On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Once you factor in the 70% herd immunity we had in April and the number of false positives then the UK is best placed to deal with the plague.
Its ok though even if those figures are a bit off, as the IFR is less than 0.1% (despite places like NYC showing this is statistically impossible).
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Which makes it utterly criminal for the government to consider a no deal Brexit at the moment.
I was doing a court case this morning and it was just so boring jumping through the hoops, pretending to be outraged, making valid points that weren't going to change the decision and then, finally, getting the Sheriff to do what he was always going to do, let the other side get what they wanted and reward me with some expenses for my trouble.
Brexit is exactly like that. Both sides want a deal, both sides pretend that they are sanguine about no deal, neither are close to being so in reality, everyone knows a deal will be struck baring incompetence well beyond the norm, I just wish they would bloody well get on and do it. Its way past boring and its inconvenient not knowing what the new arrangements are.
North Carolina now more likely to go Biden than Florida on 538.
I agree with this. I'm not counting on Florida even though I'm as confident as ever about TrumpToast. As I've put it once or twice before, I sense Florida could be his "Putney". And it's my biggest fixed odds hedge against my Neptune sized Biden EC supremacy bet.
Hmmm.... Like this: "The percentage of care homes with an outbreak increased progressively with care home size, from 3.7% of care homes with <20 registered places to 90.2% of care homes with 90+ registered places • Almost all outbreaks (336/348) occurred in care homes for older people. There were 1,915 COVID-related deaths (i.e. with any mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate) in this period, occurring in 321 care homes. • COVID-19 associated mortality was concentrated in its impact, more than half of COVID-19 deaths were in 64 homes and a quarter of all COVID-19 deaths were in just 25 homes."
90% of all care homes with more than 90 residents suffered a Covid outbreak and a quarter (almost 500) deaths were in just 25 homes. I mean, wow. These institutions should be named. </p>
Its a problem which doesn't have an easy solution.
If you have a care home with more than 90 residents they almost certainly have more than 100 staff going into that care home (more than a 1:1 ratio between staff and residents if 24/7 care). Even with the best testing in the world if there are over 100 staff going into the home then that's a lot of vectors for possibly getting the virus even with the best PPE in the world.
Plus of course the residents are vulnerable and need medical care - that means either doctors as well as nurses coming into the home (which could also be carriers) or residents going routinely to hospital and back home again - and even if they're tested that leaves the possibility of a false negative due to incubation.
Quite frankly for large care homes, unless the virus isn't spreading in the community I think viral outbreaks are frankly going to be something that happens and to be expected.
HYUFD will you have the courage and good grace to come on here Nov 4th, as I did after the 2019 General Election, and admit that you got this hopelessly and utterly wrong?
Rhetorical so thanks in advance.
If Biden wins a landslide yes, if Trump narrowly wins the EC again but Biden wins the popular vote will you do the same?
What I have to admire about HYUFD is that however much stick he gets he is unshakably polite. I wish I could show such restraint 🤣! While I have never agreed with him on his support for The Clown, his politeness has drawn me to the conclusion that he must be a jolly good egg off the web as well as on it. We should all raise a glass to him!
1,451,462 have already voted 37% in the poll say they have voted
That means the Likely Voter screen says a total turnout of 4 million people
Wisconsin only has 3,583,804 voters total.
DANGER WILL ROBINSON DANGER.
Did you correct for the sample dates of the poll?
Corre ring for sample dates get you to almost exactly the entire voting roll at 3.51 million.
So still way beyond the bounds of credibility
This sounds like the effect that @isam bangs on and on about - the more politically engaged are more likely to respond to opinion polls - and here we see that they are more likely to have voted early too, unsurprisingly.
The question being, does that introduce a bias that will map onto the partisan split, and introduce a systematic error?
Edit: appreciate you going to the trouble of correcting for the sample dates.
Interesting data in the Header. And useful too because it allows us to close out the perennial argument about to what extent the Leave vote was driven by primitive social and cultural attitudes. You know, the old "Some Leavers are like that but by no means all," sentiment. Everyone agrees with this banality but it gets us precisely nowhere unless we can quantify the "Some".
What proportion of Leavers are thick xenophobes? This is the question one could never answer with confidence before this survey but now we can.
"Trump does better with those who voted Leave in the referendum with 38% going for the incumbent."
Viola. A mere 38% of the 17.4m. Not quite 2 in every 5. So there are only of the order 6.6m thick xenophobes in the whole country who voted Leave in 2016. Meaning that 10.8m of those who voted Leave - a clear majority - are NOT thick xenophobes.
So let this be an end to it. It might be a bitter pill to swallow for Remainers such as myself but it's definitive.
Far too generous of you. Leavers might not ALL be fans of Trump-I'm sure in some cases he's too liberal- but there are other ways of judging them. 75% of them support capital punishment for instance and to support Leave you had to get in line behind every loopy racist in the land. They're no different to the Italian fascists who 'just wanted the trains to run on time'. It's bullshit and they're beyond redemption
Ok, I hear you. And there is still quite a differential on the thick xenophobe front. It's only 38% of Leavers per this survey - but given it's also only 20% in total that is a tiny 1% of the rest, say zero.
Thus there are 6.6m thick xenophobes in the UK and they pretty much ALL voted Leave. We can spin it that way if you like.
However, the majority of Leavers appear to want the end of Trump and I have to give credit for that. It really is a litmus test question for me. Any person who wants to see the end of Trump, I will happily break bread and pass the time of day with.
It's quite depressing when you come across somebody you know quite well, know they are quite intelligent, and yet realise they are full on Trumpian. And even if they just about acknowledge some of his faults, totally accept/believe every line that the Trump campaign and his media fanbois push about Biden and "the left".
That would be very depressing for me if it were a friend because I would have to drop them.
Bit of a mixed bag, includes Sir Alan Duncan and Sir Simon Burns who both even backed Kerry in 2004, as well as Javid and Halfon who are more in the mainstream of the party, though neither in the Boris cabinet.
Other Tory backbenchers and an ex minister still refusing to back Biden over his opposition to the internal markets bill
Interesting data in the Header. And useful too because it allows us to close out the perennial argument about to what extent the Leave vote was driven by primitive social and cultural attitudes. You know, the old "Some Leavers are like that but by no means all," sentiment. Everyone agrees with this banality but it gets us precisely nowhere unless we can quantify the "Some".
What proportion of Leavers are thick xenophobes? This is the question one could never answer with confidence before this survey but now we can.
"Trump does better with those who voted Leave in the referendum with 38% going for the incumbent."
Viola. A mere 38% of the 17.4m. Not quite 2 in every 5. So there are only of the order 6.6m thick xenophobes in the whole country who voted Leave in 2016. Meaning that 10.8m of those who voted Leave - a clear majority - are NOT thick xenophobes.
So let this be an end to it. It might be a bitter pill to swallow for Remainers such as myself but it's definitive.
Far too generous of you. Leavers might not ALL be fans of Trump-I'm sure in some cases he's too liberal- but there are other ways of judging them. 75% of them support capital punishment for instance and to support Leave you had to get in line behind every loopy racist in the land. They're no different to the Italian fascists who 'just wanted the trains to run on time'. It's bullshit and they're beyond redemption
Ok, I hear you. And there is still quite a differential on the thick xenophobe front. It's only 38% of Leavers per this survey - but given it's also only 20% in total that is a tiny 1% of the rest, say zero.
Thus there are 6.6m thick xenophobes in the UK and they pretty much ALL voted Leave. We can spin it that way if you like.
However, the majority of Leavers appear to want the end of Trump and I have to give credit for that. It really is a litmus test question for me. Any person who wants to see the end of Trump, I will happily break bread and pass the time of day with.
I wonder who said -
"If you'll forgive the name-drop i remember sitting down to lunch in an outdoor restaurant near Cannes when Boris Becker said 'If you could replace all the French with English this would be the nicest country in the world'."
Interesting data in the Header. And useful too because it allows us to close out the perennial argument about to what extent the Leave vote was driven by primitive social and cultural attitudes. You know, the old "Some Leavers are like that but by no means all," sentiment. Everyone agrees with this banality but it gets us precisely nowhere unless we can quantify the "Some".
What proportion of Leavers are thick xenophobes? This is the question one could never answer with confidence before this survey but now we can.
"Trump does better with those who voted Leave in the referendum with 38% going for the incumbent."
Viola. A mere 38% of the 17.4m. Not quite 2 in every 5. So there are only of the order 6.6m thick xenophobes in the whole country who voted Leave in 2016. Meaning that 10.8m of those who voted Leave - a clear majority - are NOT thick xenophobes.
So let this be an end to it. It might be a bitter pill to swallow for Remainers such as myself but it's definitive.
Far too generous of you. Leavers might not ALL be fans of Trump-I'm sure in some cases he's too liberal- but there are other ways of judging them. 75% of them support capital punishment for instance and to support Leave you had to get in line behind every loopy racist in the land. They're no different to the Italian fascists who 'just wanted the trains to run on time'. It's bullshit and they're beyond redemption
Ok, I hear you. And there is still quite a differential on the thick xenophobe front. It's only 38% of Leavers per this survey - but given it's also only 20% in total that is a tiny 1% of the rest, say zero.
Thus there are 6.6m thick xenophobes in the UK and they pretty much ALL voted Leave. We can spin it that way if you like.
However, the majority of Leavers appear to want the end of Trump and I have to give credit for that. It really is a litmus test question for me. Any person who wants to see the end of Trump, I will happily break bread and pass the time of day with.
I wonder who said -
"If you'll forgive the name-drop i remember sitting down to lunch in an outdoor restaurant near Cannes when Boris Becker said 'If you could replace all the French with English this would be the nicest country in the world'."
Sounds like one of yours?
Nope - never mixed in those circles. Was said on PB by a film critic of note.... who doesn't like xenophobes apparently.
Hmmm.... Like this: "The percentage of care homes with an outbreak increased progressively with care home size, from 3.7% of care homes with <20 registered places to 90.2% of care homes with 90+ registered places • Almost all outbreaks (336/348) occurred in care homes for older people. There were 1,915 COVID-related deaths (i.e. with any mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate) in this period, occurring in 321 care homes. • COVID-19 associated mortality was concentrated in its impact, more than half of COVID-19 deaths were in 64 homes and a quarter of all COVID-19 deaths were in just 25 homes."
90% of all care homes with more than 90 residents suffered a Covid outbreak and a quarter (almost 500) deaths were in just 25 homes. I mean, wow. These institutions should be named. </p>
Its a problem which doesn't have an easy solution.
If you have a care home with more than 90 residents they almost certainly have more than 100 staff going into that care home (more than a 1:1 ratio between staff and residents if 24/7 care). Even with the best testing in the world if there are over 100 staff going into the home then that's a lot of vectors for possibly getting the virus even with the best PPE in the world.
Plus of course the residents are vulnerable and need medical care - that means either doctors as well as nurses coming into the home (which could also be carriers) or residents going routinely to hospital and back home again - and even if they're tested that leaves the possibility of a false negative due to incubation.
Quite frankly for large care homes, unless the virus isn't spreading in the community I think viral outbreaks are frankly going to be something that happens and to be expected.
That's exactly what I was going to say - only much better. The other question I would however have is whether there is any correlation with the kind of company which practises having staff sent almost at random between different homes at short notice (or uses staff who moonlight for another home to makie a living). I seem to recall read that one major outbreak was aacribed to a staff member being sent a long way to a low-virus area (but can't find this piece: possibly pulled for legal threats from the operator).
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Which makes it utterly criminal for the government to consider a no deal Brexit at the moment.
I was doing a court case this morning and it was just so boring jumping through the hoops, pretending to be outraged, making valid points that weren't going to change the decision and then, finally, getting the Sheriff to do what he was always going to do, let the other side get what they wanted and reward me with some expenses for my trouble.
Brexit is exactly like that. Both sides want a deal, both sides pretend that they are sanguine about no deal, neither are close to being so in reality, everyone knows a deal will be struck baring incompetence well beyond the norm, I just wish they would bloody well get on and do it. Its way past boring and its inconvenient not knowing what the new arrangements are.
And you didn’t have a shedload of businesspeople outside waiting on hearing how on Earth they are going to maintain their livelihoods in a couple of months’ time.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
1,451,462 have already voted 37% in the poll say they have voted
That means the Likely Voter screen says a total turnout of 4 million people
Wisconsin only has 3,583,804 voters total.
DANGER WILL ROBINSON DANGER.
There can be an unknown number of ballots in the mail. The voters say that the have voted already yet their votes are not yet received/processed/reported. This could explain part of the inconsistency.
The Government should announce they're putting Bristol into Tier 2 as a response.
I disagree. Bristol's numbers under teetering on the brink of being moved up a tier. No doubt the Council want to avoid this. They are perfectly within their rights to develop their own messaging to their residents of how serious the situation is. And take whatever action they can take themselves within the limits of their authority to try to make sure that the tier 1 restrictions are adhered to. So they've come up with the phrase "tier 1 plus". Who cares? They've got to find some way of communicating the seriousness of the situation. And the measures they are proposing sound sensible to me. Focussing specifically on where they think the problem lies.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
That really sounds like the last desperate act of Trump's campaign, even by his standards. He knows Covid had been his biggest failing so he now thinks, if he shouts loud enough 'ITS OVER' people will flock to him shouting 'Hallelujah'. Of course his base who attend the super spreader rallies already believe this, so I'm not sure who he's hoping to sway
Maybe he think the undecided (who seem to be few in number now) will imagine the disease has gone and will praise the Donald , but it sounds the desperate floundering of a man who knows he's almost toast. Makes you wonder why Trump didnt replace Faucci earlier with Ivanka!
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Which makes it utterly criminal for the government to consider a no deal Brexit at the moment.
I was doing a court case this morning and it was just so boring jumping through the hoops, pretending to be outraged, making valid points that weren't going to change the decision and then, finally, getting the Sheriff to do what he was always going to do, let the other side get what they wanted and reward me with some expenses for my trouble.
Brexit is exactly like that. Both sides want a deal, both sides pretend that they are sanguine about no deal, neither are close to being so in reality, everyone knows a deal will be struck baring incompetence well beyond the norm, I just wish they would bloody well get on and do it. Its way past boring and its inconvenient not knowing what the new arrangements are.
And you didn’t have a shedload of businesspeople outside waiting on hearing how on Earth they are going to maintain their livelihoods in a couple of months’ time.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Which makes it utterly criminal for the government to consider a no deal Brexit at the moment.
I was doing a court case this morning and it was just so boring jumping through the hoops, pretending to be outraged, making valid points that weren't going to change the decision and then, finally, getting the Sheriff to do what he was always going to do, let the other side get what they wanted and reward me with some expenses for my trouble.
Brexit is exactly like that. Both sides want a deal, both sides pretend that they are sanguine about no deal, neither are close to being so in reality, everyone knows a deal will be struck baring incompetence well beyond the norm, I just wish they would bloody well get on and do it. Its way past boring and its inconvenient not knowing what the new arrangements are.
And you didn’t have a shedload of businesspeople outside waiting on hearing how on Earth they are going to maintain their livelihoods in a couple of months’ time.
True. JFDI.
They probably agreed the deal months ago, and everything since then has been to try to co-ordinate away to make it look like one side or the other has succeeded in their aims.
Never mind that most of the short and medium term damage to business is because they are left utterly uncertain about what they have to prepare for and before long it's going to make no material difference whether there is a deal or not. Made worse by the fact that many are hanging on to the belief that a "deal" will be largely similar to the status quo, when it reality the gap between deal and no deal in practical terms is likely to be far closer than the gap between status quo and deal. Perhaps if they agree some sort of six month "implementation period" but that itself will involve substantial climb downs on the UK side.
For me , although there are lots of permutations, who wins the election will come down to two states, FL and PA. If Biden wins FL he's going to win, end of. If he loses, though there may be some ups and downs , I think it will come down to PA. I still think the national polls are reflecting more that Biden is doing better in places like TX and GA but I don't expect him to win either or NC. AZ I think he will. I am pretty confident he will win MI and WI but I have real doubts about PA, yes he's about 5% up but the mood music there seems so volatile. So I think if it comes down to PA (which I think it will as i suspect Trump will win FL just), we may have to wait a while to know who's won and can expect some shenanigans over postal votes. So much against my personal wishes I really can see Trump falling over the line, despite losing the popular vote by more than 2016 and only just getting past 270 this time. Now I need a stiff drink
This is my exact fear – and my forecast – although I think in that scenario, it ends up 269-269?
The one prediction I want to make is that I think Biden wins Georgia in almost all circumstances.
Well if that happens he is in the White House.
What makes you so confident?
(P.S. I share others' scepticism about a PA Biden win)
I think the failed (but slim) Stacey Abrams election attempt will drive further turnout in favour of the Dems.
Look at Fulton County - Atlanta - 344,876 votes so far. That’s 80% of the 2016 turnout already.
There is a plausible scenario whereby Biden underperforms in the rustbelt but arrives in the White House via the sunbelt.
I see Ladbrokes now have Trump favourite to win FL at 8/11
And as Florida goes, so goes the presidency, generally. But stop bothering people with facts.
That is simply not true, but then facts never really seem to impinge much on your world view. Biden could easily win whilst losing Florida
Sorry but this is balls, Florida has picked the winner since 1996, and almost every time before that. After Ohio it is the state that best represents the diversity, both economically and demographically, of the whole US. If your message has failed in Florida, it's really quite unlikely it will work in the other states you need to flip.
Ohio is going to be safe R, and Florida may not be far behind.
The point under discussion is that because Florida has generally voted for the winner Biden can't win if he loses Florida. That's absolute bollox.
Yes, Florida is far from essential for Biden which is just as well because I suspect he will lose it. In the past it has been pivotal but that honour belongs to Pennsylvania now. Difficult for either to win without PA although more so Trump than Biden. Nate S did a good piece on this:
My guess is that Biden will win with PA plus one or two from Ariz/Geo/Iowa/NC. That should do it because I just don't see Trump getting close in any of the States leaning more Biden's way than PA - i.e. Nev/Mic/Minn/Wisc etc. They are all looking pretty solid.
It therefore no longer looks to me a question of whether Biden wins, but by how much. I'm reckoning a modest distance, but it could easily stretch because Ariz/Geo etc are all on a knife edge.
Just complete lack of someone fronting up over West Yorkshire tier 3, which has been on the table for ages and is now critical, is starting to drive me to distraction. The vacuum in the absence of having a metro mayor in place is telling.
Leeds screaming that the hospitals are full, whilst Kirklees dig in, with cross-party support, because they have a marginally lower infection rate - there's under 20% in it I think.
I think some of the resistance in Kirklees goes back to the summer when the whole borough was restricted for an outbreak in one part. Again, that's simply not the case now - it is high everywhere. They should back down now, see the situation as it is, and do the right thing for both ourselves and our neighbouring authorities, before this turns more disastrous. Is seven deaths this week in an ongoing care home outbreak on your patch not enough?
I agree. The lack of clarity here in WY is ridiculous. I've no idea what the position of Bradford council is.
One thing that is certain is that Tier 2 has not stemmed the tide.
For me , although there are lots of permutations, who wins the election will come down to two states, FL and PA. If Biden wins FL he's going to win, end of. If he loses, though there may be some ups and downs , I think it will come down to PA. I still think the national polls are reflecting more that Biden is doing better in places like TX and GA but I don't expect him to win either or NC. AZ I think he will. I am pretty confident he will win MI and WI but I have real doubts about PA, yes he's about 5% up but the mood music there seems so volatile. So I think if it comes down to PA (which I think it will as i suspect Trump will win FL just), we may have to wait a while to know who's won and can expect some shenanigans over postal votes. So much against my personal wishes I really can see Trump falling over the line, despite losing the popular vote by more than 2016 and only just getting past 270 this time. Now I need a stiff drink
This is my exact fear – and my forecast – although I think in that scenario, it ends up 269-269?
The one prediction I want to make is that I think Biden wins Georgia in almost all circumstances.
Well if that happens he is in the White House.
What makes you so confident?
(P.S. I share others' scepticism about a PA Biden win)
I think the failed (but slim) Stacey Abrams election attempt will drive further turnout in favour of the Dems.
Look at Fulton County - Atlanta - 344,876 votes so far. That’s 80% of the 2016 turnout already.
There is a plausible scenario whereby Biden underperforms in the rustbelt but arrives in the White House via the sunbelt.
I see Ladbrokes now have Trump favourite to win FL at 8/11
And as Florida goes, so goes the presidency, generally. But stop bothering people with facts.
That is simply not true, but then facts never really seem to impinge much on your world view. Biden could easily win whilst losing Florida
Sorry but this is balls, Florida has picked the winner since 1996, and almost every time before that. After Ohio it is the state that best represents the diversity, both economically and demographically, of the whole US. If your message has failed in Florida, it's really quite unlikely it will work in the other states you need to flip.
Ohio is going to be safe R, and Florida may not be far behind.
The point under discussion is that because Florida has generally voted for the winner Biden can't win if he loses Florida. That's absolute bollox.
Yes, Florida is far from essential for Biden which is just as well because I suspect he will lose it. In the past it has been pivotal but that honour belongs to Pennsylvania now. Difficult for either to win without PA although more so Trump than Biden. Nate S did a good piece on this:
My guess is that Biden will win with PA plus one or two from Ariz/Geo/Iowa/NC. That should do it because I just don't see Trump getting close in any of the States leaning more Biden's way than PA - i.e. Nev/Mic/Minn/Wisc etc. They are all looking pretty solid.
It therefore no longer looks to me a question of whether Biden wins, but by how much. I'm reckoning a modest distance, but it could easily stretch because Ariz/Geo etc are all on a knife edge.
And then there's always Texas!
Any very lightly polled red states that could deliver an unexpected shock? After all some of the gaps in the non battleground states on the Trump side are not far removed from some of the gaps that Biden has in battleground states (which have to be considered "battleground" by virtue of the fact that Trump needs them!)
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
If you actually knew anything about economics, you'd have some inkling that ignoring it is every bit as damaging as overreacting.
The least damage to the economy is whatever reduces R to just below 1.
ABC News, rated A+ by 538, gives Biden a 17 point lead in Wisconsin, and the previous poll in the state was an A- rated poll by Fox News giving him a 5 point lead, both highly rated pollsters according to the website.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
Ah - it did work to reduce the virus level. Back in March/April/May. It was rather a big deal.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
Yes, but, I`m not sure that works either. While virus prevalence is high somewhere in the world those nations which appear to have eradicated it will become reinfected at some point. It`s just a matter of time.
Any attempt to use the last 3-5 days to prove anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete will lead to the following. The offender being lockdown down in a room with Piers Corbyn, Piers Morgan, Julian Assange and a Lawyer in his wife's kimono. For 2 weeks. With only the worst bits of ConservativeHome for entertainment.
UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K population
Any attempt to use the last 3-5 days to prove anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete will lead to the following. The offender being lockdown down in a room with Piers Corbyn, Piers Morgan, Julian Assange and a Lawyer in his wife's kimono. For 2 weeks. With only the worst bits of ConservativeHome for entertainment.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
Yes, but, I`m not sure that works either. While virus prevalence is high somewhere in the world those nations which appear to have eradicated it will become reinfected at some point. It`s just a matter of time.
For all their success, i really don't understand where New Zealand goes in future. Even with a vaccine, any opening up will be accepting a level of death which might be politically difficult.
I'm reminded of @edmundintokyo arguing that Trump isn't capable of being nearly as devious as people (i.e. me) worry he might be.
I was worried that they would rush a vaccine announcement by now, to benefit from a Covid-vanquished bounce, but instead all they have is to say it's all over at the same time as it rockets in one of the key swing states.
Any attempt to use the last 3-5 days to prove anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete will lead to the following. The offender being lockdown down in a room with Piers Corbyn, Piers Morgan, Julian Assange and a Lawyer in his wife's kimono. For 2 weeks. With only the worst bits of ConservativeHome for entertainment.
The rate of increase in the number of cases does now seem to be showing signs of slowing a little, but the numbers of hospital admissions, hospital patients and deaths are rising rapidly. This is consistent with the restrictions on socialising bringing R close to 1 (averaged across the country) but the infection spreading to older segments of the population.
One thing I have noticed is how quiet the Team Trump online rampers from 2016 have been. Now quite a few have got the ban hammer, but I am fairly sure at this point in 2016, the likes of PJW were busy pumping out regular videos on how terrible Clinton was. This time, despite all the Hunter Biden stuff, all seems very quiet.
One thing I have noticed is how quiet the Team Trump online rampers from 2016 have been. Now quite a few have got the ban hammer, but I am fairly sure at this point in 2016, the likes of PJW were busy pumping out regular videos on how terrible Clinton was. This time, despite all the Hunter Biden stuff, all seems very quiet.
Twitter have done a sterling shadowbanning effort on behalf of Team Biden.
Any attempt to use the last 3-5 days to prove anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete will lead to the following. The offender being lockdown down in a room with Piers Corbyn, Piers Morgan, Julian Assange and a Lawyer in his wife's kimono. For 2 weeks. With only the worst bits of ConservativeHome for entertainment.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
Yes, but, I`m not sure that works either. While virus prevalence is high somewhere in the world those nations which appear to have eradicated it will become reinfected at some point. It`s just a matter of time.
For all their success, i really don't understand where New Zealand goes in future. Even with a vaccine, any opening up will be accepting a level of death which might be politically difficult.
Yes, they have achieved what seemed impossible - they are an already remote island which is now even more remote.
When you think about it, so much hinges on a vaccine, discovered and successfully administered to the majority of humans on the planet. I can`t help thinking that this supposed silver bullet will not pan out as hoped. It won`t just be a case of one injection (or two?) initially. It will have to be annual I suspect. What an undertaking!
One thing I have noticed is how quiet the Team Trump online rampers from 2016 have been. Now quite a few have got the ban hammer, but I am fairly sure at this point in 2016, the likes of PJW were busy pumping out regular videos on how terrible Clinton was. This time, despite all the Hunter Biden stuff, all seems very quiet.
On the other hand I think the high-brow Trump apologists are more vocal than they were before. Perhaps that can be taken as a sign that the shy-Trump voter effect is smaller.
Any attempt to use the last 3-5 days to prove anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete will lead to the following. The offender being lockdown down in a room with Piers Corbyn, Piers Morgan, Julian Assange and a Lawyer in his wife's kimono. For 2 weeks. With only the worst bits of ConservativeHome for entertainment.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
If you actually knew anything about economics, you'd have some inkling that ignoring it is every bit as damaging as overreacting.
The least damage to the economy is whatever reduces R to just below 1.
Really?
see here's the thing
If they re-elect Donald Trump next week the US is looking a possible GDP plus this year. That's GDP plus. Numbers out Thursday show the 3Q rebound will leave America about 4% shy of pre-covid levels according to many economists. Fourth quarter so far OK.
The UK? 10% down and counting with a gargantuan debt mountain.
Europe? double dip recession coming, surely.
But hey, obsess about 'R' as economic and social collapse sweep the continent, by all means.
Any very lightly polled red states that could deliver an unexpected shock? After all some of the gaps in the non battleground states on the Trump side are not far removed from some of the gaps that Biden has in battleground states (which have to be considered "battleground" by virtue of the fact that Trump needs them!)
The only one that springs to mind off the top of my head is,,,,,Alaska! Not that Biden's winning there but i think 538 has his chances around 1 in 6 so ,,,, Other than that cant think of any red states that are not polled much that arent Trump certain wins
Hmmm.... Like this: "The percentage of care homes with an outbreak increased progressively with care home size, from 3.7% of care homes with <20 registered places to 90.2% of care homes with 90+ registered places • Almost all outbreaks (336/348) occurred in care homes for older people. There were 1,915 COVID-related deaths (i.e. with any mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate) in this period, occurring in 321 care homes. • COVID-19 associated mortality was concentrated in its impact, more than half of COVID-19 deaths were in 64 homes and a quarter of all COVID-19 deaths were in just 25 homes."
90% of all care homes with more than 90 residents suffered a Covid outbreak and a quarter (almost 500) deaths were in just 25 homes. I mean, wow. These institutions should be named. </p>
The hospitals sending patients they knew had COVID to these homes should be named. Why are you surprised that bigger homes would be more likely to have >= 1 COVID death than a small one?
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
Yes, but, I`m not sure that works either. While virus prevalence is high somewhere in the world those nations which appear to have eradicated it will become reinfected at some point. It`s just a matter of time.
For all their success, i really don't understand where New Zealand goes in future. Even with a vaccine, any opening up will be accepting a level of death which might be politically difficult.
Depends on how good the vaccine is. If it stops you getting ill at all, then they've hit the jackpot, hardly any deaths and back to normal. If it only reduces the severity then they have a lot of people who will still get ill. Other places, such as the UK, will have a significant pool of those with some degree of immunity from having had the bug, and will be better off in that scenario.
Any attempt to use the last 3-5 days to prove anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete will lead to the following. The offender being lockdown down in a room with Piers Corbyn, Piers Morgan, Julian Assange and a Lawyer in his wife's kimono. For 2 weeks. With only the worst bits of ConservativeHome for entertainment.
Malmesbury - I've wondered this for a while, but do you know why the positivity rate shows a weekly pattern? Shouldn't it be much smoother?
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
If you actually knew anything about economics, you'd have some inkling that ignoring it is every bit as damaging as overreacting.
The least damage to the economy is whatever reduces R to just below 1.
Really?
see here's the thing
If they re-elect Donald Trump next week the US is looking a possible GDP plus this year. That's GDP plus. Numbers out Thursday show the 3Q rebound will leave America about 4% shy of pre-covid levels according to many economists. Fourth quarter so far OK.
The UK? 10% down and counting with a gargantuan debt mountain.
Europe? double dip recession coming, surely.
But hey, obsess about 'R' as economic and social collapse sweep the continent, by all means.
Yes, it's all over in America. No problems. Probably herd immunity. Or something. All gone away. No problem.
The rate of increase in the number of cases does now seem to be showing signs of slowing a little, but the numbers of hospital admissions, hospital patients and deaths are rising rapidly. This is consistent with the restrictions on socialising bringing R close to 1 (averaged across the country) but the infection spreading to older segments of the population.
Yes - combined with the lag of the infections worsening (and the spread to the older pop as you say).
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
To eradicate the virus requires that sort of lockdown but our one was enough to suppress it significantly. And I fear we might have to do it again soon (apart from schools).
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
Yes, but, I`m not sure that works either. While virus prevalence is high somewhere in the world those nations which appear to have eradicated it will become reinfected at some point. It`s just a matter of time.
For all their success, i really don't understand where New Zealand goes in future. Even with a vaccine, any opening up will be accepting a level of death which might be politically difficult.
Depends on how good the vaccine is. If it stops you getting ill at all, then they've hit the jackpot, hardly any deaths and back to normal. If it only reduces the severity then they have a lot of people who will still get ill. Other places, such as the UK, will have a significant pool of those with some degree of immunity from having had the bug, and will be better off in that scenario.
Say R is currently 1.3.
You have a vaccine which is 60% effective. Give it to the whole population.
R drops to 0.5 or so.
yes, I know that is a bit crude. But it is a fair guesstimate of the effect,.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
If you actually knew anything about economics, you'd have some inkling that ignoring it is every bit as damaging as overreacting.
The least damage to the economy is whatever reduces R to just below 1.
Really?
see here's the thing
If they re-elect Donald Trump next week the US is looking a possible GDP plus this year. That's GDP plus. Numbers out Thursday show the 3Q rebound will leave America about 4% shy of pre-covid levels according to many economists. Fourth quarter so far OK.
The UK? 10% down and counting with a gargantuan debt mountain.
Europe? double dip recession coming, surely.
But hey, obsess about 'R' as economic and social collapse sweep the continent, by all means.
1,451,462 have already voted 37% in the poll say they have voted
That means the Likely Voter screen says a total turnout of 4 million people
Wisconsin only has 3,583,804 voters total.
DANGER WILL ROBINSON DANGER.
Did you correct for the sample dates of the poll?
Corre ring for sample dates get you to almost exactly the entire voting roll at 3.51 million.
So still way beyond the bounds of credibility
This sounds like the effect that @isam bangs on and on about - the more politically engaged are more likely to respond to opinion polls - and here we see that they are more likely to have voted early too, unsurprisingly.
The question being, does that introduce a bias that will map onto the partisan split, and introduce a systematic error?
Edit: appreciate you going to the trouble of correcting for the sample dates.
No, it is the opposite way around. The sample does not have enough people who voted early.
The poll is basically assuming that everyone left in the state who has not yet voted is going to vote.
For me , although there are lots of permutations, who wins the election will come down to two states, FL and PA. If Biden wins FL he's going to win, end of. If he loses, though there may be some ups and downs , I think it will come down to PA. I still think the national polls are reflecting more that Biden is doing better in places like TX and GA but I don't expect him to win either or NC. AZ I think he will. I am pretty confident he will win MI and WI but I have real doubts about PA, yes he's about 5% up but the mood music there seems so volatile. So I think if it comes down to PA (which I think it will as i suspect Trump will win FL just), we may have to wait a while to know who's won and can expect some shenanigans over postal votes. So much against my personal wishes I really can see Trump falling over the line, despite losing the popular vote by more than 2016 and only just getting past 270 this time. Now I need a stiff drink
This is my exact fear – and my forecast – although I think in that scenario, it ends up 269-269?
The one prediction I want to make is that I think Biden wins Georgia in almost all circumstances.
Well if that happens he is in the White House.
What makes you so confident?
(P.S. I share others' scepticism about a PA Biden win)
I think the failed (but slim) Stacey Abrams election attempt will drive further turnout in favour of the Dems.
Look at Fulton County - Atlanta - 344,876 votes so far. That’s 80% of the 2016 turnout already.
There is a plausible scenario whereby Biden underperforms in the rustbelt but arrives in the White House via the sunbelt.
I see Ladbrokes now have Trump favourite to win FL at 8/11
And as Florida goes, so goes the presidency, generally. But stop bothering people with facts.
That is simply not true, but then facts never really seem to impinge much on your world view. Biden could easily win whilst losing Florida
Sorry but this is balls, Florida has picked the winner since 1996, and almost every time before that. After Ohio it is the state that best represents the diversity, both economically and demographically, of the whole US. If your message has failed in Florida, it's really quite unlikely it will work in the other states you need to flip.
Ohio is going to be safe R, and Florida may not be far behind.
The point under discussion is that because Florida has generally voted for the winner Biden can't win if he loses Florida. That's absolute bollox.
Yes, Florida is far from essential for Biden which is just as well because I suspect he will lose it. In the past it has been pivotal but that honour belongs to Pennsylvania now. Difficult for either to win without PA although more so Trump than Biden. Nate S did a good piece on this:
My guess is that Biden will win with PA plus one or two from Ariz/Geo/Iowa/NC. That should do it because I just don't see Trump getting close in any of the States leaning more Biden's way than PA - i.e. Nev/Mic/Minn/Wisc etc. They are all looking pretty solid.
It therefore no longer looks to me a question of whether Biden wins, but by how much. I'm reckoning a modest distance, but it could easily stretch because Ariz/Geo etc are all on a knife edge.
And then there's always Texas!
Peter,
Biden is 1.51 to win PA on Betfair and 1.51 to be next President. Yet many here, including your good self, think his chances of winning the Presidency are much shorter than that. So do you think that Biden has a much better chance of winning PA than Betfair suggests?
One thing I have noticed is how quiet the Team Trump online rampers from 2016 have been. Now quite a few have got the ban hammer, but I am fairly sure at this point in 2016, the likes of PJW were busy pumping out regular videos on how terrible Clinton was. This time, despite all the Hunter Biden stuff, all seems very quiet.
Farage is one of those people that looks more and more like a Spitting Image puppet the older he gets
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
If you actually knew anything about economics, you'd have some inkling that ignoring it is every bit as damaging as overreacting.
The least damage to the economy is whatever reduces R to just below 1.
Really?
see here's the thing
If they re-elect Donald Trump next week the US is looking a possible GDP plus this year. That's GDP plus. Numbers out Thursday show the 3Q rebound will leave America about 4% shy of pre-covid levels according to many economists. Fourth quarter so far OK.
The UK? 10% down and counting with a gargantuan debt mountain.
Europe? double dip recession coming, surely.
But hey, obsess about 'R' as economic and social collapse sweep the continent, by all means.
Yes, it's all over in America. No problems. Probably herd immunity. Or something. All gone away. No problem.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
Why is it necessary that on every subject of discussion these days most people (in general, not specifically on PB) seem to split into two opposing camps that loathe each other? It seems to have happened with lockdown vs anti-lockdown supporters in the same way as with Brexit and Trump.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
To eradicate the virus requires that sort of lockdown but our one was enough to suppress it significantly. And I fear we might have to do it again soon (apart from schools).
Looking at where we are today, then I reckon a 3 month lockdown would be needed to get back to the minima on the various graphs (infections, hospital admissions, deaths). That's if we start today. The longer we delay, the worse the starting point and the longer the lockdown needs to be. That's why others are getting on with it while Bozo is scratching his head.
Is it coming for us again? Wouldn't be the biggest surprise. We haven't changed. Nor has the virus. And there is little immunity out there.
Yes, obvious really, the question is are you as afraid of it as you were in March/April? I sense that people are but shouldn`t be. They should still be afraid, but not AS afraid. Risk aware, but not risk-averse. That`s the future, but we`re nowhere near this realisation yet.
Comments
And by a freak of timing that is almost spooky ...
https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1321480532975362048
Brexit is exactly like that. Both sides want a deal, both sides pretend that they are sanguine about no deal, neither are close to being so in reality, everyone knows a deal will be struck baring incompetence well beyond the norm, I just wish they would bloody well get on and do it. Its way past boring and its inconvenient not knowing what the new arrangements are.
If you have a care home with more than 90 residents they almost certainly have more than 100 staff going into that care home (more than a 1:1 ratio between staff and residents if 24/7 care). Even with the best testing in the world if there are over 100 staff going into the home then that's a lot of vectors for possibly getting the virus even with the best PPE in the world.
Plus of course the residents are vulnerable and need medical care - that means either doctors as well as nurses coming into the home (which could also be carriers) or residents going routinely to hospital and back home again - and even if they're tested that leaves the possibility of a false negative due to incubation.
Quite frankly for large care homes, unless the virus isn't spreading in the community I think viral outbreaks are frankly going to be something that happens and to be expected.
The question being, does that introduce a bias that will map onto the partisan split, and introduce a systematic error?
Edit: appreciate you going to the trouble of correcting for the sample dates.
Other Tory backbenchers and an ex minister still refusing to back Biden over his opposition to the internal markets bill
The Government should announce they're putting Bristol into Tier 2 as a response.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
Maybe he think the undecided (who seem to be few in number now) will imagine the disease has gone and will praise the Donald , but it sounds the desperate floundering of a man who knows he's almost toast. Makes you wonder why Trump didnt replace Faucci earlier with Ivanka!
Never mind that most of the short and medium term damage to business is because they are left utterly uncertain about what they have to prepare for and before long it's going to make no material difference whether there is a deal or not. Made worse by the fact that many are hanging on to the belief that a "deal" will be largely similar to the status quo, when it reality the gap between deal and no deal in practical terms is likely to be far closer than the gap between status quo and deal. Perhaps if they agree some sort of six month "implementation period" but that itself will involve substantial climb downs on the UK side.
Yes, she was already banged up, but she got banged up for longer after Johnson let go with his loose tongue.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-toast-if-he-loses-pennsylvania/
My guess is that Biden will win with PA plus one or two from Ariz/Geo/Iowa/NC. That should do it because I just don't see Trump getting close in any of the States leaning more Biden's way than PA - i.e. Nev/Mic/Minn/Wisc etc. They are all looking pretty solid.
It therefore no longer looks to me a question of whether Biden wins, but by how much. I'm reckoning a modest distance, but it could easily stretch because Ariz/Geo etc are all on a knife edge.
And then there's always Texas!
One thing that is certain is that Tier 2 has not stemmed the tide.
The least damage to the economy is whatever reduces R to just below 1.
https://twitter.com/Faith_Salie/status/1320153542133489665
Reckons it's the most important vote she's ever cast. She's not wrong.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/wisconsin/
Back in March/April/May.
It was rather a big deal.
Today -
Yes, backfilling continues......
Any attempt to use the last 3-5 days to prove anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete will lead to the following. The offender being lockdown down in a room with Piers Corbyn, Piers Morgan, Julian Assange and a Lawyer in his wife's kimono. For 2 weeks. With only the worst bits of ConservativeHome for entertainment.
Any attempt to use the last 3-5 days to prove anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete will lead to the following. The offender being lockdown down in a room with Piers Corbyn, Piers Morgan, Julian Assange and a Lawyer in his wife's kimono. For 2 weeks. With only the worst bits of ConservativeHome for entertainment.
I was worried that they would rush a vaccine announcement by now, to benefit from a Covid-vanquished bounce, but instead all they have is to say it's all over at the same time as it rockets in one of the key swing states.
Any attempt to use the last 3-5 days to prove anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete will lead to the following. The offender being lockdown down in a room with Piers Corbyn, Piers Morgan, Julian Assange and a Lawyer in his wife's kimono. For 2 weeks. With only the worst bits of ConservativeHome for entertainment.
Any attempt to use the last 3-5 days to prove anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete will lead to the following. The offender being lockdown down in a room with Piers Corbyn, Piers Morgan, Julian Assange and a Lawyer in his wife's kimono. For 2 weeks. With only the worst bits of ConservativeHome for entertainment.
When you think about it, so much hinges on a vaccine, discovered and successfully administered to the majority of humans on the planet. I can`t help thinking that this supposed silver bullet will not pan out as hoped. It won`t just be a case of one injection (or two?) initially. It will have to be annual I suspect. What an undertaking!
Trump 48%
Biden 47%
Any attempt to use the last 3-5 days to prove anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete will lead to the following. The offender being lockdown down in a room with Piers Corbyn, Piers Morgan, Julian Assange and a Lawyer in his wife's kimono. For 2 weeks. With only the worst bits of ConservativeHome for entertainment.
see here's the thing
If they re-elect Donald Trump next week the US is looking a possible GDP plus this year. That's GDP plus. Numbers out Thursday show the 3Q rebound will leave America about 4% shy of pre-covid levels according to many economists. Fourth quarter so far OK.
The UK? 10% down and counting with a gargantuan debt mountain.
Europe? double dip recession coming, surely.
But hey, obsess about 'R' as economic and social collapse sweep the continent, by all means.
And then there's always Texas!
Any very lightly polled red states that could deliver an unexpected shock? After all some of the gaps in the non battleground states on the Trump side are not far removed from some of the gaps that Biden has in battleground states (which have to be considered "battleground" by virtue of the fact that Trump needs them!)
The only one that springs to mind off the top of my head is,,,,,Alaska! Not that Biden's winning there but i think 538 has his chances around 1 in 6 so ,,,, Other than that cant think of any red states that are not polled much that arent Trump certain wins
Why are you surprised that bigger homes would be more likely to have >= 1 COVID death than a small one?
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1321435418987024384
Probably herd immunity. Or something.
All gone away. No problem.
You have a vaccine which is 60% effective. Give it to the whole population.
R drops to 0.5 or so.
yes, I know that is a bit crude. But it is a fair guesstimate of the effect,.
Sources please, a lot of that seems dubious.
The poll is basically assuming that everyone left in the state who has not yet voted is going to vote.
Biden is 1.51 to win PA on Betfair and 1.51 to be next President. Yet many here, including your good self, think his chances of winning the Presidency are much shorter than that. So do you think that Biden has a much better chance of winning PA than Betfair suggests?