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What’s Trump really up to? – politicalbetting.com

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  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Mr. G1, the smoking comparison is one I'd go for.

    It's not criminal in any country that I'm aware of, but you can't do it on a plane because it affects the health of others.

    I’d argue that not wearing trousers affects the health of others, but your point is well made.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    OnboardG1 said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    FPT

    IanB2 said:



    If the Oxford one is cheaper, easier to produce, and doesn't need all the dry ice to store and move it about, then surely the best strategy is to get everyone vaccinated with a first dose of the Oxford, which gets us to herd immunity (when you add in the people already immune) as quickly as possible, and then come round with a second dose to get to over 90%? Indeed if the first dose is a half dose, logically we will be producing doses for the first phase twice as quickly.

    Perhaps. Another strategy could be to aim to have both vaccinations eventually, if there's no reason to think that they interact badly. There are several things we don't know, and there's a choice of rushing on with the easiest (which saves lives) or waiting till we've fully understood the results (which may save more lives).

    To explain the reason why statisticians insist that you need to decide what you're going to measure first is that if you look at several samples with an open mind (which sounds a good thing, but read on...) and then seize on whichever happens to be the best one, you increase the risk of being misled by random variation around the true average. There are statistical methods for allowing for that, as I recall (It's a while since I studied!), and it would be important to see the full results to see if they've been applied.

    Remember we do have a lot of Pfizer vaccine coming in, and preparations for delivering it to the vaccination centres are under way. So the right answer may be to give that to the most vulnerable, and the Oxford vaccine to everyone else. What we emphatically should NOT do is fall in love with one or another method for political or nationalist reasons, or allow politicians to do so. This is really does need to be science-led.
    Right now we don't know if the Pfizer vaccine is better or worse than AZ though. We know that Pfizer is 94% effective at preventing symptomatic COVID, we know that AZ have a dosing method that is 90% effective at preventing both symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID. The trials in each case haven't measured the same thing so making a judgement on who gets what isn't a good idea right now.
    I'm not questioning you on this but do you have a citation on them measuring different things? That's really interesting and I'd like to read more about it.
    I'd have to look it up, but it's certainly true that Pfizer did not regularly swab participants to test for infection, and AZN did.
    In the UK trial arm. It’s less clear that that happened in the BRA trial arm, which I find extremely annoying.
    Probably more difficult to arrange than in the UK, though. Speed means corners cut.

    Here's the AZN study protocol.
    https://s3.amazonaws.com/ctr-med-7111/D8110C00001/52bec400-80f6-4c1b-8791-0483923d0867/c8070a4e-6a9d-46f9-8c32-cece903592b9/D8110C00001_CSP-v2.pdf

    Pages 22 and 23 are the relevant ones ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Sky news now running with the "upto 90% effective" headline and BBC changed theirs to "is highly effective".

    Yes, it was crap reporting by the BBC to just glance at the report then run the morning news headlining on the "only 70%"
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Mr. G1, the smoking comparison is one I'd go for.

    It's not criminal in any country that I'm aware of, but you can't do it on a plane because it affects the health of others.

    Bhutan.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, well: I asked on Saturday why the independent investigator had not interviewed the Home Secretary’s former Private Secretary and today we learn why. He was prevented from doing so.

    https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1330643876701483009?s=21

    No wonder he resigned.

    The only question is why he didn’t resign earlier.

    Perhaps he thought what he had was already sufficient to force her removal, and only resigned when it was clear that wasn’t happening.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    MaxPB said:

    I have to say it doesn't make sense to relax at Christmas this year when we know that we will have significant vaccine deliveries in January. I don't see the logic in it, and I'm not exactly a huge supporter of lockdowns. Doesn't make sense now that we can see the light at the end of the tunnel isn't very far away.

    Exactly. We might have to have an awkward conversation with some relatives over this.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    IanB2 said:

    Sky news now running with the "upto 90% effective" headline and BBC changed theirs to "is highly effective".

    Yes, it was crap reporting by the BBC to just glance at the report then run the morning news headlining on the "only 70%"
    Winning the PR war with this is going to be half the battle and the BBC made a big error with that headline. Using the word "only" is completely irresponsible.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    MaxPB said:

    I have to say it doesn't make sense to relax at Christmas this year when we know that we will have significant vaccine deliveries in January. I don't see the logic in it, and I'm not exactly a huge supporter of lockdowns. Doesn't make sense now that we can see the light at the end of the tunnel isn't very far away.

    Spot on. Exactly the same thinking as me.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,099
    edited November 2020
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sky news now running with the "upto 90% effective" headline and BBC changed theirs to "is highly effective".

    Yes, it was crap reporting by the BBC to just glance at the report then run the morning news headlining on the "only 70%"
    Winning the PR war with this is going to be half the battle and the BBC made a big error with that headline. Using the word "only" is completely irresponsible.
    I hope somebody from the government has given them a Bad Al style rocket on the blower. i hear Ms Patel is particularly good at this.

    Its not about party politics, its about the nations health.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    MaxPB said:

    I have to say it doesn't make sense to relax at Christmas this year when we know that we will have significant vaccine deliveries in January. I don't see the logic in it, and I'm not exactly a huge supporter of lockdowns. Doesn't make sense now that we can see the light at the end of the tunnel isn't very far away.

    Let’s hope enough people see it that way. If everyone behaves themselves over Christmas, we can have parties again by Easter.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Vaccine data is like the US elections. No point in comparing the 3 vaccines (And hopefully more !) till we've got the full results in. Oxford may well be the Joe Biden of the lot.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    edited November 2020

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sky news now running with the "upto 90% effective" headline and BBC changed theirs to "is highly effective".

    Yes, it was crap reporting by the BBC to just glance at the report then run the morning news headlining on the "only 70%"
    Winning the PR war with this is going to be half the battle and the BBC made a big error with that headline. Using the word "only" is completely irresponsible.
    I hope somebody from the government has given them a Bad Al style rocket on the blower. i hear Ms Patel is particularly good at this.
    One quiet word, perhaps?

    I heard an interesting story about the Patel thing - apparently we should ask *what* she was shouting about.

    At that point some people become rather reticent.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,804
    On topic: They must not give Trump a deal. It is the easy option, but it is wrong. It is not only morally wrong it is strategically wrong for the long term.

    Any would be dictator needs to know that if they fail the consequences will be harsh (and that goes for people who knowingly facilitated him/her).

    Trump has come perilously close to succeeding.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:
    Except it isn't, because it's not all about the money.

    It's remarkable how some people like Andrew Adonis keep failing to realise this.

    Perhaps that's partly deliberate, even if at a sub-conscious level, because he'd far prefer it to be about the money otherwise he'd have to accept engaging with the difficult socio-cultural issues it throws up.
    The money and non money issues are linked. Far easier to believe that immigration has stopped you getting a pay rise if you haven't had a pay rise (even if that's not why).
    Some people always dislike social change, but it all gets supercharged when the economy is in the shit. I mean, there was far more cultural change in the 1960s than now, and you didn't have the same kind of angry populist BS you have now because people thought that things were getting better overall...
    You certainly did in the US.
    It got Reagan re-elected governor of California, and eventually President.
    I wouldn't call Reagan a populist (compare his "morning in America" shtick with Trump's "American carnage" speech), and in any case he didn't become president until the early 80s, when the economy had been hit by two oil shocks, high inflation and unemployment and the stagnation of US median wages had begun. Goldwater ran in the sixties on a hard right platform and was crushed.
    Then you need to read more US history.
    Reagan ran for his second term in California on an explicitly populist platform. His big issue was attacking subversive attitudes of the student protestors.

    And don't forget he ran for the President nomination against Ford.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries
    ...During this period, Ronald Reagan concluded his second term in office as Governor of California. His administration was marked by efforts to dismantle the welfare state and a high-profile crackdown on urban crime and left-wing dissent, especially at the University of California, Berkeley. He also led an effort to enforce the state's capital punishment laws but was blocked by the California Supreme Court in the People v. Anderson decision. Following Reagan's retirement from office in January 1975, he began hosting a national radio show and writing a national newspaper column...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Re: Max and others on Christmas.

    A responsible government will use today’s vaccine news to roll back on the Christmas gimmick.

    (Yes, I know, I know)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934
    Excellent news! Weren't there reports that approval would be a matter of days/a week after submission given the regulator has been monitoring things while the trials were ongoing?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sky news now running with the "upto 90% effective" headline and BBC changed theirs to "is highly effective".

    Yes, it was crap reporting by the BBC to just glance at the report then run the morning news headlining on the "only 70%"
    Winning the PR war with this is going to be half the battle and the BBC made a big error with that headline. Using the word "only" is completely irresponsible.
    Shameless horrible organisation. I’m now going to have spend the rest of the week reassuring my mother that it really is good news.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,133
    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see another President of a G7 nation who lost his re election bid by 51% to 48% ie almost identical to Trump's margin of defeat this year, is going on trial for alleged corruption in France.

    Trump will be wary of facing Sarkozy's fate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55015479

    That's assuming Trump knows who Saarkozy is! Trumps knowledge of international politics before he became president was not great.
    I am sure he does, after all he once said he had an affair with his wife

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/carla-bruni-donald-trump-made-affair-denies-affair-a7797786.html
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:
    Except it isn't, because it's not all about the money.

    It's remarkable how some people like Andrew Adonis keep failing to realise this.

    Perhaps that's partly deliberate, even if at a sub-conscious level, because he'd far prefer it to be about the money otherwise he'd have to accept engaging with the difficult socio-cultural issues it throws up.
    I agree with this although I imagine with a different slant to you. The notion that people succumb to their baser instincts and vote for populist hatemongers such as Donald Trump purely because they are struggling financially is a false comfort blanket. An empty bank account and poor prospects no doubt increases the appeal but it in no way explains it. For the hardcore Trump base - and for equivalents elsewhere - there is a simpler and imo better explanation. Nasty people are attracted to nasty political leaders and nasty politics - by which I mean a politics which validates and celebrates their nastiness rather than attempts to challenge and educate them out of it and/or shames them for it. I know this is an unPC sentiment, and totally contra to the traditional position of the Left that I am normally in tune with, but there you go. No point shying away from the truth if it is the truth.
    There is a lot of truth in that. I`d add a couple of things.

    Firstly, a lot hangs on your definition of "nasty". If you are of the left many think that your view of human nature is deluded. It doesn`t necessary follow from this that anyone who is NOT of the left is nasty. I think populism is driven by ignorance, fuzzy-thinking and warping facts to suit your own ignorant view. Effing annoying but not in itself nasty.

    Secondly, I do get a degree of amusement from the sight of left-wingers realising, seeming for this first time due to their rose-tinted view of human nature, that many that they`ve been sticking up for all these years aren`t actually very nice. A dose of reality, as it were.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    On topic, spot on from Ed Norton. He’s pretty good isn’t he?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,099
    edited November 2020

    Re: Max and others on Christmas.

    A responsible government will use today’s vaccine news to roll back on the Christmas gimmick.

    (Yes, I know, I know)

    I think the government should go for rule of 6 (plus kids) on Christmas day, but please don't have granny round. And really push the message, we really are nearly there.

    All the briefings last night of get down the shops are even stranger given they must have known this announcement was coming this morning.
  • ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, well: I asked on Saturday why the independent investigator had not interviewed the Home Secretary’s former Private Secretary and today we learn why. He was prevented from doing so.

    https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1330643876701483009?s=21

    No wonder he resigned.

    The only question is why he didn’t resign earlier.

    Perhaps he thought what he had was already sufficient to force her removal, and only resigned when it was clear that wasn’t happening.
    How can they block access to a private citizen? Or am I missing something?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Page 23 of this document - https://pfe-pfizercom-d8-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/2020-11/C4591001_Clinical_Protocol_Nov2020.pdf - it shows the Pfizer methodology is to collect nasal swabs (for PCR testing) only during "unplanned events" within 3 days of COVID symptoms onset, there was no weekly or regular nasal swabbing.

    That's why the 95% figure of Pfizer isn't comparable to the 90% figure from AZ.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    MaxPB said:

    Page 23 of this document - https://pfe-pfizercom-d8-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/2020-11/C4591001_Clinical_Protocol_Nov2020.pdf - it shows the Pfizer methodology is to collect nasal swabs (for PCR testing) only during "unplanned events" within 3 days of COVID symptoms onset, there was no weekly or regular nasal swabbing.

    That's why the 95% figure of Pfizer isn't comparable to the 90% figure from AZ.

    Is it just me, or does not testing all the members of a trial on a weekly basis seem like an obvious omission?
  • MaxPB said:

    I have to say it doesn't make sense to relax at Christmas this year when we know that we will have significant vaccine deliveries in January. I don't see the logic in it, and I'm not exactly a huge supporter of lockdowns. Doesn't make sense now that we can see the light at the end of the tunnel isn't very far away.

    Likewise. I have become increasingly sceptical of the lockdown policy and have felt all along that we should spend more time studying what Sweden is doing and, importantly, why.

    There was far too much bet on getting a vaccine imho.

    But now we have a vaccine at hand (seems unlikely now that all of those candidates will fail when the production is ramped up and mass injection starts), I can't see why we are changing the government's lockdown strategy.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    The AZ trial procedure looks stronger with the weekly swabs, well possible the Moderna/Pfizer vaccines had the same number of asymptomatic cases that the AZ one did.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:
    It isn't, because by and large the Populists are those born in the 1940s and their opponents born in the Eighties.
    No, over 45s voted for Brexit ie those born in 1971 or earlier not 1941 or earlier and Corbyn won under 40s ie those born after 1980
    Another way of looking at it is that those with most experience of the eu and left wing governments voted against both. Those with less experience of either voted for both.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    OnboardG1 said:

    Stocky said:

    Sandpit said:

    If you’re one of the countries that closed your borders almost completely and have managed to contain the virus, then of course you’re going to want everyone to have been vaccinated.

    It’ll be like getting your typhoid/tetanus/cholera jabs when going to Africa or South America now, you’ll get a Covid jab before going to Australia or NZ.
    Sandpit said:

    If you’re one of the countries that closed your borders almost completely and have managed to contain the virus, then of course you’re going to want everyone to have been vaccinated.

    It’ll be like getting your typhoid/tetanus/cholera jabs when going to Africa or South America now, you’ll get a Covid jab before going to Australia or NZ.
    Yes - but it`s not up to a private company to bring in this policy. It`s to job of governments. If, say, the Australian government say that anyone entering their country needs to be vaccinated then that`s fine, if Quantas say it it`s a form of discrimination.
    You aren’t allowed on a flight if you refuse to wear the seatbelt, get paralytically drunk or aren’t wearing trousers. Discrimination against stupidity is rightly built into the culture. People love to bang on about personal responsibility and here it is. You refused to take the vaccine, you bear the consequences of that.
    Sure, i`m not arguing that people should travel without having the vaccine. I`m just saying that government should step up to the plate on this. Private companies should be our servants not our masters.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:
    Except it isn't, because it's not all about the money.

    It's remarkable how some people like Andrew Adonis keep failing to realise this.

    Perhaps that's partly deliberate, even if at a sub-conscious level, because he'd far prefer it to be about the money otherwise he'd have to accept engaging with the difficult socio-cultural issues it throws up.
    I agree with this although I imagine with a different slant to you. The notion that people succumb to their baser instincts and vote for populist hatemongers such as Donald Trump purely because they are struggling financially is a false comfort blanket. An empty bank account and poor prospects no doubt increases the appeal but it in no way explains it. For the hardcore Trump base - and for equivalents elsewhere - there is a simpler and imo better explanation. Nasty people are attracted to nasty political leaders and nasty politics - by which I mean a politics which validates and celebrates their nastiness rather than attempts to challenge and educate them out of it and/or shames them for it. I know this is an unPC sentiment, and totally contra to the traditional position of the Left that I am normally in tune with, but there you go. No point shying away from the truth if it is the truth.
    There is a lot of truth in that. I`d add a couple of things.

    Firstly, a lot hangs on your definition of "nasty". If you are of the left many think that your view of human nature is deluded. It doesn`t necessary follow from this that anyone who is NOT of the left is nasty. I think populism is driven by ignorance, fuzzy-thinking and warping facts to suit your own ignorant view. Effing annoying but not in itself nasty.

    Secondly, I do get a degree of amusement from the sight of left-wingers realising, seeming for this first time due to their rose-tinted view of human nature, that many that they`ve been sticking up for all these years aren`t actually very nice. A dose of reality, as it were.
    Just as funny as when they realise that people are people. That just because of a sun tan and different language, people aren't necessarily nicer.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sky news now running with the "upto 90% effective" headline and BBC changed theirs to "is highly effective".

    Yes, it was crap reporting by the BBC to just glance at the report then run the morning news headlining on the "only 70%"
    Winning the PR war with this is going to be half the battle and the BBC made a big error with that headline. Using the word "only" is completely irresponsible.
    Although you do have to wonder why the report lumped the two dosage schemes together into a single 70% number in the first place. It's not like both will be used when one is clearly better.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Pulpstar said:

    The AZ trial procedure looks stronger with the weekly swabs, well possible the Moderna/Pfizer vaccines had the same number of asymptomatic cases that the AZ one did.

    It would make the 90% figure for the half dose regime - if it holds up, of course - look very good indeed.
  • I see Piers Moron twitterfeed is full of the vaccine announcement....oh no its all about him screaming at Hancock about if he will take a pay rise that hasn't even been announced.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    edited November 2020
    RobD said:

    Excellent news! Weren't there reports that approval would be a matter of days/a week after submission given the regulator has been monitoring things while the trials were ongoing?

    Is that the UK regulator, MHRA? What about the EU one,
    RobD said:

    Excellent news! Weren't there reports that approval would be a matter of days/a week after submission given the regulator has been monitoring things while the trials were ongoing?

    Is that the UK regulator, MHRA? What about the EU one, EUMA??

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934
    geoffw said:

    RobD said:

    Excellent news! Weren't there reports that approval would be a matter of days/a week after submission given the regulator has been monitoring things while the trials were ongoing?

    Is that the UK regulator, MHRA? What about the EU one?

    Yeah, the MHRA. No idea what the EU timetable would be or if they've had access during the trial.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364

    MaxPB said:

    I have to say it doesn't make sense to relax at Christmas this year when we know that we will have significant vaccine deliveries in January. I don't see the logic in it, and I'm not exactly a huge supporter of lockdowns. Doesn't make sense now that we can see the light at the end of the tunnel isn't very far away.

    Likewise. I have become increasingly sceptical of the lockdown policy and have felt all along that we should spend more time studying what Sweden is doing and, importantly, why.

    There was far too much bet on getting a vaccine imho.

    But now we have a vaccine at hand (seems unlikely now that all of those candidates will fail when the production is ramped up and mass injection starts), I can't see why we are changing the government's lockdown strategy.

    Because there is plenty of time for a lot people to fall ill and die or have life changing effects before we get to the stage where the vast majority of the population has had the vaccine.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    Page 23 of this document - https://pfe-pfizercom-d8-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/2020-11/C4591001_Clinical_Protocol_Nov2020.pdf - it shows the Pfizer methodology is to collect nasal swabs (for PCR testing) only during "unplanned events" within 3 days of COVID symptoms onset, there was no weekly or regular nasal swabbing.

    That's why the 95% figure of Pfizer isn't comparable to the 90% figure from AZ.

    Is it just me, or does not testing all the members of a trial on a weekly basis seem like an obvious omission?
    It really depends, the Pfizer vaccine is advertised as stopping 95% of symptomatic COVID, which is what people care about. That's what their vaccine is designed to do, stop people from getting symptoms and in 95% of cases that is what happens. If you don't care about asymptomatic spread because everyone who is liable to experience serious symptoms has been vaccinated then this is a well designed trial.

    AZ have given themselves a rod for their own back by testing for asymptomatic infections, but these results also have interesting indications that the vaccine may prevent people from getting it at all with the half/full dosage method.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see another President of a G7 nation who lost his re election bid by 51% to 48% ie almost identical to Trump's margin of defeat this year, is going on trial for alleged corruption in France.

    Trump will be wary of facing Sarkozy's fate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55015479

    That's assuming Trump knows who Saarkozy is! Trumps knowledge of international politics before he became president was not great.
    I am sure he does, after all he once said he had an affair with his wife

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/carla-bruni-donald-trump-made-affair-denies-affair-a7797786.html
    Trump had an affair with his own wife?

    That’s unusual, I thought he preferred other people’s wives...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,133
    edited November 2020
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see another President of a G7 nation who lost his re election bid by 51% to 48% ie almost identical to Trump's margin of defeat this year, is going on trial for alleged corruption in France.

    Trump will be wary of facing Sarkozy's fate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55015479

    That's assuming Trump knows who Saarkozy is! Trumps knowledge of international politics before he became president was not great.
    I am sure he does, after all he once said he had an affair with his wife

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/carla-bruni-donald-trump-made-affair-denies-affair-a7797786.html
    Trump had an affair with his own wife?

    That’s unusual, I thought he preferred other people’s wives...
    Sarkozy's wife, Carla Bruni in the 1990s (though this was before Sarkozy married her though Trump was married at the time)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    I'd be happy to have any of the three vaccines quite honestly, am at the back of the queue though.
  • ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see another President of a G7 nation who lost his re election bid by 51% to 48% ie almost identical to Trump's margin of defeat this year, is going on trial for alleged corruption in France.

    Trump will be wary of facing Sarkozy's fate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55015479

    That's assuming Trump knows who Saarkozy is! Trumps knowledge of international politics before he became president was not great.
    I am sure he does, after all he once said he had an affair with his wife

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/carla-bruni-donald-trump-made-affair-denies-affair-a7797786.html
    Trump had an affair with his own wife?

    That’s unusual, I thought he preferred other people’s wives...
    As in, she was pretending he was someone else
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Page 23 of this document - https://pfe-pfizercom-d8-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/2020-11/C4591001_Clinical_Protocol_Nov2020.pdf - it shows the Pfizer methodology is to collect nasal swabs (for PCR testing) only during "unplanned events" within 3 days of COVID symptoms onset, there was no weekly or regular nasal swabbing.

    That's why the 95% figure of Pfizer isn't comparable to the 90% figure from AZ.

    Is it just me, or does not testing all the members of a trial on a weekly basis seem like an obvious omission?
    It really depends, the Pfizer vaccine is advertised as stopping 95% of symptomatic COVID, which is what people care about. That's what their vaccine is designed to do, stop people from getting symptoms and in 95% of cases that is what happens. If you don't care about asymptomatic spread because everyone who is liable to experience serious symptoms has been vaccinated then this is a well designed trial.

    AZ have given themselves a rod for their own back by testing for asymptomatic infections, but these results also have interesting indications that the vaccine may prevent people from getting it at all with the half/full dosage method.
    I meant in the sense of missing data - knowing all the COVID cases across the trial would have been good data. The ground truth undermining the trial... Thinking like a scientist, I suppose.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    HYUFD said:
    With Cummings out the door, it'd make sense for the UK to fold accept a great deal for Britain
  • HYUFD said:
    Simply amazing that a Conservative government seems to be holding out over State Aid.
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:
    Except it isn't, because it's not all about the money.

    It's remarkable how some people like Andrew Adonis keep failing to realise this.

    Perhaps that's partly deliberate, even if at a sub-conscious level, because he'd far prefer it to be about the money otherwise he'd have to accept engaging with the difficult socio-cultural issues it throws up.
    The money and non money issues are linked. Far easier to believe that immigration has stopped you getting a pay rise if you haven't had a pay rise (even if that's not why).
    Some people always dislike social change, but it all gets supercharged when the economy is in the shit. I mean, there was far more cultural change in the 1960s than now, and you didn't have the same kind of angry populist BS you have now because people thought that things were getting better overall...
    You certainly did in the US.
    It got Reagan re-elected governor of California, and eventually President.
    I wouldn't call Reagan a populist (compare his "morning in America" shtick with Trump's "American carnage" speech), and in any case he didn't become president until the early 80s, when the economy had been hit by two oil shocks, high inflation and unemployment and the stagnation of US median wages had begun. Goldwater ran in the sixties on a hard right platform and was crushed.
    Then you need to read more US history.
    Reagan ran for his second term in California on an explicitly populist platform. His big issue was attacking subversive attitudes of the student protestors.

    And don't forget he ran for the President nomination against Ford.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries
    ...During this period, Ronald Reagan concluded his second term in office as Governor of California. His administration was marked by efforts to dismantle the welfare state and a high-profile crackdown on urban crime and left-wing dissent, especially at the University of California, Berkeley. He also led an effort to enforce the state's capital punishment laws but was blocked by the California Supreme Court in the People v. Anderson decision. Following Reagan's retirement from office in January 1975, he began hosting a national radio show and writing a national newspaper column...
    Attacking longhairs was standard Republican behaviour throughout the sixties and seventies, Nixon did the same thing and I wouldn't call him a populist either. Reagan obviously represented a rightwards shift for the Republicans, he took on Goldwater's mantle and gave it a more friendly face. But the point is that Reagan didn't stand nationally until the 1970s and didn't win until the 1980s and while he incorporated a lot of culture war bollox into his offer to voters I wouldn't describe him as a populist any more than I would describe Thatcher in those terms. Populists run against the system and don't offer any real solutions to the problems they identify. You can criticise Reagan (and Thatcher) for the solutions they came up with but they were rightwingers not populists in my view.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    Gaussian said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sky news now running with the "upto 90% effective" headline and BBC changed theirs to "is highly effective".

    Yes, it was crap reporting by the BBC to just glance at the report then run the morning news headlining on the "only 70%"
    Winning the PR war with this is going to be half the battle and the BBC made a big error with that headline. Using the word "only" is completely irresponsible.
    Although you do have to wonder why the report lumped the two dosage schemes together into a single 70% number in the first place. It's not like both will be used when one is clearly better.
    Full disclosure - for the stock market regulators for one. And openness is the only way to fight the anti-vaccine shite.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Page 23 of this document - https://pfe-pfizercom-d8-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/2020-11/C4591001_Clinical_Protocol_Nov2020.pdf - it shows the Pfizer methodology is to collect nasal swabs (for PCR testing) only during "unplanned events" within 3 days of COVID symptoms onset, there was no weekly or regular nasal swabbing.

    That's why the 95% figure of Pfizer isn't comparable to the 90% figure from AZ.

    Is it just me, or does not testing all the members of a trial on a weekly basis seem like an obvious omission?
    It really depends, the Pfizer vaccine is advertised as stopping 95% of symptomatic COVID, which is what people care about. That's what their vaccine is designed to do, stop people from getting symptoms and in 95% of cases that is what happens. If you don't care about asymptomatic spread because everyone who is liable to experience serious symptoms has been vaccinated then this is a well designed trial.

    AZ have given themselves a rod for their own back by testing for asymptomatic infections, but these results also have interesting indications that the vaccine may prevent people from getting it at all with the half/full dosage method.
    Can't Oxford/AZ extract the symptomatic cases from their trial and report on the same basis as Pfizer? They must have records.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The AZ trial procedure looks stronger with the weekly swabs, well possible the Moderna/Pfizer vaccines had the same number of asymptomatic cases that the AZ one did.

    It would make the 90% figure for the half dose regime - if it holds up, of course - look very good indeed.
    Exactly, that 90% figure is starting to look absolutely incredible, which is why I think they might want to do a very fast 20k trial in areas of high transmission in the UK and get people jabbed with this dosage before Xmas to get 100 or so events in the days afterwards and confirm these findings.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 931
    Malmesbury: re Sweden, trouble with your thought is that Swedens cases are soaring again and Doctors are asking the Government to FURTHER tighten up.
    Compared to Denmark, Norway and Finland, Sweden is a mess.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Page 23 of this document - https://pfe-pfizercom-d8-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/2020-11/C4591001_Clinical_Protocol_Nov2020.pdf - it shows the Pfizer methodology is to collect nasal swabs (for PCR testing) only during "unplanned events" within 3 days of COVID symptoms onset, there was no weekly or regular nasal swabbing.

    That's why the 95% figure of Pfizer isn't comparable to the 90% figure from AZ.

    Is it just me, or does not testing all the members of a trial on a weekly basis seem like an obvious omission?
    It really depends, the Pfizer vaccine is advertised as stopping 95% of symptomatic COVID, which is what people care about. That's what their vaccine is designed to do, stop people from getting symptoms and in 95% of cases that is what happens. If you don't care about asymptomatic spread because everyone who is liable to experience serious symptoms has been vaccinated then this is a well designed trial.

    AZ have given themselves a rod for their own back by testing for asymptomatic infections, but these results also have interesting indications that the vaccine may prevent people from getting it at all with the half/full dosage method.
    There was a paper yesterday from China which seemed to show that there was almost no asymptomatic transfer of the virus, unless I misunderstood. So the Pfizer jab might get rid of the virus pretty quickly.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited November 2020
    OnboardG1 said:

    Here's a question....the government have leaked all this go wild for a week at christmas, when they did this did they know the AZ vaccine was ready? If so, surely they should have been, we need to stick to the course, there is going to be more than enough supply for life to be back to normal by easter (thst is what hancock has just said).

    Hancock is bright enough (or experienced enough) to have realised this messaging is critically important. Lots of backbench (and cabinet) MPs are half-witted Mail surrogates who wAnT To SAve CHRistmAs.

    For me, I’m staying at home this year. I want my relatives to be alive for Easter when we can meet up safely and celebrate the resurrection of Christ and the triumph of human spirit and ingenuity.
    It's all calculated risk, albeit we don't know the precise inputs.

    I have been to see my 90-yr old mother, who lives on her own, regularly for the past six months to sit, chat, discuss books, play chess, etc.

    She wanted to, I wanted to. She knew the risks, such as they were, or at least the general risk and was happy nevertheless. So risky as it was, my mother has not suffered any loneliness, staring at relatives through windows, isolation, or Covid-related depression since this all began.

    That was worth it. Others' views may differ.

    But I'm with you on looking forward to Easter and celebrating the Chocolate bunnies.
  • MaxPB said:

    I have to say it doesn't make sense to relax at Christmas this year when we know that we will have significant vaccine deliveries in January. I don't see the logic in it, and I'm not exactly a huge supporter of lockdowns. Doesn't make sense now that we can see the light at the end of the tunnel isn't very far away.

    Likewise. I have become increasingly sceptical of the lockdown policy and have felt all along that we should spend more time studying what Sweden is doing and, importantly, why.

    There was far too much bet on getting a vaccine imho.

    But now we have a vaccine at hand (seems unlikely now that all of those candidates will fail when the production is ramped up and mass injection starts), I can't see why we are changing the government's lockdown strategy.

    Because there is plenty of time for a lot people to fall ill and die or have life changing effects before we get to the stage where the vast majority of the population has had the vaccine.
    Indeed. So why are we relaxing for Xmas? That was my point.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Who’s Edward Norton? A quick Google only finds an actor of that name.

    No idea but I think that he is right on this. Trump cannot be allowed to get some form of immunity as the price for going quietly.
    The number of people pushing the idea of a blanket pardon to ensure an orderly transition is mind blowing.

    No one is above the law.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720

    HYUFD said:
    Simply amazing that a Conservative government seems to be holding out over State Aid.
    More likely to be the body overseeing that - is it to be an EU competence?

  • RobD said:

    geoffw said:

    RobD said:

    Excellent news! Weren't there reports that approval would be a matter of days/a week after submission given the regulator has been monitoring things while the trials were ongoing?

    Is that the UK regulator, MHRA? What about the EU one?

    Yeah, the MHRA. No idea what the EU timetable would be or if they've had access during the trial.
    Legislation has been passed to allow UK to just use MHRA as we will be anyway from January.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 931
    Trump: I am more convinced today than I was yesterday that he is desires to take the country into a dictatorship and only the intervention of the Chiefs of Staff can save the day.
    We are on a knife edge of biblical proportions.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934

    Gaussian said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sky news now running with the "upto 90% effective" headline and BBC changed theirs to "is highly effective".

    Yes, it was crap reporting by the BBC to just glance at the report then run the morning news headlining on the "only 70%"
    Winning the PR war with this is going to be half the battle and the BBC made a big error with that headline. Using the word "only" is completely irresponsible.
    Although you do have to wonder why the report lumped the two dosage schemes together into a single 70% number in the first place. It's not like both will be used when one is clearly better.
    Full disclosure - for the stock market regulators for one. And openness is the only way to fight the anti-vaccine shite.
    It's just a shame about the scientifically illiterate journalists and their "only 70%" headlines.
  • RobD said:

    Gaussian said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sky news now running with the "upto 90% effective" headline and BBC changed theirs to "is highly effective".

    Yes, it was crap reporting by the BBC to just glance at the report then run the morning news headlining on the "only 70%"
    Winning the PR war with this is going to be half the battle and the BBC made a big error with that headline. Using the word "only" is completely irresponsible.
    Although you do have to wonder why the report lumped the two dosage schemes together into a single 70% number in the first place. It's not like both will be used when one is clearly better.
    Full disclosure - for the stock market regulators for one. And openness is the only way to fight the anti-vaccine shite.
    It's just a shame about the scientifically illiterate journalists and their "only 70%" headlines.
    Should we except anything less after the past 6 months?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    theakes said:

    Trump: I am more convinced today than I was yesterday that he is desires to take the country into a dictatorship and only the intervention of the Chiefs of Staff can save the day.
    We are on a knife edge of biblical proportions.

    Crikey, I hope you are wrong.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,602
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    With Cummings out the door, it'd make sense for the UK to fold accept a great deal for Britain
    Cummings was never the issue on a deal.

    Boris' problem in accepting "a great deal for Britain" is that his backbenchers won't support it. Or him, for trying it on.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Page 23 of this document - https://pfe-pfizercom-d8-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/2020-11/C4591001_Clinical_Protocol_Nov2020.pdf - it shows the Pfizer methodology is to collect nasal swabs (for PCR testing) only during "unplanned events" within 3 days of COVID symptoms onset, there was no weekly or regular nasal swabbing.

    That's why the 95% figure of Pfizer isn't comparable to the 90% figure from AZ.

    Is it just me, or does not testing all the members of a trial on a weekly basis seem like an obvious omission?
    It really depends, the Pfizer vaccine is advertised as stopping 95% of symptomatic COVID, which is what people care about. That's what their vaccine is designed to do, stop people from getting symptoms and in 95% of cases that is what happens. If you don't care about asymptomatic spread because everyone who is liable to experience serious symptoms has been vaccinated then this is a well designed trial.

    AZ have given themselves a rod for their own back by testing for asymptomatic infections, but these results also have interesting indications that the vaccine may prevent people from getting it at all with the half/full dosage method.
    It would matter if the asymptomatic cases could still lead to "long" complications. Fortunately long symptoms seem to correlate with initial severity. Which doesn't of course rule it out.
  • James_MJames_M Posts: 103
    Thanks to everyone so far who replied with their views on whether a 'normal' wedding/reception on 1st May is likely to be possible. As a few of you noted, the challenge with wedding planning is how far in advance we need to make decisions and sign contracts or adapt them. We might be able to push any decision on whether we scale back the wedding until mid January to see what things are looking like. Any other views are welcome; I find it useful to get outsider perspectives as sometimes I cannot see the wood for the trees when the decision is so close to me!
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    kjh said:

    On topic: They must not give Trump a deal. It is the easy option, but it is wrong. It is not only morally wrong it is strategically wrong for the long term.

    Any would be dictator needs to know that if they fail the consequences will be harsh (and that goes for people who knowingly facilitated him/her).

    Trump has come perilously close to succeeding.

    If you prosecute him, all that will happen is that he will be seen as a martyr and reinforce his support.

    It will also guarantee that the Republicans will seek to prosecute Biden on whatever grounds when he finishes being President, especially as Trump didn't seek to prosecute Clinton.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    They better hurry up with this deal. We've only got 6 weeks left.
  • Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    With Cummings out the door, it'd make sense for the UK to fold accept a great deal for Britain mitigate the worse
    FTFY
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    RobD said:

    Gaussian said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sky news now running with the "upto 90% effective" headline and BBC changed theirs to "is highly effective".

    Yes, it was crap reporting by the BBC to just glance at the report then run the morning news headlining on the "only 70%"
    Winning the PR war with this is going to be half the battle and the BBC made a big error with that headline. Using the word "only" is completely irresponsible.
    Although you do have to wonder why the report lumped the two dosage schemes together into a single 70% number in the first place. It's not like both will be used when one is clearly better.
    Full disclosure - for the stock market regulators for one. And openness is the only way to fight the anti-vaccine shite.
    It's just a shame about the scientifically illiterate journalists and their "only 70%" headlines.
    "It's just a shame about the scientifically illiterate journalists and their "only 70%" headlines."

    Fixed that for you.

    Look up Gell-Mann Amnesia....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    MrEd said:

    kjh said:

    On topic: They must not give Trump a deal. It is the easy option, but it is wrong. It is not only morally wrong it is strategically wrong for the long term.

    Any would be dictator needs to know that if they fail the consequences will be harsh (and that goes for people who knowingly facilitated him/her).

    Trump has come perilously close to succeeding.

    If you prosecute him, all that will happen is that he will be seen as a martyr and reinforce his support.

    It will also guarantee that the Republicans will seek to prosecute Biden on whatever grounds when he finishes being President, especially as Trump didn't seek to prosecute Clinton.
    If Biden does something unlawful then he should be prosecuted.
  • HYUFD said:
    Simply amazing that a Conservative government seems to be holding out over State Aid.
    It is a bluekip govt with the Conservative rosette, not a conservative government.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    HYUFD said:
    Simply amazing that a Conservative government seems to be holding out over State Aid.
    The issue with state aid is that EU countries routinely ignore the rules when they feel like it, and the EU doesn’t enforce punishments on them.

    The concern from the U.K. side, is that the EU will push to enforce the same rules against the U.K. that they routinely ignore among their own member states.
  • Stocky said:

    theakes said:

    Trump: I am more convinced today than I was yesterday that he is desires to take the country into a dictatorship and only the intervention of the Chiefs of Staff can save the day.
    We are on a knife edge of biblical proportions.

    Crikey, I hope you are wrong.
    I strongly think he is.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see another President of a G7 nation who lost his re election bid by 51% to 48% ie almost identical to Trump's margin of defeat this year, is going on trial for alleged corruption in France.

    Trump will be wary of facing Sarkozy's fate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55015479

    That's assuming Trump knows who Saarkozy is! Trumps knowledge of international politics before he became president was not great.
    I am sure he does, after all he once said he had an affair with his wife

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/carla-bruni-donald-trump-made-affair-denies-affair-a7797786.html
    Trump had an affair with his own wife?

    That’s unusual, I thought he preferred other people’s wives...
    Well he has had more than one.
  • They better hurry up with this deal. We've only got 6 weeks left.

    Not even that, because any deal has to be voted on by the 27 different parliaments.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    On topic, spot on from Ed Norton. He’s pretty good isn’t he?

    Except when he's Tyler
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    With Cummings out the door, it'd make sense for the UK to fold accept a great deal for Britain
    Cummings was never the issue on a deal.

    Boris' problem in accepting "a great deal for Britain" is that his backbenchers won't support it. Or him, for trying it on.
    Glad you put that in quote marks. Backbenchers shouldn`t support it. Good, or at least adequate, deal or no deal. An extension to transition would be preferable to a bad deal.

    Do you think that Johnson`s weakening on this was a reason for Cummings going? Or was it the personal stuff re; Carrie?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    They better hurry up with this deal. We've only got 6 weeks left.

    Not even that, because any deal has to be voted on by the 27 different parliaments.
    Isn't that only if it encroaches into national competencies?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    theakes said:

    Malmesbury: re Sweden, trouble with your thought is that Swedens cases are soaring again and Doctors are asking the Government to FURTHER tighten up.
    Compared to Denmark, Norway and Finland, Sweden is a mess.

    Not sure I follow? Don't think I've ever advocated the "Swedish solution". Which isn't a solution - more an attempted middle way.
  • MrEd said:

    kjh said:

    On topic: They must not give Trump a deal. It is the easy option, but it is wrong. It is not only morally wrong it is strategically wrong for the long term.

    Any would be dictator needs to know that if they fail the consequences will be harsh (and that goes for people who knowingly facilitated him/her).

    Trump has come perilously close to succeeding.

    If you prosecute him, all that will happen is that he will be seen as a martyr and reinforce his support.

    It will also guarantee that the Republicans will seek to prosecute Biden on whatever grounds when he finishes being President, especially as Trump didn't seek to prosecute Clinton.
    Politicians should not prosecute cases at all. If there's evidence of wrongdoing, it must be followed up. Clinton was investigated. The judicial process was followed, as it should be for anyone.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    edited November 2020
    We did a review of the IP strategies being followed by all the covid vaccine leaders last week. This is what we said about Oxford/Astra Zeneca:

    A third approach has been adopted by the University of Oxford and its partner AstraZeneca towards their Phase 3 candidate AZD1222 (formerly known as ChAdOx1 nCoV-19). Back in April, Oxford University Innovation’s Adam Stoten spoke to IAMabout its plan to provide expedited access to the university’s vaccine-related IP. Its default approach was to issue non-exclusive, royalty-free licences to support at-cost or cost + small margin supply during the pandemic. In this respect, OUI’s strategy resembled similar commitments made by other academic institutions, such as Stanford University, Harvard University, MIT and Knowledge Transfer Ireland.
    Whether its subsequent agreement with AstraZeneca is consistent with this approach or a departure from it has been the subject of some debate. The UK company has been granted an exclusive – rather than non-exclusive – licence to develop the vaccine, but it has issued a large number of sub-licences giving companies the ability to supply markets around the world. The extent to which these provide exclusivity for sub-licensees in specific jurisdictions is not entirely clear from public pronouncements, but the company has expressed commitment to building up several parallel supply chains.
    While its CEO Pascal Soriot has emphasised the importance of IP for combatting covid-19, AstraZeneca has consistently said that it will not make a profit from vaccines sales during the pandemic. It has also licensed one billion doses to be produced by the Serum Institute of India for 57 poorer countries.
    A degree of controversy arose after it emerged that AstraZeneca could declare the pandemic – and therefore its non-profit commitment – over as early July 2021. The company has since stated that its commitment to supply low-income countries at cost will continue in perpetuity.

    https://www.iam-media.com/coronavirus/your-guide-covid-19-vaccine-stakeholders-ip-strategies

    In short, not only is the vaccine the most promising in terms of storage and transportation, it is also going to be among the cheapest. Fantastic.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Pulpstar said:

    Vaccine data is like the US elections. No point in comparing the 3 vaccines (And hopefully more !) till we've got the full results in. Oxford may well be the Joe Biden of the lot.

    A fraud launched by the CIA and Hugo Chavez?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    MrEd said:

    kjh said:

    On topic: They must not give Trump a deal. It is the easy option, but it is wrong. It is not only morally wrong it is strategically wrong for the long term.

    Any would be dictator needs to know that if they fail the consequences will be harsh (and that goes for people who knowingly facilitated him/her).

    Trump has come perilously close to succeeding.

    If you prosecute him, all that will happen is that he will be seen as a martyr and reinforce his support.

    It will also guarantee that the Republicans will seek to prosecute Biden on whatever grounds when he finishes being President, especially as Trump didn't seek to prosecute Clinton.
    It is not Republicans or Democrats who will prosecute Trump, but state or federal prosecutors.
    In any event we were discussing a pardon. Declining to give him one is not prosecuting him.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934

    We did a review of the IP strategies being followed by all the covid vaccine leaders last week. This is what we said about Oxford/Astra Zeneca:

    A third approach has been adopted by the University of Oxford and its partner AstraZeneca towards their Phase 3 candidate AZD1222 (formerly known as ChAdOx1 nCoV-19). Back in April, Oxford University Innovation’s Adam Stoten spoke to IAMabout its plan to provide expedited access to the university’s vaccine-related IP. Its default approach was to issue non-exclusive, royalty-free licences to support at-cost or cost + small margin supply during the pandemic. In this respect, OUI’s strategy resembled similar commitments made by other academic institutions, such as Stanford University, Harvard University, MIT and Knowledge Transfer Ireland.
    Whether its subsequent agreement with AstraZeneca is consistent with this approach or a departure from it has been the subject of some debate. The UK company has been granted an exclusive – rather than non-exclusive – licence to develop the vaccine, but it has issued a large number of sub-licences giving companies the ability to supply markets around the world. The extent to which these provide exclusivity for sub-licensees in specific jurisdictions is not entirely clear from public pronouncements, but the company has expressed commitment to building up several parallel supply chains.
    While its CEO Pascal Soriot has emphasised the importance of IP for combatting covid-19, AstraZeneca has consistently said that it will not make a profit from vaccines sales during the pandemic. It has also licensed one billion doses to be produced by the Serum Institute of India for 57 poorer countries.
    A degree of controversy arose after it emerged that AstraZeneca could declare the pandemic – and therefore its non-profit commitment – over as early July 2021. The company has since stated that its commitment to supply low-income countries at cost will continue in perpetuity.

    https://www.iam-media.com/coronavirus/your-guide-covid-19-vaccine-stakeholders-ip-strategies

    In short, no only is the vaccine the most promising in terms of storage and transportation, it is also going to be among the cheapest. Fantastic.

    Yeah, it's a huge win. Very effective, very easy to transport and very cheap. What's not to like?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    theakes said:

    Trump: I am more convinced today than I was yesterday that he is desires to take the country into a dictatorship and only the intervention of the Chiefs of Staff can save the day.
    We are on a knife edge of biblical proportions.

    He has no leverage in the machinery of government. The court cases are all going against him. Which means the electors will show up as per the vote. Which will mean that Biden will be President according to the constitution.

    Which means at 12.00.00000000001pm on Jan 20th, Trump will be an intruder at the White House if he is still there.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    Gaussian said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sky news now running with the "upto 90% effective" headline and BBC changed theirs to "is highly effective".

    Yes, it was crap reporting by the BBC to just glance at the report then run the morning news headlining on the "only 70%"
    Winning the PR war with this is going to be half the battle and the BBC made a big error with that headline. Using the word "only" is completely irresponsible.
    Although you do have to wonder why the report lumped the two dosage schemes together into a single 70% number in the first place. It's not like both will be used when one is clearly better.
    Full disclosure - for the stock market regulators for one. And openness is the only way to fight the anti-vaccine shite.
    Fully agree regarding the need for openness, but the combined 70% just seems a meaningless number. Why not just present the two schemes separately?
  • On topic, spot on from Ed Norton. He’s pretty good isn’t he?

    Except when he's Tyler
    Have you forgotten the first rule?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    I see PB’s resident bedwetter/troll is back with his dismal Trumpton fantasies again.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    The BBC article on it is absolutely terrible, this in particular is factually incorrect:

    "Are the results disappointing?
    After Pfizer and Moderna both produced vaccines delivering 95% protection from Covid-19, a figure of 70% is still highly effective, but will be seen by some as relatively disappointing.

    But this is still a vaccine that can save lives from Covid-19 and is more effective than a seasonal flu jab."

    It's not 70%, its 62% and 90% for the two dosage variations and as we've discussed here the 90% variation includes testing for asymptomatic cases where neither of the other two trials did that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,602
    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    With Cummings out the door, it'd make sense for the UK to fold accept a great deal for Britain
    Cummings was never the issue on a deal.

    Boris' problem in accepting "a great deal for Britain" is that his backbenchers won't support it. Or him, for trying it on.
    Glad you put that in quote marks. Backbenchers shouldn`t support it. Good, or at least adequate, deal or no deal. An extension to transition would be preferable to a bad deal.

    Do you think that Johnson`s weakening on this was a reason for Cummings going? Or was it the personal stuff re; Carrie?
    Cummings - and Boris's press chief - couldn't see how any deal was remotely compatible with the Tories' 2019 Manifesto, couldn't see how it could be sold other than as a massive climbdown and so were happy to walk away from the coming shit storm, would be my best guess of what went on.
  • HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see another President of a G7 nation who lost his re election bid by 51% to 48% ie almost identical to Trump's margin of defeat this year, is going on trial for alleged corruption in France.

    Trump will be wary of facing Sarkozy's fate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55015479

    That's assuming Trump knows who Saarkozy is! Trumps knowledge of international politics before he became president was not great.
    I am sure he does, after all he once said he had an affair with his wife

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/carla-bruni-donald-trump-made-affair-denies-affair-a7797786.html
    Trump had an affair with his own wife?

    That’s unusual, I thought he preferred other people’s wives...
    Sarkozy's wife, Carla Bruni in the 1990s (though this was before Sarkozy married her though Trump was married at the time)
    I guess that's Trump's second wife, Marla Maples? He was still married to Ivana until 92. Don't know why I just watched this video of him and Marla together in 91, but it's strange. He calls her "Melala" just after 3 mins in. Did he have 21 year old Melania on the brain before his 6 year marriage to Marla?
    https://youtu.be/SfOgCBNIwKg?t=189
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934
    MaxPB said:

    The BBC article on it is absolutely terrible, this in particular is factually incorrect:

    "Are the results disappointing?
    After Pfizer and Moderna both produced vaccines delivering 95% protection from Covid-19, a figure of 70% is still highly effective, but will be seen by some as relatively disappointing.

    But this is still a vaccine that can save lives from Covid-19 and is more effective than a seasonal flu jab."

    It's not 70%, its 62% and 90% for the two dosage variations and as we've discussed here the 90% variation includes testing for asymptomatic cases where neither of the other two trials did that.

    I'd be surprised if whoever wrote that could put their own clothes on in the morning.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    TOPPING said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Here's a question....the government have leaked all this go wild for a week at christmas, when they did this did they know the AZ vaccine was ready? If so, surely they should have been, we need to stick to the course, there is going to be more than enough supply for life to be back to normal by easter (thst is what hancock has just said).

    Hancock is bright enough (or experienced enough) to have realised this messaging is critically important. Lots of backbench (and cabinet) MPs are half-witted Mail surrogates who wAnT To SAve CHRistmAs.

    For me, I’m staying at home this year. I want my relatives to be alive for Easter when we can meet up safely and celebrate the resurrection of Christ and the triumph of human spirit and ingenuity.
    It's all calculated risk, albeit we don't know the precise inputs.

    I have been to see my 90-yr old mother, who lives on her own, regularly for the past six months to sit, chat, discuss books, play chess, etc.

    She wanted to, I wanted to. She knew the risks, such as they were, or at least the general risk and was happy nevertheless. So risky as it was, my mother has not suffered any loneliness, staring at relatives through windows, isolation, or Covid-related depression since this all began.

    That was worth it. Others' views may differ.

    But I'm with you on looking forward to Easter and celebrating the Chocolate bunnies.
    Sure, my parents have done the same with my Grandmother. Bubbling single people and another household isn’t particularly risky, and has been a good policy in my view. The issue is around having big, six to seven household Christmas visits where you can potentially end up with all of them having a Covid case. It just isn’t worth it in my view when a vaccine is just a month or two off.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,591
    edited November 2020

    HYUFD said:
    Except it isn't, because it's not all about the money.

    It's remarkable how some people like Andrew Adonis keep failing to realise this.

    Perhaps that's partly deliberate, even if at a sub-conscious level, because he'd far prefer it to be about the money otherwise he'd have to accept engaging with the difficult socio-cultural issues it throws up.
    It's partly about money and property, but probably slightly more about culture and related issues.

    What it definitely isn't is just one or the other, which a surprising number of people continue to insist on, depending on their political stance.
  • theakes said:

    Trump: I am more convinced today than I was yesterday that he is desires to take the country into a dictatorship and only the intervention of the Chiefs of Staff can save the day.
    We are on a knife edge of biblical proportions.

    He has no leverage in the machinery of government. The court cases are all going against him. Which means the electors will show up as per the vote. Which will mean that Biden will be President according to the constitution.

    Which means at 12.00.00000000001pm on Jan 20th, Trump will be an intruder at the White House if he is still there.
    Agreed, the peaceful transfer of power is hardwired into America's constitutional DNA. If Trump tries to stand in its way he will be swatted away like a fly.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    kjh said:

    On topic: They must not give Trump a deal. It is the easy option, but it is wrong. It is not only morally wrong it is strategically wrong for the long term.

    Any would be dictator needs to know that if they fail the consequences will be harsh (and that goes for people who knowingly facilitated him/her).

    Trump has come perilously close to succeeding.

    If you prosecute him, all that will happen is that he will be seen as a martyr and reinforce his support.

    It will also guarantee that the Republicans will seek to prosecute Biden on whatever grounds when he finishes being President, especially as Trump didn't seek to prosecute Clinton.
    It is not Republicans or Democrats who will prosecute Trump, but state or federal prosecutors.
    In any event we were discussing a pardon. Declining to give him one is not prosecuting him.
    Biden won't pardon him - too much of the Democrat base would go apeshit if he did.

    He won't rush to prosecute federally. My guess is that any federal case will be deferred until a number (if not all) of the state cases are out of the way. States rights :-)

    That way Biden can say

    - I'm not vindictive
    - I'm letting justice take it's course
    - I'm not interfering in the courts

    Trump will probably be federally indicted half way through Kamella Harris second term.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,099
    edited November 2020
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    The BBC article on it is absolutely terrible, this in particular is factually incorrect:

    "Are the results disappointing?
    After Pfizer and Moderna both produced vaccines delivering 95% protection from Covid-19, a figure of 70% is still highly effective, but will be seen by some as relatively disappointing.

    But this is still a vaccine that can save lives from Covid-19 and is more effective than a seasonal flu jab."

    It's not 70%, its 62% and 90% for the two dosage variations and as we've discussed here the 90% variation includes testing for asymptomatic cases where neither of the other two trials did that.

    I'd be surprised if whoever wrote that could put their own clothes on in the morning.
    The journalist who wrote that supposedly has a degree in Biology....face palm. Obviously missed the modules that covered reading scientific papers of real world medical trials.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    RobD said:

    We did a review of the IP strategies being followed by all the covid vaccine leaders last week. This is what we said about Oxford/Astra Zeneca:

    A third approach has been adopted by the University of Oxford and its partner AstraZeneca towards their Phase 3 candidate AZD1222 (formerly known as ChAdOx1 nCoV-19). Back in April, Oxford University Innovation’s Adam Stoten spoke to IAMabout its plan to provide expedited access to the university’s vaccine-related IP. Its default approach was to issue non-exclusive, royalty-free licences to support at-cost or cost + small margin supply during the pandemic. In this respect, OUI’s strategy resembled similar commitments made by other academic institutions, such as Stanford University, Harvard University, MIT and Knowledge Transfer Ireland.
    Whether its subsequent agreement with AstraZeneca is consistent with this approach or a departure from it has been the subject of some debate. The UK company has been granted an exclusive – rather than non-exclusive – licence to develop the vaccine, but it has issued a large number of sub-licences giving companies the ability to supply markets around the world. The extent to which these provide exclusivity for sub-licensees in specific jurisdictions is not entirely clear from public pronouncements, but the company has expressed commitment to building up several parallel supply chains.
    While its CEO Pascal Soriot has emphasised the importance of IP for combatting covid-19, AstraZeneca has consistently said that it will not make a profit from vaccines sales during the pandemic. It has also licensed one billion doses to be produced by the Serum Institute of India for 57 poorer countries.
    A degree of controversy arose after it emerged that AstraZeneca could declare the pandemic – and therefore its non-profit commitment – over as early July 2021. The company has since stated that its commitment to supply low-income countries at cost will continue in perpetuity.

    https://www.iam-media.com/coronavirus/your-guide-covid-19-vaccine-stakeholders-ip-strategies

    In short, no only is the vaccine the most promising in terms of storage and transportation, it is also going to be among the cheapest. Fantastic.

    Yeah, it's a huge win. Very effective, very easy to transport and very cheap. What's not to like?
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-vaccine_uk_5ea067f2c5b6b2e5b83ba372
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    OnboardG1 said:

    TOPPING said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Here's a question....the government have leaked all this go wild for a week at christmas, when they did this did they know the AZ vaccine was ready? If so, surely they should have been, we need to stick to the course, there is going to be more than enough supply for life to be back to normal by easter (thst is what hancock has just said).

    Hancock is bright enough (or experienced enough) to have realised this messaging is critically important. Lots of backbench (and cabinet) MPs are half-witted Mail surrogates who wAnT To SAve CHRistmAs.

    For me, I’m staying at home this year. I want my relatives to be alive for Easter when we can meet up safely and celebrate the resurrection of Christ and the triumph of human spirit and ingenuity.
    It's all calculated risk, albeit we don't know the precise inputs.

    I have been to see my 90-yr old mother, who lives on her own, regularly for the past six months to sit, chat, discuss books, play chess, etc.

    She wanted to, I wanted to. She knew the risks, such as they were, or at least the general risk and was happy nevertheless. So risky as it was, my mother has not suffered any loneliness, staring at relatives through windows, isolation, or Covid-related depression since this all began.

    That was worth it. Others' views may differ.

    But I'm with you on looking forward to Easter and celebrating the Chocolate bunnies.
    Sure, my parents have done the same with my Grandmother. Bubbling single people and another household isn’t particularly risky, and has been a good policy in my view. The issue is around having big, six to seven household Christmas visits where you can potentially end up with all of them having a Covid case. It just isn’t worth it in my view when a vaccine is just a month or two off.
    I live on my own. I am in a bubble with my girlfriend, who lives with her sister.

    I'll be going to spend Christmas Day my Dad, who also lives on his own. I would be doing this regardless of what the "rules" were. I don't feel this is anymore risky than a single household of five who work in different jobs and attend different schools, spending Christmas together.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    kjh said:

    On topic: They must not give Trump a deal. It is the easy option, but it is wrong. It is not only morally wrong it is strategically wrong for the long term.

    Any would be dictator needs to know that if they fail the consequences will be harsh (and that goes for people who knowingly facilitated him/her).

    Trump has come perilously close to succeeding.

    If you prosecute him, all that will happen is that he will be seen as a martyr and reinforce his support.

    It will also guarantee that the Republicans will seek to prosecute Biden on whatever grounds when he finishes being President, especially as Trump didn't seek to prosecute Clinton.
    It is not Republicans or Democrats who will prosecute Trump, but state or federal prosecutors.
    In any event we were discussing a pardon. Declining to give him one is not prosecuting him.
    A presidential pardon has no effect on State level crimes.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    With Cummings out the door, it'd make sense for the UK to fold accept a great deal for Britain
    Cummings was never the issue on a deal.

    Boris' problem in accepting "a great deal for Britain" is that his backbenchers won't support it. Or him, for trying it on.
    Glad you put that in quote marks. Backbenchers shouldn`t support it. Good, or at least adequate, deal or no deal. An extension to transition would be preferable to a bad deal.

    Do you think that Johnson`s weakening on this was a reason for Cummings going? Or was it the personal stuff re; Carrie?
    Cummings - and Boris's press chief - couldn't see how any deal was remotely compatible with the Tories' 2019 Manifesto, couldn't see how it could be sold other than as a massive climbdown and so were happy to walk away from the coming shit storm, would be my best guess of what went on.
    Yes, that`s what I thought. Oh dear, doesn`t bode well.

    So if EU won`t give us a deal that IS compatible with the Tory manifesto then what then in your opinion?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:
    Except it isn't, because it's not all about the money.

    It's remarkable how some people like Andrew Adonis keep failing to realise this.

    Perhaps that's partly deliberate, even if at a sub-conscious level, because he'd far prefer it to be about the money otherwise he'd have to accept engaging with the difficult socio-cultural issues it throws up.
    I agree with this although I imagine with a different slant to you. The notion that people succumb to their baser instincts and vote for populist hatemongers such as Donald Trump purely because they are struggling financially is a false comfort blanket. An empty bank account and poor prospects no doubt increases the appeal but it in no way explains it. For the hardcore Trump base - and for equivalents elsewhere - there is a simpler and imo better explanation. Nasty people are attracted to nasty political leaders and nasty politics - by which I mean a politics which validates and celebrates their nastiness rather than attempts to challenge and educate them out of it and/or shames them for it. I know this is an unPC sentiment, and totally contra to the traditional position of the Left that I am normally in tune with, but there you go. No point shying away from the truth if it is the truth.
    B*llocks. A lot of it is down to a lack of respect that they get shown by their PC-focused "leaders" who sprout the latest nonsense whilst feathering their own nests and protecting their own interests.
This discussion has been closed.