fairer" boundaries will be tantalising close on a uniform basis, to a majority.
I am concluding there is no appetite for anyone other than a music hall comedian to be Prime Minister.
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
You would have thought people on the left could realise that this is not a naturally left wing country, not even centre left. Counting is the first rule of politics and the most forgotten. Especially having lost Scotland, the choice for the left is an updated form of Blairite politics or Tory govts.
For our GE24, probably yes, but longer term I'm optimistic for the Left.
The top 5 global priorities -
Climate change. The emancipation of women. Racial equality. Sustainable growth. Fairer distribution of wealth.
These are all better tackled from a Left perspective imo. Indeed some of them can only be tackled from there.
The problem is people have been saying similar things ever since the time of the French Revolution.
And always they have ultimately been disappointed.
Worse, very often it was their own governments that disappointed them. The Soviet and Chinese governments stand as examples of governments who came to power promising similar things to those on your list - but ultimately ended up achieving more or less the opposite.
And indeed much progress has been made. I'm not envisaging a comeback for totalitarian communism btw, I'm saying that imo the future should and will see the dominant form of government being left of centre (as we now think of it) and both activist and progressive on the issues I listed.
Every year, humanity takes a step towards Commnusm. Maybe not you, but at all events, your grandson will certainly be a communist.
Who said that and to whom, and why is it very ironic?
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
You would have thought people on the left could realise that this is not a naturally left wing country, not even centre left. Counting is the first rule of politics and the most forgotten. Especially having lost Scotland, the choice for the left is an updated form of Blairite politics or Tory govts.
For our GE24, probably yes, but longer term I'm optimistic for the Left.
The top 5 global priorities -
Climate change. The emancipation of women. Racial equality. Sustainable growth. Fairer distribution of wealth.
These are all better tackled from a Left perspective imo. Indeed some of them can only be tackled from there.
Sure, they are priorities, and the left have some of the answers, as does the right. But if the left dont learn to count, the only solutions that will be tried here will be those of the right. UK politics is not an even battle of ideas, it is uphill and difficult for the left to win, especially to win and hold on to significant power. It is no surprise only Blair has done this for them.
I sort of agree with you but my sense is that Labour can win from the Left given the right leader and messaging and policies. The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash.
I don't think they can. Mind you I am not sure Labour can win at all. Johnson can preside over absolute and total chaos, yet he still retains the support of 40% of the voting public.
On present polling the Tories will win most seats but Starmer will become PM thanks to SNP and LD support.
Starmer would be the first PM not to win most seats at a general election since Macdonald in 1923
Whatever the arrangement, Farage is going to call it a betrayal, so they may as well make it a real betrayal. With a real betrayal, we might get something in return.
Sounds good. How about reciprocal freedom of movement. It works for me.
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
You would have thought people on the left could realise that this is not a naturally left wing country, not even centre left. Counting is the first rule of politics and the most forgotten. Especially having lost Scotland, the choice for the left is an updated form of Blairite politics or Tory govts.
For our GE24, probably yes, but longer term I'm optimistic for the Left.
The top 5 global priorities -
Climate change. The emancipation of women. Racial equality. Sustainable growth. Fairer distribution of wealth.
These are all better tackled from a Left perspective imo. Indeed some of them can only be tackled from there.
Sure, they are priorities, and the left have some of the answers, as does the right. But if the left dont learn to count, the only solutions that will be tried here will be those of the right. UK politics is not an even battle of ideas, it is uphill and difficult for the left to win, especially to win and hold on to significant power. It is no surprise only Blair has done this for them.
I sort of agree with you but my sense is that Labour can win from the Left given the right leader and messaging and policies. The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash.
SKS is just too boring to win, and that comes from someone who likes boring politicians and used to be in the party. He can make the party electable, but not elected.
I am with @Dura_Ace. Rayner is the one who could win. She has the necessary passion, and can appeal to both the Red Wall and the Corbynites.
I like her but does she have the intellectual clout, do you think?
I'm not getting distracted by the "WC" sound of her - that's great - but I mean the substance. Like, Corbyn imo was lacking in this area. Is Rayner a lot brighter than him?
Intellectual clout is one of a range of skills a PM needs. It falls in the "desirable" not "essential" column on the person specs.
If I was in charge of the Labour Party (either in Wales or Scotland or England), I would simply ban all males from entering future leadership contests.
OK, there have been female leaders of the Scottish Labour Party, but it is just plain embarrassing for the English and Wales parties never to have had a female leader. It looks like what it is -- systematic gender bias. It just make Labour look like a bunch of hypocrites, lecturing everyone else while their own party is a bastion of grey males.
I would encourage bumbling Mark Drakeford to take up a very dangerous sport like sky-diving without a parachute before the 2021 Senedd elections, and only permit female AMs to enter the resulting leadership election -- victory for Eluned Morgan ?
I would then let the incompetent Richard Leonard fall down an open pit mind, and allow only females to enter the resulting leadership election -- victory for Jenny Marra ?
I would let grey old SKS do the hard graft for a few more years, and then force him to fall on his sword in 2023 -- Lisa Nandy wins the resulting all-female leadership election.
Now that looks like a Jacinda party --- Nandy, Marra & Morgan. That looks a combo that could win really big.
Remember Jacinda Ardern only got a crack at the leadership because the existing NZ Labour leader Andrew Little voluntarily fell on his sword
The apparent higher viral loads from the new strain could simply be an artefact of testing more people earlier on in their infections, which you would expect if the number of infections is rapidly increasing.
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
You would have thought people on the left could realise that this is not a naturally left wing country, not even centre left. Counting is the first rule of politics and the most forgotten. Especially having lost Scotland, the choice for the left is an updated form of Blairite politics or Tory govts.
For our GE24, probably yes, but longer term I'm optimistic for the Left.
The top 5 global priorities -
Climate change. The emancipation of women. Racial equality. Sustainable growth. Fairer distribution of wealth.
These are all better tackled from a Left perspective imo. Indeed some of them can only be tackled from there.
Sure, they are priorities, and the left have some of the answers, as does the right. But if the left dont learn to count, the only solutions that will be tried here will be those of the right. UK politics is not an even battle of ideas, it is uphill and difficult for the left to win, especially to win and hold on to significant power. It is no surprise only Blair has done this for them.
I sort of agree with you but my sense is that Labour can win from the Left given the right leader and messaging and policies. The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash.
SKS is just too boring to win, and that comes from someone who likes boring politicians and used to be in the party. He can make the party electable, but not elected.
I am with @Dura_Ace. Rayner is the one who could win. She has the necessary passion, and can appeal to both the Red Wall and the Corbynites.
I like her but does she have the intellectual clout, do you think?
I'm not getting distracted by the "WC" sound of her - that's great - but I mean the substance. Like, Corbyn imo was lacking in this area. Is Rayner a lot brighter than him?
Yes, it is a frequent error to mistake a lack of formal education for lack of intelligence. I think intelligence is probably overestimated in its importance, relative to values and instincts. Rayner is strong on these. I like her, and her drive for self improvement, without forgetting where she came from shows great strength of character.
Reviving this from the old thread as I'm interested in where the UK figure was sourced from. The article doesn't quote a UK figure for the Moderna vaccine anywhere.
The UK is paying $37 per dose of the Moderna vaccine. The EU is paying $18 per dose. Both buyers ordered 40m doses. The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
Hi Malcom. Where are you getting the Uk figure from?
I can't find a reliable estimate since the summer (and we hadn't ordered 40m then).
Looking at the article the person who commented on it must have either assumed or knew UK paid list price, article shows list at $37.
The EU didn't pay the list price, so why the assumption the UK did?
Rob, That I don't know, they either knew something from elsewhere or just wanted to make it look bad for UK. Probably the latter but given volumes and when ordered it is likely UK paid more but whether list or not I don't know.
I don't see that. They are just quoting the list price, they don't say anything about what the UK paid for it.
Actually I think she's like the female John Prescott
I was thinking that Jess Phillips might be more likely lamp someone Prescott-style, having seen how she stood up to those anti-gay-lessons Muslim protestors outside the school. Then I looked her up and saw that she's now Shadow Minister for Domestic Violence, so maybe not!
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
You would have thought people on the left could realise that this is not a naturally left wing country, not even centre left. Counting is the first rule of politics and the most forgotten. Especially having lost Scotland, the choice for the left is an updated form of Blairite politics or Tory govts.
For our GE24, probably yes, but longer term I'm optimistic for the Left.
The top 5 global priorities -
Climate change. The emancipation of women. Racial equality. Sustainable growth. Fairer distribution of wealth.
These are all better tackled from a Left perspective imo. Indeed some of them can only be tackled from there.
Sure, they are priorities, and the left have some of the answers, as does the right. But if the left dont learn to count, the only solutions that will be tried here will be those of the right. UK politics is not an even battle of ideas, it is uphill and difficult for the left to win, especially to win and hold on to significant power. It is no surprise only Blair has done this for them.
I sort of agree with you but my sense is that Labour can win from the Left given the right leader and messaging and policies. The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash.
SKS is just too boring to win, and that comes from someone who likes boring politicians and used to be in the party. He can make the party electable, but not elected.
I am with @Dura_Ace. Rayner is the one who could win. She has the necessary passion, and can appeal to both the Red Wall and the Corbynites.
I like her but does she have the intellectual clout, do you think?
I'm not getting distracted by the "WC" sound of her - that's great - but I mean the substance. Like, Corbyn imo was lacking in this area. Is Rayner a lot brighter than him?
No, they are both mince. Rayner as potential PM?? I`m sure the Tories would be delighted. Starmer is a nightmare for the Tories - I don`t know why some are dissing him.
Reviving this from the old thread as I'm interested in where the UK figure was sourced from. The article doesn't quote a UK figure for the Moderna vaccine anywhere.
The UK is paying $37 per dose of the Moderna vaccine. The EU is paying $18 per dose. Both buyers ordered 40m doses. The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
Hi Malcom. Where are you getting the Uk figure from?
I can't find a reliable estimate since the summer (and we hadn't ordered 40m then).
Looking at the article the person who commented on it must have either assumed or knew UK paid list price, article shows list at $37.
The EU didn't pay the list price, so why the assumption the UK did?
Rob, That I don't know, they either knew something from elsewhere or just wanted to make it look bad for UK. Probably the latter but given volumes and when ordered it is likely UK paid more but whether list or not I don't know.
I don't see that. They are just quoting the list price, they don't say anything about what the UK paid for it.
Presumably Malcolmg always pays list price. He must: he's no true Scot
Whatever the arrangement, Farage is going to call it a betrayal, so they may as well make it a real betrayal. With a real betrayal, we might get something in return.
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
You would have thought people on the left could realise that this is not a naturally left wing country, not even centre left. Counting is the first rule of politics and the most forgotten. Especially having lost Scotland, the choice for the left is an updated form of Blairite politics or Tory govts.
For our GE24, probably yes, but longer term I'm optimistic for the Left.
The top 5 global priorities -
Climate change. The emancipation of women. Racial equality. Sustainable growth. Fairer distribution of wealth.
These are all better tackled from a Left perspective imo. Indeed some of them can only be tackled from there.
Sure, they are priorities, and the left have some of the answers, as does the right. But if the left dont learn to count, the only solutions that will be tried here will be those of the right. UK politics is not an even battle of ideas, it is uphill and difficult for the left to win, especially to win and hold on to significant power. It is no surprise only Blair has done this for them.
I sort of agree with you but my sense is that Labour can win from the Left given the right leader and messaging and policies. The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash.
SKS is just too boring to win, and that comes from someone who likes boring politicians and used to be in the party. He can make the party electable, but not elected.
I am with @Dura_Ace. Rayner is the one who could win. She has the necessary passion, and can appeal to both the Red Wall and the Corbynites.
I like her but does she have the intellectual clout, do you think?
I'm not getting distracted by the "WC" sound of her - that's great - but I mean the substance. Like, Corbyn imo was lacking in this area. Is Rayner a lot brighter than him?
Yes, it is a frequent error to mistake a lack of formal education for lack of intelligence. I think intelligence is probably overestimated in its importance, relative to values and instincts. Rayner is strong on these. I like her, and her drive for self improvement, without forgetting where she came from shows great strength of character.
Over half the country have better education qualifications than Rayner and she did not exactly have any great managerial experience before being elected either beyond being a union representative.
She could be a female Prescott for Starmer but no more than that
If I was in charge of the Labour Party (either in Wales or Scotland or England), I would simply ban all males from entering future leadership contests.
OK, there have been female leaders of the Scottish Labour Party, but it is just plain embarrassing for the English and Wales parties never to have had a female leader. It looks like what it is -- systematic gender bias. It just make Labour look like a bunch of hypocrites, lecturing everyone else while their own party is a bastion of grey males.
I would encourage bumbling Mark Drakeford to take up a very dangerous sport like sky-diving without a parachute before the 2021 Senedd elections, and only permit female AMs to enter the resulting leadership election -- victory for Eluned Morgan ?
I would then let the incompetent Richard Leonard fall down an open pit mind, and allow only females to enter the resulting leadership election -- victory for Jenny Marra ?
I would let grey old SKS do the hard graft for a few more years, and then force him to fall on his sword in 2023 -- Lisa Nandy wins the resulting all-female leadership election.
Now that looks like a Jacinda party --- Nandy, Marra & Morgan. That looks a combo that could win really big.
Remember Jacinda Ardern only got a crack at the leadership because the existing NZ Labour leader Andrew Little voluntarily fell on his sword
Blimey! You've solved all our problems in one post!
Incidentally both Nandy and Rayner are a steal for next PM on current BFX odds at over 300/1. If Starmer does go, it would be one of other of these 2 IMO. Rayner is the more gutsy and won the Deputy Leadership without breaking a sweat.
If I was in charge of the Labour Party (either in Wales or Scotland or England), I would simply ban all males from entering future leadership contests.
OK, there have been female leaders of the Scottish Labour Party, but it is just plain embarrassing for the English and Wales parties never to have had a female leader. It looks like what it is -- systematic gender bias. It just make Labour look like a bunch of hypocrites, lecturing everyone else while their own party is a bastion of grey males.
I would encourage bumbling Mark Drakeford to take up a very dangerous sport like sky-diving without a parachute before the 2021 Senedd elections, and only permit female AMs to enter the resulting leadership election -- victory for Eluned Morgan ?
I would then let the incompetent Richard Leonard fall down an open pit mind, and allow only females to enter the resulting leadership election -- victory for Jenny Marra ?
I would let grey old SKS do the hard graft for a few more years, and then force him to fall on his sword in 2023 -- Lisa Nandy wins the resulting all-female leadership election.
Now that looks like a Jacinda party --- Nandy, Marra & Morgan. That looks a combo that could win really big.
Remember Jacinda Ardern only got a crack at the leadership because the existing NZ Labour leader Andrew Little voluntarily fell on his sword
Ardern did not win the 2017 election, Labour only came second to English's Nationals, she only got in with other parties support as current polls show Starmer would.
If I was in charge of the Labour Party (either in Wales or Scotland or England), I would simply ban all males from entering future leadership contests.
OK, there have been female leaders of the Scottish Labour Party, but it is just plain embarrassing for the English and Wales parties never to have had a female leader. It looks like what it is -- systematic gender bias. It just make Labour look like a bunch of hypocrites, lecturing everyone else while their own party is a bastion of grey males.
I would encourage bumbling Mark Drakeford to take up a very dangerous sport like sky-diving without a parachute before the 2021 Senedd elections, and only permit female AMs to enter the resulting leadership election -- victory for Eluned Morgan ?
I would then let the incompetent Richard Leonard fall down an open pit mind, and allow only females to enter the resulting leadership election -- victory for Jenny Marra ?
I would let grey old SKS do the hard graft for a few more years, and then force him to fall on his sword in 2023 -- Lisa Nandy wins the resulting all-female leadership election.
Now that looks like a Jacinda party --- Nandy, Marra & Morgan. That looks a combo that could win really big.
Remember Jacinda Ardern only got a crack at the leadership because the existing NZ Labour leader Andrew Little voluntarily fell on his sword
In fact I agree with the essence of this. More female leaders, and a greater respect for what are deemed "female" qualities in male leaders, would imo have a bigger positive impact than most single political changes I can think of.
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
They'd be better off with Burnham or Dan Jarvis, but they've both opted out, due to the binfire of the Corbyn era.
My only hope for SKS is that he is a Neil Kinnock figure i.e. gets rid of the idiots and steers them back to a place of viability in England. They're all over in Scotland, but they haven't faced up to that yet.
In Johnson the nation has the Prime Minister it desires and deserves.
Johnson is going nowhere. Even after the economic fallout from bad deal Bexit and Covid, the Conservatives will retain handsome majorities for another decade.
I thought they would be out by 2024, but one can feel the love for the man on the pages of PB and also in the council estates of Britain. He can do no wrong for 40% of the population. Equally, the continued disdain for post-Corbyn Labour remains palpable.
I disagree - to an extent. The polling seems to indicate that now people have clocked Corbyn has gone Labour has essentially reassembled its 2017 voting coalition. I do not envisage the polls moving much beyond an MoE difference between the parties for the foreseeable future. There may be around 40% of the population that believes the Tories represent their values, but there is a similar number that believes the complete opposite. Unless the Labour leader is a complete turn-off, like the last one but unlike the current one, it will all come down to differential turnouts and similar at the next election, which is almost certainly going to be much, much closer than the last one. Because of the boundary review and the in-built advantage they now have from FPTP, I would expect the Tories to win most seats, but that does not mean they will end up forming the government.
On HYUFD'S extrapolation of seats from equal polling at 37% apiece (last weekend) the Conservatives with the new "fairer" boundaries will be tantalising close on a uniform basis, to a majority.
I am concluding there is no appetite for anyone other than a music hall comedian to be Prime Minister.
The Tories would still be short and even on the best scenario need the DUP again who may well prefer a softer Brexit under Starmer with closer alignment to the EU to reduce any border in the Irish Sea
Reviving this from the old thread as I'm interested in where the UK figure was sourced from. The article doesn't quote a UK figure for the Moderna vaccine anywhere.
The UK is paying $37 per dose of the Moderna vaccine. The EU is paying $18 per dose. Both buyers ordered 40m doses. The EU offered the UK to join its buying consortium, but the UK turned them down. This is the team negotiating Brexit terms of trade.
Hi Malcom. Where are you getting the Uk figure from?
I can't find a reliable estimate since the summer (and we hadn't ordered 40m then).
Looking at the article the person who commented on it must have either assumed or knew UK paid list price, article shows list at $37.
The EU didn't pay the list price, so why the assumption the UK did?
Rob, That I don't know, they either knew something from elsewhere or just wanted to make it look bad for UK. Probably the latter but given volumes and when ordered it is likely UK paid more but whether list or not I don't know.
I don't see that. They are just quoting the list price, they don't say anything about what the UK paid for it.
The Mail had a report at the end of November (FWIW).
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
You would have thought people on the left could realise that this is not a naturally left wing country, not even centre left. Counting is the first rule of politics and the most forgotten. Especially having lost Scotland, the choice for the left is an updated form of Blairite politics or Tory govts.
For our GE24, probably yes, but longer term I'm optimistic for the Left.
The top 5 global priorities -
Climate change. The emancipation of women. Racial equality. Sustainable growth. Fairer distribution of wealth.
These are all better tackled from a Left perspective imo. Indeed some of them can only be tackled from there.
Sure, they are priorities, and the left have some of the answers, as does the right. But if the left dont learn to count, the only solutions that will be tried here will be those of the right. UK politics is not an even battle of ideas, it is uphill and difficult for the left to win, especially to win and hold on to significant power. It is no surprise only Blair has done this for them.
I sort of agree with you but my sense is that Labour can win from the Left given the right leader and messaging and policies. The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash.
SKS is just too boring to win, and that comes from someone who likes boring politicians and used to be in the party. He can make the party electable, but not elected.
I am with @Dura_Ace. Rayner is the one who could win. She has the necessary passion, and can appeal to both the Red Wall and the Corbynites.
I like her but does she have the intellectual clout, do you think?
I'm not getting distracted by the "WC" sound of her - that's great - but I mean the substance. Like, Corbyn imo was lacking in this area. Is Rayner a lot brighter than him?
Intellectual clout is one of a range of skills a PM needs. It falls in the "desirable" not "essential" column on the person specs.
Not sure I agree with that. But I do agree you need so much more and if it's a choice - which it shouldn't be - between intellect and integrity, say, or empathy/compassion, then I'd go for those.
Incidentally both Nandy and Rayner are a steal for next PM on current BFX odds at over 300/1. If Starmer does go, it would be one of other of these 2 IMO. Rayner is the more gutsy and won the Deputy Leadership without breaking a sweat.
Middle class Tory Remain voters would fear Rayner as they feared Corbyn and stick with the Tories in a way they do not fear Starmer.
As a Tory Rayner would be a great vote getter for us
If I was in charge of the Labour Party (either in Wales or Scotland or England), I would simply ban all males from entering future leadership contests.
OK, there have been female leaders of the Scottish Labour Party, but it is just plain embarrassing for the English and Wales parties never to have had a female leader. It looks like what it is -- systematic gender bias. It just make Labour look like a bunch of hypocrites, lecturing everyone else while their own party is a bastion of grey males.
I would encourage bumbling Mark Drakeford to take up a very dangerous sport like sky-diving without a parachute before the 2021 Senedd elections, and only permit female AMs to enter the resulting leadership election -- victory for Eluned Morgan ?
I would then let the incompetent Richard Leonard fall down an open pit mind, and allow only females to enter the resulting leadership election -- victory for Jenny Marra ?
I would let grey old SKS do the hard graft for a few more years, and then force him to fall on his sword in 2023 -- Lisa Nandy wins the resulting all-female leadership election.
Now that looks like a Jacinda party --- Nandy, Marra & Morgan. That looks a combo that could win really big.
Remember Jacinda Ardern only got a crack at the leadership because the existing NZ Labour leader Andrew Little voluntarily fell on his sword
Ardern did not win the 2017 election, Labour only came second to English's Nationals, she only got in with other parties support as current polls show Starmer would.
She did not get most votes in 2017.
But, of course, she bloody won in 2017 ... because she ended up as PM.
Just like Trump won in 2016 (he ended up as President) or Trudeau won in 2019 (he ended up as PM).
They both lost the popular vote ... but they ended up with their feet under the desk.
Incidentally both Nandy and Rayner are a steal for next PM on current BFX odds at over 300/1. If Starmer does go, it would be one of other of these 2 IMO. Rayner is the more gutsy and won the Deputy Leadership without breaking a sweat.
I personally wouldn't bet in a market where they can be beaten by Tories.
If Labour leave SKS in place for the nect election they deserve the loss that is coming their way. He has insufficient hate in his heart for tories. Theyd be better off with Rayner.
Apart possibly from Harold Wilson, every Labour leader who ‘hated the Tories’ have in common that they have never won or come close to winning an election.
Yep - to win elections Labour has to avoid scaring people regardless of what their membership really wants.
That was why Blair was so good for Labour there was nothing there that scared a (Tory) voter.
You would have thought people on the left could realise that this is not a naturally left wing country, not even centre left. Counting is the first rule of politics and the most forgotten. Especially having lost Scotland, the choice for the left is an updated form of Blairite politics or Tory govts.
For our GE24, probably yes, but longer term I'm optimistic for the Left.
The top 5 global priorities -
Climate change. The emancipation of women. Racial equality. Sustainable growth. Fairer distribution of wealth.
These are all better tackled from a Left perspective imo. Indeed some of them can only be tackled from there.
Sure, they are priorities, and the left have some of the answers, as does the right. But if the left dont learn to count, the only solutions that will be tried here will be those of the right. UK politics is not an even battle of ideas, it is uphill and difficult for the left to win, especially to win and hold on to significant power. It is no surprise only Blair has done this for them.
I sort of agree with you but my sense is that Labour can win from the Left given the right leader and messaging and policies. The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash.
SKS is just too boring to win, and that comes from someone who likes boring politicians and used to be in the party. He can make the party electable, but not elected.
I am with @Dura_Ace. Rayner is the one who could win. She has the necessary passion, and can appeal to both the Red Wall and the Corbynites.
I like her but does she have the intellectual clout, do you think?
I'm not getting distracted by the "WC" sound of her - that's great - but I mean the substance. Like, Corbyn imo was lacking in this area. Is Rayner a lot brighter than him?
No, they are both mince. Rayner as potential PM?? I`m sure the Tories would be delighted. Starmer is a nightmare for the Tories - I don`t know why some are dissing him.
These days labour and the tories are starting look like analogue parties in a digital age.
I don't see labour ever winning the working class back, and they will be under pressure in the cities and uni towns from BLM and Green going forward. Scotland? forget about it.
Meanwhile The tories have a similar problem with BXPReform/Reclaim in their constituencies. And low turnout when the bill for corona comes in and their core gets hit for six(ty billion).
If I was in charge of the Labour Party (either in Wales or Scotland or England), I would simply ban all males from entering future leadership contests.
OK, there have been female leaders of the Scottish Labour Party, but it is just plain embarrassing for the English and Wales parties never to have had a female leader. It looks like what it is -- systematic gender bias. It just make Labour look like a bunch of hypocrites, lecturing everyone else while their own party is a bastion of grey males.
I would encourage bumbling Mark Drakeford to take up a very dangerous sport like sky-diving without a parachute before the 2021 Senedd elections, and only permit female AMs to enter the resulting leadership election -- victory for Eluned Morgan ?
I would then let the incompetent Richard Leonard fall down an open pit mind, and allow only females to enter the resulting leadership election -- victory for Jenny Marra ?
I would let grey old SKS do the hard graft for a few more years, and then force him to fall on his sword in 2023 -- Lisa Nandy wins the resulting all-female leadership election.
Now that looks like a Jacinda party --- Nandy, Marra & Morgan. That looks a combo that could win really big.
Remember Jacinda Ardern only got a crack at the leadership because the existing NZ Labour leader Andrew Little voluntarily fell on his sword
Ardern did not win the 2017 election, Labour only came second to English's Nationals, she only got in with other parties support as current polls show Starmer would.
She did not get most votes in 2017.
But, of course, she bloody won in 2017 ... because she ended up as PM.
Just like Trump won in 2016 (he ended up as President) or Trudeau won in 2019 (he ended up as PM).
They both lost the popular vote ... but they ended up with their feet under the desk.
Trump won most EC votes in 2016, Trudeau won most seats in 2019, Ardern not only lost the popular vote she did not even win most seats in 2017.
On current polls Labour would lose the popular vote and the Tories would win most seats but Starmer like Ardern could still end up PM as the SNP and LDs would prop him up
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So you might get 5 years in 50 Corbynite rule, and allow the hard right to take over the Tory party for much of the other 45 years.
Or we could have 20 years of soft centre left, with most of the other 30 a Tory party fighting on the centre ground as Cameron did.
I know what I would prefer.
38-40% positive leadership approval is a good base for a PM in the midterms before a General Election.
Through most of 2012 David Cameron was in the low-thirties with positive leadership approval.
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1341337483762683908?s=20
All you've demonstrated is he inherited a sound right wing economy from Major whom you then reckon for some bizarre reason that Blair was to the right of?
If Blair was to the right of Major then did you vote Blair in 1997?
What an insane suggestion.
I have to say on the performance so far ... pretty darn unlikely.
For example, on Scotland, appointing El Gordo to examine constitutional matters looks like a backwards glance to the past. Gordon had his chance to change things. This doesn't even look like a serious attempt to re-imagine the UK with fresh eyes.
The platform and the person have to be contemporary not a 70s rehash
SKS is not a 70s rehash, but he does look like a noughties rehash.
He is way too old to do a Jacinda or a Tony. He is even older than Boris and Ed Davey. He doesn't seem to have fresh ideas, a fresh perspective.
Visually, he looks as grey as a East European dictator, circa 1970s. A bit like Ceausescu.
Only Blair of the post WW2 Labour leaders has won a majority in more than 1 general election in England
I really hope that 25% is an overly pessimistic estimate.
When my wife got hers last week she said it was extremely well organised, she got the jab, went to a distanced post-vaccination waiting area and there was one person observing the waiting area with a clipboard and a watch telling people when they could leave.
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1339910832956854274
That would be the same as 62801 cases in the UK.
OLD
14 day self quarantine OR
Test on arrival plus test on Day 13
NEW - effective immediately, including those already arrived/in quarantine.
21 day self quarantine OR
Test on arrival plus test on Day 13
Of the 20 cases they have caught from travel 17 were either on arrival or became symptomatic during quarantine - 3 were asymptomatic on the Day 13 test - so the extension to 21 days for quarantine for those who don’t want to test on day 13 should catch any of those.
Currently Guernsey has 4 cases - Jersey over 1,000.
I am very much believer in the former. Still am. I think we should have had a set of rules from when we let lockdown #1 and stuck to them, rather than this gyms this week, but not next, no golf in 3 days time, but shooting ok in a 3 weeks.
I haven't seen a single large nation succeed via long term consistent restrictions.
Being nimble and agile in reacting to what is happening is a key to success. Not being stuck and ignoring what is going on.
https://twitter.com/Breaking24Seven/status/1341370063799132161?s=19
.....But then she took out a restraining order...
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_2520
Fat chance they'll listen.
Having consistent restrictions isn't the Swedish model, loads of countries have done that.
And, yes, a good point you make about the timing. A deal announced months ago would have allowed for a lot of critical scrutiny. Johnson would not have welcomed this. It's not how he rolls.
https://www.brainyquote.com/authors/barry-gardiner-quotes
That can only be good news, right?
Large scale testing might be a problem though. How do new 'flu vaccines get tested? Is detailed testing not required because it is just a slight rehash of an earlier one?
Both are terrible models for being leader.
We can do what Nelson did when he used the French Navy as his main supplier of new ships.
Enforce properly, confiscate and sell off French trawlers to pay their fines when they break the regs, which can then become part of the increase in the UK fleet.
Macron would love it
I'm not getting distracted by the "WC" sound of her - that's great - but I mean the substance. Like, Corbyn imo was lacking in this area. Is Rayner a lot brighter than him?
I am concluding there is no appetite for anyone other than a music hall comedian to be Prime Minister.
"Commission adopts Recommendation on EU coordinated approach to travel and transport in response to new variant of coronavirus in the UK"
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/oct/09/nikki-haley/no-khrushchev-didnt-say-about-americans-60-years-a/
Starmer would be the first PM not to win most seats at a general election since Macdonald in 1923
Could we engineer a virus to selectively attack a particular cancer ?
with patter like that, I bet you get none of the girls
OK, there have been female leaders of the Scottish Labour Party, but it is just plain embarrassing for the English and Wales parties never to have had a female leader. It looks like what it is -- systematic gender bias. It just make Labour look like a bunch of hypocrites, lecturing everyone else while their own party is a bastion of grey males.
I would encourage bumbling Mark Drakeford to take up a very dangerous sport like sky-diving without a parachute before the 2021 Senedd elections, and only permit female AMs to enter the resulting leadership election -- victory for Eluned Morgan ?
I would then let the incompetent Richard Leonard fall down an open pit mind, and allow only females to enter the resulting leadership election -- victory for Jenny Marra ?
I would let grey old SKS do the hard graft for a few more years, and then force him to fall on his sword in 2023 -- Lisa Nandy wins the resulting all-female leadership election.
Now that looks like a Jacinda party --- Nandy, Marra & Morgan. That looks a combo that could win really big.
Remember Jacinda Ardern only got a crack at the leadership because the existing NZ Labour leader Andrew Little voluntarily fell on his sword
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1341234420536266753
Not that I've bitter memories of stories coming down to clinical areas......
He must: he's no true Scot
She could be a female Prescott for Starmer but no more than that
Nandy would be overpromoted leading Wigan council
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9001019/Moderna-submit-coronavirus-vaccine-emergency-approval.html
...The deal is expected to cost the UK between £24 ($32) and £28 ($37) per dose, according to reports. The US, which pre-ordered the jab months ago, will pay just $15 (£11.32).
For comparison, the Pfizer jab is expected to cost $19.50 (£14.79) per dose, based on a deal signed with America...
As a Tory Rayner would be a great vote getter for us
But, of course, she bloody won in 2017 ... because she ended up as PM.
Just like Trump won in 2016 (he ended up as President) or Trudeau won in 2019 (he ended up as PM).
They both lost the popular vote ... but they ended up with their feet under the desk.
I don't see labour ever winning the working class back, and they will be under pressure in the cities and uni towns from BLM and Green going forward. Scotland? forget about it.
Meanwhile The tories have a similar problem with BXPReform/Reclaim in their constituencies. And low turnout when the bill for corona comes in and their core gets hit for six(ty billion).
On current polls Labour would lose the popular vote and the Tories would win most seats but Starmer like Ardern could still end up PM as the SNP and LDs would prop him up
https://listverse.com/2018/08/13/10-viruses-that-actually-help-humankind/