Yup. His second notable mistake after the handling of the Corbyn dispute, in what's been a good year for him overall. He better hope that a deal at least partially protects him from the fallout.
Under the last Labour government child poverty fell by 150,000 in Scotland. But under the SNP, child poverty has risen sharply and is forecast to reach one in three Scottish children by 2030. And I’m afraid it’s the same story on public health. Life expectancy in Scotland is now the lowest in Western Europe – with Scottish men in the poorest areas expected to die 13 years before those in least deprived areas.
Finally, it's time to attack the SNP on policy. Now Independence is neutralised we can re-build.
Er, a perfectly understandable reaction to a new plague across The Channel?
So why abandon it so quickly?
Where does it say they abandoned it? I can't see anything on the BBC website to that effect.
They haven't abandoned it. The EU is working on a new protocol which may restore traffic once it is developed and agreed by us. Suspect mandatory negative test will be required - so rapid testing will need to be set up at Dover / the tunnel and drivers tested before travel.
I don't need to explain what impact that will have on traffic flow! Yes they will remove the absolute blockade. And replace it with a process blockade. Happily in 10 days time they can do the rapid Covid tests whilst everyone is stuck in the day long queue to get through customs.
Brilliant. Two birds one stone.
We can get customs clearance done while processing Covid tests.
Absolutely no reason whatsoever to postpone the end of transition now.
We've. Already. Gone. No. Deal.
Not sure why the two birds one stone thing is brilliant though. The impact of day long delays on our supply chain will be brutal. That they can do a covid test whilst people wait for customs isn't a benefit.
Reading the NERVTAG comments, they are....er.....'moderately confident' the strain is up to 70% quicker in transmission.
So our freedoms are being curtailed and our economy smashed on the 'moderate confidence' of a group of scientists whose predictions have often been found to be very, very flawed, and the premise of whose work is profoundly disputed by other in some cases eminent scientists.
Covid is over everyone. Let's get back to normal.
When the government shut us down first, they told us a massive lie. They told us the shutdown was to beef up capacity in the NHS.
Just today, in the BBC's report, nine months on, came the truth from the NHS. We never, ever had the staff to increase NHS capacity, either then or in the near future.
Given the huge lie we were told then, surely we should be questioning everything the government tells us. Everything the SAGE committee tells us. Everything Sky News tells us.
You sound a bit paranoid - I doubt if anyone is systematically lying. The problem is more the one identified by Johnson's former speechwriter in the header - given uncertainty, Johnson's instinct is to hope for the best and tell people it'll be OK. In a period with great uncertainty, what we need is a "goalkeeper" type, constantly on the alert for possible threats and never relying on good fortune.
The new virus strain is a good example. It appears to be better at spreading. We don't know much more yet - there are scientific reasons to think the vacccinations will still work against it (though we're not yet sure). But it may or may not be more or less likely to kill you, and that will become clear in about 2-3 weeks as the current infections works through. A goalkeeper response to that is to assume it's worse in every way until research shows otherwise. Lock down everywhere, including areas with currently lower levels of infection. Don't hope it'll be no worse and wait to find out.
Contrarian, Rotten Borough and a few more here have the right suspicions. Otherwise this site apparently changed in the spring to Coronachondria.com with few able to think for themselves.
When I last posted on here I was called a loon. Most unfortunate language ... suggests that the person using it doesn't want a debate.
A senior medic (Prof Carl Heneghan, Oxford) has resorted to asking on Twitter for the scientific evidence that the 'mutant virus' is more infectious. Yesterday evening, he seemed to have had no reply.
OK. I take back what I said in his defence, if he's questioning whether it is more infectious.
We discussed this earlier today when it was pointed out that scientists, similarly, for months questioned the efficacy of masks. Eventually that discussion was settled and had we waited for double-blind peer-reviewed randomized trials millions more would have perished.
But you don't really need to await scientic foolproofing, the massive rise in infection rates in areas where the mutant is known to exist is perfectly adequate evidence for the vast majority of sane people.
He has decided that the only solution to former Labour voters who want Brexit is to give them Brexit. I get the concept, though helping to facilitate the shitshow won't be popular as it lands on people and takes their manufacturing jobs away.
He has decided that the only solution to former Labour voters who want Brexit is to give them Brexit. I get the concept, though helping to facilitate the shitshow won't be popular as it lands on people and takes their manufacturing jobs away.
I get the logic of the policy but I think in the current climate we're mad to be thinking about Brexit. Do it, just not right this second
However extending our membership of the SM and CU beyond January would be terrible for the Tories and lead to mass defections to Farage exactly as happened from spring 2019 when May delayed Brexit.
65% of Tory voters and 63% of Leave voters oppose extending the transition period
The best option for Boris and the Tories is to agree a basic Canada style trade deal with the EU, however even No Deal would be better than extending the transition period for the party if that cannot be agreed by January
We are 4 years out from a General Election. Johnson moving the date by a month or two will have absolutely no impact on what people think in 4 years time. What will matter to Johnson at the next election is whether or not he can reasonably claim that Brexit has been a success. The fact that 4 years earlier it happened 30 or 60 days later than planned will be completely immaterial.
If we are 4 years out from an election, why the mad rush to repeal the FTPA?
Er, a perfectly understandable reaction to a new plague across The Channel?
So why abandon it so quickly?
Where does it say they abandoned it? I can't see anything on the BBC website to that effect.
They haven't abandoned it. The EU is working on a new protocol which may restore traffic once it is developed and agreed by us. Suspect mandatory negative test will be required - so rapid testing will need to be set up at Dover / the tunnel and drivers tested before travel.
I don't need to explain what impact that will have on traffic flow! Yes they will remove the absolute blockade. And replace it with a process blockade. Happily in 10 days time they can do the rapid Covid tests whilst everyone is stuck in the day long queue to get through customs.
Brilliant. Two birds one stone.
We can get customs clearance done while processing Covid tests.
Absolutely no reason whatsoever to postpone the end of transition now.
We've. Already. Gone. No. Deal.
Not sure why the two birds one stone thing is brilliant though. The impact of day long delays on our supply chain will be brutal. That they can do a covid test whilst people wait for customs isn't a benefit.
If we've already done it then great. Time to adjust and move on.
We were always going to leave the customs union. That was decided five years ago. A deal wouldn't have kept us in the customs union anyway.
He has decided that the only solution to former Labour voters who want Brexit is to give them Brexit. I get the concept, though helping to facilitate the shitshow won't be popular as it lands on people and takes their manufacturing jobs away.
I get the logic of the policy but I think in the current climate we're mad to be thinking about Brexit. Do it, just not right this second
It's only the ultra-hardcore that will be thinking otherwise, in the current climate and amongst the current worries over the virus. Not around 30%, but probably closer to 15%.
I want devolution and social justice to be the hallmarks of the next Labour government.
Very Blair.
Yes except that Blair was also massively pro EU and at the time we were members. Now Scotland, which never voted for Brexit, finds itself plunged into the Johnson right-wing shitshow.
The legal argument for a second independence referendum appears compelling because of the constitutional paradigm shift caused by Brexit. It's incredibly undemocratic and, of course, entirely duplicitous of Labour to ignore this. They're only doing it because they know they would never win power again if they don't regain Scottish MP's in Westminster.
It's shit.
And I write that as someone who joined Labour earlier this year when Corbyn was booted out. I shall probably cut up my membership card and send it back.
I generally quite like Keir Starmer but he sure as hell has made some shit decisions. It's partly because of him that we got the Carl Beech fiasco.
Keir seems to be saying that during a pandemic is not a time to have a referendum and setting out Labour 2021 policies. Not ruling it out for 2024 onwards HYUFD style.
So its irrelevant gibberish. Keir isn't going to be 2021 PM. It is pre-election virtue signalling not a promise not to work with the SNP if they're kingmakers in 2024.
He has decided that the only solution to former Labour voters who want Brexit is to give them Brexit. I get the concept, though helping to facilitate the shitshow won't be popular as it lands on people and takes their manufacturing jobs away.
I get the logic of the policy but I think in the current climate we're mad to be thinking about Brexit. Do it, just not right this second
But this is Highlander. Just Gimme the Prize (the Prize). People have been promised their own individually tailored moon on a stick and its supposed to be handed to them in 11 days time. Why delay now when the prize in within reach?
However extending our membership of the SM and CU beyond January would be terrible for the Tories and lead to mass defections to Farage exactly as happened from spring 2019 when May delayed Brexit.
65% of Tory voters and 63% of Leave voters oppose extending the transition period
The best option for Boris and the Tories is to agree a basic Canada style trade deal with the EU, however even No Deal would be better than extending the transition period for the party if that cannot be agreed by January
We are 4 years out from a General Election. Johnson moving the date by a month or two will have absolutely no impact on what people think in 4 years time. What will matter to Johnson at the next election is whether or not he can reasonably claim that Brexit has been a success. The fact that 4 years earlier it happened 30 or 60 days later than planned will be completely immaterial.
If we are 4 years out from an election, why the mad rush to repeal the FTPA?
Can't think of anything useful to do? Frightened they might be in charge of another disaster and unable to escape?
Er, a perfectly understandable reaction to a new plague across The Channel?
So why abandon it so quickly?
Where does it say they abandoned it? I can't see anything on the BBC website to that effect.
They haven't abandoned it. The EU is working on a new protocol which may restore traffic once it is developed and agreed by us. Suspect mandatory negative test will be required - so rapid testing will need to be set up at Dover / the tunnel and drivers tested before travel.
I don't need to explain what impact that will have on traffic flow! Yes they will remove the absolute blockade. And replace it with a process blockade. Happily in 10 days time they can do the rapid Covid tests whilst everyone is stuck in the day long queue to get through customs.
Brilliant. Two birds one stone.
We can get customs clearance done while processing Covid tests.
Absolutely no reason whatsoever to postpone the end of transition now.
We've. Already. Gone. No. Deal.
Not sure why the two birds one stone thing is brilliant though. The impact of day long delays on our supply chain will be brutal. That they can do a covid test whilst people wait for customs isn't a benefit.
If we've already done it then great. Time to adjust and move on.
We were always going to leave the customs union. That was decided five years ago. A deal wouldn't have kept us in the customs union anyway.
I know it wouldn't - thats why I was less stressed about the deal than others. We are about to learn what was easy to learn - that a customs border with 10k trucks a day passing in each direction is not a functioning border.
He has decided that the only solution to former Labour voters who want Brexit is to give them Brexit. I get the concept, though helping to facilitate the shitshow won't be popular as it lands on people and takes their manufacturing jobs away.
I get the logic of the policy but I think in the current climate we're mad to be thinking about Brexit. Do it, just not right this second
But this is Highlander. Just Gimme the Prize (the Prize). People have been promised their own individually tailored moon on a stick and its supposed to be handed to them in 11 days time. Why delay now when the prize in within reach?
There can be only one.
And you reckon we've already done it so why row back now?
I can't see a single good reason to kick the can that doesn't entail wishing something magical will come up in the meantime that will make our exit of the customs union go away. We're leaving. We're already there. Its done. Why go through this twice?
Er, a perfectly understandable reaction to a new plague across The Channel?
So why abandon it so quickly?
Where does it say they abandoned it? I can't see anything on the BBC website to that effect.
They haven't abandoned it. The EU is working on a new protocol which may restore traffic once it is developed and agreed by us. Suspect mandatory negative test will be required - so rapid testing will need to be set up at Dover / the tunnel and drivers tested before travel.
I don't need to explain what impact that will have on traffic flow! Yes they will remove the absolute blockade. And replace it with a process blockade. Happily in 10 days time they can do the rapid Covid tests whilst everyone is stuck in the day long queue to get through customs.
Brilliant. Two birds one stone.
We can get customs clearance done while processing Covid tests.
Absolutely no reason whatsoever to postpone the end of transition now.
We've. Already. Gone. No. Deal.
Not sure why the two birds one stone thing is brilliant though. The impact of day long delays on our supply chain will be brutal. That they can do a covid test whilst people wait for customs isn't a benefit.
If we've already done it then great. Time to adjust and move on.
We were always going to leave the customs union. That was decided five years ago. A deal wouldn't have kept us in the customs union anyway.
I know it wouldn't - thats why I was less stressed about the deal than others. We are about to learn what was easy to learn - that a customs border with 10k trucks a day passing in each direction is not a functioning border.
Except the customs border isn't in one place, its dispersed across the nation.
Even my hometown a five hour drive from Dover will be part of the border.
Er, a perfectly understandable reaction to a new plague across The Channel?
So why abandon it so quickly?
Where does it say they abandoned it? I can't see anything on the BBC website to that effect.
They haven't abandoned it. The EU is working on a new protocol which may restore traffic once it is developed and agreed by us. Suspect mandatory negative test will be required - so rapid testing will need to be set up at Dover / the tunnel and drivers tested before travel.
I don't need to explain what impact that will have on traffic flow! Yes they will remove the absolute blockade. And replace it with a process blockade. Happily in 10 days time they can do the rapid Covid tests whilst everyone is stuck in the day long queue to get through customs.
Brilliant. Two birds one stone.
We can get customs clearance done while processing Covid tests.
Absolutely no reason whatsoever to postpone the end of transition now.
We've. Already. Gone. No. Deal.
Not sure why the two birds one stone thing is brilliant though. The impact of day long delays on our supply chain will be brutal. That they can do a covid test whilst people wait for customs isn't a benefit.
If we've already done it then great. Time to adjust and move on.
We were always going to leave the customs union. That was decided five years ago. A deal wouldn't have kept us in the customs union anyway.
I know it wouldn't - thats why I was less stressed about the deal than others. We are about to learn what was easy to learn - that a customs border with 10k trucks a day passing in each direction is not a functioning border.
Except the customs border isn't in one place, its dispersed across the nation.
Even my hometown a five hour drive from Dover will be part of the border.
Er, a perfectly understandable reaction to a new plague across The Channel?
So why abandon it so quickly?
Where does it say they abandoned it? I can't see anything on the BBC website to that effect.
They haven't abandoned it. The EU is working on a new protocol which may restore traffic once it is developed and agreed by us. Suspect mandatory negative test will be required - so rapid testing will need to be set up at Dover / the tunnel and drivers tested before travel.
I don't need to explain what impact that will have on traffic flow! Yes they will remove the absolute blockade. And replace it with a process blockade. Happily in 10 days time they can do the rapid Covid tests whilst everyone is stuck in the day long queue to get through customs.
Brilliant. Two birds one stone.
We can get customs clearance done while processing Covid tests.
Absolutely no reason whatsoever to postpone the end of transition now.
We've. Already. Gone. No. Deal.
Not sure why the two birds one stone thing is brilliant though. The impact of day long delays on our supply chain will be brutal. That they can do a covid test whilst people wait for customs isn't a benefit.
If we've already done it then great. Time to adjust and move on.
We were always going to leave the customs union. That was decided five years ago. A deal wouldn't have kept us in the customs union anyway.
I know it wouldn't - thats why I was less stressed about the deal than others. We are about to learn what was easy to learn - that a customs border with 10k trucks a day passing in each direction is not a functioning border.
Except the customs border isn't in one place, its dispersed across the nation.
Even my hometown a five hour drive from Dover will be part of the border.
Yes, so the solution to 10k trucks a day through Calais is send them somewhere else? Of course longer sea crossings have a far lower capacity so unless you have a flotilla of RoRo ships on standby that won't work either.
And what do you mean "dispersed across the nation"? We might want have dispersed pretend border checks elsewhere than the port. The French won't. Its always been their hard border that we insist they have to have that fucks us over.
Er, a perfectly understandable reaction to a new plague across The Channel?
So why abandon it so quickly?
Where does it say they abandoned it? I can't see anything on the BBC website to that effect.
They haven't abandoned it. The EU is working on a new protocol which may restore traffic once it is developed and agreed by us. Suspect mandatory negative test will be required - so rapid testing will need to be set up at Dover / the tunnel and drivers tested before travel.
I don't need to explain what impact that will have on traffic flow! Yes they will remove the absolute blockade. And replace it with a process blockade. Happily in 10 days time they can do the rapid Covid tests whilst everyone is stuck in the day long queue to get through customs.
Brilliant. Two birds one stone.
We can get customs clearance done while processing Covid tests.
Absolutely no reason whatsoever to postpone the end of transition now.
We've. Already. Gone. No. Deal.
Not sure why the two birds one stone thing is brilliant though. The impact of day long delays on our supply chain will be brutal. That they can do a covid test whilst people wait for customs isn't a benefit.
If we've already done it then great. Time to adjust and move on.
We were always going to leave the customs union. That was decided five years ago. A deal wouldn't have kept us in the customs union anyway.
I know it wouldn't - thats why I was less stressed about the deal than others. We are about to learn what was easy to learn - that a customs border with 10k trucks a day passing in each direction is not a functioning border.
Except the customs border isn't in one place, its dispersed across the nation.
Even my hometown a five hour drive from Dover will be part of the border.
Warrington?
Indeed.
There aren't many Warrington-Calais or even Ireland direct routes.
But on the other hand for North Wales and Northwest England its prime location for processing vehicles. Intersection of M6, M56, M62, the Manchester Ship Canal, close to Liverpool, Manchester, easy access to Wales and Ireland.
Logical position to process vehicles for our region and demonstrates that they don't all have to be (and won't all be) processed in Kent.
Starmer has basically decided going for extension means political suicide for Labour with Red Wall voters, so he has decided to push for a Deal but otherwise not support any extension and let the PM own No Deal if Boris goes for that
Yup. His second notable mistake after the handling of the Corbyn dispute, in what's been a good year for him overall. He better hope that a deal at least partially protects him from the fallout.
I disagree. if there is an extension to the transition period Starmer is going to attack Johnson mercilessly for failing to deliver, thus sending a message to red-wallers and others that his Brexit-blocking days are over.
Yup. His second notable mistake after the handling of the Corbyn dispute, in what's been a good year for him overall. He better hope that a deal at least partially protects him from the fallout.
I disagree. if there is an extension to the transition period Starmer is going to attack Johnson mercilessly for failing to deliver, thus sending a message to red-wallers and others that his Brexit-blocking days are over.
Er, a perfectly understandable reaction to a new plague across The Channel?
So why abandon it so quickly?
Where does it say they abandoned it? I can't see anything on the BBC website to that effect.
They haven't abandoned it. The EU is working on a new protocol which may restore traffic once it is developed and agreed by us. Suspect mandatory negative test will be required - so rapid testing will need to be set up at Dover / the tunnel and drivers tested before travel.
I don't need to explain what impact that will have on traffic flow! Yes they will remove the absolute blockade. And replace it with a process blockade. Happily in 10 days time they can do the rapid Covid tests whilst everyone is stuck in the day long queue to get through customs.
Brilliant. Two birds one stone.
We can get customs clearance done while processing Covid tests.
Absolutely no reason whatsoever to postpone the end of transition now.
We've. Already. Gone. No. Deal.
Not sure why the two birds one stone thing is brilliant though. The impact of day long delays on our supply chain will be brutal. That they can do a covid test whilst people wait for customs isn't a benefit.
If we've already done it then great. Time to adjust and move on.
We were always going to leave the customs union. That was decided five years ago. A deal wouldn't have kept us in the customs union anyway.
I know it wouldn't - thats why I was less stressed about the deal than others. We are about to learn what was easy to learn - that a customs border with 10k trucks a day passing in each direction is not a functioning border.
Except the customs border isn't in one place, its dispersed across the nation.
Even my hometown a five hour drive from Dover will be part of the border.
Yes, so the solution to 10k trucks a day through Calais is send them somewhere else? Of course longer sea crossings have a far lower capacity so unless you have a flotilla of RoRo ships on standby that won't work either.
And what do you mean "dispersed across the nation"? We might want have dispersed pretend border checks elsewhere than the port. The French won't. Its always been their hard border that we insist they have to have that fucks us over.
Haven't we heard for years the French and Europeans were ready for No Deal? 🤔
We are leaving the Single Market. We can't time it based on the actions or inactions of the French, time to get on with it.
One of the worst things about our devolution is the separation out of UK national data into sub-national compartments and their inevitable differences in definition, coverage and so on. The obfuscation seems designed to inhibit fair and true comparisons.
Starmer has basically decided going for extension means political suicide for Labour with Red Wall voters, so he has decided to push for a Deal but otherwise not support any extension and let the PM own No Deal if Boris goes for that
Far too nuanced. The Labour policy all year has been that Boris needs to 100% own the result of this negotiation.
Well, someone keeps putting a graph on PB almost every day of cases in the four nations that shows a marked disparity between Scotrland and the others.
Er, a perfectly understandable reaction to a new plague across The Channel?
So why abandon it so quickly?
Where does it say they abandoned it? I can't see anything on the BBC website to that effect.
They haven't abandoned it. The EU is working on a new protocol which may restore traffic once it is developed and agreed by us. Suspect mandatory negative test will be required - so rapid testing will need to be set up at Dover / the tunnel and drivers tested before travel.
I don't need to explain what impact that will have on traffic flow! Yes they will remove the absolute blockade. And replace it with a process blockade. Happily in 10 days time they can do the rapid Covid tests whilst everyone is stuck in the day long queue to get through customs.
Brilliant. Two birds one stone.
We can get customs clearance done while processing Covid tests.
Absolutely no reason whatsoever to postpone the end of transition now.
We've. Already. Gone. No. Deal.
Not sure why the two birds one stone thing is brilliant though. The impact of day long delays on our supply chain will be brutal. That they can do a covid test whilst people wait for customs isn't a benefit.
If we've already done it then great. Time to adjust and move on.
We were always going to leave the customs union. That was decided five years ago. A deal wouldn't have kept us in the customs union anyway.
I know it wouldn't - thats why I was less stressed about the deal than others. We are about to learn what was easy to learn - that a customs border with 10k trucks a day passing in each direction is not a functioning border.
Except the customs border isn't in one place, its dispersed across the nation.
Even my hometown a five hour drive from Dover will be part of the border.
Yes, so the solution to 10k trucks a day through Calais is send them somewhere else? Of course longer sea crossings have a far lower capacity so unless you have a flotilla of RoRo ships on standby that won't work either.
And what do you mean "dispersed across the nation"? We might want have dispersed pretend border checks elsewhere than the port. The French won't. Its always been their hard border that we insist they have to have that fucks us over.
Haven't we heard for years the French and Europeans were ready for No Deal? 🤔
We are leaving the Single Market. We can't time it based on the actions or inactions of the French, time to get on with it.
They are ready for no deal. They will process trucks like any other external EU border. Completely fucks us but thats what we've asked them to do.
Yup. His second notable mistake after the handling of the Corbyn dispute, in what's been a good year for him overall. He better hope that a deal at least partially protects him from the fallout.
I disagree. if there is an extension to the transition period Starmer is going to attack Johnson mercilessly for failing to deliver, thus sending a message to red-wallers and others that his Brexit-blocking days are over.
LD revival in that case.
Starmer can easily afford a LD revival in Hampstead, Camden, Islington, Manchester, Oxford and Cambridge etc as Labour will easily still win most of those seats anyway.
What he cannot afford is for Labour to lose Red Wall voters to the Tories again by being seen to block full delivery of Brexit, hence his position of no extension to the transition period but get the Deal done first to avoid No Deal
Er, a perfectly understandable reaction to a new plague across The Channel?
So why abandon it so quickly?
Where does it say they abandoned it? I can't see anything on the BBC website to that effect.
They haven't abandoned it. The EU is working on a new protocol which may restore traffic once it is developed and agreed by us. Suspect mandatory negative test will be required - so rapid testing will need to be set up at Dover / the tunnel and drivers tested before travel.
I don't need to explain what impact that will have on traffic flow! Yes they will remove the absolute blockade. And replace it with a process blockade. Happily in 10 days time they can do the rapid Covid tests whilst everyone is stuck in the day long queue to get through customs.
Brilliant. Two birds one stone.
We can get customs clearance done while processing Covid tests.
Absolutely no reason whatsoever to postpone the end of transition now.
We've. Already. Gone. No. Deal.
Not sure why the two birds one stone thing is brilliant though. The impact of day long delays on our supply chain will be brutal. That they can do a covid test whilst people wait for customs isn't a benefit.
If we've already done it then great. Time to adjust and move on.
We were always going to leave the customs union. That was decided five years ago. A deal wouldn't have kept us in the customs union anyway.
I know it wouldn't - thats why I was less stressed about the deal than others. We are about to learn what was easy to learn - that a customs border with 10k trucks a day passing in each direction is not a functioning border.
Except the customs border isn't in one place, its dispersed across the nation.
Even my hometown a five hour drive from Dover will be part of the border.
Yes, so the solution to 10k trucks a day through Calais is send them somewhere else? Of course longer sea crossings have a far lower capacity so unless you have a flotilla of RoRo ships on standby that won't work either.
And what do you mean "dispersed across the nation"? We might want have dispersed pretend border checks elsewhere than the port. The French won't. Its always been their hard border that we insist they have to have that fucks us over.
Haven't we heard for years the French and Europeans were ready for No Deal? 🤔
We are leaving the Single Market. We can't time it based on the actions or inactions of the French, time to get on with it.
They are ready for no deal. They will process trucks like any other external EU border. Completely fucks us but thats what we've asked them to do.
So if they're ready its not going to change. Time to get on with it surely?
Yup. His second notable mistake after the handling of the Corbyn dispute, in what's been a good year for him overall. He better hope that a deal at least partially protects him from the fallout.
I disagree. if there is an extension to the transition period Starmer is going to attack Johnson mercilessly for failing to deliver, thus sending a message to red-wallers and others that his Brexit-blocking days are over.
Yup. His second notable mistake after the handling of the Corbyn dispute, in what's been a good year for him overall. He better hope that a deal at least partially protects him from the fallout.
I disagree. if there is an extension to the transition period Starmer is going to attack Johnson mercilessly for failing to deliver, thus sending a message to red-wallers and others that his Brexit-blocking days are over.
LD revival in that case.
Should be - should. LDs need to attract a decent chunk of ideologically liberals who currently vote Conservative, just as in 2019 the Tories attracted a chunk of ideologically conservative away from voting Labour.
Well, someone keeps putting a graph on PB almost every day of cases in the four nations that shows a marked disparity between Scotrland and the others.
Malmesbury's data is based on testing, but there's less testing in Scotland.
ONS data doesn't depend upon testing numbers.
Scotland having fewer cases is like Trump's "if we do fewer tests we'll have fewer cases".
Yup. His second notable mistake after the handling of the Corbyn dispute, in what's been a good year for him overall. He better hope that a deal at least partially protects him from the fallout.
I disagree. if there is an extension to the transition period Starmer is going to attack Johnson mercilessly for failing to deliver, thus sending a message to red-wallers and others that his Brexit-blocking days are over.
LD revival in that case.
Starmer can easily afford a LD revival in Hampstead, Camden, Islington, Manchester, Oxford and Cambridge etc as Labour will easily still win most of those seats anyway.
What he cannot afford is for Labour to lose Red Wall voters again by being seen to block full delivery of Brexit, hence his position of no extension to the transition period but get the Deal done first to avoid No Deal
I don't agree at all. If Starmer starts to be seen not only as maintaining a hands-off approach to Brexit, but positively championing its acceleration, he'll start to lose huge swathes of voters in all sorts of places all over the country. It's easy to forget because of press coverage, but the majority have been against Brexit since 2017. Many of those will tolerate but never endorse.
Er, a perfectly understandable reaction to a new plague across The Channel?
So why abandon it so quickly?
Where does it say they abandoned it? I can't see anything on the BBC website to that effect.
They haven't abandoned it. The EU is working on a new protocol which may restore traffic once it is developed and agreed by us. Suspect mandatory negative test will be required - so rapid testing will need to be set up at Dover / the tunnel and drivers tested before travel.
I don't need to explain what impact that will have on traffic flow! Yes they will remove the absolute blockade. And replace it with a process blockade. Happily in 10 days time they can do the rapid Covid tests whilst everyone is stuck in the day long queue to get through customs.
Brilliant. Two birds one stone.
We can get customs clearance done while processing Covid tests.
Absolutely no reason whatsoever to postpone the end of transition now.
We've. Already. Gone. No. Deal.
Not sure why the two birds one stone thing is brilliant though. The impact of day long delays on our supply chain will be brutal. That they can do a covid test whilst people wait for customs isn't a benefit.
If we've already done it then great. Time to adjust and move on.
We were always going to leave the customs union. That was decided five years ago. A deal wouldn't have kept us in the customs union anyway.
I know it wouldn't - thats why I was less stressed about the deal than others. We are about to learn what was easy to learn - that a customs border with 10k trucks a day passing in each direction is not a functioning border.
Except the customs border isn't in one place, its dispersed across the nation.
Even my hometown a five hour drive from Dover will be part of the border.
Yes, so the solution to 10k trucks a day through Calais is send them somewhere else? Of course longer sea crossings have a far lower capacity so unless you have a flotilla of RoRo ships on standby that won't work either.
And what do you mean "dispersed across the nation"? We might want have dispersed pretend border checks elsewhere than the port. The French won't. Its always been their hard border that we insist they have to have that fucks us over.
Haven't we heard for years the French and Europeans were ready for No Deal? 🤔
We are leaving the Single Market. We can't time it based on the actions or inactions of the French, time to get on with it.
They are ready for no deal. They will process trucks like any other external EU border. Completely fucks us but thats what we've asked them to do.
So if they're ready its not going to change. Time to get on with it surely?
It's already happened! Industry is working on No Deal terms hence trying to ram as much stuff in as they can before the border shuts down on 1st January
Er, a perfectly understandable reaction to a new plague across The Channel?
So why abandon it so quickly?
Where does it say they abandoned it? I can't see anything on the BBC website to that effect.
They haven't abandoned it. The EU is working on a new protocol which may restore traffic once it is developed and agreed by us. Suspect mandatory negative test will be required - so rapid testing will need to be set up at Dover / the tunnel and drivers tested before travel.
I don't need to explain what impact that will have on traffic flow! Yes they will remove the absolute blockade. And replace it with a process blockade. Happily in 10 days time they can do the rapid Covid tests whilst everyone is stuck in the day long queue to get through customs.
Brilliant. Two birds one stone.
We can get customs clearance done while processing Covid tests.
Absolutely no reason whatsoever to postpone the end of transition now.
We've. Already. Gone. No. Deal.
Not sure why the two birds one stone thing is brilliant though. The impact of day long delays on our supply chain will be brutal. That they can do a covid test whilst people wait for customs isn't a benefit.
If we've already done it then great. Time to adjust and move on.
We were always going to leave the customs union. That was decided five years ago. A deal wouldn't have kept us in the customs union anyway.
I know it wouldn't - thats why I was less stressed about the deal than others. We are about to learn what was easy to learn - that a customs border with 10k trucks a day passing in each direction is not a functioning border.
Except the customs border isn't in one place, its dispersed across the nation.
Even my hometown a five hour drive from Dover will be part of the border.
Yes, so the solution to 10k trucks a day through Calais is send them somewhere else? Of course longer sea crossings have a far lower capacity so unless you have a flotilla of RoRo ships on standby that won't work either.
And what do you mean "dispersed across the nation"? We might want have dispersed pretend border checks elsewhere than the port. The French won't. Its always been their hard border that we insist they have to have that fucks us over.
Haven't we heard for years the French and Europeans were ready for No Deal? 🤔
We are leaving the Single Market. We can't time it based on the actions or inactions of the French, time to get on with it.
They are ready for no deal. They will process trucks like any other external EU border. Completely fucks us but thats what we've asked them to do.
So if they're ready its not going to change. Time to get on with it surely?
It's already happened! Industry is working on No Deal terms hence trying to ram as much stuff in as they can before the border shuts down on 1st January
Good. So since its already happened its time to move on with life and not ask for an extension only to make it happen all over again. Agreed?
Starmer has basically decided going for extension means political suicide for Labour with Red Wall voters, so he has decided to push for a Deal but otherwise not support any extension and let the PM own No Deal if Boris goes for that
Sure, but it doesn't require much, er, foresight to see that if the option of an extension is closed off, and the EU doesn't accept what the UK is requesting, then the inevitable consequence is No Deal. A wee bit risky for Starmer however he tries to spin it.
Starmer has basically decided going for extension means political suicide for Labour with Red Wall voters, so he has decided to push for a Deal but otherwise not support any extension and let the PM own No Deal if Boris goes for that
Sure, but it doesn't require much, er, foresight to see that if the option of an extension is closed off, and the EU doesn't accept what the UK is requesting, then the inevitable consequence is No Deal. A wee bit risky for Starmer however he tries to spin it.
Starmer will just blame the Government.
LOTO doesn't own anything. Unless they prevent the Government from acting 2017-19 style.
Er, a perfectly understandable reaction to a new plague across The Channel?
So why abandon it so quickly?
Where does it say they abandoned it? I can't see anything on the BBC website to that effect.
They haven't abandoned it. The EU is working on a new protocol which may restore traffic once it is developed and agreed by us. Suspect mandatory negative test will be required - so rapid testing will need to be set up at Dover / the tunnel and drivers tested before travel.
I don't need to explain what impact that will have on traffic flow! Yes they will remove the absolute blockade. And replace it with a process blockade. Happily in 10 days time they can do the rapid Covid tests whilst everyone is stuck in the day long queue to get through customs.
Brilliant. Two birds one stone.
We can get customs clearance done while processing Covid tests.
Absolutely no reason whatsoever to postpone the end of transition now.
We've. Already. Gone. No. Deal.
Not sure why the two birds one stone thing is brilliant though. The impact of day long delays on our supply chain will be brutal. That they can do a covid test whilst people wait for customs isn't a benefit.
If we've already done it then great. Time to adjust and move on.
We were always going to leave the customs union. That was decided five years ago. A deal wouldn't have kept us in the customs union anyway.
I know it wouldn't - thats why I was less stressed about the deal than others. We are about to learn what was easy to learn - that a customs border with 10k trucks a day passing in each direction is not a functioning border.
Except the customs border isn't in one place, its dispersed across the nation.
Even my hometown a five hour drive from Dover will be part of the border.
Yes, so the solution to 10k trucks a day through Calais is send them somewhere else? Of course longer sea crossings have a far lower capacity so unless you have a flotilla of RoRo ships on standby that won't work either.
And what do you mean "dispersed across the nation"? We might want have dispersed pretend border checks elsewhere than the port. The French won't. Its always been their hard border that we insist they have to have that fucks us over.
Haven't we heard for years the French and Europeans were ready for No Deal? 🤔
We are leaving the Single Market. We can't time it based on the actions or inactions of the French, time to get on with it.
They are ready for no deal. They will process trucks like any other external EU border. Completely fucks us but thats what we've asked them to do.
So if they're ready its not going to change. Time to get on with it surely?
It's already happened! Industry is working on No Deal terms hence trying to ram as much stuff in as they can before the border shuts down on 1st January
Good. So since its already happened its time to move on with life and not ask for an extension only to make it happen all over again. Agreed?
Sure - as the EU and the UK parliaments have both shut down for Christmas its a moot point.
We will ask for a deal once we get into January and find the Shock News that without a customs union our border with France is non-functional.
I mean, there's obvious limitations to the data on the Official UK Government Coronavirus Dashboard but here are the figures from the Official UK government Coronavirus Dashboard.
Starmer has basically decided going for extension means political suicide for Labour with Red Wall voters, so he has decided to push for a Deal but otherwise not support any extension and let the PM own No Deal if Boris goes for that
Sure, but it doesn't require much, er, foresight to see that if the option of an extension is closed off, and the EU doesn't accept what the UK is requesting, then the inevitable consequence is No Deal. A wee bit risky for Starmer however he tries to spin it.
Outside the dream world of Tory fanbois there are very few voters who are going to blame Starmer for the inevitable consequences of no deal Brexit!
A cheering thought. Even on advertised vaccine efficacy rates, we must only be a few shopping days away from a vaccine recipient coming down with Bastard COVID. I’m sure the tabloids can be trusted to treat this event with their standard calm analysis and sensitivity.
Starmer has basically decided going for extension means political suicide for Labour with Red Wall voters, so he has decided to push for a Deal but otherwise not support any extension and let the PM own No Deal if Boris goes for that
Sure, but it doesn't require much, er, foresight to see that if the option of an extension is closed off, and the EU doesn't accept what the UK is requesting, then the inevitable consequence is No Deal. A wee bit risky for Starmer however he tries to spin it.
Outside the dream world of Tory fanbois there are very few voters who are going to blame Starmer for the inevitable consequences of no deal Brexit!
Maybe not yet, but I'd be more careful of that , in his position.
An apparently clear explainer of the esoteric fish negotiations.
The issue, it seems to me, is that fish quotas are the sole Brexit win for the UK. We might say, the EU should obviously concede on fish quotas, given almost everything else is downside for the UK. The EU and members are not motivated to protect the UK from the consequences of its decision to leave the European Union. That includes fish. If their fishermen are put out of business due to reduced quotas, the EU and members have no interest in a UK offer of a temporary and token access.
From the UK's PoV, No Deal will allow the fish quota Brexit win to be retained. It also makes the already huge Brexit losses even more massive. But there is a logic to No Deal.
Incidentally, there won't be a Brexit extension. Not happening. That ship sailed in the summer, captained enthusiastically by Boris Johnson and his motley crew.
Starmer has basically decided going for extension means political suicide for Labour with Red Wall voters, so he has decided to push for a Deal but otherwise not support any extension and let the PM own No Deal if Boris goes for that
Sure, but it doesn't require much, er, foresight to see that if the option of an extension is closed off, and the EU doesn't accept what the UK is requesting, then the inevitable consequence is No Deal. A wee bit risky for Starmer however he tries to spin it.
Starmer will just blame the Government.
LOTO doesn't own anything. Unless they prevent the Government from acting 2017-19 style.
Yup. His second notable mistake after the handling of the Corbyn dispute, in what's been a good year for him overall. He better hope that a deal at least partially protects him from the fallout.
I disagree. if there is an extension to the transition period Starmer is going to attack Johnson mercilessly for failing to deliver, thus sending a message to red-wallers and others that his Brexit-blocking days are over.
LD revival in that case.
Starmer can easily afford a LD revival in Hampstead, Camden, Islington, Manchester, Oxford and Cambridge etc as Labour will easily still win most of those seats anyway.
What he cannot afford is for Labour to lose Red Wall voters to the Tories again by being seen to block full delivery of Brexit, hence his position of no extension to the transition period but get the Deal done first to avoid No Deal
The thing I can't call is prospects of a LibDem revival in Leave areas. I really don't know.
Well, someone keeps putting a graph on PB almost every day of cases in the four nations that shows a marked disparity between Scotrland and the others.
Malmesbury's data is based on testing, but there's less testing in Scotland.
ONS data doesn't depend upon testing numbers.
Scotland having fewer cases is like Trump's "if we do fewer tests we'll have fewer cases".
There are two different testing agencies in Scotland - UK and SG. This came up yesterday when some other PBers were discussing the otherwise anomalous numbers being tested. Is this allowed for?
Also the figs for hospital admissions (as good an indicator as any) show a markedly different pocture - steady decline since late October. much the same as the graph I was talking about, allowing for the two week lag from infection (less for testing obvs).
Yup. His second notable mistake after the handling of the Corbyn dispute, in what's been a good year for him overall. He better hope that a deal at least partially protects him from the fallout.
I disagree. if there is an extension to the transition period Starmer is going to attack Johnson mercilessly for failing to deliver, thus sending a message to red-wallers and others that his Brexit-blocking days are over.
I think that's right. Starmer can't win on Brexit whatever he says, as the LP found out at last year's election. So Brexit is done and dusted - but not the trade deal.
But he can win on government incompetence, and that will be his attack line:
"You've had four and a half years to reach a deal with the EU on the terms of trade, having left the EU , but even now, right at the last minute, you're having to ask for an extension to avoid an unacceptable no deal. The incompetence of this government beggars belief".
Er, a perfectly understandable reaction to a new plague across The Channel?
So why abandon it so quickly?
Where does it say they abandoned it? I can't see anything on the BBC website to that effect.
They haven't abandoned it. The EU is working on a new protocol which may restore traffic once it is developed and agreed by us. Suspect mandatory negative test will be required - so rapid testing will need to be set up at Dover / the tunnel and drivers tested before travel.
I don't need to explain what impact that will have on traffic flow! Yes they will remove the absolute blockade. And replace it with a process blockade. Happily in 10 days time they can do the rapid Covid tests whilst everyone is stuck in the day long queue to get through customs.
Brilliant. Two birds one stone.
We can get customs clearance done while processing Covid tests.
Absolutely no reason whatsoever to postpone the end of transition now.
We've. Already. Gone. No. Deal.
Not sure why the two birds one stone thing is brilliant though. The impact of day long delays on our supply chain will be brutal. That they can do a covid test whilst people wait for customs isn't a benefit.
If we've already done it then great. Time to adjust and move on.
We were always going to leave the customs union. That was decided five years ago. A deal wouldn't have kept us in the customs union anyway.
I know it wouldn't - thats why I was less stressed about the deal than others. We are about to learn what was easy to learn - that a customs border with 10k trucks a day passing in each direction is not a functioning border.
Except the customs border isn't in one place, its dispersed across the nation.
Even my hometown a five hour drive from Dover will be part of the border.
Yes, so the solution to 10k trucks a day through Calais is send them somewhere else? Of course longer sea crossings have a far lower capacity so unless you have a flotilla of RoRo ships on standby that won't work either.
And what do you mean "dispersed across the nation"? We might want have dispersed pretend border checks elsewhere than the port. The French won't. Its always been their hard border that we insist they have to have that fucks us over.
Haven't we heard for years the French and Europeans were ready for No Deal? 🤔
We are leaving the Single Market. We can't time it based on the actions or inactions of the French, time to get on with it.
They are ready for no deal. They will process trucks like any other external EU border. Completely fucks us but thats what we've asked them to do.
So if they're ready its not going to change. Time to get on with it surely?
It's already happened! Industry is working on No Deal terms hence trying to ram as much stuff in as they can before the border shuts down on 1st January
Good. So since its already happened its time to move on with life and not ask for an extension only to make it happen all over again. Agreed?
Sure - as the EU and the UK parliaments have both shut down for Christmas its a moot point.
We will ask for a deal once we get into January and find the Shock News that without a customs union our border with France is non-functional.
From your logic I see three possible scenarios
1. You're wrong, we can cope without a customs union, so we will be fine. 2. You're right, we don't have a deal and it is a disaster so we need to go back for a customs union request. 3. You're right, we do get a deal, but since the deal lacks a customs union it is a disaster so we need to go back to the drawing board and get a new deal.
Does that seem a fair summary? If so why does deal or no deal matter?
Yup. His second notable mistake after the handling of the Corbyn dispute, in what's been a good year for him overall. He better hope that a deal at least partially protects him from the fallout.
I disagree. if there is an extension to the transition period Starmer is going to attack Johnson mercilessly for failing to deliver, thus sending a message to red-wallers and others that his Brexit-blocking days are over.
LD revival in that case.
Starmer can easily afford a LD revival in Hampstead, Camden, Islington, Manchester, Oxford and Cambridge etc as Labour will easily still win most of those seats anyway.
What he cannot afford is for Labour to lose Red Wall voters again by being seen to block full delivery of Brexit, hence his position of no extension to the transition period but get the Deal done first to avoid No Deal
I don't agree at all. If Starmer starts to be seen not only as maintaining a hands-off approach to Brexit, but positively championing its acceleration, he'll start to lose huge swathes of voters in all sorts of places all over the country. It's easy to forget because of press coverage, but the majority have been against Brexit since 2017. Many of those will tolerate but never endorse.
Blair won a majority in 2005 with just 36% of the vote as he won the working class Red Wall and the Midlands and safe Labour seats despite heavy loss of upper middle class metropolitan latte sipping urban voters to the LDs in the latter over Iraq, Corbyn failed to win even with 40% of the vote in 2017 as his biggest gains were in safe Labour seats anyway and Corbyn was trounced in 2019 after losing the Red Wall as Labour was seen as being outright opposed to Brexit.
The Midlands and Northern Red Wall seats are Starmer's equivalent of the MidWest swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania Biden won back to become President. Under FPTP the Red Wall is what he has to win back to get to No 10, he needs to win back working class Leave voting ex Labour voters in the Red Wall, he can afford to lose a few latte sipping diehard Remainers back to the LDs in wealthy middle class metropolitan areas
Starmer has basically decided going for extension means political suicide for Labour with Red Wall voters, so he has decided to push for a Deal but otherwise not support any extension and let the PM own No Deal if Boris goes for that
Sure, but it doesn't require much, er, foresight to see that if the option of an extension is closed off, and the EU doesn't accept what the UK is requesting, then the inevitable consequence is No Deal. A wee bit risky for Starmer however he tries to spin it.
Outside the dream world of Tory fanbois there are very few voters who are going to blame Starmer for the inevitable consequences of no deal Brexit!
Maybe not yet, but I'd be more careful of that , in his position.
FFS the PM has a majority of 80 and is the one negotiating. It is pathetic of anyone, regardless of their views on Brexit, to give any of the responsibility for Brexit to anyone bar the PM.
I mean, there's obvious limitations to the data on the Official UK Government Coronavirus Dashboard but here are the figures from the Official UK government Coronavirus Dashboard.
Cue Agent Pee going on a ranting rampage against the pro Nat Official UK Government Coronavirus Dashboard.
Starmer has basically decided going for extension means political suicide for Labour with Red Wall voters, so he has decided to push for a Deal but otherwise not support any extension and let the PM own No Deal if Boris goes for that
Sure, but it doesn't require much, er, foresight to see that if the option of an extension is closed off, and the EU doesn't accept what the UK is requesting, then the inevitable consequence is No Deal. A wee bit risky for Starmer however he tries to spin it.
Outside the dream world of Tory fanbois there are very few voters who are going to blame Starmer for the inevitable consequences of no deal Brexit!
Maybe not yet, but I'd be more careful of that , in his position.
FFS the PM has a majority of 80 and is the one negotiating. It is pathetic of anyone, regardless of their views on Brexit, to give any of the responsibility for Brexit to anyone bar the PM.
I agree with you on the moral principle, but not on the public and political risks.
I mean, there's obvious limitations to the data on the Official UK Government Coronavirus Dashboard but here are the figures from the Official UK government Coronavirus Dashboard.
Cue Agent Pee going on a ranting rampage against the pro Nat Official UK Government Coronavirus Dashboard.
The blokey who's letter Agent P has unquestioningly reproduced wibbling on about the ONS statistics has read them wrong as well. The ONS shows lower estimated infections in Scotland
Wow - he just gave Boris political cover for a No Deal Brexit. A brave choice...
And just gutted his ‘we luv Scotland but we’ll tell you when you’re allowed a disruptive referendum’ schtick.
He's basically just a Boris tribute act at this point. Soon he'll start saying 'Crikey!' and cancelling his bulk purchases of industrial-strength hair gel.
Well, someone keeps putting a graph on PB almost every day of cases in the four nations that shows a marked disparity between Scotrland and the others.
Malmesbury's data is based on testing, but there's less testing in Scotland.
ONS data doesn't depend upon testing numbers.
Scotland having fewer cases is like Trump's "if we do fewer tests we'll have fewer cases".
The ONS data says Scotland has a lower infection rate. The letter writer is wrong.
Yup. His second notable mistake after the handling of the Corbyn dispute, in what's been a good year for him overall. He better hope that a deal at least partially protects him from the fallout.
I disagree. if there is an extension to the transition period Starmer is going to attack Johnson mercilessly for failing to deliver, thus sending a message to red-wallers and others that his Brexit-blocking days are over.
I think that's right. Starmer can't win on Brexit whatever he says, as the LP found out at last year's election. So Brexit is done and dusted - but not the trade deal.
But he can win on government incompetence, and that will be his attack line:
"You've had four and a half years to reach a deal with the EU on the terms of trade, having left the EU , but even now, right at the last minute, you're having to ask for an extension to avoid an unacceptable no deal. The incompetence of this government beggars belief".
Cabinet Office response to petition seeking extension of transition period: "The transition period ends on 31 December 2020. This is a matter of UK law." My response to Cabinet office response I've noticed that the present Govt (a) shows little respect for the law, and (b) is willing unilaterally to change UK law (e.g. on morning of 20th Dec. 2020).
Yup. His second notable mistake after the handling of the Corbyn dispute, in what's been a good year for him overall. He better hope that a deal at least partially protects him from the fallout.
I disagree. if there is an extension to the transition period Starmer is going to attack Johnson mercilessly for failing to deliver, thus sending a message to red-wallers and others that his Brexit-blocking days are over.
LD revival in that case.
Starmer can easily afford a LD revival in Hampstead, Camden, Islington, Manchester, Oxford and Cambridge etc as Labour will easily still win most of those seats anyway.
What he cannot afford is for Labour to lose Red Wall voters again by being seen to block full delivery of Brexit, hence his position of no extension to the transition period but get the Deal done first to avoid No Deal
I don't agree at all. If Starmer starts to be seen not only as maintaining a hands-off approach to Brexit, but positively championing its acceleration, he'll start to lose huge swathes of voters in all sorts of places all over the country. It's easy to forget because of press coverage, but the majority have been against Brexit since 2017. Many of those will tolerate but never endorse.
Disagree with you on this. Let's not repeat the substance of the Benn Act mistake which served up the election on a plate to Johnson. He and the Tories own Brexit. They promised a deal. If he is up against the wire now - faced with a choice of agreeing a deal his headbangers won't like, or an extension, or no deal - do NOT help him out.
"You said you'd get a deal by year end. Get a deal by year end." - should be the line. End of.
Johnson has been utterly ruthless in his use of Brexit to fuck over everyone else. Time to reciprocate.
Yup. His second notable mistake after the handling of the Corbyn dispute, in what's been a good year for him overall. He better hope that a deal at least partially protects him from the fallout.
I disagree. if there is an extension to the transition period Starmer is going to attack Johnson mercilessly for failing to deliver, thus sending a message to red-wallers and others that his Brexit-blocking days are over.
LD revival in that case.
Starmer can easily afford a LD revival in Hampstead, Camden, Islington, Manchester, Oxford and Cambridge etc as Labour will easily still win most of those seats anyway.
What he cannot afford is for Labour to lose Red Wall voters again by being seen to block full delivery of Brexit, hence his position of no extension to the transition period but get the Deal done first to avoid No Deal
I don't agree at all. If Starmer starts to be seen not only as maintaining a hands-off approach to Brexit, but positively championing its acceleration, he'll start to lose huge swathes of voters in all sorts of places all over the country. It's easy to forget because of press coverage, but the majority have been against Brexit since 2017. Many of those will tolerate but never endorse.
Blair won a majority in 2005 with just 36% of the vote as he won the working class Red Wall and the Midlands and safe Labour seats despite heavy loss of upper middle class metropolitan latte sipping urban voters to the LDs in the latter over Iraq, Corbyn failed to win even with 40% of the vote in 2017 as his biggest gains were in safe Labour seats anyway and Corbyn was trounced in 2019 after losing the Red Wall as Labour was seen as being outright opposed to Brexit.
The Midlands and Northern Red Wall seats are Starmer's equivalent of the MidWest swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania Biden won back to become President. Under FPTP the Red Wall is what he has to win back to get to No 10, he needs to win back working class Leave voting ex Labour voters in the Red Wall, he can afford to lose a few latte sipping diehard Remainers back to the LDs in wealthy middle class metropolitan areas
The problem is that Brexit is a keystone, zero-sum identity issue that cuts both ways. Biden didn't have to deal with anything like that. Starmer can lose huge support and gain other support over it, but without securing the liberal base that broadly backed Remain not only in cities but also elsewhere first, he'll lose.
Usual London Labour bollox. They have always been against Scotland having a say. PS: I burst some ribs laughing at "passionately" , given they are a bunch of boring twats and would not recognise passion if it hit them in the face. Labour are irrelevant in Scotland and it shows when they need to dig up Brown to lead the pygmies.
Starmer has basically decided going for extension means political suicide for Labour with Red Wall voters, so he has decided to push for a Deal but otherwise not support any extension and let the PM own No Deal if Boris goes for that
Sure, but it doesn't require much, er, foresight to see that if the option of an extension is closed off, and the EU doesn't accept what the UK is requesting, then the inevitable consequence is No Deal. A wee bit risky for Starmer however he tries to spin it.
Outside the dream world of Tory fanbois there are very few voters who are going to blame Starmer for the inevitable consequences of no deal Brexit!
Agreed.
But n/a because Johnson won't do WTO Brexit.
His 2 real world choices are (i) agree the deal or (ii) agree an extension and keep talking.
Yup. His second notable mistake after the handling of the Corbyn dispute, in what's been a good year for him overall. He better hope that a deal at least partially protects him from the fallout.
I disagree. if there is an extension to the transition period Starmer is going to attack Johnson mercilessly for failing to deliver, thus sending a message to red-wallers and others that his Brexit-blocking days are over.
LD revival in that case.
Starmer can easily afford a LD revival in Hampstead, Camden, Islington, Manchester, Oxford and Cambridge etc as Labour will easily still win most of those seats anyway.
What he cannot afford is for Labour to lose Red Wall voters again by being seen to block full delivery of Brexit, hence his position of no extension to the transition period but get the Deal done first to avoid No Deal
I don't agree at all. If Starmer starts to be seen not only as maintaining a hands-off approach to Brexit, but positively championing its acceleration, he'll start to lose huge swathes of voters in all sorts of places all over the country. It's easy to forget because of press coverage, but the majority have been against Brexit since 2017. Many of those will tolerate but never endorse.
Blair won a majority in 2005 with just 36% of the vote as he won the working class Red Wall and the Midlands and safe Labour seats despite heavy loss of upper middle class metropolitan latte sipping urban voters to the LDs in the latter over Iraq, Corbyn failed to win even with 40% of the vote in 2017 as his biggest gains were in safe Labour seats anyway and Corbyn was trounced in 2019 after losing the Red Wall as Labour was seen as being outright opposed to Brexit.
The Midlands and Northern Red Wall seats are Starmer's equivalent of the MidWest swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania Biden won back to become President. Under FPTP the Red Wall is what he has to win back to get to No 10, he needs to win back working class Leave voting ex Labour voters in the Red Wall, he can afford to lose a few latte sipping diehard Remainers back to the LDs in wealthy middle class metropolitan areas
I think you're just projecting your own wish casting into this so-called analysis. And you are, in the process, straining for fern seed a mile away and missing the bloody great elephant standing straight in front of you.
I want devolution and social justice to be the hallmarks of the next Labour government.
Very Blair.
Yes except that Blair was also massively pro EU and at the time we were members. Now Scotland, which never voted for Brexit, finds itself plunged into the Johnson right-wing shitshow.
The legal argument for a second independence referendum appears compelling because of the constitutional paradigm shift caused by Brexit. It's incredibly undemocratic and, of course, entirely duplicitous of Labour to ignore this. They're only doing it because they know they would never win power again if they don't regain Scottish MP's in Westminster.
It's shit.
And I write that as someone who joined Labour earlier this year when Corbyn was booted out. I shall probably cut up my membership card and send it back.
I generally quite like Keir Starmer but he sure as hell has made some shit decisions. It's partly because of him that we got the Carl Beech fiasco.
I agree with you Rose. It was car crash telly watching a stumbling Starmer trying to defend it under questions.
“There can’t be a second ref because we are in the middle of covid pandemic” should never have got out of the war gaming room and before the camera’s.
At this moment in time Boris has far better business managers around him than Starmer has. It really really shows.
Based on the coronavirus dashboard they are around half.
Based on the ONS data they are slightly less.
Neither of them show them as more. Agent P once again stands for Agent made up Pish. A little less credulousness before eagerly reposting attacks would be good for you.
On the earlier debate on here about the PM's draconian announcement on Saturday, it seems to me that there are two separate, though interrelated, issues.
1. The Tier 4 announcement in response to the mutant strain - no big complaints here about the timeline, given the NERVTAG minutes.
2. The changed advice about Xmas arrangements across the country. This is where Boris has failed abysmally. If you look at the case data, it's clear that cases started rising again quite rapidly from 6/7 December, just a few days after the end of the 'lockdown'. It was certainly clear from around 10 December that the idea of a 5-day Xmas extended bubble was sheer madness, regardless of the mutant strain. So, as Starmer said, the PM should have rowed back on the Xmas plans much earlier, around a fortnight before Xmas.
Starmer has basically decided going for extension means political suicide for Labour with Red Wall voters, so he has decided to push for a Deal but otherwise not support any extension and let the PM own No Deal if Boris goes for that
Sure, but it doesn't require much, er, foresight to see that if the option of an extension is closed off, and the EU doesn't accept what the UK is requesting, then the inevitable consequence is No Deal. A wee bit risky for Starmer however he tries to spin it.
Outside the dream world of Tory fanbois there are very few voters who are going to blame Starmer for the inevitable consequences of no deal Brexit!
Agreed.
But n/a because Johnson won't do WTO Brexit.
His 2 real world choices are (i) agree the deal or (ii) agree an extension and keep talking.
(ii) is not an option.
WTO is more likely than (ii)
But even (i) lacks a Customs Union if that's what you're worried about.
I want devolution and social justice to be the hallmarks of the next Labour government.
Very Blair.
Yes except that Blair was also massively pro EU and at the time we were members. Now Scotland, which never voted for Brexit, finds itself plunged into the Johnson right-wing shitshow.
The legal argument for a second independence referendum appears compelling because of the constitutional paradigm shift caused by Brexit. It's incredibly undemocratic and, of course, entirely duplicitous of Labour to ignore this. They're only doing it because they know they would never win power again if they don't regain Scottish MP's in Westminster.
It's shit.
And I write that as someone who joined Labour earlier this year when Corbyn was booted out. I shall probably cut up my membership card and send it back.
I generally quite like Keir Starmer but he sure as hell has made some shit decisions. It's partly because of him that we got the Carl Beech fiasco.
I agree with you Rose. It was car crash telly watching a stumbling Starmer trying to defend it under questions.
“There can’t be a second ref because we are in the middle of covid pandemic” should never have got out of the war gaming room and before the camera’s.
At this moment in time Boris has far better business managers around him than Starmer has. It really really shows.
And where is this alternate universe of which you speak?
Unionist desperation knows no bounds, tag team of the great clunking duffer and Bozo the Clown, independence will be at short odds for sure.
Seems you are going to have a longer wait for indy2 with Brown and Starmer teaming up and refusing to support it through the HOC
You seem to have got over your recent ‘blocking a referendum would be undemocratic’ spasm. Can we now expect you to participate in HYUFD’s baton wielding B Specials for the Union?
Yup. His second notable mistake after the handling of the Corbyn dispute, in what's been a good year for him overall. He better hope that a deal at least partially protects him from the fallout.
I disagree. if there is an extension to the transition period Starmer is going to attack Johnson mercilessly for failing to deliver, thus sending a message to red-wallers and others that his Brexit-blocking days are over.
LD revival in that case.
Starmer can easily afford a LD revival in Hampstead, Camden, Islington, Manchester, Oxford and Cambridge etc as Labour will easily still win most of those seats anyway.
What he cannot afford is for Labour to lose Red Wall voters again by being seen to block full delivery of Brexit, hence his position of no extension to the transition period but get the Deal done first to avoid No Deal
I don't agree at all. If Starmer starts to be seen not only as maintaining a hands-off approach to Brexit, but positively championing its acceleration, he'll start to lose huge swathes of voters in all sorts of places all over the country. It's easy to forget because of press coverage, but the majority have been against Brexit since 2017. Many of those will tolerate but never endorse.
Disagree with you on this. Let's not repeat the substance of the Benn Act mistake which served up the election on a plate to Johnson. He and the Tories own Brexit. They promised a deal. If he is up against the wire now - faced with a choice of agreeing a deal his headbangers won't like, or an extension, or no deal - do NOT help him out.
"You said you'd get a deal by year end. Get a deal by year end." - should be the line. End of.
Johnson has been utterly ruthless in his use of Brexit to fuck over everyone else. Time to reciprocate.
Also, the dynamics of a hung parliament are different to those of an 80 majority. The Benn act didn't play out well, but it delayed the damage for a year and was a reasonable desperate punt at the time. (I wonder what the government would have done if it hadn't been in place?)
I wish that what's likely to happen next could be stopped. I despair at the attitude of those cutting out our national business arrangements with the casualness of a surgeon wondering "What happens if I take out this squelchy body part from my patient's chest? If it goes wrong, I can put it back tomorrow." But only one man can stop this now and he's an idiot.
Electoral defeat leads to impotence. That's why winning matters.
Under the last Labour government child poverty fell by 150,000 in Scotland. But under the SNP, child poverty has risen sharply and is forecast to reach one in three Scottish children by 2030. And I’m afraid it’s the same story on public health. Life expectancy in Scotland is now the lowest in Western Europe – with Scottish men in the poorest areas expected to die 13 years before those in least deprived areas.
Finally, it's time to attack the SNP on policy. Now Independence is neutralised we can re-build.
What comic did you read that one in then. From that mince I can presume you have never been to Scotland in your cream puff and know the square root of nothing regarding the arse London Labour made of running Scotland. Also if you look at the life expectency in the poorest English areas you will find it is little different you gibbering halfwitted cretinous numpty. Take your London Labour Party commie claptrap and stick it up your jacksie.
Unionist desperation knows no bounds, tag team of the great clunking duffer and Bozo the Clown, independence will be at short odds for sure.
Seems you are going to have a longer wait for indy2 with Brown and Starmer teaming up and refusing to support it through the HOC
You seem to have got over your recent ‘blocking a referendum would be undemocratic’ spasm. Can we now expect you to participate in HYUFD’s baton wielding B Specials for the Union?
I don't think indyref2 is legally dependent on a House of Commons mandate. If you read the legal arguments for a referendum, regardless of what Westminster thinks, it seems reasonably strong.
Before anyone jumps in with 'that's what it says in law' I would point you to some of the complex arguments being advanced which may well by-pass Westminster.
Unionist desperation knows no bounds, tag team of the great clunking duffer and Bozo the Clown, independence will be at short odds for sure.
Seems you are going to have a longer wait for indy2 with Brown and Starmer teaming up and refusing to support it through the HOC
You seem to have got over your recent ‘blocking a referendum would be undemocratic’ spasm. Can we now expect you to participate in HYUFD’s baton wielding B Specials for the Union?
Anyone who denies the right of self determination to the Scots is an enemy of democracy and democracy is more important than party politics or the future of the union.
Comments
Finally, it's time to attack the SNP on policy. Now Independence is neutralised we can re-build.
Not sure why the two birds one stone thing is brilliant though. The impact of day long delays on our supply chain will be brutal. That they can do a covid test whilst people wait for customs isn't a benefit.
But you don't really need to await scientic foolproofing, the massive rise in infection rates in areas where the mutant is known to exist is perfectly adequate evidence for the vast majority of sane people.
Very Blair.
We were always going to leave the customs union. That was decided five years ago. A deal wouldn't have kept us in the customs union anyway.
The legal argument for a second independence referendum appears compelling because of the constitutional paradigm shift caused by Brexit. It's incredibly undemocratic and, of course, entirely duplicitous of Labour to ignore this. They're only doing it because they know they would never win power again if they don't regain Scottish MP's in Westminster.
It's shit.
And I write that as someone who joined Labour earlier this year when Corbyn was booted out. I shall probably cut up my membership card and send it back.
I generally quite like Keir Starmer but he sure as hell has made some shit decisions. It's partly because of him that we got the Carl Beech fiasco.
So its irrelevant gibberish. Keir isn't going to be 2021 PM. It is pre-election virtue signalling not a promise not to work with the SNP if they're kingmakers in 2024.
There can be only one.
I can't see a single good reason to kick the can that doesn't entail wishing something magical will come up in the meantime that will make our exit of the customs union go away. We're leaving. We're already there. Its done. Why go through this twice?
Even my hometown a five hour drive from Dover will be part of the border.
Especially relative to the two parties positions a decade ago.
And what do you mean "dispersed across the nation"? We might want have dispersed pretend border checks elsewhere than the port. The French won't. Its always been their hard border that we insist they have to have that fucks us over.
Am poised to be outraged.
There aren't many Warrington-Calais or even Ireland direct routes.
But on the other hand for North Wales and Northwest England its prime location for processing vehicles. Intersection of M6, M56, M62, the Manchester Ship Canal, close to Liverpool, Manchester, easy access to Wales and Ireland.
Logical position to process vehicles for our region and demonstrates that they don't all have to be (and won't all be) processed in Kent.
Starmer has basically decided going for extension means political suicide for Labour with Red Wall voters, so he has decided to push for a Deal but otherwise not support any extension and let the PM own No Deal if Boris goes for that
We are leaving the Single Market. We can't time it based on the actions or inactions of the French, time to get on with it.
What he cannot afford is for Labour to lose Red Wall voters to the Tories again by being seen to block full delivery of Brexit, hence his position of no extension to the transition period but get the Deal done first to avoid No Deal
ONS data doesn't depend upon testing numbers.
Scotland having fewer cases is like Trump's "if we do fewer tests we'll have fewer cases".
LOTO doesn't own anything. Unless they prevent the Government from acting 2017-19 style.
We will ask for a deal once we get into January and find the Shock News that without a customs union our border with France is non-functional.
Even on advertised vaccine efficacy rates, we must only be a few shopping days away from a vaccine recipient coming down with Bastard COVID. I’m sure the tabloids can be trusted to treat this event with their standard calm analysis and sensitivity.
The issue, it seems to me, is that fish quotas are the sole Brexit win for the UK. We might say, the EU should obviously concede on fish quotas, given almost everything else is downside for the UK. The EU and members are not motivated to protect the UK from the consequences of its decision to leave the European Union. That includes fish. If their fishermen are put out of business due to reduced quotas, the EU and members have no interest in a UK offer of a temporary and token access.
From the UK's PoV, No Deal will allow the fish quota Brexit win to be retained. It also makes the already huge Brexit losses even more massive. But there is a logic to No Deal.
Incidentally, there won't be a Brexit extension. Not happening. That ship sailed in the summer, captained enthusiastically by Boris Johnson and his motley crew.
https://twitter.com/john_lichfield/status/1340674779834150912
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26#health
Also the figs for hospital admissions (as good an indicator as any) show a markedly different pocture - steady decline since late October. much the same as the graph I was talking about, allowing for the two week lag from infection (less for testing obvs).
But he can win on government incompetence, and that will be his attack line:
"You've had four and a half years to reach a deal with the EU on the terms of trade, having left the EU , but even now, right at the last minute, you're having to ask for an extension to avoid an unacceptable no deal. The incompetence of this government beggars belief".
1. You're wrong, we can cope without a customs union, so we will be fine.
2. You're right, we don't have a deal and it is a disaster so we need to go back for a customs union request.
3. You're right, we do get a deal, but since the deal lacks a customs union it is a disaster so we need to go back to the drawing board and get a new deal.
Does that seem a fair summary? If so why does deal or no deal matter?
The Midlands and Northern Red Wall seats are Starmer's equivalent of the MidWest swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania Biden won back to become President. Under FPTP the Red Wall is what he has to win back to get to No 10, he needs to win back working class Leave voting ex Labour voters in the Red Wall, he can afford to lose a few latte sipping diehard Remainers back to the LDs in wealthy middle class metropolitan areas
My response to Cabinet office response I've noticed that the present Govt (a) shows little respect for the law, and (b) is willing unilaterally to change UK law (e.g. on morning of 20th Dec. 2020).
"You said you'd get a deal by year end. Get a deal by year end." - should be the line. End of.
Johnson has been utterly ruthless in his use of Brexit to fuck over everyone else. Time to reciprocate.
French minister says protocol at European level will be set up in the coming hours so traffic flows can resume
PS: I burst some ribs laughing at "passionately" , given they are a bunch of boring twats and would not recognise passion if it hit them in the face. Labour are irrelevant in Scotland and it shows when they need to dig up Brown to lead the pygmies.
But n/a because Johnson won't do WTO Brexit.
His 2 real world choices are (i) agree the deal or (ii) agree an extension and keep talking.
In 2005 Labour won 41 Scottish seats
In 2019 Labour won 1 Scottish seat
“There can’t be a second ref because we are in the middle of covid pandemic” should never have got out of the war gaming room and before the camera’s.
At this moment in time Boris has far better business managers around him than Starmer has. It really really shows.
Based on the ONS data they are slightly less.
Neither of them show them as more. Agent P once again stands for Agent made up Pish. A little less credulousness before eagerly reposting attacks would be good for you.
1. The Tier 4 announcement in response to the mutant strain - no big complaints here about the timeline, given the NERVTAG minutes.
2. The changed advice about Xmas arrangements across the country. This is where Boris has failed abysmally. If you look at the case data, it's clear that cases started rising again quite rapidly from 6/7 December, just a few days after the end of the 'lockdown'. It was certainly clear from around 10 December that the idea of a 5-day Xmas extended bubble was sheer madness, regardless of the mutant strain. So, as Starmer said, the PM should have rowed back on the Xmas plans much earlier, around a fortnight before Xmas.
WTO is more likely than (ii)
But even (i) lacks a Customs Union if that's what you're worried about.
I wish that what's likely to happen next could be stopped. I despair at the attitude of those cutting out our national business arrangements with the casualness of a surgeon wondering "What happens if I take out this squelchy body part from my patient's chest? If it goes wrong, I can put it back tomorrow." But only one man can stop this now and he's an idiot.
Electoral defeat leads to impotence. That's why winning matters.
Also if you look at the life expectency in the poorest English areas you will find it is little different you gibbering halfwitted cretinous numpty.
Take your London Labour Party commie claptrap and stick it up your jacksie.
Before anyone jumps in with 'that's what it says in law' I would point you to some of the complex arguments being advanced which may well by-pass Westminster.