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The Trump Presidency – are we about to start the end days? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Same issue the US has. Most illegal immigration isn't people sneaking over borders, it's people coming in through normal channels and (shocked gasp) lying about their intentions.

    (SCENE: Luton airport, early Monday morning. Flight from somewhere Eastern European has landed.)

    Border official: Good morning Sir. Are you here to work, that isn't allowed any more?

    Eastern European gentleman: No Sir. I am here for a holiday. A painting holiday. Look at my many paintbrushes. I love to paint. I come to England as often as I can to paint.

    Border official: Very good. Remember what the rules about employment are.

    Now, it's possible to clamp down on undocumented, cash in hand work. Of course, it's possible, But it's not very likely, is it?

    Same issue the US has. Most illegal immigration isn't people sneaking over borders, it's people coming in through normal channels and (shocked gasp) lying about their intentions.

    (SCENE: Luton airport, early Monday morning. Flight from somewhere Eastern European has landed.)

    Border official: Good morning Sir. Are you here to work, that isn't allowed any more?

    Eastern European gentleman: No Sir. I am here for a holiday. A painting holiday. Look at my many paintbrushes. I love to paint. I come to England as often as I can to paint.

    Border official: Very good. Remember what the rules about employment are.

    Now, it's possible to clamp down on undocumented, cash in hand work. Of course, it's possible, But it's not very likely, is it?
    That's the point though, the border has never been the place where the rules are enforced. The rules are enforced by demanding employers maintain proof of right to work in the UK, by fining or imprisoning employers who break these laws etc

    That is how the issue has been addressed for decades already. The system already exists.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    felix said:

    You are confusing Wales with the UK. In the former Labour have nearly always had quite large leads which have not been matched in England. This poll shows a swing back to Labour in Wales but not a large one and in fact if replicated in the Welsh elections next year would see gains for the Tories. Even looking at the UK GE potential gains for Labour of 5 would just be reversing most but not all of the gains made last year.
    True. But a couple of caveats. 3 of the Tory holds are by fewer than 200 votes off that poll. Aberconwy, Wrexham and Vale of Glamorgan. Make it 8 and it is a bit more than reverting to 2017.
    And, of course, apart from Ynys Mon, none of these constituencies will exist come 2024 anyways.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,170

    Do you think he should have been in jail?
    Clearly you don't, as you said he should have remained in prison until he was deemed no longer a danger to the public. He was deemed not a danger to the public.

    Obviously that was wrong, but in your view, he should have been released.
  • NEW THREAD

  • We have already left the EU. But afeared of the Farage Tories persuaded people that the EU was the EEA. We have spent years trying to negotiate ourselves out of the EEA/CU without spending any money or time on the stuff needed to be out like a border and customs infrastructure.

    What is going to happen is exactly what happened to Norniron. Shagger will declare victory. Declare that we will no longer pay money to the EU and are free to do trade deals. Instead we will pay money to the UKEU FTA who will forward our money to the EU. We won't have free movement we will have reciprocal arrangements with a new much harsher 90 day window after which we can deport scroungers.

    Everyone's a winner.
    Johnson and Gove both explicitly said before the EU Referendum that we would leave the Single Market.

    That's nothing to do with Farage.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,759

    Until at the very least he's deemed no longer a danger to the public.

    The problem isn't lawyers who get involved when there is a clear case of the law not being implemented correctly, but that isn't what happens. There are a group of human rights lawyers who target these particular cases and use every legal loophole and trick in the book to get them out of jail.
    And what do you think the Home Office is doing?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2020

    We've tarmaced over a few fields - its hardly the same as border infrastructure. As for putting booths in, how does that work? You pre-clear trucks at Ashford and then don't check them when they cross the border - so is all of Kent a bonded warehouse?

    Its no deal to No Deal. Can't be done. Which leaves deal - and that requires the continuation along the exact same basis as we already have. We will loudly champion our Sovereign Right to negotiate variance trade deals to the EU. And then tell people they take years and years, start discussions and quietly let it drop.
    You don't need booths, nothing gets checked at booths. Look across the world, booths aren't how the world operates in 2020.
  • Ok guys so what do we think explains the big overnight Trump move on the market? Was about 2.98 late last night, into 2.68 this lunchtime, now back to 2.78.

    Surely not the results from the NH hamlets?

    Thoughts (ideally serious ones!)

    Thanks!
  • Isn't that exactly what happened in this case? He was deemed no longer a danger to the public.

    See you don't actually have a solution at all. You just like to whine about "lefty human rights lawyers".
    He was released early because of his age.

    My solution for Islamic terrorists is jail and then deportation at the end of the sentence.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,170

    He was released early because of his age.

    My solution for Islamic terrorists is jail and then deportation at the end of the sentence.
    Deport them where?
  • This is remarkable (or maybe y'all knew about it already) - you can look at Florida voting patterns in real time. This for example is Pinellas country, which in 2016 split pretty much evenly Trump/Clinton. You can see the registered Dem early advantage, but more GOP-registered voting today:

    https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pin

    Fascinating.

    Consistently adding 2000 votes every 10 minutes atm.

    Split of those is also consistent: 50% rep 25% dem 25% npa
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    Alistair said:

    It does in Harris County!
    Out of interest, has it only been banned in Harris Co but allowed to continue elsewhere in the state?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    Do you think he should have been in jail?
    No. Do you think everyone on the security services' watchlist should be in jail?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,198

    Deport them where?
    The highlands of Peru perhaps. I know some people who would teach them how to behave......
  • Deport them where?
    His country of origin of course, if they won't take him then he can stay in jail.

    Actually a good solution would be to rent some land off a country in North Africa and put them in there.

    What would your preferred solution be?
  • DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815
    edited November 2020
    TOPPING said:

    No. Do you think everyone on the security services' watchlist should be in jail?
    No?

    Definitely not.

    But people who have been caught trying to run off to join ISIS....yes.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079

    This is remarkable (or maybe y'all knew about it already) - you can look at Florida voting patterns in real time. This for example is Pinellas country, which in 2016 split pretty much evenly Trump/Clinton. You can see the registered Dem early advantage, but more GOP-registered voting today:

    https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pin

    Last time, Pinellas County went 50.6% Trump, 49.4% Clinton.
    Assuming:
    People vote according to their registrations
    The unaffliated split 50/50 Trump/Biden
    The turnout is 77% (last time was 77%)
    then the result in this county would be 50.8% Trump, 49.2% Biden (basically same as last time)

    It is very sensitive to turnout and unaffiliated split.
    Turnout of 80% gives 51.4% Trump 48.6% Biden (as voters on the day favour Trump)
    Unaffliated split 40/60 Trump/Biden and 80% turnout gives 49.0% Trump, 51.0% Biden.

    My feel on this small amount of data on just one county in Florida is that it favours Trump holding Florida.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    No?

    Definitely not.

    But people who have been caught trying to run off to join ISIS....yes.
    I'm over on the other thread! Let's catch up there although I have a meeting shortly.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    dixiedean said:

    True. But a couple of caveats. 3 of the Tory holds are by fewer than 200 votes off that poll. Aberconwy, Wrexham and Vale of Glamorgan. Make it 8 and it is a bit more than reverting to 2017.
    And, of course, apart from Ynys Mon, none of these constituencies will exist come 2024 anyways.
    Make it 8 and you are going beyond what the poll suggests. Which negates the exercise completely to something akin to a wishlist. I agree on the last point and overall the boundary changes actually make the Labour task a bit harder most likely - both in Wales and in the UK.
  • TOPPING said:

    fpt

    What about the 7/7 perpetrators. Where in Leeds or Bucks would you have deported them to?
    Well for example Mohammad Sidique Khan could be deported back to Pakistan.

    Surprised you didn't manage to work out that Mohammad Sidique Khan isn't a native English name.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    Well for example Mohammad Sidique Khan could be deported back to Pakistan.

    Surprised you didn't manage to work out that Mohammad Sidique Khan isn't a native English name.
    Oh! We're using peoples' names to determine whether they are English. Are you being serious?
  • TOPPING said:

    Oh! We're using peoples' names to determine whether they are English. Are you being serious?
    Lol you're trying to shame me for noticing he has a foreign background.

    He has Pakistani parents and ethnically Pakistanis are allowed to relocate back there.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,564

    It's implied by saying it is ironic that his supporters are dancing along to the village people.

    It's not complicated.
    It's certainly what I thought was implied.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    Lol you're trying to shame me for noticing he has a foreign background.

    He has Pakistani parents and ethnically Pakistanis are allowed to relocate back there.
    You are saying that people whose parents were not born here can legitimately be deported back to the place of their parents' birth? And are not English?
  • TOPPING said:

    You are saying that people whose parents were not born here can legitimately be deported back to the place of their parents' birth? And are not English?
    If they are convicted terrorists then yes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,564
    Carnyx said:

    Because the money is UK money. Not English. You're confusing the UK and England yet again.

    Quite. If parts of the UK are not willing to support other parts in their time of need what's the point of it? I have no concern there.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509

    If they are convicted terrorists then yes.
    Where do you want to draw the line; parents, grandparents, great grandparents .... Are you going to deport people back to Normandy?

    If a person is British they are British. It is of no relevance what their parents are/were.

    Just to give you an example of how silly that is I have a friend whose father is Yugoslavian. She was born here and has never been to the Balkans, can't speak the language, has a Mancunian accent and is 66. What would you do with her? She is about as Yugoslavian as I am.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    kjh said:

    Where do you want to draw the line; parents, grandparents, great grandparents .... Are you going to deport people back to Normandy?

    If a person is British they are British. It is of no relevance what their parents are/were.

    Just to give you an example of how silly that is I have a friend whose father is Yugoslavian. She was born here and has never been to the Balkans, can't speak the language, has a Mancunian accent and is 66. What would you do with her? She is about as Yugoslavian as I am.
    Equally my wife’s first name is Amanda which, coupled with my name (my real name, nor Seal) makes her sound like a shoe in for a Tory PPC in the Home Counties. She’s American and would be deeply offended if you described her as English.
  • I've just been taking a look at the final POTUS election forecast from Trafalgar Group who, alone, were spot on in 2016 when they predicted a comfortable win for Trump against Clinton.
    As then, they are again claiming to have identified a clear and significant proportion of "shy trumpsters" who, they claim, will deliver a second term in office for the incumbent as a result of him winning 306 ECVs compared with only 232 for Biden.
    The half-hour video accompanying their forecast which is in long, laboured and very muddled is intended to impress the viewer with its so-called methodology - but which I found it anything but impressive.
    Indeed, I was left with the distinct impression that it would be very difficult indeed for Biden to lose this election.
    This is perhaps best demonstrated by 3 states, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin which have been chalked up as being in the Trump camp, despite the fact that they are all considered to be near certain wins for Biden. These three states have a combined total of 46 Electoral College Votes. Deduct this number from the Red team and add it to the Blue team and as if by magic, Biden becomes the winner by 278 votes to 260 votes. If, by some miracle, Trump were to win one of these three states, there are at least another 4 or 5 which Trafalgar show as being Republican wins, but which virtually every other pollster shows the Democrats winning.
    God help the U.S. polling industry is all I would add were Trafalgar, against all the odds, to be proved right yet again!
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