Liz Truss moves from a 100/1 shot for next PM to 33/1 in just two weeks – politicalbetting.com
Options
Comments
-
That would be in its interest.rottenborough said:
iirc virus have a tendency to mutate to more infectious but less fatal.another_richard said:
More infectious but less dangerous wouldn't be a bad combination.rottenborough said:
More infectious is a better way of describing this than more virulent imho.kle4 said:
Bad news, but almost convenient for him politically in giving him cover with the backbenchers and headlines he seems terrified of, without saying it is all the public's fault for being irresponsible.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Though the vulnerable would have to be told to shield while its spreading.
0 -
Well I was among the first to point out the uselessness of Liam Fox.Carnyx said:
[deleted - just too angry that copying exactly the same as before is aeen as a truimph after years and years of sitting on their collective thumbs]another_richard said:
Yet we were continually told on PB that replicating the EU trade deals would be impossible.Cyclefree said:
It has come to something when maintaining the trading status quo, a status quo achieved by EU not British negotiators, with a number of countries is seen as some sort of major achievement. Still, we're in the land of the blind these days so she deserves one small cheer for doing what Liam Fox so dismally failed to do. She did not distinguish herself as Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary, however.Morris_Dancer said:Truss appears to have done well with the trade agreements. However, she needs to continue that momentum (or do well in a new role) for her odds and leadership prospects to improve further.
Not to mention that replicating those deals is only the first step - you can then look to build and improve upon them.
Its not as if we need to worry about the interests of olive oil producers any more for example.
Why his uselessness was tolerated for so long by the government and Conservative party in general is something I'm curious about.0 -
Why??? Add a tier 4 (shops closed) and tier 5 (March lockdown) and apply according to need.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Wrong, the entire UK should lock down together.another_richard said:
So what's your view on Burnham, Jarvis etc wanting to reduce current restrictions in northern England ?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Giving every home and business access to FFTP is not something you can just do overnight, but there is serious investment from multiple companies now, and in most cases they are very keen to expand their footprint not just upgrade existing customers. Just today Openreach announced they are hiring another 5,000 engineers next year to deploy FTTP.CorrectHorseBattery said:On this Government's record we can expect very few houses to be built, FTTP coverage to be low and the economy to be in a mess.
Such is the record of a Government that under-delivers on every measure.
1 -
And that is the nature of the virus causing chaos in many nationsIanB2 said:
How can anyone swing toward the government when no-one knows where it is standing and where it is standing now won’t be where it is standing tomorrow?tlg86 said:
Might be wishful thinking on my part, but I get the sense that people might be having second thoughts about Christmas. Think of it like a late swing back to the government as election day approaches.MaxPB said:Time to cancel this 5 day free pass. It's going to result in so many unnecessary hospitalisations and deaths.
0 -
Me too.kle4 said:
Is it? They've always made me wait at least 5-10 minutes.TheScreamingEagles said:
But the flu shot doesn't come with a 15 minute waiting period for reactions.turbotubbs said:
Tbf they do that at our surgery for the flu shot.TheScreamingEagles said:
They genuinely thought every GP surgery was homogenous (on a physical building level) which is one of the logistical issues, I mean who thinks having a bunch of OAPs stood outside surgeries in the winter would be a good idea?FrancisUrquhart said:
The overpromise was totally unnecessary. I don't know why they haven't learned yet, whatever somebody like PHE tell them, build in a sizeable delay / margin for error. At best, you say, wow amazing work, we smashed it. At worse, you meet your target.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sorry to hear that, I did mention I had heard stuff like this before.Benpointer said:Vaccine update:
Mrs P's 88 year old father, who was given an appointment for his first Covid shot next Tuesday, was called by the GP practice today and told the appointment was going to be rearranged for after Christmas, date tbc. ☹️
Supply issues apparently. I hope it's not a sign of things to come.
There's also this story in The Times.
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1339873230883045377
The government are likely to have overpromised and underdelivered once again.
The irony is that the government's approach to vaccine was genuinely world beating.
Its called doing a RyanAir. Never late, because they build in a sizeable delay to every journey to the quoted travel time.
With flu shots it is in and out.0 -
It's in Johnson's nature to be optimistic and upbeat. He was like that as Mayor of London and he was like that before Covid. He praises the country and the people to the skies - fair enough, most of the time a bit of inspiration doesn't go amiss. Back in July, he wanted people "cheek by jowl" at Christmas.rottenborough said:
What an f*ing mess. Yet again Johnson and co have made an epic balls up.MaxPB said:Time to cancel this 5 day free pass. It's going to result in so many unnecessary hospitalisations and deaths.
He understands the symbolic nature of Christmas in terms of it being an oasis of normality and hope in an ocean of bad news and anxiety. He wanted to save as much of that as possible - to give people something for which to aspire, to be hopeful, to be optimistic because that's the kind of Britain he wants to lead - upbeat, confident, optimistic.
Instead, he's got a pandemic and millions are frightened, frustrated and worried for the future. Yes, he can trumpet a vaccine all he wants but for the vast majority it's meaningless as they won't be getting it any time soon - 10 million vaccinated by Christmas anyone?
In his desire to keep spirits up, he panders - he treats us like children endlessly promising jam tomorrow if we keep the faith. He's not alone - many other leaders have played that game. Perhaps Merkel is one of the few who hasn't.
The problem is when the hope turns out to be a chimera - when he has to be "honest" and tell his audience what they don't want to hear - his limitations as a Prime Minister become painfully evident. He doesn't want to be the PM who lost Christmas - it would be a millstone round his political career. Quite apart from anything else, why would anyone believe a syllable he utters ever again?
I'll be honest - Theresa May, for all her flaws, would have done this so much better.5 -
They just cut the FTTP budget to hit the hardest to reach areas.glw said:
Giving every home and business access to FFTP is not something you can just do overnight, but there is serious investment from multiple companies now, and in most cases they are very keen to expand their footprint not just upgrade existing customers. Just today Openreach announced they are hiring another 5,000 engineers next year to deploy FTTP.CorrectHorseBattery said:On this Government's record we can expect very few houses to be built, FTTP coverage to be low and the economy to be in a mess.
Such is the record of a Government that under-delivers on every measure.0 -
Yeah, but only a tendency. They can also go in the same direction in both dimensions.rottenborough said:
iirc virus have a tendency to mutate to more infectious but less fatal.another_richard said:
More infectious but less dangerous wouldn't be a bad combination.rottenborough said:
More infectious is a better way of describing this than more virulent imho.kle4 said:
Bad news, but almost convenient for him politically in giving him cover with the backbenchers and headlines he seems terrified of, without saying it is all the public's fault for being irresponsible.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Though the vulnerable would have to be told to shield while its spreading.0 -
Well, at least it makes a change from months of complaining that he wouldn't allow us to become Sweden.rottenborough said:
What an f*ing mess. Yet again Johnson and co have made an epic balls up.MaxPB said:Time to cancel this 5 day free pass. It's going to result in so many unnecessary hospitalisations and deaths.
1 -
Yep. She would have followed the detail. Maybe decisions would have been slower but there would have been consistency from one day to the next.stodge said:
It's in Johnson's nature to be optimistic and upbeat. He was like that as Mayor of London and he was like that before Covid. He praises the country and the people to the skies - fair enough, most of the time a bit of inspiration doesn't go amiss. Back in July, he wanted people "cheek by jowl" at Christmas.rottenborough said:
What an f*ing mess. Yet again Johnson and co have made an epic balls up.MaxPB said:Time to cancel this 5 day free pass. It's going to result in so many unnecessary hospitalisations and deaths.
He understands the symbolic nature of Christmas in terms of it being an oasis of normality and hope in an ocean of bad news and anxiety. He wanted to save as much of that as possible - to give people something for which to aspire, to be hopeful, to be optimistic because that's the kind of Britain he wants to lead - upbeat, confident, optimistic.
Instead, he's got a pandemic and millions are frightened, frustrated and worried for the future. Yes, he can trumpet a vaccine all he wants but for the vast majority it's meaningless as they won't be getting it any time soon - 10 million vaccinated by Christmas anyone?
In his desire to keep spirits up, he panders - he treats us like children endlessly promising jam tomorrow if we keep the faith. He's not alone - many other leaders have played that game. Perhaps Merkel is one of the few who hasn't.
The problem is when the hope turns out to be a chimera - when he has to be "honest" and tell his audience what they don't want to hear - his limitations as a Prime Minister become painfully evident. He doesn't want to be the PM who lost Christmas - it would be a millstone round his political career. Quite apart from anything else, why would anyone believe a syllable he utters ever again?
I'll be honest - Theresa May, for all her flaws, would have done this so much better.
1 -
Massively convenient for Boris and Sturgeon here.rottenborough said:Xmas u-turn incoming????
0 -
Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.0 -
I was drawing an analogy.IanB2 said:
How can anyone swing toward the government when no-one knows where it is standing and where it is standing now won’t be where it is standing tomorrow?tlg86 said:
Might be wishful thinking on my part, but I get the sense that people might be having second thoughts about Christmas. Think of it like a late swing back to the government as election day approaches.MaxPB said:Time to cancel this 5 day free pass. It's going to result in so many unnecessary hospitalisations and deaths.
0 -
Could restrict travel from the SE...build that wall and make them pay for it!rottenborough said:twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1340051469962252289
0 -
Currently the issue is supply mostly. The vaccine teams are feeling the strain though too.Luckyguy1983 said:
It would be a great shame, considering our centrally organised top down health service model. Poor outcomes for cancer etc. is one thing - not being able to get identical jabs in arms is quite another. If it can't do that, what's it for?IanB2 said:It would be a shame if, after having been first off, we are shown up and overtaken by other countries for dint of their much better organisation.
0 -
Johnson wanted to be PM his whole life. I wonder if he’s enjoying it? He can’t have imagined it would be anything like this. He got the job at exactly the wrong time.1
-
Telegraph reckon they will have done 500k people with the jabbie jab by Sunday.
If that's true, despite the negative stories, that would be good going.9 -
Many will. But given how people have largely adhered to restrictions thus far, I think it strange to suggest that at least some would adhere to a law keeping restriction over the Xmas period, at least more than those who will not if there is a Xmas hall pass.another_richard said:
People are bored of covid.rottenborough said:
What an f*ing mess. Yet again Johnson and co have made an epic balls up.MaxPB said:Time to cancel this 5 day free pass. It's going to result in so many unnecessary hospitalisations and deaths.
They're going to meet whether allowed to or not.0 -
Agreed and I doubt he isDougSeal said:Johnson wanted to be PM his whole life. I wonder if he’s enjoying it? He can’t have imagined it would be anything like this. He got the job at exactly the wrong time.
1 -
It is thought that May favoured CU and maximum integration. Perhaps he had orders from on high.another_richard said:
Well I was among the first to point out the uselessness of Liam Fox.Carnyx said:
[deleted - just too angry that copying exactly the same as before is aeen as a truimph after years and years of sitting on their collective thumbs]another_richard said:
Yet we were continually told on PB that replicating the EU trade deals would be impossible.Cyclefree said:
It has come to something when maintaining the trading status quo, a status quo achieved by EU not British negotiators, with a number of countries is seen as some sort of major achievement. Still, we're in the land of the blind these days so she deserves one small cheer for doing what Liam Fox so dismally failed to do. She did not distinguish herself as Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary, however.Morris_Dancer said:Truss appears to have done well with the trade agreements. However, she needs to continue that momentum (or do well in a new role) for her odds and leadership prospects to improve further.
Not to mention that replicating those deals is only the first step - you can then look to build and improve upon them.
Its not as if we need to worry about the interests of olive oil producers any more for example.
Why his uselessness was tolerated for so long by the government and Conservative party in general is something I'm curious about.0 -
I should probably note that as a Gordon Brown hater I'm pretty sure I experienced schadenfreude watching him take the blame for the 2008 financial crash, even though I was aware how bad it was for the country, and me.TrèsDifficile said:
When the Boris haters (in which I include all non tories and all against Brexit) smugly report on their perceived failings of the government on anything Covid or Brexit related, is that a kind of schadenfreude?TrèsDifficile said:
However much of a shame it would be, I'm sure some would only find glee in reporting whom they would blame.IanB2 said:It would be a shame if, after having been first off, we are shown up and overtaken by other countries for dint of their much better organisation.
1 -
One of the key points about Sweden is they had consistency of message. Clearly under review at the moment but throughout spring/summer/autumn its been pretty much the same.BluestBlue said:
Well, at least it makes a change from months of complaining that he wouldn't allow us to become Sweden.rottenborough said:
What an f*ing mess. Yet again Johnson and co have made an epic balls up.MaxPB said:Time to cancel this 5 day free pass. It's going to result in so many unnecessary hospitalisations and deaths.
Johnson started feeding journalists stuff about saving xmas weeks and weeks ago. It was rash and stupid.0 -
Are the vaccine team themselves vaccinated ?Foxy said:
Currently the issue is supply mostly. The vaccine teams are feeling the strain though too.Luckyguy1983 said:
It would be a great shame, considering our centrally organised top down health service model. Poor outcomes for cancer etc. is one thing - not being able to get identical jabs in arms is quite another. If it can't do that, what's it for?IanB2 said:It would be a shame if, after having been first off, we are shown up and overtaken by other countries for dint of their much better organisation.
0 -
Interesting perspective on Brexit from a French fisherman's perspective:
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/replay-radio/le-choix-franceinfo/brexit-qu-est-qu-on-va-faire-apres-il-n-y-plus-rien-dans-les-eaux-francaises-le-desespoir-des-pecheurs-de-boulogne-sur-mer-en-cas-de-no-deal_4206495.html
Apparently the logic is that because German, Belgian and Dutch factory boats have fished out French waters, French fishermen must continue to have access to British waters ...1 -
What do you mean again....the one time he has looked forward he proposed a circuit breaker...that approach that failed massively twice in NI and also in Wales.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.2 -
Given she could never have had CU then she was clearly just as ignorant and stupid as many of us always said.Luckyguy1983 said:
It is thought that May favoured CU and maximum integration. Perhaps he had orders from on high.another_richard said:
Well I was among the first to point out the uselessness of Liam Fox.Carnyx said:
[deleted - just too angry that copying exactly the same as before is aeen as a truimph after years and years of sitting on their collective thumbs]another_richard said:
Yet we were continually told on PB that replicating the EU trade deals would be impossible.Cyclefree said:
It has come to something when maintaining the trading status quo, a status quo achieved by EU not British negotiators, with a number of countries is seen as some sort of major achievement. Still, we're in the land of the blind these days so she deserves one small cheer for doing what Liam Fox so dismally failed to do. She did not distinguish herself as Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary, however.Morris_Dancer said:Truss appears to have done well with the trade agreements. However, she needs to continue that momentum (or do well in a new role) for her odds and leadership prospects to improve further.
Not to mention that replicating those deals is only the first step - you can then look to build and improve upon them.
Its not as if we need to worry about the interests of olive oil producers any more for example.
Why his uselessness was tolerated for so long by the government and Conservative party in general is something I'm curious about.0 -
Just had good mates of mine on from Peterborough, talking about the horror effects of going into Tier 3 on their local pubs and restaurants. Gently pointed out that up north its been like that for months.another_richard said:
So what's your view on Burnham, Jarvis etc wanting to reduce current restrictions in northern England ?CorrectHorseBattery said:
Its concern for that which is driving MPs as well as mayors to want a reduction. BTW you mentioned Labour mayors - here in Smoggieland its Tory MPs whining on.
On public health grounds a reduction would be bonkers. Then again with all of £3.50 made available to support business I can understand why they are protesting.1 -
They get first call at leftovers at the end of a session. It is a perk of the job.Pulpstar said:
Are the vaccine team themselves vaccinated ?Foxy said:
Currently the issue is supply mostly. The vaccine teams are feeling the strain though too.Luckyguy1983 said:
It would be a great shame, considering our centrally organised top down health service model. Poor outcomes for cancer etc. is one thing - not being able to get identical jabs in arms is quite another. If it can't do that, what's it for?IanB2 said:It would be a shame if, after having been first off, we are shown up and overtaken by other countries for dint of their much better organisation.
0 -
He certainly doesn't look like he's enjoying it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Agreed and I doubt he isDougSeal said:Johnson wanted to be PM his whole life. I wonder if he’s enjoying it? He can’t have imagined it would be anything like this. He got the job at exactly the wrong time.
0 -
Certainly but enough ?kle4 said:
Many will. But given how people have largely adhered to restrictions thus far, I think it strange to suggest that at least some would adhere to a law keeping restriction over the Xmas period, at least more than those who will not if there is a Xmas hall pass.another_richard said:
People are bored of covid.rottenborough said:
What an f*ing mess. Yet again Johnson and co have made an epic balls up.MaxPB said:Time to cancel this 5 day free pass. It's going to result in so many unnecessary hospitalisations and deaths.
They're going to meet whether allowed to or not.
A nightmare for government is the thought of being ignored.
And I sense that observance of covid guidelines are generally fraying.0 -
Yes absolutely. My Grandmother could have gotten it on Wednesday but since my Mum is picking her up for Christmas she wasn't going to be able to make the appointment. She's going to call back on the 29th to get an appointment for January.FrancisUrquhart said:Telegraph reckon they will have done 500k people with the jabbie jab by Sunday.
If that's true, despite the negative stories, that would be good going.
Just need to hope the government is bright enough to put pretty serious restrictions in place to stop the new variant from getting loose out of kent. Doesn't seem to be the statistical evidence that it's more dangerous but a higher innate R0 is not a good thing.0 -
The mistake wasn't the lockdown itself, it was it being too short. If we had locked down when Keir said we'd be in a better position, that is unarguable. Wales made the same mistake, should have kept it in place.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you mean again....the one time he has looked forward he proposed a circuit breaker...that approach that failed massively twice in NI and also in Wales.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.0 -
Anybody enjoying being a world leader at the moment isn't right in the head. Even Putin looks like he is questioning his decision to bend the rules to allow him to return as president.rottenborough said:
He certainly doesn't look like he's enjoying it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Agreed and I doubt he isDougSeal said:Johnson wanted to be PM his whole life. I wonder if he’s enjoying it? He can’t have imagined it would be anything like this. He got the job at exactly the wrong time.
1 -
So did Churchill (and Lloyd-George) by that definition.DougSeal said:Johnson wanted to be PM his whole life. I wonder if he’s enjoying it? He can’t have imagined it would be anything like this. He got the job at exactly the wrong time.
To be great you have to achieve when things are hard.2 -
People in Totnes yesterday were greeting each other in the street with a hug. No masks.TrèsDifficile said:I think we should set up antiCovidiot Patrols. During my 15 minute walk to the shops and back earlier I encountered 7 groups of fools. 2 groups of kids, around ten in each group, outdoors but stood about a foot between them and blocking pathways through a garden. 4 I presume family groups of 3-5 walking side by side along the pavement, filling its width without masks and shouting to each other. 1 group of I think three families stood outside the main entrance/exit shouting to each other without masks and in the way of everybody else.
I would have loved to have had some official antiCovidiot Patrol power that I could have harangued them, photographed them, and shamed them with.0 -
Not letting you have that. Circuit breaker was a specific policy put forward by SAGE, and Starmer explicitly said he wanted us to follow that. People like me and Max pointed out at the time, the modelling it was based on was.bollocks. It was not a call to repeat the lockdown of March / April, which is what we needed.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The mistake wasn't the lockdown itself, it was it being too short. If we had locked down when Keir said we'd be in a better position, that is unarguable. Wales made the same mistake, should have kept it in place.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you mean again....the one time he has looked forward he proposed a circuit breaker...that approach that failed massively twice in NI and also in Wales.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.0 -
Sure, but the private sector is investing ever more. The broadband industry as a whole is moving to "fibre first", so that anything new and anything repaired or replaced is getting fibre. Everybody knows copper just won't cut it anymore.CorrectHorseBattery said:
They just cut the FTTP budget to hit the hardest to reach areas.glw said:
Giving every home and business access to FFTP is not something you can just do overnight, but there is serious investment from multiple companies now, and in most cases they are very keen to expand their footprint not just upgrade existing customers. Just today Openreach announced they are hiring another 5,000 engineers next year to deploy FTTP.CorrectHorseBattery said:On this Government's record we can expect very few houses to be built, FTTP coverage to be low and the economy to be in a mess.
Such is the record of a Government that under-delivers on every measure.2 -
It is and likely means that hundreds of lives have already been saved.FrancisUrquhart said:Telegraph reckon they will have done 500k people with the jabbie jab by Sunday.
If that's true, despite the negative stories, that would be good going.
Vaccination is certainly going better than the doomsters predicted.2 -
The Tories promised to cover the whole country by 2024, they won't do it if they cut the funding.glw said:
Sure, but the private sector is investing ever more. The broadband industry as a whole is moving to "fibre first", so that anything new and anything repaired or replaced is getting fibre. Everybody knows copper just won't cut it anymore.CorrectHorseBattery said:
They just cut the FTTP budget to hit the hardest to reach areas.glw said:
Giving every home and business access to FFTP is not something you can just do overnight, but there is serious investment from multiple companies now, and in most cases they are very keen to expand their footprint not just upgrade existing customers. Just today Openreach announced they are hiring another 5,000 engineers next year to deploy FTTP.CorrectHorseBattery said:On this Government's record we can expect very few houses to be built, FTTP coverage to be low and the economy to be in a mess.
Such is the record of a Government that under-delivers on every measure.
Openreach should be credited with their rollout to 85% which I think they will achieve but they won't cover the remaining 15% without Gov help, which they've just cut.
I hope to have FTTP within a couple of years, after the debacle that was FTTC and G.Fast at least Openreach have got it together now.0 -
Actually, there's a thought. Imagine all this kicked off in 2019, and Boris was an ambitious backbench MP and Telegraph columnist. Everything would push him into full-on Swedish Model Fantasy, wouldn't it?rottenborough said:
One of the key points about Sweden is they had consistency of message. Clearly under review at the moment but throughout spring/summer/autumn its been pretty much the same.BluestBlue said:
Well, at least it makes a change from months of complaining that he wouldn't allow us to become Sweden.rottenborough said:
What an f*ing mess. Yet again Johnson and co have made an epic balls up.MaxPB said:Time to cancel this 5 day free pass. It's going to result in so many unnecessary hospitalisations and deaths.
Johnson started feeding journalists stuff about saving xmas weeks and weeks ago. It was rash and stupid.1 -
I dislike Boris because of his failings. If he had no failings I wouldn’t. I’d probably quite like him. He’s a good pitch man, he can sell stuff, indeed he sold me enough to give him my second preference at the 2008 Mayoral Election - the only time I have given a Tory any kind of vote. I just wish he wouldn’t keep selling the people dodgy goods and false promises. If he used his talents of persuasion to better ends I’d like him. But he doesn’t so I don’t like him.TrèsDifficile said:
I should probably note that as a Gordon Brown hater I'm pretty sure I experienced schadenfreude watching him take the blame for the 2008 financial crash, even though I was aware how bad it was for the country, and me.TrèsDifficile said:
When the Boris haters (in which I include all non tories and all against Brexit) smugly report on their perceived failings of the government on anything Covid or Brexit related, is that a kind of schadenfreude?TrèsDifficile said:
However much of a shame it would be, I'm sure some would only find glee in reporting whom they would blame.IanB2 said:It would be a shame if, after having been first off, we are shown up and overtaken by other countries for dint of their much better organisation.
1 -
Still no sign of my elderly (and has multiple high risk conditions) father getting his jab. Was hoping he might get done before Christmas, so could perhaps see him in the early New Year.0
-
But that's not what Keir wanted.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The mistake wasn't the lockdown itself, it was it being too short. If we had locked down when Keir said we'd be in a better position, that is unarguable. Wales made the same mistake, should have kept it in place.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you mean again....the one time he has looked forward he proposed a circuit breaker...that approach that failed massively twice in NI and also in Wales.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.
He bought into the 'two weeks will solve the problem' bollox.3 -
Keir said the two week lockdown should have been over half term - it wasn't - and a working test + trace system with tiers needed to be put into place. They weren't.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not letting you have that. Circuit breaker was a specific policy put forward by SAGE, and Starmer explicitly said he wanted us to follow that. People like me and Max pointed out at the time, the modelling it was based on was.bollocks. It was not a call to repeat the lockdown of March / April, which is what we needed.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The mistake wasn't the lockdown itself, it was it being too short. If we had locked down when Keir said we'd be in a better position, that is unarguable. Wales made the same mistake, should have kept it in place.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you mean again....the one time he has looked forward he proposed a circuit breaker...that approach that failed massively twice in NI and also in Wales.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.
What he asked for wasn't done - but the idea of locking down he was spot on about. Because of Government incompetence we cocked that up.
And I asked for the lockdown to be extended. It was wrong to open up, that was a mistake both Tories and Labour made.1 -
Pedantically, they mutate randomly and those are the mutations that tend to get selected for. Substantively, lethality doesn't really matter when you have an absolutely huge supply of new hosts. Even when it does matter, speed of lethality is the key: you want your host to be milling around infecting others for as long as possible. Whether the host then dies or recovers is immaterial because a recovered and now immune victim and a corpse are of equal value to you.rottenborough said:
iirc virus have a tendency to mutate to more infectious but less fatal.another_richard said:
More infectious but less dangerous wouldn't be a bad combination.rottenborough said:
More infectious is a better way of describing this than more virulent imho.kle4 said:
Bad news, but almost convenient for him politically in giving him cover with the backbenchers and headlines he seems terrified of, without saying it is all the public's fault for being irresponsible.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Though the vulnerable would have to be told to shield while its spreading.2 -
And when would Starmer have broken it to us that his 2-3 weeks circuit-breaker was nowhere long enough?CorrectHorseBattery said:
The mistake wasn't the lockdown itself, it was it being too short. If we had locked down when Keir said we'd be in a better position, that is unarguable. Wales made the same mistake, should have kept it in place.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you mean again....the one time he has looked forward he proposed a circuit breaker...that approach that failed massively twice in NI and also in Wales.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.2 -
Knocking down cases at the start of an exponential curve buys you more time than doing so as late as we eventually did. And it's worth pointing out that Johnson ignored that advice not because it wasn't strong enough, but because he was squeamish about locking down again.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not letting you have that. Circuit breaker was a specific policy put forward by SAGE, and Starmer explicitly said he wanted us to follow that. People like me and Max pointed out at the time, the modelling it was based on was.bollocks. It was not a call to repeat the lockdown of March / April, which is what we needed.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The mistake wasn't the lockdown itself, it was it being too short. If we had locked down when Keir said we'd be in a better position, that is unarguable. Wales made the same mistake, should have kept it in place.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you mean again....the one time he has looked forward he proposed a circuit breaker...that approach that failed massively twice in NI and also in Wales.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.
Either way I happen to agree with you on repeating the March/April lockdown. If we'd done that in October and held it until today then we would be in a position to have the kind of Christmas that Johnson wanted. As it is... we really really aren't.1 -
He never said two weeks would solve it.another_richard said:
But that's not what Keir wanted.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The mistake wasn't the lockdown itself, it was it being too short. If we had locked down when Keir said we'd be in a better position, that is unarguable. Wales made the same mistake, should have kept it in place.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you mean again....the one time he has looked forward he proposed a circuit breaker...that approach that failed massively twice in NI and also in Wales.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.
He bought into the 'two weeks will solve the problem' bollox.0 -
Yay! Thank goodness we will be able to get around these new restrictions at ChristmasCorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
You can argue til.you are in the blue face, but he called explicitly for us to implement SAGEs advice.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Keir said the two week lockdown should have been over half term - it wasn't - and a working test + trace system with tiers needed to be put into place. They weren't.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not letting you have that. Circuit breaker was a specific policy put forward by SAGE, and Starmer explicitly said he wanted us to follow that. People like me and Max pointed out at the time, the modelling it was based on was.bollocks. It was not a call to repeat the lockdown of March / April, which is what we needed.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The mistake wasn't the lockdown itself, it was it being too short. If we had locked down when Keir said we'd be in a better position, that is unarguable. Wales made the same mistake, should have kept it in place.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you mean again....the one time he has looked forward he proposed a circuit breaker...that approach that failed massively twice in NI and also in Wales.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.
What he asked for wasn't done - but the idea of locking down he was spot on about. Because of Government incompetence we cocked that up.
And I asked for the lockdown to be extended. It was wrong to open up, that was a mistake both Tories and Labour made.
And as for test / trace, nonsense demand that it could be fixed in a couple of weeks. Its like demanding somebody loses a 30 pounds of weight in 2 weeks.
I would give him credit if he had called for 6 weeks.2 -
New varient in RSA tooIshmaelZ said:
Pedantically, they mutate randomly and those are the mutations that tend to get selected for. Substantively, lethality doesn't really matter when you have an absolutely huge supply of new hosts. Even when it does matter, speed of lethality is the key: you want your host to be milling around infecting others for as long as possible. Whether the host then dies or recovers is immaterial because a recovered and now immune victim and a corpse are of equal value to you.rottenborough said:
iirc virus have a tendency to mutate to more infectious but less fatal.another_richard said:
More infectious but less dangerous wouldn't be a bad combination.rottenborough said:
More infectious is a better way of describing this than more virulent imho.kle4 said:
Bad news, but almost convenient for him politically in giving him cover with the backbenchers and headlines he seems terrified of, without saying it is all the public's fault for being irresponsible.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Though the vulnerable would have to be told to shield while its spreading.
"In addition, clinicians have been providing anecdotal evidence of a shift in the clinical epidemiological picture- in particular noting that they are seeing a larger proportion of younger patients with no co-morbidities presenting with critical illness. The evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by this new variant."
https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/new-covid-19-variant-identified-in-sa1 -
Is there any plan to add to or supplement with the daily case numbers/death numbers a daily and/or rolling vaccination count?0
-
For all that I think Boris isn't very bright I suspect that any restrictions that get imposed will be imposed over Christmas as well.RochdalePioneers said:
Yay! Thank goodness we will be able to get around these new restrictions at ChristmasCorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Did the lockdown reduce cases? Yes.FrancisUrquhart said:
You can argue til.you are in the blue face, but he called explicitly for us to implement SAGEs advice.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Keir said the two week lockdown should have been over half term - it wasn't - and a working test + trace system with tiers needed to be put into place. They weren't.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not letting you have that. Circuit breaker was a specific policy put forward by SAGE, and Starmer explicitly said he wanted us to follow that. People like me and Max pointed out at the time, the modelling it was based on was.bollocks. It was not a call to repeat the lockdown of March / April, which is what we needed.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The mistake wasn't the lockdown itself, it was it being too short. If we had locked down when Keir said we'd be in a better position, that is unarguable. Wales made the same mistake, should have kept it in place.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you mean again....the one time he has looked forward he proposed a circuit breaker...that approach that failed massively twice in NI and also in Wales.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.
What he asked for wasn't done - but the idea of locking down he was spot on about. Because of Government incompetence we cocked that up.
And I asked for the lockdown to be extended. It was wrong to open up, that was a mistake both Tories and Labour made.
And as for test / trace, nonsense demand that it could be fixed in a couple of weeks.
I would give him credit if he had called for 6 weeks.
Was it implemented as he said, no.
Therefore you can't blame him for it not working.
A responsible Government would have extended it, Keir should have called for that - he can be blamed for that.0 -
Any lockdown shorter than the time it takes for the virus to work through everyone in a household is not worth it. Just thinking about typical UK households and the timeline of an infection it looks to me like 4 weeks is the minimum. At two weeks you would almost certainly have people infected during lockdown who are still infectious being let out.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not letting you have that. Circuit breaker was a specific policy put forward by SAGE, and Starmer explicitly said he wanted us to follow that. People like me and Max pointed out at the time, the modelling it was based on was.bollocks. It was not a call to repeat the lockdown of March / April, which is what we needed.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The mistake wasn't the lockdown itself, it was it being too short. If we had locked down when Keir said we'd be in a better position, that is unarguable. Wales made the same mistake, should have kept it in place.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you mean again....the one time he has looked forward he proposed a circuit breaker...that approach that failed massively twice in NI and also in Wales.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.1 -
If we had repeated the March lockdown from Half Term until now we could be slowly opening up for Christmas now.
The Tories are useless.1 -
It's the 21st century we can all choose whichever genders we like.Carnyx said:
But surely your rhetoric is much more potent if the listener doesn't stop dead mentally when the words don't have the same and consistent gender? It's like reading "An example is the trains on the East Coast line". The listener or reader is too busy to work out what has gone wrong to be stunned by your oratory as a tribune of the plebs. the Gracchi and C. Julius Caesar would never have disdained to get their genders straight.Tres said:
As a proud pleb, I'll settle for the sentiment over accuracy.YBarddCwsc said:
Carthago, Carthiginis is a feminine noun. Hence, Carthago delenda est.Tres said:
Johnson delenda est.MarqueeMark said:
There are 20% of the population like TSE and Scott_P who will never, ever be gracious enough to acknowledge that Boris could ever do anything even grudgingly worth acknowledging. Even protecting them from a killer pandemic.Mexicanpete said:CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1339993242134335488
Truly abysmal numbers for BoJo there.
The economy number is much, much better than I anticipated. All down to Rishi's free money.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1339993242134335488
Truly abysmal numbers for BoJo there.
Just 80% approval for the vaccine? To be fair to Johnson that is ingratious. Probably more by accident than design he has done well with vaccines.
Johnson is not. I think you need to check the case ending of your gerundive.😀1 -
He call was even worse...it was for the crash diet of lockdowns.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Did the lockdown reduce cases? Yes.FrancisUrquhart said:
You can argue til.you are in the blue face, but he called explicitly for us to implement SAGEs advice.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Keir said the two week lockdown should have been over half term - it wasn't - and a working test + trace system with tiers needed to be put into place. They weren't.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not letting you have that. Circuit breaker was a specific policy put forward by SAGE, and Starmer explicitly said he wanted us to follow that. People like me and Max pointed out at the time, the modelling it was based on was.bollocks. It was not a call to repeat the lockdown of March / April, which is what we needed.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The mistake wasn't the lockdown itself, it was it being too short. If we had locked down when Keir said we'd be in a better position, that is unarguable. Wales made the same mistake, should have kept it in place.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you mean again....the one time he has looked forward he proposed a circuit breaker...that approach that failed massively twice in NI and also in Wales.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.
What he asked for wasn't done - but the idea of locking down he was spot on about. Because of Government incompetence we cocked that up.
And I asked for the lockdown to be extended. It was wrong to open up, that was a mistake both Tories and Labour made.
And as for test / trace, nonsense demand that it could be fixed in a couple of weeks.
I would give him credit if he had called for 6 weeks.
Was it implemented as he said, no.
Therefore you can't blame him for it not working.
A responsible Government would have extended it, Keir should have called for that - he can be blamed for that.0 -
I think maybe we should have some kind of Covidiot spray that the patrols can use to identify the numbskulls so the rest can steer clear.MarqueeMark said:
People in Totnes yesterday were greeting each other in the street with a hug. No masks.TrèsDifficile said:I think we should set up antiCovidiot Patrols. During my 15 minute walk to the shops and back earlier I encountered 7 groups of fools. 2 groups of kids, around ten in each group, outdoors but stood about a foot between them and blocking pathways through a garden. 4 I presume family groups of 3-5 walking side by side along the pavement, filling its width without masks and shouting to each other. 1 group of I think three families stood outside the main entrance/exit shouting to each other without masks and in the way of everybody else.
I would have loved to have had some official antiCovidiot Patrol power that I could have harangued them, photographed them, and shamed them with.0 -
0
-
You seem to imply Boris has UK wide powers which he does notCorrectHorseBattery said:
Keir said the two week lockdown should have been over half term - it wasn't - and a working test + trace system with tiers needed to be put into place. They weren't.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not letting you have that. Circuit breaker was a specific policy put forward by SAGE, and Starmer explicitly said he wanted us to follow that. People like me and Max pointed out at the time, the modelling it was based on was.bollocks. It was not a call to repeat the lockdown of March / April, which is what we needed.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The mistake wasn't the lockdown itself, it was it being too short. If we had locked down when Keir said we'd be in a better position, that is unarguable. Wales made the same mistake, should have kept it in place.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you mean again....the one time he has looked forward he proposed a circuit breaker...that approach that failed massively twice in NI and also in Wales.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.
What he asked for wasn't done - but the idea of locking down he was spot on about. Because of Government incompetence we cocked that up.
And I asked for the lockdown to be extended. It was wrong to open up, that was a mistake both Tories and Labour made.
You say fhe idea of lockdown was spot on but that has spectacularly failed as implemented by Drakeford in Wales0 -
Very worrying.Foxy said:
New varient in RSA tooIshmaelZ said:
Pedantically, they mutate randomly and those are the mutations that tend to get selected for. Substantively, lethality doesn't really matter when you have an absolutely huge supply of new hosts. Even when it does matter, speed of lethality is the key: you want your host to be milling around infecting others for as long as possible. Whether the host then dies or recovers is immaterial because a recovered and now immune victim and a corpse are of equal value to you.rottenborough said:
iirc virus have a tendency to mutate to more infectious but less fatal.another_richard said:
More infectious but less dangerous wouldn't be a bad combination.rottenborough said:
More infectious is a better way of describing this than more virulent imho.kle4 said:
Bad news, but almost convenient for him politically in giving him cover with the backbenchers and headlines he seems terrified of, without saying it is all the public's fault for being irresponsible.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Though the vulnerable would have to be told to shield while its spreading.
"In addition, clinicians have been providing anecdotal evidence of a shift in the clinical epidemiological picture- in particular noting that they are seeing a larger proportion of younger patients with no co-morbidities presenting with critical illness. The evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by this new variant."
https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/new-covid-19-variant-identified-in-sa
The government messgaing needs to be super strong on this, as most young people have decided Covid isn't really a risk to them personally. It will be like an oil tanker to try and turn that, not totally incorrect, perception around1 -
0
-
Well fixing test and trace in two weeks is even more absurd than the two week lockdown. You wouldn't even want to mess with the existing system, realistically you'd want a second system to operate in parallel and replace test and trace as it scales up. I doubt that could be done in less than a few months.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir said the two week lockdown should have been over half term - it wasn't - and a working test + trace system with tiers needed to be put into place. They weren't.
1 -
Wales had a lockdown which reduced rates. It was too short, which was a huge error. At the end of the two weeks there were no significant precautions put into place. That was a fiasco.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not letting you have that. Circuit breaker was a specific policy put forward by SAGE, and Starmer explicitly said he wanted us to follow that. People like me and Max pointed out at the time, the modelling it was based on was.bollocks. It was not a call to repeat the lockdown of March / April, which is what we needed.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The mistake wasn't the lockdown itself, it was it being too short. If we had locked down when Keir said we'd be in a better position, that is unarguable. Wales made the same mistake, should have kept it in place.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you mean again....the one time he has looked forward he proposed a circuit breaker...that approach that failed massively twice in NI and also in Wales.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.
The fire break would have worked had the Welsh Government not made such monumental errors.1 -
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1340058161714237442
Absolutely the right approach. Labour must neutralise Brexit.0 -
I completely agree and said so!Mexicanpete said:
Wales had a lockdown which reduced rates. It was too short, which was a huge error. At the end of the two weeks there were no significant precautions put into place. That was a fiasco.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not letting you have that. Circuit breaker was a specific policy put forward by SAGE, and Starmer explicitly said he wanted us to follow that. People like me and Max pointed out at the time, the modelling it was based on was.bollocks. It was not a call to repeat the lockdown of March / April, which is what we needed.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The mistake wasn't the lockdown itself, it was it being too short. If we had locked down when Keir said we'd be in a better position, that is unarguable. Wales made the same mistake, should have kept it in place.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you mean again....the one time he has looked forward he proposed a circuit breaker...that approach that failed massively twice in NI and also in Wales.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.
The fire break would have worked had the Welsh Government not made such monumental errors.
0 -
That what was the bollox that was advocated.CorrectHorseBattery said:
He never said two weeks would solve it.another_richard said:
But that's not what Keir wanted.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The mistake wasn't the lockdown itself, it was it being too short. If we had locked down when Keir said we'd be in a better position, that is unarguable. Wales made the same mistake, should have kept it in place.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you mean again....the one time he has looked forward he proposed a circuit breaker...that approach that failed massively twice in NI and also in Wales.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.
He bought into the 'two weeks will solve the problem' bollox.
If Keir wanted a six week lockdown he should have said so.
But either he didn't or he didn't have the courage to advocate it.0 -
It like shouting from the sidelines at weight watchers, oi fatties just don't eat for the 2 weeks, that will lose you your spare tyre. Doesn't realistically fix the problem at all.glw said:
Well fixing test and trace in two weeks is even more absurd than the two week lockdown. You wouldn't even want to mess with the existing system, realistically you'd want a second system to operate in parallel and replace test and trace as it scales up. I doubt that could be done in less than a few months.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir said the two week lockdown should have been over half term - it wasn't - and a working test + trace system with tiers needed to be put into place. They weren't.
0 -
I don't doubt that there are plenty of good reasons to dislike Boris. But I'm pretty sure that the haters, I think a distinct group, are enjoying his struggles.DougSeal said:
I dislike Boris because of his failings. If he had no failings I wouldn’t. I’d probably quite like him. He’s a good pitch man, he can sell stuff, indeed he sold me enough to give him my second preference at the 2008 Mayoral Election - the only time I have given a Tory any kind of vote. I just wish he wouldn’t keep selling the people dodgy goods and false promises. If he used his talents of persuasion to better ends I’d like him. But he doesn’t so I don’t like him.TrèsDifficile said:
I should probably note that as a Gordon Brown hater I'm pretty sure I experienced schadenfreude watching him take the blame for the 2008 financial crash, even though I was aware how bad it was for the country, and me.TrèsDifficile said:
When the Boris haters (in which I include all non tories and all against Brexit) smugly report on their perceived failings of the government on anything Covid or Brexit related, is that a kind of schadenfreude?TrèsDifficile said:
However much of a shame it would be, I'm sure some would only find glee in reporting whom they would blame.IanB2 said:It would be a shame if, after having been first off, we are shown up and overtaken by other countries for dint of their much better organisation.
0 -
By recategorising the issue as a national security one he could impose a UK lockdown. Politically that would provoke Armageddon but legally it’s sound.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You seem to imply Boris has UK wide powers which he does notCorrectHorseBattery said:
Keir said the two week lockdown should have been over half term - it wasn't - and a working test + trace system with tiers needed to be put into place. They weren't.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not letting you have that. Circuit breaker was a specific policy put forward by SAGE, and Starmer explicitly said he wanted us to follow that. People like me and Max pointed out at the time, the modelling it was based on was.bollocks. It was not a call to repeat the lockdown of March / April, which is what we needed.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The mistake wasn't the lockdown itself, it was it being too short. If we had locked down when Keir said we'd be in a better position, that is unarguable. Wales made the same mistake, should have kept it in place.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you mean again....the one time he has looked forward he proposed a circuit breaker...that approach that failed massively twice in NI and also in Wales.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.
What he asked for wasn't done - but the idea of locking down he was spot on about. Because of Government incompetence we cocked that up.
And I asked for the lockdown to be extended. It was wrong to open up, that was a mistake both Tories and Labour made.
You say fhe idea of lockdown was spot on but that has spectacularly failed as implemented by Drakeford in Wales0 -
But, in the real world, it tends to matter because viruses that kill more people tend to produce more serious symptoms earlier and have fewer cases with mild or no symptoms at all. Therefore a virus that is more fatal tends to spread more slowly, whereas a virus that is more benign has its carriers leading their normal lives while spreading it about.IshmaelZ said:
Pedantically, they mutate randomly and those are the mutations that tend to get selected for. Substantively, lethality doesn't really matter when you have an absolutely huge supply of new hosts. Even when it does matter, speed of lethality is the key: you want your host to be milling around infecting others for as long as possible. Whether the host then dies or recovers is immaterial because a recovered and now immune victim and a corpse are of equal value to you.rottenborough said:
iirc virus have a tendency to mutate to more infectious but less fatal.another_richard said:
More infectious but less dangerous wouldn't be a bad combination.rottenborough said:
More infectious is a better way of describing this than more virulent imho.kle4 said:
Bad news, but almost convenient for him politically in giving him cover with the backbenchers and headlines he seems terrified of, without saying it is all the public's fault for being irresponsible.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Though the vulnerable would have to be told to shield while its spreading.
AIDS was so dangerous because it remained invisible for so long and yet, originally, was usually a death sentence. But that’s very unusual.0 -
are we still allowing travel between here and rsa?FrancisUrquhart said:
Very worrying.Foxy said:
New varient in RSA tooIshmaelZ said:
Pedantically, they mutate randomly and those are the mutations that tend to get selected for. Substantively, lethality doesn't really matter when you have an absolutely huge supply of new hosts. Even when it does matter, speed of lethality is the key: you want your host to be milling around infecting others for as long as possible. Whether the host then dies or recovers is immaterial because a recovered and now immune victim and a corpse are of equal value to you.rottenborough said:
iirc virus have a tendency to mutate to more infectious but less fatal.another_richard said:
More infectious but less dangerous wouldn't be a bad combination.rottenborough said:
More infectious is a better way of describing this than more virulent imho.kle4 said:
Bad news, but almost convenient for him politically in giving him cover with the backbenchers and headlines he seems terrified of, without saying it is all the public's fault for being irresponsible.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Though the vulnerable would have to be told to shield while its spreading.
"In addition, clinicians have been providing anecdotal evidence of a shift in the clinical epidemiological picture- in particular noting that they are seeing a larger proportion of younger patients with no co-morbidities presenting with critical illness. The evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by this new variant."
https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/new-covid-19-variant-identified-in-sa
The government messgaing needs to be super strong on this, as most young people have decided Covid isn't really a risk to them personally. It will be like an oil tanker to try and turn that, not totally incorrect, perception around0 -
I think Cameron would have been very good. His personal history with Ivan would have allowed him to project to people having to deal with family members in ICU - and do all he could to prevent that. I don't think he would have been at all squeamish about calling lockdowns.stodge said:
It's in Johnson's nature to be optimistic and upbeat. He was like that as Mayor of London and he was like that before Covid. He praises the country and the people to the skies - fair enough, most of the time a bit of inspiration doesn't go amiss. Back in July, he wanted people "cheek by jowl" at Christmas.rottenborough said:
What an f*ing mess. Yet again Johnson and co have made an epic balls up.MaxPB said:Time to cancel this 5 day free pass. It's going to result in so many unnecessary hospitalisations and deaths.
He understands the symbolic nature of Christmas in terms of it being an oasis of normality and hope in an ocean of bad news and anxiety. He wanted to save as much of that as possible - to give people something for which to aspire, to be hopeful, to be optimistic because that's the kind of Britain he wants to lead - upbeat, confident, optimistic.
Instead, he's got a pandemic and millions are frightened, frustrated and worried for the future. Yes, he can trumpet a vaccine all he wants but for the vast majority it's meaningless as they won't be getting it any time soon - 10 million vaccinated by Christmas anyone?
In his desire to keep spirits up, he panders - he treats us like children endlessly promising jam tomorrow if we keep the faith. He's not alone - many other leaders have played that game. Perhaps Merkel is one of the few who hasn't.
The problem is when the hope turns out to be a chimera - when he has to be "honest" and tell his audience what they don't want to hear - his limitations as a Prime Minister become painfully evident. He doesn't want to be the PM who lost Christmas - it would be a millstone round his political career. Quite apart from anything else, why would anyone believe a syllable he utters ever again?
I'll be honest - Theresa May, for all her flaws, would have done this so much better.2 -
No it wouldn't...they didn't get the rates down anywhere near enough in several.key areas...but they made it worse...next...Mexicanpete said:
Wales had a lockdown which reduced rates. It was too short, which was a huge error. At the end of the two weeks there were no significant precautions put into place. That was a fiasco.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not letting you have that. Circuit breaker was a specific policy put forward by SAGE, and Starmer explicitly said he wanted us to follow that. People like me and Max pointed out at the time, the modelling it was based on was.bollocks. It was not a call to repeat the lockdown of March / April, which is what we needed.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The mistake wasn't the lockdown itself, it was it being too short. If we had locked down when Keir said we'd be in a better position, that is unarguable. Wales made the same mistake, should have kept it in place.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you mean again....the one time he has looked forward he proposed a circuit breaker...that approach that failed massively twice in NI and also in Wales.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.
The fire break would have worked had the Welsh Government not made such monumental errors.
The circuit breaker crash diet policy was a key part of the problem. It was an attempt to do a quick lockdown, which is flawed thinking from the start.0 -
Drakeford backed by Starmer said that a single 2 week firebreak would halt the spread and the fool just let everyone return as if covid had goneCorrectHorseBattery said:
He never said two weeks would solve it.another_richard said:
But that's not what Keir wanted.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The mistake wasn't the lockdown itself, it was it being too short. If we had locked down when Keir said we'd be in a better position, that is unarguable. Wales made the same mistake, should have kept it in place.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you mean again....the one time he has looked forward he proposed a circuit breaker...that approach that failed massively twice in NI and also in Wales.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.
He bought into the 'two weeks will solve the problem' bollox.
Wales are losing more lives due to his disastrous decisions0 -
I would have Cameron back in a heartbeat.MarqueeMark said:
I think Cameron would have been very good. His personal history with Ivan would have allowed him to project to people having to deal with family members in ICU - and do all he could to prevent that. I don't think he would have been at all squeamish about calling lockdowns.stodge said:
It's in Johnson's nature to be optimistic and upbeat. He was like that as Mayor of London and he was like that before Covid. He praises the country and the people to the skies - fair enough, most of the time a bit of inspiration doesn't go amiss. Back in July, he wanted people "cheek by jowl" at Christmas.rottenborough said:
What an f*ing mess. Yet again Johnson and co have made an epic balls up.MaxPB said:Time to cancel this 5 day free pass. It's going to result in so many unnecessary hospitalisations and deaths.
He understands the symbolic nature of Christmas in terms of it being an oasis of normality and hope in an ocean of bad news and anxiety. He wanted to save as much of that as possible - to give people something for which to aspire, to be hopeful, to be optimistic because that's the kind of Britain he wants to lead - upbeat, confident, optimistic.
Instead, he's got a pandemic and millions are frightened, frustrated and worried for the future. Yes, he can trumpet a vaccine all he wants but for the vast majority it's meaningless as they won't be getting it any time soon - 10 million vaccinated by Christmas anyone?
In his desire to keep spirits up, he panders - he treats us like children endlessly promising jam tomorrow if we keep the faith. He's not alone - many other leaders have played that game. Perhaps Merkel is one of the few who hasn't.
The problem is when the hope turns out to be a chimera - when he has to be "honest" and tell his audience what they don't want to hear - his limitations as a Prime Minister become painfully evident. He doesn't want to be the PM who lost Christmas - it would be a millstone round his political career. Quite apart from anything else, why would anyone believe a syllable he utters ever again?
I'll be honest - Theresa May, for all her flaws, would have done this so much better.1 -
It would.FrancisUrquhart said:Telegraph reckon they will have done 500k people with the jabbie jab by Sunday.
If that's true, despite the negative stories, that would be good going.
I would like to see the stats on vaccination progress published as soon as possible. It would either be good for morale or provide incentive for improvement. Without measurement we cannot know whether the UK is doing well or badly.0 -
It was the crash diet with the opportunity to stuff your face before and after.FrancisUrquhart said:
He call was even worse...it was for the crash diet of lockdowns.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Did the lockdown reduce cases? Yes.FrancisUrquhart said:
You can argue til.you are in the blue face, but he called explicitly for us to implement SAGEs advice.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Keir said the two week lockdown should have been over half term - it wasn't - and a working test + trace system with tiers needed to be put into place. They weren't.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not letting you have that. Circuit breaker was a specific policy put forward by SAGE, and Starmer explicitly said he wanted us to follow that. People like me and Max pointed out at the time, the modelling it was based on was.bollocks. It was not a call to repeat the lockdown of March / April, which is what we needed.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The mistake wasn't the lockdown itself, it was it being too short. If we had locked down when Keir said we'd be in a better position, that is unarguable. Wales made the same mistake, should have kept it in place.FrancisUrquhart said:
What do you mean again....the one time he has looked forward he proposed a circuit breaker...that approach that failed massively twice in NI and also in Wales.CorrectHorseBattery said:Keir Starmer will be Captain Foresight again if Johnson ignores him.
Time to get Wales, Scotland, England, NI around the table, cancel this Christmas easing as a unified decision and then implement a unified nationwide lockdown from this weekend.
What he asked for wasn't done - but the idea of locking down he was spot on about. Because of Government incompetence we cocked that up.
And I asked for the lockdown to be extended. It was wrong to open up, that was a mistake both Tories and Labour made.
And as for test / trace, nonsense demand that it could be fixed in a couple of weeks.
I would give him credit if he had called for 6 weeks.
Was it implemented as he said, no.
Therefore you can't blame him for it not working.
A responsible Government would have extended it, Keir should have called for that - he can be blamed for that.1 -
Way too late. The pattern of infection rates suggests it's already spread along the Thames Estuary, infiltrated London, and is now expanding outwards into the Home Counties.OnboardG1 said:
Yes absolutely. My Grandmother could have gotten it on Wednesday but since my Mum is picking her up for Christmas she wasn't going to be able to make the appointment. She's going to call back on the 29th to get an appointment for January.FrancisUrquhart said:Telegraph reckon they will have done 500k people with the jabbie jab by Sunday.
If that's true, despite the negative stories, that would be good going.
Just need to hope the government is bright enough to put pretty serious restrictions in place to stop the new variant from getting loose out of kent. Doesn't seem to be the statistical evidence that it's more dangerous but a higher innate R0 is not a good thing.
The best that can be done now - *IF* the news about the Oxford vaccine and about the extreme contagiousness of the new Covid variant is all true - is to cancel the Christmas plan and impose a regime broadly similar to the first lockdown immediately and until further notice, and not even consider easing up until we've got as far as vaccinating everyone in the first four or five segments of the JCVI scheme. The schools shouldn't reopen in January, save for the previous key worker exemptions, and the universities most certainly shouldn't, either. Everything has to be focussed on inoculation now. It's the only way we're going to get out of this without an absolutely bloody massacre happening.1 -
You may well be right that the Tories are useless and Labour are brilliant.CorrectHorseBattery said:If we had repeated the March lockdown from Half Term until now we could be slowly opening up for Christmas now.
The Tories are useless.
It is just a pity that all the Labour brilliance did not manifest itself in running a competent COVID response in Wales.
Looking at England and Wales, it doesn't look like a choice between useless and brilliant.
It looks like a choice between a crap bloke with blonde hair and a crap bloke with a personality bypass.1 -
1
-
That suggests a more virulent strain. But is it the same variant as the one in SE England?Foxy said:
New varient in RSA tooIshmaelZ said:
Pedantically, they mutate randomly and those are the mutations that tend to get selected for. Substantively, lethality doesn't really matter when you have an absolutely huge supply of new hosts. Even when it does matter, speed of lethality is the key: you want your host to be milling around infecting others for as long as possible. Whether the host then dies or recovers is immaterial because a recovered and now immune victim and a corpse are of equal value to you.rottenborough said:
iirc virus have a tendency to mutate to more infectious but less fatal.another_richard said:
More infectious but less dangerous wouldn't be a bad combination.rottenborough said:
More infectious is a better way of describing this than more virulent imho.kle4 said:
Bad news, but almost convenient for him politically in giving him cover with the backbenchers and headlines he seems terrified of, without saying it is all the public's fault for being irresponsible.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Though the vulnerable would have to be told to shield while its spreading.
"In addition, clinicians have been providing anecdotal evidence of a shift in the clinical epidemiological picture- in particular noting that they are seeing a larger proportion of younger patients with no co-morbidities presenting with critical illness. The evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by this new variant."
https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/new-covid-19-variant-identified-in-sa0 -
Labour are not brilliant, I would never say they were. Have they done brilliant things in Government, absolutely.YBarddCwsc said:
You may well be right that the Tories are useless and Labour are brilliant.CorrectHorseBattery said:If we had repeated the March lockdown from Half Term until now we could be slowly opening up for Christmas now.
The Tories are useless.
It is just a pity that all the Labour brilliance did not manifest itself in running a competent COVID response in Wales.
Looking at England and Wales, it doesn't look like a choice between useless and brilliant.
It looks like a choice between a crap bloke with blonde hair and a crap bloke with a personality bypass.
Labour are in a better position than year ago, but a long way is still to go.
I think Keir would have handled it better than Johnson, that's all.0 -
Just watching BBC News at ten o' clock. I notice Johnson was out and about in his hi-viz coat, campaigning at BT Openreach in Bolton.
He really is a top campaigner.1 -
"I think Keir would have handled it better than Johnson, that's all."CorrectHorseBattery said:
Labour are not brilliant, I would never say they were. Have they done brilliant things in Government, absolutely.YBarddCwsc said:
You may well be right that the Tories are useless and Labour are brilliant.CorrectHorseBattery said:If we had repeated the March lockdown from Half Term until now we could be slowly opening up for Christmas now.
The Tories are useless.
It is just a pity that all the Labour brilliance did not manifest itself in running a competent COVID response in Wales.
Looking at England and Wales, it doesn't look like a choice between useless and brilliant.
It looks like a choice between a crap bloke with blonde hair and a crap bloke with a personality bypass.
Labour are in a better position than year ago, but a long way is still to go.
I think Keir would have handled it better than Johnson, that's all.
Scant evidence to support that notion.0 -
I'm sure you could have arranged it far faster. And I'm sure you would be saying exactly the same thing if the same group of civil servants had arranged the vaccine rollout in exactly the same time under your preferred government.IanB2 said:0 -
Honestly, yeah it's looking that way. We really should be back in lockdown now with travel restrictions. Waiting till after Christmas isn't a good idea.Black_Rook said:
Way too late. The pattern of infection rates suggests it's already spread along the Thames Estuary, infiltrated London, and is now expanding outwards into the Home Counties.OnboardG1 said:
Yes absolutely. My Grandmother could have gotten it on Wednesday but since my Mum is picking her up for Christmas she wasn't going to be able to make the appointment. She's going to call back on the 29th to get an appointment for January.FrancisUrquhart said:Telegraph reckon they will have done 500k people with the jabbie jab by Sunday.
If that's true, despite the negative stories, that would be good going.
Just need to hope the government is bright enough to put pretty serious restrictions in place to stop the new variant from getting loose out of kent. Doesn't seem to be the statistical evidence that it's more dangerous but a higher innate R0 is not a good thing.
The best that can be done now - *IF* the news about the Oxford vaccine and about the extreme contagiousness of the new Covid variant is all true - is to cancel the Christmas plan and impose a regime broadly similar to the first lockdown immediately and until further notice, and not even consider easing up until we've got as far as vaccinating everyone in the first four or five segments of the JCVI scheme. The schools shouldn't reopen in January, save for the previous key worker exemptions, and the universities most certainly shouldn't, either. Everything has to be focussed on inoculation now. It's the only way we're going to get out of this without an absolutely bloody massacre happening.0 -
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1340060066200907776
Looks like a U-turn is on the cards, thank God for that. Well done Johnson, if it is done.1 -
XXVIII Centuria, annon?Tres said:
It's the 21st century we can all choose whichever genders we like.Carnyx said:
But surely your rhetoric is much more potent if the listener doesn't stop dead mentally when the words don't have the same and consistent gender? It's like reading "An example is the trains on the East Coast line". The listener or reader is too busy to work out what has gone wrong to be stunned by your oratory as a tribune of the plebs. the Gracchi and C. Julius Caesar would never have disdained to get their genders straight.Tres said:
As a proud pleb, I'll settle for the sentiment over accuracy.YBarddCwsc said:
Carthago, Carthiginis is a feminine noun. Hence, Carthago delenda est.Tres said:
Johnson delenda est.MarqueeMark said:
There are 20% of the population like TSE and Scott_P who will never, ever be gracious enough to acknowledge that Boris could ever do anything even grudgingly worth acknowledging. Even protecting them from a killer pandemic.Mexicanpete said:CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1339993242134335488
Truly abysmal numbers for BoJo there.
The economy number is much, much better than I anticipated. All down to Rishi's free money.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1339993242134335488
Truly abysmal numbers for BoJo there.
Just 80% approval for the vaccine? To be fair to Johnson that is ingratious. Probably more by accident than design he has done well with vaccines.
Johnson is not. I think you need to check the case ending of your gerundive.😀0 -
The South African variety sounds to be similar rather than identical.
https://twitter.com/straits_times/status/1340045828266856450?s=190 -
They're just Openreach now, they don't like the BT bitMexicanpete said:Just watching BBC News at ten o' clock. I notice Johnson was out and about in his hi-viz coat, campaigning at BT Openreach in Bolton.
He really is a top campaigner.
0 -
I think it is pretty hard to make a judgement on what a reasonable rate is. It may be slower than initially predicted, slower than others, yet still be a very impressive response. Or it may be faster than predicted, but still not as fast as might be possible. I have no idea.IanB2 said:0 -
It was a double act though: what about Osborne back in as COE? Not sure he would have spent the billions that Rishi has spent on keeping people afloat.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I would have Cameron back in a heartbeat.MarqueeMark said:
I think Cameron would have been very good. His personal history with Ivan would have allowed him to project to people having to deal with family members in ICU - and do all he could to prevent that. I don't think he would have been at all squeamish about calling lockdowns.stodge said:
It's in Johnson's nature to be optimistic and upbeat. He was like that as Mayor of London and he was like that before Covid. He praises the country and the people to the skies - fair enough, most of the time a bit of inspiration doesn't go amiss. Back in July, he wanted people "cheek by jowl" at Christmas.rottenborough said:
What an f*ing mess. Yet again Johnson and co have made an epic balls up.MaxPB said:Time to cancel this 5 day free pass. It's going to result in so many unnecessary hospitalisations and deaths.
He understands the symbolic nature of Christmas in terms of it being an oasis of normality and hope in an ocean of bad news and anxiety. He wanted to save as much of that as possible - to give people something for which to aspire, to be hopeful, to be optimistic because that's the kind of Britain he wants to lead - upbeat, confident, optimistic.
Instead, he's got a pandemic and millions are frightened, frustrated and worried for the future. Yes, he can trumpet a vaccine all he wants but for the vast majority it's meaningless as they won't be getting it any time soon - 10 million vaccinated by Christmas anyone?
In his desire to keep spirits up, he panders - he treats us like children endlessly promising jam tomorrow if we keep the faith. He's not alone - many other leaders have played that game. Perhaps Merkel is one of the few who hasn't.
The problem is when the hope turns out to be a chimera - when he has to be "honest" and tell his audience what they don't want to hear - his limitations as a Prime Minister become painfully evident. He doesn't want to be the PM who lost Christmas - it would be a millstone round his political career. Quite apart from anything else, why would anyone believe a syllable he utters ever again?
I'll be honest - Theresa May, for all her flaws, would have done this so much better.0 -
@Black_Rook is right as usual, I may as well just stop posting and let them represent me 0
This discussion has been closed.