What is Dominic Cummings' opinion on Scottish Independence? If he wanted to push people towards it, that's a great way to go about it.
The PM's position is there will be no indyref2 allowed while he is PM, in any case they are still getting their furlough although in my view if Sturgeon or Drakeford do not impose a lockdown at the same time as the rest of the UK they should raise Scottish or Welsh taxes to pay for it
Can one of our US experts please educate me a little on this business of US Voter Registration?
I see Registered Voters can be GoP, Dem or Independent. But what difference does that make to the vote cast? How binding is it? If I register under one Party, surely I am not bound to vote for them.
I ask because I see that the GoP has been much more successful than the Dems in getting voter registrations since the election, but is that really significant is all they are doing is enabling voters of all persuasions to cast a vote when the time comes.
In a presidential election you can vote for anyone regardless of your registration; remember many states to not even register by party. In some states it can affect whether you are allowed to vote in a particular party's primaries.
You are right that increased registration does not directly transfer to increased votes, however over-performance in registrations can often be quite predictive of outcomes.
In the 2018 Pennsylvania Senate elections, Democrats won the vote 53.8% to 45.5% but Republicans got 29 out of 50 senators. In the PA House elections Democrats won the vote 55.0% to 44.4% but Republicans got 110 out of 203 seats.
On the one hand those margins are probably fairly promising for Biden taking Pennsylvania. On the other hand to win by over 8%, with well over 50% of the vote, and the other party gets a majority is shit, I don't know why anyone puts up with it. And this assembly makes election law in Pennsylvania for the presidential election too - which may turn out to be significant.
In 2015 UKIP got 13% of the national vote and returned one MP.
You think we are in any position to comment adversely on the USA?
I'm not sure why you are including me in "we" here, I strongly support PR for the UK, where I no longer live.
However, if Labour won 45% of the vote and Conservatives 54%, but Labour still got a clear majority of MPs (or vice versa) that would be a much closer analogy, and I doubt it would be sustainable.
What is Dominic Cummings' opinion on Scottish Independence? If he wanted to push people towards it, that's a great way to go about it.
The PM's position is there will be no indyref2 allowed while he is PM, in any case they are still getting their furlough although in my view if Sturgeon or Drakeford do not impose a lockdown at the same time as the rest of the UK they should raise Scottish or Welsh taxes to pay for it
Furlough is a reserved matter. Why should Scottish or Welsh taxes go to subsidise an Enbglish lockdown when the reverse is not permitted?
Contrary to popular wisdom, this time round the silent majority is against Trump. The pollsters haven't quite spotted the extent of this (and nor have the gamblers). There's no great love for Biden, but people are fearful of another 4 years of Trump, and fearful of Covid. Apart from the Trumpsters, most Americans now think he's mad and dangerous and it's time for him to go.
Not saying you're wrong, but if it's there why don't you think the pollsters can see it?
I wonder whether there aren’t in reality a lot of shy Trump voters.
You do have an example of this from the 2016 Brexit referendum.
In the days before Jo Cox's murder, Leave was winning in a good number of the polls. In the days after, the polling momentum swung and most polls showed Remain in the lead.
In hindsight, that wasn't an actual change in opinion but it seemed a few people didn't like their names being associated with what was seen as a repulsive cause (and which many in the public eye criticised vehemently).
Because most of us find Trump repulsive, there is a tendency to assume others will too and that people will not therefore vote for him. We don’t understand why many love him. Nor do we understand that many will vote for him despite disliking him personally.
He has cleverly turned one of the criticisms made of him - that he does not follow conventions - into a strength by telling voters that he is there to serve them (unlike the conventional politicians). Regardless of whether it is true, it is an attractive message. And it may well work.
Sadly agree. Trump is going to win
A brave call! I said something equally arrogant (and wrong) on here in 2008 and it earned me the sobriquet Rogerdamus.
Yeah but that was just unlucky. I didn't think Obama would win either and told Mike so, but privately in an email - not first post up on the main thread! His price was obviously too big at 50/1 so I did get on but beat the Clinton machine? No, it was long while before I realised he was going the whole way.
Anyway your consolation is that you are immortalised in one of the best long-running jokes on PB. Long may it last. I have enjoyed it almost as much as the money.
Almost.
I think it was a bit more than just a wrong betting call to be fair. Mike's heading said something like 'Can Barack Obama at 50/1 become the first black President of the USA?' which made my 'No' sound a bit more arrogant than it otherwise would!
I think it was the lapidary certainty that did it. If you had elaborated a bit, perhaps hedging your bets as you went you'd have got away with it. Anyway I'm sure nobody took it that seriously. There have been far worse calls on this site.
Some people here even think Trump is going to be re-elected! Can you believe it?
What is Dominic Cummings' opinion on Scottish Independence? If he wanted to push people towards it, that's a great way to go about it.
The PM's position is there will be no indyref2 allowed while he is PM, in any case they are still getting their furlough although in my view if Sturgeon or Drakeford do not impose a lockdown at the same time as the rest of the UK they should raise Scottish or Welsh taxes to pay for it
Furlough is a reserved matter. Why should Scottish or Welsh taxes go to subsidise an Enbglish lockdown when the reverse is not permitted?
Why should English taxpayers pay for Scottish and Welsh furlough when England is not in lockdown? The most sensible thing is for the whole UK and all 4 home nations to fully lockdown at the same time and get furlough at the same time otherwise stick to regional tiers
Can one of our US experts please educate me a little on this business of US Voter Registration?
I see Registered Voters can be GoP, Dem or Independent. But what difference does that make to the vote cast? How binding is it? If I register under one Party, surely I am not bound to vote for them.
I ask because I see that the GoP has been much more successful than the Dems in getting voter registrations since the election, but is that really significant is all they are doing is enabling voters of all persuasions to cast a vote when the time comes.
I'm not an expert but my understanding is that it has no binding. Some states use the registration to determine which primary you can vote in but that's not consistent.
Many people who originally registered as Democrats had become Republicans and voted Republican for years; the Republicans have in recent years mounted an effort to get these voters to change their affiliation, but it won't change their ballots.
As a consequence of the Texas federal Court case Harris County is closing all but 1 of its drive through voting locations.
So the Judge achieved his objective without appearing to be a hack in the headlines.
Does preventing people from voting on the day help Trump?
It's a crazy tactic. He's been telling people to vote on the day, not to vote by mail, and yet the Texas Republicans have sought to prevent people voting. Yes, I know Harris County is a Democatic island in Texas, but even so...
What is Dominic Cummings' opinion on Scottish Independence? If he wanted to push people towards it, that's a great way to go about it.
The PM's position is there will be no indyref2 allowed while he is PM, in any case they are still getting their furlough although in my view if Sturgeon or Drakeford do not impose a lockdown at the same time as the rest of the UK they should raise Scottish or Welsh taxes to pay for it
Furlough is a reserved matter. Why should Scottish or Welsh taxes go to subsidise an Enbglish lockdown when the reverse is not permitted?
Why should English taxpayers pay for Scottish and Welsh furlough when England is not in lockdown?
Because the money is UK money. Not English. You're confusing the UK and England yet again.
Commanding lead in Wales, I guess Drakeford isn't a disaster as many here claimed
At Westminster Starmer is the Labour leader and making gains in Wales relative to Corbyn in 2019, in Cardiff Bay Drakeford is Labour leader and projected to lose seats at the Assembly elections next year compared to what Carwyn Jones got in 2016 on the same poll
At the 2016 Welsh Assembly elections Labour got 29 seats and the Tories 11, on that link the Tories will get 16 seats in the 2021 elections ie up 5 on 2016 and Labour 28 ie down 1 on 2016 so the Tories will make gains next year at the Assembly elections and Labour under Drakeford will make a loss
As a consequence of the Texas federal Court case Harris County is closing all but 1 of its drive through voting locations.
So the Judge achieved his objective without appearing to be a hack in the headlines.
Does preventing people from voting on the day help Trump?
It does in Harris County!
It went 54%-42% for Clinton last time, but if most Biden voters have already voted and most Trump voters haven't maybe it's not clear who it helps. But it might be Dem voters are more likely to rely on drive-through voting??
Is the irony of Trump and his supporters dancing along to the Village People lost on the Trumpsters?
Why is it ironic?
Because LGBT is clearly on the opposite side of the "culture war", and the Village People are camp AF.
There's no evidence Trump is anti-gay and they were just playing a song. I don't see the problem.
The way the left thinks they have a monopoly on anything possibly gay is just bizarre.
Who said anything about Trump being anti-gay? Only you.
In response to D'Alexander from my original post, I was very careful to incorporate "supporters" into my post. I don't claim to have seen any direct hostility from Donald Trump to the LGBT community. I am not so sure the vast majority of his supporters would be quite so accomodating. But it is right for D'Alexander to suggest I am stereotyping.
What is Dominic Cummings' opinion on Scottish Independence? If he wanted to push people towards it, that's a great way to go about it.
The PM's position is there will be no indyref2 allowed while he is PM, in any case they are still getting their furlough although in my view if Sturgeon or Drakeford do not impose a lockdown at the same time as the rest of the UK they should raise Scottish or Welsh taxes to pay for it
Furlough is a reserved matter. Why should Scottish or Welsh taxes go to subsidise an Enbglish lockdown when the reverse is not permitted?
Why should English taxpayers pay for Scottish and Welsh furlough when England is not in lockdown? The most sensible thing is for the whole UK and all 4 home nations to fully lockdown at the same time and get furlough at the same time otherwise stick to regional tiers
Sorry - missed your edit.
You do know that this is completely contrary to your party's policy over the last few months?
Everyone you're detecting is almost certainly infectious, and is detected in real time, so there's no tracing to do. In a city of 500k, that might mean enforcing isolation for 5,000 people. How hard is that in reality ?
.
I don't think it's right that everyone detected is almost certainly infectious?
If you use Abbott figures of: sensitivity (97.1%) and specificity (98.5%) on a population of 500k and assume 1% of population actually has the disease...
Then you get 4,855 true positives and 7,425 false positives = 40% chance person testing positive actually has disease.
It's clearly great news that you've got a big proportion of the infected into isolation, but you are probably falsely isolating a reasonable number of people.
Then test all those people with a positive with a PCR, and release them if it comes out negative.
"Release" ... yes
How much do you want to bet that the only way to get 90% isolation involves dragging people off the streets?
I guess those old plans fro interment without trial that Blair was interested in might come in handy.
Now that Boris Johnson has screwed over the Northern Irish I can think of no better way of him showing his love for Northern Ireland by introducing internment in Great Britain for those people who don't self isolate.
A week on Monday I am going onto a UK government webinar to explain what my company must do to prepare for transition exit 6 weeks later. Currently the UK government hasn't established what the trading arrangements will be, hasn't built the computer system we will need to use nor hired the customs and standards officials required. So I have no idea what they will tell us because they themselves have no idea.
You can imagine my bemusement when I see millions spaffed up against the wall on adverts telling me TIME IS RUNNING OUT and that I need to Check & Change arrangements that haven't yet been made. Not that it will be physically possible to switch said arrangements on should they unveil them tomorrow.
Commanding lead in Wales, I guess Drakeford isn't a disaster as many here claimed
At Westminster Starmer is the Labour leader and making gains in Wales relative to Corbyn in 2019, in Cardiff Bay Drakeford is Labour leader and projected to lose seats at the Assembly elections next year compared to what Carwyn Jones got in 2016 on the same poll
At the 2016 Welsh Assembly elections Labour got 29 seats and the Tories 11, on that link the Tories will get 16 seats in the 2021 elections ie up 5 on 2016 and Labour 28 ie down 1 on 2016 so the Tories will make gains next year at the Assembly elections and Labour under Drakeford will make a loss
Everyone you're detecting is almost certainly infectious, and is detected in real time, so there's no tracing to do. In a city of 500k, that might mean enforcing isolation for 5,000 people. How hard is that in reality ?
.
I don't think it's right that everyone detected is almost certainly infectious?
If you use Abbott figures of: sensitivity (97.1%) and specificity (98.5%) on a population of 500k and assume 1% of population actually has the disease...
Then you get 4,855 true positives and 7,425 false positives = 40% chance person testing positive actually has disease.
It's clearly great news that you've got a big proportion of the infected into isolation, but you are probably falsely isolating a reasonable number of people.
Then test all those people with a positive with a PCR, and release them if it comes out negative.
"Release" ... yes
How much do you want to bet that the only way to get 90% isolation involves dragging people off the streets?
I guess those old plans fro interment without trial that Blair was interested in might come in handy.
Now that Boris Johnson has screwed over the Northern Irish I can think of no better way of him showing his love for Northern Ireland by introducing internment in Great Britain for those people who don't self isolate.
A week on Monday I am going onto a UK government webinar to explain what my company must do to prepare for transition exit 6 weeks later. Currently the UK government hasn't established what the trading arrangements will be, hasn't built the computer system we will need to use nor hired the customs and standards officials required. So I have no idea what they will tell us because they themselves have no idea.
You can imagine my bemusement when I see millions spaffed up against the wall on adverts telling me TIME IS RUNNING OUT and that I need to Check & Change arrangements that haven't yet been made. Not that it will be physically possible to switch said arrangements on should they unveil them tomorrow.
Welcome to my world, fortunately I don't work in an industry that is the largest contributor to the Exchequer. Oh.
Obviously because I'm awesome, we've already made plans. Good news for the rest of the EU.
Contrary to popular wisdom, this time round the silent majority is against Trump. The pollsters haven't quite spotted the extent of this (and nor have the gamblers). There's no great love for Biden, but people are fearful of another 4 years of Trump, and fearful of Covid. Apart from the Trumpsters, most Americans now think he's mad and dangerous and it's time for him to go.
Not saying you're wrong, but if it's there why don't you think the pollsters can see it?
I wonder whether there aren’t in reality a lot of shy Trump voters.
You do have an example of this from the 2016 Brexit referendum.
In the days before Jo Cox's murder, Leave was winning in a good number of the polls. In the days after, the polling momentum swung and most polls showed Remain in the lead.
In hindsight, that wasn't an actual change in opinion but it seemed a few people didn't like their names being associated with what was seen as a repulsive cause (and which many in the public eye criticised vehemently).
Because most of us find Trump repulsive, there is a tendency to assume others will too and that people will not therefore vote for him. We don’t understand why many love him. Nor do we understand that many will vote for him despite disliking him personally.
He has cleverly turned one of the criticisms made of him - that he does not follow conventions - into a strength by telling voters that he is there to serve them (unlike the conventional politicians). Regardless of whether it is true, it is an attractive message. And it may well work.
Sadly agree. Trump is going to win
A brave call! I said something equally arrogant (and wrong) on here in 2008 and it earned me the sobriquet Rogerdamus.
Yeah but that was just unlucky. I didn't think Obama would win either and told Mike so, but privately in an email - not first post up on the main thread! His price was obviously too big at 50/1 so I did get on but beat the Clinton machine? No, it was long while before I realised he was going the whole way.
Anyway your consolation is that you are immortalised in one of the best long-running jokes on PB. Long may it last. I have enjoyed it almost as much as the money.
Almost.
I think it was a bit more than just a wrong betting call to be fair. Mike's heading said something like 'Can Barack Obama at 50/1 become the first black President of the USA?' which made my 'No' sound a bit more arrogant than it otherwise would!
I think it was the lapidary certainty that did it. If you had elaborated a bit, perhaps hedging your bets as you went you'd have got away with it. Anyway I'm sure nobody took it that seriously. There have been far worse calls on this site.
Some people here even think Trump is going to be re-elected! Can you believe it?
I had to google 'lapidary'. Thank you. I like learning new words.
Commanding lead in Wales, I guess Drakeford isn't a disaster as many here claimed
At Westminster Starmer is the Labour leader and making gains in Wales relative to Corbyn in 2019, in Cardiff Bay Drakeford is Labour leader and projected to lose seats at the Assembly elections next year compared to what Carwyn Jones got in 2016 on the same poll
At the 2016 Welsh Assembly elections Labour got 29 seats and the Tories 11, on that link the Tories will get 16 seats in the 2021 elections ie up 5 on 2016 and Labour 28 ie down 1 on 2016 so the Tories will make gains next year at the Assembly elections and Labour under Drakeford will make a loss
Ah, so we're back to picking out parts of a poll you like.
At Westminster 43 to 30 something is a landslide
16 AMs for the Tories would be the highest number of Tory seats in the Welsh Assembly since its creation in 1999.
The Welsh Assembly election is next year and Drakeford is the Welsh Labour leader, the next Westminster election is not until 2024 and Starmer, not Drakeford, is the UK Labour leader
Commanding lead in Wales, I guess Drakeford isn't a disaster as many here claimed
At Westminster Starmer is the Labour leader and making gains in Wales relative to Corbyn in 2019, in Cardiff Bay Drakeford is Labour leader and projected to lose seats at the Assembly elections next year compared to what Carwyn Jones got in 2016 on the same poll
At the 2016 Welsh Assembly elections Labour got 29 seats and the Tories 11, on that link the Tories will get 16 seats in the 2021 elections ie up 5 on 2016 and Labour 28 ie down 1 on 2016 so the Tories will make gains next year at the Assembly elections and Labour under Drakeford will make a loss
Ah, so we're back to picking out parts of a poll you like.
At Westminster 43 to 30 something is a landslide
16 AMs for the Tories would be the highest number of Tory seats in the Welsh Assembly since its creation in 1999.
The Welsh Assembly election is next year and Drakeford is the Welsh Labour leader, the next Westminster election is not until 2024 and Starmer, not Drakeford, is the UK Labour leader
You either agree 43 to 30 something is a landslide or you don't
Yvette Cooper must come back to the front bench soon please.
Why, do Labour need to be tougher on Benefit Sanctions?
Labour need to have a front bench of the highest quality to contrast against the wazzocks in the cabinet. I know that you're still sore that political giants like Abbott, Lavery, Burgon et al aren't on the opposition front bench but such is life.
In the 2018 Pennsylvania Senate elections, Democrats won the vote 53.8% to 45.5% but Republicans got 29 out of 50 senators. In the PA House elections Democrats won the vote 55.0% to 44.4% but Republicans got 110 out of 203 seats.
On the one hand those margins are probably fairly promising for Biden taking Pennsylvania. On the other hand to win by over 8%, with well over 50% of the vote, and the other party gets a majority is shit, I don't know why anyone puts up with it. And this assembly makes election law in Pennsylvania for the presidential election too - which may turn out to be significant.
In 2015 UKIP got 13% of the national vote and returned one MP.
You think we are in any position to comment adversely on the USA?
In 2015, in GB, the two parties of the right collectively got about 51% of the vote and we ended up with a right wing government. Having spent a great deal of my time in the past two years working for the opposite outcome, I am not complaining that the outcome was distorted.
By contrast, in 2020, in the US, it's conceivable that Biden could get 51% of the vote only to lose to Trump. And,as has been pointed out, there are much worse anomalies than that there. The Senate is more biased than the electoral college and the gerrymandered anomalies within state legislatures and congressional districts are staggering.
Commanding lead in Wales, I guess Drakeford isn't a disaster as many here claimed
At Westminster Starmer is the Labour leader and making gains in Wales relative to Corbyn in 2019, in Cardiff Bay Drakeford is Labour leader and projected to lose seats at the Assembly elections next year compared to what Carwyn Jones got in 2016 on the same poll
At the 2016 Welsh Assembly elections Labour got 29 seats and the Tories 11, on that link the Tories will get 16 seats in the 2021 elections ie up 5 on 2016 and Labour 28 ie down 1 on 2016 so the Tories will make gains next year at the Assembly elections and Labour under Drakeford will make a loss
Ah, so we're back to picking out parts of a poll you like.
At Westminster 43 to 30 something is a landslide
16 AMs for the Tories would be the highest number of Tory seats in the Welsh Assembly since its creation in 1999.
The Welsh Assembly election is next year and Drakeford is the Welsh Labour leader, the next Westminster election is not until 2024 and Starmer, not Drakeford, is the UK Labour leader
You either agree 43 to 30 something is a landslide or you don't
My comment was about Drakeford in Wales being a drag on the Welsh Labour vote, which he clearly is and will be at the Assembly elections next year, I never said Starmer was a drag on the UK Labour vote at UK general elections
As a consequence of the Texas federal Court case Harris County is closing all but 1 of its drive through voting locations.
So the Judge achieved his objective without appearing to be a hack in the headlines.
Does preventing people from voting on the day help Trump?
It does in Harris County!
It went 54%-42% for Clinton last time, but if most Biden voters have already voted and most Trump voters haven't maybe it's not clear who it helps. But it might be Dem voters are more likely to rely on drive-through voting??
As an old-fashioned Democrat (in a general sense, rather than the US sense) I'm in favour of people voting even when they vote for people I would never vote for.
Republicans have become so obsessed with making it hard for Democrats to vote that they almost see stopping voting as an end in itself. It's deranged.
Yvette Cooper must come back to the front bench soon please.
Why, do Labour need to be tougher on Benefit Sanctions?
Labour need to have a front bench of the highest quality to contrast against the wazzocks in the cabinet. I know that you're still sore that political giants like Abbott, Lavery, Burgon et al aren't on the opposition front bench but such is life.
Hopefully before too long political giants like Abbott, Lavery, Burgon et al are no longer in the Labour Party.
As a consequence of the Texas federal Court case Harris County is closing all but 1 of its drive through voting locations.
So the Judge achieved his objective without appearing to be a hack in the headlines.
Does preventing people from voting on the day help Trump?
It does in Harris County!
It went 54%-42% for Clinton last time, but if most Biden voters have already voted and most Trump voters haven't maybe it's not clear who it helps. But it might be Dem voters are more likely to rely on drive-through voting??
As an old-fashioned Democrat (in a general sense, rather than the US sense) I'm in favour of people voting even when they vote for people I would never vote for.
Republicans have become so obsessed with making it hard for Democrats to vote that they almost see stopping voting as an end in itself. It's deranged.
100% agreed.
The Republicans aren't fit for office until this ends and they stop trying to stop others from voting and instead start trying to win them over.
Everyone you're detecting is almost certainly infectious, and is detected in real time, so there's no tracing to do. In a city of 500k, that might mean enforcing isolation for 5,000 people. How hard is that in reality ?
.
I don't think it's right that everyone detected is almost certainly infectious?
If you use Abbott figures of: sensitivity (97.1%) and specificity (98.5%) on a population of 500k and assume 1% of population actually has the disease...
Then you get 4,855 true positives and 7,425 false positives = 40% chance person testing positive actually has disease.
It's clearly great news that you've got a big proportion of the infected into isolation, but you are probably falsely isolating a reasonable number of people.
Then test all those people with a positive with a PCR, and release them if it comes out negative.
"Release" ... yes
How much do you want to bet that the only way to get 90% isolation involves dragging people off the streets?
I guess those old plans fro interment without trial that Blair was interested in might come in handy.
Now that Boris Johnson has screwed over the Northern Irish I can think of no better way of him showing his love for Northern Ireland by introducing internment in Great Britain for those people who don't self isolate.
A week on Monday I am going onto a UK government webinar to explain what my company must do to prepare for transition exit 6 weeks later. Currently the UK government hasn't established what the trading arrangements will be, hasn't built the computer system we will need to use nor hired the customs and standards officials required. So I have no idea what they will tell us because they themselves have no idea.
You can imagine my bemusement when I see millions spaffed up against the wall on adverts telling me TIME IS RUNNING OUT and that I need to Check & Change arrangements that haven't yet been made. Not that it will be physically possible to switch said arrangements on should they unveil them tomorrow.
The pharmaceutical safety regulations are still outstanding for NI. The pharmaceutical companies are sitting there pulling their hair out currently. I imagine it is now too late to meet them even if decided today. Every time I see those bloody adverts I shout at the television how are they supposed to prepare?
@Roger In fairness the story can now be told in full.
I was in front of my computer back in 2004 when an unexpected email arrived from a well-known political commentator with a similar hairstyle to me. It contained a YouTube link to a political speech, and the comment 'This guy is 50/1 to be next President. I think he might win. What do you think?'
I watched the video for about thirty seconds before replying succinctly: 'I'm not sure if it has escaped your attention but this man appears to be black' - to which I got a swift and similarly succinct reply: 'Very funny. Now listen to the whole speech and tell me what you think.'
It was of course Obama's famous speech to the Democrat National Convention, the one that really made him a credible Presidency candidate for the first time. It was my first acquaintance with the name and of course my next reply was a bit more considered:
'Yes I can see the guy is very talented. I can't see anybody stopping the Clinton machine but he's far to big at 50/1. I've had fifty with Hills [they were still taking my bets in those days] and I can always lay it off later. Thanks for the heads up.'
That led on to further bets and one of my most successful betting events ever, but I've bored you enough already. Back to Trump. I'll be happy to clear a monkey tomorrow, but if he goes I don't care if I don't make a brass farthing.
Commanding lead in Wales, I guess Drakeford isn't a disaster as many here claimed
At Westminster Starmer is the Labour leader and making gains in Wales relative to Corbyn in 2019, in Cardiff Bay Drakeford is Labour leader and projected to lose seats at the Assembly elections next year compared to what Carwyn Jones got in 2016 on the same poll
At the 2016 Welsh Assembly elections Labour got 29 seats and the Tories 11, on that link the Tories will get 16 seats in the 2021 elections ie up 5 on 2016 and Labour 28 ie down 1 on 2016 so the Tories will make gains next year at the Assembly elections and Labour under Drakeford will make a loss
Ah, so we're back to picking out parts of a poll you like.
At Westminster 43 to 30 something is a landslide
16 AMs for the Tories would be the highest number of Tory seats in the Welsh Assembly since its creation in 1999.
The Welsh Assembly election is next year and Drakeford is the Welsh Labour leader, the next Westminster election is not until 2024 and Starmer, not Drakeford, is the UK Labour leader
You either agree 43 to 30 something is a landslide or you don't
My comment was about Drakeford in Wales being a drag on the Welsh Labour vote, which he clearly is and will be at the Assembly elections next year, I never said Starmer was a drag on the UK Labour vote at UK general elections
The comment you literally responded to was about 43 to 30 at Westminster, that would be a landslide. You're not answering the point you responded to.
Vienna gunman, 20, who killed four and wounded 17 was released early from prison on terror charges because of his age, had wanted to join ISIS in Syria - but 'was deemed incapable of an attack'
Can one of our US experts please educate me a little on this business of US Voter Registration?
I see Registered Voters can be GoP, Dem or Independent. But what difference does that make to the vote cast? How binding is it? If I register under one Party, surely I am not bound to vote for them.
I ask because I see that the GoP has been much more successful than the Dems in getting voter registrations since the election, but is that really significant is all they are doing is enabling voters of all persuasions to cast a vote when the time comes.
You can vote for anyone in GE/Senate etc, party affiliation at registration doesn't matter. Primaries it does since some states use that.
Everyone you're detecting is almost certainly infectious, and is detected in real time, so there's no tracing to do. In a city of 500k, that might mean enforcing isolation for 5,000 people. How hard is that in reality ?
.
I don't think it's right that everyone detected is almost certainly infectious?
If you use Abbott figures of: sensitivity (97.1%) and specificity (98.5%) on a population of 500k and assume 1% of population actually has the disease...
Then you get 4,855 true positives and 7,425 false positives = 40% chance person testing positive actually has disease.
It's clearly great news that you've got a big proportion of the infected into isolation, but you are probably falsely isolating a reasonable number of people.
Then test all those people with a positive with a PCR, and release them if it comes out negative.
"Release" ... yes
How much do you want to bet that the only way to get 90% isolation involves dragging people off the streets?
I guess those old plans fro interment without trial that Blair was interested in might come in handy.
Now that Boris Johnson has screwed over the Northern Irish I can think of no better way of him showing his love for Northern Ireland by introducing internment in Great Britain for those people who don't self isolate.
A week on Monday I am going onto a UK government webinar to explain what my company must do to prepare for transition exit 6 weeks later. Currently the UK government hasn't established what the trading arrangements will be, hasn't built the computer system we will need to use nor hired the customs and standards officials required. So I have no idea what they will tell us because they themselves have no idea.
You can imagine my bemusement when I see millions spaffed up against the wall on adverts telling me TIME IS RUNNING OUT and that I need to Check & Change arrangements that haven't yet been made. Not that it will be physically possible to switch said arrangements on should they unveil them tomorrow.
I never thought I'd get involved with international trade matters at my time of life....... I had pretty well nil when I was working, but one of my sons has asked me to do some digging for him, and I find that when I start 'making my inquiries' that the former Government website .gov uk has been withdrawn and replaced with 'great.gov.uk', as the logo. So something has been done!
Contrary to popular wisdom, this time round the silent majority is against Trump. The pollsters haven't quite spotted the extent of this (and nor have the gamblers). There's no great love for Biden, but people are fearful of another 4 years of Trump, and fearful of Covid. Apart from the Trumpsters, most Americans now think he's mad and dangerous and it's time for him to go.
Not saying you're wrong, but if it's there why don't you think the pollsters can see it?
I wonder whether there aren’t in reality a lot of shy Trump voters.
You do have an example of this from the 2016 Brexit referendum.
In the days before Jo Cox's murder, Leave was winning in a good number of the polls. In the days after, the polling momentum swung and most polls showed Remain in the lead.
In hindsight, that wasn't an actual change in opinion but it seemed a few people didn't like their names being associated with what was seen as a repulsive cause (and which many in the public eye criticised vehemently).
Because most of us find Trump repulsive, there is a tendency to assume others will too and that people will not therefore vote for him. We don’t understand why many love him. Nor do we understand that many will vote for him despite disliking him personally.
He has cleverly turned one of the criticisms made of him - that he does not follow conventions - into a strength by telling voters that he is there to serve them (unlike the conventional politicians). Regardless of whether it is true, it is an attractive message. And it may well work.
Sadly agree. Trump is going to win
A brave call! I said something equally arrogant (and wrong) on here in 2008 and it earned me the sobriquet Rogerdamus.
Yeah but that was just unlucky. I didn't think Obama would win either and told Mike so, but privately in an email - not first post up on the main thread! His price was obviously too big at 50/1 so I did get on but beat the Clinton machine? No, it was long while before I realised he was going the whole way.
Anyway your consolation is that you are immortalised in one of the best long-running jokes on PB. Long may it last. I have enjoyed it almost as much as the money.
Almost.
I think it was a bit more than just a wrong betting call to be fair. Mike's heading said something like 'Can Barack Obama at 50/1 become the first black President of the USA?' which made my 'No' sound a bit more arrogant than it otherwise would!
I think it was the lapidary certainty that did it. If you had elaborated a bit, perhaps hedging your bets as you went you'd have got away with it. Anyway I'm sure nobody took it that seriously. There have been far worse calls on this site.
Some people here even think Trump is going to be re-elected! Can you believe it?
There's no need for detailed analysis - Roger is a legend and should be proud of it.
While we wait on the US, I just want to praise Tim Farron. He has been very active fighting for the Lake District and its hospitality sector.
I wrote to him last night about this new rule about pubs not being able to sell takeaway alcohol and got a substantive reply this morning and confirmation that he’s written to the PM about it.
Meanwhile let’s see if Trudi Harrison, the MP in whose constituency we live, will respond. I doubt it - she is Boris’s PPS after all. Nice lady. But she’s been utterly feeble these past few months.
Has anybody provided a rationale for allowing pubs to sell takeaway food but not takeaway alcohol, which is, after all, their core business?
Not from government as far as I am aware.
It favours supermarkets over all other businesses selling alcohol, even when - as you rightly point out - it is their core business.
Commanding lead in Wales, I guess Drakeford isn't a disaster as many here claimed
At Westminster Starmer is the Labour leader and making gains in Wales relative to Corbyn in 2019, in Cardiff Bay Drakeford is Labour leader and projected to lose seats at the Assembly elections next year compared to what Carwyn Jones got in 2016 on the same poll
At the 2016 Welsh Assembly elections Labour got 29 seats and the Tories 11, on that link the Tories will get 16 seats in the 2021 elections ie up 5 on 2016 and Labour 28 ie down 1 on 2016 so the Tories will make gains next year at the Assembly elections and Labour under Drakeford will make a loss
Ah, so we're back to picking out parts of a poll you like.
At Westminster 43 to 30 something is a landslide
16 AMs for the Tories would be the highest number of Tory seats in the Welsh Assembly since its creation in 1999.
The Welsh Assembly election is next year and Drakeford is the Welsh Labour leader, the next Westminster election is not until 2024 and Starmer, not Drakeford, is the UK Labour leader
You either agree 43 to 30 something is a landslide or you don't
My comment was about Drakeford in Wales being a drag on the Welsh Labour vote, which he clearly is and will be at the Assembly elections next year, I never said Starmer was a drag on the UK Labour vote at UK general elections
The comment you literally responded to was about 43 to 30 at Westminster, that would be a landslide. You're not answering the point you responded to.
Even if Biden manages to finesse a win from this I confidently predict we haven't heard the last from Hunter. He's going to be an ongoing problem peddling access to his old man. He's going to be Billy Carter x Don Jr.
Paul Charles, who owns PC Agency, a travel consultancy, said that he was aware of up to 10,000 bookings since yesterday morning made by travellers seeking to escape the restrictions.
He said that retired people or those able to work remotely were seeking extended trips overseas. “Some are going to the Caribbean, some to the Maldives, to places that are much warmer and from where you don’t necessarily have to quarantine on your return.”
No surprise, I think Trump will win. I think his EV count will be marginally higher than last time so just below 320 but I wouldn't be surprised. I would expect him to hold all the states he won last time (although I would be nervous on Georgia - but I think he will benefit from a surge in white non-college voters) and flip the following (I have omitted Nevada given Ralston's view on the matter but gut feel is, given NV's reliance on tourism / events, there is a decent chance many independents ):
- New Hampshire - Minnesota
If I was looking for possible surprises where he might flip further Democrat states, I would be looking at those where there was quite a close vote last time, a decent white non-college educated percentage and also fairly decent 3rd party support in 2016. The three further I think he could flip are:
- Virginia - Colorado - New Mexico
Vote wise, I think the 45%+ being offered on Ladbrokes is a decent bet at 10/11 but my feeling is he will do more like 48-50% and possibly more. Before I am being accused of being on drugs, my rationale is the following:
- mainly, white non-college voters are going to come out to vote in unprecedented numbers which will simply not have been captured in the polling data, which will mainly base their samples on the 2016 splits. I mentioned on here about the data Ralston has been posting out of Nevada, with rural votes much higher than expected; - A turndown in Black turnout, which seems to be happening in most states with a few exceptions (e.g. Georgia). That is particularly an issue for the Democrats in the Rust Belt states; - Mobilisation of younger student voters being hit by campus closures / restrictions; - Hispanic vote turning more to Trump, and not just in the communities in FL.
If you don't think Trump will win, then (personally) I would be looking at bets that point to a close election as the EV data so far is not pointing to a blowout win for Biden. I think the 229.5+ Republican EC votes at Evens on Ladbrokes is a good one or the Biden 270-299 at 6/1
Commanding lead in Wales, I guess Drakeford isn't a disaster as many here claimed
At Westminster Starmer is the Labour leader and making gains in Wales relative to Corbyn in 2019, in Cardiff Bay Drakeford is Labour leader and projected to lose seats at the Assembly elections next year compared to what Carwyn Jones got in 2016 on the same poll
At the 2016 Welsh Assembly elections Labour got 29 seats and the Tories 11, on that link the Tories will get 16 seats in the 2021 elections ie up 5 on 2016 and Labour 28 ie down 1 on 2016 so the Tories will make gains next year at the Assembly elections and Labour under Drakeford will make a loss
Ah, so we're back to picking out parts of a poll you like.
At Westminster 43 to 30 something is a landslide
16 AMs for the Tories would be the highest number of Tory seats in the Welsh Assembly since its creation in 1999.
The Welsh Assembly election is next year and Drakeford is the Welsh Labour leader, the next Westminster election is not until 2024 and Starmer, not Drakeford, is the UK Labour leader
You either agree 43 to 30 something is a landslide or you don't
My comment was about Drakeford in Wales being a drag on the Welsh Labour vote, which he clearly is and will be at the Assembly elections next year, I never said Starmer was a drag on the UK Labour vote at UK general elections
The comment you literally responded to was about 43 to 30 at Westminster, that would be a landslide. You're not answering the point you responded to.
Is the irony of Trump and his supporters dancing along to the Village People lost on the Trumpsters?
Why is it ironic?
Because LGBT is clearly on the opposite side of the "culture war", and the Village People are camp AF.
There's no evidence Trump is anti-gay and they were just playing a song. I don't see the problem.
The way the left thinks they have a monopoly on anything possibly gay is just bizarre.
You see no evidence because you dont look for it, that is not the same as no evidence.
Just a few things under Trumps watch:
Refused visas to same sex partners of diplomats Blocked questions regarding sexual orientation from consideration for the census Eliminated information on LGBTQ rights, mentions, and representation on government websites
And as for his VP, this is what Trump himself said about Mike Pence's views on homosexuality - “Don’t ask that guy—he wants to hang them all!”
No evidence at all!
Why should sexual orientation be part of the census?
While here in the UK....
Census to ask about sexual orientation for the first time
Of course. I suppose not so bad on the voluntary question, but I still think it's odd just how much information some people are willing to share about themselves with the government.
Is there a category for "It's a lovely idea and if you're offering I'll consider it but it's mostly gardening magazines and tea in bed for me these days"?
While we wait on the US, I just want to praise Tim Farron. He has been very active fighting for the Lake District and its hospitality sector.
I wrote to him last night about this new rule about pubs not being able to sell takeaway alcohol and got a substantive reply this morning and confirmation that he’s written to the PM about it.
Meanwhile let’s see if Trudi Harrison, the MP in whose constituency we live, will respond. I doubt it - she is Boris’s PPS after all. Nice lady. But she’s been utterly feeble these past few months.
Has anybody provided a rationale for allowing pubs to sell takeaway food but not takeaway alcohol, which is, after all, their core business?
Not from government as far as I am aware.
It favours supermarkets over all other businesses selling alcohol, even when - as you rightly point out - it is their core business.
I mentioned the other day, that I was told by a local involved with the council and licensing, that the police had complained that several pubs were allowing selling over the wall to turn into out of control street parties.
The political problem with cracking down on this and leaving the sensible places open was that this would mean, essentially, shutting pubs isn the poor areas. While the posh places sold champagne over the wall.....
The Tweeting dude covers the Steelers for the local paper in Pittsburgh so it's going to be somewhere near Pittburgh I assume. Obviously he might commute from further but an educated guess would be suburban PIttsburgh. EDIT - I was right - North Fayette which is just outside Pittsburgh to the west -
No surprise, I think Trump will win. I think his EV count will be marginally higher than last time so just below 320 but I wouldn't be surprised. I would expect him to hold all the states he won last time (although I would be nervous on Georgia - but I think he will benefit from a surge in white non-college voters) and flip the following (I have omitted Nevada given Ralston's view on the matter but gut feel is, given NV's reliance on tourism / events, there is a decent chance many independents ):
- New Hampshire - Minnesota
If I was looking for possible surprises where he might flip further Democrat states, I would be looking at those where there was quite a close vote last time, a decent white non-college educated percentage and also fairly decent 3rd party support in 2016. The three further I think he could flip are:
- Virginia - Colorado - New Mexico
Vote wise, I think the 45%+ being offered on Ladbrokes is a decent bet at 10/11 but my feeling is he will do more like 48-50% and possibly more. Before I am being accused of being on drugs, my rationale is the following:
- mainly, white non-college voters are going to come out to vote in unprecedented numbers which will simply not have been captured in the polling data, which will mainly base their samples on the 2016 splits. I mentioned on here about the data Ralston has been posting out of Nevada, with rural votes much higher than expected; - A turndown in Black turnout, which seems to be happening in most states with a few exceptions (e.g. Georgia). That is particularly an issue for the Democrats in the Rust Belt states; - Mobilisation of younger student voters being hit by campus closures / restrictions; - Hispanic vote turning more to Trump, and not just in the communities in FL.
If you don't think Trump will win, then (personally) I would be looking at bets that point to a close election as the EV data so far is not pointing to a blowout win for Biden. I think the 229.5+ Republican EC votes at Evens on Ladbrokes is a good one or the Biden 270-299 at 6/1
This would have been an excellent post on the day of the 2016 election. Not so sure about 2020.
The Tweeting dude covers the Steelers for the local paper in Pittsburgh so it's going to be somewhere near Pittburgh I assume. Obviously he might commute from further but an educated guess would be suburban PIttsburgh
The picture looks more rural than suburban, at most the outer suburbs
If I was looking for possible surprises where he might flip further Democrat states, I would be looking at those where there was quite a close vote last time, a decent white non-college educated percentage and also fairly decent 3rd party support in 2016. The three further I think he could flip are:
The Tweeting dude covers the Steelers for the local paper in Pittsburgh so it's going to be somewhere near Pittburgh I assume. Obviously he might commute from further but an educated guess would be suburban PIttsburgh
The picture looks more rural than suburban, at most the outer suburbs
I am guessing you are assuming every last man jack of them is there to support Trump?
They might be but that is a bold assumption to make, particularly as Pennysylvania did not lend itself to early voting.
I am guessing most of them will be Trump voters, all the polling still shows rural voters comfortably preferring Trump and if so and they turnout en masse in the key swing states it could still be close
What is Dominic Cummings' opinion on Scottish Independence? If he wanted to push people towards it, that's a great way to go about it.
The PM's position is there will be no indyref2 allowed while he is PM, in any case they are still getting their furlough although in my view if Sturgeon or Drakeford do not impose a lockdown at the same time as the rest of the UK they should raise Scottish or Welsh taxes to pay for it
Furlough is a reserved matter. Why should Scottish or Welsh taxes go to subsidise an Enbglish lockdown when the reverse is not permitted?
Why should English taxpayers pay for Scottish and Welsh furlough when England is not in lockdown? The most sensible thing is for the whole UK and all 4 home nations to fully lockdown at the same time and get furlough at the same time otherwise stick to regional tiers
Sorry - missed your edit.
You do know that this is completely contrary to your party's policy over the last few months?
The one thing I didn't expect was HYUFD coming out as a full fiscal autonomist!
The best comment I have seen so far on the US Election - Biden has the better hand but Trump owns the casino.
Not a great analogy for what is claimed to be a functioning democracy.
There’s plenty Trump can’t control. Like those who put him in there by not voting Hillary last time, have stewed on that for four years and can’t wait to stand in a long queue to absolve themselves. Just the sheer size of this revolt against him.
While we wait on the US, I just want to praise Tim Farron. He has been very active fighting for the Lake District and its hospitality sector.
I wrote to him last night about this new rule about pubs not being able to sell takeaway alcohol and got a substantive reply this morning and confirmation that he’s written to the PM about it.
Meanwhile let’s see if Trudi Harrison, the MP in whose constituency we live, will respond. I doubt it - she is Boris’s PPS after all. Nice lady. But she’s been utterly feeble these past few months.
Has anybody provided a rationale for allowing pubs to sell takeaway food but not takeaway alcohol, which is, after all, their core business?
Not from government as far as I am aware.
It favours supermarkets over all other businesses selling alcohol, even when - as you rightly point out - it is their core business.
I mentioned the other day, that I was told by a local involved with the council and licensing, that the police had complained that several pubs were allowing selling over the wall to turn into out of control street parties.
The political problem with cracking down on this and leaving the sensible places open was that this would mean, essentially, shutting pubs isn the poor areas. While the posh places sold champagne over the wall.....
Why not shut both? I'm no instinctive authoritarian, but one problem with all this is that there has been no disincentive to breach or bend the rules. Giving a comparitive economic advantage to non Covid compliant establishments.
I am guessing you are assuming every last man jack of them is there to support Trump?
They might be but that is a bold assumption to make, particularly as Pennysylvania did not lend itself to early voting.
I am guessing most of them will be Trump voters, all the polling still shows rural voters comfortably preferring Trump and if so and they turnout en masse in the key swing states it could still be close
North Fayette is not really all that rural. Its a suburb of Pittsburgh, although clearly Republican leaning.
Can one of our US experts please educate me a little on this business of US Voter Registration?
I see Registered Voters can be GoP, Dem or Independent. But what difference does that make to the vote cast? How binding is it? If I register under one Party, surely I am not bound to vote for them.
I ask because I see that the GoP has been much more successful than the Dems in getting voter registrations since the election, but is that really significant is all they are doing is enabling voters of all persuasions to cast a vote when the time comes.
You can vote for anyone in GE/Senate etc, party affiliation at registration doesn't matter. Primaries it does since some states use that.
Thanks Yokes. So if I register as a Republican I am likely to vote for them, but not obliged to.
That's what I thought. It means I suspect that the big lead the GoP has in registrations is interesting but not decisive.
While we wait on the US, I just want to praise Tim Farron. He has been very active fighting for the Lake District and its hospitality sector.
I wrote to him last night about this new rule about pubs not being able to sell takeaway alcohol and got a substantive reply this morning and confirmation that he’s written to the PM about it.
Meanwhile let’s see if Trudi Harrison, the MP in whose constituency we live, will respond. I doubt it - she is Boris’s PPS after all. Nice lady. But she’s been utterly feeble these past few months.
Has anybody provided a rationale for allowing pubs to sell takeaway food but not takeaway alcohol, which is, after all, their core business?
Not from government as far as I am aware.
It favours supermarkets over all other businesses selling alcohol, even when - as you rightly point out - it is their core business.
I mentioned the other day, that I was told by a local involved with the council and licensing, that the police had complained that several pubs were allowing selling over the wall to turn into out of control street parties.
The political problem with cracking down on this and leaving the sensible places open was that this would mean, essentially, shutting pubs isn the poor areas. While the posh places sold champagne over the wall.....
So because the police won't enforce license conditions every pub - even those who comply with the terms of their licence - will suffer.
What is the effing point of having licence conditions, of having police if they won't do their bloody job, for Christ's sake?!
Indeed, why should good licensees like my daughter comply? She may as well do what she wants since rural policemen are like unicorns round here.
If it's not been said already, is the deal "Let me off criminal charges, and I will go quietly". He's just setting himself up a negotiating position.
Either that or he has a naive belief that all the judges he has appointed will be slaves to his will even after they have their sinecures. The Texas decisions imply that he is deluded in that respect.
Can one of our US experts please educate me a little on this business of US Voter Registration?
I see Registered Voters can be GoP, Dem or Independent. But what difference does that make to the vote cast? How binding is it? If I register under one Party, surely I am not bound to vote for them.
I ask because I see that the GoP has been much more successful than the Dems in getting voter registrations since the election, but is that really significant is all they are doing is enabling voters of all persuasions to cast a vote when the time comes.
You can vote for anyone in GE/Senate etc, party affiliation at registration doesn't matter. Primaries it does since some states use that.
Thanks Yokes. So if I register as a Republican I am likely to vote for them, but not obliged to.
That's what I thought. It means I suspect that the big lead the GoP has in registrations is interesting but not decisive.
A lot of it comes from re-registering in recent years voters who have for years been voting GOP from Democrat to Republican.
Imagine in the UK if someone registered as Labour when Tony Blair was Labour leader, voted for the Tories from Cameron onwards while still being registered Labour and now changed their registration from Labour to Tory - would that imply a change in votes next time?
No surprise, I think Trump will win. I think his EV count will be marginally higher than last time so just below 320 but I wouldn't be surprised. I would expect him to hold all the states he won last time (although I would be nervous on Georgia - but I think he will benefit from a surge in white non-college voters) and flip the following (I have omitted Nevada given Ralston's view on the matter but gut feel is, given NV's reliance on tourism / events, there is a decent chance many independents ):
- New Hampshire - Minnesota
If I was looking for possible surprises where he might flip further Democrat states, I would be looking at those where there was quite a close vote last time, a decent white non-college educated percentage and also fairly decent 3rd party support in 2016. The three further I think he could flip are:
- Virginia - Colorado - New Mexico
Vote wise, I think the 45%+ being offered on Ladbrokes is a decent bet at 10/11 but my feeling is he will do more like 48-50% and possibly more. Before I am being accused of being on drugs, my rationale is the following:
- mainly, white non-college voters are going to come out to vote in unprecedented numbers which will simply not have been captured in the polling data, which will mainly base their samples on the 2016 splits. I mentioned on here about the data Ralston has been posting out of Nevada, with rural votes much higher than expected; - A turndown in Black turnout, which seems to be happening in most states with a few exceptions (e.g. Georgia). That is particularly an issue for the Democrats in the Rust Belt states; - Mobilisation of younger student voters being hit by campus closures / restrictions; - Hispanic vote turning more to Trump, and not just in the communities in FL.
If you don't think Trump will win, then (personally) I would be looking at bets that point to a close election as the EV data so far is not pointing to a blowout win for Biden. I think the 229.5+ Republican EC votes at Evens on Ladbrokes is a good one or the Biden 270-299 at 6/1
So, you are 1948 believer (see my header a week or two ago)?
A week on Monday I am going onto a UK government webinar to explain what my company must do to prepare for transition exit 6 weeks later. Currently the UK government hasn't established what the trading arrangements will be, hasn't built the computer system we will need to use nor hired the customs and standards officials required. So I have no idea what they will tell us because they themselves have no idea.
You can imagine my bemusement when I see millions spaffed up against the wall on adverts telling me TIME IS RUNNING OUT and that I need to Check & Change arrangements that haven't yet been made. Not that it will be physically possible to switch said arrangements on should they unveil them tomorrow.
I never thought I'd get involved with international trade matters at my time of life....... I had pretty well nil when I was working, but one of my sons has asked me to do some digging for him, and I find that when I start 'making my inquiries' that the former Government website .gov uk has been withdrawn and replaced with 'great.gov.uk', as the logo So something has been done!
Hate to sound supportive of Johnson's lackeys. But there IS a website about post-Brexit trade arrangements and it HASN'T been rebranded https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-trade-agreements-with-non-eu-countries gives (very sketchy) details of which countries we'll DEFINITELY have trade deals with on Jan 1, whatever happens.
True it makes your point almost as well as you do: in my industry (clothing) those countries supply a staggering 1% of the clothes worn in this country. And, if you want to buy clothes from China or Bangladesh nothing's going to change from the rules that have applied for years anyway. Unless, of course you're on of the 30% of importers of clothes from those countries whose ships drop UK-bound stuff off at Hamburg, Rotterdam or somewhere else in the EU for onward transit to Britain. In which case no-one's got the foggiest idea what's going to happen. But come on: Johnson's only had 4.5 years to sort that out.
You'll be asking for an honest and competent Prime Minster next.
While we wait on the US, I just want to praise Tim Farron. He has been very active fighting for the Lake District and its hospitality sector.
I wrote to him last night about this new rule about pubs not being able to sell takeaway alcohol and got a substantive reply this morning and confirmation that he’s written to the PM about it.
Meanwhile let’s see if Trudi Harrison, the MP in whose constituency we live, will respond. I doubt it - she is Boris’s PPS after all. Nice lady. But she’s been utterly feeble these past few months.
Has anybody provided a rationale for allowing pubs to sell takeaway food but not takeaway alcohol, which is, after all, their core business?
Not from government as far as I am aware.
It favours supermarkets over all other businesses selling alcohol, even when - as you rightly point out - it is their core business.
I mentioned the other day, that I was told by a local involved with the council and licensing, that the police had complained that several pubs were allowing selling over the wall to turn into out of control street parties.
The political problem with cracking down on this and leaving the sensible places open was that this would mean, essentially, shutting pubs isn the poor areas. While the posh places sold champagne over the wall.....
Why not shut both? I'm no instinctive authoritarian, but one problem with all this is that there has been no disincentive to breach or bend the rules. Giving a comparitive economic advantage to non Covid compliant establishments.
Well, that is what they are doing - in effect.
Shades of when a certain Mayor of London banned booze on the Tube. Some people argued it was "unfair" that you could get a drink in First Class on the regular train (forgetting about the open-to-all-bar on all trains serving booze) ....
Everyone you're detecting is almost certainly infectious, and is detected in real time, so there's no tracing to do. In a city of 500k, that might mean enforcing isolation for 5,000 people. How hard is that in reality ?
.
I don't think it's right that everyone detected is almost certainly infectious?
If you use Abbott figures of: sensitivity (97.1%) and specificity (98.5%) on a population of 500k and assume 1% of population actually has the disease...
Then you get 4,855 true positives and 7,425 false positives = 40% chance person testing positive actually has disease.
It's clearly great news that you've got a big proportion of the infected into isolation, but you are probably falsely isolating a reasonable number of people.
Then test all those people with a positive with a PCR, and release them if it comes out negative.
"Release" ... yes
How much do you want to bet that the only way to get 90% isolation involves dragging people off the streets?
I guess those old plans fro interment without trial that Blair was interested in might come in handy.
Now that Boris Johnson has screwed over the Northern Irish I can think of no better way of him showing his love for Northern Ireland by introducing internment in Great Britain for those people who don't self isolate.
A week on Monday I am going onto a UK government webinar to explain what my company must do to prepare for transition exit 6 weeks later. Currently the UK government hasn't established what the trading arrangements will be, hasn't built the computer system we will need to use nor hired the customs and standards officials required. So I have no idea what they will tell us because they themselves have no idea.
You can imagine my bemusement when I see millions spaffed up against the wall on adverts telling me TIME IS RUNNING OUT and that I need to Check & Change arrangements that haven't yet been made. Not that it will be physically possible to switch said arrangements on should they unveil them tomorrow.
The pharmaceutical safety regulations are still outstanding for NI. The pharmaceutical companies are sitting there pulling their hair out currently. I imagine it is now too late to meet them even if decided today. Every time I see those bloody adverts I shout at the television how are they supposed to prepare?
Which is why despite the protests from hard Brexit frothers we will get a deal which continues along with the current open border arrangements we have now. It simply isn't possible to go WTO / Australia and the EU have known this for months.
They will create a compromise name for it - "UKEA Free Trade Area" or something, let Shagger choose his pig lipstick colour, and then we carry on as defacto members of the EEA/CU
Everyone you're detecting is almost certainly infectious, and is detected in real time, so there's no tracing to do. In a city of 500k, that might mean enforcing isolation for 5,000 people. How hard is that in reality ?
.
I don't think it's right that everyone detected is almost certainly infectious?
If you use Abbott figures of: sensitivity (97.1%) and specificity (98.5%) on a population of 500k and assume 1% of population actually has the disease...
Then you get 4,855 true positives and 7,425 false positives = 40% chance person testing positive actually has disease.
It's clearly great news that you've got a big proportion of the infected into isolation, but you are probably falsely isolating a reasonable number of people.
Then test all those people with a positive with a PCR, and release them if it comes out negative.
"Release" ... yes
How much do you want to bet that the only way to get 90% isolation involves dragging people off the streets?
I guess those old plans fro interment without trial that Blair was interested in might come in handy.
Now that Boris Johnson has screwed over the Northern Irish I can think of no better way of him showing his love for Northern Ireland by introducing internment in Great Britain for those people who don't self isolate.
A week on Monday I am going onto a UK government webinar to explain what my company must do to prepare for transition exit 6 weeks later. Currently the UK government hasn't established what the trading arrangements will be, hasn't built the computer system we will need to use nor hired the customs and standards officials required. So I have no idea what they will tell us because they themselves have no idea.
You can imagine my bemusement when I see millions spaffed up against the wall on adverts telling me TIME IS RUNNING OUT and that I need to Check & Change arrangements that haven't yet been made. Not that it will be physically possible to switch said arrangements on should they unveil them tomorrow.
The pharmaceutical safety regulations are still outstanding for NI. The pharmaceutical companies are sitting there pulling their hair out currently. I imagine it is now too late to meet them even if decided today. Every time I see those bloody adverts I shout at the television how are they supposed to prepare?
The Brexit ads on the car radio always elicit a string of obscenities from me. The kids find it highly amusing.
Comments
what's that all about? its a done deal, right?
You are right that increased registration does not directly transfer to increased votes, however over-performance in registrations can often be quite predictive of outcomes.
However, if Labour won 45% of the vote and Conservatives 54%, but Labour still got a clear majority of MPs (or vice versa) that would be a much closer analogy, and I doubt it would be sustainable.
As good a bleedin' guide as any....
Some people here even think Trump is going to be re-elected! Can you believe it?
https://twitter.com/brianschatz/status/1323495015331422208
Many people who originally registered as Democrats had become Republicans and voted Republican for years; the Republicans have in recent years mounted an effort to get these voters to change their affiliation, but it won't change their ballots.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_National_Assembly_for_Wales_election
In response to D'Alexander from my original post, I was very careful to incorporate "supporters" into my post. I don't claim to have seen any direct hostility from Donald Trump to the LGBT community. I am not so sure the vast majority of his supporters would be quite so accomodating. But it is right for D'Alexander to suggest I am stereotyping.
You do know that this is completely contrary to your party's policy over the last few months?
I guess it could be a very volatile day, either way.
You can imagine my bemusement when I see millions spaffed up against the wall on adverts telling me TIME IS RUNNING OUT and that I need to Check & Change arrangements that haven't yet been made. Not that it will be physically possible to switch said arrangements on should they unveil them tomorrow.
At Westminster 43 to 30 something is a landslide
Obviously because I'm awesome, we've already made plans. Good news for the rest of the EU.
The Welsh Assembly election is next year and Drakeford is the Welsh Labour leader, the next Westminster election is not until 2024 and Starmer, not Drakeford, is the UK Labour leader
By contrast, in 2020, in the US, it's conceivable that Biden could get 51% of the vote only to lose to Trump. And,as has been pointed out, there are much worse anomalies than that there. The Senate is more biased than the electoral college and the gerrymandered anomalies within state legislatures and congressional districts are staggering.
Republicans have become so obsessed with making it hard for Democrats to vote that they almost see stopping voting as an end in itself. It's deranged.
'mine's bigger than yours'
https://twitter.com/rayfitt1/status/1323593421748056066
The Republicans aren't fit for office until this ends and they stop trying to stop others from voting and instead start trying to win them over.
In fairness the story can now be told in full.
I was in front of my computer back in 2004 when an unexpected email arrived from a well-known political commentator with a similar hairstyle to me. It contained a YouTube link to a political speech, and the comment 'This guy is 50/1 to be next President. I think he might win. What do you think?'
I watched the video for about thirty seconds before replying succinctly: 'I'm not sure if it has escaped your attention but this man appears to be black' - to which I got a swift and similarly succinct reply: 'Very funny. Now listen to the whole speech and tell me what you think.'
It was of course Obama's famous speech to the Democrat National Convention, the one that really made him a credible Presidency candidate for the first time. It was my first acquaintance with the name and of course my next reply was a bit more considered:
'Yes I can see the guy is very talented. I can't see anybody stopping the Clinton machine but he's far to big at 50/1. I've had fifty with Hills [they were still taking my bets in those days] and I can always lay it off later. Thanks for the heads up.'
That led on to further bets and one of my most successful betting events ever, but I've bored you enough already. Back to Trump. I'll be happy to clear a monkey tomorrow, but if he goes I don't care if I don't make a brass farthing.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8906871/Shots-fired-near-synagogue-Vienna-police-say-major-operation-underway.html
great name too!
Ray Fittipaldo...
The Body Coach Joe Wicks confirms he is bringing back his popular online workouts three times a week during the second national lockdown
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-8909117/Joe-Wicks-bringing-online-exercise-classes-four-week-national-lockdown.html
as the logo.
So something has been done!
It favours supermarkets over all other businesses selling alcohol, even when - as you rightly point out - it is their core business.
Paul Charles, who owns PC Agency, a travel consultancy, said that he was aware of up to 10,000 bookings since yesterday morning made by travellers seeking to escape the restrictions.
He said that retired people or those able to work remotely were seeking extended trips overseas. “Some are going to the Caribbean, some to the Maldives, to places that are much warmer and from where you don’t necessarily have to quarantine on your return.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/airports-bustling-as-thousands-flee-coronavirus-lockdown-for-sun-hpz60lk8q
No surprise, I think Trump will win. I think his EV count will be marginally higher than last time so just below 320 but I wouldn't be surprised. I would expect him to hold all the states he won last time (although I would be nervous on Georgia - but I think he will benefit from a surge in white non-college voters) and flip the following (I have omitted Nevada given Ralston's view on the matter but gut feel is, given NV's reliance on tourism / events, there is a decent chance many independents ):
- New Hampshire
- Minnesota
If I was looking for possible surprises where he might flip further Democrat states, I would be looking at those where there was quite a close vote last time, a decent white non-college educated percentage and also fairly decent 3rd party support in 2016. The three further I think he could flip are:
- Virginia
- Colorado
- New Mexico
Vote wise, I think the 45%+ being offered on Ladbrokes is a decent bet at 10/11 but my feeling is he will do more like 48-50% and possibly more. Before I am being accused of being on drugs, my rationale is the following:
- mainly, white non-college voters are going to come out to vote in unprecedented numbers which will simply not have been captured in the polling data, which will mainly base their samples on the 2016 splits. I mentioned on here about the data Ralston has been posting out of Nevada, with rural votes much higher than expected;
- A turndown in Black turnout, which seems to be happening in most states with a few exceptions (e.g. Georgia). That is particularly an issue for the Democrats in the Rust Belt states;
- Mobilisation of younger student voters being hit by campus closures / restrictions;
- Hispanic vote turning more to Trump, and not just in the communities in FL.
If you don't think Trump will win, then (personally) I would be looking at bets that point to a close election as the EV data so far is not pointing to a blowout win for Biden. I think the 229.5+ Republican EC votes at Evens on Ladbrokes is a good one or the Biden 270-299 at 6/1
The political problem with cracking down on this and leaving the sensible places open was that this would mean, essentially, shutting pubs isn the poor areas. While the posh places sold champagne over the wall.....
https://twitter.com/rayfitt1/status/1323603403759648776
Or, in this case, the fat bloke with the lady's hair.
They might be but that is a bold assumption to make, particularly as Pennysylvania did not lend itself to early voting.
https://twitter.com/rayfitt1/status/1323603403759648776
The one thing I didn't expect was HYUFD coming out as a full fiscal autonomist!
I'm no instinctive authoritarian, but one problem with all this is that there has been no disincentive to breach or bend the rules.
Giving a comparitive economic advantage to non Covid compliant establishments.
People are bonkers. We've been through this last spring - there isn't going to be food shortages in the next 28 days.
That's what I thought. It means I suspect that the big lead the GoP has in registrations is interesting but not decisive.
What is the effing point of having licence conditions, of having police if they won't do their bloody job, for Christ's sake?!
Indeed, why should good licensees like my daughter comply? She may as well do what she wants since rural policemen are like unicorns round here.
Either that or he has a naive belief that all the judges he has appointed will be slaves to his will even after they have their sinecures. The Texas decisions imply that he is deluded in that respect.
Imagine in the UK if someone registered as Labour when Tony Blair was Labour leader, voted for the Tories from Cameron onwards while still being registered Labour and now changed their registration from Labour to Tory - would that imply a change in votes next time?
got to the polls at 615, was 25th in line polls opened at 7 and was done by 720
Probably over 200 people in line when I Ieft
as the logo
So something has been done!
Hate to sound supportive of Johnson's lackeys.
But there IS a website about post-Brexit trade arrangements and it HASN'T been rebranded
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-trade-agreements-with-non-eu-countries gives (very sketchy) details of which countries we'll DEFINITELY have trade deals with on Jan 1, whatever happens.
True it makes your point almost as well as you do: in my industry (clothing) those countries supply a staggering 1% of the clothes worn in this country.
And, if you want to buy clothes from China or Bangladesh nothing's going to change from the rules that have applied for years anyway. Unless, of course you're on of the 30% of importers of clothes from those countries whose ships drop UK-bound stuff off at Hamburg, Rotterdam or somewhere else in the EU for onward transit to Britain. In which case no-one's got the foggiest idea what's going to happen.
But come on: Johnson's only had 4.5 years to sort that out.
You'll be asking for an honest and competent Prime Minster next.
Shades of when a certain Mayor of London banned booze on the Tube. Some people argued it was "unfair" that you could get a drink in First Class on the regular train (forgetting about the open-to-all-bar on all trains serving booze) ....
And I think we'll be saying good riddance to the fat bloke.
They will create a compromise name for it - "UKEA Free Trade Area" or something, let Shagger choose his pig lipstick colour, and then we carry on as defacto members of the EEA/CU