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YouGov finds that if given the chance Britain would overwhelmingly vote Trump out – politicalbetting

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  • Nigelb said:

    On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

    Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
    Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

    And yet. Here we are

    This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

    By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

    The cure is killing the patient.

    If you actually knew anything about economics, you'd have some inkling that ignoring it is every bit as damaging as overreacting.

    The least damage to the economy is whatever reduces R to just below 1.
    Really?

    see here's the thing

    If they re-elect Donald Trump next week the US is looking a possible GDP plus this year. That's GDP plus. Numbers out Thursday show the 3Q rebound will leave America about 4% shy of pre-covid levels according to many economists. Fourth quarter so far OK.

    The UK? 10% down and counting with a gargantuan debt mountain.

    Europe? double dip recession coming, surely.

    But hey, obsess about 'R' as economic and social collapse sweep the continent, by all means.
    Yes, it's all over in America. No problems.
    Probably herd immunity. Or something.
    All gone away. No problem.
    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1321466255124033537
    Christ alive, can you not get a test in some states unless you are literally at death door with COVID symptons?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    Andy_JS said:

    Why is it necessary that on every subject of discussion these days most people (in general, not specifically on PB) seem to split into two opposing camps that loathe each other? It seems to have happened with lockdown vs anti-lockdown supporters in the same way as with Brexit and Trump.

    It's the same split with the same people.

    Lockdown is sensible and inevitable.

    BoZo and the Brexiteers will deny the reality, until it's waayyyy too late.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Here we go. If Germany is doing this, and France, so will we

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1321494842904633346?s=20


    What's the betting these last right through to 2021? Maybe Spring 2021?

    Horrific
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

    Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
    Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

    And yet. Here we are

    This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

    By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

    The cure is killing the patient.

    If you actually knew anything about economics, you'd have some inkling that ignoring it is every bit as damaging as overreacting.

    The least damage to the economy is whatever reduces R to just below 1.
    Really?

    see here's the thing

    If they re-elect Donald Trump next week the US is looking a possible GDP plus this year. That's GDP plus. Numbers out Thursday show the 3Q rebound will leave America about 4% shy of pre-covid levels according to many economists. Fourth quarter so far OK.

    The UK? 10% down and counting with a gargantuan debt mountain.

    Europe? double dip recession coming, surely.

    But hey, obsess about 'R' as economic and social collapse sweep the continent, by all means.
    "If"..."possible"..."according to"..."surely"

    Sources please, a lot of that seems dubious.
    I think the "many economists" who he likes doesn't include all of those who believe that abandoning restrictions prior to the virus being brought under control would make things economically worse:

    https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/policy-for-the-covid-19-crisis/

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Rasmussen has Trump with a 1% lead today.

    Trump 48%
    Biden 47%

    Didn't someone predict this yesterday based on Rasmussen's peculiar weighting system?
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    Andy_JS said:

    Why is it necessary that on every subject of discussion these days most people (in general, not specifically on PB) seem to split into two opposing camps that loathe each other? It seems to have happened with lockdown vs anti-lockdown supporters in the same way as with Brexit and Trump.

    Because people only consume partisan (social) media.
    And that happens because outrage drives traffic drives revenue.

    Then, drunk on their own certainty and already in a state of combative arousal, they meet people from the other tribe, similarly outraged and certain.
  • UK cases summary

    Any attempt to use the last 3-5 days to prove anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete will lead to the following. The offender being lockdown down in a room with Piers Corbyn, Piers Morgan, Julian Assange and a Lawyer in his wife's kimono. For 2 weeks. With only the worst bits of ConservativeHome for entertainment.

    image
    image
    image
    image

    Malmesbury - I've wondered this for a while, but do you know why the positivity rate shows a weekly pattern? Shouldn't it be much smoother?
    That's a very good question. If anything, you might expect the proportion of positive cases to increase, rather than decrease, at the weekend with fewer specimens being taken but more likely to be of infected people. It's not at all obvious to me why the positivity rate should decrease at the weekend!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    So its basically like Tier 3* here?

    * depends which Tier 3 obvs.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    OllyT said:

    FPT

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    Mal557 said:

    For me , although there are lots of permutations, who wins the election will come down to two states, FL and PA. If Biden wins FL he's going to win, end of. If he loses, though there may be some ups and downs , I think it will come down to PA.
    I still think the national polls are reflecting more that Biden is doing better in places like TX and GA but I don't expect him to win either or NC. AZ I think he will. I am pretty confident he will win MI and WI but I have real doubts about PA, yes he's about 5% up but the mood music there seems so volatile.
    So I think if it comes down to PA (which I think it will as i suspect Trump will win FL just), we may have to wait a while to know who's won and can expect some shenanigans over postal votes. So much against my personal wishes I really can see Trump falling over the line, despite losing the popular vote by more than 2016 and only just getting past 270 this time.
    Now I need a stiff drink

    This is my exact fear – and my forecast – although I think in that scenario, it ends up 269-269?
    The one prediction I want to make is that I think Biden wins Georgia in almost all circumstances.
    Well if that happens he is in the White House.

    What makes you so confident?

    (P.S. I share others' scepticism about a PA Biden win)

    I think the failed (but slim) Stacey Abrams election attempt will drive further turnout in favour of the Dems.

    Look at Fulton County - Atlanta - 344,876 votes so far. That’s 80% of the 2016 turnout already.
    There is a plausible scenario whereby Biden underperforms in the rustbelt but arrives in the White House via the sunbelt.
    I see Ladbrokes now have Trump favourite to win FL at 8/11
    And as Florida goes, so goes the presidency, generally. But stop bothering people with facts.
    That is simply not true, but then facts never really seem to impinge much on your world view. Biden could easily win whilst losing Florida
    Sorry but this is balls, Florida has picked the winner since 1996, and almost every time before that. After Ohio it is the state that best represents the diversity, both economically and demographically, of the whole US. If your message has failed in Florida, it's really quite unlikely it will work in the other states you need to flip.

    Ohio is going to be safe R, and Florida may not be far behind.
    The point under discussion is that because Florida has generally voted for the winner Biden can't win if he loses Florida. That's absolute bollox.
    Yes, Florida is far from essential for Biden which is just as well because I suspect he will lose it. In the past it has been pivotal but that honour belongs to Pennsylvania now. Difficult for either to win without PA although more so Trump than Biden. Nate S did a good piece on this:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-toast-if-he-loses-pennsylvania/

    My guess is that Biden will win with PA plus one or two from Ariz/Geo/Iowa/NC. That should do it because I just don't see Trump getting close in any of the States leaning more Biden's way than PA - i.e. Nev/Mic/Minn/Wisc etc. They are all looking pretty solid.

    It therefore no longer looks to me a question of whether Biden wins, but by how much. I'm reckoning a modest distance, but it could easily stretch because Ariz/Geo etc are all on a knife edge.

    And then there's always Texas!
    Yes - Texas is the one which if it flips gives the big spread betting bucks. I'm hopeful but keeping a lid on it because I don't want to find myself in a couple of weeks with Trump gone + a very decent financial outcome yet feeling disappointed.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    There does not appear to be a correlation between Dem counties of Georgia and higher turnout so far.




  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

    Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
    Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

    And yet. Here we are

    This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

    By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

    The cure is killing the patient.

    The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
    The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
    It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
    No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    alex_ said:

    OllyT said:

    FPT

    OllyT said:

    MrEd said:

    Mal557 said:

    For me , although there are lots of permutations, who wins the election will come down to two states, FL and PA. If Biden wins FL he's going to win, end of. If he loses, though there may be some ups and downs , I think it will come down to PA.
    I still think the national polls are reflecting more that Biden is doing better in places like TX and GA but I don't expect him to win either or NC. AZ I think he will. I am pretty confident he will win MI and WI but I have real doubts about PA, yes he's about 5% up but the mood music there seems so volatile.
    So I think if it comes down to PA (which I think it will as i suspect Trump will win FL just), we may have to wait a while to know who's won and can expect some shenanigans over postal votes. So much against my personal wishes I really can see Trump falling over the line, despite losing the popular vote by more than 2016 and only just getting past 270 this time.
    Now I need a stiff drink

    This is my exact fear – and my forecast – although I think in that scenario, it ends up 269-269?
    The one prediction I want to make is that I think Biden wins Georgia in almost all circumstances.
    Well if that happens he is in the White House.

    What makes you so confident?

    (P.S. I share others' scepticism about a PA Biden win)

    I think the failed (but slim) Stacey Abrams election attempt will drive further turnout in favour of the Dems.

    Look at Fulton County - Atlanta - 344,876 votes so far. That’s 80% of the 2016 turnout already.
    There is a plausible scenario whereby Biden underperforms in the rustbelt but arrives in the White House via the sunbelt.
    I see Ladbrokes now have Trump favourite to win FL at 8/11
    And as Florida goes, so goes the presidency, generally. But stop bothering people with facts.
    That is simply not true, but then facts never really seem to impinge much on your world view. Biden could easily win whilst losing Florida
    Sorry but this is balls, Florida has picked the winner since 1996, and almost every time before that. After Ohio it is the state that best represents the diversity, both economically and demographically, of the whole US. If your message has failed in Florida, it's really quite unlikely it will work in the other states you need to flip.

    Ohio is going to be safe R, and Florida may not be far behind.
    The point under discussion is that because Florida has generally voted for the winner Biden can't win if he loses Florida. That's absolute bollox.
    Yes, Florida is far from essential for Biden which is just as well because I suspect he will lose it. In the past it has been pivotal but that honour belongs to Pennsylvania now. Difficult for either to win without PA although more so Trump than Biden. Nate S did a good piece on this:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-toast-if-he-loses-pennsylvania/

    My guess is that Biden will win with PA plus one or two from Ariz/Geo/Iowa/NC. That should do it because I just don't see Trump getting close in any of the States leaning more Biden's way than PA - i.e. Nev/Mic/Minn/Wisc etc. They are all looking pretty solid.

    It therefore no longer looks to me a question of whether Biden wins, but by how much. I'm reckoning a modest distance, but it could easily stretch because Ariz/Geo etc are all on a knife edge.

    And then there's always Texas!
    Any very lightly polled red states that could deliver an unexpected shock? After all some of the gaps in the non battleground states on the Trump side are not far removed from some of the gaps that Biden has in battleground states (which have to be considered "battleground" by virtue of the fact that Trump needs them!)
    SOUTH Carolina?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020
    LadyG said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

    Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
    Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

    And yet. Here we are

    This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

    By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

    The cure is killing the patient.

    The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
    The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
    It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
    No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
    The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    The insane 17 point Wisconsin poll

    1,451,462 have already voted
    37% in the poll say they have voted

    That means the Likely Voter screen says a total turnout of 4 million people

    Wisconsin only has 3,583,804 voters total.

    DANGER WILL ROBINSON DANGER.

    Did you correct for the sample dates of the poll?
    Corre ring for sample dates get you to almost exactly the entire voting roll at 3.51 million.

    So still way beyond the bounds of credibility
    This sounds like the effect that @isam bangs on and on about - the more politically engaged are more likely to respond to opinion polls - and here we see that they are more likely to have voted early too, unsurprisingly.

    The question being, does that introduce a bias that will map onto the partisan split, and introduce a systematic error?

    Edit: appreciate you going to the trouble of correcting for the sample dates.
    No, it is the opposite way around. The sample does not have enough people who voted early.

    The poll is basically assuming that everyone left in the state who has not yet voted is going to vote.
    Oh. Yes. How embarrassing.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036

    Scott_xP said:
    So its basically like Tier 3* here?

    * depends which Tier 3 obvs.
    Tier three-and-a-half, as eateries are closing too.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Nigelb said:
    Arise, Liam Fox.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    "It's just a joke..."

    Michigan Gov. Whitmer: Every time Trump talks about me 'I get more death threats'
    https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/523170-michigan-governor-whitmer-says-every-time-trump-talks-about-her-i-get
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

    Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
    Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

    And yet. Here we are

    This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

    By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

    The cure is killing the patient.

    If you actually knew anything about economics, you'd have some inkling that ignoring it is every bit as damaging as overreacting.

    The least damage to the economy is whatever reduces R to just below 1.
    I wonder where Lockdown but with schools open would take R to?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020
    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    Imagine somebody a few years ago saying that the police were opening saying to the public we are going to raid your home if you have more than 6 people round for a meal, and now if you say something that somebody else judges to be hate speech.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020

    Scott_xP said:
    So its basically like Tier 3* here?

    * depends which Tier 3 obvs.
    Tier three-and-a-half, as eateries are closing too.
    I thought it was going to be similar to here in that they can open for takeaways, no?
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    Scott_xP said:
    So its basically like Tier 3* here?

    * depends which Tier 3 obvs.
    Tier three-and-a-half, as eateries are closing too.
    I thought it was going to be similar to here in that they can open for takeaways, no?
    In normal Tier 3 restaurants and pubs that serve proper meals can stay open, I think?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    This will win the election for Trump, I reckon California is now in play for Donald Trump.

    White House Declares Pandemic Over As It Cites Renowned Scientist Ivanka Trump

    The president's daughter, of course, has no training or background as a scientific expert.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/white-house-declares-pandemic-over-as-it-cites-renowned-scientist-ivanka-trump_uk_5f991da9c5b61d63241dc2e0

    I'm reminded of @edmundintokyo arguing that Trump isn't capable of being nearly as devious as people (i.e. me) worry he might be.

    I was worried that they would rush a vaccine announcement by now, to benefit from a Covid-vanquished bounce, but instead all they have is to say it's all over at the same time as it rockets in one of the key swing states.
    Trump is dumb. That's way he communicates so brilliantly to his base.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    Imagine somebody a few years ago saying that the police were opening saying to the public we are going to raid your home if you have more than 6 people round for a meal, and now if you say something that somebody else judges to be hate speech.
    It reveals the power of a small minority of people who, with the help of social media, package their delusions and psychosis and inflict the whole countries structures with it.
  • Scott_xP said:
    So its basically like Tier 3* here?

    * depends which Tier 3 obvs.
    Bars and restaurants still very much open in the version of tier 3 which I reside in.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    LadyG said:

    Here we go. If Germany is doing this, and France, so will we

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1321494842904633346?s=20


    What's the betting these last right through to 2021? Maybe Spring 2021?

    Horrific

    Just about to go into Tier 3 here. No one I have spoken to expects us to be allowed out of it until the spring. Apart from anything no minister can articulate what the strategy is or criteria for leaving it other than blather about protecting the NHS. If that is the goal then it is Tier 3 until the winter is over. There is always going to be pressure on beds from now until, say, March.
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue?
    If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020
    More fun news.....

    He said: 'We need a vaccine that can be used multiple times, a recombinant vaccine will not suit.

    'Once injected with an adenoviral vector-based vaccine, we won't be able to repeat it because the immunity against the adenoviral carrier will keep interfering.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8889269/Russian-professor-69-infected-Covid-19-twice-says-herd-immunity-impossible.html
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Monmouth University, rated A+ on 538, give Biden the lead in Georgia.

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1321498558084907009?s=20
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Pulpstar said:

    One thing I have noticed is how quiet the Team Trump online rampers from 2016 have been. Now quite a few have got the ban hammer, but I am fairly sure at this point in 2016, the likes of PJW were busy pumping out regular videos on how terrible Clinton was. This time, despite all the Hunter Biden stuff, all seems very quiet.
    Twitter have done a sterling shadowbanning effort on behalf of Team Biden.
    Yep. And FB are trying a bit harder now too. Generally less filth perhaps. Not that I'd know for sure since I don't hang out in the relevant places.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    edited October 2020
    Deleted
  • LadyG said:

    Scott_xP said:
    So its basically like Tier 3* here?

    * depends which Tier 3 obvs.
    Tier three-and-a-half, as eateries are closing too.
    I thought it was going to be similar to here in that they can open for takeaways, no?
    In normal Tier 3 restaurants and pubs that serve proper meals can stay open, I think?
    Fair point. You have to be in Tier 3.5 :-)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425
    edited October 2020
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

    Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
    Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

    And yet. Here we are

    This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

    By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

    The cure is killing the patient.

    The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
    The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
    It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
    This is a weird thing to say when we've spent more than £12bn on it, but we aren't really trying.

    There are lots (and lots) of PCR tests, but there's not much else.

    There's no other tests for different situations that suit different tests. People are asked to self-isolate, but we do very little to help them do this, or even to measure whether they are doing so - we can only guess at how ineffective it is.

    In the context of spending hundreds of billions of pounds on lockdown you might think that a bit more effort might have been put into test, trace and isolate.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

    Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
    Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

    And yet. Here we are

    This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

    By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

    The cure is killing the patient.

    If you actually knew anything about economics, you'd have some inkling that ignoring it is every bit as damaging as overreacting.

    The least damage to the economy is whatever reduces R to just below 1.
    Really?

    see here's the thing

    If they re-elect Donald Trump next week the US is looking a possible GDP plus this year. That's GDP plus. Numbers out Thursday show the 3Q rebound will leave America about 4% shy of pre-covid levels according to many economists. Fourth quarter so far OK.

    The UK? 10% down and counting with a gargantuan debt mountain.

    Europe? double dip recession coming, surely.

    But hey, obsess about 'R' as economic and social collapse sweep the continent, by all means.
    "If"..."possible"..."according to"..."surely"

    Sources please, a lot of that seems dubious.
    I think the "many economists" who he likes doesn't include all of those who believe that abandoning restrictions prior to the virus being brought under control would make things economically worse:

    https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/policy-for-the-covid-19-crisis/

    Well lets see shall we Andy

    The bloomberg machine I have in front of money shows Thursday's US GDP growth is forecast to climb 32% on an annualised basis in the third quarter. After a fall of just under 32% in Q2.

    And that's a survey of about about oooh, I don;t know, about a million f8cking economists. As it always is.

    The forecast won;t completely replace the lost GDP entirely. A quick calculation by Bloomberg's own economists shows it will leave the US around 4% shy.

    Of course, the fourth quarter numbers aren;t in yet, and won;t be for a while. But there is no evidence the US is not still growing. Quite the reverse.

    FFS
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue?
    If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
    Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.

    Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it

    "the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53580326
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Nigelb said:

    The Trump administration summed up in a single reply.

    https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1321435418987024384

    Again - totally busted.

    Language is such a tell.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    Monmouth University, rated A+ on 538, give Biden the lead in Georgia.

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1321498558084907009?s=20

    A very good poll for Joe, factoring in the pollster. Let's hope this reflects on the day, though like Texas I'm still of the view that Biden is going to be close here as well but not quite flip them so the 'Trump sneaks home' scenario is still there, None the less clearly Trumps popularity is dipping in some of these red states.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366

    LadyG said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

    Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
    Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

    And yet. Here we are

    This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

    By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

    The cure is killing the patient.

    The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
    The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
    It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
    No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
    The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
    In much of Australia, the housing is far, far more spacious. There are some pokey flats in bits of Sydney....

    But much of it isn't. I recall one entertaining example - an estate agent in the suburbs of Melbourne had put a full sized snooker table in the corner of *one* of the living rooms of a middle class house. To make the room feel less empty....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020
    LadyG said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue?
    If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
    Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.

    Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it

    "the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53580326
    This has been brought by the same dickhead who went on a massive rant about where are all the BAME people in prominent roles in Scottish society, when the demographics are Scotland are so white that they it is basically all inline with things.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,390

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

    Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
    Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

    And yet. Here we are

    This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

    By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

    The cure is killing the patient.

    The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
    To eradicate the virus requires that sort of lockdown but our one was enough to suppress it significantly. And I fear we might have to do it again soon (apart from schools).
    Looking at where we are today, then I reckon a 3 month lockdown would be needed to get back to the minima on the various graphs (infections, hospital admissions, deaths). That's if we start today. The longer we delay, the worse the starting point and the longer the lockdown needs to be. That's why others are getting on with it while Bozo is scratching his head.
    But the House of Commons is in recess, and it's half term, so I assume Bozo is on annual leave - whereabouts, who knows. Don't expect anything from him this week, despite the rapidly-worsening Covid data. The man's entitled to a break, after all.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    This guy is a crackpot
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    LadyG said:

    Here we go. If Germany is doing this, and France, so will we

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1321494842904633346?s=20


    What's the betting these last right through to 2021? Maybe Spring 2021?

    Horrific

    Just about to go into Tier 3 here. No one I have spoken to expects us to be allowed out of it until the spring. Apart from anything no minister can articulate what the strategy is or criteria for leaving it other than blather about protecting the NHS. If that is the goal then it is Tier 3 until the winter is over. There is always going to be pressure on beds from now until, say, March.
    The escape strategy is the vaccine
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    LadyG said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue?
    If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
    Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.

    Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it

    "the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53580326
    Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit?
    If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.

    To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    Rasmussen has Trump with a 1% lead today.

    Trump 48%
    Biden 47%

    Are they a genuine polling company?
    More a trolling company.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798

    On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

    Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
    Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

    And yet. Here we are

    This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

    By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

    The cure is killing the patient.

    If you actually knew anything about economics, you'd have some inkling that ignoring it is every bit as damaging as overreacting.

    The least damage to the economy is whatever reduces R to just below 1.
    Really?

    see here's the thing

    If they re-elect Donald Trump next week the US is looking a possible GDP plus this year. That's GDP plus. Numbers out Thursday show the 3Q rebound will leave America about 4% shy of pre-covid levels according to many economists. Fourth quarter so far OK.

    The UK? 10% down and counting with a gargantuan debt mountain.

    Europe? double dip recession coming, surely.

    But hey, obsess about 'R' as economic and social collapse sweep the continent, by all means.
    GDP plus as in positive GDP growth in 2020? Not going to happen in a million years. You're right that Q3 is looking like robust growth in the region of 35% on an annualised basis. But that is mostly due to the recovery during Q2 itself. Incremental growth during Q3 was a lot slower. Even with further growth in Q4 you are looking at about -3% for 2020 as a whole. A lot better than the UK or most of Europe, obviously, but not positive.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    LadyG said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue?
    If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
    Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.

    Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it

    "the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53580326
    C'mon, they just want to enshrine the most bonkers parts of identity politics into law. What could possibly go wrong?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    edited October 2020

    UK cases summary

    Any attempt to use the last 3-5 days to prove anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete will lead to the following. The offender being lockdown down in a room with Piers Corbyn, Piers Morgan, Julian Assange and a Lawyer in his wife's kimono. For 2 weeks. With only the worst bits of ConservativeHome for entertainment.

    image
    image
    image
    image

    Malmesbury - I've wondered this for a while, but do you know why the positivity rate shows a weekly pattern? Shouldn't it be much smoother?
    That's a very good question. If anything, you might expect the proportion of positive cases to increase, rather than decrease, at the weekend with fewer specimens being taken but more likely to be of infected people. It's not at all obvious to me why the positivity rate should decrease at the weekend!
    Less people getting tested in the hospitals/test and trace teams?

    Seems the highest values are Mondays. Hmmmmmm.....
  • malcolmg said:

    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    This guy is a crackpot
    America has a lot of things wrong with it but the one thing they got absolutely right was the first amendment.

    This idea is utterly insane and insidious.
  • LadyG said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

    Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
    Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

    And yet. Here we are

    This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

    By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

    The cure is killing the patient.

    The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
    The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
    It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
    No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
    The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
    In much of Australia, the housing is far, far more spacious. There are some pokey flats in bits of Sydney....

    But much of it isn't. I recall one entertaining example - an estate agent in the suburbs of Melbourne had put a full sized snooker table in the corner of *one* of the living rooms of a middle class house. To make the room feel less empty....
    There is still 5 million odd people in Melbourne and Sydney though. No an insignificant number, who still have to go to buy food etc. We aren't talking that they have managed it better, like say Germany, they have basically stopped it in its tracks. Without the security guards bonking the hotel guests in quarantine, they would hardly have seen any since the initial cluster of infections.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,390

    Nigelb said:
    Arise, Liam Fox.
    I think you inserted an 'i' in the first word by mistake.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Scott_xP said:
    For comparison, Germany averaging 12k cases/day vs UK on 23k cases/day. They're acting earlier and more decisively.

    Whether their measures are going to be sufficient is unclear though.

    One thing i haven't seen analysed is how much winter weather is going to increase transmission.
  • malcolmg said:

    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    This guy is a crackpot
    A crackpot with power....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    The insane 17 point Wisconsin poll

    1,451,462 have already voted
    37% in the poll say they have voted

    That means the Likely Voter screen says a total turnout of 4 million people

    Wisconsin only has 3,583,804 voters total.

    DANGER WILL ROBINSON DANGER.

    Did you correct for the sample dates of the poll?
    Corre ring for sample dates get you to almost exactly the entire voting roll at 3.51 million.

    So still way beyond the bounds of credibility
    This sounds like the effect that @isam bangs on and on about - the more politically engaged are more likely to respond to opinion polls - and here we see that they are more likely to have voted early too, unsurprisingly.

    The question being, does that introduce a bias that will map onto the partisan split, and introduce a systematic error?

    Edit: appreciate you going to the trouble of correcting for the sample dates.
    No, it is the opposite way around. The sample does not have enough people who voted early.

    The poll is basically assuming that everyone left in the state who has not yet voted is going to vote.
    Oh. Yes. How embarrassing.
    I made exactly the same mistake and had the same thought process as you.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    LadyG said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue?
    If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
    Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.

    Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it

    "the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53580326
    This has been brought by the same dickhead who went on a massive rant about where are all the BAME people in prominent roles in Scottish society, when the demographics are Scotland are so white that they it is basically all inline with things.
    Yes, here is the incredible rant by the SNP's "Justice" Minister, exuding hatred for "whites" with every syllable

    https://twitter.com/Ed_Husain/status/1277245024456105985?s=20
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Trafalgar are out with another poll

    I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    LadyG said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

    Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
    Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

    And yet. Here we are

    This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

    By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

    The cure is killing the patient.

    The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
    The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
    It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
    No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
    The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
    In much of Australia, the housing is far, far more spacious. There are some pokey flats in bits of Sydney....

    But much of it isn't. I recall one entertaining example - an estate agent in the suburbs of Melbourne had put a full sized snooker table in the corner of *one* of the living rooms of a middle class house. To make the room feel less empty....
    There is still 5 million odd people in Melbourne and Sydney though. No an insignificant number, who still have to go to buy food etc. We aren't talking that they have managed it better, like say Germany, they have basically stopped it in its tracks. Without the security guards bonking the hotel guests in quarantine, they would hardly have seen any since the initial cluster of infections.
    They had a 110 day total lockdown
  • On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

    Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
    Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

    And yet. Here we are

    This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

    By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

    The cure is killing the patient.

    If you actually knew anything about economics, you'd have some inkling that ignoring it is every bit as damaging as overreacting.

    The least damage to the economy is whatever reduces R to just below 1.
    Really?

    see here's the thing

    If they re-elect Donald Trump next week the US is looking a possible GDP plus this year. That's GDP plus. Numbers out Thursday show the 3Q rebound will leave America about 4% shy of pre-covid levels according to many economists. Fourth quarter so far OK.

    The UK? 10% down and counting with a gargantuan debt mountain.

    Europe? double dip recession coming, surely.

    But hey, obsess about 'R' as economic and social collapse sweep the continent, by all means.
    You are such a snowflake. We had a 3-day week and power cuts in the 1970s. I had to do my home work by candlelight.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    LadyG said:

    Here we go. If Germany is doing this, and France, so will we

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1321494842904633346?s=20


    What's the betting these last right through to 2021? Maybe Spring 2021?

    Horrific

    Just about to go into Tier 3 here. No one I have spoken to expects us to be allowed out of it until the spring. Apart from anything no minister can articulate what the strategy is or criteria for leaving it other than blather about protecting the NHS. If that is the goal then it is Tier 3 until the winter is over. There is always going to be pressure on beds from now until, say, March.
    The escape strategy is the vaccine
    Yep, nations are staking everything on it. Wealth, liberties the lot. Biggest bet in history. FFS pray it pays off.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue?
    If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
    Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.

    Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it

    "the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53580326
    Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit?
    If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.

    To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.
    So just because some clown does not like what you say or think in your own home , the police can come and burst your door down and arrest you for a hate crime. What kind of nutters are walking the streets.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue?
    If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
    Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.

    Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it

    "the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53580326
    This has been brought by the same dickhead who went on a massive rant about where are all the BAME people in prominent roles in Scottish society, when the demographics are Scotland are so white that they it is basically all inline with things.
    Yes, here is the incredible rant by the SNP's "Justice" Minister, exuding hatred for "whites" with every syllable

    https://twitter.com/Ed_Husain/status/1277245024456105985?s=20
    Its incredible, what are the chances of all those positions been filled by white people in a country that is 96% white...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Andy_JS said:

    Why is it necessary that on every subject of discussion these days most people (in general, not specifically on PB) seem to split into two opposing camps that loathe each other? It seems to have happened with lockdown vs anti-lockdown supporters in the same way as with Brexit and Trump.

    That's not the case in the flesh & blood world. Think it's a feature of online debate. Because when you argue intently and incessantly you naturally polarize.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    malcolmg said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue?
    If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
    Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.

    Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it

    "the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53580326
    Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit?
    If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.

    To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.
    So just because some clown does not like what you say or think in your own home , the police can come and burst your door down and arrest you for a hate crime. What kind of nutters are walking the streets.
    Sadly not just walking the streets. In parliament, no less, according to the LadyG clip below.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366

    LadyG said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

    Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
    Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

    And yet. Here we are

    This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

    By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

    The cure is killing the patient.

    The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
    The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
    It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
    No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
    The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
    In much of Australia, the housing is far, far more spacious. There are some pokey flats in bits of Sydney....

    But much of it isn't. I recall one entertaining example - an estate agent in the suburbs of Melbourne had put a full sized snooker table in the corner of *one* of the living rooms of a middle class house. To make the room feel less empty....
    There is still 5 million odd people in Melbourne and Sydney though. No an insignificant number, who still have to go to buy food etc. We aren't talking that they have managed it better, like say Germany, they have basically stopped it in its tracks. Without the security guards bonking the hotel guests in quarantine, they would hardly have seen any since the initial cluster of infections.
    They had a 110 day total lockdown
    Most of those 5 million have a lot more space. Public transport is also much less prevalent. So people live (on average) in what, by UK standards would be huge houses and travel everywhere in their own personal transport bubble...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Stocky said:

    LadyG said:

    Here we go. If Germany is doing this, and France, so will we

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1321494842904633346?s=20


    What's the betting these last right through to 2021? Maybe Spring 2021?

    Horrific

    Just about to go into Tier 3 here. No one I have spoken to expects us to be allowed out of it until the spring. Apart from anything no minister can articulate what the strategy is or criteria for leaving it other than blather about protecting the NHS. If that is the goal then it is Tier 3 until the winter is over. There is always going to be pressure on beds from now until, say, March.
    The escape strategy is the vaccine
    Yep, nations are staking everything on it. Wealth, liberties the lot. Biggest bet in history. FFS pray it pays off.
    Except one.

    “It’s a big mistake to sit down and say ‘we should just wait for a vaccine’. It will take much longer than we think. And in the end, we don’t know how good a vaccine it will be. It’s another reason to have a sustainable policy in place.”

    Anders Tegnell (Sweden)


    https://www.ft.com/content/a2b4c18c-a5e8-4edc-8047-ade4a82a548d
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Stocky said:

    LadyG said:

    Here we go. If Germany is doing this, and France, so will we

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1321494842904633346?s=20


    What's the betting these last right through to 2021? Maybe Spring 2021?

    Horrific

    Just about to go into Tier 3 here. No one I have spoken to expects us to be allowed out of it until the spring. Apart from anything no minister can articulate what the strategy is or criteria for leaving it other than blather about protecting the NHS. If that is the goal then it is Tier 3 until the winter is over. There is always going to be pressure on beds from now until, say, March.
    The escape strategy is the vaccine
    Yep, nations are staking everything on it. Wealth, liberties the lot. Biggest bet in history. FFS pray it pays off.
    I have a feeling it will be here quicker than reported in the last couple of days. The Bristol Uni study was the clincher.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue?
    If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
    Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.

    Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it

    "the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53580326
    Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit?
    If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.

    To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.
    Why don't we all have audiovisual bugs installed in every room of our houses then? They could livestream to the authorities 24 hours a day and make the detection of wrongthink so much easier...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    Sturgeon is increasingly resembling May in 2017, power is going to her head and now Salmond is also on her case too
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    edited October 2020
    malcolmg said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue?
    If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
    Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.

    Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it

    "the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53580326
    Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit?
    If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.

    To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.
    So just because some clown does not like what you say or think in your own home , the police can come and burst your door down and arrest you for a hate crime. What kind of nutters are walking the streets.
    Worth remembering that what one person might call hate speech, another calls "faith" - who gets to arbitrate?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited October 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    Reagan in 1980 and Dole in 1996 did 7% better than the average 6 days out and Bush Snr in 1992 did 4% better, the same error would see it likely neck and neck in the EC
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Nigelb said:
    Arise, Liam Fox.
    Can't they just try again in late January?
  • kinabalu said:

    On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

    Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
    Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

    And yet. Here we are

    This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

    By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

    The cure is killing the patient.

    If you actually knew anything about economics, you'd have some inkling that ignoring it is every bit as damaging as overreacting.

    The least damage to the economy is whatever reduces R to just below 1.
    I wonder where Lockdown but with schools open would take R to?
    Thinking back to August, I recall some of the boffins suggesting that; we could have pubs etc or schools, but we couldn't have both.

    As we have seen. Though we'll get a bit of an idea in a few weeks time, when the effect of half term feeds through the data.

    The trouble is that even R = 0.999 is probably insufficient now; all the systems for testing, tracing and treatment seem to be in the range where they've not collapsed, but they're not coping well.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Reagan in 1980 and Dole in 1996 did 7% better than the average 6 days out and Bush Snr in 1992 did 4% better, the same error would see it likely neck and neck in the EC
    Just as a matter of interest, how many votes had been cast early in those years?
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Reagan in 1980 and Dole in 1996 did 7% better than the average 6 days out and Bush Snr in 1992 did 4% better, the same error would see it likely neck and neck in the EC
    So what you're suggesting is that Biden is so far in the lead that even if there was an error that hasn't been seen all century it wouldn't be enough to put Trump in the lead in the EC?

    Biden is nailed on. Trump has lost this. I stand by snake eyes as Trump's odds of winning from here.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited October 2020
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    alex_ said:

    310 deaths

    So much for yesterday being a post-weekend blip.
    Is it coming for us again? Wouldn't be the biggest surprise. We haven't changed. Nor has the virus. And there is little immunity out there.
    Yes, obvious really, the question is are you as afraid of it as you were in March/April? I sense that people are but shouldn`t be. They should still be afraid, but not AS afraid. Risk aware, but not risk-averse. That`s the future, but we`re nowhere near this realisation yet.
    My fear is medium high - maybe 50% of what it was - and I think (as I would) that this is rational. Similar for you, I bet, given the sort of desiccated coconuts we are. But it doesn't work like this with crowds. Like markets, when the blood is up, you don't get steady corrections and fine tuning, you get bubbles and crashes.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Reagan in 1980 and Dole in 1996 did 7% better than the average 6 days out and Bush Snr in 1992 did 4% better, the same error would see it likely neck and neck in the EC
    What you are saying, if I read you correctly, is that challengers are twice as likely to have large swings towards them in the final week of the campaign.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue?
    If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
    Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.

    Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it

    "the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53580326
    Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit?
    If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.

    To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.
    Why don't we all have audiovisual bugs installed in every room of our houses then? They could livestream to the authorities 24 hours a day and make the detection of wrongthink so much easier...
    We already do, of course: almost every house now contains some smart device which can hear and record human conversation. If you don't have Alexa or Google Home you probably have Siri on your iPhone or Cortana on your computer or you can say "OK Google" to your Android device. And many of these also have cameres able to watch you 24/7

    So the government just needs to hook up with Google, Amaazon, Apple etc, and there you are: 1984 has truly arrived.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    Trafalgar are out with another poll

    I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats

    It has Biden still just ahead in Wisconsin, Trafalgar also has Trump ahead in Michigan and PA tied

    https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1321499914141052928?s=20
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    If an effective vaccine approved and available for the public (however small the initial rollout) by end of May 2020 were a Betfair exchange market, how would you price it?

    I'll go first: 1.8 is my opening.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681
    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_xP said:
    For comparison, Germany averaging 12k cases/day vs UK on 23k cases/day. They're acting earlier and more decisively.

    Whether their measures are going to be sufficient is unclear though.

    One thing i haven't seen analysed is how much winter weather is going to increase transmission.
    It does seem to be the problem. Dry air indoors (because you are heating up cold air which doesn't have much moisture) leads to respiratory diseases.

    Perhaps we should stick humidifiers everywhere.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Reagan in 1980 and Dole in 1996 did 7% better than the average 6 days out and Bush Snr in 1992 did 4% better, the same error would see it likely neck and neck in the EC
    What you are saying, if I read you correctly, is that challengers are twice as likely to have large swings towards them in the final week of the campaign.
    All 3 were Republicans, only 2 were challengers
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020
    LadyG said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue?
    If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
    Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.

    Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it

    "the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53580326
    Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit?
    If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.

    To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.
    Why don't we all have audiovisual bugs installed in every room of our houses then? They could livestream to the authorities 24 hours a day and make the detection of wrongthink so much easier...
    We already do, of course: almost every house now contains some smart device which can hear and record human conversation. If you don't have Alexa or Google Home you probably have Siri on your iPhone or Cortana on your computer or you can say "OK Google" to your Android device. And many of these also have cameres able to watch you 24/7

    So the government just needs to hook up with Google, Amaazon, Apple etc, and there you are: 1984 has truly arrived.

    Its amazing how everybody was totally fearful of ID cards, but perfectly happy to stream audio and video from inside their home to big tech companies. It isn't even as if Alexa or Google Home are even very good. I don't use them, because much easier just to use the remote.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Reagan in 1980 and Dole in 1996 did 7% better than the average 6 days out and Bush Snr in 1992 did 4% better, the same error would see it likely neck and neck in the EC
    Just as a matter of interest, how many votes had been cast early in those years?
    Most early voters are Democrats anyway
  • If an effective vaccine approved and available for the public (however small the initial rollout) by end of May 2020 were a Betfair exchange market, how would you price it?

    I'll go first: 1.8 is my opening.

    By May? 1.3

    1.8 I'd put for end of January.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue?
    If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
    Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.

    Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it

    "the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53580326
    Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit?
    If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.

    To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.
    Why don't we all have audiovisual bugs installed in every room of our houses then? They could livestream to the authorities 24 hours a day and make the detection of wrongthink so much easier...
    Alexa, Siri and Google say Hi!
  • On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).

    Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
    Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.

    And yet. Here we are

    This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.

    By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.

    The cure is killing the patient.

    If you actually knew anything about economics, you'd have some inkling that ignoring it is every bit as damaging as overreacting.

    The least damage to the economy is whatever reduces R to just below 1.
    Really?

    see here's the thing

    If they re-elect Donald Trump next week the US is looking a possible GDP plus this year. That's GDP plus. Numbers out Thursday show the 3Q rebound will leave America about 4% shy of pre-covid levels according to many economists. Fourth quarter so far OK.

    The UK? 10% down and counting with a gargantuan debt mountain.

    Europe? double dip recession coming, surely.

    But hey, obsess about 'R' as economic and social collapse sweep the continent, by all means.

    It depends on how you define re-elect. If Trump wins without the courts then the economic and financial outlook for the US will be comparatively strong (comparatively being the key word). If he does it only via the courts, then there are going to be very serious problems that will feed through not only to the US economy but to the global one.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366

    LadyG said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue?
    If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
    Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.

    Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it

    "the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53580326
    Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit?
    If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.

    To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.
    Why don't we all have audiovisual bugs installed in every room of our houses then? They could livestream to the authorities 24 hours a day and make the detection of wrongthink so much easier...
    We already do, of course: almost every house now contains some smart device which can hear and record human conversation. If you don't have Alexa or Google Home you probably have Siri on your iPhone or Cortana on your computer or you can say "OK Google" to your Android device. And many of these also have cameres able to watch you 24/7

    So the government just needs to hook up with Google, Amaazon, Apple etc, and there you are: 1984 has truly arrived.

    Its amazing how everybody was totally fearful of ID cards, but perfectly happy to stream audio and video from inside their home to big tech companies. It isn't even as if Alexa or Google Home are even very good. I don't use them, because much easier just to use the remote.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZfQymnABxQ
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    The insane 17 point Wisconsin poll

    1,451,462 have already voted
    37% in the poll say they have voted

    That means the Likely Voter screen says a total turnout of 4 million people

    Wisconsin only has 3,583,804 voters total.

    DANGER WILL ROBINSON DANGER.

    There can be an unknown number of ballots in the mail. The voters say that the have voted already yet their votes are not yet received/processed/reported. This could explain part of the inconsistency.
    That's error in the wrong direction. The more people who have early voted the larger the implied total turnout.
  • LadyG said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue?
    If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
    Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.

    Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it

    "the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53580326
    Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit?
    If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.

    To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.
    Why don't we all have audiovisual bugs installed in every room of our houses then? They could livestream to the authorities 24 hours a day and make the detection of wrongthink so much easier...
    We already do, of course: almost every house now contains some smart device which can hear and record human conversation. If you don't have Alexa or Google Home you probably have Siri on your iPhone or Cortana on your computer or you can say "OK Google" to your Android device. And many of these also have cameres able to watch you 24/7

    So the government just needs to hook up with Google, Amaazon, Apple etc, and there you are: 1984 has truly arrived.

    Its amazing how everybody was totally fearful of ID cards, but perfectly happy to stream audio and video from inside their home to big tech companies. It isn't even as if Alexa or Google Home are even very good. I don't use them, because much easier just to use the remote.
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZfQymnABxQ
    Great show that for the first few seasons.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Trafalgar are out with another poll

    I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats


  • If an effective vaccine approved and available for the public (however small the initial rollout) by end of May 2020 were a Betfair exchange market, how would you price it?

    I'll go first: 1.8 is my opening.

    By May? 1.3

    1.8 I'd put for end of January.
    Somewhere in between the two. 1.5-1.6 perhaps.
  • LadyG said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    LadyG said:

    Is there no one left in Scotland with any bollocks at all?

    Look at this:

    https://twitter.com/buffsoldier_96/status/1321401417752563713?s=20

    "Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."

    Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue?
    If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
    Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.

    Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it

    "the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53580326
    Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit?
    If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.

    To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.
    Why don't we all have audiovisual bugs installed in every room of our houses then? They could livestream to the authorities 24 hours a day and make the detection of wrongthink so much easier...
    We already do, of course: almost every house now contains some smart device which can hear and record human conversation. If you don't have Alexa or Google Home you probably have Siri on your iPhone or Cortana on your computer or you can say "OK Google" to your Android device. And many of these also have cameres able to watch you 24/7

    So the government just needs to hook up with Google, Amaazon, Apple etc, and there you are: 1984 has truly arrived.

    Its amazing how everybody was totally fearful of ID cards, but perfectly happy to stream audio and video from inside their home to big tech companies. It isn't even as if Alexa or Google Home are even very good. I don't use them, because much easier just to use the remote.
    The thing that is annoying with Alexa is just how often it starts responding when you haven't said "Alexa" or anything like it to summon it.

    But the really creepy thing I've noticed is how often I've had a conversation discussing something, not searched online for it - and then start seeing adverts online for what we were talking about. Makes me think that my phone is eavesdropping on me and setting adverts based on that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited October 2020
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Reagan in 1980 and Dole in 1996 did 7% better than the average 6 days out and Bush Snr in 1992 did 4% better, the same error would see it likely neck and neck in the EC
    Just as a matter of interest, how many votes had been cast early in those years?
    Most early voters are Democrats anyway
    Or ^
This discussion has been closed.