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YouGov finds that if given the chance Britain would overwhelmingly vote Trump out – politicalbetting
YouGov finds that if given the chance Britain would overwhelmingly vote Trump out – politicalbetting.com
With just six days to go until the US Election, a YouGov poll commissioned by Betfair finds 80% of those in the UK that expressed a preference would pick Biden. Just 20% would vote Trump.
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Please let the Guardian run a campaign for all its highly educated, ethical, thoughtful readers to write individually to US voters to educate them in how they should vote in a non-patronising manner. Just like the tone of everyhing else there.
I believe they can get the voting register as a public document?
Clark County, say.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/oct/18/uselections2004.usa2
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2004/11/a-crazy-british-plot-to-help-kerry.html
@NickPalmer While Cyclewise will give you a lot of reasons for not using Revolut as it's a personal rather than business approach I would be using Revolut for the same purpose and from there transfer the money into Sterling and then to First Direct. I really wouldn't be using First Direct or HSBC for overseas transactions I've seen the charges and there is often a 2%+ surcharge hidden within their current exchange rate when I compared it to Revolut.
But this poll doesn't suggest we would be a "swing state" as we'd be safer for Biden than, say, California. Indeed, we'd be such a large state (getting on for 100 EVs) that the election wouldn't be anywhere near close.
Biden 54% (-)
Trump 43% (+1)
Changes from yesterday.
As well as amongst Leave and Tory voters Trump gets his highest voteshare in the UK in Northern Ireland at 28%, followed by Yorkshire and Humber at 26% and by Wales at 23%. Biden does best in Scotland where he gets 88%, the North East where he gets 84% and the South West where he gets 83%.
https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-election-britain-would-vote-trump-out-of-the-white-house-if-given-a-vote-261020-51.html?amp=1
https://www.theengineer.co.uk/breath-test-covid-19-loughborough-university/
Anybody surprised?
Beto O’Rourke Has Some Final Advice for the Biden Campaign
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/28/joe-biden-texas-2020-433088
https://twitter.com/jeremyherb/status/1321433411748286465
To get a majority of the ECVs again he needs to repeat that trick but that is about as plausible as lightning striking the same tree in a forest twice. There is simply no room for error from Trump - if he doesn't hold onto 100% of his votes from last time, if Biden gains extra votes over Clinton last time - then Trump needs to win new votes over and there doesn't seem to be any effort whatsoever into winning new votes into the Trump column.
Without new votes for Trump, he is out.
Given the polls and the turnout figures now I reckon Trump's chances of winning are about the same as rolling snake eyes on a pair of dice.
* Oh, wait...
While Wisconsin looks lost for him now, even Trafalgar has Biden ahead there, Michigan for example looks a better prospect for him, the ABC poll today has Michigan voters trusting Trump on the economy more than Biden 48% to 44% for example, in Wisconsin voters trust Biden on the economy by 52% to 44% for Trump.
In Michigan suburban voters still favour Trump by 49% to 46% for Biden, in Wisconsin by contrast suburban voters favour Biden over Trump 56% to 44%.
Non college educated whites in Michigan favour Trump by 56% to 38% for Biden, in Wisconsin they favour Biden by 49% to 48%
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/covid-surge-hurts-trump-wisconsin-biden-leads-closer/story?id=73834112
Trump won the District by 10 and the GOP Congressmen won it by 24.
No cross breaks available.
More like rolling an 11 or 12 imho.
1 in 12.
Not impossible, but I don't fancy his chances at all.
How can anybody predict anything from that? For me that's an alarming low number. Biden needs to get his guys in early, right?
They ain;t showing up on election day.
America
Great Britain
Again
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523076-democrats-see-signs-of-hidden-biden-voters-flipping-from-gop
The Hill has a definite (though not outrageous) Republican slant; if they're reporting it, it's real.
How many shy Biden voters there are, no one knows.
Really, Lord North needs nudging up the league table above Cammo, May and Bozo.
What proportion of Leavers are thick xenophobes? This is the question one could never answer with confidence before this survey but now we can.
"Trump does better with those who voted Leave in the referendum with 38% going for the incumbent."
Viola. A mere 38% of the 17.4m. Not quite 2 in every 5. So there are only of the order 6.6m thick xenophobes in the whole country who voted Leave in 2016. Meaning that 10.8m of those who voted Leave - a clear majority - are NOT thick xenophobes.
So let this be an end to it. It might be a bitter pill to swallow for Remainers such as myself but it's definitive.
Also from the Hill and curiously not mentioned by NigelB
That's simple maths - the pool of people who will not have voted by election day will include more Democrats than in areas with a lot of early voting.
Similarly, Republican turnout will be much higher as a percentage of postal votes in Oregon than elsewhere in the country... because Oregon is postal-only.
Most repubs say they will vote on election day.
So in general, is it better for the dems if
1. the pre election day vote percentage as a total is big
or
2. the pre election day vote percentage as a total is small
A few days ago I had it as him rolling an 11 or 12 on two dice. One in twelve.
Today I'd downgrade it to Biden rolling snake eyes. One in thirty six.
Quite simply time is up. Nothing has changed poll wise from a fortnight ago but that is good news for Biden - most voters have already voted now. Plus the claimed enthusiasm gap' or voter suppression issues aren't happening, turnout is going to be high. So that's closed down a couple of the paths I had thought could lead to Trump winning.
Now we are simply in catastrophic polling error territory. Late swing, suppression and enthusiasm can't save Trump only something catastrophically wrong in his direction can do and I'd put the odds of that as less than 5%. Hence snake eyes.
Ohio is going to be safe R, and Florida may not be far behind.
I've said before that the Hill is a decent news source, but that their opinion pieces are almost invariably crap.
Why would I post them ?
It is understood that pubs, bars and other venues will be forced to close across the east Midlands county from Friday.
Parts of Wales (Caerffili) have been in lockdown since 8 Sept. The cases in Wales continue to rise & Drakeford imposes ever more severe lockdowns with an increasingly irrational set of rules.
For example, while "non-essential goods" cannot be sold in supermarkets, nonetheless Cardiff Airport remains open. (The massively loss-making Cardiff Airport is owned by the Welsh Government). It is perfectly fine to leave lockdown areas to travel to Cardiff Airport & get on an airplane.
Only Drakeford could end up with banning the sale of Playdough but permitting international air travel in a Time Of Coronavirus.
Front page of the BBC News site...Lily Allen talks about wanking.
https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-54712504
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-that-new-wisconsin-poll-that-has-biden-way-ahead/
Get out the champagne Boris! What about a bank holiday?
My main worry is that Biden loses Texas, Georgia and Arizona by less than 1%. Trump hangs on to enough of those he took last time by similar margins to win the EC with an even larger popular vote deficit (Which evidence seems to bake in).
It's unlikely to fall so perfectly, but not impossible.
It's like trying to compare TX mail voting with other states mail voting.
'While Wisconsin looks lost for him now, even Trafalgar has Biden ahead there, Michigan for example looks a better prospect for him, the ABC poll today has Michigan voters trusting Trump on the economy more than Biden 48% to 44% for example, in Wisconsin voters trust Biden on the economy by 52% to 44% for Trump.
In Michigan suburban voters still favour Trump by 49% to 46% for Biden, in Wisconsin by contrast suburban voters favour Biden over Trump 56% to 44%.
Non college educated whites in Michigan favour Trump by 56% to 38% for Biden, in Wisconsin they favour Biden by 49% to 48%'
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/covid-surge-hurts-trump-wisconsin-biden-leads-closer/story?id=73834112
The Democrats have been warning about the Feds attempts to interfere with the mail voting for ages and have been warning to ensure people vote and get counted. So where are you getting claims that Democrats won't be voting in person from? They have been across the country.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1321451116320722950?s=20
https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1321454134785028097
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1321442438515478528
https://twitter.com/Atul_Gawande/status/1321408834330677249
'While Wisconsin looks lost for him now, even Trafalgar has Biden ahead there, Michigan for example looks a better prospect for him, the ABC poll today has Michigan voters trusting Trump on the economy more than Biden 48% to 44% for example, in Wisconsin voters trust Biden on the economy by 52% to 44% for Trump.
In Michigan suburban voters still favour Trump by 49% to 46% for Biden, in Wisconsin by contrast suburban voters favour Biden over Trump 56% to 44%.
Non college educated whites in Michigan favour Trump by 56% to 38% for Biden, in Wisconsin they favour Biden by 49% to 48%'
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/covid-surge-hurts-trump-wisconsin-biden-leads-closer/story?id=73834112
Colorado was a pretty strong Republican state, and voted for Bob Dole in his heavy defeat in 1996... it subsequently shifted to became the tipping point state in 2008 AND 2012, and has moved far enough that it's unlikely to be competitive this year or for a while.
A run since 1996 in a state which continues to be fairly finely balanced isn't at all surprising, particularly when three of those elections (1996, 2008 and 2012) weren't all that close. Florida is still competitive, but has tended to move a little towards the GOP this century in various levels of election. Ditto Ohio. Other states have got bluer, and some that weren't all that competitive now are.
Rhetorical so thanks in advance.
1,451,462 have already voted
37% in the poll say they have voted
That means the Likely Voter screen says a total turnout of 4 million people
Wisconsin only has 3,583,804 voters total.
DANGER WILL ROBINSON DANGER.
I bet on Trump to win the EC in 2016, this year I'm steering clear of all president markets. If I had faith in US democracy in 2020, I'd be all in on Biden.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/bidens-path-270-widens-trumps-path-narrows-texas-moves-toss
(The whole article is well worth a read).
The gap between the forecasting sites/pundits and the betting markets is becoming a chasm.
More and more areas are going to be like that. The inevitable leakage across the age ranges has been occurring. Hospitalisations are likely to increase even if overall infection rates start to fall, because that will conceal a multitude. We need the infection rates in these demographics to start coming down.
Michigan is closer but I'm still confident Biden's winning there, its PA or bust for me for Biden. I know he has other potential routes without it but as I posted earlier I think he will be close in the sun belt states but not enough to take him home without PA as well.
What about if Biden wins a narrow EC victory?
If Biden wins I for one will be delighted to admit I was wrong to forecast a Trump win.
That's as long as the US War of Independence didn't simply happen later when slavery is abolished...
Only where there isn't a vote-by-mail option are they turning up in large numbers for IPEV. The Dems have been pushing voters to mail their votes the whole campaign.
And by the way there is form of vote-by-mail in Pennsylvania this year, you can request mail ballots and drop them off, as has been discussed on here before. It's not just absentee ballots this year.
...In an analysis of polling errors in 2016 and 2018, my colleague David Wasserman wrote this week that polls in the Southwest "undershot Democrats' final margin in 17 of 19 cases, including by an average of 1.4 points in 2016 and 4.2 points in 2018."...
None of the states you mention are particularly representative of the nation. They may have streaks of picking the winner, but that really is more down to local factors, or specific trends in national politics.
cellular telephone interviews Oct. 20-25, 2020"
when the early voting was, er, much lower.