politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Was Theresa May on manoeuvres and did it cost her SPAD her
The row exposed deep rifts within the cabinet. Two cabinet ministers accused May of running a “tiresome” and “obvious” leadership campaign, picking a fight with Gove to boost her hopes of succeeding Cameron if he fails to win the next election.
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First?0
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My view is simple(minded?):
Rats in a sack.
Edit: We need Marf!0 -
Cameron's fault ...... he should have taken a firm grip before this got out of hand.0
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Is Britain going to be destroyed? Cameron's dodgy dossier on fracking rivals Blair's dodgy dossier on Iraq. It's designed to mislead, and is full of inaccuracies. The target is the destruction of Britain's countryside and way of life. Estimates of output are upped. Assessment of environmental impact is avoided. The damage will be carried by the taxpayer, not the frackers or the insurance companies. Murdoch's red hot for the attack to go ahead. It's 2003 all over again, except this time we are to be the victims. http://the-tap.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/owen-paterson-and-david-camerons-dodgy.html0
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Fifth column!0
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If ministers think they're going to lose, is it because they read PB? Feedback loop.0
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Trouble is if they all think he's on his way out then he doesn't have much leverage...peter_from_putney said:Cameron's fault ...... he should have taken a firm grip before this got out of hand.
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I thought the general view on here was that next year will see a Tory landslide...Freggles said:If ministers think they're going to lose, is it because they read PB? Feedback loop.
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Paddy Power - Rochdale (Lab Maj over LD = 889)
Lab 1/20
LD 7/1
UKIP 50/1
Con 80/10 -
UKIP lengthen in South Thanet (Con Maj over Lab = 7,617), making CON FAV again.
I believe that South Thanet is the only constituency to date which has ever had UKIP priced as FAV, but it only lasted a couple of days.
PP
Con 6/5 (from 6/4)
UKIP 11/8 (from 11/10)
Lab 5/2
LD 100/10 -
YouGov: 33/37/7/14/5
Another bad 2010 VI split for LDs; LAB:35; LD:28; Con:1; UKIP:10; Green:10; NATS:4
Green support coming mainly from LDs and voters aged 18-24 and then 25-39
On who should succeed DC: Boris; 25; May 19; DK: 48
Just 42% of those polled interested in football.0 -
Well, not Britain. England maybe.Tapestry said:Is Britain going to be destroyed? Cameron's dodgy dossier on fracking rivals Blair's dodgy dossier on Iraq. It's designed to mislead, and is full of inaccuracies. The target is the destruction of Britain's countryside and way of life. Estimates of output are upped. Assessment of environmental impact is avoided. The damage will be carried by the taxpayer, not the frackers or the insurance companies. Murdoch's red hot for the attack to go ahead. It's 2003 all over again, except this time we are to be the victims. http://the-tap.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/owen-paterson-and-david-camerons-dodgy.html
The Scottish Environment Protection Agency is Scotland’s environmental regulator.
Natural Resources Wales is Wales' environmental regulator.
The Northern Ireland Environment Agency is NI’s environmental regulator.
Planning is a devolved issue.
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Sometimes one of the great indicators of whether a party is going to lose office shortly is that cabinet ministers start positioning themselves for the Leadership election that will follow a defeat.
Is another dynamic here that there will be a large than normal upheaval of the Cabinet after the next general election, if the incumbent PM is victorious?
If the Conservatives have a one-party majority then there will be lots of currently Lib Dem cabinet and ministerial posts to fill. Even if Cameron continues to lead a Coalition, likely Lib Dem seat losses will change the balance of power within the Coalition.0 -
Interesting point by TSE. On the other hand I think it's in the nature of politicians to try to climb the greasy pole. Can anyone name a current MP who is, truly, of a virtuous, altruistic and public-serving nature? As an aside I think it's one of the reasons Guido's site is at the top of the hits list: he starts with the position that all MP's are self-serving and on the make.
It's sad because I think 40 years ago there were actually a few MPs who went into politics for less self-centred reasons. Tam Dalyell comes to mind but I can't think of many others in recent memory?
Good point still by TSE. If we do see a lot more of this you could well be right. Major's 1992-7 Gov't was probably the classic indicator of what was coming.0 -
Correction:
LD 2010 VI split should read: LAB:35; LD28; Con:12; UKIP:10;Green:10; NATS:4
Vanilla not allowing EDIT again0 -
- "NATS: 4" !!??!! Is that a typo?Financier said:YouGov: 33/37/7/14/5
Another bad 2010 VI split for LDs; LAB:35; LD:28; Con:1; UKIP:10; Green:10; NATS:4
Green support coming mainly from LDs and voters aged 18-24 and then 25-39
On who should succeed DC: Boris; 25; May 19; DK: 48
Just 42% of those polled interested in football.
Jeepers creepers. We only got 2.3% at the last UK general election in 2010 (SNP 1.7% + PC 0.6%).
Can't wait to see the next full-sample Scottish poll. Looks like UKIP's advance may have put rocket fuel in the SNP's booster.0 -
Aha, you are analysing a sub-sample. Again. Dearie, dearie me.Financier said:Correction:
LD 2010 VI split should read: LAB:35; LD28; Con:12; UKIP:10;Green:10; NATS:4
Vanilla not allowing EDIT again
I don't suppose we'll hear a peep from the usual sub-sample detractors. Wonder why?0 -
A large part of Scotland is being licensed for gas exploration and development, the part where the people live. Wales - there's a sizeable chunk of South Wales. N.I. I don't know. I am sure the regional environmental protection agencies can be just as easily corrupted/persuaded to stand aside and abandon proper environmental impact assessments. Rupert Murdoch is bulling up fracking in The Sun. Cameron's beside himself with delight with the idea of fracking the whole country apart from the part he lives in himself. BIg money, the media and the political system are all lined up in a row. How will a little environmental protection officer working out in the sticks be able to stop them? There are people trying to get the truth out, as did David Kelly pre-Iraq, along with Andrew Gilligan. Such truth-tellers tend to just get blown away, or ignored, or both. As I say, the dodgy dossiers are written. Their lies are being pumped up as reliable facts. The money is piling in. The people as usual don't have a clue. Their way of life and the countryside are to be obliterated. The time to wake up is now.
Well, not Britain. England maybe.
The Scottish Environment Protection Agency is Scotland’s environmental regulator.
Natural Resources Wales is Wales' environmental regulator.
The Northern Ireland Environment Agency is NI’s environmental regulator.
Planning is a devolved issue.
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I hate to burst your bubble http://order-order.com/2014/05/30/survey-says/Freggles said:If ministers think they're going to lose, is it because they read PB? Feedback loop.
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NATS 4 is part of 2010 LD split - not all voters.Stuart_Dickson said:
- "NATS: 4" !!??!! Is that a typo?Financier said:YouGov: 33/37/7/14/5
Another bad 2010 VI split for LDs; LAB:35; LD:28; Con:1; UKIP:10; Green:10; NATS:4
Green support coming mainly from LDs and voters aged 18-24 and then 25-39
On who should succeed DC: Boris; 25; May 19; DK: 48
Just 42% of those polled interested in football.
Jeepers creepers. We only got 2.3% at the last UK general election in 2010 (SNP 1.7% + PC 0.6%).
Can't wait to see the next full-sample Scottish poll. Looks like UKIP's advance may have put rocket fuel in the SNP's booster.0 -
Except in England.Stuart_Dickson said:
Well, not Britain. England maybe.Tapestry said:Is Britain going to be destroyed? Cameron's dodgy dossier on fracking rivals Blair's dodgy dossier on Iraq. It's designed to mislead, and is full of inaccuracies. The target is the destruction of Britain's countryside and way of life. Estimates of output are upped. Assessment of environmental impact is avoided. The damage will be carried by the taxpayer, not the frackers or the insurance companies. Murdoch's red hot for the attack to go ahead. It's 2003 all over again, except this time we are to be the victims. http://the-tap.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/owen-paterson-and-david-camerons-dodgy.html
The Scottish Environment Protection Agency is Scotland’s environmental regulator.
Natural Resources Wales is Wales' environmental regulator.
The Northern Ireland Environment Agency is NI’s environmental regulator.
Planning is a devolved issue.0 -
On topic, take your pick:
1. May and Gove are positioning themselves for a post-election leadership campaign, in which either or both expect / hope to be candidates.
2. May and Gove are positioning themselves for a post- (or pre-?) election re-shuffle in which there may well be substantial changes.
3. May and Gove have genuine differences of opinion as to how extremism in schools has / should have been handled, which has escalated, and/or acted as a conducting rod for, an already poor relationship, and each has sought to power-grab the issue wholly into their department.
The options are not mutually exclusive.0 -
Andy Murray says Salmond's Saltire-waving theatrics spoilt his Wimbledon triumph;
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/tennis/andy-murray-reveals-didnt-like-36613170 -
If Fracking is so bad then surely there are well documented stories from the States about the environmental disasters that have taken place?
And propaganda videos by that muppet who made Gasland don't count.0 -
Theuniondivvie said:
By differentiating London from the rest of England you seem to be seeking 'dividing lines and differences' yourself. I guess marginally-left-of-centrists have to seek comfort somewhere.SouthamObserver said:
Fair point Stuart. In London in May 2014 the Greens got an MEP and UKIP didn't. In Scotland the opposite was true. Compared to 2012 the Tory vote went down in London, compared to 2011 it went up in Scotland. Conclusion? As London moves left, Scotland moves right. But, overall, pretty similar. I can see why that might hurt a nationalist, always keen to look for dividing lines and differences, and I'm sorry about that.Stuart_Dickson said:
So, Scotland's electoral politics are "very similar to London" are they?SouthamObserver said:
Scotland seems to be very similar to London. Though much less attractive to immigrants!Stuart_Dickson said:
Better Together claim that UKIP is irrelevant in Scotland.CarlottaVance said:
The SNP claim that UKIP is irrelevant in Scotland because it has no elected representatives is now dead in the water.Stuart_Dickson said:
So, UKIP's 10% performance in Scotland last month is good for Ruth Davidson's bunch is it?MonikerDiCanio said:Brilliant analysis as usual from Herdson. Hopefully there'll be no more One Nation Labour nonsense from EdM.
Interesting ConHome piece on the impact of a UKIP MEP in Scotland;
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2014/05/brian-monteith-ukips-new-mep-in-scotland-is-a-blow-for-salmond-and-a-chance-for-tories.html
The SNP claim that Scotland is different is also now proven to be a delusion. UKIP doubled its vote and won a seat, while the Conservative vote is now recovering.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/06/ukip-officially-excluded-from-scottish-referendum-campaign/
UKIP vote Scotland 10%
UKIP vote England 30%
Scotland not different?
London election May 2012:
Con 44.0%
SNP 0
Scottish election May 2011:
SNP 45.4%
Con 13.9%
Oh yes. So similar you could not put a fag paper between them.
SouthamObserver is clearly incapable of seeing the gaping holes in his own argument. But what I find most amusing is seeing him teaming up with right wing fruitcakes in his attempts to attack posters in favour of self-government. A sign of the times I'm afraid.
It is no coincidence that SCON poster DavidL noted with approval on the same thread that SLAB had been out campaigning against Scottish self-government in central Dundee. Funny how it took them over two years to organise a wee bit of street campaigning. Cameron's little SLAB helpers are an enthusiastic bunch.0 -
I think we are just seeing preparation for the silly season with nothing political on the horizon until conference season apart from the snoozefest of the Indyref.
It will all be football and tennis and exhibitionists on Big Brother until then.
Mind you I couldnt resist Shadsys 6/1 on Dave Cameron being seen in a pub during a world cup match.0 -
4. Both are trying to cover their arses having failed to notice a serious issue staring them in the face.david_herdson said:On topic, take your pick:
1. May and Gove are positioning themselves for a post-election leadership campaign, in which either or both expect / hope to be candidates.
2. May and Gove are positioning themselves for a post- (or pre-?) election re-shuffle in which there may well be substantial changes.
3. May and Gove have genuine differences of opinion as to how extremism in schools has / should have been handled, which has escalated, and/or acted as a conducting rod for, an already poor relationship, and each has sought to power-grab the issue wholly into their department.
The options are not mutually exclusive.
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Was Theresa May on manoeuvres? Well, probably but in this instance it seems to have been Gove who got his retaliation in first.0
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UKIP's performance in Scotland is very similar to that in England, only offset by 10 years.Stuart_Dickson said:Theuniondivvie said:
By differentiating London from the rest of England you seem to be seeking 'dividing lines and differences' yourself. I guess marginally-left-of-centrists have to seek comfort somewhere.SouthamObserver said:
Fair point Stuart. In London in May 2014 the Greens got an MEP and UKIP didn't. In Scotland the opposite was true. Compared to 2012 the Tory vote went down in London, compared to 2011 it went up in Scotland. Conclusion? As London moves left, Scotland moves right. But, overall, pretty similar. I can see why that might hurt a nationalist, always keen to look for dividing lines and differences, and I'm sorry about that.Stuart_Dickson said:
So, Scotland's electoral politics are "very similar to London" are they?SouthamObserver said:
Scotland seems to be very similar to London. Though much less attractive to immigrants!Stuart_Dickson said:
Better Together claim that UKIP is irrelevant in Scotland.CarlottaVance said:Stuart_Dickson said:
The SNP claim that UKIP is irrelevant in Scotland because it has no elected representatives is now dead in the water.
The SNP claim that Scotland is different is also now proven to be a delusion. UKIP doubled its vote and won a seat, while the Conservative vote is now recovering.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/06/ukip-officially-excluded-from-scottish-referendum-campaign/
UKIP vote Scotland 10%
UKIP vote England 30%
Scotland not different?
London election May 2012:
Con 44.0%
SNP 0
Scottish election May 2011:
SNP 45.4%
Con 13.9%
Oh yes. So similar you could not put a fag paper between them.
SouthamObserver is clearly incapable of seeing the gaping holes in his own argument. But what I find most amusing is seeing him teaming up with right wing fruitcakes in his attempts to attack posters in favour of self-government. A sign of the times I'm afraid.
It is no coincidence that SCON poster DavidL noted with approval on the same thread that SLAB had been out campaigning against Scottish self-government in central Dundee. Funny how it took them over two years to organise a wee bit of street campaigning. Cameron's little SLAB helpers are an enthusiastic bunch.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Sunday Times taking its cue from the wise words of Morris Dancer, I see.
I'd also add that Cameron has been leader for a long time now. If he wins the General Election and stayed a full term it'd be 15 years. Even if he wins he might well decide to go a couple of years into the next Parliament.
May's being bloody stupid, blowing the surprisingly good Conservative unity to try and bolster her own prospects (which, ironically, may be harming them as blues with marginal seats won't be best pleased at a completely unnecessary Cabinet divide).0 -
Delightful.SquareRoot said:
So, now everybody who reads this blog is compelled to like a cartoonist? I'm a big fan of good cartoonists, and am actually a bit of an aficionado. That does not mean I have to like all cartoonists. Quite the opposite in fact: I am choosy. I don't rate Marf one bit.
Writing and drawing cartoons is a job. Just like writing a blog article, driving a taxi or being a Lib Dem ramper. Just because Marf chooses to spend her time doing what she does does not oblige everybody else on the planet to think she is good at it.
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Yes. I wouldn't rule that one out either!!SouthamObserver said:
4. Both are trying to cover their arses having failed to notice a serious issue staring them in the face.david_herdson said:On topic, take your pick:
1. May and Gove are positioning themselves for a post-election leadership campaign, in which either or both expect / hope to be candidates.
2. May and Gove are positioning themselves for a post- (or pre-?) election re-shuffle in which there may well be substantial changes.
3. May and Gove have genuine differences of opinion as to how extremism in schools has / should have been handled, which has escalated, and/or acted as a conducting rod for, an already poor relationship, and each has sought to power-grab the issue wholly into their department.
The options are not mutually exclusive.0 -
@david_herdson - "UKIP's performance in Scotland is very similar to that in England, only offset by 10 years."
David, you are a clever chap. Puhrleese tell us that you don't really believe in Straight Line Politics. Because, if you did, in 1997 you would have predicted the Scottish Conservatives at -216% by now.
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Sounds like money in the bank.foxinsoxuk said:Mind you I couldnt resist Shadsys 6/1 on Dave Cameron being seen in a pub during a world cup match.
Unless of course the word "England" has become too politically incorrect in the country of its birth?
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No, indeed. Past performance is no guarantee and all that. Even so, the relationship is a strong one (or has been so far). FWIW, I think UKIP will peak at the same time north and south of the border.Stuart_Dickson said:@david_herdson - "UKIP's performance in Scotland is very similar to that in England, only offset by 10 years."
David, you are a clever chap. Puhrleese tell us that you don't really believe in Straight Line Politics. Because, if you did, in 1997 you would have predicted the Scottish Conservatives at -216% by now.0 -
Not quite true.david_herdson said:
Except in England.Stuart_Dickson said:
Well, not Britain. England maybe.Tapestry said:Is Britain going to be destroyed? Cameron's dodgy dossier on fracking rivals Blair's dodgy dossier on Iraq. It's designed to mislead, and is full of inaccuracies. The target is the destruction of Britain's countryside and way of life. Estimates of output are upped. Assessment of environmental impact is avoided. The damage will be carried by the taxpayer, not the frackers or the insurance companies. Murdoch's red hot for the attack to go ahead. It's 2003 all over again, except this time we are to be the victims. http://the-tap.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/owen-paterson-and-david-camerons-dodgy.html
The Scottish Environment Protection Agency is Scotland’s environmental regulator.
Natural Resources Wales is Wales' environmental regulator.
The Northern Ireland Environment Agency is NI’s environmental regulator.
Planning is a devolved issue.
Planning is a devolved issue in England too, de facto but not de jure.
But you cannot blame us SNP types for that constitutional dog's breakfast. After all, we want English people to rule England just as we want Scottish people to rule Scotland. Then the lines of responsibility are nice and clear.
Now, we must look up that list of Scottish MPs who imposed foundation hospitals and student tuition fees on England, despite English MPs voting against both measures.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WLQ0 -
- " FWIW, I think UKIP will peak at the same time north and south of the border."david_herdson said:
No, indeed. Past performance is no guarantee and all that. Even so, the relationship is a strong one (or has been so far). FWIW, I think UKIP will peak at the same time north and south of the border.Stuart_Dickson said:@david_herdson - "UKIP's performance in Scotland is very similar to that in England, only offset by 10 years."
David, you are a clever chap. Puhrleese tell us that you don't really believe in Straight Line Politics. Because, if you did, in 1997 you would have predicted the Scottish Conservatives at -216% by now.
Which is an explicit admission that your "10 years offset" argument was foundationless.
Thank you.0 -
Dunno about falling out. I expect she is busy. For the record I own a couple of signed copies of her work, and have given one or two as presents.MikeK said:
Good Morning. I agree with your last line: Where has Marf gone; why haven't we seen her on PB lately; has OGH and the talented cartoonist fallen out?Toms said:My view is simple(minded?):
Rats in a sack.
Edit: We need Marf!0 -
@Stuart_Dickson - I am all for self government. I am opposed to narrow-minded nationalism. The kind that seeks to suggest that there are fundamental differences between people who have lived together, worked together, laughed together, played together and developed all kinds of other deep bonds over the course of hundreds of years. That's not progressive, it's reactionary. SNP nationalism is the same as UKIP nationalism: if we get rid of that other, that foreign thing, that holds us back then everything will be so much better. The English are Tories, they vote UKIP, they feed the Westminster beast that oppresses us, says the SNP. And that leads to the fibs about things such as EU membership and the obfuscation over the implications of a shared currency. It's not about a better Scotland or UK for nationalists, it's about a separate one. Not my cup of rosie, I'm afraid.
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F1: just trying to decide on a bet (or bets). Weirdly, the Ladbrokes winner without Rosberg/Hamilton market's not up.0
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With respect to the Mail, a spad getting the boot is hardly a "bloodbath".0
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I commissioned one from Marf once, as a gift.Toms said:
Dunno about falling out. I expect she is busy. For the record I own a couple of signed copies of her work, and have given one or two as presents.MikeK said:
Good Morning. I agree with your last line: Where has Marf gone; why haven't we seen her on PB lately; has OGH and the talented cartoonist fallen out?Toms said:My view is simple(minded?):
Rats in a sack.
Edit: We need Marf!0 -
I genuinely don't know what to make of this story. To be honest I didn't really take much notice of it as it didn't seem that interesting to me. I sometimes wonder if the tendency of journalists to view politics as soap opera means that these things take on a life they maybe never had. I don't doubt that there are rivalries in the Cabinet, there are in any team, but I just get the feeling that more is being made of this than is there to be made.0
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I think Antifrank has a few also. And no doubt others.DecrepitJohnL said:
I commissioned one from Marf once, as a gift.Toms said:
Dunno about falling out. I expect she is busy. For the record I own a couple of signed copies of her work, and have given one or two as presents.MikeK said:
Good Morning. I agree with your last line: Where has Marf gone; why haven't we seen her on PB lately; has OGH and the talented cartoonist fallen out?Toms said:My view is simple(minded?):
Rats in a sack.
Edit: We need Marf!
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The actions of Cameron, Gove and May seem to fall outside of what might be considered normal Westminster politicking.ToryJim said:I genuinely don't know what to make of this story. To be honest I didn't really take much notice of it as it didn't seem that interesting to me. I sometimes wonder if the tendency of journalists to view politics as soap opera means that these things take on a life they maybe never had. I don't doubt that there are rivalries in the Cabinet, there are in any team, but I just get the feeling that more is being made of this than is there to be made.
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Tories have got off very lightly from this story so far. When this sort of thing happens you have to question their ability to govern.0
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And George Osborne is the future leadership contender who didn't bark in the night-time.SouthamObserver said:
The actions of Cameron, Gove and May seem to fall outside of what might be considered normal Westminster politicking.ToryJim said:I genuinely don't know what to make of this story. To be honest I didn't really take much notice of it as it didn't seem that interesting to me. I sometimes wonder if the tendency of journalists to view politics as soap opera means that these things take on a life they maybe never had. I don't doubt that there are rivalries in the Cabinet, there are in any team, but I just get the feeling that more is being made of this than is there to be made.
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2651737/Ed-Milibands-secret-triple-tax-whammy-Leaked-Labour-plans-multi-billion-pound-package-property-wealth-taxes.html
Secret Labour plans for a multi-billion-pound package of new ‘property wealth taxes’ to hammer London and the well-to-do counties of southern England were leaked last night.
The Tories claim the proposals fly in the face of Ed Miliband’s claim to be a ‘one-nation’ leader and would only exacerbate the so-called ‘cost of living crisis’.
Tellingly, the report commissioned by Mr Miliband which contains details of the ‘triple tax whammy’ is marked ‘very sensitive’. It would mean that if he wins power in next year’s General Election:
All shop owners would be forced to pay a new ‘property owner’s tax’ separate from existing business rates – and on top of existing income tax.
Emergency laws would impose a new ‘business tax’ on firms in every prosperous city and town in England – backdated to before the election – to fund tax handouts to less well-off areas.
And a new £500 million ‘farm tax’ would be introduced by scrapping the exemption from business rates that has applied to agricultural land and buildings since 1929.
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Possibly, the story didn't really strike me as that newsworthy. I didn't prick my ears up put it this way.SouthamObserver said:
The actions of Cameron, Gove and May seem to fall outside of what might be considered normal Westminster politicking.ToryJim said:I genuinely don't know what to make of this story. To be honest I didn't really take much notice of it as it didn't seem that interesting to me. I sometimes wonder if the tendency of journalists to view politics as soap opera means that these things take on a life they maybe never had. I don't doubt that there are rivalries in the Cabinet, there are in any team, but I just get the feeling that more is being made of this than is there to be made.
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It is very unlikely that the Tories will stay in government from May 2015. But in the run up to an election if senior politicians are plotting about future leadership of the party, it will make it even harder. Labour have got a lot of work to do to explain their alternative economic policies, which will include some tax increases and also continuation of some spending cuts. So the Tories still have a chance if they remain united and win back votes from UKIP.
As for Theresa May, as some have mentioned on here before, she is too powerful within the Tory party for Cameron to sack her. She can go around plotting to take over from Cameron in the belief that Cameron will not do anything about it.0 -
Mr. Flashman (deceased), well, he did tell us he was a socialist.
Betting Post
Two bets for Canada.
Vettel for a podium, 2.3 (Betfair). Hulkenberg top 6, 3.5 (Ladbrokes). Explanations and so forth will be in the pre-race piece I'll put up shortly.0 -
This is an interesting view of humanity's dominance of the globe: http://www.xkcd.com/1338/0
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@TGOHF
Surely increasing taxes on farms will only ultimately increase the price of food? So so far Labour are looking at raising NI thud reducing people's disposable incomes and then introducing other taxes that will push up the price of food. So their answer to a so-called cost of living crisis is to reduce peoples livings and increase their costs.0 -
I don't think they would be expecting to lose, given the polling and recent elections. I think it's highly likely the Conservatives will be the largest party, after the next election.
WRT Marf, her best cartoons are very good indeed. I have one in my office.0 -
Pre-race piece is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/canada-pre-race.html0 -
Mr. Me, fascinating graphic.0
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Bought the Sunday Times. God knows after how many years.
Guess what ? The squabbling Tories are at it again ! Ferrets fighting in a sack !
These Tories never learn.
What can we learn ?
They have seen and read private polls over many months that they are not coming back as a majority government.
Therefore, regardless of whether the Tories are the largest party or not, Cameron will resign.
To be fair, unless he gets majority giovernment, why should he ?
May has been on maneuvers for years. Spooted by our own Carola before anyone else.
I don't buy this argument that Gove is Osborne's proxy candidate. The Minister of Silly Walks somehow thinks he too is a serious candidate.
All have been damaged.
Boris is the next leader. Given the state of the economy in 2020 [ who knows ? ] , he could yet be PM - if the Tories can ever win outright.
Of course, all this presupposes, there will be no referendum except maybe a straight in / out one.0 -
YG seems to show no noticeable impact of Newark whatever, which was also my doorstep impression yesterday. A small note of caution, though: the poll shows a sharp dip in Cameron's popularity (-5 net) and rise in Milibands (+5), which could be something genuine or could also show a Labour-leaning sample. Worth waiting for a few more polls before we jump to conclusions.0
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Shop owners will also pass on the higher taxes they will have to pay in the shape of even higher rents to tenants or higher prices to customers.ToryJim said:@TGOHF
Surely increasing taxes on farms will only ultimately increase the price of food? So so far Labour are looking at raising NI thud reducing people's disposable incomes and then introducing other taxes that will push up the price of food. So their answer to a so-called cost of living crisis is to reduce peoples livings and increase their costs.
The stated aim of this is to revive the High Street, God knows how it is supposed to do that, and its not as if High Streets in the South East are doing terribly well (we lost two more shops in our local High Street last month). One can only hope that the Mail have got it wrong. If they haven't it looks far more like another Labour let's punish Tory voting areas measure.0 -
Morning all.
“BLOODBATH”…! – a tad hyperbolic me thinks, I thought a lowly spad got fired?0 -
Mr. Llama, after the recent spate of hacked sites and security alerts, the High Street should band together to emphasise the far superior levels of safety for cash and customers' information.
If Miliband's policies are accurately reported they're just crazy. The question is whether he's driven by malice or idiocy.0 -
Labour aren't interested in the cost of living of the 65%.ToryJim said:@TGOHF
Surely increasing taxes on farms will only ultimately increase the price of food? So so far Labour are looking at raising NI thud reducing people's disposable incomes and then introducing other taxes that will push up the price of food. So their answer to a so-called cost of living crisis is to reduce peoples livings and increase their costs.
The 35% can be kept happy with higher public spending.
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Thanks TSE. Agreed. I suspect May, like many more level headed Tories, is probably assuming that the Tories' number is up. There was a theory on UKPR that they have a "low top" - hence why any brief flirtation with the lead relies on Labour subsidence and tends to be fleeting.
Low tops, dates from hell. Do your own jokes.0 -
Well, for a start they are not yet Miliband's policies.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, after the recent spate of hacked sites and security alerts, the High Street should band together to emphasise the far superior levels of safety for cash and customers' information.
If Miliband's policies are accurately reported they're just crazy. The question is whether he's driven by malice or idiocy.0 -
After the Gove-May love-in Cameron desperately needs to start to get a grip,leading to the coming reshuffle.If he does as he should and he relegates both Gove and May and shifts them to minor roles.Yet,if he does that he will be seen to be backing either Osborne or Johnson as part of his succession planning.There are 1 or 2 other possible players,Hunt,for example,who are bound to want to stake their claim to be no 1 whilst professing undying support for the current leader.This is his biggest test yet.He must get a grip.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2651695/Behind-bluster-Theresa-May-Michael-Gove-battle-Tory-Party-leader.html0 -
Inevitable effect of the UK's overconsumption and the growing inequality globalisation is causing.HurstLlama said:
Shop owners will also pass on the higher taxes they will have to pay in the shape of even higher rents to tenants or higher prices to customers.ToryJim said:@TGOHF
Surely increasing taxes on farms will only ultimately increase the price of food? So so far Labour are looking at raising NI thud reducing people's disposable incomes and then introducing other taxes that will push up the price of food. So their answer to a so-called cost of living crisis is to reduce peoples livings and increase their costs.
The stated aim of this is to revive the High Street, God knows how it is supposed to do that, and its not as if High Streets in the South East are doing terribly well (we lost two more shops in our local High Street last month). One can only hope that the Mail have got it wrong. If they haven't it looks far more like another Labour let's punish Tory voting areas measure.
Some demographic groups will need to lose out to enable more favoured people to live in the style they decide they deserve.
Up to now the private sector wwc has been the group which has lost out - that's a group the PPE boys and metropolitan overclass hate.
But the private sector wwc has been squeezed pretty dry so now its the turn of the private sector middle class and rural areas.
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Mid-ranking SpAd fired, Gove forced into a public apology. Two "next leader" contenders damaged. Trebles all round for anyone with Osborne's name on a betting slip.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
“BLOODBATH”…! – a tad hyperbolic me thinks, I thought a lowly spad got fired?0 -
Glad to see Ed Milliband a man in charge of a debt ridden organisation is taking advice from Mr Grimsey.
"He was appointed CEO of Focus (DIY) on its acquisition by Cerberus Capital for £230m in June 2007, stating at the time that "Focus has the potential to be one of the most successful operators in the DIY sector". Two years later, in August 2009, Grimsey successfully sought a CVA agreement with creditors to save the business from administration. In May 2011, with Grimsey now as chairman, the company was declared insolvent and appointed Ernst & Young as administrators."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Grimsey
and Mr Grimsey's solution is just to tax successful Businesses even more and then more of us can enjoy the delights of CVA's?0 -
Marf is fine, just really busy.There are no cartoonists whom everyone likes (I detest Scarfe, for instance) but most of us rate her highly and so do others, so we have to take what time she can spare.0
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Mr Dancer I'm not ruling out the possibility it's malice and idiocy.0
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Mr. Jim, that's a fair point. Idiots can be vindictive too. Cf Honorius.0
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So let me get this right.
UKIP want to bring down Cameron so that Eurosceptics can take over the party. The mechanism to do this is by hurting the Tories so that they cannot form a government. Miliband will support a referendum (after all he is so much more trustworthy than Cameron).
In 2020 the Tories sweep back to power in alliance with UKIP and Britain is free at last. Old men dance with young maidens in the street (Farage will be older by then). Taxi drivers will put on their uniforms with pride. All will be well with the world.
It certainly is hard to see how such a plan could fail...another_richard said:
Labour aren't interested in the cost of living of the 65%.ToryJim said:@TGOHF
Surely increasing taxes on farms will only ultimately increase the price of food? So so far Labour are looking at raising NI thud reducing people's disposable incomes and then introducing other taxes that will push up the price of food. So their answer to a so-called cost of living crisis is to reduce peoples livings and increase their costs.
The 35% can be kept happy with higher public spending.0 -
On topic: On a scale 1 to 10 of ministerial bust-ups, this rates about 4. What makes it marginally more interesting is that it is actually about a real issue.0
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More of a 7/10 so far because the PM had to step in personally, in public, to calm the affair. One has to assume we can only see the tip of the iceberg.Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: On a scale 1 to 10 of ministerial bust-ups, this rates about 4. What makes it marginally more interesting is that it is actually about a real issue.
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Where would the Internet be without hyperbole? I'm surprised they didn't go for 'massacre'. It's a shame as I have a modicum of respect for both Gove and May, loathsome urban politicos as they undoubtedly are.SimonStClare said:
“BLOODBATH”…! – a tad hyperbolic me thinks, I thought a lowly spad got fired?
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Mr. M, the internet would be a million times better without hyperbole.0
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I completely disagree. It's a storm in a Westminster teacup. Heads banged together? Done. Now they should get on with fixing the actual issue at hand.volcanopete said:After the Gove-May love-in Cameron desperately needs to start to get a grip,leading to the coming reshuffle.If he does as he should and he relegates both Gove and May and shifts them to minor roles.Yet,if he does that he will be seen to be backing either Osborne or Johnson as part of his succession planning.There are 1 or 2 other possible players,Hunt,for example,who are bound to want to stake their claim to be no 1 whilst professing undying support for the current leader.This is his biggest test yet.He must get a grip.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2651695/Behind-bluster-Theresa-May-Michael-Gove-battle-Tory-Party-leader.html
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Well, 10 out of 10 is a pair of Cabinet resignations. 9 out of ten is the Blair/Brown feud: mutual knifings and deliberately false briefings over a period of years. 6 out of ten is IDS vs Osborne on the welfare budget. 5 out of ten is Huhne's outburst in Cabinet.Jonathan said:
More of a 7/10 so far because the PM had to step in personally, in public, to calm the affair. One has to assume we can only see the tip of the iceberg.Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: On a scale 1 to 10 of ministerial bust-ups, this rates about 4. What makes it marginally more interesting is that it is actually about a real issue.
This is Michael Gove getting a bit over-excited, not for the first time, on an issue he feels strongly about (and where he might well have a point). 4 out of ten might actually be overstating it, come to think of it.
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That's the plan.foxinsoxuk said:So let me get this right.
UKIP want to bring down Cameron so that Eurosceptics can take over the party. The mechanism to do this is by hurting the Tories so that they cannot form a government. Miliband will support a referendum (after all he is so much more trustworthy than Cameron).
In 2020 the Tories sweep back to power in alliance with UKIP and Britain is free at last. Old men dance with young maidens in the street (Farage will be older by then). Taxi drivers will put on their uniforms with pride. All will be well with the world.
It certainly is hard to see how such a plan could fail...another_richard said:
Labour aren't interested in the cost of living of the 65%.ToryJim said:@TGOHF
Surely increasing taxes on farms will only ultimately increase the price of food? So so far Labour are looking at raising NI thud reducing people's disposable incomes and then introducing other taxes that will push up the price of food. So their answer to a so-called cost of living crisis is to reduce peoples livings and increase their costs.
The 35% can be kept happy with higher public spending.
Given the widespread view of EdM and EdB it should work.
If the Conservatives, led by May perhaps, become more votefriendly to women and wishywashys while UKIP hoovers up the wwc vote then definately so.
What the Conservatives, with or without UKIP, do on returning to power in 2018-2020 is another matter.
The fundamental problems the UK faces aren't going to disappear whoever's in government.
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Good morning, Nick.
Nowadays any national poll showing a Labour lead, even a minuscule one, is likely to have been caused by a Labour-leaning sample.
It is not just the doubt over Miliband's leadership, but, after Newark, the electorate has good cause to wonder whether Labour will turn up at the contest in 2015.
Perhaps Rachel Reeves can turn things around and energise the party? She seems to be trying.NickPalmer said:YG seems to show no noticeable impact of Newark whatever, which was also my doorstep impression yesterday. A small note of caution, though: the poll shows a sharp dip in Cameron's popularity (-5 net) and rise in Milibands (+5), which could be something genuine or could also show a Labour-leaning sample. Worth waiting for a few more polls before we jump to conclusions.
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By your own scale it's a 7 or a 6.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, 10 out of 10 is a pair of Cabinet resignations. 9 out of ten is the Blair/Brown feud: mutual knifings and deliberately false briefings over a period of years. 6 out of ten is IDS vs Osborne on the welfare budget. 5 out of ten is Huhne's outburst in Cabinet.Jonathan said:
More of a 7/10 so far because the PM had to step in personally, in public, to calm the affair. One has to assume we can only see the tip of the iceberg.Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: On a scale 1 to 10 of ministerial bust-ups, this rates about 4. What makes it marginally more interesting is that it is actually about a real issue.
This is Michael Gove getting a bit over-excited, not for the first time, on an issue he feels strongly about (and where he might well have a point). 4 out of ten might actually be overstating it, come to think of it.0 -
Nostalgic hankering after a 'country' that started to dematerialise 50 years ago? Sounds like you've plenty in common with a certain political party.SouthamObserver said:@Stuart_Dickson - I am all for self government. I am opposed to narrow-minded nationalism. The kind that seeks to suggest that there are fundamental differences between people who have lived together, worked together, laughed together, played together and developed all kinds of other deep bonds over the course of hundreds of years. That's not progressive, it's reactionary. SNP nationalism is the same as UKIP nationalism: if we get rid of that other, that foreign thing, that holds us back then everything will be so much better. The English are Tories, they vote UKIP, they feed the Westminster beast that oppresses us, says the SNP. And that leads to the fibs about things such as EU membership and the obfuscation over the implications of a shared currency. It's not about a better Scotland or UK for nationalists, it's about a separate one. Not my cup of rosie, I'm afraid.
Nice to see the PB Tories have opened up a Partido Popular chapter though.
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Senior Tories preparing for the post-Cameron era because they don't think they'll win in 2015? At least they're facing up to reality.0
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I am obliged to a Pat Condell and Brian Corbett (late gent of this Parish) for the following, which made me smile:
(Southam Observer look away now)
"Progressive” leftism is an indulgence of smug middle class hypocrites who have mistaken their ivory tower for the high moral ground.0 -
I was at the Policy Exchange gig yesterday. It was clear that both speeches were aimed at the msm, not the audience - most of whom would know that a lot of that claims Gove spouted were twaddle.
Hunt was dreadful - claiming 'teachers' were against the DfE policies that they're most in favour of. He really isn't on top of the ed brief. I don't think his heart's in it tbh. He's far more fluent/convincing on other areas.
The start of the day was:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Johnston_(Colorado_legislator)0 -
Miss Carola, Hunt as in Tristram? One would've thought education would be natural territory for him.0
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Hello, Avery. I try to take an objective view of polls, and we're seeing nothing to contradict the consistent pattern of modest Labour leads in votes (and correspondingly more in seats). You can always say "maybe next week" another 43 times...AveryLP said:Good morning, Nick.
Nowadays any national poll showing a Labour lead, even a minuscule one, is likely to have been caused by a Labour-leaning sample.
It is not just the doubt over Miliband's leadership, but, after Newark, the electorate has good cause to wonder whether Labour will turn up at the contest in 2015.
Perhaps Rachel Reeves can turn things around and energise the party? She seems to be trying.NickPalmer said:YG seems to show no noticeable impact of Newark whatever, which was also my doorstep impression yesterday. A small note of caution, though: the poll shows a sharp dip in Cameron's popularity (-5 net) and rise in Milibands (+5), which could be something genuine or could also show a Labour-leaning sample. Worth waiting for a few more polls before we jump to conclusions.
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No, he's saying you are receiving 4% of the LD 2010 vote. It's a handy c. 1% addition to your vote shareStuart_Dickson said:
- "NATS: 4" !!??!! Is that a typo?Financier said:YouGov: 33/37/7/14/5
Another bad 2010 VI split for LDs; LAB:35; LD:28; Con:1; UKIP:10; Green:10; NATS:4
Green support coming mainly from LDs and voters aged 18-24 and then 25-39
On who should succeed DC: Boris; 25; May 19; DK: 48
Just 42% of those polled interested in football.
Jeepers creepers. We only got 2.3% at the last UK general election in 2010 (SNP 1.7% + PC 0.6%).
Can't wait to see the next full-sample Scottish poll. Looks like UKIP's advance may have put rocket fuel in the SNP's booster.0 -
'star' of the day.Carola said:I was at the Policy Exchange gig yesterday. It was clear that both speeches were aimed at the msm, not the audience - most of whom would know that a lot of that claims Gove spouted were twaddle.
Hunt was dreadful - claiming 'teachers' were against the DfE policies that they're most in favour of. He really isn't on top of the ed brief. I don't think his heart's in it tbh. He's far more fluent/convincing on other areas.
The start of the day was:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Johnston_(Colorado_legislator)0 -
Yep. Haven't rated him from the start - had a few heated debates about that early on. Now most are resigned to the fact that he doesn't know what he's talking about in some areas, and 'Gove-lite' in others.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Carola, Hunt as in Tristram? One would've thought education would be natural territory for him.
His bumbling response to questions was embarrassing.0 -
If you don't like her work then silence is always an option.Stuart_Dickson said:
Delightful.SquareRoot said:
So, now everybody who reads this blog is compelled to like a cartoonist? I'm a big fan of good cartoonists, and am actually a bit of an aficionado. That does not mean I have to like all cartoonists. Quite the opposite in fact: I am choosy. I don't rate Marf one bit.
Writing and drawing cartoons is a job. Just like writing a blog article, driving a taxi or being a Lib Dem ramper. Just because Marf chooses to spend her time doing what she does does not oblige everybody else on the planet to think she is good at it.0 -
Perhaps Tristams heart lies elsewhere, he has just launched a new book.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Ten-Cities-that-Made-Empire/dp/184614325X/ref=la_B001JS08HC_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1402218702&sr=1-1
It sounds rather more interesting than his ideas for education.Carola said:
Yep. Haven't rated him from the start - had a few heated debates about that early on. Now most are resigned to the fact that he doesn't know what he's talking about in some areas, and 'Gove-lite' in others.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Carola, Hunt as in Tristram? One would've thought education would be natural territory for him.
His bumbling response to questions was embarrassing.0 -
I have a couple as wellToms said:
I think Antifrank has a few also. And no doubt others.DecrepitJohnL said:
I commissioned one from Marf once, as a gift.Toms said:
Dunno about falling out. I expect she is busy. For the record I own a couple of signed copies of her work, and have given one or two as presents.MikeK said:
Good Morning. I agree with your last line: Where has Marf gone; why haven't we seen her on PB lately; has OGH and the talented cartoonist fallen out?Toms said:My view is simple(minded?):
Rats in a sack.
Edit: We need Marf!0 -
Nah, education is hard. It is not a policy area that is susceptible to sound bites, vacuous statements and quick fixes. It is also, in terms of the future prosperity of the UK, probably the most important ministry. So not an area that is natural territory for modern politicians like T. Hunt. Give him International Development and he would be as happy as Larry.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Carola, Hunt as in Tristram? One would've thought education would be natural territory for him.
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LikeHurstLlama said:I am obliged to a Pat Condell and Brian Corbett (late gent of this Parish) for the following, which made me smile:
(Southam Observer look away now)
"Progressive” leftism is an indulgence of smug middle class hypocrites who have mistaken their ivory tower for the high moral ground.
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Can you use first names as well? My first thought, was "of course the SoS for Health isn't on top of the ed brief"....Carola said:I was at the Policy Exchange gig yesterday. It was clear that both speeches were aimed at the msm, not the audience - most of whom would know that a lot of that claims Gove spouted were twaddle.
Hunt was dreadful - claiming 'teachers' were against the DfE policies that they're most in favour of. He really isn't on top of the ed brief. I don't think his heart's in it tbh. He's far more fluent/convincing on other areas.
The start of the day was:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Johnston_(Colorado_legislator)0
