YouGov finds that if given the chance Britain would overwhelmingly vote Trump out – politicalbetting

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Andy_JS said:

contrarian said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Slackbladder said:

On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.

Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

And yet. Here we are

This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

The cure is killing the patient.

The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.

The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.

It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.

No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.

The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.

Philip_Thompson said:

BluestBlue said:

Roy_G_Biv said:

LadyG said:

Roy_G_Biv said:

LadyG said:

Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

Look at this:

https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

"Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue?
If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?

Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.

Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it

"the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53580326

Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit?
If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.

To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.

Why don't we all have audiovisual bugs installed in every room of our houses then? They could livestream to the authorities 24 hours a day and make the detection of wrongthink so much easier...

For most people 1984 was a warning.
For some people 1984 was an instruction manual.

Alistair said:

contrarian said:

Trafalgar are out with another poll

I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats

Casino_Royale said:

NerysHughes said:

Casino_Royale said:

If an effective vaccine approved and available for the public (however small the initial rollout) by end of May 2020 were a Betfair exchange market, how would you price it?

I'll go first: 1.8 is my opening.

By May 2021 1.01

Strong. Why do you think it's a near certainty?

I think we have very good evidence from phase III trials but there's always a risk of a late catastrophic issue that scuppers it.

rottenborough said:

Stocky said:

NerysHughes said:

rottenborough said:

LadyG said:

Here we go. If Germany is doing this, and France, so will we

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1321494842904633346?s=20


What's the betting these last right through to 2021? Maybe Spring 2021?

Horrific

Just about to go into Tier 3 here. No one I have spoken to expects us to be allowed out of it until the spring. Apart from anything no minister can articulate what the strategy is or criteria for leaving it other than blather about protecting the NHS. If that is the goal then it is Tier 3 until the winter is over. There is always going to be pressure on beds from now until, say, March.

The escape strategy is the vaccine

Yep, nations are staking everything on it. Wealth, liberties the lot. Biggest bet in history. FFS pray it pays off.

Except one.

“It’s a big mistake to sit down and say ‘we should just wait for a vaccine’. It will take much longer than we think. And in the end, we don’t know how good a vaccine it will be. It’s another reason to have a sustainable policy in place.”

Anders Tegnell (Sweden)


https://www.ft.com/content/a2b4c18c-a5e8-4edc-8047-ade4a82a548d

williamglenn said:

Alistair said:

contrarian said:

Trafalgar are out with another poll

I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats

For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)

williamglenn said:

Alistair said:

contrarian said:

Trafalgar are out with another poll

I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats

For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)

williamglenn said:

williamglenn said:

Alistair said:

contrarian said:

Trafalgar are out with another poll

I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats

For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)

Incidentally, the head to head figures are narrowing.

williamglenn said:

Alistair said:

contrarian said:

Trafalgar are out with another poll

I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats

For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)

williamglenn said:

williamglenn said:

Alistair said:

contrarian said:

Trafalgar are out with another poll

I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats

For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)

Incidentally, the head to head figures are narrowing.

Malmesbury said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Andy_JS said:

contrarian said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Slackbladder said:

On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.

Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

And yet. Here we are

This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

The cure is killing the patient.

The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.

The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.

It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.

No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.

The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.

In much of Australia, the housing is far, far more spacious. There are some pokey flats in bits of Sydney....

But much of it isn't. I recall one entertaining example - an estate agent in the suburbs of Melbourne had put a full sized snooker table in the corner of *one* of the living rooms of a middle class house. To make the room feel less empty....

There is still 5 million odd people in Melbourne and Sydney though. No an insignificant number, who still have to go to buy food etc. We aren't talking that they have managed it better, like say Germany, they have basically stopped it in its tracks. Without the security guards bonking the hotel guests in quarantine, they would hardly have seen any since the initial cluster of infections.

They had a 110 day total lockdown

Most of those 5 million have a lot more space. Public transport is also much less prevalent. So people live (on average) in what, by UK standards would be huge houses and travel everywhere in their own personal transport bubble...

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

williamglenn said:

Alistair said:

contrarian said:

Trafalgar are out with another poll

I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats

For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)

Incidentally, the head to head figures are narrowing.

Ifop earlier this month has Macron in the range 23% -28% in round 1 and Le Pen in the range 23% -27%
https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/117621-Rapport-T1s.pdf

Malmesbury said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

turbotubbs said:

Malmesbury said:

UK cases summary

Any attempt to use the last 3-5 days to prove anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete will lead to the following. The offender being lockdown down in a room with Piers Corbyn, Piers Morgan, Julian Assange and a Lawyer in his wife's kimono. For 2 weeks. With only the worst bits of ConservativeHome for entertainment.

Malmesbury - I've wondered this for a while, but do you know why the positivity rate shows a weekly pattern? Shouldn't it be much smoother?

That's a very good question. If anything, you might expect the proportion of positive cases to increase, rather than decrease, at the weekend with fewer specimens being taken but more likely to be of infected people. It's not at all obvious to me why the positivity rate should decrease at the weekend!

Less people getting tested in the hospitals/test and trace teams?

Seems the highest values are Mondays. Hmmmmmm.....

williamglenn said:

Alistair said:

contrarian said:

Trafalgar are out with another poll

I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats

For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)

LostPassword said:

alex_ said:

Despite all these new lockdowns all over Europe, isn't the jury still out over whether they will have any real impact?

Because... schools.

Throughout there has always been this talk of trade offs, about pubs opening vs schools closing etc, but is anyone really sure if this trade off actually exists? Especially if pubs are largely enforcing and people complying with the "single household" rules (i'm sure that boyfriends/girlfriends etc aren't, but then they wouldn't be anyway pub or no pub).

Or is the whole issue really just... schools? And if schools stay open and children continue to mix (as they inevitably will, both outside and inside) then might the lockdowns just not make any material difference?

That's possible. Some evidence from Ireland suggests it's unlikely.

The positivity rate for close contacts of a positive case in a school is less than 3%. The positivity rate for close contacts of a positive case elsewhere is 10%.

This suggests that the virus is much less likely to spread within schools than elsewhere.

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

contrarian said:

Trafalgar are out with another poll

I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats

They also have Biden leading 25 to 34s and 35-44s, Biden and it almost tied with 45-64s and 65s +, so what?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JUtEW3UCKQi33nZ8hYdItUZ2w_aIIUTk/view

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

contrarian said:

Trafalgar are out with another poll

I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats

They also have Biden leading 25 to 34s and 35-44s, Biden and it almost tied with 45-64s and 65s +, so what?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JUtEW3UCKQi33nZ8hYdItUZ2w_aIIUTk/view

Alistair said:

williamglenn said:

Alistair said:

contrarian said:

Trafalgar are out with another poll

I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats

For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)

This was exactly the same as in 2016, Michigan, Colorado it didn't matter. Wherever Trafalgar did a poll with cross tabs the 18-24 would be breaking heavily for Trump.

Exit polls did not back this up.

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

contrarian said:

Trafalgar are out with another poll

I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats

They also have Biden leading 25 to 34s and 35-44s, Biden and it almost tied with 45-64s and 65s +, so what?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JUtEW3UCKQi33nZ8hYdItUZ2w_aIIUTk/view

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

contrarian said:

Trafalgar are out with another poll

I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats

They also have Biden leading 25 to 34s and 35-44s, Biden and it almost tied with 45-64s and 65s +, so what?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JUtEW3UCKQi33nZ8hYdItUZ2w_aIIUTk/view

So its fake and shouldn't be taken seriously by anyone.

solarflare said:

Philip_Thompson said:

solarflare said:

What will be interesting is the reaction of a covid-fatigued public to the news that despite the delivery of a vaccine they may still have another 6 months plus of the same levels of restrictions to suck up until the vaccine is rolled out in any vaguely meaningful numbers.

It shouldn't take six months to be vaguely meaningful.

If there's any efficacy to the vaccine then simply rolling it out at care homes (which can be done reasonably rapidly) will make a tremendous difference on figures and risks of hospital capacity.

So how quickly after a vaccine is announced do you foresee the end of the tier system, the end of masks in public, the end of social distancing, total normality? Just out of curiosity.

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

williamglenn said:

Alistair said:

contrarian said:

Trafalgar are out with another poll

I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats

For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)

Incidentally, the head to head figures are narrowing.

Ifop earlier this month has Macron in the range 23% -28% in round 1 and Le Pen in the range 23% -27%
https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/117621-Rapport-T1s.pdf

Round 1 is irrelevant.

Le Pen can't win Round 2.

Peter_the_Punter said:

OllyT said:

brokenwheel said:

FPT

OllyT said:

contrarian said:

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

Gallowgate said:

Anabobazina said:

Gallowgate said:

Anabobazina said:

Mal557 said:

For me , although there are lots of permutations, who wins the election will come down to two states, FL and PA. If Biden wins FL he's going to win, end of. If he loses, though there may be some ups and downs , I think it will come down to PA.
I still think the national polls are reflecting more that Biden is doing better in places like TX and GA but I don't expect him to win either or NC. AZ I think he will. I am pretty confident he will win MI and WI but I have real doubts about PA, yes he's about 5% up but the mood music there seems so volatile.
So I think if it comes down to PA (which I think it will as i suspect Trump will win FL just), we may have to wait a while to know who's won and can expect some shenanigans over postal votes. So much against my personal wishes I really can see Trump falling over the line, despite losing the popular vote by more than 2016 and only just getting past 270 this time.
Now I need a stiff drink

This is my exact fear – and my forecast – although I think in that scenario, it ends up 269-269?

The one prediction I want to make is that I think Biden wins Georgia in almost all circumstances.

Well if that happens he is in the White House.

What makes you so confident?

(P.S. I share others' scepticism about a PA Biden win)

I think the failed (but slim) Stacey Abrams election attempt will drive further turnout in favour of the Dems.

Look at Fulton County - Atlanta - 344,876 votes so far. That’s 80% of the 2016 turnout already.

There is a plausible scenario whereby Biden underperforms in the rustbelt but arrives in the White House via the sunbelt.

I see Ladbrokes now have Trump favourite to win FL at 8/11

And as Florida goes, so goes the presidency, generally. But stop bothering people with facts.

That is simply not true, but then facts never really seem to impinge much on your world view. Biden could easily win whilst losing Florida

Sorry but this is balls, Florida has picked the winner since 1996, and almost every time before that. After Ohio it is the state that best represents the diversity, both economically and demographically, of the whole US. If your message has failed in Florida, it's really quite unlikely it will work in the other states you need to flip.

Ohio is going to be safe R, and Florida may not be far behind.

The point under discussion is that because Florida has generally voted for the winner Biden can't win if he loses Florida. That's absolute bollox.

Yes, Florida is far from essential for Biden which is just as well because I suspect he will lose it. In the past it has been pivotal but that honour belongs to Pennsylvania now. Difficult for either to win without PA although more so Trump than Biden. Nate S did a good piece on this:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-toast-if-he-loses-pennsylvania/

My guess is that Biden will win with PA plus one or two from Ariz/Geo/Iowa/NC. That should do it because I just don't see Trump getting close in any of the States leaning more Biden's way than PA - i.e. Nev/Mic/Minn/Wisc etc. They are all looking pretty solid.

It therefore no longer looks to me a question of whether Biden wins, but by how much. I'm reckoning a modest distance, but it could easily stretch because Ariz/Geo etc are all on a knife edge.

And then there's always Texas!

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

CarlottaVance said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Andy_JS said:

contrarian said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Slackbladder said:

On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.

Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

And yet. Here we are

This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

The cure is killing the patient.

The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.

The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.

It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.

No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.

The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.

Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.

Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc

This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-australia/australia-closes-internal-borders-to-capitalise-on-fall-in-new-coronavirus-cases-idUKKBN21K3JZ

But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.

I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.

alex_ said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

CarlottaVance said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Andy_JS said:

contrarian said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Slackbladder said:

On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.

Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

And yet. Here we are

This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

The cure is killing the patient.

The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.

The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.

It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.

No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.

The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.

Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.

Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc

This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-australia/australia-closes-internal-borders-to-capitalise-on-fall-in-new-coronavirus-cases-idUKKBN21K3JZ

But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.

I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.

Is there any real evidence of "packed" beaches having any impact much at all?

FrancisUrquhart said:

alex_ said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

CarlottaVance said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Andy_JS said:

contrarian said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Slackbladder said:

On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.

Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

And yet. Here we are

This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

The cure is killing the patient.

The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.

The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.

It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.

No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.

The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.

Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.

Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc

This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-australia/australia-closes-internal-borders-to-capitalise-on-fall-in-new-coronavirus-cases-idUKKBN21K3JZ

But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.

I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.

Is there any real evidence of "packed" beaches having any impact much at all?

The more people travel around, the more they use the loos, the more they touch everything, etc etc etc.

Philip_Thompson said:

solarflare said:

Philip_Thompson said:

solarflare said:

What will be interesting is the reaction of a covid-fatigued public to the news that despite the delivery of a vaccine they may still have another 6 months plus of the same levels of restrictions to suck up until the vaccine is rolled out in any vaguely meaningful numbers.

It shouldn't take six months to be vaguely meaningful.

If there's any efficacy to the vaccine then simply rolling it out at care homes (which can be done reasonably rapidly) will make a tremendous difference on figures and risks of hospital capacity.

So how quickly after a vaccine is announced do you foresee the end of the tier system, the end of masks in public, the end of social distancing, total normality? Just out of curiosity.

No idea. Maybe a year for an end to all of it including masks?

But if we can see an end to regions going into Tier 3 - and more regions going from Tier 3 to Tier 2 instead, or Tier 2 to Tier 1 instead etc - then that would be progress.

LadyG said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

CarlottaVance said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Andy_JS said:

contrarian said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Slackbladder said:

On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.

Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

And yet. Here we are

This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

The cure is killing the patient.

The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.

The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.

It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.

No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.

The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.

Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.

Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc

This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-australia/australia-closes-internal-borders-to-capitalise-on-fall-in-new-coronavirus-cases-idUKKBN21K3JZ

But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.

I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.

Maybe, but I've just been down in Cornwall where they were all terrified that the huge influx of holidaymakers after lockdown (and the surge was massive and prolonged, because most British tourists could or would not go abroad) would inevitably lead to a sharp rise in Covid cases in Cornwall.

Yet it hasn't happened at all. Cornwall is still almost Covid-free.

This virus is a bloody mysterious little bastard. It never behaves QUITE how you expect

LadyG said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

CarlottaVance said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Andy_JS said:

contrarian said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Slackbladder said:

On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.

Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

And yet. Here we are

This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

The cure is killing the patient.

The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.

The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.

It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.

No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.

The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.

Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.

Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc

This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-australia/australia-closes-internal-borders-to-capitalise-on-fall-in-new-coronavirus-cases-idUKKBN21K3JZ

But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.

I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.

Maybe, but I've just been down in Cornwall where they were all terrified that the huge influx of holidaymakers after lockdown (and the surge was massive and prolonged, because most British tourists could or would not go abroad) would inevitably lead to a sharp rise in Covid cases in Cornwall.

Yet it hasn't happened at all. Cornwall is still almost Covid-free.

This virus is a bloody mysterious little bastard. It never behaves QUITE how you expect

Slackbladder said:

On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked... (and that includes us).

alex_ said:

LadyG said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

CarlottaVance said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Andy_JS said:

contrarian said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Slackbladder said:

On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.

Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

And yet. Here we are

This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

The cure is killing the patient.

The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.

The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.

It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.

No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.

The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.

Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.

Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc

This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-australia/australia-closes-internal-borders-to-capitalise-on-fall-in-new-coronavirus-cases-idUKKBN21K3JZ

But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.

I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.

Maybe, but I've just been down in Cornwall where they were all terrified that the huge influx of holidaymakers after lockdown (and the surge was massive and prolonged, because most British tourists could or would not go abroad) would inevitably lead to a sharp rise in Covid cases in Cornwall.

Yet it hasn't happened at all. Cornwall is still almost Covid-free.

This virus is a bloody mysterious little bastard. It never behaves QUITE how you expect

All makes perfect sense if you hypothesise that almost all transmission is via airborne transmission and inside. So schools, universities and households. And other non socially distanced indoor venues.

The current favoured forms of lockdowns/restrictions focus almost entirely on clamping down on the latter, leaving the former 3 untouched. Unlike March/April when only households were left untouched. Which in isolation isn't that much of a problem, because there is limited route that the virus can get in to any single household in absence of the other factors.

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

CarlottaVance said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Andy_JS said:

contrarian said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Slackbladder said:

On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.

Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

And yet. Here we are

This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

The cure is killing the patient.

The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.

The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.

It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.

No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.

The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.

Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.

Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc

This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-australia/australia-closes-internal-borders-to-capitalise-on-fall-in-new-coronavirus-cases-idUKKBN21K3JZ

But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.

I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.

Maybe, but I've just been down in Cornwall where they were all terrified that the huge influx of holidaymakers after lockdown (and the surge was massive and prolonged, because most British tourists could or would not go abroad) would inevitably lead to a sharp rise in Covid cases in Cornwall.

Yet it hasn't happened at all. Cornwall is still almost Covid-free.

This virus is a bloody mysterious little bastard. It never behaves QUITE how you expect

It is interesting, because we know that the European getaway to sunny climbs has caused spread both in that country and across Europe. Maybe as the Cornish are always wary of the Grockles, they already have a built in mechanism to avoid the plague bringers.

It spreads eagerly when people mix indoors, but not outdoors. Most of the patterns we are seeing can be so explained. Where there has been spread arising from summer travel, it’s been to spots with lively nightlife.

LadyG said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1321451110666850313?s=20

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1321451116320722950?s=20

I have no issue with either of them, but it's very hard to escape the conclusion that they (or Harry at least) wants all the attention of being royal with none of the intrusion. Which is something I imagine many people have sympathy with, but is also not what they want from their royals.

It doesn't help that Harry and Meghan are lecturing us on what awful racists we are, from a $10m mansion in sunny southern California, while we sit in the chilly drizzle listening to their bilge

They are only going to get more unpopular from here on. It is very sad. I predicted they would become like Edward and Mrs Simpson, quietly loathed by Brits as they partied in their Bahamas mansion, and so it is proving.

Harry has made a tragic error. She will divorce him in a few years.

FrancisUrquhart said:

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

CarlottaVance said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Andy_JS said:

contrarian said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Slackbladder said:

On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.

Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

And yet. Here we are

This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

The cure is killing the patient.

The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.

The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.

It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.

No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.

The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.

Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.

Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc

This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-australia/australia-closes-internal-borders-to-capitalise-on-fall-in-new-coronavirus-cases-idUKKBN21K3JZ

But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.

I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.

Maybe, but I've just been down in Cornwall where they were all terrified that the huge influx of holidaymakers after lockdown (and the surge was massive and prolonged, because most British tourists could or would not go abroad) would inevitably lead to a sharp rise in Covid cases in Cornwall.

Yet it hasn't happened at all. Cornwall is still almost Covid-free.

This virus is a bloody mysterious little bastard. It never behaves QUITE how you expect

It is interesting, because we know that the European getaway to sunny climbs has caused spread both in that country and across Europe. Maybe as the Cornish are always wary of the Grockles, they already have a built in mechanism to avoid the plague bringers.

It spreads eagerly when people mix indoors, but not outdoors. Most of the patterns we are seeing can be so explained. Where there has been spread arising from summer travel, it’s been to spots with lively nightlife.

Yes I think that's true. I also wonder about spending 2-3hrs in an airport with 1000s of other people, compared to going to Cornwall in your car.

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

williamglenn said:

Alistair said:

contrarian said:

Trafalgar are out with another poll

I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats

For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)

Incidentally, the head to head figures are narrowing.

Ifop earlier this month has Macron in the range 23% -28% in round 1 and Le Pen in the range 23% -27%
https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/117621-Rapport-T1s.pdf

Round 1 is irrelevant.

Le Pen can't win Round 2.

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

CarlottaVance said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

Andy_JS said:

contrarian said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Slackbladder said:

On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.

Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

And yet. Here we are

This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

The cure is killing the patient.

The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.

The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.

It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.

No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.

The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.

Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.

Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc

This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-australia/australia-closes-internal-borders-to-capitalise-on-fall-in-new-coronavirus-cases-idUKKBN21K3JZ

But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.

I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.

Maybe, but I've just been down in Cornwall where they were all terrified that the huge influx of holidaymakers after lockdown (and the surge was massive and prolonged, because most British tourists could or would not go abroad) would inevitably lead to a sharp rise in Covid cases in Cornwall.

Yet it hasn't happened at all. Cornwall is still almost Covid-free.

This virus is a bloody mysterious little bastard. It never behaves QUITE how you expect

It is interesting, because we know that the European getaway to sunny climbs has caused spread both in that country and across Europe. Maybe as the Cornish are always wary of the Grockles, they already have a built in mechanism to avoid the plague bringers.

It spreads eagerly when people mix indoors, but not outdoors. Most of the patterns we are seeing can be so explained. Where there has been spread arising from summer travel, it’s been to spots with lively nightlife.

Yes I think that's true. I also wonder about spending 2-3hrs in an airport with 1000s of other people, compared to going to Cornwall in your car.

For sure, air travel is a risk, likely both in airports and the inside the planes. Wasn’t there a study released just this week that showed as much?

I have thought this must be true since the spring, since the chances of holidaymakers to Italy and Spain both chancing upon and having prolonged indoor contact with the then handfuls (proportionately) of positive cases in those countries seemed way to small to explain the number of people flying back who contracted the virus.

Also note how Europe almost closed down air travel, and recovered from the first wave, whilst the US didn’t, and didn’t.

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

LadyG said:

BluestBlue said:

Roy_G_Biv said:

LadyG said:

Roy_G_Biv said:

LadyG said:

Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

Look at this:

https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

"Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue?
If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?

Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.

Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it

"the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53580326

Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit?
If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.

To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.

Why don't we all have audiovisual bugs installed in every room of our houses then? They could livestream to the authorities 24 hours a day and make the detection of wrongthink so much easier...

We already do, of course: almost every house now contains some smart device which can hear and record human conversation. If you don't have Alexa or Google Home you probably have Siri on your iPhone or Cortana on your computer or you can say "OK Google" to your Android device. And many of these also have cameres able to watch you 24/7

So the government just needs to hook up with Google, Amaazon, Apple etc, and there you are: 1984 has truly arrived.

Its amazing how everybody was totally fearful of ID cards, but perfectly happy to stream audio and video from inside their home to big tech companies. It isn't even as if Alexa or Google Home are even very good. I don't use them, because much easier just to use the remote.

The thing that is annoying with Alexa is just how often it starts responding when you haven't said "Alexa" or anything like it to summon it.

But the really creepy thing I've noticed is how often I've had a conversation discussing something, not searched online for it - and then start seeing adverts online for what we were talking about. Makes me think that my phone is eavesdropping on me and setting adverts based on that.