Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.
I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
I already did - situation not person. Some thought 2019 would be 2017 all over again, and it wasn't.
I really don't know why people find applying the same logic to the US hard to understand, even if they disagree and do think 2020 will be 2016 redux.
The personalities of those involved is irrelevant to the analogy.
The ideologies were different The perspective voter classes different The media environment different Trump is backed to the hilt by his party elite, Corbyn was never supported
I can only bridge the two by saying one was the left crying out against the orthodoxy and the other the right.
Trump was hated not backed to the hilt by his party elite. The Lincoln Project etc are all ran by former party elite who fled the party after Trump's acolytes took it over. Sound at all familiar?
I've said many times, Starmer is probably to the right of my personal politics - but I have accepted the country isn't where I am and that's reality. And yet that is somehow seen as a bad thing.
Same here. But also, a leader's values and competence are more important to me than their exact position on the political spectrum. There are plenty of people who support left wing policies that I also support, but who I wouldn't want anywhere near power, because they are intolerant of opposing views.
Btw, in the few years since I was posting as @Pong my politics has swung from the internationalist-liberal-left to a soft nationalist-centre-right. I’m very comfortable with the new emerging boris-starmer consensus.
I’ve surprised myself tbh.
Welcome back.
So you've pong-pinged from one position to the other.
Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.
I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
The parallels between Corbyn and Trump are remarkable. Cyclefree did an excellent thread header commenting on it but you can dig much deeper.
Between Boris and Biden it is more the situation than the people but there are some similarities.
Both gaffe-prone.
Both could have been natural successors last time (as Veep/figurehead of Vote Leave).
Both never ended up running last time and beaten by a female rival instead, due to lack of support for them getting the top job from within their own party.
Biden dismissed as past it/too old/senile like Boris is dismissed as clownish/lazy/unserious.
Both "good enough" to defeat the opponent they're faced with.
I think you're grasping a little.
Biden is a 30+ year senatorial centrist, lauded for his ability to compromise. He's the iconic safe pair of hands. Maybe not a superstar but a stolid VP who was loyal to a fault to Obama. A member of Delaware's middle classes, not academic but personable and respected within the state.
I cannot see Johnson in Biden. Yes Biden miss-speaks and makes gaffes but he is nearing his 80th decade. He was never the class clown and doesn't play to the gallery.
I think your conflating circumstantial evidence to make such a comparison.
VP to vote leave figure head, really?
Both dismissed for their perceived faults?
As I (and kle4) said it is the situation more than the personalities.
But you seem to be responding to caricature of both of them. Johnson too is someone who can compromise, he is more liberal than his party and was able to twice win London as a result.
Daughter has just noted that the government has made things significantly worse for pubs and restaurants than in the first lockdown in one respect.
Even if you have a licence to sell as an off-licence, you cannot sell alcohol as a takeaway. So all the beer and other drinks which pubs have cannot now be sold and that stock will be wasted.
Why? During the last lockdown Daughter - at some expense - got such a licence so she could sell alcohol with her takeaway meals. Now she can’t. What on earth is the reason for doing that? It’s pure spite - especially as supermarkets will be able to sell alcohol.
Letters on their way to our MP - Boris’s PPS as it happens - and to Tim Farron.
Yes, that was noted on here last night and it doesn't seem logical to me. You can do takeaways, but not including your main product. What a mess.
In terms of R it's hardly going to make much of a difference either way. It's a sign that government is too focused on the minutiae of lockdown rules to pay enough attention to other ways of reducing transmission of the virus.
And it was also not what was done last time. So someone decided to put that bit in what government produced last night. It was not simply a cut and paste job. They made the deliberate decision to stop those with a off-licence selling their product on a takeaway basis. They made a deliberate decision to favour supermarkets who can sell alcohol over other businesses, particularly those whose main business this is.
Feels like spite to me not just stupidity. It is a kick in the teeth. I cannot begin to tell you how furious and upset Daughter is. Every little thing she has been trying to do to save her business, all the work she has put in for the last 2 years, her employees, her suppliers is being undermined.
Just a thought, Mrs Cyclefree... Are you still going to vote Tory?
Not sure why you have me down as a Tory. I vote Lib Dem for want of anything else.
In fairness 'LD: for want of anything else' is not one of their more popular slogans, but has often been effective.
Leaving politics aside, when you look at the bozos who seem to sail through Tory and Labour selection panels, it is often the most sensible option. At least you know the LibDem candidate isn’t someone motivated by ambition and personal gain.
I've said many times, Starmer is probably to the right of my personal politics - but I have accepted the country isn't where I am and that's reality. And yet that is somehow seen as a bad thing.
Same here. But also, a leader's values and competence are more important to me than their exact position on the political spectrum. There are plenty of people who support left wing policies that I also support, but who I wouldn't want anywhere near power, because they are intolerant of opposing views.
I would be backing Starmer even if he was Blair 2.0, the fact he is sufficiently left wing is just icing on the cake for me personally.
He's by every measure, the best leader Labour has had since Blair.
I've said many times, Starmer is probably to the right of my personal politics - but I have accepted the country isn't where I am and that's reality. And yet that is somehow seen as a bad thing.
Same here. But also, a leader's values and competence are more important to me than their exact position on the political spectrum. There are plenty of people who support left wing policies that I also support, but who I wouldn't want anywhere near power, because they are intolerant of opposing views.
I would be backing Starmer even if he was Blair 2.0, the fact he is sufficiently left wing is just icing on the cake for me personally.
He's by every measure, the best leader Labour has had since Blair.
Not a high bar to pass but I agree. He's a real threat. Would be a disaster but he's a threat.
Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.
I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
I already did - situation not person. Some thought 2019 would be 2017 all over again, and it wasn't.
I really don't know why people find applying the same logic to the US hard to understand, even if they disagree and do think 2020 will be 2016 redux.
The personalities of those involved is irrelevant to the analogy.
The ideologies were different The perspective voter classes different The media environment different Trump is backed to the hilt by his party elite, Corbyn was never supported
I can only bridge the two by saying one was the left crying out against the orthodoxy and the other the right.
Trump was hated not backed to the hilt by his party elite. The Lincoln Project etc are all ran by former party elite who fled the party after Trump's acolytes took it over. Sound at all familiar?
Where are the senatorial rebellions then? Where are the masses of outspoken governors? Where's the Bush condemnation as Blair did.
The governing republican party has fallen in line. The Labour parliamentary party never did.
Trump is supported by the most popular news channel in the US, if Corbyn was supported by the Mail it might be equivalent here
If Corbyn was supported by the Mail they'd have a circulation of zero. His problem isn't a lack of support. His problem is that he's an unpleasant frothing loon.
There's lots to like about the Labour party, Corbyn isn't part of that though. I'm a very reasonable man, and I'd not really want to hurt anyone. Corbyn though I'd happily hear has had a plague of stubbed toes or small fires in his beard.
Remember when everybody was pointing to Italy and saying well they seem to be doing well, little sign of second wave.
When I was there in September, they were doing very well, and had an exceptional level of compliance with the rules including mask wearing, etc.
To see how quickly the situation there has deteriorated there is shocking. The conclusion I draw, having left Italy just as the summer weather was slipping away, is that being outdoors really is protective, whilst mixing with others indoors is asking for trouble.
My guess is that the Italians took their summer habit of meeting with friends and family in bars and restaurants outdoors, which was relatively safe, indoors when the weather changed.
Trump is supported by the most popular news channel in the US, if Corbyn was supported by the Mail it might be equivalent here
If Corbyn was supported by the Mail they'd have a circulation of zero. His problem isn't a lack of support. His problem is that he's an unpleasant frothing loon.
There's lots to like about the Labour party, Corbyn isn't part of that though. I'm a very reasonable man, and I'd not really want to hurt anyone. Corbyn though I'd happily hear has had a plague of stubbed toes or small fires in his beard.
I think you'll find I have very few nice words to say about Corbyn since the election and most definitely since the EHRC report.
It is actually frequently the case that Presidents who are re elected to see their party fail to win the House, that was the case in 2012, 1996, 1984 and 1972 and 1956 for instance so I don't see why the Democrats holding the House should be that much different. There are of course plenty of white working class Trump Democrats especially in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that were generally blue states before Trump and had not voted for a Republican for President since Reagan in 1984 or Bush Snr in 1988 who will split their ticket and vote Trump for President and Democrat for Congress (while in Western states like California and Arizona there will be the reverse, suburban upper middle class voters who will likely vote Biden for President but Republican for Congress).
Neither the Congressional nor Presidential polls show much if any movement of Trump 2016 voters to Biden, any movement Biden has see has mainly come from third party voters in 2016 but some of those will also go for Trump
If you read the piece I talked about the President's party being the incumbent majority in the House.
In 2012, 1996, 1984, 1972, nor 1956 was the winning President's party the incumbent majority, unlike today.
Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.
I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
I already did - situation not person. Some thought 2019 would be 2017 all over again, and it wasn't.
I really don't know why people find applying the same logic to the US hard to understand, even if they disagree and do think 2020 will be 2016 redux.
The personalities of those involved is irrelevant to the analogy.
The ideologies were different The perspective voter classes different The media environment different Trump is backed to the hilt by his party elite, Corbyn was never supported
I can only bridge the two by saying one was the left crying out against the orthodoxy and the other the right.
Trump was hated not backed to the hilt by his party elite. The Lincoln Project etc are all ran by former party elite who fled the party after Trump's acolytes took it over. Sound at all familiar?
Where are the senatorial rebellions then? Where are the masses of outspoken governors? Where's the Bush condemnation as Blair did.
The governing republican party has fallen in line. The Labour parliamentary party never did.
Not all, Senator Romney even voted to impeach Trump
I've said many times, Starmer is probably to the right of my personal politics - but I have accepted the country isn't where I am and that's reality. And yet that is somehow seen as a bad thing.
Same here. But also, a leader's values and competence are more important to me than their exact position on the political spectrum. There are plenty of people who support left wing policies that I also support, but who I wouldn't want anywhere near power, because they are intolerant of opposing views.
I would be backing Starmer even if he was Blair 2.0, the fact he is sufficiently left wing is just icing on the cake for me personally.
He's by every measure, the best leader Labour has had since Blair.
Its not a level playing field. Following Corbyn and up against Johnson is much easier than following Blair and up against Cameron. Brown or Miliband would both have been better suited to the current challenges than they were the ones they faced, hard to judge who is best with any confidence when their tasks are quite different.
I've said many times, Starmer is probably to the right of my personal politics - but I have accepted the country isn't where I am and that's reality. And yet that is somehow seen as a bad thing.
Same here. But also, a leader's values and competence are more important to me than their exact position on the political spectrum. There are plenty of people who support left wing policies that I also support, but who I wouldn't want anywhere near power, because they are intolerant of opposing views.
I would be backing Starmer even if he was Blair 2.0, the fact he is sufficiently left wing is just icing on the cake for me personally.
He's by every measure, the best leader Labour has had since Blair.
Its not a level playing field. Following Corbyn and up against Johnson is much easier than following Blair and up against Cameron. Brown or Miliband would both have been better suited to the current challenges than they were the ones they faced, hard to judge who is best with any confidence when their tasks are quite different.
If Starmer had followed up Brown Labour would have likely formed a minority Government in 2015.
Remember when everybody was pointing to Italy and saying well they seem to be doing well, little sign of second wave.
When I was there in September, they were doing very well, and had an exceptional level of compliance with the rules including mask wearing, etc.
To see how quickly the situation there has deteriorated there is shocking. The conclusion I draw, having left Italy just as the summer weather was slipping away, is that being outdoors really is protective, whilst mixing with others indoors is asking for trouble.
My guess is that the Italians took their summer habit of meeting with friends and family in bars and restaurants outdoors, which was relatively safe, indoors when the weather changed.
The other problem as I highlighted, belief in not expanding testing (nor as Max and I repeatedly advocate going out to find the virus), rather going for rapid tests to supposedly enable a track and trace system. The problem is I repeated say, such a manual system just isn't a good defence, you can't do this fast enough.
So I would guess what has happened is again it has been spreading quietly away, much less testing than here, and now its gone pop as it has hit the oldies (just like Feb / March).
Ed M I believe to have been one of the greatest PMs we never had, he came too early.
His 2015 campaign was a disaster, Labour then had no vision or idea on what it was for or where it was going. It got stuck in the past. Corbyn can be credited with stopping that, of course it was a disaster.
But team Starmer isn't team Blairite which is equally good.
Been shopping in Matalan (I know, I am a classy bitch...). Somewhat chaotic scenes with a lot of shoppers buying a lot of items. And yet when I was chatting to the staff about the queue they told me that the haven't been told what the plan is for Thursday onwards. "You're being closed aren't you?" - "Management say that we don't know that yet".
Clothes shops busy lobbying Tory backbenchers to keep them open as essential?
Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.
I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
I already did - situation not person. Some thought 2019 would be 2017 all over again, and it wasn't.
I really don't know why people find applying the same logic to the US hard to understand, even if they disagree and do think 2020 will be 2016 redux.
The personalities of those involved is irrelevant to the analogy.
The ideologies were different The perspective voter classes different The media environment different Trump is backed to the hilt by his party elite, Corbyn was never supported
I can only bridge the two by saying one was the left crying out against the orthodoxy and the other the right.
Yeah, if we try hard enough we'll be able to find a way in which any two people or situations are comparable. The similarities between 2019 UK and 2016 US are greater, though even then that comparison is unfair. British politics is badly damaged, but it's just not as broken as US politics.
I've said many times, Starmer is probably to the right of my personal politics - but I have accepted the country isn't where I am and that's reality. And yet that is somehow seen as a bad thing.
Same here. But also, a leader's values and competence are more important to me than their exact position on the political spectrum. There are plenty of people who support left wing policies that I also support, but who I wouldn't want anywhere near power, because they are intolerant of opposing views.
I would be backing Starmer even if he was Blair 2.0, the fact he is sufficiently left wing is just icing on the cake for me personally.
He's by every measure, the best leader Labour has had since Blair.
Not a high bar to pass but I agree. He's a real threat. Would be a disaster but he's a threat.
The Tories point to every Labour leader and say they would be a "disaster", but you know what? The Tories then go and screw the country so badly that it is genuinely hard to see how Labour could be worse than the total and utter balls up we are left with.
It will be interesting to see once we have all the results in whether Biden has done better relatively in States where there are close Senate races, like Iowa, Michigan and Georgia, or where there is a major fight for control of State houses, like TX
Trump is not like Corbyn or Boris. Or even Farage.
Trump really is something out of this world -- a huge and grotesque caricature of greed and brutality and ugliness and stupidity.
The only character I can think of who at all resembles Donald Trump is Ubu Roi.
And whilst the Republicans own most of this dark and brutal tumour on the human soul -- we should not forget that other parties have supped with this evil man.
He was a registered Democrat between 2002 and 2009.
And, although the SNP probably do not care to be reminded, Alex Salmond appointed him a globalScot ambassador between 2006 and 2015, before Sturgeon stripped him of the title.
(Wiki tells me Ubu Roi is fat, ugly, vulgar, gluttonous, grandiose, dishonest, stupid, jejune, voracious, greedy, cruel, cowardly and evil. That's Trump).
Trump is not like Corbyn or Boris. Or even Farage.
Trump really is something out of this world -- a huge and grotesque caricature of greed and brutality and ugliness and stupidity.
The only character I can think of who at all resembles Donald Trump is Ubu Roi.
And whilst the Republicans own most of this dark and brutal tumour on the human soul -- we should not forget that other parties have supped with this evil man.
He was a registered Democrat between 2002 and 2009.
And, although the SNP probably do not care to be reminded, Alex Salmond appointed him a globalScot ambassador between 2006 and 2015, before Sturgeon stripped him of the title.
If Biden does win, I think the chances Starmer wins in 2024 increase.
I don't think there is any correlation.
It sets on course, IMHO, a decade of centrist/centre-left parties having a resurgence. It began with Jacinda and might end with Starmer.
Arden's achievement was hardline border control.
Not what you associate with centrist/centre-left parties.
I wouldn't say it was hardline border control but I do think it was sold very intelligently. Not as anti-immigration but as a resource issue.
That is where I think Starmer will go - and it shows with his support for Johnson's original deal which lets him implement an end to FOM.
Quite a few on the left want action on globalisation - while they are loath to describe it as cracking down on immigration, things like a high, enforced minimum wage, heavy unionisation, skills requirements etc would tend to create a situation like Switzerland.
Good a time as any for my final WH2020 prediction then. No malarkey, here’s the deal –
Given I’ve long thought Donald Trump unelectable for a second term I’m not about to change my mind now the polls have come around and are playing ball. Is it Covid that has doomed him? Maybe. Who cares. All that matters atm are the number of votes and where they fall.
One thing you can say for Trump is that he enthuses lots of people. Just because I can't empathize with this doesn't mean I don't see it. Such love for the man. Hence why he’s going to get more votes than anyone has ever gotten before in a US presidential election. Amazing.
But tough shit because Joe Biden will beat it by over 10 million.
This will be sufficient to take the RustBelt, plus NC and AZ, plus at least 2 of FL, TX, GA, OH.
So, a clear win in both PV and EC. Trump below 200 in the latter. ByeDon.
Trump is supported by the most popular news channel in the US, if Corbyn was supported by the Mail it might be equivalent here
If Corbyn was supported by the Mail they'd have a circulation of zero. His problem isn't a lack of support. His problem is that he's an unpleasant frothing loon.
There's lots to like about the Labour party, Corbyn isn't part of that though. I'm a very reasonable man, and I'd not really want to hurt anyone. Corbyn though I'd happily hear has had a plague of stubbed toes or small fires in his beard.
I think you'll find I have very few nice words to say about Corbyn since the election and most definitely since the EHRC report.
I don't think Corbyn ever captured the hearts of mainstream Labour supporters. His popularity was mainly around the fact that he seemed to be invigorating the tribe. Particularly capturing an adoring youth vote.
You get what you get with party leaders though. I didn't much like May as a leader, although at times she really did well. If you're a LD then you've got the problems double strength - leader trouble and party trouble.
Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.
I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
I already did - situation not person. Some thought 2019 would be 2017 all over again, and it wasn't.
I really don't know why people find applying the same logic to the US hard to understand, even if they disagree and do think 2020 will be 2016 redux.
The personalities of those involved is irrelevant to the analogy.
The ideologies were different The perspective voter classes different The media environment different Trump is backed to the hilt by his party elite, Corbyn was never supported
I can only bridge the two by saying one was the left crying out against the orthodoxy and the other the right.
Trump was hated not backed to the hilt by his party elite. The Lincoln Project etc are all ran by former party elite who fled the party after Trump's acolytes took it over. Sound at all familiar?
Where are the senatorial rebellions then? Where are the masses of outspoken governors? Where's the Bush condemnation as Blair did.
The governing republican party has fallen in line. The Labour parliamentary party never did.
Have you not been paying attention to all the Republicans who have endorsed Biden or opposed Trump? Literally hundreds of big Republican names have rebelled against the party line.
I've said many times, Starmer is probably to the right of my personal politics - but I have accepted the country isn't where I am and that's reality. And yet that is somehow seen as a bad thing.
Same here. But also, a leader's values and competence are more important to me than their exact position on the political spectrum. There are plenty of people who support left wing policies that I also support, but who I wouldn't want anywhere near power, because they are intolerant of opposing views.
I would be backing Starmer even if he was Blair 2.0, the fact he is sufficiently left wing is just icing on the cake for me personally.
He's by every measure, the best leader Labour has had since Blair.
Not a high bar to pass but I agree. He's a real threat. Would be a disaster but he's a threat.
The Tories point to every Labour leader and say they would be a "disaster", but you know what? The Tories then go and screw the country so badly that it is genuinely hard to see how Labour could be worse than the total and utter balls up we are left with.
And indeed, no Labour PM has ever come anywhere close to living down to these warnings. It's the left who are unhappy with McDonald, Blair and Brown in hindsight. Wilson is respected and Attlee revered. Closest would be Callaghan, but compare him to Heath....
Remember when everybody was pointing to Italy and saying well they seem to be doing well, little sign of second wave.
Yes - i was aware of the positivity rates in most of those countries. Like them, the French rate is staggering, combined with the testing levels. What is France really at now? 200K infections per day, possibly.
When you combine testing levels etc, it is clear that COVID is going up very steeply across Europe.
I'm still looking for any population surveys (ONS /REACT style) that have been done in these countries..??
What worries most is that it does seem that whatever governments do or don't do has little bearing on what is happening. The only conclusion seems to be that the public are not complying in sufficient numbers to stop the spread. I also suspect that the percentages of the miscreants is probably low but that is all it takes! Profoundly depressing.
Early modeling during the initial Wuhan outbreak (from Imperial IIRC) showed that as little as 10% non-compliance would effectively invalidate suppression (although it would still flatten the curve).
A link to the that study we be useful - I could use it to beat some idiots I know round the head...
"Yes, I know we need a lockdown. But I deserve to have 30 people round for Christmas. and I deserve a holiday in the Sun....." etc etc...
Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.
I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
I already did - situation not person. Some thought 2019 would be 2017 all over again, and it wasn't.
I really don't know why people find applying the same logic to the US hard to understand, even if they disagree and do think 2020 will be 2016 redux.
The personalities of those involved is irrelevant to the analogy.
The ideologies were different The perspective voter classes different The media environment different Trump is backed to the hilt by his party elite, Corbyn was never supported
I can only bridge the two by saying one was the left crying out against the orthodoxy and the other the right.
Trump was hated not backed to the hilt by his party elite. The Lincoln Project etc are all ran by former party elite who fled the party after Trump's acolytes took it over. Sound at all familiar?
Where are the senatorial rebellions then? Where are the masses of outspoken governors? Where's the Bush condemnation as Blair did.
The governing republican party has fallen in line. The Labour parliamentary party never did.
Not all, Senator Romney even voted to impeach Trump
Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.
I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
The parallels between Corbyn and Trump are remarkable. Cyclefree did an excellent thread header commenting on it but you can dig much deeper.
Between Boris and Biden it is more the situation than the people but there are some similarities.
Both gaffe-prone.
Both could have been natural successors last time (as Veep/figurehead of Vote Leave).
Both never ended up running last time and beaten by a female rival instead, due to lack of support for them getting the top job from within their own party.
Biden dismissed as past it/too old/senile like Boris is dismissed as clownish/lazy/unserious.
Both "good enough" to defeat the opponent they're faced with.
You're so full of shit. I didn't read the cyclefree article but if she said 'the parallels between Trump and Corbyn are remarkable' I'd be amazed. It's crap and therefore got your handwriting all over it. cyclefree considers what she posts.
to show how ridiculous it is to make comparisons between moderate Democrats and the current Labour leadership consider that Obama thought Ed Miliband brand of socialism was extreme It is shocking that both Teresa May The Tory govt has been applying Labours 2015 manifesto and yet none of the mainstream media have labelled the policies as extreme because one suspects nearly all the MSM's personnel private opinions are located loosely around Ed Miliband worldviews
Trump is not like Corbyn or Boris. Or even Farage.
Trump really is something out of this world -- a huge and grotesque caricature of greed and brutality and ugliness and stupidity.
The only character I can think of who at all resembles Donald Trump is Ubu Roi.
And whilst the Republicans own most of this dark and brutal tumour on the human soul -- we should not forget that other parties have supped with this evil man.
He was a registered Democrat between 2002 and 2009.
And, although the SNP probably do not care to be reminded, Alex Salmond appointed him a globalScot ambassador between 2006 and 2015, before Sturgeon stripped him of the title.
(Wiki tells me Ubu Roi is fat, ugly, vulgar, gluttonous, grandiose, dishonest, stupid, jejune, voracious, greedy, cruel, cowardly and evil. That's Trump).
Salmond appointed him globalscot ambassador when the Country was run by the Lab-Lib coalition?
What worries most is that it does seem that whatever governments do or don't do has little bearing on what is happening. The only conclusion seems to be that the public are not complying in sufficient numbers to stop the spread. I also suspect that the percentages of the miscreants is probably low but that is all it takes! Profoundly depressing.
Early modeling during the initial Wuhan outbreak (from Imperial IIRC) showed that as little as 10% non-compliance would effectively invalidate suppression (although it would still flatten the curve).
A link to the that study we be useful - I could use it to beat some idiots I know round the head...
"Yes, I know we need a lockdown. But I deserve to have 30 people round for Christmas. and I deserve a holiday in the Sun....." etc etc...
I am not sure I have it. I did an interview with a Chinese TV programme back in late January, and the interviewer threw it at me mid-interview.
Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.
I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
The parallels between Corbyn and Trump are remarkable. Cyclefree did an excellent thread header commenting on it but you can dig much deeper.
Between Boris and Biden it is more the situation than the people but there are some similarities.
Both gaffe-prone.
Both could have been natural successors last time (as Veep/figurehead of Vote Leave).
Both never ended up running last time and beaten by a female rival instead, due to lack of support for them getting the top job from within their own party.
Biden dismissed as past it/too old/senile like Boris is dismissed as clownish/lazy/unserious.
Both "good enough" to defeat the opponent they're faced with.
You're so full of shit. I didn't read the cyclefree article but if she said 'the parallels between Trump and Corbyn are remarkable' I'd be amazed. It's crap and therefore got your handwriting all over it. cyclefree considers what she posts.
No shit Sherlock. You know shit. You think Brexit is a piece of shit. I think Brexit is the shit. You don't give a shit for sovereignty and I won't take shit from you though we agree Trump is a piece of shit. Anyway I now have shit to do.
Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.
I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
I already did - situation not person. Some thought 2019 would be 2017 all over again, and it wasn't.
I really don't know why people find applying the same logic to the US hard to understand, even if they disagree and do think 2020 will be 2016 redux.
The personalities of those involved is irrelevant to the analogy.
The ideologies were different The perspective voter classes different The media environment different Trump is backed to the hilt by his party elite, Corbyn was never supported
I can only bridge the two by saying one was the left crying out against the orthodoxy and the other the right.
Trump was hated not backed to the hilt by his party elite. The Lincoln Project etc are all ran by former party elite who fled the party after Trump's acolytes took it over. Sound at all familiar?
Where are the senatorial rebellions then? Where are the masses of outspoken governors? Where's the Bush condemnation as Blair did.
The governing republican party has fallen in line. The Labour parliamentary party never did.
Have you not been paying attention to all the Republicans who have endorsed Biden or opposed Trump? Literally hundreds of big Republican names have rebelled against the party line.
Of the governing republican party there are 1 senator 1 congressman and 3 governors. That's not symbolic of hatred. And when it mattered they voted to acquit.
I'm sure there will be hundreds of cowards prepared to denounce the man when he leaves, but their records speak much louder than they ever did. They acquiesced.
Trump is not like Corbyn or Boris. Or even Farage.
Trump really is something out of this world -- a huge and grotesque caricature of greed and brutality and ugliness and stupidity.
The only character I can think of who at all resembles Donald Trump is Ubu Roi.
And whilst the Republicans own most of this dark and brutal tumour on the human soul -- we should not forget that other parties have supped with this evil man.
He was a registered Democrat between 2002 and 2009.
And, although the SNP probably do not care to be reminded, Alex Salmond appointed him a globalScot ambassador between 2006 and 2015, before Sturgeon stripped him of the title.
(Wiki tells me Ubu Roi is fat, ugly, vulgar, gluttonous, grandiose, dishonest, stupid, jejune, voracious, greedy, cruel, cowardly and evil. That's Trump).
Salmond appointed him globalscot ambassador when the Country was run by the Lab-Lib coalition?
It is actually frequently the case that Presidents who are re elected to see their party fail to win the House, that was the case in 2012, 1996, 1984 and 1972 and 1956 for instance so I don't see why the Democrats holding the House should be that much different. There are of course plenty of white working class Trump Democrats especially in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that were generally blue states before Trump and had not voted for a Republican for President since Reagan in 1984 or Bush Snr in 1988 who will split their ticket and vote Trump for President and Democrat for Congress (while in Western states like California and Arizona there will be the reverse, suburban upper middle class voters who will likely vote Biden for President but Republican for Congress).
Neither the Congressional nor Presidential polls show much if any movement of Trump 2016 voters to Biden, any movement Biden has see has mainly come from third party voters in 2016 but some of those will also go for Trump
If you read the piece I talked about the President's party being the incumbent majority in the House.
In 2012, 1996, 1984, 1972, nor 1956 was the winning President's party the incumbent majority, unlike today.
The GOP are not the incumbent majority in the House today either, hence Pelosi is Speaker, in 1994 Clinton's party lost the House as Obama's party lost the House in 2010 as IKE's party lost the House in 1954, that swing was not repeated at the presidential election 2 years later
Trump is not like Corbyn or Boris. Or even Farage.
Trump really is something out of this world -- a huge and grotesque caricature of greed and brutality and ugliness and stupidity.
The only character I can think of who at all resembles Donald Trump is Ubu Roi.
And whilst the Republicans own most of this dark and brutal tumour on the human soul -- we should not forget that other parties have supped with this evil man.
He was a registered Democrat between 2002 and 2009.
And, although the SNP probably do not care to be reminded, Alex Salmond appointed him a globalScot ambassador between 2006 and 2015, before Sturgeon stripped him of the title.
(Wiki tells me Ubu Roi is fat, ugly, vulgar, gluttonous, grandiose, dishonest, stupid, jejune, voracious, greedy, cruel, cowardly and evil. That's Trump).
Salmond appointed him globalscot ambassador when the Country was run by the Lab-Lib coalition?
What worries most is that it does seem that whatever governments do or don't do has little bearing on what is happening. The only conclusion seems to be that the public are not complying in sufficient numbers to stop the spread. I also suspect that the percentages of the miscreants is probably low but that is all it takes! Profoundly depressing.
Early modeling during the initial Wuhan outbreak (from Imperial IIRC) showed that as little as 10% non-compliance would effectively invalidate suppression (although it would still flatten the curve).
A link to the that study we be useful - I could use it to beat some idiots I know round the head...
"Yes, I know we need a lockdown. But I deserve to have 30 people round for Christmas. and I deserve a holiday in the Sun....." etc etc...
I am not sure I have it. I did an interview with a Chinese TV programme back in late January, and the interviewer threw it at me mid-interview.
I was aware at a moderate level, that the who compliance thing is vital. 10% defection rate brining the whole thing down is another order, though....
What is curious is the response of people to cancelling Christmas - 99% are non-religious, so postponing the whole thing to when it's over seems reasonable.
I've semi-jestingly suggested to the family that we will barbecue a turkey on a beach somewhere when this is all over - a-two-for-one. The joke seems to be taking on a serious form.....
Trump is not like Corbyn or Boris. Or even Farage.
Trump really is something out of this world -- a huge and grotesque caricature of greed and brutality and ugliness and stupidity.
The only character I can think of who at all resembles Donald Trump is Ubu Roi.
And whilst the Republicans own most of this dark and brutal tumour on the human soul -- we should not forget that other parties have supped with this evil man.
He was a registered Democrat between 2002 and 2009.
And, although the SNP probably do not care to be reminded, Alex Salmond appointed him a globalScot ambassador between 2006 and 2015, before Sturgeon stripped him of the title.
(Wiki tells me Ubu Roi is fat, ugly, vulgar, gluttonous, grandiose, dishonest, stupid, jejune, voracious, greedy, cruel, cowardly and evil. That's Trump).
Salmond appointed him globalscot ambassador when the Country was run by the Lab-Lib coalition?
That's some going by the man.
Jack McConnell and SLab do not care to be reminded that they appointed him a globalScot ambassador (can't remember if it was for pointing that out or posting a pic of him in his ridiculous wee kilt that had Lord Jack blocking me on twitter).
It is actually frequently the case that Presidents who are re elected to see their party fail to win the House, that was the case in 2012, 1996, 1984 and 1972 and 1956 for instance so I don't see why the Democrats holding the House should be that much different. There are of course plenty of white working class Trump Democrats especially in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that were generally blue states before Trump and had not voted for a Republican for President since Reagan in 1984 or Bush Snr in 1988 who will split their ticket and vote Trump for President and Democrat for Congress (while in Western states like California and Arizona there will be the reverse, suburban upper middle class voters who will likely vote Biden for President but Republican for Congress).
Neither the Congressional nor Presidential polls show much if any movement of Trump 2016 voters to Biden, any movement Biden has see has mainly come from third party voters in 2016 but some of those will also go for Trump
If you read the piece I talked about the President's party being the incumbent majority in the House.
In 2012, 1996, 1984, 1972, nor 1956 was the winning President's party the incumbent majority, unlike today.
The GOP are not the incumbent majority in the House today either, hence Pelosi is Speaker, in 1994 Clinton's party lost the House as Obama's party lost the House in 2010 as IKE's party lost the House in 1954, that swing was not repeated at the presidential election 2 years later
It is actually frequently the case that Presidents who are re elected to see their party fail to win the House, that was the case in 2012, 1996, 1984 and 1972 and 1956 for instance so I don't see why the Democrats holding the House should be that much different. There are of course plenty of white working class Trump Democrats especially in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that were generally blue states before Trump and had not voted for a Republican for President since Reagan in 1984 or Bush Snr in 1988 who will split their ticket and vote Trump for President and Democrat for Congress (while in Western states like California and Arizona there will be the reverse, suburban upper middle class voters who will likely vote Biden for President but Republican for Congress).
Neither the Congressional nor Presidential polls show much if any movement of Trump 2016 voters to Biden, any movement Biden has see has mainly come from third party voters in 2016 but some of those will also go for Trump
If you read the piece I talked about the President's party being the incumbent majority in the House.
In 2012, 1996, 1984, 1972, nor 1956 was the winning President's party the incumbent majority, unlike today.
The GOP are not the incumbent majority in the House today either, hence Pelosi is Speaker, in 1994 Clinton's party lost the House as Obama's party lost the House in 2010 as IKE's party lost the House in 1954, that swing was not repeated at the presidential election 2 years later
Indeed: and it's unusual that the incumbent President wins back the House.
What worries most is that it does seem that whatever governments do or don't do has little bearing on what is happening. The only conclusion seems to be that the public are not complying in sufficient numbers to stop the spread. I also suspect that the percentages of the miscreants is probably low but that is all it takes! Profoundly depressing.
Early modeling during the initial Wuhan outbreak (from Imperial IIRC) showed that as little as 10% non-compliance would effectively invalidate suppression (although it would still flatten the curve).
A link to the that study we be useful - I could use it to beat some idiots I know round the head...
"Yes, I know we need a lockdown. But I deserve to have 30 people round for Christmas. and I deserve a holiday in the Sun....." etc etc...
I am not sure I have it. I did an interview with a Chinese TV programme back in late January, and the interviewer threw it at me mid-interview.
I was aware at a moderate level, that the who compliance thing is vital. 10% defection rate brining the whole thing down is another order, though....
What is curious is the response of people to cancelling Christmas - 99% are non-religious, so postponing the whole thing to when it's over seems reasonable.
I've semi-jestingly suggested to the family that we will barbecue a turkey on a beach somewhere when this is all over - a-two-for-one. The joke seems to be taking on a serious form.....
Christmas is not religious, and is time-critical. The two most shit months are Nov and January, and only Christmas saves December from being worst of the lot.
Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.
I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
I already did - situation not person. Some thought 2019 would be 2017 all over again, and it wasn't.
I really don't know why people find applying the same logic to the US hard to understand, even if they disagree and do think 2020 will be 2016 redux.
The personalities of those involved is irrelevant to the analogy.
The ideologies were different The perspective voter classes different The media environment different Trump is backed to the hilt by his party elite, Corbyn was never supported
I can only bridge the two by saying one was the left crying out against the orthodoxy and the other the right.
Trump was hated not backed to the hilt by his party elite. The Lincoln Project etc are all ran by former party elite who fled the party after Trump's acolytes took it over. Sound at all familiar?
Where are the senatorial rebellions then? Where are the masses of outspoken governors? Where's the Bush condemnation as Blair did.
The governing republican party has fallen in line. The Labour parliamentary party never did.
Have you not been paying attention to all the Republicans who have endorsed Biden or opposed Trump? Literally hundreds of big Republican names have rebelled against the party line.
Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.
I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
The parallels between Corbyn and Trump are remarkable. Cyclefree did an excellent thread header commenting on it but you can dig much deeper.
Between Boris and Biden it is more the situation than the people but there are some similarities.
Both gaffe-prone.
Both could have been natural successors last time (as Veep/figurehead of Vote Leave).
Both never ended up running last time and beaten by a female rival instead, due to lack of support for them getting the top job from within their own party.
Biden dismissed as past it/too old/senile like Boris is dismissed as clownish/lazy/unserious.
Both "good enough" to defeat the opponent they're faced with.
You're so full of shit. I didn't read the cyclefree article but if she said 'the parallels between Trump and Corbyn are remarkable' I'd be amazed. It's crap and therefore got your handwriting all over it. cyclefree considers what she posts.
No shit Sherlock. You know shit. You think Brexit is a piece of shit. I think Brexit is the shit. You don't give a shit for sovereignty and I won't take shit from you though we agree Trump is a piece of shit. Anyway I now have shit to do.
Remember when everybody was pointing to Italy and saying well they seem to be doing well, little sign of second wave.
Yes - i was aware of the positivity rates in most of those countries. Like them, the French rate is staggering, combined with the testing levels. What is France really at now? 200K infections per day, possibly.
When you combine testing levels etc, it is clear that COVID is going up very steeply across Europe.
I'm still looking for any population surveys (ONS /REACT style) that have been done in these countries..??
Well, there’s this.
Slovakia to test all adults for SARS-CoV-2 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32261-3/fulltext ... Anyone testing positive must remain in strict self-isolation at their home for 10 days, or they can go to a quarantine facility provided by the state. Many shops are being closed and restrictions on movement imposed during the 3-week period of testing with people subject to random spot checks by police. Everyone taking the test will be given a certificate to present if requested. Failure to do so could result in a fine of €1650. The testing is voluntary, but anyone not participating must self-isolate in their homes for 10 days. Breaking this quarantine also carries a fine of €1650. Individuals older than 65 years who spend most of their time at home have been urged not to participate, but the government has said that it will carry out testing of older people in care homes. Testing will also be done in hospitals...
What worries most is that it does seem that whatever governments do or don't do has little bearing on what is happening. The only conclusion seems to be that the public are not complying in sufficient numbers to stop the spread. I also suspect that the percentages of the miscreants is probably low but that is all it takes! Profoundly depressing.
Early modeling during the initial Wuhan outbreak (from Imperial IIRC) showed that as little as 10% non-compliance would effectively invalidate suppression (although it would still flatten the curve).
A link to the that study we be useful - I could use it to beat some idiots I know round the head...
"Yes, I know we need a lockdown. But I deserve to have 30 people round for Christmas. and I deserve a holiday in the Sun....." etc etc...
I am not sure I have it. I did an interview with a Chinese TV programme back in late January, and the interviewer threw it at me mid-interview.
I was aware at a moderate level, that the who compliance thing is vital. 10% defection rate brining the whole thing down is another order, though....
What is curious is the response of people to cancelling Christmas - 99% are non-religious, so postponing the whole thing to when it's over seems reasonable.
I've semi-jestingly suggested to the family that we will barbecue a turkey on a beach somewhere when this is all over - a-two-for-one. The joke seems to be taking on a serious form.....
This is not the paper I was thinking about, but from a similar time period, looking at effectiveness of traveller screening at the early stages of a pandemic, and comes to similar conclusion that even if only 5% of cases are not detected through the screening, you have a problem
This particular problem diminishes as prevalence of the virus increases in the populace. And I assume the quarantine effectiveness paper I referred to also assumes very low prevalence in the population.
Remember when everybody was pointing to Italy and saying well they seem to be doing well, little sign of second wave.
Yes - i was aware of the positivity rates in most of those countries. Like them, the French rate is staggering, combined with the testing levels. What is France really at now? 200K infections per day, possibly.
When you combine testing levels etc, it is clear that COVID is going up very steeply across Europe.
I'm still looking for any population surveys (ONS /REACT style) that have been done in these countries..??
Well, there’s this.
Slovakia to test all adults for SARS-CoV-2 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32261-3/fulltext ... Anyone testing positive must remain in strict self-isolation at their home for 10 days, or they can go to a quarantine facility provided by the state. Many shops are being closed and restrictions on movement imposed during the 3-week period of testing with people subject to random spot checks by police. Everyone taking the test will be given a certificate to present if requested. Failure to do so could result in a fine of €1650. The testing is voluntary, but anyone not participating must self-isolate in their homes for 10 days. Breaking this quarantine also carries a fine of €1650. Individuals older than 65 years who spend most of their time at home have been urged not to participate, but the government has said that it will carry out testing of older people in care homes. Testing will also be done in hospitals...
I definitely approve. If we did that with proper lockdown and isolation I'd be fully in favour of it. Our problem here is that everything we do is half hearted, this lockdown is half hearted, our isolation system is, our quarantine measures are. We do everything with a degree of incompetence that makes them completey useless.
Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.
I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
I already did - situation not person. Some thought 2019 would be 2017 all over again, and it wasn't.
I really don't know why people find applying the same logic to the US hard to understand, even if they disagree and do think 2020 will be 2016 redux.
The personalities of those involved is irrelevant to the analogy.
The ideologies were different The perspective voter classes different The media environment different Trump is backed to the hilt by his party elite, Corbyn was never supported
I can only bridge the two by saying one was the left crying out against the orthodoxy and the other the right.
Trump was hated not backed to the hilt by his party elite. The Lincoln Project etc are all ran by former party elite who fled the party after Trump's acolytes took it over. Sound at all familiar?
Where are the senatorial rebellions then? Where are the masses of outspoken governors? Where's the Bush condemnation as Blair did.
The governing republican party has fallen in line. The Labour parliamentary party never did.
Have you not been paying attention to all the Republicans who have endorsed Biden or opposed Trump? Literally hundreds of big Republican names have rebelled against the party line.
Of the governing republican party there are 1 senator 1 congressman and 3 governors. That's not symbolic of hatred. And when it mattered they voted to acquit.
I'm sure there will be hundreds of cowards prepared to denounce the man when he leaves, but their records speak much louder than they ever did. They acquiesced.
As indeed did Starmer etc after the 2017 election.
Remember when everybody was pointing to Italy and saying well they seem to be doing well, little sign of second wave.
Yes - i was aware of the positivity rates in most of those countries. Like them, the French rate is staggering, combined with the testing levels. What is France really at now? 200K infections per day, possibly.
When you combine testing levels etc, it is clear that COVID is going up very steeply across Europe.
I'm still looking for any population surveys (ONS /REACT style) that have been done in these countries..??
Well, there’s this.
Slovakia to test all adults for SARS-CoV-2 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32261-3/fulltext ... Anyone testing positive must remain in strict self-isolation at their home for 10 days, or they can go to a quarantine facility provided by the state. Many shops are being closed and restrictions on movement imposed during the 3-week period of testing with people subject to random spot checks by police. Everyone taking the test will be given a certificate to present if requested. Failure to do so could result in a fine of €1650. The testing is voluntary, but anyone not participating must self-isolate in their homes for 10 days. Breaking this quarantine also carries a fine of €1650. Individuals older than 65 years who spend most of their time at home have been urged not to participate, but the government has said that it will carry out testing of older people in care homes. Testing will also be done in hospitals...
Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.
I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
I already did - situation not person. Some thought 2019 would be 2017 all over again, and it wasn't.
I really don't know why people find applying the same logic to the US hard to understand, even if they disagree and do think 2020 will be 2016 redux.
The personalities of those involved is irrelevant to the analogy.
The ideologies were different The perspective voter classes different The media environment different Trump is backed to the hilt by his party elite, Corbyn was never supported
I can only bridge the two by saying one was the left crying out against the orthodoxy and the other the right.
Trump was hated not backed to the hilt by his party elite. The Lincoln Project etc are all ran by former party elite who fled the party after Trump's acolytes took it over. Sound at all familiar?
Where are the senatorial rebellions then? Where are the masses of outspoken governors? Where's the Bush condemnation as Blair did.
The governing republican party has fallen in line. The Labour parliamentary party never did.
Have you not been paying attention to all the Republicans who have endorsed Biden or opposed Trump? Literally hundreds of big Republican names have rebelled against the party line.
Of the governing republican party there are 1 senator 1 congressman and 3 governors. That's not symbolic of hatred. And when it mattered they voted to acquit.
I'm sure there will be hundreds of cowards prepared to denounce the man when he leaves, but their records speak much louder than they ever did. They acquiesced.
As indeed did Starmer etc after the 2017 election.
Trump is Corbyn, May is Hillary, Boris is Biden and 2020 is to 2016 what 2019 was to 2017.
I'll jump in to save someone from going 'But Corbyn is nothing like Trump' to note it's the situation not the person.
The parallels are tenuous, other than both politicians evident delight in practical campaigning I cannot see it. I think this analogy distracts from a specific UK PM who displays distinct Trumpian values personal and situational. And my god 'Boris as Biden' care to explain?
I already did - situation not person. Some thought 2019 would be 2017 all over again, and it wasn't.
I really don't know why people find applying the same logic to the US hard to understand, even if they disagree and do think 2020 will be 2016 redux.
The personalities of those involved is irrelevant to the analogy.
The ideologies were different The perspective voter classes different The media environment different Trump is backed to the hilt by his party elite, Corbyn was never supported
I can only bridge the two by saying one was the left crying out against the orthodoxy and the other the right.
Trump was hated not backed to the hilt by his party elite. The Lincoln Project etc are all ran by former party elite who fled the party after Trump's acolytes took it over. Sound at all familiar?
Where are the senatorial rebellions then? Where are the masses of outspoken governors? Where's the Bush condemnation as Blair did.
The governing republican party has fallen in line. The Labour parliamentary party never did.
Have you not been paying attention to all the Republicans who have endorsed Biden or opposed Trump? Literally hundreds of big Republican names have rebelled against the party line.
Yes, but when push came to shove, elected Republicans, especially the Senators, were utterly craven and enabling.
After the 2016 election? Yes they were.
Just as Labour MPs were after the 2017 election.
Starmer says how unforgivable the anti-Semitism is now and removes Corbyn now but this time last year he was in the Shadow Cabinet campaigning officially for Corbyn to be our next Prime Minister.
Comments
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1322915147724279810?s=20
Police say they are continuing to deal with an illegal rave at a warehouse near Bristol.
Officers who were called to Yate at around 22:30 GMT on Saturday said up to 700 people were in attendance.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-bristol-54769055
But you seem to be responding to caricature of both of them. Johnson too is someone who can compromise, he is more liberal than his party and was able to twice win London as a result.
He's by every measure, the best leader Labour has had since Blair.
30% think they don't go far enough, Johnson's support base is splintering.
Meanwhile...
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1322214538251481088
The governing republican party has fallen in line. The Labour parliamentary party never did.
There's lots to like about the Labour party, Corbyn isn't part of that though. I'm a very reasonable man, and I'd not really want to hurt anyone. Corbyn though I'd happily hear has had a plague of stubbed toes or small fires in his beard.
To see how quickly the situation there has deteriorated there is shocking. The conclusion I draw, having left Italy just as the summer weather was slipping away, is that being outdoors really is protective, whilst mixing with others indoors is asking for trouble.
My guess is that the Italians took their summer habit of meeting with friends and family in bars and restaurants outdoors, which was relatively safe, indoors when the weather changed.
In 2012, 1996, 1984, 1972, nor 1956 was the winning President's party the incumbent majority, unlike today.
So I would guess what has happened is again it has been spreading quietly away, much less testing than here, and now its gone pop as it has hit the oldies (just like Feb / March).
His 2015 campaign was a disaster, Labour then had no vision or idea on what it was for or where it was going. It got stuck in the past. Corbyn can be credited with stopping that, of course it was a disaster.
But team Starmer isn't team Blairite which is equally good.
Clothes shops busy lobbying Tory backbenchers to keep them open as essential?
Trump really is something out of this world -- a huge and grotesque caricature of greed and brutality and ugliness and stupidity.
The only character I can think of who at all resembles Donald Trump is Ubu Roi.
And whilst the Republicans own most of this dark and brutal tumour on the human soul -- we should not forget that other parties have supped with this evil man.
He was a registered Democrat between 2002 and 2009.
And, although the SNP probably do not care to be reminded, Alex Salmond appointed him a globalScot ambassador between 2006 and 2015, before Sturgeon stripped him of the title.
(Wiki tells me Ubu Roi is fat, ugly, vulgar, gluttonous, grandiose, dishonest, stupid, jejune, voracious, greedy, cruel, cowardly and evil. That's Trump).
Given I’ve long thought Donald Trump unelectable for a second term I’m not about to change my mind now the polls have come around and are playing ball. Is it Covid that has doomed him? Maybe. Who cares. All that matters atm are the number of votes and where they fall.
One thing you can say for Trump is that he enthuses lots of people. Just because I can't empathize with this doesn't mean I don't see it. Such love for the man. Hence why he’s going to get more votes than anyone has ever gotten before in a US presidential election. Amazing.
But tough shit because Joe Biden will beat it by over 10 million.
This will be sufficient to take the RustBelt, plus NC and AZ, plus at least 2 of FL, TX, GA, OH.
So, a clear win in both PV and EC. Trump below 200 in the latter. ByeDon.
See you on the other side -
You get what you get with party leaders though. I didn't much like May as a leader, although at times she really did well. If you're a LD then you've got the problems double strength - leader trouble and party trouble.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Republicans_who_oppose_the_Donald_Trump_2020_presidential_campaign
© @kinabalu
When you combine testing levels etc, it is clear that COVID is going up very steeply across Europe.
I'm still looking for any population surveys (ONS /REACT style) that have been done in these countries..??
"Yes, I know we need a lockdown. But I deserve to have 30 people round for Christmas. and I deserve a holiday in the Sun....." etc etc...
Edit: Or many of them: https://www.googleadservices.com/pagead/aclk?sa=L&ai=DChcSEwingPa21-HsAhUStsgKHc-yDWoYABAAGgJxdQ&ohost=www.google.com&cid=CAASE-RoBg3Fm1jF3rARz3NKIhhwdyM&sig=AOD64_3Xy-5PBwN1ILtYuTYuyL9sg2onXA&q&adurl&ved=2ahUKEwjbi--21-HsAhXjlOAKHdlFAM8Q0Qx6BAgGEAE
It is shocking that both Teresa May The Tory govt has been applying Labours 2015 manifesto and yet none of the mainstream media have labelled the policies as extreme because one suspects nearly all the MSM's personnel private opinions are located loosely around Ed Miliband worldviews
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/no-sean-connery-didnt-donald-22940228
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1322925071674073091?s=21
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-biden-bests-trump-latino-voters-2-1-margin-n1245670
'It's Joe, Bye Don!'
Don't worry MrEd et al, I've also got some puns if Don wins.
That's some going by the man.
You know shit.
You think Brexit is a piece of shit.
I think Brexit is the shit.
You don't give a shit for sovereignty
and I won't take shit from you
though we agree Trump is a piece of shit.
Anyway I now have shit to do.
see Ismo Leikola https://youtu.be/jcAdwNOfyUQ
Unquiet flows the Don.
I'm sure there will be hundreds of cowards prepared to denounce the man when he leaves, but their records speak much louder than they ever did. They acquiesced.
https://www.ft.com/content/87cb3c4e-9f55-11e5-beba-5e33e2b79e46
'Trump's victory means America, if not the world, is more fucked than a stepmom on Pornhub.'
That was my first and last post on Trump. If we see him hauled off to prison, then I'll celebrate with another post. 😁
Or will you save The Last Post for when he’s actually shot?
Democrats to sweep House, Senate and Presidency.
Just in case anyone needs any more clues.
I knew he was a globalScot. If SLAB appointed him, then it is their shame. However, Alex Salmond certainly cosied up to him for a long time.
I gave Nicola the credit for removing him in the original posting.
What is curious is the response of people to cancelling Christmas - 99% are non-religious, so postponing the whole thing to when it's over seems reasonable.
I've semi-jestingly suggested to the family that we will barbecue a turkey on a beach somewhere when this is all over - a-two-for-one. The joke seems to be taking on a serious form.....
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-boris-johnson-accused-by-ex-tory-leader-of-giving-in-to-scientific-advisers-and-marching-england-back-into-lockdown-12120759
For goodness sake, haven't we had enough of experts?
Easy mistake to make.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-qoaioG2UA&ab_channel=neuIlaryRheinKlange
Slovakia to test all adults for SARS-CoV-2
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32261-3/fulltext
... Anyone testing positive must remain in strict self-isolation at their home for 10 days, or they can go to a quarantine facility provided by the state. Many shops are being closed and restrictions on movement imposed during the 3-week period of testing with people subject to random spot checks by police. Everyone taking the test will be given a certificate to present if requested. Failure to do so could result in a fine of €1650. The testing is voluntary, but anyone not participating must self-isolate in their homes for 10 days. Breaking this quarantine also carries a fine of €1650. Individuals older than 65 years who spend most of their time at home have been urged not to participate, but the government has said that it will carry out testing of older people in care homes. Testing will also be done in hospitals...
@MaxPB should approve, as do I.
https://escholarship.org/content/qt7597065v/qt7597065v_noSplash_26b2fcf36cc04cb04885fca402709b5e.pdf
This particular problem diminishes as prevalence of the virus increases in the populace. And I assume the quarantine effectiveness paper I referred to also assumes very low prevalence in the population.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group
I still think your reply works fine though. After all Johnson is American born.
The problem is the self-isolating bit. The evidence here is a that people simply don't quarantine even when they don't *have* to break isolation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Change_UK
London is a swarthy mess. The best place on the planet though.
Just as Labour MPs were after the 2017 election.
Starmer says how unforgivable the anti-Semitism is now and removes Corbyn now but this time last year he was in the Shadow Cabinet campaigning officially for Corbyn to be our next Prime Minister.