In property news, how would you fancy living in a million pound archway next to a charming inner London housing estate with trains rumbling overhead every few minutes?
Interesting Guardian article about how the EU is failing to protect the Mediterranean.
Because it confounds the assumptions about the motivations behind Brexit, there has been very little commentary on the very real possibility of the UK adopting far more environmentally positive policies once we're unshackled from the EU's rules and regulations around agriculture etc.
Boris and Gove will prove, I suspect, a lot Greener than many may assume to be the case.
As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.
That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14th
There is no prospect of that, except in the fevered imagination of the Trumpaloopas.
A Republican win would mean at least two years of legislative standstill, if not outright budget sabotage.
It would mean Biden forced to compromise with the GOP, not the Democrats in control of every branch of Federal Government and AOC and Pelosi pushing the agenda leading to Tea Party 2 with bells on and a huge conservative backlash in the 2022 midterms
The Democrats may win control (just) of the Executive and Legislative branches, but they won't win the Judicial - not before the next Presidential anyway.
The Supreme Court is made up of the senior judiciary, not legislators or the executive, though the longer the latter are in power the more they get to appoint the former
In property news, how would you fancy living in a million pound archway next to a charming inner London housing estate with trains rumbling overhead every few minutes?
That is a pretty cool house. Burgess Park is very nice. If the Bakerloo Line extension ever gets built you will be 5 minutes from a tube station too, with direct links to the West End and easy access to the City. It wouldn't suit me (with 3 kids) but I like it. Feels like property rights might be complicated with the railway above, which would put me off.
Stock market: I, Like @IanB2 , have been very bullish about stock markets - which seem to me to be defying gravity.
Having said that, the traditional "Santa Rally" in share prices could bring significant movement on the upside this year, as the timing will chime with vaccines going into arms.
Any views on this?
My worry would be that much of the good news - the vaccine cavalry in sight, and the expectation of a Brexit deal (hence the rising £) - is already baked into the markets. Thus one would think there is mostly downside risk.
In the US, which was at record highs before the vaccine announcements and which is now just over 30,000 in expectation of yet another stimulus package, looks the most vulnerable. Despite our relief at Trump's presumed departure, the tough decisions are going to be stacking up on Biden's desk, and this and he won't be so market-friendly.
In the UK it all depends on the extent of January disruption, and a safety-first approach looks sensible.
The santa rally is usually reliable - originating from the tendency of investors to review their holdings during the holiday period and make new investments along with their new year resolutions - and has become a self fulfilling prophecy as punters pile in at this time of year in anticipation.
I've done pretty well so far from the vaccine boost - the Carnival shares I mentioned buying on here in the summer for just below £10 looked initially like a mistake, but are now rising toward £15, I've nearly doubled my money on Rolls Royce, am up about 50% on Royal Mail, and the other recovery shares I have - WH Smith, Lloyd's Bank, Shell, as well as various ITs like RIT, JMG, Temple Bar, are all doing well.
If there's a Brexit deal I may take an up spread bet on the FTSE in anticipation of Santa but look to close it between Xmas and New Year, rather than hold into the early days of January as usual, as the Jan 1 risk is still there. If there's no Brexit deal I'm not playing this year. I am also inclined to reduce risk by taking a down bet on the DOW while it's above 30,000; an insurance position it is worth sticking with into 2021.
Despite the above the bulk of my holdings are defensive, reflecting both outlook and character, and I'll be mostly sticking with the index linked bonds, gold, and safety-first funds like Troy Trojan, Ruffer and BNY Real Return until my pension arrives in 2022.
I agree with that.
My equities have done well this year, after I went 90% cash in Feb, then reinvested in April once the peak had passed. That is going to be hard to replicate in terms of timing!
I expect a bit more of a rally, but there is misery to come, with many retail and hospitality failures in Q1. I am sceptical of airlines and cruise lines too. They simply don't look cheap to me, and are going to report further losses.
My best performing recovery stocks have been miners (ANTO, RIO and S32), and defensives that I bought at good prices in April (Rentokil, Synth), with my bank stocks fairly neutral (HSBA and STAN), though a few months ago they were substantially down. I have started some profit taking to rebalanced my portfolio.
I am bearish on the American markets, which look rather peaky. Republican Senators are deficit hawks in Dem administrations and deficit deniers in Republican ones. I see some harsh austerity coming in the US.
Thanks IanB and Foxy - though I`ve just noticed a brain-fart in my original post. I said "bullish" where I should have said "bearish" - jeez what a rookie error. I`ve thrashed myself accordingly.
I`ve done well of late on IAG shares (BA). Bought at 96p, sold at £1.60 - within a month.
My portfolio is very cautious overall at the moment. But I do think a Santa rally could be a thing this year. And agree that buying now with a view to selling between Xmas Day and the New Year is the best tactic.
I`ve recently bought Flutter Entertainment shares (BF and PP), as I don`t think the humongous sums taken in the election are factored in. Though I will sell in short term due to concerns about reputational damage due to settlement delays. But DYOR blah blah.
Oh and where were you yesterday during the wet weather bike debate?
Probably out on my bike. Trying to crack 10,000km for 2020.
You did better than me. I sat gazing at the rain and stayed just where I was.
Quick calc hold on.....for the first lockdown I did 15-odd miles a day for seven days a week, and then since then I have done 10-odd miles a day for five days a week so that is what - 15 x 30 x 3 = 1,350 and then 10 x 30 x 6 = 1,800 = 3,150 miles = 5,000 km so I am or will be almost exactly half the man, er cyclist you are. And all on a Highway Apollo and latterly Specialized Globe Sport.
Over, for now, he said. Not over forever, obviously.
I don't think Rejoin will be on any major parties manifesto in 2024, but quite likely for the one after that.
As far as Blair is concerned it's the Euro all over again. He's never been interested in a political argument unless he's thought that he's already won it. Which is why the campaign to convince us to join the Euro sank without a trace.
The only surprising thing is that he's being more honest about it now than he was then.
Pragmatically, he was probably correct then; the Euro argument wasn't winnable at the time, and therefore not worth the expenditure of political capital.
It's the same here. It doesn't matter that this government has set itself a task (making their version of Brexit a success) that would have taxed a leader with the steely determination of Thatcher in her pomp, the backroom dark arts of Wilson at his most cunning, the doggedness of Major, the charm of Blair, the analytics of Brown and the salesmanship and verve of early Cameron all at once. (Add the best things about May, Callaghan and anyone else if you want to.) It doesn't matter that we have a third rate Prime Minister with a fourth rate Cabinet whose only real talents are superficial bonhomie and understanding of gang dynamics.
He's won the right to try to do it his way. Nothing I have seen makes me confident that it will work, but that decision has been taken. And all we can do is hope.
But in the event, perish the thought, that this doesn't work, the Rejoin argument will inevitably be made, and if enough people are convinced by it, it will happen. Not immediately, but not never, either.
The problem is that changing political views takes time and effort. The Eurosceptics didn't shrug their shoulders in 1998 and say that the time wasn't right to win political arguments on the EU. They fought the trench warfare of changing public opinion.
That's why the time was never right for us to join the Euro, but we now find ourselves out of the EU and heading for a thin trade deal at best.
The start of the Euro was the last moment at which is was coherent to argue that the EU was not an attempt to build a Europe wide state. It was a critical moment. That Blair wanted to join and most didn't showed where the fault line lies. It will be fascinating to see whether the Scots want their long term state capital to be London or Brussels. Will they realise that Edinburgh is not on the table if they wish to join the EU?
As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.
That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14th
There is no prospect of that, except in the fevered imagination of the Trumpaloopas.
A Republican win would mean at least two years of legislative standstill, if not outright budget sabotage.
It would mean Biden forced to compromise with the GOP, not the Democrats in control of every branch of Federal Government and AOC and Pelosi pushing the agenda leading to Tea Party 2 with bells on and a huge conservative backlash in the 2022 midterms
There is no compromise with the GOP - did you not follow Obama's presidency at all ? And that was when they were relatively moderate compared to the present incarnation. As has been pointed out to you above, a 50/50 Senate (with a Harris casting vote) would still need the votes of the right of centre Democrats to get any legislation through. The chances of AOC "pushing the agenda" are zero. A Republican majority led by McConnell would block everything, as they did before.
Yes, it's a nonsense - Manchin won't vote for court expansion for instance.
Over, for now, he said. Not over forever, obviously.
I don't think Rejoin will be on any major parties manifesto in 2024, but quite likely for the one after that.
As far as Blair is concerned it's the Euro all over again. He's never been interested in a political argument unless he's thought that he's already won it. Which is why the campaign to convince us to join the Euro sank without a trace.
The only surprising thing is that he's being more honest about it now than he was then.
Pragmatically, he was probably correct then; the Euro argument wasn't winnable at the time, and therefore not worth the expenditure of political capital.
It's the same here. It doesn't matter that this government has set itself a task (making their version of Brexit a success) that would have taxed a leader with the steely determination of Thatcher in her pomp, the backroom dark arts of Wilson at his most cunning, the doggedness of Major, the charm of Blair, the analytics of Brown and the salesmanship and verve of early Cameron all at once. (Add the best things about May, Callaghan and anyone else if you want to.) It doesn't matter that we have a third rate Prime Minister with a fourth rate Cabinet whose only real talents are superficial bonhomie and understanding of gang dynamics.
He's won the right to try to do it his way. Nothing I have seen makes me confident that it will work, but that decision has been taken. And all we can do is hope.
But in the event, perish the thought, that this doesn't work, the Rejoin argument will inevitably be made, and if enough people are convinced by it, it will happen. Not immediately, but not never, either.
The problem is that changing political views takes time and effort. The Eurosceptics didn't shrug their shoulders in 1998 and say that the time wasn't right to win political arguments on the EU. They fought the trench warfare of changing public opinion.
That's why the time was never right for us to join the Euro, but we now find ourselves out of the EU and heading for a thin trade deal at best.
The start of the Euro was the last moment at which is was coherent to argue that the EU was not an attempt to build a Europe wide state. It was a critical moment. That Blair wanted to join and most didn't showed where the fault line lies. It will be fascinating to see whether the Scots want their long term state capital to be London or Brussels. Will they realise that Edinburgh is not on the table if they wish to join the EU?
It's a moveable fault line though. At one time people thought a European customs union would be unachievable without a Europe-wide state.
Over, for now, he said. Not over forever, obviously.
I don't think Rejoin will be on any major parties manifesto in 2024, but quite likely for the one after that.
As far as Blair is concerned it's the Euro all over again. He's never been interested in a political argument unless he's thought that he's already won it. Which is why the campaign to convince us to join the Euro sank without a trace.
The only surprising thing is that he's being more honest about it now than he was then.
Pragmatically, he was probably correct then; the Euro argument wasn't winnable at the time, and therefore not worth the expenditure of political capital.
It's the same here. It doesn't matter that this government has set itself a task (making their version of Brexit a success) that would have taxed a leader with the steely determination of Thatcher in her pomp, the backroom dark arts of Wilson at his most cunning, the doggedness of Major, the charm of Blair, the analytics of Brown and the salesmanship and verve of early Cameron all at once. (Add the best things about May, Callaghan and anyone else if you want to.) It doesn't matter that we have a third rate Prime Minister with a fourth rate Cabinet whose only real talents are superficial bonhomie and understanding of gang dynamics.
He's won the right to try to do it his way. Nothing I have seen makes me confident that it will work, but that decision has been taken. And all we can do is hope.
But in the event, perish the thought, that this doesn't work, the Rejoin argument will inevitably be made, and if enough people are convinced by it, it will happen. Not immediately, but not never, either.
The problem is that changing political views takes time and effort. The Eurosceptics didn't shrug their shoulders in 1998 and say that the time wasn't right to win political arguments on the EU. They fought the trench warfare of changing public opinion.
That's why the time was never right for us to join the Euro, but we now find ourselves out of the EU and heading for a thin trade deal at best.
That's true, though the reality is that the pro-Europe argument needs to spend some time away from the limelight, working on a new script. I'm pretty sure that script exists, and that events over the next few years will make that script important and the audience receptive.
As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.
That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14th
There is no prospect of that, except in the fevered imagination of the Trumpaloopas.
A Republican win would mean at least two years of legislative standstill, if not outright budget sabotage.
It would mean Biden forced to compromise with the GOP, not the Democrats in control of every branch of Federal Government and AOC and Pelosi pushing the agenda leading to Tea Party 2 with bells on and a huge conservative backlash in the 2022 midterms
There is no compromise with the GOP - did you not follow Obama's presidency at all ? And that was when they were relatively moderate compared to the present incarnation. As has been pointed out to you above, a 50/50 Senate (with a Harris casting vote) would still need the votes of the right of centre Democrats to get any legislation through. The chances of AOC "pushing the agenda" are zero. A Republican majority led by McConnell would block everything, as they did before.
Yes, it's a nonsense - Manchin won't vote for court expansion for instance.
If the Democrats win all 3 branches of government the GOP will win a landslide in the 2022 midterms that will make 2010 look like a damp squib, Americans voted to get rid of Trump, narrowly, that was it, they did not vote for any shift left at all and certainly not on cultural matters
No, the passport to the elite is talking the right way and knowing the right people, same as it has always been. That being a racist prick has become sufficiently socially unacceptable that even an OE can't get away with it anymore is surely something to be welcomed.
Poor old Carswell... Charterhouse was clearly insufficient qualification to join the "elite".
Guests at the Brussels 'daddy orgy' where an anti-LGBT politician was caught breaking lockdown rules thought the police who arrived to break up the party were part of the romp, the organiser claims.
David Manzheley said some of the 30 male guests had 'tried to unzip the pants of the policemen because they thought that the raid was part of the orgy' after the event at his Brussels apartment was shut down last Friday.
As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.
That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14th
There is no prospect of that, except in the fevered imagination of the Trumpaloopas.
A Republican win would mean at least two years of legislative standstill, if not outright budget sabotage.
It would mean Biden forced to compromise with the GOP, not the Democrats in control of every branch of Federal Government and AOC and Pelosi pushing the agenda leading to Tea Party 2 with bells on and a huge conservative backlash in the 2022 midterms
There is no compromise with the GOP - did you not follow Obama's presidency at all ? And that was when they were relatively moderate compared to the present incarnation. As has been pointed out to you above, a 50/50 Senate (with a Harris casting vote) would still need the votes of the right of centre Democrats to get any legislation through. The chances of AOC "pushing the agenda" are zero. A Republican majority led by McConnell would block everything, as they did before.
Yes, it's a nonsense - Manchin won't vote for court expansion for instance.
If the Democrats win all 3 branches of government the GOP will win a landslide in the 2022 midterms that will make 2010 look like a damp squib, Americans voted to get rid of Trump, narrowly, that was it, they did not vote for any shift left at all and certainly not on cultural matters
How can you tell what they voted for? It's a FPTP election with Biden versus Trump and they voted for Biden. With an absolute majority.
Anything else and we're guessing or projecting. Would you have any hesitation in saying that Britain voted for an exit to the Single Market? Or for us to leave the EU in January come what may? Or for the triple lock on pensions to continue? Or for a points-based immigration system?
Or would it be fair to say that Britain voted against Corbynism and his vision of socialism, not any of the stuff above?
Thunder snow in Edinburgh region overnight, apparently. The grauniad's story on it quotes* someone with a video on twitter who references the gloriously named (for those with a peurile sense of humour) @penisnow account - "follow @penisnow and keep up to date with all news on snow in penicuik. Use the hashtag #penisnow to help inform others too!" The tweets suggest the name was not chosen unknowingly.
* well, it did - now disappeared. Maybe someone had a cup of coffee and re-read the tweet
As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.
That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14th
There is no prospect of that, except in the fevered imagination of the Trumpaloopas.
A Republican win would mean at least two years of legislative standstill, if not outright budget sabotage.
It would mean Biden forced to compromise with the GOP, not the Democrats in control of every branch of Federal Government and AOC and Pelosi pushing the agenda leading to Tea Party 2 with bells on and a huge conservative backlash in the 2022 midterms
The Democrats may win control (just) of the Executive and Legislative branches, but they won't win the Judicial - not before the next Presidential anyway.
The Supreme Court is made up of the senior judiciary, not legislators or the executive, though the longer the latter are in power the more they get to appoint the former
Yes, but it is widely and I think correctly assumed that judges are politicians in robes, at least to a large extent, who cloak their political views in judicial arguments. That's why senior judicial appointments are so contentious in the United States. And the Republicans have a 6:3 majority in that branch of the government (one of the three) which the Democrats won't overturn before 2024 even if they control the Senate, unless there are an extraordinary number of deaths or retirements amongst the majority.
I refer to my previous comment from a few days ago "I'll believe there's a deal when I actually see it". Too much noise and yes/no/maybes to actually be certain at the minute.
Quick calc hold on.....for the first lockdown I did 15-odd miles a day for seven days a week, and then since then I have done 10-odd miles a day for five days a week so that is what - 15 x 30 x 3 = 1,350 and then 10 x 30 x 6 = 1,800 = 3,150 miles = 5,000 km so I am or will be almost exactly half the man, er cyclist you are. And all on a Highway Apollo and latterly Specialized Globe Sport.
Get a power meter next, you're riding blind without it. You can maximise the training benefit of the rides you're doing by staying at 80-90% of your 20 minute functional threshold power.
I had a massive mountain bike accident early in the year so I didn't race this year. 12-15k is more normal for me.
As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.
That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14th
So what's your call for this? A Dem double will stun and surprise?
Guests at the Brussels 'daddy orgy' where an anti-LGBT politician was caught breaking lockdown rules thought the police who arrived to break up the party were part of the romp, the organiser claims.
David Manzheley said some of the 30 male guests had 'tried to unzip the pants of the policemen because they thought that the raid was part of the orgy' after the event at his Brussels apartment was shut down last Friday.
Trouble is, you can only (assuming its wise) "turn back the boats" in international waters - which doesn't exist in the Straits of Dover. The waters are either French (which we can't enter) or British (in which case the boats are our responsibility). But apart from that...
That's balls. They could do interceptions in British waters, load the refugees into lifeboats, tow them west until the British and French EEZs diverge (say as far as Roscoff) and leave them just outside the French EEZ with only enough fuel to get to France. That's exactly what the RAN did with boats from Indonesia.
Saying it "can't" be done is absolute cobblers. It absolutely could be done but the UK government doesn't have the stomach for it.
I am not commending it as a course of action but to pretend its impossible is just dishonest cowardice. But what else would you expect from tories. That virtue isn't going to signal itself.
So the fact that the Tories might be trying to avoid towing boatloads full of refugees out into the middle of the sea somehow shows the Tories are shits?
I mean don't get me wrong - I am no longer a member of the party but that is some tortuous logic.
Oh and where were you yesterday during the wet weather bike debate?
Talking of wet weather....
I was out for a walk yesterday evening. As is often the case, these days, there were quite a few people walking along by the Thames.
In one portion, the road runs so close and low that it regularly floods at each time. The road is supposed to be cambered to deal with this, but I think there has been settlement. So you get a puddle about 2 inches deep that is a lane wide and a good 20 yards long.
As usual, there was a group of people "road combing" - this is my term for walking in a side by side group, to make sure that no-one can get past, or avoiding getting within 2 meters of said fools. In this case they were taking up the full width of the road - cars are quite infrequent, and besides these people don't care.
When they reached the tidal puddle they carefully compacted their group - just enough to fill the dry part of the road.
At this point in time the local association of Fat Men On Fixie Bikes rolled past. As usual, going at a serious pace, in single file....
Since they knew the road, they went through the puddle instead of stopping.
I was previously unaware of the dynamics of a narrow bike tyre going through a puddle like like. A perfect sheet of water ejected to each side is the result..... multiple times
So each member of the Road Combers got completely drenched multiple times.
No, the passport to the elite is talking the right way and knowing the right people, same as it has always been. That being a racist prick has become sufficiently socially unacceptable that even an OE can't get away with it anymore is surely something to be welcomed.
Poor old Carswell... Charterhouse was clearly insufficient qualification to join the "elite".
It certainly is revealing that so many of those who rant about "the elite" seem to have been "educated" at some of our most expensive private schools. It's either a classic example of projection, pure cynicism, or the resentment of those who expected a place at the top table by default and are enraged to have been displaced by a few more talented outsiders.
Quick calc hold on.....for the first lockdown I did 15-odd miles a day for seven days a week, and then since then I have done 10-odd miles a day for five days a week so that is what - 15 x 30 x 3 = 1,350 and then 10 x 30 x 6 = 1,800 = 3,150 miles = 5,000 km so I am or will be almost exactly half the man, er cyclist you are. And all on a Highway Apollo and latterly Specialized Globe Sport.
Get a power meter next, you're riding blind without it. You can maximise the training benefit of the rides you're doing by staying at 80-90% of your 20 minute functional threshold power.
I had a massive mountain bike accident early in the year so I didn't race this year. 12-15k is more normal for me.
Thanks I will look into it. I also forgot pre Covid I was Boris bike commuting but that was commuting so actually, given that since then the riding has been for pure exercise a power meter makes a lot of sense.
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
It seems to be working in Scotland too. That's how the Tories have gone from "fewer than Pandas" to the clear opposition.
No, the passport to the elite is talking the right way and knowing the right people, same as it has always been. That being a racist prick has become sufficiently socially unacceptable that even an OE can't get away with it anymore is surely something to be welcomed.
Poor old Carswell... Charterhouse was clearly insufficient qualification to join the "elite".
It certainly is revealing that so many of those who rant about "the elite" seem to have been "educated" at some of our most expensive private schools. It's either a classic example of projection, pure cynicism, or the resentment of those who expected a place at the top table by default and are enraged to have been displaced by a few more talented outsiders.
Or perhaps they genuinely question the merits of a system into which they were involuntarily inserted? Like for instance George Orwell seemed to manage?
The "education" is fine, by the way, in many instances. Quote marks not needed.
Thunder snow in Edinburgh region overnight, apparently. The grauniad's story on it quotes* someone with a video on twitter who references the gloriously named (for those with a peurile sense of humour) @penisnow account - "follow @penisnow and keep up to date with all news on snow in penicuik. Use the hashtag #penisnow to help inform others too!" The tweets suggest the name was not chosen unknowingly.
* well, it did - now disappeared. Maybe someone had a cup of coffee and re-read the tweet
The UK Government has instructed businesses to prepare to trade on WTO Terms. It is officially said on the website. The PM gave a speech saying we are getting ready for Australia style trade.
There may be a deal that makes some of those preparations redundant. Or there might not.
Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Every business should be getting prepared for WTO.
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
The other interesting bit is that "Populism" is another convenient bogeyman - as shorthand for "people voting for stuff proper people don't approve of"
If you agree with what Cromwell said at the Putney Debates - just admit it.
Stock market: I, Like @IanB2 , have been very bullish about stock markets - which seem to me to be defying gravity.
Having said that, the traditional "Santa Rally" in share prices could bring significant movement on the upside this year, as the timing will chime with vaccines going into arms.
Any views on this?
My worry would be that much of the good news - the vaccine cavalry in sight, and the expectation of a Brexit deal (hence the rising £) - is already baked into the markets. Thus one would think there is mostly downside risk.
In the US, which was at record highs before the vaccine announcements and which is now just over 30,000 in expectation of yet another stimulus package, looks the most vulnerable. Despite our relief at Trump's presumed departure, the tough decisions are going to be stacking up on Biden's desk, and this and he won't be so market-friendly.
In the UK it all depends on the extent of January disruption, and a safety-first approach looks sensible.
The santa rally is usually reliable - originating from the tendency of investors to review their holdings during the holiday period and make new investments along with their new year resolutions - and has become a self fulfilling prophecy as punters pile in at this time of year in anticipation.
I've done pretty well so far from the vaccine boost - the Carnival shares I mentioned buying on here in the summer for just below £10 looked initially like a mistake, but are now rising toward £15, I've nearly doubled my money on Rolls Royce, am up about 50% on Royal Mail, and the other recovery shares I have - WH Smith, Lloyd's Bank, Shell, as well as various ITs like RIT, JMG, Temple Bar, are all doing well.
If there's a Brexit deal I may take an up spread bet on the FTSE in anticipation of Santa but look to close it between Xmas and New Year, rather than hold into the early days of January as usual, as the Jan 1 risk is still there. If there's no Brexit deal I'm not playing this year. I am also inclined to reduce risk by taking a down bet on the DOW while it's above 30,000; an insurance position it is worth sticking with into 2021.
Despite the above the bulk of my holdings are defensive, reflecting both outlook and character, and I'll be mostly sticking with the index linked bonds, gold, and safety-first funds like Troy Trojan, Ruffer and BNY Real Return until my pension arrives in 2022.
I agree with that.
My equities have done well this year, after I went 90% cash in Feb, then reinvested in April once the peak had passed. That is going to be hard to replicate in terms of timing!
I expect a bit more of a rally, but there is misery to come, with many retail and hospitality failures in Q1. I am sceptical of airlines and cruise lines too. They simply don't look cheap to me, and are going to report further losses.
My best performing recovery stocks have been miners (ANTO, RIO and S32), and defensives that I bought at good prices in April (Rentokil, Synth), with my bank stocks fairly neutral (HSBA and STAN), though a few months ago they were substantially down. I have started some profit taking to rebalanced my portfolio.
I am bearish on the American markets, which look rather peaky. Republican Senators are deficit hawks in Dem administrations and deficit deniers in Republican ones. I see some harsh austerity coming in the US.
Thanks IanB and Foxy - though I`ve just noticed a brain-fart in my original post. I said "bullish" where I should have said "bearish" - jeez what a rookie error. I`ve thrashed myself accordingly.
I`ve done well of late on IAG shares (BA). Bought at 96p, sold at £1.60 - within a month.
My portfolio is very cautious overall at the moment. But I do think a Santa rally could be a thing this year. And agree that buying now with a view to selling between Xmas Day and the New Year is the best tactic.
I`ve recently bought Flutter Entertainment shares (BF and PP), as I don`t think the humongous sums taken in the election are factored in. Though I will sell in short term due to concerns about reputational damage due to settlement delays. But DYOR blah blah.
Its great to hear about different portfolios and how people approach them. Re Flutter, politics is <1% of Betfair exchange, and probably <0.2% of Flutter group. The numbers are not material nor is pb.com being unhappy with a settlement delay.
Thunder snow in Edinburgh region overnight, apparently. The grauniad's story on it quotes* someone with a video on twitter who references the gloriously named (for those with a peurile sense of humour) @penisnow account - "follow @penisnow and keep up to date with all news on snow in penicuik. Use the hashtag #penisnow to help inform others too!" The tweets suggest the name was not chosen unknowingly.
* well, it did - now disappeared. Maybe someone had a cup of coffee and re-read the tweet
Interesting Guardian article about how the EU is failing to protect the Mediterranean.
Because it confounds the assumptions about the motivations behind Brexit, there has been very little commentary on the very real possibility of the UK adopting far more environmentally positive policies once we're unshackled from the EU's rules and regulations around agriculture etc.
Boris and Gove will prove, I suspect, a lot Greener than many may assume to be the case.
I think most of those concerned about environmental issues simply don't believe these promises. Given that the last few decades have largely consisted of the UK being pushed/forced/shamed into improving its environmental policies by the EU, it seems naive in the extreme to expect the tories to suddenly go all green off their own bat without the EU urging them along. Johnson and Gove's green pretensions will be jettisoned and forgotten as soon as they start costing money.
As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.
That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14th
There is no prospect of that, except in the fevered imagination of the Trumpaloopas.
A Republican win would mean at least two years of legislative standstill, if not outright budget sabotage.
It would mean Biden forced to compromise with the GOP, not the Democrats in control of every branch of Federal Government and AOC and Pelosi pushing the agenda leading to Tea Party 2 with bells on and a huge conservative backlash in the 2022 midterms
There is no compromise with the GOP - did you not follow Obama's presidency at all ? And that was when they were relatively moderate compared to the present incarnation. As has been pointed out to you above, a 50/50 Senate (with a Harris casting vote) would still need the votes of the right of centre Democrats to get any legislation through. The chances of AOC "pushing the agenda" are zero. A Republican majority led by McConnell would block everything, as they did before.
Yes, it's a nonsense - Manchin won't vote for court expansion for instance.
If the Democrats win all 3 branches of government the GOP will win a landslide in the 2022 midterms that will make 2010 look like a damp squib, Americans voted to get rid of Trump, narrowly, that was it, they did not vote for any shift left at all and certainly not on cultural matters
Impressive predictive skills. How was Trump's margin in Orange County California this time out compared to 2016?
Quick calc hold on.....for the first lockdown I did 15-odd miles a day for seven days a week, and then since then I have done 10-odd miles a day for five days a week so that is what - 15 x 30 x 3 = 1,350 and then 10 x 30 x 6 = 1,800 = 3,150 miles = 5,000 km so I am or will be almost exactly half the man, er cyclist you are. And all on a Highway Apollo and latterly Specialized Globe Sport.
Get a power meter next, you're riding blind without it. You can maximise the training benefit of the rides you're doing by staying at 80-90% of your 20 minute functional threshold power.
I had a massive mountain bike accident early in the year so I didn't race this year. 12-15k is more normal for me.
Thanks I will look into it. I also forgot pre Covid I was Boris bike commuting but that was commuting so actually, given that since then the riding has been for pure exercise a power meter makes a lot of sense.
Thx
Just a left sided one is fine as very few people have a more than 5% difference between their right and left legs. If you are going for an aftermarket one (as opposed to an integrated one in a Shimano/SRAM crank) the irritatingly named 4iiii brand is good. Stages are ok, but not as good value as they used to be.
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
It seems to be working in Scotland too. That's how the Tories have gone from "fewer than Pandas" to the clear opposition.
Except their fellow British nationalist parties have gone downhill, more so.
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
The other interesting bit is that "Populism" is another convenient bogeyman - as shorthand for "people voting for stuff proper people don't approve of"
If you agree with what Cromwell said at the Putney Debates - just admit it.
I'm not aware that anyone on PB has owned up to hankering after restricting the vote to (presumably the modern equivalent) higher rate income tax payers and owner-occupiers.
No, the passport to the elite is talking the right way and knowing the right people, same as it has always been. That being a racist prick has become sufficiently socially unacceptable that even an OE can't get away with it anymore is surely something to be welcomed.
Poor old Carswell... Charterhouse was clearly insufficient qualification to join the "elite".
It certainly is revealing that so many of those who rant about "the elite" seem to have been "educated" at some of our most expensive private schools. It's either a classic example of projection, pure cynicism, or the resentment of those who expected a place at the top table by default and are enraged to have been displaced by a few more talented outsiders.
Or perhaps they genuinely question the merits of a system into which they were involuntarily inserted? Like for instance George Orwell seemed to manage?
The "education" is fine, by the way, in many instances. Quote marks not needed.
But they don't seem to be questioning the system, they seem to be raging that the system is being tweaked in such a way that their own privileges are being moderately diminished. The use of "education" in quotation marks is because so many of the products of these institutions seem to be so lacking in basic compassion, self-awareness or decency as to raise questions as to what they are learning there. Of course in terms of A level results they obviously do a good job, but that is not the sole purpose of education, or at least it shouldn't be.
Interesting Guardian article about how the EU is failing to protect the Mediterranean.
Because it confounds the assumptions about the motivations behind Brexit, there has been very little commentary on the very real possibility of the UK adopting far more environmentally positive policies once we're unshackled from the EU's rules and regulations around agriculture etc.
Boris and Gove will prove, I suspect, a lot Greener than many may assume to be the case.
I think most of those concerned about environmental issues simply don't believe these promises. Given that the last few decades have largely consisted of the UK being pushed/forced/shamed into improving its environmental policies by the EU, it seems naive in the extreme to expect the tories to suddenly go all green off their own bat without the EU urging them along. Johnson and Gove's green pretensions will be jettisoned and forgotten as soon as they start costing money.
The UK has in the last few decade led the world in improving environmental policies not been forced into it by the EU.
In the past decade we've gone from primarily coal power to virtually zero coal power and become a global leader in low cost sustainable wind energy. The EU had nothing to do with that.
As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.
That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14th
I thought Biden was going moderate/conservative (with small c) so why do you think the left will appear to be driving the agenda, or do you think that will just be something that will be triggered (whether rational or not) by the EC event?
Also is the Georgia senate election 2 separate 1 against 1 races or 1 race with 4 contenders with the top 2 winning? From the looks of the article it appears to be the former.
The UK Government has instructed businesses to prepare to trade on WTO Terms. It is officially said on the website. The PM gave a speech saying we are getting ready for Australia style trade.
There may be a deal that makes some of those preparations redundant. Or there might not.
Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Every business should be getting prepared for WTO.
Indeed it has. We need to prepare to fill out customs declarations which go onto a new computer system still not completed or an old computer system that won't cope with the volume of declarations. To have our paperwork checked by customs officials not yet hired at facilities not yet built.
And what are we putting on this paperwork? There are so many categories of product where the government's own website cannot confirm either the expected arrangements or the required tariff as they are part of the negotiation.
And what of the products where the tariff is clear and the company can find the staff and the money to process all the forms? Not economically viable say industry leaders from any industry you like from farming to fishing to cars to petrochemicals to food. At the very best the price of everything is going up 20% minimum. At the very worst we'll have a load of stuff we can't afford to export.
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
It seems to be working in Scotland too. That's how the Tories have gone from "fewer than Pandas" to the clear opposition.
Except their fellow British nationalist parties have gone downhill, more so.
Good.
Labour are our number one Opposition not our allies and partners.
Whatever delusional Epping Forest jackboot wearing individuals who dream of sending the tanks in to suppress the Scots may think.
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
It seems to be working in Scotland too. That's how the Tories have gone from "fewer than Pandas" to the clear opposition.
Really?
2017 GE 13 SCon MPs returned
24/07/19 Boris Johnson becomes PM
2019 GE 6 SCon MPs returned
03/12/20 Latest Election Map UK projection 0 SCon MPs would be returned if a GE were held today
Interesting Guardian article about how the EU is failing to protect the Mediterranean.
Because it confounds the assumptions about the motivations behind Brexit, there has been very little commentary on the very real possibility of the UK adopting far more environmentally positive policies once we're unshackled from the EU's rules and regulations around agriculture etc.
Boris and Gove will prove, I suspect, a lot Greener than many may assume to be the case.
I think most of those concerned about environmental issues simply don't believe these promises. Given that the last few decades have largely consisted of the UK being pushed/forced/shamed into improving its environmental policies by the EU, it seems naive in the extreme to expect the tories to suddenly go all green off their own bat without the EU urging them along. Johnson and Gove's green pretensions will be jettisoned and forgotten as soon as they start costing money.
The UK has in the last few decade led the world in improving environmental policies not been forced into it by the EU.
In the past decade we've gone from primarily coal power to virtually zero coal power and become a global leader in low cost sustainable wind energy. The EU had nothing to do with that.
It's worth noting that the Dash For Wind Power is costing money, right now. Also the investment in charging infrastructure for electric cars
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
The other interesting bit is that "Populism" is another convenient bogeyman - as shorthand for "people voting for stuff proper people don't approve of"
If you agree with what Cromwell said at the Putney Debates - just admit it.
I'm not aware that anyone on PB has owned up to hankering after restricting the vote to (presumably the modern equivalent) higher rate income tax payers and owner-occupiers.
Great idea. Roll back the various great reform acts and take the vote off knobbers.
Interesting Guardian article about how the EU is failing to protect the Mediterranean.
Because it confounds the assumptions about the motivations behind Brexit, there has been very little commentary on the very real possibility of the UK adopting far more environmentally positive policies once we're unshackled from the EU's rules and regulations around agriculture etc.
Boris and Gove will prove, I suspect, a lot Greener than many may assume to be the case.
I think most of those concerned about environmental issues simply don't believe these promises. Given that the last few decades have largely consisted of the UK being pushed/forced/shamed into improving its environmental policies by the EU, it seems naive in the extreme to expect the tories to suddenly go all green off their own bat without the EU urging them along. Johnson and Gove's green pretensions will be jettisoned and forgotten as soon as they start costing money.
The UK has in the last few decade led the world in improving environmental policies not been forced into it by the EU.
In the past decade we've gone from primarily coal power to virtually zero coal power and become a global leader in low cost sustainable wind energy. The EU had nothing to do with that.
Your arguments would carry more weight if you bothered actually doing some research. Coal has not been our primary source of power since the 90s and Thatcher's dash for gas.
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
The other interesting bit is that "Populism" is another convenient bogeyman - as shorthand for "people voting for stuff proper people don't approve of"
If you agree with what Cromwell said at the Putney Debates - just admit it.
I'm not aware that anyone on PB has owned up to hankering after restricting the vote to (presumably the modern equivalent) higher rate income tax payers and owner-occupiers.
Great idea. Roll back the various great reform acts and take the vote off knobbers.
'Knobber'? I looked that up ... a specialised sexual perversion new to my ken. That's my new thing learnt on PB for today.
Edit: on second thoughts delete 'perversion' and put 'habit'. Wouldn't want to be judgemental, though I do hope they wash the knob afterwards.
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
The other interesting bit is that "Populism" is another convenient bogeyman - as shorthand for "people voting for stuff proper people don't approve of"
If you agree with what Cromwell said at the Putney Debates - just admit it.
For me, populism means claiming to represent the "Will of the People". Often this is explicitly put in nationalistic terms - eg the "Will of the British People". There are always loads of "people" (often a majority), indeed "British people", who clearly disagree with said incarnation of the Will Of The People, but the implication is that these Other People are not properly British, or are traitors, or are members of some "Elite" (trying to frustrate the Will of the "Ordinary British People").
I realise that there are other definitions, and the term is perhaps best avoided, but I don't think it is often used as shorthand for "people voting for stuff proper people don't approve of".
Trouble is, you can only (assuming its wise) "turn back the boats" in international waters - which doesn't exist in the Straits of Dover. The waters are either French (which we can't enter) or British (in which case the boats are our responsibility). But apart from that...
That's balls. They could do interceptions in British waters, load the refugees into lifeboats, tow them west until the British and French EEZs diverge (say as far as Roscoff) and leave them just outside the French EEZ with only enough fuel to get to France. That's exactly what the RAN did with boats from Indonesia.
Saying it "can't" be done is absolute cobblers. It absolutely could be done but the UK government doesn't have the stomach for it.
I am not commending it as a course of action but to pretend its impossible is just dishonest cowardice. But what else would you expect from tories. That virtue isn't going to signal itself.
So the fact that the Tories might be trying to avoid towing boatloads full of refugees out into the middle of the sea somehow shows the Tories are shits?
I mean don't get me wrong - I am no longer a member of the party but that is some tortuous logic.
Oh and where were you yesterday during the wet weather bike debate?
Talking of wet weather....
I was out for a walk yesterday evening. As is often the case, these days, there were quite a few people walking along by the Thames.
In one portion, the road runs so close and low that it regularly floods at each time. The road is supposed to be cambered to deal with this, but I think there has been settlement. So you get a puddle about 2 inches deep that is a lane wide and a good 20 yards long.
As usual, there was a group of people "road combing" - this is my term for walking in a side by side group, to make sure that no-one can get past, or avoiding getting within 2 meters of said fools. In this case they were taking up the full width of the road - cars are quite infrequent, and besides these people don't care.
When they reached the tidal puddle they carefully compacted their group - just enough to fill the dry part of the road.
At this point in time the local association of Fat Men On Fixie Bikes rolled past. As usual, going at a serious pace, in single file....
Since they knew the road, they went through the puddle instead of stopping.
I was previously unaware of the dynamics of a narrow bike tyre going through a puddle like like. A perfect sheet of water ejected to each side is the result..... multiple times
So each member of the Road Combers got completely drenched multiple times.
Quick calc hold on.....for the first lockdown I did 15-odd miles a day for seven days a week, and then since then I have done 10-odd miles a day for five days a week so that is what - 15 x 30 x 3 = 1,350 and then 10 x 30 x 6 = 1,800 = 3,150 miles = 5,000 km so I am or will be almost exactly half the man, er cyclist you are. And all on a Highway Apollo and latterly Specialized Globe Sport.
Get a power meter next, you're riding blind without it. You can maximise the training benefit of the rides you're doing by staying at 80-90% of your 20 minute functional threshold power.
I had a massive mountain bike accident early in the year so I didn't race this year. 12-15k is more normal for me.
Thanks I will look into it. I also forgot pre Covid I was Boris bike commuting but that was commuting so actually, given that since then the riding has been for pure exercise a power meter makes a lot of sense.
Thx
Just a left sided one is fine as very few people have a more than 5% difference between their right and left legs. If you are going for an aftermarket one (as opposed to an integrated one in a Shimano/SRAM crank) the irritatingly named 4iiii brand is good. Stages are ok, but not as good value as they used to be.
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
It seems to be working in Scotland too. That's how the Tories have gone from "fewer than Pandas" to the clear opposition.
Really?
2017 GE 13 SCon MPs returned
24/07/19 Boris Johnson becomes PM
2019 GE 6 SCon MPs returned
03/12/20 Latest Election Map UK projection 0 SCon MPs would be returned if a GE were held today
To be fair on current polls the Tories would probably hold 3/4 of their seats.
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
The other interesting bit is that "Populism" is another convenient bogeyman - as shorthand for "people voting for stuff proper people don't approve of"
If you agree with what Cromwell said at the Putney Debates - just admit it.
I'm not aware that anyone on PB has owned up to hankering after restricting the vote to (presumably the modern equivalent) higher rate income tax payers and owner-occupiers.
Great idea. Roll back the various great reform acts and take the vote off knobbers.
Until the Great Reform Act of 1832 less than 3% of the population had the vote of course, a figure which rose to 20% after, if we still had that franchise of course we would never have had Brexit, mind you we would also probably never have had the NHS either
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
It seems to be working in Scotland too. That's how the Tories have gone from "fewer than Pandas" to the clear opposition.
Except their fellow British nationalist parties have gone downhill, more so.
Good.
Labour are our number one Opposition not our allies and partners.
Whatever delusional Epping Forest jackboot wearing individuals who dream of sending the tanks in to suppress the Scots may think.
No, Labour are the main UK opposition party, the SNP however are enemies of the State
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
It seems to be working in Scotland too. That's how the Tories have gone from "fewer than Pandas" to the clear opposition.
Except their fellow British nationalist parties have gone downhill, more so.
Good.
Labour are our number one Opposition not our allies and partners.
Whatever delusional Epping Forest jackboot wearing individuals who dream of sending the tanks in to suppress the Scots may think.
No, Labour are the main UK opposition party, the SNP however are enemies of the State
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
The other interesting bit is that "Populism" is another convenient bogeyman - as shorthand for "people voting for stuff proper people don't approve of"
If you agree with what Cromwell said at the Putney Debates - just admit it.
For me, populism means claiming to represent the "Will of the People". Often this is explicitly put in nationalistic terms - eg the "Will of the British People". There are always loads of "people" (often a majority), indeed "British people", who clearly disagree with said incarnation of the Will Of The People, but the implication is that these Other People are not properly British, or are traitors, or are members of some "Elite" (trying to frustrate the Will of the "Ordinary British People").
I realise that there are other definitions, and the term is perhaps best avoided, but I don't think it is often used as shorthand for "people voting for stuff proper people don't approve of".
It is nearly always used to justify social reform - abolition of hanging being a very good example as it still holds true today.
The UK Government has instructed businesses to prepare to trade on WTO Terms. It is officially said on the website. The PM gave a speech saying we are getting ready for Australia style trade.
There may be a deal that makes some of those preparations redundant. Or there might not.
Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Every business should be getting prepared for WTO.
Indeed it has. We need to prepare to fill out customs declarations which go onto a new computer system still not completed or an old computer system that won't cope with the volume of declarations. To have our paperwork checked by customs officials not yet hired at facilities not yet built.
And what are we putting on this paperwork? There are so many categories of product where the government's own website cannot confirm either the expected arrangements or the required tariff as they are part of the negotiation.
And what of the products where the tariff is clear and the company can find the staff and the money to process all the forms? Not economically viable say industry leaders from any industry you like from farming to fishing to cars to petrochemicals to food. At the very best the price of everything is going up 20% minimum. At the very worst we'll have a load of stuff we can't afford to export.
So if anything goes wrong its all our fault.
Clearly it will be someone's fault.
And, by definition, it can't be government's fault...
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
It seems to be working in Scotland too. That's how the Tories have gone from "fewer than Pandas" to the clear opposition.
Really?
2017 GE 13 SCon MPs returned
24/07/19 Boris Johnson becomes PM
2019 GE 6 SCon MPs returned
03/12/20 Latest Election Map UK projection 0 SCon MPs would be returned if a GE were held today
Except that life didn't begin in 2017, nor did trying to turn the SNP into a bogeyman begin after 2017 so that is not the baseline. 2017 was very much the exception not the norm, so why not start from 1997?
1997 GE - 0 SCon MPs vs 56 Labour MPs 2001 GE - 1 SCon MP vs 56 Labour MPs 2005 GE - 1 SCon MP vs 41 Labour MPs (fewer overall Scottish MPs from now on) 2010 GE - 1 SCon MP vs 41 Labour MPs 2015 GE - 1 SCon MP vs 1 Labour MP 2017 GE - 13 SCon MPs vs 7 Labour MPs 2019 GE - 6 SCon MPs vs 1 Labour MP
The project to turn the SNP into a bogeyman began nearly a decade ago and 2017 and 2019 were by far the best two elections in decades.
Following on from the cycling discussions earlier, I've put my bike away for the winter. And a good job too, I'm reading a local news story pointing out that so many of the rides I used to do now cross the Tier 2/3 border and its illegal for me to ride my allegedly pox-filled body into the clean zone of Hambleton...
The UK Government has instructed businesses to prepare to trade on WTO Terms. It is officially said on the website. The PM gave a speech saying we are getting ready for Australia style trade.
There may be a deal that makes some of those preparations redundant. Or there might not.
Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Every business should be getting prepared for WTO.
But it isn't as simple as that. Many businesses are waiting on instructions from the Got regardless of the outcome. For instance the Pharmaceutical industry. I know this because my wife works in drug safety. They are in limbo still. Currently NI for instance has two different requirements for drug labelling come 1 January and you can't wait to the last moment.
A guy on the news the other day wanting to ship fryers has no idea what to do. You can prepare for both possibilities (well even that is not true if you don't know what one of them is) but at some point for a particular order you have to pack stuff, prepare paperwork, order the trailer etc and if you don't know what to do you can't do it so you are in limbo.
As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.
That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14th
I thought Biden was going moderate/conservative (with small c) so why do you think the left will appear to be driving the agenda, or do you think that will just be something that will be triggered (whether rational or not) by the EC event?
Also is the Georgia senate election 2 separate 1 against 1 races or 1 race with 4 contenders with the top 2 winning? From the looks of the article it appears to be the former.
Biden will only be a moderate with the GOP in control of part of Congress, if a President sees their party control Congress then the party base in Congress are able to push the agenda
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
The other interesting bit is that "Populism" is another convenient bogeyman - as shorthand for "people voting for stuff proper people don't approve of"
If you agree with what Cromwell said at the Putney Debates - just admit it.
I'm not aware that anyone on PB has owned up to hankering after restricting the vote to (presumably the modern equivalent) higher rate income tax payers and owner-occupiers.
Great idea. Roll back the various great reform acts and take the vote off knobbers.
Until the Great Reform Act of 1832 less than 3% of the population had the vote of course, a figure which rose to 20% after, if we still had that franchise of course we would never have had Brexit, mind you we would also probably never have had the NHS either
Plenty of people complain about ill-educated voters. Which would, in practise suggest restricting the vote to the University educated. Possibly the high end university educated. Which would, in effect, take you back to what Cromwell was proposing - the middle and the high would run the country. The low would get to live in it.
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
The other interesting bit is that "Populism" is another convenient bogeyman - as shorthand for "people voting for stuff proper people don't approve of"
If you agree with what Cromwell said at the Putney Debates - just admit it.
I'm not aware that anyone on PB has owned up to hankering after restricting the vote to (presumably the modern equivalent) higher rate income tax payers and owner-occupiers.
Great idea. Roll back the various great reform acts and take the vote off knobbers.
'Knobber'? I looked that up ... a specialised sexual perversion new to my ken. That's my new thing learnt on PB for today.
Edit: on second thoughts delete 'perversion' and put 'habit'. Wouldn't want to be judgemental, though I do hope they wash the knob afterwards.
After reading your post I have also had to look it up. I meant "noun to describe someone who acts like an idiot" not "someone who sucks a lot of ManCock"
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
It seems to be working in Scotland too. That's how the Tories have gone from "fewer than Pandas" to the clear opposition.
Except their fellow British nationalist parties have gone downhill, more so.
Good.
Labour are our number one Opposition not our allies and partners.
Whatever delusional Epping Forest jackboot wearing individuals who dream of sending the tanks in to suppress the Scots may think.
No, Labour are the main UK opposition party, the SNP however are enemies of the State
Get your jackboots off.
The SNP are the government of Scotland, democratically elected.
As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.
That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14th
I thought Biden was going moderate/conservative (with small c) so why do you think the left will appear to be driving the agenda, or do you think that will just be something that will be triggered (whether rational or not) by the EC event?
Also is the Georgia senate election 2 separate 1 against 1 races or 1 race with 4 contenders with the top 2 winning? From the looks of the article it appears to be the former.
Biden will only be a moderate with the GOP in control of part of Congress, if a President sees their party control Congress then the party base in Congress are able to push the agenda
Not necessarily, there are Democratic Senators in Republican states who will have to be convinced.
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
The other interesting bit is that "Populism" is another convenient bogeyman - as shorthand for "people voting for stuff proper people don't approve of"
If you agree with what Cromwell said at the Putney Debates - just admit it.
For me, populism means claiming to represent the "Will of the People". Often this is explicitly put in nationalistic terms - eg the "Will of the British People". There are always loads of "people" (often a majority), indeed "British people", who clearly disagree with said incarnation of the Will Of The People, but the implication is that these Other People are not properly British, or are traitors, or are members of some "Elite" (trying to frustrate the Will of the "Ordinary British People").
I realise that there are other definitions, and the term is perhaps best avoided, but I don't think it is often used as shorthand for "people voting for stuff proper people don't approve of".
So it could be said to be
"The will of the people" vs "The will of the proper people" ....
As to "elites" - that is an accusation that gets thrown in all directions these days.
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
It seems to be working in Scotland too. That's how the Tories have gone from "fewer than Pandas" to the clear opposition.
Really?
2017 GE 13 SCon MPs returned
24/07/19 Boris Johnson becomes PM
2019 GE 6 SCon MPs returned
03/12/20 Latest Election Map UK projection 0 SCon MPs would be returned if a GE were held today
To be fair on current polls the Tories would probably hold 3/4 of their seats.
So 4 & 1/2 seats? I can think of several of the current Tory incumbents who would qualify as half an mp.
As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.
That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14th
There is no prospect of that, except in the fevered imagination of the Trumpaloopas.
A Republican win would mean at least two years of legislative standstill, if not outright budget sabotage.
It would mean Biden forced to compromise with the GOP, not the Democrats in control of every branch of Federal Government and AOC and Pelosi pushing the agenda leading to Tea Party 2 with bells on and a huge conservative backlash in the 2022 midterms
There is no compromise with the GOP - did you not follow Obama's presidency at all ? And that was when they were relatively moderate compared to the present incarnation. As has been pointed out to you above, a 50/50 Senate (with a Harris casting vote) would still need the votes of the right of centre Democrats to get any legislation through. The chances of AOC "pushing the agenda" are zero. A Republican majority led by McConnell would block everything, as they did before.
Yes, it's a nonsense - Manchin won't vote for court expansion for instance.
If the Democrats win all 3 branches of government the GOP will win a landslide in the 2022 midterms that will make 2010 look like a damp squib, Americans voted to get rid of Trump, narrowly, that was it, they did not vote for any shift left at all and certainly not on cultural matters
Impressive predictive skills. How was Trump's margin in Orange County California this time out compared to 2016?
Irrelevant as California is now safe Democratic anyway, Trump did however hold Florida and Ohio, the first losing presidential candidate to do since 1960
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
It seems to be working in Scotland too. That's how the Tories have gone from "fewer than Pandas" to the clear opposition.
Except their fellow British nationalist parties have gone downhill, more so.
Good.
Labour are our number one Opposition not our allies and partners.
Whatever delusional Epping Forest jackboot wearing individuals who dream of sending the tanks in to suppress the Scots may think.
No, Labour are the main UK opposition party, the SNP however are enemies of the State
The SNP are "the state" in Scotland.
No, that is Her Majesty's Government at Westminster
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
The other interesting bit is that "Populism" is another convenient bogeyman - as shorthand for "people voting for stuff proper people don't approve of"
If you agree with what Cromwell said at the Putney Debates - just admit it.
I'm not aware that anyone on PB has owned up to hankering after restricting the vote to (presumably the modern equivalent) higher rate income tax payers and owner-occupiers.
Great idea. Roll back the various great reform acts and take the vote off knobbers.
Until the Great Reform Act of 1832 less than 3% of the population had the vote of course, a figure which rose to 20% after, if we still had that franchise of course we would never have had Brexit, mind you we would also probably never have had the NHS either
Plenty of people complain about ill-educated voters. Which would, in practise suggest restricting the vote to the University educated. Possibly the high end university educated. Which would, in effect, take you back to what Cromwell was proposing - the middle and the high would run the country. The low would get to live in it.
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
It seems to be working in Scotland too. That's how the Tories have gone from "fewer than Pandas" to the clear opposition.
Except their fellow British nationalist parties have gone downhill, more so.
Good.
Labour are our number one Opposition not our allies and partners.
Whatever delusional Epping Forest jackboot wearing individuals who dream of sending the tanks in to suppress the Scots may think.
No, Labour are the main UK opposition party, the SNP however are enemies of the State
The SNP are "the state" in Scotland.
No, that is Her Majesty's Government at Westminster
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
The other interesting bit is that "Populism" is another convenient bogeyman - as shorthand for "people voting for stuff proper people don't approve of"
If you agree with what Cromwell said at the Putney Debates - just admit it.
I'm not aware that anyone on PB has owned up to hankering after restricting the vote to (presumably the modern equivalent) higher rate income tax payers and owner-occupiers.
Great idea. Roll back the various great reform acts and take the vote off knobbers.
'Knobber'? I looked that up ... a specialised sexual perversion new to my ken. That's my new thing learnt on PB for today.
Edit: on second thoughts delete 'perversion' and put 'habit'. Wouldn't want to be judgemental, though I do hope they wash the knob afterwards.
After reading your post I have also had to look it up. I meant "noun to describe someone who acts like an idiot" not "someone who sucks a lot of ManCock"
Ah, I did wonder. An English version of numpty, then. I will never look at a doorknob in the same way again. Thank goodness proper old solid brass one3s have antiseptic properties.
Interesting Guardian article about how the EU is failing to protect the Mediterranean.
Because it confounds the assumptions about the motivations behind Brexit, there has been very little commentary on the very real possibility of the UK adopting far more environmentally positive policies once we're unshackled from the EU's rules and regulations around agriculture etc.
Boris and Gove will prove, I suspect, a lot Greener than many may assume to be the case.
I think most of those concerned about environmental issues simply don't believe these promises. Given that the last few decades have largely consisted of the UK being pushed/forced/shamed into improving its environmental policies by the EU, it seems naive in the extreme to expect the tories to suddenly go all green off their own bat without the EU urging them along. Johnson and Gove's green pretensions will be jettisoned and forgotten as soon as they start costing money.
The UK has in the last few decade led the world in improving environmental policies not been forced into it by the EU.
In the past decade we've gone from primarily coal power to virtually zero coal power and become a global leader in low cost sustainable wind energy. The EU had nothing to do with that.
Your arguments would carry more weight if you bothered actually doing some research. Coal has not been our primary source of power since the 90s and Thatcher's dash for gas.
In 2012 coal produced 41% of our electricity and was our primary source of electricity.
Today we have been coal-free most of the year and coal is very much the exception not the norm.
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
The other interesting bit is that "Populism" is another convenient bogeyman - as shorthand for "people voting for stuff proper people don't approve of"
If you agree with what Cromwell said at the Putney Debates - just admit it.
I'm not aware that anyone on PB has owned up to hankering after restricting the vote to (presumably the modern equivalent) higher rate income tax payers and owner-occupiers.
Great idea. Roll back the various great reform acts and take the vote off knobbers.
Until the Great Reform Act of 1832 less than 3% of the population had the vote of course, a figure which rose to 20% after, if we still had that franchise of course we would never have had Brexit, mind you we would also probably never have had the NHS either
Plenty of people complain about ill-educated voters. Which would, in practise suggest restricting the vote to the University educated. Possibly the high end university educated. Which would, in effect, take you back to what Cromwell was proposing - the middle and the high would run the country. The low would get to live in it.
Perhaps they could restrict the franchise to Oxbridge graduates earning over £100 000 a year, then we really would get elitist politics
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
The other interesting bit is that "Populism" is another convenient bogeyman - as shorthand for "people voting for stuff proper people don't approve of"
If you agree with what Cromwell said at the Putney Debates - just admit it.
I'm not aware that anyone on PB has owned up to hankering after restricting the vote to (presumably the modern equivalent) higher rate income tax payers and owner-occupiers.
Great idea. Roll back the various great reform acts and take the vote off knobbers.
'Knobber'? I looked that up ... a specialised sexual perversion new to my ken. That's my new thing learnt on PB for today.
Edit: on second thoughts delete 'perversion' and put 'habit'. Wouldn't want to be judgemental, though I do hope they wash the knob afterwards.
After reading your post I have also had to look it up. I meant "noun to describe someone who acts like an idiot" not "someone who sucks a lot of ManCock"
Looked it up, too. How, in the name of all that's holy, did anyone even THINK of doing that?
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
It seems to be working in Scotland too. That's how the Tories have gone from "fewer than Pandas" to the clear opposition.
Except their fellow British nationalist parties have gone downhill, more so.
Good.
Labour are our number one Opposition not our allies and partners.
Whatever delusional Epping Forest jackboot wearing individuals who dream of sending the tanks in to suppress the Scots may think.
No, Labour are the main UK opposition party, the SNP however are enemies of the State
The SNP are "the state" in Scotland.
No, that is Her Majesty's Government at Westminster
Following on from the cycling discussions earlier, I've put my bike away for the winter. And a good job too, I'm reading a local news story pointing out that so many of the rides I used to do now cross the Tier 2/3 border and its illegal for me to ride my allegedly pox-filled body into the clean zone of Hambleton...
That's going to be fun tomorrow when we leave this pox-filled tier 3 area and travel though Tier 2 to collect daughter from tier 3 area
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
The other interesting bit is that "Populism" is another convenient bogeyman - as shorthand for "people voting for stuff proper people don't approve of"
If you agree with what Cromwell said at the Putney Debates - just admit it.
For me, populism means claiming to represent the "Will of the People". Often this is explicitly put in nationalistic terms - eg the "Will of the British People". There are always loads of "people" (often a majority), indeed "British people", who clearly disagree with said incarnation of the Will Of The People, but the implication is that these Other People are not properly British, or are traitors, or are members of some "Elite" (trying to frustrate the Will of the "Ordinary British People").
I realise that there are other definitions, and the term is perhaps best avoided, but I don't think it is often used as shorthand for "people voting for stuff proper people don't approve of".
The People vs Elites = Populism.
Our People vs Cultural Elites + Foreigners = Right Nationalist Populism.
BJ and his motley crew (more populist than popular now the glitter is coming off the turd) are certainly doing their best to turn the SNP into a bogeyman. This may work in certain parts of England, or the Channel Islands, but zero evidence of any effect in the important bit, i.e. Scotland. A rising chorus of UJs, criticising devolution and Scotland's a bit shit reaching a crescendo in 6 months will do the trick I'm sure.
It seems to be working in Scotland too. That's how the Tories have gone from "fewer than Pandas" to the clear opposition.
Really?
2017 GE 13 SCon MPs returned
24/07/19 Boris Johnson becomes PM
2019 GE 6 SCon MPs returned
03/12/20 Latest Election Map UK projection 0 SCon MPs would be returned if a GE were held today
Except that life didn't begin in 2017, nor did trying to turn the SNP into a bogeyman begin after 2017 so that is not the baseline. 2017 was very much the exception not the norm, so why not start from 1997?
1997 GE - 0 SCon MPs vs 56 Labour MPs 2001 GE - 1 SCon MP vs 56 Labour MPs 2005 GE - 1 SCon MP vs 41 Labour MPs (fewer overall Scottish MPs from now on) 2010 GE - 1 SCon MP vs 41 Labour MPs 2015 GE - 1 SCon MP vs 1 Labour MP 2017 GE - 13 SCon MPs vs 7 Labour MPs 2019 GE - 6 SCon MPs vs 1 Labour MP
The project to turn the SNP into a bogeyman began nearly a decade ago and 2017 and 2019 were by far the best two elections in decades.
Good to see Fauci withdraw those ill advised comments about the UK vaccine approval, he must have regretted saying what he did almost immediately afterwards given that the FDA is a few days away from approving the very same vaccine.
Had a chat with some pharma friends I went to university with, they both confirmed my suspicions that the EMA no longer recognising the MHRA is a real issue for the EU at the moment and will be for the next few years. The MHRA accounted for well over half of the EU's medicines regulatory capacity. One of them speculated that the EU strategy of not accepting mutual recognition was predicated on London based EMA staff moving with the job and drawing expertise away from the MHRA (which is a very international workplace with a huge proportion of EU workers). Given that hasn't materialised it leaves EU agencies filling the gap created by chucking the MHRA out and medicines regulators aren't exactly two a penny anywhere in the world.
Stupidly the EU is simply going to replicate exactly what the MHRA does wrt approvals because the rulebooks in the UK and EU are identical and will more than likely remain so for some years to come and the government put a deal on the table for mutual recognition going forwards as long as both rulebooks stayed in broad alignment (which they would, given that the UK and EU are both in the first world and unlikely to take any risks with drug approval).
Comments
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/73501368#/
Because it confounds the assumptions about the motivations behind Brexit, there has been very little commentary on the very real possibility of the UK adopting far more environmentally positive policies once we're unshackled from the EU's rules and regulations around agriculture etc.
Boris and Gove will prove, I suspect, a lot Greener than many may assume to be the case.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/03/auditors-slam-eu-for-marine-protected-areas-that-fail-to-protect-ocean
https://twitter.com/ESPNcricinfo/status/1334800149667848192?s=20
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/flutter-increases-stake-in-us-operator-fanduel-in-313-billion-deal/461855
Quick calc hold on.....for the first lockdown I did 15-odd miles a day for seven days a week, and then since then I have done 10-odd miles a day for five days a week so that is what - 15 x 30 x 3 = 1,350 and then 10 x 30 x 6 = 1,800 = 3,150 miles = 5,000 km so I am or will be almost exactly half the
man, ercyclist you are. And all on a Highway Apollo and latterly Specialized Globe Sport.It will be fascinating to see whether the Scots want their long term state capital to be London or Brussels. Will they realise that Edinburgh is not on the table if they wish to join the EU?
Purdue +3 (actual + 1.8)
Warnock +4 (actual +7.0)
So pretty decent, although those polls were three weeks before the election.
But not today.
Guests at the Brussels 'daddy orgy' where an anti-LGBT politician was caught breaking lockdown rules thought the police who arrived to break up the party were part of the romp, the organiser claims.
David Manzheley said some of the 30 male guests had 'tried to unzip the pants of the policemen because they thought that the raid was part of the orgy' after the event at his Brussels apartment was shut down last Friday.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9017489/Guests-Brussels-daddy-orgy-thought-cops-act-host-claims.html
https://twitter.com/HeleneBismarck/status/1334817536706289665?s=20
https://twitter.com/HeleneBismarck/status/1334817542439890945?s=20
https://twitter.com/HeleneBismarck/status/1334817544411213824?s=20
It's a FPTP election with Biden versus Trump and they voted for Biden. With an absolute majority.
Anything else and we're guessing or projecting.
Would you have any hesitation in saying that Britain voted for an exit to the Single Market? Or for us to leave the EU in January come what may? Or for the triple lock on pensions to continue? Or for a points-based immigration system?
Or would it be fair to say that Britain voted against Corbynism and his vision of socialism, not any of the stuff above?
The tweets suggest the name was not chosen unknowingly.
* well, it did - now disappeared. Maybe someone had a cup of coffee and re-read the tweet
I had a massive mountain bike accident early in the year so I didn't race this year. 12-15k is more normal for me.
An outspokenly anti-LGBT politician has raised eyebrows after a semi-naked man appeared behind him during a Zoom call.
Video shows a document on screen before cutting to Lithuanian MP Petras Grazulis's webcam.
Only the top of his head is visible as a topless man peers at the screen over his shoulder.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9017591/Anti-LGBT-Lithuanian-politician-mocked-semi-naked-man-appears-online-call.html
I was out for a walk yesterday evening. As is often the case, these days, there were quite a few people walking along by the Thames.
In one portion, the road runs so close and low that it regularly floods at each time. The road is supposed to be cambered to deal with this, but I think there has been settlement. So you get a puddle about 2 inches deep that is a lane wide and a good 20 yards long.
As usual, there was a group of people "road combing" - this is my term for walking in a side by side group, to make sure that no-one can get past, or avoiding getting within 2 meters of said fools. In this case they were taking up the full width of the road - cars are quite infrequent, and besides these people don't care.
When they reached the tidal puddle they carefully compacted their group - just enough to fill the dry part of the road.
At this point in time the local association of Fat Men On Fixie Bikes rolled past. As usual, going at a serious pace, in single file....
Since they knew the road, they went through the puddle instead of stopping.
I was previously unaware of the dynamics of a narrow bike tyre going through a puddle like like. A perfect sheet of water ejected to each side is the result..... multiple times
So each member of the Road Combers got completely drenched multiple times.
Thx
Hmm, have Westminster made a decision?
The "education" is fine, by the way, in many instances. Quote marks not needed.
The UK Government has instructed businesses to prepare to trade on WTO Terms. It is officially said on the website. The PM gave a speech saying we are getting ready for Australia style trade.
There may be a deal that makes some of those preparations redundant. Or there might not.
Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Every business should be getting prepared for WTO.
If you agree with what Cromwell said at the Putney Debates - just admit it.
The use of "education" in quotation marks is because so many of the products of these institutions seem to be so lacking in basic compassion, self-awareness or decency as to raise questions as to what they are learning there. Of course in terms of A level results they obviously do a good job, but that is not the sole purpose of education, or at least it shouldn't be.
In the past decade we've gone from primarily coal power to virtually zero coal power and become a global leader in low cost sustainable wind energy. The EU had nothing to do with that.
Also is the Georgia senate election 2 separate 1 against 1 races or 1 race with 4 contenders with the top 2 winning? From the looks of the article it appears to be the former.
And what are we putting on this paperwork? There are so many categories of product where the government's own website cannot confirm either the expected arrangements or the required tariff as they are part of the negotiation.
And what of the products where the tariff is clear and the company can find the staff and the money to process all the forms? Not economically viable say industry leaders from any industry you like from farming to fishing to cars to petrochemicals to food. At the very best the price of everything is going up 20% minimum. At the very worst we'll have a load of stuff we can't afford to export.
So if anything goes wrong its all our fault.
Labour are our number one Opposition not our allies and partners.
Whatever delusional Epping Forest jackboot wearing individuals who dream of sending the tanks in to suppress the Scots may think.
2017 GE
13 SCon MPs returned
24/07/19
Boris Johnson becomes PM
2019 GE
6 SCon MPs returned
03/12/20 Latest Election Map UK projection
0 SCon MPs would be returned if a GE were held today
etc etc
https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1334829242912215041?s=20
Edit: on second thoughts delete 'perversion' and put 'habit'. Wouldn't want to be judgemental, though I do hope they wash the knob afterwards.
I realise that there are other definitions, and the term is perhaps best avoided, but I don't think it is often used as shorthand for "people voting for stuff proper people don't approve of".
And, by definition, it can't be government's fault...
1997 GE - 0 SCon MPs vs 56 Labour MPs
2001 GE - 1 SCon MP vs 56 Labour MPs
2005 GE - 1 SCon MP vs 41 Labour MPs (fewer overall Scottish MPs from now on)
2010 GE - 1 SCon MP vs 41 Labour MPs
2015 GE - 1 SCon MP vs 1 Labour MP
2017 GE - 13 SCon MPs vs 7 Labour MPs
2019 GE - 6 SCon MPs vs 1 Labour MP
The project to turn the SNP into a bogeyman began nearly a decade ago and 2017 and 2019 were by far the best two elections in decades.
A guy on the news the other day wanting to ship fryers has no idea what to do. You can prepare for both possibilities (well even that is not true if you don't know what one of them is) but at some point for a particular order you have to pack stuff, prepare paperwork, order the trailer etc and if you don't know what to do you can't do it so you are in limbo.
The SNP are the government of Scotland, democratically elected.
"The will of the people" vs "The will of the proper people" ....
As to "elites" - that is an accusation that gets thrown in all directions these days.
Almost as good as the Epping Forest one.
https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1334831179535691777?s=20
Today we have been coal-free most of the year and coal is very much the exception not the norm.
That is an incredible turnaround in eight years.
Wasn't a rebellion either - just the final success of the German invasion of the UK.
More to the point why?
Our People vs Cultural Elites + Foreigners = Right Nationalist Populism.
The People vs Financial Elites = Left Populism.
Had a chat with some pharma friends I went to university with, they both confirmed my suspicions that the EMA no longer recognising the MHRA is a real issue for the EU at the moment and will be for the next few years. The MHRA accounted for well over half of the EU's medicines regulatory capacity. One of them speculated that the EU strategy of not accepting mutual recognition was predicated on London based EMA staff moving with the job and drawing expertise away from the MHRA (which is a very international workplace with a huge proportion of EU workers). Given that hasn't materialised it leaves EU agencies filling the gap created by chucking the MHRA out and medicines regulators aren't exactly two a penny anywhere in the world.
Stupidly the EU is simply going to replicate exactly what the MHRA does wrt approvals because the rulebooks in the UK and EU are identical and will more than likely remain so for some years to come and the government put a deal on the table for mutual recognition going forwards as long as both rulebooks stayed in broad alignment (which they would, given that the UK and EU are both in the first world and unlikely to take any risks with drug approval).
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1334834529782145025?s=20