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Liz Truss moves from a 100/1 shot for next PM to 33/1 in just two weeks – politicalbetting.com
Liz Truss moves from a 100/1 shot for next PM to 33/1 in just two weeks – politicalbetting.com
Remember Liz Truss called for the abolition of the monarchy at her party conference in 1994. https://t.co/TSn1RJp4Hz
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https://twitter.com/jason_paladino/status/1339953522343899136?s=21
My main politics betting angles atm are backing Johnson to NOT go early and laying Sunak for next PM.
Building schools and proper housing, teaching the work force to read and write was part about increasing productivity and profit but it was also paternalist and liberals, I'd argue, have always felt that social responsibility toward community - it's not called "community politics" for no reason.
I'd argue liberals see strong virtue in philanthropy and would be dead against the Guizot-style enrichessez-vous culture of some modern Conservatives.
The other side of that is liberals believe in devolving responsibility and authority as far down as possible so not just from Brussels to Westminster but from Westminster to Whitehall down, not to Regional Assemblies, but to the next lower tiers of Government. Putting that power closer to the people is what it's about, not either believing in the dead controlling hand of the State or the desire of Conservatives not to allow a scintilla of power to political opponents. Johnson is a centraliser and I simply don't support his personal acquisition of power.
As to individuals, Tim Farron comes from the activist non-conformist element in the Party. That religious aspect came to define and undermine him but it's what fires up many northern and western liberals (both Wales and Cornwall). Cable was a Social Democrat and ex-Labour so yes, he's probably more of a collectivist than Clegg, Davey or Alexander.
I'd also argue liberals and socialists are as much supporters of family and country as conservatives. The difference is neither party is defined by that whereas it defines conservatism.
Truss has done a good job getting UK trade deals, that does not mean she would be better than Sunak in terms of beating Starmer.
The next leader for the Tories in power certainly will be Sunak
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Liz_Truss
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Rishi_Sunak
Its like celebrating your house burning down because you rescued the sofa.
If that’s shown to be the case, this would be a game changer, allowing us to vaccinate up to twice the number of people and greatly alleviating the suffering not just in the United States, but also in countries where vaccine shortages may take years to resolve."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/18/opinion/coronavirus-vaccine-doses.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
If it's (a) in the near future, (b) because he's had enough, and (c) when the government is generally popular, then yes Sunak would be favourite.
But if it's (a) a long time in the future, or (b) because the government is unpopular, then one would think someone elsewould be favourite.
Hancock, in contrast, started off the virus so badly he probably should have been sacked but he seems to me to have got on top of this more than anyone else in recent months. He is an increasingly assured performer.
Truss has done spectacularly well with the trade deals and this was an interesting speech but probably needs a promotion (possibly to Home Secretary) to really get in the frame.
My view, FWIW, is that Boris is going to be around for longer than many seem to think and a lot of candidates are going to come and go in that time.
Whether it would be better to give a larger number of people one dose now and a booster dose in (say) a year, rather than half the number two doses now, would be an interesting area of research. Presumably, though, it would take time and more extensive trials to figure out exactly how the dosage and number of shots changes the effectiveness and the duration of the immunity. Since the Phase III trials have been done on a specific dosing pattern, I imagine it would be hard to get regulatory approval to change the pattern.
She's getting good headlines as far as the Tory faithful are concerned lately, and seems to be flavour of the week, but there's a longer term picture. Overall, she has a mediocre performance as a minister, and her conference speeches are noted only for how poor they are. She's okay at staying out of trouble, but there isn't a "Truss faction" in the Parliamentary party, and she isn't charismatic.
Frankly, she'd need a lot to go right from here to take the crown, and I just don't see it.
Truss is 33/1 for Next Conservative leader. Different market.
That's a ridiculous comment, Sandy.
I'm not tipping Truss myself as she's not a great candidate. But there are obvious reasons you'd back Truss over Patel (who was sacked by May for lying and whose behaviour leaves a lot to be desired). As for Sunak, he plainly is favourite at the moment - but he's been able to (& indeed been required to) play the Santa Claus role so far, to be honest, and that is going to change in reality - as he knows as well as anyone. It's not that difficult being reasonably popular when you're handing out half price pizzas, less so when you're ratcheting up VAT.
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1235998322827169793?s=20
"They wouldn't be so daft as to"* meets "A matter of principle"
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1339962567930818562?s=20
*Both sides
They would however have to adopt some of the fundamental principles and ethical positions that underlie our democracy. Belief in democracy, adherence to the law which can only be changed by the traditional means of the democratic process, acceptance of equality of gender, race, sexuality and any other equalities passed by our Parliament. Our judicial and Governmental principles (although the practices are open to debate and reform). Also absolute acceptance of freedom of speech and association and the laws and customs that underpin all these things.
This is just a list off the top of my head and I am sure there would be others. But if people are willing to accept these things and wish to become British/English/Scottish etc then I would be welcoming them.
For concrete examples I would be encouraging EU nationals to stay and be welcome. I would also welcome any from Hong Kong who wish to come here.
100/1 for next PM seems fair. There seems to be something of a mismatch between that price and next Tory leader price, though, as there seems to be a better than one in three chance of the next Tory leader being next PM. Whilst Starmer has a reasonable chance next time, he's got a big hill to climb, and I can't see Johnson standing in 2028/9-ish.
They do usually want to talk to me, honest.
Guesstimating is complicated slightly by the fact that all the second immunisations have to be fitted in at some point as well, but perhaps at that rate we might expect everybody down as far as the 60 year olds to have had both shots by some point in late May or early June? That plus the arrival of better weather would presumably allow the first substantial easing of what I'm sure will be many months of really Draconian restrictions to come after Christmas. I can see England being in lockdown until at least mid-February, and most of us stuck in Tier 3 for months after that.
I'm saying that if you are a racist you might support Truss.
There is a Venn diagram for this.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/live-mayors-office-set-give-19485309
I wonder at what point a politician does take responsibility for the performance of a police force he oversees.
1. We've got a new tap in the kitchen
2. That's me finished work for the year!
3. That's it
That's a real 'smug city' opportunity (unless you think 50 is still too long).
People are wholly unrealistic on what mayors can achieve.
We could be out of the worst of this by the end of April and hopefully completely by the end of June for a decent summer of freedom.
Trouble is, as the arb is across two different bookies I`d have to tie up a heck of a lot of money until 2024 to lay it off.
Having carefully considered these matters, including the observations from all relevant parties, we can confirm that no formal disciplinary action will be taken against the clubs concerned on this occasion.
However, we would like to further clarify that anyone who chooses to take the knee will continue to receive our support as they highlight the inequality and injustice experienced by the Black community.
Translation: we know full well that it’s a political statement, hence why they’re not punishing the clubs, but don’t want to tell the truth.
What is the difference between an intelligent member of the DfE and Bigfoot?
There’s some evidence for the existence of Bigfoot.
Happy Christmas Roger 🎄 🎅
And then there's (That's enough phony personae pater patter - mods)
How can any PM justify relaxing the rules in these circumstances, this is absolutely nuts.
But believe me, acknowledging the mere possibility that we could have all the most vulnerable people in society immunised as early as May/June is progress from my point of view. I've previously assumed that my clinically extremely vulnerable husband would have to wait until April. If he's only got to sit it out until February that'd be a big result as far as I'm concerned. Possibly, but I am concerned that we won't be able to get very far with unshuttering society until the bulk of the most vulnerable have been vaccinated. Getting all the over-80s and care home residents done ought greatly to reduce the death rate, but it'll have a much more moderate effect on hospitalisations.
Talks flounder on fish.
Truss finds truss in betting odds.
Policeman's lot is not a happy one.
#morethatunites
I cannot see how she builds support from sufficient number of MPs to put her through to the membership vote. If she does manage it she has every chance, but I can`t see it.
HYUFD is your man - but I`d guess that as we stand the potential candidates with a decent MP power-base is currently Sunak, Gove and (possibly) Hunt.
Today
Yesterday
Positivity
From case data
From hospital data
It is a totemic issue and I think No Deal is likelier than many think (though, on balance, I think Johnson will agree a deal as he`s more frit of no deal than risking the ire of many leavers).
You can approach Christmas in two ways:
1. Extreme emergency, NHS and spiralling infection rates take priority over everything, lock down now, cancel Christmas
2. We're not going to cancel Christmas because too many people will lose faith in us and disobey, and/or the impact on the flagging mental health of the population will be too much
Now, in the latter case, surely the correct approach would expressly *NOT* be to shutter the hospitality industry in most of England, but positively to encourage as many people as possible to go to a restaurant for Christmas. Restaurants provide compulsive cleaning regimes, masks everywhere when not actually sat down and eating, good ventilation and blanket taking of track and trace details. Going round each others' houses provides none of these benefits. And household transmission, not hospitality, is the primary driver of infection.
They ought either to lock everybody up or get as many people as possible to celebrate in Covid-secure venues. Instead, they've simultaneously declared a virtual free-for-all on household gatherings whilst closing all the Covid-secure venues in most of the country so as to positively herd the population into cramped parties in private homes. It's the worst of all worlds and Whitty as well as Johnson has defended the approach. It's imbeclic.
Well, moving the market down initially from 100/1 to 50/1 and posting on here was anyway.
Yet, the same people argue for planning (for decades in advance) for schools, hospitals, roads, railways, airports, house building, reservoir, electricity generation etc etc.
All of which depend on the size of the population.
I personally prefer the frankness of one Deep Green of my acquaintance - she was quite clear that she expected the population to be ever increasing, with a steady reduction in allowed housing space per person.
Hopefully schools closing won't encourage folk to cram into shopping centres.
Not at all optimistic.
No, not you, Richard Tyndall, before you leap in. You are the Accidental Brexiteer.