As the guy from RTE is saying, fish just comes down to numbers. The last I saw they wanted 80% of current for ten years, and we were offering something like 15% for three years. 50% for five years is an obvious potential settling point.
Then you're just left with what mechanism is used to ensure that if we try and undercut EU standards then our access to their markets is limited in some way. Given that the alternative is that our access is limited dramatically and immediately (and that at any stage in the future we could decide to move to the same arrangement) it is hard to see why this should be insoluable.
Just as a point, if Boris does achieve a good deal he will be in a very strong position politically
I agree, which is the reason I think he’d be very silly to derail the negotiations now. He’ll cop it from the ERG but fundamentally he has already spiked Farage’s guns and Labour will need to vote for a deal despite their divisions. There is almost no political upside to him in no deal.
It depends if the EU are reasonable or not.
A reasonable compromise would be good. Unreasonable terms would not.
I wonder if BJ’s subconscious is now in charge of the flabby, corpse-white Golem? In its determination to cosplay Churchill, it must know that short of bombing up a Lanc and pounding the crap out of Essen, no deal is the best way of indulging its ‘we stood alone’ fantasies.
The issue has moved on and we look to be standing on the verge of a deal
Everyone with any sense should welcome it and let us all move on
Sorry, in the last 24 hours various people have been wanking on about gun boats, clean Brexit, bringing it on and total war. Let’s move on from fluffy grandpa doesn’t really cut it.
Personally I'm quite content with how Brexit is going. The EU are being scelerotic and unreasonable, so we have two choices: to give in to them or walk away. If I got a vote I would say walk away. We have al A lot of people are hyperventilating about the impact of a clean Brexit but I think it will be ultimately much ado about nothing, albeit with some disruption. People living in Kent may notice it more but they also voted for it more.
And if there's some disruption I think people can live with that so long as they think it's all a part of a plan.
That is not entirely true, East Kent voted heavily Leave, West Kent voted Leave at about the English average, Tunbridge Wells voted Remain
Yes. But aren’t we now at war with East Kent? Haven’t you seen the Gun Boats in the Channel?
We have always been at war with East Kent.
Canterbury, the Parliamentary constituency as opposed to the local authority (which is essentially the constituency plus f***ing Herne Bay) voted Remain - thus Rosie Duffield from 2017. Herne Bay has a lot to answer for. Nuke it from space I say.
I have never gone that far
'Herne Bay has a lot to answer for. Nuke it from space I say.'
Only because Herne Bay is not in Spain (though you do seem to think that Spain is part of the UK, or at least Catalonia is). You were talking about nuking the Spanish were you not?
Personally I'm quite content with how Brexit is going. The EU are being scelerotic and unreasonable, so we have two choices: to give in to them or walk away. If I got a vote I would say walk away. We have al A lot of people are hyperventilating about the impact of a clean Brexit but I think it will be ultimately much ado about nothing, albeit with some disruption. People living in Kent may notice it more but they also voted for it more.
And if there's some disruption I think people can live with that so long as they think it's all a part of a plan.
That is not entirely true, East Kent voted heavily Leave, West Kent voted Leave at about the English average, Tunbridge Wells voted Remain
Yes. But aren’t we now at war with East Kent? Haven’t you seen the Gun Boats in the Channel?
We have always been at war with East Kent.
West Kent certainly has.
Kentish Man versus Man of Kent? And only the Medway between them.
One is London commuter belt, one traditional coastal and rural Kent with a fair number of ex East End and South Londoners in Dartford and the Medway towns, Sevenoaks and Tunbridge Wells are wealthy Home Counties commuter belt and closer culturally to Surrey than they are to Margate and Thanet
Sky saying the language has changed and joint statement is a good sign
It shows they think a deal is still possible, which is good.
The snag is, everyone has now bet the house on it (although arguably that was true three years ago). If a deal is not agreed, it will be complete chaos as there is no time to do anything to mitigate an abrupt change.
The 'avoid chaos' ship sailed some time ago if there is no deal. As Hennig said on BBC earlier, we are so far already into overtime that there is no time to do implementation and so continuing to talk makes no difference on that front. There wont be time to read the 1000 page document never mind implement it by January. A fudge on the cliff edge will be found if there is a Deal.
I think what would happen is the deal, should one be reached, would be brought in informally from the 1st as part of an amended transition. Then, it could be ratified later.
Knowing the EU, if it was not ratified that would also mean it could carry on indefinitely as a temporary arrangement under the WA.
Which in fact might suit us quite well, given it would mean we could leave at any time that suited us, and would almost certainly never choose to do so.
Like Sweden and the euro.
Exactly. Or the EU constitution.
Or the Canadian constitution -- which has never been signed by the dissenting province.
I suspect that you have found the way forward, YDoethur.
As the guy from RTE is saying, fish just comes down to numbers. The last I saw they wanted 80% of current for ten years, and we were offering something like 15% for three years. 50% for five years is an obvious potential settling point.
Then you're just left with what mechanism is used to ensure that if we try and undercut EU standards then our access to their markets is limited in some way. Given that the alternative is that our access is limited dramatically and immediately (and that at any stage in the future we could decide to move to the same arrangement) it is hard to see why this should be insoluable.
It's going to happen unless the ERG goes berserk.
He's got a majority of 80 which Theresa May never had. Ignore the stupid bastards.
I think it does show that Barnier looks to have been the roadblock to a deal. As soon as he's been sidelined the EU's negotiating stance has been much less confrontational and ready to compromise in areas they are being unreasonable. His poisoned debriefs to EU leaders were the issue IMO and he pushed his own agenda of no compromise too often because he really believes the remainer line about the EU having a 100/0 advantage.
Now with UVdL in charge and the wider political fear of no deal Britain completely undercutting the EU and the EU having literally no means to stop it has led to reasonable compromises that I'm sure Barnier would have tried to block or got the French to veto.
Personally I'm quite content with how Brexit is going. The EU are being scelerotic and unreasonable, so we have two choices: to give in to them or walk away. If I got a vote I would say walk away. We have al A lot of people are hyperventilating about the impact of a clean Brexit but I think it will be ultimately much ado about nothing, albeit with some disruption. People living in Kent may notice it more but they also voted for it more.
And if there's some disruption I think people can live with that so long as they think it's all a part of a plan.
That is not entirely true, East Kent voted heavily Leave, West Kent voted Leave at about the English average, Tunbridge Wells voted Remain
Yes. But aren’t we now at war with East Kent? Haven’t you seen the Gun Boats in the Channel?
We have always been at war with East Kent.
Canterbury, the Parliamentary constituency as opposed to the local authority (which is essentially the constituency plus f***ing Herne Bay) voted Remain - thus Rosie Duffield from 2017. Herne Bay has a lot to answer for. Nuke it from space I say.
I have never gone that far
'Herne Bay has a lot to answer for. Nuke it from space I say.'
Only because Herne Bay is not in Spain (though you do seem to think that Spain is part of the UK, or at least Catalonia is). You were talking about nuking the Spanish were you not?
I have never advocated nuking Spain either, that was LadyG, all I have advocated is using all necessary measures to defend Gibraltar if required
If the EU have blinked then hopefully a deal can be agreed. So long as both parties are reasonable a deal should be agreeable. Just need EU to agree to copy and paste the Canada agreement LPF.
Unlikely they'll be doing that. I expect something substantially along the lines of where we are. Future divergence possible at the price of market access.
It looks like the EU has abandoned a formal process for upgrading common standards in favour of the potential for clobbering the UK if it doesn't upgrade in concert*. Not sure that's an improvement from the UK's PoV, but if it gets the deal over the line, good.
Sky saying the language has changed and joint statement is a good sign
It shows they think a deal is still possible, which is good.
The snag is, everyone has now bet the house on it (although arguably that was true three years ago). If a deal is not agreed, it will be complete chaos as there is no time to do anything to mitigate an abrupt change.
The 'avoid chaos' ship sailed some time ago if there is no deal. As Hennig said on BBC earlier, we are so far already into overtime that there is no time to do implementation and so continuing to talk makes no difference on that front. There wont be time to read the 1000 page document never mind implement it by January. A fudge on the cliff edge will be found if there is a Deal.
I think what would happen is the deal, should one be reached, would be brought in informally from the 1st as part of an amended transition. Then, it could be ratified later.
Knowing the EU, if it was not ratified that would also mean it could carry on indefinitely as a temporary arrangement under the WA.
Which in fact might suit us quite well, given it would mean we could leave at any time that suited us, and would almost certainly never choose to do so.
Like Sweden and the euro.
Exactly. Or the EU constitution.
Or the Canadian constitution -- which has never been signed by the dissenting province.
I suspect that you have found the way forward, YDoethur.
The unratified deal will nicely complement our unwritten constitution.
Personally I'm quite content with how Brexit is going. The EU are being scelerotic and unreasonable, so we have two choices: to give in to them or walk away. If I got a vote I would say walk away. We have al A lot of people are hyperventilating about the impact of a clean Brexit but I think it will be ultimately much ado about nothing, albeit with some disruption. People living in Kent may notice it more but they also voted for it more.
And if there's some disruption I think people can live with that so long as they think it's all a part of a plan.
That is not entirely true, East Kent voted heavily Leave, West Kent voted Leave at about the English average, Tunbridge Wells voted Remain
Yes. But aren’t we now at war with East Kent? Haven’t you seen the Gun Boats in the Channel?
We have always been at war with East Kent.
Canterbury, the Parliamentary constituency as opposed to the local authority (which is essentially the constituency plus f***ing Herne Bay) voted Remain - thus Rosie Duffield from 2017. Herne Bay has a lot to answer for. Nuke it from space I say.
I have never gone that far
'Herne Bay has a lot to answer for. Nuke it from space I say.'
I've been to Herne Bay. I have worked in Herne Bay. I have seen things you people would not believe.
Good news if this is all legitimate. A deal feels much closer now than it did a few days ago.
Must be odds on from here. Joint statement, no talk of major disagreements, no deadlines. It's going to happen - unless the ERG kicks up one hell of a stink.
Hopefully, a decent deal (or at least, not totally useless deal) is agreed, the ERG go ape, Johnson passes it with Starmer and Blackford’s backing, and he is brutally defenestrated in the new year.
Win, win, win.
Apart from Graham Brady’s unfortunate postie, but with luck a lorry will be provided to avoid a hernia.
My guess is a minor backbench rebellion, but nothing terminal for Johnson at this stage. The interesting bit will be how much traction Farage's inevitable betrayal narrative now gets. If it moves 5% or so of current Brexit ultra support from the Tories in addition to the percentage that the BXP is now polling, then they will have a serious problem.
Personally I'm quite content with how Brexit is going. The EU are being scelerotic and unreasonable, so we have two choices: to give in to them or walk away. If I got a vote I would say walk away. We have al A lot of people are hyperventilating about the impact of a clean Brexit but I think it will be ultimately much ado about nothing, albeit with some disruption. People living in Kent may notice it more but they also voted for it more.
And if there's some disruption I think people can live with that so long as they think it's all a part of a plan.
That is not entirely true, East Kent voted heavily Leave, West Kent voted Leave at about the English average, Tunbridge Wells voted Remain
Yes. But aren’t we now at war with East Kent? Haven’t you seen the Gun Boats in the Channel?
We have always been at war with East Kent.
West Kent certainly has.
Kentish Man versus Man of Kent? And only the Medway between them.
Or Rainham Mark. Or the settlement areas of the Angles and Jutes. Who can say?
A Man of Kent once told me the hostilities could be put down to those who drank Fremlins and those who did not.
They are still going to be talking on the 31st Dec aren't they.
It reminds me of a big pay and conditions settlement I was negotiating for the company with the union, which ended up in talks on the day before Christmas Eve. In the hotel that morning we sat having breakfast watching two guys dressed as Santas fighting in the street. Then the hotel set fire to the kitchen and we had to evacuate for a while. Negotiations finally started and were still going on into that evening, by which time the hotel was hosting an Xmas party for some large company. In the lobby near the lifts there were two large sofas - on one sofa a young couple from the party were getting progressively more intimate; meanwhile on the other I was sitting with the union rep settling the level of an allowance, one of the remaining sticking points that cleared the way to the deal.
Prior to Christmas was often when deals were struck, as people's willingness to settle increased as the holiday drew closer.
And effectively it's much longer than that since a bet on it wins if a Deal is teed up but not signed off as at 1st Jan, or if an extension is agreed to keep talking on the final points.
Personally I'm quite content with how Brexit is going. The EU are being scelerotic and unreasonable, so we have two choices: to give in to them or walk away. If I got a vote I would say walk away. We have al A lot of people are hyperventilating about the impact of a clean Brexit but I think it will be ultimately much ado about nothing, albeit with some disruption. People living in Kent may notice it more but they also voted for it more.
And if there's some disruption I think people can live with that so long as they think it's all a part of a plan.
That is not entirely true, East Kent voted heavily Leave, West Kent voted Leave at about the English average, Tunbridge Wells voted Remain
Yes. But aren’t we now at war with East Kent? Haven’t you seen the Gun Boats in the Channel?
We have always been at war with East Kent.
West Kent certainly has.
Kentish Man versus Man of Kent? And only the Medway between them.
One is London commuter belt, one traditional coastal and rural Kent with a fair number of ex East End and South Londoners in Dartford and the Medway towns, Sevenoaks and Tunbridge Wells are wealthy Home Counties commuter belt and closer culturally to Surrey than they are to Margate and Thanet
Yes but if you dig into the historical origins of the distinction, it was the east that was seen as higher status and the west that was more common.
Good news if this is all legitimate. A deal feels much closer now than it did a few days ago.
Must be odds on from here. Joint statement, no talk of major disagreements, no deadlines. It's going to happen - unless the ERG kicks up one hell of a stink.
Hopefully, a decent deal (or at least, not totally useless deal) is agreed, the ERG go ape, Johnson passes it with Starmer and Blackford’s backing, and he is brutally defenestrated in the new year.
Win, win, win.
Apart from Graham Brady’s unfortunate postie, but with luck a lorry will be provided to avoid a hernia.
My guess is a minor backbench rebellion, but nothing terminal for Johnson at this stage. The interesting bit will be how much traction Farage's inevitable betrayal narrative now gets. If it moves 5% or so of current Brexit ultra support from the Tories in addition to the percentage that the BXP is now polling, then they will have a serious problem.
Maybe the people's boredom with Brexit, which helped Boris get an 80 seat majority, will now diminish support for Farage. We will have left with a deal, what more do you want?
Personally I'm quite content with how Brexit is going. The EU are being scelerotic and unreasonable, so we have two choices: to give in to them or walk away. If I got a vote I would say walk away. We have al A lot of people are hyperventilating about the impact of a clean Brexit but I think it will be ultimately much ado about nothing, albeit with some disruption. People living in Kent may notice it more but they also voted for it more.
And if there's some disruption I think people can live with that so long as they think it's all a part of a plan.
That is not entirely true, East Kent voted heavily Leave, West Kent voted Leave at about the English average, Tunbridge Wells voted Remain
Yes. But aren’t we now at war with East Kent? Haven’t you seen the Gun Boats in the Channel?
We have always been at war with East Kent.
West Kent certainly has.
Kentish Man versus Man of Kent? And only the Medway between them.
Or Rainham Mark. Or the settlement areas of the Angles and Jutes. Who can say?
A Man of Kent once told me the hostilities could be put down to those who drank Fremlins and those who did not.
I believe that Kent is the only old school English county to have two bishoprics - Canterbury and Rochester
If the EU have blinked then hopefully a deal can be agreed. So long as both parties are reasonable a deal should be agreeable. Just need EU to agree to copy and paste the Canada agreement LPF.
Unlikely they'll be doing that. I expect something substantially along the lines of where we are. Future divergence possible at the price of market access.
It looks like the EU has abandoned a formal process for upgrading common standards in favour of the potential for clobbering the UK if it doesn't upgrade in concert*. Not sure that's an improvement from the UK's PoV, but if it gets the deal over the line, good.
* Technically the UK can do the same in reverse.
If it's reciprocal then that is reasonable.
The proposal in the Times over the last weekend was that the last proposal was NOT reciprocal. That is a major distinction.
If the EU have blinked then hopefully a deal can be agreed. So long as both parties are reasonable a deal should be agreeable. Just need EU to agree to copy and paste the Canada agreement LPF.
Unlikely they'll be doing that. I expect something substantially along the lines of where we are. Future divergence possible at the price of market access.
Shh, let him think the EU have blinked.
- It will need to be spun that way. We must bite our tongues and take one for the team.
If the EU have blinked then hopefully a deal can be agreed. So long as both parties are reasonable a deal should be agreeable. Just need EU to agree to copy and paste the Canada agreement LPF.
Unlikely they'll be doing that. I expect something substantially along the lines of where we are. Future divergence possible at the price of market access.
It looks like the EU has abandoned a formal process for upgrading common standards in favour of the potential for clobbering the UK if it doesn't upgrade in concert*. Not sure that's an improvement from the UK's PoV, but if it gets the deal over the line, good.
* Technically the UK can do the same in reverse.
If it's reciprocal then that is reasonable.
The proposal in the Times over the last weekend was that the last proposal was NOT reciprocal. That is a major distinction.
On trade, fundamentally we are asking and they are giving. That's the very simple reality that many Brexiters have been trying to deny from the beginning.
If the EU have blinked then hopefully a deal can be agreed. So long as both parties are reasonable a deal should be agreeable. Just need EU to agree to copy and paste the Canada agreement LPF.
Unlikely they'll be doing that. I expect something substantially along the lines of where we are. Future divergence possible at the price of market access.
It looks like the EU has abandoned a formal process for upgrading common standards in favour of the potential for clobbering the UK if it doesn't upgrade in concert*. Not sure that's an improvement from the UK's PoV, but if it gets the deal over the line, good.
* Technically the UK can do the same in reverse.
If it's reciprocal then that is reasonable.
The proposal in the Times over the last weekend was that the last proposal was NOT reciprocal. That is a major distinction.
On trade, fundamentally we are asking and they are giving. That's the very simple reality that many Brexiters have been trying to deny from the beginning.
I've no qualms with the notion of them giving.
Remainers have been adamant they would be taking not giving.
Personally I'm quite content with how Brexit is going. The EU are being scelerotic and unreasonable, so we have two choices: to give in to them or walk away. If I got a vote I would say walk away. We have al A lot of people are hyperventilating about the impact of a clean Brexit but I think it will be ultimately much ado about nothing, albeit with some disruption. People living in Kent may notice it more but they also voted for it more.
And if there's some disruption I think people can live with that so long as they think it's all a part of a plan.
That is not entirely true, East Kent voted heavily Leave, West Kent voted Leave at about the English average, Tunbridge Wells voted Remain
Yes. But aren’t we now at war with East Kent? Haven’t you seen the Gun Boats in the Channel?
We have always been at war with East Kent.
West Kent certainly has.
Kentish Man versus Man of Kent? And only the Medway between them.
One is London commuter belt, one traditional coastal and rural Kent with a fair number of ex East End and South Londoners in Dartford and the Medway towns, Sevenoaks and Tunbridge Wells are wealthy Home Counties commuter belt and closer culturally to Surrey than they are to Margate and Thanet
Yes but if you dig into the historical origins of the distinction, it was the east that was seen as higher status and the west that was more common.
Living here it has always amazed me that Kent was not partitioned East/West a la Sussex in the 1974 reforms. When my family came to Canterbury it was the middle of the Miners' Strike and my Dad (who's from York with an accent to boot) was questioned at a roadblock about whether he was a flying picket on his way to Snowdown or Bettshanger Collieries. He's an accountant.
Good news if this is all legitimate. A deal feels much closer now than it did a few days ago.
Must be odds on from here. Joint statement, no talk of major disagreements, no deadlines. It's going to happen - unless the ERG kicks up one hell of a stink.
Hopefully, a decent deal (or at least, not totally useless deal) is agreed, the ERG go ape, Johnson passes it with Starmer and Blackford’s backing, and he is brutally defenestrated in the new year.
Win, win, win.
Apart from Graham Brady’s unfortunate postie, but with luck a lorry will be provided to avoid a hernia.
My guess is a minor backbench rebellion, but nothing terminal for Johnson at this stage. The interesting bit will be how much traction Farage's inevitable betrayal narrative now gets. If it moves 5% or so of current Brexit ultra support from the Tories in addition to the percentage that the BXP is now polling, then they will have a serious problem.
Not if they win back a few anti No Dealers from Labour and the LDs at the same time and Cameron won a majority in 2015 despite 12% voting UKIP.
Provided Boris does not compromise on fishing he can afford to compromise with the EU on LPF if they have indeed removed the ratchet without much leakage to Farage
Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, has said the European Union would not lose its cool as make-or-break talks with Britain over a post-Brexit trade deal approach their climax.
Michel, who chairs EU summits, told France Inter Radio that the EU wanted a good deal that respected the integrity of its single market, the Reuters news agency reports.
Of course their views don't really matter, this is what they signed up for.
The same Spanish Foreign Minister says something more interesting than that in the interview. The purpose of trade agreements is to manage interdependence, not to assert independence. What she doesn't say in this clip is that the European Union as the consortium owning the trade system will set the rules. The central contradiction of Brexit is that people voted Leave to take control, yet the only acceptable outcome is a close relationship with our peers in Europe, which will be on EU terms.
I don't disagree with what she says but I do think that she is missing the point. The negotiations have got bogged down because the EU has not been treating the UK like a sovereign partner with whom it is interdependent. They have been treating the UK like a supplicant greatly over valuing what they have to offer. If the negotiations had taken place in an atmosphere of mutual respect working on facilitating that interdependence that she is referring to there would have been a deal months ago.
But that is (my) point. The UK isn't a sovereign partner of the EU, because the EU isn't a sovereign state. It is a consortium of countries that runs a rules-based system. The question is on what terms does a third country get access to this system, which necessarily will be the consortium's terms. It won't change the rules for a third country. A membership organisation needs to maximise the value of membership, which means the EU will offer third countries much worse terms than members, albeit those terms need to offer some value to third countries.
The UK can decide its notions of sovereignty preclude it from any deal with the EU on its terms. In that case it cuts itself off from most of its peers and the relationship that offers most value. I don't think that is a sustainable position and that the UK will be forced into a relationship with the EU on its terms, which gives it less than before and which the UK no longer has much influence over. That's the central contradiction of Brexit.
That's struck me too. The UK and EU as "sovereign equals"? No. The UK is a sovereign nation. The EU is a union of 27 sovereign nations. It's a tell, I think. Either of thinking of the EU as a USE, or thinking of the UK as a superpower, or both. Not surprising, I guess, since this way of viewing things is in the Leaver psyche.
The EU has given itself sovereignty, not least in the Lisbon treaty. This is why they are entitled to insist upon Boris speaking to the leaders of that organisation rather than the individual countries. It is also clearly the direction of travel going forwards, especially for the EZ. So the EU is both a combination of sovereign countries (subject to the extent that they have agreed to pool their sovereignty by the treaties) and sovereign in its own right as a result of that pooling.
It's the phrase "negotiating as sovereign equals" that doesn't work for me. It's not quite the situation. However if I hear someone say the EU must "respect our sovereignty in the negotiations", that does sound right.
The EU Commission has little autonomy when it comes to agreeing treaties. Member states set the negotiating lines under the European Council and sign off the actual treaties. So called mixed, more complex treaties, need to be ratified by all member state parliaments. The European Parliament has a referral role; it can reject treaties but doesn't generally make decisions.
I would generally agree with that.
However taking a position of "we're going to make it really really really really difficult for us to negotiate" is crass and a weakness, not a strength. Perhaps it will be a perspective the EU will grow out of.
If the EU have blinked then hopefully a deal can be agreed. So long as both parties are reasonable a deal should be agreeable. Just need EU to agree to copy and paste the Canada agreement LPF.
Unlikely they'll be doing that. I expect something substantially along the lines of where we are. Future divergence possible at the price of market access.
It looks like the EU has abandoned a formal process for upgrading common standards in favour of the potential for clobbering the UK if it doesn't upgrade in concert*. Not sure that's an improvement from the UK's PoV, but if it gets the deal over the line, good.
* Technically the UK can do the same in reverse.
If it's reciprocal then that is reasonable.
The proposal in the Times over the last weekend was that the last proposal was NOT reciprocal. That is a major distinction.
Good point. I wonder just how reciprocal this new condition will be. Suppose the UK improves its standards and the EU doesn't. Will the EU really change its rules for 27 countries to keep them aligned to one non-member country?
Personally I'm quite content with how Brexit is going. The EU are being scelerotic and unreasonable, so we have two choices: to give in to them or walk away. If I got a vote I would say walk away. We have al A lot of people are hyperventilating about the impact of a clean Brexit but I think it will be ultimately much ado about nothing, albeit with some disruption. People living in Kent may notice it more but they also voted for it more.
And if there's some disruption I think people can live with that so long as they think it's all a part of a plan.
That is not entirely true, East Kent voted heavily Leave, West Kent voted Leave at about the English average, Tunbridge Wells voted Remain
Yes. But aren’t we now at war with East Kent? Haven’t you seen the Gun Boats in the Channel?
We have always been at war with East Kent.
West Kent certainly has.
Kentish Man versus Man of Kent? And only the Medway between them.
Or Rainham Mark. Or the settlement areas of the Angles and Jutes. Who can say?
A Man of Kent once told me the hostilities could be put down to those who drank Fremlins and those who did not.
I believe that Kent is the only old school English county to have two bishoprics - Canterbury and Rochester
That's right. When Pope Gregory sent St Augustine here, Canterbury was supposed to be a mere stopover before he established his Archbishopric in London. However London was part of the Kingdom of Essex at the time and the pagan King of Essex wouldn't give him the time of day. So Augustine stayed in Canterbury and started from here - establishing Rochester as the first Bishopric in the Archdiocese/Province of Canterbury. Eventually the Archbish moved to Lambeth Palace but London (ecclisiatically anyway) never recovered from the snub.
So that's what 'easiest possible' and 'oven ready' mean. Makes me concerned about our Christmas meal.
lol - it'll be served in the summer with the turkey burnt to a crisp and no parsnips.
But, you know, I did try my level best over a long period to stop people speculating that No Deal might be coming when it was never a realistic prospect.
I failed abjectly, of course, as I do in most things, and now Johnson gets what he wanted - he benefits from the manufactured Big Relief factor and gets the equally manufactured optics of "Boris battling to the wire and beyond for Britain."
Good news if this is all legitimate. A deal feels much closer now than it did a few days ago.
Must be odds on from here. Joint statement, no talk of major disagreements, no deadlines. It's going to happen - unless the ERG kicks up one hell of a stink.
Hopefully, a decent deal (or at least, not totally useless deal) is agreed, the ERG go ape, Johnson passes it with Starmer and Blackford’s backing, and he is brutally defenestrated in the new year.
Win, win, win.
Apart from Graham Brady’s unfortunate postie, but with luck a lorry will be provided to avoid a hernia.
My guess is a minor backbench rebellion, but nothing terminal for Johnson at this stage. The interesting bit will be how much traction Farage's inevitable betrayal narrative now gets. If it moves 5% or so of current Brexit ultra support from the Tories in addition to the percentage that the BXP is now polling, then they will have a serious problem.
Not if they win back a few anti No Dealers from Labour and the LDs at the same time and Cameron won a majority in 2015 despite 12% voting UKIP.
Provided Boris does not compromise on fishing he can afford to compromise with the EU on LPF if they have indeed removed the ratchet without much leakage to Farage
It'll have to be Labour that the Tories win anti No Dealers from. The LDs are not going to leak much more support. But I would not underestimate the appeal of betrayal to a segment of the electorate. We shall see.
And effectively it's much longer than that since a bet on it wins if a Deal is teed up but not signed off as at 1st Jan, or if an extension is agreed to keep talking on the final points.
Betfair will find a reason to keep it open for 99 years though
Good news if this is all legitimate. A deal feels much closer now than it did a few days ago.
Must be odds on from here. Joint statement, no talk of major disagreements, no deadlines. It's going to happen - unless the ERG kicks up one hell of a stink.
Hopefully, a decent deal (or at least, not totally useless deal) is agreed, the ERG go ape, Johnson passes it with Starmer and Blackford’s backing, and he is brutally defenestrated in the new year.
Win, win, win.
Apart from Graham Brady’s unfortunate postie, but with luck a lorry will be provided to avoid a hernia.
My guess is a minor backbench rebellion, but nothing terminal for Johnson at this stage. The interesting bit will be how much traction Farage's inevitable betrayal narrative now gets. If it moves 5% or so of current Brexit ultra support from the Tories in addition to the percentage that the BXP is now polling, then they will have a serious problem.
Maybe the people's boredom with Brexit, which helped Boris get an 80 seat majority, will now diminish support for Farage. We will have left with a deal, what more do you want?
Yes, many Remainers went for Get Brexit Done on Dec 12th - where "done" meant down the agenda and out of the news.
Good news if this is all legitimate. A deal feels much closer now than it did a few days ago.
Must be odds on from here. Joint statement, no talk of major disagreements, no deadlines. It's going to happen - unless the ERG kicks up one hell of a stink.
Hopefully, a decent deal (or at least, not totally useless deal) is agreed, the ERG go ape, Johnson passes it with Starmer and Blackford’s backing, and he is brutally defenestrated in the new year.
Win, win, win.
Apart from Graham Brady’s unfortunate postie, but with luck a lorry will be provided to avoid a hernia.
My guess is a minor backbench rebellion, but nothing terminal for Johnson at this stage. The interesting bit will be how much traction Farage's inevitable betrayal narrative now gets. If it moves 5% or so of current Brexit ultra support from the Tories in addition to the percentage that the BXP is now polling, then they will have a serious problem.
We could get best of both worlds. Johnson gets the Deal through Ok, which is good for the country, but the Cons lose votes to their right Farage flank, thus opening the door to a Labour win at the next election, which is even better for the country.
They are still going to be talking on the 31st Dec aren't they.
It reminds me of a big pay and conditions settlement I was negotiating for the company with the union, which ended up in talks on the day before Christmas Eve. In the hotel that morning we sat having breakfast watching two guys dressed as Santas fighting in the street. Then the hotel set fire to the kitchen and we had to evacuate for a while. Negotiations finally started and were still going on into that evening, by which time the hotel was hosting an Xmas party for some large company. In the lobby near the lifts there were two large sofas - on one sofa a young couple from the party were getting progressively more intimate; meanwhile on the other I was sitting with the union rep settling the level of an allowance, one of the remaining sticking points that cleared the way to the deal.
Prior to Christmas was often when deals were struck, as people's willingness to settle increased as the holiday drew closer.
Reminds me of the story Jack Mundey used to tell about Australian dockers demanding (and getting) "embarrassment money" for handling a consignment of toilet bowls.
Good news if this is all legitimate. A deal feels much closer now than it did a few days ago.
Must be odds on from here. Joint statement, no talk of major disagreements, no deadlines. It's going to happen - unless the ERG kicks up one hell of a stink.
Hopefully, a decent deal (or at least, not totally useless deal) is agreed, the ERG go ape, Johnson passes it with Starmer and Blackford’s backing, and he is brutally defenestrated in the new year.
Win, win, win.
Apart from Graham Brady’s unfortunate postie, but with luck a lorry will be provided to avoid a hernia.
My guess is a minor backbench rebellion, but nothing terminal for Johnson at this stage. The interesting bit will be how much traction Farage's inevitable betrayal narrative now gets. If it moves 5% or so of current Brexit ultra support from the Tories in addition to the percentage that the BXP is now polling, then they will have a serious problem.
Not if they win back a few anti No Dealers from Labour and the LDs at the same time and Cameron won a majority in 2015 despite 12% voting UKIP.
Provided Boris does not compromise on fishing he can afford to compromise with the EU on LPF if they have indeed removed the ratchet without much leakage to Farage
It'll have to be Labour that the Tories win anti No Dealers from. The LDs are not going to leak much more support. But I would not underestimate the appeal of betrayal to a segment of the electorate. We shall see.
I think if Boris can point to the French being angry at any deal the UK gets that will make it easier to sell as a good outcome, however much the ERG might rant about it.
Personally I'm quite content with how Brexit is going. The EU are being scelerotic and unreasonable, so we have two choices: to give in to them or walk away. If I got a vote I would say walk away. We have al A lot of people are hyperventilating about the impact of a clean Brexit but I think it will be ultimately much ado about nothing, albeit with some disruption. People living in Kent may notice it more but they also voted for it more.
And if there's some disruption I think people can live with that so long as they think it's all a part of a plan.
That is not entirely true, East Kent voted heavily Leave, West Kent voted Leave at about the English average, Tunbridge Wells voted Remain
Yes. But aren’t we now at war with East Kent? Haven’t you seen the Gun Boats in the Channel?
We have always been at war with East Kent.
West Kent certainly has.
Kentish Man versus Man of Kent? And only the Medway between them.
Or Rainham Mark. Or the settlement areas of the Angles and Jutes. Who can say?
A Man of Kent once told me the hostilities could be put down to those who drank Fremlins and those who did not.
Takes me back. When I becan my furtive underage trips to the Two Sawyers and the City Arms in Canterbury in 1990/91 Fremlins was just about hanging on I think. Now we only have Shepherd Neame, which is fine, but to have local variety was nice. Nostalgia isn't what it was.
And effectively it's much longer than that since a bet on it wins if a Deal is teed up but not signed off as at 1st Jan, or if an extension is agreed to keep talking on the final points.
Betfair will find a reason to keep it open for 99 years though
Good news if this is all legitimate. A deal feels much closer now than it did a few days ago.
Must be odds on from here. Joint statement, no talk of major disagreements, no deadlines. It's going to happen - unless the ERG kicks up one hell of a stink.
Hopefully, a decent deal (or at least, not totally useless deal) is agreed, the ERG go ape, Johnson passes it with Starmer and Blackford’s backing, and he is brutally defenestrated in the new year.
Win, win, win.
Apart from Graham Brady’s unfortunate postie, but with luck a lorry will be provided to avoid a hernia.
My guess is a minor backbench rebellion, but nothing terminal for Johnson at this stage. The interesting bit will be how much traction Farage's inevitable betrayal narrative now gets. If it moves 5% or so of current Brexit ultra support from the Tories in addition to the percentage that the BXP is now polling, then they will have a serious problem.
Not if they win back a few anti No Dealers from Labour and the LDs at the same time and Cameron won a majority in 2015 despite 12% voting UKIP.
Provided Boris does not compromise on fishing he can afford to compromise with the EU on LPF if they have indeed removed the ratchet without much leakage to Farage
Do you agree the Deal is very strong favourite now?
Good news if this is all legitimate. A deal feels much closer now than it did a few days ago.
Must be odds on from here. Joint statement, no talk of major disagreements, no deadlines. It's going to happen - unless the ERG kicks up one hell of a stink.
Hopefully, a decent deal (or at least, not totally useless deal) is agreed, the ERG go ape, Johnson passes it with Starmer and Blackford’s backing, and he is brutally defenestrated in the new year.
Win, win, win.
Apart from Graham Brady’s unfortunate postie, but with luck a lorry will be provided to avoid a hernia.
My guess is a minor backbench rebellion, but nothing terminal for Johnson at this stage. The interesting bit will be how much traction Farage's inevitable betrayal narrative now gets. If it moves 5% or so of current Brexit ultra support from the Tories in addition to the percentage that the BXP is now polling, then they will have a serious problem.
Not if they win back a few anti No Dealers from Labour and the LDs at the same time and Cameron won a majority in 2015 despite 12% voting UKIP.
Provided Boris does not compromise on fishing he can afford to compromise with the EU on LPF if they have indeed removed the ratchet without much leakage to Farage
Do you agree the Deal is very strong favourite now?
After the EU removed the ratchet I think a Deal is now favourite again, after No Deal was favourite yesterday.
The prospect of French fishermen being banned from UK waters if No Deal has also I expect concentrated Macron's mind
And effectively it's much longer than that since a bet on it wins if a Deal is teed up but not signed off as at 1st Jan, or if an extension is agreed to keep talking on the final points.
Betfair will find a reason to keep it open for 99 years though
And effectively it's much longer than that since a bet on it wins if a Deal is teed up but not signed off as at 1st Jan, or if an extension is agreed to keep talking on the final points.
Betfair will find a reason to keep it open for 99 years though
Have they paid out yet on the 1707 Act of Union?
Still waiting to see how that one pans out..
Just as well the English one was in 1706, or they'd argue about which one you meant in the first place.
Personally I'm quite content with how Brexit is going. The EU are being scelerotic and unreasonable, so we have two choices: to give in to them or walk away. If I got a vote I would say walk away. We have al A lot of people are hyperventilating about the impact of a clean Brexit but I think it will be ultimately much ado about nothing, albeit with some disruption. People living in Kent may notice it more but they also voted for it more.
And if there's some disruption I think people can live with that so long as they think it's all a part of a plan.
That is not entirely true, East Kent voted heavily Leave, West Kent voted Leave at about the English average, Tunbridge Wells voted Remain
Yes. But aren’t we now at war with East Kent? Haven’t you seen the Gun Boats in the Channel?
We have always been at war with East Kent.
West Kent certainly has.
Kentish Man versus Man of Kent? And only the Medway between them.
Or Rainham Mark. Or the settlement areas of the Angles and Jutes. Who can say?
A Man of Kent once told me the hostilities could be put down to those who drank Fremlins and those who did not.
I believe that Kent is the only old school English county to have two bishoprics - Canterbury and Rochester
Well, that was a busy morning! Had me jab... //twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1338099414901067777?s=09
Did they say anything about the 2nd one?
They will text me a time and date apparently.
I got a text at 10AM to come in for it. Bit of a Q, mostly hospital staff. All very efficient and well organised. About 200 so far today.
how much flexibility is there on the gap between the two jabs? is a couple of days either side fine? would certainly ease the logistics if it's not too strict.
Good news if this is all legitimate. A deal feels much closer now than it did a few days ago.
Must be odds on from here. Joint statement, no talk of major disagreements, no deadlines. It's going to happen - unless the ERG kicks up one hell of a stink.
Hopefully, a decent deal (or at least, not totally useless deal) is agreed, the ERG go ape, Johnson passes it with Starmer and Blackford’s backing, and he is brutally defenestrated in the new year.
Win, win, win.
Apart from Graham Brady’s unfortunate postie, but with luck a lorry will be provided to avoid a hernia.
My guess is a minor backbench rebellion, but nothing terminal for Johnson at this stage. The interesting bit will be how much traction Farage's inevitable betrayal narrative now gets. If it moves 5% or so of current Brexit ultra support from the Tories in addition to the percentage that the BXP is now polling, then they will have a serious problem.
Not if they win back a few anti No Dealers from Labour and the LDs at the same time and Cameron won a majority in 2015 despite 12% voting UKIP.
Provided Boris does not compromise on fishing he can afford to compromise with the EU on LPF if they have indeed removed the ratchet without much leakage to Farage
Do you agree the Deal is very strong favourite now?
After the EU removed the ratchet I think a Deal is now favourite again, after No Deal was favourite yesterday.
The prospect of French fishermen being banned from UK waters if No Deal has also I expect concentrated Macron's mind
Thanks. After the teeniest of wobbles yesterday I'm back to base camp - No Deal not a real world option and therefore Deal a certainty. Open questions, the detail and the final spin.
Personally I'm quite content with how Brexit is going. The EU are being scelerotic and unreasonable, so we have two choices: to give in to them or walk away. If I got a vote I would say walk away. We have al A lot of people are hyperventilating about the impact of a clean Brexit but I think it will be ultimately much ado about nothing, albeit with some disruption. People living in Kent may notice it more but they also voted for it more.
And if there's some disruption I think people can live with that so long as they think it's all a part of a plan.
That is not entirely true, East Kent voted heavily Leave, West Kent voted Leave at about the English average, Tunbridge Wells voted Remain
Yes. But aren’t we now at war with East Kent? Haven’t you seen the Gun Boats in the Channel?
We have always been at war with East Kent.
West Kent certainly has.
Kentish Man versus Man of Kent? And only the Medway between them.
Or Rainham Mark. Or the settlement areas of the Angles and Jutes. Who can say?
A Man of Kent once told me the hostilities could be put down to those who drank Fremlins and those who did not.
I believe that Kent is the only old school English county to have two bishoprics - Canterbury and Rochester
Hampshire? Winchester and Portsmouth?
You're quite right about that but if we're talking "old school" the Diocese of Portsmouth was created in 1927 from the Diocese of Winchester. Prior to the Industrial Revolution diocesan boundaries tended to run with county boundaries.
Personally I'm quite content with how Brexit is going. The EU are being scelerotic and unreasonable, so we have two choices: to give in to them or walk away. If I got a vote I would say walk away. We have al A lot of people are hyperventilating about the impact of a clean Brexit but I think it will be ultimately much ado about nothing, albeit with some disruption. People living in Kent may notice it more but they also voted for it more.
And if there's some disruption I think people can live with that so long as they think it's all a part of a plan.
That is not entirely true, East Kent voted heavily Leave, West Kent voted Leave at about the English average, Tunbridge Wells voted Remain
Yes. But aren’t we now at war with East Kent? Haven’t you seen the Gun Boats in the Channel?
We have always been at war with East Kent.
West Kent certainly has.
Kentish Man versus Man of Kent? And only the Medway between them.
Or Rainham Mark. Or the settlement areas of the Angles and Jutes. Who can say?
A Man of Kent once told me the hostilities could be put down to those who drank Fremlins and those who did not.
I believe that Kent is the only old school English county to have two bishoprics - Canterbury and Rochester
Hampshire? Winchester and Portsmouth?
Also perhaps Warwickshire - Coventry and Birmingham.
Good news if this is all legitimate. A deal feels much closer now than it did a few days ago.
Must be odds on from here. Joint statement, no talk of major disagreements, no deadlines. It's going to happen - unless the ERG kicks up one hell of a stink.
Hopefully, a decent deal (or at least, not totally useless deal) is agreed, the ERG go ape, Johnson passes it with Starmer and Blackford’s backing, and he is brutally defenestrated in the new year.
Win, win, win.
Apart from Graham Brady’s unfortunate postie, but with luck a lorry will be provided to avoid a hernia.
My guess is a minor backbench rebellion, but nothing terminal for Johnson at this stage. The interesting bit will be how much traction Farage's inevitable betrayal narrative now gets. If it moves 5% or so of current Brexit ultra support from the Tories in addition to the percentage that the BXP is now polling, then they will have a serious problem.
You're delusional if you think Farage is coming back as a post-Brexit political force under First Past the Post. That is absolutely a Not Happening event.
Well, that was a busy morning! Had me jab... //twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1338099414901067777?s=09
Did they say anything about the 2nd one?
They will text me a time and date apparently.
I got a text at 10AM to come in for it. Bit of a Q, mostly hospital staff. All very efficient and well organised. About 200 so far today.
how much flexibility is there on the gap between the two jabs? is a couple of days either side fine? would certainly ease the logistics if it's not too strict.
How could they possibly have done enough trialling to know, given the speed. My guess is that they’ll play it close simply because we have no idea.
Just read the thread. I really hope for a deal not least as I want to move a large chunk of £s to Spain for the new house I'm building - does anyone think they might take that into consideration
They are still going to be talking on the 31st Dec aren't they.
It reminds me of a big pay and conditions settlement I was negotiating for the company with the union, which ended up in talks on the day before Christmas Eve. In the hotel that morning we sat having breakfast watching two guys dressed as Santas fighting in the street. Then the hotel set fire to the kitchen and we had to evacuate for a while. Negotiations finally started and were still going on into that evening, by which time the hotel was hosting an Xmas party for some large company. In the lobby near the lifts there were two large sofas - on one sofa a young couple from the party were getting progressively more intimate; meanwhile on the other I was sitting with the union rep settling the level of an allowance, one of the remaining sticking points that cleared the way to the deal.
Prior to Christmas was often when deals were struck, as people's willingness to settle increased as the holiday drew closer.
Reminds me of the story Jack Mundey used to tell about Australian dockers demanding (and getting) "embarrassment money" for handling a consignment of toilet bowls.
The best bit was that, after settling the deal later that evening, the union Reps said they ought to look in on their own HQ staff’s Christmas do, which was taking place nearby, and invited us along. By the time we arrived the party was in full swing, and we only stayed long enough to say a few hellos and allow the negotiators to exhibit us as evidence of the sacrifice they’d made to secure the deal.
But long afterwards, whenever anyone from the union complained about the concessions they’d made, I was always able to remind them that there had been dancing on the tables at union HQ the night we landed that deal.
Just read the thread. I really hope for a deal not least as I want to move a large chunk of £s to Spain for the new house I'm building - does anyone think they might take that into consideration
Good news if this is all legitimate. A deal feels much closer now than it did a few days ago.
Must be odds on from here. Joint statement, no talk of major disagreements, no deadlines. It's going to happen - unless the ERG kicks up one hell of a stink.
Hopefully, a decent deal (or at least, not totally useless deal) is agreed, the ERG go ape, Johnson passes it with Starmer and Blackford’s backing, and he is brutally defenestrated in the new year.
Win, win, win.
Apart from Graham Brady’s unfortunate postie, but with luck a lorry will be provided to avoid a hernia.
My guess is a minor backbench rebellion, but nothing terminal for Johnson at this stage. The interesting bit will be how much traction Farage's inevitable betrayal narrative now gets. If it moves 5% or so of current Brexit ultra support from the Tories in addition to the percentage that the BXP is now polling, then they will have a serious problem.
You're delusional if you think Farage is coming back as a post-Brexit political force under First Past the Post. That is absolutely a Not Happening event.
Good news if this is all legitimate. A deal feels much closer now than it did a few days ago.
Must be odds on from here. Joint statement, no talk of major disagreements, no deadlines. It's going to happen - unless the ERG kicks up one hell of a stink.
Hopefully, a decent deal (or at least, not totally useless deal) is agreed, the ERG go ape, Johnson passes it with Starmer and Blackford’s backing, and he is brutally defenestrated in the new year.
Win, win, win.
Apart from Graham Brady’s unfortunate postie, but with luck a lorry will be provided to avoid a hernia.
My guess is a minor backbench rebellion, but nothing terminal for Johnson at this stage. The interesting bit will be how much traction Farage's inevitable betrayal narrative now gets. If it moves 5% or so of current Brexit ultra support from the Tories in addition to the percentage that the BXP is now polling, then they will have a serious problem.
You're delusional if you think Farage is coming back as a post-Brexit political force under First Past the Post. That is absolutely a Not Happening event.
We'll see.
I'm puzzled by PT's assertion given that Mr F and UKIP made almost all their impact by frightening the Tories into adopting their policies and stealing their voters. Ergo, zero MPs but you wouldn't think it from the Tory Party's policies.
Well, that was a busy morning! Had me jab... //twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1338099414901067777?s=09
Did they say anything about the 2nd one?
They will text me a time and date apparently.
I got a text at 10AM to come in for it. Bit of a Q, mostly hospital staff. All very efficient and well organised. About 200 so far today.
how much flexibility is there on the gap between the two jabs? is a couple of days either side fine? would certainly ease the logistics if it's not too strict.
No idea. I was a bit surprised by the text this morning from my Trust, if it was drier, I would have been walking the pup. I wasn't expecting it until after Christmas, but told I could get it if I was at the site by 1130. They only started yesterday in Leicester. Shot straight in and job done.
Just read the thread. I really hope for a deal not least as I want to move a large chunk of £s to Spain for the new house I'm building - does anyone think they might take that into consideration
That's what swung it is what I'm hearing.
Ahem! SSSShhhh! I need some kickback for all the PPE stuff I sent to the UK from the Mercachino superstore in my local town. NB - there really is such a place!
As the guy from RTE is saying, fish just comes down to numbers. The last I saw they wanted 80% of current for ten years, and we were offering something like 15% for three years. 50% for five years is an obvious potential settling point.
Then you're just left with what mechanism is used to ensure that if we try and undercut EU standards then our access to their markets is limited in some way. Given that the alternative is that our access is limited dramatically and immediately (and that at any stage in the future we could decide to move to the same arrangement) it is hard to see why this should be insoluable.
A phasing out of EU shares of fish to the eventual stable amounts would be best rather than a flat amount. Eg 80% for the EU next year, 60% year after, 40% then 20%
That way the French fishermen get most of what they want next year and can phase adjustment, the UK fishermen can spend time building up their capabilities and most of the transition would be completed before the next election.
That's the shape of deal I would have been, er, angling for.
Mr. Jonathan, May certainly struggled to get her own party on-side.
However, when you've got the 'pro'-EU side lining up alongside hardline Leavers that was undoubtedly an act that could be called bloody silly. Pro-EU MPs have been the best unwitting allies of sceptics for years, from the stupid reneging of the Lisbon vote through to compelling May to get Commons approval for her deal, to then refusing the deal on three occasions, and now complaining that, having successfully removed almost every alternative, we're set for a turbulent No Deal, in all probability.
*sighs*
There's such a thing as nuance. As a middle between extremes. One might forget that, given blind opposition to The Enemy seems to be a prevailing school of thought amongst many in politics.
Who was more constructive , Remainer Clarke or Leaver Boris?
Leaver Boris.
Citation needed!
Boris got Brexit done.
He's taking back control.
He's even ensuring Brexit means Brexit.
Besides platitudes what do you want a citation for?
Because your assertion is factually incorrect, unless by "constructive" you mean he has built more lorry parks around the M2 and M20 and constructed a raft of new customs paperwork and an unnecessary hostility to our nearest neighbours.
The man is an embarrassment to our country. Turning up to Brussels looking like Benny Hill's Fred Scuttle, with his unkempt hair and ill fitting suit, His Environment speech yesterday was remarkable, particularly it's conclusion, which was utterly humiliating. And that is just first impressions, what goes beyond is an incompetence based on the inability to make a decision that he fears might annoy his base.
Whenever I go off on one about my utter contempt for Johnson, I find myself with a handful of extra "off-topics". "Off-topic" away, although I believe my post does relate to Alastair's excellent thread header and Johnson's shambolic handling of Brexit.
I don't off topic anyone. It is cowardly, anonymous and rude. Plus it spams OGH.
If I disagree with you then I'll say so to your face.
I disagree with you. Boris is shaping up to be potentially the second best postwar PM and third most consequential.
I wasn't suggesting you would "off-topic".
We will have to agree to disagree about Johnson's legacy. I didn't like Mrs Thatcher, but I can understand why people did rate her so highly. As for Johnson, I cannot see past the Fred Scuttle, half-wittery.
Johnson's legacy it is too early to say but I think he has the potential to be up there with Attlee and Thatcher as one of the three most consequential PMs post war.
Blair had the potential too but threw it away.
Johnson's legacy will be the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland ceasing to exist.
It won't, the government has made clear 2014 was a once in a generation vote and it will refuse to allow indyref2 even if Sturgeon gets a Holyrood majority next year and Northern Ireland has been given special arrangements to protect the GFA and minimise checks on goods going to and from GB
Yawn, keep repeating your lies
They are not lies Malc but also they are not real politics
The time will come for indy 2 to be addressed, probably realistically in 2022 or 2023 and I have no issue with that
There will never be indyref2 allowed while we have a Tory majority government, it is not happening
Here we go again... Look Pal, this is the exact right way to ensure the end of the United Kingdom, even David Cameron understood that.
If you think that bleating that "its not fair", that "we are the government and we forbid this" will cut any ice at all then you do not understand either human nature or history,
So if you actually want to save the UK you profess to love I would button it and let the grown ups sort it out.
Good news if this is all legitimate. A deal feels much closer now than it did a few days ago.
Must be odds on from here. Joint statement, no talk of major disagreements, no deadlines. It's going to happen - unless the ERG kicks up one hell of a stink.
Hopefully, a decent deal (or at least, not totally useless deal) is agreed, the ERG go ape, Johnson passes it with Starmer and Blackford’s backing, and he is brutally defenestrated in the new year.
Win, win, win.
Apart from Graham Brady’s unfortunate postie, but with luck a lorry will be provided to avoid a hernia.
My guess is a minor backbench rebellion, but nothing terminal for Johnson at this stage. The interesting bit will be how much traction Farage's inevitable betrayal narrative now gets. If it moves 5% or so of current Brexit ultra support from the Tories in addition to the percentage that the BXP is now polling, then they will have a serious problem.
You're delusional if you think Farage is coming back as a post-Brexit political force under First Past the Post. That is absolutely a Not Happening event.
We'll see.
I'm puzzled by PT's assertion given that Mr F and UKIP made almost all their impact by frightening the Tories into adopting their policies and stealing their voters. Ergo, zero MPs but you wouldn't think it from the Tory Party's policies.
Not zero MPs.
Close to a hundred Tory MPs voted for a Brexit referendum before UKIP surged in the polls.
The Tories have had a number of Eurosceptic MPs since before Maastricht and before anyone has heard of Farage.
Well, that was a busy morning! Had me jab... //twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1338099414901067777?s=09
Did they say anything about the 2nd one?
They will text me a time and date apparently.
I got a text at 10AM to come in for it. Bit of a Q, mostly hospital staff. All very efficient and well organised. About 200 so far today.
how much flexibility is there on the gap between the two jabs? is a couple of days either side fine? would certainly ease the logistics if it's not too strict.
No idea. I was a bit surprised by the text this morning from my Trust, if it was drier, I would have been walking the pup. I wasn't expecting it until after Christmas, but told I could get it if I was at the site by 1130. They only started yesterday in Leicester. Shot straight in and job done.
Any early side effects? Apart from the allergic thing the other day I've seen no reports on other effects?
Comments
A reasonable compromise would be good. Unreasonable terms would not.
I suspect that you have found the way forward, YDoethur.
Now with UVdL in charge and the wider political fear of no deal Britain completely undercutting the EU and the EU having literally no means to stop it has led to reasonable compromises that I'm sure Barnier would have tried to block or got the French to veto.
* Technically the UK can do the same in reverse.
Prior to Christmas was often when deals were struck, as people's willingness to settle increased as the holiday drew closer.
And effectively it's much longer than that since a bet on it wins if a Deal is teed up but not signed off as at 1st Jan, or if an extension is agreed to keep talking on the final points.
We will have left with a deal, what more do you want?
The proposal in the Times over the last weekend was that the last proposal was NOT reciprocal. That is a major distinction.
Makes me concerned about our Christmas meal.
A 6 month implementation period would be perfect
Remainers have been adamant they would be taking not giving.
Provided Boris does not compromise on fishing he can afford to compromise with the EU on LPF if they have indeed removed the ratchet without much leakage to Farage
Michel, who chairs EU summits, told France Inter Radio that the EU wanted a good deal that respected the integrity of its single market, the Reuters news agency reports.
🤣
However taking a position of "we're going to make it really really really really difficult for us to negotiate" is crass and a weakness, not a strength. Perhaps it will be a perspective the EU will grow out of.
But, you know, I did try my level best over a long period to stop people speculating that No Deal might be coming when it was never a realistic prospect.
I failed abjectly, of course, as I do in most things, and now Johnson gets what he wanted - he benefits from the manufactured Big Relief factor and gets the equally manufactured optics of "Boris battling to the wire and beyond for Britain."
Grrr.
If i had to vote for BJ or AA as PM
I would either vote Tory or write neither of these w****rs on my ballot
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1338099414901067777?s=09
Unless @Charles invites me over for a peacock.
I got a text at 10AM to come in for it. Bit of a Q, mostly hospital staff. All very efficient and well organised. About 200 so far today.
The prospect of French fishermen being banned from UK waters if No Deal has also I expect concentrated Macron's mind
BBC News - Covid: NHS 'risks becoming national coronavirus service'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55288347
But I think it is a trick question.
The MoS has lost it.
" “We decide the election,” he said, greeted by cheers. “We’re waging a battle across America.”"
NY Times
But long afterwards, whenever anyone from the union complained about the concessions they’d made, I was always able to remind them that there had been dancing on the tables at union HQ the night we landed that deal.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
You can monkey about with it to get what you want. But there is a health warning (so to speak) - the four nations' data are not strictky comparable.
Close to a hundred Tory MPs voted for a Brexit referendum before UKIP surged in the polls.
The Tories have had a number of Eurosceptic MPs since before Maastricht and before anyone has heard of Farage.
You can't divorce Brexit from the Tory Party.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/12/13/merkel-johnson-politics-brexit-triumph-economics/