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Punters make it a 65% chance that Johnson will still be PM on Jan 1 2022 – politicalbetting.com

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    dixiedean said:

    FFS..no, just no....this ridiculous obsession by the government to open up.for a week over Christmas. We just need to stick this out for another 10-12 weeks and Granny should be safe.

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1329904633075130374?s=19

    And we'll be locked up through January. With November the 2 worst months of the year anyways.
    February at least is mercifully short.
    It’s a shame we don’t have all the short months in the winter, and make the 31-day months all the ones we like.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,153
    edited November 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    If the hospitality sector is not told by this Monday whether it will be allowed to reopen on December 3 and, if so, on what terms it is going to be pretty hard to find real ale in your pubs. Or for businesses to plan menus / organise staff rotas etc. These things don’t happen overnight. Businesses are not going to order stuff in if they don’t whether and how they can operate. Who’s going to go to a pub or restaurant on NY’s Eve if they have to be out by 10 pm?

    The silence from government either means that:

    - restrictions will continue as now beyond 2 December or
    - the government has no idea how the hospitality sector works and is too arrogant to listen to or learn from those who do or
    - does not care about the harm done to the sector.

    Could be all three of course.

    I have a booking for Thur 3 Dec in a pub. I'm not hopeful it will be able to take place. I fear that extended closure of pubs and restaurants beyond 3 Dec will be a 'price' which will have to be paid for the 'week of Christmas relaxation'.

    :angry:
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MSNBC speculating that Trump might have had a breakdown. Hopefully true.

    I don't care whether he's mad or sane, dead, dying, or full of life; I just want the fucker gone. Today would be fine. Yesterday, better.
    Pence should invoke the 25th.

    He won't. He should.
    Who initiates it? As I understand it needs to be signed off by the VP, but doesn't it come from cabinet?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited November 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    If the hospitality sector is not told by this Monday whether it will be allowed to reopen on December 3 and, if so, on what terms it is going to be pretty hard to find real ale in your pubs. Or for businesses to plan menus / organise staff rotas etc. These things don’t happen overnight. Businesses are not going to order stuff in if they don’t whether and how they can operate. Who’s going to go to a pub or restaurant on NY’s Eve if they have to be out by 10 pm?

    The silence from government either means that:

    - restrictions will continue as now beyond 2 December or
    - the government has no idea how the hospitality sector works and is too arrogant to listen to or learn from those who do or
    - does not care about the harm done to the sector.

    Could be all three of course.

    The whole things just ridiculous. Whatever they do is going to get criticism from one side or another, obviously. But that is not remotely an excuse for not actually making clear what they are going to do. And the mixed messaging is ridiculous. You've got people briefing that everything will stay shut, possibly a brief respite for Christmas. Somewhere else in Government the Culture Secretary is briefing that people will be able to go to football matches.

    And meanwhile... Brexit.

    And all of it with common thread. The concept that planning is unnecessary. After all, if there's no sign of the Government having anything remotely resembling a plan, why should anyone else enjoy the prospect of that benefit.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    justin124 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Good news - though I recall that in the Bush v Gore standoff in 2000 certification by the Florida Secretary of State did not decide the matter. It still went to the Florida Supreme Court - and finally to the US Supreme Court.
    Betfair appear to be digging in like Trump.

    How the holy fuck can they still not settle Georgia??
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    edited November 2020
    Ironically the Christmas "relaxation" will mean heightened anxiety for many.
    How do you turn down relatives who believe the virus is a hoax?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    justin124 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Good news - though I recall that in the Bush v Gore standoff in 2000 certification by the Florida Secretary of State did not decide the matter. It still went to the Florida Supreme Court - and finally to the US Supreme Court.
    Betfair appear to be digging in like Trump.

    How the holy fuck can they still not settle Georgia??
    Presumably because of the prospect of a recount. Have they settled Wisconsin?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    I just want "the rule of 6" back. We haven't had it since the 18th September in the North East.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Scorsese's No Direction Home epic Dylan documentary on Sky Arts at 11:15. :smiley:
  • Cyclefree said:

    If the hospitality sector is not told by this Monday whether it will be allowed to reopen on December 3 and, if so, on what terms it is going to be pretty hard to find real ale in your pubs. Or for businesses to plan menus / organise staff rotas etc. These things don’t happen overnight. Businesses are not going to order stuff in if they don’t whether and how they can operate. Who’s going to go to a pub or restaurant on NY’s Eve if they have to be out by 10 pm?

    The silence from government either means that:

    - restrictions will continue as now beyond 2 December or
    - the government has no idea how the hospitality sector works and is too arrogant to listen to or learn from those who do or
    - does not care about the harm done to the sector.

    Could be all three of course.

    Both my friend and my cousin have been preparing to reopen their businesses next week only to be told there is another lockdown for their sector the week after. One has decided not to bother, the other has already taken booking and now is wondering whether she should cancel them or honour them.

    Bl**dy shambles!
  • I just want "the rule of 6" back. We haven't had it since the 18th September in the North East.

    Was that Star Trek Series 2 Ep, 4?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MSNBC speculating that Trump might have had a breakdown. Hopefully true.

    I don't care whether he's mad or sane, dead, dying, or full of life; I just want the fucker gone. Today would be fine. Yesterday, better.
    Pence should invoke the 25th.

    He won't. He should.
    Who initiates it? As I understand it needs to be signed off by the VP, but doesn't it come from cabinet?
    IIRC VP proposes, cabinet has to agree. Pres can appeal to Congress.
  • dixiedean said:

    Scorsese's No Direction Home epic Dylan documentary on Sky Arts at 11:15. :smiley:

    Help me out here, I've only seen two Scorsese films (Taxi Driver, Goodfellas), and I liked the first and didn't like the other. Given that, which of his films should I watch next?
  • alex_ said:

    justin124 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Good news - though I recall that in the Bush v Gore standoff in 2000 certification by the Florida Secretary of State did not decide the matter. It still went to the Florida Supreme Court - and finally to the US Supreme Court.
    Betfair appear to be digging in like Trump.

    How the holy fuck can they still not settle Georgia??
    Presumably because of the prospect of a recount. Have they settled Wisconsin?
    Hasn't the recount already happened?

    Didn't that find the missing flash drive of votes etc? Though it didn't change the result what else is to come?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Cyclefree said:

    If the hospitality sector is not told by this Monday whether it will be allowed to reopen on December 3 and, if so, on what terms it is going to be pretty hard to find real ale in your pubs. Or for businesses to plan menus / organise staff rotas etc. These things don’t happen overnight. Businesses are not going to order stuff in if they don’t whether and how they can operate. Who’s going to go to a pub or restaurant on NY’s Eve if they have to be out by 10 pm?

    The silence from government either means that:

    - restrictions will continue as now beyond 2 December or
    - the government has no idea how the hospitality sector works and is too arrogant to listen to or learn from those who do or
    - does not care about the harm done to the sector.

    Could be all three of course.

    I am not sure that my patch has low enough rates to be less than Tier 3 anywhere. It isn't just the inner city any more.



    Since Mrs Foxy tested positive this morning, 2 more staff on our unit have been confirmed, and a further 2 isolating as suspects. Over this weekend our hospital is going to hit 300 covid inpatients, having peaked at 230 in April.

    Much as I sympathise with the hospitality sector, going out at the moment to eat drink and be merry is not a good idea.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Interested to hear PBers views on the 32m Mike Yeadon interview on 'Unlocked'. It is very slick - is there anything in it?
  • alex_ said:

    justin124 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Good news - though I recall that in the Bush v Gore standoff in 2000 certification by the Florida Secretary of State did not decide the matter. It still went to the Florida Supreme Court - and finally to the US Supreme Court.
    Betfair appear to be digging in like Trump.

    How the holy fuck can they still not settle Georgia??
    Presumably because of the prospect of a recount. Have they settled Wisconsin?
    Hasn't the recount already happened?

    Didn't that find the missing flash drive of votes etc? Though it didn't change the result what else is to come?
    I understand that Trump can demand a final recount if he files for one before Wednesday. He will.
  • kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't like what they are doing, but to compare shameless defence of Patel with what Trump is doing is certifiably insane. I'm currently reading his latest book, I hope it is not that crazy.

    It's also extremely unhelpful because it makes it easier, not harder, for the government to defend itself. "You say we're acting like Trump trying to steal an election? Come off it". It actually stops people talking about Patel and the response the report in yet another attempt to draw Trump in to an issue where the gov is in trouble anyway.

    Don't give Boris an easy out like that!
    There are some obvious parallels but they shouldn't be carried to far. Boris is not trying to pull off a coup.
    Last year Boris gave us unlawful prorogation and lying to the Palace, an election in which he ducked scrutiny and deployed false social media messaging, and with escape from judicial scrutiny planned. Are you sure Boris is not in the coup business?
    Well I don't think his moral compass would restrain him if the occasion arose but it hasn't, it won't and he'd probably balls it up if it did.

    Different matter in the States. I think their Institutions have undergone a significant stress test. Looks like they are going to pass, but if the margin of victory had been a little closer?

    My confidence in US Democracy has been seriously undermined.
    If the margin were close, the election would have been stolen, I have very little doubt.
    Maybe that is why Trump was trading at those oddly short prices before polling day. The smart money knew that Biden had to do more than win to win.
    That was my assumption but so far despite all the noise the law has found against him in I think all except one case, where the state had been letting ballots through without dates when the letter of the law said they had to be dated. Even where issues have been in front of judges he appointed, they do seem to be doing their jobs. And if the judges do their jobs, and the Dems hold the speakership of Congress, it's not clear that Trump has a path.

    There would be a *little* bit more incentive on judges to put their thumbs on the scale if it had been closer to altering the result but it's not obvious that they'd have been crooked.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alex_ said:

    justin124 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Good news - though I recall that in the Bush v Gore standoff in 2000 certification by the Florida Secretary of State did not decide the matter. It still went to the Florida Supreme Court - and finally to the US Supreme Court.
    Betfair appear to be digging in like Trump.

    How the holy fuck can they still not settle Georgia??
    Presumably because of the prospect of a recount. Have they settled Wisconsin?
    Hasn't the recount already happened?

    Didn't that find the missing flash drive of votes etc? Though it didn't change the result what else is to come?
    No, that was a state initiated audit. They could have done it in for any race in the recent round of elections, and could have done it on a sample basis, but they decided to make it a full hand recount because of the circumstances and to try and remove any suspicion (eg. about machines etc). Post certification, Trump is entitled to ask for a formal recount. This will be done through machines. Unlike in Wisconsin it appears he doesn't have to pay for it.
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MSNBC speculating that Trump might have had a breakdown. Hopefully true.

    I don't care whether he's mad or sane, dead, dying, or full of life; I just want the fucker gone. Today would be fine. Yesterday, better.
    Pence should invoke the 25th.

    He won't. He should.
    Who initiates it? As I understand it needs to be signed off by the VP, but doesn't it come from cabinet?
    Veep and majority of Cabinet.

    The POTUS can object in which case three weeks later the Congress votes on the matter but Trump would be out for those weeks - and hopefully Pence and the Cabinet would have given cover for the Congress to do the right thing.

    Interestingly if this happens then Pence only becomes Acting President. He doesn't become the 46th POTUS.
  • alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    justin124 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Good news - though I recall that in the Bush v Gore standoff in 2000 certification by the Florida Secretary of State did not decide the matter. It still went to the Florida Supreme Court - and finally to the US Supreme Court.
    Betfair appear to be digging in like Trump.

    How the holy fuck can they still not settle Georgia??
    Presumably because of the prospect of a recount. Have they settled Wisconsin?
    Hasn't the recount already happened?

    Didn't that find the missing flash drive of votes etc? Though it didn't change the result what else is to come?
    No, that was a state initiated audit. They could have done it in for any race in the recent round of elections, and could have done it on a sample basis, but they decided to make it a full hand recount because of the circumstances and to try and remove any suspicion (eg. about machines etc). Post certification, Trump is entitled to ask for a formal recount. This will be done through machines. Unlike in Wisconsin it appears he doesn't have to pay for it.
    What a farce.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Cyclefree said:

    If the hospitality sector is not told by this Monday whether it will be allowed to reopen on December 3 and, if so, on what terms it is going to be pretty hard to find real ale in your pubs. Or for businesses to plan menus / organise staff rotas etc. These things don’t happen overnight. Businesses are not going to order stuff in if they don’t whether and how they can operate. Who’s going to go to a pub or restaurant on NY’s Eve if they have to be out by 10 pm?

    The silence from government either means that:

    - restrictions will continue as now beyond 2 December or
    - the government has no idea how the hospitality sector works and is too arrogant to listen to or learn from those who do or
    - does not care about the harm done to the sector.

    Could be all three of course.

    I have a booking for Thur 3 Dec in a pub. I'm not hopeful it will be able to take place. I fear that extended closure of pubs and restaurants beyond 3 Dec will be a 'price' which will have to be paid for the 'week of Christmas relaxation'.

    :angry:
    What is so annoying is that non-essential shops are meant to be closed. Are they? Are they buggery? Sony had long queues outside for some bloody game or other. Other places are open claiming that it’s just for click and collect etc. No-one seems to be enforcing the rules such as they are. The only ones who are are businesses like my daughter’s who have done everything they have everything been asked to, at some expense, without proper support and are being hammered day in day out.

    FFS! They’ve even removed the £1000 per employee if kept on until February help. Basically there is no help for such businesses beyond a tiny monthly amount which does not cover fixed costs. Furlough only covers employees but does not cover NI or pension contributions.

    We might not mind so much if this sacrifice was helping reduce the spread of the virus. But it isn’t because everyone else is breaking the rules and spreading it but only one sector is having to bear the financial pain.

    If, as per Foxy, extended closure is necessary, well for fuck’s sake, bloody well support those businesses properly. What is being done is wrong and unfair.

    Aah - why do I bother. As has been confirmed today, this government has no idea of or care for any principles, whether of integrity, decency, honesty or fairness. All it cares about is keeping its snout in the trough.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    Get this more often than not on the iPhone at the mo



  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scorsese's No Direction Home epic Dylan documentary on Sky Arts at 11:15. :smiley:

    Help me out here, I've only seen two Scorsese films (Taxi Driver, Goodfellas), and I liked the first and didn't like the other. Given that, which of his films should I watch next?
    The Departed.
    Anyone with even a passing interest in Bob Dylan should watch No Direction Home though. Mainly cos the great man speaks. Often untruthfully, as one can fully expect.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If the hospitality sector is not told by this Monday whether it will be allowed to reopen on December 3 and, if so, on what terms it is going to be pretty hard to find real ale in your pubs. Or for businesses to plan menus / organise staff rotas etc. These things don’t happen overnight. Businesses are not going to order stuff in if they don’t whether and how they can operate. Who’s going to go to a pub or restaurant on NY’s Eve if they have to be out by 10 pm?

    The silence from government either means that:

    - restrictions will continue as now beyond 2 December or
    - the government has no idea how the hospitality sector works and is too arrogant to listen to or learn from those who do or
    - does not care about the harm done to the sector.

    Could be all three of course.

    I am not sure that my patch has low enough rates to be less than Tier 3 anywhere. It isn't just the inner city any more.



    Since Mrs Foxy tested positive this morning, 2 more staff on our unit have been confirmed, and a further 2 isolating as suspects. Over this weekend our hospital is going to hit 300 covid inpatients, having peaked at 230 in April.

    Much as I sympathise with the hospitality sector, going out at the moment to eat drink and be merry is not a good idea.
    Possibly not in your area.

    Round here it’s different.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scorsese's No Direction Home epic Dylan documentary on Sky Arts at 11:15. :smiley:

    Help me out here, I've only seen two Scorsese films (Taxi Driver, Goodfellas), and I liked the first and didn't like the other. Given that, which of his films should I watch next?
    Mean Streets? It’s an early one like Taxi Driver. Do you know which part Scorsese played in TD?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited November 2020
    @Cyclefree my feeling is nowhere will be able to open before Christmas, at least not indoors. I dropped a card round my mates earlier, he said he was going to book up a pub for the 5th, and I couldn’t help feeling he was wasting his time
  • isam said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scorsese's No Direction Home epic Dylan documentary on Sky Arts at 11:15. :smiley:

    Help me out here, I've only seen two Scorsese films (Taxi Driver, Goodfellas), and I liked the first and didn't like the other. Given that, which of his films should I watch next?
    Mean Streets? It’s an early one like Taxi Driver. Do you know which part Scorsese played in TD?
    isam said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scorsese's No Direction Home epic Dylan documentary on Sky Arts at 11:15. :smiley:

    Help me out here, I've only seen two Scorsese films (Taxi Driver, Goodfellas), and I liked the first and didn't like the other. Given that, which of his films should I watch next?
    Mean Streets? It’s an early one like Taxi Driver. Do you know which part Scorsese played in TD?
    He directed it didn't he? Unless you mean he was actually in the film too, in which case no idea. I'm not a film buff.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    isam said:

    @Cyclefree my feeling is nowhere will be able to open before Christmas, at least not indoors. I dropped a card round my mates earlier, he said he was going to book up a pub for the 5th, and I couldn’t help feeling he was wasting his time

    I just can't see them reverting to any sort of regional system having abandoned it so quickly previously. They don't want the headlines about picking winners.

    And underneath all this, there must be the suspicion that they think that if everything is shut, the immediate impact of the consequences of Jan 1st won't be so obvious.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    isam said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scorsese's No Direction Home epic Dylan documentary on Sky Arts at 11:15. :smiley:

    Help me out here, I've only seen two Scorsese films (Taxi Driver, Goodfellas), and I liked the first and didn't like the other. Given that, which of his films should I watch next?
    Mean Streets? It’s an early one like Taxi Driver. Do you know which part Scorsese played in TD?
    isam said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scorsese's No Direction Home epic Dylan documentary on Sky Arts at 11:15. :smiley:

    Help me out here, I've only seen two Scorsese films (Taxi Driver, Goodfellas), and I liked the first and didn't like the other. Given that, which of his films should I watch next?
    Mean Streets? It’s an early one like Taxi Driver. Do you know which part Scorsese played in TD?
    He directed it didn't he? Unless you mean he was actually in the film too, in which case no idea. I'm not a film buff.
    He directed it and also played one of Travis Bickle’s fares, the one who was spying on his wife having an affair.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    isam said:

    @Cyclefree my feeling is nowhere will be able to open before Christmas, at least not indoors. I dropped a card round my mates earlier, he said he was going to book up a pub for the 5th, and I couldn’t help feeling he was wasting his time

    Here in the SW we went from Tier 1 to Lockdown. I was (and still am) very disappointed about this. Especially as the data now shows that the tiered restrictions worked, and allowed e.g. my business to function better.

    The panicked response to modelling must stop. I'm honestly not sure Boris survives extending the lockdown as leader; I'm pretty sure he doesn't survive a third.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    isam said:


    Get this more often than not on the iPhone at the mo



    Yup. It’s bullshit. It seems to occur mostly when people post lots of tweets and/or embed images. It makes the site unusable at times.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    isam said:

    @Cyclefree my feeling is nowhere will be able to open before Christmas, at least not indoors. I dropped a card round my mates earlier, he said he was going to book up a pub for the 5th, and I couldn’t help feeling he was wasting his time

    I hope you are wrong but I fear you are right.

    I’d much rather the pubs open prior to Christmas than have this daft gimmick over Christmas itself.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scorsese's No Direction Home epic Dylan documentary on Sky Arts at 11:15. :smiley:

    Help me out here, I've only seen two Scorsese films (Taxi Driver, Goodfellas), and I liked the first and didn't like the other. Given that, which of his films should I watch next?
    The King of Comedy. Hugo.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    As a matter of interest, has any Tory MP expressed sympathy for the victims of bullying today, or only for the Bully?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    isam said:

    @Cyclefree my feeling is nowhere will be able to open before Christmas, at least not indoors. I dropped a card round my mates earlier, he said he was going to book up a pub for the 5th, and I couldn’t help feeling he was wasting his time

    I hope you are wrong but I fear you are right.

    I’d much rather the pubs open prior to Christmas than have this daft gimmick over Christmas itself.

    I suspect the treasury agrees with you.

    Surely more money is taken in the run up to Christmas than the last few days....
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    edited November 2020
    alex_ said:

    isam said:

    @Cyclefree my feeling is nowhere will be able to open before Christmas, at least not indoors. I dropped a card round my mates earlier, he said he was going to book up a pub for the 5th, and I couldn’t help feeling he was wasting his time

    I just can't see them reverting to any sort of regional system having abandoned it so quickly previously. They don't want the headlines about picking winners.

    And underneath all this, there must be the suspicion that they think that if everything is shut, the immediate impact of the consequences of Jan 1st won't be so obvious.
    So the claim that the PM made about the lockdown ending on 2 December, what with it being in legislation and all, was a big fat lie? Colour me surprised. So are they going to bring in new laws and regulations? When? And are they going to provide some support?

    Because if pubs and restaurants lose the Xmas trade and the NY trade and Jan and February there won’t be any venues to reopen. They’ve already lost Easter and all bar 1 Bank Holiday and all the other special days like Mother’s Day and most of the summer. In fact the only time they have been able to open at anything like normality has been between 4 July and 24 September. Out of what now looks like being a year.

    And some people on here complain about losing 20% of their income.

    Give me a fucking break!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If the hospitality sector is not told by this Monday whether it will be allowed to reopen on December 3 and, if so, on what terms it is going to be pretty hard to find real ale in your pubs. Or for businesses to plan menus / organise staff rotas etc. These things don’t happen overnight. Businesses are not going to order stuff in if they don’t whether and how they can operate. Who’s going to go to a pub or restaurant on NY’s Eve if they have to be out by 10 pm?

    The silence from government either means that:

    - restrictions will continue as now beyond 2 December or
    - the government has no idea how the hospitality sector works and is too arrogant to listen to or learn from those who do or
    - does not care about the harm done to the sector.

    Could be all three of course.

    I have a booking for Thur 3 Dec in a pub. I'm not hopeful it will be able to take place. I fear that extended closure of pubs and restaurants beyond 3 Dec will be a 'price' which will have to be paid for the 'week of Christmas relaxation'.

    :angry:
    What is so annoying is that non-essential shops are meant to be closed. Are they? Are they buggery? Sony had long queues outside for some bloody game or other. Other places are open claiming that it’s just for click and collect etc. No-one seems to be enforcing the rules such as they are. The only ones who are are businesses like my daughter’s who have done everything they have everything been asked to, at some expense, without proper support and are being hammered day in day out.

    FFS! They’ve even removed the £1000 per employee if kept on until February help. Basically there is no help for such businesses beyond a tiny monthly amount which does not cover fixed costs. Furlough only covers employees but does not cover NI or pension contributions.

    We might not mind so much if this sacrifice was helping reduce the spread of the virus. But it isn’t because everyone else is breaking the rules and spreading it but only one sector is having to bear the financial pain.

    If, as per Foxy, extended closure is necessary, well for fuck’s sake, bloody well support those businesses properly. What is being done is wrong and unfair.

    Aah - why do I bother. As has been confirmed today, this government has no idea of or care for any principles, whether of integrity, decency, honesty or fairness. All it cares about is keeping its snout in the trough.
    This government’s wanton destruction of pubs should be on its epitaph: this is the Conservative (certainly not conservative) government that wrecked England’s national heritage.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited November 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    alex_ said:

    isam said:

    @Cyclefree my feeling is nowhere will be able to open before Christmas, at least not indoors. I dropped a card round my mates earlier, he said he was going to book up a pub for the 5th, and I couldn’t help feeling he was wasting his time

    I just can't see them reverting to any sort of regional system having abandoned it so quickly previously. They don't want the headlines about picking winners.

    And underneath all this, there must be the suspicion that they think that if everything is shut, the immediate impact of the consequences of Jan 1st won't be so obvious.
    So the claim that the PM made about the lockdown ending on 2 December, what with it being in legislation and all, was a big fat lie? Colour me surprised. So are they going to bring in new laws and regulations? When? And are they going to provide some support?

    Because if pubs and restaurants lose the Xmas trade and the NY trade and Jan and February there won’t be any venues to reopen. They’ve already lost Easter and all bar 1 Bank Holiday and all the other special days like Mother’s Day and most of the summer. In fact the only time they have been able to open at anything like normality has been between 4 July and 24 September. Out of what now looks like being a year.

    And some people on here complain about losing 20% of their income.

    Give me a fucking break!
    I expect they'll let everyone know some time in December. After briefing something different for all of November.

    The rules will be practically the same, just for some obscure reason they will claim that the lockdown is over. Maybe they'll tell people they don't have to have a specific reason to leave their house or something. As if that makes any difference.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Mortimer said:

    isam said:

    @Cyclefree my feeling is nowhere will be able to open before Christmas, at least not indoors. I dropped a card round my mates earlier, he said he was going to book up a pub for the 5th, and I couldn’t help feeling he was wasting his time

    Here in the SW we went from Tier 1 to Lockdown. I was (and still am) very disappointed about this. Especially as the data now shows that the tiered restrictions worked, and allowed e.g. my business to function better.

    The panicked response to modelling must stop. I'm honestly not sure Boris survives extending the lockdown as leader; I'm pretty sure he doesn't survive a third.
    Yet Brixham has become a SW horror story. Down to a few hospitality centres who were not playing by the rules.

    Need to start issuing banning orders as a publican for 5 years for breach of Covid regs. Then see how many will allow lock-ins.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scorsese's No Direction Home epic Dylan documentary on Sky Arts at 11:15. :smiley:

    Help me out here, I've only seen two Scorsese films (Taxi Driver, Goodfellas), and I liked the first and didn't like the other. Given that, which of his films should I watch next?
    The King of Comedy. Hugo.
    Ah yes, The King of Comedy is one of my favs. The bit where he is imagining Jerry Lewis telling him he’s a genius is brilliant.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,056

    isam said:


    Get this more often than not on the iPhone at the mo



    Yup. It’s bullshit. It seems to occur mostly when people post lots of tweets and/or embed images. It makes the site unusable at times.
    I get this frequently on iPad Safari, never on iPhone safari, and never on Mac Safari. A reset fixes it for a few hours. An Apple bug I would guess, not Vanilla's fault. But vanilla should work around it.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    carnforth said:

    isam said:


    Get this more often than not on the iPhone at the mo



    Yup. It’s bullshit. It seems to occur mostly when people post lots of tweets and/or embed images. It makes the site unusable at times.
    I get this frequently on iPad Safari, never on iPhone safari, and never on Mac Safari. A reset fixes it for a few hours. An Apple bug I would guess, not Vanilla's fault. But vanilla should work around it.
    Use Chrome?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    Mortimer said:

    isam said:

    @Cyclefree my feeling is nowhere will be able to open before Christmas, at least not indoors. I dropped a card round my mates earlier, he said he was going to book up a pub for the 5th, and I couldn’t help feeling he was wasting his time

    Here in the SW we went from Tier 1 to Lockdown. I was (and still am) very disappointed about this. Especially as the data now shows that the tiered restrictions worked, and allowed e.g. my business to function better.

    The panicked response to modelling must stop. I'm honestly not sure Boris survives extending the lockdown as leader; I'm pretty sure he doesn't survive a third.
    I’m completely apolitical about this now. I’d welcome Steve Baker as PM if I thought he could manage this competently!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Rudi Guiliani self isolating after son gets Covid.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    carnforth said:

    isam said:


    Get this more often than not on the iPhone at the mo



    Yup. It’s bullshit. It seems to occur mostly when people post lots of tweets and/or embed images. It makes the site unusable at times.
    I get this frequently on iPad Safari, never on iPhone safari, and never on Mac Safari. A reset fixes it for a few hours. An Apple bug I would guess, not Vanilla's fault. But vanilla should work around it.
    Yes for me it's far worse on iPad than iPhone for some reason. Not that it's great on iPhone. Browser doesn't make a difference.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Mortimer said:

    isam said:

    @Cyclefree my feeling is nowhere will be able to open before Christmas, at least not indoors. I dropped a card round my mates earlier, he said he was going to book up a pub for the 5th, and I couldn’t help feeling he was wasting his time

    Here in the SW we went from Tier 1 to Lockdown. I was (and still am) very disappointed about this. Especially as the data now shows that the tiered restrictions worked, and allowed e.g. my business to function better.

    The panicked response to modelling must stop. I'm honestly not sure Boris survives extending the lockdown as leader; I'm pretty sure he doesn't survive a third.
    I’m completely apolitical about this now. I’d welcome Steve Baker as PM if I thought he could manage this competently!
    I don’t want any Tories anywhere near the levers of power. One of the people bullied by Patel attempted suicide and got a payout. Those MPs defending a person who does that to her staff (and some posters on here) should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves.

  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited November 2020

    Mortimer said:

    isam said:

    @Cyclefree my feeling is nowhere will be able to open before Christmas, at least not indoors. I dropped a card round my mates earlier, he said he was going to book up a pub for the 5th, and I couldn’t help feeling he was wasting his time

    Here in the SW we went from Tier 1 to Lockdown. I was (and still am) very disappointed about this. Especially as the data now shows that the tiered restrictions worked, and allowed e.g. my business to function better.

    The panicked response to modelling must stop. I'm honestly not sure Boris survives extending the lockdown as leader; I'm pretty sure he doesn't survive a third.
    I’m completely apolitical about this now. I’d welcome Steve Baker as PM if I thought he could manage this competently!
    Anyone would be better than Johnson. At least they'd probably have a plan and stick with it. Whether it prioritised businesses or health. But everyone would have some idea of where they stand and be able to try and plan accordingly. Not be forever led up the garden path by lies or vacillation.

    It's basically shocking how little advance notice they seem to be able to grant before implementing things at the moment. Constantly claiming to be taking decisions based on the "latest" data whilst never seemingly able to predict trends more than a day in advance. And despite data always reflecting actions taken between 2 weeks and a month previously.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620

    Mortimer said:

    isam said:

    @Cyclefree my feeling is nowhere will be able to open before Christmas, at least not indoors. I dropped a card round my mates earlier, he said he was going to book up a pub for the 5th, and I couldn’t help feeling he was wasting his time

    Here in the SW we went from Tier 1 to Lockdown. I was (and still am) very disappointed about this. Especially as the data now shows that the tiered restrictions worked, and allowed e.g. my business to function better.

    The panicked response to modelling must stop. I'm honestly not sure Boris survives extending the lockdown as leader; I'm pretty sure he doesn't survive a third.
    Yet Brixham has become a SW horror story. Down to a few hospitality centres who were not playing by the rules.

    Need to start issuing banning orders as a publican for 5 years for breach of Covid regs. Then see how many will allow lock-ins.
    Banning publicans? Clearly you are a card-carrying fanboy of Boris - the man England’s pubs fear.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    edited November 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    Mortimer said:

    isam said:

    @Cyclefree my feeling is nowhere will be able to open before Christmas, at least not indoors. I dropped a card round my mates earlier, he said he was going to book up a pub for the 5th, and I couldn’t help feeling he was wasting his time

    Here in the SW we went from Tier 1 to Lockdown. I was (and still am) very disappointed about this. Especially as the data now shows that the tiered restrictions worked, and allowed e.g. my business to function better.

    The panicked response to modelling must stop. I'm honestly not sure Boris survives extending the lockdown as leader; I'm pretty sure he doesn't survive a third.
    I’m completely apolitical about this now. I’d welcome Steve Baker as PM if I thought he could manage this competently!
    I don’t want any Tories anywhere near the levers of power. One of the people bullied by Patel attempted suicide and got a payout. Those MPs defending a person who does that to her staff (and some posters on here) should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves.

    Oh I agree, Boris’ cabinet are to a man/woman dire. I’m simply saying that it’s got so bad that I’d welcome even the likes of Baker as he simply cannot be worse than the incompetent clowns we have in charge currently.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2020
  • BBC News - Sunak to reform anti-Northern spending bias
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55022162
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Cyclefree said:

    Apologies for all the swearing. But my daughter is going to be suicidal if this carries on without any support. And my son will lose his job too.

    Who gives a flying fuck about Xmas in such circumstances.

    I am very sympathetic. When all this is over, we need music, performing arts, sport, food, drink and travel to still be there.

    I am grounded until 1 Dec, and not supposed to go beyond the front gate until then. As someone who worked right through, this is a bit new to me. We have ordered in some deliveries from our local pub, partly to support its sideline as a farm shop distributor. Nice artisan products, at a price.

    Mrs Foxy's biggest fear is losing her taste and smell permanently, more than mortality. What is life worth without epicurean delight?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    BBC News - Sunak to reform anti-Northern spending bias
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55022162

    A cautious welcome. This is long overdue.
    Nevertheless, remain concerned this will apply to Northern places with Tory Mps/councils.
    As a generous, charitable soul I will give the benefit for now.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Has @ HYUFD been around in the last few days? Radio silence since Cummings went?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Apologies for all the swearing. But my daughter is going to be suicidal if this carries on without any support. And my son will lose his job too.

    Who gives a flying fuck about Xmas in such circumstances.

    I am very sympathetic. When all this is over, we need music, performing arts, sport, food, drink and travel to still be there.

    I am grounded until 1 Dec, and not supposed to go beyond the front gate until then. As someone who worked right through, this is a bit new to me. We have ordered in some deliveries from our local pub, partly to support its sideline as a farm shop distributor. Nice artisan products, at a price.

    Mrs Foxy's biggest fear is losing her taste and smell permanently, more than mortality. What is life worth without epicurean delight?
    If I thought that my death would help my children I would walk into the sea tomorrow with stones round my neck. They’d at least inherit some money to see them through, some happy memories I hope and a load of PB headers to read. And don’t think I haven’t thought about it and worked out exactly the spot I’d do it from.

    I find it increasingly hard to watch all three of them struggle, knowing how little I can do.

    It brings back all the memories of what it was like when my son was seriously ill and there was nothing I could do then and little hope of it getting any better. They were the darkest of times. I simply could not live through that again.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Mortimer said:

    isam said:

    @Cyclefree my feeling is nowhere will be able to open before Christmas, at least not indoors. I dropped a card round my mates earlier, he said he was going to book up a pub for the 5th, and I couldn’t help feeling he was wasting his time

    Here in the SW we went from Tier 1 to Lockdown. I was (and still am) very disappointed about this. Especially as the data now shows that the tiered restrictions worked, and allowed e.g. my business to function better.

    The panicked response to modelling must stop. I'm honestly not sure Boris survives extending the lockdown as leader; I'm pretty sure he doesn't survive a third.
    Yet Brixham has become a SW horror story. Down to a few hospitality centres who were not playing by the rules.

    Need to start issuing banning orders as a publican for 5 years for breach of Covid regs. Then see how many will allow lock-ins.
    Banning publicans? Clearly you are a card-carrying fanboy of Boris - the man England’s pubs fear.
    I'd certainly ban any publican who can't see that those who have been doing lock-ins - and there have been plnty if stories are to be believed - are undermining the efforts of everybody else playing by the rules. 5 years was quite charitable. I personally don't see why they should ever be fit to run licensed premises ever again.
  • StonchStonch Posts: 42
    edited November 2020
    I haven't commented on here for years, but have been reading most days (since 2004, believe it or not). I'm a pub landlord and have been since 2010. I now own a pub in Sussex. I've read the articles and comments Cyclefree has written about her daughter's situation and have a lot of sympathy, and can obviously empathise directly.

    Nevertheless I think hospitality should stay closed throughout the rest of winter, until the vaccination programme has at least protected the most vulnerable. Re-opening for a period only to be locked down again won't help businesses, and - this time - actually could cost lives.

    The 10pm closing thing was a total disaster - counterproductive, in fact - but otherwise the government has been as helpful to hospitality as it could be, in the circumstances.

    The grants are stingy this time round, and councils have made them quite tricky to claim (though there was apparently a lot of fraud last time). Perhaps they should be increased.

    What is unforgivable, as others have commented, is government allowing the fantasy to continue that things can really re-open on the 3rd with the old tier system rules in place.

    My pub is a former Tier 1 area, and something of a tourist hotspot, and was continually fully booked throughout the period since the new restrictions (end of Sept) came in. I have no doubt from the pointless booking requests I am getting now for December that the same would happen again. However there's just no way we're really returning to those rules, and I'd prefer it if government just kept us all closed and increased the grants a bit.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Apologies for all the swearing. But my daughter is going to be suicidal if this carries on without any support. And my son will lose his job too.

    Who gives a flying fuck about Xmas in such circumstances.

    I am very sympathetic. When all this is over, we need music, performing arts, sport, food, drink and travel to still be there.

    I am grounded until 1 Dec, and not supposed to go beyond the front gate until then. As someone who worked right through, this is a bit new to me. We have ordered in some deliveries from our local pub, partly to support its sideline as a farm shop distributor. Nice artisan products, at a price.

    Mrs Foxy's biggest fear is losing her taste and smell permanently, more than mortality. What is life worth without epicurean delight?
    If I thought that my death would help my children I would walk into the sea tomorrow with stones round my neck. They’d at least inherit some money to see them through, some happy memories I hope and a load of PB headers to read. And don’t think I haven’t thought about it and worked out exactly the spot I’d do it from.

    I find it increasingly hard to watch all three of them struggle, knowing how little I can do.

    It brings back all the memories of what it was like when my son was seriously ill and there was nothing I could do then and little hope of it getting any better. They were the darkest of times. I simply could not live through that again.
    Beware of depression and irrational thoughts. If suicide seems rational, something is wrong and you should seek professional help. There will be a vaccine, several vaccines, next year. The country will get through this, and so will the hospitality sector.
    I concur. Look after yourself @Cyclefree . Your children wouldn't want it any other way.
  • dixiedean said:

    BBC News - Sunak to reform anti-Northern spending bias
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55022162

    A cautious welcome. This is long overdue.
    Nevertheless, remain concerned this will apply to Northern places with Tory Mps/councils.
    As a generous, charitable soul I will give the benefit for now.
    Rather like the Towns Fund was rigged to shovel funds into Conservative seats.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    dixiedean said:

    BBC News - Sunak to reform anti-Northern spending bias
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55022162

    A cautious welcome. This is long overdue.
    Nevertheless, remain concerned this will apply to Northern places with Tory Mps/councils.
    As a generous, charitable soul I will give the benefit for now.
    Rather like the Towns Fund was rigged to shovel funds into Conservative seats.
    As I said. I am generous and charitable to a fault :smile:
    It has not escaped my attention, however, that when the second wave emerged in Greater Manchester, it was special pleading from Tory Mps for their constituencies that prevented any co-ordinated action and aided the spread of the virus.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,940
    edited November 2020
    Deleted.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Apologies for all the swearing. But my daughter is going to be suicidal if this carries on without any support. And my son will lose his job too.

    Who gives a flying fuck about Xmas in such circumstances.

    I am very sympathetic. When all this is over, we need music, performing arts, sport, food, drink and travel to still be there.

    I am grounded until 1 Dec, and not supposed to go beyond the front gate until then. As someone who worked right through, this is a bit new to me. We have ordered in some deliveries from our local pub, partly to support its sideline as a farm shop distributor. Nice artisan products, at a price.

    Mrs Foxy's biggest fear is losing her taste and smell permanently, more than mortality. What is life worth without epicurean delight?
    If I thought that my death would help my children I would walk into the sea tomorrow with stones round my neck. They’d at least inherit some money to see them through, some happy memories I hope and a load of PB headers to read. And don’t think I haven’t thought about it and worked out exactly the spot I’d do it from.

    I find it increasingly hard to watch all three of them struggle, knowing how little I can do.

    It brings back all the memories of what it was like when my son was seriously ill and there was nothing I could do then and little hope of it getting any better. They were the darkest of times. I simply could not live through that again.
    If I thought my death would help my children, I'd disinherit them. The last thing I want to do is give them a financial incentive to bump me off.
    That explains why the British inheritance tax system is designed the way it is. You can give your children a gift, if you survive for the next 7 years it's tax free, but if you fall victim to a bizarre Christmas Pudding choking incident they have to pay inheritance tax on it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Apologies for all the swearing. But my daughter is going to be suicidal if this carries on without any support. And my son will lose his job too.

    Who gives a flying fuck about Xmas in such circumstances.

    I am very sympathetic. When all this is over, we need music, performing arts, sport, food, drink and travel to still be there.

    I am grounded until 1 Dec, and not supposed to go beyond the front gate until then. As someone who worked right through, this is a bit new to me. We have ordered in some deliveries from our local pub, partly to support its sideline as a farm shop distributor. Nice artisan products, at a price.

    Mrs Foxy's biggest fear is losing her taste and smell permanently, more than mortality. What is life worth without epicurean delight?
    If I thought that my death would help my children I would walk into the sea tomorrow with stones round my neck. They’d at least inherit some money to see them through, some happy memories I hope and a load of PB headers to read. And don’t think I haven’t thought about it and worked out exactly the spot I’d do it from.

    I find it increasingly hard to watch all three of them struggle, knowing how little I can do.

    It brings back all the memories of what it was like when my son was seriously ill and there was nothing I could do then and little hope of it getting any better. They were the darkest of times. I simply could not live through that again.
    Yes, I would do anything for my boys too.

    I have seen the effect of suicide on families too many times. Far from putting an end to suffering, it is the beginning of much more. Lives are blighted that way much more than financially. The guilt is very difficult to bear.

    These miserable months will pass.Take care.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    alex_ said:

    Rudi Guiliani self isolating after son gets Covid.

    Oh no how will Trump find anyone as good to fight his court cases now.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678

    I just want "the rule of 6" back. We haven't had it since the 18th September in the North East.

    Was that Star Trek Series 2 Ep, 4?
    I'm afraid not:

    https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Who_Mourns_for_Adonais?_(episode)
  • dixiedean said:

    Has @ HYUFD been around in the last few days? Radio silence since Cummings went?

    His militaristic fantasies and abhorrent attacks on democracy have been mercifully absent.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    People are ineligible for ages...
This discussion has been closed.