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This Georgia runoff polling’s looking positive for the Democrats and Senate control might be in reac
This Georgia runoff polling’s looking positive for the Democrats and Senate control might be in reach – politicalbetting.com
Sore loser and lame duck President, Trump, is planing to visit Georgia in the next two days in order to give his backing to GOP contenders in the two senate runoff races that take place on January 5th.
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I don't think Rejoin will be on any major parties manifesto in 2024, but quite likely for the one after that.
For the very large number of people who just run the car locally, this sort of thing will be the future. For about £4k new.
https://insideevs.com/news/458005/china-wuling-hong-guang-mini-sales-november/
Usually the turnout would collapse after the presidential election - I think 2008 was like 60% of the previous November, but what happens when it decides the Senate?
Usually the losing side would be riled up and turn out, but what happens when both sides think they've won?
Dems are programmed to vote by mail and GOP in-person. Given high organization that sounds like it will work for the Dem side, but do people going out to vote help encourage their neighbours to go out to vote?
The whole insane stop-the-steal boycott angle - I mean, WTF?
Tony Blair is correct
In the US, which was at record highs before the vaccine announcements and which is now just over 30,000 in expectation of yet another stimulus package, looks the most vulnerable. Despite our relief at Trump's presumed departure, the tough decisions are going to be stacking up on Biden's desk, and this and he won't be so market-friendly.
In the UK it all depends on the extent of January disruption, and a safety-first approach looks sensible.
The santa rally is usually reliable - originating from the tendency of investors to review their holdings during the holiday period and make new investments along with their new year resolutions - and has become a self fulfilling prophecy as punters pile in at this time of year in anticipation.
I've done pretty well so far from the vaccine boost - the Carnival shares I mentioned buying on here in the summer for just below £10 looked initially like a mistake, but are now rising toward £15, I've nearly doubled my money on Rolls Royce, am up about 50% on Royal Mail, and the other recovery shares I have - WH Smith, Lloyd's Bank, Shell, as well as various ITs like RIT, JMG, Temple Bar, are all doing well.
If there's a Brexit deal I may take an up spread bet on the FTSE in anticipation of Santa but look to close it between Xmas and New Year, rather than hold into the early days of January as usual, as the Jan 1 risk is still there. If there's no Brexit deal I'm not playing this year. I am also inclined to reduce risk by taking a down bet on the DOW while it's above 30,000; an insurance position it is worth sticking with into 2021.
Despite the above the bulk of my holdings are defensive, reflecting both outlook and character, and I'll be mostly sticking with the index linked bonds, gold, and safety-first funds like Troy Trojan, Ruffer and BNY Real Return until my pension arrives in 2022.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/03/labour-fall-out-over-brexit-boris-johnson-deal
I'm delighted at the moment a new supermarket is being built on my road and it comes with a petrol station. Remarkably there are no petrol stations in my part of town so I need to drive out of my way just to refuel so this will be one less headache once built.
However once there's a critical mass of Electric Vehicles and recharging there'll be a lot less incentive to build new fuel stations. Then there'll be lot less incentive to maintain existing ones. Eventually the petrol station will go the way of film processing shops.
The market can adapt to these changes very rapidly and it becomes a positive reinforcement cycle.
Fewer ICV leads to fewer petrol stations gives another incentive not to buy an ICV leads to even fewer stations.
*the end of the United Kingdom being perhaps the exception.
One is to neutralise the Brexit issue and move on, such that voting Leave in 2016 is no longer the most important pointer to voting Conservative. So long as Starmer gives qualified backing for Johnson's agreement in parliament, I think that will be achieved. The fact that Blair is signalling that it's time to move on is very welcome, because it relegates any "rejoin" lobby to the political fringes.
The other is to be able to show, unequivocally, that Corbyn and his followers no longer have any real influence within the party. That could have been done fairly quietly, almost by default. However, it now looks like the only way to do that is to win a very messy civil war, because Corbyn's faction have chosen to go out kicking and screaming.
The "red wall voters" won't care if he abstains or votes for. If he votes against that's another matter.
Started snowing here. And settling.
Must be heavy in the Pennines, and Scotland.
The Tories will own this one way or another so let them vote for or reject it.
Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.05
Biden ECV 300-329 1.05
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.04
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.05
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers
AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.05
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.03
PA Dem 1.04
WI Dem 1.04
Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.12
Trump exit date 2021 1.07
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1334791417135308800?s=20
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1334791418703982593?s=20
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1334520197139587074?s=20
The last runoff poll had Loeffler ahead anyway
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1329255402157043713?s=20
A Democratic win in both Georgia Senate races would also be a disaster for the US in my view, Biden won to remove Trump and to bring about a calmer period of pragmatic moderation like Bush 41 in 1989 (the last President to enter office without his party in full control of Congress) not to hand power from Trump to AOC and the far left which is what would happen if the Democrats won the Senate via Harris' casting vote as well as the House and the Presidency.
It would then be AOC and Pelosi setting the agenda with Schumer and Biden would just be a pawn for them with an equally large conservative backlash at the 2022 midterms
The fully specced model with ABS etc is around $5,500 - though of course there would be VAT on top of that over here.
The other point, of course, is that if Tesla's new battery format works as planned for mass production, battery prices will just about halve in the next three to four years.
The Democrats are obviously still in with a chance. I think a better indicator might be the way that Trump's national approval rating fares over the next few weeks, although that so far has declined only slightly albeit with some very contradictory results within that average (eg. latest Rasmussen +2, Ipsos -21). It's possible that as reality bites, and he goes out with a discredited whimper, his diehard supporters will lose heart and be less inclined to turn out, whereas morale and turnout will still be high in the Democrat camp. That's their best scenario. I still think that it's very much a long shot for the Dems to pick up both seats as opposed to just one, although I'd very much like to be wrong on that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McOrMN9cQ_E
Then we do a bit more around about 100-150 mile round trip. That's fine, too
Then we (still) drive to UK relations and holidays 250 miles plus. OK, rent an ICV car.
Trouble is renting as an 80+ driver isn't quite as easy. Even with a clean licence.
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1334799510032232450?s=20
I had to look Amanda Milling up. What's she done or not done to upset the kippers on ConHome?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invalid_carriage#/media/File:Invacar_1973_(4).JPG
A Republican win would mean at least two years of legislative standstill, if not outright budget sabotage.
The only surprising thing is that he's being more honest about it now than he was then.
Intrigued to see how practice goes.
Edited extra bit: put a tiny sum on Stroll at 101 (with boost) each way to win. Just in case.
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1334803354699108353?s=20
My equities have done well this year, after I went 90% cash in Feb, then reinvested in April once the peak had passed. That is going to be hard to replicate in terms of timing!
I expect a bit more of a rally, but there is misery to come, with many retail and hospitality failures in Q1. I am sceptical of airlines and cruise lines too. They simply don't look cheap to me, and are going to report further losses.
My best performing recovery stocks have been miners (ANTO, RIO and S32), and defensives that I bought at good prices in April (Rentokil, Synth), with my bank stocks fairly neutral (HSBA and STAN), though a few months ago they were substantially down. I have started some profit taking to rebalanced my portfolio.
I am bearish on the American markets, which look rather peaky. Republican Senators are deficit hawks in Dem administrations and deficit deniers in Republican ones. I see some harsh austerity coming in the US.
As has been pointed out to you above, a 50/50 Senate (with a Harris casting vote) would still need the votes of the right of centre Democrats to get any legislation through. The chances of AOC "pushing the agenda" are zero.
A Republican majority led by McConnell would block everything, as they did before.
Can you draw a map of international waters in the Channel?
"We lost all our business in the October half-term from the firebreak lockdown, which was a real first blow. We were promised everything would open up for Christmas and now we're in the same situation."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55167513
Americans did not vote for a shift left and to change much, they voted to get rid of Trump, that is it
It's the same here. It doesn't matter that this government has set itself a task (making their version of Brexit a success) that would have taxed a leader with the steely determination of Thatcher in her pomp, the backroom dark arts of Wilson at his most cunning, the doggedness of Major, the charm of Blair, the analytics of Brown and the salesmanship and verve of early Cameron all at once. (Add the best things about May, Callaghan and anyone else if you want to.) It doesn't matter that we have a third rate Prime Minister with a fourth rate Cabinet whose only real talents are superficial bonhomie and understanding of gang dynamics.
He's won the right to try to do it his way. Nothing I have seen makes me confident that it will work, but that decision has been taken. And all we can do is hope.
But in the event, perish the thought, that this doesn't work, the Rejoin argument will inevitably be made, and if enough people are convinced by it, it will happen. Not immediately, but not never, either.
I`ve done well of late on IAG shares (BA). Bought at 96p, sold at £1.60 - within a month.
My portfolio is very cautious overall at the moment. But I do think a Santa rally could be a thing this year. And agree that buying now with a view to selling between Xmas Day and the New Year is the best tactic.
I`ve recently bought Flutter Entertainment shares (BF and PP), as I don`t think the humongous sums taken in the election are factored in. Though I will sell in short term due to concerns about reputational damage due to settlement delays. But DYOR blah blah.
So no change there, then.
Saying it "can't" be done is absolute cobblers. It absolutely could be done but the UK government doesn't have the stomach for it.
I am not commending it as a course of action but to pretend its impossible is just dishonest cowardice. But what else would you expect from tories. That virtue isn't going to signal itself.
Who. after all, was a compromise in order to get Republican votes.
That's why the time was never right for us to join the Euro, but we now find ourselves out of the EU and heading for a thin trade deal at best.
Americans were not voting for the left, they narrowly voted to remove Trump, that was it, beyond that they want no further change and certainly no change to the cultural left
I mean don't get me wrong - I am no longer a member of the party but that is some tortuous logic.
Oh and where were you yesterday during the wet weather bike debate?
That's why the Aussies intercepted them in international waters not domestic waters.
Otherwise what's to stop us from rounding people up on the beach, then dumping them in international waters like you propose?