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The best Georgia run-off bet – the Democrats to take both Senate seats at a 23.3% chance – political

SystemSystem Posts: 11,005
edited November 2020 in General
imageThe best Georgia run-off bet – the Democrats to take both Senate seats at a 23.3% chance – politicalbetting.com

Above is the market from the Smarkets exchange on the big outstanding issue from the White House election fifteen days ago. This is on whether the Democrats can win the Georgia run-offs which would give them control of the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Read the full story here

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Comments

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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,050
    FPT:
    The comments on Twitter under this Sainsbury's ad - that has the temerity to show a black family celebrating Christmas - are a sight to behold. I only became aware of it as it was filmed in a house a couple of streets down from me. As others have noted, people had less of a problem with the Asda ad which portrayed a family of carrots.

    https://twitter.com/sainsburys/status/1327506558322880514?s=20
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    FPT:
    The comments on Twitter under this Sainsbury's ad - that has the temerity to show a black family celebrating Christmas - are a sight to behold. I only became aware of it as it was filmed in a house a couple of streets down from me. As others have noted, people had less of a problem with the Asda ad which portrayed a family of carrots.

    https://twitter.com/sainsburys/status/1327506558322880514?s=20

    Holy fck. "Another reason to boycott sainsburys." And people think the idea there is racism in this country is neo-marxist gibberish cooked up by BLM.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,380
    edited November 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    FPT:
    The comments on Twitter under this Sainsbury's ad - that has the temerity to show a black family celebrating Christmas - are a sight to behold. I only became aware of it as it was filmed in a house a couple of streets down from me. As others have noted, people had less of a problem with the Asda ad which portrayed a family of carrots.

    https://twitter.com/sainsburys/status/1327506558322880514?s=20

    Holy fck. "Another reason to boycott sainsburys." And people think the idea there is racism in this country is neo-marxist gibberish cooked up by BLM.
    It's shocking that featuring a black family in ad ad even raises comment, let along the comments seen. Still, I think this will work out well for Sainsburys, the reaction may well become a story and more people will see the ad. I'd have never seen this if it wasn't for @OnlyLivingBoy posting it, which only happened due to the negative reactions.

    BTW, I did wonder what the other 'reasons' are to boycott Sainsburys, but Google reveals they're apparently unbearably woke. I won't post links. I don't normally let cultur wars determine my shopping habits, should I?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,042
    IshmaelZ said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    FPT:
    The comments on Twitter under this Sainsbury's ad - that has the temerity to show a black family celebrating Christmas - are a sight to behold. I only became aware of it as it was filmed in a house a couple of streets down from me. As others have noted, people had less of a problem with the Asda ad which portrayed a family of carrots.

    https://twitter.com/sainsburys/status/1327506558322880514?s=20

    Holy fck. "Another reason to boycott sainsburys." And people think the idea there is racism in this country is neo-marxist gibberish cooked up by BLM.
    Indeed, however the PB Enoch Powell justifiers will be along later to explain the error of Sainsbury's ways. I had a really nice debate with one yesterday.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,584
    edited November 2020
    [deleted earlier comments - something went wrong with the levels, but I was replying to @Mexicanpete ]
    They do have other families, apparently, in different versions of the ad - haven't seen them though - but if that is true it in itself makes a nonsense of a lot of the comments.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,443
    O/T

    Is there such a political philosophy as "national libertarianism"?
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,288
    Doesn't it depend on what Donald does?

    If he is still squatting on January 5th 2021, the Dems have a chance of taking both seats. Otherwise it's one each at best, but probably 2-0 to the GoP.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,584
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Is there such a political philosophy as "national libertarianism"?

    One of us seems to be the combination of a libertarian and a supporter of Scottish independence - but that woiuld make hin a libertarian independista, not a nationalist in the general sense of the term.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,234
    After last night's excitement, current Betfair prices:-

    Biden 1.05
    Democrats 1.05
    Biden PV 1.03
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
    Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.06
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.07
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.07
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.06
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.02

    AZ Dem 1.05
    GA Dem 1.07
    MI Dem 1.06
    NV Dem 1.04
    PA Dem 1.05
    WI Dem 1.05
  • Options
    StarryStarry Posts: 105
    Susan Collins is much closer to Biden than Trump. Technically Republican but won't be a slave to the Right
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,288
    Philip_Thompson said:

    I saw the Sainsbury's ad last night and thought it was one of the best Christmas ads I'd seen this year.

    Didn't even think about skin colour or notice the fact they were black. That wasn't the relevant bit to me, for me it was a family having a 2020 Christmas talking about gravy etc - that some people see that and get offended is absolutely beyond me.

    Same here but now it's been pointed out I'll be sure to do my next weekly shopping lift at Sainsbury's.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,288
    Starry said:

    Susan Collins is much closer to Biden than Trump. Technically Republican but won't be a slave to the Right

    Capitulated over Kavanaugh though, didn't she? And Barrett.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    IshmaelZ said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    FPT:
    The comments on Twitter under this Sainsbury's ad - that has the temerity to show a black family celebrating Christmas - are a sight to behold. I only became aware of it as it was filmed in a house a couple of streets down from me. As others have noted, people had less of a problem with the Asda ad which portrayed a family of carrots.

    https://twitter.com/sainsburys/status/1327506558322880514?s=20

    Holy fck. "Another reason to boycott sainsburys." And people think the idea there is racism in this country is neo-marxist gibberish cooked up by BLM.
    One positive in this is that the number of likes for the racist twitter responses is very low and the likes for tweets supporting the ad are many times higher.

    I suspect that hard core racists are actually a very small minority in this country; most people prefer a live and let live approach and have friends and colleagues from a mix of ethnicities.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,097
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I saw the Sainsbury's ad last night and thought it was one of the best Christmas ads I'd seen this year.

    Didn't even think about skin colour or notice the fact they were black. That wasn't the relevant bit to me, for me it was a family having a 2020 Christmas talking about gravy etc - that some people see that and get offended is absolutely beyond me.

    Same here but now it's been pointed out I'll be sure to do my next weekly shopping lift at Sainsbury's.
    They have delivery slots, which is more than can be said for some of the others!
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,954
    Father, forgive them, for they know not what they do, specially when it comes to this painting lark.

    https://twitter.com/DigbyWhat/status/1328705089347989504?s=20

  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Doesn't it depend on what Donald does?

    If he is still squatting on January 5th 2021, the Dems have a chance of taking both seats. Otherwise it's one each at best, but probably 2-0 to the GoP.

    I don't see the logic for one each. How many people are going to vote for one Rep and not the other or one Dem and not the other?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    Philip_Thompson said:

    I saw the Sainsbury's ad last night and thought it was one of the best Christmas ads I'd seen this year.

    Didn't even think about skin colour or notice the fact they were black. That wasn't the relevant bit to me, for me it was a family having a 2020 Christmas talking about gravy etc - that some people see that and get offended is absolutely beyond me.

    Apparently black people having the temerity to celebrate Christmas is a scandal. 🤷‍♂️
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    Benpointer said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    FPT:
    The comments on Twitter under this Sainsbury's ad - that has the temerity to show a black family celebrating Christmas - are a sight to behold. I only became aware of it as it was filmed in a house a couple of streets down from me. As others have noted, people had less of a problem with the Asda ad which portrayed a family of carrots.

    https://twitter.com/sainsburys/status/1327506558322880514?s=20

    Holy fck. "Another reason to boycott sainsburys." And people think the idea there is racism in this country is neo-marxist gibberish cooked up by BLM.
    One positive in this is that the number of likes for the racist twitter responses is very low and the likes for tweets supporting the ad are many times higher.

    I suspect that hard core racists are actually a very small minority in this country; most people prefer a live and let live approach and have friends and colleagues from a mix of ethnicities.

    Spot on. It's a nice advert.

    Far fewer people watch live ads now (unless they're watching live TV per chance) so it's a social media battle. Sainsbury's will be well aware this will be widely shared, for a variety of reasons, and that will do them very nicely.

    I've already ordered my Christmas food from M&S, same as I do every year, as I've never found anywhere as good - their stuff is sublime.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,584
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Father, forgive them, for they know not what they do, specially when it comes to this painting lark.

    https://twitter.com/DigbyWhat/status/1328705089347989504?s=20

    One of the comments below: "I'm guessing they don't know that the Roman soldier who pierced Christ's became one of first Saints, and so they're basically calling Pelosi holy."
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    We've booked our Christmas delivery slot from a local butcher. Never used them prior to the pandemic but at the height of the pandemic when the supermarkets were struggling to give delivery slots started doing their own deliveries as they were struggling with few people going to the market in town. We've had deliveries from them a few times since and the quality has been absolutely fantastic so when they offered a Christmas slot it was an easy decision to make.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    edited November 2020
    Casino_Royale said:

    Spot on. It's a nice advert.

    Far fewer people watch live ads now (unless they're watching live TV per chance) so it's a social media battle. Sainsbury's will be well aware this will be widely shared, for a variety of reasons, and that will do them very nicely.

    I've already ordered my Christmas food from M&S, same as I do every year, as I've never found anywhere as good - their stuff is sublime.

    We do ours with Waitrose every year and get the bird from direct from a farm. We tried M&S a couple of years ago and it wasn't as good so we switched back to Waitrose. Maybe it was a bad year.

    This year we've gone for a Turkey, the farm was very glad for the business.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,954
    So there wasn't necessarily a PPE shortage, just a shortage at the 'right' price.

    https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/1328976765964972032?s=20
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2020
    I don't think I have heard the media talk about Poland at all, but it is clearly totally out of control there.

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1329003627810320384?s=19
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,079
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Father, forgive them, for they know not what they do, specially when it comes to this painting lark.

    https://twitter.com/DigbyWhat/status/1328705089347989504?s=20

    That is a rather flattering depiction of the Trump bod.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1328914932407164928?s=19
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    No wonder he got fired.....

    https://twitter.com/C_C_Krebs/status/1328920346603499520?s=20
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,571
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Is there such a political philosophy as "national libertarianism"?

    Don't see why not as many so called Libertarians seem to have their own definition as what being a Libertarian is, which normally excludes the liberty to do things they don't like.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,123
    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Spot on. It's a nice advert.

    Far fewer people watch live ads now (unless they're watching live TV per chance) so it's a social media battle. Sainsbury's will be well aware this will be widely shared, for a variety of reasons, and that will do them very nicely.

    I've already ordered my Christmas food from M&S, same as I do every year, as I've never found anywhere as good - their stuff is sublime.

    We do ours with Waitrose every year and get the bird from direct from a farm. We tried M&S a couple of years ago and it wasn't as good so we switched back to Waitrose. Maybe it was a bad year.

    This year we've gone for a Turkey, the farm was very glad for the business.
    Apparently there is going to be a shortage of UK turkey this year because 5m (seriously!) Brits normally go abroad for Christmas and nearly all will be here instead. We are having to make special arrangements to get enough turkey pluckers in from abroad but we will probably have to import some turkeys as well.

    Most years we go around on Christmas eve and buy a bronzed turkey once the price has collapsed. That might be a bit riskier this year.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,123
    On the advert, jeez, what is wrong with some people? Not sure what its got to do with Sainsbury's or their products but its a nice family scene which is what Christmas is all about.
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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    I don't particularly like Christmas or bank "holidays" as they are really enforced down time. Yeah gods, there is so much to do and take pleasure in doing it. And so little time.

    Racism: let us question ourselves about it and resolve to discourage it as it happens around us
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,954
    kinabalu said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Father, forgive them, for they know not what they do, specially when it comes to this painting lark.

    https://twitter.com/DigbyWhat/status/1328705089347989504?s=20

    That is a rather flattering depiction of the Trump bod.
    Big hands...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2020
    Turkey for Christmas lunch...the pineapple on pizza of Christmas lunches.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Selebian said:

    BTW, I did wonder what the other 'reasons' are to boycott Sainsburys, but Google reveals they're apparently unbearably woke. I won't post links. I don't normally let cultur wars determine my shopping habits, should I?

    I have no idea what this "woke" business is all about, but I do not care. I shop at Sainsburys more than any other store.... because I can walk to it in a few minutes ;)
  • Options
    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Toms said:

    I don't particularly like Christmas or bank "holidays" as they are really enforced down time. Yeah gods, there is so much to do and take pleasure in doing it. And so little time.

    Racism: let us question ourselves about it and resolve to discourage it as it happens around us

    Wore, send me on a cruise.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1328914932407164928?s=19

    Is that fake news? According to worldometers there have been a total of 818 Covid deaths in El Paso (pop 720k).

    So that's 1,136 deaths per million* high but by no means the highest in the US.

    (*or 113 if you're Toby Young)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Turkey for Christmas lunch...the pineapple on pizza of Christmas lunches.

    I had never thought about having pineapple pizza instead of turkey for Christmas lunch... hmmm...
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2020
    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1328914932407164928?s=19

    Is that fake news? According to worldometers there have been a total of 818 Covid deaths in El Paso (pop 720k).

    So that's 1,136 deaths per million* high but by no means the highest in the US.

    (*or 113 if you're Toby Young)
    I would be surprised as BNO is a legit source. Here is BBC report about how they are struggling.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-54966876
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,123
    CarlottaVance said:

    No wonder he got fired.....

    https://twitter.com/C_C_Krebs/status/1328920346603499520?s=20

    Biden should reappoint him. He's proven that he is the right man for the job.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1328914932407164928?s=19

    Is that fake news? According to worldometers there have been a total of 818 Covid deaths in El Paso (pop 720k).

    So that's 1,136 deaths per million* high but by no means the highest in the US.

    (*or 113 if you're Toby Young)
    I would be surprised as BNO is a legit source. Here is BBC report about how they are struggling.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-54966876
    Yep, fair enough. Shocking.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Benpointer said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Doesn't it depend on what Donald does?

    If he is still squatting on January 5th 2021, the Dems have a chance of taking both seats. Otherwise it's one each at best, but probably 2-0 to the GoP.

    I don't see the logic for one each. How many people are going to vote for one Rep and not the other or one Dem and not the other?
    USA swing voters have a love affair with "bi-partisanship"
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    edited November 2020
    Finished "The Crown". Enjoyable, superior soap opera, but at times drifted from "dramatic licence" into "Fake News". For example, suggesting that Thatcher was opposed to sanctions on South Africa because her son had business interests there (out by a decade, after Thatcher had left office) or that she was in favour of apartheid and Mandela against sanctions (he urged her to not lift them too quickly to maintain pressure on the regime). The most ludicrous bit was the suggestion that Thatcher asked the queen to dissolve parliament so she could hang on during the leadership challenge. The Charles and Diana bits are very soapy and Princess Margaret played for tragedy - ignoring the "good works" she did - for example with AIDS, long before Diana showed up with the cameras. It wasn't an accident that Margaret was the Royal Patron of The Lighthouse and the Terrence Higgins Trust. Or that the queen would be more aware that one of her close friends was "a friend of Dorothy" than she was.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    Alistair said:

    Benpointer said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Doesn't it depend on what Donald does?

    If he is still squatting on January 5th 2021, the Dems have a chance of taking both seats. Otherwise it's one each at best, but probably 2-0 to the GoP.

    I don't see the logic for one each. How many people are going to vote for one Rep and not the other or one Dem and not the other?
    USA swing voters have a love affair with "bi-partisanship"
    Yebbut... how do they stop themselves cancelling each other out?
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,234
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Spot on. It's a nice advert.

    Far fewer people watch live ads now (unless they're watching live TV per chance) so it's a social media battle. Sainsbury's will be well aware this will be widely shared, for a variety of reasons, and that will do them very nicely.

    I've already ordered my Christmas food from M&S, same as I do every year, as I've never found anywhere as good - their stuff is sublime.

    We do ours with Waitrose every year and get the bird from direct from a farm. We tried M&S a couple of years ago and it wasn't as good so we switched back to Waitrose. Maybe it was a bad year.

    This year we've gone for a Turkey, the farm was very glad for the business.
    Apparently there is going to be a shortage of UK turkey this year because 5m (seriously!) Brits normally go abroad for Christmas and nearly all will be here instead. We are having to make special arrangements to get enough turkey pluckers in from abroad but we will probably have to import some turkeys as well.

    Most years we go around on Christmas eve and buy a bronzed turkey once the price has collapsed. That might be a bit riskier this year.
    Pro tip: don't buy a turkey; buy a turkey crown.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    CarlottaVance said:

    Finished "The Crown". Enjoyable, superior soap opera, but at times drifted from "dramatic licence" into "Fake News". For example, suggesting that Thatcher was opposed to sanctions on South Africa because her son had business interests there (out by a decade, after Thatcher had left office) or that she was in favour of apartheid and Mandela against sanctions (he urged her to not lift them too quickly to maintain pressure on the regime). The most ludicrous bit was the suggestion that Thatcher asked the queen to dissolve parliament so she could hang on during the leadership challenge. The Charles and Diana bits are very soapy and Princess Margaret played for tragedy - ignoring the "good works" she did - for example with AIDS, long before Diana showed up with the cameras. It wasn't an accident that Margaret was the Royal Patron of The Lighthouse and the Terrence Higgins Trust.

    Spoiler alert please!

    Thatcher leaves office??
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    CarlottaVance said:

    Finished "The Crown". Enjoyable, superior soap opera, but at times drifted from "dramatic licence" into "Fake News". For example, suggesting that Thatcher was opposed to sanctions on South Africa because her son had business interests there (out by a decade, after Thatcher had left office) or that she was in favour of apartheid and Mandela against sanctions (he urged her to not lift them too quickly to maintain pressure on the regime). The most ludicrous bit was the suggestion that Thatcher asked the queen to dissolve parliament so she could hang on during the leadership challenge. The Charles and Diana bits are very soapy and Princess Margaret played for tragedy - ignoring the "good works" she did - for example with AIDS, long before Diana showed up with the cameras. It wasn't an accident that Margaret was the Royal Patron of The Lighthouse and the Terrence Higgins Trust. Or that the queen would be more aware that one of her close friends was "a friend of Dorothy" than she was.

    Did the fake news add to the excitement / enjoyment or did it feel like a writer hatred of Thatcher taking the opportunity to blackened her name?
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,234
    edited November 2020
    CarlottaVance said:

    Finished "The Crown". Enjoyable, superior soap opera, but at times drifted from "dramatic licence" into "Fake News". For example, suggesting that Thatcher was opposed to sanctions on South Africa because her son had business interests there (out by a decade, after Thatcher had left office) or that she was in favour of apartheid and Mandela against sanctions (he urged her to not lift them too quickly to maintain pressure on the regime). The most ludicrous bit was the suggestion that Thatcher asked the queen to dissolve parliament so she could hang on during the leadership challenge. The Charles and Diana bits are very soapy and Princess Margaret played for tragedy - ignoring the "good works" she did - for example with AIDS, long before Diana showed up with the cameras. It wasn't an accident that Margaret was the Royal Patron of The Lighthouse and the Terrence Higgins Trust. Or that the queen would be more aware that one of her close friends was "a friend of Dorothy" than she was.

    I'm a series behind but based on s4 reports and s3's treatment of the Blunt exposure, I was able to accurately estimate the writer's age as in his late 50s. My rationale is that for the earlier decades, he relied on historical research but from the 1980s onwards is remembering the news reports he watched at the time.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,800
    Just looking at the South Korea stats, as the assumption is they smashed it and are continuing to do so. 73% rise in cases to over 1500 cases last week. Worth keeping an eye on - they've obviously done fantastically with tracing and suppressing some huge point outbreaks, but spread of cases now showing a more endemic pattern. It will be interesting to follow the Far East in the coming weeks to see if they can successfully push back a winter wave too.

    Obviously getting to November before cases escalate is already a win, but I think we might see something of an outbreak and things being closed soon.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,123
    I once did a case for a Brussels Sprouts grower whose sprayer had let him down so that his crop was not ready for the last 2 weeks in December. He told me that they sold 90% of their entire output for the year in those 2 weeks. By January you were pretty much feeding pigs with them.

    The logistics of getting crops like that to market at exactly the right time, regardless of whether it was a warm or cold, wet or dry winter were genuinely fascinating (unlike the case which was pretty straightforward). Will we be short of Brussel Sprouts this year? My brother, for one, would be delighted.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I'm reminded that in 2012 Democrats were trying to focus group a strong message on the Romney/Ryan plan to privatise Medicare.

    Focus groups didn't believe them even when it was pointed out in the GOP platform.

    Voters simply wouldn't believe that a politician would attempt it.
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    kamskikamski Posts: 4,227
    Alistair said:

    Benpointer said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Doesn't it depend on what Donald does?

    If he is still squatting on January 5th 2021, the Dems have a chance of taking both seats. Otherwise it's one each at best, but probably 2-0 to the GoP.

    I don't see the logic for one each. How many people are going to vote for one Rep and not the other or one Dem and not the other?
    USA swing voters have a love affair with "bi-partisanship"
    The last time there were 2 senate races in the same state was Minnesota 2018. Dems won both races BUT
    one was

    Klobuchar 60.3% vs Newberger 36.2% (Dem won by 24.1%)
    the other went
    Smith 53.0% vs Housley 42.4% (Dem won by 10.6%)

    Now there are no doubt good reasons why there was such a big difference in those races, and good reasons why there won't be such a big difference in Georgia, but in a close race (which looks likely in Georgia), it could easily go one each.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Pro_Rata said:

    Just looking at the South Korea stats, as the assumption is they smashed it and are continuing to do so. 73% rise in cases to over 1500 cases last week. Worth keeping an eye on - they've obviously done fantastically with tracing and suppressing some huge point outbreaks, but spread of cases now showing a more endemic pattern. It will be interesting to follow the Far East in the coming weeks to see if they can successfully push back a winter wave too.

    Obviously getting to November before cases escalate is already a win, but I think we might see something of an outbreak and things being closed soon.

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1328988925017411584?s=19
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    Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    1. portray people of colour in an advert
    2. wait for idiots to explode in outrage on social media
    3. watch all the free publicity pour in

    This pattern is now so well known, I wouldn't be surprised if the marketing folks working for Sainsbury's played into it. And I have mixed feelings about that. I don't think Sainsbury's are doing anything wrong, but I can't help feeling a slightly cynical twist of mind at it. Like they're somehow benefiting from racism, in a weird, indirect, blameless, but cynical way.

    The one thing it does confirm for me, though, is that social media is a sewer and we're better off spending minimal time on there.

    Merry Christmas everyone.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited November 2020
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    FPT:
    The comments on Twitter under this Sainsbury's ad - that has the temerity to show a black family celebrating Christmas - are a sight to behold. I only became aware of it as it was filmed in a house a couple of streets down from me. As others have noted, people had less of a problem with the Asda ad which portrayed a family of carrots.

    https://twitter.com/sainsburys/status/1327506558322880514?s=20

    One of my first commercials was in 1987 for BT. It involved two adults a pink poodle and a ten year old boy jiving their way around a BT phone shop. I cast a black boy who was a brilliant dancer and very funny. The creatives took the casting tape back to the agency and the account people decided the client might not be happy casting a black boy. All hell broke loose and they agreed to show the tape to BT and have an alternative just in case. BT had no problem at all and as expected the boy was brilliant (as was the ad!)

    Just shows how things have moved on in 30 odd years and thank God for it.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Benpointer said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Finished "The Crown". Enjoyable, superior soap opera, but at times drifted from "dramatic licence" into "Fake News". For example, suggesting that Thatcher was opposed to sanctions on South Africa because her son had business interests there (out by a decade, after Thatcher had left office) or that she was in favour of apartheid and Mandela against sanctions (he urged her to not lift them too quickly to maintain pressure on the regime). The most ludicrous bit was the suggestion that Thatcher asked the queen to dissolve parliament so she could hang on during the leadership challenge. The Charles and Diana bits are very soapy and Princess Margaret played for tragedy - ignoring the "good works" she did - for example with AIDS, long before Diana showed up with the cameras. It wasn't an accident that Margaret was the Royal Patron of The Lighthouse and the Terrence Higgins Trust.

    Spoiler alert please!

    Thatcher leaves office??
    Nobody tell @justin124 - he was acting as if Thatcher was still PM and John Carlisle (RIP) was still an MP last night.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,288
    kamski said:

    Alistair said:

    Benpointer said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Doesn't it depend on what Donald does?

    If he is still squatting on January 5th 2021, the Dems have a chance of taking both seats. Otherwise it's one each at best, but probably 2-0 to the GoP.

    I don't see the logic for one each. How many people are going to vote for one Rep and not the other or one Dem and not the other?
    USA swing voters have a love affair with "bi-partisanship"
    The last time there were 2 senate races in the same state was Minnesota 2018. Dems won both races BUT
    one was

    Klobuchar 60.3% vs Newberger 36.2% (Dem won by 24.1%)
    the other went
    Smith 53.0% vs Housley 42.4% (Dem won by 10.6%)

    Now there are no doubt good reasons why there was such a big difference in those races, and good reasons why there won't be such a big difference in Georgia, but in a close race (which looks likely in Georgia), it could easily go one each.
    Yes, that's the way I understand it. I believe Warnock has a strong personal following, so I guess he might be the one to get through if it is one each.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Finished "The Crown". Enjoyable, superior soap opera, but at times drifted from "dramatic licence" into "Fake News". For example, suggesting that Thatcher was opposed to sanctions on South Africa because her son had business interests there (out by a decade, after Thatcher had left office) or that she was in favour of apartheid and Mandela against sanctions (he urged her to not lift them too quickly to maintain pressure on the regime). The most ludicrous bit was the suggestion that Thatcher asked the queen to dissolve parliament so she could hang on during the leadership challenge. The Charles and Diana bits are very soapy and Princess Margaret played for tragedy - ignoring the "good works" she did - for example with AIDS, long before Diana showed up with the cameras. It wasn't an accident that Margaret was the Royal Patron of The Lighthouse and the Terrence Higgins Trust. Or that the queen would be more aware that one of her close friends was "a friend of Dorothy" than she was.

    Did the fake news add to the excitement / enjoyment or did it feel like a writer hatred of Thatcher taking the opportunity to blackened her name?
    As long as you regard it as "a drama" rather than "a documentary" its fine - but the trouble is many will, I suspect, see it as "the truth" - a bit like Braveheart - fun film, risible history.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,123
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Spot on. It's a nice advert.

    Far fewer people watch live ads now (unless they're watching live TV per chance) so it's a social media battle. Sainsbury's will be well aware this will be widely shared, for a variety of reasons, and that will do them very nicely.

    I've already ordered my Christmas food from M&S, same as I do every year, as I've never found anywhere as good - their stuff is sublime.

    We do ours with Waitrose every year and get the bird from direct from a farm. We tried M&S a couple of years ago and it wasn't as good so we switched back to Waitrose. Maybe it was a bad year.

    This year we've gone for a Turkey, the farm was very glad for the business.
    Apparently there is going to be a shortage of UK turkey this year because 5m (seriously!) Brits normally go abroad for Christmas and nearly all will be here instead. We are having to make special arrangements to get enough turkey pluckers in from abroad but we will probably have to import some turkeys as well.

    Most years we go around on Christmas eve and buy a bronzed turkey once the price has collapsed. That might be a bit riskier this year.
    Pro tip: don't buy a turkey; buy a turkey crown.
    Not big enough (and I actually like a leg). I would agree the waste is much less, especially if it is a smaller family gathering this year which it still might be.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,848
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1329017340139360257
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,894
    edited November 2020
    Sainsbury’s ad for white people

    https://twitter.com/sainsburys/status/1328231341058629633?s=21
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,848
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1329017515972960256
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,894
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    1. portray people of colour in an advert
    2. wait for idiots to explode in outrage on social media
    3. watch all the free publicity pour in

    This pattern is now so well known, I wouldn't be surprised if the marketing folks working for Sainsbury's played into it. And I have mixed feelings about that. I don't think Sainsbury's are doing anything wrong, but I can't help feeling a slightly cynical twist of mind at it. Like they're somehow benefiting from racism, in a weird, indirect, blameless, but cynical way.

    The one thing it does confirm for me, though, is that social media is a sewer and we're better off spending minimal time on there.

    Merry Christmas everyone.

    Can’t help but agree
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,247
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1329017515972960256

    Good for him
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,123
    Toms said:

    I don't particularly like Christmas or bank "holidays" as they are really enforced down time. Yeah gods, there is so much to do and take pleasure in doing it. And so little time.

    Racism: let us question ourselves about it and resolve to discourage it as it happens around us

    Humbug!
    https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=mr+scrooge+song&docid=608045693067329797&mid=4E2E0A2E50A8168B11E44E2E0A2E50A8168B11E4&view=detail&FORM=VIRE
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,174
    Looks like Jeremy will have to continue to sit in the back corner of the Commons, away from his friends, wearing his dunce's hat.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,894

    https://twitter.com/mattchorley/status/1329017099143041024?s=21
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    isam said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Meanwhile, the true believers over at lockdownsceptics believe that:

    - False positives have spiked for some unknown reason, spreading almost like a virus
    - People are turning up at hospital with false positivity about ten days delayed from the spread of false positives
    - People are dying about twenty days after the increased spread in false positives, with the rate of dying continuing to climb and now very visible in excess deaths
    - People diagnosed with these false positives are dying within 28 days at a rate far, far faster than the normal rate of death (if they were dying just at the "normal" rate for someone picked at random dying within 28 days, the population of the UK would halve in a year)

    And, with that amazing series of coincidences, it's actually happening around the world! Almost as if there's a pandemic of a real virus.

    It's happening in Austria as well.
    In Belgium.
    In Croatia.
    In the Czech Republic (my God, is it happening in the Czech Republic!).
    In France.
    In Hungary.
    In Ireland.
    In Italy.
    In the Netherlands, except they seem to have got the false positives under control by pretending they're real and reacting as if they're real.
    In Poland.
    In Portugal.
    In Spain.
    In Slovakia (although they've brought it down by really pretending hard that it's real and testing their entire population and isolating all the false positives and for some reason this has prevented the false positives from spreading)
    In Sweden.

    Over the the US, in Wisconsin, South Dakota, North Dakota, Georgia... all over the place.

    And that's just Europe and the US. My God, how amazingly coincidental it's all been with these false positives magically happening like this?

    Any idea why it is happening in the Czech Rep but not Slovakia?
    Slovakia are about to enter their 3rd round of mass country wide testing and isolation.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    kamski said:

    Alistair said:

    Benpointer said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Doesn't it depend on what Donald does?

    If he is still squatting on January 5th 2021, the Dems have a chance of taking both seats. Otherwise it's one each at best, but probably 2-0 to the GoP.

    I don't see the logic for one each. How many people are going to vote for one Rep and not the other or one Dem and not the other?
    USA swing voters have a love affair with "bi-partisanship"
    The last time there were 2 senate races in the same state was Minnesota 2018. Dems won both races BUT
    one was

    Klobuchar 60.3% vs Newberger 36.2% (Dem won by 24.1%)
    the other went
    Smith 53.0% vs Housley 42.4% (Dem won by 10.6%)

    Now there are no doubt good reasons why there was such a big difference in those races, and good reasons why there won't be such a big difference in Georgia, but in a close race (which looks likely in Georgia), it could easily go one each.
    Yes, that's the way I understand it. I believe Warnock has a strong personal following, so I guess he might be the one to get through if it is one each.
    Also Leoffler is awful.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,894
    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Meanwhile, the true believers over at lockdownsceptics believe that:

    - False positives have spiked for some unknown reason, spreading almost like a virus
    - People are turning up at hospital with false positivity about ten days delayed from the spread of false positives
    - People are dying about twenty days after the increased spread in false positives, with the rate of dying continuing to climb and now very visible in excess deaths
    - People diagnosed with these false positives are dying within 28 days at a rate far, far faster than the normal rate of death (if they were dying just at the "normal" rate for someone picked at random dying within 28 days, the population of the UK would halve in a year)

    And, with that amazing series of coincidences, it's actually happening around the world! Almost as if there's a pandemic of a real virus.

    It's happening in Austria as well.
    In Belgium.
    In Croatia.
    In the Czech Republic (my God, is it happening in the Czech Republic!).
    In France.
    In Hungary.
    In Ireland.
    In Italy.
    In the Netherlands, except they seem to have got the false positives under control by pretending they're real and reacting as if they're real.
    In Poland.
    In Portugal.
    In Spain.
    In Slovakia (although they've brought it down by really pretending hard that it's real and testing their entire population and isolating all the false positives and for some reason this has prevented the false positives from spreading)
    In Sweden.

    Over the the US, in Wisconsin, South Dakota, North Dakota, Georgia... all over the place.

    And that's just Europe and the US. My God, how amazingly coincidental it's all been with these false positives magically happening like this?

    Any idea why it is happening in the Czech Rep but not Slovakia?
    Slovakia are about to enter their 3rd round of mass country wide testing and isolation.
    What have CR done?

  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1328914932407164928?s=19

    Is that fake news? According to worldometers there have been a total of 818 Covid deaths in El Paso (pop 720k).

    So that's 1,136 deaths per million* high but by no means the highest in the US.

    (*or 113 if you're Toby Young)
    I would be surprised as BNO is a legit source. Here is BBC report about how they are struggling.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-54966876
    Yep, fair enough. Shocking.
    Over 10% of El Paso has been diagnosed with Covid. And that's just the detected cases.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Good for Starmer belatedly being dragged to doing the right thing.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    edited November 2020
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1329017340139360257

    That's a major Johnson fox for PMQs shot.....
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,288
    Alistair said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    kamski said:

    Alistair said:

    Benpointer said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Doesn't it depend on what Donald does?

    If he is still squatting on January 5th 2021, the Dems have a chance of taking both seats. Otherwise it's one each at best, but probably 2-0 to the GoP.

    I don't see the logic for one each. How many people are going to vote for one Rep and not the other or one Dem and not the other?
    USA swing voters have a love affair with "bi-partisanship"
    The last time there were 2 senate races in the same state was Minnesota 2018. Dems won both races BUT
    one was

    Klobuchar 60.3% vs Newberger 36.2% (Dem won by 24.1%)
    the other went
    Smith 53.0% vs Housley 42.4% (Dem won by 10.6%)

    Now there are no doubt good reasons why there was such a big difference in those races, and good reasons why there won't be such a big difference in Georgia, but in a close race (which looks likely in Georgia), it could easily go one each.
    Yes, that's the way I understand it. I believe Warnock has a strong personal following, so I guess he might be the one to get through if it is one each.
    Also Leoffler is awful.
    Is that likely to harm his chances?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Alistair said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1328914932407164928?s=19

    Is that fake news? According to worldometers there have been a total of 818 Covid deaths in El Paso (pop 720k).

    So that's 1,136 deaths per million* high but by no means the highest in the US.

    (*or 113 if you're Toby Young)
    I would be surprised as BNO is a legit source. Here is BBC report about how they are struggling.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-54966876
    Yep, fair enough. Shocking.
    Over 10% of El Paso has been diagnosed with Covid. And that's just the detected cases.
    Going for herd immunity.....
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    Some of the Betfair prices are literally off the planet, won't win even if Trump executes a succesful coup.

    Trump popular vote is bad but

    Trump 61%+ and Trump 390+ ECVs both at 50-1 are stark raving bonkers.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    Whether the funding will improve the quality of the planning, time will tell....

    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1328990891403522050?s=20
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,174
    CarlottaVance said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1329017340139360257

    That's a major Johnson fox for PMQs shot.....
    Boris will now have to focus this on 'a divided Labour party' - Keir v NEC
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    isam said:


    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Meanwhile, the true believers over at lockdownsceptics believe that:

    - False positives have spiked for some unknown reason, spreading almost like a virus
    - People are turning up at hospital with false positivity about ten days delayed from the spread of false positives
    - People are dying about twenty days after the increased spread in false positives, with the rate of dying continuing to climb and now very visible in excess deaths
    - People diagnosed with these false positives are dying within 28 days at a rate far, far faster than the normal rate of death (if they were dying just at the "normal" rate for someone picked at random dying within 28 days, the population of the UK would halve in a year)

    And, with that amazing series of coincidences, it's actually happening around the world! Almost as if there's a pandemic of a real virus.

    It's happening in Austria as well.
    In Belgium.
    In Croatia.
    In the Czech Republic (my God, is it happening in the Czech Republic!).
    In France.
    In Hungary.
    In Ireland.
    In Italy.
    In the Netherlands, except they seem to have got the false positives under control by pretending they're real and reacting as if they're real.
    In Poland.
    In Portugal.
    In Spain.
    In Slovakia (although they've brought it down by really pretending hard that it's real and testing their entire population and isolating all the false positives and for some reason this has prevented the false positives from spreading)
    In Sweden.

    Over the the US, in Wisconsin, South Dakota, North Dakota, Georgia... all over the place.

    And that's just Europe and the US. My God, how amazingly coincidental it's all been with these false positives magically happening like this?

    Any idea why it is happening in the Czech Rep but not Slovakia?
    Slovakia are about to enter their 3rd round of mass country wide testing and isolation.
    What have CR done?

    They "did an America" and started lifting restrictions rapidly in May/June
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,234
    DavidL said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Spot on. It's a nice advert.

    Far fewer people watch live ads now (unless they're watching live TV per chance) so it's a social media battle. Sainsbury's will be well aware this will be widely shared, for a variety of reasons, and that will do them very nicely.

    I've already ordered my Christmas food from M&S, same as I do every year, as I've never found anywhere as good - their stuff is sublime.

    We do ours with Waitrose every year and get the bird from direct from a farm. We tried M&S a couple of years ago and it wasn't as good so we switched back to Waitrose. Maybe it was a bad year.

    This year we've gone for a Turkey, the farm was very glad for the business.
    Apparently there is going to be a shortage of UK turkey this year because 5m (seriously!) Brits normally go abroad for Christmas and nearly all will be here instead. We are having to make special arrangements to get enough turkey pluckers in from abroad but we will probably have to import some turkeys as well.

    Most years we go around on Christmas eve and buy a bronzed turkey once the price has collapsed. That might be a bit riskier this year.
    Pro tip: don't buy a turkey; buy a turkey crown.
    Not big enough (and I actually like a leg). I would agree the waste is much less, especially if it is a smaller family gathering this year which it still might be.
    Crowns are easier to cook evenly. Buy two.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Alistair said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    kamski said:

    Alistair said:

    Benpointer said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Doesn't it depend on what Donald does?

    If he is still squatting on January 5th 2021, the Dems have a chance of taking both seats. Otherwise it's one each at best, but probably 2-0 to the GoP.

    I don't see the logic for one each. How many people are going to vote for one Rep and not the other or one Dem and not the other?
    USA swing voters have a love affair with "bi-partisanship"
    The last time there were 2 senate races in the same state was Minnesota 2018. Dems won both races BUT
    one was

    Klobuchar 60.3% vs Newberger 36.2% (Dem won by 24.1%)
    the other went
    Smith 53.0% vs Housley 42.4% (Dem won by 10.6%)

    Now there are no doubt good reasons why there was such a big difference in those races, and good reasons why there won't be such a big difference in Georgia, but in a close race (which looks likely in Georgia), it could easily go one each.
    Yes, that's the way I understand it. I believe Warnock has a strong personal following, so I guess he might be the one to get through if it is one each.
    Also Leoffler is awful.
    Is that likely to harm his chances?
    Fine margins can decide this.

    For centrists a vote for Warnock but against Loeffler ensures bipartisanship in the Senate/Oval Office but removes Loeffler.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,123
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Good for Starmer belatedly being dragged to doing the right thing.

    I think that is a little harsh. He has responded to the NEC's decision yesterday pretty promptly using the powers available to him.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,494
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Good for Starmer belatedly being dragged to doing the right thing.

    Clause 4 moment?

  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    isam said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    1. portray people of colour in an advert
    2. wait for idiots to explode in outrage on social media
    3. watch all the free publicity pour in

    This pattern is now so well known, I wouldn't be surprised if the marketing folks working for Sainsbury's played into it. And I have mixed feelings about that. I don't think Sainsbury's are doing anything wrong, but I can't help feeling a slightly cynical twist of mind at it. Like they're somehow benefiting from racism, in a weird, indirect, blameless, but cynical way.

    The one thing it does confirm for me, though, is that social media is a sewer and we're better off spending minimal time on there.

    Merry Christmas everyone.

    Can’t help but agree
    I’m fairly sure that PB is a form of social media.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    https://twitter.com/PhilipMichaels/status/1328852965067681793?s=19
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,380
    Philip_Thompson said:

    I saw the Sainsbury's ad last night and thought it was one of the best Christmas ads I'd seen this year.

    Didn't even think about skin colour or notice the fact they were black. That wasn't the relevant bit to me, for me it was a family having a 2020 Christmas talking about gravy etc - that some people see that and get offended is absolutely beyond me.

    That's an interesting point - have other supermarkets/big retailers not featured black/other non-white families? I would assume they have (be a bit shocked if not) but I honestly can't remember. As you say, not really something that you notice particularly unless flagged up.

    I do remember the Lloyds banking front page picture/ad being a couple of men getting engaged a few years back, but I'd seen that a few times before I twigged the significance (one of the first ads to feature an openly homosexual couple, I think).
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Alistair said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    kamski said:

    Alistair said:

    Benpointer said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Doesn't it depend on what Donald does?

    If he is still squatting on January 5th 2021, the Dems have a chance of taking both seats. Otherwise it's one each at best, but probably 2-0 to the GoP.

    I don't see the logic for one each. How many people are going to vote for one Rep and not the other or one Dem and not the other?
    USA swing voters have a love affair with "bi-partisanship"
    The last time there were 2 senate races in the same state was Minnesota 2018. Dems won both races BUT
    one was

    Klobuchar 60.3% vs Newberger 36.2% (Dem won by 24.1%)
    the other went
    Smith 53.0% vs Housley 42.4% (Dem won by 10.6%)

    Now there are no doubt good reasons why there was such a big difference in those races, and good reasons why there won't be such a big difference in Georgia, but in a close race (which looks likely in Georgia), it could easily go one each.
    Yes, that's the way I understand it. I believe Warnock has a strong personal following, so I guess he might be the one to get through if it is one each.
    Also Leoffler is awful.
    Is that likely to harm his chances?
    Having sold millions of stock in response to secret Covid briefings whilst telling Georgia there was noting to worry about is gonna play badly as the 3rd wave crests in Georgia. Although this was known months ago it recently came out she'd sold an extra 10 million or so more stocks than first thought.

    The November election took place with Covid cases falling in Georgia. They are once again rising now.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,123
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Spot on. It's a nice advert.

    Far fewer people watch live ads now (unless they're watching live TV per chance) so it's a social media battle. Sainsbury's will be well aware this will be widely shared, for a variety of reasons, and that will do them very nicely.

    I've already ordered my Christmas food from M&S, same as I do every year, as I've never found anywhere as good - their stuff is sublime.

    We do ours with Waitrose every year and get the bird from direct from a farm. We tried M&S a couple of years ago and it wasn't as good so we switched back to Waitrose. Maybe it was a bad year.

    This year we've gone for a Turkey, the farm was very glad for the business.
    Apparently there is going to be a shortage of UK turkey this year because 5m (seriously!) Brits normally go abroad for Christmas and nearly all will be here instead. We are having to make special arrangements to get enough turkey pluckers in from abroad but we will probably have to import some turkeys as well.

    Most years we go around on Christmas eve and buy a bronzed turkey once the price has collapsed. That might be a bit riskier this year.
    Pro tip: don't buy a turkey; buy a turkey crown.
    Not big enough (and I actually like a leg). I would agree the waste is much less, especially if it is a smaller family gathering this year which it still might be.
    Crowns are easier to cook evenly. Buy two.
    I am not sure that you are getting this tradition thing.
  • Options
    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    I hope the government will also be developing in parallel a vaccination certification system, especially for passport holders, as I assume many countries will be insisting on evidence of vaccination prior to entry.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Some of the Betfair prices are literally off the planet, won't win even if Trump executes a succesful coup.

    Trump popular vote is bad but

    Trump 61%+ and Trump 390+ ECVs both at 50-1 are stark raving bonkers.

    The easiest way to be rich is to start rich. There is so much free money available for someone with a million quid or two spare.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,380
    DavidL said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Good for Starmer belatedly being dragged to doing the right thing.

    I think that is a little harsh. He has responded to the NEC's decision yesterday pretty promptly using the powers available to him.
    Yep, seems to be what's within his powers.

    There's a bigger question of how he felt able to serve in Corbyn's shadow cabinet while all this was going on, which is presumably why Starmer's been very focused on Corbyn's response to the report rather than what Corbyn failed to stop/allowed while leader.
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    isam said:

    Sainsbury’s ad for white people

    https://twitter.com/sainsburys/status/1328231341058629633?s=21

    the xmas food adverts do feel to have started earlier than usual this year but could be my memory failing me.

    am very disappointed with the John Lewis one. didn't even get close to a tear. thought last year's was superb.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,175
    "The disciplinary process does not have the confidence of the Jewish community". Can't get clearer than that. He's openly accusing the likes of Yasmine Dar of being biased towards Jezbollah. I wonder why?

    https://labouroutlook.org/2020/11/11/rebuilding-to-win-yasmine-dar-ann-henderson-labour-nec-members-grassrootsvoice/

    "Of course there were a combination of reasons that Labour lost – not least Brexit and the relentless campaign against Jeremy Corbyn. The vilification started from the moment he was elected Leader"
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,708
    paulyork64 said:

    isam said:

    Sainsbury’s ad for white people

    https://twitter.com/sainsburys/status/1328231341058629633?s=21

    the xmas food adverts do feel to have started earlier than usual this year but could be my memory failing me.

    am very disappointed with the John Lewis one. didn't even get close to a tear. thought last year's was superb.
    These ads are all gruesome - why does anyone give two fucks about them? BBC = no ads, yeah.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    Some questions

    i) How antisemitic are GA voters - could affect Ossoff
    ii) How racist are GA voters, could affect Warnock
    iii) How batshit moon crazy are GOP GA voters - if they're full loon that could advantage Loeffler relative to Purdue; slightly saner GOP types might vote Purdue and leave the other race blank.
    iv) Does Metro turnout exceed rural relative to the general - this might be the biggest indicator of the Dems chances.

    Just under half of GA voted for Trump so we can't rule much out.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,336
    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Meanwhile, the true believers over at lockdownsceptics believe that:

    - False positives have spiked for some unknown reason, spreading almost like a virus
    - People are turning up at hospital with false positivity about ten days delayed from the spread of false positives
    - People are dying about twenty days after the increased spread in false positives, with the rate of dying continuing to climb and now very visible in excess deaths
    - People diagnosed with these false positives are dying within 28 days at a rate far, far faster than the normal rate of death (if they were dying just at the "normal" rate for someone picked at random dying within 28 days, the population of the UK would halve in a year)

    And, with that amazing series of coincidences, it's actually happening around the world! Almost as if there's a pandemic of a real virus.

    It's happening in Austria as well.
    In Belgium.
    In Croatia.
    In the Czech Republic (my God, is it happening in the Czech Republic!).
    In France.
    In Hungary.
    In Ireland.
    In Italy.
    In the Netherlands, except they seem to have got the false positives under control by pretending they're real and reacting as if they're real.
    In Poland.
    In Portugal.
    In Spain.
    In Slovakia (although they've brought it down by really pretending hard that it's real and testing their entire population and isolating all the false positives and for some reason this has prevented the false positives from spreading)
    In Sweden.

    Over the the US, in Wisconsin, South Dakota, North Dakota, Georgia... all over the place.

    And that's just Europe and the US. My God, how amazingly coincidental it's all been with these false positives magically happening like this?

    Any idea why it is happening in the Czech Rep but not Slovakia?
    Slovakia are about to enter their 3rd round of mass country wide testing and isolation.
    (FPT)
    https://twitter.com/DanLarremore/status/1328487321180590080
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,123
    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Good for Starmer belatedly being dragged to doing the right thing.

    I think that is a little harsh. He has responded to the NEC's decision yesterday pretty promptly using the powers available to him.
    Yep, seems to be what's within his powers.

    There's a bigger question of how he felt able to serve in Corbyn's shadow cabinet while all this was going on, which is presumably why Starmer's been very focused on Corbyn's response to the report rather than what Corbyn failed to stop/allowed while leader.
    I agree that he has issues to answer on the bigger question. But credit where its due. He hasn't backed off or sought to hide behind those prats on the NEC.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2020
    paulyork64 said:

    isam said:

    Sainsbury’s ad for white people

    https://twitter.com/sainsburys/status/1328231341058629633?s=21

    the xmas food adverts do feel to have started earlier than usual this year but could be my memory failing me.

    am very disappointed with the John Lewis one. didn't even get close to a tear. thought last year's was superb.
    John Lewis ads have been on the downhill for a few years...remember the creepy man on the moon one. I don't think they ever topped the snowman one.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,894
    Selebian said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I saw the Sainsbury's ad last night and thought it was one of the best Christmas ads I'd seen this year.

    Didn't even think about skin colour or notice the fact they were black. That wasn't the relevant bit to me, for me it was a family having a 2020 Christmas talking about gravy etc - that some people see that and get offended is absolutely beyond me.

    That's an interesting point - have other supermarkets/big retailers not featured black/other non-white families? I would assume they have (be a bit shocked if not) but I honestly can't remember. As you say, not really something that you notice particularly unless flagged up.

    I do remember the Lloyds banking front page picture/ad being a couple of men getting engaged a few years back, but I'd seen that a few times before I twigged the significance (one of the first ads to feature an openly homosexual couple, I think).
    Sainsbury’s are doing different ads featuring different races it seems. Maybe the third will be a mixture.

    If they are trying to represent the countries demographic, it fails as BAME is a smallish minority, if they are trying to promote an ideal situation I think it fails too because it segregates the races. Racists would probably be pleased to have different ads for black and white families. Best not to go there, but as @Roy_G_Biv says it is almost certainly a part of the marketing strategy to provoke some fury
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,848
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1329020965033041923
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    The army are firing off some serious artillery on Pirbright ranges this morning.
This discussion has been closed.