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SystemSystem Posts: 12,682
edited June 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Nighthawks is now open

If you’re experiencing a Night Fever, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

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  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    First!
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    FPT
    Blatter says his mission isn't complete, what to totally bugger up world football?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27805019
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    At 15,Thanks Tony,message to Cameron,keep out of it.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I would add this for scots on no.20.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tiSww7FJAE
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,893
    Cheers for the thread, Mr. Eagles.

    As an aside, I revisited the first chapter of John Julius Norwich's history of Byzantium (volume one of three). Fascinating stuff.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited June 2014
    ''At 15,Thanks Tony,message to Cameron,keep out of it. ''

    Can we keep out of this? These people have taken half a country with a few nasty threats and a handful of fighters.

    That is bound to give hope to groups like this everywhere. It could spread like wildfire.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    FPT @Richard_Tyndall On my part, yes, all supposition. I remain open to alternative hypotheses.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2014
    As for the world cup i'll put a fiver on Brazil-Croatia nil nil at half time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    A UK Federation does indeed seem to be the future. That's good, right?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Tomorrow is 20 years since Nicole Brown Simpson and Ronald Goldman were murdered. Can't believe it's that long.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 13s

    Big new #IndyRef poll coming out at midnight
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    kle4 said:

    A UK Federation does indeed seem to be the future. That's good, right?

    If it is done correctly, if buggered up it could be an entire world of pain.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    kle4 said:

    A UK Federation does indeed seem to be the future. That's good, right?

    Yeah, The United Federation of Planets on Star Trek was brilliant, so yes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    I like old sports clips on Youtube - anything remotely recent and awesome from a popular sport tends to be taken down in pretty short order, and though the appropriate bodies do have to protect their intellectual property I guess, since they only ever show occasional clips at special events most of the time, it's a shame to not get easy access to awesome historical moments sometimes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    I maybe the only one on here to say this, but we have a moral responsibility to the Iraqis, we buggered up their country, we need to help them restore it.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,344
    15. And wasn't the objective of going into Iraq to suppress Al Queda? How's that going, Dubya, Tony?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    I don't think anyone foresaw no.16 leading to trouble. No one. Not at all.

    No.17 - I know I should be a lot better at grammar (hell, I don't know if that sentence is correct), although part of the problem is rules that seemingly were arbitrarily imposed with little to no historical basis, and so if grammarphobes cannot trust those, they cannot trust any of them. Or we're merely lazy.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Tykejohnno said:

    At 15,Thanks Tony,message to Cameron,keep out of it.

    I think this is the real thing, but after crying wolf so many years will the people realise it?
    I was against the Iraq war because the pretext was a lie and there were no islamic terrorists or WMD's there, but this is the real thing.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,893
    Mr. Jim, once again, I quite agree. I fear politicians will **** it up and leave England either carved up into shitty little regional assemblies or with a parliament that lacks the same clout as Scotland's.

    Mr. Eagles, a perfectly valid opinion. I'm not sure of my own stance... you may be right. But it would be courageous in the Yes, Minister sense of the word for Cameron to commit military assets to Iraq. And will Obama? Doubtful. He had to be dragged into doing anything at all with Libya and his red line in Syria turned out to be a mirage in the desert.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT
    Speedy said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    Speedy said:

    You only want to lose an election when things are bad or getting worse in the economy so that the other lot get blamed at least as much or even more. 1964, 1974 and 1992 were elections to lose.
    And by the way, ISIS has captured the Turkish consulate in Iraq holding the staff and the consul hostage and are in the process of encircling Baghdad. Not long for a major war in the middle east to break out now.

    I was wondering if this whole ISIS thing might be the Turks looking to stomp the Kurds.
    Then again that makes no sense because the Peshmerga are quite capable of standing their ground so if there's no fighting in Mosul where are the Peshmerga bods.

    Something very fishy about all this.
    They are trying to defend the whole territory, ISIS is close to Kirkuk and Arbil.
    The battlefront is huge, ranging from Karbala and Tikrit to Aleppo and Arbil, ISIS controls roughly the same territory as ancient Assyria with 15 million people and has advanced 100 miles in 3 days in Iraq on all directions.
    No Peshmerga means this story is bull.

    Something fishy is going on.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I maybe the only one on here to say this, but we have a moral responsibility to the Iraqis, we buggered up their country, we need to help them restore it.

    No not the only one, I think refusing to help would be an act of abject moral cowardice.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    SeanT said:

    taffys said:

    ''At 15,Thanks Tony,message to Cameron,keep out of it. ''

    Can we keep out of this? These people have taken half a country with a few nasty threats and a handful of fighters.

    That is bound to give hope to groups like this everywhere. It could spread like wildfire.

    Again, more evidence that Blair should be tried and prosecuted for his catastrophic negligence and needless errors, if not his actual mendacity.

    If a company director can be convicted for *corporate manslaughter*, I see NO reason why Blair cannot be held responsible for the vastly greater, globally disastrous consequences of his "mistakes".
    amen to that
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    taffys said:

    ''At 15,Thanks Tony,message to Cameron,keep out of it. ''

    Can we keep out of this? These people have taken half a country with a few nasty threats and a handful of fighters.

    That is bound to give hope to groups like this everywhere. It could spread like wildfire.

    The problem of course is such groups seem to have plenty of support or, even if the support is tiny, no-one with will to oppose them in their bases of operation, and what can we do if such people retain popularity/are not hated enough to be properly opposed?
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    obvious ramping plus no peshmerga mean this story is bull
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MrJones said:

    FPT

    Speedy said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    Speedy said:

    You only want to lose an election when things are bad or getting worse in the economy so that the other lot get blamed at least as much or even more. 1964, 1974 and 1992 were elections to lose.
    And by the way, ISIS has captured the Turkish consulate in Iraq holding the staff and the consul hostage and are in the process of encircling Baghdad. Not long for a major war in the middle east to break out now.

    I was wondering if this whole ISIS thing might be the Turks looking to stomp the Kurds.
    Then again that makes no sense because the Peshmerga are quite capable of standing their ground so if there's no fighting in Mosul where are the Peshmerga bods.

    Something very fishy about all this.
    They are trying to defend the whole territory, ISIS is close to Kirkuk and Arbil.
    The battlefront is huge, ranging from Karbala and Tikrit to Aleppo and Arbil, ISIS controls roughly the same territory as ancient Assyria with 15 million people and has advanced 100 miles in 3 days in Iraq on all directions.
    No Peshmerga means this story is bull.

    Something fishy is going on.
    The Peshmerga have just defeated ISIS for now in Kirkuk this afternoon.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,786
    FPT: Thanks Speedy, very helpful! You may have won me a vote...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,893
    Mr. Jones, or others, what's Peshmerga, and what does it mean in the context of ISIS?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    From the Times, I can't find the original German article

    A poll for Stern magazine yesterday revealed an alarming level of “Brexit fatigue” among Germans, with just 19 per cent agreeing that Mrs Merkel should put relations with Britain before support for the former Luxembourg prime minister.

    “Merkel should support Juncker against British resistance,” ran the headline in Sternabove the Forsa poll results. “Sixty per cent of Germans are of the opinion that the chancellor should support Jean-Claude Juncker against the opposition of the British,” it added.

    “While 51 per cent of Germans would regret a British departure from the EU, 41 per cent could accept a withdrawal.”
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I maybe the only one on here to say this, but we have a moral responsibility to the Iraqis, we buggered up their country, we need to help them restore it.

    Nope,we(British people) didn't bugger up Iraq,a few at the top did.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    edited June 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    A UK Federation does indeed seem to be the future. That's good, right?

    Yeah, The United Federation of Planets on Star Trek was brilliant, so yes.
    The human dominance of the Federation always struck me as suspicious. What, they couldn't slap a few more forehead accessories on more extras? Come on.

    Then again, perhaps the Human population was as dominant within the Federation as England's is to the UK.

    I'm definitely in the camp that it could work out just fine, a Federation, but I fear the future. That's what makes me a Unionist I guess.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Jim, once again, I quite agree. I fear politicians will **** it up and leave England either carved up into shitty little regional assemblies or with a parliament that lacks the same clout as Scotland's.

    Mr. Eagles, a perfectly valid opinion. I'm not sure of my own stance... you may be right. But it would be courageous in the Yes, Minister sense of the word for Cameron to commit military assets to Iraq. And will Obama? Doubtful. He had to be dragged into doing anything at all with Libya and his red line in Syria turned out to be a mirage in the desert.

    Mr Dancer a regional assembly basis wouldn't work due to artificiality, whereas an English Parliament would possibly be destabilising of any putative federation as it would have too much political gravity so to speak. I'm not sure but I think a vast rejig of local govt with sweeping new powers for counties and a new financial settlement.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,893
    Mr. Eagles, if we left the Germans might well regret it. They would become 1 of 2 major powers than than 1 of 3, but they'd also lose their most significant sensible economic ally and the only other (I believe) major contributor.

    Surely our departure would give Club Med the whip hand, by sheer weight of numbers?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2014
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Jones, or others, what's Peshmerga, and what does it mean in the context of ISIS?

    The Kurdish militia.
    ISIS so far has defeated regular armies in Sunni areas, so the test is now if they can defeat militias and from other ethnicities.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,893
    Mr. Jim, must disagree with you. An English Parliament is what's needed.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Mr Dancer is France really a major power?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,893
    Mr. Speedy, ah, right. Was/is Mosul within the Kurdish sphere of influence?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @ToryJim
    The French have aircraft carriers + planes and nukes. According to the previous thread that makes them up with the big boys.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    On David Cameron saying UKIP voters will come back to the Tories, I can't see it happening enough. If you look at people like me and Sean Fear on this board, it seems unlikely. Of the three issues that Cameron cites - the economy, Europe, immigration - only the first seems plausible. On Europe, the Tories have to resort to making misleading claims about budgets and bailouts, and not much is going to change there. On immigration, they have completely failed to bring down overall numbers to any major extent, and the main news to come will be them missing their target. He also fails to mention gay marriage, which matters a lot to social conservatives, and civil liberties, which matters a lot to classical liberals.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    Okay, found the Stern article on the Brexit/Juncker polling.

    http://www.stern.de/politik/ausland/stern-umfrage-merkel-soll-juncker-gegen-widerstand-der-briten-stuetzen-2116207.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    edited June 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From the Times, I can't find the original German article

    A poll for Stern magazine yesterday revealed an alarming level of “Brexit fatigue” among Germans, with just 19 per cent agreeing that Mrs Merkel should put relations with Britain before support for the former Luxembourg prime minister.

    “Merkel should support Juncker against British resistance,” ran the headline in Sternabove the Forsa poll results. “Sixty per cent of Germans are of the opinion that the chancellor should support Jean-Claude Juncker against the opposition of the British,” it added.

    “While 51 per cent of Germans would regret a British departure from the EU, 41 per cent could accept a withdrawal.”

    An acceptable position to take, accepting our withdrawal (though playing up Juncker's 'democratic mandate' is nonsense, for all I think it was a better interpretation than what was there before, but it's not going against democracy not to accept it), although in my mind the fatigue is not entirely our fault. We do like to play as the most obstinate member of the EU, because we often are, and the more committed members like to use us as an example of, well obstinance, by playing up how isolated our position supposedly is, even if it is not true.

    EU referendum as soon as possible. Either we get something out of it and agree to stop grumbling so loud, or we put up and shut up like they want, or we leave and either we suffer or they realize it was handy to have us around after all, perhaps both.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Again, more evidence that Blair should be tried and prosecuted for his catastrophic negligence and needless errors, if not his actual mendacity.''

    Iraq could be just the start.

    Groups like this all over the world must be saying to themselves 'now, brothers, now is the time...our enemies are weak cowards....'

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Jones, or others, what's Peshmerga, and what does it mean in the context of ISIS?

    It's the Kurdish militia. They secured the Kurdish area of Iraq from both AQ and Saddam early on in the war and have had a semi-detached autonomous zone including Mosul ever since.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Tykejohnno said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I maybe the only one on here to say this, but we have a moral responsibility to the Iraqis, we buggered up their country, we need to help them restore it.

    Nope,we(British people) didn't bugger up Iraq,a few at the top did.
    Who were promptly re-elected to office by the British people.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Islamism also looks like it's going on at Bradford schools too:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-27779832

    How many more cases will come out?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,893
    Mr. Taffys, jein. Certain countries are vulnerable, but I'd suggest many of those are already in such a state.

    Jordan was mentioned on the news as the next potential country that could fall prey to black flag lunatics.

    It also shows the folly of cutting the Defence budget. We need to be able to act not only to defend our sovereign territory but to attack strategic threats.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Speedy, ah, right. Was/is Mosul within the Kurdish sphere of influence?

    Half of Mosul on the east of the Tigris river is Kurdish, so it was a 50/50 share with the iraqi government, I think all kurds have fled Mosul that's why there are reports of up to half a million fleeing the city yesterday.
    So far the kurds have defended their capital Arbil and their largest city Kirkuk, but ISIS though defeated in Kirkuk today is still on the outskirts of both.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Jim, must disagree with you. An English Parliament is what's needed.

    I think it would make the overarching institutions entirely unworkable Mr Dancer. If regions weren't artificial I think that would be better but then again I'd never have set up devolution to Scotland and Wales like we have it and we can't roll back the crap aspects of devolution so we need to find a route through the morass.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    taffys said:

    ''Again, more evidence that Blair should be tried and prosecuted for his catastrophic negligence and needless errors, if not his actual mendacity.''

    Iraq could be just the start.

    Groups like this all over the world must be saying to themselves 'now, brothers, now is the time...our enemies are weak cowards....'

    Could it be a modern day Tet offensive by any chance? Militarily ISIS could be devastated if defeated, especially if they overreach, but the media war seems to have been won already - they are so committed and seemingly successful against much greater numbers, they must gather up support from somewhere, so what can be done, can they be stopped, will be the argument.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,893
    Cheers, Mr. Jones.

    Mr. Socrates, I'd suggest playing a drinking game, taking a shot for every time racism/Islamophobia is mentioned, but I fear your liver would not withstand the assault.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    SeanT said:

    fpt

    As others have noted, big moves on the indyref betting odds today.

    One bookie - boyleexpress (who he?) - actually has NO at 2/13. I cannot remember NO-vote odds as mean as that.

    The world finally realises I'm right, and that the referendum will deliver a big, fat NO.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    From 21st April 2014 on pb.com:

    'One reason he (Bashar Assad) has had some success is that the insurgents are as split as ever and also quite a number of the radicals who are not massive in numbers but are certainly capable in fighting terms have mysteriously left the country..and gone to Iraq.'

    None of what is happening in Iraq now is a surprise. The Sunni radicals shifted some focus and manpower a while back. The performance of the Iraqi army and police appears to be desperate. Two divisions have vanished into thin air, one of them leaving most of its equipment that ISIS got its hands on.

    ISIS do have support from their Sunni brothers, who are not necessarily fans of ISIS and certainly never joined the radical front during the days of insurgency against the Americans.They can't stand the Shi'ite hegemony however under Al Maliki. This may reflect why those divisions disappeared without much of a fight if they had a fair number of Sunnis in their number. The only other reason is that they simply weren't very good or weren't well led, take your pick.

    Will ISIS march on Bagdhad? Stories have it they are going to try but its a stretch and you'd assume that the Iraqi forces, who appear to be forming up on a retrenchment around the capital are not going to prove a walkover. Certainly many of their more capable units are in the city. Al Maliki has also started to home in on the sectarian war aspect as part of his talk.

    Ironically the one group that could have taken on the ISIS forces in Mosul, the Kurdish Peshmerga, were warned off by Al Maliki.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Vaguely on topic, I've found out by direct personal experience just how big a readership pb has. Two of my articles have been linked to by TSE on his Nighthawks thread, and they both have by far the biggest page counts of any that I've written.

    Curiously, the post that I regard as by some way my weakest has a relatively high post count. It has a good title, which I suppose is what interests the casual reader.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,893
    Cheers, Mr. Speedy.

    Mr. Jim, well, quite. Devolution was a ****ing stupid idea, entirely unnecessary and to the detriment of the UK (or Labour Party policy, as it is formally known).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt

    As others have noted, big moves on the indyref betting odds today.

    One bookie - boyleexpress (who he?) - actually has NO at 2/13. I cannot remember NO-vote odds as mean as that.

    The world finally realises I'm right, and that the referendum will deliver a big, fat NO.
    I hope you're right - even my eternally pessimistic soul is starting to get a little more hopeful.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,893
    Mr. Y0kel, always interesting to read your thoughts on this sort of matter.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Lib Dem support sinks to record low of 6% - lowest since @YouGov began in 2001. LAB 36%, CON 34%, UKIP 14%, LD 6%.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From the Times, I can't find the original German article

    A poll for Stern magazine yesterday revealed an alarming level of “Brexit fatigue” among Germans, with just 19 per cent agreeing that Mrs Merkel should put relations with Britain before support for the former Luxembourg prime minister.

    “Merkel should support Juncker against British resistance,” ran the headline in Sternabove the Forsa poll results. “Sixty per cent of Germans are of the opinion that the chancellor should support Jean-Claude Juncker against the opposition of the British,” it added.

    “While 51 per cent of Germans would regret a British departure from the EU, 41 per cent could accept a withdrawal.”

    An acceptable position to take, accepting our withdrawal (though playing up Juncker's 'democratic mandate' is nonsense, for all I think it was a better interpretation than what was there before, but it's not going against democracy not to accept it), although in my mind the fatigue is not entirely our fault. We do like to play as the most obstinate member of the EU, because we often are, and the more committed members like to use us as an example of, well obstinance, by playing up how isolated our position supposedly is, even if it is not true.

    EU referendum as soon as possible. Either we get something out of it and agree to stop grumbling so loud, or we put up and shut up like they want, or we leave and either we suffer or they realize it was handy to have us around after all, perhaps both.
    That's not true at all. France is the most obstinate member of the EU. When we handed over half our rebate, they reneged on the promise to reform the CAP. They have steadfastly refused to ever cut the damn thing. They refused to even allow the beginning of trade negotiations with the US until they got ring fencing for their prioritised sectors up front. Yet somehow the UK gets all the crap. It's just because, deep down, the Europeans don't like us very much. We're too free trading, too pro-American, and too global for their liking.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    No.1 - Is it really a big deal and, if so, are Labour actually doing something about it?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    taffys said:

    ''Again, more evidence that Blair should be tried and prosecuted for his catastrophic negligence and needless errors, if not his actual mendacity.''

    Iraq could be just the start.

    Groups like this all over the world must be saying to themselves 'now, brothers, now is the time...our enemies are weak cowards....'

    Its clear to say that ISIS is an american creation by accident, like the Taliban (they wanted to get rid of one enemy and they created something worse).
    Though the Taliban could only dream of the money and heavy american weaponry ISIS has, that is the key success of ISIS, american aid.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,893
    edited June 2014
    Mr. P, just statistical noise, but still, 6% is not necessarily to Nick Clegg's advantage.

    Edited extra bit: anyway, off for the night.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cheers, Mr. Speedy.

    Mr. Jim, well, quite. Devolution was a ****ing stupid idea, entirely unnecessary and to the detriment of the UK (or Labour Party policy, as it is formally known).

    Asymmetric devolution was useless. Piecemeal constitutional reform is always a catastrophe. We should have had a destination in mind before embarking on the journey.
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Can water cannons be adapted to help drain towns during winter floods?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    antifrank said:

    Vaguely on topic, I've found out by direct personal experience just how big a readership pb has. Two of my articles have been linked to by TSE on his Nighthawks thread, and they both have by far the biggest page counts of any that I've written.

    Curiously, the post that I regard as by some way my weakest has a relatively high post count. It has a good title, which I suppose is what interests the casual reader.

    One of the things I've noticed in my last few stints of editing PB sometimes the oddest topics get the most views.

    As a rule, recently, UKIP or Indyref pieces get a lot of views.

    If you can back trace the IP addresses of your viewers, it can be fun.

    Mike once told me of the back trace Robert once did, you'd be surprised how many people at Westminster read PB.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Lib Dem support sinks to record low of 6% - lowest since @YouGov began in 2001. LAB 36%, CON 34%, UKIP 14%, LD 6%.

    LOL!

    Broken, sleazy Lib-Dems... (what comes next? "On the slide" hardly does it justice!)

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    So the Lab lead with YouGov is 2 points for the second day in a row, and was 3 a few days earlier.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    16 is truly damning. The Coalition's cuts have basically ended the UK as a major military power.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    kle4 said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I maybe the only one on here to say this, but we have a moral responsibility to the Iraqis, we buggered up their country, we need to help them restore it.

    Nope,we(British people) didn't bugger up Iraq,a few at the top did.
    Who were promptly re-elected to office by the British people.

    So what as that to do with my answer but I will give you this - people still voted labour who were against the war,labour also lost thousands of voters and the tory opposition was not a option with they cheerleading role.

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Lib Dem support sinks to record low of 6% - lowest since @YouGov began in 2001. LAB 36%, CON 34%, UKIP 14%, LD 6%.

    LOL!

    Broken, sleazy Lib-Dems... (what comes next? "On the slide" hardly does it justice!)

    But according to Danny at 3 the Lib Dems will be huge in 10 years ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Socrates said:

    16 is truly damning. The Coalition's cuts have basically ended the UK as a major military power.

    Maybe so, and it worries me that we no longer have the array of options we once had, but although people may have concerns about the risks, I thought slashing the budget was pretty popular. People do not want to pay what it requires to be a major military power, and the parties are not going to stand up to the people on that.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:

    I have no idea how we get round this. Something will have to give. Either British Islam "modernises", or Britain accepts that a severe new kind of social conservatism is quickly gaining ground, changing our country. The third alternative is too awful to contemplate.

    The first option is the only acceptable one. And it will only happen by Islam being too embarrassed about its views when it tries to defend it publicly. Right now, the left-liberal censorship means they only talk to themselves about social positions, and the "Overton window" is far more reactionary than it would be if this was a public debate. Every backwards part of Islam needs to be publicly criticised until the Mosques realise they are harming their reputation with these positions, and modify them to fit with modern Western society as necessary. This is what happened with mainstream Christianity, with Mormonism over polygamy etc. It would happen fairly quickly with Islam, if the Left stopped covering for them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    Islamism also looks like it's going on at Bradford schools too:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-27779832

    How many more cases will come out?

    My guess: quite a few. I think it will be similar to Muslim gangrape/grooming. Now the dam has broken and the liberal censorship has ended, we will suddenly *realise* that Muslim fundamentalists have been attempting to Islamise state schools across the country.
    A scary thought, but as softly and woolly a liberal as I am, I cannot ignore it as a possibility, as I am reminded of an interview I once saw of an EDF leader I think, or English Democrat perhaps, talking about muslim grooming gangs in his neighbourhoods which no-one would talk about, and it turns out there was more truth to his words than I could have believed, even if the reality will never live up to the hysteria.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Lib Dem support sinks to record low of 6% - lowest since @YouGov began in 2001. LAB 36%, CON 34%, UKIP 14%, LD 6%.

    LOL!

    Broken, sleazy Lib-Dems... (what comes next? "On the slide" hardly does it justice!)

    Martin Day's dreams are coming true - yellow taxi's and all ;-)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So the Lab lead with YouGov is 2 points for the second day in a row, and was 3 a few days earlier.

    That doesn't sound like a big movement, but the LD still gradually falling is the bigger news.
    If (I say If) the LD get 6% in the GE will even the leadership team manage to retain their seats?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    Vaguely on topic, I've found out by direct personal experience just how big a readership pb has. Two of my articles have been linked to by TSE on his Nighthawks thread, and they both have by far the biggest page counts of any that I've written.

    Curiously, the post that I regard as by some way my weakest has a relatively high post count. It has a good title, which I suppose is what interests the casual reader.

    One of the things I've noticed in my last few stints of editing PB sometimes the oddest topics get the most views.

    As a rule, recently, UKIP or Indyref pieces get a lot of views.

    If you can back trace the IP addresses of your viewers, it can be fun.

    Mike once told me of the back trace Robert once did, you'd be surprised how many people at Westminster read PB.
    I can't backtrace IP addresses (or if I can, I don't know how). I can see where I have readers though. Intriguingly, I have a devoted reader in Ukraine who evidently has me in RSS. Moldova, Tajikistan and Singapore regularly feature in the listings.

    I have absolutely no idea what interest my posts could have for anyone from those countries.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @SeanT

    I wonder when the tide will break on election rigging.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Socrates said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From the Times, I can't find the original German article

    A poll for Stern magazine yesterday revealed an alarming level of “Brexit fatigue” among Germans, with just 19 per cent agreeing that Mrs Merkel should put relations with Britain before support for the former Luxembourg prime minister.

    “Merkel should support Juncker against British resistance,” ran the headline in Sternabove the Forsa poll results. “Sixty per cent of Germans are of the opinion that the chancellor should support Jean-Claude Juncker against the opposition of the British,” it added.

    “While 51 per cent of Germans would regret a British departure from the EU, 41 per cent could accept a withdrawal.”

    An acceptable position to take, accepting our withdrawal (though playing up Juncker's 'democratic mandate' is nonsense, for all I think it was a better interpretation than what was there before, but it's not going against democracy not to accept it), although in my mind the fatigue is not entirely our fault. We do like to play as the most obstinate member of the EU, because we often are, and the more committed members like to use us as an example of, well obstinance, by playing up how isolated our position supposedly is, even if it is not true.

    EU referendum as soon as possible. Either we get something out of it and agree to stop grumbling so loud, or we put up and shut up like they want, or we leave and either we suffer or they realize it was handy to have us around after all, perhaps both.
    That's not true at all. France is the most obstinate member of the EU. When we handed over half our rebate, they reneged on the promise to reform the CAP. They have steadfastly refused to ever cut the damn thing. They refused to even allow the beginning of trade negotiations with the US until they got ring fencing for their prioritised sectors up front. Yet somehow the UK gets all the crap. It's just because, deep down, the Europeans don't like us very much. We're too free trading, too pro-American, and too global for their liking.
    Well I did say we are 'often' the most obstinate, not always, but it is that we play that up for home consumption, and the others play it up for their consumption, that makes it seem like it always the case no doubt.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2014
    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From the Times, I can't find the original German article

    A poll for Stern magazine yesterday revealed an alarming level of “Brexit fatigue” among Germans, with just 19 per cent agreeing that Mrs Merkel should put relations with Britain before support for the former Luxembourg prime minister.

    “Merkel should support Juncker against British resistance,” ran the headline in Sternabove the Forsa poll results. “Sixty per cent of Germans are of the opinion that the chancellor should support Jean-Claude Juncker against the opposition of the British,” it added.

    “While 51 per cent of Germans would regret a British departure from the EU, 41 per cent could accept a withdrawal.”



    EU referendum as soon as possible. Either we get something out of it and agree to stop grumbling so loud, or we put up and shut up like they want, or we leave and either we suffer or they realize it was handy to have us around after all, perhaps both.
    That's not true at all. France is the most obstinate member of the EU. When we handed over half our rebate, they reneged on the promise to reform the CAP. They have steadfastly refused to ever cut the damn thing. They refused to even allow the beginning of trade negotiations with the US until they got ring fencing for their prioritised sectors up front. Yet somehow the UK gets all the crap. It's just because, deep down, the Europeans don't like us very much. We're too free trading, too pro-American, and too global for their liking.
    Plus we won the second world war, and were heroically brave, and defeated the Nazis, unconquered - after, at one point - standing entirely and globally alone - when France and everywhere else had been overrun.

    The French especially can never forgive us for that. It gives them a huge moral inferiority complex. It irritates many others.
    If you gave away tons of money on a simple promise by an elected politician you deserve what you get.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Gods, if the LDs sink any further, unless I decide to vote Tory in 2015 I may end up being the only person left in the country who votes LD, they being the only other viable option of winning in my area(given the LD vote held up in the locals of 2013 and with Labour nowhere and even a 30% UKIP surge not enough) though viable is stretching it
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,584
    edited June 2014
    FPT

    Nick P

    "Question I've been asked - how can one discover the market value of a house in 1991? I have no clue - anyone have any idea?"

    If you go onto Rightmove or one of the other sale sites you can look for house prices by street. This will give you both the current sale price of any houses on the market and also the price the last time it was sold. If the house you are looking at was last sold in 1991 then that price should be listed.

    Edit : Alternatively you can go and look at the Land registry for the property which has all the sale values since it was built. Not sure if that can be done online though.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I maybe the only one on here to say this, but we have a moral responsibility to the Iraqis, we buggered up their country, we need to help them restore it.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I maybe the only one on here to say this, but we have a moral responsibility to the Iraqis, we buggered up their country, we need to help them restore it.

    Arguably this argument could have been made in 2002
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    Islamism also looks like it's going on at Bradford schools too:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-27779832

    How many more cases will come out?

    My guess: quite a few. I think it will be similar to Muslim gangrape/grooming. Now the dam has broken and the liberal censorship has ended, we will suddenly *realise* that Muslim fundamentalists have been attempting to Islamise state schools across the country.
    A scary thought, but as softly and woolly a liberal as I am, I cannot ignore it as a possibility, as I am reminded of an interview I once saw of an EDF leader I think, or English Democrat perhaps, talking about muslim grooming gangs in his neighbourhoods which no-one would talk about, and it turns out there was more truth to his words than I could have believed, even if the reality will never live up to the hysteria.
    I remember when I recounted the story of a teacher friend of mine, who asked her teaching assistants to speak in English as they would often natter in Bengali. They reacted angrily, proceeded to speak in Bengali a lot more and started bullying her. She complained to her headteacher, who called her racist, and then to the NUT, who backed the headteacher.

    When I mentioned this on here, I was told I was making it up as it was implausible. In comparison to the Islamist teachings, its obviously a far more mild case which is obviously much more believable now. As I've said a number of times, there's a fundamental disconnect in liberal-left thinking that causes this. They believe they stand up for the marginalised who are victimised by the privileged. As they consider Muslims to be a marginalised group, it doesn't compute to them that it can be them doing the victimisation. They are left with having to apply the model to those criticising the Islamists, where they can put their usual white British grouping as the oppressors, and the Muslims as the victims again.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics · 3 mins
    Osborne to introduce tough new laws to ensure all sinning bankers go to jail: http://bit.ly/SA8m1c

  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    'So the Lab lead with YouGov is 2 points for the second day in a row, and was 3 a few days earlier.'
    Crossover by Friday on this trend. Tories on course for victory again, this time (the hundredth time) for real.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So the Lab lead with YouGov is 2 points for the second day in a row, and was 3 a few days earlier.

    That doesn't sound like a big movement, but the LD still gradually falling is the bigger news.
    If (I say If) the LD get 6% in the GE will even the leadership team manage to retain their seats?
    Farron is invincible I think, Danny won't. If it collapses and is 6% Clegg won't.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    The Liberal score is MOE but seriously what will it take for the Libs to pull the plug? 5% 4% 3% 2% 1%???

    Maybe Mark Senior will let us know.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    kle4 said:

    Gods, if the LDs sink any further, unless I decide to vote Tory in 2015 I may end up being the only person left in the country who votes LD, they being the only other viable option of winning in my area(given the LD vote held up in the locals of 2013 and with Labour nowhere and even a 30% UKIP surge not enough) though viable is stretching it

    At 6% the only thing that the LD can do is lower the barrier for UKIP getting seats, this poll gives LD just 10 seats, if they drop to 5% LD get 8 seats and UKIP gets 1 on 21% on the (in my opinion flawed) UNS models.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:

    Plus we won the second world war, and were heroically brave, and defeated the Nazis, unconquered - after, at one point - standing entirely and globally alone - when France and everywhere else had been overrun.

    The French especially can never forgive us for that. It gives them a huge moral inferiority complex. It irritates many others.

    It's actually worse than that. The French PM, after their militarily collapse, wanted to retreat to North Africa to continue the good fight with a "we will never surrender" mentality. The rest of the French government turned on him, forced him to resign, and implemented a pro-collaboration fascist government. The fact the British responded to our military collapse by retreating overseas and, despite endless suffering, maintained our "We Will Never Surrender", mentality when all seemed lost, is deeply embarrassing to them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    Vaguely on topic, I've found out by direct personal experience just how big a readership pb has. Two of my articles have been linked to by TSE on his Nighthawks thread, and they both have by far the biggest page counts of any that I've written.

    Curiously, the post that I regard as by some way my weakest has a relatively high post count. It has a good title, which I suppose is what interests the casual reader.

    One of the things I've noticed in my last few stints of editing PB sometimes the oddest topics get the most views.

    As a rule, recently, UKIP or Indyref pieces get a lot of views.

    If you can back trace the IP addresses of your viewers, it can be fun.

    Mike once told me of the back trace Robert once did, you'd be surprised how many people at Westminster read PB.
    I can't backtrace IP addresses (or if I can, I don't know how). I can see where I have readers though. Intriguingly, I have a devoted reader in Ukraine who evidently has me in RSS. Moldova, Tajikistan and Singapore regularly feature in the listings.

    I have absolutely no idea what interest my posts could have for anyone from those countries.
    Ask Robert he should be able to tell you.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,257
    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From the Times, I can't find the original German article

    A poll for Stern magazine yesterday revealed an alarming level of “Brexit fatigue” among Germans, with just 19 per cent agreeing that Mrs Merkel should put relations with Britain before support for the former Luxembourg prime minister.

    “Merkel should support Juncker against British resistance,” ran the headline in Sternabove the Forsa poll results. “Sixty per cent of Germans are of the opinion that the chancellor should support Jean-Claude Juncker against the opposition of the British,” it added.

    “While 51 per cent of Germans would regret a British departure from the EU, 41 per cent could accept a withdrawal.”

    An acceptable position to take, accepting our withdrawal (though playing up Juncker's 'democratic mandate' is nonsense, for all I think it was a better interpretation than what was there before, but it's not going against democracy not to accept it), although in my mind the fatigue is not entirely our fault. We do like to play as the most obstinate member of the EU, because we often are, and the more committed members like to use us as an example of, well obstinance, by playing up how isolated our position supposedly is, even if it is not true.

    EU referendum as soon as possible. Either we get something out of it and agree to stop grumbling so loud, or we put up and shut up like they want, or we leave and either we suffer or they realize it was handy to have us around after all, perhaps both.
    That's not true at all. France is the most obstinate member of the EU. When we handed over half our rebate, they reneged on the promise to reform the CAP. They have steadfastly refused to ever cut the damn thing. They refused to even allow the beginning of trade negotiations with the US until they got ring fencing for their prioritised sectors up front. Yet somehow the UK gets all the crap. It's just because, deep down, the Europeans don't like us very much. We're too free trading, too pro-American, and too global for their liking.
    Plus we won the second world war, and were heroically brave, and defeated the Nazis, unconquered - after, at one point - standing entirely and globally alone - when France and everywhere else had been overrun.

    The French especially can never forgive us for that. It gives them a huge moral inferiority complex. It irritates many others.
    'standing entirely and globally alone'

    apart from an Empire upon which 'the sun never set'.

    There was a lot more pink on the world map of 1941 than brown.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Fifa president Sepp Blatter said "his mission is not finished" as he was cleared to stand for a fifth term.

    He's been President since 1998! Why the hell is your mission not finished by now, Mr Blatter, how bad can you be at your job if that is the case?

    Although looking at the list of Fifa Presidents, they appear to last a long time in the job.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_FIFA
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27805019
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    Vaguely on topic, I've found out by direct personal experience just how big a readership pb has. Two of my articles have been linked to by TSE on his Nighthawks thread, and they both have by far the biggest page counts of any that I've written.

    Curiously, the post that I regard as by some way my weakest has a relatively high post count. It has a good title, which I suppose is what interests the casual reader.

    One of the things I've noticed in my last few stints of editing PB sometimes the oddest topics get the most views.

    As a rule, recently, UKIP or Indyref pieces get a lot of views.

    If you can back trace the IP addresses of your viewers, it can be fun.

    Mike once told me of the back trace Robert once did, you'd be surprised how many people at Westminster read PB.
    I can't backtrace IP addresses (or if I can, I don't know how). I can see where I have readers though. Intriguingly, I have a devoted reader in Ukraine who evidently has me in RSS. Moldova, Tajikistan and Singapore regularly feature in the listings.

    I have absolutely no idea what interest my posts could have for anyone from those countries.
    Ask Robert he should be able to tell you.
    I'm not that interested! I put my posts up for my own benefit, not anyone else's. If others find them useful or enjoy them, that's a bonus.

    It's mildly interesting, that's all.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Something for Welsh fans. 1958 World cup.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVttYZBzBJg


  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @antifrank

    http://whatismyipaddress.com/ip-lookup

    It will only give you a general location, if you need more info, it is more complex to do
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    Vaguely on topic, I've found out by direct personal experience just how big a readership pb has. Two of my articles have been linked to by TSE on his Nighthawks thread, and they both have by far the biggest page counts of any that I've written.

    Curiously, the post that I regard as by some way my weakest has a relatively high post count. It has a good title, which I suppose is what interests the casual reader.

    One of the things I've noticed in my last few stints of editing PB sometimes the oddest topics get the most views.

    As a rule, recently, UKIP or Indyref pieces get a lot of views.

    If you can back trace the IP addresses of your viewers, it can be fun.

    Mike once told me of the back trace Robert once did, you'd be surprised how many people at Westminster read PB.
    I can't backtrace IP addresses (or if I can, I don't know how). I can see where I have readers though. Intriguingly, I have a devoted reader in Ukraine who evidently has me in RSS. Moldova, Tajikistan and Singapore regularly feature in the listings.

    I have absolutely no idea what interest my posts could have for anyone from those countries.
    Ask Robert he should be able to tell you.
    I'm not that interested! I put my posts up for my own benefit, not anyone else's. If others find them useful or enjoy them, that's a bonus.

    It's mildly interesting, that's all.
    I'm finding them very useful to read (and help me form by betting positions)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,786
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    FPT

    Nick P

    "Question I've been asked - how can one discover the market value of a house in 1991? I have no clue - anyone have any idea?"

    If you go onto Rightmove or one of the other sale sites you can look for house prices by street. This will give you both the current sale price of any houses on the market and also the price the last time it was sold. If the house you are looking at was last sold in 1991 then that price should be listed.

    Edit : Alternatively you can go and look at the Land registry for the property which has all the sale values since it was built. Not sure if that can be done online though.

    Thanks very much!

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Breaking News people, Turkey has entered the war, NATO not far behind:

    ConflictReporter @MiddleEast_BRK · 1m
    #BreakingReport Turkish air force jets are bombing targets around #Mosul city tonight. #ISIS positions alleged aims.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,257
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I maybe the only one on here to say this, but we have a moral responsibility to the Iraqis, we buggered up their country, we need to help them restore it.

    Have you got round to burning your Conservative membership card yet ?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/10890333/Cuts-harm-Armys-ability-to-respond-to-international-crises.html
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    Vaguely on topic, I've found out by direct personal experience just how big a readership pb has. Two of my articles have been linked to by TSE on his Nighthawks thread, and they both have by far the biggest page counts of any that I've written.

    Curiously, the post that I regard as by some way my weakest has a relatively high post count. It has a good title, which I suppose is what interests the casual reader.

    One of the things I've noticed in my last few stints of editing PB sometimes the oddest topics get the most views.

    As a rule, recently, UKIP or Indyref pieces get a lot of views.

    If you can back trace the IP addresses of your viewers, it can be fun.

    Mike once told me of the back trace Robert once did, you'd be surprised how many people at Westminster read PB.
    I can't backtrace IP addresses (or if I can, I don't know how). I can see where I have readers though. Intriguingly, I have a devoted reader in Ukraine who evidently has me in RSS. Moldova, Tajikistan and Singapore regularly feature in the listings.

    I have absolutely no idea what interest my posts could have for anyone from those countries.
    Ask Robert he should be able to tell you.
    I'm not that interested! I put my posts up for my own benefit, not anyone else's. If others find them useful or enjoy them, that's a bonus.

    It's mildly interesting, that's all.
    I'm finding them very useful to read (and help me form by betting positions)
    They are excellent. Can we have a sticky link to them in the right margin? I would also like links to AndyJS's target seats lists, which are fantastic for betting.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Wages sliding well back behind prices again. Not going away this.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:

    Plus we won the second world war, and were heroically brave, and defeated the Nazis, unconquered - after, at one point - standing entirely and globally alone - when France and everywhere else had been overrun.

    The French especially can never forgive us for that. It gives them a huge moral inferiority complex. It irritates many others.

    It's actually worse than that. The French PM, after their militarily collapse, wanted to retreat to North Africa to continue the good fight with a "we will never surrender" mentality. The rest of the French government turned on him, forced him to resign, and implemented a pro-collaboration fascist government. The fact the British responded to our military collapse by retreating overseas and, despite endless suffering, maintained our "We Will Never Surrender", mentality when all seemed lost, is deeply embarrassing to them.
    Yup. I've got good French friends who - literally - squirm with embarrassment when all this is mentioned. Heck, we got lucky, we were an island. If we'd been part of the European continent we'd probably have lost to Hitler as well.

    But we weren't. And, to make it worse for the French, our defense - the Battle of Britain - was peculiarly and captivatingly heroic. An incredibly story. Whereas their collapse was wrenchingly quick and effete.

    It is bizarre that winners v losers in WW2 still divides Europe psychologically - but it does. At a rough guess, all the eurozone members were either conquered by the Fascists, (France etc) or were actively Fascist by themselves (Spain etc), or were sympathetic to Fascism (Ireland etc).
    Evening Sean. Congratulations on the new romance.

    What I am wondering is whether she is a bonny north London leftie.
This discussion has been closed.

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