Above is the market from the Smarkets exchange on the big outstanding issue from the White House election fifteen days ago. This is on whether the Democrats can win the Georgia run-offs which would give them control of the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Comments
The comments on Twitter under this Sainsbury's ad - that has the temerity to show a black family celebrating Christmas - are a sight to behold. I only became aware of it as it was filmed in a house a couple of streets down from me. As others have noted, people had less of a problem with the Asda ad which portrayed a family of carrots.
https://twitter.com/sainsburys/status/1327506558322880514?s=20
BTW, I did wonder what the other 'reasons' are to boycott Sainsburys, but Google reveals they're apparently unbearably woke. I won't post links. I don't normally let cultur wars determine my shopping habits, should I?
They do have other families, apparently, in different versions of the ad - haven't seen them though - but if that is true it in itself makes a nonsense of a lot of the comments.
Is there such a political philosophy as "national libertarianism"?
If he is still squatting on January 5th 2021, the Dems have a chance of taking both seats. Otherwise it's one each at best, but probably 2-0 to the GoP.
Didn't even think about skin colour or notice the fact they were black. That wasn't the relevant bit to me, for me it was a family having a 2020 Christmas talking about gravy etc - that some people see that and get offended is absolutely beyond me.
Biden 1.05
Democrats 1.05
Biden PV 1.03
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.06
Trump ECV 210-239 1.07
Biden ECV 300-329 1.07
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.06
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.02
AZ Dem 1.05
GA Dem 1.07
MI Dem 1.06
NV Dem 1.04
PA Dem 1.05
WI Dem 1.05
I suspect that hard core racists are actually a very small minority in this country; most people prefer a live and let live approach and have friends and colleagues from a mix of ethnicities.
https://twitter.com/DigbyWhat/status/1328705089347989504?s=20
I suspect that hard core racists are actually a very small minority in this country; most people prefer a live and let live approach and have friends and colleagues from a mix of ethnicities.
Spot on. It's a nice advert.
Far fewer people watch live ads now (unless they're watching live TV per chance) so it's a social media battle. Sainsbury's will be well aware this will be widely shared, for a variety of reasons, and that will do them very nicely.
I've already ordered my Christmas food from M&S, same as I do every year, as I've never found anywhere as good - their stuff is sublime.
This year we've gone for a Turkey, the farm was very glad for the business.
https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/1328976765964972032?s=20
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1329003627810320384?s=19
https://twitter.com/C_C_Krebs/status/1328920346603499520?s=20
Most years we go around on Christmas eve and buy a bronzed turkey once the price has collapsed. That might be a bit riskier this year.
Racism: let us question ourselves about it and resolve to discourage it as it happens around us
So that's 1,136 deaths per million* high but by no means the highest in the US.
(*or 113 if you're Toby Young)
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-54966876
Thatcher leaves office??
Obviously getting to November before cases escalate is already a win, but I think we might see something of an outbreak and things being closed soon.
The logistics of getting crops like that to market at exactly the right time, regardless of whether it was a warm or cold, wet or dry winter were genuinely fascinating (unlike the case which was pretty straightforward). Will we be short of Brussel Sprouts this year? My brother, for one, would be delighted.
Focus groups didn't believe them even when it was pointed out in the GOP platform.
Voters simply wouldn't believe that a politician would attempt it.
one was
Klobuchar 60.3% vs Newberger 36.2% (Dem won by 24.1%)
the other went
Smith 53.0% vs Housley 42.4% (Dem won by 10.6%)
Now there are no doubt good reasons why there was such a big difference in those races, and good reasons why there won't be such a big difference in Georgia, but in a close race (which looks likely in Georgia), it could easily go one each.
2. wait for idiots to explode in outrage on social media
3. watch all the free publicity pour in
This pattern is now so well known, I wouldn't be surprised if the marketing folks working for Sainsbury's played into it. And I have mixed feelings about that. I don't think Sainsbury's are doing anything wrong, but I can't help feeling a slightly cynical twist of mind at it. Like they're somehow benefiting from racism, in a weird, indirect, blameless, but cynical way.
The one thing it does confirm for me, though, is that social media is a sewer and we're better off spending minimal time on there.
Merry Christmas everyone.
Just shows how things have moved on in 30 odd years and thank God for it.
https://twitter.com/sainsburys/status/1328231341058629633?s=21
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=mr+scrooge+song&docid=608045693067329797&mid=4E2E0A2E50A8168B11E44E2E0A2E50A8168B11E4&view=detail&FORM=VIRE
https://twitter.com/mattchorley/status/1329017099143041024?s=21
Trump popular vote is bad but
Trump 61%+ and Trump 390+ ECVs both at 50-1 are stark raving bonkers.
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1328990891403522050?s=20
For centrists a vote for Warnock but against Loeffler ensures bipartisanship in the Senate/Oval Office but removes Loeffler.
I do remember the Lloyds banking front page picture/ad being a couple of men getting engaged a few years back, but I'd seen that a few times before I twigged the significance (one of the first ads to feature an openly homosexual couple, I think).
The November election took place with Covid cases falling in Georgia. They are once again rising now.
There's a bigger question of how he felt able to serve in Corbyn's shadow cabinet while all this was going on, which is presumably why Starmer's been very focused on Corbyn's response to the report rather than what Corbyn failed to stop/allowed while leader.
am very disappointed with the John Lewis one. didn't even get close to a tear. thought last year's was superb.
https://labouroutlook.org/2020/11/11/rebuilding-to-win-yasmine-dar-ann-henderson-labour-nec-members-grassrootsvoice/
"Of course there were a combination of reasons that Labour lost – not least Brexit and the relentless campaign against Jeremy Corbyn. The vilification started from the moment he was elected Leader"
i) How antisemitic are GA voters - could affect Ossoff
ii) How racist are GA voters, could affect Warnock
iii) How batshit moon crazy are GOP GA voters - if they're full loon that could advantage Loeffler relative to Purdue; slightly saner GOP types might vote Purdue and leave the other race blank.
iv) Does Metro turnout exceed rural relative to the general - this might be the biggest indicator of the Dems chances.
Just under half of GA voted for Trump so we can't rule much out.
https://twitter.com/DanLarremore/status/1328487321180590080
If they are trying to represent the countries demographic, it fails as BAME is a smallish minority, if they are trying to promote an ideal situation I think it fails too because it segregates the races. Racists would probably be pleased to have different ads for black and white families. Best not to go there, but as @Roy_G_Biv says it is almost certainly a part of the marketing strategy to provoke some fury