Punters remain confident that there will be a deal – politicalbetting.com
Punters remain confident that there will be a deal – politicalbetting.com
The trend on the Smarkets exchange is very clear – punters now rate it a 75% chance that there will be a deal by the end of the month and certainly the apparent concession by Boris appears to have gone down well in Brussels.
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Still think we're misunderestimating the chances of an accidental no deal.
The deal still needs to be ratified.
What does this mean??
I would be wary of betting due to technicalities like that. Looks like an argument in the making.
If there is a deal then no doubt the usual suspects will make silly noises. The only reasonable way I think to judge it is as follows: "If you had known this is the deal would you have voted to Leave on 23/6/16" - for May's deal my answer would have been no. I await seeing what Boris's deal will be.
“I also want to congratulate the vice president-elect, our colleague from California, Sen. Harris. Beyond our differences all Americans can take pride that our nation has a female vice president-elect for the very first time”
Or if you do go - at no point take your shoes off.....
The government have also said there will be no extension.
Having got as far as they have got, No Deal would represent a monumental fuck up, where the only winners would be Asia.
For example, see here and the various replies to this tweet and the quoted thread:
https://twitter.com/remkorteweg/status/1338890975889027075
The truth seems to be that no-one really knows. It might be possible to fudge something, but it's far from certain. There might have to be some chaotic interlude where no-one quite knows what the rules are, and tariffs might have to be collected and possibly reimbursed later. Whatever happens, it's a God-awful mess.
* I know, I know - but if you follow the right people, there's a a lot of good stuff there.
"Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed"
That's the Christmas present that they wanted! 🎅
My laptop doesn't log on properly.
Shit, actually that's Assassin's Creed.
But nothing has changed on the fundamentals. No Deal is not an option for us therefore a Deal is certain. The only suspense is the detail - and even there not much since we know the shape of it. Future divergence at the price of possible tariffs.
Been banging on, I know, so will not make this point again that a Deal is certain until Thursday morning at the earliest.
Public support for the Welsh Government handling of covid collapses
Problem with logistics, perhaps? Freezer broken down?
Good evening, everyone.
The other problems are political. The EP are already bitching about being sidelined, and they have a point. They don't want to be presented with a fait accompli. There's also a political/legal worry about whether this would fall foul of WTO rules. Of course, in practice that might not matter too much if no other countries object, which would probably be the case, but the EU doesn't want to be put in the position of breaking the rules.
There are various possible solutions, discussed in those tweets, but it's a pretty murky area. Basically we should never, ever have got to this insanely late stage.
God knows how businesses are supposed to plan. I expect that many will simply shut down all cross-channel shipments for a couple of months whilst they wait to find out what the hell is going on.
He waited until the EC met and voted for Biden before acknowledging Biden's victory so Trumpers could not accuse him of betraying the President.
However he has now decided he has to throw Trump under a bus to ensure the Georgia Senate elections are seen as the only chance to stop the Democrats gaining control of all 3 branches of the Federal Government by Republican voters rather than allowing Trump to set the narrative than he can still win and be the main roadblock to Democratic power.
Honestly! There is no extension until there is an extension. The government will not extend for more negotiation but will for ratification. That’s a political choice not a moral imperative
It’s obvious that people have lost love for Welsh Labour, but so far they haven’t quite worked out who to turn to instead.
I mean I'm sure it's not Brexit related.
It would also be completed stupid, it's something I could see Barnier pushing but Ursula seems to understand the importance of the situation and not unnecessarily pissing off the UK side.
I mean Max this govt was about to renege on the deal they signed moments ago.
So for that reason don't expect any tier relaxations tomorrow (the first formal review date) as the government will be aware that this is coming
Also makes it difficult re Christmas - if the Government scraps the relaxations then many will meet up anyway, but many others won't even if the relaxations remain.
You don't mess around once a deal is agreed.
We are beginning to reach the end of this hopefully. Let's not get crazy now.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1338910826418368514?s=20
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1338911046799650824?s=20
We're a member of the common transit convention now in our own right so lorries will only have to make customs declarations and pay import duties when they arrive at their final destination - and you can file some in advance and just have spot checks on top - which will reduce loads at ports.
From case data
From hospitalisation data