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The Martingale system – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    felix said:

    Has Jeremy announced his new project yet?

    i believe 2:30 was mentioned. i can barely contain my anticipation...
  • Options
    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    IanB2 said:

    As the guy from RTE is saying, fish just comes down to numbers. The last I saw they wanted 80% of current for ten years, and we were offering something like 15% for three years. 50% for five years is an obvious potential settling point.

    Then you're just left with what mechanism is used to ensure that if we try and undercut EU standards then our access to their markets is limited in some way. Given that the alternative is that our access is limited dramatically and immediately (and that at any stage in the future we could decide to move to the same arrangement) it is hard to see why this should be insoluable.

    A phasing out of EU shares of fish to the eventual stable amounts would be best rather than a flat amount. Eg 80% for the EU next year, 60% year after, 40% then 20%

    That way the French fishermen get most of what they want next year and can phase adjustment, the UK fishermen can spend time building up their capabilities and most of the transition would be completed before the next election.
    That's the shape of deal I would have been, er, angling for.
    yes seems very seine to me.

    and a more gradual taper would be ok imo if that was needed to get everything signed off.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,503
    edited December 2020
    What this does really show is the power of spin and theatrics and shady briefings. The dark arts. Johnson & Co have had most of the media and the commentariat, tabloid and broadsheet, eating up this idea that he is prepared to No Deal with the EU and move to WTO terms. Even Robert Peston was fooled.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,231
    MaxPB said:

    I think it does show that Barnier looks to have been the roadblock to a deal. As soon as he's been sidelined the EU's negotiating stance has been much less confrontational and ready to compromise in areas they are being unreasonable. His poisoned debriefs to EU leaders were the issue IMO and he pushed his own agenda of no compromise too often because he really believes the remainer line about the EU having a 100/0 advantage.

    Now with UVdL in charge and the wider political fear of no deal Britain completely undercutting the EU and the EU having literally no means to stop it has led to reasonable compromises that I'm sure Barnier would have tried to block or got the French to veto.

    Max that is pure unalloyed jingoistic bollox of the highest order
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,563
    Foxy said:

    Well, that was a busy morning! Had me jab...
    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1338099414901067777?s=09

    It must have hurt if you bit through your lolly stick like that?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    MaxPB said:

    My twitter feed seems to be full of debate as to whether gardening and knitting are racist.

    Twitter. It's for idiots.
    For idiots. By idiots.

    Its only use is in proving DEVO were right.....
  • Options
    johntjohnt Posts: 86
    A well argued piece Alastair. The consequence we have yet to understand of brexit is the impact it will have on the political parties. The Tories have always portrayed themselves as the party of the economy and law and order. How will the damage brexit has done (and will continue to do) to the economy and their decision to openly advocate breaking international law play with their supporters in the long run? Can they successfully manage to brush the last four years under the carpet and hope to move on. They have powerful supporters in the press who will try and make that happen and they will resort to their normal approach of ignoring their own record and trying to dig dirt on the opposition. Will it work again? Labour seemingly have an opportunity but I suspect that they are pretty divided on the EU and what to do next. They need to formulate a policy and that is not going to be easy. They should have the perfect opportunity for headway but will they have the personalities and policies to resonate with the public? Can the Lib Dems or the Green profit from having been the parties which seem to have been most unified over brexit now the policies they have been advocating all along seem to match the public mood. I suspect that this might be a moment where we will end up with some huge surprises. Labour might start making progress in the polls and in elections and they could take the next general election easily, or they might implode and disappear. The same is true of the Tories who may manage to sell Brexit as a great success and consolidate another decade in power. I struggle to see many political certainties over the next 2 or 3 years. But ultimately the young people of the UK see themselves as European, they are, in my experience, deeply unhappy with Brexit and the Tories and that will be a major hurdle for Johnson and co to clear. So, personally I would much rather be where the opposition is now to holding the limited cards available to Johnson. Particularly as the next huge battle will be for Scotland where Johnson is very much on the back foot.
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    @corbyn_project is the twitter handle for those that are interested....
  • Options
    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    Well, that was a busy morning! Had me jab...
    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1338099414901067777?s=09

    It must have hurt if you bit through your lolly stick like that?
    he got a free lolly for being a brave little soldier.
  • Options
    johnt said:

    A well argued piece Alastair. The consequence we have yet to understand of brexit is the impact it will have on the political parties. The Tories have always portrayed themselves as the party of the economy and law and order. How will the damage brexit has done (and will continue to do) to the economy and their decision to openly advocate breaking international law play with their supporters in the long run? Can they successfully manage to brush the last four years under the carpet and hope to move on. They have powerful supporters in the press who will try and make that happen and they will resort to their normal approach of ignoring their own record and trying to dig dirt on the opposition. Will it work again? Labour seemingly have an opportunity but I suspect that they are pretty divided on the EU and what to do next. They need to formulate a policy and that is not going to be easy. They should have the perfect opportunity for headway but will they have the personalities and policies to resonate with the public? Can the Lib Dems or the Green profit from having been the parties which seem to have been most unified over brexit now the policies they have been advocating all along seem to match the public mood. I suspect that this might be a moment where we will end up with some huge surprises. Labour might start making progress in the polls and in elections and they could take the next general election easily, or they might implode and disappear. The same is true of the Tories who may manage to sell Brexit as a great success and consolidate another decade in power. I struggle to see many political certainties over the next 2 or 3 years. But ultimately the young people of the UK see themselves as European, they are, in my experience, deeply unhappy with Brexit and the Tories and that will be a major hurdle for Johnson and co to clear. So, personally I would much rather be where the opposition is now to holding the limited cards available to Johnson. Particularly as the next huge battle will be for Scotland where Johnson is very much on the back foot.

    - That would be much easier to read with a few paragraph breaks.
    - Bullet points would make it even clearer.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,497
    felix said:

    Has Jeremy announced his new project yet?

    Why, are you thinking of joining?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,928
    Carrie doesn't seem to have briefed Boris that a Deal is now most likely.
  • Options
    Labour MP Zarah Sultana, who once wrote she would ‘celebrate’ the deaths of Blair and Netanyahu, will join the former leader for the official launch event

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk/corbyn-launches-new-project-to-promote-his-values-worldwide-1.509621
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    felix said:

    Has Jeremy announced his new project yet?

    I heard it's going to be a World's Biggest Marrow competition.

    Huge if true.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    felix said:

    Has Jeremy announced his new project yet?

    Why, are you thinking of joining?
    I would but today's my day for putting lard on the cat's boils so no contest really.
  • Options

    Labour MP Zarah Sultana, who once wrote she would ‘celebrate’ the deaths of Blair and Netanyahu, will join the former leader for the official launch event

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk/corbyn-launches-new-project-to-promote-his-values-worldwide-1.509621

    "Corbyn launches new project to ‘promote his values worldwide’"

    Well, after his resounding success in promoting his values in Britain, this is the logical next step.
  • Options
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Has Jeremy announced his new project yet?

    Why, are you thinking of joining?
    I would but today's my day for putting lard on the cat's boils so no contest really.
    Is that another euphemism I really don't want to look up?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,543

    "Just as we leave the EU, we seem ironically to become ever more European."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/12/13/merkel-johnson-politics-brexit-triumph-economics/

    Still like chocolate on my cappuccinos though.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,503

    johnt said:

    A well argued piece Alastair. The consequence we have yet to understand of brexit is the impact it will have on the political parties. The Tories have always portrayed themselves as the party of the economy and law and order. How will the damage brexit has done (and will continue to do) to the economy and their decision to openly advocate breaking international law play with their supporters in the long run? Can they successfully manage to brush the last four years under the carpet and hope to move on. They have powerful supporters in the press who will try and make that happen and they will resort to their normal approach of ignoring their own record and trying to dig dirt on the opposition. Will it work again? Labour seemingly have an opportunity but I suspect that they are pretty divided on the EU and what to do next. They need to formulate a policy and that is not going to be easy. They should have the perfect opportunity for headway but will they have the personalities and policies to resonate with the public? Can the Lib Dems or the Green profit from having been the parties which seem to have been most unified over brexit now the policies they have been advocating all along seem to match the public mood. I suspect that this might be a moment where we will end up with some huge surprises. Labour might start making progress in the polls and in elections and they could take the next general election easily, or they might implode and disappear. The same is true of the Tories who may manage to sell Brexit as a great success and consolidate another decade in power. I struggle to see many political certainties over the next 2 or 3 years. But ultimately the young people of the UK see themselves as European, they are, in my experience, deeply unhappy with Brexit and the Tories and that will be a major hurdle for Johnson and co to clear. So, personally I would much rather be where the opposition is now to holding the limited cards available to Johnson. Particularly as the next huge battle will be for Scotland where Johnson is very much on the back foot.

    - That would be much easier to read with a few paragraph breaks.
    - Bullet points would make it even clearer.
    It's a good post, though. Insightful and interesting.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,928
    Foxy said:

    Well, that was a busy morning! Had me jab...
    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1338099414901067777?s=09

    Well done - good news!

    It's interesting the card just says 'Covid Vaccine'. Shouldn't they be a bit more specific, given the expectation that there will be several vaccines being rolled out in parallel soon? I assume if you have the Pfizer vaccine now you need the Pfizer again for your second shot.

    (I guess the date precludes the other vaccines at the moment but even so, good habits and all that.)
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited December 2020

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Good news if this is all legitimate. A deal feels much closer now than it did a few days ago.

    Must be odds on from here. Joint statement, no talk of major disagreements, no deadlines. It's going to happen - unless the ERG kicks up one hell of a stink.

    Hopefully, a decent deal (or at least, not totally useless deal) is agreed, the ERG go ape, Johnson passes it with Starmer and Blackford’s backing, and he is brutally defenestrated in the new year.

    Win, win, win.

    Apart from Graham Brady’s unfortunate postie, but with luck a lorry will be provided to avoid a hernia.

    My guess is a minor backbench rebellion, but nothing terminal for Johnson at this stage. The interesting bit will be how much traction Farage's inevitable betrayal narrative now gets. If it moves 5% or so of current Brexit ultra support from the Tories in addition to the percentage that the BXP is now polling, then they will have a serious problem.

    You're delusional if you think Farage is coming back as a post-Brexit political force under First Past the Post. That is absolutely a Not Happening event.

    We'll see.

    PT is right.

    There is a limit to how long anyone can sustain this level of heightened argumentative discourse about our relationship with Europe.

    Eventually, people get tired of arguing about the same thing. Eventually, a country gets tired of arguing. There are other massively important problems breathing down our necks that need our attention.

    An example -- Quebec. There is a reason why there has not been another referendum since 1995, a referendum which after all was very, very narrowly lost by the independence forces.

    Quebec had spent thirty years arguing about its constitutional status in Canada. After 1995, many Quebecois were just exhausted.

    And, the centre of public discourse moved on, after an unspoken compromise was found in which every province agreed the Canadian constitution, bar Quebec.

    I suspect the same will be true of UK/EU relations.
  • Options
    So Jeremy, who should.we get to host the launch of your new project...that Ms Sultana is a nice new fresh face in politics... don't you think that perhaps all your issues with antisemitism, it might be better to use somebody less outspoken...no, I want her to do it...

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk/labour-candidate-apologises-for-saying-zionists-were-not-willingly-to-assimilate-1.493172
  • Options
    kinabalu said:

    johnt said:

    A well argued piece Alastair. The consequence we have yet to understand of brexit is the impact it will have on the political parties. The Tories have always portrayed themselves as the party of the economy and law and order. How will the damage brexit has done (and will continue to do) to the economy and their decision to openly advocate breaking international law play with their supporters in the long run? Can they successfully manage to brush the last four years under the carpet and hope to move on. They have powerful supporters in the press who will try and make that happen and they will resort to their normal approach of ignoring their own record and trying to dig dirt on the opposition. Will it work again? Labour seemingly have an opportunity but I suspect that they are pretty divided on the EU and what to do next. They need to formulate a policy and that is not going to be easy. They should have the perfect opportunity for headway but will they have the personalities and policies to resonate with the public? Can the Lib Dems or the Green profit from having been the parties which seem to have been most unified over brexit now the policies they have been advocating all along seem to match the public mood. I suspect that this might be a moment where we will end up with some huge surprises. Labour might start making progress in the polls and in elections and they could take the next general election easily, or they might implode and disappear. The same is true of the Tories who may manage to sell Brexit as a great success and consolidate another decade in power. I struggle to see many political certainties over the next 2 or 3 years. But ultimately the young people of the UK see themselves as European, they are, in my experience, deeply unhappy with Brexit and the Tories and that will be a major hurdle for Johnson and co to clear. So, personally I would much rather be where the opposition is now to holding the limited cards available to Johnson. Particularly as the next huge battle will be for Scotland where Johnson is very much on the back foot.

    - That would be much easier to read with a few paragraph breaks.
    - Bullet points would make it even clearer.
    It's a good post, though. Insightful and interesting.
    What I said was supposed to be constructive: it is an interesting post, but it can be hard to digest a wall of text.

    I went into teacher mode I'm afraid...
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,565
    edited December 2020
    DougSeal said:

    ClippP said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    stjohn said:

    HYUFD said:

    What an amusing whingefest to wake up to.

    Personally I'm quite content with how Brexit is going. The EU are being scelerotic and unreasonable, so we have two choices: to give in to them or walk away. If I got a vote I would say walk away.
    We have al
    A lot of people are hyperventilating about the impact of a clean Brexit but I think it will be ultimately much ado about nothing, albeit with some disruption. People living in Kent may notice it more but they also voted for it more.

    And if there's some disruption I think people can live with that so long as they think it's all a part of a plan.

    That is not entirely true, East Kent voted heavily Leave, West Kent voted Leave at about the English average, Tunbridge Wells voted Remain
    Yes. But aren’t we now at war with East Kent? Haven’t you seen the Gun Boats in the Channel?
    We have always been at war with East Kent.
    West Kent certainly has.
    Kentish Man versus Man of Kent? And only the Medway between them.
    Or Rainham Mark. Or the settlement areas of the Angles and Jutes. Who can say?
    A Man of Kent once told me the hostilities could be put down to those who drank Fremlins and those who did not.

    I believe that Kent is the only old school English county to have two bishoprics - Canterbury and Rochester
    Hampshire? Winchester and Portsmouth?
    You're quite right about that but if we're talking "old school" the Diocese of Portsmouth was created in 1927 from the Diocese of Winchester. Prior to the Industrial Revolution diocesan boundaries tended to run with county boundaries.
    Well, that’s not true as from 1536 there were 24 dioceses for 43 counties. They ran across boundaries, not with them.

    Kent is however the only old county to have two medieval dioceses. If we’re being picky we could now add Gloucestershire, Cheshire, Lancashire, Cambridgeshire, Warwickshire, Yorkshire and Surrey to that list along with Hampshire.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,928
    This thread's deadline has passed. No extensions are possible.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,503

    kinabalu said:

    johnt said:

    A well argued piece Alastair. The consequence we have yet to understand of brexit is the impact it will have on the political parties. The Tories have always portrayed themselves as the party of the economy and law and order. How will the damage brexit has done (and will continue to do) to the economy and their decision to openly advocate breaking international law play with their supporters in the long run? Can they successfully manage to brush the last four years under the carpet and hope to move on. They have powerful supporters in the press who will try and make that happen and they will resort to their normal approach of ignoring their own record and trying to dig dirt on the opposition. Will it work again? Labour seemingly have an opportunity but I suspect that they are pretty divided on the EU and what to do next. They need to formulate a policy and that is not going to be easy. They should have the perfect opportunity for headway but will they have the personalities and policies to resonate with the public? Can the Lib Dems or the Green profit from having been the parties which seem to have been most unified over brexit now the policies they have been advocating all along seem to match the public mood. I suspect that this might be a moment where we will end up with some huge surprises. Labour might start making progress in the polls and in elections and they could take the next general election easily, or they might implode and disappear. The same is true of the Tories who may manage to sell Brexit as a great success and consolidate another decade in power. I struggle to see many political certainties over the next 2 or 3 years. But ultimately the young people of the UK see themselves as European, they are, in my experience, deeply unhappy with Brexit and the Tories and that will be a major hurdle for Johnson and co to clear. So, personally I would much rather be where the opposition is now to holding the limited cards available to Johnson. Particularly as the next huge battle will be for Scotland where Johnson is very much on the back foot.

    - That would be much easier to read with a few paragraph breaks.
    - Bullet points would make it even clearer.
    It's a good post, though. Insightful and interesting.
    What I said was supposed to be constructive: it is an interesting post, but it can be hard to digest a wall of text.

    I went into teacher mode I'm afraid...
    Nothing wrong with that - especially since you are one.

    Yes, a post that is both very bright and a bit "dense", as it were.
  • Options
    johntjohnt Posts: 86

    kinabalu said:

    johnt said:

    A well argued piece Alastair. The consequence we have yet to understand of brexit is the impact it will have on the political parties. The Tories have always portrayed themselves as the party of the economy and law and order. How will the damage brexit has done (and will continue to do) to the economy and their decision to openly advocate breaking international law play with their supporters in the long run? Can they successfully manage to brush the last four years under the carpet and hope to move on. They have powerful supporters in the press who will try and make that happen and they will resort to their normal approach of ignoring their own record and trying to dig dirt on the opposition. Will it work again? Labour seemingly have an opportunity but I suspect that they are pretty divided on the EU and what to do next. They need to formulate a policy and that is not going to be easy. They should have the perfect opportunity for headway but will they have the personalities and policies to resonate with the public? Can the Lib Dems or the Green profit from having been the parties which seem to have been most unified over brexit now the policies they have been advocating all along seem to match the public mood. I suspect that this might be a moment where we will end up with some huge surprises. Labour might start making progress in the polls and in elections and they could take the next general election easily, or they might implode and disappear. The same is true of the Tories who may manage to sell Brexit as a great success and consolidate another decade in power. I struggle to see many political certainties over the next 2 or 3 years. But ultimately the young people of the UK see themselves as European, they are, in my experience, deeply unhappy with Brexit and the Tories and that will be a major hurdle for Johnson and co to clear. So, personally I would much rather be where the opposition is now to holding the limited cards available to Johnson. Particularly as the next huge battle will be for Scotland where Johnson is very much on the back foot.

    - That would be much easier to read with a few paragraph breaks.
    - Bullet points would make it even clearer.
    It's a good post, though. Insightful and interesting.
    What I said was supposed to be constructive: it is an interesting post, but it can be hard to digest a wall of text.

    I went into teacher mode I'm afraid...
    It's probably a fair point. I will not be offended and take the teachers thoughts on board!

    It was a bit of a brain dump which went longer than I had expected when I started.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,313

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Good news if this is all legitimate. A deal feels much closer now than it did a few days ago.

    Must be odds on from here. Joint statement, no talk of major disagreements, no deadlines. It's going to happen - unless the ERG kicks up one hell of a stink.

    Hopefully, a decent deal (or at least, not totally useless deal) is agreed, the ERG go ape, Johnson passes it with Starmer and Blackford’s backing, and he is brutally defenestrated in the new year.

    Win, win, win.

    Apart from Graham Brady’s unfortunate postie, but with luck a lorry will be provided to avoid a hernia.

    My guess is a minor backbench rebellion, but nothing terminal for Johnson at this stage. The interesting bit will be how much traction Farage's inevitable betrayal narrative now gets. If it moves 5% or so of current Brexit ultra support from the Tories in addition to the percentage that the BXP is now polling, then they will have a serious problem.

    You're delusional if you think Farage is coming back as a post-Brexit political force under First Past the Post. That is absolutely a Not Happening event.

    We'll see.

    PT is right.

    There is a limit to how long anyone can sustain this level of heightened argumentative discourse about our relationship with Europe.

    Eventually, people get tired of arguing about the same thing. Eventually, a country gets tired of arguing. There are other massively important problems breathing down our necks that need our attention.

    An example -- Quebec. There is a reason why there has not been another referendum since 1995, a referendum which after all was very, very narrowly lost by the independence forces.

    Quebec had spent thirty years arguing about its constitutional status in Canada. After 1995, many Quebecois were just exhausted.

    And, the centre of public discourse moved on, after an unspoken compromise was found in which every province agreed the Canadian constitution, bar Quebec.

    I suspect the same will be true of UK/EU relations.
    The trouble is that a compromise along the lines of us following the EU while pretending to be completely independent needs to be constantly reasserted. It's not something that can be done once and forgotten about.
  • Options

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Good news if this is all legitimate. A deal feels much closer now than it did a few days ago.

    Must be odds on from here. Joint statement, no talk of major disagreements, no deadlines. It's going to happen - unless the ERG kicks up one hell of a stink.

    Hopefully, a decent deal (or at least, not totally useless deal) is agreed, the ERG go ape, Johnson passes it with Starmer and Blackford’s backing, and he is brutally defenestrated in the new year.

    Win, win, win.

    Apart from Graham Brady’s unfortunate postie, but with luck a lorry will be provided to avoid a hernia.

    My guess is a minor backbench rebellion, but nothing terminal for Johnson at this stage. The interesting bit will be how much traction Farage's inevitable betrayal narrative now gets. If it moves 5% or so of current Brexit ultra support from the Tories in addition to the percentage that the BXP is now polling, then they will have a serious problem.

    You're delusional if you think Farage is coming back as a post-Brexit political force under First Past the Post. That is absolutely a Not Happening event.

    We'll see.

    PT is right.

    There is a limit to how long anyone can sustain this level of heightened argumentative discourse about our relationship with Europe.

    Eventually, people get tired of arguing about the same thing. Eventually, a country gets tired of arguing. There are other massively important problems breathing down our necks that need our attention.

    An example -- Quebec. There is a reason why there has not been another referendum since 1995, a referendum which after all was very, very narrowly lost by the independence forces.

    Quebec had spent thirty years arguing about its constitutional status in Canada. After 1995, many Quebecois were just exhausted.

    And, the centre of public discourse moved on, after an unspoken compromise was found in which every province agreed the Canadian constitution, bar Quebec.

    I suspect the same will be true of UK/EU relations.
    Indeed. And Farage is in an even worse position politically than the Québécois. Quebec has PQ etc politicians elected under FPTP.

    Farage has never ever succeeded under FPTP, a couple of defectors briefly holding their seats notwithstanding.

    He got the oxygen of publicity from PR elections to the European Parliament but thankfully that nonsense has been eradicated from England now.

    Post Brexit life will move on. The wheel of time turns and ages come and go.
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    Empty 2nd homes (Unless for sale as part of an acquired estate) should be heavily taxed - inefficient use of stock
    I know it is just my personal view and there are probably plenty of reasons why I am wrong but I cannot see a house as anything other than a home. When we do not have enough houses and we are concreting over the countryside to build them, second home ownership to me seems a bit like profiteering from the sale of vital medicines.

    Like I say that is just me but it does seem very anti-social.

    Funnily enough given how much they are vilified I make an exception for landlords in the private sector who are obviously providing homes for people to live in.
  • Options
    johnt said:

    kinabalu said:

    johnt said:

    A well argued piece Alastair. The consequence we have yet to understand of brexit is the impact it will have on the political parties. The Tories have always portrayed themselves as the party of the economy and law and order. How will the damage brexit has done (and will continue to do) to the economy and their decision to openly advocate breaking international law play with their supporters in the long run? Can they successfully manage to brush the last four years under the carpet and hope to move on. They have powerful supporters in the press who will try and make that happen and they will resort to their normal approach of ignoring their own record and trying to dig dirt on the opposition. Will it work again? Labour seemingly have an opportunity but I suspect that they are pretty divided on the EU and what to do next. They need to formulate a policy and that is not going to be easy. They should have the perfect opportunity for headway but will they have the personalities and policies to resonate with the public? Can the Lib Dems or the Green profit from having been the parties which seem to have been most unified over brexit now the policies they have been advocating all along seem to match the public mood. I suspect that this might be a moment where we will end up with some huge surprises. Labour might start making progress in the polls and in elections and they could take the next general election easily, or they might implode and disappear. The same is true of the Tories who may manage to sell Brexit as a great success and consolidate another decade in power. I struggle to see many political certainties over the next 2 or 3 years. But ultimately the young people of the UK see themselves as European, they are, in my experience, deeply unhappy with Brexit and the Tories and that will be a major hurdle for Johnson and co to clear. So, personally I would much rather be where the opposition is now to holding the limited cards available to Johnson. Particularly as the next huge battle will be for Scotland where Johnson is very much on the back foot.

    - That would be much easier to read with a few paragraph breaks.
    - Bullet points would make it even clearer.
    It's a good post, though. Insightful and interesting.
    What I said was supposed to be constructive: it is an interesting post, but it can be hard to digest a wall of text.

    I went into teacher mode I'm afraid...
    It's probably a fair point. I will not be offended and take the teachers thoughts on board!

    It was a bit of a brain dump which went longer than I had expected when I started.
    Glad you took my comment as constructive!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,313
    Johnson: "The most likely thing now is we have to get ready for WTO terms [no-deal]."

    Not that it will happen, but that we need to get ready for it. He is frit.
  • Options
    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    new thread
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,503
    edited December 2020

    Johnson: "The most likely thing now is we have to get ready for WTO terms [no-deal]."

    Not that it will happen, but that we need to get ready for it. He is frit.

    I think he is frit of No Deal - but he also isn't because he knows he won't be doing it. Harks back to what you and I agreed last year. He wouldn't have No Dealed then either and so there was no need for that Benn Act, which did so much to set up the "PvP" climate he needed for the election.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,565

    This thread's deadline has passed. No extensions are possible.

    But Betfair still won’t settle up.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    HYUFD said:

    Regarding the polling in Alistair Meeks thread header, a trade deal closely aligned to the EU is the most popular choice with 58% having it as their first choice or acceptable to them, followed by a trade deal with a clear break from the EU which is the first choice or acceptable to 56% of voters, then rejoining the EU which is first choice or acceptable to 47% of voters.

    No Deal is the least popular outcome but it is still the first choice or acceptable to 41% of voters

    https://twitter.com/AGKD123/status/1335499018550587392?s=20

    Polls are absolutely meaningless. It is midterm.
    We are some way from midterm!
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    TresTres Posts: 2,271
    HYUFD said:

    Tres said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tres said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Jonathan, May certainly struggled to get her own party on-side.

    However, when you've got the 'pro'-EU side lining up alongside hardline Leavers that was undoubtedly an act that could be called bloody silly. Pro-EU MPs have been the best unwitting allies of sceptics for years, from the stupid reneging of the Lisbon vote through to compelling May to get Commons approval for her deal, to then refusing the deal on three occasions, and now complaining that, having successfully removed almost every alternative, we're set for a turbulent No Deal, in all probability.

    *sighs*

    There's such a thing as nuance. As a middle between extremes. One might forget that, given blind opposition to The Enemy seems to be a prevailing school of thought amongst many in politics.

    Who was more constructive , Remainer Clarke or Leaver Boris?
    Leaver Boris.
    Citation needed!
    Boris got Brexit done.

    He's taking back control.

    He's even ensuring Brexit means Brexit.

    Besides platitudes what do you want a citation for?
    Because your assertion is factually incorrect, unless by "constructive" you mean he has built more lorry parks around the M2 and M20 and constructed a raft of new customs paperwork and an unnecessary hostility to our nearest neighbours.

    The man is an embarrassment to our country. Turning up to Brussels looking like Benny Hill's Fred Scuttle, with his unkempt hair and ill fitting suit, His Environment speech yesterday was remarkable, particularly it's conclusion, which was utterly humiliating. And that is just first impressions, what goes beyond is an incompetence based on the inability to make a decision that he fears might annoy his base.

    Whenever I go off on one about my utter contempt for Johnson, I find myself with a handful of extra "off-topics". "Off-topic" away, although I believe my post does relate to Alastair's excellent thread header and Johnson's shambolic handling of Brexit.
    I don't off topic anyone. It is cowardly, anonymous and rude. Plus it spams OGH.

    If I disagree with you then I'll say so to your face.

    I disagree with you. Boris is shaping up to be potentially the second best postwar PM and third most consequential.
    I wasn't suggesting you would "off-topic".

    We will have to agree to disagree about Johnson's legacy. I didn't like Mrs Thatcher, but I can understand why people did rate her so highly. As for Johnson, I cannot see past the Fred Scuttle, half-wittery.
    Johnson's legacy it is too early to say but I think he has the potential to be up there with Attlee and Thatcher as one of the three most consequential PMs post war.

    Blair had the potential too but threw it away.
    Johnson's legacy will be the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland ceasing to exist.
    It won't, the government has made clear 2014 was a once in a generation vote and it will refuse to allow indyref2 even if Sturgeon gets a Holyrood majority next year and Northern Ireland has been given special arrangements to protect the GFA and minimise checks on goods going to and from GB
    Just another Johnsonian lie, to sit nicely along with the oven-ready deal and a slogan slapped onto a bus.
    No, Boris has a majority now unlike last year and while he is not going to risk upsetting his Leaver base he can largely ignore Scotland which did not vote for him anyway bar 6 seats and he can especially afford to ignore Sturgeon given he has a majority of 80 and is not going to risk being the last UK PM however much she whinges
    All ignoring Sturgeon will do is secure Johnson's legacy as the foolish PM who destroyed the Union.
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