Excellent thread by TSE. It's not just that I agree with it, which is irrelevant, it's that it sticks to the facts which are staring us in the face. There's another raft of fantastic polls out today for Biden, with occasional outliers to be expected. Some (HYUFD) will latch onto those latter exclusively but that's not objective. Objectively Biden is going to win and win big. And the Senate is extremely likely to flip.
My analysis? When I say 'win big' I think we are talking upward of 330 EV's. I think it's quite possible looking at these polls that Biden is going over 350.
As the New York Times specifies, no presidential candidate from either side has gone into the last day of a US election with such a commanding polling lead since Obama in 2008.
What worries most is that it does seem that whatever governments do or don't do has little bearing on what is happening. The only conclusion seems to be that the public are not complying in sufficient numbers to stop the spread. I also suspect that the percentages of the miscreants is probably low but that is all it takes! Profoundly depressing.
Early modeling during the initial Wuhan outbreak (from Imperial IIRC) showed that as little as 10% non-compliance would effectively invalidate suppression (although it would still flatten the curve).
and in a nut-shell I think that pretty much explains why we are where we are in the UK (as well as most of Europe) and why we will pretty much stay there until a vaccine emerges
Bristolians really love been referred to as Somerset rustics.
Yes, it’s almost as if Massive Attack and Portishead never existed.
A numbers of years ago I was in a restaurant in Bristol, and this guy next to me was there with his family, with one of his kids being that crawly investigate everything age and kept escaping from mum to come and prod Mrs U, and we ended up passing pleasant conversation about the kids etc...it was only when the waitress had a bit of a meltdown did I realise that it perhaps might be somebody famous. Turns out it was Grant Marshall from Massive Attack.
Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.
I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
The parallels between Corbyn and Trump are remarkable. Cyclefree did an excellent thread header commenting on it but you can dig much deeper.
Between Boris and Biden it is more the situation than the people but there are some similarities.
Both gaffe-prone.
Both could have been natural successors last time (as Veep/figurehead of Vote Leave).
Both never ended up running last time and beaten by a female rival instead, due to lack of support for them getting the top job from within their own party.
Biden dismissed as past it/too old/senile like Boris is dismissed as clownish/lazy/unserious.
Both "good enough" to defeat the opponent they're faced with.
You're so full of shit. I didn't read the cyclefree article but if she said 'the parallels between Trump and Corbyn are remarkable' I'd be amazed. It's crap and therefore got your handwriting all over it. cyclefree considers what she posts.
In 1992 and 1996 Bill Clinton comfortably carried Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas - yet Hilary was not competitive in any back in 2016. Why the change?
The reference to the next UKGE might contain an internal error.
There may not be another UK GE. It looks distinctly possible that the Scottish nationalists are going to win their legal argument to hold Indy Ref 2. That might happen before the next UK GE, although the timing is tight.
Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.
I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
I already did - situation not person. Some thought 2019 would be 2017 all over again, and it wasn't.
I really don't know why people find applying the same logic to the US hard to understand, even if they disagree and do think 2020 will be 2016 redux.
The personalities of those involved is irrelevant to the analogy.
The ideologies were different The perspective voter classes different The media environment different Trump is backed to the hilt by his party elite, Corbyn was never supported
I can only bridge the two by saying one was the left crying out against the orthodoxy and the other the right.
Trump was hated not backed to the hilt by his party elite. The Lincoln Project etc are all ran by former party elite who fled the party after Trump's acolytes took it over. Sound at all familiar?
Where are the senatorial rebellions then? Where are the masses of outspoken governors? Where's the Bush condemnation as Blair did.
The governing republican party has fallen in line. The Labour parliamentary party never did.
Have you not been paying attention to all the Republicans who have endorsed Biden or opposed Trump? Literally hundreds of big Republican names have rebelled against the party line.
Yes, but when push came to shove, elected Republicans, especially the Senators, were utterly craven and enabling.
After the 2016 election? Yes they were.
Just as Labour MPs were after the 2017 election.
Starmer says how unforgivable the anti-Semitism is now and removes Corbyn now but this time last year he was in the Shadow Cabinet campaigning officially for Corbyn to be our next Prime Minister.
In 1992 and 1996 Bill Clinton comfortably carried Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas - yet Hilary was not competitive in any back in 2016. Why the change?
Well Bill Clinton and Al Gore were genuinely native sons from Arkansas & Tennessee whereas Hillary was seen as New York.
Plus, plus there was a third party candidate in 1992 that took hefty votes from the GOP.
Excellent thread by TSE. It's not just that I agree with it, which is irrelevant, it's that it sticks to the facts which are staring us in the face. There's another raft of fantastic polls out today for Biden, with occasional outliers to be expected. Some (HYUFD) will latch onto those latter exclusively but that's not objective. Objectively Biden is going to win and win big. And the Senate is extremely likely to flip.
My analysis? When I say 'win big' I think we are talking upward of 330 EV's. I think it's quite possible looking at these polls that Biden is going over 350.
As the New York Times specifies, no presidential candidate from either side has gone into the last day of a US election with such a commanding polling lead since Obama in 2008.
The reference to the next UKGE might contain an internal error.
There may not be another UK GE. It looks distinctly possible that the Scottish nationalists are going to win their legal argument to hold Indy Ref 2. That might happen before the next UK GE, although the timing is tight.
Even if Scotland goes we would remain the UK even as we remained the UK after most of the Republic of Ireland left.
Scotland isn't what made our country the UK. Irish Unification would mean the end of the UK.
I've said many times, Starmer is probably to the right of my personal politics - but I have accepted the country isn't where I am and that's reality. And yet that is somehow seen as a bad thing.
Same here. But also, a leader's values and competence are more important to me than their exact position on the political spectrum. There are plenty of people who support left wing policies that I also support, but who I wouldn't want anywhere near power, because they are intolerant of opposing views.
I would be backing Starmer even if he was Blair 2.0, the fact he is sufficiently left wing is just icing on the cake for me personally.
He's by every measure, the best leader Labour has had since Blair.
Not a high bar to pass but I agree. He's a real threat. Would be a disaster but he's a threat.
The Tories point to every Labour leader and say they would be a "disaster", but you know what? The Tories then go and screw the country so badly that it is genuinely hard to see how Labour could be worse than the total and utter balls up we are left with.
Just a reminder that the last time we got asked the choice was between Jezza and Boris for PM. I don't know what other centre left/centre right/centre people think but even now given that appalling choice I would feel I had to go for Boris. For much the same reasons that I would vote for a bad candidate who was the alternative to Trump. With hindsight it makes it especially strange that a decent and fairly honest LD leader made nil impact last year (with Remainers, which I am not) and that the LDs continue to make no impact in this very centrist country.
In 1992 and 1996 Bill Clinton comfortably carried Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas - yet Hilary was not competitive in any back in 2016. Why the change?
The reference to the next UKGE might contain an internal error.
There may not be another UK GE. It looks distinctly possible that the Scottish nationalists are going to win their legal argument to hold Indy Ref 2. That might happen before the next UK GE, although the timing is tight.
I can see a vote happening, if they cannot hold out after the SNP win a stonking majority, but while it need not play out exactly like Brexit (it could be worse!) and article 50 is not a thing, years of wrangling seems likely so I'd assume they'd need at least one more UK GE.
As I keep saying, we’re an island. We have that advantage unlike say Germany yet they’re still beating us overall.
We aren't really an island in the same way Australia is. We are far more integrated with Europe than Australia ever could be integrated with its neighbours. The amount of lorries etc that travel from the UK to Europe and back every day ... Haven't you yourself made that point before in Brexit discussions?
Bristolians really love been referred to as Somerset rustics.
Yes, it’s almost as if Massive Attack and Portishead never existed.
A numbers of years ago I was in a restaurant in Bristol, and this guy next to me was there with his family, with one of his kids being that crawly investigate everything age and kept escaping from mum to come and prod Mrs U, and we ended up passing pleasant conversation about the kids etc...it was only when the waitress had a bit of a meltdown did I realise that it perhaps might be somebody famous. Turns out it was Grant Marshall from Massive Attack.
☺️ Phenomenal! Their first album, Blue Lines, remains one of the greatest dance albums of all time, very probably one of the finest albums of any genre ever recorded.
Excellent thread by TSE. It's not just that I agree with it, which is irrelevant, it's that it sticks to the facts which are staring us in the face. There's another raft of fantastic polls out today for Biden, with occasional outliers to be expected. Some (HYUFD) will latch onto those latter exclusively but that's not objective. Objectively Biden is going to win and win big. And the Senate is extremely likely to flip.
My analysis? When I say 'win big' I think we are talking upward of 330 EV's. I think it's quite possible looking at these polls that Biden is going over 350.
As the New York Times specifies, no presidential candidate from either side has gone into the last day of a US election with such a commanding polling lead since Obama in 2008.
Jon Ralston's calls Nevada for Biden as the "Clarke Firewall" heads past 89,500 with one more day of mail in ballots to come. In person voting concluded on Friday.
The reference to the next UKGE might contain an internal error.
There may not be another UK GE. It looks distinctly possible that the Scottish nationalists are going to win their legal argument to hold Indy Ref 2. That might happen before the next UK GE, although the timing is tight.
Even if Scotland goes we would remain the UK even as we remained the UK after most of the Republic of Ireland left.
Scotland isn't what made our country the UK. Irish Unification would mean the end of the UK.
You mean, we would be a united kingdom of England, Wales and, erm, possibly Northern Ireland depending on what happens after the latest Brexit round? By the way, I note that your comment comes from someone who said they didn't mind seeing the troubles return to Northern Ireland providing we had Brexit.
When Joe Biden wins on Tuesday that's going to render Johnson's little Englanders even more isolated on the global stage. And his plans on the Irish border are going to be in trouble.
I apologise for allowing my glee to show. It's very sad really.
If the case data turns out to be accurate to the ONS data then the government is going to have to go into spin overdrive to try and credit the drop to the lockdown.
It looks increasingly like the R has dropped below 1 in Scotland, London, NI, NE, NW and most other parts of the country except Wales. If the ONS confirms it then Nicola is in a stunningly strong position come Friday to reject a lockdown and watch cases drop and get furlough and other business support money.
Boris has let the scientists use big numbers to scare him into an unnecessary lockdown and we're all going to pay for it. The scientists will feel none of the consequences of their awful models, they won't even be sacked and will end up being honoured. It's absolutely galling how rubbish the politicians are across all parties.
Excellent thread by TSE. It's not just that I agree with it, which is irrelevant, it's that it sticks to the facts which are staring us in the face. There's another raft of fantastic polls out today for Biden, with occasional outliers to be expected. Some (HYUFD) will latch onto those latter exclusively but that's not objective. Objectively Biden is going to win and win big. And the Senate is extremely likely to flip.
My analysis? When I say 'win big' I think we are talking upward of 330 EV's. I think it's quite possible looking at these polls that Biden is going over 350.
As the New York Times specifies, no presidential candidate from either side has gone into the last day of a US election with such a commanding polling lead since Obama in 2008.
If the case data turns out to be accurate to the ONS data then the government is going to have to go into spin overdrive to try and credit the drop to the lockdown.
It looks increasingly like the R has dropped below 1 in Scotland, London, NI, NE, NW and most other parts of the country except Wales. If the ONS confirms it then Nicola is in a stunningly strong position come Friday to reject a lockdown and watch cases drop and get furlough and other business support money.
Boris has let the scientists use big numbers to scare him into an unnecessary lockdown and we're all going to pay for it. The scientists will feel none of the consequences of their awful models, they won't even be sacked and will end up being honoured. It's absolutely galling how rubbish the politicians are across all parties.
If the case data turns out to be accurate to the ONS data then the government is going to have to go into spin overdrive to try and credit the drop to the lockdown.
It looks increasingly like the R has dropped below 1 in Scotland, London, NI, NE, NW and most other parts of the country except Wales. If the ONS confirms it then Nicola is in a stunningly strong position come Friday to reject a lockdown and watch cases drop and get furlough and other business support money.
Boris has let the scientists use big numbers to scare him into an unnecessary lockdown and we're all going to pay for it. The scientists will feel none of the consequences of their awful models, they won't even be sacked and will end up being honoured. It's absolutely galling how rubbish the politicians are across all parties.
The Tories who foisted such an inadequate upon us have a lot to answer for.
He is too lazy even to ask the right questions, and we will all suffer for his indolence.
The reference to the next UKGE might contain an internal error.
There may not be another UK GE. It looks distinctly possible that the Scottish nationalists are going to win their legal argument to hold Indy Ref 2. That might happen before the next UK GE, although the timing is tight.
I can see a vote happening, if they cannot hold out after the SNP win a stonking majority, but while it need not play out exactly like Brexit (it could be worse!) and article 50 is not a thing, years of wrangling seems likely so I'd assume they'd need at least one more UK GE.
Too many on this site are resigned to indyref and the SNP narrative. Things look bleak now- but that things can change quickly during a pandemic. Plus practilities of independence haven't even begun to have been discussed (not least a huge amount of debt, currency issues, hard border..etc)
Bristolians really love been referred to as Somerset rustics.
Yes, it’s almost as if Massive Attack and Portishead never existed.
A numbers of years ago I was in a restaurant in Bristol, and this guy next to me was there with his family, with one of his kids being that crawly investigate everything age and kept escaping from mum to come and prod Mrs U, and we ended up passing pleasant conversation about the kids etc...it was only when the waitress had a bit of a meltdown did I realise that it perhaps might be somebody famous. Turns out it was Grant Marshall from Massive Attack.
☺️ Phenomenal! Their first album, Blue Lines, remains one of the greatest dance albums of all time, very probably one of the finest albums of any genre ever recorded.
Agreed. Mezzanine and Protection also astonishingly good.
I find I can no longer listen to their music, or just don't, whereas once I adored them (and Portishead who were also mentioned). It's to do with memories mainly.
As I keep saying, we’re an island. We have that advantage unlike say Germany yet they’re still beating us overall.
Being an island next to europe is nothing like Australia or NZ. Almost every country in Europe is grappling with identical issues and most are currently doing no better or worse than the UK. Germany is the exception not the norm. Stop the constant playing of politics.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/01/swamp-that-birthed-trump-433697 ... Trump, facing next week’s Election Day reckoning, got to Washington and the White House by commanding unrivaled amounts of attention and inflaming enduring racial and cultural divides, but also by saying he was going to “drain the swamp.” That last part was always the most elementally specious pledge. Trump has not only not done that—“The Swamp That Trump Built,” read a recent headline in the New York Times—but it would have gone against every fiber of his being to even try. Trump’s most comfortable habitat from the get-go was the pay to play and the quid pro quo of the unscrupulous nexus of business and politics. The swamp is what made him. The swamp is what he has mined. The swamp is all he’s ever known.
The recent release of Without Compromise, the anthology of work by the late longtime Village Voice reporter Wayne Barrett, makes for a timely reminder of this reality. Barrett, who died the day before Trump’s inauguration in January 2017, wrote the seminal profile of Trump—in January of 1979. He was the first journalist who took Trump seriously. He looked past the glitz and bore down on the graft. Barrett’s job certainly wasn’t to cover Trump per se. He was just all but forced to focus on him, beginning when both were in their early 30s, because his beat was state and municipal corruption and Trump’s deals always seemed to attract the most notorious players. It was a self-appointed task that kept Barrett busy for the better part of the next 40 years...
As I keep saying, we’re an island. We have that advantage unlike say Germany yet they’re still beating us overall.
Being an island next to europe is nothing like Australia or NZ. Almost every country in Europe is grappling with identical issues and most are currently doing no better or worse than the UK. Germany is the exception not the norm. Stop the constant playing of politics.
Oh give over. I gave the Government the benefit of the doubt in the spring but the lack of action over the summer is inexcusable. Being an island IS an advantage and we've completely wasted it.
In 1992 and 1996 Bill Clinton comfortably carried Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas - yet Hilary was not competitive in any back in 2016. Why the change?
Bill was a rural Southerner?
Indeed - though Hillary was First Lady in Arkansas whilst he was Governor.
If the case data turns out to be accurate to the ONS data then the government is going to have to go into spin overdrive to try and credit the drop to the lockdown.
It looks increasingly like the R has dropped below 1 in Scotland, London, NI, NE, NW and most other parts of the country except Wales. If the ONS confirms it then Nicola is in a stunningly strong position come Friday to reject a lockdown and watch cases drop and get furlough and other business support money.
Boris has let the scientists use big numbers to scare him into an unnecessary lockdown and we're all going to pay for it. The scientists will feel none of the consequences of their awful models, they won't even be sacked and will end up being honoured. It's absolutely galling how rubbish the politicians are across all parties.
23,254 new cases today.
The rate of increase is now basically 0 and that's with two or three regions that have got some case growth and one that has more than some case growth, that means case growth elsewhere is now in reverse. At least if we're still getting a reasonably good sample with the testing regime.
The reference to the next UKGE might contain an internal error.
There may not be another UK GE. It looks distinctly possible that the Scottish nationalists are going to win their legal argument to hold Indy Ref 2. That might happen before the next UK GE, although the timing is tight.
Even if Scotland goes we would remain the UK even as we remained the UK after most of the Republic of Ireland left.
Scotland isn't what made our country the UK. Irish Unification would mean the end of the UK.
You mean, we would be a united kingdom of England, Wales and, erm, possibly Northern Ireland depending on what happens after the latest Brexit round? By the way, I note that your comment comes from someone who said they didn't mind seeing the troubles return to Northern Ireland providing we had Brexit.
When Joe Biden wins on Tuesday that's going to render Johnson's little Englanders even more isolated on the global stage. And his plans on the Irish border are going to be in trouble.
I apologise for allowing my glee to show. It's very sad really.
I never said that "I didn't mind seeing the Troubles return", that is categorically not true.
I said that if the Troubles were to return I would blame the terrorists and the threat of terrorism does not supercede democracy.
In 1992 and 1996 Bill Clinton comfortably carried Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas - yet Hilary was not competitive in any back in 2016. Why the change?
Bill was a rural Southerner?
Indeed - though Hillary was First Lady in Arkansas whilst he was Governor.
The reference to the next UKGE might contain an internal error.
There may not be another UK GE. It looks distinctly possible that the Scottish nationalists are going to win their legal argument to hold Indy Ref 2. That might happen before the next UK GE, although the timing is tight.
Even if Scotland goes we would remain the UK even as we remained the UK after most of the Republic of Ireland left.
Scotland isn't what made our country the UK. Irish Unification would mean the end of the UK.
You mean, we would be a united kingdom of England, Wales and, erm, possibly Northern Ireland depending on what happens after the latest Brexit round? By the way, I note that your comment comes from someone who said they didn't mind seeing the troubles return to Northern Ireland providing we had Brexit.
When Joe Biden wins on Tuesday that's going to render Johnson's little Englanders even more isolated on the global stage. And his plans on the Irish border are going to be in trouble.
I apologise for allowing my glee to show. It's very sad really.
I never said that "I didn't mind seeing the Troubles return", that is categorically not true.
I said that if the Troubles were to return I would blame the terrorists and the threat of terrorism does not supercede democracy.
That is NOT what you said!!!! You categorically stated that if the troubles returned it would be, and I quote, "a price worth paying" in order to secure Brexit.
I remember Mike amongst others being horrified at your comment, rightly so. Many of us remember those dark days and never want to return to them. Nor does Joe Biden.
The reference to the next UKGE might contain an internal error.
There may not be another UK GE. It looks distinctly possible that the Scottish nationalists are going to win their legal argument to hold Indy Ref 2. That might happen before the next UK GE, although the timing is tight.
Even if Scotland goes we would remain the UK even as we remained the UK after most of the Republic of Ireland left.
Scotland isn't what made our country the UK. Irish Unification would mean the end of the UK.
You mean, we would be a united kingdom of England, Wales and, erm, possibly Northern Ireland depending on what happens after the latest Brexit round? By the way, I note that your comment comes from someone who said they didn't mind seeing the troubles return to Northern Ireland providing we had Brexit.
When Joe Biden wins on Tuesday that's going to render Johnson's little Englanders even more isolated on the global stage. And his plans on the Irish border are going to be in trouble.
I apologise for allowing my glee to show. It's very sad really.
I never said that "I didn't mind seeing the Troubles return", that is categorically not true.
I said that if the Troubles were to return I would blame the terrorists and the threat of terrorism does not supercede democracy.
That is NOT what you said!!!! You categorically stated that if the troubles returned it would be, and I quote, "a price worth paying" in order to secure Brexit.
I remember Mike amongst others being horrified at your comment, rightly so. Many of us remember those dark days and never want to return to them. Nor does Joe Biden.
Bullshit.
A return to those days is the last thing I wanted but I also said the threat of that couldn't trump democracy.
If the case data turns out to be accurate to the ONS data then the government is going to have to go into spin overdrive to try and credit the drop to the lockdown.
It looks increasingly like the R has dropped below 1 in Scotland, London, NI, NE, NW and most other parts of the country except Wales. If the ONS confirms it then Nicola is in a stunningly strong position come Friday to reject a lockdown and watch cases drop and get furlough and other business support money.
Boris has let the scientists use big numbers to scare him into an unnecessary lockdown and we're all going to pay for it. The scientists will feel none of the consequences of their awful models, they won't even be sacked and will end up being honoured. It's absolutely galling how rubbish the politicians are across all parties.
23,254 new cases today.
The rate of increase is now basically 0 and that's with two or three regions that have got some case growth and one that has more than some case growth, that means case growth elsewhere is now in reverse. At least if we're still getting a reasonably good sample with the testing regime.
So are you saying the correct approcach is keep the Tier system as it is, forget national lockdown and the figures in 4 weeks would be less by doing it that way than a national lockdown? It's a genuine question as I'm a layman with this stuff unlike some posters who i respect do a lot of research into these figures. And if so why do the govt scientists not see the same things.
The reference to the next UKGE might contain an internal error.
There may not be another UK GE. It looks distinctly possible that the Scottish nationalists are going to win their legal argument to hold Indy Ref 2. That might happen before the next UK GE, although the timing is tight.
I can see a vote happening, if they cannot hold out after the SNP win a stonking majority, but while it need not play out exactly like Brexit (it could be worse!) and article 50 is not a thing, years of wrangling seems likely so I'd assume they'd need at least one more UK GE.
Too many on this site are resigned to indyref and the SNP narrative. Things look bleak now- but that things can change quickly during a pandemic. Plus practilities of independence haven't even begun to have been discussed (not least a huge amount of debt, currency issues, hard border..etc)
Haven't even begun to have been discussed, except as an incessant, gurning chorus, week in week out.
If the case data turns out to be accurate to the ONS data then the government is going to have to go into spin overdrive to try and credit the drop to the lockdown.
It looks increasingly like the R has dropped below 1 in Scotland, London, NI, NE, NW and most other parts of the country except Wales. If the ONS confirms it then Nicola is in a stunningly strong position come Friday to reject a lockdown and watch cases drop and get furlough and other business support money.
Boris has let the scientists use big numbers to scare him into an unnecessary lockdown and we're all going to pay for it. The scientists will feel none of the consequences of their awful models, they won't even be sacked and will end up being honoured. It's absolutely galling how rubbish the politicians are across all parties.
23,254 new cases today.
The rate of increase is now basically 0 and that's with two or three regions that have got some case growth and one that has more than some case growth, that means case growth elsewhere is now in reverse. At least if we're still getting a reasonably good sample with the testing regime.
So are you saying the correct approcach is keep the Tier system as it is, forget national lockdown and the figures in 4 weeks would be less by doing it that way than a national lockdown? It's a genuine question as I'm a layman with this stuff unlike some posters who i respect do a lot of research into these figures. And if so why do the govt scientists not see the same things.
The issue the scientists prioritised was not the rate of increase alone but the age-related increase.
It is declining amongst students from its peak but is increasing in the elderly and vulnerable. That's bad.
The reference to the next UKGE might contain an internal error.
There may not be another UK GE. It looks distinctly possible that the Scottish nationalists are going to win their legal argument to hold Indy Ref 2. That might happen before the next UK GE, although the timing is tight.
I can see a vote happening, if they cannot hold out after the SNP win a stonking majority, but while it need not play out exactly like Brexit (it could be worse!) and article 50 is not a thing, years of wrangling seems likely so I'd assume they'd need at least one more UK GE.
Too many on this site are resigned to indyref and the SNP narrative. Things look bleak now- but that things can change quickly during a pandemic. Plus practilities of independence haven't even begun to have been discussed (not least a huge amount of debt, currency issues, hard border..etc)
I am sadly resigned, as I fear the practical issues will no longer sway enough people from what they emotionally want, and not enough feel positive about the UK to change that.
As I keep saying, we’re an island. We have that advantage unlike say Germany yet they’re still beating us overall.
Being an island next to europe is nothing like Australia or NZ. Almost every country in Europe is grappling with identical issues and most are currently doing no better or worse than the UK. Germany is the exception not the norm. Stop the constant playing of politics.
Being a densely populated island of 65 million is very different from being a continental-sized landmass whose population centres might as well be separate islands. Australia could lockdown Melbourne alone without having to consider millions of other people within an hour's drive.
I caught the news at 1am and it was a bit of a shock. On reflection and having seen a few polls with a more familiar narrative I've decided it probably isn't so bad for Biden.
Pulpstar (ty for the thread, btw) and Alistair did a good job on the cross-tables, although like EiT I don't like to dismiss a surprising poll without good reason. I think it's best to take the Seltzer at face value.
Trump did win Iowa by 9 in 2016 so if he wins by 7 this year he probably just about loses the Presidency, all other things being equal. So it's not *that* sensationally good for him.
Emerson has been a tough pollster for Biden so their three results today actually represent pretty encouraging signs for him. Other polls rather support this view so whilst I now have Iowa definitely in the red column, I'm still seeing a comfortable win for Sleepy.
The Iowa/Selzer poll does however seem to scotch the notion of a Biden landslide. He'll probably be happy enough with a regular win and small Senate majority, which is about where we're headed at the moment.
If the case data turns out to be accurate to the ONS data then the government is going to have to go into spin overdrive to try and credit the drop to the lockdown.
It looks increasingly like the R has dropped below 1 in Scotland, London, NI, NE, NW and most other parts of the country except Wales. If the ONS confirms it then Nicola is in a stunningly strong position come Friday to reject a lockdown and watch cases drop and get furlough and other business support money.
Boris has let the scientists use big numbers to scare him into an unnecessary lockdown and we're all going to pay for it. The scientists will feel none of the consequences of their awful models, they won't even be sacked and will end up being honoured. It's absolutely galling how rubbish the politicians are across all parties.
23,254 new cases today.
The rate of increase is now basically 0 and that's with two or three regions that have got some case growth and one that has more than some case growth, that means case growth elsewhere is now in reverse. At least if we're still getting a reasonably good sample with the testing regime.
So are you saying the correct approcach is keep the Tier system as it is, forget national lockdown and the figures in 4 weeks would be less by doing it that way than a national lockdown? It's a genuine question as I'm a layman with this stuff unlike some posters who i respect do a lot of research into these figures. And if so why do the govt scientists not see the same things.
The test of this has been whether the R is above or below 1. We're being told we need to lock down because the R is still over 1 and hasn't dropped under 1. It looks as though the R is dropping under 1 all over the UK already without the need for lockdown.
If the case data turns out to be accurate to the ONS data then the government is going to have to go into spin overdrive to try and credit the drop to the lockdown.
It looks increasingly like the R has dropped below 1 in Scotland, London, NI, NE, NW and most other parts of the country except Wales. If the ONS confirms it then Nicola is in a stunningly strong position come Friday to reject a lockdown and watch cases drop and get furlough and other business support money.
Boris has let the scientists use big numbers to scare him into an unnecessary lockdown and we're all going to pay for it. The scientists will feel none of the consequences of their awful models, they won't even be sacked and will end up being honoured. It's absolutely galling how rubbish the politicians are across all parties.
23,254 new cases today.
Ferguson's prediction in March: Sweden without lockdown 85,000 deaths
Actual outcome in October: Sweden without lockdown 5,900 deaths.
How could a competent government hire someone who couldn't predict foot and mouth, BSE *or* swine flu?
If the case data turns out to be accurate to the ONS data then the government is going to have to go into spin overdrive to try and credit the drop to the lockdown.
It looks increasingly like the R has dropped below 1 in Scotland, London, NI, NE, NW and most other parts of the country except Wales. If the ONS confirms it then Nicola is in a stunningly strong position come Friday to reject a lockdown and watch cases drop and get furlough and other business support money.
Boris has let the scientists use big numbers to scare him into an unnecessary lockdown and we're all going to pay for it. The scientists will feel none of the consequences of their awful models, they won't even be sacked and will end up being honoured. It's absolutely galling how rubbish the politicians are across all parties.
23,254 new cases today.
The rate of increase is now basically 0 and that's with two or three regions that have got some case growth and one that has more than some case growth, that means case growth elsewhere is now in reverse. At least if we're still getting a reasonably good sample with the testing regime.
So are you saying the correct approcach is keep the Tier system as it is, forget national lockdown and the figures in 4 weeks would be less by doing it that way than a national lockdown? It's a genuine question as I'm a layman with this stuff unlike some posters who i respect do a lot of research into these figures. And if so why do the govt scientists not see the same things.
The test of this has been whether the R is above or below 1. We're being told we need to lock down because the R is still over 1 and hasn't dropped under 1. It looks as though the R is dropping under 1 all over the UK already without the need for lockdown.
Ok thanks, just as a layman it worries me that if people here can see that why the public are being told 'its rising', I am ok with a lockdown if its needed but the evidence seems so confusing to me
If the case data turns out to be accurate to the ONS data then the government is going to have to go into spin overdrive to try and credit the drop to the lockdown.
It looks increasingly like the R has dropped below 1 in Scotland, London, NI, NE, NW and most other parts of the country except Wales. If the ONS confirms it then Nicola is in a stunningly strong position come Friday to reject a lockdown and watch cases drop and get furlough and other business support money.
Boris has let the scientists use big numbers to scare him into an unnecessary lockdown and we're all going to pay for it. The scientists will feel none of the consequences of their awful models, they won't even be sacked and will end up being honoured. It's absolutely galling how rubbish the politicians are across all parties.
23,254 new cases today.
Ferguson's prediction in March: Sweden without lockdown 85,000 deaths
Actual outcome in October: Sweden without lockdown 5,900 deaths.
How could a competent government hire someone who couldn't predict foot and mouth, BSE *or* swine flu?
The reference to the next UKGE might contain an internal error.
There may not be another UK GE. It looks distinctly possible that the Scottish nationalists are going to win their legal argument to hold Indy Ref 2. That might happen before the next UK GE, although the timing is tight.
I can see a vote happening, if they cannot hold out after the SNP win a stonking majority, but while it need not play out exactly like Brexit (it could be worse!) and article 50 is not a thing, years of wrangling seems likely so I'd assume they'd need at least one more UK GE.
Too many on this site are resigned to indyref and the SNP narrative. Things look bleak now- but that things can change quickly during a pandemic. Plus practilities of independence haven't even begun to have been discussed (not least a huge amount of debt, currency issues, hard border..etc)
Haven't even begun to have been discussed, except as an incessant, gurning chorus, week in week out.
...the indy argument will - and has - descended into using the same arguments that got us to brexit. Absolutely no difference.
If the case data turns out to be accurate to the ONS data then the government is going to have to go into spin overdrive to try and credit the drop to the lockdown.
It looks increasingly like the R has dropped below 1 in Scotland, London, NI, NE, NW and most other parts of the country except Wales. If the ONS confirms it then Nicola is in a stunningly strong position come Friday to reject a lockdown and watch cases drop and get furlough and other business support money.
Boris has let the scientists use big numbers to scare him into an unnecessary lockdown and we're all going to pay for it. The scientists will feel none of the consequences of their awful models, they won't even be sacked and will end up being honoured. It's absolutely galling how rubbish the politicians are across all parties.
23,254 new cases today.
The rate of increase is now basically 0 and that's with two or three regions that have got some case growth and one that has more than some case growth, that means case growth elsewhere is now in reverse. At least if we're still getting a reasonably good sample with the testing regime.
So are you saying the correct approcach is keep the Tier system as it is, forget national lockdown and the figures in 4 weeks would be less by doing it that way than a national lockdown? It's a genuine question as I'm a layman with this stuff unlike some posters who i respect do a lot of research into these figures. And if so why do the govt scientists not see the same things.
The test of this has been whether the R is above or below 1. We're being told we need to lock down because the R is still over 1 and hasn't dropped under 1. It looks as though the R is dropping under 1 all over the UK already without the need for lockdown.
Ok thanks, just as a layman it worries me that if people here can see that why the public are being told 'its rising', I am ok with a lockdown if its needed but the evidence seems so confusing to me
Because it's the only way to sell the lockdown, by lying to the public and telling them that cases are rising. I mean the presentation started with a gigantic lie about all regions having a case growth when it's clear that Scotland and NE are already showing cases drop by the gold standard study (ONS) and by case data from the testing system while they are basically not growing in most other places in the country. He literally said the R was still above 1 in the NE when it is very clearly below 1.
It was a presentation designed to confuse the public into supporting the policy of lockdown. There was no other purpose for it.
If the case data turns out to be accurate to the ONS data then the government is going to have to go into spin overdrive to try and credit the drop to the lockdown.
It looks increasingly like the R has dropped below 1 in Scotland, London, NI, NE, NW and most other parts of the country except Wales. If the ONS confirms it then Nicola is in a stunningly strong position come Friday to reject a lockdown and watch cases drop and get furlough and other business support money.
Boris has let the scientists use big numbers to scare him into an unnecessary lockdown and we're all going to pay for it. The scientists will feel none of the consequences of their awful models, they won't even be sacked and will end up being honoured. It's absolutely galling how rubbish the politicians are across all parties.
23,254 new cases today.
Ferguson's prediction in March: Sweden without lockdown 85,000 deaths
Actual outcome in October: Sweden without lockdown 5,900 deaths.
How could a competent government hire someone who couldn't predict foot and mouth, BSE *or* swine flu?
Without mitigation ≠ without lockdown.
Isn't that the issue though, no one is saying we should throw open nightclubs and have 60k people in stadiums again. We're not talking about getting rid of mitigation, yet we're still being presented data from a model which doesn't take into account existing mitigation strategies.
Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.
I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
The parallels between Corbyn and Trump are remarkable. Cyclefree did an excellent thread header commenting on it but you can dig much deeper.
Between Boris and Biden it is more the situation than the people but there are some similarities.
Both gaffe-prone.
Both could have been natural successors last time (as Veep/figurehead of Vote Leave).
Both never ended up running last time and beaten by a female rival instead, due to lack of support for them getting the top job from within their own party.
Biden dismissed as past it/too old/senile like Boris is dismissed as clownish/lazy/unserious.
Both "good enough" to defeat the opponent they're faced with.
You're so full of shit. I didn't read the cyclefree article but if she said 'the parallels between Trump and Corbyn are remarkable' I'd be amazed. It's crap and therefore got your handwriting all over it. cyclefree considers what she posts.
In which case I take back my generous words about cyclefree's postings. That you don't like Corbyn and you don't like Trump is NOT a 'a remarkable parallel between them. It is no more than a feeble attempt to discredit one or both. Frank Muir was once asked what a cow and a robin have in common. He said they both have four legs except for the robin which has two.
The reference to the next UKGE might contain an internal error.
There may not be another UK GE. It looks distinctly possible that the Scottish nationalists are going to win their legal argument to hold Indy Ref 2. That might happen before the next UK GE, although the timing is tight.
I can see a vote happening, if they cannot hold out after the SNP win a stonking majority, but while it need not play out exactly like Brexit (it could be worse!) and article 50 is not a thing, years of wrangling seems likely so I'd assume they'd need at least one more UK GE.
Too many on this site are resigned to indyref and the SNP narrative. Things look bleak now- but that things can change quickly during a pandemic. Plus practilities of independence haven't even begun to have been discussed (not least a huge amount of debt, currency issues, hard border..etc)
Haven't even begun to have been discussed, except as an incessant, gurning chorus, week in week out.
...the indy argument will - and has - descended into using the same arguments that got us to brexit. Absolutely no difference.
No, there is a huge difference - many of the key pro-No arguments in 2014 have been discredited. Notably "Voting No is the only way to stay in Europe". You'd be surprised how much energy has gone on PB to claim that the No campaign argued the complete opposite.
The reference to the next UKGE might contain an internal error.
There may not be another UK GE. It looks distinctly possible that the Scottish nationalists are going to win their legal argument to hold Indy Ref 2. That might happen before the next UK GE, although the timing is tight.
I can see a vote happening, if they cannot hold out after the SNP win a stonking majority, but while it need not play out exactly like Brexit (it could be worse!) and article 50 is not a thing, years of wrangling seems likely so I'd assume they'd need at least one more UK GE.
Too many on this site are resigned to indyref and the SNP narrative. Things look bleak now- but that things can change quickly during a pandemic. Plus practilities of independence haven't even begun to have been discussed (not least a huge amount of debt, currency issues, hard border..etc)
I am sadly resigned, as I fear the practical issues will no longer sway enough people from what they emotionally want, and not enough feel positive about the UK to change that.
I desperately hope I am wrong.
I suspect in the long run the most likely way to avoid Scottish independence is for someone (SKS?) to offer a referendum on the basis that it is only on the ratification of an actual agreement, so that there could be genuine discussion of the pros and cons and a process with grown ups in the room about what is involved. One can imagine SKS saying that he has learned from Brexit how not to do a referendum. The SNP would struggle to disagree and keep a straight face. And Unionists might enjoy the sight of the SNP trying to wriggle away from having to have an actual set of concrete proposals to vote on.
On the subject of Wagner, are there any Wagner enthusiasts out there? A friend, now deceased, had as his main aim in life to convert all he knew to a love of Wagner. So far it hasn't worked in my case but I'm willing to give it another go. I am thinking of buying a CD or DVD of a Wagner opera; which one should a novice go for?
The reference to the next UKGE might contain an internal error.
There may not be another UK GE. It looks distinctly possible that the Scottish nationalists are going to win their legal argument to hold Indy Ref 2. That might happen before the next UK GE, although the timing is tight.
I can see a vote happening, if they cannot hold out after the SNP win a stonking majority, but while it need not play out exactly like Brexit (it could be worse!) and article 50 is not a thing, years of wrangling seems likely so I'd assume they'd need at least one more UK GE.
Too many on this site are resigned to indyref and the SNP narrative. Things look bleak now- but that things can change quickly during a pandemic. Plus practilities of independence haven't even begun to have been discussed (not least a huge amount of debt, currency issues, hard border..etc)
I am sadly resigned, as I fear the practical issues will no longer sway enough people from what they emotionally want, and not enough feel positive about the UK to change that.
I desperately hope I am wrong.
I suspect in the long run the most likely way to avoid Scottish independence is for someone (SKS?) to offer a referendum on the basis that it is only on the ratification of an actual agreement, so that there could be genuine discussion of the pros and cons and a process with grown ups in the room about what is involved. One can imagine SKS saying that he has learned from Brexit how not to do a referendum. The SNP would struggle to disagree and keep a straight face. And Unionists might enjoy the sight of the SNP trying to wriggle away from having to have an actual set of concrete proposals to vote on.
You're confusing the SNP in 2014 with the Tories and the BXP three years later. Not least becausde independence is at least a clear end state, in complete contrast to the changes in Brexit goals since 2017.
I have this thick document, nay book, on my bookshelf published by the Scottish Government in advance of indyref which comprises an "actual set of concrete proposals"
The reference to the next UKGE might contain an internal error.
There may not be another UK GE. It looks distinctly possible that the Scottish nationalists are going to win their legal argument to hold Indy Ref 2. That might happen before the next UK GE, although the timing is tight.
Even if Scotland goes we would remain the UK even as we remained the UK after most of the Republic of Ireland left.
Scotland isn't what made our country the UK. Irish Unification would mean the end of the UK.
You mean, we would be a united kingdom of England, Wales and, erm, possibly Northern Ireland depending on what happens after the latest Brexit round?
Scottish independence would mean the end of GB, which is one of the two constituent parts of the UK.
As for the Republic of Ireland, it was declared into existence in 1949. The UK stopped being the UK of GB and I and became the UK of GB and NI in 1922. If a UK continues after Scottish independence it would have to be the UK of something else and NI.
Perhaps it would be the UK of Southern GB and Northern I, a double case of the directionality that is so highly thought of in US academe.
Incidentally, GB doesn't have the right to independence - see the GFA.
I caught the news at 1am and it was a bit of a shock. On reflection and having seen a few polls with a more familiar narrative I've decided it probably isn't so bad for Biden.
Pulpstar (ty for the thread, btw) and Alistair did a good job on the cross-tables, although like EiT I don't like to dismiss a surprising poll without good reason. I think it's best to take the Seltzer at face value.
Trump did win Iowa by 9 in 2016 so if he wins by 7 this year he probably just about loses the Presidency, all other things being equal. So it's not *that* sensationally good for him.
Emerson has been a tough pollster for Biden so their three results today actually represent pretty encouraging signs for him. Other polls rather support this view so whilst I now have Iowa definitely in the red column, I'm still seeing a comfortable win for Sleepy.
The Iowa/Selzer poll does however seem to scotch the notion of a Biden landslide. He'll probably be happy enough with a regular win and small Senate majority, which is about where we're headed at the moment.
It's true Emerson have been closer than most of the other pollsters but I do take more notice when a higher rated pollster has the states much closer than the less respected ones, So I can easily see Trump holding Iowa and Ohio but the recent ones i just posted for Nevada and Arizona are more concerning i feel to be within 2%, I was confident Biden would win both fairly comfortably, now not so sure
The ZOE app data looks like case growth has basically slowed to a crawl nationally too. If this starts to fall before the end of next week then it will be very clear that this lockdown isn't necessary and we're going to be destroying jobs for nothing.
The ZOE app data looks like case growth has basically slowed to a crawl nationally too. If this starts to fall before the end of next week then it will be very clear that this lockdown isn't necessary and we're going to be destroying jobs for nothing.
Far too little data to draw that conclusion. And even if the number of cases stays constant that’s still not sustainable.
In order to have an idea of the deaths that are already baked in, I had a play with the existing data.
Taking:
- ONS survey data for England as a sensible approximation for true infections per day, and interpolating between the centre points of each week (ie the ONS estimate for the week 2-8 Oct was 27900, that for the week 25 Sep-1 Oct was 17200; assign those numbers to the midpoint of each week (5 Oct and 28 Sep respectively) and multiply 17200 by the seventh root of (27900/17200) to get the approximate curve increase) for each date from late July onwards. - Average delay from infection to hospitalisation as 10 days; average delay from hospitalisation to death as 9 days (the latter taken from the ICNARC reports for the wave since August) - Coronavirus dashboard data for hospitalisations in England for D+10 - Coronavirus dashboard data for deaths in England for D+19 - Using 26 Oct as cutoff for fatalities (possibly should cut off a little earlier, would expect a slight trailing down in comparison to previous days as more deaths should be added) - Deriving infection hospitalisation rate and infection fatality rate for England from the above. - Smoothing by taking a seven day average and placing that average at the centre of the 7 days to avoid a lag of averaged data - (All of this will be very approximate, of course, but it should be usefully indicative)
We get:
It does look like you can see how the spread has shifted from younger to older - from a hospitalisation rate of c. 1.5% to 3.0-4.0%, and an IFR increasing from around 0.25% to between 0.5-1.0%.
The reference to the next UKGE might contain an internal error.
There may not be another UK GE. It looks distinctly possible that the Scottish nationalists are going to win their legal argument to hold Indy Ref 2. That might happen before the next UK GE, although the timing is tight.
I can see a vote happening, if they cannot hold out after the SNP win a stonking majority, but while it need not play out exactly like Brexit (it could be worse!) and article 50 is not a thing, years of wrangling seems likely so I'd assume they'd need at least one more UK GE.
Too many on this site are resigned to indyref and the SNP narrative. Things look bleak now- but that things can change quickly during a pandemic. Plus practilities of independence haven't even begun to have been discussed (not least a huge amount of debt, currency issues, hard border..etc)
Haven't even begun to have been discussed, except as an incessant, gurning chorus, week in week out.
...the indy argument will - and has - descended into using the same arguments that got us to brexit. Absolutely no difference.
No, there is a huge difference - many of the key pro-No arguments in 2014 have been discredited. Notably "Voting No is the only way to stay in Europe". You'd be surprised how much energy has gone on PB to claim that the No campaign argued the complete opposite.
..and the argument "vote yes" to join the EU is a long term project, with all the pain with potentially pegging a currency to sterling and attemping to join a union that relies on cross-border movement on an island as small as this one. If indy advocates were upfront and honest i.e. yes, there'll be medium term pain then I'll accept that. Otherwise all you're doing is pretending everything will be fine - exactly like Brexiters.
The ZOE app data looks like case growth has basically slowed to a crawl nationally too. If this starts to fall before the end of next week then it will be very clear that this lockdown isn't necessary and we're going to be destroying jobs for nothing.
I wouldn't personally pay any attention to ZOE. The guy's true colours were really shown last week when he flogged off the personal data of all his clients to Sam Cam's commercial company who then bombarded every user with emails. Tim Spector's non-apology only made matters worse and people are deserting him.
On the subject of Wagner, are there any Wagner enthusiasts out there? A friend, now deceased, had as his main aim in life to convert all he knew to a love of Wagner. So far it hasn't worked in my case but I'm willing to give it another go. I am thinking of buying a CD or DVD of a Wagner opera; which one should a novice go for?
The last 3-5 days are incomplete. This doesn't not mean anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete. Anyone using this data to draw any other conclusion about the last 3-5 days will be
1) locked down with Piers Morgan, Piers Corbyn and an insane lawyer in his wife's kimono. In a 1 bed flat. For 3 years 2) Fed only on pineapple pizza 3) Only allowed to access ConservativeHome during their lockdown
On the subject of Wagner, are there any Wagner enthusiasts out there? A friend, now deceased, had as his main aim in life to convert all he knew to a love of Wagner. So far it hasn't worked in my case but I'm willing to give it another go. I am thinking of buying a CD or DVD of a Wagner opera; which one should a novice go for?
That needs an entire blog site of its own. However: Solti's Ring is special. If you don't like his Die Walkure you aren't going to like Wagner. Try the end of Act 3. And Act 1. And all the rest of it. Janowski's Ring also great stuff. His Siegfried is wonderful.
Using Andrew Porter's terrific English translation of the Ring helps.
Pappano's Tristan und Isolde also recommended.
Incidentally, harking back to an earlier discussion, could Trump be persuaded to use Adge Cutler and the Wurzel's little masterpiece 'The Champion Dung Spreader' is his campaigns? A fine song, though very unWagnerian.
UK case data by specimen date, and scaled to 100K population
The last 3-5 days are incomplete. This doesn't not mean anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete. Anyone using this data to draw any other conclusion about the last 3-5 days will be
1) locked down with Piers Morgan, Piers Corbyn and an insane lawyer in his wife's kimono. In a 1 bed flat. For 3 years 2) Fed only on pineapple pizza 3) Only allowed to access ConservativeHome during their lockdown
If the case data turns out to be accurate to the ONS data then the government is going to have to go into spin overdrive to try and credit the drop to the lockdown.
It looks increasingly like the R has dropped below 1 in Scotland, London, NI, NE, NW and most other parts of the country except Wales. If the ONS confirms it then Nicola is in a stunningly strong position come Friday to reject a lockdown and watch cases drop and get furlough and other business support money.
Boris has let the scientists use big numbers to scare him into an unnecessary lockdown and we're all going to pay for it. The scientists will feel none of the consequences of their awful models, they won't even be sacked and will end up being honoured. It's absolutely galling how rubbish the politicians are across all parties.
23,254 new cases today.
Ferguson's prediction in March: Sweden without lockdown 85,000 deaths
Actual outcome in October: Sweden without lockdown 5,900 deaths.
How could a competent government hire someone who couldn't predict foot and mouth, BSE *or* swine flu?
Without mitigation ≠ without lockdown.
And wasn't the prediction, either. Someone completely different in Sweden claimed they ran the Imperial model with their own assumptions and got 85,000 deaths. The csv Imperial put up at the time is still available online and shows very different numbers, but few who push the myth have bothered to check.
The reference to the next UKGE might contain an internal error.
There may not be another UK GE. It looks distinctly possible that the Scottish nationalists are going to win their legal argument to hold Indy Ref 2. That might happen before the next UK GE, although the timing is tight.
I can see a vote happening, if they cannot hold out after the SNP win a stonking majority, but while it need not play out exactly like Brexit (it could be worse!) and article 50 is not a thing, years of wrangling seems likely so I'd assume they'd need at least one more UK GE.
Too many on this site are resigned to indyref and the SNP narrative. Things look bleak now- but that things can change quickly during a pandemic. Plus practilities of independence haven't even begun to have been discussed (not least a huge amount of debt, currency issues, hard border..etc)
I am sadly resigned, as I fear the practical issues will no longer sway enough people from what they emotionally want, and not enough feel positive about the UK to change that.
I desperately hope I am wrong.
I suspect in the long run the most likely way to avoid Scottish independence is for someone (SKS?) to offer a referendum on the basis that it is only on the ratification of an actual agreement, so that there could be genuine discussion of the pros and cons and a process with grown ups in the room about what is involved. One can imagine SKS saying that he has learned from Brexit how not to do a referendum. The SNP would struggle to disagree and keep a straight face. And Unionists might enjoy the sight of the SNP trying to wriggle away from having to have an actual set of concrete proposals to vote on.
You're confusing the SNP in 2014 with the Tories and the BXP three years later. Not least becausde independence is at least a clear end state, in complete contrast to the changes in Brexit goals since 2017.
I have this thick document, nay book, on my bookshelf published by the Scottish Government in advance of indyref which comprises an "actual set of concrete proposals"
That wasn't an agreement. It said zilch concrete even about the desired relationship with rUK, let alone any agreed one. There wasn't an agreed one to say anything about. What would the rights be of Scottish and rUK citizens in the other territory, for example? State health treatment? Permanent residence? Voting rights? Dual citizenship? Those come to mind immediately as among the grown-up questions. (Nor famously did it say what currency Scotland would use.) It was thick though.
And for obvious reasons, before any talks between possibly-to-become rUK and Scotgov it would have to be known (yes or no) whether an iScotland would belong to the EU or not.
The last 3-5 days are incomplete. This doesn't not mean anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete. Anyone using this data to draw any other conclusion about the last 3-5 days will be
1) locked down with Piers Morgan, Piers Corbyn and an insane lawyer in his wife's kimono. In a 1 bed flat. For 3 years 2) Fed only on pineapple pizza 3) Only allowed to access ConservativeHome during their lockdown
Comments
https://mobile.twitter.com/RP131/status/1322934868452528129
My analysis? When I say 'win big' I think we are talking upward of 330 EV's. I think it's quite possible looking at these polls that Biden is going over 350.
As the New York Times specifies, no presidential candidate from either side has gone into the last day of a US election with such a commanding polling lead since Obama in 2008.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/us/politics/biden-trump-poll-florida-pennsylvania-wisconsin.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Johnson is quite funny. In a kind of middling 1980s sitcom kind of way. Think Terry & June.
Trump is of course a comic God. Only a truly imaginative and funny individual could have created such a comic monster. Think Father Jack or Ubu Roi.
Have you changed your assessment of Johnson’s comedic abilities ?
As I keep saying, we’re an island. We have that advantage unlike say Germany yet they’re still beating us overall.
There may not be another UK GE. It looks distinctly possible that the Scottish nationalists are going to win their legal argument to hold Indy Ref 2. That might happen before the next UK GE, although the timing is tight.
Plus, plus there was a third party candidate in 1992 that took hefty votes from the GOP.
Scotland isn't what made our country the UK. Irish Unification would mean the end of the UK.
Men currently make up less than 41% of voters.
I believe that makes it a better than 1.9 shot.
" .. the math is just not there for Trump."
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
When Joe Biden wins on Tuesday that's going to render Johnson's little Englanders even more isolated on the global stage. And his plans on the Irish border are going to be in trouble.
I apologise for allowing my glee to show. It's very sad really.
It looks increasingly like the R has dropped below 1 in Scotland, London, NI, NE, NW and most other parts of the country except Wales. If the ONS confirms it then Nicola is in a stunningly strong position come Friday to reject a lockdown and watch cases drop and get furlough and other business support money.
Boris has let the scientists use big numbers to scare him into an unnecessary lockdown and we're all going to pay for it. The scientists will feel none of the consequences of their awful models, they won't even be sacked and will end up being honoured. It's absolutely galling how rubbish the politicians are across all parties.
One of my larger state bets currently.
He is too lazy even to ask the right questions, and we will all suffer for his indolence.
I find I can no longer listen to their music, or just don't, whereas once I adored them (and Portishead who were also mentioned). It's to do with memories mainly.
I also loved Morcheeba.
The Swamp That Birthed Trump
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/01/swamp-that-birthed-trump-433697
... Trump, facing next week’s Election Day reckoning, got to Washington and the White House by commanding unrivaled amounts of attention and inflaming enduring racial and cultural divides, but also by saying he was going to “drain the swamp.” That last part was always the most elementally specious pledge. Trump has not only not done that—“The Swamp That Trump Built,” read a recent headline in the New York Times—but it would have gone against every fiber of his being to even try. Trump’s most comfortable habitat from the get-go was the pay to play and the quid pro quo of the unscrupulous nexus of business and politics. The swamp is what made him. The swamp is what he has mined. The swamp is all he’s ever known.
The recent release of Without Compromise, the anthology of work by the late longtime Village Voice reporter Wayne Barrett, makes for a timely reminder of this reality. Barrett, who died the day before Trump’s inauguration in January 2017, wrote the seminal profile of Trump—in January of 1979. He was the first journalist who took Trump seriously. He looked past the glitz and bore down on the graft. Barrett’s job certainly wasn’t to cover Trump per se. He was just all but forced to focus on him, beginning when both were in their early 30s, because his beat was state and municipal corruption and Trump’s deals always seemed to attract the most notorious players. It was a self-appointed task that kept Barrett busy for the better part of the next 40 years...
Johnson's limitations have been cruelly & painfully exposed by the pandemic.
In balmier times, his unfunny 1980s sitcom act would not be so misplaced and dire.
We would not be laughing, but we would not cry.
I said that if the Troubles were to return I would blame the terrorists and the threat of terrorism does not supercede democracy.
I remember Mike amongst others being horrified at your comment, rightly so. Many of us remember those dark days and never want to return to them. Nor does Joe Biden.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322926926693105671?s=19
A return to those days is the last thing I wanted but I also said the threat of that couldn't trump democracy.
Ah, the denial stage. I've been there.
It is declining amongst students from its peak but is increasing in the elderly and vulnerable. That's bad.
I desperately hope I am wrong.
Johnson’s always seemed a more conceited and less amusing version of Tommy Cooper.
Arizona Biden 48% Trump 46%
Nevada Biden 49% Trump 47%
Oof,,,,very close,,,,was hoping for more than 2% for both of those
https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
I caught the news at 1am and it was a bit of a shock. On reflection and having seen a few polls with a more familiar narrative I've decided it probably isn't so bad for Biden.
Pulpstar (ty for the thread, btw) and Alistair did a good job on the cross-tables, although like EiT I don't like to dismiss a surprising poll without good reason. I think it's best to take the Seltzer at face value.
Trump did win Iowa by 9 in 2016 so if he wins by 7 this year he probably just about loses the Presidency, all other things being equal. So it's not *that* sensationally good for him.
Emerson has been a tough pollster for Biden so their three results today actually represent pretty encouraging signs for him. Other polls rather support this view so whilst I now have Iowa definitely in the red column, I'm still seeing a comfortable win for Sleepy.
The Iowa/Selzer poll does however seem to scotch the notion of a Biden landslide. He'll probably be happy enough with a regular win and small Senate majority, which is about where we're headed at the moment.
Sweden without lockdown 85,000 deaths
Actual outcome in October:
Sweden without lockdown 5,900 deaths.
How could a competent government hire someone who couldn't predict foot and mouth, BSE *or* swine flu?
It is bollocks of course, as in 2017 Labour were 63 seats short of even a nominal majority, and 75 short of a working majority.
It was a presentation designed to confuse the public into supporting the policy of lockdown. There was no other purpose for it.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/walmart-reverses-decision-remove-guns-ammo-store-shelves-n1245518
Kudos to them both.
He even salutes like Fred Scuttle.
I have this thick document, nay book, on my bookshelf published by the Scottish Government in advance of indyref which comprises an "actual set of concrete proposals"
As for the Republic of Ireland, it was declared into existence in 1949. The UK stopped being the UK of GB and I and became the UK of GB and NI in 1922. If a UK continues after Scottish independence it would have to be the UK of something else and NI.
Perhaps it would be the UK of Southern GB and Northern I, a double case of the directionality that is so highly thought of in US academe.
Incidentally, GB doesn't have the right to independence - see the GFA.
The ZOE app data looks like case growth has basically slowed to a crawl nationally too. If this starts to fall before the end of next week then it will be very clear that this lockdown isn't necessary and we're going to be destroying jobs for nothing.
Taking:
- ONS survey data for England as a sensible approximation for true infections per day, and interpolating between the centre points of each week (ie the ONS estimate for the week 2-8 Oct was 27900, that for the week 25 Sep-1 Oct was 17200; assign those numbers to the midpoint of each week (5 Oct and 28 Sep respectively) and multiply 17200 by the seventh root of (27900/17200) to get the approximate curve increase) for each date from late July onwards.
- Average delay from infection to hospitalisation as 10 days; average delay from hospitalisation to death as 9 days (the latter taken from the ICNARC reports for the wave since August)
- Coronavirus dashboard data for hospitalisations in England for D+10
- Coronavirus dashboard data for deaths in England for D+19
- Using 26 Oct as cutoff for fatalities (possibly should cut off a little earlier, would expect a slight trailing down in comparison to previous days as more deaths should be added)
- Deriving infection hospitalisation rate and infection fatality rate for England from the above.
- Smoothing by taking a seven day average and placing that average at the centre of the 7 days to avoid a lag of averaged data
-
(All of this will be very approximate, of course, but it should be usefully indicative)
We get:
It does look like you can see how the spread has shifted from younger to older - from a hospitalisation rate of c. 1.5% to 3.0-4.0%, and an IFR increasing from around 0.25% to between 0.5-1.0%.
Have I made any obvious errors or omissions?
He comes across as an unpleasant self-promoter.
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/fashion/samantha-cameron-coronavirus-symptom-tracker-app-cefinn-face-masks-b1134106.html
The last 3-5 days are incomplete. This doesn't not mean anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete. Anyone using this data to draw any other conclusion about the last 3-5 days will be
1) locked down with Piers Morgan, Piers Corbyn and an insane lawyer in his wife's kimono. In a 1 bed flat. For 3 years
2) Fed only on pineapple pizza
3) Only allowed to access ConservativeHome during their lockdown
Using Andrew Porter's terrific English translation of the Ring helps.
Pappano's Tristan und Isolde also recommended.
Incidentally, harking back to an earlier discussion, could Trump be persuaded to use Adge Cutler and the Wurzel's little masterpiece 'The Champion Dung Spreader' is his campaigns? A fine song, though very unWagnerian.
The last 3-5 days are incomplete. This doesn't not mean anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete. Anyone using this data to draw any other conclusion about the last 3-5 days will be
1) locked down with Piers Morgan, Piers Corbyn and an insane lawyer in his wife's kimono. In a 1 bed flat. For 3 years
2) Fed only on pineapple pizza
3) Only allowed to access ConservativeHome during their lockdown
Someone completely different in Sweden claimed they ran the Imperial model with their own assumptions and got 85,000 deaths.
The csv Imperial put up at the time is still available online and shows very different numbers, but few who push the myth have bothered to check.
And for obvious reasons, before any talks between possibly-to-become rUK and Scotgov it would have to be known (yes or no) whether an iScotland would belong to the EU or not.
The last 3-5 days are incomplete. This doesn't not mean anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete. Anyone using this data to draw any other conclusion about the last 3-5 days will be
1) locked down with Piers Morgan, Piers Corbyn and an insane lawyer in his wife's kimono. In a 1 bed flat. For 3 years
2) Fed only on pineapple pizza
3) Only allowed to access ConservativeHome during their lockdown