The Trump Presidency – are we about to start the end days? – politicalbetting.com

Alanbrooke said:

LostPassword said:

I'm not seeing positives when I look at Trump's Middle East foreign policy.
1. He's been utterly craven in the face of authoritarian leaders, as in general.
2. Betrayed US allies the Kurds to Erdogan who had done so much of the ground fighting against IS.
3. Failed to ensure that Saudi Arabia paid a price for the brutal murder of a journalist.
4. Ceded influence in the region to Russia.
5. Further eroded Palestinian trust in the US as an honest broker by moving the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
6. Tore up the deal with Iran solely because it was an Obama achievement.

I'm no fan of US foreign policy over the decades, far from it, but there's no basis to say that he made things at all better.

The positives depend on your perspective. If the US is no longer needing ME oil, then why get involved in a cesspit that eats your citizens money and lives. China and Europe depend more on ME oil so they should do their own police work.

If the US had simply disengaged that would be one thing, but Trump has made active interventions in the Middle East that have made the situation worse, even if those interventions didn't involve armoured divisions.

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

kamski said:

Thoughts on Biden:

1) If, back in April when it was clear he would be the nominee, you'd offered me Biden being 8.4% ahead in the 538 national polling average on the eve of the election, I would have happily taken it.
2) Warren, who was once front-runner, would in some ways have made a much better president. I have no idea if she would do better or worse than Biden against Trump. However, it might be that the Democrats have a better chance of taking the Senate with Biden running - I would take President Biden + Dem Senate over President Warren and Republican Senate.
3) For me, the Hunter Biden influence peddling is a much worse "scandal" than Hillary Clinton using a private email server. It might be all legal, but it is legalised corruption, and it's a shame the Democrats couldn't find a candidate with a totally clean contrast with Trump's nepotism, conflict of interests, and general gangsterism. On the other hand, I'm happy that the media weren't as obsessed with Hunter Biden as they were last time with Hillary's emails.

I know nothing about Hunter Biden's shenanigans but If you watched the BBC 2 3 part prog on Trump whatever he did was unlikely to have been as corrupt as Guiliani and Trumps attempts at 'persuading' the Ukrainian leader to dig the dirt on him or their attempts afterwards to cover their tracks by removing the whisleblower. Guiliani is amoral and poisonous

You really need to read up on Hunter Biden Roger. Makes Trump look angelic.

Hunter Biden might have been a significant story were it not for the Covid-19 pandemic and if the KGB had devised a more convincing provenance for the laptop. If you want to know what was on it, you've got two days before the lockdown to fly to Russia and watch Hunter's sex tapes.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13086776/hunter-biden-sex-videos-russia/

Alanbrooke said:

MarqueeMark said:

Anabobazina said:

Jonathan said:

Charles said:

Jonathan said:

Charles said:

Gaussian said:

Biden has had a really grey campaign, hasn't he? Seems the only memorable moment was "Will you shut up man", and that was five weeks ago.

How about his suggestion that black people who voted for Trump weren't really African Americans?

Curious why you are sympathetic to Trump.

I'm not. He's a carnival barker and wannabe strongman.

But Biden is everything I dislike about machine politicians. And I suspect he's as corrupt AF (although not notably more than most American politicians)

Who would you vote for Trump or Biden? Sounds like your a Trump voter.

Marquee, Charles and Alanbrooke are all Trumptons I think.

Fuck off am I a "Trumpton". Wouldn't have voted for either Trump or Clinton in 2016, wouldn't vote for either Trmp or Biden in 2020.

Trump does not deserve a second term. Biden does not deserve a first. Biden is very, very lucky to be up against Trump. Against any other Republican, he barely wins 200 EC votes.

I expect him to be President by this time tomorrow.

I do not expect him to serve a full term.

I wouldnt get too excited, Anabobazina is just one of those people who feels the need to conform to herd thinking. The funniest moment of the campaign was when John Lydon wrongfooted the hysteria and said he was voting Trump.

Pretty sure you’re part of a different herd with its own set of predictable opinions.

nico679 said:

stjohn said:

A big uncertainty for me is the apparently huge amount of additional Registered Voters this election. How many are there? What % increase on last time? How come? How do they split on party lines? Is it all legit?

It seems likely that the vast majority of Registered Voters will vote so if the numbers have truly gone up as much as is suggested then 160 million + votes does seem to be likely.

Those who didn’t vote in 2016 and those who chose third party candidates then are breaking heavily for Biden . The Reps have narrowed the gap in voter registration in the swing states but this could be previous non affiliated who supported Trump in 2016.

In terms of independents Biden is currently winning those although in the current polarization it’s hard to believe there’s really any true independent voters out there.

nico. When you say the Republicans have narrowed the gap in voter registration in the swing states, do you mean there are proportionately more Republicans than Democrats registered to vote in the swing states in 2020 compared with 2016? If so, that could be hugely significant and could explain why Trump’s price is holding up in the betting.

rottenborough said:

Nigelb said:

Texas results will start coming in very early:
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/30/texas-election-night/
The vast majority of the votes in Texas will be cast before Election Day. In 2016, 73% of votes were cast early. This year, that share could be higher. Most counties will report their early votes in one big batch, within about an hour of when the polls close...

Polls close at 7pm Central time (except for a few counties an hour later), which is 1pm our time, I think.

1am?

Yes, of course.

rottenborough said:

Trump seems to have shortened on BF overnight. Have I missed something?

Probably due to Nate Silver's (pbuh) last-minute hedging.

rottenborough said:

Trump seems to have shortened on BF overnight. Have I missed something?

Don't follow the markets.

I expect Trump to be shorter than that at some point in the next 24 hours.

not_on_fire said:

Roger said:

kamski said:

Thoughts on Biden:

1) If, back in April when it was clear he would be the nominee, you'd offered me Biden being 8.4% ahead in the 538 national polling average on the eve of the election, I would have happily taken it.
2) Warren, who was once front-runner, would in some ways have made a much better president. I have no idea if she would do better or worse than Biden against Trump. However, it might be that the Democrats have a better chance of taking the Senate with Biden running - I would take President Biden + Dem Senate over President Warren and Republican Senate.
3) For me, the Hunter Biden influence peddling is a much worse "scandal" than Hillary Clinton using a private email server. It might be all legal, but it is legalised corruption, and it's a shame the Democrats couldn't find a candidate with a totally clean contrast with Trump's nepotism, conflict of interests, and general gangsterism. On the other hand, I'm happy that the media weren't as obsessed with Hunter Biden as they were last time with Hillary's emails.

I know nothing about Hunter Biden's shenanigans but If you watched the BBC 2 3 part prog on Trump whatever he did was unlikely to have been as corrupt as Guiliani and Trumps attempts at 'persuading' the Ukrainian leader to dig the dirt on him or their attempts afterwards to cover their tracks by removing the whisleblower. Guiliani is amoral and poisonous

Is there any provable link between what Hunter Biden did (or may have done) and his father? If not, why should he be accountable for the actions of his adult son?

Sure, but the whole thing doesn't exactly smell of roses:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-54553132

Joining the board of Burisma while his father was vice-president was obviously wrong. If we care about Trump and family's multiple conflicts of interests, then we should care about this too. Trump is obviously orders of magnitude worse, but the Democrats should be able to be really clear and clean on these issues.

noneoftheabove said:

Scott_xP said:

How else can BoZo and chums screw up the latest lockdown?

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1323527178773008384

Golf is 60 hectares of outdoor space and about 100 people. Short of visiting Outer Hebrides I am not sure how to be more socially distanced in the UK.

There's solo microlight flying, or paramotoring, or paragliding, all of which are also off the cards.

Anabobazina said:

Charles said:

nichomar said:

Every republican they have on Sky news is a repulsive lizard with no insight, most look like spivs and appear to be thicker than pig shit. They really are scared.

Indeed, and every democrat they have on CNN is a screeching harpy.

Truly we are blessed in this time, the end of times

Wow. With its regular dockside analogies and this sort of stuff, it’s hard to grasp why PB attracts so few women to the site.

Women aren't allowed to be coarse?

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

rottenborough said:

Ex minister: "[Johnson's] just seen as a dead duck, and every time they fail to deliver they just double down with a bigger promise."

Telegraph blog

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1323541830428954624

The piece is worth reading in full:

https://thecritic.co.uk/whole-lotta-lockdown/

One of the great skills in opposition is to work out what the government is going to do, and then call for it first. And you don’t have to get out of bed very early to get ahead of this government. Simply making a cup of coffee in your dressing gown gives you a strategic advantage.

Johnson was on his feet for two and a quarter hours, and almost none of the Tory MPs who asked him questions offered wholehearted support to their leader.

The prime minister made little effort to take on the critics behind him. This may have been an effort to be conciliatory, but it left the impression that he felt more at the mercy of events than their master. “It is only 28 days,” he said at one point.

A prime minister with a majority of 80 is disappearing before our eyes, unable to defend his appointees, his decisions or his policies, despised by his own side and opposition alike. It is all so terribly difficult, being in government. If only someone had warned him.

Once Brexit is secured, Biden is elected and a vaccine is imminent then Boris has outlived his usefulness. The data is now starting to show him to be a liability with his GE2019 voters too.

Then ditching him becomes the logical thing to do with the next big challenge - IndyRef2 - where him going may help save the Union.

I'm thinking someone moderate who can build bridges with the US and EU, who's largely untainted by Brexit, who can govern competently for the whole Union, who understands health and who will not scare the horses.

I'm thinking Hunt.

kle4 said:

not_on_fire said:

nichomar said:

What happens if London Bridge falls down in the next four weeks?

huh?

Code for Her Majesty passing away i think.

It would never happen in an ideal world but I wonder if next year she should effectively retire/abdicate and hand over to Charles to be coronated in 2022.

She's 95. She's done enough - more than anyone ever has. And I think she deserves to enjoy the last few years of her life with her husband in peace.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323548300847493122

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:

edmundintokyo said:

Whatever you think of the whole "return America to a mythical bygone age of decency" schtick, you have to admit Biden's team have played that hand flawlessly. Dixville Notch Republican endorsing Biden:

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1323471920117985280

From a very obvious autocue, more like.

Words being scripted doesn't necessarily mean they aren't heartfelt though.

The general sentiment, yes, but that was a bit too obvious. It needs a personal touch otherwise you can smell it a mile away.

It's clearly a script he's agreed to read out by the Dems/Lincoln Project which makes it seem less sincere.

Cyclefree said:

DavidL said:

Charles said:

Mysticrose said:

IanB2 said:

One can only hope tonight will be the turning of many corners,

It's really interesting. I have a lot of friends on the right, some of them ardent Conservatives and Boris fans, who are equally strongly cheering for Joe Biden.

It’s interesting

Biden is weak and will be a mediocre President as well

Trump has been quite effective at foreign policy certainly vs Obama

But if he is re-elected it will be a sign than rampant cronyism is acceptable.

So, despite his manifold weaknesses, it should be Biden

Hopefully only for a year or two. President Harris has a lot more potential. The Democrats came seriously close to screwing this up again this year but Covid limitations on campaigning have done them a considerable favour. In contrast Trump has shown again what he is capable of as a campaigner in the last week or so. Had he had another couple of months of that he would probably have won.

He may still win. I’m not at all confident that he will lose.

It's time for ByeDon.

stjohn said:

nico679 said:

stjohn said:

A big uncertainty for me is the apparently huge amount of additional Registered Voters this election. How many are there? What % increase on last time? How come? How do they split on party lines? Is it all legit?

It seems likely that the vast majority of Registered Voters will vote so if the numbers have truly gone up as much as is suggested then 160 million + votes does seem to be likely.

Those who didn’t vote in 2016 and those who chose third party candidates then are breaking heavily for Biden . The Reps have narrowed the gap in voter registration in the swing states but this could be previous non affiliated who supported Trump in 2016.

In terms of independents Biden is currently winning those although in the current polarization it’s hard to believe there’s really any true independent voters out there.

nico. When you say the Republicans have narrowed the gap in voter registration in the swing states, do you mean there are proportionately more Republicans than Democrats registered to vote in the swing states in 2020 compared with 2016? If so, that could be hugely significant and could explain why Trump’s price is holding up in the betting.

Would it? The newly-registered Republicans were presumably already Trump voters.

Casino_Royale said:

Once Brexit is secured, Biden is elected and a vaccine is imminent then Boris has outlived his usefulness.

Biden is the most likely. The Vaccine will come at some point, but may not be a panacea. Brexit is a shitshow, delivered or otherwise.

Andy_Cooke said:

noneoftheabove said:

Scott_xP said:

How else can BoZo and chums screw up the latest lockdown?

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1323527178773008384

Golf is 60 hectares of outdoor space and about 100 people. Short of visiting Outer Hebrides I am not sure how to be more socially distanced in the UK.

There's solo microlight flying, or paramotoring, or paragliding, all of which are also off the cards.

Unless you are on your way to work

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

rottenborough said:

Ex minister: "[Johnson's] just seen as a dead duck, and every time they fail to deliver they just double down with a bigger promise."

Telegraph blog

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1323541830428954624

The piece is worth reading in full:

https://thecritic.co.uk/whole-lotta-lockdown/

One of the great skills in opposition is to work out what the government is going to do, and then call for it first. And you don’t have to get out of bed very early to get ahead of this government. Simply making a cup of coffee in your dressing gown gives you a strategic advantage.

Johnson was on his feet for two and a quarter hours, and almost none of the Tory MPs who asked him questions offered wholehearted support to their leader.

The prime minister made little effort to take on the critics behind him. This may have been an effort to be conciliatory, but it left the impression that he felt more at the mercy of events than their master. “It is only 28 days,” he said at one point.

A prime minister with a majority of 80 is disappearing before our eyes, unable to defend his appointees, his decisions or his policies, despised by his own side and opposition alike. It is all so terribly difficult, being in government. If only someone had warned him.

Once Brexit is secured, Biden is elected and a vaccine is imminent then Boris has outlived his usefulness. The data is now starting to show him to be a liability with his GE2019 voters too.

Then ditching him becomes the logical thing to do with the next big challenge - IndyRef2 - where him going may help save the Union.

I'm thinking someone moderate who can build bridges with the US and EU, who's largely untainted by Brexit, who can govern competently for the whole Union, who understands health and who will not scare the horses.

I'm thinking Hunt.

Are.

The data are now starting to show.

But same question to you as to on the bus off the bus Big G - why wait? He is a solipsistic, ineffective, useless twat. Why wait to get rid of him?

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

rottenborough said:

Ex minister: "[Johnson's] just seen as a dead duck, and every time they fail to deliver they just double down with a bigger promise."

Telegraph blog

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1323541830428954624

The piece is worth reading in full:

https://thecritic.co.uk/whole-lotta-lockdown/

One of the great skills in opposition is to work out what the government is going to do, and then call for it first. And you don’t have to get out of bed very early to get ahead of this government. Simply making a cup of coffee in your dressing gown gives you a strategic advantage.

Johnson was on his feet for two and a quarter hours, and almost none of the Tory MPs who asked him questions offered wholehearted support to their leader.

The prime minister made little effort to take on the critics behind him. This may have been an effort to be conciliatory, but it left the impression that he felt more at the mercy of events than their master. “It is only 28 days,” he said at one point.

A prime minister with a majority of 80 is disappearing before our eyes, unable to defend his appointees, his decisions or his policies, despised by his own side and opposition alike. It is all so terribly difficult, being in government. If only someone had warned him.

.. then Boris has outlived his usefulness.

I must have missed that earlier bit

He won the election, in dominating fashion, that's pretty useful to a Tory mp.

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

kamski said:

Thoughts on Biden:

1) If, back in April when it was clear he would be the nominee, you'd offered me Biden being 8.4% ahead in the 538 national polling average on the eve of the election, I would have happily taken it.
2) Warren, who was once front-runner, would in some ways have made a much better president. I have no idea if she would do better or worse than Biden against Trump. However, it might be that the Democrats have a better chance of taking the Senate with Biden running - I would take President Biden + Dem Senate over President Warren and Republican Senate.
3) For me, the Hunter Biden influence peddling is a much worse "scandal" than Hillary Clinton using a private email server. It might be all legal, but it is legalised corruption, and it's a shame the Democrats couldn't find a candidate with a totally clean contrast with Trump's nepotism, conflict of interests, and general gangsterism. On the other hand, I'm happy that the media weren't as obsessed with Hunter Biden as they were last time with Hillary's emails.

I know nothing about Hunter Biden's shenanigans but If you watched the BBC 2 3 part prog on Trump whatever he did was unlikely to have been as corrupt as Guiliani and Trumps attempts at 'persuading' the Ukrainian leader to dig the dirt on him or their attempts afterwards to cover their tracks by removing the whisleblower. Guiliani is amoral and poisonous

You really need to read up on Hunter Biden Roger. Makes Trump look angelic.

Even if that were true, which it isn't, Hunter Biden isn't running for President, and Donald Trump is.

Casino_Royale said:

Once Brexit is secured, Biden is elected and a vaccine is imminent then Boris has outlived his usefulness. The data is now starting to show him to be a liability with his GE2019 voters too.

Then ditching him becomes the logical thing to do with the next big challenge - IndyRef2 - where him going may help save the Union.

I'm thinking someone moderate who can build bridges with the US and EU, who's largely untainted by Brexit, who can govern competently for the whole Union, who understands health and who will not scare the horses.

I'm thinking Hunt.

That would require the Tories to effectively admit that they made massive mistake in electing Johnson. Now obviously everyone can see they made a mistake, but do political types like admitting mistakes?

kle4 said:

He won the election, in dominating fashion, that's pretty useful to a Tory mp.

It's useful to a Brexit MP

It's no use to a Conservative and Unionist MP, in fact it's positively toxic.

https://twitter.com/Fhamiltontimes/status/1323558003191271425

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

rottenborough said:

Ex minister: "[Johnson's] just seen as a dead duck, and every time they fail to deliver they just double down with a bigger promise."

Telegraph blog

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1323541830428954624

The piece is worth reading in full:

https://thecritic.co.uk/whole-lotta-lockdown/

One of the great skills in opposition is to work out what the government is going to do, and then call for it first. And you don’t have to get out of bed very early to get ahead of this government. Simply making a cup of coffee in your dressing gown gives you a strategic advantage.

Johnson was on his feet for two and a quarter hours, and almost none of the Tory MPs who asked him questions offered wholehearted support to their leader.

The prime minister made little effort to take on the critics behind him. This may have been an effort to be conciliatory, but it left the impression that he felt more at the mercy of events than their master. “It is only 28 days,” he said at one point.

A prime minister with a majority of 80 is disappearing before our eyes, unable to defend his appointees, his decisions or his policies, despised by his own side and opposition alike. It is all so terribly difficult, being in government. If only someone had warned him.

Once Brexit is secured, Biden is elected and a vaccine is imminent then Boris has outlived his usefulness. The data is now starting to show him to be a liability with his GE2019 voters too.

Then ditching him becomes the logical thing to do with the next big challenge - IndyRef2 - where him going may help save the Union.

I'm thinking someone moderate who can build bridges with the US and EU, who's largely untainted by Brexit, who can govern competently for the whole Union, who understands health and who will not scare the horses.

I'm thinking Hunt.

Are.

The data are now starting to show.

But same question to you as to on the bus off the bus Big G - why wait? He is a solipsistic, ineffective, useless twat. Why wait to get rid of him?

Unless you want to guarantee a crash out No Deal end to transition there simy isn't time to replace him this year.

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

rottenborough said:

Ex minister: "[Johnson's] just seen as a dead duck, and every time they fail to deliver they just double down with a bigger promise."

Telegraph blog

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1323541830428954624

The piece is worth reading in full:

https://thecritic.co.uk/whole-lotta-lockdown/

One of the great skills in opposition is to work out what the government is going to do, and then call for it first. And you don’t have to get out of bed very early to get ahead of this government. Simply making a cup of coffee in your dressing gown gives you a strategic advantage.

Johnson was on his feet for two and a quarter hours, and almost none of the Tory MPs who asked him questions offered wholehearted support to their leader.

The prime minister made little effort to take on the critics behind him. This may have been an effort to be conciliatory, but it left the impression that he felt more at the mercy of events than their master. “It is only 28 days,” he said at one point.

A prime minister with a majority of 80 is disappearing before our eyes, unable to defend his appointees, his decisions or his policies, despised by his own side and opposition alike. It is all so terribly difficult, being in government. If only someone had warned him.

.. then Boris has outlived his usefulness.

I must have missed that earlier bit

You have to see it from a Tory point of view: he's there to legitimate the final Brexit deal and because of his supposed electoral Midas touch.

Without either of those he is nothing.

glw said:

Casino_Royale said:

Once Brexit is secured, Biden is elected and a vaccine is imminent then Boris has outlived his usefulness. The data is now starting to show him to be a liability with his GE2019 voters too.

Then ditching him becomes the logical thing to do with the next big challenge - IndyRef2 - where him going may help save the Union.

I'm thinking someone moderate who can build bridges with the US and EU, who's largely untainted by Brexit, who can govern competently for the whole Union, who understands health and who will not scare the horses.

I'm thinking Hunt.

That would require the Tories to effectively admit that they made massive mistake in electing Johnson. Now obviously everyone can see they made a mistake, but do political types like admitting mistakes?

Electing Johnson wasn't a mistake, the 2019 election result shows that.

Whether Johnson is the right man for another election is another question.

Cyclefree said:

edmundintokyo said:

Northern_Al said:

Contrary to popular wisdom, this time round the silent majority is against Trump. The pollsters haven't quite spotted the extent of this (and nor have the gamblers). There's no great love for Biden, but people are fearful of another 4 years of Trump, and fearful of Covid. Apart from the Trumpsters, most Americans now think he's mad and dangerous and it's time for him to go.

Not saying you're wrong, but if it's there why don't you think the pollsters can see it?

I wonder whether there aren’t in reality a lot of shy Trump voters.

I think there are but not enough to win.

Without Covid and with a good economy I think he would win though. Some minority Americans have moved toward him but what's killing him is the older whites he's lost and women over Covid and his blabber.

People will put up with blabber if the economy is good and the country largely peaceful.

Biden is down by a couple of points on Sporting's ECV spread-betting market this morning where his current quote is 307-313, Trump meanwhile is at 225-231. After Biden gained some ground about 4 weeks ago, it's remarkable how stable this market has been since.
It will be interesting to see in which direction these spreads move and to what extent when the very first results are announced.

glw said:

Casino_Royale said:

Once Brexit is secured, Biden is elected and a vaccine is imminent then Boris has outlived his usefulness. The data is now starting to show him to be a liability with his GE2019 voters too.

Then ditching him becomes the logical thing to do with the next big challenge - IndyRef2 - where him going may help save the Union.

I'm thinking someone moderate who can build bridges with the US and EU, who's largely untainted by Brexit, who can govern competently for the whole Union, who understands health and who will not scare the horses.

I'm thinking Hunt.

That would require the Tories to effectively admit that they made massive mistake in electing Johnson. Now obviously everyone can see they made a mistake, but do political types like admitting mistakes?

Political types will do what's needed to save their seats and careers and work out the mental gymnastics later.

Anyone else having problems placing bets on Betfair ?

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

rottenborough said:

Ex minister: "[Johnson's] just seen as a dead duck, and every time they fail to deliver they just double down with a bigger promise."

Telegraph blog

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1323541830428954624

The piece is worth reading in full:

https://thecritic.co.uk/whole-lotta-lockdown/

One of the great skills in opposition is to work out what the government is going to do, and then call for it first. And you don’t have to get out of bed very early to get ahead of this government. Simply making a cup of coffee in your dressing gown gives you a strategic advantage.

Johnson was on his feet for two and a quarter hours, and almost none of the Tory MPs who asked him questions offered wholehearted support to their leader.

The prime minister made little effort to take on the critics behind him. This may have been an effort to be conciliatory, but it left the impression that he felt more at the mercy of events than their master. “It is only 28 days,” he said at one point.

A prime minister with a majority of 80 is disappearing before our eyes, unable to defend his appointees, his decisions or his policies, despised by his own side and opposition alike. It is all so terribly difficult, being in government. If only someone had warned him.

Once Brexit is secured, Biden is elected and a vaccine is imminent then Boris has outlived his usefulness. The data is now starting to show him to be a liability with his GE2019 voters too.

Then ditching him becomes the logical thing to do with the next big challenge - IndyRef2 - where him going may help save the Union.

I'm thinking someone moderate who can build bridges with the US and EU, who's largely untainted by Brexit, who can govern competently for the whole Union, who understands health and who will not scare the horses.

I'm thinking Hunt.

Are.

The data are now starting to show.

But same question to you as to on the bus off the bus Big G - why wait? He is a solipsistic, ineffective, useless twat. Why wait to get rid of him?

I've wanted him gone for months and originally voted for Hunt, as you'd know if you'd read my posts.

I'm postulating how the Tory party will see it and when they'll move.

I think that's Spring/locals next year.

glw said:

Casino_Royale said:

Once Brexit is secured, Biden is elected and a vaccine is imminent then Boris has outlived his usefulness. The data is now starting to show him to be a liability with his GE2019 voters too.

Then ditching him becomes the logical thing to do with the next big challenge - IndyRef2 - where him going may help save the Union.

I'm thinking someone moderate who can build bridges with the US and EU, who's largely untainted by Brexit, who can govern competently for the whole Union, who understands health and who will not scare the horses.

I'm thinking Hunt.

That would require the Tories to effectively admit that they made massive mistake in electing Johnson. Now obviously everyone can see they made a mistake, but do political types like admitting mistakes?

If there is one thing the Tories are good at it is replacing leaders when they have outlived their usefulness.

Scott_xP said:

Casino_Royale said:

You have to see it from a Tory point of view: he's there to legitimate the final Brexit deal and because of his supposed electoral Midas touch.

Without either of those he is nothing.

Again, that's a Brexit point of view.

From a Conservative and Unionist point of view, he's a liability.

That's WHY he became party leader - you might not like that fact (I certainly didn't) but that was certainly the rationale.

He won't be going anywhere until there is a Brexit deal, because otherwise one wing would cry blue murder.

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

rottenborough said:

Ex minister: "[Johnson's] just seen as a dead duck, and every time they fail to deliver they just double down with a bigger promise."

Telegraph blog

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1323541830428954624

The piece is worth reading in full:

https://thecritic.co.uk/whole-lotta-lockdown/

One of the great skills in opposition is to work out what the government is going to do, and then call for it first. And you don’t have to get out of bed very early to get ahead of this government. Simply making a cup of coffee in your dressing gown gives you a strategic advantage.

Johnson was on his feet for two and a quarter hours, and almost none of the Tory MPs who asked him questions offered wholehearted support to their leader.

The prime minister made little effort to take on the critics behind him. This may have been an effort to be conciliatory, but it left the impression that he felt more at the mercy of events than their master. “It is only 28 days,” he said at one point.

A prime minister with a majority of 80 is disappearing before our eyes, unable to defend his appointees, his decisions or his policies, despised by his own side and opposition alike. It is all so terribly difficult, being in government. If only someone had warned him.

.. then Boris has outlived his usefulness.

I must have missed that earlier bit

You have to see it from a Tory point of view: he's there to legitimate the final Brexit deal and because of his supposed electoral Midas touch.

Without either of those he is nothing.

More likely he's there to take the rap for both - a bad Brexit and dreadful local elections.

Mr. Urquhart, is that true?

They let May linger on far too long then replaced her with the only candidate who would be worse.

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

rottenborough said:

Ex minister: "[Johnson's] just seen as a dead duck, and every time they fail to deliver they just double down with a bigger promise."

Telegraph blog

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1323541830428954624

The piece is worth reading in full:

https://thecritic.co.uk/whole-lotta-lockdown/

One of the great skills in opposition is to work out what the government is going to do, and then call for it first. And you don’t have to get out of bed very early to get ahead of this government. Simply making a cup of coffee in your dressing gown gives you a strategic advantage.

Johnson was on his feet for two and a quarter hours, and almost none of the Tory MPs who asked him questions offered wholehearted support to their leader.

The prime minister made little effort to take on the critics behind him. This may have been an effort to be conciliatory, but it left the impression that he felt more at the mercy of events than their master. “It is only 28 days,” he said at one point.

A prime minister with a majority of 80 is disappearing before our eyes, unable to defend his appointees, his decisions or his policies, despised by his own side and opposition alike. It is all so terribly difficult, being in government. If only someone had warned him.

Once Brexit is secured, Biden is elected and a vaccine is imminent then Boris has outlived his usefulness. The data is now starting to show him to be a liability with his GE2019 voters too.

Then ditching him becomes the logical thing to do with the next big challenge - IndyRef2 - where him going may help save the Union.

I'm thinking someone moderate who can build bridges with the US and EU, who's largely untainted by Brexit, who can govern competently for the whole Union, who understands health and who will not scare the horses.

I'm thinking Hunt.

Are.

The data are now starting to show.

But same question to you as to on the bus off the bus Big G - why wait? He is a solipsistic, ineffective, useless twat. Why wait to get rid of him?

Unless you want to guarantee a crash out No Deal end to transition there simy isn't time to replace him this year.

If he is replaced promptly then there is no reason why, say, Jeremy Hunt couldn't continue the negotiations.

But it is the principle. If you think he is bad, then you should want to get rid as soon as possible. If not, say you want to keep him.

Casino_Royale said:

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

rottenborough said:

Ex minister: "[Johnson's] just seen as a dead duck, and every time they fail to deliver they just double down with a bigger promise."

Telegraph blog

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1323541830428954624

The piece is worth reading in full:

https://thecritic.co.uk/whole-lotta-lockdown/

One of the great skills in opposition is to work out what the government is going to do, and then call for it first. And you don’t have to get out of bed very early to get ahead of this government. Simply making a cup of coffee in your dressing gown gives you a strategic advantage.

Johnson was on his feet for two and a quarter hours, and almost none of the Tory MPs who asked him questions offered wholehearted support to their leader.

The prime minister made little effort to take on the critics behind him. This may have been an effort to be conciliatory, but it left the impression that he felt more at the mercy of events than their master. “It is only 28 days,” he said at one point.

A prime minister with a majority of 80 is disappearing before our eyes, unable to defend his appointees, his decisions or his policies, despised by his own side and opposition alike. It is all so terribly difficult, being in government. If only someone had warned him.

Once Brexit is secured, Biden is elected and a vaccine is imminent then Boris has outlived his usefulness. The data is now starting to show him to be a liability with his GE2019 voters too.

Then ditching him becomes the logical thing to do with the next big challenge - IndyRef2 - where him going may help save the Union.

I'm thinking someone moderate who can build bridges with the US and EU, who's largely untainted by Brexit, who can govern competently for the whole Union, who understands health and who will not scare the horses.

I'm thinking Hunt.

Are.

The data are now starting to show.

But same question to you as to on the bus off the bus Big G - why wait? He is a solipsistic, ineffective, useless twat. Why wait to get rid of him?

I've wanted him gone for months and originally voted for Hunt, as you'd know if you'd read my posts.

I'm postulating how the Tory party will see it and when they'll move.

I think that's Spring/locals next year.

Fair enough.

On topic -

The problem is differential turnout. Most posters here don't know anyone who would vote for Trump. Yet, he is nailed on to get at least 40%.

Yes, the Democrats are united and fired up. The question is how fired up are the Trumpets? There seem to be a lot of very angry, very enthusiastic (even dangerously violent) Trump supporters out there. How will that turn into votes?

On COVID

One for MaxPB

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54786130

ClippP said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

glw said:

Casino_Royale said:

Once Brexit is secured, Biden is elected and a vaccine is imminent then Boris has outlived his usefulness. The data is now starting to show him to be a liability with his GE2019 voters too.

Then ditching him becomes the logical thing to do with the next big challenge - IndyRef2 - where him going may help save the Union.

I'm thinking someone moderate who can build bridges with the US and EU, who's largely untainted by Brexit, who can govern competently for the whole Union, who understands health and who will not scare the horses.

I'm thinking Hunt.

That would require the Tories to effectively admit that they made massive mistake in electing Johnson. Now obviously everyone can see they made a mistake, but do political types like admitting mistakes?

If there is one thing the Tories are good at it is replacing leaders when they have outlived their usefulness.

They don´t seem to be very good at it at the moment.

He still is useful...they can pin brexit deal and covid response on him.

Casino_Royale said:

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

rottenborough said:

Ex minister: "[Johnson's] just seen as a dead duck, and every time they fail to deliver they just double down with a bigger promise."

Telegraph blog

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1323541830428954624

The piece is worth reading in full:

https://thecritic.co.uk/whole-lotta-lockdown/

One of the great skills in opposition is to work out what the government is going to do, and then call for it first. And you don’t have to get out of bed very early to get ahead of this government. Simply making a cup of coffee in your dressing gown gives you a strategic advantage.

Johnson was on his feet for two and a quarter hours, and almost none of the Tory MPs who asked him questions offered wholehearted support to their leader.

The prime minister made little effort to take on the critics behind him. This may have been an effort to be conciliatory, but it left the impression that he felt more at the mercy of events than their master. “It is only 28 days,” he said at one point.

A prime minister with a majority of 80 is disappearing before our eyes, unable to defend his appointees, his decisions or his policies, despised by his own side and opposition alike. It is all so terribly difficult, being in government. If only someone had warned him.

Once Brexit is secured, Biden is elected and a vaccine is imminent then Boris has outlived his usefulness. The data is now starting to show him to be a liability with his GE2019 voters too.

Then ditching him becomes the logical thing to do with the next big challenge - IndyRef2 - where him going may help save the Union.

I'm thinking someone moderate who can build bridges with the US and EU, who's largely untainted by Brexit, who can govern competently for the whole Union, who understands health and who will not scare the horses.

I'm thinking Hunt.

Are.

The data are now starting to show.

But same question to you as to on the bus off the bus Big G - why wait? He is a solipsistic, ineffective, useless twat. Why wait to get rid of him?

I've wanted him gone for months and originally voted for Hunt, as you'd know if you'd read my posts.

I'm postulating how the Tory party will see it and when they'll move.

I think that's Spring/locals next year.

I increasingly think that Boris won't fight the next election. The next election has to be by December 2024 but I would expect it to revert to spring and be April/May 2024.

Due to the need to have an MPs' part and a members' part the best time to run a Tory leadership election is over the summer recess. That gives us summer 2021, summer 2022 and summer 2023 as possibles.

Summer 2023 doesn't give the new PM much chance to establish themselves before the election.
The COVID crisis may not be fully resolved by next summer.

Therefore the best bet to me looks like summer 2022.

The exception is if Boris has to stand down due to ill health. In this case, I would expect the MPs to pick someone as a caretaker with a proper leadership election in due course.

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

kamski said:

Thoughts on Biden:

1) If, back in April when it was clear he would be the nominee, you'd offered me Biden being 8.4% ahead in the 538 national polling average on the eve of the election, I would have happily taken it.
2) Warren, who was once front-runner, would in some ways have made a much better president. I have no idea if she would do better or worse than Biden against Trump. However, it might be that the Democrats have a better chance of taking the Senate with Biden running - I would take President Biden + Dem Senate over President Warren and Republican Senate.
3) For me, the Hunter Biden influence peddling is a much worse "scandal" than Hillary Clinton using a private email server. It might be all legal, but it is legalised corruption, and it's a shame the Democrats couldn't find a candidate with a totally clean contrast with Trump's nepotism, conflict of interests, and general gangsterism. On the other hand, I'm happy that the media weren't as obsessed with Hunter Biden as they were last time with Hillary's emails.

I know nothing about Hunter Biden's shenanigans but If you watched the BBC 2 3 part prog on Trump whatever he did was unlikely to have been as corrupt as Guiliani and Trumps attempts at 'persuading' the Ukrainian leader to dig the dirt on him or their attempts afterwards to cover their tracks by removing the whisleblower. Guiliani is amoral and poisonous

You really need to read up on Hunter Biden Roger. Makes Trump look angelic.

If I wanted to hear about another American sleazeball I'd read Lee Child!

The problem is the ocean of money in American politics. Biden is quite ordinary in his financial behaviour. While Trump is quite extraordinary.

The problem comes when it is considered completely fine for a politician to vote on a subject were the parties involved have donated large sums of money their campaign. Providing you do the right dance moves - perfectly legal. When you add in the you-vote-for-my-pork-i'll-vote-for-yours stuff..... Well, you get AOC voting to build a giant, over priced rocket in Alabama. Why?

As Pres. Bartlett said "We have legalised bribery".

Malmesbury said:

...
On COVID

One for MaxPB

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54786130

Pointed to that this morning.
I've little doubt that Max will share my dismay at the apparent complete lack of plans to do anything to improve the rate of those found infected actually isolating.
The boffins interviewed on the radio this morning were all saying they 'hoped' that people would isolate. The reality is that maybe a third of those testing positive will actually do so, unless incentives and practical help to do so are much improved.

Mr. Urquhart, I agree.

Mission accomplished. Time to fire him from a giant cannon into the heart of the sun and replace him with someone vaguely competent.

MrEd said:

Cyclefree said:

edmundintokyo said:

Northern_Al said:

Contrary to popular wisdom, this time round the silent majority is against Trump. The pollsters haven't quite spotted the extent of this (and nor have the gamblers). There's no great love for Biden, but people are fearful of another 4 years of Trump, and fearful of Covid. Apart from the Trumpsters, most Americans now think he's mad and dangerous and it's time for him to go.

Not saying you're wrong, but if it's there why don't you think the pollsters can see it?

I wonder whether there aren’t in reality a lot of shy Trump voters.

You do have an example of this from the 2016 Brexit referendum.

In the days before Jo Cox's murder, Leave was winning in a good number of the polls. In the days after, the polling momentum swung and most polls showed Remain in the lead.

In hindsight, that wasn't an actual change in opinion but it seemed a few people didn't like their names being associated with what was seen as a repulsive cause (and which many in the public eye criticised vehemently).

Because most of us find Trump repulsive, there is a tendency to assume others will too and that people will not therefore vote for him. We don’t understand why many love him. Nor do we understand that many will vote for him despite disliking him personally.

He has cleverly turned one of the criticisms made of him - that he does not follow conventions - into a strength by telling voters that he is there to serve them (unlike the conventional politicians). Regardless of whether it is true, it is an attractive message. And it may well work.

TRUMP SURGE OR SHY BIDEN?

For reasons that escape me I have only just looked at North Carolina Party Registration change by County.

The rise of Unaffilaited is eye popping, especially in the way it is happening.

In Trump Counties the amount of extra Republicans and amount of extra Unaffilaited is pretty much matched 1 for 1.

In Clinton counties Unaffiliated have exploded compared to changes in Republican and Dem votes.

In Mecklenburgh Dems are up 24k, GOP down 2k and Unaffiliated up 55k

In Gaston (a typical Trump county) Dems down 3.5k, GOP up 5k and Unaffiliated up 6.5k

For me this is a fascinating question - what is the nature of the Unaffiliated in these counties.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Urquhart, I agree.

Mission accomplished. Time to fire him from a giant cannon into the heart of the sun and replace him with someone vaguely competent.

They agree a brexit deal and we get a vaccine, then perfect time to claim he has never managed to fully recover from COVID, wants to spend more time with his new son and shuffle off to write books.

I thought he needed to make money?