Since the Brexit referendum four years ago, car manufacturers on the island have been warning of a "no deal". But Prime Minister Boris Johnson apparently still believes he can dictate the terms of the EU. This denial of reality takes its toll. According to reports, Nissan is planning to shut down its Sunderland plant. "A decision has been made and it is not favorable for Great Britain," said a Nissan manager familiar with the matter. 7,000 jobs are at stake in Sunderland. It is the largest automobile plant in the kingdom. Europe boss Gianluca de Ficchy wants to make the difficult decision public in a few days. Chief Operating Officer Ashwani Gupta recently said, "If Brexit comes without a viable business model being identified, then it's no longer about Sunderland or not Sunderland. Then our entire business in Great Britain would no longer be sustainable."
So basically that only applies if No Deal, as it is more likely now we get a Deal then Nissan will stay in Sunderland after all
Finger on the northern pulse as usual. The barriers to the car industry are tariffs and customs costs/delays. A deal that imposes all three is the same as no deal. Currently Nissan moves parts and vehicles effortlessly across the border without delay. That is their viable business model. Even if we agree zero tariffs with the world on everything we're still going to impose a fuckton of slow and expensive paperwork to check at the border. Which wrecks their business model.
So no HYUFD, its not just about no deal, its about no EEA/CU. Yes, many Nissan workers voted to leave because they were told that this would not happen. I know that you want to ram it down their throat and expect them to vote Conservative, but as we have learned you are somewhat esoteric on such issues.
Opinium at the weekend had 65% of those who wanted to rejoin the EU voting Labour now and just 7% voting Tory and 52% of those supporting a trade deal where the UK is closely aligned to the EU voting Labour and just 25% voting Tory.
By contrast 72% of those supportive of a trade deal where the UK has a clean break from the EU are now voting Tory and just 15% voting Labour and 78% of those who want No Deal are voting Tory and just 4% voting Labour.
So an EEA/CU Brexit Deal would be political suicide for Boris now, even more so than No Deal and lead to mass defections from the Tories back to Farage, hence only a Canada style FTA with at most some compromise on state aid is an option https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-november-2020/
"I am willing to sacrifice world-leading industry and millions of jobs because if I don't people might not vote Conservative. So fuck them and fuck you too".
Its not the snappiest of campaign slogans is it? And whatever happened to patriotism?
Boris' primary job as Tory leader is to keep people voting Tory and respect the manifesto he was elected on to become PM
No it isn't. His primary job is being PM.
Being Tory leader is a means to an end and he should be focused on the job of being PM.
If for any reason there was a conflict between being PM and keeping people voting Tory his responsibility is to the country not the party.
If he abandoned his Tory voters he would not last as PM longer than a week, as the Tories poll ratings collapsed Tory MPs would replace him just as they replaced May
Since the Brexit referendum four years ago, car manufacturers on the island have been warning of a "no deal". But Prime Minister Boris Johnson apparently still believes he can dictate the terms of the EU. This denial of reality takes its toll. According to reports, Nissan is planning to shut down its Sunderland plant. "A decision has been made and it is not favorable for Great Britain," said a Nissan manager familiar with the matter. 7,000 jobs are at stake in Sunderland. It is the largest automobile plant in the kingdom. Europe boss Gianluca de Ficchy wants to make the difficult decision public in a few days. Chief Operating Officer Ashwani Gupta recently said, "If Brexit comes without a viable business model being identified, then it's no longer about Sunderland or not Sunderland. Then our entire business in Great Britain would no longer be sustainable."
So basically that only applies if No Deal, as it is more likely now we get a Deal then Nissan will stay in Sunderland after all
Finger on the northern pulse as usual. The barriers to the car industry are tariffs and customs costs/delays. A deal that imposes all three is the same as no deal. Currently Nissan moves parts and vehicles effortlessly across the border without delay. That is their viable business model. Even if we agree zero tariffs with the world on everything we're still going to impose a fuckton of slow and expensive paperwork to check at the border. Which wrecks their business model.
So no HYUFD, its not just about no deal, its about no EEA/CU. Yes, many Nissan workers voted to leave because they were told that this would not happen. I know that you want to ram it down their throat and expect them to vote Conservative, but as we have learned you are somewhat esoteric on such issues.
Opinium at the weekend had 65% of those who wanted to rejoin the EU voting Labour now and just 7% voting Tory and 52% of those supporting a trade deal where the UK is closely aligned to the EU voting Labour and just 25% voting Tory.
By contrast 72% of those supportive of a trade deal where the UK has a clean break from the EU are now voting Tory and just 15% voting Labour and 78% of those who want No Deal are voting Tory and just 4% voting Labour.
So an EEA/CU Brexit Deal would be political suicide for Boris now, even more so than No Deal and lead to mass defections from the Tories back to Farage, hence only a Canada style FTA with at most some compromise on state aid is an option https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-november-2020/
"I am willing to sacrifice world-leading industry and millions of jobs because if I don't people might not vote Conservative. So fuck them and fuck you too".
Its not the snappiest of campaign slogans is it? And whatever happened to patriotism?
Boris' primary job as Tory leader is to keep people voting Tory and respect the manifesto he was elected on to become PM
No it isn't. His primary job is being PM.
Being Tory leader is a means to an end and he should be focused on the job of being PM.
If for any reason there was a conflict between being PM and keeping people voting Tory his responsibility is to the country not the party.
I have to agree with HYUFD. Why else would Johnson have spent every waking moment campaigning in his hi viz coat for the duration of the pandemic?
Let's not get carried away. Nissan (and other car manufacturers) have not (yet) announced any plans to close their factories.
Indeed. Its a gossip column in a German industry magazine. So although its a better source than something off social media its still not official. But it does draw into sharp focus just what the end of EEA/CU means for this factory/that industry/general industry. Business and red tape/imposed costs aren't good bedfellows. Which is why every previous Tory government has worked so hard to remove these impediments to business which the current Tory government is so desperate to reimpose.
Since the Brexit referendum four years ago, car manufacturers on the island have been warning of a "no deal". But Prime Minister Boris Johnson apparently still believes he can dictate the terms of the EU. This denial of reality takes its toll. According to reports, Nissan is planning to shut down its Sunderland plant. "A decision has been made and it is not favorable for Great Britain," said a Nissan manager familiar with the matter. 7,000 jobs are at stake in Sunderland. It is the largest automobile plant in the kingdom. Europe boss Gianluca de Ficchy wants to make the difficult decision public in a few days. Chief Operating Officer Ashwani Gupta recently said, "If Brexit comes without a viable business model being identified, then it's no longer about Sunderland or not Sunderland. Then our entire business in Great Britain would no longer be sustainable."
So basically that only applies if No Deal, as it is more likely now we get a Deal then Nissan will stay in Sunderland after all
Finger on the northern pulse as usual. The barriers to the car industry are tariffs and customs costs/delays. A deal that imposes all three is the same as no deal. Currently Nissan moves parts and vehicles effortlessly across the border without delay. That is their viable business model. Even if we agree zero tariffs with the world on everything we're still going to impose a fuckton of slow and expensive paperwork to check at the border. Which wrecks their business model.
So no HYUFD, its not just about no deal, its about no EEA/CU. Yes, many Nissan workers voted to leave because they were told that this would not happen. I know that you want to ram it down their throat and expect them to vote Conservative, but as we have learned you are somewhat esoteric on such issues.
Opinium at the weekend had 65% of those who wanted to rejoin the EU voting Labour now and just 7% voting Tory and 52% of those supporting a trade deal where the UK is closely aligned to the EU voting Labour and just 25% voting Tory.
By contrast 72% of those supportive of a trade deal where the UK has a clean break from the EU are now voting Tory and just 15% voting Labour and 78% of those who want No Deal are voting Tory and just 4% voting Labour.
So an EEA/CU Brexit Deal would be political suicide for Boris now, even more so than No Deal and lead to mass defections from the Tories back to Farage, hence only a Canada style FTA with at most some compromise on state aid is an option https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-november-2020/
"I am willing to sacrifice world-leading industry and millions of jobs because if I don't people might not vote Conservative. So fuck them and fuck you too".
Its not the snappiest of campaign slogans is it? And whatever happened to patriotism?
Boris' primary job as Tory leader is to keep people voting Tory and respect the manifesto he was elected on to become PM
Sorry HYUFD, but I have to respectfully say that IMO this is massively wrong, and encapsulates the muddleheaded thinking of the current Tory Party membership. A Tory Party leader has a higher than average chance of being elected PM. His or her primary job and duty is therefore to be PM material so that they can lead the country in good times and bad. Boris Johnson has very poor leadership skills, is an habitual liar and is proven to be incompetent. He was a terrible choice foisted on the country at a time when Labour had chosen an even more ridiculous candidate. It is time he left office for good of himself (his main motivator), his party and the country.
Boris announcing mps should not take their pay rise puts Starmer in the position that he really will have to endorse this and in effect endorse public sector pay restraint
Don't you think Boris should be the exception, struggling on £150k, what with a trophy girlfriend and new baby? They don't come cheap! And all the time we have JRM, Owen Patterson and John Redwood earning all that extra-curricular wedge to keep the wolf from the door.
I am pleased he has made this announcement as it is the right thing to do and looks as if Starmer will endorse it
Since the Brexit referendum four years ago, car manufacturers on the island have been warning of a "no deal". But Prime Minister Boris Johnson apparently still believes he can dictate the terms of the EU. This denial of reality takes its toll. According to reports, Nissan is planning to shut down its Sunderland plant. "A decision has been made and it is not favorable for Great Britain," said a Nissan manager familiar with the matter. 7,000 jobs are at stake in Sunderland. It is the largest automobile plant in the kingdom. Europe boss Gianluca de Ficchy wants to make the difficult decision public in a few days. Chief Operating Officer Ashwani Gupta recently said, "If Brexit comes without a viable business model being identified, then it's no longer about Sunderland or not Sunderland. Then our entire business in Great Britain would no longer be sustainable."
So basically that only applies if No Deal, as it is more likely now we get a Deal then Nissan will stay in Sunderland after all
Finger on the northern pulse as usual. The barriers to the car industry are tariffs and customs costs/delays. A deal that imposes all three is the same as no deal. Currently Nissan moves parts and vehicles effortlessly across the border without delay. That is their viable business model. Even if we agree zero tariffs with the world on everything we're still going to impose a fuckton of slow and expensive paperwork to check at the border. Which wrecks their business model.
So no HYUFD, its not just about no deal, its about no EEA/CU. Yes, many Nissan workers voted to leave because they were told that this would not happen. I know that you want to ram it down their throat and expect them to vote Conservative, but as we have learned you are somewhat esoteric on such issues.
Opinium at the weekend had 65% of those who wanted to rejoin the EU voting Labour now and just 7% voting Tory and 52% of those supporting a trade deal where the UK is closely aligned to the EU voting Labour and just 25% voting Tory.
By contrast 72% of those supportive of a trade deal where the UK has a clean break from the EU are now voting Tory and just 15% voting Labour and 78% of those who want No Deal are voting Tory and just 4% voting Labour.
So an EEA/CU Brexit Deal would be political suicide for Boris now, even more so than No Deal and lead to mass defections from the Tories back to Farage, hence only a Canada style FTA with at most some compromise on state aid is an option https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-november-2020/
"I am willing to sacrifice world-leading industry and millions of jobs because if I don't people might not vote Conservative. So fuck them and fuck you too".
Its not the snappiest of campaign slogans is it? And whatever happened to patriotism?
Boris' primary job as Tory leader is to keep people voting Tory and respect the manifesto he was elected on to become PM
In which case why is he being paid £150K pa, out of public funds, plus NI and overheads, in a job with which his conduct as Conservative Party leader massively conflicts?
Since the Brexit referendum four years ago, car manufacturers on the island have been warning of a "no deal". But Prime Minister Boris Johnson apparently still believes he can dictate the terms of the EU. This denial of reality takes its toll. According to reports, Nissan is planning to shut down its Sunderland plant. "A decision has been made and it is not favorable for Great Britain," said a Nissan manager familiar with the matter. 7,000 jobs are at stake in Sunderland. It is the largest automobile plant in the kingdom. Europe boss Gianluca de Ficchy wants to make the difficult decision public in a few days. Chief Operating Officer Ashwani Gupta recently said, "If Brexit comes without a viable business model being identified, then it's no longer about Sunderland or not Sunderland. Then our entire business in Great Britain would no longer be sustainable."
So basically that only applies if No Deal, as it is more likely now we get a Deal then Nissan will stay in Sunderland after all
Finger on the northern pulse as usual. The barriers to the car industry are tariffs and customs costs/delays. A deal that imposes all three is the same as no deal. Currently Nissan moves parts and vehicles effortlessly across the border without delay. That is their viable business model. Even if we agree zero tariffs with the world on everything we're still going to impose a fuckton of slow and expensive paperwork to check at the border. Which wrecks their business model.
So no HYUFD, its not just about no deal, its about no EEA/CU. Yes, many Nissan workers voted to leave because they were told that this would not happen. I know that you want to ram it down their throat and expect them to vote Conservative, but as we have learned you are somewhat esoteric on such issues.
Opinium at the weekend had 65% of those who wanted to rejoin the EU voting Labour now and just 7% voting Tory and 52% of those supporting a trade deal where the UK is closely aligned to the EU voting Labour and just 25% voting Tory.
By contrast 72% of those supportive of a trade deal where the UK has a clean break from the EU are now voting Tory and just 15% voting Labour and 78% of those who want No Deal are voting Tory and just 4% voting Labour.
So an EEA/CU Brexit Deal would be political suicide for Boris now, even more so than No Deal and lead to mass defections from the Tories back to Farage, hence only a Canada style FTA with at most some compromise on state aid is an option https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-november-2020/
"I am willing to sacrifice world-leading industry and millions of jobs because if I don't people might not vote Conservative. So fuck them and fuck you too".
Its not the snappiest of campaign slogans is it? And whatever happened to patriotism?
Boris' primary job as Tory leader is to keep people voting Tory and respect the manifesto he was elected on to become PM
No it isn't. His primary job is being PM.
Being Tory leader is a means to an end and he should be focused on the job of being PM.
If for any reason there was a conflict between being PM and keeping people voting Tory his responsibility is to the country not the party.
If he abandoned his Tory voters he would not last as PM longer than a week, as the Tories poll ratings collapsed Tory MPs would replace him just as they replaced May
Since the Brexit referendum four years ago, car manufacturers on the island have been warning of a "no deal". But Prime Minister Boris Johnson apparently still believes he can dictate the terms of the EU. This denial of reality takes its toll. According to reports, Nissan is planning to shut down its Sunderland plant. "A decision has been made and it is not favorable for Great Britain," said a Nissan manager familiar with the matter. 7,000 jobs are at stake in Sunderland. It is the largest automobile plant in the kingdom. Europe boss Gianluca de Ficchy wants to make the difficult decision public in a few days. Chief Operating Officer Ashwani Gupta recently said, "If Brexit comes without a viable business model being identified, then it's no longer about Sunderland or not Sunderland. Then our entire business in Great Britain would no longer be sustainable."
So basically that only applies if No Deal, as it is more likely now we get a Deal then Nissan will stay in Sunderland after all
Finger on the northern pulse as usual. The barriers to the car industry are tariffs and customs costs/delays. A deal that imposes all three is the same as no deal. Currently Nissan moves parts and vehicles effortlessly across the border without delay. That is their viable business model. Even if we agree zero tariffs with the world on everything we're still going to impose a fuckton of slow and expensive paperwork to check at the border. Which wrecks their business model.
So no HYUFD, its not just about no deal, its about no EEA/CU. Yes, many Nissan workers voted to leave because they were told that this would not happen. I know that you want to ram it down their throat and expect them to vote Conservative, but as we have learned you are somewhat esoteric on such issues.
Opinium at the weekend had 65% of those who wanted to rejoin the EU voting Labour now and just 7% voting Tory and 52% of those supporting a trade deal where the UK is closely aligned to the EU voting Labour and just 25% voting Tory.
By contrast 72% of those supportive of a trade deal where the UK has a clean break from the EU are now voting Tory and just 15% voting Labour and 78% of those who want No Deal are voting Tory and just 4% voting Labour.
So an EEA/CU Brexit Deal would be political suicide for Boris now, even more so than No Deal and lead to mass defections from the Tories back to Farage, hence only a Canada style FTA with at most some compromise on state aid is an option https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-november-2020/
"I am willing to sacrifice world-leading industry and millions of jobs because if I don't people might not vote Conservative. So fuck them and fuck you too".
Its not the snappiest of campaign slogans is it? And whatever happened to patriotism?
Boris' primary job as Tory leader is to keep people voting Tory and respect the manifesto he was elected on to become PM
Yes, but he has an even primarier job as Prime Minister. Does the expression "country before party" resonate with you at all?
Boris announcing mps should not take their pay rise puts Starmer in the position that he really will have to endorse this and in effect endorse public sector pay restraint
But as another poster has observed, SKS did this already weeks ago.
When did SKS state mps should not receive a pay rise due to the covid crisis
Its' back up the thread somewhere. I only remembered it when you mentioned it (sorry: am having break from revising very tedious typescript., and had better get back to it).
Edit: or maybe previous one. Not bneing rude!
I know you are not being rude but to be fair if SKS has made the point I do not recall him making it
Since the Brexit referendum four years ago, car manufacturers on the island have been warning of a "no deal". But Prime Minister Boris Johnson apparently still believes he can dictate the terms of the EU. This denial of reality takes its toll. According to reports, Nissan is planning to shut down its Sunderland plant. "A decision has been made and it is not favorable for Great Britain," said a Nissan manager familiar with the matter. 7,000 jobs are at stake in Sunderland. It is the largest automobile plant in the kingdom. Europe boss Gianluca de Ficchy wants to make the difficult decision public in a few days. Chief Operating Officer Ashwani Gupta recently said, "If Brexit comes without a viable business model being identified, then it's no longer about Sunderland or not Sunderland. Then our entire business in Great Britain would no longer be sustainable."
So basically that only applies if No Deal, as it is more likely now we get a Deal then Nissan will stay in Sunderland after all
Finger on the northern pulse as usual. The barriers to the car industry are tariffs and customs costs/delays. A deal that imposes all three is the same as no deal. Currently Nissan moves parts and vehicles effortlessly across the border without delay. That is their viable business model. Even if we agree zero tariffs with the world on everything we're still going to impose a fuckton of slow and expensive paperwork to check at the border. Which wrecks their business model.
So no HYUFD, its not just about no deal, its about no EEA/CU. Yes, many Nissan workers voted to leave because they were told that this would not happen. I know that you want to ram it down their throat and expect them to vote Conservative, but as we have learned you are somewhat esoteric on such issues.
Opinium at the weekend had 65% of those who wanted to rejoin the EU voting Labour now and just 7% voting Tory and 52% of those supporting a trade deal where the UK is closely aligned to the EU voting Labour and just 25% voting Tory.
By contrast 72% of those supportive of a trade deal where the UK has a clean break from the EU are now voting Tory and just 15% voting Labour and 78% of those who want No Deal are voting Tory and just 4% voting Labour.
So an EEA/CU Brexit Deal would be political suicide for Boris now, even more so than No Deal and lead to mass defections from the Tories back to Farage, hence only a Canada style FTA with at most some compromise on state aid is an option https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-november-2020/
"I am willing to sacrifice world-leading industry and millions of jobs because if I don't people might not vote Conservative. So fuck them and fuck you too".
Its not the snappiest of campaign slogans is it? And whatever happened to patriotism?
Boris' primary job as Tory leader is to keep people voting Tory and respect the manifesto he was elected on to become PM
Sorry HYUFD, but I have to respectfully say that IMO this is massively wrong, and encapsulates the muddleheaded thinking of the current Tory Party membership. A Tory Party leader has a higher than average chance of being elected PM. His or her primary job and duty is therefore to be PM material so that they can lead the country in good times and bad. Boris Johnson has very poor leadership skills, is an habitual liar and is proven to be incompetent. He was a terrible choice foisted on the country at a time when Labour had chosen an even more ridiculous candidate. It is time he left office for good of himself (his main motivator), his party and the country.
This has got nothing to do with Boris personally, if Rishi Sunak replaced him as PM and pursued an EEA/CU Brexit or cancelled Brexit and rejoined the EU he would also see the Tories collapse to third behind not only Labour but Farage's Party too, it would be an extinction level event for the Tory Party whoever led them
Since the Brexit referendum four years ago, car manufacturers on the island have been warning of a "no deal". But Prime Minister Boris Johnson apparently still believes he can dictate the terms of the EU. This denial of reality takes its toll. According to reports, Nissan is planning to shut down its Sunderland plant. "A decision has been made and it is not favorable for Great Britain," said a Nissan manager familiar with the matter. 7,000 jobs are at stake in Sunderland. It is the largest automobile plant in the kingdom. Europe boss Gianluca de Ficchy wants to make the difficult decision public in a few days. Chief Operating Officer Ashwani Gupta recently said, "If Brexit comes without a viable business model being identified, then it's no longer about Sunderland or not Sunderland. Then our entire business in Great Britain would no longer be sustainable."
So basically that only applies if No Deal, as it is more likely now we get a Deal then Nissan will stay in Sunderland after all
Finger on the northern pulse as usual. The barriers to the car industry are tariffs and customs costs/delays. A deal that imposes all three is the same as no deal. Currently Nissan moves parts and vehicles effortlessly across the border without delay. That is their viable business model. Even if we agree zero tariffs with the world on everything we're still going to impose a fuckton of slow and expensive paperwork to check at the border. Which wrecks their business model.
So no HYUFD, its not just about no deal, its about no EEA/CU. Yes, many Nissan workers voted to leave because they were told that this would not happen. I know that you want to ram it down their throat and expect them to vote Conservative, but as we have learned you are somewhat esoteric on such issues.
Opinium at the weekend had 65% of those who wanted to rejoin the EU voting Labour now and just 7% voting Tory and 52% of those supporting a trade deal where the UK is closely aligned to the EU voting Labour and just 25% voting Tory.
By contrast 72% of those supportive of a trade deal where the UK has a clean break from the EU are now voting Tory and just 15% voting Labour and 78% of those who want No Deal are voting Tory and just 4% voting Labour.
So an EEA/CU Brexit Deal would be political suicide for Boris now, even more so than No Deal and lead to mass defections from the Tories back to Farage, hence only a Canada style FTA with at most some compromise on state aid is an option https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-november-2020/
"I am willing to sacrifice world-leading industry and millions of jobs because if I don't people might not vote Conservative. So fuck them and fuck you too".
Its not the snappiest of campaign slogans is it? And whatever happened to patriotism?
Boris' primary job as Tory leader is to keep people voting Tory and respect the manifesto he was elected on to become PM
There are a couple of problems with that admirable aim.
The first is that the manifesto also promised "We will negotiate a trade agreement next year – one that will strengthen our Union" The deal Boris seems to have wanted appears to be one that the EU isn't prepared to give. So which manifesto promise should BoJo break? The one describing the deal he wants, or the one saying there will be a deal?
Second problem is that the respect of the manifesto might be in conflict with keeping people voting blue. Take the Poll Tax. Yes, it was in the 1987 manifesto. But, with hindsight (or even reasonable foresight, given the data at https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/community-charge) would the Conservative party have been wise to not implement it?
Since the Brexit referendum four years ago, car manufacturers on the island have been warning of a "no deal". But Prime Minister Boris Johnson apparently still believes he can dictate the terms of the EU. This denial of reality takes its toll. According to reports, Nissan is planning to shut down its Sunderland plant. "A decision has been made and it is not favorable for Great Britain," said a Nissan manager familiar with the matter. 7,000 jobs are at stake in Sunderland. It is the largest automobile plant in the kingdom. Europe boss Gianluca de Ficchy wants to make the difficult decision public in a few days. Chief Operating Officer Ashwani Gupta recently said, "If Brexit comes without a viable business model being identified, then it's no longer about Sunderland or not Sunderland. Then our entire business in Great Britain would no longer be sustainable."
So basically that only applies if No Deal, as it is more likely now we get a Deal then Nissan will stay in Sunderland after all
Bozo has perhaps at last come round to "a bad deal is better than no deal", and however much he tries to dress it up, that is what it will be.
A basic Deal I agree and of course an EEA/CU style Brexit was only and is only viable with a Labour PM and it is ludicrous to suggest otherwise, the Tories are not going to commit political suicide again with a soft Brexit that leads to half their vote going back to Farage and the Brexit Party or his new outfit Reform UK
You do come out with some idiotic things. Why would people support an anti-lockdown party once they are all vaccinated?
Since the Brexit referendum four years ago, car manufacturers on the island have been warning of a "no deal". But Prime Minister Boris Johnson apparently still believes he can dictate the terms of the EU. This denial of reality takes its toll. According to reports, Nissan is planning to shut down its Sunderland plant. "A decision has been made and it is not favorable for Great Britain," said a Nissan manager familiar with the matter. 7,000 jobs are at stake in Sunderland. It is the largest automobile plant in the kingdom. Europe boss Gianluca de Ficchy wants to make the difficult decision public in a few days. Chief Operating Officer Ashwani Gupta recently said, "If Brexit comes without a viable business model being identified, then it's no longer about Sunderland or not Sunderland. Then our entire business in Great Britain would no longer be sustainable."
So basically that only applies if No Deal, as it is more likely now we get a Deal then Nissan will stay in Sunderland after all
Finger on the northern pulse as usual. The barriers to the car industry are tariffs and customs costs/delays. A deal that imposes all three is the same as no deal. Currently Nissan moves parts and vehicles effortlessly across the border without delay. That is their viable business model. Even if we agree zero tariffs with the world on everything we're still going to impose a fuckton of slow and expensive paperwork to check at the border. Which wrecks their business model.
So no HYUFD, its not just about no deal, its about no EEA/CU. Yes, many Nissan workers voted to leave because they were told that this would not happen. I know that you want to ram it down their throat and expect them to vote Conservative, but as we have learned you are somewhat esoteric on such issues.
Opinium at the weekend had 65% of those who wanted to rejoin the EU voting Labour now and just 7% voting Tory and 52% of those supporting a trade deal where the UK is closely aligned to the EU voting Labour and just 25% voting Tory.
By contrast 72% of those supportive of a trade deal where the UK has a clean break from the EU are now voting Tory and just 15% voting Labour and 78% of those who want No Deal are voting Tory and just 4% voting Labour.
So an EEA/CU Brexit Deal would be political suicide for Boris now, even more so than No Deal and lead to mass defections from the Tories back to Farage, hence only a Canada style FTA with at most some compromise on state aid is an option https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-november-2020/
"I am willing to sacrifice world-leading industry and millions of jobs because if I don't people might not vote Conservative. So fuck them and fuck you too".
Its not the snappiest of campaign slogans is it? And whatever happened to patriotism?
Boris' primary job as Tory leader is to keep people voting Tory and respect the manifesto he was elected on to become PM
Yes, but he has an even primarier job as Prime Minister. Does the expression "country before party" resonate with you at all?
It doesn't resonate with Johnson, so why should it with HYUFD?
Since the Brexit referendum four years ago, car manufacturers on the island have been warning of a "no deal". But Prime Minister Boris Johnson apparently still believes he can dictate the terms of the EU. This denial of reality takes its toll. According to reports, Nissan is planning to shut down its Sunderland plant. "A decision has been made and it is not favorable for Great Britain," said a Nissan manager familiar with the matter. 7,000 jobs are at stake in Sunderland. It is the largest automobile plant in the kingdom. Europe boss Gianluca de Ficchy wants to make the difficult decision public in a few days. Chief Operating Officer Ashwani Gupta recently said, "If Brexit comes without a viable business model being identified, then it's no longer about Sunderland or not Sunderland. Then our entire business in Great Britain would no longer be sustainable."
So basically that only applies if No Deal, as it is more likely now we get a Deal then Nissan will stay in Sunderland after all
Finger on the northern pulse as usual. The barriers to the car industry are tariffs and customs costs/delays. A deal that imposes all three is the same as no deal. Currently Nissan moves parts and vehicles effortlessly across the border without delay. That is their viable business model. Even if we agree zero tariffs with the world on everything we're still going to impose a fuckton of slow and expensive paperwork to check at the border. Which wrecks their business model.
So no HYUFD, its not just about no deal, its about no EEA/CU. Yes, many Nissan workers voted to leave because they were told that this would not happen. I know that you want to ram it down their throat and expect them to vote Conservative, but as we have learned you are somewhat esoteric on such issues.
Opinium at the weekend had 65% of those who wanted to rejoin the EU voting Labour now and just 7% voting Tory and 52% of those supporting a trade deal where the UK is closely aligned to the EU voting Labour and just 25% voting Tory.
By contrast 72% of those supportive of a trade deal where the UK has a clean break from the EU are now voting Tory and just 15% voting Labour and 78% of those who want No Deal are voting Tory and just 4% voting Labour.
So an EEA/CU Brexit Deal would be political suicide for Boris now, even more so than No Deal and lead to mass defections from the Tories back to Farage, hence only a Canada style FTA with at most some compromise on state aid is an option https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-november-2020/
"I am willing to sacrifice world-leading industry and millions of jobs because if I don't people might not vote Conservative. So fuck them and fuck you too".
Its not the snappiest of campaign slogans is it? And whatever happened to patriotism?
Boris' primary job as Tory leader is to keep people voting Tory and respect the manifesto he was elected on to become PM
The one with the oven ready deal and levelling up for the north?
As against trashing his own deal, breaking the law, and giving all the juicy contracts to his school and uni mates.
Since the Brexit referendum four years ago, car manufacturers on the island have been warning of a "no deal". But Prime Minister Boris Johnson apparently still believes he can dictate the terms of the EU. This denial of reality takes its toll. According to reports, Nissan is planning to shut down its Sunderland plant. "A decision has been made and it is not favorable for Great Britain," said a Nissan manager familiar with the matter. 7,000 jobs are at stake in Sunderland. It is the largest automobile plant in the kingdom. Europe boss Gianluca de Ficchy wants to make the difficult decision public in a few days. Chief Operating Officer Ashwani Gupta recently said, "If Brexit comes without a viable business model being identified, then it's no longer about Sunderland or not Sunderland. Then our entire business in Great Britain would no longer be sustainable."
So basically that only applies if No Deal, as it is more likely now we get a Deal then Nissan will stay in Sunderland after all
Finger on the northern pulse as usual. The barriers to the car industry are tariffs and customs costs/delays. A deal that imposes all three is the same as no deal. Currently Nissan moves parts and vehicles effortlessly across the border without delay. That is their viable business model. Even if we agree zero tariffs with the world on everything we're still going to impose a fuckton of slow and expensive paperwork to check at the border. Which wrecks their business model.
So no HYUFD, its not just about no deal, its about no EEA/CU. Yes, many Nissan workers voted to leave because they were told that this would not happen. I know that you want to ram it down their throat and expect them to vote Conservative, but as we have learned you are somewhat esoteric on such issues.
Opinium at the weekend had 65% of those who wanted to rejoin the EU voting Labour now and just 7% voting Tory and 52% of those supporting a trade deal where the UK is closely aligned to the EU voting Labour and just 25% voting Tory.
By contrast 72% of those supportive of a trade deal where the UK has a clean break from the EU are now voting Tory and just 15% voting Labour and 78% of those who want No Deal are voting Tory and just 4% voting Labour.
So an EEA/CU Brexit Deal would be political suicide for Boris now, even more so than No Deal and lead to mass defections from the Tories back to Farage, hence only a Canada style FTA with at most some compromise on state aid is an option https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-november-2020/
"I am willing to sacrifice world-leading industry and millions of jobs because if I don't people might not vote Conservative. So fuck them and fuck you too".
Its not the snappiest of campaign slogans is it? And whatever happened to patriotism?
Boris' primary job as Tory leader is to keep people voting Tory and respect the manifesto he was elected on to become PM
Sorry HYUFD, but I have to respectfully say that IMO this is massively wrong, and encapsulates the muddleheaded thinking of the current Tory Party membership. A Tory Party leader has a higher than average chance of being elected PM. His or her primary job and duty is therefore to be PM material so that they can lead the country in good times and bad. Boris Johnson has very poor leadership skills, is an habitual liar and is proven to be incompetent. He was a terrible choice foisted on the country at a time when Labour had chosen an even more ridiculous candidate. It is time he left office for good of himself (his main motivator), his party and the country.
This has got nothing to do with Boris personally, if Rishi Sunak replaced him as PM and pursued an EEA/CU Brexit or cancelled Brexit and rejoined the EU he would also see the Tories collapse to third behind not only Labour but Farage's Party too, it would be an extinction level event for the Tory Party whoever led them
But the Tory MPs and Party insisted on having Mt Johnson. Nobody else.
I am pleased he has made this announcement as it is the right thing to do and looks as if Starmer will endorse it
Obviously, MPs exercising pay restraint is welcome but let's not forget there are many public sector workers (despite what @NerysHughes would have you believe) who have worked tirelessly through the Covid crisis such as aduly and child social care workers as well as emergency management teams, staff redeployed from other areas and less heroes and heroines such as drivers, street cleaners and that's before we think of those in the NHS and emergency services who have literally put their own health at risk to keep people alive.
I think there are those in the public sector who do deserve recognition and increased remuneration.
Boris announcing mps should not take their pay rise puts Starmer in the position that he really will have to endorse this and in effect endorse public sector pay restraint
But as another poster has observed, SKS did this already weeks ago.
When did SKS state mps should not receive a pay rise due to the covid crisis
Its' back up the thread somewhere. I only remembered it when you mentioned it (sorry: am having break from revising very tedious typescript., and had better get back to it).
Edit: or maybe previous one. Not bneing rude!
I know you are not being rude but to be fair if SKS has made the point I do not recall him making it
Expect @Philip_Thompson to be along any moment and declare this as another example of 'Captain Hindsight' belatedly following Johnson's lead by er... Oh, minus six weeks.
I am pleased he has made this announcement as it is the right thing to do and looks as if Starmer will endorse it
Obviously, MPs exercising pay restraint is welcome but let's not forget there are many public sector workers (despite what @NerysHughes would have you believe) who have worked tirelessly through the Covid crisis such as aduly and child social care workers as well as emergency management teams, staff redeployed from other areas and less heroes and heroines such as drivers, street cleaners and that's before we think of those in the NHS and emergency services who have literally put their own health at risk to keep people alive.
I think there are those in the public sector who do deserve recognition and increased remuneration.
As far as I am aware a large number of those you name will receive pay awards
Since the Brexit referendum four years ago, car manufacturers on the island have been warning of a "no deal". But Prime Minister Boris Johnson apparently still believes he can dictate the terms of the EU. This denial of reality takes its toll. According to reports, Nissan is planning to shut down its Sunderland plant. "A decision has been made and it is not favorable for Great Britain," said a Nissan manager familiar with the matter. 7,000 jobs are at stake in Sunderland. It is the largest automobile plant in the kingdom. Europe boss Gianluca de Ficchy wants to make the difficult decision public in a few days. Chief Operating Officer Ashwani Gupta recently said, "If Brexit comes without a viable business model being identified, then it's no longer about Sunderland or not Sunderland. Then our entire business in Great Britain would no longer be sustainable."
So basically that only applies if No Deal, as it is more likely now we get a Deal then Nissan will stay in Sunderland after all
Finger on the northern pulse as usual. The barriers to the car industry are tariffs and customs costs/delays. A deal that imposes all three is the same as no deal. Currently Nissan moves parts and vehicles effortlessly across the border without delay. That is their viable business model. Even if we agree zero tariffs with the world on everything we're still going to impose a fuckton of slow and expensive paperwork to check at the border. Which wrecks their business model.
So no HYUFD, its not just about no deal, its about no EEA/CU. Yes, many Nissan workers voted to leave because they were told that this would not happen. I know that you want to ram it down their throat and expect them to vote Conservative, but as we have learned you are somewhat esoteric on such issues.
Opinium at the weekend had 65% of those who wanted to rejoin the EU voting Labour now and just 7% voting Tory and 52% of those supporting a trade deal where the UK is closely aligned to the EU voting Labour and just 25% voting Tory.
By contrast 72% of those supportive of a trade deal where the UK has a clean break from the EU are now voting Tory and just 15% voting Labour and 78% of those who want No Deal are voting Tory and just 4% voting Labour.
So an EEA/CU Brexit Deal would be political suicide for Boris now, even more so than No Deal and lead to mass defections from the Tories back to Farage, hence only a Canada style FTA with at most some compromise on state aid is an option https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-november-2020/
"I am willing to sacrifice world-leading industry and millions of jobs because if I don't people might not vote Conservative. So fuck them and fuck you too".
Its not the snappiest of campaign slogans is it? And whatever happened to patriotism?
Boris' primary job as Tory leader is to keep people voting Tory and respect the manifesto he was elected on to become PM
No it isn't. His primary job is being PM.
Being Tory leader is a means to an end and he should be focused on the job of being PM.
If for any reason there was a conflict between being PM and keeping people voting Tory his responsibility is to the country not the party.
If he abandoned his Tory voters he would not last as PM longer than a week, as the Tories poll ratings collapsed Tory MPs would replace him just as they replaced May
This is the sort of thinking that's led the GOP to the sewer in US politics. As the imminent election of Biden shows it won't be worn by the public past a certain point.
Mr. NorthWales, it's why I pay attention to current events here, but rarely watch the news now.
Similar to sports pundits. They're paid to be interesting. But not correct. The main reason I keep my enormo-haddock blog is that the public record helps focus my mind on betting sensibly.
Since the Brexit referendum four years ago, car manufacturers on the island have been warning of a "no deal". But Prime Minister Boris Johnson apparently still believes he can dictate the terms of the EU. This denial of reality takes its toll. According to reports, Nissan is planning to shut down its Sunderland plant. "A decision has been made and it is not favorable for Great Britain," said a Nissan manager familiar with the matter. 7,000 jobs are at stake in Sunderland. It is the largest automobile plant in the kingdom. Europe boss Gianluca de Ficchy wants to make the difficult decision public in a few days. Chief Operating Officer Ashwani Gupta recently said, "If Brexit comes without a viable business model being identified, then it's no longer about Sunderland or not Sunderland. Then our entire business in Great Britain would no longer be sustainable."
So basically that only applies if No Deal, as it is more likely now we get a Deal then Nissan will stay in Sunderland after all
Finger on the northern pulse as usual. The barriers to the car industry are tariffs and customs costs/delays. A deal that imposes all three is the same as no deal. Currently Nissan moves parts and vehicles effortlessly across the border without delay. That is their viable business model. Even if we agree zero tariffs with the world on everything we're still going to impose a fuckton of slow and expensive paperwork to check at the border. Which wrecks their business model.
So no HYUFD, its not just about no deal, its about no EEA/CU. Yes, many Nissan workers voted to leave because they were told that this would not happen. I know that you want to ram it down their throat and expect them to vote Conservative, but as we have learned you are somewhat esoteric on such issues.
Opinium at the weekend had 65% of those who wanted to rejoin the EU voting Labour now and just 7% voting Tory and 52% of those supporting a trade deal where the UK is closely aligned to the EU voting Labour and just 25% voting Tory.
By contrast 72% of those supportive of a trade deal where the UK has a clean break from the EU are now voting Tory and just 15% voting Labour and 78% of those who want No Deal are voting Tory and just 4% voting Labour.
So an EEA/CU Brexit Deal would be political suicide for Boris now, even more so than No Deal and lead to mass defections from the Tories back to Farage, hence only a Canada style FTA with at most some compromise on state aid is an option https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-november-2020/
"I am willing to sacrifice world-leading industry and millions of jobs because if I don't people might not vote Conservative. So fuck them and fuck you too".
Its not the snappiest of campaign slogans is it? And whatever happened to patriotism?
Boris' primary job as Tory leader is to keep people voting Tory and respect the manifesto he was elected on to become PM
No it isn't. His primary job is being PM.
Being Tory leader is a means to an end and he should be focused on the job of being PM.
If for any reason there was a conflict between being PM and keeping people voting Tory his responsibility is to the country not the party.
If he abandoned his Tory voters he would not last as PM longer than a week, as the Tories poll ratings collapsed Tory MPs would replace him just as they replaced May
This is the sort of thinking that's led the GOP to the sewer in US politics. As the imminent election of Biden shows it won't be worn by the public past a certain point.
Oxford just held a press briefing where Prof Pollard said he’s happy that the 90% sub sample is large and robust enough to take to the regulators. That’s good news and allays some of the confusion earlier about hints of this and that.
Sub samples, on PB??
*Statistically significant* sub samples.
It's not just a subsample though, but a cherry-picked subsample. Hopefully they are adjusting the significance thresholds accordingly.
I don't understand why you say it's "cherry picked".
They used two different regimens, and have reported separate results for each. What would have been the point of using two different regimens, if they weren't planning to analyse them separately? If it had been an _unplanned_ analysis, you could obviously describe it as "cherry picked". But if they weren't planning to analyse the results of this regimen, why would they have used it?
It's cherry-picked because we're picking the 90% subsample over the 62% one, without knowing why they should be different. The statistical analysis has to account for the possibility that the 90% subsample is only better by luck. (No I don't know how to do it.)
As an analogy, let's say you do a hundred coin tosses, 50 before sunset and 50 after. Before sunset you happen to get 30 heads and 20 tails, and the other way round after, so 50/50 overall. You might conclude that you can increase your chances to get heads to 60% by tossing your coin before sunset, but that's obviously nonsense.
I'm afraid that still makes no sense to me. There are two regimens, and results have been given for both of them. It's possible the difference is owing to chance, but it doesn't look very likely to me, because there's a relatively small overlap between the confidence intervals.
Certainly you can't say "the vaccine has 90%" efficacy, any more than you can say it has 62% efficacy. But you can say that about the two regimens separately - though as I already said, they should give confidence intervals to reflect the statistical uncertainty.
Okay, let me try a slightly different tack.
Two coins, hundred throws each. For each one, the expected heads is 50. But due to random variation, when doing hundred throws each and then picking out the one with more heads, the expected value actually is a bit higher. Not sure about the exact number, but maybe 55.
In other words, by running two experiments in parallel and picking out the better one, you introduce a bit of bias compared to just running one.
I'm not saying that's an invalid thing to do. I am saying it needs to be taken into account in the statistical analysis of the picked-out subsample.
It’s not a picked out sub sample - it’s two predefined different experiments.
Yes, that's really important. You could, of course, segment data in all sorts of ways to show the vaccine was 98% successful on blondes born on a Thursday, but that would be meaningless. However, different dosing strategies is quite obviously something the scientists deliberately set up.
Also, whilst it's true that, if you set up two experiments, it could be that one would have stronger results than another, there are in fact statistical tests you can do that tell you the probability that the true efficacy rate significantly differs between the two, and the range of efficacy rates associated with each dosing regime (with a probability level of 99% or whatever the requirement is from the relevant agencies). So in the coin tossing example, yes you may get 48 heads with coin one and 55 with coin two, but you can quite easily statistically test whether or not that's significant and whether one can conclude there is a meaningful difference between the coins (to whatever the degree of probability you need is).
It sounds to me a little bit like the following set up: Experiment 1: You roll a die 100 times, and take the average. Experiment 2: You roll a pair of dice 100 times, and take the average of the higher value.
The experiments will yield very different "success" rates, and they should be reported separately. Averaging them probably makes no sense.
This might be horribly misleading, so don't pull me to pieces if I'm dead wrong, but that my current mental model for these studies.
Oxford just held a press briefing where Prof Pollard said he’s happy that the 90% sub sample is large and robust enough to take to the regulators. That’s good news and allays some of the confusion earlier about hints of this and that.
Sub samples, on PB??
*Statistically significant* sub samples.
It's not just a subsample though, but a cherry-picked subsample. Hopefully they are adjusting the significance thresholds accordingly.
I don't understand why you say it's "cherry picked".
They used two different regimens, and have reported separate results for each. What would have been the point of using two different regimens, if they weren't planning to analyse them separately? If it had been an _unplanned_ analysis, you could obviously describe it as "cherry picked". But if they weren't planning to analyse the results of this regimen, why would they have used it?
It's cherry-picked because we're picking the 90% subsample over the 62% one, without knowing why they should be different. The statistical analysis has to account for the possibility that the 90% subsample is only better by luck. (No I don't know how to do it.)
As an analogy, let's say you do a hundred coin tosses, 50 before sunset and 50 after. Before sunset you happen to get 30 heads and 20 tails, and the other way round after, so 50/50 overall. You might conclude that you can increase your chances to get heads to 60% by tossing your coin before sunset, but that's obviously nonsense.
I'm afraid that still makes no sense to me. There are two regimens, and results have been given for both of them. It's possible the difference is owing to chance, but it doesn't look very likely to me, because there's a relatively small overlap between the confidence intervals.
Certainly you can't say "the vaccine has 90%" efficacy, any more than you can say it has 62% efficacy. But you can say that about the two regimens separately - though as I already said, they should give confidence intervals to reflect the statistical uncertainty.
Okay, let me try a slightly different tack.
Two coins, hundred throws each. For each one, the expected heads is 50. But due to random variation, when doing hundred throws each and then picking out the one with more heads, the expected value actually is a bit higher. Not sure about the exact number, but maybe 55.
In other words, by running two experiments in parallel and picking out the better one, you introduce a bit of bias compared to just running one.
I'm not saying that's an invalid thing to do. I am saying it needs to be taken into account in the statistical analysis of the picked-out subsample.
It’s not a picked out sub sample - it’s two predefined different experiments.
Yes, that's really important. You could, of course, segment data in all sorts of ways to show the vaccine was 98% successful on blondes born on a Thursday, but that would be meaningless. However, different dosing strategies is quite obviously something the scientists deliberately set up.
Also, whilst it's true that, if you set up two experiments, it could be that one would have stronger results than another, there are in fact statistical tests you can do that tell you the probability that the true efficacy rate significantly differs between the two, and the range of efficacy rates associated with each dosing regime (with a probability level of 99% or whatever the requirement is from the relevant agencies). So in the coin tossing example, yes you may get 48 heads with coin one and 55 with coin two, but you can quite easily statistically test whether or not that's significant and whether one can conclude there is a meaningful difference between the coins (to whatever the degree of probability you need is).
It sounds to me a little bit like the following set up: Experiment 1: You roll a die 100 times, and take the average. Experiment 2: You roll a pair of dice 100 times, and take the average of the higher value.
The experiments will yield very different "success" rates, and they should be reported separately. Averaging them probably makes no sense.
This might be horribly misleading, so don't pull me to pieces if I'm dead wrong, but that my current mental model for these studies.
Oxford just held a press briefing where Prof Pollard said he’s happy that the 90% sub sample is large and robust enough to take to the regulators. That’s good news and allays some of the confusion earlier about hints of this and that.
Sub samples, on PB??
*Statistically significant* sub samples.
It's not just a subsample though, but a cherry-picked subsample. Hopefully they are adjusting the significance thresholds accordingly.
I don't understand why you say it's "cherry picked".
They used two different regimens, and have reported separate results for each. What would have been the point of using two different regimens, if they weren't planning to analyse them separately? If it had been an _unplanned_ analysis, you could obviously describe it as "cherry picked". But if they weren't planning to analyse the results of this regimen, why would they have used it?
It's cherry-picked because we're picking the 90% subsample over the 62% one, without knowing why they should be different. The statistical analysis has to account for the possibility that the 90% subsample is only better by luck. (No I don't know how to do it.)
As an analogy, let's say you do a hundred coin tosses, 50 before sunset and 50 after. Before sunset you happen to get 30 heads and 20 tails, and the other way round after, so 50/50 overall. You might conclude that you can increase your chances to get heads to 60% by tossing your coin before sunset, but that's obviously nonsense.
I'm afraid that still makes no sense to me. There are two regimens, and results have been given for both of them. It's possible the difference is owing to chance, but it doesn't look very likely to me, because there's a relatively small overlap between the confidence intervals.
Certainly you can't say "the vaccine has 90%" efficacy, any more than you can say it has 62% efficacy. But you can say that about the two regimens separately - though as I already said, they should give confidence intervals to reflect the statistical uncertainty.
Okay, let me try a slightly different tack.
Two coins, hundred throws each. For each one, the expected heads is 50. But due to random variation, when doing hundred throws each and then picking out the one with more heads, the expected value actually is a bit higher. Not sure about the exact number, but maybe 55.
In other words, by running two experiments in parallel and picking out the better one, you introduce a bit of bias compared to just running one.
I'm not saying that's an invalid thing to do. I am saying it needs to be taken into account in the statistical analysis of the picked-out subsample.
It’s not a picked out sub sample - it’s two predefined different experiments.
Yes, that's really important. You could, of course, segment data in all sorts of ways to show the vaccine was 98% successful on blondes born on a Thursday, but that would be meaningless. However, different dosing strategies is quite obviously something the scientists deliberately set up.
Also, whilst it's true that, if you set up two experiments, it could be that one would have stronger results than another, there are in fact statistical tests you can do that tell you the probability that the true efficacy rate significantly differs between the two, and the range of efficacy rates associated with each dosing regime (with a probability level of 99% or whatever the requirement is from the relevant agencies). So in the coin tossing example, yes you may get 48 heads with coin one and 55 with coin two, but you can quite easily statistically test whether or not that's significant and whether one can conclude there is a meaningful difference between the coins (to whatever the degree of probability you need is).
It sounds to me a little bit like the following set up: Experiment 1: You roll a die 100 times, and take the average. Experiment 2: You roll a pair of dice 100 times, and take the average of the higher value.
The experiments will yield very different "success" rates, and they should be reported separately. Averaging them probably makes no sense.
This might be horribly misleading, so don't pull me to pieces if I'm dead wrong, but that my current mental model for these studies.
Correct rolling the single dice you have a predicted average of 3.5 Rolling 2 should average 4
Since the Brexit referendum four years ago, car manufacturers on the island have been warning of a "no deal". But Prime Minister Boris Johnson apparently still believes he can dictate the terms of the EU. This denial of reality takes its toll. According to reports, Nissan is planning to shut down its Sunderland plant. "A decision has been made and it is not favorable for Great Britain," said a Nissan manager familiar with the matter. 7,000 jobs are at stake in Sunderland. It is the largest automobile plant in the kingdom. Europe boss Gianluca de Ficchy wants to make the difficult decision public in a few days. Chief Operating Officer Ashwani Gupta recently said, "If Brexit comes without a viable business model being identified, then it's no longer about Sunderland or not Sunderland. Then our entire business in Great Britain would no longer be sustainable."
So basically that only applies if No Deal, as it is more likely now we get a Deal then Nissan will stay in Sunderland after all
Finger on the northern pulse as usual. The barriers to the car industry are tariffs and customs costs/delays. A deal that imposes all three is the same as no deal. Currently Nissan moves parts and vehicles effortlessly across the border without delay. That is their viable business model. Even if we agree zero tariffs with the world on everything we're still going to impose a fuckton of slow and expensive paperwork to check at the border. Which wrecks their business model.
So no HYUFD, its not just about no deal, its about no EEA/CU. Yes, many Nissan workers voted to leave because they were told that this would not happen. I know that you want to ram it down their throat and expect them to vote Conservative, but as we have learned you are somewhat esoteric on such issues.
Opinium at the weekend had 65% of those who wanted to rejoin the EU voting Labour now and just 7% voting Tory and 52% of those supporting a trade deal where the UK is closely aligned to the EU voting Labour and just 25% voting Tory.
By contrast 72% of those supportive of a trade deal where the UK has a clean break from the EU are now voting Tory and just 15% voting Labour and 78% of those who want No Deal are voting Tory and just 4% voting Labour.
So an EEA/CU Brexit Deal would be political suicide for Boris now, even more so than No Deal and lead to mass defections from the Tories back to Farage, hence only a Canada style FTA with at most some compromise on state aid is an option https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-november-2020/
"I am willing to sacrifice world-leading industry and millions of jobs because if I don't people might not vote Conservative. So fuck them and fuck you too".
Its not the snappiest of campaign slogans is it? And whatever happened to patriotism?
Boris' primary job as Tory leader is to keep people voting Tory and respect the manifesto he was elected on to become PM
No it isn't. His primary job is being PM.
Being Tory leader is a means to an end and he should be focused on the job of being PM.
If for any reason there was a conflict between being PM and keeping people voting Tory his responsibility is to the country not the party.
If he abandoned his Tory voters he would not last as PM longer than a week, as the Tories poll ratings collapsed Tory MPs would replace him just as they replaced May
This is the sort of thinking that's led the GOP to the sewer in US politics. As the imminent election of Biden shows it won't be worn by the public past a certain point.
Yup. If you follow HYUFD's argument he's saying that the Tories have to destroy UK industry to ensure that people keep voting Tory to preserve UK industry from the threat of a Labour government. The point he's missing is that people won't vote for a party that incompetently kills tens of thousands and scraps world-beating industry by voluntarily imposing regulations that leaves them unable to competitively function.
Boris announcing mps should not take their pay rise puts Starmer in the position that he really will have to endorse this and in effect endorse public sector pay restraint
But as another poster has observed, SKS did this already weeks ago.
When did SKS state mps should not receive a pay rise due to the covid crisis
Its' back up the thread somewhere. I only remembered it when you mentioned it (sorry: am having break from revising very tedious typescript., and had better get back to it).
Edit: or maybe previous one. Not bneing rude!
I know you are not being rude but to be fair if SKS has made the point I do not recall him making it
Expect @Philip_Thompson to be along any moment and declare this as another example of 'Captain Hindsight' belatedly following Johnson's lead by er... Oh, minus six weeks.
It reminds me of Rosena Allin Khan plagiarising Boris Johnson's hilarious parody of Bob Dylan's "Subterranean, homesick blues" two weeks before Johnson's performance.
Pubs: good (ish) news for Wetherspoons and the like who can serve food.
Nightmare for 'wet' pubs which are typically independent small operations in Tiers 2 and 3. People will simply socialise at home in unregulated circumstances rather than in 'relatively' COVID secure pubs. Why doesn't the government get this?!!
I was wondering why the story about North Kent now being the worst hotspot in the country got such prominence on the lunchtime news. Then I remembered that the new tiers we will return to on 2 December are due to be announced by the clown this Thursday. Clearly we are looking at a rather different geography from last time.
Shagger says that the 2nd tiering system wasn't good enough. As Whitty advised him at the time. So now we have a 3rd tiering system. Which as it will be largely suspended for Christmas will itself not be good enough by January...
Shagger says that the 2nd tiering system wasn't good enough. As Whitty advised him at the time. So now we have a 3rd tiering system. Which as it will be largely suspended for Christmas will itself not be good enough by January...
Your use of ‘Shagger’ as a pejorative term baffles me. How many blokes would resent it?!
Boris announcing mps should not take their pay rise puts Starmer in the position that he really will have to endorse this and in effect endorse public sector pay restraint
But as another poster has observed, SKS did this already weeks ago.
When did SKS state mps should not receive a pay rise due to the covid crisis
Its' back up the thread somewhere. I only remembered it when you mentioned it (sorry: am having break from revising very tedious typescript., and had better get back to it).
Edit: or maybe previous one. Not bneing rude!
I know you are not being rude but to be fair if SKS has made the point I do not recall him making it
Expect @Philip_Thompson to be along any moment and declare this as another example of 'Captain Hindsight' belatedly following Johnson's lead by er... Oh, minus six weeks.
Pubs: good (ish) news for Wetherspoons and the like who can serve food.
Nightmare for 'wet' pubs which are typically independent small operations in Tiers 2 and 3. People will simply socialise at home in unregulated circumstances rather than in 'relatively' COVID secure pubs. Why doesn't the government get this?!!
GRRRR
Martin has them in his pocket they should be shut down as a social health hazard
Shagger says that the 2nd tiering system wasn't good enough. As Whitty advised him at the time. So now we have a 3rd tiering system. Which as it will be largely suspended for Christmas will itself not be good enough by January...
I was wondering why the story about North Kent now being the worst hotspot in the country got such prominence on the lunchtime news. Then I remembered that the new tiers we will return to on 2 December are due to be announced by the clown this Thursday. Clearly we are looking at a rather different geography from last time.
Close call for London. Probably Tier 2 but only on the balance of probability
SE London now being affected by Kent situation. Other areas in London doing a bit better.
Here is captain hindsight saying tiers is rubbish...Wales not even bothering with them.
I've not heard a good reason why a national approach is better than a regional one. The regional one gives you much more flexibility in terms of who is under what restrictions.
Pubs: good (ish) news for Wetherspoons and the like who can serve food.
Nightmare for 'wet' pubs which are typically independent small operations in Tiers 2 and 3. People will simply socialise at home in unregulated circumstances rather than in 'relatively' COVID secure pubs. Why doesn't the government get this?!!
GRRRR
Martin has them in his pocket they should be shut down as a social health hazard
I was wondering why the story about North Kent now being the worst hotspot in the country got such prominence on the lunchtime news. Then I remembered that the new tiers we will return to on 2 December are due to be announced by the clown this Thursday. Clearly we are looking at a rather different geography from last time.
Much of northern England looks doomed to Tier 3. South Wales, maybe chunks of central Scotland. Kent is bad.
The only really dodgy borough in London is Havering (why?!?)
If they close down the entire hospitality industry in our capital city, through Christmas, because of..... Havering.... then, well, fuck that shit
Correct rolling the single dice you have a predicted average of 3.5 Rolling 2 should average 4
OnlyLivingBoy calculated it down-thread as 4.4722, with which I agree having done the maths. But, as explained, it isn't really relevant to what is being said about the two Oxford vaccine groups.
I was wondering why the story about North Kent now being the worst hotspot in the country got such prominence on the lunchtime news. Then I remembered that the new tiers we will return to on 2 December are due to be announced by the clown this Thursday. Clearly we are looking at a rather different geography from last time.
Much of northern England looks doomed to Tier 3. South Wales, maybe chunks of central Scotland. Kent is bad.
The only really dodgy borough in London is Havering (why?!?)
If they close down the entire hospitality industry in our capital city, through Christmas, because of..... Havering.... then, well, fuck that shit
Havering is bad, but there are only 2 or 3 London boroughs in the COVID national Top 100 for lower level local authorities (there are 315 of these).
London will be treated as a single entity, so hopefully the fact that 29 out of 32 boroughs are not in the national top 100 will keep London in Tier 2.
I was wondering why the story about North Kent now being the worst hotspot in the country got such prominence on the lunchtime news. Then I remembered that the new tiers we will return to on 2 December are due to be announced by the clown this Thursday. Clearly we are looking at a rather different geography from last time.
Much of northern England looks doomed to Tier 3. South Wales, maybe chunks of central Scotland. Kent is bad.
The only really dodgy borough in London is Havering (why?!?)
If they close down the entire hospitality industry in our capital city, through Christmas, because of..... Havering.... then, well, fuck that shit
These are nightmare, nightmare proposals from Johnson.
Seems to me that effectively Tier 2 is what Tier 3 used to be ... And Tier 3 is effectively now a half lockdown, combined with mass testing in those regions.
Should definitely be enough to keep R below one until a vaccine is rolled out I hope.
Shagger says that the 2nd tiering system wasn't good enough. As Whitty advised him at the time. So now we have a 3rd tiering system. Which as it will be largely suspended for Christmas will itself not be good enough by January...
Your use of ‘Shagger’ as a pejorative term baffles me. How many blokes would resent it?!
Whatever. Why don't we skip the fancy names (Shagger, Captain Hindsight, etc etc) , if only to avoid baffling new readers? It makes us look cliquey (the reports that Cummings and associates had a funny name for everyone is a good example)..
I was wondering why the story about North Kent now being the worst hotspot in the country got such prominence on the lunchtime news. Then I remembered that the new tiers we will return to on 2 December are due to be announced by the clown this Thursday. Clearly we are looking at a rather different geography from last time.
Much of northern England looks doomed to Tier 3. South Wales, maybe chunks of central Scotland. Kent is bad.
The only really dodgy borough in London is Havering (why?!?)
If they close down the entire hospitality industry in our capital city, through Christmas, because of..... Havering.... then, well, fuck that shit
Hard to know why Havering is doing so badly. Lots of Faragey types not wearing masks, perhaps? But most likely, it's just that with 32 boroughs, random noise means someone is likely to look dodgy.
I was wondering why the story about North Kent now being the worst hotspot in the country got such prominence on the lunchtime news. Then I remembered that the new tiers we will return to on 2 December are due to be announced by the clown this Thursday. Clearly we are looking at a rather different geography from last time.
Much of northern England looks doomed to Tier 3. South Wales, maybe chunks of central Scotland. Kent is bad.
The only really dodgy borough in London is Havering (why?!?)
If they close down the entire hospitality industry in our capital city, through Christmas, because of..... Havering.... then, well, fuck that shit
Hello from half a mile inside the Havering/Brentwood/Thurrock border!
Older demographic they say. Big hospital on the other border near Bark & Dag might have something to do with it?
Since the Brexit referendum four years ago, car manufacturers on the island have been warning of a "no deal". But Prime Minister Boris Johnson apparently still believes he can dictate the terms of the EU. This denial of reality takes its toll. According to reports, Nissan is planning to shut down its Sunderland plant. "A decision has been made and it is not favorable for Great Britain," said a Nissan manager familiar with the matter. 7,000 jobs are at stake in Sunderland. It is the largest automobile plant in the kingdom. Europe boss Gianluca de Ficchy wants to make the difficult decision public in a few days. Chief Operating Officer Ashwani Gupta recently said, "If Brexit comes without a viable business model being identified, then it's no longer about Sunderland or not Sunderland. Then our entire business in Great Britain would no longer be sustainable."
So basically that only applies if No Deal, as it is more likely now we get a Deal then Nissan will stay in Sunderland after all
Bozo has perhaps at last come round to "a bad deal is better than no deal", and however much he tries to dress it up, that is what it will be.
A basic Deal I agree and of course an EEA/CU style Brexit was only and is only viable with a Labour PM and it is ludicrous to suggest otherwise, the Tories are not going to commit political suicide again with a soft Brexit that leads to half their vote going back to Farage and the Brexit Party or his new outfit Reform UK
Why can't he do a soft deal and sell it as a hard one? This is "Boris" we're talking about, remember. He very recently convinced half the working class of England that he was their champion.
From what I can see for much of England, the pubs will effectively be shut until the end of March.
Four more month of no pubs. Through the winter.
No, it really isn't that bad. These vaccines will be rolling out, and into human arms, probably before Xmas. The vulnerable, key workers and possible super spreaders will get the first. Millions will be pumped through Jan, Feb.
You will start to see a fall in R and infections, hospitalisations, deaths, etc, really quite quickly, as the virus is cornered. This means lots of regions will see an easement in the restrictions after Xmas. Those in Tier 3 (no pubs) should quite swiftly descend to Tier 2. And so on.
It's gonna be a tough winter but it will get noticeably better as the evenings brighten.
Shagger says that the 2nd tiering system wasn't good enough. As Whitty advised him at the time. So now we have a 3rd tiering system. Which as it will be largely suspended for Christmas will itself not be good enough by January...
Your use of ‘Shagger’ as a pejorative term baffles me. How many blokes would resent it?!
Define "blokes". He is a serial adulterer and liar who seems to cheat on every partner he has and leaves a string of children behind him. None of the men I know would condone that kind of behaviour, its the 2020s not an episode of "Men Behaving Badly"
I was wondering why the story about North Kent now being the worst hotspot in the country got such prominence on the lunchtime news. Then I remembered that the new tiers we will return to on 2 December are due to be announced by the clown this Thursday. Clearly we are looking at a rather different geography from last time.
But surely, no self interest at work their - no-one in the media would admit to living in Kent?
Except it isn't, because it's not all about the money.
It's remarkable how some people like Andrew Adonis keep failing to realise this.
Perhaps that's partly deliberate, even if at a sub-conscious level, because he'd far prefer it to be about the money otherwise he'd have to accept engaging with the difficult socio-cultural issues it throws up.
But it is mainly about money. Money buys liberty of action, more holidays, better house etc etc. Only politicians think it is not about money (oh and Corbynistas).
Since the Brexit referendum four years ago, car manufacturers on the island have been warning of a "no deal". But Prime Minister Boris Johnson apparently still believes he can dictate the terms of the EU. This denial of reality takes its toll. According to reports, Nissan is planning to shut down its Sunderland plant. "A decision has been made and it is not favorable for Great Britain," said a Nissan manager familiar with the matter. 7,000 jobs are at stake in Sunderland. It is the largest automobile plant in the kingdom. Europe boss Gianluca de Ficchy wants to make the difficult decision public in a few days. Chief Operating Officer Ashwani Gupta recently said, "If Brexit comes without a viable business model being identified, then it's no longer about Sunderland or not Sunderland. Then our entire business in Great Britain would no longer be sustainable."
So basically that only applies if No Deal, as it is more likely now we get a Deal then Nissan will stay in Sunderland after all
Bozo has perhaps at last come round to "a bad deal is better than no deal", and however much he tries to dress it up, that is what it will be.
A basic Deal I agree and of course an EEA/CU style Brexit was only and is only viable with a Labour PM and it is ludicrous to suggest otherwise, the Tories are not going to commit political suicide again with a soft Brexit that leads to half their vote going back to Farage and the Brexit Party or his new outfit Reform UK
Why can't he do a soft deal and sell it as a hard one? This is "Boris" we're talking about, remember. He very recently convinced half the working class of England that he was their champion.
If he announces the deal in his "magic" hi-viz coat we'll all believe him.
I was wondering why the story about North Kent now being the worst hotspot in the country got such prominence on the lunchtime news. Then I remembered that the new tiers we will return to on 2 December are due to be announced by the clown this Thursday. Clearly we are looking at a rather different geography from last time.
But surely, no self interest at work their - no-one in the media would admit to living in Kent?
well, I guess that´s why from Jan 1 you will need a Kent Access Permit to bring your truck within 60 miles of the Kent ports...
I am pleased he has made this announcement as it is the right thing to do and looks as if Starmer will endorse it
Obviously, MPs exercising pay restraint is welcome but let's not forget there are many public sector workers (despite what @NerysHughes would have you believe) who have worked tirelessly through the Covid crisis such as aduly and child social care workers as well as emergency management teams, staff redeployed from other areas and less heroes and heroines such as drivers, street cleaners and that's before we think of those in the NHS and emergency services who have literally put their own health at risk to keep people alive.
I think there are those in the public sector who do deserve recognition and increased remuneration.
There are also shedloads who have lost their jobs or will lose their jobs and will not see pay rises for years and years. Public service workers are doing well with having had no loss at all during the pandemic, all still on full pay and all guaranteed to have jobs. They are in a really special position and should realise it rather than trying to gouge the country..
Shagger says that the 2nd tiering system wasn't good enough. As Whitty advised him at the time. So now we have a 3rd tiering system. Which as it will be largely suspended for Christmas will itself not be good enough by January...
Your use of ‘Shagger’ as a pejorative term baffles me. How many blokes would resent it?!
Denis Healey become involved in a blazing row on the floor of the house with hard-left MPs. “What happened is that one of them cast doubt on my paternity so I praised his virility,” said Healey with masterly understatement. In fact, the leftwing MPs called Healey “a Stalinist bastard” and Healey yelled at them repeatedly, “You fuckers, you’re out of your tiny Chinese minds.”
Comments
The first is that the manifesto also promised "We will negotiate a trade agreement next year – one that will strengthen our Union" The deal Boris seems to have wanted appears to be one that the EU isn't prepared to give. So which manifesto promise should BoJo break? The one describing the deal he wants, or the one saying there will be a deal?
Second problem is that the respect of the manifesto might be in conflict with keeping people voting blue. Take the Poll Tax. Yes, it was in the 1987 manifesto. But, with hindsight (or even reasonable foresight, given the data at https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/community-charge) would the Conservative party have been wise to not implement it?
As against trashing his own deal, breaking the law, and giving all the juicy contracts to his school and uni mates.
Fnarr fnarr. I know what it is, its not remotely dirty, but whatever
I think there are those in the public sector who do deserve recognition and increased remuneration.
Similar to sports pundits. They're paid to be interesting. But not correct. The main reason I keep my enormo-haddock blog is that the public record helps focus my mind on betting sensibly.
Well, that and bragging rights if a bet comes off
Rolling 2 should average 4
Then again, a day is a long time in Johnson's world...
*prays*
Nightmare for 'wet' pubs which are typically independent small operations in Tiers 2 and 3. People will simply socialise at home in unregulated circumstances rather than in 'relatively' COVID secure pubs. Why doesn't the government get this?!!
GRRRR
SE London now being affected by Kent situation. Other areas in London doing a bit better.
I think they are going to be extremely disappointed.
Very much Epimetheus rather than his more beloved sibling.
The only really dodgy borough in London is Havering (why?!?)
If they close down the entire hospitality industry in our capital city, through Christmas, because of..... Havering.... then, well, fuck that shit
Four more month of no pubs. Through the winter.
NEW THREAD
London will be treated as a single entity, so hopefully the fact that 29 out of 32 boroughs are not in the national top 100 will keep London in Tier 2.
Should definitely be enough to keep R below one until a vaccine is rolled out I hope.
However the main beef on here this afternoon is that the BBC have undermarked Boris' vaccine. He'll know now how "A" level students felt in August!
Older demographic they say. Big hospital on the other border near Bark & Dag might have something to do with it?
You will start to see a fall in R and infections, hospitalisations, deaths, etc, really quite quickly, as the virus is cornered. This means lots of regions will see an easement in the restrictions after Xmas. Those in Tier 3 (no pubs) should quite swiftly descend to Tier 2. And so on.
It's gonna be a tough winter but it will get noticeably better as the evenings brighten.