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The UK set to be the first where people are vaccinated – politicalbetting.com

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  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Thirty years ago today millions were celebrating as Thatcher resigned as PM.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,353

    TBH I don’t trust this Govt not to try to strongarm such organisations. Although in days gone past I knew members of MHRA committees etc and regarded them as incorruptible.
    So that's a no then. Really, if there was any evidence of that it'd be all over the news.
  • Good Try by Italy.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Gaussian said:

    It's certainly not looking good for them. They could be at three times the case numbers of the rest of the UK by mid December, with corresponding death numbers around New Year.

    Labour might have just lost the Senedd election in May.
    And of course they tried the "two week circuit breaker" method espoused by Keir Starmer.

    Which was clearly going to be ineffective as every other country that has tried this - cf Israel - has ended up either extending the two weeks or reverting to full lockdown soon after.

    Two weeks is not enough. Sadly

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,563
    Gaussian said:

    He risks a £30 level 3 travel restriction fine.
    What if he goes via Ullapool?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,281
    justin124 said:

    Thirty years ago today millions were celebrating as Thatcher resigned as PM.

    I was staying at the Guide Post Hotel in Bradford. It was a JFK moment in history for those of us who had never voted for her I daresay that was also true for those who had always voted for her too.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,937

    What if he goes via Ullapool?
    He will avoid it by going round Cape Horn.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    The reason is very simple. No one in England is interested in Wales.
    But even the Welsh don't seem interested in Wales. They consistently elect terrible Labour governments which are provably shite.

    Mind you, the other Celtic UK nation which avoided this, Scotland, has now gone on to consistently elect obviously shite SNP governments.

  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,926
    edited November 2020

    The people who deserve to be castigated are those who came up with the name 'circuit breaker' ** which gives the impression that it permanently stops the spread.
    I don't think I ever thought the name "circuit breaker" gave the impression it permanently stops the spread.

    Indeed I thought it was a very apt name for the problem behind it which was that yes when you activate the "circuit breaker" (lockdown or whatever) you temporarily slow or stop the spread but as soon as you stop the circuit breaker the circuit is complete again and the virus resumes its spread.

    In other words, it was a waste of time precisely because all it really did was buy you that couple of weeks without it solving anything.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012

    I was staying at the Guide Post Hotel in Bradford. It was a JFK moment in history for those of us who had never voted for her I daresay that was also true for those who had always voted for her too.
    Yes

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,563
    RobD said:

    So that's a no then. Really, if there was any evidence of that it'd be all over the news.
    I did say belt and braces. And this Govt. hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    dixiedean said:

    He will avoid it by going round Cape Horn.
    And round the Norway Maelstrom.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794
    LadyG said:

    But even the Welsh don't seem interested in Wales. They consistently elect terrible Labour governments which are provably shite.

    Mind you, the other Celtic UK nation which avoided this, Scotland, has now gone on to consistently elect obviously shite SNP governments.

    The only other celtic nation allowed to elect its own government
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    I don't think I ever thought the name "circuit breaker" gave the impression it permanently stops the spread.

    Indeed I thought it was a very apt name for the problem behind it which was that yes when you activate the "circuit breaker" (lockdown or whatever) you temporarily slow or stop the spread but as soon as you stop the circuit breaker the circuit is complete again and the virus resumes its spread.

    In other words, it was a waste of time precisely because all it really did was buy you that couple of weeks without it solving anything.
    It does buy more than the two weeks, as cases take time to go back up to the same level. Probably around six weeks altogether in the Welsh case.

    Nevertheless, consistent restrictions that are adjusted in smallish steps as necessary seem the better way.
  • LadyG said:

    But even the Welsh don't seem interested in Wales. They consistently elect terrible Labour governments which are provably shite.

    Mind you, the other Celtic UK nation which avoided this, Scotland, has now gone on to consistently elect obviously shite SNP governments.

    And then we come to England...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,353

    I did say belt and braces. And this Govt. hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory.
    What have belts and braces got to do with it? I don't see any evidence that the MHRA's independence has been interfered with. If there was one of the three I would be worried about, it'd be the FDA.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    Carnyx said:

    Well, it's not like hgim to be so quiet.

    That reminds me - I forgot to ask @DavidL if he is around, if he can point me to an explanation of the use of English law on treason and IIRC English judges and prosecutors for 'treason' committed in Scotland only in the 1790s and in the 1820 Rising, with trials in Edinburgh. I could never understand this, and the recent discussion of treason and sedition in Scotland has reminded me, so i f DavidL is in a kindly mood ...
    I know this is not directed at me, and I have no idea as to the reason for the use of English lawyers and judges, but I believe the answer to the question about treason laws and procedure is that prosecutions for treason since 1708 have been under the Treason Act of the same year that harmonised treason laws in the two jurisdictions after Union. Between 1708 and 1945 the Act also required the Scottish courts to try treason according to English rules of procedure (which may explain the use of barristers) but that section was repealed after WW2.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,926
    edited November 2020
    Gaussian said:

    It does buy more than the two weeks, as cases take time to go back up to the same level. Probably around six weeks altogether in the Welsh case.

    Nevertheless, consistent restrictions that are adjusted in smallish steps as necessary seem the better way.
    I seem to remember the Scottish Government and SAGE both saying it bought much less time than that, but I could be wrong. Anyway, the point was, I don't think anyone ever thought it was two weeks to stop the virus totally in its tracks. It was always a short-term temporary measure that would only buy so long.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,783
    edited November 2020
    Gaussian said:

    The lockdown worked fine. The big downslope on the green line here reflects the lockdown with about 10 days delay. The problem is what happened afterwards.

    image
    Surely what this data shows is that all four nations should have locked down to suppress the virus much earlier than they did, roughly once cases reached around 100 per 100,000 - which they all reached at roughly the same time. This would have been in the first week of October; SAGE recommended this on 21 September. There'd have been a much better chance of making track/trace/isolate work when cases were lower; by the time of lockdown, cases were too high so lockdown has to be longer. So Wales locked down too late, but England even later. Perhaps Starmer was right after all when he called for a circuit break on 13 October - though even that was a couple of weeks too late. Rather than gloating about Welsh woes, maybe a recognition of collective incompetence would be more accurate.
  • RobD said:

    .

    They don't have the numbers to vote it down, so it'll continue anyway.
    It's lockdown until Easter. End of story.
  • And then we come to England...
    The one part of the country which doesn’t elect its own government.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    And then we come to England...
    .... which has never been a Tory fiefdom the way Labour have run Wales (and used to run Scotland - until the SNP took over the job of massively mediocre, one-party-government)

    This is not healthy, even a Nat can see this.

    One of the few things that could persuade me that Scottish independence is a good thing would be the end of SNP hegemony. It really is a recipe for rank corruption and awful governance. The Nats are unchallenged, and any government should and must be challenged.

    There won't be a new indyref til past 2024, I hope in that time Scotland chooses against Indy, and the SNP fail. If the Scots don't rethink, then I sincerely hope the SNP wins the ensuing referendum then quickly shatters into pieces soon after, for the good of democracy up North

  • The one part of the country which doesn’t elect its own government.
    Was it a big boy who ran away that elected its current government?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,353

    It's lockdown until Easter. End of story.
    Of varying degrees, yes. I'm hopeful that as vaccine rollout continues the threshold for the various tiers can be raised.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    What percentage of the population need to be vaccinated to stop the spread of the virus?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,563
    RobD said:

    What have belts and braces got to do with it? I don't see any evidence that the MHRA's independence has been interfered with. If there was one of the three I would be worried about, it'd be the FDA.
    Have you not come across that phrase before? I do take your point, though about the FDA, although perhaps less now.. I’d just like two of the authorities to agree.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    RobD said:

    Of varying degrees, yes. I'm hopeful that as vaccine rollout continues the threshold for the various tiers can be raised.
    It is very bleak. London feels quite dystopian tonight
  • Was it a big boy who ran away that elected its current government?
    The whole country elected it, not just England.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    Andy_JS said:

    What percentage of the population need to be vaccinated to stop the spread of the virus?

    That depends on which percentage is vaccinated.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,468

    The one part of the country which doesn’t elect its own government.
    Oh rubbish - of course we do. You do too. The Westminster parliament is just the way it is to you and to me. It's good.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    geoffw said:

    That depends on which percentage is vaccinated.
    Which percentage would be the smallest bloc?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794
    Omnium said:

    Oh rubbish - of course we do. You do too. The Westminster parliament is just the way it is to you and to me. It's good.

    It might be good enough for you but then maybe you are just easily pleased
  • Omnium said:

    Oh rubbish - of course we do. You do too. The Westminster parliament is just the way it is to you and to me. It's good.

    I know we elected the government, it’s just that the we is the whole country, not just England.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    Andy_JS said:

    Which percentage would be the smallest bloc?
    Well if it's rolled out to those in care homes first that will have little effect on herd immunity. But IANAE
  • LadyG said:

    .... which has never been a Tory fiefdom the way Labour have run Wales (and used to run Scotland - until the SNP took over the job of massively mediocre, one-party-government)

    This is not healthy, even a Nat can see this.

    One of the few things that could persuade me that Scottish independence is a good thing would be the end of SNP hegemony. It really is a recipe for rank corruption and awful governance. The Nats are unchallenged, and any government should and must be challenged.

    There won't be a new indyref til past 2024, I hope in that time Scotland chooses against Indy, and the SNP fail. If the Scots don't rethink, then I sincerely hope the SNP wins the ensuing referendum then quickly shatters into pieces soon after, for the good of democracy up North

    If you lads broke the habit of a lifetime and thought about it for more than 10 seconds you would probably stop fixating on how crap/corrupt/awful/hegemonic you think the SNP is. The last 14 polls have put Yes ahead by up to 16 points, just think think what it would be if the SNP were just a little bit less crap/corrupt/awful/hegemonic.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,353

    Have you not come across that phrase before? I do take your point, though about the FDA, although perhaps less now.. I’d just like two of the authorities to agree.
    Yeah, that would be nice, but I don't see why the competence of the MHRA is currently in question. Is there any evidence at all that they are being pressured?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,667
    LadyG said:

    It is very bleak. London feels quite dystopian tonight
    You mean like the north in the 80s?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,525

    If you lads broke the habit of a lifetime and thought about it for more than 10 seconds you would probably stop fixating on how crap/corrupt/awful/hegemonic you think the SNP is. The last 14 polls have put Yes ahead by up to 16 points, just think think what it would be if the SNP were just a little bit less crap/corrupt/awful/hegemonic.
    Well - yes. Has it occurred to you that it might be 80/20 if any politician at Holyrood was capable of running a bath?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Yup, the story has that correction.

    But the broad scope of the tweet is right.
    It's hard to argue with the logic that with Independence commanding unprecedented polling numbers and the SNP the first choice of 50% of the population after 13 years in power what the party really needs is a new leader and a change of direction as it is clearly suffering under Sturgeon's alienating iron fist.

    And, given the charge from this who want change is that the SNP had focused too much on Brexit and not enough on Independence, who better to lead that change than an MP who *checks notes* lead a multi-year legal campaign trying to stymie Brexit?

    Hang on... Maybe something else is going on here.
  • I know we elected the government, it’s just that the we is the whole country, not just England.
    We're back to a country that is several countries again. Weirdly only one country out of four voted for the Tories to be the government, and lo and behold, guess which country got its heart's desire?
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    Surely what this data shows is that all four nations should have locked down to suppress the virus much earlier than they did, roughly once cases reached around 100 per 100,000 - which they all reached at roughly the same time. This would have been in the first week of October; SAGE recommended this on 21 September. There'd have been a much better chance of making track/trace/isolate work when cases were lower; by the time of lockdown, cases were too high so lockdown has to be longer. So Wales locked down too late, but England even later. Perhaps Starmer was right after all when he called for a circuit break on 13 October - though even that was a couple of weeks too late. Rather than gloating about Welsh woes, maybe a recognition of collective incompetence would be more accurate.
    I agree. Too late again, after March. Maybe they thought the test and trace would make more of a difference. But while the testing is much improved, the tracing looked ineffective throughout.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,468

    I know we elected the government, it’s just that the we is the whole country, not just England.
    We, the whole country, is what I care about. We, the whole country is what you care about, oddly I think that we, the whole country is what Nicola Sturgeon cares about.

    Tell me how that whole country should be!
  • I guess we have seen the end of Gove's dwindling leadership hopes today.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,525

    I guess we have seen the end of Gove's dwindling leadership hopes today.

    So it’s been a fantastic day for Britain.

    Good night.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,328
    edited November 2020
    ydoethur said:

    Well - yes. Has it occurred to you that it might be 80/20 if any politician at Holyrood was capable of running a bath?
    You worry about the pols you can elect or reject and I'll worry about the ones I can.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,828
    ydoethur said:

    Well - yes. Has it occurred to you that it might be 80/20 if any politician at Holyrood was capable of running a bath?
    Has there ever been a group of politicians anywhere in the world that you rated highly?
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    If you lads broke the habit of a lifetime and thought about it for more than 10 seconds you would probably stop fixating on how crap/corrupt/awful/hegemonic you think the SNP is. The last 14 polls have put Yes ahead by up to 16 points, just think think what it would be if the SNP were just a little bit less crap/corrupt/awful/hegemonic.
    Did I ever doubt that? Yes is on a roll. I believe if there was a referendum held in the next year Yes would likely win.

    But you don't have the power to call a vote. And with the polls so negative no Tory PM (indeed I think no UK PM, including Starmer) is ever going to allow a vote. I'm talking pragmatically, is all.

    The SNP has to stay wildly popular until 2024.
  • LadyG said:

    I'm talking pragmatically, is all.

    Lol
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,563
    Doesn’t add up to anywhere near 100 though. D/k’s, Greens, SNP, PC?
  • Scott_xP said:
    Surprising how unpopular the Christmas Truce is in that polling.

    Maybe, for all people are worried about the economic cost, they've got a better grip on the situation than the Conservative right, or the popular press?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    54 deaths in North Dakota today. On a per capita basis that's like the UK having around 4,000.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    Lol
    lol indeed

    Talk me through how the SNP practically - pragmatically - gets an indyref vote before 2024 and a UK GE. The more the polls look good for Yes the more the UK govt will grit its teeth against the risk. They have all learned from Cameron.
  • Omnium said:

    We, the whole country, is what I care about. We, the whole country is what you care about, oddly I think that we, the whole country is what Nicola Sturgeon cares about.

    Tell me how that whole country should be!
    The whole thing is a mess: devolution should have been symmetrical right from the start, with English, Welsh, Scottish, and Northern Irish parliaments all given the same powers. Then have Westminster looking after some taxation, defence, trade and foreign policy only. Let the nations look after everything else.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,563
    RobD said:

    Yeah, that would be nice, but I don't see why the competence of the MHRA is currently in question. Is there any evidence at all that they are being pressured?
    No. My concern is with the Govt.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    Surprising how unpopular the Christmas Truce is in that polling.

    Maybe, for all people are worried about the economic cost, they've got a better grip on the situation than the Conservative right, or the popular press?
    Everybody was secretly hoping for an excuse to abandon Christmas, just this once.

    Honestly, this idea that Christmas is popular is some bizarre delusion. Young people like the build-up to Xmas (the parties and shindigs - not happening). Old people like the chocolates. I suppose 7 year olds adore the presents but they can still happen.

    A lot of people will happily sacrifice a lovely family Xmas for proper freedom in mid-January
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,353

    No. My concern is with the Govt.
    Well then that isn't an issue, since they aren't the ones authorising the use of the vaccine.
  • Surprising how unpopular the Christmas Truce is in that polling.

    Maybe, for all people are worried about the economic cost, they've got a better grip on the situation than the Conservative right, or the popular press?
    :lol: The 'Save Xmas' policy has been a total disaster from the day Cummings and co started briefing favoured journalists back weeks ago, but now it turns out that the Great British Public don't want it.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817

    Surprising how unpopular the Christmas Truce is in that polling.

    Maybe, for all people are worried about the economic cost, they've got a better grip on the situation than the Conservative right, or the popular press?
    I think people understand that 5 days of freedom will result in a month of additional harsh tier 3 lockdown. I like the idea of a 4 day weekend with the late May bank holiday and essential delaying Xmas until then when we know the vaccine will be widely rolled out.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,563
    Goodnight, all!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    I think Johnson’s failure to effectively network in the Parliamentary party over many years is finally catching up with him. From what I hear, while clearly a very talented speaker and writer, he’s underwhelming to actually meet.
  • :lol: The 'Save Xmas' policy has been a total disaster from the day Cummings and co started briefing favoured journalists back weeks ago, but now it turns out that the Great British Public don't want it.

    If they really don’t want it then it won’t happen and there will not be the spike we all fear.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pagan2 said:

    I like the fact russian science is pragmatic. The usa spent millions developing a pen for the space program that could write in zero g....russian scientists said use a pencil
    And the Russians didn’t consider the damage that could be done by microscopic flakes of graphite from a pencil
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,468

    The whole thing is a mess: devolution should have been symmetrical right from the start, with English, Welsh, Scottish, and Northern Irish parliaments all given the same powers. Then have Westminster looking after some taxation, defence, trade and foreign policy only. Let the nations look after everything else.
    "The whole thing is a mess"

    Nailed it,

    It's still our country though - the UK. You seem to be Welsh - lets hear it as to how the UK works for you!

  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Scott_xP said:
    Now that’s a misleading, contradictory header. The biggest problem facing the country over the next five years will absolutely be economic rather than health. The problem over the next six months will certainly be a health issue and people seem to realise that with the 2/1 don’t save Christmas split. It’s like being in March ‘45 and asking if the biggest issue in the next five years will be the War or the reconstruction, then asking if we should stop making bullets tomorrow. People are bright enough to realise we need to tough it out until Easter and then we can start thinking about fixing the world. I’m cheered that 2/3 of people don’t support changing the restrictions, it suggests there might be less of a mad Christmas rush than I was concerned about.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    If they really don’t want it then it won’t happen and there will not be the spike we all fear.
    Yes, this is what will happen. People are frightened. They don't want to gather in multi-generational households, risking the lives of many. Christmas will cancel itself. This whole effort by HMG is pointless gesturing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,660
    edited November 2020
    Jacob Rees-Mogg is a Qu.. no wait he thinks he's the Queen.

    https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1332797810211778562

    Subjects!!
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108
    ydoethur said:

    Well - yes. Has it occurred to you that it might be 80/20 if any politician at Holyrood was capable of running a bath?
    A clear sign of just how much the SNP are now the establishment is the number of entryists with their own woke/gender reform /fringe agendas now bidding to become part of the party apparatus.
  • LadyG said:

    Everybody was secretly hoping for an excuse to abandon Christmas, just this once.

    Honestly, this idea that Christmas is popular is some bizarre delusion. Young people like the build-up to Xmas (the parties and shindigs - not happening). Old people like the chocolates. I suppose 7 year olds adore the presents but they can still happen.

    A lot of people will happily sacrifice a lovely family Xmas for proper freedom in mid-January
    You're probably right (and I say that having two middle sized children). Covid Christmas would have been odd, quiet but... somehow right for 2020.
    And we all know that we will pay for Christmas in January and February's Lockdown 3.

    Highlights a curious thing about this government. They have all the hallmarks of populists, but a remarkably tin ear for what the populi want a lot of the time.
  • Omnium said:

    "The whole thing is a mess"

    Nailed it,

    It's still our country though - the UK. You seem to be Welsh - lets hear it as to how the UK works for you!

    Two Welsh grandparents and a Scottish surname, but I was born in Devon.
  • Looks like the French have woken up.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    LadyG said:

    Everybody was secretly hoping for an excuse to abandon Christmas, just this once.

    Honestly, this idea that Christmas is popular is some bizarre delusion. Young people like the build-up to Xmas (the parties and shindigs - not happening). Old people like the chocolates. I suppose 7 year olds adore the presents but they can still happen.

    A lot of people will happily sacrifice a lovely family Xmas for proper freedom in mid-January
    I was wondering how many young Americans were using COVID as an excuse not to celebrate Thanksgiving with MAGA relatives. Christ if mine were spewing that shit I’d be doing a Goodbye Lenin and pretending Covid was a thing for at least the next ten years.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,103
    DougSeal said:

    I think Johnson’s failure to effectively network in the Parliamentary party over many years is finally catching up with him. From what I hear, while clearly a very talented speaker and writer, he’s underwhelming to actually meet.

    The "very talented speaker and writer" spin is under severe strain also.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    You're probably right (and I say that having two middle sized children). Covid Christmas would have been odd, quiet but... somehow right for 2020.
    And we all know that we will pay for Christmas in January and February's Lockdown 3.

    Highlights a curious thing about this government. They have all the hallmarks of populists, but a remarkably tin ear for what the populi want a lot of the time.
    Yes, they really don't get it. Too many London poshos who pretend to have the common touch. Same problem that afflicted Cameron.

    Labour is just as bad, but in a different, "progressive" way.

    They could all learn from the SNP (in this one instance). Sturgeon has an enviable ability to sound normal and sane and Everywoman, hence her popularity.
  • OnboardG1 said:

    I was wondering how many young Americans were using COVID as an excuse not to celebrate Thanksgiving with MAGA relatives. Christ if mine were spewing that shit I’d be doing a Goodbye Lenin and pretending Covid was a thing for at least the next ten years.
    The MAGA relatives probably don’t believe in Covid.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,468

    Jacob Rees-Mogg is a Qu.. no wait he thinks he's the Queen.

    https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1332797810211778562

    Subjects!!

    Crown subjects.

    Weird that Rees-Mogg should get it so wrong.

    Parliament's duty is to the Crown. The Crown's duty is to the people. (The latter bit is the unwritten bit)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    LadyG said:

    Did I ever doubt that? Yes is on a roll. I believe if there was a referendum held in the next year Yes would likely win.

    But you don't have the power to call a vote. And with the polls so negative no Tory PM (indeed I think no UK PM, including Starmer) is ever going to allow a vote. I'm talking pragmatically, is all.

    The SNP has to stay wildly popular until 2024.
    We haven't checked the legalities, though, to be more precise. Remember the shock on PB and elsewhere when Scots Law gave a different result on prorogation, and was of equal status to English Law. It does need to be done one waty or another.


  • Two Welsh grandparents and a Scottish surname, but I was born in Devon.

    Jam first. Tier one.
    Cream first. Tier two...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,094
    Pagan2 said:

    The only other celtic nation allowed to elect its own government
    Sean showing his true colours again or perhaps an early start.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DougSeal said:

    I think Johnson’s failure to effectively network in the Parliamentary party over many years is finally catching up with him. From what I hear, while clearly a very talented speaker and writer, he’s underwhelming to actually meet.

    " In a commonplace book the other day, I came across an observation made in 1750 by a contemporary savant, Bishop Berkeley: “It is impossible that a man who is false to his friends and neighbours should be true to the public.” Almost the only people who think Johnson a nice guy are those who do not know him."

    Max Hastings

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/24/boris-johnson-prime-minister-tory-party-britain

    The whole thing repays reading.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    LadyG said:

    .... which has never been a Tory fiefdom the way Labour have run Wales (and used to run Scotland - until the SNP took over the job of massively mediocre, one-party-government)

    This is not healthy, even a Nat can see this.

    One of the few things that could persuade me that Scottish independence is a good thing would be the end of SNP hegemony. It really is a recipe for rank corruption and awful governance. The Nats are unchallenged, and any government should and must be challenged.

    There won't be a new indyref til past 2024, I hope in that time Scotland chooses against Indy, and the SNP fail. If the Scots don't rethink, then I sincerely hope the SNP wins the ensuing referendum then quickly shatters into pieces soon after, for the good of democracy up North

    I don't think anyone but a party careerist would worry, or even expect, the SNP tio survive independence in its current form. Any more than the other, currently Britnat, parties.

    Incidentally, the SNP is of course a minority government at present. It's challenged all the time, by defintion.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    The whole thing is a mess: devolution should have been symmetrical right from the start, with English, Welsh, Scottish, and Northern Irish parliaments all given the same powers. Then have Westminster looking after some taxation, defence, trade and foreign policy only. Let the nations look after everything else.
    Instead of just tinkering around the edges of the constitution Blair should have completely overhauled it. Asymmetrical devolution, rebadging the Judicial Committee as the SC, nice ideas, but they created unintended conflicts.

    With respect to devolution, if federalism wasn’t an option, then a more radical approach, like devolving all but the reserved matters in the Scotland Act to Wales and NI as well as Scotland, a legislative grand committee of English MPs dealing with the same devolved matters (while Parliament as a whole dealt with finance and reserved matters) a new Westminster upper chamber with equal numbers of delegates from all four nations (who would each be responsible for the method of appointment). I’m sure that greater minds than mine could have done better than the above, but the tinkering, while well intentioned, has made matters worse.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Carnyx said:

    We haven't checked the legalities, though, to be more precise. Remember the shock on PB and elsewhere when Scots Law gave a different result on prorogation, and was of equal status to English Law. It does need to be done one waty or another.
    I will offer a wager of £100 that the UK Supreme Court, if it is so questioned, will accept that the right to offer a referendum on Scottish independence is explicitly reserved for Westminster (as it must be, logically, otherwise Holyrood could call a vote every week until the Nats win).

    The SNP's argument must surely be moral. If they get 50%+ of the votes and 50%+ of the seats and their mandate is for indyref two, then the moral argument will have some force.

    But it will not be critical. As long as the polls point to a break up of Britain, any British government will resist until all political force is gone (why should they agree if they are likely to lose?),. What then? I see a GE in 2024 with a reluctant Starmer PM granting a second plebiscite.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,094
    LadyG said:

    lol indeed

    Talk me through how the SNP practically - pragmatically - gets an indyref vote before 2024 and a UK GE. The more the polls look good for Yes the more the UK govt will grit its teeth against the risk. They have all learned from Cameron.
    oh dear
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    The whole thing is a mess: devolution should have been symmetrical right from the start, with English, Welsh, Scottish, and Northern Irish parliaments all given the same powers. Then have Westminster looking after some taxation, defence, trade and foreign policy only. Let the nations look after everything else.
    I agree completely. It's almost as if Blair wanted to annoy the English as much as possible with the way it was done in 1997.
  • LadyG said:

    Yes, this is what will happen. People are frightened. They don't want to gather in multi-generational households, risking the lives of many. Christmas will cancel itself. This whole effort by HMG is pointless gesturing.
    A grow-up HMG would have said it will not be illegal to gather at Xmas in households, but we strongly advise against it.

    Instead we have this pathetic attempt to curry populist favour for Lockdown 2.0 by promising all sorts of crap by Xmas and then panicking when they realise the railway system wont cope and there will have to be Lockdown 3.0 to clear up the mess.
  • DougSeal said:

    Instead of just tinkering around the edges of the constitution Blair should have completely overhauled it. Asymmetrical devolution, rebadging the Judicial Committee as the SC, nice ideas, but they created unintended conflicts.

    With respect to devolution, if federalism wasn’t an option, then a more radical approach, like devolving all but the reserved matters in the Scotland Act to Wales and NI as well as Scotland, a legislative grand committee of English MPs dealing with the same devolved matters (while Parliament as a whole dealt with finance and reserved matters) a new Westminster upper chamber with equal numbers of delegates from all four nations (who would each be responsible for the method of appointment). I’m sure that greater minds than mine could have done better than the above, but the tinkering, while well intentioned, has made matters worse.
    Yes. Blair decided that the correct answer to the West-Lothian question was to ignore it.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    A grow-up HMG would have said it will not be illegal to gather at Xmas in households, but we strongly advise against it.

    Instead we have this pathetic attempt to curry populist favour for Lockdown 2.0 by promising all sorts of crap by Xmas and then panicking when they realise the railway system wont cope and there will have to be Lockdown 3.0 to clear up the mess.
    It is inept.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    DougSeal said:

    Instead of just tinkering around the edges of the constitution Blair should have completely overhauled it. Asymmetrical devolution, rebadging the Judicial Committee as the SC, nice ideas, but they created unintended conflicts.

    With respect to devolution, if federalism wasn’t an option, then a more radical approach, like devolving all but the reserved matters in the Scotland Act to Wales and NI as well as Scotland, a legislative grand committee of English MPs dealing with the same devolved matters (while Parliament as a whole dealt with finance and reserved matters) a new Westminster upper chamber with equal numbers of delegates from all four nations (who would each be responsible for the method of appointment). I’m sure that greater minds than mine could have done better than the above, but the tinkering, while well intentioned, has made matters worse.
    The legislative grand committee for England already exists de facto with EVEL, does it not?
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Andy_JS said:

    I agree completely. It's almost as if Blair wanted to annoy the English as much as possible with the way it was done in 1997.
    The North East Assembly was meant to be the first step in that, but a certain eggheaded weirdo spent a lot of time organising a campaign to convince people that their interests were best served by people 300 miles away who never liked them. Which has a certain irony about it.
  • LadyG said:

    Yes, they really don't get it. Too many London poshos who pretend to have the common touch. Same problem that afflicted Cameron.

    Labour is just as bad, but in a different, "progressive" way.

    They could all learn from the SNP (in this one instance). Sturgeon has an enviable ability to sound normal and sane and Everywoman, hence her popularity.
    Though it's worse now than under Cameron.
    Dave was posh, didn't hide it, and just had an awkward sense of Lord Grantham at the parish Harvest Supper.
    Whereas a lot of the key players in this government have a strong sense of trying to be something they're not.
    Boris, obviously. Gove, convolutedly (and I recognise that he has a story that is hard for him, and makes that hard to shake off). JRM, absurdly. Even young Rishi.
    It's odd, and it can't be good for them.
This discussion has been closed.