Hatchings, Matchings and Dispatchings. – politicalbetting.com

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stuartinromford said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sandpit said:

felix said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.

Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298

Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view

In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.

A sound Chancellor would cut the deficit in ways that least hurt the domestic economy.

Cutting the aid budget is very sound economics. Which is why no other developed nation wastes as much as we do. Why do we waste more of our own money than anyone else like that?

Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Denmark.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Gate, I can see why you might think an excessive mentioning of a topic irritating, but why despicable?

Gallowgate said:

FPT

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

Stop ramping your stupid culture war.

LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.

Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.

The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.

You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.

I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.

I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kle4 said:

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stuartinromford said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sandpit said:

felix said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.

Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298

Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view

In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.

A sound Chancellor would cut the deficit in ways that least hurt the domestic economy.

Cutting the aid budget is very sound economics. Which is why no other developed nation wastes as much as we do. Why do we waste more of our own money than anyone else like that?

Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Denmark.

Very few others indeed. Not in itself a reason to do the same and cut, but its worth noting.

Stuartinromford said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sandpit said:

felix said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.

Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298

Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view

In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.

It's a fair point. I'm in favour of it in principle but there are reasoned arguments to reduce or even eliminate, though the latter in particular many would object to. But the arguments should be on the reality not coast on misconceptions. But that is how many changes get through eg on legal aid apparently.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/bbckirstenc/status/1331887609010941954?s=20

Shows how out of touch they are if they think the average family home can accommodate eight adults enjoying Christmas Dinner together, two metres apart.

I rather think that's just looking to take offence at what is said. More likely they are facing the inherent contradictions with the advice on distancing and the Xmas relaxation.

I don't ever take offence at anything this government does, because I don't expect anything better from them.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Gate, aye. The likes of BLM and their brand of divisive bullshit should absolutely be rejected.

Gallowgate said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Gate, I can see why you might think an excessive mentioning of a topic irritating, but why despicable?

Because it's driving the country apart. We don't want what's happening in America to happen here.

Stuartinromford said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.

Is it still the case that, left to its own devices, the triple lock will bump pensions up by about 10-20 % over the next couple of years (pensions go up by 2.5 % this year, even though wages have gone down a lot; they then go up by lots of % next year when wages recover)? That surely needs to be overridden.

But more generally, a pensions squeeze would hit Boris's core vote. I don't think he enjoys hitting his core vote. I also think Boris works quite hard to avoid doing things he doesn't enjoy.

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

FPT

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

Stop ramping your stupid culture war.

LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.

Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.

The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.

You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.

I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.

I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.

Despicable? LOL, you’re free to think that if you like.

I’m simply making the point that many people in politics and media are utterly disconnected from large parts of the country, and that taking £4bn from the overseas aid budget and giving it to small local projects is the single most popular policy the government is enacting - even if all the talking heads on TV think it’s a horrible thing to do.

Yes and your point is right. Many people in politics and the media ARE utterly disconnected from large parts of the country. Very few people are disputing that.

However if you go about it in a "lol look at those metropolitan liberal scum again" kind of way then expect push back.

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Gate, I can see why you might think an excessive mentioning of a topic irritating, but why despicable?

Because it's driving the country apart. We don't want what's happening in America to happen here.

Which is why I’m completely and utterly opposed to it.

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

FPT

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

Stop ramping your stupid culture war.

LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.

Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.

The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.

You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.

I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.

I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.

Despicable? LOL, you’re free to think that if you like.

I’m simply making the point that many people in politics and media are utterly disconnected from large parts of the country, and that taking £4bn from the overseas aid budget and giving it to small local projects is the single most popular policy the government is enacting - even if all the talking heads on TV think it’s a horrible thing to do.

Yes and your point is right. Many people in politics and the media ARE utterly disconnected from large parts of the country. Very few people are disputing that.

However if you go about it in a "lol look at those metropolitan liberal scum again" kind of way then expect push back.

Stuartinromford said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.

Is it still the case that, left to its own devices, the triple lock will bump pensions up by about 10-20 % over the next couple of years (pensions go up by 2.5 % this year, even though wages have gone down a lot; they then go up by lots of % next year when wages recover)? That surely needs to be overridden.

But more generally, a pensions squeeze would hit Boris's core vote. I don't think he enjoys hitting his core vote. I also think Boris works quite hard to avoid doing things he doesn't enjoy.

Philip_Thompson said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kle4 said:

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stuartinromford said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sandpit said:

felix said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.

Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298

Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view

In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.

A sound Chancellor would cut the deficit in ways that least hurt the domestic economy.

Cutting the aid budget is very sound economics. Which is why no other developed nation wastes as much as we do. Why do we waste more of our own money than anyone else like that?

Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Denmark.

Very few others indeed. Not in itself a reason to do the same and cut, but its worth noting.

Stuartinromford said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sandpit said:

felix said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.

Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298

Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view

In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.

It's a fair point. I'm in favour of it in principle but there are reasoned arguments to reduce or even eliminate, though the latter in particular many would object to. But the arguments should be on the reality not coast on misconceptions. But that is how many changes get through eg on legal aid apparently.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/bbckirstenc/status/1331887609010941954?s=20

Shows how out of touch they are if they think the average family home can accommodate eight adults enjoying Christmas Dinner together, two metres apart.

I rather think that's just looking to take offence at what is said. More likely they are facing the inherent contradictions with the advice on distancing and the Xmas relaxation.

I don't ever take offence at anything this government does, because I don't expect anything better from them.

Do you agree that there is a major deficit currently? And forecast for years in the future?

Do you think that is a problem?

Do you agree that addressing the deficit in ways that minimise the impact on economic growth is the right thing to do?

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stuartinromford said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sandpit said:

felix said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.

Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298

Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view

In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.

A sound Chancellor would cut the deficit in ways that least hurt the domestic economy.

Cutting the aid budget is very sound economics. Which is why no other developed nation wastes as much as we do. Why do we waste more of our own money than anyone else like that?

Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Denmark.

I missed the word major sorry. So you've only got a microstate and tiny Scandinavian countries. No comparable major economies quite clearly.

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.

There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.

HYUFD said:

I expect a post vaccine baby boom

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

FPT

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

Stop ramping your stupid culture war.

LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.

Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.

The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.

You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.

I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.

I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.

Despicable? LOL, you’re free to think that if you like.

I’m simply making the point that many people in politics and media are utterly disconnected from large parts of the country, and that taking £4bn from the overseas aid budget and giving it to small local projects is the single most popular policy the government is enacting - even if all the talking heads on TV think it’s a horrible thing to do.

Yes and your point is right. Many people in politics and the media ARE utterly disconnected from large parts of the country. Very few people are disputing that.

However if you go about it in a "lol look at those metropolitan liberal scum again" kind of way then expect push back.

That’s not what I said. I said that the talking heads in the media need to get their metropolitan liberal heads around the fact they they’re totally out of touch with the country on things like overseas aid. In polite language, unlike yours.

It's not polite. Just because the media happens to be metropolitan liberals does not mean all metropolitan liberals are out of touch. You're doing the culture war thing of "us" vs "metropolitan liberals" - them.

And of course in your head I'm sure all metropolitan liberals vote Remain and Labour and are thus the "enemy"?

Pure culture war-ism and nothing else.

Okay fine, I’ll let you continue to think that. I’m sure the rest of PB has little interest in our discussion.

LostPassword said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.

There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.

Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.

eek said:

HYUFD said:

I expect a post vaccine baby boom

I don't - a lot of people can't see the point in having children when they are not in complete control of their destiny.

And that will only occur when housing is affordable.

HYUFD said:

I expect a post vaccine baby boom

HYUFD said:

I expect a post vaccine baby boom

BluestBlue said:

Gallowgate said:

FPT

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

Stop ramping your stupid culture war.

LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.

Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.

The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.

You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.

I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.

I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.

Meanwhile, back in 1939....

UK: 'I say, your subjugation of Poland could be considered a bit much. Would you mind backing off and returning to normal, civilized behaviour'?

Germany: 'How very despicable of you to point that out! Now we will do it more!'

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

LostPassword said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.

There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.

Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.

Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.

I am shocked that you and Boris Johnson have the same view on this.
FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.

Andy_Cooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Turns out the BBC were right to report that the Oxford Vaccine was 70% effective.

GDBO, they've misled the country and the world, shame on them for raising the hopes of a nation.

Hah! You'll be a vaccine refusnik then next year when the Oxford vaccine is rolled out?

I'm already looking at buying the Moderna/Pfizer vaccines.

Is it excessively cynical for me to be wondering if that is the entire point of the article?

noneoftheabove said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stuartinromford said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.

Is it still the case that, left to its own devices, the triple lock will bump pensions up by about 10-20 % over the next couple of years (pensions go up by 2.5 % this year, even though wages have gone down a lot; they then go up by lots of % next year when wages recover)? That surely needs to be overridden.

But more generally, a pensions squeeze would hit Boris's core vote. I don't think he enjoys hitting his core vote. I also think Boris works quite hard to avoid doing things he doesn't enjoy.

The first point absolutely needs fixing, 100% definitely.

I wonder whether its possible to come up with a technical fix to change the uprating to be based on averages looking over a few years? It would still be 2.5% then but won't be insanely high.

The government could reasonably say that the triple lock has survived but the "technical" correction would remove that anomaly.

How long do supporters of the triple lock want to keep it going? Soon pension spending will overtake health, it only takes a few decades of the triple lock and the population changes Foxy has outline for it to become half of govt spending, then a few more before it consumes all government spending.

Giving an ever increasing share of a pie to one group is just crazy and by definition eventually results in the whole pie going to the one group.

noneoftheabove said:

kjh said:

Stuartinromford said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.

Is it still the case that, left to its own devices, the triple lock will bump pensions up by about 10-20 % over the next couple of years (pensions go up by 2.5 % this year, even though wages have gone down a lot; they then go up by lots of % next year when wages recover)? That surely needs to be overridden.

But more generally, a pensions squeeze would hit Boris's core vote. I don't think he enjoys hitting his core vote. I also think Boris works quite hard to avoid doing things he doesn't enjoy.

Ignoring both the political and national financial reasons for the moment (I know, I've just thrown 99% of the reasons out of the window) surely the reason for the triple lock is to bring our state pension to a more acceptable level and to remove those without other means from poverty and relying on other benefits and doing it in a controlled gradual way. Until that is achieved it shouldn't be removed.

Of course I have ignored a few minor points like a pandemic, Brexit and removing it might cost Boris a lot of votes. But other than that......

But even that argument doesnt stand up to scrutiny. If it is about avoiding poverty, give the increases to the poorer groups in society regardless of age, pensioners are already (on average, of course not all of them) the richest age cohort.

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

LostPassword said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.

There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.

Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.

Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.

I am shocked that you and Boris Johnson have the same view on this.
FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.

Just want to add that our view (a Japanese bank) is even more pessimistic than the OBR. We think their forecasts on unemployment are far too optimistic and this is going to result in a longer period of recovery. The 3% scarring figure looks a bit optimistic as well because of the former.

I went through the rest of the reasoning for the pessimistic outlook yesterday and the OBR has got the post virus trend at 2% and deal/no deal whatever it is I don't see how that's possible, our trend is going to be much closer to 1.5% which around where we have it.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kle4 said:

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stuartinromford said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sandpit said:

felix said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.

Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298

Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view

In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.

A sound Chancellor would cut the deficit in ways that least hurt the domestic economy.

Cutting the aid budget is very sound economics. Which is why no other developed nation wastes as much as we do. Why do we waste more of our own money than anyone else like that?

Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Denmark.

Very few others indeed. Not in itself a reason to do the same and cut, but its worth noting.

Stuartinromford said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sandpit said:

felix said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.

Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298

Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view

In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.

It's a fair point. I'm in favour of it in principle but there are reasoned arguments to reduce or even eliminate, though the latter in particular many would object to. But the arguments should be on the reality not coast on misconceptions. But that is how many changes get through eg on legal aid apparently.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/bbckirstenc/status/1331887609010941954?s=20

Shows how out of touch they are if they think the average family home can accommodate eight adults enjoying Christmas Dinner together, two metres apart.

I rather think that's just looking to take offence at what is said. More likely they are facing the inherent contradictions with the advice on distancing and the Xmas relaxation.

I don't ever take offence at anything this government does, because I don't expect anything better from them.

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

LostPassword said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.

There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.

Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.

Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.

I am shocked that you and Boris Johnson have the same view on this.
FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.

Just want to add that our view (a Japanese bank) is even more pessimistic than the OBR. We think their forecasts on unemployment are far too optimistic and this is going to result in a longer period of recovery. The 3% scarring figure looks a bit optimistic as well because of the former.

I went through the rest of the reasoning for the pessimistic outlook yesterday and the OBR has got the post virus trend at 2% and deal/no deal whatever it is I don't see how that's possible, our trend is going to be much closer to 1.5% which around where we have it.

eek said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:

I expect a post vaccine baby boom

I don't - a lot of people can't see the point in having children when they are not in complete control of their destiny.

And that will only occur when housing is affordable.

It is affordable enough most people have still bought a property by 40 and Covid is already seeing house and flat prices fall in urban and suburban areas, only rising still in rural areas for detached houses but it is the former where most buy starter properties, the latter they only buy once their families are established

By 40 - I bought my first house aged 24.

That shows how much things have changed and how screwed things have become in the past 25 years.

Also by 40 you really should have had children otherwise you are creating a complete set of other issues.

BluestBlue said:

Gallowgate said:

BluestBlue said:

Gallowgate said:

FPT

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

Stop ramping your stupid culture war.

LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.

Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.

The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.

You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.

I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.

I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.

Meanwhile, back in 1939....

UK: 'I say, your subjugation of Poland could be considered a bit much. Would you mind backing off and returning to normal, civilized behaviour'?

Germany: 'How very despicable of you to point that out! Now we will do it more!'

What exactly are you equating to the Nazis?

I'm saying that in the culture war the left has been driving their tanks all over us for decades, claiming more and more territory. Only now, when the right has just started to push back a little, they're losing their shit at the idea that they will no longer go unchallenged in the space they have dominated for so long, and where even after all their advances they're still not happy with what they've got.

kle4 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kle4 said:

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stuartinromford said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sandpit said:

felix said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.

Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298

Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view

In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.

A sound Chancellor would cut the deficit in ways that least hurt the domestic economy.

Cutting the aid budget is very sound economics. Which is why no other developed nation wastes as much as we do. Why do we waste more of our own money than anyone else like that?

Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Denmark.

Very few others indeed. Not in itself a reason to do the same and cut, but its worth noting.

Stuartinromford said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Sandpit said:

felix said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I wonder what those who have seen their pay frozen or cut or even jobs lost think about politicians more concerned about our foreign aid being reduced than they seem to be concerned about people's wages or jobs?

The chattering classes are going off the rails again ever more stridently as the polls steadfastly refuse to reflect thier views. They really never learn.

Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1331650556566368258
https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1331703683378188298

Since the public are always right about everything I look forward to the Tories announcing plans to nationalise the utilities, train companies and Royal mail.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view

In that context, it's worth noting that the public understanding of how much the UK spends on Foreign Aid overestimates the spending by a factor of ten.

https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/budgets/gb2018/GB8.pdf

A statesman would seek to correct the misconception. A coward would run with it.

It's a fair point. I'm in favour of it in principle but there are reasoned arguments to reduce or even eliminate, though the latter in particular many would object to. But the arguments should be on the reality not coast on misconceptions. But that is how many changes get through eg on legal aid apparently.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/bbckirstenc/status/1331887609010941954?s=20

Shows how out of touch they are if they think the average family home can accommodate eight adults enjoying Christmas Dinner together, two metres apart.

I rather think that's just looking to take offence at what is said. More likely they are facing the inherent contradictions with the advice on distancing and the Xmas relaxation.

I don't ever take offence at anything this government does, because I don't expect anything better from them.

The point was it's a bit of a stretch to interpret the comment as assuming everyone has giant homes when more likely its the result if a mishmash of advice and measures. You clearly do expect something from them as you invented a motive behind their comment when alternatives do exist.

Philip_Thompson said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

LostPassword said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.

There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.

Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.

Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.

I am shocked that you and Boris Johnson have the same view on this.
FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.

Why shouldn't we have the same view on this?

Incidentally I've been sharing my view here since before he did so I'm not parroting him, I'd already put my flag out there.

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

LostPassword said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.

There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.

Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.

Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.

I am shocked that you and Boris Johnson have the same view on this.
FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.

Just want to add that our view (a Japanese bank) is even more pessimistic than the OBR. We think their forecasts on unemployment are far too optimistic and this is going to result in a longer period of recovery. The 3% scarring figure looks a bit optimistic as well because of the former.

I went through the rest of the reasoning for the pessimistic outlook yesterday and the OBR has got the post virus trend at 2% and deal/no deal whatever it is I don't see how that's possible, our trend is going to be much closer to 1.5% which around where we have it.

The reason I'm more optimistic is I think there has been an absence of innovation or productivity growth for years. Necessity is the mother of invention and there have been a lot of necessary productivity improvements this year adopted that should be able to carry forwards into the future once we put the virus behind us.

Plus many [by no means all] of the businesses that die during this recession will be the weakest and least productive, thus a very harsh survival of the fittest will happen here.

I would expect the post virus trend to be 2.5% as a result.

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

LostPassword said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.

There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.

Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.

Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.

I am shocked that you and Boris Johnson have the same view on this.
FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.

Just want to add that our view (a Japanese bank) is even more pessimistic than the OBR. We think their forecasts on unemployment are far too optimistic and this is going to result in a longer period of recovery. The 3% scarring figure looks a bit optimistic as well because of the former.

I went through the rest of the reasoning for the pessimistic outlook yesterday and the OBR has got the post virus trend at 2% and deal/no deal whatever it is I don't see how that's possible, our trend is going to be much closer to 1.5% which around where we have it.

The reason I'm more optimistic is I think there has been an absence of innovation or productivity growth for years. Necessity is the mother of invention and there have been a lot of necessary productivity improvements this year adopted that should be able to carry forwards into the future once we put the virus behind us.

Plus many [by no means all] of the businesses that die during this recession will be the weakest and least productive, thus a very harsh survival of the fittest will happen here.

I would expect the post virus trend to be 2.5% as a result.

I just don't see how we get from here to there. Our industries have had decades of underinvestment by short termist management who only care about their annual bonus. The same managers who have sacrificed investment in favour of the bonus pool aren't suddenly going to change their ways.

Gallowgate said:

BluestBlue said:

Gallowgate said:

BluestBlue said:

Gallowgate said:

FPT

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

Sandpit said:

Here’s some polling for them to get their metropolitan liberal heads around:

Don't be such a tit. The government is full of "metropolitan liberals". The Prime Minister is one of them for goodness sake.

Stop ramping your stupid culture war.

LOL. One poll shows 66/18 and the other 59/17 in favour of cutting the aid budget.

Dare I suggest that a poll asking the same question in marginal seats in the Midlands and North might be even more in favour of the cuts.

It’s something that only rich metropolitan types, operating at the top of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, care about. The rest of the country thinks that such money is better spent domestically at a time of crisis - especially when it’s borrowed money that your generation will have to pay back.

Rich metropolitan types like uh, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak? Get a grip man.

No one is doubting the polling that the country is in favour of the policy - of course they are. What point are you trying to make?

Other than an opportunity to get a snide culture war reference in, of course.

The only people pushing the Culture War narrative are the left.

My point is that everyone in politics and media is talking about this and almost nothing else this morning, while most of the country are laughing at them and supporting the government.

You push the Culture War narrative constantly. Ergo your post is total bollocks.

I believe in freedom of speech, if that’s what you mean.

The post is total truth, cutting state aid is the single most popular policy this government is enacting. Too many in the media never speak to people who don’t live in Islington.

I also believe in freedom of speech. I also agree that cutting the aid budget is very popular. So what is your point?

You still push the culture war narrative constantly, in almost all of your posts. It's pretty despicable really.

Meanwhile, back in 1939....

UK: 'I say, your subjugation of Poland could be considered a bit much. Would you mind backing off and returning to normal, civilized behaviour'?

Germany: 'How very despicable of you to point that out! Now we will do it more!'

What exactly are you equating to the Nazis?

I'm saying that in the culture war the left has been driving their tanks all over us for decades, claiming more and more territory. Only now, when the right has just started to push back a little, they're losing their shit at the idea that they will no longer go unchallenged in the space they have dominated for so long, and where even after all their advances they're still not happy with what they've got.

That's quite the hysterical take.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

LostPassword said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.

There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.

Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.

Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.

I am shocked that you and Boris Johnson have the same view on this.
FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.

Just want to add that our view (a Japanese bank) is even more pessimistic than the OBR. We think their forecasts on unemployment are far too optimistic and this is going to result in a longer period of recovery. The 3% scarring figure looks a bit optimistic as well because of the former.

I went through the rest of the reasoning for the pessimistic outlook yesterday and the OBR has got the post virus trend at 2% and deal/no deal whatever it is I don't see how that's possible, our trend is going to be much closer to 1.5% which around where we have it.

Agreed on the second point. The UK labour market does have a good track record of recovering quickly from shocks (probably by creating too many low paid jobs, but still) so they may be right on that. The worry I have is that the forecasts don't yet incorporate any serious austerity measures, because the government hasn't announced them yet. Once that happens I think the risk is repeated growth disappointment like in 2010-13.
Having once discussed the growth outlook with Boris Johnson I can tell you that he really *believes* that it will be great, but that the economic knowledge or analysis underlying that view is precisely zero.

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

LostPassword said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

Surely if ever there was a moment when HMG could escape the chains of the triple-lock it is now. I cannot think there are many beneficiaries who would object loudly.

Oh I think you'd be wrong about that. Itd be the WASPI women times 100 probably.

But you're right if ever there was a moment to justify it itd be now. But the opposition would oppose it and Boris would get scared of a polling hit.

There’s some almighty rows coming down the line, once the recession is over and the extraordinary spending has to be paid for.

Look at the row over £4bn of the aid budget, which is not even 2% of what’s been borrowed this year. There’s going to have to be tens of billions of spending cuts, and many more cuts by fiscal drag - starting with pensions.

Not so sure about that. Tax receipts are down only by £57bn - and some of that will be due to temporary policy decisions such as on Business Rates. The vast majority of the increase in the deficit is due to exceptional spending items - furlough, testing, etc.

In 2021 we all get vaccinated, the exceptional spending items come to an end, by 2022 the economy has largely recovered. The increase in the deficit on 2019 will then only be that created by increases in Departmental spending for three years while the economy took a detour.

It might not be that bad. And, Brexit permitting, it could even be better than that. There's a fair bit of extra personal savings that could be spent. Inflation could well become a topic of conversation again - and a modest, temporary dose might go some way to eroding the deficit.

Indeed I am hopeful that the OBR have been overly pessimistic in their data. Which is sort of their job under the circumstances and hopefully means in future budgets the bar has been set so low this time that it will be easier to clear it year on year and get back to some fiscal sanity.

Wherever possible to close the deficit without harming the economy needs to be done though. Tax rises and spending cuts both harm the economy normally, there's very few exceptions to that.

I am shocked that you and Boris Johnson have the same view on this.
FWIW Bloomberg consensus forecasts of UK GDP growth are - 11.0% this year and +5.4% in 2021, versus the OBR's -11.3% and +5.5%. So if you and BJ are right then you will certainly turn out to be a lot smarter than all these people who produce economic forecasts for a living.

Just want to add that our view (a Japanese bank) is even more pessimistic than the OBR. We think their forecasts on unemployment are far too optimistic and this is going to result in a longer period of recovery. The 3% scarring figure looks a bit optimistic as well because of the former.

I went through the rest of the reasoning for the pessimistic outlook yesterday and the OBR has got the post virus trend at 2% and deal/no deal whatever it is I don't see how that's possible, our trend is going to be much closer to 1.5% which around where we have it.

The reason I'm more optimistic is I think there has been an absence of innovation or productivity growth for years. Necessity is the mother of invention and there have been a lot of necessary productivity improvements this year adopted that should be able to carry forwards into the future once we put the virus behind us.

Plus many [by no means all] of the businesses that die during this recession will be the weakest and least productive, thus a very harsh survival of the fittest will happen here.

I would expect the post virus trend to be 2.5% as a result.

I just don't see how we get from here to there. Our industries have had decades of underinvestment by short termist management who only care about their annual bonus. The same managers who have sacrificed investment in favour of the bonus pool aren't suddenly going to change their ways.