What’s Trump really up to? – politicalbetting.com
What’s Trump really up to? – politicalbetting.com
I think this analysis is on the right tracks. What must be dominating Trump’s mind at the moment is the possibility of facing criminal charges after the new President has been sworn in at 0900 Washington time on January 20th.
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Has any hypothesis been given why the low / high doses regime worked better?
"The terms of the President and Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January, and the terms of Senators and Representatives at noon on the 3d day of January, of the years in which such terms would have ended if this article had not been ratified; and the terms of their successors shall then begin."
Trump will be wary of facing Sarkozy's fate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55015479
It's the kind of thing that matches his stupidity - and is the kind of thing that crappy books on being a "winner" have in them......
Happily such things could never happen here with a British leader.
Biden 1.04
Democrats 1.04
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.04
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.04
Trump ECV 210-239 1.07
Biden ECV 300-329 1.07
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.04
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.06
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.02
AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.04
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.04
PA Dem 1.03
WI Dem 1.04
Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.09
Trump exit date 2021 1.08
https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1330808028417953793?s=20
It may also mean that the Oxford vaccine is not suitable for future years' "booster" shots. I've been hoping to speak to an vaccine expert to ask them this very question, but not had a chance yet.
PS: some of the statistics discussion on the last thread was kind of... completely off base. But I have real students' work to mark, so I'll leave you to your binomials. Have fun!
--AS
It would be spectacular if the FBI were waiting for the moment he drives off Federal property to arrest him. However, just like Corbyn I am sure that His followers will never believe that He has done anything wrong.
Frum also said the idea that Trump, a creator of a series of failed businesses, would have the nous and organisational ability to start his own media company, is laughable. All in all, a satisfyingly bitchy 5-10 minutes.
The repetitional damage has been done, and ignoring malfeasance would make it worse.
Pardons for New York state prosecutions cannot be included in any event.
You have an opinion of sorts
He/She is talking bollocks
To explain the reason why statisticians insist that you need to decide what you're going to measure first is that if you look at several samples with an open mind (which sounds a good thing, but read on...) and then seize on whichever happens to be the best one, you increase the risk of being misled by random variation around the true average. There are statistical methods for allowing for that, as I recall (It's a while since I studied!), and it would be important to see the full results to see if they've been applied.
Remember we do have a lot of Pfizer vaccine coming in, and preparations for delivering it to the vaccination centres are under way. So the right answer may be to give that to the most vulnerable, and the Oxford vaccine to everyone else. What we emphatically should NOT do is fall in love with one or another method for political or nationalist reasons, or allow politicians to do so. This is really does need to be science-led.
It's remarkable how some people like Andrew Adonis keep failing to realise this.
Perhaps that's partly deliberate, even if at a sub-conscious level, because he'd far prefer it to be about the money otherwise he'd have to accept engaging with the difficult socio-cultural issues it throws up.
An innocent man would say "no need, but thanks".
He will probably be acquitted on the basis that corruption and influence-peddling are mandatory aspects of the role.
This guy is a virologist.
https://twitter.com/_b_meyer/status/1330782510763151360
Perhaps the lower initial dose means such an unuseful immune response to the vector is less likely against the booster shot.
--AS
I really dislike the expression "gold standard" for just that reason.
Its application to PCR tests for coronavirus is probably one of the reasons politicians were so slow to fund mass antigen testing.
https://twitter.com/ACurrentAffair9/status/1330788260856131584?s=20
Who I suspect wouldn't be sold on the idea any more than I am.
Some people always dislike social change, but it all gets supercharged when the economy is in the shit. I mean, there was far more cultural change in the 1960s than now, and you didn't have the same kind of angry populist BS you have now because people thought that things were getting better overall.
You now have rising "deaths of despair" on both sides of the Atlantic. People aren't killing themselves with booze and pills because of transgender bathrooms or brown people or whatever else your oblique reference to "difficult socio cultural issues" is referring to.
However I imagine Trump would do his best to tie the court up in procedural motions for the rest of his life so they'd never actually get to pass a verdict...
Also, seems very poor science from Pfizer not to have measured this, given we know asymptomatic covid is a big thing.
Not quite the same thing, of course.
Question is, how do we in Britain provide that? We do not have a national identity database to which vaccination status can be added. Is HMG working on fudged up bits of paper, and can we trust them not to build it into an ID database on the sly?
It’ll be like getting your typhoid/tetanus/cholera jabs when going to Africa or South America now, you’ll get a Covid jab before going to Australia or NZ.
https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1330813818168029184?s=20
From the beginning, our goal has been to identify a solution to the pandemic in an affordable and accessible vaccine that would benefit rich and poor in all parts of the globe. Our agreement with AstraZeneca will make the vaccine available on a not-for-profit basis during the pandemic and in perpetuity to low- and middle-income countries.
email from Professor Louise Richardson, Vice-Chancellor, Oxford University
It got Reagan re-elected governor of California, and eventually President.
(edit)
Here's the Pfizer protocol. If you look at page 18, you'll see they swab when the participant is dosed, and subsequently only if and when they report symptoms.
https://pfe-pfizercom-d8-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/2020-09/C4591001_Clinical_Protocol.pdf
Months we no longer have since the intention is to start using the vaccine pretty much immediately and have it largely completed by Easter?
(Actually, I'm pretty sure he's joking....as am I)
According to someone I know in the trial: "Every effing Wednesday..."
Additionally we have 40m doses of the Pfizer vaccine coming by the end of March and an additional 5m doses of the Moderna vaccine before the end of April, that's enough to be getting on with. A new large scale trial could report back by end of January if it was started now given the prevalence of the virus in the UK right now and be approved by the end of Feb before the stocks of the other two vaccines run out.
It's not criminal in any country that I'm aware of, but you can't do it on a plane because it affects the health of others.
It’s also worth remembering that this is the £3 vaccine that can be stored in a fridge - which will make the logistics of getting it out there much easier in the real world, especially to countries that don’t have unlimited money nor extra-cold storage facilities.
For me, I’m staying at home this year. I want my relatives to be alive for Easter when we can meet up safely and celebrate the resurrection of Christ and the triumph of human spirit and ingenuity.
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1330643876701483009?s=21
No wonder he resigned.
The only question is why he didn’t resign earlier.