If an effective vaccine approved and available for the public (however small the initial rollout) by end of May 2020 were a Betfair exchange market, how would you price it?
"Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."
Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue? If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.
Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it
"the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."
It's total overreach that's intended to result in people self-policing private conversations with threat of Stasi-like grassing up to the authorities if they don't. It'll only take a handful of cases like that to do its job.
New offences of "possessing inflammatory material" are also proposed which covers people who "have in their possession threatening, abusive or insulting material with a view to communicating the material to another person" - so, for example, you could argue (and some would) that lending one of Ian Fleming's very un-PC original James Bond novels to a friend was an offence.
Ironically, the bill abolishes the offence of blasphemy but simply introduces its new modern form.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.
The standouts the ABC poll and the Monmouth poll for Georgia .
Overall today’s state polling so far suggests somewhat of a disconnect with the national polls bar the YouGov which has an 11 point lead for Biden .
In terms of the mid west the spike in covid cases is coming at the worst time for Trump , the more this is in the news there the more people will be reminded of his disastrous response to the pandemic .
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.
Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc
This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success
"Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."
Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue? If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.
Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it
"the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."
Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit? If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.
To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.
Why don't we all have audiovisual bugs installed in every room of our houses then? They could livestream to the authorities 24 hours a day and make the detection of wrongthink so much easier...
For most people 1984 was a warning. For some people 1984 was an instruction manual.
My general view: if the authorities can, they will.
It's natural for any Government or authority to seek to expand its powers and reach, which is why there must always be a strong civil pushback and challenge.
If an effective vaccine approved and available for the public (however small the initial rollout) by end of May 2020 were a Betfair exchange market, how would you price it?
I'll go first: 1.8 is my opening.
I'm shorter if you mean the 1st tranche for, say, HCWs + the over 75s.
"Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."
Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue? If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.
Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it
"the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."
Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit? If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.
To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.
Why don't we all have audiovisual bugs installed in every room of our houses then? They could livestream to the authorities 24 hours a day and make the detection of wrongthink so much easier...
We already do, of course: almost every house now contains some smart device which can hear and record human conversation. If you don't have Alexa or Google Home you probably have Siri on your iPhone or Cortana on your computer or you can say "OK Google" to your Android device. And many of these also have cameres able to watch you 24/7
So the government just needs to hook up with Google, Amaazon, Apple etc, and there you are: 1984 has truly arrived.
Its amazing how everybody was totally fearful of ID cards, but perfectly happy to stream audio and video from inside their home to big tech companies. It isn't even as if Alexa or Google Home are even very good. I don't use them, because much easier just to use the remote.
The thing that is annoying with Alexa is just how often it starts responding when you haven't said "Alexa" or anything like it to summon it.
But the really creepy thing I've noticed is how often I've had a conversation discussing something, not searched online for it - and then start seeing adverts online for what we were talking about. Makes me think that my phone is eavesdropping on me and setting adverts based on that.
If an effective vaccine approved and available for the public (however small the initial rollout) by end of May 2020 were a Betfair exchange market, how would you price it?
I'll go first: 1.8 is my opening.
By May 2021 1.01
Strong. Why do you think it's a near certainty?
I think we have very good evidence from phase III trials but there's always a risk of a late catastrophic issue that scuppers it.
I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats
For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)
I am impressed that Trafalgar manages to find the pro-Trump 18-24 sample in every single one of their polls.
Every single one that they have published cross breaks for the 18-24 sample is prod Trump.
Just, amazing consistency.
He's making them up. I've looked at the registration data from North Carolina (A definite swing state) of 18 - 24 yr old voters. If Trump was up with this segment he'd be heading for about 500 electoral college votes.
If an effective vaccine approved and available for the public (however small the initial rollout) by end of May 2020 were a Betfair exchange market, how would you price it?
I'll go first: 1.8 is my opening.
By May 2021 1.01
Strong. Why do you think it's a near certainty?
I think we have very good evidence from phase III trials but there's always a risk of a late catastrophic issue that scuppers it.
I wouldn't say 1.01 but I do feel my 1.3 was perhaps pessimistic.
Aren't there 8 vaccines in PIII trials now that are scheduled to end before May? The odds that all 8 would fail seems slim - though I suppose there might be some correlation between them that makes it more likely.
Despite all these new lockdowns all over Europe, isn't the jury still out over whether they will have any real impact?
Because... schools.
Throughout there has always been this talk of trade offs, about pubs opening vs schools closing etc, but is anyone really sure if this trade off actually exists? Especially if pubs are largely enforcing and people complying with the "single household" rules (i'm sure that boyfriends/girlfriends etc aren't, but then they wouldn't be anyway pub or no pub).
Or is the whole issue really just... schools? And if schools stay open and children continue to mix (as they inevitably will, both outside and inside) then might the lockdowns just not make any material difference?
What's the betting these last right through to 2021? Maybe Spring 2021?
Horrific
Just about to go into Tier 3 here. No one I have spoken to expects us to be allowed out of it until the spring. Apart from anything no minister can articulate what the strategy is or criteria for leaving it other than blather about protecting the NHS. If that is the goal then it is Tier 3 until the winter is over. There is always going to be pressure on beds from now until, say, March.
The escape strategy is the vaccine
Yep, nations are staking everything on it. Wealth, liberties the lot. Biggest bet in history. FFS pray it pays off.
Except one.
“It’s a big mistake to sit down and say ‘we should just wait for a vaccine’. It will take much longer than we think. And in the end, we don’t know how good a vaccine it will be. It’s another reason to have a sustainable policy in place.”
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.
Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc
This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success
I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats
For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)
The weirdest part about it is he could just give Trump a huge seniors lead and the lies would look much more plausible.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
If you actually knew anything about economics, you'd have some inkling that ignoring it is every bit as damaging as overreacting.
The least damage to the economy is whatever reduces R to just below 1.
Really?
see here's the thing
If they re-elect Donald Trump next week the US is looking a possible GDP plus this year. That's GDP plus. Numbers out Thursday show the 3Q rebound will leave America about 4% shy of pre-covid levels according to many economists. Fourth quarter so far OK.
The UK? 10% down and counting with a gargantuan debt mountain.
Europe? double dip recession coming, surely.
But hey, obsess about 'R' as economic and social collapse sweep the continent, by all means.
It depends on how you define re-elect. If Trump wins without the courts then the economic and financial outlook for the US will be comparatively strong (comparatively being the key word). If he does it only via the courts, then there are going to be very serious problems that will feed through not only to the US economy but to the global one.
Markets and businesses hate uncertainty. Protracted political and legal turmoil post election will be a disaster on so many levels.
I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats
For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)
Incidentally, the head to head figures are narrowing.
"Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."
Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue? If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.
Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it
"the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."
Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit? If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.
To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.
Why don't we all have audiovisual bugs installed in every room of our houses then? They could livestream to the authorities 24 hours a day and make the detection of wrongthink so much easier...
For most people 1984 was a warning. For some people 1984 was an instruction manual.
That's original, Philip.
Me, I wouldn't mind being watched 24/7 but with one very important proviso - that everybody else was too. Including you.
If you ask them if they want consistency they will say yes. If you ask them if local/regional rules should be devolved to local people who understand their situation the best they will also say yes.
I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats
For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)
Incidentally, the head to head figures are narrowing.
I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats
For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)
There is this theory that the young are most annoyed about lockdowns/unconcerned about the virus. It could be that the Trafalgar guy has decided this is an opportunity to secure his "reputation" if Trump wins. It's suspicious that he's suddenly started releasing tables to go with his "polls" and maybe this is the reason. If Trump wins he's going to pivot away from "shy Trumpists" being the explanation towards it all being about the young. Whether the tables are genuine or not is another matter.
What's the betting these last right through to 2021? Maybe Spring 2021?
Horrific
Just about to go into Tier 3 here. No one I have spoken to expects us to be allowed out of it until the spring. Apart from anything no minister can articulate what the strategy is or criteria for leaving it other than blather about protecting the NHS. If that is the goal then it is Tier 3 until the winter is over. There is always going to be pressure on beds from now until, say, March.
The escape strategy is the vaccine
Yep, nations are staking everything on it. Wealth, liberties the lot. Biggest bet in history. FFS pray it pays off.
Except one.
“It’s a big mistake to sit down and say ‘we should just wait for a vaccine’. It will take much longer than we think. And in the end, we don’t know how good a vaccine it will be. It’s another reason to have a sustainable policy in place.”
What will be interesting is the reaction of a covid-fatigued public to the news that despite the delivery of a vaccine they may still have another 6 months plus of the same levels of restrictions to suck up until the vaccine is rolled out in any vaguely meaningful numbers.
I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats
For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)
The weirdest part about it is he could just give Trump a huge seniors lead and the lies would look much more plausible.
His whole stich depends on coming up with unconventional theories to back up his numbers. Things that (other) polls won't pick up on, or will dismiss as outliers if they do. Saying it was all due to seniors would be too conventional and wouldn't explain why he was out of line with (other) pollsters.
I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats
For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)
Incidentally, the head to head figures are narrowing.
What will be interesting is the reaction of a covid-fatigued public to the news that despite the delivery of a vaccine they may still have another 6 months plus of the same levels of restrictions to suck up until the vaccine is rolled out in any vaguely meaningful numbers.
It shouldn't take six months to be vaguely meaningful.
If there's any efficacy to the vaccine then simply rolling it out at care homes (which can be done reasonably rapidly) will make a tremendous difference on figures and risks of hospital capacity.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
In much of Australia, the housing is far, far more spacious. There are some pokey flats in bits of Sydney....
But much of it isn't. I recall one entertaining example - an estate agent in the suburbs of Melbourne had put a full sized snooker table in the corner of *one* of the living rooms of a middle class house. To make the room feel less empty....
There is still 5 million odd people in Melbourne and Sydney though. No an insignificant number, who still have to go to buy food etc. We aren't talking that they have managed it better, like say Germany, they have basically stopped it in its tracks. Without the security guards bonking the hotel guests in quarantine, they would hardly have seen any since the initial cluster of infections.
They had a 110 day total lockdown
Most of those 5 million have a lot more space. Public transport is also much less prevalent. So people live (on average) in what, by UK standards would be huge houses and travel everywhere in their own personal transport bubble...
Despite all these new lockdowns all over Europe, isn't the jury still out over whether they will have any real impact?
Because... schools.
Throughout there has always been this talk of trade offs, about pubs opening vs schools closing etc, but is anyone really sure if this trade off actually exists? Especially if pubs are largely enforcing and people complying with the "single household" rules (i'm sure that boyfriends/girlfriends etc aren't, but then they wouldn't be anyway pub or no pub).
Or is the whole issue really just... schools? And if schools stay open and children continue to mix (as they inevitably will, both outside and inside) then might the lockdowns just not make any material difference?
That's possible. Some evidence from Ireland suggests it's unlikely.
The positivity rate for close contacts of a positive case in a school is less than 3%. The positivity rate for close contacts of a positive case elsewhere is 10%.
This suggests that the virus is much less likely to spread within schools than elsewhere.
I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats
For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)
Incidentally, the head to head figures are narrowing.
What's the betting these last right through to 2021? Maybe Spring 2021?
Horrific
Just about to go into Tier 3 here. No one I have spoken to expects us to be allowed out of it until the spring. Apart from anything no minister can articulate what the strategy is or criteria for leaving it other than blather about protecting the NHS. If that is the goal then it is Tier 3 until the winter is over. There is always going to be pressure on beds from now until, say, March.
The escape strategy is the vaccine
Yep, nations are staking everything on it. Wealth, liberties the lot. Biggest bet in history. FFS pray it pays off.
Except one.
“It’s a big mistake to sit down and say ‘we should just wait for a vaccine’. It will take much longer than we think. And in the end, we don’t know how good a vaccine it will be. It’s another reason to have a sustainable policy in place.”
Argentina's experience shows that long lockdowns aren't sustainable
And Melbourne's shows they are. So ... ???
Melbourne shows no such thing. The virus is still with us, and still virulent. Even Australia is ultimately praying for a vaccine.
If there is no vaccine, Australia will have to keep the borders closed, AND do statewide lockdowns once again when the virus spreads again - as it inevitably will. And on and on and on. Forever?
That is NOT sustainable, economically, even for a very wealthy, isolated nation like Oz.
Any attempt to use the last 3-5 days to prove anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete will lead to the following. The offender being lockdown down in a room with Piers Corbyn, Piers Morgan, Julian Assange and a Lawyer in his wife's kimono. For 2 weeks. With only the worst bits of ConservativeHome for entertainment.
Malmesbury - I've wondered this for a while, but do you know why the positivity rate shows a weekly pattern? Shouldn't it be much smoother?
That's a very good question. If anything, you might expect the proportion of positive cases to increase, rather than decrease, at the weekend with fewer specimens being taken but more likely to be of infected people. It's not at all obvious to me why the positivity rate should decrease at the weekend!
Less people getting tested in the hospitals/test and trace teams?
Seems the highest values are Mondays. Hmmmmmm.....
But why the huge variation in positivity over the course of a week? On the face of it, you wouldn't expect the proportion of positive cases to vary appreciably since it shouldn't depend on the number of tests or other weekly factors. When you get results that don't make sense, you need to find out why because it might otherwise be a sign that your data analysis is faulty!
Was just looking at RCPs polling averages for 2020 compared to 2016 and had forgotten how badly Clinton's lead plummeted in the closing days. 6 Days before the election in 2016 her av lead was less than 2% and had dropped almost 0.5% every day for the last week or two. Biden's av lead is also dropping but much slower and he is still over 5% higher than Clinton was at this stage, I checked RCP as if anything the tend to lean more R in their numbers than 538.
I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats
For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)
Fillon won 60 to 69 year olds 27% to 26% for Macron and 19% for Le Pen in the first round in 2017 and Fillon won over 70s 45% to 27% for Macron and 10% for Le Pen.
Melenchon won 18 to 24s 30% to 21% for Le Pen, 18% for Macron and 9% for Fillon so the comparison does not really follow
I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats
For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)
This was exactly the same as in 2016, Michigan, Colorado it didn't matter. Wherever Trafalgar did a poll with cross tabs the 18-24 would be breaking heavily for Trump.
What will be interesting is the reaction of a covid-fatigued public to the news that despite the delivery of a vaccine they may still have another 6 months plus of the same levels of restrictions to suck up until the vaccine is rolled out in any vaguely meaningful numbers.
This is why the Government have toned down the vaccine positivity this week following the publishing of Bristol Unis report. They don't want people to think they don't need to follow the Covid restirctions anymore as a vaccine will be along any minute.
What's the betting these last right through to 2021? Maybe Spring 2021?
Horrific
Just about to go into Tier 3 here. No one I have spoken to expects us to be allowed out of it until the spring. Apart from anything no minister can articulate what the strategy is or criteria for leaving it other than blather about protecting the NHS. If that is the goal then it is Tier 3 until the winter is over. There is always going to be pressure on beds from now until, say, March.
The escape strategy is the vaccine
Yep, nations are staking everything on it. Wealth, liberties the lot. Biggest bet in history. FFS pray it pays off.
Except one.
“It’s a big mistake to sit down and say ‘we should just wait for a vaccine’. It will take much longer than we think. And in the end, we don’t know how good a vaccine it will be. It’s another reason to have a sustainable policy in place.”
Argentina's experience shows that long lockdowns aren't sustainable
And Melbourne's shows they are. So ... ???
Melbourne shows no such thing. The virus is still with us, and still virulent. Even Australia is ultimately praying for a vaccine.
If there is no vaccine, Australia will have to keep the borders closed, AND do statewide lockdowns once again when the virus spreads again - as it inevitably will. And on and on and on. Forever?
That is NOT sustainable, economically, even for a very wealthy, isolated nation like Oz.
Yes it is, for a while at least. If it meant living life as normal then NZ and Australia could cope for years as a "bubble" with quarantine for anyone coming in.
Despite all these new lockdowns all over Europe, isn't the jury still out over whether they will have any real impact?
Because... schools.
Throughout there has always been this talk of trade offs, about pubs opening vs schools closing etc, but is anyone really sure if this trade off actually exists? Especially if pubs are largely enforcing and people complying with the "single household" rules (i'm sure that boyfriends/girlfriends etc aren't, but then they wouldn't be anyway pub or no pub).
Or is the whole issue really just... schools? And if schools stay open and children continue to mix (as they inevitably will, both outside and inside) then might the lockdowns just not make any material difference?
That's possible. Some evidence from Ireland suggests it's unlikely.
The positivity rate for close contacts of a positive case in a school is less than 3%. The positivity rate for close contacts of a positive case elsewhere is 10%.
This suggests that the virus is much less likely to spread within schools than elsewhere.
But doesn't that depend on the nature of the "close contacts" elsewhere? I would imagine that the latter figures are likely to be massively skewed by the fact that most people's "close contacts" are likely to be within the home. I wonder what the relative figures would be if you compared "school contacts" versus "non-schools contacts (excluding households"? Also not that within schools "close contacts" is possibly likely to encompass a far larger (and more loosely connected) numbers of people. So you would expect positivity rates to be lower.
I am impressed that Trafalgar manages to find the pro-Trump 18-24 sample in every single one of their polls.
Every single one that they have published cross breaks for the 18-24 sample is prod Trump.
Just, amazing consistency.
He's making them up. I've looked at the registration data from North Carolina (A definite swing state) of 18 - 24 yr old voters. If Trump was up with this segment he'd be heading for about 500 electoral college votes.
Trafalgar had Trump winning 18-24's by 43.81% - 33.34% in Colorado in 2016.
I still giggle that he gave the figures to 2 decimal places.
What will be interesting is the reaction of a covid-fatigued public to the news that despite the delivery of a vaccine they may still have another 6 months plus of the same levels of restrictions to suck up until the vaccine is rolled out in any vaguely meaningful numbers.
It shouldn't take six months to be vaguely meaningful.
If there's any efficacy to the vaccine then simply rolling it out at care homes (which can be done reasonably rapidly) will make a tremendous difference on figures and risks of hospital capacity.
So how quickly after a vaccine is announced do you foresee the end of the tier system, the end of masks in public, the end of social distancing, total normality? Just out of curiosity.
I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats
For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)
This was exactly the same as in 2016, Michigan, Colorado it didn't matter. Wherever Trafalgar did a poll with cross tabs the 18-24 would be breaking heavily for Trump.
Exit polls did not back this up.
The results however did back up Trafalgar having Trump ahead in Michigan and PA
Another sign that West Yorkshire is in line for Tier 3:
'Non-urgent surgery has been suspended at Airedale Hospital for two weeks, it's been confirmed.
The hospital, near Keighley, is seeing "increased demand" which means its in-patient beds are at capacity, according to Airedale NHS Foundation Trust, which runs the site.
In a statement, the trust says: "We have taken the decision to postpone any elective surgery that needs an overnight stay.
"This comes into effect immediately, for the next two weeks. Urgent and emergency cases and cancer surgery will be carrying on as normal."'
So its fake and shouldn't be taken seriously by anyone.
No it isn't those results are similar to most other pollsters and of course Trump is younger than Biden so maybe Trump will do a bit better with the youngest voters this time while Biden does better with older voters
I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats
For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)
This was exactly the same as in 2016, Michigan, Colorado it didn't matter. Wherever Trafalgar did a poll with cross tabs the 18-24 would be breaking heavily for Trump.
Exit polls did not back this up.
The results however did back up Trafalgar having Trump ahead in Michigan and PA
It backs up the line that they got the right result for the wrong reasons. The very definition of stopped clock syndrome.
What will be interesting is the reaction of a covid-fatigued public to the news that despite the delivery of a vaccine they may still have another 6 months plus of the same levels of restrictions to suck up until the vaccine is rolled out in any vaguely meaningful numbers.
It shouldn't take six months to be vaguely meaningful.
If there's any efficacy to the vaccine then simply rolling it out at care homes (which can be done reasonably rapidly) will make a tremendous difference on figures and risks of hospital capacity.
So how quickly after a vaccine is announced do you foresee the end of the tier system, the end of masks in public, the end of social distancing, total normality? Just out of curiosity.
No idea. Maybe a year for an end to all of it including masks?
But if we can see an end to regions going into Tier 3 - and more regions going from Tier 3 to Tier 2 instead, or Tier 2 to Tier 1 instead etc - then that would be progress.
I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats
For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)
This was exactly the same as in 2016, Michigan, Colorado it didn't matter. Wherever Trafalgar did a poll with cross tabs the 18-24 would be breaking heavily for Trump.
Exit polls did not back this up.
The results however did back up Trafalgar having Trump ahead in Michigan and PA
Do you think Trump won the 18-24 year old demographic in those states?
What's the betting these last right through to 2021? Maybe Spring 2021?
Horrific
Just about to go into Tier 3 here. No one I have spoken to expects us to be allowed out of it until the spring. Apart from anything no minister can articulate what the strategy is or criteria for leaving it other than blather about protecting the NHS. If that is the goal then it is Tier 3 until the winter is over. There is always going to be pressure on beds from now until, say, March.
The escape strategy is the vaccine
Yep, nations are staking everything on it. Wealth, liberties the lot. Biggest bet in history. FFS pray it pays off.
Except one.
“It’s a big mistake to sit down and say ‘we should just wait for a vaccine’. It will take much longer than we think. And in the end, we don’t know how good a vaccine it will be. It’s another reason to have a sustainable policy in place.”
Argentina's experience shows that long lockdowns aren't sustainable
And Melbourne's shows they are. So ... ???
Melbourne shows no such thing. The virus is still with us, and still virulent. Even Australia is ultimately praying for a vaccine.
If there is no vaccine, Australia will have to keep the borders closed, AND do statewide lockdowns once again when the virus spreads again - as it inevitably will. And on and on and on. Forever?
That is NOT sustainable, economically, even for a very wealthy, isolated nation like Oz.
Yes it is, for a while at least. If it meant living life as normal then NZ and Australia could cope for years as a "bubble" with quarantine for anyone coming in.
It may be theoretically "possible" to have repeated intense and prolonged lockdowns, like the one just finished in Victoria, but I do not believe it is sustainable socially or economically. In the end people will simply rebel, rather than go mad or bankrupt.
I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats
For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)
Incidentally, the head to head figures are narrowing.
Another sign that West Yorkshire is in line for Tier 3:
'Non-urgent surgery has been suspended at Airedale Hospital for two weeks, it's been confirmed.
The hospital, near Keighley, is seeing "increased demand" which means its in-patient beds are at capacity, according to Airedale NHS Foundation Trust, which runs the site.
In a statement, the trust says: "We have taken the decision to postpone any elective surgery that needs an overnight stay.
"This comes into effect immediately, for the next two weeks. Urgent and emergency cases and cancer surgery will be carrying on as normal."'
Shows the wide differences and emphasises how to some extent it was London and very few elsewhere that bore the brunt in the first wave. London currently has 792 in hospital, compared to nearly 5,000 at the peak.
For me , although there are lots of permutations, who wins the election will come down to two states, FL and PA. If Biden wins FL he's going to win, end of. If he loses, though there may be some ups and downs , I think it will come down to PA. I still think the national polls are reflecting more that Biden is doing better in places like TX and GA but I don't expect him to win either or NC. AZ I think he will. I am pretty confident he will win MI and WI but I have real doubts about PA, yes he's about 5% up but the mood music there seems so volatile. So I think if it comes down to PA (which I think it will as i suspect Trump will win FL just), we may have to wait a while to know who's won and can expect some shenanigans over postal votes. So much against my personal wishes I really can see Trump falling over the line, despite losing the popular vote by more than 2016 and only just getting past 270 this time. Now I need a stiff drink
This is my exact fear – and my forecast – although I think in that scenario, it ends up 269-269?
The one prediction I want to make is that I think Biden wins Georgia in almost all circumstances.
Well if that happens he is in the White House.
What makes you so confident?
(P.S. I share others' scepticism about a PA Biden win)
I think the failed (but slim) Stacey Abrams election attempt will drive further turnout in favour of the Dems.
Look at Fulton County - Atlanta - 344,876 votes so far. That’s 80% of the 2016 turnout already.
There is a plausible scenario whereby Biden underperforms in the rustbelt but arrives in the White House via the sunbelt.
I see Ladbrokes now have Trump favourite to win FL at 8/11
And as Florida goes, so goes the presidency, generally. But stop bothering people with facts.
That is simply not true, but then facts never really seem to impinge much on your world view. Biden could easily win whilst losing Florida
Sorry but this is balls, Florida has picked the winner since 1996, and almost every time before that. After Ohio it is the state that best represents the diversity, both economically and demographically, of the whole US. If your message has failed in Florida, it's really quite unlikely it will work in the other states you need to flip.
Ohio is going to be safe R, and Florida may not be far behind.
The point under discussion is that because Florida has generally voted for the winner Biden can't win if he loses Florida. That's absolute bollox.
Yes, Florida is far from essential for Biden which is just as well because I suspect he will lose it. In the past it has been pivotal but that honour belongs to Pennsylvania now. Difficult for either to win without PA although more so Trump than Biden. Nate S did a good piece on this:
My guess is that Biden will win with PA plus one or two from Ariz/Geo/Iowa/NC. That should do it because I just don't see Trump getting close in any of the States leaning more Biden's way than PA - i.e. Nev/Mic/Minn/Wisc etc. They are all looking pretty solid.
It therefore no longer looks to me a question of whether Biden wins, but by how much. I'm reckoning a modest distance, but it could easily stretch because Ariz/Geo etc are all on a knife edge.
And then there's always Texas!
Pretty much agree with that.
If Trump manages to win the Presidency again despite losing the popular vote the the GOP will have once won the popular vote only once in the last 8 contests. Any reasonable person would conclude that the system is broken. I think the GOP know they will struggle to win at the popular vote and so spend so much energy on surpressing their opponent's votes. The US really is moving into quasi-democracy status.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.
Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc
This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success
But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.
I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.
Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc
This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success
But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.
I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.
Is there any real evidence of "packed" beaches having any impact much at all?
For me , although there are lots of permutations, who wins the election will come down to two states, FL and PA. If Biden wins FL he's going to win, end of. If he loses, though there may be some ups and downs , I think it will come down to PA. I still think the national polls are reflecting more that Biden is doing better in places like TX and GA but I don't expect him to win either or NC. AZ I think he will. I am pretty confident he will win MI and WI but I have real doubts about PA, yes he's about 5% up but the mood music there seems so volatile. So I think if it comes down to PA (which I think it will as i suspect Trump will win FL just), we may have to wait a while to know who's won and can expect some shenanigans over postal votes. So much against my personal wishes I really can see Trump falling over the line, despite losing the popular vote by more than 2016 and only just getting past 270 this time. Now I need a stiff drink
This is my exact fear – and my forecast – although I think in that scenario, it ends up 269-269?
The one prediction I want to make is that I think Biden wins Georgia in almost all circumstances.
Well if that happens he is in the White House.
What makes you so confident?
(P.S. I share others' scepticism about a PA Biden win)
I think the failed (but slim) Stacey Abrams election attempt will drive further turnout in favour of the Dems.
Look at Fulton County - Atlanta - 344,876 votes so far. That’s 80% of the 2016 turnout already.
There is a plausible scenario whereby Biden underperforms in the rustbelt but arrives in the White House via the sunbelt.
I see Ladbrokes now have Trump favourite to win FL at 8/11
And as Florida goes, so goes the presidency, generally. But stop bothering people with facts.
That is simply not true, but then facts never really seem to impinge much on your world view. Biden could easily win whilst losing Florida
Sorry but this is balls, Florida has picked the winner since 1996, and almost every time before that. After Ohio it is the state that best represents the diversity, both economically and demographically, of the whole US. If your message has failed in Florida, it's really quite unlikely it will work in the other states you need to flip.
Ohio is going to be safe R, and Florida may not be far behind.
The point under discussion is that because Florida has generally voted for the winner Biden can't win if he loses Florida. That's absolute bollox.
Yes, Florida is far from essential for Biden which is just as well because I suspect he will lose it. In the past it has been pivotal but that honour belongs to Pennsylvania now. Difficult for either to win without PA although more so Trump than Biden. Nate S did a good piece on this:
My guess is that Biden will win with PA plus one or two from Ariz/Geo/Iowa/NC. That should do it because I just don't see Trump getting close in any of the States leaning more Biden's way than PA - i.e. Nev/Mic/Minn/Wisc etc. They are all looking pretty solid.
It therefore no longer looks to me a question of whether Biden wins, but by how much. I'm reckoning a modest distance, but it could easily stretch because Ariz/Geo etc are all on a knife edge.
And then there's always Texas!
Pretty much agree with that.
If Trump manages to win the Presidency again despite losing the popular vote the the GOP will have once won the popular vote only once in the last 8 contests. Any reasonable person would conclude that the system is broken. I think the GOP know they will struggle to win at the popular vote and so spend so much energy on surpressing their opponent's votes. The US really is moving into quasi-democracy status.
McCain would probably have won the popular vote against Gore in 2000 as would Kasich against Hillary in 2016 and Bush of course did win the popular vote in 2004, the GOP could win the popular vote if it had to pick a more moderate candidate but for now it knows the EC gives it the luxury of picking a populist right candidate who can still win
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.
Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc
This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success
But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.
I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.
Is there any real evidence of "packed" beaches having any impact much at all?
The more people travel around, the more they use the loos, the more they touch everything, etc etc etc. It also makes contact tracing way way harder. If you can only go 5 miles, you can't interact with that many different people and there is a limited number of venues you will have visited.
Medics in hospitals across Russia voiced frustration that authorities failed to use the summer respite to prepare for a second coronavirus wave.
“People were told every day that the virus is defeated and that life is back to normal. Slowly but surely it crept back in. This time, the virus has a wider reach across all ages and social classes,” Vlassov said, adding that while Russians were afraid of the virus in spring, now it is harder to urge them to take precautions.
Medics working in hospitals across Russia’s regions described severe shortages of hospital beds and medical staff. Many voiced their frustration that mistakes made during the first crisis in spring were being repeated, and that authorities had failed to use the summer respite to adequately prepare.
“We knew it was coming, yet we were caught off guard anyway,” said Alexei, a surgeon working at the Infectious Disease Hospital in Elista, the capital of the republic of Kalmykia. He declined to give his surname.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.
Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc
This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success
But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.
I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.
Maybe, but I've just been down in Cornwall where they were all terrified that the huge influx of holidaymakers after lockdown (and the surge was massive and prolonged, because most British tourists could or would not go abroad) would inevitably lead to a sharp rise in Covid cases in Cornwall.
Yet it hasn't happened at all. Cornwall is still almost Covid-free.
This virus is a bloody mysterious little bastard. It never behaves QUITE how you expect
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.
Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc
This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success
But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.
I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.
Is there any real evidence of "packed" beaches having any impact much at all?
The more people travel around, the more they use the loos, the more they touch everything, etc etc etc.
But the consensus increasingly is that the virus is not being spread via surface contacts?
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.
Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc
This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success
But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.
Stopping people travelling about might have been important during the early spring, when (almost) all of us stayed at home. It really doesn’t matter that much now, when the virus is everywhere. What matters now is how people are behaving where they are, wherever that is.
What will be interesting is the reaction of a covid-fatigued public to the news that despite the delivery of a vaccine they may still have another 6 months plus of the same levels of restrictions to suck up until the vaccine is rolled out in any vaguely meaningful numbers.
It shouldn't take six months to be vaguely meaningful.
If there's any efficacy to the vaccine then simply rolling it out at care homes (which can be done reasonably rapidly) will make a tremendous difference on figures and risks of hospital capacity.
So how quickly after a vaccine is announced do you foresee the end of the tier system, the end of masks in public, the end of social distancing, total normality? Just out of curiosity.
No idea. Maybe a year for an end to all of it including masks?
But if we can see an end to regions going into Tier 3 - and more regions going from Tier 3 to Tier 2 instead, or Tier 2 to Tier 1 instead etc - then that would be progress.
That's fair enough, but it's not really all that different from what I was getting at in my original post - that the announcement or rollout of the first few doses of a vaccine still won't mean back to any real sort of normal for a significant period.
I have no issue with either of them, but it's very hard to escape the conclusion that they (or Harry at least) wants all the attention of being royal with none of the intrusion. Which is something I imagine many people have sympathy with, but is also not what they want from their royals.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.
Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc
This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success
But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.
I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.
Maybe, but I've just been down in Cornwall where they were all terrified that the huge influx of holidaymakers after lockdown (and the surge was massive and prolonged, because most British tourists could or would not go abroad) would inevitably lead to a sharp rise in Covid cases in Cornwall.
Yet it hasn't happened at all. Cornwall is still almost Covid-free.
This virus is a bloody mysterious little bastard. It never behaves QUITE how you expect
It is interesting, because we know that the European getaway to sunny climbs has caused spread both in that country and across Europe. Maybe as the Cornish are always wary of the Grockles, they already have a built in mechanism to avoid the plague bringers.
Any attempt to use the last 3-5 days to prove anything other than that the last 3-5 days are incomplete will lead to the following. The offender being lockdown down in a room with Piers Corbyn, Piers Morgan, Julian Assange and a Lawyer in his wife's kimono. For 2 weeks. With only the worst bits of ConservativeHome for entertainment.
Malmesbury - I've wondered this for a while, but do you know why the positivity rate shows a weekly pattern? Shouldn't it be much smoother?
That's a very good question. If anything, you might expect the proportion of positive cases to increase, rather than decrease, at the weekend with fewer specimens being taken but more likely to be of infected people. It's not at all obvious to me why the positivity rate should decrease at the weekend!
Less people getting tested in the hospitals/test and trace teams?
Seems the highest values are Mondays. Hmmmmmm.....
But why the huge variation in positivity over the course of a week? On the face of it, you wouldn't expect the proportion of positive cases to vary appreciably since it shouldn't depend on the number of tests or other weekly factors. When you get results that don't make sense, you need to find out why because it might otherwise be a sign that your data analysis is faulty!
They are fairly basic numbers - one divided by the other. Not much scope for analysis there....
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.
Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc
This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success
But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.
I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.
Maybe, but I've just been down in Cornwall where they were all terrified that the huge influx of holidaymakers after lockdown (and the surge was massive and prolonged, because most British tourists could or would not go abroad) would inevitably lead to a sharp rise in Covid cases in Cornwall.
Yet it hasn't happened at all. Cornwall is still almost Covid-free.
This virus is a bloody mysterious little bastard. It never behaves QUITE how you expect
All makes perfect sense if you hypothesise that almost all transmission is via airborne transmission and inside. So schools, universities and households. And other non socially distanced indoor venues.
The current favoured forms of lockdowns/restrictions focus almost entirely on clamping down on the latter, leaving the former 3 untouched. Unlike March/April when only households were left untouched. Which in isolation isn't that much of a problem, because there is limited route that the virus can get in to any single household in absence of the other factors.
What will be interesting is the reaction of a covid-fatigued public to the news that despite the delivery of a vaccine they may still have another 6 months plus of the same levels of restrictions to suck up until the vaccine is rolled out in any vaguely meaningful numbers.
It shouldn't take six months to be vaguely meaningful.
If there's any efficacy to the vaccine then simply rolling it out at care homes (which can be done reasonably rapidly) will make a tremendous difference on figures and risks of hospital capacity.
So how quickly after a vaccine is announced do you foresee the end of the tier system, the end of masks in public, the end of social distancing, total normality? Just out of curiosity.
No idea. Maybe a year for an end to all of it including masks?
But if we can see an end to regions going into Tier 3 - and more regions going from Tier 3 to Tier 2 instead, or Tier 2 to Tier 1 instead etc - then that would be progress.
It needs careful messaging; "This seems like a dark hour, and it will seem dark for a while, but the dawn is coming..." But messaging and inspiration is meant to be what the current top team are good at, aren't they? It's not easy; remember Norman Lamont and "green shoots of economic spring"? But Churchill could have done it. Religious communicators do it; "the light shines in the darkness and the darkness has not overcome it" is all about the bad times not being forever.
Now our current society, and current Prime Minister aren't great at that; instant gratification is much more our and his style. Tough luck. It's a tricky lesson we all need to learn.
As for return to normal, it's worth thinking what our society ought to continue with. Because personal hygiene was a bit rubbish in February 2020. One of the theories for why it took a while for total deaths to take off was that the improved handwashing reduced other illnesses. There are bound to be things we should have been doing, even without Covid. We've got a while to work out what.
"Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."
Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue? If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.
Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it
"the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."
Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit? If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.
To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.
So just because some clown does not like what you say or think in your own home , the police can come and burst your door down and arrest you for a hate crime. What kind of nutters are walking the streets.
Uh, no Malcolm, nothing like what I was saying. I was simply asking from a criminal point of view whether there's a difference between what is said and done at home versus what is done in public. I find your keenness to defend free speech... stirring, but if you read back you'll see that you got a bit overexcited about something you only imagined.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.
Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc
This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success
But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.
I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.
Maybe, but I've just been down in Cornwall where they were all terrified that the huge influx of holidaymakers after lockdown (and the surge was massive and prolonged, because most British tourists could or would not go abroad) would inevitably lead to a sharp rise in Covid cases in Cornwall.
Yet it hasn't happened at all. Cornwall is still almost Covid-free.
This virus is a bloody mysterious little bastard. It never behaves QUITE how you expect
It is interesting, because we know that the European getaway to sunny climbs has caused spread both in that country and across Europe. Maybe as the Cornish are always wary of the Grockles, they already have a built in mechanism to avoid the plague bringers.
It spreads eagerly when people mix indoors, but not outdoors. Most of the patterns we are seeing can be so explained. Where there has been spread arising from summer travel, it’s been to spots with lively nightlife.
I have no issue with either of them, but it's very hard to escape the conclusion that they (or Harry at least) wants all the attention of being royal with none of the intrusion. Which is something I imagine many people have sympathy with, but is also not what they want from their royals.
It doesn't help that Harry and Meghan are lecturing us on what awful racists we are, from a $10m mansion in sunny southern California, while we sit in the chilly drizzle listening to their bilge
They are only going to get more unpopular from here on. It is very sad. I predicted they would become like Edward and Mrs Simpson, quietly loathed by Brits as they partied in their Bahamas mansion, and so it is proving.
Harry has made a tragic error. She will divorce him in a few years.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.
Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc
This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success
But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.
I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.
Maybe, but I've just been down in Cornwall where they were all terrified that the huge influx of holidaymakers after lockdown (and the surge was massive and prolonged, because most British tourists could or would not go abroad) would inevitably lead to a sharp rise in Covid cases in Cornwall.
Yet it hasn't happened at all. Cornwall is still almost Covid-free.
This virus is a bloody mysterious little bastard. It never behaves QUITE how you expect
All makes perfect sense if you hypothesise that almost all transmission is via airborne transmission and inside. So schools, universities and households. And other non socially distanced indoor venues.
The current favoured forms of lockdowns/restrictions focus almost entirely on clamping down on the latter, leaving the former 3 untouched. Unlike March/April when only households were left untouched. Which in isolation isn't that much of a problem, because there is limited route that the virus can get in to any single household in absence of the other factors.
I was critical of allowing extensive overseas holidays without a quarantine system.
And I don’t think it will surprise anyone that I am deeply sceptical of efficacy of measures taken to protect people in schools.
But the first, with hindsight, was manageable, and the second was a necessary gamble even though it’s clearly not worked.
What remains crass, inexcusable and truly unforgivable was the failure to keep uni tuition online until at least the New Year.
"Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."
Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue? If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.
Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it
"the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."
Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit? If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.
To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.
Why don't we all have audiovisual bugs installed in every room of our houses then? They could livestream to the authorities 24 hours a day and make the detection of wrongthink so much easier...
For most people 1984 was a warning. For some people 1984 was an instruction manual.
My general view: if the authorities can, they will.
It's natural for any Government or authority to seek to expand its powers and reach, which is why there must always be a strong civil pushback and challenge.
It's the the same way all organisations and institutions, no matter their noble aims, invariably end up prioritising the preservation and defence of the organisation over those noble aims.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.
Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc
This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success
But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.
I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.
Maybe, but I've just been down in Cornwall where they were all terrified that the huge influx of holidaymakers after lockdown (and the surge was massive and prolonged, because most British tourists could or would not go abroad) would inevitably lead to a sharp rise in Covid cases in Cornwall.
Yet it hasn't happened at all. Cornwall is still almost Covid-free.
This virus is a bloody mysterious little bastard. It never behaves QUITE how you expect
It is interesting, because we know that the European getaway to sunny climbs has caused spread both in that country and across Europe. Maybe as the Cornish are always wary of the Grockles, they already have a built in mechanism to avoid the plague bringers.
It spreads eagerly when people mix indoors, but not outdoors. Most of the patterns we are seeing can be so explained. Where there has been spread arising from summer travel, it’s been to spots with lively nightlife.
Yes I think that's true. I also wonder about spending 2-3hrs in an airport with 1000s of other people, compared to going to Cornwall in your car.
I have no issue with either of them, but it's very hard to escape the conclusion that they (or Harry at least) wants all the attention of being royal with none of the intrusion. Which is something I imagine many people have sympathy with, but is also not what they want from their royals.
It doesn't help that Harry and Meghan are lecturing us on what awful racists we are, from a $10m mansion in sunny southern California, while we sit in the chilly drizzle listening to their bilge
They are only going to get more unpopular from here on. It is very sad. I predicted they would become like Edward and Mrs Simpson, quietly loathed by Brits as they partied in their Bahamas mansion, and so it is proving.
Harry has made a tragic error. She will divorce him in a few years.
There is also a blind item going around possibly concerning him at the moment, obviously cannot go into too many details here, probably best he stays out of the limelight now anyway and focuses on his family and charity work
I have no issue with either of them, but it's very hard to escape the conclusion that they (or Harry at least) wants all the attention of being royal with none of the intrusion. Which is something I imagine many people have sympathy with, but is also not what they want from their royals.
It doesn't help that Harry and Meghan are lecturing us on what awful racists we are, from a $10m mansion in sunny southern California, while we sit in the chilly drizzle listening to their bilge
They are only going to get more unpopular from here on. It is very sad. I predicted they would become like Edward and Mrs Simpson, quietly loathed by Brits as they partied in their Bahamas mansion, and so it is proving.
Harry has made a tragic error. She will divorce him in a few years.
No, they are lecturing us from the rented home that acts as a studio, near their $10m mansion.....
The differences between London compared to the peak (and to a lesser extent other areas in the south) and the rest of the country (including Scotland/Wales etc) is quite stark!
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.
Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc
This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success
But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.
I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.
Maybe, but I've just been down in Cornwall where they were all terrified that the huge influx of holidaymakers after lockdown (and the surge was massive and prolonged, because most British tourists could or would not go abroad) would inevitably lead to a sharp rise in Covid cases in Cornwall.
Yet it hasn't happened at all. Cornwall is still almost Covid-free.
This virus is a bloody mysterious little bastard. It never behaves QUITE how you expect
All makes perfect sense if you hypothesise that almost all transmission is via airborne transmission and inside. So schools, universities and households. And other non socially distanced indoor venues.
The current favoured forms of lockdowns/restrictions focus almost entirely on clamping down on the latter, leaving the former 3 untouched. Unlike March/April when only households were left untouched. Which in isolation isn't that much of a problem, because there is limited route that the virus can get in to any single household in absence of the other factors.
Looking back, one of the silliest wrong arguments that persisted for a long time was the idea that children couldn't catch or pass on the virus.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.
Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc
This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success
But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.
I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.
Maybe, but I've just been down in Cornwall where they were all terrified that the huge influx of holidaymakers after lockdown (and the surge was massive and prolonged, because most British tourists could or would not go abroad) would inevitably lead to a sharp rise in Covid cases in Cornwall.
Yet it hasn't happened at all. Cornwall is still almost Covid-free.
This virus is a bloody mysterious little bastard. It never behaves QUITE how you expect
It is interesting, because we know that the European getaway to sunny climbs has caused spread both in that country and across Europe. Maybe as the Cornish are always wary of the Grockles, they already have a built in mechanism to avoid the plague bringers.
It spreads eagerly when people mix indoors, but not outdoors. Most of the patterns we are seeing can be so explained. Where there has been spread arising from summer travel, it’s been to spots with lively nightlife.
Yes I think that's true. I also wonder about spending 2-3hrs in an airport with 1000s of other people, compared to going to Cornwall in your car.
For sure, air travel is a risk, likely both in airports and the inside the planes. Wasn’t there a study released just this week that showed as much?
I have thought this must be true since the spring, since the chances of holidaymakers to Italy and Spain both chancing upon and having prolonged indoor contact with the then handfuls (proportionately) of positive cases in those countries seemed way to small to explain the number of people flying back who contracted the virus.
Also note how Europe almost closed down air travel, and recovered from the first wave, whilst the US didn’t, and didn’t.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.
Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc
This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success
But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.
I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.
Brighton and Bournemouth don't seem to have a higher than average incidence of the virus, although of course it could be that people passed it to each other there before going back to their home areas, without necessarily causing a problem in those places themselves.
"Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."
Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue? If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.
Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it
"the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."
Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit? If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.
To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.
Why don't we all have audiovisual bugs installed in every room of our houses then? They could livestream to the authorities 24 hours a day and make the detection of wrongthink so much easier...
Congratulations, that there is one very effectively slain straw man. Now back to the question, should some crimes not be counted as crimes just because they happen in your living room? It's a genuine question.
The differences between London compared to the peak (and to a lesser extent other areas in the south) and the rest of the country (including Scotland/Wales etc) is quite stark!
Bloody hell at Wales, looks like they will hit the same peak as the first wave, despite not being able to buy clingfilm in Tescos.
Coming out of their firebreak with the numbers in hospital still very large is a big call.
Whatever happens with the litigation over late-received WI mail-in ballots, I think it's potential to impact the outcome is now very low. Return rates across the state, 6 days before the election, are already ranging from mid-60s% to mid-80s%: 1.132m out of the requested 1.426m mail-in ballots have already been returned (79.4%)
PS According to the State's website, WI has 3,583,804 active registered voters on October 1, 2020
I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats
For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)
Incidentally, the head to head figures are narrowing.
It seems not hugely unusual for French presidents to only get low to mid 20% or so in round 1. Chirac got just under 20% in 2002, didn't stop a stonking win.
Le Pen might well bump up further from 33% she got last time, which was more than the 18% her dad got in 2002, but it does seem hard for her to actually win.
For me , although there are lots of permutations, who wins the election will come down to two states, FL and PA. If Biden wins FL he's going to win, end of. If he loses, though there may be some ups and downs , I think it will come down to PA. I still think the national polls are reflecting more that Biden is doing better in places like TX and GA but I don't expect him to win either or NC. AZ I think he will. I am pretty confident he will win MI and WI but I have real doubts about PA, yes he's about 5% up but the mood music there seems so volatile. So I think if it comes down to PA (which I think it will as i suspect Trump will win FL just), we may have to wait a while to know who's won and can expect some shenanigans over postal votes. So much against my personal wishes I really can see Trump falling over the line, despite losing the popular vote by more than 2016 and only just getting past 270 this time. Now I need a stiff drink
This is my exact fear – and my forecast – although I think in that scenario, it ends up 269-269?
The one prediction I want to make is that I think Biden wins Georgia in almost all circumstances.
Well if that happens he is in the White House.
What makes you so confident?
(P.S. I share others' scepticism about a PA Biden win)
I think the failed (but slim) Stacey Abrams election attempt will drive further turnout in favour of the Dems.
Look at Fulton County - Atlanta - 344,876 votes so far. That’s 80% of the 2016 turnout already.
There is a plausible scenario whereby Biden underperforms in the rustbelt but arrives in the White House via the sunbelt.
I see Ladbrokes now have Trump favourite to win FL at 8/11
And as Florida goes, so goes the presidency, generally. But stop bothering people with facts.
That is simply not true, but then facts never really seem to impinge much on your world view. Biden could easily win whilst losing Florida
Sorry but this is balls, Florida has picked the winner since 1996, and almost every time before that. After Ohio it is the state that best represents the diversity, both economically and demographically, of the whole US. If your message has failed in Florida, it's really quite unlikely it will work in the other states you need to flip.
Ohio is going to be safe R, and Florida may not be far behind.
The point under discussion is that because Florida has generally voted for the winner Biden can't win if he loses Florida. That's absolute bollox.
Yes, Florida is far from essential for Biden which is just as well because I suspect he will lose it. In the past it has been pivotal but that honour belongs to Pennsylvania now. Difficult for either to win without PA although more so Trump than Biden. Nate S did a good piece on this:
My guess is that Biden will win with PA plus one or two from Ariz/Geo/Iowa/NC. That should do it because I just don't see Trump getting close in any of the States leaning more Biden's way than PA - i.e. Nev/Mic/Minn/Wisc etc. They are all looking pretty solid.
It therefore no longer looks to me a question of whether Biden wins, but by how much. I'm reckoning a modest distance, but it could easily stretch because Ariz/Geo etc are all on a knife edge.
And then there's always Texas!
Pretty much agree with that.
If Trump manages to win the Presidency again despite losing the popular vote the the GOP will have once won the popular vote only once in the last 8 contests. Any reasonable person would conclude that the system is broken. I think the GOP know they will struggle to win at the popular vote and so spend so much energy on surpressing their opponent's votes. The US really is moving into quasi-democracy status.
The American system is like our system - the national vote tally is a point of interest but isn't really relevant. The winning post in America is 270 electoral votes - the number of votes cast to secure those EC votes doesn't really matter much.
Its a stupid stupid system. But like the absurdities thrown up by our own First Past the Post you can;t say its broken.
I'll leave it to HYUFD to post and deal with the usual brickbats
For the sake of argument, Le Pen does better among young voters than the 65+ category, so it's possible they are picking up on something that other pollsters are missing. (Or at least it would be if they weren't making up the numbers.)
This was exactly the same as in 2016, Michigan, Colorado it didn't matter. Wherever Trafalgar did a poll with cross tabs the 18-24 would be breaking heavily for Trump.
Exit polls did not back this up.
The results however did back up Trafalgar having Trump ahead in Michigan and PA
Do you think Trump won the 18-24 year old demographic in those states?
In Michigan, which was Trump ended up winning by less than 12,000 votes, . Youth favored Hillary Clinton by over 230,000 votes (57% to 34%). I know Wisconsin was much closer if i recall, not sure about PA am sure HYUFD will find the figures if needed. What I do recall is even in states Trump won well in like OH the youth vote at best was 50/50 , nowhere was he wining in the kind of numbers on that poll. Thats not to say Trump cant win those states again but it wont be because 18-24s vote greatly more for him than Biden.
"Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."
Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue? If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.
Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it
"the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."
Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit? If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.
To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.
Why don't we all have audiovisual bugs installed in every room of our houses then? They could livestream to the authorities 24 hours a day and make the detection of wrongthink so much easier...
For most people 1984 was a warning. For some people 1984 was an instruction manual.
My general view: if the authorities can, they will.
It's natural for any Government or authority to seek to expand its powers and reach, which is why there must always be a strong civil pushback and challenge.
On the current numbers, Europe is utterly f**ked with this virus. (and that includes us).
Yet people are still insisting that we, with infection rates below other areas still getting it worse, have some form of immunity that will make it all go away completely any day now.
Sorry I thought Europe had it sorted. Europe locked down longest. Europe locked down hardest. Europe locked down smartest. Europe locked down maskiest.
And yet. Here we are
This time around though, the markets are much more sensitive to lockdown restrictions, because they have seen how lockdowns destroy economies. They have seen how two week lockdowns turn into six months ones over night. And they know, that even in the richer states, Europe has no effing money left.
By Friday, Europe could be looking at a full blown economic depression, lasting years, with all the accompanying woes. Enormous unemployment. serial unrest. Severe suppression of liberty. Disintegrating social fabric.
The cure is killing the patient.
The only type of lockdown that works is the sort they had in South Korea, China, etc, and that level of authoritarianism and compliance isn't possible in western societies.
The key isn't lockdown. The key is track and trace that works so that chains of infection are broken quickly. We simply cannot tolerate the level of ineptitude shown in that respect any more. It is no longer funny.
It seems that we cannot manage it. That is the depressing conclusion I hate to draw but am on the verge of.
No European, North American or Latin American country has "managed" this. Yet many Asian countries have. That is the true mystery.
The outlier of big developed "Western Style" countries that are plugged into the world transit system is Australia. They have most of the disadvantages of the European countries in regards to importing Covid (in fact much closer and better direct connections with ground zero) and several very large dense cities.
Australia unplugged itself from the world transit system in March. Residents are banned from going abroad, foreigners from visiting and the return to Australia of Australian nationals is limited by mandatory quarantine on arrival capacity. There are tens of thousands of Australians who want to go home, but can't.
Australia also closed the borders INTERNALLY: you were unable to get in and out of Western Australia from the Northern Territory, Tasmania was virtually sealed off, no one could cross from Vic to NSW etc
This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success
But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.
I think one of the mistakes the UK government made, which credit to Mr Tesco's can't sell oven gloves in Wales did, was not to restrict people unnecessary movements to within a few miles of home, especially as we released the lockdown. We really didn't need 100,000s of people piling down to Brighton and Bournemouth.
Maybe, but I've just been down in Cornwall where they were all terrified that the huge influx of holidaymakers after lockdown (and the surge was massive and prolonged, because most British tourists could or would not go abroad) would inevitably lead to a sharp rise in Covid cases in Cornwall.
Yet it hasn't happened at all. Cornwall is still almost Covid-free.
This virus is a bloody mysterious little bastard. It never behaves QUITE how you expect
It is interesting, because we know that the European getaway to sunny climbs has caused spread both in that country and across Europe. Maybe as the Cornish are always wary of the Grockles, they already have a built in mechanism to avoid the plague bringers.
It spreads eagerly when people mix indoors, but not outdoors. Most of the patterns we are seeing can be so explained. Where there has been spread arising from summer travel, it’s been to spots with lively nightlife.
Yes I think that's true. I also wonder about spending 2-3hrs in an airport with 1000s of other people, compared to going to Cornwall in your car.
For sure, air travel is a risk, likely both in airports and the inside the planes. Wasn’t there a study released just this week that showed as much?
I have thought this must be true since the spring, since the chances of holidaymakers to Italy and Spain both chancing upon and having prolonged indoor contact with the then handfuls (proportionately) of positive cases in those countries seemed way to small to explain the number of people flying back who contracted the virus.
Also note how Europe almost closed down air travel, and recovered from the first wave, whilst the US didn’t, and didn’t.
The decision by all nations to have a European summer holiday season was absolutely mental. All those months of lockdown and border closures and then you just encourage everybody from across Europe to travel in small metal tubes to intermingle with 1000s of others from every corner of Europe.
For me , although there are lots of permutations, who wins the election will come down to two states, FL and PA. If Biden wins FL he's going to win, end of. If he loses, though there may be some ups and downs , I think it will come down to PA. I still think the national polls are reflecting more that Biden is doing better in places like TX and GA but I don't expect him to win either or NC. AZ I think he will. I am pretty confident he will win MI and WI but I have real doubts about PA, yes he's about 5% up but the mood music there seems so volatile. So I think if it comes down to PA (which I think it will as i suspect Trump will win FL just), we may have to wait a while to know who's won and can expect some shenanigans over postal votes. So much against my personal wishes I really can see Trump falling over the line, despite losing the popular vote by more than 2016 and only just getting past 270 this time. Now I need a stiff drink
This is my exact fear – and my forecast – although I think in that scenario, it ends up 269-269?
The one prediction I want to make is that I think Biden wins Georgia in almost all circumstances.
Well if that happens he is in the White House.
What makes you so confident?
(P.S. I share others' scepticism about a PA Biden win)
I think the failed (but slim) Stacey Abrams election attempt will drive further turnout in favour of the Dems.
Look at Fulton County - Atlanta - 344,876 votes so far. That’s 80% of the 2016 turnout already.
There is a plausible scenario whereby Biden underperforms in the rustbelt but arrives in the White House via the sunbelt.
I see Ladbrokes now have Trump favourite to win FL at 8/11
And as Florida goes, so goes the presidency, generally. But stop bothering people with facts.
That is simply not true, but then facts never really seem to impinge much on your world view. Biden could easily win whilst losing Florida
Sorry but this is balls, Florida has picked the winner since 1996, and almost every time before that. After Ohio it is the state that best represents the diversity, both economically and demographically, of the whole US. If your message has failed in Florida, it's really quite unlikely it will work in the other states you need to flip.
Ohio is going to be safe R, and Florida may not be far behind.
The point under discussion is that because Florida has generally voted for the winner Biden can't win if he loses Florida. That's absolute bollox.
Yes, Florida is far from essential for Biden which is just as well because I suspect he will lose it. In the past it has been pivotal but that honour belongs to Pennsylvania now. Difficult for either to win without PA although more so Trump than Biden. Nate S did a good piece on this:
My guess is that Biden will win with PA plus one or two from Ariz/Geo/Iowa/NC. That should do it because I just don't see Trump getting close in any of the States leaning more Biden's way than PA - i.e. Nev/Mic/Minn/Wisc etc. They are all looking pretty solid.
It therefore no longer looks to me a question of whether Biden wins, but by how much. I'm reckoning a modest distance, but it could easily stretch because Ariz/Geo etc are all on a knife edge.
And then there's always Texas!
Pretty much agree with that.
If Trump manages to win the Presidency again despite losing the popular vote the the GOP will have once won the popular vote only once in the last 8 contests. Any reasonable person would conclude that the system is broken. I think the GOP know they will struggle to win at the popular vote and so spend so much energy on surpressing their opponent's votes. The US really is moving into quasi-democracy status.
The American system is like our system - the national vote tally is a point of interest but isn't really relevant. The winning post in America is 270 electoral votes - the number of votes cast to secure those EC votes doesn't really matter much.
Its a stupid stupid system. But like the absurdities thrown up by our own First Past the Post you can;t say its broken.
Justin Trudeau is PM of Canada despite losing the popular vote at the last election.
"Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said."
Can't read the whole article (£), but what's the issue? If someone issues a threat of violence against me because of my sexuality, does it matter that whether it's an in-law round the dinner table versus a stranger in a pub?
Read the entire Scottish Hate Crime bill, it is all-encompassing.
Even the Scottish POLICE don't like it
"the Scottish Police Federation has warned that the proposals would force officers to "police what people think or feel" which it says would "devastate the legitimacy of the police in the eyes of the public"."
Ok, I'm open to arguments about whether or not certain things should be judged a crime, and I'm not making a case either way. But I do rather think that threats ought to be taken seriously, I hope you agree with that bit? If you do, my question was whether it should make a difference that it's in a home versus in public.
To use an analogy (and I'm sorry it's such an evocative one, but it is the easiest one to hand), if a man forces a stranger into sex against their will, it's rape. If a man forces his spouse into sex against their will, it's still rape. It is perfectly legitimate, in fact necessary, for the law to extend into people's homes in at least some circumstances.
Why don't we all have audiovisual bugs installed in every room of our houses then? They could livestream to the authorities 24 hours a day and make the detection of wrongthink so much easier...
We already do, of course: almost every house now contains some smart device which can hear and record human conversation. If you don't have Alexa or Google Home you probably have Siri on your iPhone or Cortana on your computer or you can say "OK Google" to your Android device. And many of these also have cameres able to watch you 24/7
So the government just needs to hook up with Google, Amaazon, Apple etc, and there you are: 1984 has truly arrived.
Its amazing how everybody was totally fearful of ID cards, but perfectly happy to stream audio and video from inside their home to big tech companies. It isn't even as if Alexa or Google Home are even very good. I don't use them, because much easier just to use the remote.
The thing that is annoying with Alexa is just how often it starts responding when you haven't said "Alexa" or anything like it to summon it.
But the really creepy thing I've noticed is how often I've had a conversation discussing something, not searched online for it - and then start seeing adverts online for what we were talking about. Makes me think that my phone is eavesdropping on me and setting adverts based on that.
What sort of things as a matter of interest? - that you talk about and which then appear on your screen?
Comments
Every single one that they have published cross breaks for the 18-24 sample is prod Trump.
Just, amazing consistency.
New offences of "possessing inflammatory material" are also proposed which covers people who "have in their possession threatening, abusive or insulting material with a view to communicating the material to another person" - so, for example, you could argue (and some would) that lending one of Ian Fleming's very un-PC original James Bond novels to a friend was an offence.
Ironically, the bill abolishes the offence of blasphemy but simply introduces its new modern form.
The standouts the ABC poll and the Monmouth poll for Georgia .
Overall today’s state polling so far suggests somewhat of a disconnect with the national polls bar the YouGov which has an 11 point lead for Biden .
In terms of the mid west the spike in covid cases is coming at the worst time for Trump , the more this is in the news there the more people will be reminded of his disastrous response to the pandemic .
This must have been very helpful and explains, in part, their success
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-australia/australia-closes-internal-borders-to-capitalise-on-fall-in-new-coronavirus-cases-idUKKBN21K3JZ
But this is only possible in a massive country with widely dispersed populations and relatively few internal border crossings.
It's natural for any Government or authority to seek to expand its powers and reach, which is why there must always be a strong civil pushback and challenge.
1.5.
I think we have very good evidence from phase III trials but there's always a risk of a late catastrophic issue that scuppers it.
Aren't there 8 vaccines in PIII trials now that are scheduled to end before May? The odds that all 8 would fail seems slim - though I suppose there might be some correlation between them that makes it more likely.
Because... schools.
Throughout there has always been this talk of trade offs, about pubs opening vs schools closing etc, but is anyone really sure if this trade off actually exists? Especially if pubs are largely enforcing and people complying with the "single household" rules (i'm sure that boyfriends/girlfriends etc aren't, but then they wouldn't be anyway pub or no pub).
Or is the whole issue really just... schools? And if schools stay open and children continue to mix (as they inevitably will, both outside and inside) then might the lockdowns just not make any material difference?
Me, I wouldn't mind being watched 24/7 but with one very important proviso - that everybody else was too. Including you.
https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/117621-Rapport-T1s.pdf
If there's any efficacy to the vaccine then simply rolling it out at care homes (which can be done reasonably rapidly) will make a tremendous difference on figures and risks of hospital capacity.
The positivity rate for close contacts of a positive case in a school is less than 3%. The positivity rate for close contacts of a positive case elsewhere is 10%.
This suggests that the virus is much less likely to spread within schools than elsewhere.
Le Pen can't win Round 2.
If there is no vaccine, Australia will have to keep the borders closed, AND do statewide lockdowns once again when the virus spreads again - as it inevitably will. And on and on and on. Forever?
That is NOT sustainable, economically, even for a very wealthy, isolated nation like Oz.
Melenchon won 18 to 24s 30% to 21% for Le Pen, 18% for Macron and 9% for Fillon so the comparison does not really follow
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election
Exit polls did not back this up.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JUtEW3UCKQi33nZ8hYdItUZ2w_aIIUTk/view
I still giggle that he gave the figures to 2 decimal places.
2 Decimal places on a sub sample. FFS.
Germany
Russia
Portugal
Greece
Lithuania
Serbia
Romania
Iran
Turkey
Poland
Ukraine
Czechia
There may be some I have missed.
'Non-urgent surgery has been suspended at Airedale Hospital for two weeks, it's been confirmed.
The hospital, near Keighley, is seeing "increased demand" which means its in-patient beds are at capacity, according to Airedale NHS Foundation Trust, which runs the site.
In a statement, the trust says: "We have taken the decision to postpone any elective surgery that needs an overnight stay.
"This comes into effect immediately, for the next two weeks. Urgent and emergency cases and cancer surgery will be carrying on as normal."'
But if we can see an end to regions going into Tier 3 - and more regions going from Tier 3 to Tier 2 instead, or Tier 2 to Tier 1 instead etc - then that would be progress.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8889559/Three-FDA-approved-drugs-prevent-coronavirus-infection-revealed-lab-grown-mini-lungs.html
If Trump manages to win the Presidency again despite losing the popular vote the the GOP will have once won the popular vote only once in the last 8 contests. Any reasonable person would conclude that the system is broken. I think the GOP know they will struggle to win at the popular vote and so spend so much energy on surpressing their opponent's votes. The US really is moving into quasi-democracy status.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/10/27/were-in-hell-russias-second-wave-of-covid-19-is-catching-the-regions-off-guard-a71851
Medics in hospitals across Russia voiced frustration that authorities failed to use the summer respite to prepare for a second coronavirus wave.
“People were told every day that the virus is defeated and that life is back to normal. Slowly but surely it crept back in. This time, the virus has a wider reach across all ages and social classes,” Vlassov said, adding that while Russians were afraid of the virus in spring, now it is harder to urge them to take precautions.
Medics working in hospitals across Russia’s regions described severe shortages of hospital beds and medical staff. Many voiced their frustration that mistakes made during the first crisis in spring were being repeated, and that authorities had failed to use the summer respite to adequately prepare.
“We knew it was coming, yet we were caught off guard anyway,” said Alexei, a surgeon working at the Infectious Disease Hospital in Elista, the capital of the republic of Kalmykia. He declined to give his surname.
Yet it hasn't happened at all. Cornwall is still almost Covid-free.
This virus is a bloody mysterious little bastard. It never behaves QUITE how you expect
The current favoured forms of lockdowns/restrictions focus almost entirely on clamping down on the latter, leaving the former 3 untouched. Unlike March/April when only households were left untouched. Which in isolation isn't that much of a problem, because there is limited route that the virus can get in to any single household in absence of the other factors.
Now our current society, and current Prime Minister aren't great at that; instant gratification is much more our and his style. Tough luck. It's a tricky lesson we all need to learn.
As for return to normal, it's worth thinking what our society ought to continue with. Because personal hygiene was a bit rubbish in February 2020. One of the theories for why it took a while for total deaths to take off was that the improved handwashing reduced other illnesses. There are bound to be things we should have been doing, even without Covid. We've got a while to work out what.
I find your keenness to defend free speech... stirring, but if you read back you'll see that you got a bit overexcited about something you only imagined.
They are only going to get more unpopular from here on. It is very sad. I predicted they would become like Edward and Mrs Simpson, quietly loathed by Brits as they partied in their Bahamas mansion, and so it is proving.
Harry has made a tragic error. She will divorce him in a few years.
And I don’t think it will surprise anyone that I am deeply sceptical of efficacy of measures taken to protect people in schools.
But the first, with hindsight, was manageable, and the second was a necessary gamble even though it’s clearly not worked.
What remains crass, inexcusable and truly unforgivable was the failure to keep uni tuition online until at least the New Year.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=Wales
The differences between London compared to the peak (and to a lesser extent other areas in the south) and the rest of the country (including Scotland/Wales etc) is quite stark!
I have thought this must be true since the spring, since the chances of holidaymakers to Italy and Spain both chancing upon and having prolonged indoor contact with the then handfuls (proportionately) of positive cases in those countries seemed way to small to explain the number of people flying back who contracted the virus.
Also note how Europe almost closed down air travel, and recovered from the first wave, whilst the US didn’t, and didn’t.
Now back to the question, should some crimes not be counted as crimes just because they happen in your living room? It's a genuine question.
Coming out of their firebreak with the numbers in hospital still very large is a big call.
PS According to the State's website, WI has 3,583,804 active registered voters on October 1, 2020
Le Pen might well bump up further from 33% she got last time, which was more than the 18% her dad got in 2002, but it does seem hard for her to actually win.
Its a stupid stupid system. But like the absurdities thrown up by our own First Past the Post you can;t say its broken.
Winner:
Biden 1.51
Trump 2.94
Popular vote:
Biden 1.16
Trump 6.8
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441
What I do recall is even in states Trump won well in like OH the youth vote at best was 50/50 , nowhere was he wining in the kind of numbers on that poll. Thats not to say Trump cant win those states again but it wont be because 18-24s vote greatly more for him than Biden.
https://twitter.com/agcolehamilton/status/1321427182141480961?s=21