That's the most reliable measure because as the ONS notes on "deaths within 28 days of a positive COVID test":
Data from the four nations are not directly comparable as methodologies and inclusion criteria vary.
Which throws up some interesting questions on the gaps between "COVID 28 day reported deaths" and "Death Certificate mentioning COVID deaths"
Per 100,000, 28 day / Death Certificate / Difference (%):
Wales: 84.7 / 109.5 / +24.8 (29%)
Scotland: 71.2 / 98.5 / +27.3 (38%)
N Ireland: 54.5 / 68.7 / +14.2 (26%)
England: 94.2 / 105.9 / +11.7 (12%)
Clearly death certificates are going to catch more COVID cases than COVID tests - but when the dust settles it will be interesting to find out why there is such a huge variation across the administrations.
The only thing really worth comparing will be the excess deaths once this is all over. There is simply too much variation in the definition of COVID-19 deaths to make useful comparisons.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
There'll be a deal. It just has to go to the stroke of midnight and beyond - with leaks of great late drama and conflicts - so that Muscles and Manu are perceived by their publics to have battled to the death for their respective nations. This is not cynicism from me - I hate cynicism - it's simply the clear and obvious reality. We will not be moving to WTO terms and playing fast and loose with the Irish border. Only a total Brexit headbanger PM such as John "hey you get off of our trout" Redwood would even contemplate such utter madness.
No, Philip, the deal is coming. So get the coffee on and get ready for a typefest ...
Yes I hope and expect the EU should concede and recognise our cards and give us the Canada style FTA we have been asking for.
There's no guarantees of it though.
How many lorries travel between the EU and Canada each day, Phil?
C'mon malc, folk moving from suggesting that Scotland's public services are not as 'resilient' as those of the rest of the UK to 'we're all as shit as each other' has got to be seen as a positive.
Ah the wee Scotland defence. It's tiresome. The data you quoted was out of date. It is what it is. If you want to split hairs between a rate of 98.5 and 105 then sure, go right ahead.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
You’d have thought the EU would be familiar by now, with the concept of an insurance policy against a failure to make a deal?
It is a backstop. But this backstop is in conflict with the other backstop. I think this is the EU's problem with it. Still, all a matter of negotiation at the end of the day.
Of course it’s a backstop, and deals make backstops go away. I still think there’s just about a landing point for a deal based on trade, but I’m worried that Macron might be making it impossible with his belligerent attitude.
When you consider how socially distanced the US is versus the UK that's not really true.
The US has a population density of 36/km^2 and has negligible public transport as a national percentage of how people commute.
Population density is an incredibly misleading stat. You are much better looking at the percentage of the population living in an urban area, which quite often comes out around 80% in advanced economies even when the population density can be an order of magnitude different between them.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
The differences between the home nations aren’t particularly significant. That between us and (say) Taiwan or Korea is massive.
Agreed. It has been a chastening experience. In March, I honestly thought we would do much better.
The home nations are basically arguing over who is bottom of the bottom set.
(Trump is in a set of his own).
The UK is actually doing a bit worse than the US.The west coast has had a goodish covid so far
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
The differences between the home nations aren’t particularly significant. That between us and (say) Taiwan or Korea is massive.
Agreed. It has been a chastening experience. In March, I honestly thought we would do much better.
The home nations are basically arguing over who is bottom of the bottom set.
(Trump is in a set of his own).
The UK is actually doing a bit worse than the US.The west coast has had a goodish covid so far
I think you do have to factor (amongst other things) variations in population density. Even California (the most populous state) is half the population density of England.
But, I think you can reasonably compare like with like e.g., the Dakotas to across-the-border Manitoba. That is not a very favourable comparison for the US.
Maybe it would be interesting to look at just big cities, because then the population density is alway high and variation in this factor may not be too important.
So, an interesting question is how is London doing compared to NYC or LA?
(I'm sure if you do this globally, the big cities that did best are all in East Asia.)
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
You will have to educate me on what we have learnt from the Channel Islands approach & outcomes.
Guernsey - shut border on March 18th, since then has controlled it, first with mandatory self quarantine (14 days), robustly policed, with fines up to £10,000 and imprisonment for non payment, later with testing at day 7 (dropped since the UK went downhill), now testing all on arrival, but still with 14 day self quarantine. Since the summer all other restrictions (social distancing, mask wearing etc) have been dropped. Currently there are 4 cases, all identified through testing on arrival. Guernsey got lucky - its CMO is an epidemiologist who started preparing/training/recruiting in January when the first reports emerged from Wuhan, political leaders who listened and a community which responded well.
Jersey - much looser border control, lower levels of fines and shorter quarantine. The government decided to prioritise "the economy". They've now got untracked community transmission, with the UK equivalent of 47,000 new cases identified yesterday, with almost certainly more emerging today and for the next couple of weeks. They decided on Wednesday to close all hospitality until the New Year, from Friday. You get one guess how busy pubs & restaurants were on the following nights. When Guernsey closed its pubs & restaurants at the start of the pandemic the announcement was at lunchtime, effective 6pm that day. Guernsey has also done a much better job, it would appear at communicating - there's a "welcome home" pack for students with very clear, specific advice - for example, don't hug your mum on return, unless the whole family is going into quarantine. Last night's news had clips of Jersey students returning home, hugging right left & centre. They've now got 10 in hospital and 440 active cases, I shudder to think what todays news will be - although they've just restarted weekend reporting (something Guernsey has done throughout).
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
TUD has linked to incorrect or old data. There's is no difference between England, Scotland and Wales wrt COVID deaths. All three countries are at or around 100 deaths per 100k.
Disagree, Scotland is about 75 same as England, Wales is over a hundred and NI 30 ish PS , talking about current numbers , overall Scotland is well below England
C'mon malc, folk moving from suggesting that Scotland's public services are not as 'resilient' as those of the rest of the UK to 'we're all as shit as each other' has got to be seen as a positive.
Ah the wee Scotland defence. It's tiresome. The data you quoted was out of date. It is what it is. If you want to split hairs between a rate of 98.5 and 105 then sure, go right ahead.
Eh? this shows a total Scotland death rate of 3889 out of 60000 or so total UK = 6.4% of the UK total, versus 8.5% of the population.
The difference is even greater in terms of hospitalised patients - and the fact that Scotland patient numbers peak came almost a month before England is further evidence something is different.
Though (a) that site itself says not to compare as different methods/criteria, and (b) as already pointed out there is population density etc. (But on that last point, so few folk live in sheep country, the Islands, anyway that they don't make much difference I should think.)
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
TUD has linked to incorrect or old data. There's is no difference between England, Scotland and Wales wrt COVID deaths. All three countries are at or around 100 deaths per 100k.
Disagree, Scotland is about 75 same as England, Wales is over a hundred and NI 30 ish PS , talking about current numbers , overall Scotland is well below England
C'mon malc, folk moving from suggesting that Scotland's public services are not as 'resilient' as those of the rest of the UK to 'we're all as shit as each other' has got to be seen as a positive.
Ah the wee Scotland defence. It's tiresome. The data you quoted was out of date. It is what it is. If you want to split hairs between a rate of 98.5 and 105 then sure, go right ahead.
Eh? this shows a total Scotland death rate of 3889 out of 60000 or so total UK = 6.4% of the UK total, versus 8.5% of the population.
The difference is even greater in terms of hospitalised patients - and the fact that Scotland patient numbers peak came almost a month before England is further evidence something is different.
Though (a) that site itself says not to compare as different methods/criteria, and (b) as already pointed out there is population density etc. (But on that last point, so few folk live in sheep country, the Islands, anyway that they don't make much difference I should think.)
Scotland has the biggest disparity (38%) between "Died of COVID within 28 days" deaths and "COVID mentioned on Death Certificate" deaths - for example, in England its 12%. The most reliable current measure is "death certificates" - but longer term "excess deaths" will provide the truest picture.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
The differences between the home nations aren’t particularly significant. That between us and (say) Taiwan or Korea is massive.
Agreed. It has been a chastening experience. In March, I honestly thought we would do much better.
The home nations are basically arguing over who is bottom of the bottom set.
(Trump is in a set of his own).
I think Trump comes close to being indictable for mass murder.
(He was right about injecting bleach. It kills the virus. Because it kills the host.)
Trump should be rotting in prison. Let us all hope we live to see that happen.
Trump's COVID response was like the Jonestown Massacre on a truly national scale.
When you consider how socially distanced the US is versus the UK that's not really true.
The US has a population density of 36/km^2 and has negligible public transport as a national percentage of how people commute.
Population density is an incredibly misleading stat. You are much better looking at the percentage of the population living in an urban area, which quite often comes out around 80% in advanced economies even when the population density can be an order of magnitude different between them.
Not necessarily. When your country is largely socially distanced homes where almost everyone loves in a detached house with a driveway and cars, drives everywhere and even shops etc are massive and open spaces ... Versus another country where many people are packed like sardines into terraced houses, with tiny bustling shops and public transport ... Then it is very relevant.
Besides a couple of high profile cities like San Francisco and New York most of America lives far more naturally socially distanced than most of the UK does.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
You’d have thought the EU would be familiar by now, with the concept of an insurance policy against a failure to make a deal?
It is a backstop. But this backstop is in conflict with the other backstop. I think this is the EU's problem with it. Still, all a matter of negotiation at the end of the day.
Of course it’s a backstop, and deals make backstops go away. I still think there’s just about a landing point for a deal based on trade, but I’m worried that Macron might be making it impossible with his belligerent attitude.
We've heard this - Macron threatens to veto something to do with Brexit - so many times. I'm certain it's PR for a domestic audience. Ditto with Johnson.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
TUD has linked to incorrect or old data. There's is no difference between England, Scotland and Wales wrt COVID deaths. All three countries are at or around 100 deaths per 100k.
Disagree, Scotland is about 75 same as England, Wales is over a hundred and NI 30 ish PS , talking about current numbers , overall Scotland is well below England
C'mon malc, folk moving from suggesting that Scotland's public services are not as 'resilient' as those of the rest of the UK to 'we're all as shit as each other' has got to be seen as a positive.
Ah the wee Scotland defence. It's tiresome. The data you quoted was out of date. It is what it is. If you want to split hairs between a rate of 98.5 and 105 then sure, go right ahead.
Eh? this shows a total Scotland death rate of 3889 out of 60000 or so total UK = 6.4% of the UK total, versus 8.5% of the population.
The difference is even greater in terms of hospitalised patients - and the fact that Scotland patient numbers peak came almost a month before England is further evidence something is different.
Though (a) that site itself says not to compare as different methods/criteria, and (b) as already pointed out there is population density etc. (But on that last point, so few folk live in sheep country, the Islands, anyway that they don't make much difference I should think.)
Scotland has the biggest disparity (38%) between "Died of COVID within 28 days" deaths and "COVID mentioned on Death Certificate" deaths - for example, in England its 12%. The most reliable current measure is "death certificates" - but longer term "excess deaths" will provide the truest picture.
Quite so re the last. (Though one would want to know about any procedural differences in how they record causes of death - I have a dim memory of reading about that recently but I can't remember what it was or where it was - it didn';t register, so to speak, at the time as it was in a family history context and I wasn't concentrating on that aspect.)
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
The differences between the home nations aren’t particularly significant. That between us and (say) Taiwan or Korea is massive.
Agreed. It has been a chastening experience. In March, I honestly thought we would do much better.
The home nations are basically arguing over who is bottom of the bottom set.
(Trump is in a set of his own).
I think Trump comes close to being indictable for mass murder.
Even worse perhaps are those like the governor of Florida, when it’s clear that a vaccine will in the spring be widely available, banning cities from taking measures like mask mandates. I don’t even understand the logic unless he actively wants more people to die.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
You’d have thought the EU would be familiar by now, with the concept of an insurance policy against a failure to make a deal?
It is a backstop. But this backstop is in conflict with the other backstop. I think this is the EU's problem with it. Still, all a matter of negotiation at the end of the day.
Of course it’s a backstop, and deals make backstops go away. I still think there’s just about a landing point for a deal based on trade, but I’m worried that Macron might be making it impossible with his belligerent attitude.
We've heard this - Macron threatens to veto something to do with Brexit - so many times. I'm certain it's PR for a domestic audience. Ditto with Johnson.
Well precisely.
Macron can posture all he wants but deep down he knows we hold the Aces so whether he wants to eliminate his fishermen to say he was tough with Les Rosbifs is what we are waiting to find out.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
There'll be a deal. It just has to go to the stroke of midnight and beyond - with leaks of great late drama and conflicts - so that Muscles and Manu are perceived by their publics to have battled to the death for their respective nations. This is not cynicism from me - I hate cynicism - it's simply the clear and obvious reality. We will not be moving to WTO terms and playing fast and loose with the Irish border. Only a total Brexit headbanger PM such as John "hey you get off of our trout" Redwood would even contemplate such utter madness.
No, Philip, the deal is coming. So get the coffee on and get ready for a typefest ...
Yes I hope and expect the EU should concede and recognise our cards and give us the Canada style FTA we have been asking for.
There's no guarantees of it though.
How many lorries travel between the EU and Canada each day, Phil?
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
The differences between the home nations aren’t particularly significant. That between us and (say) Taiwan or Korea is massive.
Agreed. It has been a chastening experience. In March, I honestly thought we would do much better.
The home nations are basically arguing over who is bottom of the bottom set.
(Trump is in a set of his own).
The UK is actually doing a bit worse than the US.The west coast has had a goodish covid so far
When you consider how socially distanced the US is versus the UK that's not really true.
The US has a population density of 36/km^2 and has negligible public transport as a national percentage of how people commute.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
Aberdeen is its own place for sure, though outbreaks of Scandinavian sensibilities are entirely accidental. Hadn't thought about it but you're right, it's odd that there haven't been any Aberdeen based dramas. There's no shortage of local avarice, murderousness, ambition, gross wealth, vulgarity and all the other good stuff. Trump thought it a suitable setting for his grossness for Gawd's sake.
Definite gap in the market there. Perhaps something centred around the Oil rush in the 60s and 70s. Dallas is what will probably spring to most minds but I'm more thinking of this nordic one which I watched and enjoyed (a lot) this year.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
Aberdeen is its own place for sure, though outbreaks of Scandinavian sensibilities are entirely accidental. Hadn't thought about it but you're right, it's odd that there haven't been any Aberdeen based dramas. There's no shortage of local avarice, murderousness, ambition, gross wealth, vulgarity and all the other good stuff. Trump thought it a suitable setting for his grossness for Gawd's sake.
Got some decent crime fiction too via Stuart McBridge's Logan Macrae series.
And I seem to recall that one of Christopher Brookmyre's crime capers featured a villain who was essentially driven to it by his daily commute over the River Don.
He's right, but a second referendum would have given cover for all sorts of nasties to do their evil work and led us to a place even uglier. What a miserable state of affairs.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
Aberdeen is its own place for sure, though outbreaks of Scandinavian sensibilities are entirely accidental. Hadn't thought about it but you're right, it's odd that there haven't been any Aberdeen based dramas. There's no shortage of local avarice, murderousness, ambition, gross wealth, vulgarity and all the other good stuff. Trump thought it a suitable setting for his grossness for Gawd's sake.
Definite gap in the market there. Perhaps something centred around the Oil rush in the 60s and 70s. Dallas is what will probably spring to most minds but I'm more thinking of this nordic one which I watched and enjoyed (a lot) this year.
Hold on. Johnson at Chequers? Are you allowed to visit your second home under the Tier system? Seem to recall NYorks police are checking number plates for precisely this kind of unnecessary weekend trip.
I'm not sure for social purposes, I think so though it's not recommended for Tier 3 from memory.
But he's hosting and negotiating with Von Der Leyen, that would quite clearly be work related and work meetings are definitely allowed under even Tier 3.
He’s not hosting her. It’s a telephone call which he can perfectly well do from No 10. There is no reason for him to travel to Chequers at all.
exactly. one rule for them, another rule for rest of us. yet again.
Well maybe. I'll await further details, so that it's not that italian airport 'outrage' again.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
The weather features as much as the villains and polis in Stuart McBride's detective novels set in Aberdeenshire - but I don't think they have been filmed.
You should (or rather shouldn't) try Shetland in winter - much darker even than Aberdeen, and stormier. (But wonderful in June/July.) There is a TV detective series IIRC with Douglas Henshall as a leading actor. Never tried it, but I hardly watch TVG anyway.
Put your efforts into something more constructive.
He does have a point on No Deal though, Brexit to be viable longer term needs a Deal, whether Canada style or Norway style or whatever, no trade deal at all will embolden Remainers in that it will leave Brexit support confined to the diehards, there would almost certainly be a big majority in the polls for returning to the EU next year if the only alternative Brexiteers can produce is No Deal with our largest export destination by January
Anyone want any odds on the chances of Labour explicitly having 'we will reapply for membership of the EU' in their manifesto?
If we go to No Deal in January and it proves a disaster with mass unemployment etc and tensions across the Union and as unpopular in the polls as the poll tax was then I think that is quite likely, however I think if that was the case Tory MPs would take fright and replace Boris with Sunak to get a deal as they did in 1990 when they replaced Thatcher with Major who then dumped the poll tax
I can see the logic of Rishi, and he has kept his head down on Brexit (clever Rishi, or smart Sunak) but can he avoid being covered by the splatters of poo from a Brexitshambles? Would ruin his lovely hoodie.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
The differences between the home nations aren’t particularly significant. That between us and (say) Taiwan or Korea is massive.
Agreed. It has been a chastening experience. In March, I honestly thought we would do much better.
The home nations are basically arguing over who is bottom of the bottom set.
(Trump is in a set of his own).
The UK is actually doing a bit worse than the US.The west coast has had a goodish covid so far
When you consider how socially distanced the US is versus the UK that's not really true.
The US has a population density of 36/km^2 and has negligible public transport as a national percentage of how people commute.
Which proves my point. The biggest differential is that the states at the top of the 'table' for worst death outcomes are high population density states.
New Jersey and New York have a very different population density to Kansas or Alabama.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
There'll be a deal. It just has to go to the stroke of midnight and beyond - with leaks of great late drama and conflicts - so that Muscles and Manu are perceived by their publics to have battled to the death for their respective nations. This is not cynicism from me - I hate cynicism - it's simply the clear and obvious reality. We will not be moving to WTO terms and playing fast and loose with the Irish border. Only a total Brexit headbanger PM such as John "hey you get off of our trout" Redwood would even contemplate such utter madness.
No, Philip, the deal is coming. So get the coffee on and get ready for a typefest ...
Yes I hope and expect the EU should concede and recognise our cards and give us the Canada style FTA we have been asking for.
There's no guarantees of it though.
You'll be able to call it a "Canada style" deal, don't worry.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
Aberdeen is its own place for sure, though outbreaks of Scandinavian sensibilities are entirely accidental. Hadn't thought about it but you're right, it's odd that there haven't been any Aberdeen based dramas. There's no shortage of local avarice, murderousness, ambition, gross wealth, vulgarity and all the other good stuff. Trump thought it a suitable setting for his grossness for Gawd's sake.
Definite gap in the market there. Perhaps something centred around the Oil rush in the 60s and 70s. Dallas is what will probably spring to most minds but I'm more thinking of this nordic one which I watched and enjoyed (a lot) this year.
‘Local Hero’ comes to mind. Admittedly, it was made a long time ago.
It was. Oddly it was filmed on both the NE and W coasts - Pennan, Arisaig, IIRC. Very disconcerting, like Inspector Morse teleporting between Oxford colleges as he walks from one quad to another, only worse.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
There'll be a deal. It just has to go to the stroke of midnight and beyond - with leaks of great late drama and conflicts - so that Muscles and Manu are perceived by their publics to have battled to the death for their respective nations. This is not cynicism from me - I hate cynicism - it's simply the clear and obvious reality. We will not be moving to WTO terms and playing fast and loose with the Irish border. Only a total Brexit headbanger PM such as John "hey you get off of our trout" Redwood would even contemplate such utter madness.
No, Philip, the deal is coming. So get the coffee on and get ready for a typefest ...
Yes I hope and expect the EU should concede and recognise our cards and give us the Canada style FTA we have been asking for.
There's no guarantees of it though.
You'll be able to call it a "Canada style" deal, don't worry.
I've put my cards on the table. If the UK can control it's own laws then it is Canada style.
If we can't, if we are eg under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, then we are not.
Standard FTA style ISDS dispute resolution would be Canada style.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
Aberdeen is its own place for sure, though outbreaks of Scandinavian sensibilities are entirely accidental. Hadn't thought about it but you're right, it's odd that there haven't been any Aberdeen based dramas. There's no shortage of local avarice, murderousness, ambition, gross wealth, vulgarity and all the other good stuff. Trump thought it a suitable setting for his grossness for Gawd's sake.
Definite gap in the market there. Perhaps something centred around the Oil rush in the 60s and 70s. Dallas is what will probably spring to most minds but I'm more thinking of this nordic one which I watched and enjoyed (a lot) this year.
‘Local Hero’ comes to mind. Admittedly, it was made a long time ago.
And if it doesn't have to be C21 muuurder, and one is allowed to go out amongst the bothie loons and their quines in the hinterland, ther eis always Sunset Song
When you consider how socially distanced the US is versus the UK that's not really true.
The US has a population density of 36/km^2 and has negligible public transport as a national percentage of how people commute.
Population density is an incredibly misleading stat. You are much better looking at the percentage of the population living in an urban area, which quite often comes out around 80% in advanced economies even when the population density can be an order of magnitude different between them.
Not necessarily. When your country is largely socially distanced homes where almost everyone loves in a detached house with a driveway and cars, drives everywhere and even shops etc are massive and open spaces ... Versus another country where many people are packed like sardines into terraced houses, with tiny bustling shops and public transport ... Then it is very relevant.
Besides a couple of high profile cities like San Francisco and New York most of America lives far more naturally socially distanced than most of the UK does.
Sure there are still differences between countries, but using population density for comparison is almost always misleading. Most people in low population density advanced economies do not live out in the sticks as their numbers might imply, they live in towns and cities which are not too disimilar from other countries with similar economies. You should start from the urban population, and then make adjustments, but do not include thousands and thousands of square miles of tundra with not a soul to be seen.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
it's odd that there haven't been any Aberdeen based dramas. There's no shortage of local avarice, murderousness, ambition, gross wealth, vulgarity and all the other good stuff.
I hope you don't work for the aberdeen tourism board.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
Aberdeen is its own place for sure, though outbreaks of Scandinavian sensibilities are entirely accidental. Hadn't thought about it but you're right, it's odd that there haven't been any Aberdeen based dramas. There's no shortage of local avarice, murderousness, ambition, gross wealth, vulgarity and all the other good stuff. Trump thought it a suitable setting for his grossness for Gawd's sake.
Definite gap in the market there. Perhaps something centred around the Oil rush in the 60s and 70s. Dallas is what will probably spring to most minds but I'm more thinking of this nordic one which I watched and enjoyed (a lot) this year.
‘Local Hero’ comes to mind. Admittedly, it was made a long time ago.
And if it doesn't have to be C21 muuurder, and one is allowed to go out amongst the bothie loons and their quines in the hinterland, ther eis always Sunset Song
Forgot about that one. And I adore Terence Davies - though it has some moments of stunning beauty (as all his films do), I think it’s not altogether one of his best.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
I'm not a fan of the Covid nationalism that not infrequently breaks out on here, but Scotland has done a 'bit' better (or less badly if you'd prefer); if these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it.
'Scotland has had 3 848 confirmed Covid deaths or 704 per million putting her in 22nd place. England with 52 601 deaths or 935 per million would be in 5th place and Wales with 2 638 or 837 per milliom would be in 11th place, just slightly worse than the USA. Northern Ireland with 542 would be way down the list.
I'm not a fan of COVID nationalism either -- other than as an indication of which policies pursued by the various politicians have actually worked.
I think the table you linked to is interesting, but part of the story. To properly compare Scotland with England or Wales, I think you would want to compare e.g., regions of similar population density/demographics e.g., Central Belt with NE England or South Wales valleys. And the maybe with some equivalent regions on the continent.
I think I agree with David Spiegalhalter that the comparison is not easy, but you don't need to do lots of clever statistics to see Germany has done well.
"If these numbers were reversed you can be sure we'd never hear the end of it"
I agree with that. World Cup 1966, Olympics, Johnny Wilkinson's drop goal, and the Covid Tables would then skip easily off the English politician's tongue.😁
The differences between the home nations aren’t particularly significant. That between us and (say) Taiwan or Korea is massive.
Agreed. It has been a chastening experience. In March, I honestly thought we would do much better.
The home nations are basically arguing over who is bottom of the bottom set.
(Trump is in a set of his own).
I think Trump comes close to being indictable for mass murder.
Even worse perhaps are those like the governor of Florida, when it’s clear that a vaccine will in the spring be widely available, banning cities from taking measures like mask mandates. I don’t even understand the logic unless he actively wants more people to die.
I've been reading a bit recently about the great Chinese famine caused by Mao's political zealotry and refusal to bend to reality regardless of the human cost.
When you consider how socially distanced the US is versus the UK that's not really true.
The US has a population density of 36/km^2 and has negligible public transport as a national percentage of how people commute.
Population density is an incredibly misleading stat. You are much better looking at the percentage of the population living in an urban area, which quite often comes out around 80% in advanced economies even when the population density can be an order of magnitude different between them.
Not necessarily. When your country is largely socially distanced homes where almost everyone loves in a detached house with a driveway and cars, drives everywhere and even shops etc are massive and open spaces ... Versus another country where many people are packed like sardines into terraced houses, with tiny bustling shops and public transport ... Then it is very relevant.
Besides a couple of high profile cities like San Francisco and New York most of America lives far more naturally socially distanced than most of the UK does.
Sure there are still differences between countries, but using population density for comparison is almost always misleading. Most people in low population density advanced economies do not live out in the sticks as their numbers might imply, they live in towns and cities which are not too disimilar from other countries with similar economies. You should start from the urban population, and then make adjustments, but do not include thousands and thousands of square miles of tundra with not a soul to be seen.
Sorry but you're just wrong. Go to a typical US town or city, the median household and it would be a world of difference from the same in the UK.
The median, typical household in the USA lives much more socially distanced naturally than in the UK. Americans who come to the UK can be very shocked how tiny our homes, roads and shops are. Even cars and parking spaces are tiny here compared to across the Atlantic.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
Aberdeen is its own place for sure, though outbreaks of Scandinavian sensibilities are entirely accidental. Hadn't thought about it but you're right, it's odd that there haven't been any Aberdeen based dramas. There's no shortage of local avarice, murderousness, ambition, gross wealth, vulgarity and all the other good stuff. Trump thought it a suitable setting for his grossness for Gawd's sake.
Definite gap in the market there. Perhaps something centred around the Oil rush in the 60s and 70s. Dallas is what will probably spring to most minds but I'm more thinking of this nordic one which I watched and enjoyed (a lot) this year.
Watched that, pretty good I thought (some of that 70s vibe definitely struck a chord). However it had one of my pet hates in dramas, concourse queens for the vintage cars. 'Twas battered Vivas and Granadas round my bit.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
it's odd that there haven't been any Aberdeen based dramas. There's no shortage of local avarice, murderousness, ambition, gross wealth, vulgarity and all the other good stuff.
I hope you don't work for the aberdeen tourism board.
I wonder if the BBC London types get all upset at the thought of broadcasting the broad Doric needed for autthenticity? "We can't possibly be expected to understand the Queen's English as pronounced by the Aberdonians!"
Rather sad really - 'Johnnie Gibb of Gushetneuk' is one of my very favourite novels.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
Aberdeen is its own place for sure, though outbreaks of Scandinavian sensibilities are entirely accidental. Hadn't thought about it but you're right, it's odd that there haven't been any Aberdeen based dramas. There's no shortage of local avarice, murderousness, ambition, gross wealth, vulgarity and all the other good stuff. Trump thought it a suitable setting for his grossness for Gawd's sake.
Got some decent crime fiction too via Stuart McBridge's Logan Macrae series.
And I seem to recall that one of Christopher Brookmyre's crime capers featured a villain who was essentially driven to it by his daily commute over the River Don.
Didn't know about McBridge, I'll pencil him in for when I fulfill one of my resolutions to get back to reading. Mind you if it hasn't happened in 9 months of intermittent lockdown...
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
it's odd that there haven't been any Aberdeen based dramas. There's no shortage of local avarice, murderousness, ambition, gross wealth, vulgarity and all the other good stuff.
I hope you don't work for the aberdeen tourism board.
I wonder if the BBC London types get all upset at the thought of broadcasting the broad Doric needed for autthenticity? "We can't possibly be expected to understand the Queen's English as pronounced by the Aberdonians!"
Rather sad really - 'Johnnie Gibb of Gushetneuk' is one of my very favourite novels.
Not the catchiest of titles, but from the looks of it seems quite interesting. Interestingly, I did recently read The Redemption of Alexander Seaton, which is set in 1620s Banff, though it's much lighter affair from the looks of it.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
Aberdeen is its own place for sure, though outbreaks of Scandinavian sensibilities are entirely accidental. Hadn't thought about it but you're right, it's odd that there haven't been any Aberdeen based dramas. There's no shortage of local avarice, murderousness, ambition, gross wealth, vulgarity and all the other good stuff. Trump thought it a suitable setting for his grossness for Gawd's sake.
Definite gap in the market there. Perhaps something centred around the Oil rush in the 60s and 70s. Dallas is what will probably spring to most minds but I'm more thinking of this nordic one which I watched and enjoyed (a lot) this year.
‘Local Hero’ comes to mind. Admittedly, it was made a long time ago.
And if it doesn't have to be C21 muuurder, and one is allowed to go out amongst the bothie loons and their quines in the hinterland, ther eis always Sunset Song
Forgot about that one. And I adore Terence Davies - though it has some moments of stunning beauty (as all his films do), I think it’s not altogether one of his best.
I like Davies also, but my spirits quailed when I heard him interviewed saying that he'd chosen to film in NZ rather than the Mearns 'cos the weather was more reliable. If you can't incorporate a good North Sea haar in Sunset Song, I think you've missed the point.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
There'll be a deal. It just has to go to the stroke of midnight and beyond - with leaks of great late drama and conflicts - so that Muscles and Manu are perceived by their publics to have battled to the death for their respective nations. This is not cynicism from me - I hate cynicism - it's simply the clear and obvious reality. We will not be moving to WTO terms and playing fast and loose with the Irish border. Only a total Brexit headbanger PM such as John "hey you get off of our trout" Redwood would even contemplate such utter madness.
No, Philip, the deal is coming. So get the coffee on and get ready for a typefest ...
Yes I hope and expect the EU should concede and recognise our cards and give us the Canada style FTA we have been asking for.
There's no guarantees of it though.
You'll be able to call it a "Canada style" deal, don't worry.
I've put my cards on the table. If the UK can control it's own laws then it is Canada style.
If we can't, if we are eg under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, then we are not.
Standard FTA style ISDS dispute resolution would be Canada style.
We should get specific now so as to prevent (you) cheating later. We need a specific to act as the litmus. Here's a suggestion. The deal must allow us to slash Corporation Tax to the bone. Or even abolish it. Not that we will, of course, a right wing Tory government would never do that, but it must not prohibited by the EU under LPF.
If this gets a tick it's proper Brexit. Otherwise it's BINO.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
There'll be a deal. It just has to go to the stroke of midnight and beyond - with leaks of great late drama and conflicts - so that Muscles and Manu are perceived by their publics to have battled to the death for their respective nations. This is not cynicism from me - I hate cynicism - it's simply the clear and obvious reality. We will not be moving to WTO terms and playing fast and loose with the Irish border. Only a total Brexit headbanger PM such as John "hey you get off of our trout" Redwood would even contemplate such utter madness.
No, Philip, the deal is coming. So get the coffee on and get ready for a typefest ...
Yes I hope and expect the EU should concede and recognise our cards and give us the Canada style FTA we have been asking for.
There's no guarantees of it though.
You'll be able to call it a "Canada style" deal, don't worry.
I've put my cards on the table. If the UK can control it's own laws then it is Canada style.
If we can't, if we are eg under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, then we are not.
Standard FTA style ISDS dispute resolution would be Canada style.
We should get specific now so as to prevent (you) cheating later. We need a specific to act as the litmus. Here's a suggestion. The deal must allow us to slash Corporation Tax to the bone. Or even abolish it. Not that we will, of course, a right wing Tory government would never do that, but it must not prohibited by the EU under LPF.
If this gets a tick it's proper Brexit. Otherwise it's BINO.
We go with that as our test?
Yes. Precisely. Unless there's a global Treaty I'm unaware of already forbidding that then that is a good example.
If we can't control our taxes then that is not OK for me. If the Chancellor thought that abolishing Corporation Tax would see companies relocate their HQs to the UK, so we'd get more income tax, national insurance, stamp duty etc etc and we could eventually balance the budget thanks to that then the Chancellor should be free to do that.
It should none of the EUs business what our tax rates are.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
The weather features as much as the villains and polis in Stuart McBride's detective novels set in Aberdeenshire - but I don't think they have been filmed.
You should (or rather shouldn't) try Shetland in winter - much darker even than Aberdeen, and stormier. (But wonderful in June/July.) There is a TV detective series IIRC with Douglas Henshall as a leading actor. Never tried it, but I hardly watch TVG anyway.
Yes, seen all the Shetlands. Quality show imo. Slow but it casts a spell. He often sits outside his cottage at the end of the day with a whisky just staring at the sea. Which is exactly what I'd do in his position.
He's right, but a second referendum would have given cover for all sorts of nasties to do their evil work and led us to a place even uglier. What a miserable state of affairs.
He's right, but a second referendum would have given cover for all sorts of nasties to do their evil work and led us to a place even uglier. What a miserable state of affairs.
I am inclined to blame the LD and ChangeUK MPs who failed to support Ken Clarke's amendment at the time of Letwin's Indicative vote early last year.
Put your efforts into something more constructive.
He does have a point on No Deal though, Brexit to be viable longer term needs a Deal, whether Canada style or Norway style or whatever, no trade deal at all will embolden Remainers in that it will leave Brexit support confined to the diehards, there would almost certainly be a big majority in the polls for returning to the EU next year if the only alternative Brexiteers can produce is No Deal with our largest export destination by January
The remarkable thing is how long it has taken for you to work this out.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
Aberdeen is its own place for sure, though outbreaks of Scandinavian sensibilities are entirely accidental. Hadn't thought about it but you're right, it's odd that there haven't been any Aberdeen based dramas. There's no shortage of local avarice, murderousness, ambition, gross wealth, vulgarity and all the other good stuff. Trump thought it a suitable setting for his grossness for Gawd's sake.
Definite gap in the market there. Perhaps something centred around the Oil rush in the 60s and 70s. Dallas is what will probably spring to most minds but I'm more thinking of this nordic one which I watched and enjoyed (a lot) this year.
‘Local Hero’ comes to mind. Admittedly, it was made a long time ago.
And if it doesn't have to be C21 muuurder, and one is allowed to go out amongst the bothie loons and their quines in the hinterland, ther eis always Sunset Song
Forgot about that one. And I adore Terence Davies - though it has some moments of stunning beauty (as all his films do), I think it’s not altogether one of his best.
Terence Davies ... The Trilogy, Distant Voice, Still Lives, and The Long Day Closes are magnificent, but I find the more recent output largely unwatcheable.
I really like Terence Davies for who he is. It is a remarkable story to leave school at 16, and spend many years as a shipping clerk, and become a film director so late in life. It is a hymn to the latent potential in everyone.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
You’d have thought the EU would be familiar by now, with the concept of an insurance policy against a failure to make a deal?
It is a backstop. But this backstop is in conflict with the other backstop. I think this is the EU's problem with it. Still, all a matter of negotiation at the end of the day.
Of course it’s a backstop, and deals make backstops go away. I still think there’s just about a landing point for a deal based on trade, but I’m worried that Macron might be making it impossible with his belligerent attitude.
We've heard this - Macron threatens to veto something to do with Brexit - so many times. I'm certain it's PR for a domestic audience. Ditto with Johnson.
Well precisely.
Macron can posture all he wants but deep down he knows we hold the Aces so whether he wants to eliminate his fishermen to say he was tough with Les Rosbifs is what we are waiting to find out.
He should blink but politics means he may not.
Better to say "we hold one or two strong cards" than "we hold all the Aces".
Put your efforts into something more constructive.
He does have a point on No Deal though, Brexit to be viable longer term needs a Deal, whether Canada style or Norway style or whatever, no trade deal at all will embolden Remainers in that it will leave Brexit support confined to the diehards, there would almost certainly be a big majority in the polls for returning to the EU next year if the only alternative Brexiteers can produce is No Deal with our largest export destination by January
Anyone want any odds on the chances of Labour explicitly having 'we will reapply for membership of the EU' in their manifesto?
It would be the smart thing to do. Supporting any kind of Johnson deal would be madness for Starmer. If he does that he might as well have acted as a masthead on the Red Bus. Whatever political disaster befall the next four yeas will be put down to Brexit.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
it's odd that there haven't been any Aberdeen based dramas. There's no shortage of local avarice, murderousness, ambition, gross wealth, vulgarity and all the other good stuff.
I hope you don't work for the aberdeen tourism board.
I wonder if the BBC London types get all upset at the thought of broadcasting the broad Doric needed for autthenticity? "We can't possibly be expected to understand the Queen's English as pronounced by the Aberdonians!"
Rather sad really - 'Johnnie Gibb of Gushetneuk' is one of my very favourite novels.
Not the catchiest of titles, but from the looks of it seems quite interesting. Interestingly, I did recently read The Redemption of Alexander Seaton, which is set in 1620s Banff, though it's much lighter affair from the looks of it.
A histortical novel of the Disruption of the Kirk in 1843. Also a comedy of rustic society. Do sample it first before buying as some people can never get their ear in for the Doric conversation.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
There'll be a deal. It just has to go to the stroke of midnight and beyond - with leaks of great late drama and conflicts - so that Muscles and Manu are perceived by their publics to have battled to the death for their respective nations. This is not cynicism from me - I hate cynicism - it's simply the clear and obvious reality. We will not be moving to WTO terms and playing fast and loose with the Irish border. Only a total Brexit headbanger PM such as John "hey you get off of our trout" Redwood would even contemplate such utter madness.
No, Philip, the deal is coming. So get the coffee on and get ready for a typefest ...
Yes I hope and expect the EU should concede and recognise our cards and give us the Canada style FTA we have been asking for.
There's no guarantees of it though.
You'll be able to call it a "Canada style" deal, don't worry.
I've put my cards on the table. If the UK can control it's own laws then it is Canada style.
If we can't, if we are eg under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, then we are not.
Standard FTA style ISDS dispute resolution would be Canada style.
We should get specific now so as to prevent (you) cheating later. We need a specific to act as the litmus. Here's a suggestion. The deal must allow us to slash Corporation Tax to the bone. Or even abolish it. Not that we will, of course, a right wing Tory government would never do that, but it must not prohibited by the EU under LPF.
If this gets a tick it's proper Brexit. Otherwise it's BINO.
We go with that as our test?
Yes. Precisely. Unless there's a global Treaty I'm unaware of already forbidding that then that is a good example.
If we can't control our taxes then that is not OK for me. If the Chancellor thought that abolishing Corporation Tax would see companies relocate their HQs to the UK, so we'd get more income tax, national insurance, stamp duty etc etc and we could eventually balance the budget thanks to that then the Chancellor should be free to do that.
It should none of the EUs business what our tax rates are.
However, I'd have thought that it won't be as simple as that. More likely to be like the NI protocol; in theory the NI assembly can repudiate it, but in reality it would take the EU being conquered by intergalactic lizards for that to ever happen.
So what I'd expect is something where Boris can point to the freedom buttons on the front of the box, and the EU are reassured that the buttons are either connected to nothing or to self-destruct systems.
It's all moot anyway. Deal or not, nobody seriously thinks that the UK has sufficient border systems to run a post EEA trade policy in (checks Advent calendar) less than four weeks time.
Put your efforts into something more constructive.
He does have a point on No Deal though, Brexit to be viable longer term needs a Deal, whether Canada style or Norway style or whatever, no trade deal at all will embolden Remainers in that it will leave Brexit support confined to the diehards, there would almost certainly be a big majority in the polls for returning to the EU next year if the only alternative Brexiteers can produce is No Deal with our largest export destination by January
The remarkable thing is how long it has taken for you to work this out.
Or perhaps that is simply the new line being pushed from No10 ?
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
That’s an egregious misuse of population statistics, though. If most of your population is concentrated into two large cities and a densely populated suburban strip connecting the two, how can it possibly make any difference whether or not you average in a sparsely populated wilderness just because it is adjacent and under the same jurisdiction?
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
Aberdeen is its own place for sure, though outbreaks of Scandinavian sensibilities are entirely accidental. Hadn't thought about it but you're right, it's odd that there haven't been any Aberdeen based dramas. There's no shortage of local avarice, murderousness, ambition, gross wealth, vulgarity and all the other good stuff. Trump thought it a suitable setting for his grossness for Gawd's sake.
Definite gap in the market there. Perhaps something centred around the Oil rush in the 60s and 70s. Dallas is what will probably spring to most minds but I'm more thinking of this nordic one which I watched and enjoyed (a lot) this year.
‘Local Hero’ comes to mind. Admittedly, it was made a long time ago.
And if it doesn't have to be C21 muuurder, and one is allowed to go out amongst the bothie loons and their quines in the hinterland, ther eis always Sunset Song
Forgot about that one. And I adore Terence Davies - though it has some moments of stunning beauty (as all his films do), I think it’s not altogether one of his best.
Terence Davies ... The Trilogy, Distant Voice, Still Lives, and The Long Day Closes are magnificent, but I find the more recent output largely unwatcheable.
I really like Terence Davies for who he is. It is a remarkable story to leave school at 16, and spend many years as a shipping clerk, and become a film director so late in life. It is a hymn to the latent potential in everyone.
I agree with you about the early Liverpool films, and I was, I have to admit, very disappointed by A Quiet Passion, but I think Deep Blue Sea to be simply magnificent. It’s utterly flawless - a film about the long-term traumatic effects of the Second World War on its three central characters. One of the very best British films - if not the best - of this century.
Who but Terence Davies would use the second movement of the Barber Violin Concerto in its entirety in such a breathtaking way?
Put your efforts into something more constructive.
there would almost certainly be a big majority in the polls for returning to the EU next year if the only alternative Brexiteers can produce is No Deal with our largest export destination by January
Doubt it. If there is a serious mess there will be plenty of blame to spread around "Why are the French imposing checks when we're not, why are we queuing with "Others" when EU visitors use our e-gates at passport control (that won't last long) and so forth. If there's a mess it will be on both sides of the channel.
Over 60% of voters think a No Deal Brexit would be bad for Britain according to a poll last month, only 37% think it would be a good outcome. Even if every No Deal Brexit supporter voted Tory in 2024 then the Tory voteshare would still be 6% down on 2019 and the Tories would almost certainly lose power
If we went to No Deal I would expect Labour to have a 5 to 10% poll lead by the Spring
I imagine sometime this week-end we'll get an update on Leave-Remain sentiment?. The Office for Budget responsibility finding of 300,000 expected job losses has received a lot of publicity.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
There'll be a deal. It just has to go to the stroke of midnight and beyond - with leaks of great late drama and conflicts - so that Muscles and Manu are perceived by their publics to have battled to the death for their respective nations. This is not cynicism from me - I hate cynicism - it's simply the clear and obvious reality. We will not be moving to WTO terms and playing fast and loose with the Irish border. Only a total Brexit headbanger PM such as John "hey you get off of our trout" Redwood would even contemplate such utter madness.
No, Philip, the deal is coming. So get the coffee on and get ready for a typefest ...
Yes I hope and expect the EU should concede and recognise our cards and give us the Canada style FTA we have been asking for.
There's no guarantees of it though.
You'll be able to call it a "Canada style" deal, don't worry.
I've put my cards on the table. If the UK can control it's own laws then it is Canada style.
If we can't, if we are eg under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, then we are not.
Standard FTA style ISDS dispute resolution would be Canada style.
We should get specific now so as to prevent (you) cheating later. We need a specific to act as the litmus. Here's a suggestion. The deal must allow us to slash Corporation Tax to the bone. Or even abolish it. Not that we will, of course, a right wing Tory government would never do that, but it must not prohibited by the EU under LPF.
If this gets a tick it's proper Brexit. Otherwise it's BINO.
We go with that as our test?
Yes. Precisely. Unless there's a global Treaty I'm unaware of already forbidding that then that is a good example.
If we can't control our taxes then that is not OK for me. If the Chancellor thought that abolishing Corporation Tax would see companies relocate their HQs to the UK, so we'd get more income tax, national insurance, stamp duty etc etc and we could eventually balance the budget thanks to that then the Chancellor should be free to do that.
It should none of the EUs business what our tax rates are.
However, I'd have thought that it won't be as simple as that. More likely to be like the NI protocol; in theory the NI assembly can repudiate it, but in reality it would take the EU being conquered by intergalactic lizards for that to ever happen.
So what I'd expect is something where Boris can point to the freedom buttons on the front of the box, and the EU are reassured that the buttons are either connected to nothing or to self-destruct systems.
It's all moot anyway. Deal or not, nobody seriously thinks that the UK has sufficient border systems to run a post EEA trade policy in (checks Advent calendar) less than four weeks time.
But we don't need to be ready in less than four weeks time. That's what gets forgotten about.
If we have the option to diverge but it's connected to a form of self destruct like you proposed then the UK can just get ready at a time that suits us and press the button at a time that suits us. We would have the control.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
Aberdeen is its own place for sure, though outbreaks of Scandinavian sensibilities are entirely accidental. Hadn't thought about it but you're right, it's odd that there haven't been any Aberdeen based dramas. There's no shortage of local avarice, murderousness, ambition, gross wealth, vulgarity and all the other good stuff. Trump thought it a suitable setting for his grossness for Gawd's sake.
Definite gap in the market there. Perhaps something centred around the Oil rush in the 60s and 70s. Dallas is what will probably spring to most minds but I'm more thinking of this nordic one which I watched and enjoyed (a lot) this year.
‘Local Hero’ comes to mind. Admittedly, it was made a long time ago.
And if it doesn't have to be C21 muuurder, and one is allowed to go out amongst the bothie loons and their quines in the hinterland, ther eis always Sunset Song
Forgot about that one. And I adore Terence Davies - though it has some moments of stunning beauty (as all his films do), I think it’s not altogether one of his best.
Terence Davies ... The Trilogy, Distant Voice, Still Lives, and The Long Day Closes are magnificent, but I find the more recent output largely unwatcheable.
I really like Terence Davies for who he is. It is a remarkable story to leave school at 16, and spend many years as a shipping clerk, and become a film director so late in life. It is a hymn to the latent potential in everyone.
Just to add that Davies’ story is all the more remarkable for the fact that he was the tenth child of a psychotically violent rag and bone man. It’s hard to think of a less promising background for someone who is a true genius of cinema.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
Yes I think MalcomG is right.
I think Sturgeon has been especially good at communicating the terrifying & sombre responsibility of politicians who have to take life-costing public policy decisions from a position of ignorance (we still know little about the disease). I don't doubt that Sturgeon bitterly regrets the loss of every life: every Scottish life, every British life, every life.
(Boris' flippancy and jokiness means he has been especially bad at this).
Sturgeon however has made mistakes -- she has made nearly as many as Boris. She just hadn't paid for them in the polls (much like Drakeford, yet).
It will be interesting -- once this is all over -- to look to see if there is any statistically significant difference between Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic. My guess is there may be, though it does need a proper analysis.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
We should remember that all the countries in Western Europe bar Germany & Norway have done pretty darned badly. We are arguing about the degree of badness. It is especially shaming because the UK is scientifically -- erm -- world beating. We should have done way, way better.
That’s an egregious misuse of population statistics, though. If most of your population is concentrated into two large cities and a densely populated suburban strip connecting the two, how can it possibly make any difference whether or not you average in a sparsely populated wilderness just because it is adjacent and under the same jurisdiction?
I am well aware of that -- that is why it says "admittedly crude" in my post.
You want to compare like with like, metropolitan district with metropolitan district, etc.
Maybe we can persuade Malmesbury to make those statistics for us ?
Kinabalu do you accept that as a definitive Canada style too? To prevent (you) cheating later? Plus it's an example you chose.
No, I'm getting cold feet. I did no research on it, just pumped it out there. Not good enough. I'll do a better one.
Backsliding already?
Certainly not. This is my idea, remember, coming up with a specific litmus test, and now that you have bought into it, which is great btw, it suddenly becomes a matter of great importance. To be treated seriously, I mean, not casually tossed out as that trial one was.
Leaving without any deal at all is leaving the WTO too. North Korea style trade.
The WTO is itself a deal. It is essentially a fallback deal that we already have, a parachute or safety net so to speak.
An alternative name I like instead of Australia style trade is World Trade deal.
An Albania-style deal would be a good label for what Redwood and some of the Faragists have in mind, I think, although ofcourse in reality Albania has better trading relationships than this, and is trying to join the EU, rather than leave it.
When you consider how socially distanced the US is versus the UK that's not really true.
The US has a population density of 36/km^2 and has negligible public transport as a national percentage of how people commute.
Population density is an incredibly misleading stat. You are much better looking at the percentage of the population living in an urban area, which quite often comes out around 80% in advanced economies even when the population density can be an order of magnitude different between them.
Not necessarily. When your country is largely socially distanced homes where almost everyone loves in a detached house with a driveway and cars, drives everywhere and even shops etc are massive and open spaces ... Versus another country where many people are packed like sardines into terraced houses, with tiny bustling shops and public transport ... Then it is very relevant.
Besides a couple of high profile cities like San Francisco and New York most of America lives far more naturally socially distanced than most of the UK does.
Sure there are still differences between countries, but using population density for comparison is almost always misleading. Most people in low population density advanced economies do not live out in the sticks as their numbers might imply, they live in towns and cities which are not too disimilar from other countries with similar economies. You should start from the urban population, and then make adjustments, but do not include thousands and thousands of square miles of tundra with not a soul to be seen.
Sorry but you're just wrong. Go to a typical US town or city, the median household and it would be a world of difference from the same in the UK.
The median, typical household in the USA lives much more socially distanced naturally than in the UK. Americans who come to the UK can be very shocked how tiny our homes, roads and shops are. Even cars and parking spaces are tiny here compared to across the Atlantic.
Our parking spaces haven't begun to acknowledge that cars are 15% wider than they were 30 years ago.
Of course, if a Corbyn government was repealing the FTPA, the Tory media would be screaming about prioritising obscure constitutional matters in the first year of a Parliament, when hundreds are dying from COVID daily.
The current incumbents of Downing Street are not alone. Nippy sees the Pandemic as an aligning star to get Scottish Independence over the line.
Bollox, the total opposite in fact.
For the moment, let's recall population density is an important factor in the transmission. Scotland has the lowest population density of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland -- its population density is much lower than even Wales, let alone England. On those (admittedly crude) grounds alone, I'd expect Scotland to do quite a bit better than England.
I think the fairest assessment is none of the UK's administrations have covered themselves in glory - though in the Channel Islands there is a very clear difference in approach and outcomes.
That's a great map. Look how far North the city of Aberdeen is. The place must be on average at least 6 or 7 degrees colder than London and have endless light in summer and darkness in winter. Must be quite atmospheric and different up there. Almost Scandinavian. On the coast too. I'm surprised it hasn't been - unless it has and I've missed it - the location for a drama series.
Aberdeen is its own place for sure, though outbreaks of Scandinavian sensibilities are entirely accidental. Hadn't thought about it but you're right, it's odd that there haven't been any Aberdeen based dramas. There's no shortage of local avarice, murderousness, ambition, gross wealth, vulgarity and all the other good stuff. Trump thought it a suitable setting for his grossness for Gawd's sake.
Definite gap in the market there. Perhaps something centred around the Oil rush in the 60s and 70s. Dallas is what will probably spring to most minds but I'm more thinking of this nordic one which I watched and enjoyed (a lot) this year.
‘Local Hero’ comes to mind. Admittedly, it was made a long time ago.
And if it doesn't have to be C21 muuurder, and one is allowed to go out amongst the bothie loons and their quines in the hinterland, ther eis always Sunset Song
Forgot about that one. And I adore Terence Davies - though it has some moments of stunning beauty (as all his films do), I think it’s not altogether one of his best.
Terence Davies ... The Trilogy, Distant Voice, Still Lives, and The Long Day Closes are magnificent, but I find the more recent output largely unwatcheable.
I really like Terence Davies for who he is. It is a remarkable story to leave school at 16, and spend many years as a shipping clerk, and become a film director so late in life. It is a hymn to the latent potential in everyone.
Just to add that Davies’ story is all the more remarkable for the fact that he was the tenth child of a psychotically violent rag and bone man. It’s hard to think of a less promising background for someone who is a true genius of cinema.
Agreed. It is an wonderful story of triumph over adversity.
The only story I like more is that of Alfred Wallis ... who was 67 when he start to paint because he was lonely after his wife's death.
The work for which is he now remembered he began at 67 .... to provide him with consolation against loneliness in his old age.
(I will give The Deep Blue Sea another look, though I have an antipathy to Rattigan).
When you consider how socially distanced the US is versus the UK that's not really true.
The US has a population density of 36/km^2 and has negligible public transport as a national percentage of how people commute.
Population density is an incredibly misleading stat. You are much better looking at the percentage of the population living in an urban area, which quite often comes out around 80% in advanced economies even when the population density can be an order of magnitude different between them.
Not necessarily. When your country is largely socially distanced homes where almost everyone loves in a detached house with a driveway and cars, drives everywhere and even shops etc are massive and open spaces ... Versus another country where many people are packed like sardines into terraced houses, with tiny bustling shops and public transport ... Then it is very relevant.
Besides a couple of high profile cities like San Francisco and New York most of America lives far more naturally socially distanced than most of the UK does.
Sure there are still differences between countries, but using population density for comparison is almost always misleading. Most people in low population density advanced economies do not live out in the sticks as their numbers might imply, they live in towns and cities which are not too disimilar from other countries with similar economies. You should start from the urban population, and then make adjustments, but do not include thousands and thousands of square miles of tundra with not a soul to be seen.
Sorry but you're just wrong. Go to a typical US town or city, the median household and it would be a world of difference from the same in the UK.
The median, typical household in the USA lives much more socially distanced naturally than in the UK. Americans who come to the UK can be very shocked how tiny our homes, roads and shops are. Even cars and parking spaces are tiny here compared to across the Atlantic.
True. The ranks of the homeless sleeping rough a block or two back from Main Street aren’t so distanced, though.
When you consider how socially distanced the US is versus the UK that's not really true.
The US has a population density of 36/km^2 and has negligible public transport as a national percentage of how people commute.
Population density is an incredibly misleading stat. You are much better looking at the percentage of the population living in an urban area, which quite often comes out around 80% in advanced economies even when the population density can be an order of magnitude different between them.
Not necessarily. When your country is largely socially distanced homes where almost everyone loves in a detached house with a driveway and cars, drives everywhere and even shops etc are massive and open spaces ... Versus another country where many people are packed like sardines into terraced houses, with tiny bustling shops and public transport ... Then it is very relevant.
Besides a couple of high profile cities like San Francisco and New York most of America lives far more naturally socially distanced than most of the UK does.
Sure there are still differences between countries, but using population density for comparison is almost always misleading. Most people in low population density advanced economies do not live out in the sticks as their numbers might imply, they live in towns and cities which are not too disimilar from other countries with similar economies. You should start from the urban population, and then make adjustments, but do not include thousands and thousands of square miles of tundra with not a soul to be seen.
Sorry but you're just wrong. Go to a typical US town or city, the median household and it would be a world of difference from the same in the UK.
The median, typical household in the USA lives much more socially distanced naturally than in the UK. Americans who come to the UK can be very shocked how tiny our homes, roads and shops are. Even cars and parking spaces are tiny here compared to across the Atlantic.
I know, but the point I'm making is that the raw population density is still misleading. Those differences are meaningful, but they are still dwarfed by the error you get from looking at population density. Canada is the canonical example of this. Canada's population density is about 4 people per km^2, but most of the country is completely empty, and the vast majority of Canadians live in towns and cities not too dissimilar from towns and cities elsewhere. You need to start with that urban population and then adjust the numbers, not start with the population density of the country as a whole.
Leaving without any deal at all is leaving the WTO too. North Korea style trade.
The WTO is itself a deal. It is essentially a fallback deal that we already have, a parachute or safety net so to speak.
An alternative name I like instead of Australia style trade is World Trade deal.
You have polished that turd to such an extent it is now gleaming like a gemstone.
But that's the point of Brexit. It doesn't matter so much what deal we get, it is what we do with it that will determine if we are successful or not going forwards.
A turd can be turned into fertiliser, can lead to green sprouts and future growth.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
There'll be a deal. It just has to go to the stroke of midnight and beyond - with leaks of great late drama and conflicts - so that Muscles and Manu are perceived by their publics to have battled to the death for their respective nations. This is not cynicism from me - I hate cynicism - it's simply the clear and obvious reality. We will not be moving to WTO terms and playing fast and loose with the Irish border. Only a total Brexit headbanger PM such as John "hey you get off of our trout" Redwood would even contemplate such utter madness.
No, Philip, the deal is coming. So get the coffee on and get ready for a typefest ...
Yes I hope and expect the EU should concede and recognise our cards and give us the Canada style FTA we have been asking for.
There's no guarantees of it though.
You'll be able to call it a "Canada style" deal, don't worry.
I've put my cards on the table. If the UK can control it's own laws then it is Canada style.
If we can't, if we are eg under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, then we are not.
Standard FTA style ISDS dispute resolution would be Canada style.
We should get specific now so as to prevent (you) cheating later. We need a specific to act as the litmus. Here's a suggestion. The deal must allow us to slash Corporation Tax to the bone. Or even abolish it. Not that we will, of course, a right wing Tory government would never do that, but it must not prohibited by the EU under LPF.
If this gets a tick it's proper Brexit. Otherwise it's BINO.
We go with that as our test?
Yes. Precisely. Unless there's a global Treaty I'm unaware of already forbidding that then that is a good example.
If we can't control our taxes then that is not OK for me. If the Chancellor thought that abolishing Corporation Tax would see companies relocate their HQs to the UK, so we'd get more income tax, national insurance, stamp duty etc etc and we could eventually balance the budget thanks to that then the Chancellor should be free to do that.
It should none of the EUs business what our tax rates are.
However, I'd have thought that it won't be as simple as that. More likely to be like the NI protocol; in theory the NI assembly can repudiate it, but in reality it would take the EU being conquered by intergalactic lizards for that to ever happen.
So what I'd expect is something where Boris can point to the freedom buttons on the front of the box, and the EU are reassured that the buttons are either connected to nothing or to self-destruct systems.
It's all moot anyway. Deal or not, nobody seriously thinks that the UK has sufficient border systems to run a post EEA trade policy in (checks Advent calendar) less than four weeks time.
But we don't need to be ready in less than four weeks time. That's what gets forgotten about.
If we have the option to diverge but it's connected to a form of self destruct like you proposed then the UK can just get ready at a time that suits us and press the button at a time that suits us. We would have the control.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
You’d have thought the EU would be familiar by now, with the concept of an insurance policy against a failure to make a deal?
It is a backstop. But this backstop is in conflict with the other backstop. I think this is the EU's problem with it. Still, all a matter of negotiation at the end of the day.
Of course it’s a backstop, and deals make backstops go away. I still think there’s just about a landing point for a deal based on trade, but I’m worried that Macron might be making it impossible with his belligerent attitude.
We've heard this - Macron threatens to veto something to do with Brexit - so many times. I'm certain it's PR for a domestic audience. Ditto with Johnson.
Well precisely.
Macron can posture all he wants but deep down he knows we hold the Aces so whether he wants to eliminate his fishermen to say he was tough with Les Rosbifs is what we are waiting to find out.
He should blink but politics means he may not.
It's a great triumph for the World's Best Country to have manouevred Macron into a position where he is going to commit national suicide while we'll in the comfortable position of looking on and laughing.
When you consider how socially distanced the US is versus the UK that's not really true.
The US has a population density of 36/km^2 and has negligible public transport as a national percentage of how people commute.
Population density is an incredibly misleading stat. You are much better looking at the percentage of the population living in an urban area, which quite often comes out around 80% in advanced economies even when the population density can be an order of magnitude different between them.
Not necessarily. When your country is largely socially distanced homes where almost everyone loves in a detached house with a driveway and cars, drives everywhere and even shops etc are massive and open spaces ... Versus another country where many people are packed like sardines into terraced houses, with tiny bustling shops and public transport ... Then it is very relevant.
Besides a couple of high profile cities like San Francisco and New York most of America lives far more naturally socially distanced than most of the UK does.
Sure there are still differences between countries, but using population density for comparison is almost always misleading. Most people in low population density advanced economies do not live out in the sticks as their numbers might imply, they live in towns and cities which are not too disimilar from other countries with similar economies. You should start from the urban population, and then make adjustments, but do not include thousands and thousands of square miles of tundra with not a soul to be seen.
Sorry but you're just wrong. Go to a typical US town or city, the median household and it would be a world of difference from the same in the UK.
The median, typical household in the USA lives much more socially distanced naturally than in the UK. Americans who come to the UK can be very shocked how tiny our homes, roads and shops are. Even cars and parking spaces are tiny here compared to across the Atlantic.
I know, but the point I'm making is that the raw population density is still misleading. Those differences are meaningful, but they are still dwarfed by the error you get from looking at population density. Canada is the canonical example of this. Canada's population density is about 4 people per km^2, but most of the country is completely empty, and the vast majority of Canadians live in towns and cities not too dissimilar from towns and cities elsewhere. You need to start with that urban population and then adjust the numbers, not start with the population density of the country as a whole.
Totally agree.
This 9 months of wibble about population density has been doing my head in.
When you consider how socially distanced the US is versus the UK that's not really true.
The US has a population density of 36/km^2 and has negligible public transport as a national percentage of how people commute.
Population density is an incredibly misleading stat. You are much better looking at the percentage of the population living in an urban area, which quite often comes out around 80% in advanced economies even when the population density can be an order of magnitude different between them.
Not necessarily. When your country is largely socially distanced homes where almost everyone loves in a detached house with a driveway and cars, drives everywhere and even shops etc are massive and open spaces ... Versus another country where many people are packed like sardines into terraced houses, with tiny bustling shops and public transport ... Then it is very relevant.
Besides a couple of high profile cities like San Francisco and New York most of America lives far more naturally socially distanced than most of the UK does.
Sure there are still differences between countries, but using population density for comparison is almost always misleading. Most people in low population density advanced economies do not live out in the sticks as their numbers might imply, they live in towns and cities which are not too disimilar from other countries with similar economies. You should start from the urban population, and then make adjustments, but do not include thousands and thousands of square miles of tundra with not a soul to be seen.
Sorry but you're just wrong. Go to a typical US town or city, the median household and it would be a world of difference from the same in the UK.
The median, typical household in the USA lives much more socially distanced naturally than in the UK. Americans who come to the UK can be very shocked how tiny our homes, roads and shops are. Even cars and parking spaces are tiny here compared to across the Atlantic.
I know, but the point I'm making is that the raw population density is still misleading. Those differences are meaningful, but they are still dwarfed by the error you get from looking at population density. Canada is the canonical example of this. Canada's population density is about 4 people per km^2, but most of the country is completely empty, and the vast majority of Canadians live in towns and cities not too dissimilar from towns and cities elsewhere. You need to start with that urban population and then adjust the numbers, not start with the population density of the country as a whole.
My in-laws live in Canada in the foothills of the Rockies so I can relate to this. Their tiny town, is 2 hour drive from the nearest town and 4 hours drive from the nearest city. When my father in law picks us up from the airport after leaving Edmonton the satnav says "drive 400 km then turn left".
But the cities and towns are nothing like the cities and towns here. They are massive sprawling places that are completely alien to the UK. Because they can afford to be because they're not constrained artificially, growing into another town or city.
They are massively socially distanced as a result. Plus it makes it easier to keep a virus in one town or city whereas in the UK Liverpool and Manchester for instance are contiguous with each other and towns in-between like Warrington, Wigan, Leigh and Widnes. They are realistically one single united Metropolis in contrast.
Rather presuming the outcome there isn't he? I'd have switched to remain in a second referendum, but victory would hardly have been assured.
I still think a second referendum on the same question could have been 60/40. Winchester ‘97 being the history of asking the voters the same question twice.
Those who wanted to remain in the EU needed to find a way to put the deal to a referendum, but the EU didn’t want to play ball and insisted on working through the A50 rules to the letter.
Correct. Should always be precise. Fishing quotas is a win. Also how you allocate those quotas is not a win. And fishing quotas don't benefit inshore fishing or fish production. Nevertheless it is a win, however small, and just about the only one. The UK should concede on LPF and governance and maximise their fisheries "win"
Without a win in fish it will be no deal sadly
Given the whole thing is a nonsense anyway, I think that's OK. But the UK will need to concede on LPF and governance and drop the treaty breaches.
If the treaty breaches are in the Internal Market bill on Monday as promised, then it is hard to not see the end of negotiations. Such a breach of trust and law makes an agreement untenable.
That's why the negotiations are this weekend though. You're putting the cart before the horse
If the negotiations reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill international law breaches become moot and can be dropped.
If the negotiations fail to reach a deal then the Internal Market Bill is entirely necessary so the amendments need to be put back in.
You’d have thought the EU would be familiar by now, with the concept of an insurance policy against a failure to make a deal?
It is a backstop. But this backstop is in conflict with the other backstop. I think this is the EU's problem with it. Still, all a matter of negotiation at the end of the day.
Of course it’s a backstop, and deals make backstops go away. I still think there’s just about a landing point for a deal based on trade, but I’m worried that Macron might be making it impossible with his belligerent attitude.
We've heard this - Macron threatens to veto something to do with Brexit - so many times. I'm certain it's PR for a domestic audience. Ditto with Johnson.
Well precisely.
Macron can posture all he wants but deep down he knows we hold the Aces so whether he wants to eliminate his fishermen to say he was tough with Les Rosbifs is what we are waiting to find out.
He should blink but politics means he may not.
It's a great triumph for the World's Best Country to have manouevred Macron into a position where he is going to commit national suicide while we'll in the comfortable position of looking on and laughing.
He's mostly harmless.
We'll be able to say so long and thanks for all the fish.
Well, Brexit has been an exercise in goalpost moving by the Leave ultras ever since the referendum result. This is just the logical end point of that process. Rejoice peasants, as your glorious leaders decide to define WTO terms as a “deal with the EU”.
When you consider how socially distanced the US is versus the UK that's not really true.
The US has a population density of 36/km^2 and has negligible public transport as a national percentage of how people commute.
Population density is an incredibly misleading stat. You are much better looking at the percentage of the population living in an urban area, which quite often comes out around 80% in advanced economies even when the population density can be an order of magnitude different between them.
Not necessarily. When your country is largely socially distanced homes where almost everyone loves in a detached house with a driveway and cars, drives everywhere and even shops etc are massive and open spaces ... Versus another country where many people are packed like sardines into terraced houses, with tiny bustling shops and public transport ... Then it is very relevant.
Besides a couple of high profile cities like San Francisco and New York most of America lives far more naturally socially distanced than most of the UK does.
Sure there are still differences between countries, but using population density for comparison is almost always misleading. Most people in low population density advanced economies do not live out in the sticks as their numbers might imply, they live in towns and cities which are not too disimilar from other countries with similar economies. You should start from the urban population, and then make adjustments, but do not include thousands and thousands of square miles of tundra with not a soul to be seen.
Sorry but you're just wrong. Go to a typical US town or city, the median household and it would be a world of difference from the same in the UK.
The median, typical household in the USA lives much more socially distanced naturally than in the UK. Americans who come to the UK can be very shocked how tiny our homes, roads and shops are. Even cars and parking spaces are tiny here compared to across the Atlantic.
I know, but the point I'm making is that the raw population density is still misleading. Those differences are meaningful, but they are still dwarfed by the error you get from looking at population density. Canada is the canonical example of this. Canada's population density is about 4 people per km^2, but most of the country is completely empty, and the vast majority of Canadians live in towns and cities not too dissimilar from towns and cities elsewhere. You need to start with that urban population and then adjust the numbers, not start with the population density of the country as a whole.
I think your point about excess deaths is very good. The present statistics on death are hugely influenced by what different countries define as a "COVID death".
Given this gross distortion in the data -- which may be the main thing actually measured in the Tables -- then what further corrections make any sense at this point ?
My answer is probably none -- just look at the population density, or age demographics, and make a rough allowance.
Once we have reliable figures for the excess deaths for different countries, then it will be interesting to do exactly what you say -- especially from the point of view of understanding which policies are effective.
My in-laws live in Canada in the foothills of the Rockies so I can relate to this. Their tiny town, is 2 hour drive from the nearest town and 4 hours drive from the nearest city. When my father in law picks us up from the airport after leaving Edmonton the satnav says "drive 400 km then turn left".
But the cities and towns are nothing like the cities and towns here. They are massive sprawling places that are completely alien to the UK. Because they can afford to be because they're not constrained artificially, growing into another town or city.
They are massively socially distanced as a result. Plus it makes it easier to keep a virus in one town or city whereas in the UK Liverpool and Manchester for instance are contiguous with each other and towns in-between like Warrington, Wigan, Leigh and Widnes. They are realistically one single united Metropolis in contrast.
Sure I get all that. It it still misleading to compare population density when you are talking about COVID-19. Start with the urban population, and then figure out the population density of urban areas to make comparisons if you want. But do not simply use population density, it's extremely misleading, far more so than the differences that exist between urban areas in different countries. e.g. UK population density is 275 per km^2 against 4 per km^2 for Canada. That's almost two orders of magnitude, but Greater London and the Greater Toronto Area are only about a factor of 5 different.
Leaving without any deal at all is leaving the WTO too. North Korea style trade.
The WTO is itself a deal. It is essentially a fallback deal that we already have, a parachute or safety net so to speak.
An alternative name I like instead of Australia style trade is World Trade deal.
You have polished that turd to such an extent it is now gleaming like a gemstone.
But that's the point of Brexit. It doesn't matter so much what deal we get, it is what we do with it that will determine if we are successful or not going forwards.
A turd can be turned into fertiliser, can lead to green sprouts and future growth.
Comments
“Southern California faces stay-at-home order by Sunday if ICU bed shortage does not improve”
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-04/state-covid-19-cases-and-hospitalizations-soar-as-shutdown-nears
But, I think you can reasonably compare like with like e.g., the Dakotas to across-the-border Manitoba. That is not a very favourable comparison for the US.
Maybe it would be interesting to look at just big cities, because then the population density is alway high and variation in this factor may not be too important.
So, an interesting question is how is London doing compared to NYC or LA?
(I'm sure if you do this globally, the big cities that did best are all in East Asia.)
Jersey - much looser border control, lower levels of fines and shorter quarantine. The government decided to prioritise "the economy". They've now got untracked community transmission, with the UK equivalent of 47,000 new cases identified yesterday, with almost certainly more emerging today and for the next couple of weeks. They decided on Wednesday to close all hospitality until the New Year, from Friday. You get one guess how busy pubs & restaurants were on the following nights. When Guernsey closed its pubs & restaurants at the start of the pandemic the announcement was at lunchtime, effective 6pm that day. Guernsey has also done a much better job, it would appear at communicating - there's a "welcome home" pack for students with very clear, specific advice - for example, don't hug your mum on return, unless the whole family is going into quarantine. Last night's news had clips of Jersey students returning home, hugging right left & centre. They've now got 10 in hospital and 440 active cases, I shudder to think what todays news will be - although they've just restarted weekend reporting (something Guernsey has done throughout).
https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1335200498312380416?s=20
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
The difference is even greater in terms of hospitalised patients - and the fact that Scotland patient numbers peak came almost a month before England is further evidence something is different.
Though (a) that site itself says not to compare as different methods/criteria, and (b) as already pointed out there is population density etc. (But on that last point, so few folk live in sheep country, the Islands, anyway that they don't make much difference I should think.)
Trump should be rotting in prison. Let us all hope we live to see that happen.
Trump's COVID response was like the Jonestown Massacre on a truly national scale.
Besides a couple of high profile cities like San Francisco and New York most of America lives far more naturally socially distanced than most of the UK does.
I don’t even understand the logic unless he actively wants more people to die.
Macron can posture all he wants but deep down he knows we hold the Aces so whether he wants to eliminate his fishermen to say he was tough with Les Rosbifs is what we are waiting to find out.
He should blink but politics means he may not.
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1335200930535501825?s=20
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000hy8w
And I seem to recall that one of Christopher Brookmyre's crime capers featured a villain who was essentially driven to it by his daily commute over the River Don.
You should (or rather shouldn't) try Shetland in winter - much darker even than Aberdeen, and stormier. (But wonderful in June/July.) There is a TV detective series IIRC with Douglas Henshall as a leading actor. Never tried it, but I hardly watch TVG anyway.
New Jersey and New York have a very different population density to Kansas or Alabama.
If we can't, if we are eg under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, then we are not.
Standard FTA style ISDS dispute resolution would be Canada style.
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/748229/movie-map-showing-sunset-songs-north-east-filming-locations-goes-live/
The median, typical household in the USA lives much more socially distanced naturally than in the UK. Americans who come to the UK can be very shocked how tiny our homes, roads and shops are. Even cars and parking spaces are tiny here compared to across the Atlantic.
Rather sad really - 'Johnnie Gibb of Gushetneuk' is one of my very favourite novels.
The median US house size is 2301 square feet.
The UK and US are very different nations.
Chris Rea needs to do a Covid remix: "I'm staying home for Christmas"
Fit the lyric 'I don't want to kill my granny' in there somewhere for good measure.
If this gets a tick it's proper Brexit. Otherwise it's BINO.
We go with that as our test?
I think Hamilton would win, but it would be interesting.
If we can't control our taxes then that is not OK for me. If the Chancellor thought that abolishing Corporation Tax would see companies relocate their HQs to the UK, so we'd get more income tax, national insurance, stamp duty etc etc and we could eventually balance the budget thanks to that then the Chancellor should be free to do that.
It should none of the EUs business what our tax rates are.
I really like Terence Davies for who he is. It is a remarkable story to leave school at 16, and spend many years as a shipping clerk, and become a film director so late in life. It is a hymn to the latent potential in everyone.
Former, true. Latter, a bit deluded.
Johnson has to own it and all who sail in it.
https://electricscotland.com/history/gibb/JGPage001-006Chp01.pdf
So what I'd expect is something where Boris can point to the freedom buttons on the front of the box, and the EU are reassured that the buttons are either connected to nothing or to self-destruct systems.
It's all moot anyway. Deal or not, nobody seriously thinks that the UK has sufficient border systems to run a post EEA trade policy in (checks Advent calendar) less than four weeks time.
Who but Terence Davies would use the second movement of the Barber Violin Concerto in its entirety in such a breathtaking way?
I imagine sometime this week-end we'll get an update on Leave-Remain sentiment?. The Office for Budget responsibility finding of 300,000 expected job losses has received a lot of publicity.
If we have the option to diverge but it's connected to a form of self destruct like you proposed then the UK can just get ready at a time that suits us and press the button at a time that suits us. We would have the control.
Leaving without any deal at all is leaving the WTO too. North Korea style trade.
The WTO is itself a deal. It is essentially a fallback deal that we already have, a parachute or safety net so to speak.
An alternative name I like instead of Australia style trade is World Trade deal.
You want to compare like with like, metropolitan district with metropolitan district, etc.
Maybe we can persuade Malmesbury to make those statistics for us ?
Watch this space.
The only story I like more is that of Alfred Wallis ... who was 67 when he start to paint because he was lonely after his wife's death.
The work for which is he now remembered he began at 67 .... to provide him with consolation against loneliness in his old age.
(I will give The Deep Blue Sea another look, though I have an antipathy to Rattigan).
A turd can be turned into fertiliser, can lead to green sprouts and future growth.
I give up. This stuff (basic FTAs don't eliminate the bureaucracy, they just set the tarrif to smaller or zero) is really simple.
Third practice just about done.
This 9 months of wibble about population density has been doing my head in.
But the cities and towns are nothing like the cities and towns here. They are massive sprawling places that are completely alien to the UK. Because they can afford to be because they're not constrained artificially, growing into another town or city.
They are massively socially distanced as a result. Plus it makes it easier to keep a virus in one town or city whereas in the UK Liverpool and Manchester for instance are contiguous with each other and towns in-between like Warrington, Wigan, Leigh and Widnes. They are realistically one single united Metropolis in contrast.
Those who wanted to remain in the EU needed to find a way to put the deal to a referendum, but the EU didn’t want to play ball and insisted on working through the A50 rules to the letter.
We'll be able to say so long and thanks for all the fish.
But then, I thought they'd win at a canter the first time.
Given this gross distortion in the data -- which may be the main thing actually measured in the Tables -- then what further corrections make any sense at this point ?
My answer is probably none -- just look at the population density, or age demographics, and make a rough allowance.
Once we have reliable figures for the excess deaths for different countries, then it will be interesting to do exactly what you say -- especially from the point of view of understanding which policies are effective.
Still waiting for Ladbrokes to put the markets up...