No, there is a narrow route for Trump. If he wins though, America is done. 4 more years of the egotistical crook will do irrevocable harm.
No it isn't, America is still the largest economy with the largest military on earth, Trump's win would be no more different than other populist nationalists who have been elected to lead their nations at present, from Bolsonaro in Brazil to Modi in India, to Netanyahu in Israel to Duda in Poland and Putin in Russia or Duherte in the Philippinnes and maybe in a few years Salvini in Italy.
In fact some on here would also put Boris in that bracket in the UK too
I don’t the Foxy was referring to the size of its economy, so much as the democratic experiment of the last two and a half centuries.
Not sure that follows either, unless democracy only works if it produces results that appease educated liberals
I don’t think that was his point, either. If you believe a re-elected Trump would pose no threat to the constitution in his second term of office, then we’ll have to agree to differ.
The separation of powers by the very nature of the US constitution gives the US President even with a big election win fewer powers than a UK PM with a big majority in the Commons
Except you would have a 6-3 Supreme Court with a right wing majority, whose members have been advancing an extremely broad view of Executive power for quite some time.
With that latest Siena College/NYT Montana Poll the Nightmare scenario becomes ever more plausible.
Trump won Montana by 21 points. The Siena poll puts Biden with 6. On UNS Biden should only be within 12.
If Trump wins it will be with Biden coming pointlessly close in numerous Deep Red states.
Combined with landslide Biden wins in California and New York and a closer result in Texas while Trump scrapes home in Michigan, Florida, Iowa and Arizona and North Carolina to narrowly win the EC even despite being 3-4% behind Biden in the national popular vote
Yes, Biden only has a 47% chance of winning the electoral college if he's 3% ahead but apparently has a 90%+ chance if he's 6% ahead.
Psychologically it's still feels hard to see Biden losing the electoral college though if he gets anything over 50% though as opposed to the 48.4% and 48.2% that Gore and Clinton got.
Have just seen what Patel tweeted. Hahahahahaha - she really is an utter moron.
PB Tories already ignored it. Imagine if Dianne Abbott had tweeted the same
It's not ignoring it, it's more out of respect for Mike, PBers as a general rule err on the side of caution when it comes to something that might get Mike into trouble.
I don't want to comment on the detail. Just roar with laughter.
Have just seen what Patel tweeted. Hahahahahaha - she really is an utter moron.
PB Tories already ignored it. Imagine if Dianne Abbott had tweeted the same
It's not ignoring it, it's more out of respect for Mike, PBers as a general rule err on the side of caution when it comes to something that might get Mike into trouble.
See how PB as a general rule avoided the Alex Salmond stuff from the moment he was charged until the actual trial.
That’s fair enough but nobody else has said the same as their reasons. There would be no such attitude if it was a Labour MP as I said.
PB Tories no comment at all, I wonder how quick they would be on it if it was a Labour MP
First, I don't think there are any PB Tories any more. Secondly, nobody knows what this is about and you are not allowed to tell us. Thirdly, what the story is truly about is the pompous idiocy of the jury system. OT1H the randomers on the jury are supposed to have the intelligence, integrity, independence and soundness of judgment to convict defendants, or not, on charges which can lead to life imprisonment. OTO, if we have an instance of Priti being a twat on twitter, the option of saying "You probably never saw this but if you did it's just Priti being a twat on twitter, ignore it and carry on" is not available, because it seems jurors lack the intelligence, integrity, independence and soundness of judgment to understand and follow that advice. So which is it?
Imagine Dianne Abbott had said the same thing. Would you be saying the same thing, of course not.
And no more PB Tories? Hahahahaha
I don't know what "the same thing" is, you absolute beneficiary of my unwavering policy of never in any circumstances calling other people morons on the internet.
Just so everyone knows, there's an absolute deluge of low quality blatantly partisan republican polling being released right now.
I'm not talking about lean R respectable pollsters such as St Pete, HarrisX, IBD and even Rasmussen.
Just saw this after I posted my thoughts on two new polls i'd not seen before so I'm assuming they are part of those, but when you say blatantly partisan, is that based on their results purely? or something more substantial?
No, there is a narrow route for Trump. If he wins though, America is done. 4 more years of the egotistical crook will do irrevocable harm.
No it isn't, America is still the largest economy with the largest military on earth, Trump's win would be no more different than other populist nationalists who have been elected to lead their nations at present, from Bolsonaro in Brazil to Modi in India, to Netanyahu in Israel to Duda in Poland and Putin in Russia or Duherte in the Philippinnes and maybe in a few years Salvini in Italy.
In fact some on here would also put Boris in that bracket in the UK too
I don’t the Foxy was referring to the size of its economy, so much as the democratic experiment of the last two and a half centuries.
Not sure that follows either, unless democracy only works if it produces results that appease educated liberals
I don’t think that was his point, either. If you believe a re-elected Trump would pose no threat to the constitution in his second term of office, then we’ll have to agree to differ.
The separation of powers by the very nature of the US constitution gives the US President even with a big election win fewer powers than a UK PM with a big majority in the Commons
Except you would have a 6-3 Supreme Court with a right wing majority, whose members have been advancing an extremely broad view of Executive power for quite some time.
There would still be a Democratic House and GOP rebels like Romney in the Senate, the GOP would need to win back the House too and expand its majority in the Senate for Trump to rule largely unfettered and even then the Constitution prevents him running for a third term
Have just seen what Patel tweeted. Hahahahahaha - she really is an utter moron.
PB Tories already ignored it. Imagine if Dianne Abbott had tweeted the same
It's not ignoring it, it's more out of respect for Mike, PBers as a general rule err on the side of caution when it comes to something that might get Mike into trouble.
I was about to comment that inviting people to comment on a tweet that is not apparent in a trial that is sub judice is the height of irresponsibility
No, there is a narrow route for Trump. If he wins though, America is done. 4 more years of the egotistical crook will do irrevocable harm.
No it isn't, America is still the largest economy with the largest military on earth, Trump's win would be no more different than other populist nationalists who have been elected to lead their nations at present, from Bolsonaro in Brazil to Modi in India, to Netanyahu in Israel to Duda in Poland and Putin in Russia or Duherte in the Philippinnes and maybe in a few years Salvini in Italy.
In fact some on here would also put Boris in that bracket in the UK too
I don’t the Foxy was referring to the size of its economy, so much as the democratic experiment of the last two and a half centuries.
Yes. Abuse of process on a Zimbabwean scale winning an election (though almost certainly losing the Popular Vote) is not something that can revert to normal speedily.
It is not a matter of right vs left. I don't think Romney would have done so much damage.
As an aside, you could probably kiss goodbye to the scientific independence of the FDA, too.
A really striking difference in voting numbers. Is it something that happens here?
Back in 2012-14 there was a bit of a gender gap when it came to Scottish independence.
Women were much more reticent to back independence than men.
One thing that I have noticed in UK polling is that Women are twice as likely as men to be undecided, but do turn out on the day, breaking more for Labour.
In polling I've seen over decades, very typical for women to be more undecided than men, whatever the jurisdiction or the election.
The tendency to see parties akin to sports teams that you support come what may is perhaps one with a gender bias to it.
Interesting point, though do NOT think that is real X factor in this particular gender gap, as it also occurs in less- or totally non-partisan elections.
AND based on my own observations, think increasing numbers of women (at least in US) are sports fans AND loyal to their favorite teams.
One small point of evidence: check out King Co Elections webcam for their Election Services Center, which directly assists voters in person. One of the workers helping voters is wearing her Seattle Seahawks jersey.
For today is Blue Friday for "the 12s" before this Sunday's NFL game between Seattle (5-0) and Arizona Cardinals (4-2)
Go Hawks!
I'm playing Metcalfe in my flex spot this week. Did you see Daniel Jones' drive from last night ?
England was only created by combining Wessex, Northumbria and Mercia, without Northumbria there is no England
You’re forgetting:
1) East Anglia
2) Eadward the Elder took the title of King of England following his suppression of his cousin’s kingdom of Mercia in 918.
His son Athelstan is generally accepted as the First King of England as he took over Northumbria via marriage of his daughter to the Northumbrian King who died before him, without Northumbria then you are just left with Wessex and Mercia, not England.
Edward the Elder took the title of King of the Anglo Saxons rather than King of England as such
Why do all those UK freedom lovers not quite ancient enough to remember what WWII was actually like hearken back fondly to this period of extreme government control?
Have just seen what Patel tweeted. Hahahahahaha - she really is an utter moron.
PB Tories already ignored it. Imagine if Dianne Abbott had tweeted the same
It's not ignoring it, it's more out of respect for Mike, PBers as a general rule err on the side of caution when it comes to something that might get Mike into trouble.
See how PB as a general rule avoided the Alex Salmond stuff from the moment he was charged until the actual trial.
Can see (and share I think) CHB's point about substance, however agree more with TSE's regarding prudence re: niceties (and not-so-niceties) of British libel law.
At least until OGH is willing & able to set up shop in the Bedfordshire Free State or East Cornwall Co-Prosperity Sphere.
A right wing historian and from time to time opinion journalist.
Thanks but he is not on my radar
You’re not missing much. Man’s an arrogant twat.
It’s generally believed in academia that he hasn’t written anything since his PhD as he forces his research assistants to write under his name.
His economics is very strong. The Ascent of Money and Empire were both good reads in that respect. His politics are a bit more flaky and controversial. He has a nice writing style.
Have just seen what Patel tweeted. Hahahahahaha - she really is an utter moron.
PB Tories already ignored it. Imagine if Dianne Abbott had tweeted the same
It's not ignoring it, it's more out of respect for Mike, PBers as a general rule err on the side of caution when it comes to something that might get Mike into trouble.
I was about to comment that inviting people to comment on a tweet that is not apparent in a trial that is sub judice is the height of irresponsibility
I am pleased that you have asserted much the same
The height of irresponsibility was Patel's tweet.
If she had any sense of honour or decency she'd resign.
Why is it most PBers know not to comment like that on a trial, but the Secretary of State for the Home Department does not?
PB Tories no comment at all, I wonder how quick they would be on it if it was a Labour MP
First, I don't think there are any PB Tories any more. Secondly, nobody knows what this is about and you are not allowed to tell us. Thirdly, what the story is truly about is the pompous idiocy of the jury system. OT1H the randomers on the jury are supposed to have the intelligence, integrity, independence and soundness of judgment to convict defendants, or not, on charges which can lead to life imprisonment. OTO, if we have an instance of Priti being a twat on twitter, the option of saying "You probably never saw this but if you did it's just Priti being a twat on twitter, ignore it and carry on" is not available, because it seems jurors lack the intelligence, integrity, independence and soundness of judgment to understand and follow that advice. So which is it?
Imagine Dianne Abbott had said the same thing. Would you be saying the same thing, of course not.
And no more PB Tories? Hahahahaha
I don't know what "the same thing" is, you absolute beneficiary of my unwavering policy of never in any circumstances calling other people morons on the internet.
There’s no need to be rude.
I am talking about Priti Patel’s Tweet.
Well, the remark I was replying to suggested I was A. a PB Tory and B. applying double standards to a question, so if there's no need to be rude I assume you are doing it just for the hell of it.
Again: I do not know what Patel's tweet said. This is because the tweet has been deleted, as I understand it, as being potentially in contempt of court, and nobody is allowed to tell me what it said without also being potentially in contempt of court. Clear now?
England was only created by combining Wessex, Northumbria and Mercia, without Northumbria there is no England
You’re forgetting:
1) East Anglia
2) Eadward the Elder took the title of King of England following his suppression of his cousin’s kingdom of Mercia in 918.
His son Athelstan is generally accepted as the First King of England, without Northumbria then you are just left with Wessex and Mercia, not England
I’m not talking about ‘who is considered’ the first king of England. I’m pointing out that it was both a process and you had forgotten a fairly significant chunk of it.
Just a thought Hyufd, but you would be an awful lot more popular if you admitted when you got something wrong. Especially since you frequently are wrong.
Why do all those UK freedom lovers not quite ancient enough to remember what WWII was actually like hearken back fondly to this period of extreme government control?
With that latest Siena College/NYT Montana Poll the Nightmare scenario becomes ever more plausible.
Trump won Montana by 21 points. The Siena poll puts Biden with 6. On UNS Biden should only be within 12.
If Trump wins it will be with Biden coming pointlessly close in numerous Deep Red states.
Combined with landslide Biden wins in California and New York and a closer result in Texas while Trump scrapes home in Michigan, Florida, Iowa and Arizona and North Carolina to narrowly win the EC even despite being 3-4% behind Biden in the national popular vote.
Add the 'undecideds' with Siena to Trump and he would indeed be just 3% behind Biden nationally, within range of a narrow EC victory
No, the nightmare scenario isn't Biden losing with a 4 point national lead - that's completely run of the mill. The Nightmare Scenario is Biden losing with a 10 point national lead.
No, there is a narrow route for Trump. If he wins though, America is done. 4 more years of the egotistical crook will do irrevocable harm.
No it isn't, America is still the largest economy with the largest military on earth, Trump's win would be no more different than other populist nationalists who have been elected to lead their nations at present, from Bolsonaro in Brazil to Modi in India, to Netanyahu in Israel to Duda in Poland and Putin in Russia or Duherte in the Philippinnes and maybe in a few years Salvini in Italy.
In fact some on here would also put Boris in that bracket in the UK too
Boris Johnson, posing as a populist. Would a populist really want to starve northern kids so they'll fit up chimneys? (To be fair to Boris, this reeks of Gove & Cummings who have form taking on Jamie Oliver 10 years ago over school dinners.)
On that you maybe right, even Farage has had a go at Boris over free school meals
A right wing historian and from time to time opinion journalist.
Thanks but he is not on my radar
You’re not missing much. Man’s an arrogant twat.
It’s generally believed in academia that he hasn’t written anything since his PhD as he forces his research assistants to write under his name.
His economics is very strong. The Ascent of Money and Empire were both good reads in that respect. His politics are a bit more flaky and controversial. He has a nice writing style.
But he didn’t actually write either of those books, David. That is the core of the problem.
Anyway, my iPad’s battery is exhausted, and so am I. Have a good evening.
PB Tories no comment at all, I wonder how quick they would be on it if it was a Labour MP
First, I don't think there are any PB Tories any more. Secondly, nobody knows what this is about and you are not allowed to tell us. Thirdly, what the story is truly about is the pompous idiocy of the jury system. OT1H the randomers on the jury are supposed to have the intelligence, integrity, independence and soundness of judgment to convict defendants, or not, on charges which can lead to life imprisonment. OTO, if we have an instance of Priti being a twat on twitter, the option of saying "You probably never saw this but if you did it's just Priti being a twat on twitter, ignore it and carry on" is not available, because it seems jurors lack the intelligence, integrity, independence and soundness of judgment to understand and follow that advice. So which is it?
Imagine Dianne Abbott had said the same thing. Would you be saying the same thing, of course not.
And no more PB Tories? Hahahahaha
I don't know what "the same thing" is, you absolute beneficiary of my unwavering policy of never in any circumstances calling other people morons on the internet.
There’s no need to be rude.
I am talking about Priti Patel’s Tweet.
Well, the remark I was replying to suggested I was A. a PB Tory and B. applying double standards to a question, so if there's no need to be rude I assume you are doing it just for the hell of it.
Again: I do not know what Patel's tweet said. This is because the tweet has been deleted, as I understand it, as being potentially in contempt of court, and nobody is allowed to tell me what it said without also being potentially in contempt of court. Clear now?
I never said or suggested you were a PB Tory. You replied to a post not directed at you and even then I never said you were one. So first of all you're wrong.
With that latest Siena College/NYT Montana Poll the Nightmare scenario becomes ever more plausible.
Trump won Montana by 21 points. The Siena poll puts Biden with 6. On UNS Biden should only be within 12.
If Trump wins it will be with Biden coming pointlessly close in numerous Deep Red states.
Combined with landslide Biden wins in California and New York and a closer result in Texas while Trump scrapes home in Michigan, Florida, Iowa and Arizona and North Carolina to narrowly win the EC even despite being 3-4% behind Biden in the national popular vote
Yes, Biden only has a 47% chance of winning the electoral college if he's 3% ahead but apparently has a 90%+ chance if he's 6% ahead.
Psychologically it's still feels hard to see Biden losing the electoral college though if he gets anything over 50% though as opposed to the 48.4% and 48.2% that Gore and Clinton got.
Though remember in the 1876 election the Democratic candidate Tilden got 50.9% of the national popular vote and the GOP candidate Hayes only got 47.9% but Hayes won the EC 185 to 184 for Tilden and thus Hayes won the Presidency
With that latest Siena College/NYT Montana Poll the Nightmare scenario becomes ever more plausible.
Trump won Montana by 21 points. The Siena poll puts Biden with 6. On UNS Biden should only be within 12.
If Trump wins it will be with Biden coming pointlessly close in numerous Deep Red states.
This is my main concern in regards the National Vote vs the State Voting. That Biden is getting closer in states that dont matter and hence the high National Poll lead. Getting closer in Texas, Georgia, Montana and even Alaska isnt going to help him much.
I also noticed a couple of new polls on 538 from either low rated or non rated pollsters but all the same very favourable to Trump
Basswood Research (rated B/C) have Arizona a tie (though the poll is from early Oct) Zia Poll (rated C/D but much more recent polling) have Trump +4 in Michigan
So though the trend's the friend rather than odd polls thats now two more polling companies adding to the narrative being built by Trafalgar and Rasmussen. (and IBD to a lesser extent)
The Zia poll has half as many African Americans as live in the state.
@IshmaelZ if you continue to be rude to me, I will disengage as I don't talk to bullies, so up to you whether you want to apologise and we can have a conversation or I will ignore you in future.
Have just seen what Patel tweeted. Hahahahahaha - she really is an utter moron.
PB Tories already ignored it. Imagine if Dianne Abbott had tweeted the same
It's not ignoring it, it's more out of respect for Mike, PBers as a general rule err on the side of caution when it comes to something that might get Mike into trouble.
See how PB as a general rule avoided the Alex Salmond stuff from the moment he was charged until the actual trial.
Can see (and share I think) CHB's point about substance, however agree more with TSE's regarding prudence re: niceties (and not-so-niceties) of British libel law.
At least until OGH is willing & able to set up shop in the Bedfordshire Free State or East Cornwall Co-Prosperity Sphere.
This "get Mike into trouble" meme is a bit weird, though. Being merely the site owner, in English law OGH's full and perfectly adequate response to any claim for defamation, contempt, whatever appearing below the line is to say "That wasn't me, that was some randomer posting as APBPoster. Here's his email, here's his IP address, have a nice day."
With that latest Siena College/NYT Montana Poll the Nightmare scenario becomes ever more plausible.
Trump won Montana by 21 points. The Siena poll puts Biden with 6. On UNS Biden should only be within 12.
If Trump wins it will be with Biden coming pointlessly close in numerous Deep Red states.
Combined with landslide Biden wins in California and New York and a closer result in Texas while Trump scrapes home in Michigan, Florida, Iowa and Arizona and North Carolina to narrowly win the EC even despite being 3-4% behind Biden in the national popular vote
Yes, Biden only has a 47% chance of winning the electoral college if he's 3% ahead but apparently has a 90%+ chance if he's 6% ahead.
Psychologically it's still feels hard to see Biden losing the electoral college though if he gets anything over 50% though as opposed to the 48.4% and 48.2% that Gore and Clinton got.
Though remember in the 1876 election the Democratic candidate Tilden got 50.9% of the national popular vote and the GOP candidate Hayes only got 47.9% but Hayes won the EC 185 to 184 for Tilden and thus Hayes won the Presidency
Worth reading Gore Vidals '1876' if you want to be reassured 'stolen' elections aren't anything new
Nice to see one or two people finally getting the point about Biden's performance in the deep Red states - better late than never
Onto the evening (or should that be morning) updates. Conflicting polls in Florida with a St Pete Polls putting Biden up by two and a Rasmussen poll not surprisingly having Trump up by four. I'm happy for Florida to be in my TCTC column.
Susquehanna have produced an Arizona state poll having Trump by a point 47-46. However, this poll is for the strongly pro-Trump Center for American Greatness and, let me be blunt about this, he who pays the pollster calls the tune so producing a poll that your client wants to see might not be the problem you'd think so this one definitely goes in the bin.
Strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania and Michigan continue with new polls from those states and perhaps the day's most interesting polling is from the deep Red states.
Trump won Montana by 20 in 2016 - one poll last night had the gap down to eight and a Siena poll for the New York Times has Trump up 49-43 confirming a 7% swing to the Democrats which is the same as we saw in both Kansas and Oklahoma state polls yesterday.
Utah's 2016 Presidential campaign was complicated by the presence of Evan McMullin as an Independent - he finished third polling 21.5% Trump beat Clinton by 18 and a new poll conducted by Scott Rasmussen has Trump leading 50-38 so a 3% swing to the challenger.
Utah won't be on anyone's target list and neither is West Virginia with its Blue Ridge Mountains and Shenandoah River
The latest poll for local news channel WMOV has Trump leading 58-38 so a 20-point lead but that's a big shift from a 42-point Trump win last time. I make that an 11% swing so we may see the biggest pro-Biden swing in the strongest of Red state strongholds.
England was only created by combining Wessex, Northumbria and Mercia, without Northumbria there is no England
You’re forgetting:
1) East Anglia
2) Eadward the Elder took the title of King of England following his suppression of his cousin’s kingdom of Mercia in 918.
His son Athelstan is generally accepted as the First King of England, without Northumbria then you are just left with Wessex and Mercia, not England
I’m not talking about ‘who is considered’ the first king of England. I’m pointing out that it was both a process and you had forgotten a fairly significant chunk of it.
Just a thought Hyufd, but you would be an awful lot more popular if you admitted when you got something wrong. Especially since you frequently are wrong.
Edward the Elder's charters referred to him as King of the Anglo Saxons not King of the English, that was only under his son as far as I am aware.
I don't come here to be popular, nor do I care if I am not
Have just seen what Patel tweeted. Hahahahahaha - she really is an utter moron.
PB Tories already ignored it. Imagine if Dianne Abbott had tweeted the same
That wouldn’t have added up.
Very good but my point stands, there would have been no "let's be wary" or "I don't know what she said".
For calling out double standards I am basically called a troll and then people are rude to me. There's no need for it.
I really think this site has gone to the pits in the last week or so, with at least two users being pretty objectionable to me and others and I am starting to honestly consider whether I will delete my account and not post in future. Not there yet but I will consider it.
Have just seen what Patel tweeted. Hahahahahaha - she really is an utter moron.
PB Tories already ignored it. Imagine if Dianne Abbott had tweeted the same
It's not ignoring it, it's more out of respect for Mike, PBers as a general rule err on the side of caution when it comes to something that might get Mike into trouble.
See how PB as a general rule avoided the Alex Salmond stuff from the moment he was charged until the actual trial.
Can see (and share I think) CHB's point about substance, however agree more with TSE's regarding prudence re: niceties (and not-so-niceties) of British libel law.
At least until OGH is willing & able to set up shop in the Bedfordshire Free State or East Cornwall Co-Prosperity Sphere.
This "get Mike into trouble" meme is a bit weird, though. Being merely the site owner, in English law OGH's full and perfectly adequate response to any claim for defamation, contempt, whatever appearing below the line is to say "That wasn't me, that was some randomer posting as APBPoster. Here's his email, here's his IP address, have a nice day."
Ooh, can we discuss superinjunctions (not that there are any) at our own risk, now, then?
Why do all those UK freedom lovers not quite ancient enough to remember what WWII was actually like hearken back fondly to this period of extreme government control?
To be fair to Maureen the Dingle, she was alive during the Blitz.
But too young to remember the suspension of democracy, blackout, rationing, conscription (civilian & military), censorship, control of the media, forced evacuation and internment obvs.
Nice to see one or two people finally getting the point about Biden's performance in the deep Red states - better late than never
Onto the evening (or should that be morning) updates. Conflicting polls in Florida with a St Pete Polls putting Biden up by two and a Rasmussen poll not surprisingly having Trump up by four. I'm happy for Florida to be in my TCTC column.
Susquehanna have produced an Arizona state poll having Trump by a point 47-46. However, this poll is for the strongly pro-Trump Center for American Greatness and, let me be blunt about this, he who pays the pollster calls the tune so producing a poll that your client wants to see might not be the problem you'd think so this one definitely goes in the bin.
Strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania and Michigan continue with new polls from those states and perhaps the day's most interesting polling is from the deep Red states.
Trump won Montana by 20 in 2016 - one poll last night had the gap down to eight and a Siena poll for the New York Times has Trump up 49-43 confirming a 7% swing to the Democrats which is the same as we saw in both Kansas and Oklahoma state polls yesterday.
Utah's 2016 Presidential campaign was complicated by the presence of Evan McMullin as an Independent - he finished third polling 21.5% Trump beat Clinton by 18 and a new poll conducted by Scott Rasmussen has Trump leading 50-38 so a 3% swing to the challenger.
Utah won't be on anyone's target list and neither is West Virginia with its Blue Ridge Mountains and Shenandoah River
The latest poll for local news channel WMOV has Trump leading 58-38 so a 20-point lead but that's a big shift from a 42-point Trump win last time. I make that an 11% swing so we may see the biggest pro-Biden swing in the strongest of Red state strongholds.
Have just seen what Patel tweeted. Hahahahahaha - she really is an utter moron.
PB Tories already ignored it. Imagine if Dianne Abbott had tweeted the same
It's not ignoring it, it's more out of respect for Mike, PBers as a general rule err on the side of caution when it comes to something that might get Mike into trouble.
See how PB as a general rule avoided the Alex Salmond stuff from the moment he was charged until the actual trial.
Can see (and share I think) CHB's point about substance, however agree more with TSE's regarding prudence re: niceties (and not-so-niceties) of British libel law.
At least until OGH is willing & able to set up shop in the Bedfordshire Free State or East Cornwall Co-Prosperity Sphere.
This "get Mike into trouble" meme is a bit weird, though. Being merely the site owner, in English law OGH's full and perfectly adequate response to any claim for defamation, contempt, whatever appearing below the line is to say "That wasn't me, that was some randomer posting as APBPoster. Here's his email, here's his IP address, have a nice day."
Ooh, can we discuss superinjunctions (not that there are any) at our own risk, now, then?
Have just seen what Patel tweeted. Hahahahahaha - she really is an utter moron.
PB Tories already ignored it. Imagine if Dianne Abbott had tweeted the same
It's not ignoring it, it's more out of respect for Mike, PBers as a general rule err on the side of caution when it comes to something that might get Mike into trouble.
I was about to comment that inviting people to comment on a tweet that is not apparent in a trial that is sub judice is the height of irresponsibility
I am pleased that you have asserted much the same
The height of irresponsibility was Patel's tweet.
If she had any sense of honour or decency she'd resign.
Why is it most PBers know not to comment like that on a trial, but the Secretary of State for the Home Department does not?
If she had any honour, like all members of Johnson's government, she would not be in the position to start with.
A really striking difference in voting numbers. Is it something that happens here?
Back in 2012-14 there was a bit of a gender gap when it came to Scottish independence.
Women were much more reticent to back independence than men.
One thing that I have noticed in UK polling is that Women are twice as likely as men to be undecided, but do turn out on the day, breaking more for Labour.
In polling I've seen over decades, very typical for women to be more undecided than men, whatever the jurisdiction or the election.
The tendency to see parties akin to sports teams that you support come what may is perhaps one with a gender bias to it.
Interesting point, though do NOT think that is real X factor in this particular gender gap, as it also occurs in less- or totally non-partisan elections.
AND based on my own observations, think increasing numbers of women (at least in US) are sports fans AND loyal to their favorite teams.
One small point of evidence: check out King Co Elections webcam for their Election Services Center, which directly assists voters in person. One of the workers helping voters is wearing her Seattle Seahawks jersey.
For today is Blue Friday for "the 12s" before this Sunday's NFL game between Seattle (5-0) and Arizona Cardinals (4-2)
Go Hawks!
I'm playing Metcalfe in my flex spot this week. Did you see Daniel Jones' drive from last night ?
TK Metcalf is indeed one of the secrets to Seahawk's success (best start since they won Superbowl) so far this season. Along with the Rodney Dangerfield of American Football, Russell Wilson.
As for Daniel Jones, did NOT see last night's game, and upon checking what happened, am sorry for him.
But NOT for the NY Jets. For one thing, sick of "Broadway Joe" Namath clogging my TV screen trying to sell me medicare supplemental insurance!
Why do all those UK freedom lovers not quite ancient enough to remember what WWII was actually like hearken back fondly to this period of extreme government control?
Have just seen what Patel tweeted. Hahahahahaha - she really is an utter moron.
PB Tories already ignored it. Imagine if Dianne Abbott had tweeted the same
It's not ignoring it, it's more out of respect for Mike, PBers as a general rule err on the side of caution when it comes to something that might get Mike into trouble.
See how PB as a general rule avoided the Alex Salmond stuff from the moment he was charged until the actual trial.
Can see (and share I think) CHB's point about substance, however agree more with TSE's regarding prudence re: niceties (and not-so-niceties) of British libel law.
At least until OGH is willing & able to set up shop in the Bedfordshire Free State or East Cornwall Co-Prosperity Sphere.
This "get Mike into trouble" meme is a bit weird, though. Being merely the site owner, in English law OGH's full and perfectly adequate response to any claim for defamation, contempt, whatever appearing below the line is to say "That wasn't me, that was some randomer posting as APBPoster. Here's his email, here's his IP address, have a nice day."
Ooh, can we discuss superinjunctions (not that there are any) at our own risk, now, then?
Is that the ban hammer I hear being warmed up.
He was rash in opening up the site to risk like that, but a ban would be rather harsh IMO
Why do all those UK freedom lovers not quite ancient enough to remember what WWII was actually like hearken back fondly to this period of extreme government control?
Johnson is going to do a Father Christmas tribute act and grant everyone a three day reprieve over Xmas. Indoor mingling and expanded rule of 12. Costs in terms of extra hospitalisations and deaths will be less than the benefits in terms of morale and mental health (and gratitude to Father Johnson).
Why do all those UK freedom lovers not quite ancient enough to remember what WWII was actually like hearken back fondly to this period of extreme government control?
To be fair to Maureen the Dingle, she was alive during the Blitz.
But too young to remember the suspension of democracy, blackout, rationing, conscription (civilian & military), censorship, control of the media, forced evacuation and internment obvs.
As one of my school teachers liked to remind his pupils, rationing did not end with WWII, but in the mid 1950s, a decade after WWII.
Why do all those UK freedom lovers not quite ancient enough to remember what WWII was actually like hearken back fondly to this period of extreme government control?
Why do all those UK freedom lovers not quite ancient enough to remember what WWII was actually like hearken back fondly to this period of extreme government control?
To be fair to Maureen the Dingle, she was alive during the Blitz.
But too young to remember the suspension of democracy, blackout, rationing, conscription (civilian & military), censorship, control of the media, forced evacuation and internment obvs.
(Highly likely biased) fieldwork 3 fucking weeks ago !
The Susquehanna poll showing Trump ahead in Arizona is for the Center for American Greatness, a staunchly pro-Trump conservative blog.
We are now seeing the next stage of Republican/conservative electoral tactics - disinformation by tweet claiming the Democrat campaign is "in trouble" and polls published suggesting Trump still has a chance and the race is a lot closer in the marginal states.
As some on here have shown, it's easy to show the issues with these polls but the Trump campaign is relying on its supporters and fellow-travellers in conservative circles to spread the "word" and issue spurious claims that somehow Trump can still win this.
Of course, the ghost of 2016 still haunts this campaign and will dominate the final days. There will be those who relentlessly reference the polling of last time but looking at the plethora of national polls in the final two weeks most had the race very close with Clinton up by 1-3 points (the USC polls for the LA Times were the only ones putting Trump ahead) and a few pro-Clinton outliers but the race had closed appreciably by this time in the 2016 campaign.
I have Biden ahead 284-163 with Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, Maine CD-2 and Ohio TCTC.
(Highly likely biased) fieldwork 3 fucking weeks ago !
The Susquehanna poll showing Trump ahead in Arizona is for the Center for American Greatness, a staunchly pro-Trump conservative blog.
We are now seeing the next stage of Republican/conservative electoral tactics - disinformation by tweet claiming the Democrat campaign is "in trouble" and polls published suggesting Trump still has a chance and the race is a lot closer in the marginal states.
As some on here have shown, it's easy to show the issues with these polls but the Trump campaign is relying on its supporters and fellow-travellers in conservative circles to spread the "word" and issue spurious claims that somehow Trump can still win this.
Of course, the ghost of 2016 still haunts this campaign and will dominate the final days. There will be those who relentlessly reference the polling of last time but looking at the plethora of national polls in the final two weeks most had the race very close with Clinton up by 1-3 points (the USC polls for the LA Times were the only ones putting Trump ahead) and a few pro-Clinton outliers but the race had closed appreciably by this time in the 2016 campaign.
I have Biden ahead 284-163 with Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, Maine CD-2 and Ohio TCTC.
Except Trump can still win this, even with the Siena poll on thread Biden is only up 2% on what Hillary got in 2016 with 6% undecided, there has been barely any movement at all from Trump to Biden, just Others to Biden mainly
PB Tories no comment at all, I wonder how quick they would be on it if it was a Labour MP
First, I don't think there are any PB Tories any more. Secondly, nobody knows what this is about and you are not allowed to tell us. Thirdly, what the story is truly about is the pompous idiocy of the jury system. OT1H the randomers on the jury are supposed to have the intelligence, integrity, independence and soundness of judgment to convict defendants, or not, on charges which can lead to life imprisonment. OTO, if we have an instance of Priti being a twat on twitter, the option of saying "You probably never saw this but if you did it's just Priti being a twat on twitter, ignore it and carry on" is not available, because it seems jurors lack the intelligence, integrity, independence and soundness of judgment to understand and follow that advice. So which is it?
Imagine Dianne Abbott had said the same thing. Would you be saying the same thing, of course not.
And no more PB Tories? Hahahahaha
I don't know what "the same thing" is, you absolute beneficiary of my unwavering policy of never in any circumstances calling other people morons on the internet.
There’s no need to be rude.
I am talking about Priti Patel’s Tweet.
Well, the remark I was replying to suggested I was A. a PB Tory and B. applying double standards to a question, so if there's no need to be rude I assume you are doing it just for the hell of it.
Again: I do not know what Patel's tweet said. This is because the tweet has been deleted, as I understand it, as being potentially in contempt of court, and nobody is allowed to tell me what it said without also being potentially in contempt of court. Clear now?
I never said or suggested you were a PB Tory. You replied to a post not directed at you and even then I never said you were one. So first of all you're wrong.
With that latest Siena College/NYT Montana Poll the Nightmare scenario becomes ever more plausible.
Trump won Montana by 21 points. The Siena poll puts Biden with 6. On UNS Biden should only be within 12.
If Trump wins it will be with Biden coming pointlessly close in numerous Deep Red states.
Combined with landslide Biden wins in California and New York and a closer result in Texas while Trump scrapes home in Michigan, Florida, Iowa and Arizona and North Carolina to narrowly win the EC even despite being 3-4% behind Biden in the national popular vote
Yes, Biden only has a 47% chance of winning the electoral college if he's 3% ahead but apparently has a 90%+ chance if he's 6% ahead.
Psychologically it's still feels hard to see Biden losing the electoral college though if he gets anything over 50% though as opposed to the 48.4% and 48.2% that Gore and Clinton got.
Though remember in the 1876 election the Democratic candidate Tilden got 50.9% of the national popular vote and the GOP candidate Hayes only got 47.9% but Hayes won the EC 185 to 184 for Tilden and thus Hayes won the Presidency
Worth reading Gore Vidals '1876' if you want to be reassured 'stolen' elections aren't anything new
Though there WAS a fair amount of vote suppression that year against Black Republican freedmen in former Confederate states, perpetrated by KKK and other Trumpsky predecessors.
Countered (successfully as it turned out) by creative electoral accounting in Florida, South Carolina and especially Louisiana to make up for the Blacks (also White scalliwags and carpetbaggers) murdered, run-off or otherwise removed from the voting rolls.
PB Tories no comment at all, I wonder how quick they would be on it if it was a Labour MP
First, I don't think there are any PB Tories any more. Secondly, nobody knows what this is about and you are not allowed to tell us. Thirdly, what the story is truly about is the pompous idiocy of the jury system. OT1H the randomers on the jury are supposed to have the intelligence, integrity, independence and soundness of judgment to convict defendants, or not, on charges which can lead to life imprisonment. OTO, if we have an instance of Priti being a twat on twitter, the option of saying "You probably never saw this but if you did it's just Priti being a twat on twitter, ignore it and carry on" is not available, because it seems jurors lack the intelligence, integrity, independence and soundness of judgment to understand and follow that advice. So which is it?
Imagine Dianne Abbott had said the same thing. Would you be saying the same thing, of course not.
And no more PB Tories? Hahahahaha
I don't know what "the same thing" is, you absolute beneficiary of my unwavering policy of never in any circumstances calling other people morons on the internet.
There’s no need to be rude.
I am talking about Priti Patel’s Tweet.
Well, the remark I was replying to suggested I was A. a PB Tory and B. applying double standards to a question, so if there's no need to be rude I assume you are doing it just for the hell of it.
Again: I do not know what Patel's tweet said. This is because the tweet has been deleted, as I understand it, as being potentially in contempt of court, and nobody is allowed to tell me what it said without also being potentially in contempt of court. Clear now?
I never said or suggested you were a PB Tory. You replied to a post not directed at you and even then I never said you were one. So first of all you're wrong.
Bad data from the US (CNN): Thursday was the highest day for new infections since July 24 and the day with the fourth highest total ever, at 71,671, Johns Hopkins says.
More than 41,000 people were hospitalized across the country, according to the Covid Tracking Project. This is the highest level of nationwide hospitalizations since Aug 20.
and with thanksgiving looming, analysis suggests family gatherings and house parties are already the principal mode of transmission in most states
Why do all those UK freedom lovers not quite ancient enough to remember what WWII was actually like hearken back fondly to this period of extreme government control?
To be fair to Maureen the Dingle, she was alive during the Blitz.
The Emergency Powers Act passed on 22nd May 1940 is arguably the most draconian piece of legislation ever passed in terms of taking power from the citizen and giving it to the Government.
Why do all those UK freedom lovers not quite ancient enough to remember what WWII was actually like hearken back fondly to this period of extreme government control?
We also have this interesting offering from Painter Communications showing Trump up by four in Michigan.
The company is run by one Denise Painter, who worked for Lee Atwater when he was chairman of the Republican National Committee.
Another one for the bin...
He overegged it a bit, didn't he. If he'd called it a tie he might not have been so easily rumbled. He needs to chat to Mr Cahaly at Trafalgar, who knows how to keep his fictions within the limits of plausibility.
Why do all those UK freedom lovers not quite ancient enough to remember what WWII was actually like hearken back fondly to this period of extreme government control?
We also have this interesting offering from Painter Communications showing Trump up by four in Michigan.
The company is run by one Denise Painter, who worked for Lee Atwater when he was chairman of the Republican National Committee.
Another one for the bin...
He overegged it a bit, didn't he. If he'd called it a tie he might not have been so easily rumbled. He needs to chat to Mr Cahaly at Trafalgar, who knows how to keep his fictions within the limits of plausibility.
In 2016 it was Trafalgar who had correctly predicted the reality that Trump would win Michigan unlike a single other pollster
Nice to see one or two people finally getting the point about Biden's performance in the deep Red states - better late than never
Onto the evening (or should that be morning) updates. Conflicting polls in Florida with a St Pete Polls putting Biden up by two and a Rasmussen poll not surprisingly having Trump up by four. I'm happy for Florida to be in my TCTC column.
Susquehanna have produced an Arizona state poll having Trump by a point 47-46. However, this poll is for the strongly pro-Trump Center for American Greatness and, let me be blunt about this, he who pays the pollster calls the tune so producing a poll that your client wants to see might not be the problem you'd think so this one definitely goes in the bin.
Strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania and Michigan continue with new polls from those states and perhaps the day's most interesting polling is from the deep Red states.
Trump won Montana by 20 in 2016 - one poll last night had the gap down to eight and a Siena poll for the New York Times has Trump up 49-43 confirming a 7% swing to the Democrats which is the same as we saw in both Kansas and Oklahoma state polls yesterday.
Utah's 2016 Presidential campaign was complicated by the presence of Evan McMullin as an Independent - he finished third polling 21.5% Trump beat Clinton by 18 and a new poll conducted by Scott Rasmussen has Trump leading 50-38 so a 3% swing to the challenger.
Utah won't be on anyone's target list and neither is West Virginia with its Blue Ridge Mountains and Shenandoah River
The latest poll for local news channel WMOV has Trump leading 58-38 so a 20-point lead but that's a big shift from a 42-point Trump win last time. I make that an 11% swing so we may see the biggest pro-Biden swing in the strongest of Red state strongholds.
Thanks for that Stodge. Just a quick question - you mentioned you are suspicious about polls where he who pays the piper calls the tune. I take it then we can ignore polls commissioned by the likes of the Washington Post and New York Times then....?
We also have this interesting offering from Painter Communications showing Trump up by four in Michigan.
The company is run by one Denise Painter, who worked for Lee Atwater when he was chairman of the Republican National Committee.
Another one for the bin...
He overegged it a bit, didn't he. If he'd called it a tie he might not have been so easily rumbled. He needs to chat to Mr Cahaly at Trafalgar, who knows how to keep his fictions within the limits of plausibility.
So this flurry of 'new ' pollsters are Cahalys poker chums? Just imagine if 538 weighted every pollster the same,,,Trump would be ,,,+10 in California now
Have just seen what Patel tweeted. Hahahahahaha - she really is an utter moron.
PB Tories already ignored it. Imagine if Dianne Abbott had tweeted the same
It's not ignoring it, it's more out of respect for Mike, PBers as a general rule err on the side of caution when it comes to something that might get Mike into trouble.
See how PB as a general rule avoided the Alex Salmond stuff from the moment he was charged until the actual trial.
Can see (and share I think) CHB's point about substance, however agree more with TSE's regarding prudence re: niceties (and not-so-niceties) of British libel law.
At least until OGH is willing & able to set up shop in the Bedfordshire Free State or East Cornwall Co-Prosperity Sphere.
This "get Mike into trouble" meme is a bit weird, though. Being merely the site owner, in English law OGH's full and perfectly adequate response to any claim for defamation, contempt, whatever appearing below the line is to say "That wasn't me, that was some randomer posting as APBPoster. Here's his email, here's his IP address, have a nice day."
There's been a fair amount of case law on this in the last 15 years.
Why do all those UK freedom lovers not quite ancient enough to remember what WWII was actually like hearken back fondly to this period of extreme government control?
(Highly likely biased) fieldwork 3 fucking weeks ago !
The Susquehanna poll showing Trump ahead in Arizona is for the Center for American Greatness, a staunchly pro-Trump conservative blog.
We are now seeing the next stage of Republican/conservative electoral tactics - disinformation by tweet claiming the Democrat campaign is "in trouble" and polls published suggesting Trump still has a chance and the race is a lot closer in the marginal states.
As some on here have shown, it's easy to show the issues with these polls but the Trump campaign is relying on its supporters and fellow-travellers in conservative circles to spread the "word" and issue spurious claims that somehow Trump can still win this.
Of course, the ghost of 2016 still haunts this campaign and will dominate the final days. There will be those who relentlessly reference the polling of last time but looking at the plethora of national polls in the final two weeks most had the race very close with Clinton up by 1-3 points (the USC polls for the LA Times were the only ones putting Trump ahead) and a few pro-Clinton outliers but the race had closed appreciably by this time in the 2016 campaign.
I have Biden ahead 284-163 with Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, Maine CD-2 and Ohio TCTC.
Is the point to motivate Republican voters, or to try to create a narrative of narrowing polls to explain away a Trump win on the back of massive electoral fraud?
It is almost inevitable that now until polling day there will be daily revelations about what has happened.
Worryingly for Biden, no-one appears to be denying the basic story that millions of dollars were paid to Hunter and friends for 'consultancy services' over the past few years, from various overseas sources in Ukraine, Russia and China.
We also have this interesting offering from Painter Communications showing Trump up by four in Michigan.
The company is run by one Denise Painter, who worked for Lee Atwater when he was chairman of the Republican National Committee.
Another one for the bin...
He overegged it a bit, didn't he. If he'd called it a tie he might not have been so easily rumbled. He needs to chat to Mr Cahaly at Trafalgar, who knows how to keep his fictions within the limits of plausibility.
In 2016 it was Trafalgar who had correctly predicted the reality that Trump would win Michigan unlike a single other pollster
The high level of early voting has led Michael McDonald, the University of Florida professor who administers the US Elections Project, to predict a record turnout of about 150m, 65% of eligible voters, the highest since 1908.
In Texas, voting has already surpassed 70% of the total turnout in 2016.
PB Tories no comment at all, I wonder how quick they would be on it if it was a Labour MP
First, I don't think there are any PB Tories any more. Secondly, nobody knows what this is about and you are not allowed to tell us. Thirdly, what the story is truly about is the pompous idiocy of the jury system. OT1H the randomers on the jury are supposed to have the intelligence, integrity, independence and soundness of judgment to convict defendants, or not, on charges which can lead to life imprisonment. OTO, if we have an instance of Priti being a twat on twitter, the option of saying "You probably never saw this but if you did it's just Priti being a twat on twitter, ignore it and carry on" is not available, because it seems jurors lack the intelligence, integrity, independence and soundness of judgment to understand and follow that advice. So which is it?
Imagine Dianne Abbott had said the same thing. Would you be saying the same thing, of course not.
And no more PB Tories? Hahahahaha
I don't know what "the same thing" is, you absolute beneficiary of my unwavering policy of never in any circumstances calling other people morons on the internet.
There’s no need to be rude.
I am talking about Priti Patel’s Tweet.
Well, the remark I was replying to suggested I was A. a PB Tory and B. applying double standards to a question, so if there's no need to be rude I assume you are doing it just for the hell of it.
Again: I do not know what Patel's tweet said. This is because the tweet has been deleted, as I understand it, as being potentially in contempt of court, and nobody is allowed to tell me what it said without also being potentially in contempt of court. Clear now?
I never said or suggested you were a PB Tory. You replied to a post not directed at you and even then I never said you were one. So first of all you're wrong.
How long before the results of the Welsh lockdown might be known? A week or two?
Not that simple.
All Wales lockdown ends on the 9th but about two thirds of the population was already in local lockdown and almost certainly most of these still will be for several weeks post the 9th.
So till today pubs were open in Cardiff till 22.00 each night and you could meet people in a garden but not indoors. All retail was open ( with distancing arrangements ) but you couldn’t travel outside your county boundary without good reason.
Now all but “essential” retail is shut ( see my despairing comments through the day on this nonsense), pubs etc are shut, and you can’t meet people even outside. Travel still banned. This latter state lasts ( in so far as we know) till Nov 9.
It is almost inevitable that now until polling day there will be daily revelations about what has happened.
Worryingly for Biden, no-one appears to be denying the basic story that millions of dollars were paid to Hunter and friends for 'consultancy services' over the past few years, from various overseas sources in Ukraine, Russia and China.
They tried, it was "Russian disinformation" apparently...until the FBI came out and said it wasn't.
Why do all those UK freedom lovers not quite ancient enough to remember what WWII was actually like hearken back fondly to this period of extreme government control?
To be fair to Maureen the Dingle, she was alive during the Blitz.
I would be skeptical over how many times she came out of the shelter and headed off to work, though. What with being 3 years old at the time, and all.
Didn't she claim that she and her husband had had symptoms of COVID-19? If you are in your 80s, have had it, and not been seriously ill or died, then you may just have a little bit of survivorship bias going on. She reminds me of the dopes who have smoked all their life and gotten away with it, it doesn't mean that smoking is a good idea.
We also have this interesting offering from Painter Communications showing Trump up by four in Michigan.
The company is run by one Denise Painter, who worked for Lee Atwater when he was chairman of the Republican National Committee.
Another one for the bin...
He overegged it a bit, didn't he. If he'd called it a tie he might not have been so easily rumbled. He needs to chat to Mr Cahaly at Trafalgar, who knows how to keep his fictions within the limits of plausibility.
So this flurry of 'new ' pollsters are Cahalys poker chums? Just imagine if 538 weighted every pollster the same,,,Trump would be ,,,+10 in California now
My guess is that Trumpsky is making burnt offerings on a nightly basis to the Ghost of Lee Atwater, summing up his foul spirit from the depths of Hell to offer counsel and say sooth . . .
At rate things are going, will start upping the ante via human sacrifice of wise men and pure virgins.
Unfortunately for Team Evil, these already scare commodities are totally unavailable currently at White House & RNC.
We also have this interesting offering from Painter Communications showing Trump up by four in Michigan.
The company is run by one Denise Painter, who worked for Lee Atwater when he was chairman of the Republican National Committee.
Another one for the bin...
We really need an American Polling Council, now we have political operatives running 'polls' with no data published except the favourable headline figures.
It is almost inevitable that now until polling day there will be daily revelations about what has happened.
Worryingly for Biden, no-one appears to be denying the basic story that millions of dollars were paid to Hunter and friends for 'consultancy services' over the past few years, from various overseas sources in Ukraine, Russia and China.
They tried, it was "Russian disinformation" apparently...until the FBI came out and said it wasn't.
Perhaps PBers can put new life into this "scandal"? Where combined efforts of White House, RNC, Rupert Murdock, etc, etc have totally failed?
Thanks for that Stodge. Just a quick question - you mentioned you are suspicious about polls where he who pays the piper calls the tune. I take it then we can ignore polls commissioned by the likes of the Washington Post and New York Times then....?
I'm sure there are pro-Democrat pollsters though I note both the ABC News/Washington Post and the New York Times/Siena polls are rated A+ by 538 despite the pro-Democrat bias of the former and the pro-Republican bias of the latter.
The polls about which I'm most sceptical are those commissioned either directly for pro-Trump blogs like the Center for American Greatness or those from little-known polling organisations which just happen to be run by former Republican activists.
I'm sure if the former commissions a poll they won't be keen to publish one which was bad for Trump and good for Biden and we all know with the right sampling you can get the result for which your client will be looking.
Comments
Psychologically it's still feels hard to see Biden losing the electoral college though if he gets anything over 50% though as opposed to the 48.4% and 48.2% that Gore and Clinton got.
I am talking about Priti Patel’s Tweet.
I am pleased that you have asserted much the same
1) East Anglia
2) Eadward the Elder took the title of King of England following his suppression of his cousin’s kingdom of Mercia in 918.
An angry Azar floats plans to oust FDA’s Hahn
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/22/azar-plans-oust-hahn-fda-431139
Edward the Elder took the title of King of the Anglo Saxons rather than King of England as such
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1319342959062622210?s=20
Which is why it won’t be for two weeks.
At least until OGH is willing & able to set up shop in the Bedfordshire Free State or East Cornwall Co-Prosperity Sphere.
If she had any sense of honour or decency she'd resign.
Why is it most PBers know not to comment like that on a trial, but the Secretary of State for the Home Department does not?
Again: I do not know what Patel's tweet said. This is because the tweet has been deleted, as I understand it, as being potentially in contempt of court, and nobody is allowed to tell me what it said without also being potentially in contempt of court. Clear now?
Ends on the 9th November when my carpet fitters are allowed back into my home
Just a thought Hyufd, but you would be an awful lot more popular if you admitted when you got something wrong. Especially since you frequently are wrong.
Nicola’s thought police seem to be everywhere.
Anyway, my iPad’s battery is exhausted, and so am I. Have a good evening.
I don't know what on Earth your problem is buddy.
And the ones it does have split 50/50 Biden/Trump
Nice to see one or two people finally getting the point about Biden's performance in the deep Red states - better late than never
Onto the evening (or should that be morning) updates. Conflicting polls in Florida with a St Pete Polls putting Biden up by two and a Rasmussen poll not surprisingly having Trump up by four. I'm happy for Florida to be in my TCTC column.
Susquehanna have produced an Arizona state poll having Trump by a point 47-46. However, this poll is for the strongly pro-Trump Center for American Greatness and, let me be blunt about this, he who pays the pollster calls the tune so producing a poll that your client wants to see might not be the problem you'd think so this one definitely goes in the bin.
Strong Biden leads in Pennsylvania and Michigan continue with new polls from those states and perhaps the day's most interesting polling is from the deep Red states.
Trump won Montana by 20 in 2016 - one poll last night had the gap down to eight and a Siena poll for the New York Times has Trump up 49-43 confirming a 7% swing to the Democrats which is the same as we saw in both Kansas and Oklahoma state polls yesterday.
Utah's 2016 Presidential campaign was complicated by the presence of Evan McMullin as an Independent - he finished third polling 21.5% Trump beat Clinton by 18 and a new poll conducted by Scott Rasmussen has Trump leading 50-38 so a 3% swing to the challenger.
https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/10/22/21528825/news-poll-utahns-concerned-election-results-being-accepted-by-trump-biden-hinckley
Utah won't be on anyone's target list and neither is West Virginia with its Blue Ridge Mountains and Shenandoah River
The latest poll for local news channel WMOV has Trump leading 58-38 so a 20-point lead but that's a big shift from a 42-point Trump win last time. I make that an 11% swing so we may see the biggest pro-Biden swing in the strongest of Red state strongholds.
I don't come here to be popular, nor do I care if I am not
For calling out double standards I am basically called a troll and then people are rude to me. There's no need for it.
I really think this site has gone to the pits in the last week or so, with at least two users being pretty objectionable to me and others and I am starting to honestly consider whether I will delete my account and not post in future. Not there yet but I will consider it.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1319654810531041286?s=20
Also some new polls and today's IBID/TIPP
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1319725425619329024?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1319726925930205186?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1319727300573790211?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1319729309813190659?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1319732684223090688?s=20
As for Daniel Jones, did NOT see last night's game, and upon checking what happened, am sorry for him.
But NOT for the NY Jets. For one thing, sick of "Broadway Joe" Namath clogging my TV screen trying to sell me medicare supplemental insurance!
Not even in Barnsley.
https://twitter.com/GOP/status/1319715289328766980?s=20
Oh did not conscription end in the 1960s?
At one stage Barnsley had more clap clinics than libraries.
We are now seeing the next stage of Republican/conservative electoral tactics - disinformation by tweet claiming the Democrat campaign is "in trouble" and polls published suggesting Trump still has a chance and the race is a lot closer in the marginal states.
As some on here have shown, it's easy to show the issues with these polls but the Trump campaign is relying on its supporters and fellow-travellers in conservative circles to spread the "word" and issue spurious claims that somehow Trump can still win this.
Of course, the ghost of 2016 still haunts this campaign and will dominate the final days. There will be those who relentlessly reference the polling of last time but looking at the plethora of national polls in the final two weeks most had the race very close with Clinton up by 1-3 points (the USC polls for the LA Times were the only ones putting Trump ahead) and a few pro-Clinton outliers but the race had closed appreciably by this time in the 2016 campaign.
I have Biden ahead 284-163 with Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, Maine CD-2 and Ohio TCTC.
Countered (successfully as it turned out) by creative electoral accounting in Florida, South Carolina and especially Louisiana to make up for the Blacks (also White scalliwags and carpetbaggers) murdered, run-off or otherwise removed from the voting rolls.
https://www.americanactionforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Arizona-Policy-Survey-Crosstabs-Oct-2020.pdf
American Polling Companies. Get a grip. Stop using typewriters and photocopiers.
THERE IS OVER 400 PAGES OF THIS NONSENSE
The company is run by one Denise Painter, who worked for Lee Atwater when he was chairman of the Republican National Committee.
Another one for the bin...
gayTory in the villagehttps://www.wsj.com/articles/the-biden-family-legacy-11603409528?mod=djemalertNEWS
It is almost inevitable that now until polling day there will be daily revelations about what has happened.
More than 41,000 people were hospitalized across the country, according to the Covid Tracking Project. This is the highest level of nationwide hospitalizations since Aug 20.
and with thanksgiving looming, analysis suggests family gatherings and house parties are already the principal mode of transmission in most states
What with being 3 years old at the time, and all.
DT really has deteriorated, hasn't it. Used to be that they had someone with half a brain vetting their copy pre-publication.
https://www.scl.org/articles/1015-when-are-web-hosts-liable-for-defamatory-content
https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/echr-ruling-suggests-publishers-liable-for-defamatory-web-comments-as-soon-as-they-appear/
Recent assaults on Facebook etc rely on presumed publisher liability.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1319474905407107075
In Texas, voting has already surpassed 70% of the total turnout in 2016.
All Wales lockdown ends on the 9th but about two thirds of the population was already in local lockdown and almost certainly most of these still will be for several weeks post the 9th.
So till today pubs were open in Cardiff till 22.00 each night and you could meet people in a garden but not indoors. All retail was open ( with distancing arrangements ) but you couldn’t travel outside your county boundary without good reason.
Now all but “essential” retail is shut ( see my despairing comments through the day on this nonsense), pubs etc are shut, and you can’t meet people even outside. Travel still banned. This latter state lasts ( in so far as we know) till Nov 9.
At rate things are going, will start upping the ante via human sacrifice of wise men and pure virgins.
Unfortunately for Team Evil, these already scare commodities are totally unavailable currently at White House & RNC.
Don't bet on it!
The polls about which I'm most sceptical are those commissioned either directly for pro-Trump blogs like the Center for American Greatness or those from little-known polling organisations which just happen to be run by former Republican activists.
I'm sure if the former commissions a poll they won't be keen to publish one which was bad for Trump and good for Biden and we all know with the right sampling you can get the result for which your client will be looking.