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Why this isn’t looking like 2016 redux – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,169
edited November 2020 in General
Why this isn’t looking like 2016 redux – politicalbetting.com

Generic ballot: Closing days of 2016 v 2020. One of these things is not like the other. pic.twitter.com/a0TMf3s3tc

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,670
    E pluribus unum.

    Solely so people can see and comment on this thread.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,099
    https://twitter.com/ArunFrey/status/1321796975013044224?s=20
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,670
    2020 really is a turd of a year.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2020/11/01/sir-bobby-charlton-diagnosed-dementia/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Hopefully so. There seems sufficient evidence that we wll not get a repeat, but I don't think many besides mysticrose are feeling super confident for Bide; there's more who are very confident on Trump, and massively more bedwetters for Biden.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Test
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    I’m back
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    FPT:
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Not a classic race, but it did have its moments.

    WB, Mr. Ping.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,099
    edited November 2020
    WTF....is this legit? At least making sure to observe French version of rule of 6.

    https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1322901680699150341?s=20
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,697
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322899819661303808
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322899821267689472
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    So, Mr Dancer, Hamilton just needs a couple of podiums to win the Championship?
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Emerson (A rated polls) are out for Michigan, Iowa, Ohio
    Michigan Biden 52% Trump 45%
    Iowa Trump 47% Biden 46%
    Ohio Biden 49% Trump 48%

    All 3 look about right to me though I epxected Trump to be up 1 or 2 in Ohio not down 1
    More state polls from Emerson later
    https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    There was a great comment from a few days ago (I forget who it was... the tin of beans guy perhaps?) that trump should be long odds and shortening, but instead he’s short odds and lengthening.

    I thing that captures well the weird politicalbettng market that is wh2020.

    Good luck to the punters.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    Mr. T, it's a done deal. Even if Hamilton took a prolonged holiday, Verstappen would probably be sufficient to stop Bottas getting the points he needs.

    Apparently Red Bull think the changes next year will be sufficient to allow them to build a competitive car. We shall see.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    ping said:

    There was a great comment from a few days ago (I forget who it was... the tin of beans guy perhaps?) that trump should be long odds and shortening, but instead he’s short odds and lengthening.

    I thing that captures well the weird politicalbettng market that is wh2020.

    Good luck to the punters.

    If Trump loses narrowly, we’ll have to stop calling @kinabalu Captain Heinzsight.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    WTF....is this legit? At least making sure to observe French version of rule of 6.

    https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1322901680699150341?s=20

    France has a lot of real, fully automatic weapons on the illegal market. Mostly from the former Yugoslavia/Eastern Europe I believe.

    Ironically, unlike in America where the police behave as if every traffic stop is the prelude to the North Hollywood Shootout, and there are basically no full auto weapons used by criminals.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. T, it's a done deal. Even if Hamilton took a prolonged holiday, Verstappen would probably be sufficient to stop Bottas getting the points he needs.

    Apparently Red Bull think the changes next year will be sufficient to allow them to build a competitive car. We shall see.

    Will Albon be replaced?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,099
    edited November 2020
    You think all the shit Boris got over his rule of six....Look at the French equivalent. Its 6 maximum, well no, kinda, maybe, but its the law right, well no, its not enforceable, so no its a recommendation...kinda...sort of...just use common sense ok.

    https://www.thelocal.fr/20201015/covid-19-what-you-should-know-about-frances-new-rule-of-six
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,670
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322899819661303808
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322899821267689472

    "Past on'?

    Are we sure English is Trump's first language?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322899819661303808
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322899821267689472

    "Past on'?

    Are we sure English is Trump's first language?
    We can ignore Star Trek. Aliens from Alpha Centauri definitely do not speak English.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    F1: post-race ramble:
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/11/imola-post-race-analysis-2020.html
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    Mr. T, with Perez and Hulkenberg on the market they'd be fools to stick with Albon. He's just not fast or consistent enough.

    Promoted too early, but there's no room for having a second driver who isn't cutting the mustard.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,998
    Off topic (probably), a tweet about the Sky History Nazi wood chopper farrago led to this on a list of tv shows cancelled after one episode:

    'Heil Honey I'm Home! (September 30, 1990)
    Comedy on British satellite channel Galaxy that spoofed American sitcoms of the 1950s and 1960s by featuring caricatures of Adolf Hitler and Eva Braun who live in matrimonial bliss until they become neighbours to a Jewish couple.[5] The series was cancelled not only due to controversy but also due to British Satellite Broadcasting's merger with Sky; seven other episodes (which show a plot where the Hitler family would have murdered their neighbours) were filmed but not aired.'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3xljgev

    Apparently the first episode is on Youtube though I'm not sure if my interest is piqued quite enough to watch it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,680
    edited November 2020
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322899819661303808
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322899821267689472

    Wasn't grovelling to Trump and allowing him to wreck some beautiful Scottish countryside also one of the blots on Eck's copybook?
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Thanks Morris.

    Great thread btw, @pulpstar

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,834
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    You think all the shit Boris got over his rule of six....Look at the French equivalent. Its 6 maximum, well no, kinda, maybe, but its the law right, well no, its not enforceable, so no its a recommendation...kinda...sort of...just use common sense ok.

    https://www.thelocal.fr/20201015/covid-19-what-you-should-know-about-frances-new-rule-of-six

    The rule of six was one of the better and less criticised Boris rules, it was the more complicated rules that he and his ministers couldnt explain or even remember but still made law that got the most stick.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Cyclefree said:

    ClippP said:

    Cyclefree said:

    LostPassword said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Daughter has just noted that the government has made things significantly worse for pubs and restaurants than in the first lockdown in one respect.

    Even if you have a licence to sell as an off-licence, you cannot sell alcohol as a takeaway. So all the beer and other drinks which pubs have cannot now be sold and that stock will be wasted.

    Why? During the last lockdown Daughter - at some expense - got such a licence so she could sell alcohol with her takeaway meals. Now she can’t. What on earth is the reason for doing that? It’s pure spite - especially as supermarkets will be able to sell alcohol.

    Letters on their way to our MP - Boris’s PPS as it happens - and to Tim Farron.

    Yes, that was noted on here last night and it doesn't seem logical to me. You can do takeaways, but not including your main product. What a mess.

    In terms of R it's hardly going to make much of a difference either way. It's a sign that government is too focused on the minutiae of lockdown rules to pay enough attention to other ways of reducing transmission of the virus.
    And it was also not what was done last time. So someone decided to put that bit in what government produced last night. It was not simply a cut and paste job. They made the deliberate decision to stop those with a off-licence selling their product on a takeaway basis. They made a deliberate decision to favour supermarkets who can sell alcohol over other businesses, particularly those whose main business this is.

    Feels like spite to me not just stupidity. It is a kick in the teeth. I cannot begin to tell you how furious and upset Daughter is. Every little thing she has been trying to do to save her business, all the work she has put in for the last 2 years, her employees, her suppliers is being undermined.
    Just a thought, Mrs Cyclefree... Are you still going to vote Tory?
    Not sure why you have me down as a Tory. I vote Lib Dem for want of anything else.
    In fairness 'LD: for want of anything else' is not one of their more popular slogans, but has often been effective.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,099
    edited November 2020
    noneoftheabove said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    You think all the shit Boris got over his rule of six....Look at the French equivalent. Its 6 maximum, well no, kinda, maybe, but its the law right, well no, its not enforceable, so no its a recommendation...kinda...sort of...just use common sense ok.

    https://www.thelocal.fr/20201015/covid-19-what-you-should-know-about-frances-new-rule-of-six

    The rule of six was one of the better and less criticised Boris rules, it was the more complicated rules that he and his ministers couldnt explain or even remember but still made law that got the most stick.
    No, as soon as he announced it, there was all the stupid edge case questions about having two different ex-wives who look after my kids, and they have new kids and that will take us to 7, its unfair, and one of my kids is autistic and if they don't get both families together they will be mentally effected etc etc etc.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    You think all the shit Boris got over his rule of six....Look at the French equivalent. Its 6 maximum, well no, kinda, maybe, but its the law right, well no, its not enforceable, so no its a recommendation...kinda...sort of...just use common sense ok.

    https://www.thelocal.fr/20201015/covid-19-what-you-should-know-about-frances-new-rule-of-six

    The rule of six was one of the better and less criticised Boris rules, it was the more complicated rules that he and his ministers couldnt explain or even remember but still made law that got the most stick.
    No, as soon as he announced it, there was all the stupid edge case questions about having two different ex-wives who look after my kids, and they have new kids and that will take us to 7, its unfair etc etc etc.
    Some of us also worried about what would happen to dear old SeanT.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    The breakdown on those 3 Emerson polls I mentioned is here.
    https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/super-poll-sunday-polling-in-the-midwest-shows-biden-ahead-in-michigan-and-tight-races-in-ohio-and-iowa
    I think PA is one of the ones they release later today, very interested to see that one, if its under 4% I might get nervous
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    2020 really is a turd of a year.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2020/11/01/sir-bobby-charlton-diagnosed-dementia/

    I think that this has been fairly obvious for a while. I suspect that the bigger, much heavier leather footballs that he used to head will again be looked at.

    Very sad though, a truly brilliant player and an exceptional man.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ClippP said:

    Cyclefree said:

    LostPassword said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Daughter has just noted that the government has made things significantly worse for pubs and restaurants than in the first lockdown in one respect.

    Even if you have a licence to sell as an off-licence, you cannot sell alcohol as a takeaway. So all the beer and other drinks which pubs have cannot now be sold and that stock will be wasted.

    Why? During the last lockdown Daughter - at some expense - got such a licence so she could sell alcohol with her takeaway meals. Now she can’t. What on earth is the reason for doing that? It’s pure spite - especially as supermarkets will be able to sell alcohol.

    Letters on their way to our MP - Boris’s PPS as it happens - and to Tim Farron.

    Yes, that was noted on here last night and it doesn't seem logical to me. You can do takeaways, but not including your main product. What a mess.

    In terms of R it's hardly going to make much of a difference either way. It's a sign that government is too focused on the minutiae of lockdown rules to pay enough attention to other ways of reducing transmission of the virus.
    And it was also not what was done last time. So someone decided to put that bit in what government produced last night. It was not simply a cut and paste job. They made the deliberate decision to stop those with a off-licence selling their product on a takeaway basis. They made a deliberate decision to favour supermarkets who can sell alcohol over other businesses, particularly those whose main business this is.

    Feels like spite to me not just stupidity. It is a kick in the teeth. I cannot begin to tell you how furious and upset Daughter is. Every little thing she has been trying to do to save her business, all the work she has put in for the last 2 years, her employees, her suppliers is being undermined.
    Just a thought, Mrs Cyclefree... Are you still going to vote Tory?
    Not sure why you have me down as a Tory. I vote Lib Dem for want of anything else.
    In fairness 'LD: for want of anything else' is not one of their more popular slogans, but has often been effective.
    I didn't realise the others were supposed to be serious.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.

    I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,099
    edited November 2020
    Timeline of the 24 hours that shaped lockdown 2.0: How leak of plans for a new four-week shutdown in November and the subsequent political chaos forced Boris Johnson into action

    Early evening: Downing Street is informed that ITV political editor Robert Peston has received a 'read-out of the whole meeting', according to the Times.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8902339/Twenty-four-hours-shaped-lockdown-2-leak-plans-four-week-shutdown-forced-PM-act.html

    Who is leaking to Prof Peston?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322899819661303808
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322899821267689472

    "Past on'?

    Are we sure English is Trump's first language?
    Tbf. Have noticed past for passed a number of times lately in different contexts. A bit like "doing ones upmost to succeed."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ClippP said:

    Cyclefree said:

    LostPassword said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Daughter has just noted that the government has made things significantly worse for pubs and restaurants than in the first lockdown in one respect.

    Even if you have a licence to sell as an off-licence, you cannot sell alcohol as a takeaway. So all the beer and other drinks which pubs have cannot now be sold and that stock will be wasted.

    Why? During the last lockdown Daughter - at some expense - got such a licence so she could sell alcohol with her takeaway meals. Now she can’t. What on earth is the reason for doing that? It’s pure spite - especially as supermarkets will be able to sell alcohol.

    Letters on their way to our MP - Boris’s PPS as it happens - and to Tim Farron.

    Yes, that was noted on here last night and it doesn't seem logical to me. You can do takeaways, but not including your main product. What a mess.

    In terms of R it's hardly going to make much of a difference either way. It's a sign that government is too focused on the minutiae of lockdown rules to pay enough attention to other ways of reducing transmission of the virus.
    And it was also not what was done last time. So someone decided to put that bit in what government produced last night. It was not simply a cut and paste job. They made the deliberate decision to stop those with a off-licence selling their product on a takeaway basis. They made a deliberate decision to favour supermarkets who can sell alcohol over other businesses, particularly those whose main business this is.

    Feels like spite to me not just stupidity. It is a kick in the teeth. I cannot begin to tell you how furious and upset Daughter is. Every little thing she has been trying to do to save her business, all the work she has put in for the last 2 years, her employees, her suppliers is being undermined.
    Just a thought, Mrs Cyclefree... Are you still going to vote Tory?
    Not sure why you have me down as a Tory. I vote Lib Dem for want of anything else.
    In fairness 'LD: for want of anything else' is not one of their more popular slogans, but has often been effective.
    I didn't realise the others were supposed to be serious.
    I rcall a quite long one from years ago which Paul Merton noted looked like they came up with two slogans, couldn't decide which was best, so just put them together.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Btw, in the few years since I was posting as @Pong my politics has swung from the internationalist-liberal-left to a soft nationalist-centre-right. I’m very comfortable with the new emerging boris-starmer consensus.

    I’ve surprised myself tbh.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    Adam Edelman of NBC looks at the close race in Georgia :

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/it-s-too-important-now-record-turnout-black-voters-fuel-n1245416
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,883
    Stark_Dawning said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322899819661303808
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322899821267689472

    Wasn't grovelling to Trump and allowing him to wreck some beautiful Scottish countryside also one of the blots on Eck's copybook?
    That was the local LDs who put the SG into an impossible position - most locals wanted jobs or believed the promises, whereas ...

    The later discussions between Messrs Trump and Salmond made very interesting reading, especially when Mr Trump realised Mr Salmond wouldn't do what he wanted. It was an early insight into the last four years of world history.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,804
    ping said:

    Btw, in the few years since I was posting as @Pong my politics has swung from the internationalist-liberal-left to a soft nationalist-centre-right. I’m very comfortable with the new emerging boris-starmer consensus.

    I’ve surprised myself tbh.

    Did you go boo?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,680
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Off topic (probably), a tweet about the Sky History Nazi wood chopper farrago led to this on a list of tv shows cancelled after one episode:

    'Heil Honey I'm Home! (September 30, 1990)
    Comedy on British satellite channel Galaxy that spoofed American sitcoms of the 1950s and 1960s by featuring caricatures of Adolf Hitler and Eva Braun who live in matrimonial bliss until they become neighbours to a Jewish couple.[5] The series was cancelled not only due to controversy but also due to British Satellite Broadcasting's merger with Sky; seven other episodes (which show a plot where the Hitler family would have murdered their neighbours) were filmed but not aired.'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3xljgev

    Apparently the first episode is on Youtube though I'm not sure if my interest is piqued quite enough to watch it.

    Interesting. Connoisseurs of cancelled sit-coms might also be interested in the curious affair of Hardwicke House.

    https://www.britishclassiccomedy.co.uk/heres-one-youve-probably-missed#:~:text=Hardwicke House,air after just two episodes.

    I was obsessed with it for a time, having watched the original broadcasts and hearing the rumour that the tapes had been wiped. However, a video-to-digital version did surface on YouTube a few years back.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    kle4 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.

    I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
    Indeed no. One is a rich person who pretends to be a political outsider but is responsible for blatant cronyism, who makes unaffordable promises he has no intention of keeping, who tells extraordinary lies that he seems surprised nobody believes and who is not on speaking terms with senior figures in his own party even though a large part of the base love him.

    And the other is the President of the United States.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    edited November 2020
    kle4 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.

    I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
    The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: post-race ramble:
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/11/imola-post-race-analysis-2020.html

    Hamilton was lucky with the safety car but he probably had enough to come out ahead after a stunning series of lap records after the other 2 pitted. That showed, once again, that he is a different class to all except possibly Verstappen who was unlucky today. Far too hard to overtake to make it a genuinely exciting race. If Verstappen had been able to get past Bottas earlier and keep 4 tyres on his car it might have been more interesting.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,617
    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322647175789219840

    The positivity rate there is staggering.
    Prepare to be even more staggered:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322578756511375364

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322582337293529089

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322398986385457152

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322329888079175686

    By comparison:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322593265196142593

    Note the difference in hospital usage as well.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    edited November 2020
    Mr. L, I agree with that assessment. Hamilton still would've won.

    Annoyed for my Perez winner without the top three bet that Racing Point screwed themselves, but there we are.

    Edited extra bit: although it was a net positive for my McLaren winner without Mercedes/Red Bull bet, so...
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,804
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ClippP said:

    Cyclefree said:

    LostPassword said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Daughter has just noted that the government has made things significantly worse for pubs and restaurants than in the first lockdown in one respect.

    Even if you have a licence to sell as an off-licence, you cannot sell alcohol as a takeaway. So all the beer and other drinks which pubs have cannot now be sold and that stock will be wasted.

    Why? During the last lockdown Daughter - at some expense - got such a licence so she could sell alcohol with her takeaway meals. Now she can’t. What on earth is the reason for doing that? It’s pure spite - especially as supermarkets will be able to sell alcohol.

    Letters on their way to our MP - Boris’s PPS as it happens - and to Tim Farron.

    Yes, that was noted on here last night and it doesn't seem logical to me. You can do takeaways, but not including your main product. What a mess.

    In terms of R it's hardly going to make much of a difference either way. It's a sign that government is too focused on the minutiae of lockdown rules to pay enough attention to other ways of reducing transmission of the virus.
    And it was also not what was done last time. So someone decided to put that bit in what government produced last night. It was not simply a cut and paste job. They made the deliberate decision to stop those with a off-licence selling their product on a takeaway basis. They made a deliberate decision to favour supermarkets who can sell alcohol over other businesses, particularly those whose main business this is.

    Feels like spite to me not just stupidity. It is a kick in the teeth. I cannot begin to tell you how furious and upset Daughter is. Every little thing she has been trying to do to save her business, all the work she has put in for the last 2 years, her employees, her suppliers is being undermined.
    Just a thought, Mrs Cyclefree... Are you still going to vote Tory?
    Not sure why you have me down as a Tory. I vote Lib Dem for want of anything else.
    In fairness 'LD: for want of anything else' is not one of their more popular slogans, but has often been effective.
    It'll do.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,998
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Off topic (probably), a tweet about the Sky History Nazi wood chopper farrago led to this on a list of tv shows cancelled after one episode:

    'Heil Honey I'm Home! (September 30, 1990)
    Comedy on British satellite channel Galaxy that spoofed American sitcoms of the 1950s and 1960s by featuring caricatures of Adolf Hitler and Eva Braun who live in matrimonial bliss until they become neighbours to a Jewish couple.[5] The series was cancelled not only due to controversy but also due to British Satellite Broadcasting's merger with Sky; seven other episodes (which show a plot where the Hitler family would have murdered their neighbours) were filmed but not aired.'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3xljgev

    Apparently the first episode is on Youtube though I'm not sure if my interest is piqued quite enough to watch it.

    Interesting. Connoisseurs of cancelled sit-coms might also be interested in the curious affair of Hardwicke House.

    https://www.britishclassiccomedy.co.uk/heres-one-youve-probably-missed#:~:text=Hardwicke House,air after just two episodes.

    I was obsessed with it for a time, having watched the original broadcasts and hearing the rumour that the tapes had been wiped. However, a video-to-digital version did surface on YouTube a few years back.
    Can't remember it but good cast. Is that Tony Slattery on the right of the pic?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,099
    edited November 2020
    another_richard said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322647175789219840

    The positivity rate there is staggering.
    Prepare to be even more staggered:

    twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322578756511375364

    twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322582337293529089

    twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322398986385457152

    twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322329888079175686

    By comparison:

    twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322593265196142593

    Note the difference in hospital usage as well.

    Remember when everybody was pointing to Italy and saying well they seem to be doing well, little sign of second wave.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,222
    ydoethur said:

    ping said:

    There was a great comment from a few days ago (I forget who it was... the tin of beans guy perhaps?) that trump should be long odds and shortening, but instead he’s short odds and lengthening.

    I thing that captures well the weird politicalbettng market that is wh2020.

    Good luck to the punters.

    If Trump loses narrowly, we’ll have to stop calling @kinabalu Captain Heinzsight.
    OTOH if he somehow wins it will be all over for me. I'll be a sad and sorry has-bean.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,617
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    another_richard said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322647175789219840

    The positivity rate there is staggering.
    Prepare to be even more staggered:

    twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322578756511375364

    twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322582337293529089

    twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322398986385457152

    twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322329888079175686

    By comparison:

    twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322593265196142593

    Note the difference in hospital usage as well.

    Remember when everybody was pointing to Italy and saying well they seem to be doing well, little sign of second wave.
    New cases in Italy
    03/10/20 2,844
    10/10/20 5,724
    17/10/20 10,925
    24/10/20 19,644
    31/10/20 31,758
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    kle4 said:

    Hopefully so. There seems sufficient evidence that we wll not get a repeat, but I don't think many besides mysticrose are feeling super confident for Bide; there's more who are very confident on Trump, and massively more bedwetters for Biden.

    I am pretty chilled, and think Biden will win comfortably. This is my latest chart, but may want to flip Iowa back pale red.

    image
    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,834
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    You think all the shit Boris got over his rule of six....Look at the French equivalent. Its 6 maximum, well no, kinda, maybe, but its the law right, well no, its not enforceable, so no its a recommendation...kinda...sort of...just use common sense ok.

    https://www.thelocal.fr/20201015/covid-19-what-you-should-know-about-frances-new-rule-of-six

    The rule of six was one of the better and less criticised Boris rules, it was the more complicated rules that he and his ministers couldnt explain or even remember but still made law that got the most stick.
    No, as soon as he announced it, there was all the stupid edge case questions about having two different ex-wives who look after my kids, and they have new kids and that will take us to 7, its unfair, and one of my kids is autistic and if they don't get both families together they will be mentally effected etc etc etc.
    Less criticised doesnt mean not criticised.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    DavidL said:

    another_richard said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322647175789219840

    The positivity rate there is staggering.
    Prepare to be even more staggered:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322578756511375364

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322582337293529089

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322398986385457152

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322329888079175686

    By comparison:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322593265196142593

    Note the difference in hospital usage as well.

    My daughter is flying from Edinburgh to Paris tomorrow and then taking the train up to Calais to work as a volunteer helping refugees for 2 weeks. As a father I am both worried sick and extremely proud of her at the same time.
    Tell her to wear a face shield in addition to a mask. It has proven useful in reducing infection rates in frontline healthcare workers and (I believe, less sure on this second) in public transport - more so than either a mask or a face shield on its own.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2020
    MightyAlex said:

    kle4 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.

    I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
    The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
    The parallels between Corbyn and Trump are remarkable. Cyclefree did an excellent thread header commenting on it but you can dig much deeper.

    Between Boris and Biden it is more the situation than the people but there are some similarities.

    Both gaffe-prone.

    Both could have been natural successors last time (as Veep/figurehead of Vote Leave).

    Both never ended up running last time and beaten by a female rival instead, due to lack of support for them getting the top job from within their own party.

    Biden dismissed as past it/too old/senile like Boris is dismissed as clownish/lazy/unserious.

    Both "good enough" to defeat the opponent they're faced with.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    ping said:

    There was a great comment from a few days ago (I forget who it was... the tin of beans guy perhaps?) that trump should be long odds and shortening, but instead he’s short odds and lengthening.

    I thing that captures well the weird politicalbettng market that is wh2020.

    Good luck to the punters.

    If Trump loses narrowly, we’ll have to stop calling @kinabalu Captain Heinzsight.
    OTOH if he somehow wins it will be all over for me. I'll be a sad and sorry has-bean.
    Taking a broad view, I wouldn't do anything lentil the results are in.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    .
    TimT said:

    DavidL said:

    another_richard said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322647175789219840

    The positivity rate there is staggering.
    Prepare to be even more staggered:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322578756511375364

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322582337293529089

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322398986385457152

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322329888079175686

    By comparison:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322593265196142593

    Note the difference in hospital usage as well.

    My daughter is flying from Edinburgh to Paris tomorrow and then taking the train up to Calais to work as a volunteer helping refugees for 2 weeks. As a father I am both worried sick and extremely proud of her at the same time.
    Tell her to wear a face shield in addition to a mask. It has proven useful in reducing infection rates in frontline healthcare workers and (I believe, less sure on this second) in public transport - more so than either a mask or a face shield on its own.
    Make the mask an N95 one, if possible.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Philip_Thompson said:

    MightyAlex said:

    kle4 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.

    I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
    The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
    The parallels between Corbyn and Trump are remarkable. Cyclefree did an excellent thread header commenting on it but you can dig much deeper.

    Between Boris and Biden it is more the situation than the people but there are some similarities.

    Both gaffe-prone.

    Both could have been natural successors last time (as Veep/figurehead of Vote Leave).

    Both never ended up running last time and beaten by a female rival instead, due to lack of support for them getting the top job from within their own party.

    Biden dismissed as past it/too old/senile like Boris is dismissed as clownish/lazy/unserious.

    Both "good enough" to defeat the opponent they're faced with.
    BJ - Britain Trump (Not Biden)
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 435
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    ping said:

    There was a great comment from a few days ago (I forget who it was... the tin of beans guy perhaps?) that trump should be long odds and shortening, but instead he’s short odds and lengthening.

    I thing that captures well the weird politicalbettng market that is wh2020.

    Good luck to the punters.

    If Trump loses narrowly, we’ll have to stop calling @kinabalu Captain Heinzsight.
    OTOH if he somehow wins it will be all over for me. I'll be a sad and sorry has-bean.
    At least you'll have American democracy to keep you company.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    TimT said:

    DavidL said:

    another_richard said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322647175789219840

    The positivity rate there is staggering.
    Prepare to be even more staggered:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322578756511375364

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322582337293529089

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322398986385457152

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322329888079175686

    By comparison:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322593265196142593

    Note the difference in hospital usage as well.

    My daughter is flying from Edinburgh to Paris tomorrow and then taking the train up to Calais to work as a volunteer helping refugees for 2 weeks. As a father I am both worried sick and extremely proud of her at the same time.
    Tell her to wear a face shield in addition to a mask. It has proven useful in reducing infection rates in frontline healthcare workers and (I believe, less sure on this second) in public transport - more so than either a mask or a face shield on its own.
    Thanks. I will pass that on. The charities are in desperate straits with most of their (sane) volunteers calling off. The French police are apparently being very French seizing tents, sleeping bags and mobile phones to stop anyone getting too comfortable. She works in the local hospital who raised a surprising amount of money to take with her very fast last week.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,099
    edited November 2020
    another_richard said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    another_richard said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322647175789219840

    The positivity rate there is staggering.
    Prepare to be even more staggered:

    twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322578756511375364

    twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322582337293529089

    twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322398986385457152

    twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322329888079175686

    By comparison:

    twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322593265196142593

    Note the difference in hospital usage as well.

    Remember when everybody was pointing to Italy and saying well they seem to be doing well, little sign of second wave.
    New cases in Italy
    03/10/20 2,844
    10/10/20 5,724
    17/10/20 10,925
    24/10/20 19,644
    31/10/20 31,758
    A month is a long time....Apparently Italy has gone rapid test, rather than expanding massive PCR capacity, and was being heralded as the way forward only a few weeks ago.


    The Italian authorities are happy to be judged on results - from having had the worst record in Europe, they now boast one of the best. The daily figures for new cases are running at about half those in the UK, and much better than either France or Spain.

    They give considerable credit for that to a test and trace system that, rather than being mired in controversy and recrimination, is giving quick results and earning considerable public confidence.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2020-09-17/speed-versus-accuracy-why-italy-is-offering-30-minute-covid-19-tests-and-the-uk-isnt

    The problem is again, a) they are mostly waiting for the virus to come to them as people turn up for a test (even if it is rapid) and b) this false notion that you can manually track / trace.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    ydoethur said:

    ping said:

    There was a great comment from a few days ago (I forget who it was... the tin of beans guy perhaps?) that trump should be long odds and shortening, but instead he’s short odds and lengthening.

    I thing that captures well the weird politicalbettng market that is wh2020.

    Good luck to the punters.

    If Trump loses narrowly, we’ll have to stop calling @kinabalu Captain Heinzsight.
    Indeed.

    On topic, If trump wins then we have a polling credibility problem going forward.

    I think the chance of a serious, systemic polling error in trumps favour is small. Silver’s 10% seems about right to me, meaning the 1.5 on Biden is serious value.

    A 90% chance of a 50% return..... the only reason not to pile in is that there may be even better value bets. Anyone with any suggestions?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    MightyAlex said:

    kle4 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.

    I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
    The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
    I already did - situation not person. Some thought 2019 would be 2017 all over again, and it wasn't.

    I really don't know why people find applying the same logic to the US hard to understand, even if they disagree and do think 2020 will be 2016 redux.

    The personalities of those involved is irrelevant to the analogy.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    another_richard said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322647175789219840

    The positivity rate there is staggering.
    Prepare to be even more staggered:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322578756511375364

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322582337293529089

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322398986385457152

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322329888079175686

    By comparison:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322593265196142593

    Note the difference in hospital usage as well.

    What worries most is that it does seem that whatever governments do or don't do has little bearing on what is happening. The only conclusion seems to be that the public are not complying in sufficient numbers to stop the spread. I also suspect that the percentages of the miscreants is probably low but that is all it takes! Profoundly depressing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    ping said:

    There was a great comment from a few days ago (I forget who it was... the tin of beans guy perhaps?) that trump should be long odds and shortening, but instead he’s short odds and lengthening.

    I thing that captures well the weird politicalbettng market that is wh2020.

    Good luck to the punters.

    If Trump loses narrowly, we’ll have to stop calling @kinabalu Captain Heinzsight.
    OTOH if he somehow wins it will be all over for me. I'll be a sad and sorry has-bean.
    It's not that bad, trust me.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,099
    edited November 2020
    felix said:

    another_richard said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322647175789219840

    The positivity rate there is staggering.
    Prepare to be even more staggered:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322578756511375364

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322582337293529089

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322398986385457152

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322329888079175686

    By comparison:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322593265196142593

    Note the difference in hospital usage as well.

    What worries most is that it does seem that whatever governments do or don't do has little bearing on what is happening. The only conclusion seems to be that the public are not complying in sufficient numbers to stop the spread. I also suspect that the percentages of the miscreants is probably low but that is all it takes! Profoundly depressing.
    Well look at places even where it has been handled exceptionally well, it only takes one.

    In South Korea, one infected guy goes out for a night and it results in 100s of cases. In Australia, a few guests and security guards have nookie and they have to shut down the whole of a city for weeks to get back on top of it.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    another_richard said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    another_richard said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322647175789219840

    The positivity rate there is staggering.
    Prepare to be even more staggered:

    twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322578756511375364

    twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322582337293529089

    twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322398986385457152

    twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322329888079175686

    By comparison:

    twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322593265196142593

    Note the difference in hospital usage as well.

    Remember when everybody was pointing to Italy and saying well they seem to be doing well, little sign of second wave.
    New cases in Italy
    03/10/20 2,844
    10/10/20 5,724
    17/10/20 10,925
    24/10/20 19,644
    31/10/20 31,758
    Yup - and it seems to just happen with extraordinary speed!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    felix said:

    another_richard said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322647175789219840

    The positivity rate there is staggering.
    Prepare to be even more staggered:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322578756511375364

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322582337293529089

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322398986385457152

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322329888079175686

    By comparison:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322593265196142593

    Note the difference in hospital usage as well.

    What worries most is that it does seem that whatever governments do or don't do has little bearing on what is happening. The only conclusion seems to be that the public are not complying in sufficient numbers to stop the spread. I also suspect that the percentages of the miscreants is probably low but that is all it takes! Profoundly depressing.
    Early modeling during the initial Wuhan outbreak (from Imperial IIRC) showed that as little as 10% non-compliance would effectively invalidate suppression (although it would still flatten the curve).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,998
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    ping said:

    There was a great comment from a few days ago (I forget who it was... the tin of beans guy perhaps?) that trump should be long odds and shortening, but instead he’s short odds and lengthening.

    I thing that captures well the weird politicalbettng market that is wh2020.

    Good luck to the punters.

    If Trump loses narrowly, we’ll have to stop calling @kinabalu Captain Heinzsight.
    OTOH if he somehow wins it will be all over for me. I'll be a sad and sorry has-bean.
    Taking a broad view, I wouldn't do anything lentil the results are in.
    Elevated pulse until then though
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2020
    The Selzer and Emerson Iowa polls both have the same implied turnout of ~1.8 million I think
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    ping said:

    ydoethur said:

    ping said:

    There was a great comment from a few days ago (I forget who it was... the tin of beans guy perhaps?) that trump should be long odds and shortening, but instead he’s short odds and lengthening.

    I thing that captures well the weird politicalbettng market that is wh2020.

    Good luck to the punters.

    If Trump loses narrowly, we’ll have to stop calling @kinabalu Captain Heinzsight.
    Indeed.

    On topic, If trump wins then we have a polling credibility problem going forward.

    I think the chance of a serious, systemic polling error in trumps favour is small. Silver’s 10% seems about right to me, meaning the 1.5 on Biden is serious value.

    A 90% chance of a 50% return..... the only reason not to pile in is that there may be even better value bets. Anyone with any suggestions?
    NC at 1.9 looks decent value.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,099
    edited November 2020
    felix said:

    another_richard said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322647175789219840

    The positivity rate there is staggering.
    Prepare to be even more staggered:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322578756511375364

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322582337293529089

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322398986385457152

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322329888079175686

    By comparison:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322593265196142593

    Note the difference in hospital usage as well.

    What worries most is that it does seem that whatever governments do or don't do has little bearing on what is happening. The only conclusion seems to be that the public are not complying in sufficient numbers to stop the spread. I also suspect that the percentages of the miscreants is probably low but that is all it takes! Profoundly depressing.
    Also, the big problem is now the cat is out of the bag, if you are young, this thing really isn't much of a danger to your life*. Given that, it is all too easy for people to think, well I'm not at risk, I will meet up with a group of mates, who also aren't at risk, or I will meet somebody on Tinder and hook up, or go to a warehouse party....because personally I am at basically in zero danger.

    And there definitely been this very weird attitude that outside you are definitely 100% safe. You see people all the time, very careful to put their mask on to go into a shop, but happy to stand outside with no mask chatting.

    And unlike in China, nobody is afraid of the authorities or even in places like South Korea where loss of face is still somewhat of a real thing, which adds pressure to not be seen to be breaking the rules.

    * Yes long COVID etc.
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 435
    ping said:

    ydoethur said:

    ping said:

    There was a great comment from a few days ago (I forget who it was... the tin of beans guy perhaps?) that trump should be long odds and shortening, but instead he’s short odds and lengthening.

    I thing that captures well the weird politicalbettng market that is wh2020.

    Good luck to the punters.

    If Trump loses narrowly, we’ll have to stop calling @kinabalu Captain Heinzsight.
    Indeed.

    On topic, If trump wins then we have a polling credibility problem going forward.

    I think the chance of a serious, systemic polling error in trumps favour is small. Silver’s 10% seems about right to me, meaning the 1.5 on Biden is serious value.

    A 90% chance of a 50% return..... the only reason not to pile in is that there may be even better value bets. Anyone with any suggestions?
    There's also the possibility that the polls overestimate Biden by a small amount, and that voided ballots are enough to tip the election in Trump's favour. Have to admit I cashed out a while back for that reason. I think TSE wrote a piece saying the same.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    ping said:

    There was a great comment from a few days ago (I forget who it was... the tin of beans guy perhaps?) that trump should be long odds and shortening, but instead he’s short odds and lengthening.

    I thing that captures well the weird politicalbettng market that is wh2020.

    Good luck to the punters.

    If Trump loses narrowly, we’ll have to stop calling @kinabalu Captain Heinzsight.
    OTOH if he somehow wins it will be all over for me. I'll be a sad and sorry has-bean.
    Taking a broad view, I wouldn't do anything lentil the results are in.
    And if he does win, just do a runner
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.

    Johnson is nothing like Biden, this is a truly bizarre comparison.

    Biden is Starmer, Trump is Johnson.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    If Biden does win, I think the chances Starmer wins in 2024 increase.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,099
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.

    Johnson is nothing like Biden, this is a truly bizarre comparison.

    Biden is Starmer, Trump is Johnson.
    Bit harsh on Starmer I think.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,099
    edited November 2020
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    If Biden does win, I think the chances Starmer wins in 2024 increase.

    I don't think there is any correlation. Tories being kicked out totally depend on a) handling of COVID (which they aren't exactly doing well at) and b) how do they handle the recovery from this / transition of Brexit.

    The world economy is going to be shot for years, it is how in 2024 does it look in the UK to most people.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    Philip_Thompson said:

    MightyAlex said:

    kle4 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.

    I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
    The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
    The parallels between Corbyn and Trump are remarkable. Cyclefree did an excellent thread header commenting on it but you can dig much deeper.

    Between Boris and Biden it is more the situation than the people but there are some similarities.

    Both gaffe-prone.

    Both could have been natural successors last time (as Veep/figurehead of Vote Leave).

    Both never ended up running last time and beaten by a female rival instead, due to lack of support for them getting the top job from within their own party.

    Biden dismissed as past it/too old/senile like Boris is dismissed as clownish/lazy/unserious.

    Both "good enough" to defeat the opponent they're faced with.
    I think you're grasping a little.

    Biden is a 30+ year senatorial centrist, lauded for his ability to compromise. He's the iconic safe pair of hands. Maybe not a superstar but a stolid VP who was loyal to a fault to Obama. A member of Delaware's middle classes, not academic but personable and respected within the state.

    I cannot see Johnson in Biden. Yes Biden miss-speaks and makes gaffes but he is nearing his 80th decade. He was never the class clown and doesn't play to the gallery.

    I think your conflating circumstantial evidence to make such a comparison.

    VP to vote leave figure head, really?

    Both dismissed for their perceived faults?

  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.

    Johnson is nothing like Biden, this is a truly bizarre comparison.

    Biden is Starmer, Trump is Johnson.
    Bit harsh on Starmer I think.
    I think the comparison is pretty fair, they're both dull, "business as usual" candidates. Trump and Johnson are the "outsider" populists.

    I don't buy this election as being like 2019 here, I think it is more likely 2020 in the USA is 2024 for us.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    ping said:

    Btw, in the few years since I was posting as @Pong my politics has swung from the internationalist-liberal-left to a soft nationalist-centre-right. I’m very comfortable with the new emerging boris-starmer consensus.

    I’ve surprised myself tbh.

    Welcome back.

    So you've pong-pinged from one position to the other.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    If Biden does win, I think the chances Starmer wins in 2024 increase.

    I don't think there is any correlation.
    It sets on course, IMHO, a decade of centrist/centre-left parties having a resurgence. It began with Jacinda and might end with Starmer.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    I've said many times, Starmer is probably to the right of my personal politics - but I have accepted the country isn't where I am and that's reality. And yet that is somehow seen as a bad thing.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322899819661303808
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322899821267689472

    Fake news?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    Mal557 said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    ping said:

    There was a great comment from a few days ago (I forget who it was... the tin of beans guy perhaps?) that trump should be long odds and shortening, but instead he’s short odds and lengthening.

    I thing that captures well the weird politicalbettng market that is wh2020.

    Good luck to the punters.

    If Trump loses narrowly, we’ll have to stop calling @kinabalu Captain Heinzsight.
    OTOH if he somehow wins it will be all over for me. I'll be a sad and sorry has-bean.
    Taking a broad view, I wouldn't do anything lentil the results are in.
    And if he does win, just do a runner
    Lima might be a good choice if a little fava to go...
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Arguably our 2019 is the USA 2016.

    Two unpopular candidates, the public chose the one they hated the least, in some seats/areas by very narrow margins and in others by landslides.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,617
    edited November 2020
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    If Biden does win, I think the chances Starmer wins in 2024 increase.

    I don't think there is any correlation.
    It sets on course, IMHO, a decade of centrist/centre-left parties having a resurgence. It began with Jacinda and might end with Starmer.
    Arden's achievement was hardline border control.

    Not what you associate with centrist/centre-left parties.

    Starmer, for example, continually ignored the open goal of how lax border control brought covid into the UK.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1322916870119399424
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    kicorse said:

    ping said:

    ydoethur said:

    ping said:

    There was a great comment from a few days ago (I forget who it was... the tin of beans guy perhaps?) that trump should be long odds and shortening, but instead he’s short odds and lengthening.

    I thing that captures well the weird politicalbettng market that is wh2020.

    Good luck to the punters.

    If Trump loses narrowly, we’ll have to stop calling @kinabalu Captain Heinzsight.
    Indeed.

    On topic, If trump wins then we have a polling credibility problem going forward.

    I think the chance of a serious, systemic polling error in trumps favour is small. Silver’s 10% seems about right to me, meaning the 1.5 on Biden is serious value.

    A 90% chance of a 50% return..... the only reason not to pile in is that there may be even better value bets. Anyone with any suggestions?
    There's also the possibility that the polls overestimate Biden by a small amount, and that voided ballots are enough to tip the election in Trump's favour. Have to admit I cashed out a while back for that reason. I think TSE wrote a piece saying the same.
    And recanted in the comments section, I believe.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    another_richard said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    If Biden does win, I think the chances Starmer wins in 2024 increase.

    I don't think there is any correlation.
    It sets on course, IMHO, a decade of centrist/centre-left parties having a resurgence. It began with Jacinda and might end with Starmer.
    Arden's achievement was hardline border control.

    Not what you associate with centrist/centre-left parties.
    I wouldn't say it was hardline border control but I do think it was sold very intelligently. Not as anti-immigration but as a resource issue.

    That is where I think Starmer will go - and it shows with his support for Johnson's original deal which lets him implement an end to FOM.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    National - NBC/WSJ - A- rated - 1000 RV - Oct 29/31

    Biden 52 .. Trump 42 - Final Poll

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/biden-leads-trump-10-points-final-pre-election-nbc-news-n1245667
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,771
    DavidL said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: post-race ramble:
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/11/imola-post-race-analysis-2020.html

    Hamilton was lucky with the safety car but he probably had enough to come out ahead after a stunning series of lap records after the other 2 pitted. That showed, once again, that he is a different class to all except possibly Verstappen who was unlucky today. Far too hard to overtake to make it a genuinely exciting race. If Verstappen had been able to get past Bottas earlier and keep 4 tyres on his car it might have been more interesting.
    He's just ridiculously good, and in the best team. When he gets lucky too, there's little that can stop him.

    No fault of his, but he's actually ruined the sport. Schumacher was around the same level of talent (I actually think better, though I'd not argue), but he wasn't always in the best car, and there were some other greats driving at the same time.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    kle4 said:

    MightyAlex said:

    kle4 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.

    I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
    The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
    I already did - situation not person. Some thought 2019 would be 2017 all over again, and it wasn't.

    I really don't know why people find applying the same logic to the US hard to understand, even if they disagree and do think 2020 will be 2016 redux.

    The personalities of those involved is irrelevant to the analogy.
    The ideologies were different
    The perspective voter classes different
    The media environment different
    Trump is backed to the hilt by his party elite, Corbyn was never supported

    I can only bridge the two by saying one was the left crying out against the orthodoxy and the other the right.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,133
    It is actually frequently the case that Presidents who are re elected to see their party fail to win the House, that was the case in 2012, 1996, 1984 and 1972 and 1956 for instance so I don't see why the Democrats holding the House should be that much different. There are of course plenty of white working class Trump Democrats especially in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that were generally blue states before Trump and had not voted for a Republican for President since Reagan in 1984 or Bush Snr in 1988 who will split their ticket and vote Trump for President and Democrat for Congress (while in Western states like California and Arizona there will be the reverse, suburban upper middle class voters who will likely vote Biden for President but Republican for Congress).

    Neither the Congressional nor Presidential polls show much if any movement of Trump 2016 voters to Biden, any movement Biden has see has mainly come from third party voters in 2016 but some of those will also go for Trump
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Trump is supported by the most popular news channel in the US, if Corbyn was supported by the Mail it might be equivalent here
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,099
    https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1322913529138216966?s=20
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    MightyAlex said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MightyAlex said:

    kle4 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.

    I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
    The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
    The parallels between Corbyn and Trump are remarkable. Cyclefree did an excellent thread header commenting on it but you can dig much deeper.

    Between Boris and Biden it is more the situation than the people but there are some similarities.

    Both gaffe-prone.

    Both could have been natural successors last time (as Veep/figurehead of Vote Leave).

    Both never ended up running last time and beaten by a female rival instead, due to lack of support for them getting the top job from within their own party.

    Biden dismissed as past it/too old/senile like Boris is dismissed as clownish/lazy/unserious.

    Both "good enough" to defeat the opponent they're faced with.
    I think you're grasping a little.

    Biden is a 30+ year senatorial centrist, lauded for his ability to compromise. He's the iconic safe pair of hands. Maybe not a superstar but a stolid VP who was loyal to a fault to Obama. A member of Delaware's middle classes, not academic but personable and respected within the state.

    I cannot see Johnson in Biden. Yes Biden miss-speaks and makes gaffes but he is nearing his 80th decade. He was never the class clown and doesn't play to the gallery.

    I think your conflating circumstantial evidence to make such a comparison.

    VP to vote leave figure head, really?

    Both dismissed for their perceived faults?

    He's be Methuselah if he's near his eightieth decade. He (like me) is actually in his eighth decade, though not yet an octogenarian.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,133
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.

    Trump is Farage, though Boris is the more diluted British version, Sanders is Corbyn, May I agree is Hillary, Starmer however is Biden.

    Plus remember in 2019 the Tory vote only went up by 1%, a similar vote increase by Biden will not see him necessarily win the EC, most Labour voters went LD in 2019 when the LDs got 11% and there is not a third party as strong this year in the US
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    If Biden does win, I think the chances Starmer wins in 2024 increase.

    I don't think there is any correlation.
    It sets on course, IMHO, a decade of centrist/centre-left parties having a resurgence. It began with Jacinda and might end with Starmer.
    Remember that, if the FTPA is repealed, the next UKGE might not happen until after the next US Presidential election.
This discussion has been closed.